Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 38 - Featuring Bill Barnwell

Transcript

The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 38 - Featuring Bill Barnwell · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:02
Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side
0:07
Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.
0:10
Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when
0:14
Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's
0:17
Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the buffet with
0:26
Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy a buffet.
0:31
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Buffet with Chad and Scooch. I
0:34
Speaker 1: am Chad Moment from the Action Network on the phone
0:37
Speaker 1: with me from the Orleans, representing all the board gaming
0:40
Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and across the country.
0:47
Speaker 1: Ever inching closer to becoming bookmaker to the world, Mr
0:52
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, How you doing, Scooch? I'm good? How are you?
0:55
Speaker 1: I'm good. We have a very special guest on the show.
0:57
Speaker 1: Did a huge, huge special guest, Bill Barnwell, NFL columnist
1:04
Speaker 1: for ESPN dot com. He has a story leading the
1:07
Speaker 1: site right now, possibly the smartest NFL writer um in
1:13
Speaker 1: the country, bringing together analysis and data and narrative and
1:19
Speaker 1: film study in a very unique voice, all into one
1:24
Speaker 1: nifty package. Bill Barnwell, how are you? Tremendous introduction Now
1:28
Speaker 1: I gotta live up to that though, I'm not sure
1:30
Speaker 1: I can pull that off. You don't have to do
1:32
Speaker 1: it all at once. You can do it over the
1:34
Speaker 1: course of the seasons. Hey Bill, how are you great?
1:41
Speaker 1: I'm excited to talk about some NFL action. Looking forward
1:46
Speaker 1: to it. Well, that's what we're gonna do today. So uh,
1:49
Speaker 1: NFL preseason kicks off in Earnest over the next twenty
1:52
Speaker 1: four hours. Um, I've already made I've already made two
1:57
Speaker 1: bets on the NFL preseason scooter. I've actually I've already made.
2:03
Speaker 1: My first bet of the year was on the Bears
2:08
Speaker 1: Ravens total. It was thirty two and a half when
2:11
Speaker 1: I got it. I got it. I got as they
2:14
Speaker 1: say in the biz, because I'm a sharp scooch. You
2:17
Speaker 1: know this I do. You got to get the best
2:20
Speaker 1: of the number, right, and uh, I got that total
2:24
Speaker 1: at thirty two and a half. It closed at thirty five.
2:29
Speaker 1: The game landed on thirty three. All right, So I
2:33
Speaker 1: got it. I got it. I wanted my bet. It's
2:37
Speaker 1: a nice way to kick off the season. It's a
2:40
Speaker 1: great way to kick off the season. Nice use of
2:41
Speaker 1: the pun And all I was thinking was, you know,
2:46
Speaker 1: in the action in in uh, the action app our
2:49
Speaker 1: app that anyone can download. Um, we have this great
2:52
Speaker 1: feature where we have sort of a circle where if
2:57
Speaker 1: you are winning your bet, then the circle is green,
3:00
Speaker 1: and if the bet is sort of fifty fifty, the
3:03
Speaker 1: circle turns orange, and if you are losing your bet,
3:06
Speaker 1: the circle turns red. So for the entire game, my
3:10
Speaker 1: circle was green. Uh, and then towards the middle of
3:14
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter turned to orange. And like when Tyler
3:18
Speaker 1: Bray gets the ball on like the four yard line
3:21
Speaker 1: with four minutes left and the Bears are down by
3:25
Speaker 1: god knows what and I'm losing my bet by less
3:27
Speaker 1: than a touchdown, the circle is like blazing red and
3:32
Speaker 1: I'm like, I can't fucking believe that my first bet
3:35
Speaker 1: of the year and I am sweating this preseason game
3:39
Speaker 1: is coming down to Tyler Bray on a field long
3:43
Speaker 1: drive to to to hit the over. That's that's preseason.
3:51
Speaker 1: I mean I watched everybody in the book. They were
3:54
Speaker 1: clamoring for football for the entire summer after after the
3:58
Speaker 1: NBA stopped and then all they had to been on
4:00
Speaker 1: his baseball. They just couldn't wait for that first preseason game.
4:04
Speaker 1: And uh, and they were in the book doing the
4:06
Speaker 1: exact same thing that you just described. I mean both
4:09
Speaker 1: the total and the side. We're both in play right
4:13
Speaker 1: to the end, so depending on what number you've got,
4:16
Speaker 1: um it turned out to be a pretty good results
4:19
Speaker 1: for the for the book because we had everybody laying
4:22
Speaker 1: two and a half by game time with the Ravens
4:25
Speaker 1: on that one. So, uh, total wasn't too big of
4:29
Speaker 1: a decision, but the side was pretty good for us. Bill.
4:31
Speaker 1: Do you have a theory on betting preseason football? Theory
4:36
Speaker 1: is I probably don't know what I'm talking about, so
4:40
Speaker 1: I try to avoid it beyond I think looking at
4:43
Speaker 1: the same sort of history when it comes to coaches
4:45
Speaker 1: who are giving a significant effort relative to some of
4:49
Speaker 1: the other coaches in the National Football League. Uh So,
4:53
Speaker 1: I am strictly just day let's look at history guy,
4:55
Speaker 1: when it comes to the preseason, I have a hunch.
4:58
Speaker 1: I don't have enough faith that my hunch is very smart. Well,
5:01
Speaker 1: I'm glad you bring that up, because so there's the
5:04
Speaker 1: game on Thursday night. We're recording this podcast on Wednesday afternoon.
5:08
Speaker 1: There's a game Thursday night. The Jets were opened as
5:13
Speaker 1: two point favorites at home against the Falcons. The game
5:16
Speaker 1: I think is now three three and a half. I
5:18
Speaker 1: think that the numbers going up. That's how much money
5:21
Speaker 1: is coming in on the Jets. And my theory is
5:25
Speaker 1: similar to what you just said, which is the Jets
5:30
Speaker 1: kind of need to win even though it's preseason, in
5:34
Speaker 1: that they are a team that is still in disarray,
5:37
Speaker 1: that is trying to figure out who they are, that
5:40
Speaker 1: is playing at home for a football starved crowd, and
5:43
Speaker 1: they need to build optimism enthusiasm both within their ranks
5:47
Speaker 1: but also amongst the fan daise. Whereas there playing a
5:50
Speaker 1: Falcons team where Dan Quinn and Tom Demitrof just signed
5:55
Speaker 1: contract extensions. They have a team in a battery of
5:59
Speaker 1: Whoo Jones and Matt Ryan that is well established and
6:03
Speaker 1: while they're developing still in the offense that Sarkisi and
6:06
Speaker 1: Steve Sarkezi and you know brought in last year, they're
6:10
Speaker 1: in a we don't have to prove anything in the
6:12
Speaker 1: preseason just to work out the kinks phase. So I
6:15
Speaker 1: look at that and I think it's similar to what
6:17
Speaker 1: you're saying about a new coach wanting to win. This
6:20
Speaker 1: is a team that needs to win versus a team
6:21
Speaker 1: that knows what the preseason is for give me your
6:23
Speaker 1: take on that. I think the other thing I'd say
6:26
Speaker 1: here is that you look at the Jets depth chartered quarterback, Well,
6:29
Speaker 1: their first during quarterback is Teddy Bridgewater, So I mean
6:32
Speaker 1: they're they're going to be having an NFL caliber quarterback
6:36
Speaker 1: played at that entire game at Josh McCown and Tenry
6:38
Speaker 1: Bridgewater and Sam Donald, those guys are going to be
6:40
Speaker 1: getting the snaps in this game. Falcon's roster and Matt
6:43
Speaker 1: Ryan is going to play the first drive, He'll take
6:46
Speaker 1: a seat. It will be Matt schob who does not
6:49
Speaker 1: necessarily NFL califer quarterback at this appointment. It's Kurt Bankert,
6:52
Speaker 1: Garrett Grayson. I believe the former Saints draft pickets on
6:56
Speaker 1: the roster as well. So second half of that game,
6:58
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Teddy bridge Water against some pretty mediocre
7:02
Speaker 1: all quarterbacks and and certainly the justus I think one.
7:05
Speaker 1: I also, you know, try and highlight Teddy Bridgewater in
7:08
Speaker 1: advance of a possible trade during this preseason, So I
7:11
Speaker 1: think you have a pretty big advantage in terms of
7:13
Speaker 1: quarterback play in that matchup. Wow, I didn't even think
7:16
Speaker 1: of that, Scooch. Why is all the money coming in
7:20
Speaker 1: on the Jets right now in a preseason game, that's
7:22
Speaker 1: a huge move. Well, I think you just described a
7:25
Speaker 1: pretty good reason. You know there's two and you did
7:28
Speaker 1: too as well. I mean, when you're betting preseason, I
7:31
Speaker 1: think most of the sharps look at a couple of
7:32
Speaker 1: different angles. One is are our coaches that are trying
7:35
Speaker 1: to make an impression out of the gate, So you're
7:38
Speaker 1: looking at some of the new coaches on the on
7:40
Speaker 1: the team that's getting a couple of wins for for Moraley,
7:43
Speaker 1: even though for for preseason means a little bit. But
7:46
Speaker 1: then the depth of quarterback is one of the things,
7:48
Speaker 1: like you just described sweating your your your first game
7:51
Speaker 1: in preseason, it's whoever is in there in the fourth
7:54
Speaker 1: quarter that's really going to make the difference. So if
7:57
Speaker 1: you do have two or three real good quarterbacks that
8:00
Speaker 1: you know we're going to be in there towards the
8:01
Speaker 1: end of the game, that's going to make the big difference.
8:07
Speaker 1: I feel vindicated right now. Well, because you're a sharp
8:11
Speaker 1: That's why I was sharp. I wasn't even honestly, like
8:16
Speaker 1: my logic wasn't even as good as Bills. And I
8:19
Speaker 1: still feel like I was on the right right side.
8:22
Speaker 1: It's almost like it's just instinct for me. At this point,
8:24
Speaker 1: I don't even need I don't even need the data.
8:30
Speaker 1: I can just I can do it by feel. Now,
8:33
Speaker 1: I will say in that game that we have about
8:35
Speaker 1: three times as many tickets on the Falcons as we
8:38
Speaker 1: do on the Jets, but a lot more money because
8:40
Speaker 1: we have the sharps on the Jets. So the money's
8:42
Speaker 1: on the Jets, but the more tickets are on the Salcons. Boom.
8:48
Speaker 1: That's another angle. Huh. That's all I have to say
8:52
Speaker 1: about that. I freaking love it, absolutely love it. Uh, Barnewell.
9:00
Speaker 1: Right now, there's a story on ESPN dot com written
9:03
Speaker 1: by you, these NFL teams. It's a lead story on
9:06
Speaker 1: ESPN dot com. That's a big deal. That is a
9:08
Speaker 1: huge website. Uh. And as someone who used to uh
9:12
Speaker 1: manage that particular product, I know what a big deal
9:16
Speaker 1: it was. When you would file a story, everyone will
9:18
Speaker 1: get excited because we knew we had something to anchor
9:20
Speaker 1: the top of the page. Um. So it says the
9:24
Speaker 1: headline is these NFL teams are copying the Eagles blueprint.
9:29
Speaker 1: Tell me who's copying the Eagles? Blueprint and whether or
9:32
Speaker 1: not they are going to be successful or they are
9:35
Speaker 1: going to be unsuccessful. So I went through a couple
9:38
Speaker 1: of different things. Obviously, think about the Eagles from last year,
9:41
Speaker 1: are they really invested heavily on both sides of the
9:44
Speaker 1: line of streamage? Offrontive line? It's a lot of free
9:47
Speaker 1: agents traded producing Peter scres Ago, He's still on the roster.
9:50
Speaker 1: Of course, defensive line, a ton of depth around Fletcher
9:52
Speaker 1: Cox is a fantastic player, but none other defensive line
9:55
Speaker 1: and even played I believe six of the snaps during
9:57
Speaker 1: the regular season, so they were head on a rotation
10:00
Speaker 1: eight guys playing for some of us stops are more. Uh.
10:03
Speaker 1: You know that they put our weapons around their quarterback,
10:05
Speaker 1: whether it was Carson Wentz or Nick Foles. Uh, they
10:08
Speaker 1: didn't invest heavily at cornerback, things like that. So you
10:11
Speaker 1: look at look at that all together, look at whose
10:13
Speaker 1: copying at the most on offense. I think the sort
10:16
Speaker 1: of obvious example might be the Chicago Bears, a team
10:19
Speaker 1: that hired the Chief's offensive coordinator that mayge just was
10:23
Speaker 1: the Eagles fit with Doug Peterson years ago. Uh, they
10:26
Speaker 1: had a quarter they traded up for in Mitchell Drobisky,
10:29
Speaker 1: UH Samley we Wus traded up for Carson Wentz, not
10:31
Speaker 1: all elevens around him during his rookie season. During the sufseason,
10:34
Speaker 1: of course, they invested a ton and left in Dowan, Robinson,
10:37
Speaker 1: Taylor Gabriel, trade Burden and Eagle himself. They even signed
10:41
Speaker 1: Chase Daniel, which I'm not sure if that's part of
10:44
Speaker 1: the Eagles plan necessarily, but it doesn't hurt that. I
10:47
Speaker 1: suppose UH sells really similarities there. And on the defensive
10:50
Speaker 1: side of the ball, it's actually Tampa Bay, a team that,
10:53
Speaker 1: of course it's difficult to kind of gage right now
10:55
Speaker 1: because of Jameis Winston suspension, but they really invested heavily
11:00
Speaker 1: in their defensive line out of a ton of players,
11:02
Speaker 1: including bow Allen and Benning Curry former Eagles themselves traded
11:05
Speaker 1: for JP Pjs and Paul the Drill McCoy, who sort
11:08
Speaker 1: of reflected Cox and that dominant interior disruptor role, used
11:11
Speaker 1: a first round pick on Vita Vea from Washington, and
11:15
Speaker 1: then UH drafted a bunch of cornerbacks as well to
11:17
Speaker 1: health out of the secondary. So UH defense that was
11:21
Speaker 1: dead last and Football Outsiders d V a stat last year,
11:24
Speaker 1: so a very bad defense by advanced metrics. But if
11:27
Speaker 1: they take a step forward, if they're not going to
11:29
Speaker 1: be the last propep because that they could be twentieth,
11:31
Speaker 1: maybe even sixteenth, they can improve to league average and
11:34
Speaker 1: you get Jameis went back with set team games. Suddenly
11:37
Speaker 1: that team could be interesting. I'm not gonna say they're
11:39
Speaker 1: gonna be a plug contender just because they're missing Winston
11:42
Speaker 1: for the first two games the season, but there is a, uh,
11:46
Speaker 1: there is an opportunity for that team to kind of
11:48
Speaker 1: take a step forward in a way that, uh, it
11:51
Speaker 1: might not seem on the surface. And I think they're
11:53
Speaker 1: copying in some of the ways what the Eagles did
11:56
Speaker 1: in those at their defense in the last year. Alright,
12:00
Speaker 1: Barnwell has laid out like two really thoughtful ways that
12:04
Speaker 1: the Bears in the bus are trying to mimic what
12:06
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl champions did. How much of what he
12:09
Speaker 1: said went into the way you thought about the season
12:13
Speaker 1: win totals for the Bears in the bucks, well, particularly
12:17
Speaker 1: for the for the Bears, it did, uh, And that's
12:19
Speaker 1: kind of what a lot of the talk surrounding the
12:22
Speaker 1: season win totals. We're going to be that even though
12:24
Speaker 1: the Bears were in a tough division that they were
12:28
Speaker 1: still expected to uh overachieve and everyone's expectations. As far
12:33
Speaker 1: as the season win tolls, we put up six and
12:35
Speaker 1: a half, which seems like a pretty pretty high season
12:39
Speaker 1: win total for a Bears team that you know, wasn't
12:42
Speaker 1: very good last year. But uh, a lot of the
12:45
Speaker 1: sentiment is that they're going to be I heard a
12:47
Speaker 1: lot of talk about them actually being compared to the
12:50
Speaker 1: way the Rams went from a team that was only
12:52
Speaker 1: supposed to win five or six games and ended up
12:55
Speaker 1: winning eleven games. I think, uh, we're seeing a lot
13:00
Speaker 1: of bets coming in on the over and the season
13:02
Speaker 1: wind tolls, particularly for the Bears. I actually just thought
13:05
Speaker 1: you were gonna say, we don't pay attention to any
13:08
Speaker 1: of that. Who we we took a pencil, we took
13:10
Speaker 1: we took a pencil of the paper, and we were like,
13:14
Speaker 1: this is the number. Yeah, now we do that too.
13:18
Speaker 1: Now we're we're I've said this many times before, we're
13:21
Speaker 1: handicapping where we think the money is as very much
13:25
Speaker 1: as much as we are handicapping what we actually think
13:28
Speaker 1: the outcome is going to be. There they're both part
13:30
Speaker 1: of the same process. So if if everyone's reading a
13:35
Speaker 1: lot of the stuff that you guys are writing, then
13:38
Speaker 1: that's going to influence their opinion in terms of how
13:41
Speaker 1: how they're approaching these bets. So yeah, no, it makes
13:44
Speaker 1: a big difference. You're not You're not go ahead though. No,
13:47
Speaker 1: it's an asking me, do you think are the Pencil
13:50
Speaker 1: team that maybe get because they such have such a
13:52
Speaker 1: large fan base of the team that gets maybe a
13:55
Speaker 1: little bit of a rational positivity on the overside that
13:58
Speaker 1: make like a Cowboys or a perhaps if they were good,
14:02
Speaker 1: I'd say, I say, yeah, so we see that with
14:04
Speaker 1: popular teams when they're good, But then you also see
14:07
Speaker 1: the same thing during I mean the opposite during the downturn.
14:10
Speaker 1: So all those years that the Forts were really good,
14:12
Speaker 1: you did see that bias. But then as soon as
14:15
Speaker 1: they start cycling downwards in their and their team is
14:17
Speaker 1: on the downward trend, then you you actually see the
14:20
Speaker 1: opposite where they're betting against them. I was just gonna
14:23
Speaker 1: say that, Scooch. I know for a fact you're not
14:26
Speaker 1: reading anything anybody writes about because like you've never listened
14:32
Speaker 1: to your own podcast. You don't even know where I work,
14:35
Speaker 1: and chances are good you've never read the book that
14:37
Speaker 1: you wrote. That's true, but you know you're inside these
14:40
Speaker 1: circles and you hear people talking about what they've read.
14:42
Speaker 1: So there's that. Well, it's good to know that the
14:45
Speaker 1: bookmaker of the world, who's the first doamado to fall
14:48
Speaker 1: for a multibillion dollar industry, is going on hearsay. It's
14:55
Speaker 1: like buying stocks. When you hear a stock when you
14:57
Speaker 1: hear stock tips, you know you it's sometimes it sways
15:01
Speaker 1: your opinion on on what stocks you're gonna buy. When
15:03
Speaker 1: you're when you're listening to the experts talk, then that
15:06
Speaker 1: that's going to affect how you bet. And people wonder
15:11
Speaker 1: why the country's in trouble. Listen, the Bears are at
15:17
Speaker 1: six and a half UM. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are
15:21
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I will say this, given
15:24
Speaker 1: the hype around the Bears, I am surprised that the
15:27
Speaker 1: Bears are still at six and a half, given the
15:30
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston scenario, and the fact that nobody thinks Dirk
15:34
Speaker 1: Cutter is a very good coach and might be the
15:36
Speaker 1: first guy to be fired this year, and the fact
15:38
Speaker 1: that generally the Bucks are just one of those you
15:40
Speaker 1: know scooches. You and I have discussed one of those
15:42
Speaker 1: nondescript Southern teams that nobody really cares about. Um with
15:47
Speaker 1: a logo that I couldn't pick out of a lineup
15:49
Speaker 1: that is probably gonna change next year. So why are
15:53
Speaker 1: the Bucks and the Bears in the same spot. I
15:55
Speaker 1: would have thought by now the Bears are probably inching
15:57
Speaker 1: closer to seven, um maybe get you know, bigger money
16:01
Speaker 1: and bigger juice, and I would think the Bucks actually
16:04
Speaker 1: would have opened even a little bit lower. Yeah, the
16:09
Speaker 1: Bears are inching up there, up to minus dollar forty
16:12
Speaker 1: on the over, so they are, like I said, they
16:14
Speaker 1: are betting the over on that one. And and the Bucks.
16:17
Speaker 1: You know that division. Not every team can go over
16:21
Speaker 1: their win total because you have you know, the Falcons
16:24
Speaker 1: are at nine and a half, and the Panthers are
16:26
Speaker 1: at eight and a half, and uh and the Saints.
16:29
Speaker 1: It's impossible for all of them to go over. So
16:31
Speaker 1: so yeah, the the the Bucks would be the one
16:34
Speaker 1: team that you would probably want to shade the under on.
16:39
Speaker 1: I mean you go about that, well, thank you, I
16:43
Speaker 1: appreciate that. No, I mean you think about the Bucks
16:45
Speaker 1: and look at their schedule. I mean you think, okay, well,
16:48
Speaker 1: too much winstin, get to spend it. The line is
16:50
Speaker 1: going to drop in, and you know obviously some of
16:52
Speaker 1: the money's gonna drop in. That would make sense. But
16:53
Speaker 1: you look at those first few games the Bucks, they're
16:56
Speaker 1: at New Orleans, when they host Philadelphia and host Pittsburgh.
16:59
Speaker 1: I don't think they were going to win those games
17:00
Speaker 1: which came this Winston. So it might be a thing
17:03
Speaker 1: where you know, you hear the news. I mean, like, okay,
17:07
Speaker 1: a lots of big reason to to sort of face
17:09
Speaker 1: and puckaneers over the course of the entire season, But
17:11
Speaker 1: I don't think it really might have change there expectation dramatically.
17:14
Speaker 1: Just give them that it was so unlikely they're going
17:16
Speaker 1: to win any of those three games. I feel like, Bill,
17:20
Speaker 1: you can appreciate and then debunk what I've done, which
17:23
Speaker 1: is in the NFC North I have gone on a
17:27
Speaker 1: record is picking the over ten over ten for the Packers,
17:32
Speaker 1: over ten for the Vikings, over six and a half
17:35
Speaker 1: for the Bears. I've gone under an alliance. Is any
17:39
Speaker 1: of that, is any of that actually mathematically possible? Can
17:44
Speaker 1: I can there be two teams in the division to
17:46
Speaker 1: go over ten and another team to go over six
17:48
Speaker 1: and a half. It's possible Alliance have to be pretty
17:51
Speaker 1: bad though. I mean they're talking about a really ugly
17:54
Speaker 1: season for Detroit, which I guess is not out of
17:56
Speaker 1: the question, but between those two and I do feel
18:00
Speaker 1: kind of strange saying that's given how Cooking were last year,
18:02
Speaker 1: but I would I would be more skeptical of the
18:05
Speaker 1: Vikings going over ten wins and the Packers going over ten.
18:07
Speaker 1: M Oh my god, I couldn't be more against you.
18:11
Speaker 1: I couldn't been more against you. And I'm and given
18:14
Speaker 1: sort of the way you approach your storytelling, UM, I'm
18:18
Speaker 1: shocked you would say that. And let me lay this
18:19
Speaker 1: out for you. And then Scooch, I want you to
18:22
Speaker 1: tell me where the public is, which I know, but
18:25
Speaker 1: where the sharps are because we had a great conversation
18:28
Speaker 1: about the Vikings and they're Super Bowl futures in the
18:30
Speaker 1: podcast last week. My feeling on the Vikings is that
18:34
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins is a much better quarterback than case Keenum
18:38
Speaker 1: and was lacking UH coaching support, emotional support, and human
18:43
Speaker 1: resource talent support UM when he was in Washington. He
18:47
Speaker 1: has that now in Minnesota in all three levels offensively,
18:52
Speaker 1: he was lacking consistent defensive support. In Washington has that
18:57
Speaker 1: probably the best defense in the NFL. And I'm not
18:59
Speaker 1: talking about out the fewest yards allowed. I'm not talking
19:03
Speaker 1: about their scoring defense. I'm talking about yards per play allowed.
19:07
Speaker 1: You know, I know like betters love yards per play allowed.
19:12
Speaker 1: They think it is the most relevant stat, the most
19:15
Speaker 1: revealing stat out of the box score, you can separate it.
19:18
Speaker 1: It's the biggest signal in all the noise um and
19:21
Speaker 1: they dominate in that. And so to me, I feel
19:23
Speaker 1: like they got much better from an offensive perspective, and
19:27
Speaker 1: they still have the best defense in the league. Bill
19:32
Speaker 1: speak to me, you want my my retort to that,
19:34
Speaker 1: I want, I want your retort, and then I want
19:36
Speaker 1: Scooch to tell me that I'm right and you're wrong. Bill,
19:39
Speaker 1: it's your show. So the ladder is probably gonna happen.
19:42
Speaker 1: But here's what I say about the Vikings. I agree
19:44
Speaker 1: with you. Kirk Cresin's obviously much higher floor to me
19:47
Speaker 1: than case Keenum does. Uh. It would not shock me
19:50
Speaker 1: if the offense was better than it was a year ago.
19:53
Speaker 1: The thing I would say is that you look at
19:55
Speaker 1: that offensive line. You have multiple injuries already on that
19:58
Speaker 1: offensive line, the Eastern's injured head Helpline's injured. Most injuries
20:03
Speaker 1: could stretch into the regulation season, so I would be
20:06
Speaker 1: concerned about that. Let's start there. The offensive line could
20:08
Speaker 1: decline well suddenly, then you're looking at an offensive might
20:11
Speaker 1: not be as effective even with a better quarterback. Defensive
20:14
Speaker 1: side of the ball, this was the healthiest defense in
20:17
Speaker 1: football the year, or according to Lead Football Outsiders Almanac,
20:20
Speaker 1: which just recently came out, the healthiest defensive league third
20:24
Speaker 1: down conversion rate of the best we've seen over the
20:28
Speaker 1: last twenty three years. I have purple bar offense dated
20:31
Speaker 1: going back to no defense, everyone better on third down.
20:34
Speaker 1: Look at those defenses that were the top twenty five
20:37
Speaker 1: defenses on third down, uh from the past twenty three years.
20:41
Speaker 1: Following year, they were not as good on third down.
20:43
Speaker 1: There they decline them on defense. I had an average
20:45
Speaker 1: of about forty five points from the previous years, So
20:49
Speaker 1: I could see the defense not being the best defensive
20:51
Speaker 1: football it being the fifth, the six, the seventh best
20:54
Speaker 1: defense in football. So take that step backwards. Suddenly, the
20:57
Speaker 1: offense might not be able to make up for that lead.
21:00
Speaker 1: And you throw in the division which you were ready.
21:02
Speaker 1: You confirmed you think it's good as a division where
21:05
Speaker 1: the Vikings from five one. Last year they played I believe,
21:08
Speaker 1: all of two series against Aaron Rodgers, and you know
21:11
Speaker 1: they had no trouble with Bredhunley in those two games.
21:13
Speaker 1: I think they picked him off five times and something
21:16
Speaker 1: shut it out in one of those games. Uh, it's
21:18
Speaker 1: gonna be a tougher slip for them in the NF
21:20
Speaker 1: to North. So again, I don't think they're gonna get
21:22
Speaker 1: a bad team, but it wouldn't shock me to think
21:25
Speaker 1: they are an eight or nine win team, or maybe
21:28
Speaker 1: even a ten win team, maybe in the eleven win team.
21:30
Speaker 1: But that's a least within the range of possibilities for
21:32
Speaker 1: me versus the defense you saw from the area. Listen,
21:36
Speaker 1: take a position. The the total is ten and you
21:39
Speaker 1: just said they could be an eight win team and
21:41
Speaker 1: nine team attended. It's it's it's not a strong play
21:46
Speaker 1: for me. I I wouldn't take a strong step on it.
21:49
Speaker 1: But what what you said was you're taking Packers over
21:51
Speaker 1: the Vikings over Bears over of those three beats, for
21:54
Speaker 1: one that I would be most hesitant to take would
21:57
Speaker 1: be Vikings over Scooch. Ye give me the proof right now.
22:02
Speaker 1: What's happening with the Vikings in the market. Oh, everyone's
22:06
Speaker 1: betting the over. The wise guys are betting the over,
22:08
Speaker 1: The public's betting the over. So you have a team
22:10
Speaker 1: that that went well over their season win total last
22:13
Speaker 1: year and essentially have the same team back with the
22:17
Speaker 1: upgrade on at the quarterback spot. So the sentiment is
22:21
Speaker 1: that they should easily surpass or at least equal what
22:25
Speaker 1: they did last year, and and at ten wins there
22:29
Speaker 1: seems to be a little bit of value there. So
22:31
Speaker 1: the money money came in on the over. Um the one.
22:35
Speaker 1: The one thing is they do have a couple of
22:37
Speaker 1: tough road games. They play the Rams, Eagles, Seahawks to
22:40
Speaker 1: Patriots on the road. So, uh, you look at the
22:44
Speaker 1: schedule and you look at some of the games where
22:46
Speaker 1: maybe they're small favorites or small underdogs, that those are
22:49
Speaker 1: the games that are going to decide whether it is
22:51
Speaker 1: a ten win season or an eleven win season. Wen't
22:56
Speaker 1: ask you so? So the Vikings last year thirteen and three?
22:59
Speaker 1: The cred of the quarterback? What were they posted at
23:02
Speaker 1: to start the season? Happy yearly? Uh? Nine and a half,
23:06
Speaker 1: So nine and a half, so already day designed is
23:08
Speaker 1: a three and a half game decline from what we
23:10
Speaker 1: saw a year ago. But the logic you just pointed
23:13
Speaker 1: out there makes sense. Bring that guys, you one quarterbacks,
23:16
Speaker 1: you know, quarterbacks upgraded, So it's I guess it's not
23:19
Speaker 1: a surprise to me that they got a lot of
23:21
Speaker 1: action on the over at that nine and a half,
23:23
Speaker 1: and then even a little bit it seems like a
23:25
Speaker 1: ten and you hit it. I was just gonna say
23:27
Speaker 1: the key thing, like when he said that it could
23:29
Speaker 1: be a nine win season, ten win season, or eleven
23:32
Speaker 1: win season. There's a big uh when when a game
23:36
Speaker 1: is sitting right on the whole number of of ten,
23:39
Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit more value betting either way
23:41
Speaker 1: because there's a very good likelihood that they win exactly
23:44
Speaker 1: ten games and you get your money back. So so
23:47
Speaker 1: there's there's you know, a good chance there that that
23:51
Speaker 1: the leader push or go over. Why did you send it?
23:55
Speaker 1: Why did you said it at nine and a half?
23:58
Speaker 1: That was last year, he was asking, but it opened
24:01
Speaker 1: I'm asking this year, but it opened it nine and
24:03
Speaker 1: a half This year he was asking about this year. Oh,
24:06
Speaker 1: this year, I thought you I thought you were talking
24:08
Speaker 1: about last year. What it was this year? Yeah, yeah, No,
24:10
Speaker 1: this year we opened it at ten and then they
24:12
Speaker 1: just betted up to ten over minus of dollar forty
24:16
Speaker 1: It okay? Even ten, like ten is a three game?
24:20
Speaker 1: Is a three game decline off of what you were
24:22
Speaker 1: at of what they won last year? How do you
24:24
Speaker 1: settle on ten? Why not ten and a half? Why
24:26
Speaker 1: not eleven? Yeah? Just looking at the games, like when
24:29
Speaker 1: you go through their schedule and you try to arrive
24:31
Speaker 1: at what the point spread would be in each particular game. So,
24:35
Speaker 1: like I said, out of those those four kind of
24:38
Speaker 1: pivot games where they're they're playing the Rams, Eagles, and Patriots, Uh,
24:43
Speaker 1: you know, you're just trying to say, if they're a
24:45
Speaker 1: three point or more underdog in those games, you expect
24:48
Speaker 1: them to lose those games, so you count them as
24:49
Speaker 1: a loss. So when you run down the schedule, just
24:52
Speaker 1: according to the point spreads, you arrive at at ten wins. Now,
24:56
Speaker 1: obviously there's gonna be a couple of games where they're
24:58
Speaker 1: either pick them or or plus or minus one, and
25:01
Speaker 1: you just have to kind of, uh use a feel
25:03
Speaker 1: of where the public's gonna bet. So we just how
25:06
Speaker 1: you arrive at all the numbers on on the season
25:08
Speaker 1: win totals. Bill, I don't know if we've ever talked
25:12
Speaker 1: about this. This is a tangent for a second. This
25:14
Speaker 1: is inside grant Land ESPN history right here in two
25:20
Speaker 1: thousand eleven, Um, you would just moved to Vegas. You
25:23
Speaker 1: were working for grant Land. Um, and I had just
25:27
Speaker 1: taken over as editor in chief of ESPN the magazine,
25:30
Speaker 1: but I was still doing my gambling column for ESPN
25:34
Speaker 1: dot com. And I was excited that you were in Vegas.
25:37
Speaker 1: And Um, I actually pitched I can't remember if I
25:42
Speaker 1: pitched it to both Bill Simmons obviously of grant Land
25:46
Speaker 1: and now the Ringer, Um, who's which is great stuff?
25:50
Speaker 1: And both you know, obviously Grantland was amazing and the
25:52
Speaker 1: Ringer has incredible talent now too, and uh Rob King,
25:56
Speaker 1: who was my boss at the magazine and has gone
25:59
Speaker 1: on to more. And I said at ESPN, UM, I
26:02
Speaker 1: pitched to them that Bill and I should do a
26:06
Speaker 1: column competing against each other where I take everything I
26:11
Speaker 1: know about how wise guys think and how bookmakers set
26:15
Speaker 1: lines and how the market moves, and Bill should take
26:19
Speaker 1: everything he knows about analyzing games through analytics and film
26:24
Speaker 1: study and what he just knows as a football savant,
26:28
Speaker 1: and we should see like who's better at it? Is
26:31
Speaker 1: it the market and the bookmakers and the wise guys,
26:33
Speaker 1: or is it Bill with his computer like brain and
26:37
Speaker 1: ability for narrative. I feel like seven years and it
26:40
Speaker 1: didn't happen because, like I think Rob felt, as he
26:45
Speaker 1: appropriately felt, you're a little busy. You just took over
26:48
Speaker 1: the magazine. I don't really think you can be managing
26:51
Speaker 1: this right now. So it didn't it didn't really go anywhere.
26:56
Speaker 1: But I feel like we're actually getting to do it
26:58
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah. I think the fact that I don't
27:01
Speaker 1: live in Vegas anymore should probably tell you how that
27:05
Speaker 1: action would have gone and who would have won that
27:07
Speaker 1: that side of that bet that here, I think it
27:09
Speaker 1: would have been new. I could have looked like a genius.
27:14
Speaker 1: You still can? You still kind although I'm not going
27:16
Speaker 1: to live in Vegas again this time around? Half happy
27:19
Speaker 1: to be proven uh an idiot from the East Coast
27:21
Speaker 1: as opposed to moving out there again. Well that might
27:25
Speaker 1: be step number one. That pres yourn idiot. You left
27:27
Speaker 1: the beautiful, sunny weather and cheaper lifestyle in Vegas for
27:32
Speaker 1: eternal winter at a price that barely anyone can afford. Bill,
27:38
Speaker 1: don't let him both like to walk all over people.
27:40
Speaker 1: You gotta you gotta put him in his place once
27:42
Speaker 1: in a while. Shut up the show. Yeah, I mean,
27:52
Speaker 1: I mean, I still remember. I still remember, you know,
27:56
Speaker 1: some of the awful beats. I have that here, So
27:59
Speaker 1: I won't I won't, of course, you know, I won't
28:01
Speaker 1: Regalie with that these stories because everyone has them, and
28:03
Speaker 1: then you know you can always throw them all. But uh, yeah,
28:07
Speaker 1: it was. It was a year where I learned a
28:09
Speaker 1: lot about how much I didn't know when it came
28:11
Speaker 1: to betting on stet in Vegas? What did you think
28:14
Speaker 1: of living in Vegas and sort of following it as
28:17
Speaker 1: a as a better That was a really smart thing
28:21
Speaker 1: that you guys did, when Bill and you decided that
28:23
Speaker 1: you were going to move out there and sort of
28:24
Speaker 1: live in that environment and write about football from that perspective.
28:28
Speaker 1: I remember, like a lot of it was you were
28:30
Speaker 1: doing that, and then it morphed eventually into you're just
28:32
Speaker 1: writing about football and you're happen to be in Vegas.
28:35
Speaker 1: But what was your what was your thoughts and experience
28:38
Speaker 1: about being in Vegas like Scooch lives in Vegas like
28:41
Speaker 1: a king, like an Italian potentate, and so, um, tell
28:46
Speaker 1: me about your experience there. Well, I mean, you know,
28:49
Speaker 1: when it came to football, obviously, it's such a you know,
28:53
Speaker 1: you can't cover the NFL without thinking about it's on
28:56
Speaker 1: a gambling perspective, even if you don't want a gamble,
28:58
Speaker 1: just thinking about you know, how other people, how fans
29:01
Speaker 1: are approaching it, and so, uh, you have to think
29:04
Speaker 1: about it that way. You can't. You can't ignore that
29:06
Speaker 1: element out if you're not doing the job, if you're
29:08
Speaker 1: not at least acknowledging that this exists. And it's a
29:11
Speaker 1: big part of like people watch the NFL. No different
29:14
Speaker 1: to me than than fantasy football in terms of how
29:16
Speaker 1: I might look at the NFL and how I think
29:18
Speaker 1: about the NFL. So I think it was interesting because
29:21
Speaker 1: I was there during the absolute you know, bottom of
29:25
Speaker 1: the economy, bottom of the housing market in Vegas. You know,
29:28
Speaker 1: I was living in the beer towers in in city
29:30
Speaker 1: center just because uh, you know, it had basically all
29:34
Speaker 1: people who wanted to invest in it. Uh. I decided
29:37
Speaker 1: not to act with the house and double verse, and
29:38
Speaker 1: so we had this gleaming, you know, brand new building
29:42
Speaker 1: on Las Vegas Boulevard that was in percent occupied and
29:47
Speaker 1: I would go days without seeing anybody in the elevator
29:50
Speaker 1: in the building. Uh. It was. It was a very
29:52
Speaker 1: strange experience, but uh, you know, I think I learned
29:56
Speaker 1: a lot about just do I watched the end of
29:58
Speaker 1: games differently, and it's that's a little simplistic, but it's
30:01
Speaker 1: also true. I mean, just in terms of the motivation
30:05
Speaker 1: for players, the motivation for you know, fans watching it.
30:08
Speaker 1: You know, I it really we really breathe life into
30:11
Speaker 1: every moment of an NFL game, especially because you're right
30:15
Speaker 1: at the time there was you know, you really had
30:17
Speaker 1: the first sort of life setting coming into play when
30:20
Speaker 1: it came to the books themselves, or you can finally
30:22
Speaker 1: start standing on things in real time. Uh. It was
30:25
Speaker 1: just a every moment meant more to me than it
30:29
Speaker 1: did before I went to Vegas. Movebe I don't live
30:31
Speaker 1: there and I'm not betting on games on a week
30:33
Speaker 1: to week basis anymore. Uh. You know, I'm still thinking
30:36
Speaker 1: about that. I'm still considering that when it comes to
30:38
Speaker 1: evaluating how people play and moments that I would have
30:40
Speaker 1: written off as that you know, it was garbage time
30:42
Speaker 1: and cares like obviously it matters, obviously it's it's moving
30:46
Speaker 1: millions of dollars whether you've be in Vegas or offshore
30:51
Speaker 1: or or off the book. So uh, it really does.
30:54
Speaker 1: It just makes every moment more meaningful in the NFL games.
30:56
Speaker 1: To me, that's really cool. That little walkdown memory Lane
31:01
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Grantland and ESPN the magazine.
31:03
Speaker 1: Now back to our show. All right, you know what
31:07
Speaker 1: said I I think it's going to be an interesting
31:10
Speaker 1: shift to see how the media and journalists now cover
31:15
Speaker 1: the games with the expansion of sports betting around the country.
31:19
Speaker 1: And I'm not just talking about looking at a game
31:22
Speaker 1: and saying, uh, you know, I think this team is
31:24
Speaker 1: gonna win, and they're gonna win big, or they're gonna
31:27
Speaker 1: win by more than the points bread. I just mean
31:29
Speaker 1: more of more of an angle in terms of where
31:31
Speaker 1: some value is. Like you never hear too many of
31:36
Speaker 1: the talking heads on TV talking about a big, sizeable
31:40
Speaker 1: underdog that's going to keep a game competitive and there,
31:43
Speaker 1: you know, maybe some value. I'm looking at a team
31:46
Speaker 1: that's you know, ten or twelve point underdog in the game.
31:49
Speaker 1: I always find it funny when I watched that the
31:51
Speaker 1: Fox pregame show, and I'm, uh, they're all giving their picks,
31:56
Speaker 1: and every pick is exactly the same, the seven point favorites.
31:59
Speaker 1: They're all picking that, and then when they picked their one,
32:01
Speaker 1: their one underdog, it's usually a plus one underdog. It's
32:05
Speaker 1: never a big sizeable underdog, you know. I was like, Wow,
32:07
Speaker 1: you're really going out on a limb there, You know what, Scooch,
32:12
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I actually think that, uh, someone
32:16
Speaker 1: should ditch their beautiful, bright, gleaming career at a major
32:21
Speaker 1: media company like ESPN, where they're making more money than
32:25
Speaker 1: they would ever need and would certainly have more than
32:27
Speaker 1: enough to support their family. Uh, they should ditch all
32:30
Speaker 1: that to go work for a startup media company in
32:33
Speaker 1: the gambling space. Because I think I think my line
32:38
Speaker 1: went that, Sorry, yeah, because San isn't he No, I was.
32:44
Speaker 1: I was actually talking. I was talking about me. I
32:46
Speaker 1: wasn't like being so plate is to like recruit Bill
32:50
Speaker 1: on the podcast I'm talking about Okay, I yeah, I
32:57
Speaker 1: get it. Now, it makes it makes sense to me
32:59
Speaker 1: now I understand. Um, But I absolutely agree, and I
33:03
Speaker 1: do think that, uh it's gonna change when we think
33:06
Speaker 1: about the game, and I think soccer fan, I watched
33:08
Speaker 1: a ton of soccer. I've been to a lot of
33:10
Speaker 1: games in England, for example, and it's it's such a
33:12
Speaker 1: ubiquitous part of the culture there when it comes to
33:15
Speaker 1: betting on soccer, you know, I mean you can bet
33:18
Speaker 1: obviously on on games. Inside the stadium. You can bet
33:22
Speaker 1: on the match, uh you know, from the concession stands.
33:24
Speaker 1: Basically there are chaos. You can bet on the game, uh,
33:27
Speaker 1: you know, the the side boards, the the digital sideboard
33:30
Speaker 1: will has uh you know in running updates so you
33:34
Speaker 1: can bet on stuff happening in real time. The commercials
33:37
Speaker 1: will have updates for headtime commercials will have updates on
33:41
Speaker 1: uh even the awesom who's scored first in the second
33:43
Speaker 1: half that are catered to echo what happened in the
33:45
Speaker 1: first half. So I mean there's you know it, it
33:49
Speaker 1: really has permeated all elements of watching soccer. And and
33:52
Speaker 1: so it would not shock me if that's going to
33:56
Speaker 1: happen with the NFL over the next ten fifteen years.
33:58
Speaker 1: And and I think that happens. You can't you can't
34:01
Speaker 1: clear the NFL. You can't talk about the NFL without
34:04
Speaker 1: acknowledging that that exists and not that this is what
34:07
Speaker 1: you're gonna be a sharp. But I'm certainly not going
34:09
Speaker 1: to be a sharp by any means, but you know,
34:11
Speaker 1: at least being conversant when it comes to the language
34:14
Speaker 1: of that and talking about games with that in mind. Right,
34:19
Speaker 1: agree with both of you. That is why I left
34:22
Speaker 1: ESPN to help form the Action Network. Yes, you did.
34:29
Speaker 1: Clearly it feels like you want to validate you. Yeah,
34:36
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I wouldn't mind it, you know I did, Chad,
34:40
Speaker 1: that was a great, great move, and I'll tell you
34:43
Speaker 1: that not seriously. You know what I left. I left
34:47
Speaker 1: a lot behind. I wouldn't mind if someone every once
34:49
Speaker 1: in a while was like, hey, you know what idea
34:54
Speaker 1: your timing was. I mean, you you were able to
34:56
Speaker 1: foresee what happened with the Supreme Court ruling. Their timing
35:00
Speaker 1: was impeccable. I mean, you couldn't ask for better timing
35:03
Speaker 1: with the start of the Action Network. I mean now
35:06
Speaker 1: and now that sports betting is just opening up in
35:09
Speaker 1: all these states, it's it's perfect. You're sitting in the
35:13
Speaker 1: catbird scene. I appreciate that. Ever, Ever, God, you guys,
35:24
Speaker 1: you shouldn't really, I don't. I appreciate you so in
35:28
Speaker 1: such an unprompted way filling my head with good thoughts. Listen, Scooch,
35:32
Speaker 1: I want us to each go through right now, and
35:35
Speaker 1: I want to talk about um our two favorite season
35:40
Speaker 1: wind total bets. You can go over, you can go under.
35:43
Speaker 1: But I want to from each of us, and uh, Scooch,
35:46
Speaker 1: as you are giving us, as we are talking about these,
35:49
Speaker 1: I additionally want you to give me UM how the
35:52
Speaker 1: market is reacting to these particular bets. Bill, would you
35:56
Speaker 1: like to go first? Do you need a minute to
35:57
Speaker 1: think about it? You would you like me to go first.
36:00
Speaker 1: I'm happy to do either. I would love for you
36:02
Speaker 1: to go first, because I do need a minute to
36:04
Speaker 1: think about my options. Here's what I would like to say.
36:07
Speaker 1: I would like to say that number one, I love,
36:10
Speaker 1: love Love, hold on, uh, let me just get to
36:14
Speaker 1: the line here. The New York Giants, Um, Scooch, what
36:19
Speaker 1: do you have in there right now? Well? I just
36:21
Speaker 1: moved him yesterday to seven and a half, but they
36:23
Speaker 1: were at seven. Oh man, you know what, I'll still
36:26
Speaker 1: take him at seven and a half. I love the
36:29
Speaker 1: Giants this year. I love the Giants on their future Um,
36:34
Speaker 1: they were at fifty to one. I know, Scooch, you
36:36
Speaker 1: moved them to twenty five to one off of a
36:38
Speaker 1: ton of sharp money. Um. Also we didn't mention about
36:41
Speaker 1: the Vikings. Just to close the loop on this is
36:44
Speaker 1: that the Vikings were another team getting huge amounts of
36:48
Speaker 1: public action, and their Super Bowl odds have dropped I
36:52
Speaker 1: think from what like twelve to one to eight to one. Scooch. Okay,
36:56
Speaker 1: So I love the Giants. I think um that Uh,
37:00
Speaker 1: the Giants. You know, they were a train wreck of
37:03
Speaker 1: a team last year, and I think that getting them
37:06
Speaker 1: anything under eight to me, you guys sit the line
37:09
Speaker 1: really low based on what the action was last year. Um,
37:14
Speaker 1: and their offense can only be better because they don't
37:18
Speaker 1: have a train wreck of a coach. Uh. Eli is
37:21
Speaker 1: going to have more support in O'Dell being back and
37:24
Speaker 1: in se Kwan Berkley. Um. I love what they've done
37:28
Speaker 1: on defense. They've added alec Ogletree was one of the
37:31
Speaker 1: better linebackers in football. So to me, this is a
37:36
Speaker 1: team that's on the make. Like I don't remember the
37:39
Speaker 1: last time, I think it since two thousand four that
37:42
Speaker 1: the NFC East champ has repeated. And so while the
37:46
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champ came out of there. I don't think
37:48
Speaker 1: it's a done deal. The Eagles are going to be
37:50
Speaker 1: the team that repeats um. So I love the Giants
37:53
Speaker 1: in the over and I'll take it at seven and
37:55
Speaker 1: a half. There you go, tell me about the market, Scooch.
38:00
Speaker 1: The market agrees with you, and that's why I went
38:02
Speaker 1: from seven, I've moved up to seven minus fifty seven
38:06
Speaker 1: over minus seventy, and then finally yesterday we went to
38:09
Speaker 1: seven and a half. We moved to a half a game,
38:12
Speaker 1: and you're still laying a price on the over at
38:14
Speaker 1: minus a dollar thirty. So I think a lot of
38:17
Speaker 1: people agree with you. I think it was like everything
38:20
Speaker 1: you just described is accurate, and everyone else feels the
38:23
Speaker 1: same way. Is that wise guy money or is that
38:25
Speaker 1: public money? It's mostly wise guy money that the public
38:28
Speaker 1: money really didn't start coming in until recently. The public
38:32
Speaker 1: kind of likes to follow a lot of the wise
38:34
Speaker 1: guy moves, so they waited after these came out back
38:37
Speaker 1: in April May, and they watched where some of these
38:40
Speaker 1: line movements went, and then they and then the public followed.
38:45
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised it's wise guy money, given my stamps. Yeah,
38:48
Speaker 1: because you are such as sharp. Yeah. I have also
38:51
Speaker 1: all over the Houston Texans. The Houston Texans as a
38:55
Speaker 1: high number is eight and a half plus and but
38:57
Speaker 1: the over is plus one thirties, so you're getting a
38:59
Speaker 1: better deal. Um. Similar logic for me as the Giants. Uh,
39:05
Speaker 1: you're basically getting your two best players back. You're getting
39:10
Speaker 1: two first round draft picks back in Deshaun Watson and J. J.
39:15
Speaker 1: Watt Um. You already have one of the best receivers
39:18
Speaker 1: in football and DeAndre Hopkins. I think Bill O'Brien is
39:21
Speaker 1: a really smart coach who did a lot with nothing
39:25
Speaker 1: last year. And Deshaun Watson last year, he was having
39:29
Speaker 1: one of the best season rookie quarterback season in history,
39:33
Speaker 1: and I loved him coming out of college. I'm a
39:36
Speaker 1: Bears fan and I was desperate for the Bears to
39:38
Speaker 1: draft him. I've always been a big believer in um
39:43
Speaker 1: number of games you start in college being reflective of
39:47
Speaker 1: success in the NFL, And to me, Deshaun Watson fit
39:52
Speaker 1: that Bill and he his trajectory is so much higher
39:55
Speaker 1: than I think people can recognize. So I like the
39:59
Speaker 1: Texans over eight and a half. Give me some plus
40:01
Speaker 1: money talk. Well, no, no plus money anymore. I mean
40:06
Speaker 1: that was one of the ones that they did bet
40:07
Speaker 1: pretty heavily on the over. So, uh, we're at eight
40:10
Speaker 1: and a half over minus a dollar forty now, so
40:13
Speaker 1: now it's minus money on the over. But you know,
40:16
Speaker 1: just big question marks. Can can Deshaun Watson stay healthy? J? J. Watt?
40:20
Speaker 1: I mean, those are the two big ifs with Houston.
40:23
Speaker 1: But uh, I think most of the it's not a
40:27
Speaker 1: heavily bet game or a heavily bet total, but the
40:31
Speaker 1: sharps are on the over and this one, so they
40:34
Speaker 1: feel that this team will stay healthy all season. Two
40:38
Speaker 1: sharp picks from Chad Millman, because that's who you are.
40:46
Speaker 1: I as we know, as we've already discussed and praised
40:50
Speaker 1: me for, I can see the future. Bill Barnwell, m
40:54
Speaker 1: top that well. I agree with you. In the Eastant,
40:57
Speaker 1: I gotta bet. I'm you know, the big move in
41:02
Speaker 1: terms of uh, you know, the action on that side
41:04
Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Not surprised. I do think the
41:07
Speaker 1: upside they're super high. So with you on the Texans,
41:10
Speaker 1: I don't know about the Giants. They were by my
41:13
Speaker 1: I posted them on Twitter. My biggest under last year
41:16
Speaker 1: was Giants under nine, and then I had Texans under
41:19
Speaker 1: eight and a half and I got a little lucky,
41:21
Speaker 1: I think with the watched injury. But I still think
41:24
Speaker 1: the you know, the instincts were right there in terms
41:26
Speaker 1: of the Texans. So but this year, I'll throw two
41:30
Speaker 1: unders out there, because you threw two overs out there,
41:33
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go Panthers and a lot of
41:37
Speaker 1: this there is nine hundred or under nine is minus
41:40
Speaker 1: one thirty. So I'm pretty comfortable at that, just because
41:43
Speaker 1: I think they were an operated team last year by
41:45
Speaker 1: the numbers, they had a nine point oh win uh
41:48
Speaker 1: point differential, and look at the numbers there, and then
41:51
Speaker 1: they were uh seven and one in games de side
41:54
Speaker 1: of by a touch cdientner. Last, and I have to
41:55
Speaker 1: look at is the Panther's history between seventeen to see
42:00
Speaker 1: a dependent The record is in on that performance in
42:02
Speaker 1: one scored game, which is not going to be sustainable.
42:05
Speaker 1: And then I don't think they got better for this offseason.
42:08
Speaker 1: This is a team that lost Andrew Norwell, the first
42:11
Speaker 1: team All Pro guard Darrell Williams starting my tackle has
42:14
Speaker 1: probably done for the year, and if he plays, he's
42:16
Speaker 1: not going to be the same guy. He was very
42:18
Speaker 1: solid last year uh A team, and I've said a
42:20
Speaker 1: lot of players in their mid to late thirties in
42:23
Speaker 1: key roles, so it's tough to count on guys like
42:26
Speaker 1: Greg Olsen Uh Ryan Khalil Uh to get stay healthy.
42:30
Speaker 1: Thomas Davis another injury risk and also suspended for the
42:32
Speaker 1: first four games of the season. And then I don't
42:36
Speaker 1: love the fit of North Turner with Cam Diden in
42:39
Speaker 1: this offense, especially an offense that has officie line issues. Now,
42:42
Speaker 1: I don't trust them that passion tracks long enough to
42:44
Speaker 1: get North Turner to run that downfield passing attack. I
42:46
Speaker 1: think Cam's gonna make a few things happen, but I
42:49
Speaker 1: have to admit I'm very skeptical dispensers team especially. I
42:53
Speaker 1: think the Buccaneers are gonna be okay, and I think
42:55
Speaker 1: the falcon Men are still gonna be two very good
42:57
Speaker 1: football teams. I to see them having a losing leson
43:01
Speaker 1: this year pretty comfortably. So I would go under nine
43:04
Speaker 1: there and feel pretty get about it, even at UH
43:06
Speaker 1: even at thirty cents, and I'd also go under Tennessee
43:10
Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on uh. I
43:14
Speaker 1: love that that I think it's super smart, and I
43:17
Speaker 1: think that the thing about north Turner is spot on.
43:20
Speaker 1: So Jeff Schwartz, who played in the NFL for a
43:22
Speaker 1: long time and is a UH analyst for the Action Network,
43:25
Speaker 1: made a great point the other day. He played with
43:26
Speaker 1: Cam in North Carolina. He still lives in Charlotte, and
43:31
Speaker 1: he made a great point that Norv Turner has never
43:33
Speaker 1: had a quarterback like Cam like. His career has been
43:35
Speaker 1: built around drop back quarterbacks. And the thing about Cam
43:39
Speaker 1: is that he really needs to get physical and to
43:45
Speaker 1: get into a rhythm in the running game personally to
43:48
Speaker 1: start to get ant and feel comfortable. And you could
43:50
Speaker 1: see him sort of get emotionally charged when he has
43:53
Speaker 1: at least like one good run in a game, and
43:55
Speaker 1: that's not part of north Turner's design. And Cam Newton
43:59
Speaker 1: has one at the high school, juco, college and professional level,
44:03
Speaker 1: both personal accolades and team accomplishments, doing exactly what he's
44:08
Speaker 1: done without changing a thing. So it's gonna be really
44:10
Speaker 1: hard for him to adjust his game. North Turner is
44:13
Speaker 1: gonna have to figure out a system that is different
44:15
Speaker 1: than what he's done for his entire career. I think
44:18
Speaker 1: that's gonna be challenging. I think that's the key to
44:20
Speaker 1: what you just said. I love that play. Scooch. Tell
44:23
Speaker 1: me how the market is reacting to what Barnwell was saying. Well,
44:27
Speaker 1: we got some sharp money on the on the under,
44:30
Speaker 1: but not real big. It's one of the least bet
44:33
Speaker 1: totals that we have on the board. Ironically, there's not
44:35
Speaker 1: a whole lot of public action either. I just don't
44:38
Speaker 1: think that anyone really like they wouldn't be surprised if
44:42
Speaker 1: Carolina won ten games, and they probably wouldn't be surprised
44:46
Speaker 1: if they only won seven games. They're they're just uh
44:49
Speaker 1: kind of they saw that the rise and fall of
44:51
Speaker 1: this team make it to the to the super Bowl,
44:54
Speaker 1: and then just underperformed that the next year. So uh,
44:57
Speaker 1: not a whole lot of interest in this one. Well,
44:59
Speaker 1: you know also Southern team, crappy colors, shitty logo, unmanorable,
45:07
Speaker 1: no history. Yeah yeah, probably Barnwell Well, uh he's given
45:15
Speaker 1: that criteria. I think this might be another low action
45:18
Speaker 1: that might be Tennessee uh going under their total, which
45:22
Speaker 1: at the moment, according to the Trustee Action Network dot
45:25
Speaker 1: com website, uh eight etan is the under. So um,
45:29
Speaker 1: I'm I'm very skeptical of a lot of things there.
45:33
Speaker 1: I I you know, I could see a scenario where
45:35
Speaker 1: you look at, Wow, they've got a young team, talented team. Uh.
45:38
Speaker 1: I didn't love the coaching staff. Last year. Marcus Mariota,
45:42
Speaker 1: Barry challenger and quarterback had an off year. You see
45:45
Speaker 1: him playing better, You see the team staying healthier in
45:47
Speaker 1: some ways. Uh, maybe they're gonna be a a team
45:50
Speaker 1: that could win ten games. But a couple of things
45:52
Speaker 1: for me. Number one, they were a team that really
45:55
Speaker 1: beat up on bad teams last year, played the second
45:57
Speaker 1: East schedule and football according to my numbers, and this
45:59
Speaker 1: kind of not going to be tough. But I do
46:01
Speaker 1: think the A South is going to be a lot better.
46:04
Speaker 1: I think Houston, who talked about as a likely candidate
46:07
Speaker 1: to improved dramatically. Jacksonville, the numbers last year said they
46:10
Speaker 1: were a dominant team even better than their record indicated.
46:13
Speaker 1: They should be back at that level to me. And
46:15
Speaker 1: then in Annapolis is getting Ambi Luck back? And if
46:17
Speaker 1: he's Andrew Luck, what's the big league forward of anywhere?
46:19
Speaker 1: A team that according to the numbers was a lot
46:22
Speaker 1: better than they looked uh in terms of their final records.
46:26
Speaker 1: So except the vision being a lot tougher. And then
46:29
Speaker 1: I am skeptical of the new coaching staff. Mike Rabel
46:32
Speaker 1: someone who I think a lot of people like, uh
46:35
Speaker 1: like to them from his pro career, a lot of
46:37
Speaker 1: respect around the league. But that was true of Mike Singletary,
46:40
Speaker 1: another phone linebacker, and he didn't get things done in
46:43
Speaker 1: San Francisco. And Rabel's one year is a coordinator with Houston.
46:47
Speaker 1: Last year they dropped off pretty significantly. There was some
46:50
Speaker 1: injuries there for sure, but there were injuries the year
46:52
Speaker 1: before JJ Watless missing for even more of the year
46:54
Speaker 1: I believe in twenty six team and they were able
46:56
Speaker 1: to hold on just fine. So I'm not necessary really
47:00
Speaker 1: induce if there's a great coaching staff there, it's gonna
47:03
Speaker 1: have Marcus Mario to take a leap forward. So uh,
47:05
Speaker 1: their additions this offseason. Meltin Butler, you know, was pretty
47:09
Speaker 1: bad last year before the Super Bowl. Dean Lewis, the
47:11
Speaker 1: guy is super talented, but incredible injury history. Um, they
47:14
Speaker 1: traded up repeatedly in the draft. The talent that I
47:16
Speaker 1: don't know it's necessarily worth it. Jack Conklin, Uh, they're
47:20
Speaker 1: excellent right tackle is coming up to twenty cl secord
47:22
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. You might be ready for the start
47:24
Speaker 1: of the season Brishard Matthews who still possibly unable to play.
47:28
Speaker 1: So I do think there's a lot of negatives there.
47:31
Speaker 1: I thought that I can't see scenario where they improved,
47:33
Speaker 1: but just to me, it's much more plausible given the numbers,
47:36
Speaker 1: given their roster construction. But they do take a step
47:39
Speaker 1: backwards and they're more of a six and ten, seven
47:41
Speaker 1: and nine team here, nondescript Southern team with a logo
47:46
Speaker 1: no one could do out of the hat. Just proved
47:50
Speaker 1: my theory again, Scooch, give me a market reacts on that.
47:54
Speaker 1: So the first couple of vets out of the gate
47:57
Speaker 1: were on the over on this one for uh some
48:00
Speaker 1: pretty sizable bets, and within the last two weeks we
48:03
Speaker 1: saw some equally uh large action on the under. So
48:08
Speaker 1: we're dead even in terms of actual money on the game,
48:11
Speaker 1: and the public ticket counts pretty low on on this
48:14
Speaker 1: one as well, as the Titans aren't typically you know,
48:18
Speaker 1: one of those public teams like the Steelers and Cowboys.
48:20
Speaker 1: But um, but the money is dead even. But it's
48:23
Speaker 1: pretty sizeable money on both sides, so we really didn't
48:26
Speaker 1: move the total much. Alright, Scooch, give me your two
48:30
Speaker 1: PHAs now, Okay, So now it's a little different because
48:35
Speaker 1: I'm actually able to change the numbers that I'm using,
48:38
Speaker 1: So I'm actually I'm actually screwing myself. But typically I
48:44
Speaker 1: end up screwing myself over because I've already moved them
48:47
Speaker 1: in the direction where we're shading. So the first the
48:50
Speaker 1: first one is the Rams, and you know, we we
48:54
Speaker 1: loved them last year to go over very low total,
48:57
Speaker 1: so we shaded them on on the very high side
49:00
Speaker 1: at nine and a half over dollar fifty. We're up
49:03
Speaker 1: to ten already on the game. But I still think
49:07
Speaker 1: that they'll go over ten. Here's the Here's a team
49:09
Speaker 1: that they had eleven wins last year and in my opinion,
49:12
Speaker 1: only got better with the acquisition they got to keep
49:16
Speaker 1: to leave Marcus Peters Dominican sues. I mean, they've they've
49:20
Speaker 1: they've got some pretty good moves in free agency. This
49:23
Speaker 1: team is going to be even better than they were
49:25
Speaker 1: last year. So and the public agrees with me. The
49:28
Speaker 1: sharp guys got in a little bit early on at
49:31
Speaker 1: over nine and a half and they've slowed down a little.
49:33
Speaker 1: When we went to ten. But it maybe maybe a
49:37
Speaker 1: square play, but it looks pretty favorable total square play.
49:41
Speaker 1: What is your next one? The forty Niners under and
49:48
Speaker 1: and again I already and I already moved it under
49:51
Speaker 1: and and the reason I kind of equate them to
49:54
Speaker 1: what the Raiders were last year, when the Raiders, like
49:57
Speaker 1: two years ago, they had that twelve win season where
49:59
Speaker 1: the hype was just tremendous going into last year kind
50:02
Speaker 1: of right for regression. I think they're not going to
50:05
Speaker 1: sneak up on anybody with the way that they finished
50:08
Speaker 1: the season last year. There's still going to be a
50:10
Speaker 1: good team, and they're in a division where teams like
50:13
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and Seahawks are also on the downslide. But uh,
50:17
Speaker 1: they're they're the expectations are too high for what the
50:20
Speaker 1: total is, and I think a lot of the public
50:23
Speaker 1: kind of drove it up to that number. But I
50:27
Speaker 1: favor that one under. I couldn't disagree with me. You
50:32
Speaker 1: like them over, I think them over. I think the
50:35
Speaker 1: Rams are the Raiders from two years ago. Really okay,
50:42
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are the Raiders from two years ago,
50:44
Speaker 1: the Vikings from eight years ago, and the Lions from
50:47
Speaker 1: seven years ago. How many wins. Do you think they're
50:52
Speaker 1: going to get them the Rams? Yeah? Nine nine? Okay,
51:00
Speaker 1: clothes while throwing some bonus ones for you. How about
51:03
Speaker 1: the Steelers under I love that, yes, okay. Well are
51:09
Speaker 1: on the same page there then, and they're playing They're
51:12
Speaker 1: in a real They've got a tough schedule playing all
51:15
Speaker 1: those teams that we just mentioned in the NFC South
51:17
Speaker 1: this year at ten and a half games, Um, I
51:20
Speaker 1: think by the end of the season you're going to
51:22
Speaker 1: see them fade a little bit. What's your biggest liability
51:25
Speaker 1: right now? Um? Well, the Vikings over was was a
51:30
Speaker 1: pretty big one. And here's one that's I mean, it's
51:33
Speaker 1: really gonna shock you. And I think I talked a
51:36
Speaker 1: little bit about it, but the Denver Broncos was one
51:40
Speaker 1: of our one of our biggest decisions out of out
51:43
Speaker 1: of everything on the board, and uh at seven seven
51:46
Speaker 1: and a half games both, I mean a lot of
51:49
Speaker 1: its public you mean, you talk about one of those
51:51
Speaker 1: teams that has a pretty big following and their proximity
51:54
Speaker 1: to Vegas, that that accounts for some of it. But
51:57
Speaker 1: there's some some pretty big bets at over seven and
51:59
Speaker 1: a games there, So that that one surprised me a
52:03
Speaker 1: little bit. M hmm, boy are people stupid? Wow? Listen,
52:11
Speaker 1: I got a call like I see it. I'm saying
52:14
Speaker 1: that's straight. I'm a straight shooter man, straight Talk Express.
52:23
Speaker 1: All right, listen, everyone go read Bill Barnwell on ESPN
52:27
Speaker 1: dot com. Uh, he's fantastic. Everyone continue to download the
52:32
Speaker 1: Buffet with Chat and Scooch because Scooch is fantastic and
52:37
Speaker 1: I'm a futurist, so you probably just want to listen
52:41
Speaker 1: to everything I'm saying to get in on the game.
52:43
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell, thanks for joining the Buffet with Chad and Scooch.
52:49
Speaker 1: Bring stuff, Scooch, thanks for coming, Thanks for coming on
52:52
Speaker 1: your podcast today. Thanks Chat, you too. All Right, I'll
52:56
Speaker 1: talk to you guys again soon. He a