Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Fation a twenty nine and fifty five KCD talks station.
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  Speaker 1: A very happy Tuesday to You're tuned in at the
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  Speaker 1: right time if you want to find out what's going
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  Speaker 1: on the situation between the United States Israel on one side,
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  Speaker 1: and of course the Iranians on the other. Welcome back
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  Speaker 1: to the fifty five Cars Morning Show with a podcast.
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  Speaker 1: He calls the Daniel Davis Deep Die find wherever you
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  Speaker 1: get your podcast. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, my friend,
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  Speaker 1: it's great seeing you and talking to you as it
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  Speaker 1: is every week on the morning show. Good to see again.
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  Speaker 2: J A lighted to be here, Brian, thanks for having
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  Speaker 2: me back.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So is jd Vance on the plane or not?
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  Speaker 1: We look up this morning. Last night he was on
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  Speaker 1: his way. He was gonna leave last night, didn't leave
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  Speaker 1: last night, gonna leave this morning. Seems to be a
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  Speaker 1: breakdown of communications. We have these pre negotiations or the
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  Speaker 1: second round of talks. We're gonna go forward, No, says
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  Speaker 1: the Iranians know they're not. We didn't agree to that.
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  Speaker 1: You guys have violated the truth that we had talked
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  Speaker 1: about and we're not gonna sit down. But I get
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  Speaker 1: conflicting reports. It seems to me that there's some confusion
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  Speaker 1: as to even who we're supposed to be talking with.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, you got the hardline Iran Revolutionary Guards, which
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  Speaker 1: presumably have the greatest amount of control considering they have
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  Speaker 1: the weapon. And then you've got the sort of clerical
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  Speaker 1: government that maybe sounds like it might want to sit
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  Speaker 1: down or something, where Daniel, can you make some sense
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  Speaker 1: out of this for my listeners to me, because I
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  Speaker 1: am confused.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's that's the kind of going around. Because
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  Speaker 2: it's even President Trump himself added to the confusion because
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  Speaker 2: at one point he told ABC News that JD. Advance
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  Speaker 2: would be going, and then he told ABC News the
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  Speaker 2: Advance wouldn't be going, and then later on we'll know
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  Speaker 2: he probably is going to go, and then all the
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  Speaker 2: things you added to that. On the Iranian side, there
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  Speaker 2: there's a lot of confusion. I think more on the
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  Speaker 2: Western side and interpreting things as I see it, and
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  Speaker 2: I've talked to some experts, I don't see any daylight
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  Speaker 2: between the Iranian delegations, whether it's the I RGC or
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  Speaker 2: the political government. They're all one entity. I mean, they
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  Speaker 2: always have been, so I think that we're looking for
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  Speaker 2: some daylight. I think between some of the sides as
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  Speaker 2: though something that can be exploited, But I don't see
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  Speaker 2: any I think they're all definitely on the same side,
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  Speaker 2: on on the Iranian side. And the thing we got
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  Speaker 2: to understand is that it ran feels like it is
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  Speaker 2: in a dominant position, because if it's controlled, the straight
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  Speaker 2: of horror moves. The fact that it weathered that first
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  Speaker 2: forty days of attack and everything we threw out them
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  Speaker 2: and they still retain that control, and there's no reason
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  Speaker 2: to think that we can take it militarily if it
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  Speaker 2: goes another forty days. So that puts them in a
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  Speaker 2: pretty confident position heading into the talks, if they're even
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  Speaker 2: going to go, And at least as of literally right
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  Speaker 2: before we came on the ear here, I saw one
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  Speaker 2: report that said, well, now it looks like for Wednesday
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  Speaker 2: they are going to send somebody theirs not so not today,
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  Speaker 2: But then again, who knows, because I checked the official
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  Speaker 2: Iranian news agency right before we came on and they're
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  Speaker 2: not reporting that, So who knows if it's going to happen.
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  Speaker 2: But Iran had said last night, I mean all of
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  Speaker 2: them with a Gallibov a raksheet and possessed Giann the president.
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  Speaker 2: They were all very kind of cocky even about how
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  Speaker 2: they are not going to give away their sovereignty even
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  Speaker 2: if there are talks. So if they happen, and I
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  Speaker 2: strongly hope that they do, h I don't think that
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  Speaker 2: we should expect some kind of big breakthrough, all right.
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  Speaker 1: But at least it would pause the newest of the
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  Speaker 1: red lines, which apparently is tomorrow evening, sometime in the evening.
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  Speaker 1: That's that's the time. Upon what Donald Trump said he's
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  Speaker 1: going to start dropping big bombs.
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  Speaker 2: He did, yeah, and so I think that's that's why
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  Speaker 2: it's it's uh probably I think a better chance to
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  Speaker 2: not that there will be a meeting at least tomorrow,
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  Speaker 2: so before that would happen. There has also been a
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  Speaker 2: substantial build up in American combat power even above where
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  Speaker 2: it was. There is more air power, there is more
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  Speaker 2: naval power in the in the region now than there
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  Speaker 2: was at the start of this war. Loss of C
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  Speaker 2: seventeen's have been rolling in, uh, bringing who knows what
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  Speaker 2: all kinds of military gears. So we are definitely geared
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  Speaker 2: up to come back in a very big way. Militarily
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  Speaker 2: if President Trump gives that order or they can stand
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  Speaker 2: down too. And uh, of course Iran is well aware
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  Speaker 2: that they can see the same open source reports plus
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  Speaker 2: the stuff they probably get from both China and Russia
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  Speaker 2: intelligence wise, so everybody knows what's coming. Uh, it's just
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  Speaker 2: a matter of who's going to have the more determination.
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  Speaker 2: And right now I don't see Iran given into anything,
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  Speaker 2: which makes me feel like we're probably heading back to conflict.
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  Speaker 1: Well longer term, and I don't know how much longer
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  Speaker 1: in term we're talking about, because I'm not that greatly
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  Speaker 1: familiar with the Iranian economy. But yes, they are having
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  Speaker 1: a profound influence by controlling the Straight of horor moves
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  Speaker 1: and preventing traffic from going through twenty percent of the
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  Speaker 1: worlds oil and other fertilizers and things are going through there.
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  Speaker 1: But isn't their entire economy kind of based on traffic
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  Speaker 1: going through the straight of horror moods? So are they
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  Speaker 1: not harming themselves by keeping the whole thing shut down?
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  Speaker 1: And of course the United States is corollary response, which
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  Speaker 1: is to start preventing Iranian ships or ships coming to
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  Speaker 1: and from Iranian ports from passage so they kind of
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  Speaker 1: had it seems to me at least a very difficult
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  Speaker 1: problem themselves with what they have done by militarily appropriate
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  Speaker 1: trying to control the straight of horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it comes down to there's no question about it.
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  Speaker 1: You're correct.
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  Speaker 2: Both sides are harmed by the strait being closed, US
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  Speaker 2: and the Iranian side. The question is this is a
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  Speaker 2: great game of chicken, who will blink first, who will
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  Speaker 2: be harmed the most and most importantly, who can endure
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  Speaker 2: the most under pain and who can suffer the longest?
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  Speaker 2: And I think the Iran side feels like they can
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  Speaker 2: because they feel like that the cost it would pose
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  Speaker 2: on them, and they foresaw this from the beginning, were
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  Speaker 2: prepared for it. They said, look, we've gone through an
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  Speaker 2: eight year war with Iraq. We suffered a lot, then
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  Speaker 2: we can suffer a lot now. We don't want to
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  Speaker 2: lose our income. It's not all gone from the strait.
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  Speaker 2: There's like twenty percent that can go out other ways
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  Speaker 2: from pipelines and whatnot, other things to the Caspian Sea,
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  Speaker 2: so that's not totally cut off, but it will be
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  Speaker 2: hugely influential. But they feel like they can suffer longer
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  Speaker 2: than we can, and they may be right, because you know,
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  Speaker 2: this oil. If it stays up like this and the
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  Speaker 2: supply stays down as much as it is for even
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  Speaker 2: a month or two more, we could be in real
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  Speaker 2: dire straits, not just the United States, but our allies
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  Speaker 2: in Asia, Europe, and Africa. This has some real and
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  Speaker 2: those are all pressure points that will be put on
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  Speaker 2: Washington to do whatever it takes to get this off.
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  Speaker 2: Because they didn't want to go to this war in
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  Speaker 2: the first place. So I think Iran is non pressure,
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  Speaker 2: not just from themselves but from others.
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  Speaker 1: And I agree with you that they have demonstrated the
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  Speaker 1: ability to do things for the long haul. You mentioned Iraq,
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  Speaker 1: but I guess that decades long. I mean, the rock's
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  Speaker 1: right next door, so they can't move there right on
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  Speaker 1: top of each other, and obviously disagreed for a long time.
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  Speaker 1: But the nature of war has changed so dramatically. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: back when they were fighting amongst each other, this wasn't
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  Speaker 1: drone warfare. This is boots on the ground shooting at
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  Speaker 1: each other kind of thing, and not by remote control
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  Speaker 1: so much. Now we have this whole remote control warfare,
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  Speaker 1: and the Iranians certainly know how to wage one of those.
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  Speaker 1: But we've come up with some pretty slick things ourselves,
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  Speaker 1: and so I just with the amount of money and resources,
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  Speaker 1: it seems more like an apple's oranges comparison. To compare
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  Speaker 1: the United States and Israel going after the Iranians versus
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  Speaker 1: their long term situation with the Iraqis or do I
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  Speaker 1: have that wrong?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I see, I would. I would say it's more
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  Speaker 2: like it was apples and apples in the nineteen eighties
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  Speaker 2: and now it's oranges oranges here because both sides have
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  Speaker 2: changed the nature of warfare has changed, and it's changed
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  Speaker 2: equal nearly on both sides. But the issue is the
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  Speaker 2: comparative between the two sides today, and what are we
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  Speaker 2: going to do with our remote control bombs. We're talking
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  Speaker 2: a country that is as big as most of Western Europe,
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  Speaker 2: and it's got all these mountain ranges and things they
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  Speaker 2: can hote under, things that even a lot of these
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  Speaker 2: missiles can't penetrate. And you know, just blowing up a
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  Speaker 2: bunch of buildings on the surface or attacking this equipment
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  Speaker 2: or that headquarters, that's not going to cause Iran to
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  Speaker 2: capitulate anytime soon. I mean, you would have to almost
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  Speaker 2: just turn Iran into Gaza, and you know that takes
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  Speaker 2: more bombs in the entirety of all of our arsenals
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  Speaker 2: put together, and we still wouldn't reach there. And even
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  Speaker 2: that didn't work in Gaza. So I think that it's
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  Speaker 2: reasonable to suggest that Iran can go a whole lot
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  Speaker 2: longer than they.
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  Speaker 1: Have, and that factors in your conclusions in that regard,
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  Speaker 1: factors in if Donald Trump goes come full on rogue
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  Speaker 1: and starts bombing all of their power generation facilities and
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  Speaker 1: their infrastructure, and some say civilian targets as well, if
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  Speaker 1: you shut them down and turn their power off, they're
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  Speaker 1: still going to survive.
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis well, and it's even more than just surviving,
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  Speaker 2: because the Iranians have been very specific in saying, if
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  Speaker 2: you do that, President Trump, and if you do the
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  Speaker 2: hit that target set that you said, here's our target reply,
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  Speaker 2: and it is all the same kind of targets in
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  Speaker 2: all the GCC countries and Israel, and they have demonstrated
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  Speaker 2: that their missiles can penetrate our air defenses and it's
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  Speaker 2: likely that they would be able to hit all those
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  Speaker 2: targets and it would absolutely devastate the region. Because now
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  Speaker 2: then the strake won't be closed because of a political
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  Speaker 2: decision that you can just turn off with an agreement.
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  Speaker 2: It'll be a physical constraint because the production facilities will
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  Speaker 2: be destroyed. It can take many months or years in
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  Speaker 2: some cases to replace it, so we will be catastrophic.
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  Speaker 2: So Man, I think that that's not an issue about
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  Speaker 2: last and that's a game of even bigger strategic chicken
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  Speaker 2: that we don't want to get into, because when you're
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  Speaker 2: talking about an existential threat for the Iranian side, they
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  Speaker 2: have no reason to withhold into restrain themselves once you
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  Speaker 2: go to that level, because you know they could literally destroy.
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  Speaker 1: Them and they won't sit silent.
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  Speaker 2: And I don't think we want to find out if
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  Speaker 2: they mean it.
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  Speaker 1: And maybe that is the answer. The question was gonna
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  Speaker 1: ask you the parliamentary speaker, Muhammad Bagar Caliabol whatever his name. Anyway,
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  Speaker 1: he said, we do not accept negotiations under shadow of threats.
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  Speaker 1: And in the last two weeks we have been preparing
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  Speaker 1: to show new cards on the battlefield. I've been puzzling
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  Speaker 1: over that has been widely reported all over New Cards
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  Speaker 1: on the battlefield. The first thing I thought of was
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  Speaker 1: the situation in Iran. With the playing cards that we
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  Speaker 1: passed around with the the the figures like bag Dad
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  Speaker 1: Bob on them. But what do you think that explanation
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  Speaker 1: just gave me? With all these targets that they projected
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  Speaker 1: out there, that's the quote unquote new cards on the
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  Speaker 1: battlefield they're referring to.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think so, because these are target sets that
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  Speaker 2: they're gonna attack. The question is to attack with what?
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  Speaker 2: And there has been widely reported even from the beginning
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  Speaker 2: of the war that they the Iranians had a number
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  Speaker 2: of new kind of hypersonic missiles that they were holding
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  Speaker 2: in reserve for a moment like this, and they were
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  Speaker 2: using a lot of their older stuff that had been
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  Speaker 2: made from twenty twelve to twenty twenty in terms of missiles,
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  Speaker 2: and once they'd use those, and we'd used a lot
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  Speaker 2: of our interceptors, then they would bring out their biggest
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  Speaker 2: guns and things that have a very high probability of
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  Speaker 2: penetrating any kind of defense and are very precise. That
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  Speaker 2: is what I think that they mean. We'll have to
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  Speaker 2: wait and see and hopefully it stays in the theoretical realm.
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  Speaker 1: From a strategy perspective, And this'll be our last question. Dan,
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  Speaker 1: and I appreciate your indulgent alone these lines. If they
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  Speaker 1: have that kind of missile, I guess I just wonder
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  Speaker 1: from a military perspective, if you want to let your
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  Speaker 1: foe know that you do have the goods, wouldn't you
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  Speaker 1: launch one of those at some city that they've already
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  Speaker 1: tried to bomb before, maybe even to a target in Israel,
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  Speaker 1: just to prove that this is what you're This is
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  Speaker 1: what the response is going to be if you don't
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  Speaker 1: leave us alone or otherwise resolve this.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, that's kind of where the position that
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  Speaker 2: they're in right now, and they just said, look, we're
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  Speaker 2: going to use our conventional stuff. First of all, keep
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  Speaker 2: that sort of as a as a secret thread or
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  Speaker 2: you know, make you concerned by seeing that the stuff
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  Speaker 2: that we're saying older is still penetrating your air defenses.
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  Speaker 2: So just imagine if this is true and we actually
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  Speaker 2: have this capability here. But then they wouldn't from military perspective,
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  Speaker 2: I wouldn't bring that out until I was ready for
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  Speaker 2: some kind of decisive strike, something that I wanted to
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  Speaker 2: make sure that you didn't get a chance to figure
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  Speaker 2: out before with this warning strike, because then I can
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  Speaker 2: do some analysis and see is there some way I
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  Speaker 2: can maybe mitigate against it. I want the first time
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  Speaker 2: that you see it to be when I needed to
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  Speaker 2: hit the target.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis deep diye I find wherever we get your podcast.
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  Speaker 1: Tune in every Tuesday at eight thirty for another segment
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  Speaker 1: with Daniel Davis. It's always a pleasure, it's alarming, it's concerning.
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  Speaker 1: This is why we have these conversations. The popcorn continues
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  Speaker 1: to be out. Is jd Vance on a plane? I
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  Speaker 1: guess we're going to find out soon enough, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: I guess we will.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks Brian, see you next time.
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  Speaker 1: Take care brother eight forty one fifty five KR SE
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  Speaker 1: DE Talk Stations stick around, folks. Feel free to give
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  Speaker 1: me a ca