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MLB Divisional + NCAAF + WNBA Finals Best Bets Friday 10/10/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
0:05
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm
0:11
Speaker 1: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
0:14
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
0:17
Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
0:19
Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
0:24
Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
0:27
Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
0:32
Speaker 1: bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
0:36
Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
0:41
Speaker 1: my Bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going
0:43
Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. Arch hate? Is that what it is?
0:46
Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
0:49
Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
0:52
Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
0:55
Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
0:58
Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
1:02
Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
1:06
Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five. The
1:09
Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
1:12
Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
1:14
Speaker 1: about this anymore. The slumpers, the slump disconvenius, the slump continues.
1:20
Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
1:24
Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
1:27
Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you.
1:35
Speaker 1: Better off deed for Friday, October tenth. Losing day on
1:40
Speaker 1: the show yesterday, One and two obviously not what I wanted,
1:45
Speaker 1: fairly easily could have been two and one. I think
1:47
Speaker 1: the Islander should have won. I know they were. I
1:50
Speaker 1: don't think they were ever winning in the game, or
1:52
Speaker 1: maybe they were winning really early on. It was a
1:53
Speaker 1: back and forth game. It was tied late in the game.
1:56
Speaker 1: They wound up losing four to three. But statistically they
1:59
Speaker 1: won that game. I didn't look at the highlights or
2:02
Speaker 1: anything like that, but looking just digging into the stats
2:04
Speaker 1: of the game, they had a high face off percentage.
2:08
Speaker 1: They had more shots on goal, which wasn't just because
2:12
Speaker 1: they were like desperate because they were down multiple goals.
2:14
Speaker 1: That wasn't the case. They were not, So I don't know.
2:18
Speaker 1: I mean, they outstated Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh sucks. Pittsburgh did go
2:22
Speaker 1: with Jarry again Jari whatever the hell his name is
2:25
Speaker 1: in net which based on the handicap. I didn't really
2:28
Speaker 1: care which of the goalies they went with. I was
2:30
Speaker 1: just going with them, I thought being a little bit
2:33
Speaker 1: overvalued after the previous game. But that one didn't work out.
2:38
Speaker 1: Winnipeg was a loser, but they had to tease us.
2:43
Speaker 1: It was a close ish game into the later parts
2:46
Speaker 1: of the game. They were down two to one. Then
2:48
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Dallas just exploded and it was
2:50
Speaker 1: five to one. Then in the final ten minutes of
2:54
Speaker 1: the game, Winnipeg, or between like ten and three minutes
2:56
Speaker 1: of Winnipeg put up a bunch of goals and caught
2:58
Speaker 1: it to five to four. I'm like, how dare you
3:01
Speaker 1: tease me like that? Like you can't do that, man, Like,
3:04
Speaker 1: just lose five to one, don't cut it to five
3:06
Speaker 1: to four and make me think that you're actually gonna
3:07
Speaker 1: come back here. But that was a loser Winnipeg. They
3:11
Speaker 1: got out played in the game. That was a bad
3:13
Speaker 1: call by me, So yeah, fuck me on that one,
3:17
Speaker 1: I guess. And then Vancouver did get us a win
3:19
Speaker 1: to salvage the rest of the day, although it was
3:22
Speaker 1: still not a good day, obviously a losing day, but
3:24
Speaker 1: one and two. We're two and two in hockey so far.
3:28
Speaker 1: Want to be doing better than that. Obviously, I'm distracted,
3:32
Speaker 1: and because there's some fucking beeping noise outside right now,
3:35
Speaker 1: which I think I don't know, so truck back, I
3:37
Speaker 1: don't know what the fuck is going on? Is cold out,
3:40
Speaker 1: by the way, feels like hockey season now. My Bruins
3:43
Speaker 1: they're somehow they're two and oh. I don't know how
3:46
Speaker 1: well a home game against the Chicago helps, which, by
3:51
Speaker 1: the way, I forgot to mention. The Bruins have now
3:54
Speaker 1: won ten straight home openers, either tied with Toronto for
3:58
Speaker 1: the longest active streak, and home openers. They win their
4:02
Speaker 1: home openers, man for whatever reason, almost didn't happen. They
4:07
Speaker 1: won an overtime, but they were the better team in
4:09
Speaker 1: the game. A couple I watched the highlights on that one.
4:12
Speaker 1: The first couple of goals the Bruins allowed were some
4:15
Speaker 1: real mistakes, just lazy passing in their own end on
4:20
Speaker 1: one of them, and then the other one was just
4:21
Speaker 1: kind of a fluke off of a face off that
4:23
Speaker 1: looked like it should have gotten whistled dead and the
4:26
Speaker 1: play continued on. It was very bizarre, but whatever, But yes,
4:30
Speaker 1: we got Vancouver right in the late game. They won
4:33
Speaker 1: five to one, so though it was one nothing, I
4:35
Speaker 1: think to the third perio, so I'm like, oh my god,
4:38
Speaker 1: Vancouver is probably gonna win by one and we're gonna push.
4:41
Speaker 1: But no, they were able to extend the lead. They
4:43
Speaker 1: probably got some empty net goals at the end to
4:45
Speaker 1: make it look better than it really was, but they
4:47
Speaker 1: were still the better team in the game. Football was
4:51
Speaker 1: interesting last night, which it kind of pissed me off. Well,
4:54
Speaker 1: what pissed me off is that the three like other
4:57
Speaker 1: leans that I really had yesterday, which or New York Rangers.
5:02
Speaker 1: That was an easy wining hockey I should have added
5:04
Speaker 1: that as a play. That was the first one I
5:06
Speaker 1: left off my card, easy win for the Rangers. And
5:09
Speaker 1: then football, My like only lean that I really had
5:13
Speaker 1: in football was Sam Houston State plus the points they covered.
5:16
Speaker 1: They lost by two, so they covered the plus seven
5:20
Speaker 1: low scoring games, so that was correct. And then I
5:22
Speaker 1: was correct again on NFL Thursday night. I'm six and
5:25
Speaker 1: oh man, NFL Thursday Night, I've only given a one
5:28
Speaker 1: play in the NFL Week one, I gave out Dallas
5:31
Speaker 1: to cover on the Thursday Night, which they did, maybe
5:36
Speaker 1: helped a little bit by a lightning delay, but I
5:38
Speaker 1: think maybe they were gonna cover that anyway. But I'm
5:40
Speaker 1: just wrecking Thursday nights. Like last year, I think I
5:42
Speaker 1: only got two or three Thursday Night calls wrong the
5:46
Speaker 1: entire season. I probably only actually bet like two or
5:49
Speaker 1: three of them. But I mean that's just I don't know,
5:53
Speaker 1: it is what it is. I don't know. I just
5:54
Speaker 1: it feels like when there's that isolated game, I can
5:56
Speaker 1: just think about it more. I'm not just and I'm
6:00
Speaker 1: just like, this is what I think is gonna happen.
6:02
Speaker 1: I didn't think the Giants were gonna win outright that
6:05
Speaker 1: convincingly though. That was wild, dude. It was a back
6:08
Speaker 1: and forth game in the early parts of the game,
6:10
Speaker 1: but the Giants did get too early touchdowns, and you're thinking, man,
6:14
Speaker 1: I mean they look like a completely different team with
6:16
Speaker 1: Dart and Scataboo out there versus well, Russell Wilson being
6:20
Speaker 1: out there. I mean, Russell Wilson is done, dude, Like,
6:23
Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about that. And
6:25
Speaker 1: he was in the game briefly last night because Jackson
6:27
Speaker 1: Dark got hurt and Brian Doe ball there day Ball
6:32
Speaker 1: the coach was like flipping out, like having coaches go
6:35
Speaker 1: into the tent, where Dart was like get him back
6:38
Speaker 1: out on the field, like, we can't do this, Dart.
6:40
Speaker 1: He's still gotta get get himself down more than he does. Man,
6:45
Speaker 1: Like he was, He's still like running like headfirst into defenders.
6:49
Speaker 1: He should probably not do that. He only did it
6:51
Speaker 1: like one time that I really noticed last night. I
6:53
Speaker 1: didn't watch the whole game. I watched some of it,
6:55
Speaker 1: but yeah, I don't know man, but Dart, I mean,
6:58
Speaker 1: he just brings a completely different atmosphere vibed that team. Man.
7:02
Speaker 1: Two early touchdowns from him, and then it was the
7:04
Speaker 1: scattermous show for the rest of the game, partially because
7:07
Speaker 1: they're winning the game. So obviously, if you're winning the
7:10
Speaker 1: game and you're succeeding at running the football, obviously you're
7:13
Speaker 1: gonna continue to run the football. And that's what they
7:15
Speaker 1: were doing. And it takes the load off a Dart
7:17
Speaker 1: a little bit too. It was a good game all
7:19
Speaker 1: around for the Giants. Man, it's just a completely different team.
7:22
Speaker 1: Although I'm gonna be looking to probably go against them
7:24
Speaker 1: in their next game, because that was just such a
7:26
Speaker 1: huge game beating the Eagles in primetime. Eagles probably not
7:31
Speaker 1: as good as what they were last year, though, because
7:33
Speaker 1: they did lose like half of their defense from last year.
7:36
Speaker 1: Their offense appears to be struggling. The tush push doesn't
7:39
Speaker 1: work anymore. They had that series where they ran four
7:42
Speaker 1: straight tush bushes. It's like, what the fuck are you doing? Dude?
7:45
Speaker 1: Ban the toush push. Let's get into today's games, man,
7:48
Speaker 1: I don't want to rant too much of it. I
7:50
Speaker 1: think the opening rantser. Hopefully they provide some entertainment value here.
7:55
Speaker 1: I know I'm a little bit early today too, but
7:57
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get this show done and then i'll be
7:58
Speaker 1: back tonight for colle football. Let's go to the breakdown.
8:02
Speaker 1: I don't have any plays for Friday. Man, it's a
8:05
Speaker 1: small card. There's no hockey. Hockey resumes tomorrow with most
8:09
Speaker 1: teams playing tomorrow, Saturday is usually a big hockey day,
8:12
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So usually Sunday's light, and I think
8:15
Speaker 1: Friday tends to be a bit light as well. But
8:18
Speaker 1: we do have WNBA is where we'll started. I was
8:22
Speaker 1: just on college football. But WNBA continues. Even though I
8:25
Speaker 1: thought these were five game series in the WNBA WNBA
8:28
Speaker 1: Finals here, but they're actually seven game series. Las Vegas.
8:32
Speaker 1: Obviously they're gonna win. I mean, they're up three to
8:34
Speaker 1: oh here. I don't think there's any question about this.
8:37
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how long WNBA has even
8:40
Speaker 1: had seven game finals. But the stats are probably like
8:45
Speaker 1: non existent about whether teams blow a three to zero lead.
8:48
Speaker 1: But it's not gonna happen. And as you can see here,
8:51
Speaker 1: Vegas is a three point favorite, up from a one
8:53
Speaker 1: and a half to a three. Here, fifty nine percent
8:55
Speaker 1: of tickets, seventy one percent of the cash, and so
8:58
Speaker 1: the money also coming out of Vegas. And if you remember,
9:01
Speaker 1: in Game three, I did lay the points with Phoenix
9:04
Speaker 1: at minus three and a half and they were up
9:06
Speaker 1: to four and a half when the game went off.
9:07
Speaker 1: So why is the line seven and a half points
9:10
Speaker 1: different here? I mean part of it is because when
9:12
Speaker 1: the team goes down three sometimes they do pack it in.
9:15
Speaker 1: So sometimes you you'll see that line shift to that
9:18
Speaker 1: team that went up three to zero, but not by
9:22
Speaker 1: this extent. So the reason for most of the line
9:25
Speaker 1: move here is actually because there's an injury Phoenix Sably
9:30
Speaker 1: Sabali who ever pronounced the name. She's the best player
9:32
Speaker 1: on Phoenix and she's injured, So Phoenix is even more
9:36
Speaker 1: done because of that. Although it does mean it's the
9:38
Speaker 1: injured player theory. They're getting points at home now, they
9:42
Speaker 1: are good home team, and they are on the verge
9:45
Speaker 1: of elimination here, So I think at the very least
9:49
Speaker 1: you could say there's probably no value to be had
9:51
Speaker 1: on Vegas there because it's injured player theory. As I
9:53
Speaker 1: talk about when your star player goes down, you're gonna
9:56
Speaker 1: step up your game that first game without that star player,
9:59
Speaker 1: and I think may do that plus you elimination. I mean,
10:02
Speaker 1: they don't really have much of a reason to go
10:05
Speaker 1: to not go all out, except for again, you have
10:07
Speaker 1: to worry about which way is it gonna go here,
10:10
Speaker 1: Like is that gonna motivate them or are they actually
10:12
Speaker 1: just gonna pack it in early because they know they're
10:15
Speaker 1: pretty much you know they're not gonna win the series,
10:17
Speaker 1: so I should yeah, I mean there are two conflicting
10:20
Speaker 1: ideas here of how this game is gonna go, So
10:22
Speaker 1: I can't give out a play in this game, but
10:24
Speaker 1: I mean value wise, the value would be on Phoenix
10:28
Speaker 1: because I think the line generally will just overreact to
10:32
Speaker 1: an injury and you're getting I think some extra points
10:34
Speaker 1: there with Phoenix, But will they even show up at all?
10:37
Speaker 1: That's what you have to gauge. I don't want to
10:39
Speaker 1: try to gauge that, so there's no way I'm gonna
10:41
Speaker 1: give out a play on that game. We will be
10:44
Speaker 1: correct about Vegas winning the championship though, That's what I
10:47
Speaker 1: had in my bracket. Helped out a little bit by
10:50
Speaker 1: call here from Minnesota getting injured. But even so, I
10:54
Speaker 1: think Vegas may very well be the best team now
10:58
Speaker 1: in the w NBA, and the odds were a decent
11:02
Speaker 1: on it. Speaking of the odds, by the way, just
11:04
Speaker 1: on the NFL real quick, I forgot to mention Jackson Dart, dude,
11:09
Speaker 1: my Collin Jackson Dart baby. I know it's really early.
11:11
Speaker 1: He's only made three starts so far. He's two to one.
11:15
Speaker 1: He's kind of he's game managing a little bit, but
11:17
Speaker 1: he's not really making mistakes, and he hasn't made mistakes
11:20
Speaker 1: in his home game. His home games, he starts fast
11:24
Speaker 1: like he he's getting touchdowns early in games, so that's
11:27
Speaker 1: a good sign as well. But I said not only
11:30
Speaker 1: like I said, he was the best quarterback of the
11:32
Speaker 1: draft class, and I think everybody's going to agree with
11:35
Speaker 1: that at this point, and it seemed like people were
11:36
Speaker 1: not agreeing with that going into the draft. No, it's
11:39
Speaker 1: cam Ward and Sugar sandersy okay, okay. But I also
11:44
Speaker 1: said that I thought Dart was like the next like thing, man,
11:47
Speaker 1: like he's gonna be like a franchise quarterback. People looking
11:50
Speaker 1: at me like I'm crazy, And now I think it's
11:53
Speaker 1: like people are like, nah, we never said that, but
11:55
Speaker 1: because now, like I'm being proven right, I felt like
11:57
Speaker 1: I was out on an island. I don't know, man. Yeah,
12:02
Speaker 1: most people were not saying what I was saying. And
12:05
Speaker 1: Dart was like three hundred and fifty to one to
12:07
Speaker 1: win the offensive Rookie of the Year at the start
12:09
Speaker 1: of the season. He's three and a half to one now,
12:12
Speaker 1: so I think he might actually win Rookie of the Year.
12:14
Speaker 1: And I was saying that somewhat joking but somewhat seriously.
12:18
Speaker 1: Like at the beginning of the season, I was like,
12:20
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson sucks so bad. Dart's gonna be in as
12:23
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback like four weeks into the season basically,
12:27
Speaker 1: and then he's gonna win Rookie of the Year. I
12:29
Speaker 1: was saying that, and it might actually happen now three
12:32
Speaker 1: hundred fifty to one, you would have gotten great odds
12:34
Speaker 1: on that, because he's now three and a half to one,
12:37
Speaker 1: and the only guy with better odds right now to
12:40
Speaker 1: win the offensive Rookie of the Year is egg Buoka.
12:43
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna try to pronounce it like Gronk does,
12:46
Speaker 1: Bookie boog book the wide receiver on Tampa Bay, But
12:50
Speaker 1: I think a quarterback has like the upper hand in
12:53
Speaker 1: the in the v in the excuse the Rookie of
12:56
Speaker 1: the Year voting, man, I think quarterbacks because they they're
12:59
Speaker 1: the leader of the team, so I think they kind
13:01
Speaker 1: of get that extra bump as far as Rookie of
13:03
Speaker 1: the Year is concerned. If he keeps doing what he's
13:05
Speaker 1: doing here, I think he will wind up winning Rookie
13:08
Speaker 1: of the Year. Man gent D is in the mix too,
13:11
Speaker 1: but Raiders are just sucking ass, So I mean that's
13:14
Speaker 1: the other thing. Though. I think part of the reason
13:16
Speaker 1: why egg Buka is like the favorite right now is
13:19
Speaker 1: because Tampa is actually a winning football team right now,
13:21
Speaker 1: so that does factor into it. That has something to
13:24
Speaker 1: do with it. But they just got Chris Godwin back.
13:26
Speaker 1: I think Mike Evans is coming back at some point,
13:28
Speaker 1: so those guys are gonna eat up some of those touches. Man.
13:31
Speaker 1: So egg Buka might not be as good throughout the
13:33
Speaker 1: rest of the season. Just there's not enough. Too many
13:37
Speaker 1: wide receivers and you know, not enough plays to spread it,
13:39
Speaker 1: you know, to get that many touches, right, you gotta
13:42
Speaker 1: spread it around. Baker Mayfield's probably gonna spread it out
13:45
Speaker 1: to his targets there. So yeah, man, could be Jackson
13:50
Speaker 1: Tart could wind up being right about that. Let's go
13:52
Speaker 1: to baseball here. We have one baseball game today, which
13:55
Speaker 1: is Detroit and Seattle in the series deciding game five
14:01
Speaker 1: here back in Seattle, and Seattle does not have their
14:04
Speaker 1: best pitcher, Brian Wu on the divisional roster here, so
14:08
Speaker 1: they do not have Wu available, so they are gonna
14:11
Speaker 1: have to go with George Kirby and they're gonna have
14:13
Speaker 1: to contend with Schooball in this game. Ah man, I mean,
14:18
Speaker 1: people are pretty much saying Detroit's gonna win this series.
14:20
Speaker 1: Now because it is schooble on the mound. But I'm
14:23
Speaker 1: not so sure about that, and the money is also
14:25
Speaker 1: not so sure about that. Is Detroit's down for minus
14:27
Speaker 1: one twenty five to minus one nineteen on the money line.
14:30
Speaker 1: Here line in Detroit is a road favorite. It's a
14:34
Speaker 1: little crazy, man. I know it's schoolball. I know he's
14:36
Speaker 1: the best pitcher in baseball. But and yes, the starting
14:39
Speaker 1: pitcher obviously is a huge factor in the game. But
14:42
Speaker 1: Seattle's got the better bullpen and the better offense out
14:44
Speaker 1: of these two teams. So and I think Seattle is
14:47
Speaker 1: generally the better team. So that line, I think the
14:50
Speaker 1: professional money seems to be thinking that line is just
14:52
Speaker 1: a little bit too high. Fifty percent of tickets were
14:54
Speaker 1: evenly split, but fifty six percent of the cash actually
14:57
Speaker 1: coming in on Seattle. I would have with that, I
15:00
Speaker 1: would lean to Seattle. Man. I just think there's just
15:02
Speaker 1: too much hype on Detroit. Everybody's saying Detroit's gonna do
15:06
Speaker 1: it with school ball. They did not win the other
15:08
Speaker 1: game with school ball on the mound. So, Jeffrey, what's
15:11
Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out. I know I started
15:14
Speaker 1: a bit early today. I just want to get the
15:16
Speaker 1: show done here. I don't have any plays today, but
15:18
Speaker 1: I am breaking down everything here. We had three college
15:21
Speaker 1: football games after this, to one of which I think
15:23
Speaker 1: is actually a really good game school Ball two point
15:27
Speaker 1: two one ERA in the season point eight to nine whip. Obviously,
15:30
Speaker 1: we know he's good. He's slightly worse on the road
15:32
Speaker 1: two point three ERA on the road, but of course
15:34
Speaker 1: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark here. Schoolbl's been really
15:39
Speaker 1: good in two playoffs starts. He's got at least seven
15:41
Speaker 1: innings in both each of them on the road, twenty
15:44
Speaker 1: three to four strikeout walk ratio. He's only allowed three
15:48
Speaker 1: or runs across that entire span one point eight four ERA.
15:52
Speaker 1: He's been really, really good. He did give up two
15:54
Speaker 1: on runs the in this series. Earlier in the series
15:58
Speaker 1: he pitched in game two, I think in this series
16:01
Speaker 1: at Seattle, but he didn't really give up anything besides
16:04
Speaker 1: those two home runs. Though maybe the home runs are
16:08
Speaker 1: a little bit of a concern, but they're also a
16:09
Speaker 1: little bit fluky, especially in this ballpark. It's not a
16:12
Speaker 1: home run conduce a ballpark, so it may not happen
16:14
Speaker 1: again here. So yeah, I'm not expecting Schooble to pitch poorly,
16:19
Speaker 1: but Seattle was able to win that game they pitched.
16:21
Speaker 1: Seattle won that game three to two. So I mean, again,
16:26
Speaker 1: it's not just Schooble here we're looking. We got to
16:28
Speaker 1: look at the teams as a hole here, and Seattle
16:31
Speaker 1: can hit better than Detroit can. So if the game
16:34
Speaker 1: is close, getting into the later parts of the game,
16:36
Speaker 1: I think the edge shifts to Seattle. Like, yes, I
16:40
Speaker 1: do think Detroit has the edge earlier in the game.
16:42
Speaker 1: I think they have the better of the starting pitching matchup,
16:44
Speaker 1: but again I think Seattle is the better offense that
16:46
Speaker 1: can kind of keep them in check a little bit.
16:48
Speaker 1: And then the bullpens I think go to Seattle. Both
16:51
Speaker 1: bullpens arrested. They're both fairly good, but Seattle's is the
16:54
Speaker 1: better of the two. Schooble against Seattle, though, he does
16:57
Speaker 1: have good numbers against them one hundred and thirty eight
16:59
Speaker 1: at bats, forty four to seven, strike at walker ratio
17:02
Speaker 1: really good, two seventeen average allowed, six fifty four ohps.
17:06
Speaker 1: No surprise, Schoobol does do well against Seattle. George Kirby
17:11
Speaker 1: getting the start for Seattle. I believe he pitched in
17:13
Speaker 1: Game one of this series. He's got a four point
17:16
Speaker 1: two to one r in the season, which is mediocre,
17:19
Speaker 1: but one point one to nine whip is pretty good.
17:22
Speaker 1: He's good at home three point three eighty r a
17:24
Speaker 1: in home. He's much better at home. His start in
17:29
Speaker 1: this series, he only went five innings, was a little
17:31
Speaker 1: bit inefficient. There ninety four pitches there, eight to one
17:34
Speaker 1: strike a walk, razio, tourn runs allowed, So I mean
17:37
Speaker 1: he was still pretty effective, but they did lose the
17:39
Speaker 1: game in eleven innings in that one, but he wasn't bad. However.
17:45
Speaker 1: The real concern about Kirby, I think, is that his
17:47
Speaker 1: numbers against Detroit are actually bad, and ninety nine career
17:51
Speaker 1: at bats thirty five to seven strike a walk ratio
17:54
Speaker 1: is really good though, so he has good command numbers
17:56
Speaker 1: against them, but they hit him two ninety three rebatting
18:00
Speaker 1: average off him in nine eighty six ops, which includes
18:03
Speaker 1: ten home runs, although five of them are Kerry Carpenter,
18:08
Speaker 1: go figure man. I have no idea Carpenter specifically, just
18:12
Speaker 1: Rex Kirby for whatever reason. A few of the other
18:15
Speaker 1: guys do some damage too, but a lot of it
18:18
Speaker 1: is him. So if Kirby is able to pitch around him,
18:21
Speaker 1: which he doesn't have any walks against him, which is weird.
18:24
Speaker 1: But if Kirby can somehow avoid Carpenter, he might wind
18:28
Speaker 1: up still doing okay. I mean, he did okay in
18:29
Speaker 1: the first game this year, so I'm not exactly expecting
18:33
Speaker 1: him to do badly. But yeah, I just can't do it. Man,
18:37
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to Seattle in this game overall. Just again,
18:41
Speaker 1: I think the overall picture here is not just schooble.
18:44
Speaker 1: Seattle's also really good at home. Remember fifty one and
18:47
Speaker 1: thirty Detroit forty one and forty on the road this year,
18:51
Speaker 1: so Seattle does have a home advantage here. Although I
18:55
Speaker 1: know these teams have split home and road in this series.
18:59
Speaker 1: Both teams are one and one in their home ballparks
19:02
Speaker 1: in the series, so I mean, really, anything could happen.
19:06
Speaker 1: It's it's probably gonna be a low scoring game. But
19:08
Speaker 1: when it's a low scoring game, you kind of want
19:10
Speaker 1: to look towards the underdog as well because it means
19:12
Speaker 1: it basically becomes a toss up, so you're getting value
19:16
Speaker 1: playing the underdog just because of that. And this is
19:18
Speaker 1: a low, low total man five and a half juice
19:22
Speaker 1: to the over. So even though I do think it's
19:24
Speaker 1: gonna be a low scoring game here, there's no way
19:26
Speaker 1: that I could go under five and a half. Man,
19:29
Speaker 1: And I know, I actually listened to some guys talking
19:31
Speaker 1: about the six and a half total number in Major
19:35
Speaker 1: League Baseball last night. I was listening to some stats
19:39
Speaker 1: on it, and I guess, actually it is a winning
19:41
Speaker 1: bet over the last nine seasons. I guess eight of
19:44
Speaker 1: the nine seasons, if you've played under all MLB totals
19:48
Speaker 1: that close six and a half, you'd actually win money,
19:50
Speaker 1: which is crazy because seven is the key number. I
19:53
Speaker 1: think it's that like mind fuck thing where it's like
19:55
Speaker 1: you don't want to go under the six and a
19:56
Speaker 1: half because it's low, and I just kind of have
19:58
Speaker 1: a rule where I never want to do it because
20:00
Speaker 1: it's not the best of the key number, but maybe
20:02
Speaker 1: I should in some cases. But five and a half,
20:05
Speaker 1: I mean, it's because it's a playoff game that is
20:08
Speaker 1: a ridiculously low total playoff game in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Yeah,
20:13
Speaker 1: I mean, I do expect it to be a low
20:14
Speaker 1: scoring game, but man, that's crazy. But if I was
20:16
Speaker 1: gonna play the game, I would take a shot with
20:19
Speaker 1: Seattle full game, money line, Nate, what's up man? Thanks
20:24
Speaker 1: for hanging out. Even though yes, I do think School
20:27
Speaker 1: has the upper hand, they're over Kirby. If you do
20:30
Speaker 1: want to play Detroit, I would do it in the
20:32
Speaker 1: first five innings, but you might have to pay a
20:34
Speaker 1: little bit more of a price for it, so it's
20:36
Speaker 1: a little bit pricey to do that. So I do
20:38
Speaker 1: think the value lies with Seattle. And of course I
20:42
Speaker 1: have Seattle winning the whole thing in my bracket, which
20:45
Speaker 1: may not have But I just don't think Detroit is
20:47
Speaker 1: that good of a team. Man. I think they were
20:49
Speaker 1: a little bit overperformed at the beginning of the season.
20:52
Speaker 1: I think Seattle is the more balanced team, which is
20:54
Speaker 1: part of the reason why I went with them. They've
20:57
Speaker 1: never done it before. Of course, Detroit is won a
20:59
Speaker 1: World Series or Seattle has never even been in a
21:02
Speaker 1: World Series. And of course Toronto is lying in wait
21:06
Speaker 1: right now because they already got past the Yankees. So
21:09
Speaker 1: Toronto is definitely gonna be a force to contend with
21:12
Speaker 1: as well. Toronto they can hit man. All right, let's
21:15
Speaker 1: go to college football. We have three games here tonight
21:19
Speaker 1: on the college football slate. I don't want to give
21:21
Speaker 1: out a play on any of these, but this first
21:23
Speaker 1: game up is the one really good game. At seven
21:26
Speaker 1: thirty PM, Eastern South Florida and North Texas. South Florida
21:30
Speaker 1: alreadys flipped from a two and a half point underdog
21:33
Speaker 1: to a one point favorite. But I don't know what
21:36
Speaker 1: that move really was. Maybe the two and a half
21:38
Speaker 1: was a look ahead or something, because it looks like
21:39
Speaker 1: the South Florida is the public side, but it looks
21:42
Speaker 1: like the money is coming in on the North Texas
21:45
Speaker 1: side more so. Sixty six percent of tickets on South Florida,
21:49
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of cash on South Florida public wants
21:53
Speaker 1: South Florida. I think just because they see this number
21:55
Speaker 1: twenty four in front of them, South Florida is ranked again,
21:58
Speaker 1: which I don't think they should be. I mean, if
21:59
Speaker 1: you watched my show early in the season with South
22:02
Speaker 1: Florida was ranked because they beat Boise and Florida, I
22:06
Speaker 1: was saying, nah, like they're not a top twenty five team, man,
22:09
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, They're probably like maybe a top forty team
22:14
Speaker 1: in college football. Pretty good offensively, not really not really
22:19
Speaker 1: sure about their defense necessarily. I think both these teams
22:22
Speaker 1: are good offensively, which I'll talk Well, we know that
22:25
Speaker 1: North Texas is very good offensively, which we'll talk about
22:28
Speaker 1: in a second, because I do think there might be
22:30
Speaker 1: a way to look at this total in this game.
22:32
Speaker 1: But South Florida, Yeah, I think basically they're just getting
22:37
Speaker 1: the public action because of the ranking number in front
22:42
Speaker 1: of them, and because yes, they have played the more
22:43
Speaker 1: difficult schedule. They played Boise, Florida and Miami to start
22:48
Speaker 1: the season, so yes, they have played a more difficult schedule.
22:51
Speaker 1: The Boise game, I mean maybe a little bit of
22:53
Speaker 1: a weird game because Boise wasn't used to playing in
22:56
Speaker 1: South Florida. Boise made a ton of mistakes in that game. Florida,
23:00
Speaker 1: I mean that game came down to kind of a
23:02
Speaker 1: toss up, Florida really struggling offensively, So I don't really know. Man,
23:07
Speaker 1: it's still a big win for South Florida. But then
23:09
Speaker 1: I did have Miami. I gave Miami out as a
23:11
Speaker 1: play after that against South Florida because I was like,
23:14
Speaker 1: there's just no way South Florida can continue having that
23:17
Speaker 1: level of effort that many games in a row. And
23:20
Speaker 1: everybody knew South Florida was good after they had that
23:22
Speaker 1: monumental win over Florida, and they over celebrated, so Miami
23:26
Speaker 1: took it to them. It was a bad spot for
23:28
Speaker 1: South Florida and since then, South Florida's played nobody. They
23:32
Speaker 1: played South Carolina State and Charlotte beat them both, but
23:35
Speaker 1: I mean, who cares. It's an FCS team and Charlotte
23:38
Speaker 1: is pretty bad, so I'm not gonna put much weight
23:42
Speaker 1: into that of the South Florida put up a shitload
23:44
Speaker 1: of points in those games. On North Texas I think
23:48
Speaker 1: has some advantages here though. In North Texas they're undefeated. Man,
23:51
Speaker 1: they're five and zero, but the public doesn't want anything
23:53
Speaker 1: to do with them. And yes, they haven't really played
23:56
Speaker 1: anybody yet exactly kind of. I mean, the best ponent
24:00
Speaker 1: they faced was probably Army, and Army took them into overtime.
24:04
Speaker 1: North Texas had a scare in overtime against Western Michigan,
24:08
Speaker 1: which that was a little bit too close for comfort.
24:11
Speaker 1: I mean, I think North Texas was a double digit
24:13
Speaker 1: favor and in that game, but both those overtime games
24:16
Speaker 1: are on the road. Army is a pretty competitive team,
24:19
Speaker 1: so I mean, I'm not gonna dock North Texas for
24:22
Speaker 1: any of that. North Texas bounced back with a win
24:24
Speaker 1: over South Alabama and they actually covered that game. But
24:29
Speaker 1: now North Texas is actually coming out of a bye,
24:32
Speaker 1: so North Texas actually has an extra week to prepare
24:34
Speaker 1: for this, and they're hosting this game on ESPN two,
24:38
Speaker 1: so they may very well use that buy to prepare something.
24:41
Speaker 1: But sometimes I don't love that because like, there's a
24:44
Speaker 1: reason why I don't love buys, and North Texas is
24:47
Speaker 1: in one of those spots where I don't think the
24:49
Speaker 1: buys is necessarily advantageous because North Texas is a is
24:52
Speaker 1: a an undefeated team and they went into the by
24:55
Speaker 1: five and zero. And I talk about this, when you
24:57
Speaker 1: go into a bye when everything's rolling, it's kind of bad,
25:00
Speaker 1: Like you don't want to do that. You want to
25:02
Speaker 1: keep playing, You want to keep that momentum going because like,
25:04
Speaker 1: what do you have to fix in the buy? You
25:06
Speaker 1: have nothing to fix. Although, yes, this is gonna be
25:08
Speaker 1: one of their biggest games on the entire schedule, it's
25:10
Speaker 1: a conference game, it's a ranked opponent coming in. They
25:13
Speaker 1: should be focused for this, they should be using the
25:15
Speaker 1: buy to prepare for this, But that buy could be
25:19
Speaker 1: a momentum stop or too man so I could see
25:22
Speaker 1: that by being both a benefit and I and a
25:26
Speaker 1: detriment to North Texas here. So I kind of worry
25:29
Speaker 1: about that a little bit. But North Texas definitely they
25:33
Speaker 1: could definitely score Man, as we saw they lit up
25:35
Speaker 1: Washington State, which was their biggest point total here. They've
25:39
Speaker 1: been a balanced attack here. They have some a couple
25:42
Speaker 1: of different rushers that have put up some nice run totals.
25:46
Speaker 1: They're mess to makers and pretty good as quarterback. They
25:49
Speaker 1: could score. I also think, not only do I think
25:53
Speaker 1: South Forid is a little bit overvalued here. I think
25:55
Speaker 1: North Texas is a little bit under the radar here.
25:58
Speaker 1: But South FORID I believe is never played at North
26:01
Speaker 1: Texas before because I think the conference shuffling has happened,
26:05
Speaker 1: and I think South Florida just has never played at Denton,
26:08
Speaker 1: Texas where you can check me if I'm wrong about that,
26:11
Speaker 1: but I think that's the case. So it is a
26:12
Speaker 1: little bit of a weird travel spot. And again I
26:14
Speaker 1: do think North Texas will be up for this also
26:16
Speaker 1: because it's an ESPN two game. They don't get these
26:19
Speaker 1: games that often. Man, being a smaller conference team like this,
26:22
Speaker 1: you get this isolated primetime Friday night game against a
26:25
Speaker 1: ranked opponent. I think the crowd's gonna be crazy. There's
26:28
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of green in the stands. I mean,
26:30
Speaker 1: both teams have green as their color, but you know
26:33
Speaker 1: the mean green is even greener and mean or so. Yeah,
26:38
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the crowd will be crazy for it.
26:40
Speaker 1: I think the crowd is gonna show up for this thing.
26:42
Speaker 1: So generally, yeah, I'm gonna lean to North Texas in
26:44
Speaker 1: this game for all those reasons, but I do worry
26:47
Speaker 1: that their schedule just hasn't been as strong self Florida.
26:51
Speaker 1: South Florida is more battle tested. Possibly the better way
26:55
Speaker 1: to even play this game is actually the over. But
26:57
Speaker 1: the totals already up from sixty five to six seven
27:00
Speaker 1: and a half. It is a crazy high total. It's
27:02
Speaker 1: one of the highest totals of the week. I think
27:04
Speaker 1: it's the second highest total of the week. Uh, seventy
27:07
Speaker 1: eight percent tickets eighty six percent of the cash on
27:09
Speaker 1: the over though, so the money kind of coming in
27:11
Speaker 1: on the over. I mean, we've lost a little bit
27:13
Speaker 1: of value on that. But I think this could be
27:15
Speaker 1: a shootout and both these teams could definitely score. I
27:18
Speaker 1: think both defenses are a little bit questionable. Uh so
27:22
Speaker 1: I would agree with an over. I don't know which
27:25
Speaker 1: one of those I prefer, to be honest, I like
27:27
Speaker 1: the North Texas side and the over like to some
27:30
Speaker 1: extent whichever one. Man, I mean, those are the ways
27:34
Speaker 1: that I would lean in that game. Maybe I prefer
27:36
Speaker 1: the side a little bit more, just because I am
27:39
Speaker 1: more of a side guy than a total guy, like
27:41
Speaker 1: by a pretty significant margin. So those are my feelings
27:46
Speaker 1: on that game. Do with that information? What you will?
27:50
Speaker 1: You keep winning money with North Texas, Jeffrey, Yeah, I
27:53
Speaker 1: mean I should have given a given them out as
27:56
Speaker 1: a play against Washington State. That was like on my
27:58
Speaker 1: short list that week, and I on the show and
28:00
Speaker 1: I almost gave it out as a play, and I
28:02
Speaker 1: guess I should have North Texas. Yeah, they're still under
28:05
Speaker 1: the radar, man, They're They're a good team. So yeah,
28:09
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens there. Both those teams are still
28:11
Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean, I just think South Florida shouldn't
28:14
Speaker 1: have that ranking next to their name. So we'll see,
28:18
Speaker 1: and if North Texas wins that game, they might creep
28:20
Speaker 1: into the rankings. Potentially we will see Fox Sports won
28:24
Speaker 1: at nine pm. We do have Rutgers and Washington. This
28:27
Speaker 1: is the last game on the We're going out of
28:30
Speaker 1: order as far as the rotation on the board here
28:31
Speaker 1: because both of these games are at nine pm. This
28:34
Speaker 1: is the Big ten matchup. This is the only big
28:37
Speaker 1: conference game of the night, unless you consider the Mountain
28:40
Speaker 1: West to be a big conference, which I do not.
28:44
Speaker 1: Rutgers of Washington they had I think they played on
28:46
Speaker 1: a Friday night last year too at Rutgers. It was
28:48
Speaker 1: a weird game that was low scoring, but I think
28:51
Speaker 1: both teams had a lot of offensive yardage in the
28:54
Speaker 1: game and it was just bizarre that it was so
28:55
Speaker 1: low scoring. I believe Rutgers won twenty one to eighteen
28:59
Speaker 1: last year at home. Very very strange game. But Rutgers
29:04
Speaker 1: now has to fly to the Pacific Coast to face Washington,
29:07
Speaker 1: so right up the bat, I'm thinking that's not exactly
29:10
Speaker 1: a great spot for Rutgers. Rutgers coming into this game, though,
29:14
Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye so and I think
29:17
Speaker 1: this is an advantageous buy, so maybe that'll actually help
29:21
Speaker 1: with the travel a little bit, although the travel is
29:22
Speaker 1: still a concern because they have not played further west
29:27
Speaker 1: than they Central time zone. Yet this entire season. They
29:30
Speaker 1: played their first four games at home in New Jersey,
29:33
Speaker 1: and then they went and they played at Minnesota, and
29:35
Speaker 1: they lost by three points against a pretty mediocre Minnesota team.
29:39
Speaker 1: They did go into a buye after that, though, so
29:41
Speaker 1: they went into a bye on a losing note. And
29:44
Speaker 1: I think when that happens, you use the buye to
29:46
Speaker 1: your advantage and you fix what's wrong. So I think
29:49
Speaker 1: the bye came at a good time for Rutgers and
29:51
Speaker 1: it's gonna help them with the travel. Maybe they'll get
29:53
Speaker 1: out there a little bit early and adjust to the
29:55
Speaker 1: time zone or whatever. Rutgers, they'll be hungry, at least
29:58
Speaker 1: looking for a win. The buy might help them, but
30:00
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a weird environment for them, having to
30:02
Speaker 1: go out there for a night game on the Pacific Coast.
30:05
Speaker 1: I talk about that East Coast teams going out to
30:07
Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast. I know Rutgers. I'm assuming they had
30:10
Speaker 1: to do that at least once or twice last year,
30:12
Speaker 1: but it's still not something they're used to. It can
30:15
Speaker 1: fuck with your biological clock because you're playing late at
30:18
Speaker 1: night based on your biological clocks. So I worry about that.
30:22
Speaker 1: I also worry about Rutgers just as far as their schedule,
30:25
Speaker 1: Like they beat two MAC teams, Ohio and Miami Ohio
30:28
Speaker 1: and Ohio, I mean, Ohio is fairly good for a
30:33
Speaker 1: MAC team at least Miami Ohio is not good. And
30:36
Speaker 1: then Norfolk State it was the other the other team
30:41
Speaker 1: they beat an FCS team, so not impressive there. And
30:43
Speaker 1: then they lost both Big Ten matchups so far against Iowa,
30:47
Speaker 1: and Iowa is a pretty solid team, and then Minnesota,
30:50
Speaker 1: who's not as good as Iowa. So not great performances
30:53
Speaker 1: from Rutgers. Their Rutgers defense is a bit questionable here. Man.
30:57
Speaker 1: You kind of think of them as more of a
30:59
Speaker 1: defensive team this year. They're kind of more of an
31:01
Speaker 1: offensive team with Calli kmahon so though they do most
31:04
Speaker 1: of their damage with him through the air. So they
31:06
Speaker 1: were a little bit one dimensional. And this Washington team
31:09
Speaker 1: is pretty solid and they're pretty under the radar right now.
31:12
Speaker 1: They're four and one. I know, they haven't really had
31:15
Speaker 1: a particularly difficult schedule either. I mean, obviously Ohio State
31:18
Speaker 1: is very difficult. They played pretty well in that Ohio
31:21
Speaker 1: State game, they lost it at home twenty four to six.
31:24
Speaker 1: It was a weird spot for Ohio State. I thought
31:26
Speaker 1: Washington might cover in that game because Ohio State had
31:28
Speaker 1: to go out to the Pacific Coast. Didn't like the spot.
31:31
Speaker 1: But other than that, Washington hasn't really shown a whole lot.
31:34
Speaker 1: Beat in Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, and Maryland.
31:38
Speaker 1: I mean, none of those teams are that good, although
31:40
Speaker 1: they showed something last week because they actually had to
31:43
Speaker 1: make a comeback against Maryland last week. Maryland had the
31:46
Speaker 1: lead in that game in Washington I believe came all
31:49
Speaker 1: the way back and won late in the game after
31:51
Speaker 1: a huge comeback. So on the one end, yeah, Washington
31:55
Speaker 1: had to put up a big effort. It was a
31:57
Speaker 1: weird spot for them going to the East Coast after
32:00
Speaker 1: playing Ohio State. It wasn't exactly a great spot for Washington.
32:04
Speaker 1: Washington did not cover the game, but that might focus
32:07
Speaker 1: Washington a little bit more because when you when you're
32:09
Speaker 1: a favorite like that and you have a scare that
32:11
Speaker 1: can like focus you a little bit more. And of
32:13
Speaker 1: course they're hosting a Friday night game, so they'll probably
32:15
Speaker 1: show up for this game, but they're on a short week.
32:18
Speaker 1: They played on Saturday. Man, so Rutgers does have extra
32:22
Speaker 1: rest here. Rutgers coming off a bye Rutgers is a
32:24
Speaker 1: pretty big rest edge here, and Washington did just play
32:27
Speaker 1: on the East Coast, So both these teams are flying
32:30
Speaker 1: out to the Pacific coast from the East Coast, I
32:32
Speaker 1: would imagine here, so both teams are having to make
32:35
Speaker 1: that cross country trip and readjust to the time zone.
32:38
Speaker 1: So I think that kind of takes some of that
32:40
Speaker 1: advantage away from Washington. Like I think Washington would have
32:44
Speaker 1: more of an advantage if they were just staying out
32:46
Speaker 1: of the Pacific coast here, but they're not, and they
32:49
Speaker 1: do have a big game up next man against Michigan,
32:51
Speaker 1: so they do have a That's a big game Washington
32:54
Speaker 1: versus Michigan. I mean, it's the uh rematch of the
32:59
Speaker 1: title game for a couple of years ago, and it's
33:01
Speaker 1: I think it's kind of been this weird like rivalry
33:04
Speaker 1: over the last few years. So that is a big game.
33:07
Speaker 1: I think going to overlook a game against Rutgers that's
33:09
Speaker 1: on national TV on Friday Night that they get to
33:12
Speaker 1: host in primetime, I don't necessarily think so, but that
33:16
Speaker 1: Michigan game is looming and it is big. But I
33:18
Speaker 1: think the look ahead matters a little bit less than
33:21
Speaker 1: what you did before that, right, Like I keep talking
33:23
Speaker 1: about that. I think hangovers, letdown spots, whatever, like what
33:26
Speaker 1: you did last has more of an effect than what
33:30
Speaker 1: you might be looking forward to, because the thing you're
33:31
Speaker 1: looking forward to is all mental, whereas the stuff that
33:34
Speaker 1: just happened is both mental and physical. So I think
33:37
Speaker 1: that has more of an effect. So where do I
33:40
Speaker 1: land on this game? Well, I would probably lean to Rutgers, man,
33:44
Speaker 1: I would just go with them having the extra rest
33:47
Speaker 1: with the buye, but I just don't really want want
33:49
Speaker 1: I don't want to do it when they're having to
33:50
Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast. It's a high total
33:54
Speaker 1: in this one too, up to sixty and a half,
33:56
Speaker 1: which is interesting with the money's coming in on the
33:58
Speaker 1: under in this one, seventy percent of tickets on the over,
34:01
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash on the under. I
34:04
Speaker 1: could kind of see this being an under game and
34:06
Speaker 1: Washington they played decent defense. Rutgers doesn't though, So I
34:11
Speaker 1: don't know, man. Uh, It's it's kind of a contrast
34:16
Speaker 1: of styles here, where yeah, Washington plays better defense, Rutgers
34:20
Speaker 1: is more on the offensive side of things, which usually,
34:26
Speaker 1: I like, I like to go with the team that
34:27
Speaker 1: plays the better defense usually, but not when you're laying
34:29
Speaker 1: ten and a half points, and in a spot like this,
34:32
Speaker 1: Washington on a short week, Rutgers has more than a
34:34
Speaker 1: weak extra rest here. Both teams are having to go
34:38
Speaker 1: east coast back to west coast. Yeah, I mean, I
34:41
Speaker 1: think Rutgers is the way that I would lean on
34:43
Speaker 1: the side there. Washington is public eighty seven percent of
34:46
Speaker 1: tickets and cash, laying ten and a half. I mean,
34:49
Speaker 1: if you're gonna play the game, I would probably take
34:51
Speaker 1: the shot with Rutgers plus the points, but certainly not
34:55
Speaker 1: going to be a play for me. And I am
34:56
Speaker 1: rarely gonna want to play one of those road teams
34:59
Speaker 1: in one of those weird travel like environment spots like that,
35:02
Speaker 1: So I don't love it obviously. That's all right, Jordan,
35:05
Speaker 1: congratulations on the new job. I probably need one. Maybe
35:10
Speaker 1: I should just start betting. I'm also thinking about changing
35:12
Speaker 1: the name of this show because the SEO just sucks
35:15
Speaker 1: with Better Off Dead. I know it's a clever name,
35:17
Speaker 1: but my dad jokes and puns can only get me
35:21
Speaker 1: so far. I think I might need to change the
35:22
Speaker 1: name of the show. But then I would need new
35:26
Speaker 1: visuals and stuff, new logos and stuff. I don't know, man,
35:29
Speaker 1: I had to figure something out. And then finally, we
35:32
Speaker 1: also have a Fresno State in Colorado State on CBS
35:35
Speaker 1: Sports also at nine pm this Mountain West matchup here.
35:40
Speaker 1: Colorado State is bad, dude, They're bad. People remember them
35:44
Speaker 1: being fairly good. They've been to a lot of bowls
35:47
Speaker 1: in the last couple of decades, but they're not very
35:50
Speaker 1: good right now. Fresno surprisingly is actually looking fairly good
35:54
Speaker 1: this year. Like I didn't think they were that good.
35:56
Speaker 1: They got blown out in Week zero, I believe against Kansas,
36:00
Speaker 1: which was not a good sign. But Fresno they've kind
36:03
Speaker 1: of adapted pretty quickly. Man. They have a current Warner's
36:06
Speaker 1: son as they're a quarterback there, EJ. Warren or one
36:08
Speaker 1: of his sons. I don't know if he's necessarily that good,
36:11
Speaker 1: and he's new. He was new to this system coming
36:14
Speaker 1: in here. I think they brought him over from I
36:16
Speaker 1: forget what other school he came over from. But he's
36:19
Speaker 1: adapted pretty quickly and Fresno. The thing about that is
36:22
Speaker 1: they've taken the load off of Warner because they can
36:24
Speaker 1: run the football Man, this Fresno rushing attack has been
36:28
Speaker 1: pretty good, and their defense has actually been pretty solid
36:30
Speaker 1: to surprising. It's a Fresno They're looking like they're gonna
36:34
Speaker 1: contend from the Mountain West here, man, Like I think
36:37
Speaker 1: it's gonna actually come down to Fresno and Boise. I mean,
36:40
Speaker 1: we'll talk about UNLV for Saturday. I'll talk about them
36:42
Speaker 1: tonight probably, And I have some things that I didn't
36:45
Speaker 1: say about that Miami Ohio play against UNLV that I
36:48
Speaker 1: will talk about tonight because I didn't even realize how
36:51
Speaker 1: screwed I got on that loss on Miami Ohio. But UNLV,
36:55
Speaker 1: I think they're a total, total fraud, which we'll talk
36:58
Speaker 1: about later tonight. San Diego State, I just don't think
37:02
Speaker 1: they're that good either. I know the record looks okay
37:04
Speaker 1: right now, but boys, he's playing more difficult schedule. Boys,
37:07
Speaker 1: he is still the team to beat in this conference
37:09
Speaker 1: in my opinion. But Fresno I think is in the
37:11
Speaker 1: mix right now. And Fresno has shown something here man,
37:14
Speaker 1: with the fact that they were able to win road
37:16
Speaker 1: games in Corvallis against Oregon State. I know Oregon State's
37:19
Speaker 1: not that good, but that's still not an easy place
37:21
Speaker 1: to play. And then they went out to Hawaii and
37:23
Speaker 1: beat Hawaii out on the island in Hawaii. So that's
37:28
Speaker 1: a pretty decent sign too, although I know not those
37:31
Speaker 1: teams aren't necessarily that good. Hawaii's kind of on the
37:33
Speaker 1: upswing though Hawaii might be a Bowl team this year.
37:36
Speaker 1: And other than that, yeah, Fresno they beat Georgia Southern Southern,
37:40
Speaker 1: who's an FCS team, and Nevada. I mean, those teams
37:43
Speaker 1: are not very good. Those three teams are all pretty bad,
37:47
Speaker 1: but Fresno, I mean, they're still looking like they're not
37:49
Speaker 1: that bad. But now, yes, they do have to go
37:50
Speaker 1: into elevation here, although the other travel spots wound up
37:54
Speaker 1: being okay for them, but elevation may be a little
37:57
Speaker 1: bit of a different thing. Although I think they're used
37:59
Speaker 1: to it because they're in the Mountain West here, so
38:02
Speaker 1: Colorado State, both of these teams have been in the
38:03
Speaker 1: Mountain West for a while. But it's still a little
38:06
Speaker 1: bit of a weird spot. It's a little bit tricky
38:07
Speaker 1: whenever you have to go to Colorado State or Wyoming
38:10
Speaker 1: just because they're at high elevation, you're going into the
38:12
Speaker 1: mountains there. Maybe Utah state as well, so that is
38:16
Speaker 1: something to consider there as far as that. As far
38:19
Speaker 1: as Fresno's schedule is concerned, Fresno also hasn't had a
38:22
Speaker 1: bye yet. They've played six games so far. They might
38:26
Speaker 1: be the only team that's played six games so far.
38:28
Speaker 1: Maybe they're not. But they played in week zero and
38:31
Speaker 1: they still haven't had a buy, which is crazy. They
38:33
Speaker 1: have a bye after this game, so maybe they're gonna
38:38
Speaker 1: be looking forward to that buy already. I don't know, man,
38:39
Speaker 1: They're on a short week here. They played Nevada on Saturday,
38:43
Speaker 1: although they barely beat them, and Nevada's not good Fresno.
38:48
Speaker 1: This is I think a good thing for Fresno is
38:49
Speaker 1: the fact that they were a double digit favorite in
38:51
Speaker 1: this game against Nevada and they played pretty lack luster.
38:55
Speaker 1: They got a twenty to three lead in the game
38:57
Speaker 1: and they never scored again and they almost lost game.
39:00
Speaker 1: They only won by three, and it was a three
39:02
Speaker 1: point game for a while there at the end of
39:04
Speaker 1: the game, So or a little bit concerned for the
39:08
Speaker 1: last couple of minutes of the game was a three
39:09
Speaker 1: point game at least, I should say a little bit concerning.
39:12
Speaker 1: But Fresno, I think they didn't really show up for
39:14
Speaker 1: that game, so I do think that's going to focus
39:15
Speaker 1: Fresno a little bit. As far as when you're coming
39:18
Speaker 1: off a game where you almost lost as a double
39:20
Speaker 1: digit favorite, I think it will refocus you. But they
39:23
Speaker 1: got a short week to prepare for this, and they
39:25
Speaker 1: do have San Diego State next, so it could actually
39:28
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a look ahead, although I
39:29
Speaker 1: know it's after a bye, but san Diego State is
39:31
Speaker 1: playing well so far, although I think their schedule has
39:34
Speaker 1: been weak Colorado State, it's possible Colorado State is not
39:38
Speaker 1: going to attract much attention here because they're sitting at
39:41
Speaker 1: one and four. They haven't played a particularly difficult schedule, though,
39:46
Speaker 1: I mean they played at Washington that was their most
39:48
Speaker 1: difficult game. They did lose a road game last time
39:50
Speaker 1: out against San Diego State, who is at least playing
39:53
Speaker 1: well right now. Doesn't look good that they lost to
39:57
Speaker 1: UTSA or the UTSA is a bit on the ups,
40:00
Speaker 1: although that was Colorado State at home, so maybe he's
40:02
Speaker 1: still not great. And then they did lose to Washington State,
40:05
Speaker 1: who's probably not that good this year, So I don't know.
40:08
Speaker 1: Colorado State. The only win they have is a close
40:11
Speaker 1: win at home against FCS Northern Colorado, so that's not
40:14
Speaker 1: necessarily a good sign, although Northern Colorado in state little
40:18
Speaker 1: brother will get up for a game like that. But
40:20
Speaker 1: Colorado State very unimpressive resume so far. They're not that
40:23
Speaker 1: good this year. But they are gonna going to host
40:26
Speaker 1: a primetime CBS Sports game here, so they at least
40:30
Speaker 1: have some advantages here. And they do have one extra
40:33
Speaker 1: day of preparation here because they played on Friday last
40:37
Speaker 1: week on the road that was that San Diego State
40:39
Speaker 1: loss or his Fresno has a shorter week because they
40:42
Speaker 1: played on Saturday, so slight advantage to Colorado State for
40:46
Speaker 1: that reason. Colorado State also changed quarterbacks. It looks like
40:50
Speaker 1: I don't know if Fowler Nikolosi got hurt or if
40:54
Speaker 1: he just wasn't getting the job done, but they switched
40:56
Speaker 1: over to brussol I mean, the numbers out of their
40:58
Speaker 1: quarterback I haven't really changed much though, so I don't
41:01
Speaker 1: know if that's really gonna have that much of an effect.
41:04
Speaker 1: And they lost both those games anyway, but we'll see
41:07
Speaker 1: them in It looks think they're rushing attack maybe got
41:09
Speaker 1: a little bit better over the last couple of games.
41:12
Speaker 1: We'll see you though. Fresno still is the better rushing
41:15
Speaker 1: attack though, so they may they should be able to
41:18
Speaker 1: do that, but because Fresno is more of a running
41:20
Speaker 1: and defensive team, laying six points six and a half
41:24
Speaker 1: points on the road a little bit questionable. Fresno is
41:28
Speaker 1: a little bit public. They're down from six and a
41:30
Speaker 1: half to six basically on the line, fifty seven percent
41:32
Speaker 1: of tickets on them, fifty two percent of the cash
41:35
Speaker 1: coming in on Colorado State though, so the money is
41:37
Speaker 1: coming in on the Colorado State side, and the totals
41:40
Speaker 1: law it's up a little bit from forty six and
41:42
Speaker 1: a half to forty seven and a half, by far
41:44
Speaker 1: the lowest total out of all the games here, seventy
41:47
Speaker 1: percent of tickets and only fifty seven percent of cash
41:49
Speaker 1: on the over. I wouldn't really disagree with an under
41:52
Speaker 1: in this one either, though, because Colorado State, I mean,
41:54
Speaker 1: they're just a struggling team. Their offense isn't very good,
41:57
Speaker 1: and Fresno, if they're gonna run the ball, it's gonna
42:00
Speaker 1: shorten the game, man, you know, it's gonna slow the
42:02
Speaker 1: game down. So you might see fewer offensive plays, fewer possessions,
42:07
Speaker 1: in this game, and Fresno likes to play deepfense, so
42:10
Speaker 1: I could see this being an ugly game, a low
42:13
Speaker 1: scoring game. I mean, that would make sense to me,
42:15
Speaker 1: so under might be worth a look. But because it
42:17
Speaker 1: may be a low scoring game, I think it's gonna
42:19
Speaker 1: be difficult for Fresno to to ask them to cover
42:22
Speaker 1: that number there. So I would lean to call her
42:25
Speaker 1: out of state plus of points as well, but a
42:27
Speaker 1: little bit tricky. I mean, out of all these games here, man,
42:30
Speaker 1: it's difficult to even say, like what I like the
42:32
Speaker 1: best out of any of these games because they're I
42:35
Speaker 1: don't love any of it. So I mean, obviously I'm
42:37
Speaker 1: not giving out a play at any of these, but
42:39
Speaker 1: hopefully that's helpful. And then those are my thoughts on
42:41
Speaker 1: all those games. At least when I came into this,
42:43
Speaker 1: I was thinking North Texas would be my strongest lean
42:46
Speaker 1: the North Texas side out of all these games. Maybe
42:50
Speaker 1: it is, but I don't know, man, it's just a
42:52
Speaker 1: little bit difficult to say. But yeah, that home team,
42:55
Speaker 1: you know, the home environment on a primetime game like
42:57
Speaker 1: that against a team that's ranked and old ranked, Yeah,
43:01
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe that would be the strongest lean that
43:05
Speaker 1: I would have here, but it's close. I mean, I
43:07
Speaker 1: don't really feel that strongly about any of it, but
43:10
Speaker 1: those are my opinions here. Hopefully that helps. Man. That's
43:14
Speaker 1: gonna do it for the show. Thanks for hanging out again, guys.
43:16
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Jordan Jeffrey, Nate, Jordan Jeffries. That sounds
43:21
Speaker 1: like somebody, right, Jim Jefferies is the comedian Jordan Jeffries.
43:25
Speaker 1: Jordan Jefferson is who I'm thinking of, right, that was
43:29
Speaker 1: that's Justin Jefferson's brother, right, Jordan Jefferson, he was the quarterback.
43:34
Speaker 1: They both went to LSU. But Jordan Jefferson, he's Justin
43:37
Speaker 1: Jefferson's older brother, right, that's his name, Jordan. You know
43:40
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. He was LSU's quarterback. I think
43:42
Speaker 1: he might have won a championship, but he was never
43:45
Speaker 1: a college championship. But he was never really good in
43:47
Speaker 1: the NFL. Am I right about that? And maybe I'm wrong.
43:49
Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe I'm Mandela affecting and it's miss
43:52
Speaker 1: and I'm misremembering everything. I don't know. I'm ramblin. That's
43:56
Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn it town on Twitter, Learn it
43:58
Speaker 1: Tone on Instagram. I'll be back tonight with better Off. Dad, Like,
44:02
Speaker 1: subscribe to the show here man in college football tonight.
44:05
Speaker 1: It's a long show all the time, so I gotta
44:08
Speaker 1: get my affairs in order for that. Show will probably
44:10
Speaker 1: wind up with I'm guessing for or so plays tomorrow.
44:13
Speaker 1: We'll see. There are a few games that I do like,
44:15
Speaker 1: but I gotta kind of narrow it down and figure
44:17
Speaker 1: it out, so we'll see. But yeah, that'll be tonight.
44:21
Speaker 1: I like, subscribe to the channel here, give me your
44:23
Speaker 1: good review on iTunes or Apple and Spotify. That helps soon.
44:28
Speaker 1: Listening over there helps me as well. Covered in you
44:30
Speaker 1: because my yuke channel on YouTube ukulele covers man and
44:34
Speaker 1: then we and we're doing some Halloween theme covers this month,
44:37
Speaker 1: and then Patreon, dot com, slash learn to toad check
44:40
Speaker 1: it all out and you can get bonus yuk content
44:42
Speaker 1: over there. That's gonna do it for now. Peace out
44:46
Speaker 1: for now. You like Missouri. I know I gave on
44:50
Speaker 1: Missouri midweek. I was like, this is gonna be one
44:53
Speaker 1: of my plays. I'm not one hundred percent sure that
44:56
Speaker 1: I love it as that like top tier play that
44:59
Speaker 1: I was thinking of. What but situationally I think it
45:02
Speaker 1: is that it is, so we'll talk about it. I'll
45:03
Speaker 1: talk about it on the show. I think it probably
45:06
Speaker 1: is still gonna be one of my plays, but we'll
45:08
Speaker 1: talk about it on the show tonight. Hopefully, if people
45:10
Speaker 1: took it already, they got one of the better numbers
45:12
Speaker 1: on it. I think you'll still be able to get
45:13
Speaker 1: three on it though, if you like it. Not. Jeff George,
45:16
Speaker 1: although I do remember him, yeah, I mean, I think
45:20
Speaker 1: he kind of had his career resurrected in Oakland, right
45:24
Speaker 1: or where maybe it was vague or not vegue La
45:27
Speaker 1: at the time, wherever the Raiders were at the time.
45:30
Speaker 1: But yeah, I remember Jeff George watching him a little
45:32
Speaker 1: bit when I was young. But yeah, that's gonna do
45:34
Speaker 1: it for now. I'll be back tonight with college football
45:38
Speaker 1: piece for now, guys,