Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview

Transcript

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our NFL Playoffs wild Card Tuesday NFL episode. I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: All right, we finished our season long contest with our
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: friends at BET three sixty five. The final week, Simon
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: and I were two and three in the contest. We
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: finished fifty and forty overall good four five hundred and
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: thirty first place, top four and a half percent out
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: of twelve thousand entries.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: We do have a winner in the contest.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We're giving away forty thousand dollars to this person, Jesse Goldberg,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: a true genius who finished a seventy one percent against
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the spread. He is now forty thousand dollars richer. Matt
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Mitchell has said this a thousand times, like he cannot
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: believe we had a contest.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: We're in total for free.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: We gave away one hundred and twenty thousand dollars in
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: cash prizes throughout the year. Congrats to Jesse Goldberg. We
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: paid out the top ten finishers, including our second and
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: third place finishers, who won ten thousand dollars and five
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars. And of course, because it's betting, and because
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: it's this podcast, the final outcomes involves a gross, disgusting,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: horrendous bad beat. We will get to that at the
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: end of the show. Simon, You're not gonna believe this one.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: On Sunday show, we previewed the wild card Games. A
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: lot of lines we liked have already moved in Sunday,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: which is why you need to listen to the Sunday Show.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: You want to get the best of the number.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we will of course get to ours,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Simon says, and an exec decision. On Thursday, we will
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: finalize our big balls better the week, our Foxhole, our
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: money line. Let's bring in my co host, my bff,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, professional better and birthday boy, you
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: say your birthday. We're gonna have a good time, Simon
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Hunter Heado, soymon, we love you so much.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Happy birthday, buddy.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Thank you, Chad, always always nice. Making it another year,
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: you know, another trip around the sun.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: You did it.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Listen and by the way, it's not it's not easy
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: for you. I'm I'm impressed you made it.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: Me too, especially after surviving four hour delay and it'll
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: have to get back to Jersey. So is this the
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: worst start to a birthday ever? But no, it's all
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: good now, made it back to Jersey, all ive and well.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: We are onto the playoffs simon this us where we
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: make our money. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power the odds on hundreds
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: of bets to give you a chance to win more.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boost specific markets, your winnings and
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: even parlays, and they don't stop there, keeping out for
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible Super Boost.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites Live on YouTube. For those enjoying
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. All right,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: before we get to the wild Card Games, we do
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of housekeek being our Week eighteen
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: winners for the last week of the weekly contest. Hardest
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: week of the contest for the whole season, by the way,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: thirty five entries just thirty five, one, five and zero
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: a tie for first place. Congrats to Terry Landers and
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Dave Nyc enjoy the cash that was the last week
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: of our giveaway.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Our last Producer's Couple ward goes.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: To Cade Jackson sixty six six. Congrats, Cad, you finished
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the last week of the eighteen
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: week contest going on to five, missing the tiebreaker by
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: a zillion yards. Cade, please email Matt Mitchell at podcast
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Don't forget this Sunday, It's coming up. Simon and I
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Together again Live Shepherd and the Knucklehead Poe Boken, New Jersey.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: We got a watch party going on for the games
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: beginning at four pm. Di'mond and I go live at
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty. Also an event Saturday with Kerner, Sean Kerner, Stuckey, Me,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, Nick Giffen, the whole Gang four o'clock Saturday
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: the thirteenth. RSVP to these events, check out the links
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: in the episode description. All Right, Simon, I know Sunday
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: was a sweat because we needed the Bills to cover
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: to go two and three in the contest. I also
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: had the under in the game, but we also needed
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill to get thirty three yards to win the
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: receiving title. Fortunately he did it early in the game.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: He did not make a sweat. He beat Ceedee Lamb
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: by fifty yards to win that title. Finished with seventeen
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: ninety nine.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: We cashed. We cashed nine to one Tyreek Hill ticket.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: What do you think of that.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Needed it needed bat Yeah, that game had a stupid
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: amount of money on it. And when I left from
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: flight to get back here, I literally got on the
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: plane I'm taking off when two got the ball back.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: So I guess they had stopped Josh Allen on fourth
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: and one and my plane is going up into the air.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: So two is getting the ball back, and I'm like,
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: oh my god, now I'm not gonna know for the
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: next five hours or six hours, whatever it was. It
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: was awful. But yeah, the public's been winning, we keep saying,
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: And yeah, that was ice on the cake. That was
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: one of my bigger bets earlier in the year where
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: the Bills win that division. I thought it was dead
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: for sure, and our guy and Mike Vrabel once again
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: saved our season coming back fourteen points down in the
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: fourth quarter Will Levis and gave us a chance at
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: this crazy run. So yeah, anyone that listened to us
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: three four weeks ago and bet the Bills to make
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: this kind of run, I think it was like plus
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: four hundred plus three fifty or something like that, but crazy,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: like this Bill's run has been insane. They've been playing
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: playoff games for five weeks now, so and any team's
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: prepared for this playoff run, it's definite a Bills team.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: More on the Bills to come later in the show.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: We cashed Tybreek Hilled nine to one to win the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: receiving yardage title. Also we got Jalen Carter seven to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: one ish to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Will Anderson.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: He made a run at the end. He did not
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: get any more sacks on Sunday. We can be fingers
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: crossed that Carter, who had the shortest odds by a
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: mile to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, still wins
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the award, even though the Eagles kind of limped to
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the end of the season. Our records for the end
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: of the year, we just gave the record we had
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: for our weekly fhaves five. Our Foxhole went ten and eight,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Our Simon Says went eight, eight and two. Our exec
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Decisions went ten and eight. Unfortunately, our big Balls bet
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: of the Week went seven and eleven. We had seven
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: straight losses from week eight to week fourteen. Look, this
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: was a year where favorites covered at an inordinate rate
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: unlike we've ever seen before. And our big balls Better
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of the Week is usually going to be on a
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: pretty big underdog where we like the.
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: Spot so and now justs and Carolina Belts.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but by the way, and that and by the way,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: like that week eight to week fourteen is about when
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that run for favorites was at its peak. So you know,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: it doesn't it's not surprising that that's that's that's when
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: it happened. You mentioned Mike Vrabel, Simon before we came
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: on the air today Mike Frabel was fired by the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. We got to pour one out from Mike
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Frable MVP and that stands for Mike Rabel Podcast because
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: we have made some serious coin backing Mike Vrabel while
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: he has been with the Tennessee Titans.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: I love the guy. I think back to.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: They played the Patriots Tom Brady's last game Playoffs at Tennessee.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Brady threw a pick at the end of the game,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: but the reason the Patriots were in such a dire
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: state at the end of that game is because Rabel
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: was pulling a Belichick playbook in terms of using the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: rules to call timeouts, take penalties, call timeouts, run out
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the clock.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Just brilliant strategy.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: The way he managed the clock and what he did
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: with the roster that was never top flight in Tennessee.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I'd want this guy coach on my team in two seconds.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, gonna be one of those guys that you're anyone
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: that has a coach now they don't really believe in.
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: Or if you have a coach I just left, you
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: want Rabel. I mean, go look at the quarterbacks. He
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: just did what Chada talked about with it's like Tannehill
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: probably the best quarterback out of the bunch, Right, Is
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: that really saying that much? Because that's I mean, Tannel
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: is an l right guy, but no one thinks of
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: that guy has ever been a top ten guy in
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: this league. So you know the fact that he did
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: all that with Mariota types and you know are different
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: plethora of quarterbacks that filled in there, it's pretty incredible.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, like we say all the time, like he's
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: just he's got that Tomlin effect. He's an incredible motivator.
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Just this year, you know, I wish I wish they
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: had done what I thought they were gonna do before
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: the season, which is like really actually tank it right,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: like Trey Tanneill, you know, get rid of Derrick Henry,
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: really let the young guys play, and you know, just
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: because of Rabel, they kind of believed in the team.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: They're like, no, we can make another run. It wasn't there.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: They're just they just weren't not a good team this season.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: So they were good to us. We found their rhythm.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: They were just good at home, bad on the road.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: And that's exactly what they were this season. As a dog.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: They were good to us at home.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Mike Rabel finishes his career with the Titans fifty one,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: fifty and three against the spread. But crazy that that
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: included twenty seven and thirty straight up as an underdog.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: That included thirty one, twenty four and two against the
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: spread as a dog, Which is why we love Mike
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Rabel because he covered and won as a dog. His
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and thirty straight up mark as a dog
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: makes him the third most profitable of one hundred and
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: fifty coaches in the past twenty years, behind interestingly Tom
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Cable formerly of the Raiders, short small sample size, and
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin, but he has been the most profitable coach
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: as a dog on the money line since he was
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: tired in twenty eighteen. Congrats Mike Vrabel, great run. You
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have the respect of the betting community. We will follow
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: you wherever you go. Time to get to the wild
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: card round. My friend, Yeah, first came up Leve Leonard Houston.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday night at Sunday Sunday night.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: It opened at two. My first instinct, I said to
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: you was Houston. Your first instinct was Cleveland. It moved
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: down to one and a half is now moved up
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: from one and a half back to two to two
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and a half. I have a to use your very
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: big word, big word for the birthday, boy, plethora.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: I have a plethora.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Did I use that right?
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: You did?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: You nailed it, shocking, Yeah, no, you nailed it smarter
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: with age, my friend, It's what happens you get older.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: All you got left is your vocabulary.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: It must have been on my You know, you turn
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: your page in your calendar. You get every day, you
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: got a new word, the word of the day.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: That's your word for your birthday.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you some stats before you tell
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: me why you like Cleveland, because I know you do.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Texans were six and three at home this year.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Kay One of those losses was without the J.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Shroud, when Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper had the game
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: of their lives and Cooper had two hundred and sixty
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: five yards receiving.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Again, CJ.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Shroud didn't play CJ at home in eight games, twenty
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: five one hundred yards passing, nine yards per completion, seventeen touchdowns,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: three hundred and ten yards per game, one oh eight
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: passer rating. The Browns defense on the road average rushing
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: yards gained is nearly two yards higher, gave up twice
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: as many touchdown passes nearly three yards more per pass
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: attempt in one fewer game on the road than at home,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So eight games versus nine games, they gave up one
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: hundred and twelve more points and allowed thirty points per game.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: They went three and five on the road. I know
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: what's a new season. I know playoffs are different. I
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: know CJ.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Stroud is a rookie. As Jay Cutler might say, don't care.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: You should, though you should. It is. It's a real thing.
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: It's just really tough as a rookie playing in the
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: playoffs because it's so different and people can tell you
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: how it's different, and now it's it's a different feeling.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: You don't know until you play, and that's what the
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: players keep talking about. So I want to be on
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Chad side, and lucky for me the playoffs, I can
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: be very patient. I can pick my spots because the
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: books will take money like this. This is the kind
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: of games they will take money on any of these games.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: It's not like the regular season, where you know, they
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: take positions and they take spots and they don't really
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: take that much money with playoffs. They're happy to take
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: money based on any game. You know. Obviously, if you're
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: someone that's limited better and you're limited on betting online,
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: it's different. I tell you all the time. If you
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: got banned, you got to start getting your ass out
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: of bed, driving to the books, all right, put the
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: mask on, suck it up like the rest of us.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: But bitching online about being banned, everyone gets banned.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: This is just a classic game that which I had
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: to talking about, like, if this gets the plus three,
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to take Houston. So it really is
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: a numbers game here where I want to take flack
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: with the veteran quarterback, with Jim Schwartz, the veteran defensive
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: coordinator against a rookie head coach and a rookie defense
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: and a rookie you know, quarterback. And it's all just
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: so young for Houston. They're a year or two early. Like,
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: it's incredible what they've done. Obviously they had some luck,
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: right that a lot of things break their way. The
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: Jaguars going one to five down the stretch helped. But yeah,
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: the the Joe Flacco story, Chad, like it's it's really
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: lined up for him in this Browns team to make
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: a crazy run, and I just I want to believe
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: in the Browns so bad. That's the hardest part here.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: But Chad's stung with the line movement and it's it's
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: moving towards the Texans, and that's where the value is
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: gonna be. Like, if it gets the plus three, that's
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: that's the value play on Houston. But some Sunday, if
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: this is still in their three, Chad, I'm probably gonna
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: end up taking the Browns. It's just it's just the
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: Joe Flacco off everything about it. I feel I can't
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: believe I'm saying this. I feel confident as Joe Flacco
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: as a road favorite. If it's under three, do you
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: have this.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Rated?
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: No, I got it. I got a value right now
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: for Houston. I got this at two, So I should
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: have took it. I should have taken the one and
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: a half. But at the time, I was just like,
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: it feels too easy. I didn't trust that number at all.
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: And no, it's it's a good number. Like the books
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: are sharp, they know what they're doing. So the professionals
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: they came in, they moved the number two and a
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: half like, that's that's what it should be like if
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: they gets the three. I know pros, other pros are
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: just waiting to slam that number because you got the
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: one and a half and you can get the three. Now.
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: I know it sounds stupid, but that's actually nice. That's
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: a nice middle play. Like it's shocking amount of times
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: it lands on two or three. So that's what's gonna happen.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: If they do move the three. That's a big deal
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: because the books know they're gonna have guys trying to
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: play both sides.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Uh, you mean you want to milman in because that's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: what we call the middling right now? How much do
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: you change your power rankings for the playoffs or how
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: do you adjust them? How do you incorporate playoffs into
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: power rings?
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: A lot goes into it, but it's it's honestly more
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: about going with your gut and what other people are hearing.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: Models don't really mean shit in such a small sample.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Like you think a model can predict that run that
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: Joe Flackle had with the Ravens. Do you think models
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: can predict Nick Foles having that run with the Eagles team?
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: It's like no, it's those things are tough where if
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: the numbers say, like that Eagles team we're just talking about,
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: if the numbers say that has an incredibly good D line,
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: their defense is better than people a giving credit to.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: They actually are pretty good offensively. There's not that big
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: of a difference between Nick Foles and Wentz. Some people
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: can find crazy value that way and going these crazy runs.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: But you know, for someone like me, last year was
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: out now like very last year was weird, right, we
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: talked about last year it was both one seeds made
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: to the super Bowl. I was all in on those
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: two one seeds. I talked about it the whole playoff run.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: Bet them both the whole run. That's not normal. That's
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: usually not like that for me. I don't really like
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: taking that because we see all the time of football
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: it's a one game winner, take all random shit's gonna happen.
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: Teams of match up well, teams get hot. That's what
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: I'm banking on this year. I think we're due for
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: a crazy wild called runner. So like we're goetting, we're
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: gonna go through these games year. Chad's gonna start picking
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: up on how I view a lot of these games.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: I do like a couple of these underdogs this week.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: This is a luck rankings undergame. According to Nick Giffen.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: In the playoffs the past five years, Luck total games
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: twenty nine and eleven against the total, so the total
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: on this has been forty four and a half. It
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: got bet down to forty four. Also, home dogs the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: past twenty years in the playoffs fifteen to twelve and
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: two against the spread, but nine and two against the
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: spread in the wild card round, but home was less
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: than a field goal in any round nine to two
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread since two thousand. So everything
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: you're saying is right to me. I haven't bet that.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: I haven't bet the Texans yet because I wanted to
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: follow up on the conversation because I was trying to rock,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: like why you loved Cleveland? And then yesterday I was
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: doing my research and you know, recited all these the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: litany of stats and was still trying to figure out
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: why does he like Cleveland? And like now I'm just
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: waiting for the number to get to three.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's that to me, feels like a move
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: and then if it does move down, she got Chatt
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: even more confidence. That means a professional finally came in
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: and at this Houston team where I think most pros
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: like me right Awter just waiting. The pros I know
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: came in on the Browns. They moved the number down
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: to one and a half, and they hit it. They
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: moved up and now they're just kind of waiting for
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: that Houston three.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Well, look the money and the tickets are all coming
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: in on Cleveland right now, so I would expect that
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the number is going to get to three. Uh. And
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: these lines have been moving late on game day, probably
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: more than I've.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: Ever seen in a season like that.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Last two hours before the game, we're seeing pretty decent
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: sized movements around key numbers. Miami, Kansas City. Reminder, Kansas
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: City is a three and a half point favorite. Fascinating games.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: I started to develop an opinion in this game yesterday.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Reminder this game is streaming live only on Peacock, the
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: NBC streaming service.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: That sucks.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, lined to open at three. By the way, it's
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the way the world going forward, simon. It just is
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: got a.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Little change though, Like they got really lucky with most
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: most people my generation don't mind most millennials, like apparently
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: forty two percent of millennials are all sports fans, which
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: is the highest demographic for generations. The generation right behind me,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: they're out. They don't like this bs of Like, if
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: I want to watch an NBA game, I need five
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: different streaming services to watch one NBA game. It's red.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: So the NFL is getting to that point now where
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: there's too much stuff. So I think, while ten years
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: of this bullshit and then I'll come back around to
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: back the cable. It's just by the way.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Let me tell you something.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: The generation right behind you, despite the fact of your
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: advancing age, the generation behind you is fifteen years old.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Okay. I know.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: I know because three I live with one of them.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, your kid, you're you work in sports, and you
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: you're a writer. You force sports down their throats. I'm
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: sure your kids are into sports some way, but most
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: normal guys out there that don't give a damn about sports,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: their kids don't care either.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: You know, guy I was about to support you, don't
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: come after me. What I'm saying is, like the generation
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: behind you, they don't know the difference between table and
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: streaming and streaming only because they're not paying for shit.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: They're not paying attention to shit. All they know is
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: they sit down in the couch, they turn in a remote.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: The game they want is right in front of them,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: that's all they know.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: And then they turn their phone on. They don't even
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: watch them.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: And then they turn their phone on and they're on
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: their phone the entire fucking game. It's just astonishing, all right.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: This line opened at three. I'm moving on from my group.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: The old man get off the grass yelling. The line
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: opened at three, moved up to three and a half.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I kind of have an opinion on this game, but
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: before I even give all my stats, I kind of
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: want to hear what you have to say.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, you were supposed to bet the Chiefs when
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: it was three. That was definitely the move. And the
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: weather is the biggest reason. Like, yes, if this was
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: thirty five and Sonny, I would love and most starts playing.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: I would love Miami so much. This Chiefs team like
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: way too much respect being given them with this number.
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: Now it's up to four for the simple reason that
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: the pros are hitting this because it's supposed to be
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: negative one degrees and so like to a Hawaiian who
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: played in the South is now we were played in
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: a game apparently below thirty degrees Miami their long history
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: of this franchise have always struggled. It doesn't matter if
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: it was the seventies or the two thousands, They've always
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: struggled historically going from Miami to some cold place to
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: play outdoors. The numbers are real. The numbers back it up.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: So I'm pissed. I wanted to take Miami like this
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: was such a great spot another dog I loved. I mean,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: plus four. Now it's sickening, Like I want to take
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: that so bad, but I can't do it if it's
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: gonna be zero degrees. It's like, like it's such bad
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: luck for this this Miami team. It's just I would
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: be sick if I was a fan of that team.
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: Like you guys had it. You had your own home playoff,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: you had the two seed, and now you've got to
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: go to Kansas City and zero degree weather against my homes.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: It's just such a bad spot. But yeah, it sucks.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: This number keeps growing. I might eventually have to bet it,
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: but right now, what's my motivation to bet it? There
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: is none. But if you want the Chiefs, Chad just
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: told you it's three and a half right now, bet
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: three six y five? You better go grab it because
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: it's going up to four and I know it's going
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: to keep going. Just every pro I talk tough, they're
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: just like it's two in the cold, like why are
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: you backing them? And I just keep arguing, it's that run,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: the running style of Miami, that's what's been their success
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: this year, right, Like that running style with Moster. If
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: he's gone, I can't back Miami here. I just I'll
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: either sit it out or I'll end up taking the Chiefs. Maybe.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: So a couple other things that are on my mind
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: for this game. One of them you mentioned. Look, this
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: team was a record setting offense throughout the year. At
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one point during the season, let me see if I
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: can find those notes here. At one point during the season,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: they were Buffalo was minus one forty to win the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: AFC East on October tewod Miami was plus one thirty eight.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: On December first, Miami was minus four hundred.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: Buffalo was plus.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Fifteen hundred, and Miami still did not win the AFC East.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: And that was a to.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Me, a gut punch of a loss. Mentally, Now you've
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: got to pick yourself up the mat, up off the mat.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: You got dominated, They dominated that game defensively, like you
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: had Josh Allen have a bad game, and they couldn't
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: do a single thing on offense.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: They couldn't do anything on offense. And now the Dolphins defense,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: they don't have Chubb, they don't have Jalen Phillips, Cameron
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Good another pass rusher lost during the Bills game.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: Howard's banged up.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Howard is banged up. They've got Melvin Ingram off the
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: street in December, shocking, Yes, less than a month with
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the team lining up in coverage on rookie tight ends.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, it's.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Going to be windy, it's going to be negative temperature.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I had to walk my dog in nineteen degrees this morning. Mentally,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I was there. I forgot the poop bags because I
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: had to put on so many fucking clothes I walked outside.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I'm like Jesus Christ, I didn't even put them in
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: my pocket. So like, and I don't have to play
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: football and I'm not from Miami. Like it's going to
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: be a miserable day. And they just lost a brutal
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: game that they should have won.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I just I don't want to do
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: I want to take I want to take Miami here,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: but the play just feels like the Chiefs and the under,
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: like you just laid it all out. These teams have
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: already faced each other. It's just it's bad.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like we still owe with Simon says, we
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: still owe an exec decision exec decision two games above
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: five hundred this season. Then we always the listeners the viewers.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: They need the exact decision because that's their money maker.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to give them one.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: With the juice. With the juice, they just made the money.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: That's right, just barely. But I don't think Kansas City
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: is going to be my EXAC decision.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: Good play the under if you want.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: What's total in this game right now? Forty four? Yeah,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not there on that. I mean, I'm gonna play
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: the under in this game.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: We already all missed the value play. I think it
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: was like forty seven and a half and now it's
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: down to forty four.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So that's kind of why I'm not looking to
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: play this game, because I'm worried about the value of
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: going both ways. Yeah, but let's talk about Pittsburgh and
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Buffalo because this game. You know what I'm going to
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: say right now, EXAC decision. Give me the Buffalo Bills.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: The Bills make me wan.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Throw your hands up and throw your hand back.
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: Come on now, the Bills.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: I'm making it happen now.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: God damn it, like Pittsburgh really, yeah, I'm a sucker though,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: Like you know, I'm a sucker for these big Combers.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: This year number moved three points because TJ. Watts out.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: That's that's wild, that's crazy to think.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know the bets and the money, TJ.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Watts out.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: But look, Pittsburgh one in ten straight up without Watts since.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: He joined the team, I know.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: One in six in the last seven games thirty first
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: in Dvoa without him eighteen to nine straight up and
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: against the spread with TJ. Watt one in six two
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: and four against the spread without him, Steelers seventy forty
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: six straight up sixty two to fifty four against the
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: spread with him since twenty seventeen, one in ten, four
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: six and one, you know, eleven games without him, Like.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: It's just the side.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I can't. I can't get there because
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: the Josh Allen effect. Man, the dude can't stop turning
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: the ball over. Like he just cannot stop turning the
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: ball over. And ten points for a guy that can't
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: be consistent, is you know, scary? Like, that's a lot
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: of points for a dude that keeps these games tight
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: because you can't stop turning the ball over.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: It's betting, is scary? Wise man? A wise man once
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: said that to me. A wise man who's now older
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: once said that to me.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: I'm just shocked you're not scared by all this movement,
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: man's a lot of that's a lot to move it.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: It's moved from seven all way up to ten.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: It has I agree.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: And so here's two more things that I have the
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: benefit of knowing already, which you might not know yet.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Number One, it's the big luck game according to the
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: luck rankings, and the luck rankings are devised against the
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: closing line. So I feel like I'm still getting the
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: number I want at ten. Also from Stuckey, who sent
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: this in, QB is making their first playoff start versus
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: a QB who has playoff experience, and this plays to
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: your Joe Flacco CJ. Stroud seventeen thirty five and one
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: against the spread, seventeen thirty six straight up since two
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: thousand and two, So that applies to CJ. Shroud and
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Flacco two and Mahomes, Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Jordan lo versus Dak Prescott.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, damn that. I mean every time you see the
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: stat it's it is such a killer where you want
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: to take these these young guys, exciting new quarterbacks, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: it's just like you gotta go with grizzly Vet like
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: the guys who've been there. You're right, like I do
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: want to, I do want to Black Buffalo. Just I'm
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: just worried the line moved too much overreaction to the
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Watt news. Why what is obviously incredible, But they have
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: a couple of guys in that D line that get pressure, right.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: I feel like every week there's just multiple guys getting pressure.
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: And that could be because they have two or three
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: guys all catered to TJ. Watt. But you said it,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: we know their record without them again, if you just
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: playing this game, I promise you I would have been
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: over Pittsburgh's money line. No chance, No chance I'll be
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: on Pittsburgh's money line anyway. Like they just they don't
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: win without TJ. He's the X factor. The Bills are
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: due for a blall whin they've been. They've not played well,
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: and it feels like four weeks like every game there
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: they keep teams in it, all these close games just
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: because of the turnovers. Uh. I know he's not having
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: an incredible season. Gabe Davis got a little banged up
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: last week. Diggs has not looked right in about six weeks,
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: ever since the new OC has taken over, which the
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: run game is excelled, but that's what suffered the playoff.
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: Digs has suffered these last couple of weeks. So a
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: lot of questions for me with the bills. Too many
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: questions for me to take it at ten. It's Chad's
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: exact decision, so I'll back my guy. But I am
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: scaring feels now.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: I love it. I freaking love it. All right, Well,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: that's good, that's good.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: We're going with to be over too. People are looking
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: if people want to party, I'm partying on the over.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I just a lot of turnovers, a lot of short fields. Rudolph.
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be turned over just way too low.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: I know they're supposed to be weather. It's Tuesday. Like
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: predicting the weather for Sunday in Buffalo. It's impossible. No
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: one knows what the lake, how the Lake's going to
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: affect the weather by the time Sunday rolls around. So
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: I'll take that number now to the fact that it's
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: thirty six and a half. Thirty seven is such a
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: key number. We see so many games finish twenty seventeen,
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: So I'll take the over right now, thirty six and
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: I like that too, Simon. We've ventured a brand new year.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: But to keep delivering the best cut podcast we can,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I need to ensure you're keeping up on the latest news.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to ask you just one more time
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: if you can name the fastest growing ticketing app in
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the United States.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: Game Time.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's a sponsored game Time. I love game
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number Two,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm actually
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: going to open game Time right now from my house
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: here in Connecticut. Look what I can do. I can
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: get in to go see the New York Knickerbockers at
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: the Mecca Madison Square Garden for less than one hundred
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: dollars against the Portland Trailblazers. No matter where you live,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: download the game time app Get out have some fun
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: your first purchase.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Terms apply again.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: dollars off. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: another one of those games. A veteran quarterback in Dak
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Prescott versus a rookie corps a first time in the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: playoff quarterback in Jordan Love Sunday night. I had to
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: go back and listen to the podcast to make sure
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: I got your comments correct. We talked about this game.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: The line immediately moved from seven to seven and a half.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter's quote, I am shocked it moved this way.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: We didn't want to bet it yet because we wanted
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: to get more intel. And why the line move in
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: this direction since we both thought the Packers were the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: right side. Yeah at seven.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Have you heard anything in the past forty eight hours?
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: I know the pros are split. I know plenty of pros.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: I like Dallas which I can't believe. I'm just I
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: don't buy it. Man, This Dallas team, I know they
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: blew up Brady last year in the playoffs. That was
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: pretty incredible what they did the Bucks team, And I
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: was one of those idiots that was on the Bucks
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: who lost by whatever it was, thirty points to Dak
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: But Man, seven and a half is just a lot
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: of points for dallast and that we've seen time and
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: time again they can the ball can be moved on them.
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: And green Bay last week they didn't play the perfect
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: game right, Like they didn't play that amazing Jordan Love
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: wasn't out of the sport. I think they scored seventeen points.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: But you saw with the floor when things aren't working,
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: he can still scheme up guys open, like he can
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: still get the right guys in the right position to
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: get first downs consistently. So the argument against our green
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: Bay pick is their defense is so bad that Dallas
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: is going to have an absolute field day against them
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: with this offense. But I'm just not buying it. Like
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: the green Bay knows what they have to do right,
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: They're gonna double CD and that's kind of the force
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: there is. You take away the passing game. You want
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: to make them run with poler. I mean, they just
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: they haven't had a really strong running game this season.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: But the issue is Green Bay has one of the
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: worst run defenses in football. So it's like, I don't
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: know what they can do defensively to get stops against Dallas.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: It really would have to be Dak beating himself for
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: them to kind of lose this game. But you know,
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: I said it, I'm going to force some dogs in.
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna end up forcing Green Bay in. It's just
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: seven and a half. I got to be a buyer
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: at that number, and the books might be sucking me
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: in at that number. I remember last year with the
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: exact same scenario of Daniel Jones coming off a big
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: win against the Vikings going to Philadelphia, and I said
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: on the show, if that number had moved to seven,
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: it was gonna be my biggest bet of the playoffs
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: on the Eagles. It was just like the hype was
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: way too high on that Giants team. I don't think
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: we're getting the same cup of hype here with Green Bay.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: I don't. I don't think they end up as a
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: public dog. I do think the public between the teasers,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: the money line parlays, everything will keep coming in on
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: this Dallas team. So I'm not as worried as I
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: would have been if they were such a public dog.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: You don't really back public dogs usually in the playoffs.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: We have one coming up here. But yeah, seven and
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: a half. I like Green Bay at this number of people,
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: It's like, if this number dips below seven, I felt
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: way better about this Green Bay bet. So I am
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: a little scared that the pros have coming so heavy
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: on this Cowboys team and bumped this up and now
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: it's holding like it's been holding at seven and a
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: half now for two days. So the books have clearly
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: taken up position now with this Dallas team.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it hasn't moved.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: We thought like it might move a little bit at
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: some point the last forty eight hours. It hasn't. Dak
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Prescott and Jordan Love top two touchdown passers, both had
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: more than four thousand yards. Both threw for more than
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt. I think if you look at this,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the Packers I think have the better coach, but they
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: have the first year quarterback on the road in his
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: first playoff game. Cowboys do have the better defense. I
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: would also say that Jordan Love under pressure.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Is exquisite.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Like the Minnesota Vikings, they tried to blitz them, it
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: didn't work. The Chicago Bears, they tried to flush them
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: out of the pocket. It didn't work. We talked about
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday. Jordan Love's ability to roll right or
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: roll back and throw off balance and be accurate and
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: find open receivers, it's all ready upper echelon in terms
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: of quarterbacks in the NFL. He's just amazing at it.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: And the fact that the Packers got rid of Aaron
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Rodgers and is now doing a better job of ripping
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: ESPN executives and spreading conspiracy theories and lies than he
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: is at doing anything in the football field because of injuries,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: and Jordan Love in his first year as a starter,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: is the second highest touchdown passer in the NFL. As
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a Bears fan, it makes me sick and I cannot
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: believe the Packers have another quarterback issues solved for thirty
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: straight years.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I said it, and people kept giving the
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: Green Bay shit for drafting. I still think it's one
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: of the best better draft picks we've seen last five
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: or securities because they got two MVPs out of Rodgers
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: able to trade him for a couple of first round
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: picks or whatever it was, and then they got Jordan
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: Love who stepped in now and it's insane that draft
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: class that Herbert Burrow, Tua Hurtz, now Jordan Love draft class.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: We've never seen anything like it in football where it's
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: like multiple guys all Pro Bowlers, you know, anyone any
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: of those guys people basically take for their team, right,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: Like there's consistently maybe twelve to fifteen guys that you
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: feel good about the fact that five of them are
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: from one draft class. We've never seen it. So I
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: had a lot of doubts with Jordan Love. I just
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: remember that Chiefs game. Obviously it's a bad spot, right
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: his first start playing against the Chiefs and Mahomes, and
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: he just could not do a single thing offensively, Like
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: he just looked totally lost. Whatever he did this past offseason,
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: like gotta taste the league. He knew it was gonna
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: be his team. And you know the fact you just
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: said he's top three wherever it is and passing touchdowns
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: in his first year as a starter.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Two he's just behind Dak.
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: Like that is mind so yeah, just don't overreact that
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: someone that almost had a Wentz MVP keep it even
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: killed green Bay. But you gotta be feeling pretty damn
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: good if you're a Green Bay fan.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: A couple more stats, Dak Prescott at home is a
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: favorite of more than a touchdown fourteen to seven and
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: one against the spread.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah good, pretty deep, pretty deep, a lot of that's.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: A lot of Washington and Giants.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Next thing, No, you're you're totally right, by the way.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love first half of the season versit the second
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: half of the season.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: First half weeks.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: One through ten, sixteenth in EPA per play, twenty fifth
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: in success rate, thirty eighth in completion percentage, week eleven
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: on second in EPA per play fourth and success rate
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: sixth and completion percentage. So look, the Packers right now,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: they're the fifth youngest playoff team since the merger and
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: nineteen seventy fifty four years. But Jordan Loves ascend it
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: in the second half of the year. A combination of
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: him getting smarter, Matt Lafleur getting smarter, those receivers getting better.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: That's a team to reckon with.
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, that's incredible. He had that kind of
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: turnaround second half, because most guys does not work that way.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: Usually there's a big drop off. I mean a guy
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: we talked on start of the show, Jalen Carter. He
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: fell off that rookie Cliff. It's just really hard to
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: play for eighteen weeks straight. And the fact that he
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: had that kind of turned around midway through the season,
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: it's just a testament to that coaching staff and Jordan
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Love just an incredible combination.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: La Rams at the Detroit Lions. Great game, great narrative.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: The Lions are three and a half point favorites. It
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: opened at four.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday as it was at four,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: it was moving to three and a half. We all
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: slammed it at three and a half. It's kind of
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: just settled there. A couple of questions, how much does
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Sam Laporta being out matter? How much this Rams offense
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: light up a Lion's defense that is graded fourth worst
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: against pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. Rams have been
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the league and passes
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: completed twenty yards or more downfield. Sean McVay as an
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: underdog twenty one sixteen and two against the spread, and
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: we like the Rams.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: Here Simon says take the Rams, place.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Diamond says La Rams plus three and a half side signs.
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: When Simon says do it, we do it. Told me
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: I do bet differently in the playoffs, and this is
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: a big, big situational how I bet differently where I'm
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: not as terrified to take certain public dogs. And this
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: will be a spot with that where it's just like
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of a lot of pros who
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: do like the lines, I don't really trust their reasoning
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: behind it, where it's like it's just them kind of
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: bad mouthing this Rams team and their defense, where I
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: don't know if I go through it. I feel like
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: the Rams, even though they had no first round picks
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: for freaking ten years and no second round picks, and
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: all these guys they drafted these fourth and fifth rounds
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: have worked out like the They have a couple of
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: guys they've drafted on the defensive line who no one's
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: going to know their names. I don't even know their names,
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: and they've really helped Aaron Donald like they've If you
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: didn't know Aaron Donald had another amazing season, but I
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: know he's not been mentioned just because he didn't have
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: the usual season that he does where it's like, you know,
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: fifty pressures and fifteen sacks, like you know, TJ. Watt,
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Miles Garrett, those guys just have such credible seasons that
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: they kind of left Donald for, you know, out of
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: the conversation of winning the defensive MVP. But he's played
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: incredible this season, Like Chatterrey talked about it, like these
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: these receivers, they have Cooper, cub and Puka and then
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: Williams in the backfield, Like it's all there for this
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: Rams team, and they're one of my favorite dark horses
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: for making a Super Bowl run at this NFC, Like
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: there's no other team. I really feel like that can
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: be the forty nine ers right now in the NFC,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: then this team, the Rams. It's the honest truth, Like,
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: have zero faith in the Egles, have zero faith in Dallas.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: Like all these guys have to go to play against
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: the fren Arras at you know, a stadium that's just rocking.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: It's hard to back all these guys who aren't gonna
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: be these veteran quarterbacks where it's like Stafford has it
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: all checked off. He's he's used to playing against the
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers. He knows their system, all this stuff,
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: but it all starts here and arguably the most emotional
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: game of the entire weekend. Right, Like, he put out
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: a ten minute video just talking about what Detroit means
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: them and how it made him from like a boy
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: from college from Georgia and who the man he is now.
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: And it's like a really heartful message. And how is
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: that not gonna be wearing him? That's definitely gonna be
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: in Stafford's head, But that's that's canceled out by golf,
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: Like where we talked about golf, where it's like that's
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: that's another side where he's gonna have to control his
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: rage and him seeing red because this is the definition
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: of a red of revenge spot right, we talked about it.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: It's like the Rams literally told the man, we're gonna go.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: We're gonna get someone that can actually get us to
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: the promise, and we're gonna go to replace you with Stafford,
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: a guy we believe in that get us there. We
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: don't believe in you, even though you just got us
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: to a super Bowl two years before. We're moving on.
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: He talked about it he'd kind of given up on himself.
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: He had lost faith where it's like he had a
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: ton of self doubt and Campbell and you know, Ben
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: Johnson built it back these last three four years. And
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: both teams won. Like we said all the time, Detroit
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: won the trade, the Rams won the trade. They both
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: It's the rare both teams won, and it's only fitting
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: they're playing in this first round. But I don't get
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: the number. I don't really get what the pros are
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: saying here when they're like this Detroit team is so
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: clearly better. I just don't see it that way. Now
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: you're factoring Laporte is out, that's such a huge deal.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: It is such a big deal. Who the number one
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: tight end in football. It's crazy to say, but he is,
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: by the numbers, the number one tight end of football.
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: So much stuff they designed around him. It's a big deal.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: So me and Chad joked about before coming on here
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: that you know laport is out, we're gonna like them.
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: And then you mix in the fact that Nick Mullens
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: almost put his tea even a spot to win against
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: the same Detroit team last week. They just don't have
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: the guys on defense to get stops. So Stafford back
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: against the wall. I love this spot, like plus three
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: and a half taking this taking the money line. It's
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: the same thing when they had the Super Bowl run.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: People forget the public were actually on the Rams and
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: taking them a plus three and a half against the Bucks,
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: and they won that game out right. I mean most
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: people will remember they bet it. Brady was down, like
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: twenty eight points came all the way back Stafford had
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: with him was in san throws. Ever to Cooper Cup
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: put them in the field to kick a field with
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: a win. It's like they've been this is the spot before.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: So incredible story for Detroit. Just I feel like it's
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: a terrible matchup of them. Like if they would have
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: called the Eagles, that's the dream scenario where it's like
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: they I think they would have beat the Eagles or whoever.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: But the Rams, I just I think they're a better
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: team right now. I'm gonna back this team. So it's
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: it's the more public player of the week for me. But
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: I love the Rams here.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: Sam Reporter, you mentioned tight end he had ten touchdowns
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: in his rookie year. Sam Laporta, Rob Gronkrawski, Mike Ditka,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: eighty two receptions is the most ever for a rookie
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: tight end in NFL history.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: Bad news record set by.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Keith Jackson, former Philadelphia Eagle, not ABC broadcaster, but.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Most important for what you were saying.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: About, how he impacts the Lions offense second and receiving
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: first downs for Detroit this year, second behind only a
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: mon Ross Saint Brown. So there's an immediate safety valve
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: component to this where Jared Goff will not have a
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: guy who has become so important to how he executes
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: the offense. A couple other stats while let's see home
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: teams who missed the playoffs the year prior Lions thirty
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: forty nine against the spread in the playoffs over the
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: past twenty years, when those teams are favorites nineteen and
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: forty thirty two percent.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: So we like both of those trends.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: By the way, the first trend includes Houston, so we
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: don't like it for Houston if we're going to back Houston,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: but we like it for the Rams. Last game on
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: the board, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, Tampa based two and
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: a half. This has moved in the direction of the Bucks.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Baker's banged up Jalen Hurts is banged up. The Eagles
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: are in a free fall. The Bucks actually did what
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: good teams do. They beat bad teams in trap games
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: on the road when it matters most. The Jacks couldn't
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: do it. The Eagles kind of couldn't do it. I
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: don't really want to bet this game, I'll be honest,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: but I feel like we kind of have to bet
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: the Bucks. Reminder home dogs of less than a field
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: goal in the playoffs since two thousand and nine to
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: two and one in the Wildcar round. Betting the dog
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. It's nine to nine and two. But
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: this Eagles team, they could win the game. But I
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: feel like Baker's Scott Moxie.
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: He does. But like the guy I talked to who's
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: got he's got the good news and the bad news
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: with this Bucks. He always knows what's going on with them.
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: He says, it's all bad right now for Baker. Baker's
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: apparently he's got a bad ankle, He's got a bad shoulders.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: That's that's that's important. Hurts didn't break his finger. Apparently
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: he just dislocated or sprained it. I don't know if
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: you've heard anything. I just from what I hear he hasn't.
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: He did not break it. But Chad's right, Like everything
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: about this makes me want to take Tampa. But every
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: pro I talked to has just been slamming this Eagles team.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: This this number opening one and a half. Now it's
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: up to three. I'm gonna grab the three with the Eagles.
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: It's just if Baker's benned up, Eagles are in a
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: spot to get right against his Bucks team. It feels
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: the same scenario last year with Dallas against this Bucks team.
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: It's like, we know that the Bucks aren't that good, right,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: Like they had a lot of a lot of lucky wins,
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: a lot of crazy stuff happened where it really was
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: the Baker effect, Like Baker had these incredible last minute
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: drives him and Mike Evans, you know, shout out to
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: our guy, Brandon Anderson gave out Mike Evans, the lead
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: the league in touchdowns. Uh, just him and him and
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: this incredible connection this season that's been crazy. So it's
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: hard to go against that. Where the Eagles have one
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen in my
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: life watching football. Like, I mean, Taylor last week could
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: do whatever he wanted passing against this defense. So if
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: I get news that Baker has gotten better, his shoulder
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: is healed by by the time this game rolls around
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: on Monday, don't be shocking in the app if you
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: do see me take the Bucks because we sit here
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: right now. If I know he's banged up, I know
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: how much better this Eagles team that offensively, they should
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: be able to run the ball at will against this
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: Bucks team and basically do whatever they want against this
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: Bucks team. I got it back this Eagles, so I'm
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: not gonna I'm gonna grab it now just in case
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: it does keep going up. I'll grab the three in
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: case news comes out that Baker's really banged up. This
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: number could easily jump up to four if he's out.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: What do you see this number get through six, six
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: and a half if it's trash yeah, uh So, just
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: to be safe, I'm gonna take the Eagles now with
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: this number because it has been running up and I
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: can every produ I've talked to you so far they
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: do like this spot all right.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, Simon, you can catch every episode of
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 51:11
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• 51:12
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• 51:16
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• 51:17
  Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power out the as one
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.
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  Speaker 1: Bet three six five boost specific markets, your winnings and
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  Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty
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  Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. Before we go again, we do want
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: to congratulate our first place winner, Jesse Goldberg one more time,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: as well as our second and third place finishers Sam
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: and Nolan. To finish first, Jesse endured quite a week eighteen.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell producer Matt Mitchell is going to come on
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: and explain how things went down and how it all
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: comes back to one team that is Cris.
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: Des al Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: The gambling world this season revolves around the beloved Carolina Panthers. So,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: like you mentioned, there's three entries that were battling for
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: first place and the forty thousand dollars grand prize, Jesse,
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: Nolan and Sam. Jesse was in the lead, but if
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: either no One or Sam gained one game, they would win.
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: Sam would win by having more wins, and no one
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: would win on tibreaker differential. So first up, let's see
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: if no one can gain a game. Jesse the leader.
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: Hecks Las Vegas, Tennessee, Chicago, and Atlanta. Those are four
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: of the games, and no one picks. Let's see Las Vegas, Tennessee, Chicago, Atlanta.
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: Oh shit, you're gonna need to win and he's gonna
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: need to lose. Jesse selected Buffalo. That's a winner. No
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: one selected the Rams. That's a winner. They both go
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: three and two.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: That sucks.
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: No one would finish third, pick up five. G's not
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: a bad day at the office, Sam, who will be
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: joining us live in person, for our Sunday live show
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: at the Shepherd on the Knucklehead and beautiful New Jersey
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: and who seems like a swell guy. That guy needs
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: to go four and one to get the forty thousand
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: dollars grand prize. He starts off with three winners. He
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: starts off three and oh. It all comes down to
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: his last two games. His first his versed in Seattle
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: minus two and a half, and Seattle won the game
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: by exactly one because they tied the game at the
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: end and went for two, which totally fucked over Sam.
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: But no problem, he's got one more shot.
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: Who did he take?
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: That's right, the Carolina Panthers plus four and a half.
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: They lost nine to nothing. All they had to do
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: was score one touchdown. They had one touchdown bumbled over
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: the pylon after a nine hundred hour review, and they
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: had another beautiful touchdown called back on the dumbest procedural.
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: This guy didn't line up next to this guy. Kind
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: of inane penalty. Just an absolute torture chamber for this
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: poor bastard.
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: This sucks and his horseshit. But I'm too polite to
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: say anything because I'm a class act.
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: And that is how Jesse claimed victory. I believe he
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: finished almost seventy two percent against the spread for the season.
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: Congratulations to him. He will be joining us as a
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: segment in our next episode.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: Oh my god.
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: Sorry, the best quote from Jesse when I said, do
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: you want to come on? What were you thinking? You know,
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: when that day was unfolding. So when I made my pecks,
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: I said, if I lose forty thousand dollars because of
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: the fucking Panthers, I'll never be able to live with myself.
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: And I said, now you have to come on the
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: show because you speak for literally every single one.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Up our listeners.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: We went two and six picking the Panthers this year,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: and they're primarily responsible for our big Balls bet of
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the Week terrible streak in the middle of the year.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I am so sorry for Sam. I hope we did
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: not influence your decision to pick the Panthers in any
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: possible way, but we look forward to seeing you on
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Sunday at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead.
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: Doors open at four pm, live show at seven thirty.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Sam will be there to take the blame off of
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: us and put it all on his shoulders. RSVP in
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: the link in the description page, free entry, freeks. Even
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: though it's free drinks, will still be buying sam plenty.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Of drinks at the show.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of The Favorites
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: live on the Action Network You two page this Thursday,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern. Downloadus from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: get your pods, Rate review, subscribe us five stars, say
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: whatever you want.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift until Thursday, eleven am Eastern.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Love You.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help us
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler