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Why US & Iran are headed toward forever war Irans rising executions · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: You've written an op ed in the New York Times,
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  Speaker 1: and you're arguing that this war between the US and
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  Speaker 1: you run risks becoming a forever war. And you say
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  Speaker 1: that is the logic of a forever war. Each side
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  Speaker 1: uses violence to test the other's endurance. War becomes negotiation
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  Speaker 1: by other means. And we know that both sides, Frankie
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  Speaker 1: Ali have been doubling down and it is about who
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  Speaker 1: is willing to endure the most pain. So help us
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  Speaker 1: understand why you think we're on the path to a
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  Speaker 1: forever war.
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  Speaker 2: It's great to be with you. Look, the logic is
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  Speaker 2: very simple.
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  Speaker 3: It took about two months to negotiate a page and
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  Speaker 3: a half of the memorandum of understanding between April eighth,
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  Speaker 3: which was the ceasefire three around in the US, to
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  Speaker 3: June eighteenth, when the memorandum was finalized.
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  Speaker 2: It took only three weeks for it to unravel. And
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  Speaker 2: the point I'm.
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  Speaker 3: Making is if such a minimal understanding cannot hold between
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  Speaker 3: the two sides, basically, there's no way you can put
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  Speaker 3: a floor under these tensions between one and the United States,
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  Speaker 3: which means that we are going to go from one
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  Speaker 3: cycle of violence into the next.
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  Speaker 2: And this is exactly the concept of a four of
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  Speaker 2: a war.
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  Speaker 3: If you can't resolve issues, if you can't even scratch
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  Speaker 3: the surface. And the war on which both sides agreed
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  Speaker 3: reopened the strait again, on which the general concept of
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  Speaker 3: both sides agree, and you don't have deconfliction mechanisms that
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  Speaker 3: if you have disagreements over interpretation of an understanding, then
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  Speaker 3: you are basically locked in an escalatory.
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  Speaker 2: Cycle of violence.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the escalation trap. And that's sort of the
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  Speaker 1: danger a promise of just lasting a few weeks. We're
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  Speaker 1: months in now, but you have talked about a potential
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  Speaker 1: off ramp when it comes to the issue of managing traffic.
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  Speaker 1: Illustrait of homos that is Run's main point of leverage.
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  Speaker 1: I want you to take me through what that might
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  Speaker 1: actually look like.
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  Speaker 3: So the dispute right now is that the text of
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  Speaker 3: the MoU in a very inprecise way, talked about the
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  Speaker 3: fact that over the thirty days of implementation of the agreement,
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  Speaker 3: Iran would be responsible to making its best efforts to
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  Speaker 3: reopen the strait and return traffic to where it was.
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  Speaker 2: Before the war.
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  Speaker 3: In the first week of the implementation of the Mure
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  Speaker 3: almost fifty percent of the traffic was restored, but then
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  Speaker 3: the US opened the Southern Corridor much closer to amongst
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  Speaker 3: eritorial waters to Iran saw this as US effort to
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  Speaker 3: erode its leverage and sort of shooting at vessels.
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  Speaker 2: That we are in another round of conflict now.
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  Speaker 3: So basically the solution would be that there would be
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  Speaker 3: a joint coordination center in which Iran and the Golf
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  Speaker 3: cooperation countries could have a monetary mechanism of what traffic
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  Speaker 3: is coming in and going out of the strait, so
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  Speaker 3: that both sides of the.
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  Speaker 2: Golf are involved, and that we return to the MLU.
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  Speaker 3: That's the only solution because again, if the floor collapses,
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  Speaker 3: then there's no foundation on which you can build anything.
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  Speaker 3: And by the way, let me add that this is
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  Speaker 3: cognizant of the fact that there's also no military solution
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  Speaker 3: to reopening the straits. The US can bomb Iran for
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  Speaker 3: another six weeks and Iran can still be able to
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  Speaker 3: fly drones and missiles into the strait.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really interesting prospect. I mean, we've heard
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  Speaker 1: about a joint coordination sort of mechanism between Iran and Oman.
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  Speaker 1: There was apparently a hotline that was going to be
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  Speaker 1: created with the United States. But it seems Iran is
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  Speaker 1: just saying, you know, you've got to use the Northern
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  Speaker 1: corridor and showing that it can inflict pain towards the
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  Speaker 1: Southern corridor, and it just talks about who's really got
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  Speaker 1: superiority here. That's about bringing you run to the table,
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  Speaker 1: isn't it.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it is about control. You're absolutely right. But this
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  Speaker 2: is why a joint coordination.
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  Speaker 3: Center doesn't necessarily deprive Irana.
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  Speaker 2: Knowing what's coming in and what's going out.
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  Speaker 3: The problem Iranians had was that they had no visibility
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  Speaker 3: in the Southern Corridor, and therefore they saw it as means.
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  Speaker 2: Of eroding their leverage.
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  Speaker 3: If they believe that they still have the leverage, and
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  Speaker 3: by the way, if the US delivers on the positive
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  Speaker 3: incentives that were promised in the deal, and on that
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  Speaker 3: front there were serious forthcomings, whether it was releasertain Iran's
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  Speaker 3: frozen assets or basically allowing Iran to sell oil and
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  Speaker 3: tech chemical products and repatriot the revenue.
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  Speaker 2: If these things.
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  Speaker 3: Are on the table and concretely delivered, then I think
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  Speaker 3: Iran would have less of an incentive to try to
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  Speaker 3: use the Strait as a revenue generation mechant.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, while we're talking, the maritime industry is
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  Speaker 1: infuriated with what's going on. They want to get Basels out.
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  Speaker 1: The risks are obviously very serious. And now you've got through,
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  Speaker 1: it's around closing Babbel Mendeed straight as well. Give me
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  Speaker 1: a sense of how President Trump keeps golf allies on
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  Speaker 1: side even as he continues to fight this war of
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  Speaker 1: his own choosing and in their backyard.
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  Speaker 3: Look, the Golf states didn't want this war to start
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  Speaker 3: and don't want Iran to be in control.
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  Speaker 2: Of the Straits.
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  Speaker 3: So if you don't want a military solution and you
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  Speaker 3: don't want Iran's dominance, there is only one solution, which
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  Speaker 3: is a win win diplomatic solution.
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  Speaker 2: And some of the golf countries, including.
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  Speaker 3: Saudi Radio that was part of this mediating group and Katar,
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  Speaker 3: which did a lot of heavy lifting to make them
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  Speaker 3: memorandum of understanding happen, are exactly on board with that
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  Speaker 3: kind of vision. The problem again is that instead of
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  Speaker 3: returning to the negotiating table to resolve differences over the
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  Speaker 3: interpretation of the text, the two side decider.
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  Speaker 2: To use force to enforce certain interpretation.
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  Speaker 3: And that's why again I think these mediating countries, the
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  Speaker 3: golf countries, can come back in and offered new ideas
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  Speaker 3: and new solutions to prevent a bad situation from getting worse.
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  Speaker 3: Because you're absolutely right, all of these tensions that we've
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  Speaker 3: had or have been primarily.
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  Speaker 2: About the quoture of the straight or foremost.
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  Speaker 3: If you have a second critical truth point, Bobleman, that
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  Speaker 3: haded to that, I think we would have a major
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  Speaker 3: energy shot and put potentially the global recession.
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  Speaker 2: As a result.
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  Speaker 4: Nicki Nickbak recently learned that her two brothers, Haddi and Fazlula,
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  Speaker 4: have been given the death sentence by the Islamic Republic
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  Speaker 4: of Iran. Every day from her home in Germany, she
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  Speaker 4: checks in with her family back home. Nicki's brothers are
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  Speaker 4: just to of dozens of political prisoners facing execution in
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  Speaker 4: Iran right now. They stand accused of encouraging dissent against
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  Speaker 4: the regime and we're convicted of broad charges of corruption.
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  Speaker 4: Republic in the past has said that they only issued
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  Speaker 4: the death penalty after due process and that it's only
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  Speaker 4: given for very serious crimes, with people who have committed
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  Speaker 4: horrendous things. Is that not what your brothers have done.
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  Speaker 1: I'm shi haim gone an athletic.
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  Speaker 4: Earlier this year, after widespread protests where the authorities cracked
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  Speaker 4: down with lethal force, President Trump claimed he'd stepped in
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  Speaker 4: to stop Iran from executing hundreds of people. But since
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  Speaker 4: the US led war, Iran has intensified repression and sped
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  Speaker 4: up the pace of executions. At least forty four political prisoners,
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  Speaker 4: including protesters, have been killed since the conflict broke out,
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  Speaker 4: according to the Norway based Iran Human Rights and GEO.
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  Speaker 4: So this is Hadi and his wife and his two sons,
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  Speaker 4: and how are they handling it?
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  Speaker 1: Animal?
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  Speaker 4: With each execution, the regime sends a chilling message We're
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  Speaker 4: still in charge and dissent will not be tolerated. It
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  Speaker 4: must be impossible to put out of your mind. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: how are you feeling on a daily basis about what
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  Speaker 4: could be to come? Human rights groups decry what they
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  Speaker 4: say are forced confessions used to justify these executions. Earlier
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  Speaker 4: this year, twenty six year old Nasa Baccadz and twenty
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  Speaker 4: eight year old mehrab Abdulaza confessed to serious crimes. NASA's
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  Speaker 4: filmed confession about espionage was used as propaganda and publicized
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  Speaker 4: on Iranian state media.
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  Speaker 2: Access A three years support.
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  Speaker 4: But in recorded calls from prison during their fire in
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  Speaker 4: a days, both Nasa and Mehrab said they've been tortured
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  Speaker 4: into making these confessions.
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  Speaker 2: How much.
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  Speaker 4: Both Nasa and Mehrab were hanged on the second of May.
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  Speaker 4: How much Pati you shared a cell with both men
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  Speaker 4: in Central Prison. Chapatti is a Kurdish Ranian activist who
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  Speaker 4: was imprisoned there for three months. Do you remember the
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  Speaker 4: day when you found out that Nasa was executed?
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  Speaker 2: Shot stud the monash half of zmn value for the.
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  Speaker 3: Wacha Madame.
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  Speaker 4: As the war in Iran heats up again, human rights
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  Speaker 4: feel far from the priority and the regime is once
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  Speaker 4: again ruling through fear. Isabelle Young, CNN London,