Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / The $2 Trillion Warning + Stock Market News 22 February 2024

Transcript

The $2 Trillion Warning + Stock Market News 22 February 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix, I wanted to be live for you today, but the Wi-Fi wasn't playing a game, so this is it.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Instead, I want to walk you through the number one thing that matters today and you can tell I'm on holiday and that's, of course, nvidia earnings.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: And what should we expect?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Which way is it going to go?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: What are the lessons from today?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: The number one thing is everybody's expecting a beat.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: That means expectations will be exceeded.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: The question is, by how much?
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now, on the last two earnings, nvidia beat by sort of 20 to 30% of already pretty lofty expectations, and both times the stock price fell.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: What does that mean for today?
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: It means the same thing is likely to happen.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: And really what the market's looking for today and I've been reading Goldman Sachs's note on this and that is are we topping out with the AI rally or is this a new breakout?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Because things are about to get seriously, seriously exciting.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: There is an argument.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: First of all, most people, most of the market, expects that we're topping out, but if you look at the data from TSMC, for example, to a further upstream in the chip industry, that looks like the demand for cloud computing is going to substantially grow.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You look at chat GPT's latest video AI venture, which is insanely cool.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: The computing power required to run video generation is going to be massively larger than running just a normal natural language model, because this is a natural language model with video on top, and it isn't just chat, gpt, but it's also Google, who are actually probably much, much closer to catching up than most people think.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So there is a good chance today that there will be, and the market will absolutely go bananas and that will be lovely.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So how does it affect you and me?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Well, it's going to affect every tech stock out there.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: It's going to affect the whole market sentiment.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: There is nothing more important at the moment than Nvidia, and we're looking every other week for another data point to show that things can only get much, much better, and that's really what's going to drive things today.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So what am I going to do?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm going to take some risk off.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by that?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm going to close some trades, I'm going to be more cautious, I'm going to be more careful, because risk is something that we can manage.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: We can't manage the actual outcome of today's earnings because, well, unless you got some insider knowledge, let me know.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: No, just kidding, I'd rather be a free man, walking and be on holiday.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So what's the big lesson here?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the big lesson is fundamentally don't get caught up in the latest thing.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Fomo is a big thing that drives us, and I teach thousands of traders.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: The number one thing we have to deal with ultimately is mindset, and if you think, if I don't do this today, I will miss out, you will potentially, with about a 50-50 chance, shred that money that you worked so hard for.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Is that the smart thing to do?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So I would say to you don't fricking trade Nvidia today.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Wait for the results and then let the dust settle for another day and then you've got a fairly good idea of what the market's actually up to.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm going to do.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you're going to do down below and think about with every single decision you make around your trading and investing.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Don't think about oh my God, I need to catch up with so and so and they're making money with this, and if I don't do it, then I'm missing out.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Ultimately, why are you doing this?
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Why are you watching this video?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Why are you investing?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Why are you trading?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: That's the question you need to ask yourself, and if for you, that is the same as for me, which is freedom freedom to be on holiday for the second or third time this year I think it's the second time this year Once a month is the plan for 2024, then you need to make cautious moves rather than the let's just run to the moon moves, because that has a very high probability of destroying your capital, and the number one job we have as investors in Australia is to still have money tomorrow so we can make money with it.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So you forget about the short term noise for a moment here.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Step back, look at where we are, look at the charts and don't buy stuff at the top of the peak or near the top of the peak because you feel like, well, but what if it goes up another 30%?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Or what if it goes up 50% more?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Does it really matter?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: That's what you have to ask yourself.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: What's your strategy to get where you want to get to?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: That's, I think, really the answer here.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: And I can throw in one thing here, and that is I actually wrote about a 24 page document on how to read stock charts, because that is the most insightful thing to give you an idea of where it's going right now and it's free.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: It's in our Facebook group, so check it out.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Go to academyorg slash Facebook group.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I put the link down below and you can just find it in the group of you can't find that?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Just DM me on Facebook and study.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Take time out on a crazy day like this and use it to actually learn and become better.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: If you do that, you're going to make some serious progress.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Now what am I going to do?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm at a spa, beautiful nature, glorious place, and I've been coming here for probably 10 years and it's one of the nicest places in the world.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I'll show you tomorrow what it looks like in daylight, which is obviously a little bit more exciting than at night, but it's an old plantation and it's just absolutely fabulous.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: And you know what actually, one of the nicest things is about me coming here?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: When we book this, they don't ask for a credit card, they just make a reservation and they pick you up and they should show up, and they don't ask for a thing because they actually trust you.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: And that's, in many ways, the ultimate luxury, I think going to places where you know the people and you like the people and people are kind to you and give you great service and everything else Just about make me out in the light, can't you?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: There we go and really, really enjoy life and freedom and peacocks running around here and wild geese and I've seen a few cats and it's just glorious in the tropics.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So, look, chill out.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Today I will figure out the Wi-Fi.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: We've got some device coming to the room and I'll be live again, hopefully tomorrow, and I thank you for watching.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in and take that time out for yourself seriously, and if you disagree with me, put it also down below in the comments.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I'd love to hear what you're thinking of today.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Take care.