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NFL Week 14 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear to the left.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: Up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What's up everyone? Tyler Tambaline here aka Totag and Tambo
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  Speaker 1: Back for another edition of Leverage Lane here on the
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: ship Nation YouTube station. Make sure to tap that thumbs
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: up on the way in and subscribe to the channel
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  Speaker 1: for all of our free shows. Got my man Alex
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  Speaker 1: Blickle here with me as always going to be breaking
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  Speaker 1: down all things Week fourteen NFL DFS DraftKings from a
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  Speaker 1: single entry GPP perspective. It's not narrative street lanes the
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  Speaker 1: name for a reason. Three segments, we're gonna go through
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  Speaker 1: the ownership, what we're seeing across the industry, where we
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  Speaker 1: see maybe some discrepancies and whatnot. Then we'll get to
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  Speaker 1: the sort of what the common build looks like. From there.
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  Speaker 1: Second segment we'll dive in to see how to leverage
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  Speaker 1: the common build and what we can do in some
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  Speaker 1: game stacks, some partnerships or pairings within the tournaments and whatnot.
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  Speaker 1: And then of course at the end we will give
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  Speaker 1: our light. At the end of the lane, we got
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  Speaker 1: our leverage Lane for the week. Alex my man back
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  Speaker 1: from a holiday week. How's your week going so far?
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  Speaker 1: My friend excited for this week fourteen ahead it's good.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked a little bit about this slate or
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  Speaker 2: any kind of ahead of the show, but this is
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  Speaker 2: as like unclear as I've been about what I'm gonna play,
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  Speaker 2: what games are going to attack, because I've been kind
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  Speaker 2: of all season first light. This is a really difficult slate,
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  Speaker 2: but I think that kind of works in our favor,
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  Speaker 2: and these are the kinds of slates that I think
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  Speaker 2: are the most fun to just kind of quote unquote solve.
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  Speaker 2: Like we did a Mastermind show together and we talked
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  Speaker 2: about how you and I both kind of see dfs similarly,
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  Speaker 2: where every week every slate is its own puzzle that
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  Speaker 2: we're trying to solve, its own real that we're trying
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  Speaker 2: to work through and figure out the best solution too.
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  Speaker 2: And this is kind of the epitome of that, this slate.
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  Speaker 2: So very much looking forward to talking through this. I
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  Speaker 2: was talking with the guys in my discord already, where
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  Speaker 2: you know, I kind of love the fact that we
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  Speaker 2: do leverage Lane now because I think this show, this
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  Speaker 2: next hour could actually really help me to kind of
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  Speaker 2: clarify and organize my thoughts about this late and maybe
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  Speaker 2: an hour from now I'll feel a lot more convicted
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  Speaker 2: about what I'm going to play this week than I
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  Speaker 2: do right now.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of similarities when it comes to that stuff.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that's the interesting part about it, is
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  Speaker 1: you we want to shape our own dots for the week.
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  Speaker 1: It helps with that. It hopefully helps you guys out there,
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  Speaker 1: shape the way you think about the week. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: we had a few good comments on the Wan shot
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  Speaker 1: to my man Rick, he says, best show in the industry,
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  Speaker 1: and I made it live. Let's have a week Nation.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: New Ones is always in here early, as is Philly
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Phantom Joanne. I like this comment though, it says this
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  Speaker 1: show has turned into my favorite NFL show of the week,
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  Speaker 1: and I watch hours and hours of this stuff every day.
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  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people do take in a
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  Speaker 1: lot of the content across the industry, so certainly appreciate that.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna, you know, tambo Claus kind of mood,
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  Speaker 1: and it is, you know, for everybody celebrates different holidays,
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  Speaker 1: but for us, Mary Ship miss out there to everybody
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  Speaker 1: as the holiday season and I'm in a giving mood,
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  Speaker 1: So let us know in the chat or if you
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: watch this on replay, or playback. Let us know what
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: your favorite part about this show is. I know everyone
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  Speaker 1: says we love the content, we love the show, we
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  Speaker 1: love whatever. What is your favorite part of Leverage Lane.
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  Speaker 1: Let us know, And I'm gonna give away a month
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: of all access with Sabersim to ship a nation to
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  Speaker 1: somebody before next week. But just I want to see
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: in the comments too, so we'll check back. We always
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: read the comments in case you can't catch it live.
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  Speaker 1: But I thought this same person said what you just
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  Speaker 1: said in a different way. There is a lot of
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  Speaker 1: good plays around the same price points, and when we
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  Speaker 1: get to it in a second, Alex, you'll see that
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  Speaker 1: there's like a you know, there's lots of running backs,
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  Speaker 1: but it kind of boils down to five, I feel like,
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  Speaker 1: give or take, and then two or three of them,
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  Speaker 1: whether you play at a three running back lineup or not.
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  Speaker 1: And then after that you can fit like any stack
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  Speaker 1: around it. And whether you want to go with the
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  Speaker 1: Lamar stack, burrowstack, Tyler shock stack, whatever you're going with,
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  Speaker 1: there's kind of a way to make that fit around
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  Speaker 1: the other stuff. But another key point on this slate
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  Speaker 1: I'll let you take it from here, is you know,
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  Speaker 1: who are some of these chalkier options. A lot of
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  Speaker 1: them are in the afternoon. Well, there's only three afternoon
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  Speaker 1: games though, so give us your thoughts on that. Let's
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  Speaker 1: start it off from there.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a really unique slate in that regard because
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  Speaker 2: typically when you only have three late games, there aren't
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  Speaker 2: that many guys in those three games that a lot
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  Speaker 2: of people are going to play, and so it typically
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  Speaker 2: presents like a really nice kind of late swap opportunity
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  Speaker 2: where Okay, you've got a few chalk options and then
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  Speaker 2: you have a bunch of contrarian options, and so you
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  Speaker 2: can start with contrarian and then pivots to the chalk.
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  Speaker 2: If you're in a really good spot, you can start
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  Speaker 2: with the chalk and pivots of contraering guys if you're
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  Speaker 2: behind the april. But when you look at this slate
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  Speaker 2: of games, the three late games are Denver, Las Vegas,
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  Speaker 2: Los Angeles, Arizona, and Chicago Green Bay. From just those
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  Speaker 2: three games, we have a very chalky RJ. Hart, we
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  Speaker 2: have a very chalky Poka Nakua, and Michael Wilson's probably
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  Speaker 2: going to explode again in ownership. I think Jacoby Brissette
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  Speaker 2: will be brought along with him. We might see Trey
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  Speaker 2: McBride get to you know, fifteen twenty. He came in
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  Speaker 2: higher than the industry expectations last week. I think we'll
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  Speaker 2: do the same this week. And then we have a
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  Speaker 2: lot of chalk in the Chicago game as well. We've
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  Speaker 2: got Josh Jacobs, We've got Luther Burden, We've got Colson Lovelin.
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  Speaker 2: Could end up chalky. I don't think he will, but
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  Speaker 2: that might be one where like a lot of people think, oh,
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  Speaker 2: this is a really nice, sneaky way to attack this game,
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  Speaker 2: and then oops, he's fifteen to twenty percent. Obviously, we
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  Speaker 2: also have Christian Watson on the green base that we
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  Speaker 2: might have don Tavid Wicks Chuck if Matthew Golden gets
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  Speaker 2: ruled out. And the problem here is we talked about
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  Speaker 2: this before the show starts, Like let's say you're on
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  Speaker 2: this chalk. Let's say you've got Michael Wilson and Christian
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  Speaker 2: Watson and R. J. Harvey and you say, okay, I
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  Speaker 2: need to get different. Where are you going? Like, there's
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  Speaker 2: there aren't that many contrarian options that you can go
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  Speaker 2: to because there's literally chalk on every single team and
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  Speaker 2: Beyond that, there's also a weird price thing where like
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  Speaker 2: most of this chalk is cheap chalk. You've got Puka,
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  Speaker 2: you've got Adams, you've got Trey McBride. So like there
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  Speaker 2: are some spend up options. But like, let's let's say
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  Speaker 2: your thought is, Okay, I want to get I need
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  Speaker 2: to get contrariy with my stack. So instead of going
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  Speaker 2: with Jordan Love and Christian Watson or Caleb Williams and
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  Speaker 2: you know, Burden and Loveland, I'm gonna go to Gino Smith. Okay, Well,
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  Speaker 2: if you're going into Geno Smith stack, it means you're
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  Speaker 2: leaving some extra money on the table now, and who
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  Speaker 2: are you using that on from these last three games.
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  Speaker 2: So it's just a really kind of unique setup where
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  Speaker 2: late swamp is going to be hard to take advantage of,
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  Speaker 2: even though structurally, like you'd think you've got three late
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  Speaker 2: games with a lot of chalk, there must be some
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  Speaker 2: really good late swamp opportunities. I think it's one of
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  Speaker 2: one of the trickier kind of parts of this light
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  Speaker 2: to figure out is I love the idea always of
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  Speaker 2: having these like late swamp pairings figured out, where you
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  Speaker 2: know ahead of time if this happens. I'm going here.
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  Speaker 2: This happens, I'm going here. But finding those ahead of
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  Speaker 2: time is going to be really, really tough this week.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, very interesting from that standpoint because the expense and
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  Speaker 1: of what it can cost in some of these spots,
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  Speaker 1: and even in the opposite side of it is like
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  Speaker 1: what if you start expensive, like, oh, I've got this really,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, if you if you already have the Stafford
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  Speaker 1: Nikua Adams stack, let's just use something extremely random that's
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  Speaker 1: very expensive. I really don't know if you're behind, if
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  Speaker 1: it's even at the end of the day, it's like
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  Speaker 1: you just got to eat the fact that maybe you
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  Speaker 1: get them in cash because you have those guys. If
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  Speaker 1: everything failed in the morning, there's not really a purpose
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  Speaker 1: or a point at that side of it, because it's like, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I mean there's something to be said if you could
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  Speaker 1: find a version of it that's slightly different or whatever. Maybe,
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  Speaker 1: but to the end game, to your point, it's like
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  Speaker 1: you can't just move over to Jacob's and Luther Burton
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  Speaker 1: secondary stacks, where it's like you land on the same
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  Speaker 1: thing as everybody else. So I think that's kind of
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  Speaker 1: interesting from that perspective, you know, brock Bowers maybe stays
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  Speaker 1: in check a little bit. Courtland Sutton guys like that.
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  Speaker 1: If you could find like a secondary pairing to squeeze in,
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  Speaker 1: maybe that could do it. But if you're already online
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  Speaker 1: that rams cardinal spot, it probably contains something of the
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  Speaker 1: line of Nikoua and Wilson, and then whatever else you
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  Speaker 1: put in and around it, and that doesn't always alleviate you.
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  Speaker 1: If you don't have McBride because he was a k well,
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  Speaker 1: then there's no going to brock Bowers if your tight
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  Speaker 1: ands always be already been used up, unless you want
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  Speaker 1: to see what you got in the flex there. So
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of ways to think about it. Interestingly enough,
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  Speaker 1: Jacob's chalk just looks like it's gonna stand regardless. And
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  Speaker 1: then there is still some like late love action that
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  Speaker 1: I'm hearing right now, but it seems like more like
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  Speaker 1: people will late swap to that versus right now. It's
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: kind of like Jacobs Watson and Luther Burden once more
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: news comes out, Once late swaps happen, we could see
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  Speaker 1: all those numbers go up even further. I think it's
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  Speaker 1: kind of the case. So where do you want to
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: start here? I guess my take is I kind of
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: want to start at the different than usual. Like I
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  Speaker 1: know we always go through like quarterback, this, that, and
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  Speaker 1: the other, but I really think the running backs are
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  Speaker 1: kind of shaping the slate. I know you talked about
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  Speaker 1: the Jacobs factor, but there is James Cook, there is
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  Speaker 1: a chan there is you know, the Breeze Hall, the
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: exterior guys, like the breeze Halls, the BUCkies, the Harvey
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  Speaker 1: all of that. What sort of are you seeing besides that,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: and how are you viewing that position? Let's start at
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  Speaker 1: running back here.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like starting here. I think number one where
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  Speaker 2: I'll actually start is just generally speaking, there's less kind
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  Speaker 2: of crazy chalk than usual on this slate. So we're
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  Speaker 2: gonna have Michael Wilson as mega chalk. We've got him
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  Speaker 2: projected just under forty percent in single entries, could very
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  Speaker 2: easily clear that. But then there's a big drop off
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  Speaker 2: so where it's not like one of those slates where
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  Speaker 2: we're kind of thinking about how to play the three
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  Speaker 2: mega chalk guys. There's only one on this slate. And
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: then part of the reason why we don't have mega
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  Speaker 2: chalk at the running back position is because there are
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  Speaker 2: a bunch of really good options, and so I do
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  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be pretty spread out. James Cook, Devon
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  Speaker 2: h Han Brisol, Josh Jacobs, R. J. Harvey, and Kenneth
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  Speaker 2: Walker to me, are kind of like their own tier.
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  Speaker 2: All will all should be pretty comfortably over fifteen percent.
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  Speaker 2: We have Kenneth Walker as the lowest in that group
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  Speaker 2: at eighteen point three percent, James Cook the highest at
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  Speaker 2: twenty eight point three percent. So I think you kind
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: of alluded to it earlier, like we're kind of choosing
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: between six guys, and I think one kind of nice
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: rule would be to only use one match one running
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  Speaker 2: back outside of this group, where you take your chance
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  Speaker 2: on a really contrarian guy, but then you kind of
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  Speaker 2: respect the fact that there are that there is this
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  Speaker 2: group of running backs who all have a pretty good
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  Speaker 2: probability of success, and so you don't want to deviate
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  Speaker 2: from them too much, because again, it's it's that sort
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  Speaker 2: of concept where it's not just about being right about
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  Speaker 2: who we play, we also have to be right about
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  Speaker 2: who we don't play. And if you're deviating from this
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  Speaker 2: group with two contrary running backs, you're really kind of
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: pushing the envelope in terms of the bet that you're
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  Speaker 2: making of how well these guys don't do. And so
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  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of a really good place to start.
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  Speaker 2: So you know, that kind of means you maybe pick
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  Speaker 2: your favorite two from this group, pick your favorite from
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  Speaker 2: this group, and then use a wide receiver, a tight end,
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  Speaker 2: the flex anything like that. But but yeah, I think
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  Speaker 2: it's a great place to kind of start with this
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  Speaker 2: late because it is worth noting, like I think all
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  Speaker 2: of these guys are worth the ownership. They are high
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  Speaker 2: probability plays. It doesn't mean that we can't find some
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  Speaker 2: really good contrarian options as well, but we should definitely
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  Speaker 2: respect this group this week. It's it's not one of
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: those situations where I feel like, hey, this guy's gonna
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  Speaker 2: be thirty percent and he is no business being thirty percent.
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  Speaker 2: So we can really kind of start our lineup with
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  Speaker 2: how to leverage the spot.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, note like just something to be said for
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  Speaker 1: We talk about this all the time, whether people leaving
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: it or not, but certainly it's a thing where whatever
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  Speaker 1: happened last week, people kind of like try and migrate
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to that. If it's a Sunday night football game and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a five to one bus it doesn't do well the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: next night, five to one is less, is lower owned.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: If it's a last week it was like you stack
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  Speaker 1: three wide receivers with a cheap guy and then you
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  Speaker 1: get the two stud running backs. That's sometimes what leaks
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: into the following week. And so what's interesting to me
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: about that just pairing the two together now and kind
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: of cross referencing because we talked a ton about these
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: running backs already, is that the quarterbacks that are showing that, like,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: let's do it this way. Actually, because you've got the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: ownership over there, I know you updated as the week
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: goes on. What are you seeing for the sort of
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: top three quarterback? Oh? Like again it spreads out. I
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: get it's not super high owned on anybody, But are
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: you seeing Josh Allen up there? Are you seeing Brissett,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor? Like? What are you seeing for the ownership
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  Speaker 1: or smaller field?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not entirely sure yet. This is this is
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: one of the reasons why I'm very kind of unsure
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: of where I'm going so far this week, because you know,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: last week kind of nailed the Jacoby Brissetts team. I
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: can't even remember who the second and third highest quarterbacks
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: were last week, but we were all over We had
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: one of our best ownership weeks of the last few years.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: It was a really really good one. This week, I'm
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not anywhere near that point yet where
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: I feel confident about, you know, knowing where the field
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: is going to go a quarterback. I have Jane and
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Daniels and Jacoby Brissett as the top two, and I
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: think the Daniels one is is tougher because on the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: one hand, McLaurin is a very easy stack partner. Deebo
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: has looked good enough. I think enough people can go
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: to Ertz, but I don't know yet that people are
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: going to feel confident in Daniels actually, just from a
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: you know, a health standpoint and can he play well
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: enough to to really help that stack kind of take
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: off this week. Brissette I feel confident about. I think
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Brissette's going to be pretty chocolate. We've got him a
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: twelve percent. And I also feel fairly confident that Josh
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Allen is not going to be the twelve to fifteen
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: percent that he's being projected for around the industry in
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of places, just because he's so hard to
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: stack finding the right guys. Speaking of someone who used
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: him last week and like literally five minutes into the
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: game realized this isn't going to work. There's just no
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: chance I have the right combination of pass catchers because
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: they weren't even on the field enough to be able
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: to pick the right guys. I think people are going
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: to be turned off from that a lot. Plus people
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: want James Cook more than anyone else, and Cook and
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Alan are very universally correlated, as we've seen over the years.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: So beyond that, I think there's there's a chance for
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence steam and there's a chance for Tyro Taylor's steam.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: I think both Jordan Love and Kayler Williams could end
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: up brought higher than their expectations just because people like
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: those wide receivers. I don't think either of those guys
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: are going to become like fifteen percent or anything like that.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: But you know, if you look around the industry, you'll
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: see somewhere between three percent, five percent something like that
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: for those guys, and it wouldn't surprised me to see
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: eight to ten for either of them. But that's kind
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: of it. So it's It's yet another week where no
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: one's really separating from an ownership perspective at the quarterback position,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: and the overall like contrarian verse differentiation kind of level
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: of your stack is much much more about who are
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: the wide receivers and tight ends in your stack and
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: less about the actual quarterback themselves.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Well, that yeah, exactly, And that's why I brought that
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: up too, because I think that's one of the more
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: interesting pieces of how this slate is shaking out. So
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: you and I both like slaves like this when there's
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: uncertainty or people are a little bit scared of this,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: that or the other. It's because I was talking to
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: somebody on a call yesterday about this. It's like when
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: you had last week, all those stacks felt a bit gross.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: If you had Tyler Shock stacks, if you had the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Brissette stacks, if you had the Tyrod Taylor stacks, et cetera,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But what last week said to
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: me was like, you're gonna need the ceiling score from somewhere.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: The most likely ceiling scorer last week was coming from
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: running back. There was ways to do sneaky things Like
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: last week. I call it the trifecta. But when you
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: have Breis hall chalk that seems extremely fragile last week, right,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: and you have Bijon across from him the Tyrod stuff.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: By the way, Tyrod came in at like four point
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: eight in the Millionmaker. The other guys, Yes, they were
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: popular values, but they were like ten and eleven. It
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: wasn't anything too crazy. And then Bijon broke the slate
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: at a much lower ownership than the running backs in
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: his range. You could play the Tyrod stack instead of Paul.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: You'd play with it too, but just noting this. Then
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: you could flip haul over to Bijeon step two and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: then step three that was either already a pivot off
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of a popular a chan with Bijon two hundred bucks difference,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: or you could play them together. And that's my line.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I had a lineup that came in fifth in the
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: one to fifty three max last week, and that's kind
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: of how I started. After that, you just fill in
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the blanks again, as I always say, if that doesn't
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: come through, it's not results orient because that one did well.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's why we're talking about it, but it's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: saying that the reason I was very comfortable with that
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: because it's like an if this then that it could
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: have been with the Tyler Shuck version of it with
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Vla and Olave, could have been with a Briset version
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: with a couple of wide receivers with Harrison Junior last
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: week and Wilson and just see how that pans out.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean they're all going to pan out for you,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: but it's like that's where the comfortability came from on
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: what's a uncomfortable slate. So hopefully people know you can
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: apply that same thought kind of this week. Got to
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: give this one a shout out, my man, little ten
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: dollar donation. We appreciate that very much, says Since finding
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the show, I've watched a ton of content, but this
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: one hits different. It's given me the fuel and the
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: confidence to think differently than the field. And that's really
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the hope of this right as we're trying to really
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: think through our thought process. Give it out so everybody
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: can sort of get their stuff and put it together.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Take ideas from the chat and the engagement from all
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: of you guys. So man, thank you so much. We
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Happy holidays to you and yours just going
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: back to it though, these these running backs you talked about,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I wonder how how often based on those quarterback thoughts
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: you had, do you think we see like a James
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Cook and a Chan together for example.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's gonna be a little bit tougher this
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: week because we definitely don't have the super cheap stack
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: like like Tyro last week. And I was right there
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: with you. I mean, my leverage lane last week was
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen Stacks and then by Saturday night I was
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: totally off to Josh Allen Stack onto a Tyrod double
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: with with with Bjeon has to bring back. And then
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: I had both a Chan and Wattle, So I wasn't
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: gonna take anything down because I had Wattle and Metchi
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: in that lineup. But it would have been a really
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: good week and instead I had a terrible week. So
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: it's it's kind of been that way for me over
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: the last month. I'm really close to landing on the
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: right thing and making the wrong decision. But eventually those
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: two V twos are the one big one works in
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: your favor. So hopefully we get that this week. But yeah,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I think there there will definitely be people who try
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: to kind of emulate the exact same style of lineup
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: that won last week where they tried to go really
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: cheap with stack. Just why I think Haylea Williams and
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: Jordan love Can can really kind of come up, just
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: because it's it's so easy to play through that game
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: to go Burden and Christian Watson. If you're playing both
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: those guys, you're already hoping that game has explosive plays.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Throw one of those quarterbacks in at a tight end
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: or something like that, right, So, I do think that
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: could end up more popular, and that would then kind
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: of push people towards Cook and e Chan. I think
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: that will be by far the most popular of the
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: like really expensive guys. But we could easily also see
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: like people choose between Cook and e Chan at the top,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: and then their second guy in is going to be
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: one of the cheaper guys. So then you know they've
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: got Cooker a Chan up top, and then they're going
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: maybe Breesearch Jacobs next, or they're going all the way
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: down to Harvey and Walker. We could also like that's
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: that's another thing we could definitely see where everyone has
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: the same structure and it's you're choosing between a Chan
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and cook up top. Then you're choosing between Paul and
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Jacobs in the mid tier, and you're choosing between Harvey
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: and Walker as the chief running back, and everyone that
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: just has different variations of those six.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: That's why I started there too, like I agree, And
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: we're strolling down leverage Lane. Alex is running a few
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: steps ahead of me. He's faster, slimmering, so he's headed
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: out on the road a little bit faster than me.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: But you got to something I really wanted to get to,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: and Justin had just posted in here. Now we had
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: this already this season. I believe it was those two,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: wasn't it the infamous call of like this one's gonna
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: get squeezed, this one's gonna pop up? And you said
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: something very key there, whether you knew it or not.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Of what I'm seeing is even if we get the
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: kinkid news, by the way, still no full practice on Friday,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: he looked pretty ginger. There's a video of him out there,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: you can go see it on X and I don't
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: know if he was even still wearing the brace. So
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: if we see knocks pop up, yes, there's ways to
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: get to Josh Allen. We are seeing ownership on him,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: et cetera. But I definitely think more people are just
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: happy to click James Cook there for one thousand dollars
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: less than a Chan. And when they don't do that,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: what do you think they do? They say, if I'm
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: not playing eighty eight hundred dollars a Chan, why don't
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I just play on the other side? And then they
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: can figure out because you nail the key point, when
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: do the other two? Most if it's Harvey and Jacobs
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: there in the afternoon, I can kind of just spin
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that around with whatever else I put in my lineup.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: So I am seeing a lot more thoughts and people
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: talking about James Cook and Hall. Also, that is two
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: of the home running backs right that you're playing. I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: know there's love for Ada and I Mitchell still, and
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I get that. I think if someone has I actually
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty close. Like it has to be very
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: close to the same money, right for a two v
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: two whatever one's one hundred bucks more expensive, it's a
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Chan and Mitchell versus Hall and Waddle has to be
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: just like a natural two v two. What any thoughts
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: on that that combo pack? I mean, regardless of what
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the rest of your lineup looks like and kind of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: where you'd go with that or thinking around it.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely think you're onto something there. I think
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: another way of just framing it is just saying so
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: many people are going to look at that and say,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: both of these running backs Chan and Breese Hall have
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: good matchups. Both have a potential for a positive game
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: script or games here that works in their favor more
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: so than they've typically gotten this year, because neither of
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: these teams are the greatest, and so the vast majority
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: of lineups, maybe not the vast majority, but so many
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: lineups are going to have at least one of these guys,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: and so I think it's worth at least considering the
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: idea of playing both or playing neither instead of just
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: choosing one. Because both of those things, like they're two
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: chunky running backs. Whether you choose to play them together
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: or choose to fade both, that's just automatically going to
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: kind of make you a little bit different than what
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: most people are choosing to do.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I think so as well. And again we do this
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: every week on the Takedown Breakdown Naid's and I'm a guy.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: We look up the stack seeker on the dB or
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the Fantasy Labs thing where you can go through and
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: see it, and a lot of people have those secondary stacks.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: But then if you put like I'm just picturing ahead
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: of time, it's kind of what we do in the
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: second segment. We'll get there soon. But just you know,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: when you put and haul together, how many people will
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: run that. It's usually people picking between and I think
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: that secondary stack. Again, we've talked about this plenty of
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: times in the past. Well, you know it projects, well,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: therefore it is going to end up something like that
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: in the common build. It doesn't always like it's already
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: all priced in and cooked into to the to the setup.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: So it's not necessarily going to be a guarantee that
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: that makes each other thing each other work or whatever
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you want to look at from that perspective. So other
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: thing I was thinking of, too, is you could also
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: go with if you like those running backs. And this
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: is jumping ahead again, but I think both those defenses
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: could be interesting. We know both those quarterbacks capable of
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: making mistakes, and if you want to slice into the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: ownership on haul with the Jets D at twenty five hundred,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: or you want to slice into the A Chan ownership
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: with the Dolphins. I think you could do that as well.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: That's just another spot that you could go there. Any
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: anything with this next conversation that you want to add on,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: because I think part of the a Chan conversation two
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: to me at least, would be that you do have
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: you know, Puka Nakua Itams, Jamar Chase, Like, there is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: still some big boy receivers that are popping and they've
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: got ownership attached to them at least some way, shape
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: or form. It's just that's where people go when they
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: go to higher priced wide receivers. So maybe we can
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: move there next and just see what you're seeing with
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: that and how that shakes out as it leads towards
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the common build if at all.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, i think we're all start there is. It does
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: seem to me like relative to particularly ceiling, Jason Smith
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: and Jigba is going to be the most on our
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: own of all the studs. I'm hoping he gets to
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: the point where he got a couple weeks ago where
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: we were all over him. He was my leverage lane.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: He put up forty plus. That'd be great if we
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: could get that situation again. Right now, I've got him
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: projected at twelve and a half percent in single entries,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: but I do think there's probably going to be a
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: meaningful difference in ownership between himself and then Pokah Chase
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: a Chan, So there's definitely a chance there. And then, man,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: if you really wanted to kind of lean into that concept,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: you could potentially go both Smith and Jake but and
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: Bejon Robinson and hope that game kind of takes off
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: because of those two guys, and it's going to be
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: hard to fit. But now you have kind of two
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: of the controlling guys because I've got Bijon at just
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: eleven percent in single entries, and certainly that is going
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: to be a low owned combination, not just because they're
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: both you know, more contrarian among the studs, but also
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: because they're really priced prohibitive, So there's naturally going to
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: be a bit of a unique combination. So that's that's
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: a very kind of unique way to kind of attack
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: this sleep. But it's it's very intriguing because they without
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: question are correlated with one another more so than a
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: lot of running back wide receiver pairs. So yeah, I
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: hadn't really given that much stuff, but now that I
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: mentioned it. I do kind of like that idea quite
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: a bit.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the tricky part is just the pricing that's associated
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: with it. I mean, it's not that level because it's legit,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: like you said, it makes perfect sense, but it's what
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: else is available on the slate, the entire slate dynamics.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: And then from a perspective of thinking about like the
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor stuff these last couple of weeks, it's like, look,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: we get it. He's Jonathan Taylor. He couldn't. It just
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: turns out he didn't have good weeks. But had you
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: have had good weeks, it could have still been like
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: one hundred and ten the bonus and a touchdown and
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: you're like great, but still wasn't really needed right, Still
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: not really what's required for the hat. So I mean
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: that's a very sneaky setup, like you said, But then
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: what is the stack that goes around it. I loved
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: your call pre show that we talked about. It was like,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: you know, people go back to the well on tyrod
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: ad Nai Mitchell Mechi and then figure out who they wanted,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: whether it's Wattle, a chm Both, Waller, whatever. But it's
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: like the price bump on the other side is what
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: is it like twenty three hundred or something already or
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: twenty five hundred almost on the jets, So it's not
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: as free as it was last week. And there's other
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: ways that you can look at this slate. So I
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: think that stands out to me as well.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Tyron's six hundred dollars more expensive than he was
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: last week, Mitchell is a thousand more expensive, and Metchi
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: is seven hundred more expensive, So it's it's a totally
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: different type of stack this week than it was last week.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: And also, like Miami is still not a good defense,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: They've very much outperformed expectations. They've blown away my expectations
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: for them. But one of the things is like they
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: they really really have done a good job at preventing
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: explosive pass plays. So when teams have succeeded against them,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: it's mostly been a success, right thing, It's you know,
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: seven eight yards at a time, it's not the forty
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: yard or over the top that if you're playing at
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: and I Mitchell, like, that's what you're hoping for. So
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: I still think that that stack is in play. I
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: still think Mitchell's in play. We saw Mitchell get volume
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: last week. It wasn't just the explosive play. But I'm
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: not anywhere near as intrigued by the stack as I
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: was last week.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Right, and the other thing too, Just a note for
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: last week, a couple different things, Like on that game,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I would say, because we're gonna get there shortly anyway,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: But like the Metchi had plenty of opportunities. He actually
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: dropped a touchdown, like there was there was apportunity there.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: The other thing about a chen and if he does
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: somehow end up getting squeezed because of eighty eight hundred
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: and even if it's just like kept in check and
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: he comes in somehow at like fifteen percent or something,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: that would be awesome to me, because that was a
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: horrible game, to be honest. Last week he had a
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: catch for a touchdown that he couldn't get. He had
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: two different opportunities in the red zone, very close to
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the end zone, things like that, where and he still
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: had twenty two point four. It reminds you of the week.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: What was it a few weeks back when man, there
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: was somebody we were on that we were like, okay,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: they had a good week last week, but not a
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: great week. And the next week they came out and
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: just smashed. It might have been Gibbs or something like that,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: and then it was like, okay, you didn't even have
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: that was like a floor game for him. And the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: next week comes out and just goes off.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: So it was Gibbs. It was after the Minnesota game
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: where he was kind of played off the field just
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: because of the way Minnesota was blitzing, and then we said, okay,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: but that usage is not going to carry over into
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: this next game, and sure enough he went for forty
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: plus against Washington.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Love that. That was the week I was on
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: him and somebody else for leverage lane, So I had
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: a good one that week as well. Got to shout
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: up my man, Freddie beesays show in the industry for
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Sam what's up to me? We did have a great
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: master Mind mentorship call yesterday, So good luck to you
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Really love doing that stuff, so appreciate everybody in the
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Mastermind project. If you guys want to check it out,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: you can go to ship at nation dot com slash Mastermind.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: There's about nine spots left. I sent the email out
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: yesterday from the original fifty that i'd sent out before
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the one time option closes off and changes at fifty
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: percent off. So just looking at the other spot tight end,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if this is real, but
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some pretty high ownership on a couple of
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: these guys. What are you seeing at the tight end position?
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Before we moved? Spending a little more time today on
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: segment two because I know there's a lot of different
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: ways and game stacks and things like that that you
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: can go this week. People will love to hear our
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: thoughts on all of that. What are you seeing though?
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Lastly at we'll do tight end in defense quick? Just
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: what you see there?
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is another really really tough one. I don't
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: see Pits getting quite as high as some other sites
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: have him, but I do think he's going to be
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: pretty popular. There's definitely a naredive here that the one
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: thing the Seattle defense allows is just like these underneath throws,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: and so tight ends can can really just kind of
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: rack up the PPR points. I'm checking our DVOA adjusted
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: fantasy points against you to see how titands Yeah, and
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: so Titands are plus three point seven fantasy points per
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: game against Seattle. That's the fourth best tight end matchup
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: and every other position is a is a negative matchup
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: going up against the Seahawks defense. So that's why we're
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: seeing so much ownership there. But it's not one of
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: those things where like I think it's a great spot
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: for him, I think, And and the other thing is
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: the way that guys are scoring against Seattle. It's not
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: big plays, it's not a bunch of touchdowns, it's just
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: PPR points. So if you're telling me, Okay, Pitts is
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: gonna get thirteen or fourteen instead of his you know,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: around ten point average whatever, it is great that that
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: doesn't scare me if I'm fading that. And I think
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: there are some really intriguing tight ends this week. But
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: there's also a chance that you know, the the ownership
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: projections are the industry are wrong. People recognize, oh, I
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: don't really want to play anyone who's relying on a
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Kirk Cousin's throwing to them against an elite Seattle defense.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: And maybe he comes in at twelve percent and now
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: he becomes a good play. So I don't have an
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: issue with Pitts. I think Warren could end up steaming
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: and becoming really popular. We've got him at fourteen percent,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: the second most popular. Like I said, I think Lovelin
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: could end up popular. We've got him at nine percent,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: McBride at eight and a half percent. Both of those
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: guys to me have serious, serious steam potential, where if
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: either of them came in at twenty percent, I wouldn't
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: be shocked, But beyond that, I don't think anyone else
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: has a chance to get that high. I think Bowers
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: is probably the most intriguing of all to me. But
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: then you can also just say, you know what, whatever
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: stack i'm doing, whatever game i'm targeting, I'm just gonna
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: find my tight end from there. So Juwan Johnson I'm
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: interested in. I would be interested in Evan Ingram two.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: The only problem there is we've seen a pretty consistent
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: pattern so far this year from Denver, which is whenever
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: they're playing an elite pass rusher, they kind of favor
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: their blocking tight ends more so than Ingram, and so
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: against Max Crosby, I think we could see a fewer
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: routes run for Ingram. So not totally interested there, But yeah,
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: I think Bowers and Jowan Johnson are the two most
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: likely guys that are gonna end up in my lineup.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: But there are plenty of options this week, and I
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: think it's just one of those things where even if
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: you are using someone who could end up steaming and
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: being twenty percent, that's fine. You just have to kind
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: of approach your lineup with the knowledge in mind that, hey,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: my tight end might not be the contrarion guy that
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: I think he is. Maybe you think he's still high
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: probability enough to play him. Fine, just make sure you
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: have enough differentiation and separation elsewhere.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: And anything quick at the defense. I do have extra
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: thoughts there, but I'm gonna save them for the second
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: segment just in a minute here, but because for my
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: own selfish reasons too, and just want to see it
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: and it'll be sharing them with everyone, So not completely selfish,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: but I have some curiosity and I want to pick
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: your brain on that. But real quick, just while we're
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: on it, just to wrap up segment number one and
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: then we'll put together the common build. Just final thoughts,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: move on to the second segment. What is the defense
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: stuff that you're seeing right now? I think we saw
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland quite popular in places just because they're going up
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: against cam Ward. That's always a freeb spot to most.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: By the way we did see last week Seattle D
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: at ownership get there. I know people freak out about
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that stuff. It's like, obviously it was a good spot.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: You take what you get. You don't expect to get thirty,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: but yeah, it's an undrafted free agent at quarterback that
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: they're gonna let throw the ball. So I know people
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: go up in arms about it. You were allowed to
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: play Seattle D, so the good news and many did
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: so just a note, it sucks sometimes when that kind
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: of breaks the slate. I get it. You don't have that,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: You're like, well, if I don't have Seattle D, I'm dead.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: But that's kind of the point of anything we talk
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: about with ownership. You're allowed to play whatever you want.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: You just have to figure it out elsewhere. And that
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: was clearly a pretty good spot. And just not expecting
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: thirty anything you got on this week.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: For defense, yeah, I just in general, I've kind of
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: felt this way since last season, and this season has
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: kind of proven it more and more as were going along.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: But I think the average DFS player and spend anywhere
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: near enough time thinking about who they're playing a defense
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: because it is an extremely random position, no question, But
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: where the spikes come from is not that random because
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: you know, a lot of the time it's like maybe
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: a defense gets to nine or eleven because they got
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: a touchdown. That's really hard to predict. But nine or
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: eleven points, twelve points, that doesn't bury everyone who doesn't
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: have them. The twenty four twenty seven thirty those performances
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: pretty much only come from aggressive, good defenses going up
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: against a mistake prone offense that is going to be
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: in a game script where they have to throw the
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: ball and they have to you know, take those risks
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: and try to push the ball down field. So I
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: think it's worth just spending a little bit more time
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: thinking about, Okay, what are all of those potential spots
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: this week? The Cleveland defense, the Denver defense, Like those
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: two are so far above everybody else in our defensive
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: projections over at FTN. I think they deserve to be
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: that far ahead of everybody else, And I really like
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: both this week. I think the Browns are going to
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: be very popular even though they're thirty seven hundred. The
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Titans to me are the bad chalk where they are
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: the best of all of the really cheap options. But
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: it's unlikely that the Cleveland offense is going to be
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: in a game scope where they have to push the
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: ball down field. So I think, you know, Shadora is
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: going to continue to be able to play as risk
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: averse of a style as he's willing to play. They're
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: going to be able to run the ball out, They're
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be able to throw to the tight ends, use
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: play action, things of that nature. So to me, Tennessee
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: is the bad chalk where Cleveland and Denver, if Denver
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: even gets there, are the good chalk, but probably another
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: slate where I actually want to pay up this week.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the interesting thing about Tennessee sometimes it is like
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: opposite side and that that happens a ton. That's just
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: like running backs. We talk about this all the time,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: where it's like, yes, the game flow could switch. The
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: difference is this is Tennessee going do a very cold
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Cleveland the dog Pound, one of the most difficult places
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: to play. So I'll just add this little tidbit on quickly,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: but it's not really even a tidbit. Just in my
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: thoughts on in a note is if Cleveland smashes like
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Seattle did this week, and you're gonna complain about all
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: these chop defenses, just keep getting there. Miles Garrett doesn't
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: give a shit about snow cold nothing. He's going for
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: the record and he gets to tee off on a
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: guy that he can get five on this game. So
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: if they do that, if the ball comes loose, if
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: whatever else happens, yes they're going to be chalk. But
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: there is eight other positions in your lineup you can
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: use to your advantage if that's where you so you
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: know kindly want to land. And I'll say it in
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: that way because this show is a single entry focus.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: So you are going to be deciding that as part
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: of your lineup if you can't get to them, if
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: you like the lineup better without it. I always talk
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: about people that are going through sort of their thoughts, right,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: they have options, they have thoughts, then they get to conviction,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: and conviction starts to build the lineup. Again, we're talking
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: single let you whether you do it a virtual handbuild
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: with the stone, the optimizer of the two use, whatever
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: it might be, whether you're just putting it in by hand, whatever,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: there is some conviction in there. What I see too
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: often though, is people leave their conviction instead of leaving
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: stuff that that's just kind of like fitting it like, So,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: if your conviction is Cleveland has you have to have
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: them this week, then don't change your defense. But typically
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: there's a bunch of other defenses. It's a highly variant
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: position where you can make those moves around. If your
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: conviction is that it's a Jamar Chase game, then don't
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: just settle for Higgins. Yes it's a similar spot, Yes
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: it could happen, but if it's your conviction. Now if
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: it's not, and you're like, oh, well it could be Higgins,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I just kind of want to get a piece of
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: that Bengals pass game. Well, then yeah, you can move
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: on that piece and you can say I'll go O
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Lave to Vla, I'll go Chase to Higgins. Whatever you decide,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: and think about your roster as a whole, but don't
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: move off your conviction. And if that's one of the
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: spots you have high conviction, just figure it out and
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: try to get different elsewhere. It's definitely a thing this
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: week that could be real. I'd never even heard this before.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I've heard I've definitely asked you about this. We're gonna
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: get this one solved. My boy Alex is gonna care
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: but he promised, but the blick Scord. I didn't I
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: know about like the name and all that stuff, but
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I didn't know what it's called. The blick Scord. That's
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: a good name, good name for your discord.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: I haven't named it that, but but cat guy here,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: he loves calling it that, and he's he's awesome. I
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: know you you're kind of familiar with this as well,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: but you end up with certain subscribers who just they
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: get it. They make the community infinitely better and and
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: he's definitely one of them. And I should mention, by
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the way, I don't think I have taken down the
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: promo code Turkey Day yet from Thanksgiving week, So if
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: anyone wants to take advantage of the fact that I
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: am not good at remembering to do those little things,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: you can still use Turkey Day for twenty percent off,
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: and you can use that for a month or an
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: entire year and just kind of really take advantage that way.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I definitely go check that out. And it's
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: been it's been awesome. It's a lot of fun, and
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: the community one hundred percent has made me a better
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: DFS player, just from the way we all kind of
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: talk through slates and it's been it's been a blast.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that's funny too because you know,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: not in on the blick scored marketing side of things,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: but the Turkey day code is still good to go.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: So you know, our man stat always in here. We
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: appreciate you. So I love the conviction chat pick a lane,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: go one hundred miles an hour. Yeah, I agree. We've
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: talked with this a ton. You've helped out over at
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: the Mastermind Project. We did another takedown breakdown recently for
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving week. But it's not like I said, that's
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: like me tacking on to your your point here, stat,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I love it of going to one hundred miles an hour.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: It's just like I think what happens is people like
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: try and switch lanes when they were already in the
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: lane they wanted to be in, and so just keeping
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: taking the analogy one step further, it's like they do
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: pick their lane and then they change out of the
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: one thing like maybe if they want to slow down
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: in their lane a little bit, that's okay, as long
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: as they stay in their lane and then maybe make
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: a slight move. But what happens is people go out
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: of their lane and then wonder why they crash. You
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: went outside the lines. That's that's what happened. So Stramy
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: brings up a good point too, Washington versus giving ja
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: hashtag nine or not hashtags quote quote unquote nine. That's
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a good one too. I think that act she could
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: pick up some steam as well. At twenty eight hundred
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: we might actually see. To be honest, this is a
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: kind of good segment. Segue into the second segment is
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: you could see this is kind of interesting, Alex. A
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: bunch of jumble thoughts. You could see Tennessee defense come
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: down to that side. And what I'm wondering is if
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: that's the case, I'm actually not sure many people are
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: playing or as it as some are saying. I don't
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: think as many people can be playing Quinn Shawn Judkins
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: this week as we might think. And it's actually a
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: pretty good spot, a pretty good matchup. It could just
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: be also to some of those Garrett sacks lead to
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: like a fumble turn or whatever, and it's just they're
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: sitting there at the six yard line. It's like, all right,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Judkins will just run this three times and one of
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: them will go in, if not the first one, because
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: he's very shifty, So I think that's interesting too. Is Judkins?
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Where do you have him right now? Just you know,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: now that we're into the sort of second segment, different
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: ways to play and whatnot, that kind of stands out
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: to me. I've got him somewhere in the twelve to
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: fifteen range.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: I thought what you were taking that was that the
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Washington Defense is going to be a popular pivot off
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: of Tennessee, which case I very much agree, and I
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: think they'll end up around fifteen percent or so as well.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Let's see, I have got Jenkins just under ten percent
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: of nine point eight percent, which I think is probably
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: pretty solid. You know, he's he's one of those where
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: like if he were a pivot off of the Harvey
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: and Walker price group instead of the Breie and Jacob's
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: price group, I think he'd be popular. I think he'd
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: be one of those guys kind of even with those
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: guys in ownership. But because he's an extra eight hundred
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: seven or whatever, I don't think he's gonna steam much
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: beyond beyond this at all.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, that's good to know. So any final thoughts
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: on sort of wrapping up what you're seeing as the
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: common build. I think a lot of it, to me
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: at least stems from the running back position. Like I mentioned,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I think secondary stacks become very common where it's like,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: if you see a walker, Kyle Pitts could pick up
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: more steam than you might think. Right now, we talked
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: about how you can literally flip a Chan and Mitchell
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: or Metchi to Paul and Waddle. You're seeing stuff like that.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: You're seeing some of the other guys that we talked
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: about in the afternoon, clearly the Jacobs burden. So I
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: think we see a lot more like secondary secondary secondary
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: cap it off with a quarterback that stacks with somebody
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: and throw in one of those popular defenses. You have
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: anything you want to add when it comes to that,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: but that kind of it's how I see it right now,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: at least anyway.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just the only thing I'll add is I
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: just see a lot of you know, trying to save
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: money with pass catchers, and we've seen this kind of
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: build a lot this season. Doesn't mean that people aren't
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: going to be able to pay out for Pooka or
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Chase or JSN in places, but I think overall people
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: are trying to save money with these cheaper pass catchers,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: particularly this week, because there are some pass catchers who
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: offer some real upside. We've seen Michael Wilson show real upside.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: We know that both Luther Burden and Christian Watson have
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: a ton of big play upside. So it's just, you know,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: particularly when you're chasing that two hundred fantasy point day,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: that two it really lends itself to this structure. You're
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: getting twenty plus performances, twenty plus point performances from cheap
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: wide receivers, and now you're getting the running back who
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: goes for one hundred and fifty and two scores. It
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: makes sense, but if we get a really low scoring slate,
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: it also like it actually kind of raises the likelihood
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: that we get the low scoring slate because these are
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: boomer bust cheap wide receivers, and there is the potential
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: that you know, Watson, Watson was failing last week and
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: would have failed if not for the one bomb touchdown.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: If you take that one play off the board, he fails,
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: there's a you know, obviously there's a there's a chance
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: that Burden does the same sort of thing, finishes with
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: three receptions for forty yards or something like that, and
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: So it's just one of those where I think it's
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: it's very hard to come up with like the best
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: answer immediately of Okay, if I'm if I'm pivoting off
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: of this type of build, how am I doing it?
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: What am I going to? But I just think like
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: the glaring thing to me is that it's once again
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: a very predictable type of lineup that people are building.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: They're trying to find the cheap upside through the pass
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: catchers to pair with the really high probability running backs,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: and that's not going to work every single week this season,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: even though it has hit at a very high rate
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: so far this year.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll segue into the second segment, which is sort
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: of how to leverage the common build. I have an
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: immediate thought right out of the gates. Like I said,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: I'll pick Alex's brain on some other stuff. I'm pretty
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: certain on where my leverage lane will be already, and
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: we'll see how that ends up shaking out. Just because
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: there's one game in particular I have a little liking towards,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: but there's you know, other lineups as well. I don't
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: know if stat like this is another one. I think
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: it's the opposite. I think there's so much certainty of
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: people being again doesn't mean it's gonna happen. But I'm
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: saying people think it's like Cook h and Jacobs Hall,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: and then your your tertiary options of like Harvey Walker,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Bucky like it's fine. I think it's actually that is
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: what's forcing it. And I think that's perfect segue and
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: why I'm glad you brought that up.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Well, I think it's just real quick. I think you're
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: both correct right where you're saying it's because people like
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the certainty of the expensive or at least mid tier
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: running backs. But I think Stat's also correct in saying,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: like the value running backs don't offer certainty at all.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: The closest you can get to certainty with the value
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: running backs is this R J. Harvey ken Walker type
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: of range. But that's a rookie running back who hasn't
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: been that effective with his opportunities so far, and you know,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: got there with touchdowns last week. Ken Walker, who especially
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: in these potential blotout scripts, keeps getting vultured over and
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: over and over again by Sharbona and like the only
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: time he's really had, you know, control over the backfield
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: touches is when they've been in highly competitive games. This
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: probably won't be that competitive game, so there's really no
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: certainty there. And then anywhere below that, like if when
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: you get into the price ranges where you're finding the
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Luther Burdens Christian Watson at fifty two hundred, there's just
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: no options from the running back position. So I think
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: you both are correct where.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: There's yeah, I think we're saying the same thing. It
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: just missed the word value because it's like it's yes,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: there's less certainty when you get to the Harvey's, the Walkers,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: et cetera. The people are very comfortable with those first
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: four of cook a Chan Hall and who's the Jacobs?
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Those four, like those are clear cut names, a lot
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: of three of the four at home, great matchups on paper,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: all this stuff that you're seeing, So I think that's
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: where it's very clear cut. After that, it's also because
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: of the value on the slate. Again, as people probably
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: know it definitely stat knows but for many. But when
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: you have ad and I Mitchell still only at forty
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: six hundred, I know it's a price boost from last week,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: But you have Michael Wilson at fifty six hundred bissing
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: at Dortsch and Harrison Junior. You got Luther Burden with
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: no Romo doones they like, that's just gonna build that lineup.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: So that's what I was going to hit earlier. The
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: immediate segment for me, or a segue for me going
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: into segment number two, Alex and had a leverage to
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: common build is to play some of those uncertain spots
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: and at the running backs, or figure out your build
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: and maybe play two running back and then use some
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: of these guys like you could still use a Michael
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Wilson in a four wide receiver build, especially if you
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: get to like a more balance. What if instead of
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Bucky Irving you play at Buca or Godwin. What if
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: instead of the the a Chan stuff you do play Waddle.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: What if instead of Warren at tight end you play
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Michael Pittman or something like that that you do like,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: you can definitely get to a more mid mid range build,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: but you could also use some of the cheaper values
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: lower than Luther Burden and Christian Watson and Michael Wilson
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: and Ad and I Mitchell and you. Though the guys
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about are like the VLAs who will still
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: get a little bit of love the Pat Bryants of
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the world instead of the RJ. Harvey's the whatever you
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: want to do on Arizona, I mean, if you want
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: to play Weaver or something like that, like I think again,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: that can just make it all work. But imagine a
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Weaver spot where you end up with McBride and Kuka
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: and that's different than like your JSN and bijon spending
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: similar money but doing it in a way it's going
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: to fit the rest of the stack. And then yeah,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: you are taking a risk on Weaver, but there is
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: no doors, There is no Harrison Junior. Could it be
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: THECLA guy or whatever like it could be anybody. I'm
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: just giving examples, but I certainly think playing the more
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: expensive wide receivers and tight ends and just flipping the
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: build on. Another reason I'm gonna keep this tangent going
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: is that's also a very nice indoor game on a
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: slate that has like six weather spots that you could
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: just try and figure it out and skip over all
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: the other stuff. So I just think little things like
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: that kind of out stand out to me. Is there
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: anything you got right out of the gates kind of
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: like my thought there that you want to add to it.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to me, like the first thought that
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: I have in terms of how to leverage this common
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: build is just the idea. And this is similar to
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: what you were saying, just the concept of, Okay, well,
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: what if one game really elevates and one game carries
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: an entire offense to successful performances, And I think there
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: are options kind of around the slate. Denver come to mind,
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Tampa comes to mind, Cincinnati comes to mind, where you're
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: just kind of hoping that like none of the other
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: games kind of really elevate to the level that we've
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: seen certain games elevate. Like I it's worth kind of
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: its own conversation and we'll probably go into this momentarily.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: But the Arizona stuff has been so interesting over the
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: last for or so weeks because on the one hand,
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: you can look at Jacoby Brissett's game logs, you can
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: look at you know, McBride's game logs or Michael Wilson's
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: game logs, and you see this like very consistent, constant production.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: But when you then look into okay, well how did
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: those games actually go? What what were the you know,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: ways in which these guys put up these numbers. It's
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: mostly been the same story, which is the offense is
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: ineffective for a quarter and a half, they end up
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: way behind, and now they end up throwing the ball
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: forty four, fifty seven, forty nine and forty attempts for
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: preset in the last four games. That's insanity. And so
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: much of the production has come when they're already down
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: twenty eight nothing against Seattle, they were down twenty nothing
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: like in a quarter and a half. They were already
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: down a big time against San Francisco when they started
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: to really produce. And so if you present a very
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: different game environment to a lot of these kind of
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: chalky games where the game environment just doesn't lend itself
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: to a lot of fantasy scoring, I do think we
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: could end up with a low scoring slate. And so
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: if you find the one game environment that does elevate everything,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: whether it's Cincinnati, Buffalo, or Denver or Tampa, you can
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: really really just kind of find yourself in business. We
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: saw it a little bit last week with the Jets,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: where it's not like they scored a million points, but
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: throughout the fourth quarter the Jets were in the mode
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: of we have to push the ball. We have to
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: get points quickly. And Tyron went from really not doing
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: a whole lot to the quarterback you needed very quickly.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: And that also took at an Imtchell for solid value.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: He's helping you to Oh my god, you really had
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: to have this guy to to win the slate. So
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: just find that one game environment that takes everything across
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: that line from decent play to great play. And I
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: think you can really kind of separate on this slate.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you nailed it, and just to you know,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: stack onto it if you will. Is what we said
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: when you're talking about leveraging the common build, and we
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: you know, my at least two cents was of the
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: secondary stacks. It's like the Burden with the Jacobs, the
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: ad Ni Mitchell with the a Chan stuff like anything
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: you have like that that you're seeing when you see
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: that this it's funny because it actually worked last week.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: But because they got a little bit more expensive, I
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: think the trip the double and the triple stacks will
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: be less. Not doubles because they're always popular, but I
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: think like a triple stack, for example, And I'll just
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: rattle off a few love Watson Dobbs and either Luther
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Burden on the other side, no Jacobs, or you go
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: to even like Wicks and something else and build it
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: and Loveland and do something like that, Like I don't
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: think a ton of pe go to that. We talked
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: already about the something like a Brissette, Wilson, Weaver, McBride,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Puka like anything like that that just takes over. Will
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: some of those force you into playing the what are
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: what people are calling the uncertain running backs? Yes, but
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: that could be the game changer that you need to
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: have for the slate. So little things like that matter.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: You'll going back to the well on Tyron Taylor with
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: ad Nai Mitchell, Matchie Waddle. You're using up all three
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: wide receiver spots and you don't have Christian Watson in there,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: you don't have Luther Burden in there, you don't have
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: Michael Wilson in there. Yeah, you're leaving out some dudes,
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: but what if they just get their mediocre scores. Trevor
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Lawrence situation this week, there is no Washington. You've got Myers,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Bryan Thomas Junior, Brenton Strange the other side. You've got options.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: For sure. You could go double tight end with Warren
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: if you do like him like others seem to, you
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: could go Pierce, you could go Pittman. There's alternatives there.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: And then you go back up to even the Where
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: was the other spot I was gonna look at? I
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: think somebody talked about this already. Oh, the the Tampa
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Bay Bucks game, like someone mentioned in the chat. But
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: if you have either side of that game, I'm not
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: sure which one you know would be the most interesting,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: but either side of that game, it definitely has options.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: The Bucks did not. They opened up the window on
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, but they're not ready to
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: come back, so they're not going to be playing this week.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: So you got a Buka Godwin Auton on the other side,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: will wait on the olave news, but you go to
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: Lave Vla Juwan Johnson. I think either sides of that
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: game are stackable. And then lastly, and I'll kick it
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: back to you, is the Burrow one Burrow Chase Higgins.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: And by the way, like I said, what if we
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: get the news one of the best spots going up
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: against for tight ends all season has been going against
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. What if you go Burrow, Chase Higgins and
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: run it back with Knox, assuming kink Aid doesn't play,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: or put Shakir in there and use up he's three
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: hundred bucks less than Michael Wilson. One, you could still
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: play Michael Wilson in the flex and play four wide receivers.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Two you could say Michael Wilson gets fifteen and Shakier
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: gets twenty five and makes the other side go by
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the way. I'll kick it to you on this note
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: because I think you kind of like Burrow this week.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: But Burrow tons of dropbacks in a competitive game right
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: until until it wasn't. Unfortunately, my Ravens can't find a
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: way to do much of anything in certain weeks against
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: certain opponents. But the conference battle did not go well
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: for them. But yeah, Burrow could just drop back a
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: ton of times. It's gonna be the first time since
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I think week two that he gets him Burrow, him, Chase, Sorry,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: and Higgins all back together and then on the Bill's
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: side with some injuries and stuff like that. Just depends
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: on how it plays out with the King kid news.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: If everyone's on Cook, you could fit him in there
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: as well. But what's your thoughts on some of those
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: game stacks and just different things that we talk about
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: in segment two.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Burrow was my very first thought of how to play
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: this light, particularly once Wing got Higgins back. It's just
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: a perfect storm where imagine last year getting to play
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Burrow at sixty five hundred with eighty two Chase and
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: sixty two Higgins. We just didn't get that right, Like
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Burrow was consistently in the sevens, Chase was nine US
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: and Higgins was still seven stuff like that. So yeah, yeah,
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is as cheap as we're
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: going to get to play these guys. It's it's actually
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: very similar to where I'm pretty sure I'm gonna go
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: for my elevage lane. But it's just an offense that
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: is the healthiest it's been all season in a game
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: environment where we could actually see them pushed by by
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: Buffalo where they could have to be hyper aggressive and
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: and get forty six you know, pass attempts again from
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: Burrow something like that. So yeah, it's it's a really
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: intriguing way to play the slate. The most obvious to
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: me is Burrow, Chase Higgins, James Cook. But obviously if
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: you use that group before, you're gonna have to find
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: a lot of saving de elsewhere, So I don't know
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: how viable that actually is. That's, you know, something I'm
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: gonna test in the in the sims a lot over
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: the next day and a half whatever. But but yeah,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: it's it's just a really, really, really good spot. It's
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: like just a it's almost a perfect spot from just
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: a DFS theory perspective, because you'd be ahead of the
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: on the offense, but you're getting the offense cheaper than
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: they usually are. You're getting a game environment that really
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: pushes them. And it's not just that one guy is contrariant.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: It's not just that Burrows contrarion, Like all of these
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: guys are contraring. Chase will be popular, but nowhere near
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: as popular as he would have been last year in
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: this game or this game environment at this price tag
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: thanks to that nature. So across the board they are
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: under owned and they're also under priced. That's usually a
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: winning combination. It's just a really hard thing to actually
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: pull off, to go with this entire stack and then
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: still feel like the rest of your lineup is strong.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the chat's starting to get to my leverage lane too,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: So we'll get there shortly. We're at the fifty five
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: minute mark. Probably not too much else to go through.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: You guys can put some questions in the chat as well.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: I saw one here, like what are your thoughts on
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the bills? D then clearly not as interested if you
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: are playing the Sinsey side, but you know the fact
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: that he drops back that much, maybe it could work out.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I would think that would be a unique way to
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: cut into the James Cook ownership. I do not think
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: the James Cook ownership is going away, but I don't
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: think you're going up against too much because I don't
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: see Burrow. I don't even see Jamar Chase being as
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: popular as a lot of places have him right now
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: once everything actually shakes out due to all the points
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: we've brought up throughout the show. But I'll let you
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: go ahead.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just don't like the thought, what
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: are the chances that a defense that isn't that good
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: to begin with this and produce a ton of fantasy
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: points gets more production against Joe Burrow than elite defenses
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: get against Gino Smith or cam Ward or Jacobe Priscent
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: or Kirk Cousins. Like if you're paying anywhere near thirty
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: four hundred dollars. You should just find a way to
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: get up to one of those really expensive defenses.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that call. Like I said, I get
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: it in large field stuff too. I see where people like, ah,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a mix of everything, and like some
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: of those builds will make sense and if you see it,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: I'm fine leaving it as a way to slice into
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the ownership. If you're not on any Bengals whatever, that's
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: sometimes how you get get a little bit lucky in
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: that case on a highly variant position. But just noting
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: to Alex's point, especially when we're talking a single entry
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: GPP focus, there is a lot of options that you
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: can just hammer it with and take your Maybe they
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: somehow beat them and there's like a oh but they
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: got eighteen and your defense only got seventeen. Well I
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: got seventeen. It had a very high likelihood of that
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: x versus the other spot took this to get it,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: So anyway, anything can happen anytime. I don't hate the thought,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: but definitely some other options there. Trying to see if
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: there was anything else that we missed of one interesting note,
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: I guess the last one I'll sort of leave it
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: with here Is on the Packers side of things, especially
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: because I don't think the Jacob's ownership is going to
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: go away either. I even think like that would be
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: where you know, you'd see you could see even more
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: people late swap to it. You know, maybe some swap
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: off of it because he is too popular. But I
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: actually think it's the setup where you could see more
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: people get to it. Then you think going in pre
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: slate so it becomes popular, then less people late swap anyway,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: But my thoughts are Wis, who's clear to go now,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: and the fact that Golden still could be out and
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: probably is. Wicks is one hundred dollars more than Luther
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Burd Again you can play them both together, but very
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: interesting in that game if you ended up going with
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: like a love Watson's popular, and I think for good reason,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: so you go love Watson Wis and then instead of
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: Burden use DJ Moore or instead of Burden use Zakias
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: or something like that. Do you have any thoughts I
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: got two spots I want to ask about. This is
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: one of them. Any thoughts on the other Packers guys
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: like Wis, and then any thoughts on the alternative Chicago
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: options if going that route. By the way, we know
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: it's cold in Lambeau, but Chicago quite quite capable of
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: playing in the cold. So I don't think anyone's too
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: worried about that game. It's not gonna be like the
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: coldest or anything. It's just what both these teams are
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: used to.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you're asking about this game because I mentioned
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: to you ahead of time that, like, I had some
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: some fun packer stats for you, and I almost forgot,
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: so I appreciate you're asking us perfect First, Jordan Love
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: has been one of the absolute best quarterbacks in the
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: league by dv Away when he's not pressured. In Chicago
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: is one of the worst teams at creating pressure, so
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: this a really good spot for Love to just be
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: successful in any regard. Then you get to the actual receivers,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: and there's been a really kind of clear pattern with Chicago.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: They already play a lot of man defense, but if
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: you think back to the start of the season, they
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: came out one of the man heaviest defenses in the league.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: They finally got Jalen Johnson back last week, and even
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: against Philadelphia, a team that most defenses have decided to
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: kind of zone up against because aj and Davante are
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: so good against man coverage. They played sixty two percent
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: man coverage, to be clear, like their thirty nine percent
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: man rate as charted by FTN data, has already been
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: one of the highest of the year, and they played
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent man last week. So I think we're
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: gonna see a ton of zone here form Chicago against
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Green Bay, which really really really lends itself to don
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Tavian Wicks above all. Else if there's no Matthew Golden,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: I think Dontavian Wicks is a phenomenal play, But Chris
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: and Watson's also been really good against man. Dobbs has
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: been a lot better again z own this year, but
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: he actually has a history last year of being quite
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: effective against man. So I think just the fact that
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: they're playing man or facing man just kind of helps
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: most of these guys. But Wis, to me is the
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: one who just so clearly benefits immensely. He's probably their
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: best route runner, probably their best man beater, might even
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: be like just their best receiver period. They just don't
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: seem to give him the opportunity that the other guys have.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: I think he's their most complete receiver, where like all
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: the other guys, even Jaden Reid included, they kind of
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: have a very clear cut role in the offense. Watson's
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: the deep guy, Dobbs is the underneath possession type receiver,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: Reid is the gadget, kind of big play guy. Wicks
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: does everything well. He's just not a specialist in anyone category,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: so they don't seem to give him the respect that
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: he deserves. But if he's once again thrust into a
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: very clear full time role, because we know Matthew Golden,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: he's the guy I want because he benefits immensely from
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: the type of coverages he's gonna face this week.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: I think that Romeo Dobbs gets like extra targets, the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: guardian cap treatment. They just see that big helmet and
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: they're like, oh, it's easy to spot, So they just
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: end up throwing the ball there when they're out there.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: But what about on the Chicago side, I mean, you
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: mentioned his name a little bit earlier. I can go
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: pull it up and I'm sure you have it there,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: maybe even know it off the top of the dome.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: But the Bears or sorry, the Packers versus the tight
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: end like what's bringing people to Loveland? Is it like
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: the setup? Again, not like he's going to be super popular.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying in that spot. One thing I always
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: like to think about is, Okay, what if I don't
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: go to Luther Burden, who sort of would it be?
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Or do you just think it's better to stick with Burden?
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: And then what thoughts on Loveland?
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: Quick Early in the season, green Bay was popping is
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: one of the best matchups for tight ends. They were
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: up at something like plus four fantasy points per game
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: in ourdvoad just at fantasy points against data. They're now
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: at negative point two, which means over the last let's
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: say four or five six weeks, they've been really quite
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: good against tight end. So I if the matchup is
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: driving the Loveland love, no pun intended there. I think
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit misguided because people just don't realize
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: how much how improved green Bay has been in that regard.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: But I think there's just a reasonable argument for the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: fact that Loveland is really good and the more they
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: use him, the more they throw to him, it's it's
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: been effective. And so when you take away one of
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: the premier pass catchers in the offense, the wide receiver
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: one in Romadunze. It's just very natural to say, Okay, well,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: why don't we throw more to one of the guys
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: who's already been having success. So I think just from
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: that point of view, there's merit to Loveland at thirty
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: two hundred dollars. But to me, it's not about the matchup.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: It's it's just about the increased opportunity and the fact
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: that he's already earning increased opportunity through his production.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Very interesting note, Actually this is funny. So what anwance
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: say here? Because I was looking it up as you
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: were talking and I heard all of it. But I
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: just want to say, like, that's a good stat pole
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: because I want to see this We care about this week,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: but I will know that we are sertingly horrible. Againsize
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: it could be why, but this is the thing, that's
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: why you gotta dig into this stuff. Why this dad
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: is so interesting? Do you know who they played? And
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: I don't remember them all already, but they played like
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: the Panthers Detroit with no laporta Hawkinson who's been an
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: absolute shell of himself with no quarterback to throw to him.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: The last time they faced a real tight end was
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Trey McBride, and he dropped ten for seventy four and
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: two on them. They haven't faced a tight end. I
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: don't care what anybody says. I'm calling this kid a
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: real tight end. Colston Loveland. This guy has a solid producer.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: There is no Romo Dunese. The chalk will be on Burden.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: I think it's really interesting. This is not my leverage lane,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: but I'm definitely thinking about this. For some of the
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: thoughts out there is like Love Watson wis Loveland double
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: Love Baby Love is in the air. You get Jordan
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Love Colston Loveland, and then you fill it out with
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Chok Watson, Christian Chockson and Dantavian Wicks who looked incredible
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving and has nothing to do with that. That's
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: just more of a time to shine when sometimes when
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: guys get the opportunity. We know what this guy was
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: capable of. We liked them on Thanksgiving, assuming the news
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: was gonna come out the way it did. So we'll
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: wait and see if Golden is out again. But I
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: think it's a great call from you, And then I
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: think just adding little tidbits like that in that's what
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: this is all about trying to figure it out. Thirty
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: two instead of thirty eight hundred dollars wide receiver chalk
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: that kind of goes with a Jacobs call. You can
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: get a different running back than Jacobs. Instead of Burden,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: use Wis and instead of Burden, use Loveland and use
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: up the tight end position that way. And like we
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: said it, now, you can still fit your Michael Wilson's,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: you can still fit your good running backs. You can
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: do whatever you want. So I kind of like that,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: And it's not even my leverage lane. Do you have
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: anything else on that you want to add? If not,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: I got one more spot I want to ask you about.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: It's it's a really good point on who Green Bay
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: has played because even though I'm citing a stat dvay
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: just at fancy points against data that knows that and
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: that accounts for the tight ends typical production, it's still
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: a different beast, if you will, because they haven't faced
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: tight ends lately that are a key of the offensive
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: game plan like Loveland could be maybe even should be
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: in this one, and that you know McBride was when
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: they when they played against him. So it's a really
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: good point and It's one of those things that like,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: this is true kind of all football data because football
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: is so hard to kind of capture statistically. It's like
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: every single stat is going to be incomplete in some way,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: and so our job when looking at football data is
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: to say, Okay, what is this stat missing? What can
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: we add, what kind of context can we add to it?
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: And directionally, what does that help tell us? And so
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: it's a it's a really good point about who they played.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: I think Loveland is a good play. It's also, though,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: why I think Loveland could end up being twenty percent
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: twenty five percent, because anyone who starts to think about
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: thirty two hundred dollars coast in Loveland with no romadunze,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: nobody is going to think about. No One is going
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: to like put their mind and focus on this and
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: come away with the idea that nope, he's a bad play.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: Everyone who thinks about it is going to realize there's
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: merit to the play, and so could end up really popular.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Gosh, I'm just gonna okay, I'll ask you while I'm
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: doing this because I want to curious in my own
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: curiosity's getting me, but I want to ask you one
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: last spot and then we'll go to our leverage lane.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: If you guys have more questions, you could throw them in.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: The last one I want to ask you about was
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: the indie side of that game. I guess one of
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: my thoughts is against not mine, But you know, just
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: another quick thought is the fact that, like even like
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: last week with the jagstack, he was just throwing to
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: everybody man like it's just he just keys in talk
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: about stack certainty. And now you get Parker Washington out
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: of the mix. It's like it's Myers. It's I don't
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: care if people want to say about BTJ, it's still
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: you gotta include him in this stock conversation. And it's
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: Brenton Strange, like, that's the three guys. You could put
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: all three of them, you could put two of them,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: you could pick one of them, whatever you want to do.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: He kind of just throws to that side. But if
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: I'm interested in Strange to go with them, or like
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: maybe it is a couple of the receivers and war
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: on the indie side. If I was to say, I'm
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: not as in on Jonathan Taylor again, which I'm not
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: out of Pittman, Pierce Warren do you got anything on
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: those three guys.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd use all three if I was going to
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones. We kind of had a like a two
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: maybe even three week period where we talked about Daniel
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Jones triples every single week. I'm less interested in it
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: now just because I think Daniel Jones is really quite
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: hurt and that it very much affects him. It's it's
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: not just that he's not gonna run. He already wasn't
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: running a ton. It's just that, like he's he's not
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: as capable in the pocket of the movement. He needs
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: to let the deep routes develop things in the nature.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: But this is still a very well designed offense. It's
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: still an offense that is capable of producing in a
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: big way. And the matchup with Jacksonville is pretty good
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: from the standpoint that Jacksonville is a bit of a
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: pass funnel and they've allowed some really big games to
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: wide receiver once and tight ends kind of throughout the season.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: As I kind of just evaluate the game environment as
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: a whole, the play volume should be quite good in
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: this game. I think the play volume favors of the
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville side to the Indianapolis side, But obviously that can
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: flip flop. What I'm most confident in is that this
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: game will have a lot of plays. Both of these
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: offenses are pretty up tempo. They like to throw the ball,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: so I think this is a very good game environment.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: On the Jacksonville side, I have conviction in saying it's
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: not that I think Brian Thomas Junior will do well
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: or will have his best game in the season, but
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: his ownership compared to the Strange ownership and the Meyers ownership,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. BTJ should
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: be more popular because he's still the one who's most
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: likely to go for thirty or thirty five DraftKings points.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: So I'd be very confident in playing that side. If
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: you want the Trevor Lawrence side of things. If you're
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: just asking me, like, if only one of these Colts
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: pass catchers does well, who's it most likely to be, Yah,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great answer for you, because I
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: think part of the beauty of the offense is that
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: it is unpredictable in the way they design these past plays,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: and it's like it's a lot of the play calls
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: and the and the scheme is designed to get somebody
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: open because you didn't think that's where they wanted to
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: go on that play, and that makes it really hard
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: to predict from just like a structural standpoint of who
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: does well against this type of defense that Jacksonville plays.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: I think Pierce, maybe Pittman, but honestly, like it's a
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: good spot for all three, which is more or less
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: why I'm taking the position of I think if I'm
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: playing anyone from that offense, it's I'm just going to say, Okay,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: Daniel Jones isn't that affected by his injury. The Indianapolis
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: offense does have a lot of success, and they lean
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: into the fact that Jacksonville's past Monel and it's finally
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: just that game where the triple stack really comes through
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: and when and again, like when if you if you're
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: using that, if you're going with the triple stack, you're
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: not saying all three of these players are going to
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: be optimal. You're saying, I think two have a good
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: chance of being optable, the other one's gonna do fine.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: And if I use all three, now I dramatically increase
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: my likelihood of having the correct two, and I'll just
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: take the third no matter what. He gives me.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: So that's why's that because sorry to Cull, That's why
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I was asking you that, because you literally walked into
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: what I was about to say, is I feel very
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: good about everything you just said for the Trevor Lawrence side.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: Like I like Lawrence, I like Myers, I like BTJ.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: I like the fact that they're all sort of in
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: the price range of Michael Wilson, et cetera. And you
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: can still put him in there if you will. I'm
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: just saying, like, and then even strange because you got
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: fifty four, fifty seven, fifty nine and thirty nine hundred.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: It's a terrible pass defense. I was all got better
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: whatever I believe, isn't Sauce out now too? So like
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: I know they got ward back and they were like,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: oh we got ward end sauce, but he's out. They
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: loved the pass the ball last week. He was whipping
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: it around to something close. I think he was close
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: last week. And so to me, that just looks like
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: a better spot. It doesn't look like there's gonna be
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: too that we have to do. It says like a
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: weather check pregame. But I don't honestly too much there
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: for that they like to pass the ball a ton
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: as it is, So try to figure out if it's
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: just like Meyers BTJ and then go with Warren. What
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: is the the tight end DVA for these two teams?
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Like it's strange and the better matchup from what you've seen,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: or is Warren in it?
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: So Indianapolis has been a great matchup for tight ends,
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: a great matchup for wide receiver two. It's a great
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: matchup for wide receiver threes, a really bad matchup for
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: wide receiver ones. Remember that predates Sauce, so this isn't
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: this isn't an instance where Sauce is out. We can
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: just throw that out the window. It's also really interesting
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: because you know, initially Tarvarius Ward might have been able
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: to explain that, but then Tarvarius Ward missed a few
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: weeks and these still were good against wide receiver ones
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: and not against the others. So, uh, you have that
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: from Indianapolis. And then Jacksonville has been a really good
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: matchup for oh I just lost, oh Jacksonville. Great matchup
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: for tight ends, great matchup for wide receiver ones. And
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: then no one else has really produced because the story
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: with the Jacksonville defense is more or less like they
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: just allow production to wherever the offense wants to throw
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: the ball.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: So yeah, pretty interesting the offense.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: Are both of these defenses present very good opportunity for
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: offensive production.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: That's what I like. And it feels a little bit
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: sneaky from that sense. We'll see if the ownership shakes
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: out that way or stands. But currently looks like it is,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: by the way, pretty decent total. Like I'm seeing like
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: a forty eight and a half in some play like
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: things like it's a bigger number than I expected. And
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: also the good news for the wide receiver one. Thing
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: on the Jag side is Harker Washington is their wide
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: receiver one. Jokingly, but he's out and so maybe you know,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: Brian Thomas is like a three. Now we can just
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: take him and call it a day, right, Is that
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: how it works?
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: I'm very joking, I very like not joking. He was
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: going to make this point that I don't know who
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: we should consider the wide receiver one. And the to
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: be clear, like, the way that we define wide receiver
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: one when we're doing all these numbers is it's how
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: the defense approaches the offense. And so for example, like
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: we have DeVante Adams as the wide receiver one, not
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: because we think that he's the better wide receiver on
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: the team or that, you know, the Rams offense doesn't
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: want to get Pooka the ball more than they want
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: to get Adams the ball. But defensively, Adams gets the
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: quote unquote wide receiver one treatment just because it's impossible
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: to defend Puoka the way you defend most wide receiver ones.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Like we saw Pooka. I forget exactly what the football
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: terminology is called, but Pooka came in motion the other
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: day and ran a route through the gap between the
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: tight end who was blocking an edge rusher and the
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: tackle who was blocking an interior pass rusher. He ran
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: route through that and then turned towards the middle of field,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: Like you can't just have a cornerback shadow with that
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: type of route. So that's how we do these wide
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: receiver one wide receiver two assignments. And I don't know
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: who Indianapolis views as who's the wide receiver one that
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: we need to take away, because they're very clearly putting
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: an emphasis on taking away the primary option in the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: opposing passing game. I think that probably Jacobe Myers at
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: this point, but I don't know, I don't know how
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: they view it. If you're just looking at production of
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: late Parker Washington, Jacobe Myers, those have been the guys
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: who are consistently, you know, converting on third downs and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: even making splash plays. Brian Thomas Junior has kind of
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: been invisible, But to me that means I want to
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: go there because I know that when Brian Thomas Junior
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: finally hits in a game, it's coming because of a
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: sixty yard touchdown in that one play year in and know, Okay,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: he's the guy I wanted in this game. And then also,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: just like from a pure correlation standpoint, because we're clearly
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: talking about, you know, potentially stacking this game in some way,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: the game as a whole gets sped up when there's
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: a sixty yard touchdown and that's most likely to be
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: Brian Thomas Junior. So I think, whether I'm on the
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville side or the Indianapolis side, if I'm on this
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: game at all, I think BTJ is the guy I'd
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: like to play through on the Jacksonville side.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say too. The one thing that'll definitely
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: be invisible is the ownership on that spot because it's
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: not going to be very much so all right, I
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: think that's good man. We had some fun doing this.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: I know some people talked about it in the chat.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: I'm actually switching my leverage lands. We said, the show
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: is good. I had one coming in the chat, got it,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna move off it. I'll use that somewhere
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: else on my slate plant up over at shiber Nation.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: People could check out the other quarterbacks and whatnot that
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: I'm on. I'm definitely not gonna go away. I give
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: it tons of thoughts today what I'm thinking. But what
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: is your leverage lane for the week? You hinted a
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: little bit earlier what it could be, But what are
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: you what are you gonna finish up with her and
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: roll with Officially.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how I'm gonna play this just yet,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: but my leverage lane is gonna be the Tampa Bay
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: offense in some way. And I mentioned earlier that the
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay offense in the Cincinnati offense are very similar
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: in my mind this week, and the main reason for
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: that is think about how expensive this Tampa Bay offense
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: has been over the last few years and how incredibly
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: productive they've been week after week after week, and now
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: they're finally healthy. Godwin looked really good last week. Baker
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: Mayfield even said something along the lines of Godwin looked
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: better this week than he did coming back like at
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: the start of the season. So remember at the start
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: of the season, he's coming back off a major injury
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: and Baker essentially saying like he ever really looked like himself.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: But now after this second injury that he had to
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: recover from, he looks like himself. He looks explosive again.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: He only ran twenty routes last week. And before you
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: start to think, okay, well, if he's going to be
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: on such a route limit, No, the problem wasn't that
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: he was on a big limit. The problem was they
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: just didn't have enough offensive play volume as a whole.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: There were only twenty nine routes run by Abuca, who
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: led the team. So I think what we could see
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: is a much more effective Tampa Bay offense than what
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: we've seen all season, and against New Orleans and who
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: you know, their offense probably isn't likely to have these
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: long drives or anything like that, so we could see
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: both of both a boost inefficiency and play volume. And
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden, this Tampa Bay offense is just
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: producing massive fantasy point performances from really underpriced guys. Fifty
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: eight hundred dollars for Baker Mayfield, seven thousand for Bucky Irving,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: A Buka is down to sixty three. This is as
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: cheap as a Buka has been in a long long time.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: In fact, cheapest he's been since Week three against the Jets.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: And we also have Chris Godwin, a fifty three hundred
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: dollars who looked quite good last week. This is a
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: very zone heavy defense that we see New Orleans. Godwin
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: has always been a great zone beater. So my leverage
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: lane specifically, I think is going to be the combination
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: of Bucky Irving plus Chris Godwin. But I'm also going
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: to look into triple stacks where I add Abuka and
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield. I'm going to look into New Orleans stacks
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: where I have, you know, these two guys as a bringback.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: But this game is environment as a whole. I really like,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: but especially the combination of Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: I think they're especially positively correlated because think about what
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: they do right. Godwin converts third downs gives Bucky a
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: better chance to score. Bucky has some explosives, but then
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: he could lead to a god him a touchdown it
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: and basically it's just like when these guys succeed, it's
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: because the offense is efficient. They're going down the field,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: and every single first down from one of the guys
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: gives the other guy a chance to do something beyond that.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: So it's it kind of leans into just my philosophy
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: that I've kind of gained throughout the season of finding
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: these offenses who elevate everybody since kind of fantasy production
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: as a whole is we're seeing fewer of these like
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: massive performances. But but yeah, I think the correlation between
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: these guys is great. I think they're both underpriced, they're
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: definitely both under owned, and just I really want to
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: bet on Tampa Bay's offense as a whole kind of
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: getting back to the level of production that we've seen
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: over the last few years from them.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up, because that was gonna
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: be a I was looking at That's as I said
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: the chat had talked about it throughout. It all kind
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: of pairs together, and that makes sense. I was looking
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: at it, and like, I guess the Olave news really
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: matters to me a little bit more, just because obviously
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: if not you can then you can go to VLA
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: and you got Johnson there, and I love all that stuff.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: And you mentioned Godwinnig, Buka, Bucky all in really good spots.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: Bucky kind of in a price range that you just
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: can't get enough ownership on him. So I've got some
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: interest regardless, I think again, not that they go together perfectly,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: but if you landed on like a Bucky with a
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: Juwan Johnson or something like that that plays regardless, Like
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: I think those are good. But to put it all together,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: that is a couple of teams that love to pass,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: a couple of teams with horrible secondaries that you can
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: pass on, and both with higher pace. Interestingly enough, the
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: total has come down quite a bit since open, so
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure again just waiting on some of the
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: news and seeing it all shakes out and the quarterbacks involved, etc.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: But I definitely like that spot quite a bit. But
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: I am gonna switch. I found some stuff here at
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: the end and we talked about it. But I love
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: me some love and I'm gonna go to Jordan Love
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: and Colston Loveland together. I'm not sure I'm gonna fill
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: out the middle yet because there's so many different ways
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: you can go from stacking partners. I want to wait
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: on the Golden News all of that, but I think
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: I'm looking to at least leverage Jacobs in this spot
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: for what that looks like, and it'll give me some
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: flexibility in the afternoon. But I'm gonna I'm gonna commit
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: to Jordan Love and Colston Loveland and use up the
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: onesie positions at least there on the skill position. So
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: I've got Jordan Love, I've got Colston Loveland. There's a
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: ton of options you can put in and around them,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: but I like that, you know, first look of the build.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: I think the last thing I'll say, it's just a
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: couple spots. You mentioned the Sincy one earlier, I mentioned
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: the Jags one. You mentioned the Tampa Bay New Orleans game,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: and then obviously the Cardinals game at home versus the Rams.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: There is some really good spots this week. You will
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: have to be comfortable being uncomfortable. But remember what we
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: said earlier. You got all the thoughts, you got all
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: the ideas. Stick to the conviction. Once you get to
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: the conviction, then make your moves from there, but don't
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: go away. If you love the Buffalo Bengals game, then
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: why you move it off it at the last second
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: only to go you know, watch them put up fifty
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: three points and be like, damn, I could have had
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: that or I was on that. Well you weren't when
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: you press submit, and that's the only time that it matters.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: So any final thoughts from you, my friend. I think
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: it's a really good and went longer, but seems like
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: people find so make sure to have that thumbs up.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: If you're watching this live, you're watching it on playback
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: as well, even the comments what you love about the show.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: If you do love the love is the theme. Love
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: is in the air, my friend. But let us know
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: we appreciate all the feedback, Alex and any final thoughts
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: before we get out of here.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, those leverage lanes kind of worked really well together, right.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: You mentioned how part of that part of the philosophy
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: that stack is that it leverages Josh Shacobs. Well, if
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: you're leveraging what is it, sixty eight hundred dollars, Josh Shacobs,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: go right to the Bucky Irving pivot at seven thousand dollars.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: It works really really well together and you can definitely
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: fit that sort of thing. So Yeah's that's definitely a
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: build that I'm going to explore quite a bit.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: Loverage lane. Maybe we got there. We made it all
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: work and sometimes the things just you know, I told
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: you that marketing angle. You got the blick scored over there.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: We got a leverage lane. Like Alex said, you guys
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: can go check out his discord. Check him out on X.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: Is it at Alex blickell one. It is correct, Alex
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: Blickell one on X go check out the blix cord.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: Definitely use the code Turkey day if you're doing so,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: like you say, get the discount there. You can check
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: us out ship Nation I mentioned off the top. You
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: go to shipnation dot com. You can get the code
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: ship nineteen you see on the screen if you want
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: to just try out five days for nineteen dollars, if
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: you want to get any of our packages to round
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: up the rest of the NFL season. These still exist
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: with or without sabersim and get you into ship at games.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: But this is a fun one.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: Guys.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: We appreciate you as always that's gonna do it for
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: this week on Leverage Lane for Alex, for myself totagging
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: Tamba led shipping