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Week 1 LOCKS: Who to bet week 1 of the College Football Season · Talking Dawgs

• Daniel: Week one locks, Clint. There's no better time of year. There's no better Clint: Mm. Mm mm. No, there's not. Daniel: week to bet on college football. Clint: Yeah, it's get in, get in early on these lines because there's a lot of hype surrounding a lot of teams that we might know more than the average bear does. Daniel: We we like to clean up early. As the season goes on, the margins get a lot thinner in terms of betting. Clint: R so true. So true. Daniel: But you do your work early, you get in here early, because some of these lines, Clint, it's all preseason hype. It's just a lotta it's a lot of hot air being puffed up. and so there's a lot of there's a lot of margin if you get in and you make the right moves. Early, we're happy to have you here. Make sure you're subscribed. Clinton and I'll be here every single week giving out locks, picks for games all across college football. We typically core cover Georgia. Of course, we'll always give our pick for the Georgia game, but talking about games all across the landscape of college football. And as I mentioned, week one, no better time. If you are a Georgia fan, make sure you subscribe to the free newsletter. There's a link in the description. And if you're a fan of college football, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Clint and I would greatly appreciate it as we seek to get this station off the ground, the show off the ground. Clint, let's jump in to Saturday. Georgia plays Tennessee State. There's there's not a lot going on here in terms of drama. The line is it's 48 and a half. It's Georgia minus Clint: Yep. Daniel: 48 and a half. Do you have a lock in this game? Clint: no, I don't have a luck in this game, Daniel. Are you that degenerate where you do? Okay, here we go. Here we go. Daniel: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I gotta lock in this game. Clint, first of all, I could lock up Tennessee State plus forty eight and a half. Clint: You c I d I mean Daniel: I could do that. I actually feel better about a different play. Clint: Tell Daniel: It's along the same lines, though. I'm taking Georgia team total under 51 and a half. Georgia Clint: Okay. Daniel: team total under 51 and a half. I do not think Georgia is gonna hang a 50 piece on Tennessee State. I think the clock's gonna be moving. I think there's going to be a lot of backups in the game. So yeah, give me the Georgia team total. I think backups in the game late could lead to some first downs, some some longer drives for Tennessee State, which which is going to bleed even more of the clock. I do think Georgia's going to have some explosives. I think they're going to score early. I think they're going to score often. I think this game's going to be something in the neighborhood of like forty-seven to nothing. Right? Like forty-two to three. Clint: Sure. Yeah. Daniel: I think are all realistic expectations for this game. I don't think Georgia's gonna get fifty. I like Georgia under fifty-one and a half. Before I let you go, Clint. Can I squeeze in a two for one here? Cause I have another Georgia Clint: Always squeezing the two for one. Daniel: related lock, but it has nothing to do with Tennessee State. This is the last Clint: Interesting. Then yes, by all means. Daniel: week you'll be able to get it in. Clint: I've been to the window four times with this. Daniel: Okay. The Georgia season win total isn't over. You'll just you'll place that bet. Okay? Clint: You place it. Daniel: Right now, before anyone plays any games Clint: We got a future game. Daniel: Georgia, Arkansas, Clint: Yeah. Daniel: the line is sixteen and a half, Clint. See, I knew I would be giving you information you didn't currently have because you may not Clint: Keep talking. I'm sorry. Keep I nope. Keep talking. Daniel: have gone as deep into the weeds of FanDuel as I have been. But sixteen and a half is a number you can get right now at minus one ten. Georgia to beat Arkansas by at least 17 points, friends. You're gonna go ahead and take that to the bank. By the time they play that game, that line's gonna be twenty-three. Clint: Easily. Daniel: Easily. You're not even going to be able to get three touchdowns and you can get under 17 Clint: No you won't. Daniel: right now. So those are my two Georgia-related locks. Alright, Clint. Forget about that. People don't care about the Georgia Tennessee State game. People trying to make money, Clint. Clint: They don't. Daniel: Where do you want to go first? What's your favorite game? Clint: You well, I I wanna start with a very interesting game. You teased it last time. Let's bring it full forward because you said the Mendoza era in at at in the Georgia Tech is Daniel: On the flats. Clint: is not going to go well. Is that the way, is that voice better? Is the is the old Cockney British better? You should be Daniel: Listen, we're getting a lot of mixed reviews on the voice. There are people that are claiming, by the way, we've this multiple people. If you're the if you Clint: Okay, good. Daniel: if you hear me say this and you think, I'm the one that said that, you are, but there's also other people who have who have said this. They have said that the newsletter, Clint, that they are going to read your section of the newsletter in the voice out loud exclusively. That that's the way they're going to consume the written content, assuming that it's coming from the voice. This has taken on a Seinfeld life of its own, this voice, and I could not be more more here for it. Alright, let's talk about Deion Sanders against Brent Key, the coaching mismatch Clint: Here we Daniel: of our lifetime. We are big Brent Key fans. And Deion Sanders is a circus show. He's a Clint: Yeah. We are. We think he's a very mascot. He's a mascot. Daniel: mascot. Ralphie is a better mascot, which is our which is odd because Clint: Which is odd. Daniel: He's the second best mascot at his school, the second best living mascot at his school. Clint: Correct. Daniel: To be fair, Ralphie's the second best living mascot that exists. Clint: In f in college football. Daniel: Correct. yeah, let's talk about Colorado, Georgia Tech. Do you have a lock in this game? Or you Clint: I have a lock in this game. Daniel: all right, let's hear it. Maybe you can sway me. Clint: Fifty fifty and a half points is far too many daggum points in this game. Daniel: I was hoping you were gonna say too many. Good lord, you made me nervous for a second. Clint: I is is Mendoza like his brother b I maybe I don't know. I have no clue. Is Georgia Tech going to get better at offense with a new quarterback, a new offensive play caller, change over a lot of different places? I I don't think they will. Colorado's not a good squad, but that goes in the favor of sloppy offense. Is the defense gonna be good enough these two offenses are gonna struggle? To push the ball downfield. Time is going to be ticking off the clock. It's not going to be explosive plays. And if it is, it's going to kind of be just happenstance that it falls into. Fifteen and a half points is far too many daggum points. Give me the under on this all day long. You do you want do you want to take Colorado? Do you want to take Colorado? Daniel: If if if it's over a touchdown, I like Colorado. Right now you you can't get it over a touchdown. But I'll be watching this number as it moves. If it gets to seven, I'll be very tempted. If it's it's if it hits seven and a half, I will be buying. I will be in on Colorado. I know it's on the road. I don't like that. Let me just ask you a simple question, Clint. Clint: I like some. Daniel: If Fernando Mendoza If his if if the new Mendoza was like his brother. Clint: There it is. Mm-hmm. Daniel: Do you think Kurt Signetti would have let him walk? These are the questions you have to ask yourself. Brent Key and Kurt Signetti are not competing head to head for players. Georgia Clint: Nope. Daniel: Tech and Indiana do not have the same payrolls. Clint: Nope. Daniel: Do you think Kurt Signetti would have let him walk if he was any good? So so you do know if he's good. You do see, you said you didn't know, but you kinda do know. Now Clint: People people always say the thing it's like, well he's unproven. Daniel: Is he good enough for Georgia Tech? Maybe. But I just Clint: See, okay. Daniel: think Georgia Tech just lost the best quarterback Georgia Tech has had in a long dang time. A long dang time. Since like Clint: Yeah. Yeah. I mean back when Daniel: nineteen ninety. The the Hamilton kit. They that's that's Clint: Neck rolls were used exclusively by everybody. Daniel: That might be the last quarterback that was as good as Aynes King. So yeah, I if it gets over a touchdown I like Colorado. I got a lot of just sick plays this week. I'm taking Clint: Give Give Daniel: I'm taking a lot of team totals. USC Fresno State, Clint. Clint: Great. What do you want? Daniel: I want USC team total over thirty seven and a half points. Here's here's some principles. I like teams that played in week zero. I think it's a huge advantage. I think the offense has gotten some things out. Did USC struggle? Yes. They did. They did struggle. I think the offense has had a chance to work some things out. I think they will be better and will continue to progress. Do I trust the USC defense led by Gary Patterson? No, I do not. That's why I'm Clint: no, Gary. no. Daniel: not laying this number against Fresno State. Which, by the way, has come way down. It's come Clint: Twenty twenty six and a half? Yes. Daniel: way down. Clint: Yep. Daniel: But I'm still not laying it with US Cause I don't trust to get stops. But they don't Clint: sorry. I got a lock in this game. Give me Fresno plus twenty six and a half in this game. The clock is gonna be ticking. Fresno State is gonna want to line up and run the ball all day long on USC. Give me Fresno State plus the points. Yes and thank you. And I'll I will I will sleep soundly. Daniel: Yeah. I don't I don't trust USC to cover this number, but I do think they're gonna win this game like forty two to twenty one. Clint: That that is almost a d yes. Yes. Easily. We're happy. Happy. Daniel: And we both cash easily in that scenario. So yeah, we both have locks in the game. I think they're they're they're s slightly aligned. All right, where do you want to go next? Clint: I I wanna go to the game that I I gave as a hint on another publication somewhere else. Louisville Old Miss. Six and a half po it's Daniel: Yeah. I want to bet this game so bad. I will be betting this game. First of all, it's a Monday night game. Everyone in America will be betting this game. Clint: Yeah, that's why I want the money is in and will continue to come in. I don't think the line's moving that much. Six and a half. I mean, people you want to say that under that touchdown threshold that you were given earlier, Louisville and and Ole Miss are gonna score points in this game. Louisville lost Smothers last couple, but I they are they are very, very, very good still offensively. they're gonna keep this game close and It's uncomfortable for Old Miss fan to say that. If you are sky high confident, Old Miss fan, if you're not thinking to yourself, week one in a new era against an up and coming team that wants to put their foot on your on your neck and go for the for the kill because they get a lot of notoriety because you got acclaim last year and now that Lane Kiffin's stealing all your thunder. Louisville, I'm taking the points with Louisville. They're the underdog in this game. I think they cover no problem in this. Daniel: Yeah, I I wouldn't hate a little Louisville money line sprinkle, but I am gonna t I Clint: Sprinkle that on a parlay somewhere, get some juice. Daniel: am gonna take Louisville and the points as well. I might it's really close to seven right now. I might just wait for it to touch seven. Because it's really close. The Clint: I that's why I said I don't think the money line will change because I think money's already in. But if it's going to change, I think it's going to go in favor of that seven. And if it does, hammer, hammer, hammer. Daniel: Yeah. I'm gonna I'm gonna lay Clint a way too small of a number with Florida game one with a new coach against FAU. It's numbers twenty six and a half against FAU. Clint: This is ridiculous. This is ridiculous. Daniel: Now I know FAU's not like Tennessee State, and Florida's not Georgia. Clint: They're not world beaters. Sure. Daniel: But first game in the swamp with a new coach Night game. New coach got everything to prove. I mean, what was Billy Napier's MO, Clint? It was being the most boring offensive coach in the history of college football. Clint: Yep. Daniel: Yep. That's not going to be Florida anymore. Clint: Nope, those days are done. Daniel: You're gonna see some innovation on offense. You're gonna see Florida fans are finally gonna see something that they can be like, it's not gonna be Steve Spurrier out there. But they're finally gonna see something and be like, all right, that's real offense. Like we're finally watching something real. Twenty six and a half points is not enough daggum points, Clint. Clint: Nope. I'm also hammering this. Give me Florida to cover easily. I mean, this should not be a sweat come into the third quarter. Daniel: Yeah. Alright, where are you going next? Clint: We should be I you don't have to believe me, and I'm fine if you don't. Daniel: Okay. Clint: The Cal Golden Bears are going to make noise this year. Daniel: You y Clint's literally praying for this result. Clint: JK S. Daniel: This is a wish, not a bet. This is man trust trust me, I know things that you don't know, listener. This is a wish. This is his only hope Clint: JKS. Daniel: in week one. Clint: JKS is a monster at quarterback. Cal is vastly improved. He's v I Daniel: He's a good player. A good player. Clint: mean, he when he's going to get national media attention. I I think there's a good chance he's in New York for the Heisman. Daniel: He might be the best quarterback in the ACC. Forget about Darien Mensah. Like Clint: Ye Yep. They are at home against a rival catching points, one and a half. I'd take the money line on I will sprinkle this money line, but give me the one and a half all day long, just in case it is a a one score game. Plus one and a half for the cal give me cal hammering it all day. Daniel: There's just so much optimism around UCLA right now. I mean, it's just so much like the new coach, new program. He brings in all of his players, James Madison. Clint: Sure, sure. Sure. Daniel: You James Madison held their own against Oregon last year. People say whatever they Clint: They did. Daniel: want. They're like, Go James Madison, they're not gonna be able to compete in the first of all, it's Cal. So I know their quarterback's good, but let's pump the brakes a little bit. It's Cal. Okay. These aren't these are the Stanford caliber athletes that we watched last week. That's the kind of athlete. Clint: I I I tell you this definitively. Daniel: We're dealing with Clint: It's not Daniel. That's how bad Stanford is. Okay. Daniel: Okay. It's Cal, first of all. And James Madison held their own against Oregon. They covered in that game. In the playoff Clint: They didn't They didn't? Daniel: game against Oregon, where people thought they were going to get absolutely, you know, waxed. They did get beat soundly, but they covered in that game. I I like UCLA in this game. I don't know that I'm gonna be betting it, but I do like UCLA. I have some I have some interesting games. These are not I don't know if I'll be betting them, but these are I'm interested. Clint: Fire off. Fire off. Daniel: This is not the one it's not a marquee game. Okay, we'll get to some marquee games later. What are your thoughts about UNLV, Hawaii, Clint? Two teams we saw last week. Hawaii at home now on the island. Catching three and a half against Dan Mullen and UNLV. Do we see a bounce back from Jackson Arnold? Do we see a Hawaii team that really could have beaten Stanford last week at the farm? Clint: Should have. Daniel: Should have. Do we see them rebound or do we see a hangover from that? There's a lot of me that wants to To take the road favorite, laying an unfavorable number just because of the set of circumstances. I feel like UNLV, for whatever reason, is primed for a bounce back after losing to Memphis, and Hawaii is primed for a letdown after losing to Stanford. Clint: This game is wild. If there was anything closer, three and a half, three in the hook is weird to me. This number stinks. But my my side would be UNLV on this one. I think they bounced back. I think Jansa Yeah, I I would go UNLV because Daniel: betting it right now. I bet it I'm betting it right now. Clint: Dan Mullen did show something. Jackson Arnold did show some things early on in that game. they looked Yep. Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep. Daniel: Jackson Arsen's gonna be good for UNLV this year. He's gonna be good. Dan Mullins a full stop better coach than Hugh Freeze. Can we agree on that? Clint: Old Old Miss will be irrelevant in two years. I I s I'm saying true things, you're saying true things. Great. Okay. Daniel: We're all saying true things. Okay. Is there a world in which you would lay fifty one and a half with BYU? How's I'm just pointing out that there's a line on this board where BYU is favored by fifty one and a half points. Clint: I will never lay a fifty burger in my life. Daniel: That's not happening. Alright, Death Valley. Clipson LSU. The Clint: Yep. Yep. Daniel: line's ten and a half. Clint: That's lot of points. That's a lot That's a lot of points, y'all. Daniel: I wanna bet Clemson. I told you this last week. I wanna bet Clemson in this game. Talk me out of it. I'm literally asking you to talk me out of it so that I don't Clint: Okay. Daniel: waste my money on Dabo Sweeney. Clint: Okay, here we go. A, it's Dabo Sweeney. B, it's a quarterback that we have no understanding of whatsoever and hasn't been good enough to elevate Clemson in years. C, it's a roster that's been depleted in the recruiting and transfer portal that hasn't been up to snuff in the college football landscape. D, Lane Kiffin has some talent on his roster. Just straight up Daniel: A lot of talent. Clint: a lot of talent on that roster, and he does offense very well. Well, he doesn't have to do defense that well. Other people are taking care of that, and it's LSU. Can I just remind you, you wake up and you have two all-American corners at LSU? It's kind of just part and parcel of what happens when you're down there on the bayou. Okay. I I 10 and a half is a lot of points in a home in an opener Daniel: It's a lot of points. Clint: for a new coach and a new team with all the turmoil and all the crap that's been going on. I don't, if this was anybody else. Legitimately, if this was any other team besides Lane Kiffen, I would be betting Clemson. But just based on principles of betting. But I can't because that's a very talented roster. It's offensive minded. I think the offense is going to be ahead of the defense. And I don't trust Clemson on offense to actually keep up with Sam Levitt. And I don't think Sam Levitt's going to have longevity, but I do think LSU starts the season something like six, seven, and Probably. And and it starts now. And I think it starts off. Lane Kivan has to come out hot, Daniel. Like he has to come out. In a fiery blaze of glory or he's going Daniel: Yeah. This might be his last game as a coach in the SEC. Clint: Which again You you wanted this, LSU fan. Daniel: Let's not. Let's not. do you have any more locks? Clint: I'm really, really wanting to bet Notre Dame against Wisconsin and lay that huge point. Daniel: I was gonna ask you about that game. It's less than three touchdowns. Notre Dame's the best team that's ever been assembled in the history of college football. I've listened to Clint: Twenty and Daniel: anyone speak in the offseason and that's what they've told me. Literally anyone. Clint: Luke f anybody. CJ Carr is the greatest quarterback to have ever played the position. Daniel: Correct. Clint: Luke Rackney, please go away. This is the best one who's ever. Daniel: Yeah. Well they lost two running backs in the first round of the draft and that was really all they did last year. But that doesn't matter for some reason? Clint: twenty and a half points. Luke Fickle should have stayed in Cincinnati. Just I feel bad for you. Daniel: Luke Fickle will not make it to Halloween. No, sir. Luke Fickle will Clint: No. They're going to Daniel: be taking his kids trick-or-treating in a different city than Madison. Clint: They will be jumping around and hoisting him out of the stadium as they do. So I twenty and a half I mean, Wisconsin's bad. I think Luke Fickle is Notre Dame's going to be fine in this game. Twenty and a half, a lot of points. If I had a lean in this game, it'd be Notre Dame. Daniel: Yeah. I again it's a Sunday game, I'll bet it. I'm gonna be betting it. There's nothing else on TV, Clint. I will be betting it. Yeah. Clint: I I will be betting I will be betting Notre Dame in this game. You're a hundred percent right. Daniel: Auburn Baylor. Clint, do you have thoughts on Auburn Baylor? Clint: W yes. The thought is how many whiskies can I pour myself instead of watching that game? Daniel: Many, you're not interested in of an an all SEC matchup of former Florida quarterback going up against the Auburn Tigers. It there's some intrigue in this game. I can't figure out how Auburn's favored by seven and a half against anybody. Clint: How? Against anybody. Daniel: But it makes me too scared to bet Clint: Talk about a hype machine. Daniel: it. Clint: No, I'm terrified to bet it. If my lean on that's Baylor all day long. Daniel: Yeah. that's really all I have. Anything else from you? You got anything? Clint: That's all have. No, no, those are the big ones that I had. The LSU intrigue, I will be probably betting Clemson when it comes time, especially if that number goes higher. Daniel: Yeah. You gonna lay twenty four and a half on Friday night with Miami on the road at Stanford? You gonna go to that one too? Clint: If it wasn't on the road, if it wasn't across and and it just yeah, I would. I think Miami's gonna be fine. Stanford is bad. But guys. Real bad. I'm Daniel: Real bad. Davis Warren, I'm not sure if I'm breaking any news here. He's not good. He Clint: He Daniel: was never good. Clint: he had to emergency sidearm every throw that he had. Not because it was Daniel: He's never been good. Clint: like a Mahomes ad lib, let me do it. It's because Daniel: No. Clint: he doesn't know any other thing besides erratic emergency throws. Daniel: He's bad. He's really, really bad. The Miami offensive and defensive lines might I mean, they're going Clint: Ha ha ha. Daniel: to embarrass Stanford. Stanford couldn't get a push against Hawaii. Clint: The the difference in size. Miami. I d Daniel, I am not look. I was at one point in my life a much larger individual. Okay. Okay. Daniel: Sure. My man's made some some gains in the losses column. Clint: I've I've I've done the right thing, okay? I outweigh every single Hawaii defensive lineman that was on that Daniel: Yeah. Clint: team. Daniel: They don't make the Samoans like they used to. At least they're not going to Hawaii. You know where they're going? They're going to Miami. They're going to BYU. That's why they're favored by fifty one and a half. Clint: They're not going to Hawaii. Utah. They're going to Utah, Miami, and Michigan. Yes. Yes. and Miami was able to absolutely obliterate Stanford's offensive line. Miami is going to embarrass them. I I will be getting in on this game. It's not a lock right now, but I will be betting this. I will be going the window and taking Miami and the points before kickoff. Daniel: Make sure you're subscribed all season for all of our locks. Each and every week we'll be here with you. He's Clan. I'm Daniel. We'll see you guys next time. Clint: See ya.