Latest / Best of Business / Scott Shellady: US markets analyst unpacks why Trump may have paused tariffs

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Scott Shellady: US markets analyst unpacks why Trump may have paused tariffs · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks EDB follow
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  Speaker 2: Bryan Bridge nine after four News Talks, heb so investors,
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  Speaker 2: you'd be forgiven for complaining about whiplash after this morning's
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  Speaker 2: huge U tune from Donald Trump. Markets around the world
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  Speaker 2: made huge jumps this after Trump announced a ninety day
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  Speaker 2: freeze for all announced tariffs except for China.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit
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  Speaker 3: out of line.
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  Speaker 1: They were getting yippie. You know, they're getting a little
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  Speaker 1: bit yippy a little bit.
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  Speaker 2: Afrid Scott Shelby is a US market analyst with me now, Hi, Scott.
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  Speaker 4: Thanks for having me on. Looking forward to it. As
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  Speaker 4: you can imagine, pretty busy day today.
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  Speaker 3: Tell me what you think forced Trump's hand.
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  Speaker 4: Well, I think I think the Treasury Secretary is kind
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  Speaker 4: of taken the lead role on this peasant. I don't
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  Speaker 4: know if you know Scott Passant, but he used to
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  Speaker 4: work with George Soros and Stanley Druggon Miller with the
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  Speaker 4: quantum fund guys. He's very, very smart. He's a fantastic
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  Speaker 4: markets guy. And when he saw that tenyor yields Fike
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  Speaker 4: this morning, like a lot of us. You know, it
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  Speaker 4: was only a couple three days ago, but that tenyor
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  Speaker 4: yield here was around three eighty five and then spiked
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  Speaker 4: close to well. I think the hide today was four
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  Speaker 4: fifty one. And when he saw that, I think then
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  Speaker 4: when he'd have yields spiking at the same time a
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  Speaker 4: lot of volatility and equities, and a lot of volatility
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  Speaker 4: to the downside of equities, he run the risk of
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  Speaker 4: breaking something. So I think that there was a little
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  Speaker 4: bit of pressure there. A couple of days ago Best
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  Speaker 4: Scott beston our Tragery Secretary flew down to mar Lago
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  Speaker 4: from Washington and rode back in air force onond with Trump.
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  Speaker 4: I think he had his ear for that one, and
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  Speaker 4: so I think there were some there were some genuine
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  Speaker 4: moves on Trump's behalf that I think we're planned. I
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  Speaker 4: think it's fair to say that when he put the
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  Speaker 4: ten percent of Ofstan but he had much higher rates
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  Speaker 4: on some other countries, to have them stand in line
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  Speaker 4: to try to do a deal with them while he
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  Speaker 4: was still tariffing them is not fair. So I think
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  Speaker 4: that that ninety day pauses because of the amount of
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  Speaker 4: deals that he is going to have to be cutting
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  Speaker 4: in the next ninety days from you know, the reports
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  Speaker 4: are seventy five countries want to want to cut a
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  Speaker 4: deal with them in some way, so it's going to
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  Speaker 4: be hard to get to all those people in a
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  Speaker 4: short period of time. So they wouldn't be hurt with
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  Speaker 4: the tariff. So I think the ninety day pauses so
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  Speaker 4: that he can get through the backlog of countries at
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  Speaker 4: least they say that they want to do a deal.
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  Speaker 4: And I also think that he was pretty masterful in
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  Speaker 4: putting China in a corner, so all those things kind
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  Speaker 4: of played into it. You don't see a lot of
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  Speaker 4: Peter Navarro, you don't see a lot of Howard lat
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  Speaker 4: next to the Commerce Secretary. It's all Scott past And
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  Speaker 4: I think he's doing a pretty good job with the president,
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  Speaker 4: and over the last forty eight hours his stock for sure.
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  Speaker 2: Obviously the yields go up when the price goes down.
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  Speaker 2: Normally when there's chaos in the markets, people fled to
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  Speaker 2: the treasuries, right to the bonds. There's talk that because
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  Speaker 2: China owns about a third of US government bonds, that
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  Speaker 2: they weren't buying and that that might have had some
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  Speaker 2: effect in terms of forcing Trump's hand.
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  Speaker 3: Do you see that buy that.
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  Speaker 4: There was a lot of rumors going around. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: you know, hedge fund caught the wrong way, unwinding of
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  Speaker 4: the carry trade, China trying to punish Trump. Whether they're
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  Speaker 4: selling end or not buying it could have been a
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  Speaker 4: number of things. But I also think that the yield
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  Speaker 4: came in so quickly because there were so many people
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  Speaker 4: rushing to save havens that that's how the yield got
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  Speaker 4: to three eighty five in the first place. So we
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  Speaker 4: only kind of went back to where we were trading
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  Speaker 4: in between, you say, four fifteen and four thirty five,
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  Speaker 4: although the high obviously it was four fifty. But I
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  Speaker 4: think that bomb market is bigger than the stock market much.
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  Speaker 4: It's so it's gonna be hard to manipulate it at all.
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  Speaker 4: I mean maybe maybe maybe in the short term a
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  Speaker 4: little bit, but again, it's bigger than the stock market,
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  Speaker 4: So the bond market's gonna be the bond market, regardless
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  Speaker 4: of what people want to ascribe to it. I just
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  Speaker 4: don't think that there was anything that farius going on there.
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  Speaker 4: I just think it was a culmination.
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  Speaker 2: Of things Trump posted on truth Social This is a
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  Speaker 2: great time to buy? Is that borderline inside of triding?
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  Speaker 4: You know what? They've been saying that for days though,
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  Speaker 4: that's all you know that take it, look at it
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  Speaker 4: in the snapshot of time of today. You might be
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  Speaker 4: able to come up with something like that. No, they've
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  Speaker 4: been saying that for days. I mean there's a lot
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  Speaker 4: of folks that have been on the tape since last
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  Speaker 4: Thursday saying this is an amazing once for a lifetime opportunity.
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  Speaker 4: So you could you know, it just so happens that
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  Speaker 4: it was it was today that the market rally, and
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  Speaker 4: it looks like he might have known something but agains.
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  Speaker 4: They've been saying that every day.
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  Speaker 3: What do you think happens from here?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, ninety days to cut deals with seventy five
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  Speaker 2: countries sounds quite ambitious. So does he just keep extending
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  Speaker 2: this stay?
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  Speaker 4: I think it depends on how those deals go. But
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  Speaker 4: I think that, you know, as the news of these
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  Speaker 4: settlements come out, you'll get more and more comfortable with
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  Speaker 4: the market. I mean, we're not. I don't think we're
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  Speaker 4: gonna have to go back to what we just went
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  Speaker 4: through in ninety days time. If that's what you're getting at,
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  Speaker 4: and at the same time, it's going to be interesting
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  Speaker 4: to see how China handles the position that they put
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  Speaker 4: themselves into. So you know, he's Trump generally has some
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  Speaker 4: decent support. I think there was a risk there that
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  Speaker 4: it went on. As long as people were worried it
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  Speaker 4: was going to go on, he was going to start
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  Speaker 4: to lose his own coalition, his own Republican support. That
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  Speaker 4: might have been happening. There was talks of some of
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  Speaker 4: some cracks in that coalition over the last few days
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  Speaker 4: in the weekend, but I think I think the way
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  Speaker 4: things sit today that you know, if it was all
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  Speaker 4: planned and this is what he wanted, he did a
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  Speaker 4: pretty good job. And I think and I think that
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  Speaker 4: it's also got to be given a little bit of
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  Speaker 4: credit to Scott Best and are actually a lot of
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  Speaker 4: cres credit to Scott Westland. I think he was also
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  Speaker 4: a big part of this. And I think that tenure yield,
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  Speaker 4: combined with the stock market, combined with the seventy five countries,
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  Speaker 4: combined with a lot of the other things that have
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  Speaker 4: been playing into everything over the last four or five days,
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  Speaker 4: this was a pretty good outcome.
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  Speaker 3: All right.
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  Speaker 2: Scott will ave it there, Thanks very much for that analysis.
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  Speaker 2: That's US market analyst Scott Shelby.
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