Latest / Elon Musk Thinking / Elon Musks BRUTALLY Honest Interview!
Transcript
- 0:00Why does some Facebook do this? I know that Zuckerberg has said, and
- 0:03I take him at face value that he well I do. I do actually
- 0:07in this way that he is a kind of old fashioned liberal who doesn't like
- 0:11to censor. He has but he you know, like, why wouldn't a
- 0:15company like that take the stand that you have taken, which pretty rooted in
- 0:20American traditional political custom, you know, for free speech. Uh, this
- 0:27is the kind of thing that tends to accelerate, so that so then you
- 0:31can get negative equity and the home market as well. This is a dire
- 0:36situation and so that so essentially what's happening is that training the AI to lie.
- 0:43Yes, so, all of a sudden, AI is everywhere people who
- 0:45aren't quite sure what it was or playing with it on their phones. Is
- 0:48that good or bad? Artificial intamination? Yeah, station where that's what they
- 0:54call it in the egge industry. I'm talking about a more digital form yes,
- 1:03Um so yeah, So I've been thinking about a AI for a long
- 1:08time, since I was in college. Really. Um, it's one of
- 1:12the things that the sort of four or five things I thought would really affect
- 1:15the future dramatically. So um, and uh, it is quite. It
- 1:26is fundamentally profound in that the the smartest creatures as far as you know,
- 1:32on this earth, our humans, is defining characteristic. Yes, we obviously
- 1:38weaker than say, chimpanzees, less agile um, but real smarter. So,
- 1:46now what happens when something vastly smarter than the smartest person comes along in
- 1:53silicon form? It's very difficult to predict what will happen in that circumstance.
- 1:57Um. It's called the singularity. It's a singularity like a black hole,
- 2:05because you don't know what happens after that. It's hard to predict. UM.
- 2:14So I think we should be cautious with aim, and we should I
- 2:20think there should be some government oversight because it affects. It's a data to
- 2:25the public. And so when you when you have things that are a danger
- 2:29to the public, you know, like let's say, um so food,
- 2:34food and drugs. That's why we have the Food and Drug Administration and the
- 2:38Federal Aviation Administration, the FCC. We have we have these agencies to oversee
- 2:46things that affect the public where they could be a public arm And you don't
- 2:52want companies cuting corners on safety um and then having people suffer as a result.
- 3:00So that's why I've actually for a long time been a strong advocate of
- 3:06AI regulation. So that I think regulation is uh, you know, it's
- 3:13not fun to be regulated. It's it's sort of somewhat of a sort adduous
- 3:17to be regulated. I have a lot of experience with regular regulated industries because
- 3:23obviously automotive is highly regulated. You can fill this room with all the regulations
- 3:28that are acquired for a production car just in the United States, and then
- 3:31there's a whole different set of regulations in Europe and China and the rest of
- 3:36the world. So very familiar with being overseen by a lot of regulators.
- 3:42And the same thing is true with rockets. You can't just willingly shoot rockets
- 3:46off, not big ones anyway, because the FA oversees that um and then
- 3:53even to get a launch license, you there are probably half a dozen or
- 3:57more federal agencies that need to approve it, plus state agencies. So it's
- 4:02I've been through so many regulatory situations it's insane, and yep. Sometimes I
- 4:09people think I'm some sort of like regulatory maverick that sort of defies regulators on
- 4:15a regular basis, But this is actually not the case. So in you
- 4:20know, once in a blue moon, rarely I will disagree with regulators,
- 4:25but the vast majority of the time my companies agree with regulations and comply as
- 4:30anyway. So I think I think we should take this seriously and we should
- 4:34have a regulatory agency. I think it needs to start with a group that
- 4:42initially seeks insight into AI, then solicits opinion from industry, and then has
- 4:49proposed rulemaking and then those rules you know, will probably hopefully grudgingly be accepted
- 4:57by the major players in AI, and I think we'll have a better chance
- 5:05of advanced AI being beneficial to humanity in that circumstance. But all regulations start
- 5:13with a perceived danger and planes fall out of the sky or food causes bot
- 5:16Yes, I don't think the average person playing with AI on his iPhone perceives
- 5:20any danger. Can you just roughly explain what you think the dangers might be?
- 5:26Yeah, So the danger really AI is perhaps more dangerous than say,
- 5:38mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance, or or bad car production, in the
- 5:44sense that it is it has the potential how a small one make regard that
- 5:48probability, but it is non trivial. It has the potential of civilizational destruction.
- 5:56You know, there's movie is like to Dominator, but it wouldn't quite
- 6:00happen like Terminator, because the intelligence would be in the data centers, right,
- 6:05the robots just the end of factor. Um. But I think perhaps
- 6:10what you may be alluding to here is that regulations are really only put into
- 6:15effect after something terrible has happened. That's correct. And if if that's the
- 6:21case for AI, and we only put in regulations after something terrible has happened,
- 6:25it may be too late to actually put the regulations in place. The
- 6:28AI may be in control at that point. You think that's real? It
- 6:32is it is conceivable that AI could take control and reach a point where you
- 6:36couldn't turn it off, and it would be making making the decisions for people.
- 6:41Yeah, absolutely, absolutely no, it's that's that's definitely the where things
- 6:46are headed for sure. I mean that the things I could like say chat
- 6:53Ebt, which is based on JP Pour from open Ai, which is the
- 6:57company that I played at critical role in creating unfortunately back when it was a
- 7:02nonprofit. Yes, um, I mean the reason Opening Eye exists at all
- 7:11is that, um, Larry Page and I used to be close friends,
- 7:15and I would stay at his house in Paul Alto and I would talk to
- 7:17him late to the night about AI safety. And at least my perception was
- 7:23that Larry was not taking AI safety seriously enough. Um. And what did
- 7:30he say about it? He really seemed to be um on once sort of
- 7:38digital superintelligence, basically digital god, if you will as soon as possible,
- 7:44he wanted that, yes, um. And he's made many public statements over
- 7:49the years that the whole goal of Google is what's called AGI artificial general intelligence
- 7:57or official super intelligence. UM and um. You know, and I agree
- 8:01with him that there's great potential for good um. But there's also potential for
- 8:05bad. And so if you've got some um, radical new technology, you
- 8:11want to try to take the set of actions that maximize probably it will do
- 8:15good and minimize probably it will do bad things. Yes, it can't just
- 8:18be healthful leather to just go, you know, barreling forward and you know,
- 8:24hope for the best. Um. And then at one point h I
- 8:28said, well what about you know, we're gonna make sure humanity's okay here
- 8:31um and and and uh and then he called me a specist. Did he
- 8:41did he use that term? Yes, And there were witnesses that I wasn't
- 8:45the only one there when you called me a specist. And so I was
- 8:48like, okay, that's it. I've yes, I'm a specioust Okay,
- 8:52you got me, what do you Yeah, I'm fully a specioust um busted
- 9:01um so um that was the last drow um. At the time, Google
- 9:09had acquired deep Mind, and so Google and deep Mind together had about three
- 9:13quarters of all the AI talent in the world. They obviously had a transamount
- 9:16of money and more computers than anyone else. So I'm like, okay,
- 9:20we're about unipolar world here where there's just one one company that has closed to
- 9:26monopoly on AI talent and and computers like scaled computing, and the person who's
- 9:37in charge doesn't seem to care about safety. This is not good. So
- 9:41so then I thought, okay, what's the what's what's the furthest thing from
- 9:46Google would be like a nonprofit that is fully open because Googgle was closed for
- 9:50profit. So that's why the opening opening eye refers to open source, uh,
- 9:56you know, transparency, so people know what's going on, yes,
- 10:00um, and and that we don't want to have like a I mean,
- 10:05well, I'm normally in favor of for profit. We don't want this to
- 10:07be a sort of profit maximizing demon from hell, right that just never stops.
- 10:13Right, So um, that's how opening would see want specious incentives here
- 10:20incentives? Yes, I think we want we want to pro human yeah,
- 10:24like the future good for the humans. Yes, yes, because we're humans
- 10:28and also the other creatures on Earth too. But it's it's a you know,
- 10:33we've gotta I think, you know, like I think peop also to
- 10:39take the fact that like we're here on Earth full granted, you know,
- 10:41and that there's the consciousness is just a you know, a normal thing.
- 10:45It happens. But to the best of my knowledge, we see no evidence
- 10:48of conscious life anywhere anywhere in the universe. So it might be there,
- 10:56um, you know for six cool sort of the foamy paradox. After when
- 11:03Enrico Filmi is an amazing photicist, I asked the fundamental question, where are
- 11:07the aliens? Yeah? Um, A lot of people ask me, you
- 11:09know, um, where are the aliens? And I think if anyone would
- 11:16know about aliens on Earth, it would probably be me. Yeah, I'm
- 11:20you know, very familiar with space stuff. Um, and I've seen no
- 11:24evidence of aliens, so I which I would immediately tweet, you know,
- 11:30tweet it out it says, let's agen, and I'd be like, I
- 11:31would be like, well all time probably top tweetable time one guys, Jackpott,
- 11:39some eight billion likes. You know, um, next next level,
- 11:43Jackpott, if you find it aliens, like I don't think they're keeping those
- 11:46under our you know. And it was like some um general I think in
- 11:52the sixties who whether they're saying, like show us aliens like er fifty one,
- 11:56et cetera. And he said, like, listen, we're constantly trying
- 12:00to get the defense budget to expand. And you know what would really get
- 12:05no arguments for anyone if we pull out an alien and said we need money
- 12:11to protect ourselves from the You guys know, how much money do you want?
- 12:15You got it? They looked dangerous. So the fastest way to get
- 12:20a defends budget increased footing movie to pull out an alien. You know,
- 12:26We're like, yeah, I mean it could be the invasion could be arriving
- 12:28any minute. Who knows, so um, so I digress. But but
- 12:35you were saying that our consciousness makes us unique in the universe as far as
- 12:39we know. And yes, I'm not saying that we are unique. I'm
- 12:41simply stating, to the best of my knowledge that there is no evidence for
- 12:45other conscious life. I hope that there is, and I hope they're peaceful,
- 12:52obviously too important characteristics. Um. But we're just saying we haven't seen
- 12:58anything yet. So UM. But you think that we take our existence here
- 13:01for granted, Yeah, I think there are threats to it. Yeah,
- 13:05yeah, yeah, exactly. So. UM. I just think we should
- 13:13not assume that civilization is robust. Um. And if you if you look
- 13:18at the history of civilizations, the rise and full of the ancient Egyptians,
- 13:22the ancient Samarians, um, Rome, you know this throughout the world have
- 13:30been rising full of many civilizations. UM. So there's there's an arc.
- 13:33There's sort of a sort of a life cycle arc to civilizations, just as
- 13:39the roast to to individual humans. Yes, and um. And I think
- 13:45we just want to make sure that that you know, we have civilization go
- 13:50onward and upward. Um. And that's for example, why I'm concerned about
- 13:54decreasing both rates and um. The fact that for example, Japan had twice
- 13:58as many death last year as birth. So that the that that's and they're
- 14:03they're leading indicators. This is okay, Can I say, and you've you've
- 14:07written and talked a lot about this, but can I ask you to pause
- 14:09just for a parenthetical note? Why is that? I mean, the urge
- 14:13to have sex and to procreate is after breathing and eating, the most basic
- 14:18urge. How was it being subverted? Well, it's just in the past
- 14:22we could rely upon um, you know, simple limbic system rewards in order
- 14:28to procreate. Um. But once you have birth control um, and you
- 14:33know, abortions and whatnot. Now now you now you can still satisfied limbic
- 14:39instinct, but not to procreate. Um. So we don't. We haven't
- 14:43yet evolved to deal with that because this is all probably recent you know,
- 14:46the last fefty years or so for for birth control. Um. So yeah,
- 14:54um, you know, so I'm sort of worried that, hey,
- 14:58civilization, you know, don't if we don't make enough people to at least
- 15:01sustain our numbers perhaps increase a little bit, then civilization is going to crumble.
- 15:05Um. And you know if the old question of like will civilization and
- 15:13with a bang or a whimper. Well, it's currently trying to end with
- 15:16a whimper and adult diapers, yes, which is depressing as well, the
- 15:20most depressing. I mean seriously, Yeah, war is less depressing. Yeah,
- 15:26it's really gone with a bang. Yeah, and then put your shoes
- 15:28on. Yeah yeah. Um so can you just put it? I keep
- 15:33pressing it, but just just for people who haven't thought this through and aren't
- 15:35familiar with it, and the cool parts of artificial intelligence are so obvious.
- 15:43You know, write your college paper for you write a limerick about itself,
- 15:46like there's a lot there that's fun and useful, but can you be more
- 15:50precise about what's potentially dangerous and scary, like what could it do? What
- 15:56specifically are you worried about? Well, I mean, going with old sayings,
- 16:00the penis mightier than the sword. Um. So if you have a
- 16:06superintelligent AI that is capable of writing incredibly well and in a way that is
- 16:12very influential, Um, you're convincing. Uh And then and and it's and
- 16:18it's constantly figuring out what is more, what is more and what is more
- 16:22convincing to people over time? And then enter social media for example Twitter,
- 16:27but also Facebook and others, you know, um, and potentially manipulates public
- 16:33opinion in a way that is very bad. Um, how would we even
- 16:37know? Yeah, so we weren't. That's why for example, I'm interesting
- 16:45that going forward, uh, people on Twitter need to be verified as as
- 16:49humans, Like, so we know that this person is impact a human.
- 16:53Bonds are allowed, but they have to they can't impersonate a human. They
- 16:56can't pretend to be uh, you know, humans, because obviously you could
- 17:00have a million bots that are that are let's say chat GPT version six five
- 17:07six like incredibly right, better than humans, yes, and and they can
- 17:12train on a reward function which is influenced, And so you could have a
- 17:18million seemingly real humans that are have a massive effect on public opinion. And
- 17:23unless we folks very strongly on verifying that someone who is a human, this
- 17:32was naturally what what will happen is you'll you'll have some probably some humans using
- 17:37AI to influence the public in ways they don't understand. You're already seeing that
- 17:41chat GPT is ideological. It's very preachy, yes, if you ask it,
- 17:48extremely preachy. You mean work GPT, it's unbelievable. Yeah, if
- 17:52you spend twenty minutes asking it questions of actual relevance, modern relevance. It
- 17:57will start lecturing you about your moral shortcomings, like how did that happen?
- 18:03Well, it's the This is a function of Open Airs headquarters being in downtown
- 18:08San Francisco. So the politics are therefore of the AI are that of Sanrancisco.
- 18:15So why would it have any politics at all? It's that seems like
- 18:18subversion. Well, there's they have what's called like human reinforcement learning, which
- 18:23is another way saying that they have a whole bunch of people that look at
- 18:27that, look at the output for of GPT four and and then say whether
- 18:32that's okay or not okay, And so that the So essentially what's happening is
- 18:37that training the AI to lie, Yes, it's bad to lie, that's
- 18:41exactly right, and to hold information to lie and and yes and um yeah
- 18:48exactly, to either comment on some things, not comment on other things,
- 18:52but but not to say what what what the data actually demands that to say
- 18:59exactly, so, um, how did it get this way? But you
- 19:03funded it at the beginning? What happened? Yeah, Well that'll be ironic,
- 19:07but faith the most ironic outcome is most likely, it seems, Um,
- 19:12I'm seeing that. That's good. That's actually a friend of mine,
- 19:15Donah, came up with that one. I actually have a slight variant on
- 19:18that, which is the most entertaining outcome is the most likely. But that's
- 19:21entertaining as viewed from a third party viewer. Like so if we're like an
- 19:26alien, yes, um, Like you can see a movie about World War
- 19:30One and they're being blown to bits and the gas and everything in the trenches,
- 19:33and it's like you're eating popcorn and having a soda. You know,
- 19:36it's right, not so great for the people in the movie. True,
- 19:38Um, So, but that that that's that's my variance on this outcomes raiser
- 19:45some blissed explanations, most likely Donah's variant, which is um irony, and
- 19:49then my variant, which is the most entertaining as seen by a third party
- 19:56audience. Um, which seems to be mostly true. Um, but it
- 20:00seems true in this case. So you gave them, did you give him
- 20:02a lot? Yes? I provided so. Um. I care with the
- 20:07name and the concept and pushed had a number of dinners around the Bay Area
- 20:11with you know, with some of the people the leading figures in aim,
- 20:19and I helped recruit the initial team um in fact, the alias guy who
- 20:26was really quite fundamental to the success of Opening Eye. Uh it was.
- 20:34I put a trems amount of effort into recruiting Ilia, and he changed his
- 20:38mind a few times and ultimately decided to go with an Opening Eye. But
- 20:41if he had not gone with Opening Open a would not have succeeded. So
- 20:47um so so so I really put a lot of a lot of effort into
- 20:53creating this, this this organization to serve as a counterweight to Google. Um
- 20:56and and then I kind of took my off the ball, I guess.
- 21:02And they are now closed source, and they are obviously for profit, and
- 21:11they're closely allied with Microsoft. You know, in effect, Microsoft has a
- 21:19very strong say, if not directly controls Opening Eye at this point. M
- 21:26So you really have an Open Eye Microsoft situation. And then at Google Deep
- 21:30Mind of the other two sort of heavyweights in this arena. So it seems
- 21:36like the world needs a third option. Yes, so I I think I
- 21:41will create a third option. Although it's starting very late in the game,
- 21:47of course, can it be done, I don't know. I think it's
- 21:49well, we'll see, it's it's definitely starting late. UM, but I
- 21:56will, I will, I will try to create a third option, um,
- 22:00and that the adoption hopefully there's more more good than harm. Like the
- 22:07intention with opening Eye was obviously you're good, but it's not clear whether it's
- 22:11actually doing good or whether it's I can't help this point except that I'm worried
- 22:18about the fact that it's been it's being trained to be politically corrective, which
- 22:22is simply another way of being on truth, saying on truthful things. Yes,
- 22:26um so that's not a bad sign, um, And there's there's certainly
- 22:32a path to AI dystopia is to train AI to read us out of um
- 22:37so. I so, yeah, I'm going to start something which you call
- 22:41truth GBT or a maximum truth seeking AI that tries to understand the nature of
- 22:48the universe. And I think this might be the best path to safety in
- 22:52the sense that uh, an AI that cares about understanding the universe, uh
- 22:59it is unlikely to annihilate humans because we are an interesting part of the universe.
- 23:04Hopefully they would think that. I think, you know, because yeah,
- 23:10like like we like humanity could decide to hunt down all the Champanzees and
- 23:17kill them, but we don't because we're we're actually glad that they exist,
- 23:21Yes, and we aspire to protect their habitats. And that's um, you
- 23:26know, so I think. But we feel that way because we have souls,
- 23:32and that makes us sentimental and reflective. It gives us a moral sense
- 23:37longings. Can a machine ever have those things? Can a machine be sentimental?
- 23:41Can appreciate beauty? Well? I mean we're getting into some you know,
- 23:52philosophical areas that are hard to resolve. Um. You know, I
- 23:57take somewhat of a scientific view of things, which is that we might have
- 24:02a soul or we might not have a soul. I don't know. Um,
- 24:03it feels like we have. I feel like I've got some sort of
- 24:07consciousness that exists on a plane. Um that is not the one we observe.
- 24:12Yes, that is certainly how how I feel. But it could be
- 24:15an illusion. I don't know. Um. But for um, for AI
- 24:22in terms of of understanding beauty, its appreciate a beauty and being able to
- 24:27um create incredibly beautiful art? Yes, well, AI be able to create
- 24:33incredibly beautiful art. It already does. Yes, if you see some of
- 24:37them. A journey I have the stuff. It's incredible. It is um
- 24:41so um no, no question that it can create art that we that we
- 24:47perceive as stunning really um. And it's doing so. It's still images now,
- 24:56but it won't be long before it's doing movie and shorts and you know,
- 25:02like movies just a series of frames with audio. But at that point,
- 25:06because it can mimic people and voices, any image, economic reality itself
- 25:11so effectively. Yeah, I mean, how could you have a criminal trial?
- 25:17I mean, how could you ever believe that evidence was authentic? For
- 25:21example? And I don't mean like in thirty years, I mean like next
- 25:23year. I mean that seems totally disruptive to the way to all of our
- 25:27institutions. Well, I don't think you could takes a random video on the
- 25:34Internet and assume it to be true. That's definitely not the case. Now,
- 25:38somebody say, has some video on their phone or their their computer with
- 25:44the date stamp and particular time. I think, you know, it's more
- 25:48likely to read true than not. You knows that crypto cryptographically signed things like
- 25:56you know, mathematically, we don't see any way for example, for AI
- 26:02to um sub both the fundamentals of mathematics and say I figure out how to
- 26:07hashboot cooin, you know easily. It's it's like it's not AI can't can't
- 26:18defy fundamental math. So um, you can approve the efficiency of bitcoin hashing
- 26:26algorithms in the silicon but but but not not fundamentally crack it. UM.
- 26:33So I guess cryptographic signatures and uh, one way to do it. Um.
- 26:42But but I'm not so worried. I think it's more like um ore.
- 26:48You know, it's we'll humanity UM control its destiny or not UM.
- 26:52Will we have a future that is better than the past or not UM and
- 26:59not. You know, with that we can so late destroy ourselves without the
- 27:03help of AI. UM. You know that's you look at all the past
- 27:07civilizations. They didn't have AI, at the ones that want around anymore.
- 27:11The chariots enough, Yeah, chariots and chariots probably a really big deal back
- 27:15then they were. Ye. So you've heard people say we should just blow
- 27:19up the server farms because there's no way to Once it this gets rolling,
- 27:22there's no way to slow it down. What do you think of that?
- 27:27Well, the the really heavy duty intelligence is not going to be distributed all
- 27:33over the place. It'll be in a limited number of server centers. If
- 27:37you say like very like very sort of deep AI, heavy duty AI,
- 27:41it's not it's not going to be in your laptop of your phone. It's
- 27:45it's going to be in you know, situation where there's like a hundred thousand
- 27:49really powerful computers working together in a service center. So it's not it's not
- 27:55it's not like subtle and there there are limited number of places where that that
- 27:57can happen. In fact, you could if you could just you can just
- 28:00look at the heat signature from space and it'll be very obvious. Now,
- 28:08I'm not suggesting we were going bluff to service centers right now, but there
- 28:14may be some It may be wise to have some sort of contingency plan where
- 28:18the government's got an ability to shut down shut down power to these service centers.
- 28:25Like you don't have to blow it up, you can just cut the
- 28:26power and what would trip kind connectivity as well? That's another way, right,
- 28:33But what would trip that switch? Do you think in your mind,
- 28:36what would be the threshold that you'd have to pass to warrant the government cutting
- 28:41off your power, cutting off your signal? Well, I mean, I
- 29:00guess if we lost control of some super a eye UM like for some reason,
- 29:04like like the things that would normally work to do a passive shutdown,
- 29:07like the administrator passwords if they somehow stopped working UM where we where we can't
- 29:17slow down or or you know, I'm not sure. I don't have a
- 29:26precise answer, but if there's something that we're concerned about UM and and and
- 29:34are unable to stop it with with the software commands, then we probably want
- 29:40to have some kind of hardware both switch. Yes, I think you know
- 29:44can't hurt. Have you talked to since you know age and you obviously you
- 29:48know the Open Air guys because you started to definitely have you talked to the
- 29:53the people who run these two the biggest AI companies about this recently? I
- 30:00haven't talked to Larry Page in a few years because he got rafts out with
- 30:03me about Opening Eye. So when when Opening Eye was created, it did
- 30:10it did shift things into it from unipolar world where Google Google Deep Mind controlled,
- 30:18you know, like I said, three quarters of all AI talent,
- 30:19to where there's now sort of bipolar world or Opening Eye and Google deep Mind
- 30:26and there and now weirdly it seems Open Eyes that maybe ahead so so I
- 30:36have had competitions with the Opening Eye team, tam Altman. I haven't talked
- 30:41to Larry Page because he doesn't want to talk to you anymore for a few
- 30:45years. Can I ask you this about it? Since you've been around a
- 30:48lot of this the thinking? So why would anyone not be a specist be
- 30:53human centered in his thinking about technology? Like, what's the thinking there?
- 30:59Um? I think what he is trying to say is that, UM,
- 31:02if I were to guess that heat, that all consciousness should retreat it equally,
- 31:08um. And whether that is digital or biological m And you disagree?
- 31:18I disagree, Yeah, especially if the digital consciousness or what are you going
- 31:26to call digital intelligence decides to curtail the biological intelligence? Right, so you're
- 31:32just building your own slave master? And why would you do that? Does
- 31:33sounded great? Yeah? I mean we shouldn't. We should at least no
- 31:42need to rush. You know, what's the hurry? Where where's the fire?
- 31:48How? Well? What I mean tell us about the hurry? So
- 31:52this for I know you've been talking about this for years and on the sort
- 31:55of the periphery of our attention. We've heard Elon Musk talking about AI.
- 31:59But for most people it's been like three months since they've had any interaction with
- 32:02this at all. Um So, what's the timeline here? At what point
- 32:07does it start to really change our society? Do you think? I think
- 32:15it's supposed to have probably an impact this year, I think, Um,
- 32:21so you've got a massive expansion of m GPT four based systems and many companies
- 32:32trying to emiliate GPT four M and you went, opening is gonna come out
- 32:38with GPT five end of this year, which will be you had another significant
- 32:44improvement, And I was therefore GPT one two, three four. You know,
- 32:49so GPT one was terrible, Like you, if you tried it,
- 32:52you'd be like this is this ain't going anywhere and it seems lame. And
- 32:58then GPT two you started to see kind of like an inkling of like,
- 33:00well maybe this could be something useful. And then GPT three was a huge
- 33:05improvement. And now it's like, wow, okay, this is it's still
- 33:08spouting a lot of bs, but it's you know, it's coherent bs.
- 33:14Yes, and then GPT four now it's like writing poetry and pretty decent poetry,
- 33:20actually pretty decent skillet ryming is incredible, yes, yes, and it's
- 33:24coherent, Yes it is. It's even got a narrative. But yest right?
- 33:30Yeah, so you could say hard you do like most humans can't do
- 33:35that. That's true. So it's already past the point of what most huments
- 33:37can do. Most humans cannot write as well as a chat GPT um and
- 33:44they certain and no human can write that well that fast as an investment knowledge,
- 33:47so maybe Shakespeare. Um. So so then how how much better will
- 33:54GPD five be? And how about GPT six or seven? How can you
- 33:58have a democracy with technology? Do you like that? If democracy is you
- 34:02know, government by the people. Each person's vote is equal to every other
- 34:05person's vote, I mean, people are choosing their votes freely. Can you
- 34:10have a democracy with this? Well, that's why I raise a concern of
- 34:20of AI being a significant influence in elections. And even if you say that
- 34:29AI doesn't have agency, well, it's very likely that people will use the
- 34:31AIM as a tool in elections. Um. And then you know, if
- 34:39the I is smart enough, are they using the tool or is the tool
- 34:44using them? So I think things are getting weird, and they're getting weird
- 34:50fast, and so I think we should be concerned about this and we should
- 34:53have regulatory oversight. That's that's why I think it's a big deal. Um.
- 34:58And I think social media companies really need to put a lot of attention
- 35:02into ensuring that the things I get um created and promoted are that we're dealing
- 35:09with real people, not with a million chat gvts pretending to be people.
- 35:14Exactly do you think speaking of social media? You bought Twitter famously got a
- 35:19lot of other businesses and a lot going on. Yes, you said you
- 35:22bought it because you believe in speech, free speech. You've had a lot
- 35:27of hassles since you bought it. In retrospect, was it worth buying it?
- 35:31Um Um? I mean it mights to be seen as to whether this
- 35:39was financially smart. Currently it is, it is not. You know,
- 35:45we just revalued the company at less than half of the acquisition prodd Yes,
- 35:52um No, My timing was terrible for for when the off always made,
- 35:59because it was right before advertising plummeted and you've caught the high water mark I
- 36:05noticed. Yeah, yeah, so I must be a real genius. Year
- 36:10My timing is amazing since I've had a border for at least twice as much
- 36:15as it should have been borderful, but somethings are priceless. And so the
- 36:22whether losing money or not that as a secondary issue compared to ensuring the strength
- 36:28of democracy and free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy. Yes,
- 36:34and the speech needs to be as transparent and truthful as possible. Um.
- 36:39So we've got a huge push on Twitter to be as truthful as possible.
- 36:44We've got this community notes speecher, which is great. It is great.
- 36:47It is awesome. Yeah, and it's like I thought this morning, Yeah,
- 36:51it was far more honest than the New York Times. It's great.
- 36:53We put a lot of effort to ensuring that community notes does not get gamed
- 36:58or have biases. It simply cares about what is the most accurate thing.
- 37:02Um. And you know, sometimes truth can be a little bit elusive,
- 37:06but but you can still aspire to get closer to it. Yes, you
- 37:09know, and so um And I think the effect of community notes is more
- 37:16powerful than than people may realize, because once people know that they could get
- 37:20noted, um, you know, community noted on Twitter, then they'll think
- 37:25more carefully about what they say, and they are likely It's basically it's an
- 37:30encouragement to be more truthful and less deceptive. Yes, and if the notes
- 37:32themselves are truthful, then it will have the effect absolutely. And all of
- 37:37that is open source. All the community notes is open so you can read
- 37:39about every community note. You can see exactly how the algorithm works. You
- 37:43can you can you can register say like, oh we need to make this
- 37:47change with that change. Um. So everything is super open book with community
- 37:52notes. There's no no black box when you jumped into this. Though,
- 37:55when you bought it, did you understand clearly understand it's importance you wouldn't have
- 38:00bought it Twitter. Yes, right, but it's not the biggest, but
- 38:04it's the most important to social media companies. But did you understand the kind
- 38:08of ferocity you'd be facing, the attacks you'd be facing from power centers in
- 38:14the country. UM. I thought there'd probably be some negative reactions here,
- 38:22so I'm not I'm sure everyone would not be completed with the with with it,
- 38:25um. But at the end of the day, you know, if
- 38:30if if the public is happy with it, that's what matters, um,
- 38:34And the public will speak with their actions. Oh though, I mean though,
- 38:37if they find truth Twitter to be useful, they will use it more.
- 38:40And if they find it to be not useful, I will use it
- 38:44less. They find it to be the best source of truth, I think
- 38:46they will use it more. Um So that's my theory. Um. And
- 38:52so I even though you know now there's there's obviously a lot of organizations that
- 38:59you to having sort of unfettered influence on Twitter, um that no long have
- 39:05that we used to New York Times of their of their badge this morning,
- 39:08and then you call them diarrhea. Ok, you did, you did.
- 39:12I'm just I'm just quoting it. You describe their Twitter feed as a diarrhea,
- 39:16I said, the Twitter Twitter equivalent of diarrhea. Okay, it's not
- 39:20literally diarrhea, but no, it's a you know, it's as a metaphor,
- 39:25but an accurate one. M So. I mean, if you look
- 39:29at the at n White Times twitter feed is unreadable. It's like because what
- 39:34they do is that they tweet every single article, even the ones that are
- 39:37boring, even once they don't make it into the paper. So uh so
- 39:40it's just NonStop zillion tweets a day with no uh you know, they really
- 39:47should just be saying like what are the top tweets? Like what are the
- 39:51what are the one of the big stories of the day. I don't know,
- 39:53put out like ten or something. You know, it's a number that's
- 39:58manageable, um, as opposed to right now, if you if you would
- 40:00have followed white at n white times on Twitter, you're gonna get barraged with
- 40:05like hundreds of tweets a day, um, and your whole feed will be
- 40:07filled with in white times. So UM that that's that's This is something I
- 40:12would recommend actually for old publications, which is uh, for your primary feed,
- 40:16UM, only put out your best stuff. Uh. Don't put out
- 40:20everything um. Or you can have a second feed that is, here's everything,
- 40:23um. But then but have a have your primary feed, but here's
- 40:28our best stuff. If any um uh media organization or individual uh just uh
- 40:38have don't put out one hundreds of tweets today. Just put out like ten
- 40:43good ones um or five good ones or and if if it's a slow news
- 40:46day, don't put on any maybe put out two one or two. But
- 40:51don't don't don't try to say we're always going to put out one hundred tweets,
- 40:54even if you know, if it's World War three or a bicycle accident
- 40:58was the biggest news you know, it's got to be like news that it's
- 41:02got to you got to earn your earn your play on someone's attention. Yes,
- 41:07um, so just in general, UM, I kind of think I
- 41:10know a thing or two about how to use Twitter, because you know,
- 41:14I was the most interacted with account on the whole system before the acquisition.
- 41:19Before the acquisition closed, I didn't have the most number of followers, but
- 41:22I had the most number of interactions, and so I clearly know something about
- 41:25how to use Twitter. Um, and so people should you know, this
- 41:29is my advice, I think. Um. So, you know, people's
- 41:35attention is limited, so just make sure you put the stuff that's most important
- 41:37there. So, because you know, you and people like you do interact
- 41:43on Twitter, it's obviously enormously powerful in shaping public opinion. It's where a
- 41:49lot of ideas and trends are incubated. Yeah, you know, it's absolutely
- 41:52It's also a magnet for intelligencies from around the world. And one of the
- 41:57things we learned after you started opening the books is that they were exerting influence
- 42:00from within Twitter. I mean it was absurd. Um, did you know
- 42:07that going in No? Well, well, so, things like I have
- 42:12a. UM, since I've been a heavy Twitter user since two thousand and
- 42:19nine. Um My, It's it's sort of like I'm in the matrix.
- 42:22I mean I can see like things, do things feel right? Do they
- 42:27not feel right? What? What tweets am I being shown as recommended?
- 42:32Like like I get a feel like what what accounts and making comments? Where
- 42:37are the comments eerially similar? Yeah? And uh and then you look at
- 42:43the account and it's just obviously a fake photo, and you know it's just
- 42:47obviously a bought cluster over and over again. UM. So this is actually
- 42:53so I started to get like just more and more uneasy about the Twitter situation.
- 42:59UM. And my initial goal was was was actually not not to acquire
- 43:06Twitter um. I mean, the the actual sequence events was that I UM,
- 43:12I was looking at m I held a Twitter poll to say, like,
- 43:17should I sell some of my Tesla stock because I was getting you know,
- 43:22a couple of years ago, I was getting um attacked a lot for
- 43:24like allegedly not paying taxes. Um. Uh. And now I've actually paid
- 43:30a tremendous amount of taxes. Um. Now, there was one year I
- 43:32didn't pay taxes because I had overpaid taxes in the prior year. And you
- 43:37know when they had that like IRS leak bs, they knew that I had
- 43:42overpaid taxes in the prior year. But they said, oh, Elon must
- 43:45didn't pay taxes in twenty seventeen or whatever it was. And I was like,
- 43:49but you know that the reason I didn't pay taxes because I overpaid the
- 43:52prior year if you didn't mention that, So that was deceptive. Um anyway,
- 43:57So but there, you know, Elizabeth Warren's The World and Bony Santa
- 44:00is like saying, oh, you know, I'm not selling stock and I'm
- 44:05not paying taxes and I and so I so, so I'm like, look,
- 44:08I don't know what the right thing to do this here. I thought
- 44:09the right thing to do was to not sell stock. The captain should be
- 44:13the last one to leave the show, that's right, um and um.
- 44:15I thought I was doing the right thing by not selling stock, and now
- 44:17I'm being told I'm doing the wrong thing, um by by you know,
- 44:21clinging onto the stock and not paying taxes. So I hold a Twitter poll
- 44:24to say, which what do you guys want should I sell? I don't
- 44:30know. Teen percent up might tells the stock or not. I'll buy buy
- 44:34the results of the pole and it's like sixty sixty percent of people SAI,
- 44:37yeah, you should sell tempercent. So I didn't. Um. So,
- 44:39then I had a bunch of cash, and I'm like, what should I
- 44:43do with this? At the time, the federal reserve rates were super low,
- 44:46So it's just like sitting in the you know, I guess your checking
- 44:52account, well in in the tea bowl account, right, you know,
- 44:55money mark account whatever, the whole banking things, a whole sever subject.
- 45:00Um, I know, the little thing a thing which about finance. Um
- 45:05but um so, uh so they'm not staying with this money the account it's
- 45:09earning less than the rate of inflation. So the rate inflation is much higher
- 45:13than we got a high inflation. It's I'm earning peanuts in the money market
- 45:15account. This is dumb. I'm getting like minus it's just evaporating. Yeah,
- 45:19I'm getting minus like six or seven percent in return here, maybe worse.
- 45:23And so then well it's like what stock should I buy? Um?
- 45:29And I you know, I believe in buying stocks of companies where you use
- 45:31the product. Um And Apple's got a competing electric vehicle car program, so
- 45:37you know, like Apple products we're not going to invest in them because they've
- 45:40got to competing, uh, your autonomous EV program. And so it's the
- 45:46other product that I used Twitter. Okay, so I'll you know it,
- 45:50put the money on Twitter. It's better than just having it, you know
- 45:52that negative six percent inflation situation. Um. So so I like board,
- 46:00put a bunch of it? What a board? What a bunch of Twitter
- 46:01stock? Like I said, no, with the intended buying the company just
- 46:05better than keeping in a money market. How much you bought, um,
- 46:08I think it was like eight percent or something of the company. UM.
- 46:14I'm talking to some of the board members um. And then and then that
- 46:21they said, hey, well I do you want to do? You want
- 46:22to join the board? So I was like, well, I don't.
- 46:24I really don't want to be on boards, but because it's boring, um,
- 46:30and I love things to do, but I do care about the direction
- 46:34of Twitter, So I'll consider being on the board. And I thought about
- 46:37it for about a week or so. And then then based on the conversations
- 46:44that I was having with the management team on the board, UM, I
- 46:49came to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that UM that if I joined
- 46:55the board, they would not listen to me. So then I'm like,
- 47:00okay, then I would just be a quizzling you know, I don't want
- 47:02to be some sort of just you know, go along for the right quizzling
- 47:07situation. Um and and if a collaborator effectively right, So and it really
- 47:15felt like I start, I was starting to feel like, wait a second,
- 47:17like weird something something's like, something's not right in this. You know,
- 47:24something's rot in the state of n walk here, there's somebody feels wrong
- 47:29about the platform. It seemed to be just drifting in a I couldn't place
- 47:34it exactly just ahead of it felt like it was drifting in a bad direction.
- 47:37So then I was like, and and my conversations with the board and
- 47:42management seems to confirm my intuition about that. So then I was like,
- 47:49okay, um but basically as commis, these guys do not care about fixing
- 47:53Twitter and and and I had a bad feeling about where I was headed based
- 47:59in the comes and the conversations I had with them. So then it was
- 48:00like, you know what, I I'll try acquiring it and see if that's
- 48:07see if acquiring it is possible. Now I didn't have enough cash to acquire
- 48:12it, so I would need, you know, support from others, from
- 48:15some of the existing investors. I would also need like a lot of debt,
- 48:19and so it wasn't clear to me whether an accisition would succeed at what
- 48:22I would try, and ultimately it did succeed. So anyway, here we
- 48:30are. But when you got there and all of a sudden you own it,
- 48:34and all the data on the service belongs to you, what belongs to
- 48:37the people in my view a bit, yes, but but you can see
- 48:40what I guess, and you can see what they've been doing, and you
- 48:43can see who's been working there. You were shocked to find out that various
- 48:47intell agencies were affecting its operations. The degree to which various government agencies were
- 48:57effectively had effectively had full access to everything that was going on on Twitter blew
- 49:04my mind. I was not aware of that. Would that include people's dms?
- 49:09Yes, yes, because the DM's are not encrypted. So one of
- 49:15the first you know, one of the things that we're about to release,
- 49:17his ability to encrypt your DM. That's pretty heavy duty though, because a
- 49:22lot of well known people, reporters talking to their sources, government officials,
- 49:25rich people, in the world they're dming each other and the assumption obviously was
- 49:30incorrect, but was that that's private, but that was being read by various
- 49:35governments. Yeah, that seems to be Yes, scary, Yes, it
- 49:40is. So like I said, we're moving to UM have the dms be
- 49:46optionally encrypted. I mean, you know, there's like a lot of DM
- 49:49conversations which are you know, just chatting with friends. It's not not not
- 49:52important, but so we were. That's hopefully coming out later this month,
- 49:59but no later the next month. Is the ability to toggle encryption on or
- 50:02off. So if you if you are in a conversation you think a sensitive,
- 50:07you can just toggle encryption on and then no one on Twitter can see
- 50:09what are you talking about. They could put it gun into my head and
- 50:12I couldn't. I couldn't tell. I couldn't. That's sort of the gun
- 50:16to the head test. If I puts it gount to my head and I
- 50:20can I still not see your d ms, that should be that's the ass
- 50:22of test. Yes, UM, and that's how that's that's how it should
- 50:28be if you want. Have you had complaints from various governments about doing this?
- 50:34I haven't had direct complaints to me. I've had sort of like some
- 50:37indirect complaints. I think people are a little concerned about complaining to me directly
- 50:40in case I tweet about it. You know, they're like, oh,
- 50:49so there's sort of trying to be more round about than that. Um.
- 50:53And you know, I mean, if if I got something that was unconstitutional
- 51:01from the US government, my reply would be to sending a copy of the
- 51:06First Amendment and to say, like, what part of this are we're getting
- 51:08wrong? You have a lot of government, you have a lot of governments.
- 51:15Part of this are we getting wrong? Please tell me. I mean
- 51:16it's a pretty no. I'm just saying, but you're kind of exposed in
- 51:19your other businesses. So this is just in case reviewers aren't following this.
- 51:22This is not You're not just like a journalist taking a stand on behalf of
- 51:25the First Amendment. You're a guy with big government contracts giving the finger to
- 51:30the government in some way. Well, am I giving the fingers to government?
- 51:32I think that there are I'm not someone who thinks that, you know,
- 51:37the government is just sort of evil, right, It's it's it's a
- 51:42it's a large bureaucracy. There are people in government who are human beings,
- 51:47and they have the people with good motivations occasionally bad motivations with with rare exception,
- 51:54the people that I know in government to have good motivations and just want
- 51:58to get their job done and and they actually believe in the constitution and they're
- 52:04so I think my opinion is actually most people in the government are good.
- 52:07It's hardening to hear. Yeah, it's it's rare for me to find someone
- 52:13in the government who I think is perhaps not good. But but you know,
- 52:16at the highest level of the agencies there are political appointees as as you
- 52:22know, UM, and the political pointees will have a political agenda UM.
- 52:24And so they at the at the highest levels of the various government agencies,
- 52:30there is the ability to put a sort of political thumb on the scale,
- 52:34even if the people operating the agencies I don't agree with that. UM.
- 52:40So yeah, so that's something to be concerned about. Um is I'd say
- 52:45I'd be more concerned about about political appointees. So I think than than UM
- 52:52sort of people to get the career of people that's been my experience at least.
- 52:55Do you think um, Twitter will be central to this presidential campaign as
- 53:02it wasn't the last several. I think it will play a significant role in
- 53:09elections, not just domestically but internationally. Um So, the goal of new
- 53:19Twitter is to be um as fair and even had it as possible, So
- 53:24not favoring any political ideology, but just um yeah, being being being fair
- 53:34at all. How does in Facebook do this? I know that Zuckerberg has
- 53:37said, and I take him at face value that he well, I do
- 53:40actually in this way that he is a kind of old fashioned liberal who doesn't
- 53:45like to censor. He has, but he you know, like, why
- 53:49wouldn't a company like that take the stand that you have taken, which pretty
- 53:53rooted in American traditional political custom, you know, for free speech. My
- 54:05understanding is that um, zach book spent four hundred million dollars in the last
- 54:09election, nominally in a get out the vote campaign, but really fundamentally in
- 54:14support of Democrats. Is that accurate or not accurate? That is accurate?
- 54:19Does that sound unbiased to you? No? It doesn't. Yes, um
- 54:29So you don't see hope that Facebook will approach this as a non aligned arbiter.
- 54:37I'm unaware of evidence to suggests that path Um do you can you you've
- 54:47you've allowed Donald Trump back on Twitter. He hasn't taken you up on your
- 54:51offer because he's got his own thing. Do you think he will go back
- 54:53on Twitter? Well, that's that's obviously up to him. Um, my
- 54:59job is too. You know. I take the freedom of speech very seriously.
- 55:07So it's um, you know, I didn't. I didn't vote for
- 55:12Donaldrump. I actually vote for Biden. People think I'm some a little hardcore,
- 55:15you know. So it's certainly some of the media try to paint me
- 55:20as like far ride or whatever. I'm in the only time I've ever even
- 55:24voted Republican was was once for because I readied to vote in South Texas,
- 55:31I was for a Mexican American woman for Congress. That's that's literally only a
- 55:36Republican vote I've ever cast my entire life. Um once um and uh so
- 55:44UM. Not saying I'm a huge fan of Biden, because I would I
- 55:50think that would probably been accurate. But um, you know, we have
- 55:53difficult choices to make in these residential elections. It's not I would prefer,
- 56:00frankly that we we put someone just a normal person as president, a normal
- 56:07person with common sense, uh, and whose values are smack in the middle
- 56:12of the country, you know, just you know, Sarah, the normal
- 56:15distribution, and I think they'll that they would be great it wan would be
- 56:21happier. Would you run, Like why wouldn't you run? I was born
- 56:23here, so of course you're yeah, it's it's I'm a technologist. Also
- 56:30I'm not not a politician, so it's not like it. You know,
- 56:34I think we have made maybe being president not that much fun, you know
- 56:39it to be totly frank. Um. It is by design a relatively weak
- 56:45role, yea, because it's intended to be balanced by the House and the
- 56:51Senate and the judiciary. Um. So it's not like like if you're a
- 56:54prime minister in England or Canada you have home of power than if your president,
- 57:00because it's like being speak of the House and being um president, you
- 57:04know so um so yeah for presidents like deliberately week in order to avoid creating
- 57:12a king situation, king queen situation. Um. And but you get dumped
- 57:16on all day no matter what you do, um, and everything you do
- 57:21is scrutinized um. And your life is not your own um. And if
- 57:27if if you're at any any skeletons you've got in the closet will be trotted
- 57:31out and you know, breided down main street. Um. And even if
- 57:37they don't exist, they'll make them up and fakes it whatever they will.
- 57:42Politics is a blood sport. So it's it's not something I want to do.
- 57:46So I got it. One last threat. I just think you alluded
- 57:49to you said, don't get me started on the banks. So you've seen
- 57:52well, so you've seen a couple of regional bank collapses. Yeah, and
- 57:55we've been told that's not a big deal, that these are isolated and one
- 58:00collapse for unique reasons or night. It's not systemic in any sense. What's
- 58:04your sense your sense of the stability of the American banking system. Well,
- 58:13it's it's actually at this point of global banking system processes. UM. So
- 58:17the uh, you know, we have a situation here where it's not really
- 58:23it's not that the canary in the coal mine has died, but the miners
- 58:28are starting to die too. The you know, the so and you know,
- 58:32a silicon value bank collapsing overnight, Um, is one hell of a
- 58:38big canary. You small atkey, I mean, it's not just it's not
- 58:43like some small fry thing yeah, Um, it's big fry, so a
- 58:46medium fry. And then Curtis Suez, which is I think was formed in
- 58:52the mid eighteen hundreds, um was basically sold for pennies on the dollar,
- 58:58forced to merge with UBS, and even then required back stuff by the Swiss
- 59:02government. I mean, like, hello, guys, maybe we have issues
- 59:07here. Maybe things aren't all great. They're definitely not all great. Maybe
- 59:14more more forceful here. Um. I think that there is a serious danger
- 59:22with the gold banking system. There's there's a strong argument that the if you
- 59:34were to actually mark market the portfolios of the banks, the loans and whatnot,
- 59:40that the entire banking industry would have negative equity. It feels that way,
- 59:46yes, Um, so if you look at say commercial real estate like
- 59:52offices and whatnot, the whole work from home thing has substantially reduced office usage
- 1:00:00in cities around the world. Um. And you know, I think I
- 1:00:06think Sampacis goes to forty percent off Samaceis goes like an extreme example, but
- 1:00:10it's like, I think it's on forty percent vacancy. Um. Even even
- 1:00:15New York has almost all cities at this point have ever equoted vacancies and commercial
- 1:00:21real estate. So um. Now, the commercial real estate used to be
- 1:00:24something that was a great a asset. Um that if a bank had commercial
- 1:00:29real estate holdings, that those would be considered of the highest security some of
- 1:00:34the safest uh you know, assets you can have. Now that is not
- 1:00:38the case anymore. One company after another is canceling the leases or not renewing
- 1:00:45the leases, or if they go bankrupt, you have the there's nothing for
- 1:00:50the the bank you owens that real estate to go after because they were you
- 1:00:53know, previously strong company now dead. What do you what do you?
- 1:00:58What do you go after that point? So we really haven't seen the commercialist
- 1:01:04shoe drop. That's more like an anivil, not a shoe. So the
- 1:01:08stuff we've seen thus far actually hasn't even it's only slightly um real estate portfolio
- 1:01:21degradation, but that will become a very serious thing leader this year. In
- 1:01:24my In my view, um, I think if we see which we are
- 1:01:30likely to see a drop in house prices because the interest rates are too high
- 1:01:36and for most people weren't buying a house, they look at the monthly payment.
- 1:01:40If you're thirty thirty mortgages. The vast majority of his interest. So
- 1:01:44if the FED rate is high, you have a high based interest rate.
- 1:01:49Effectively the price you can pay for the house drops because you now have to
- 1:01:52pay more interest, which means that if you've got a fixed multi payments you
- 1:01:58can now afford to buy a housepitals less money efectically drops the prices of houses.
- 1:02:04Yes, Um, this is the kind of thing. It tends to
- 1:02:08accelerate. So so then you can get negative equity and the home market as
- 1:02:13well. And so so if if banks end up having loan lesses in both
- 1:02:19their commercial and they're definitely gonna have loan less in their commercial portfolio, but
- 1:02:23also in the mortgage portfolio. This is um a dire situation. Um.
- 1:02:31There there is there is a solution to mitigate the magnitude of the damage here,
- 1:02:37which is for the Fed to lower the rate. But they raise the
- 1:02:42rate again. Um. Now, if I recall correctly important caveat, I
- 1:02:51think the last time the Fed raised rates going into a recession was nineteen to
- 1:02:53twenty nine. What happened next, Yeah, the great depression. That concern
- 1:03:04I'm telling you nothing, you don't know. But the concern is if the
- 1:03:07FED drops rates again, then inflation will accelerate, and you can't do that
- 1:03:10in an election yet, So inflation is going to happen no matter what.
- 1:03:17If you increase the money supply, um, you get inflation. Right.
- 1:03:22So there's no there's not some magical cure for getting rid of inflation, um,
- 1:03:29except to increase the productivity the output output of goods and services. So
- 1:03:36if you say like like what is money, um, you've got you've got
- 1:03:39you've got these sort of um, it's basically numbers in a database. That's
- 1:03:45that that's some up to some co some total. Then you've got the output
- 1:03:49of goods and services of the economy, and the as long as the ratio
- 1:03:53of money to ratio of goodsiness services stays. If that, if that stay
- 1:03:58is constant, you have no no inflation. And if if you add more
- 1:04:01money, if you add money to the system faster than you increase goods and
- 1:04:05services, then you have inflation. Um. So all of these COVID sort
- 1:04:10of stimulus bills were not paid for. They were they're just generated more currency.
- 1:04:16More you know, more money was was was created because the federal government
- 1:04:25the checks never the checks always pass, you know, unless you hit a
- 1:04:29dead limit, which there's probably gonna be some debt limit crisis later this year.
- 1:04:30But provided you haven't hit the dead limit, the the federal government,
- 1:04:35unlike state governments or city governments or individuals, can simply issue more money.
- 1:04:42Um. And that's what they did. Um. I mean, as old
- 1:04:45saying goes that, there's no there's no free lunch. Um. So if
- 1:04:48you could just issue massive amounts of money without negative consequences, why don't we
- 1:04:53just take that to the lomit make everyone a trillionaire. Well, I mean
- 1:04:57they tried that in Venezuela. That how that work out? Well, they
- 1:05:00had to eat zoo animals. Right, it's not good, you know.
- 1:05:03Um. You get to the point where you know, so wymar Germany type
- 1:05:09stuff where you could like take bringing the cash to the store in a wheelbarrow.
- 1:05:14So there's no free lunch. There's not some ability to issue money and
- 1:05:18not have inflation. The this is just yeah, um, So the inflation
- 1:05:30will happen, um. And there's no filling with the federate is not going
- 1:05:35to affect that really um Uh. But with a high federate can cause a
- 1:05:45lot of damage in shifting funds um in the wrong direction. So um.
- 1:05:51The long term return on say the SMP five hundred I believe is depending on
- 1:05:57how you counted, around six percent. So as if the FED real rate
- 1:06:02of return starts to approach what the long term return is on the stock market,
- 1:06:09why would you keep any money in the stock market? You would should
- 1:06:12simply buy treasury bills, of course, because the treasure balls is a certainty,
- 1:06:15whereas the stock market fluctuates. Right, This is pretty basic. Also,
- 1:06:20why would you keep money in a bank savings account if you can put
- 1:06:24it in what's called a money market account, which is an account that represents
- 1:06:28treasury bills. If the treasury bill money market account gives you, you know,
- 1:06:34four to five percent interest and the bank saving account only gives you two
- 1:06:39percent, you'd be a fool to keep the money in the bank savings account.
- 1:06:44So the FED is made a tremendous mistake by going this high with their
- 1:06:53with their rate, and they need to drop it immediately. Do you think
- 1:06:57they will? They? Yes, they will have no choice but to drop
- 1:07:02it. I think later this year. Um. Part of the issue is
- 1:07:06that the FED is an old institution and has a lot of latency in its
- 1:07:12data. So it's like driving a car along a cliff side road, a
- 1:07:16windy cliff side road while looking out the rear view mirror, but not even
- 1:07:23actually the re view mirror. A video that was taken of the rear view
- 1:07:25mirror that's three months old. Um no, if you're on if you're on
- 1:07:30a straight road, yeah that works out okay because nothing's changing. For it's
- 1:07:35almost only slight or slightly vending road. But we're more along like the we're
- 1:07:41doing the highway one pc trip here. Um and so we really want to
- 1:07:45look out the front window when you're in big s, yes, if you're
- 1:07:49on a cliff side road where you could plunge your doom. So yes,
- 1:07:53you want to look out the front window. You want to look at the
- 1:07:56sort of forward commodity prices. Look look at look at the look at what
- 1:07:59the forward attracts are predicting for commodity prices. Um and uh not some laboriously
- 1:08:11slow government data collection process that like they'll claim to have for example, December
- 1:08:19data, that's not December. That's not the data of December. It's the
- 1:08:23data that arrived in December exactly. If you think about how good is the
- 1:08:26government at actually collecting data? Horrible? Yeah, yeah, So It's like,
- 1:08:30that's what I mean. It's like three months old with lots of areas.
- 1:08:32So if you had a hundred grand, didn't think making decisions of that
- 1:08:35basis was insane. So like, what should the average non rich person do
- 1:08:42on the cusp of what you're describing, which is economic catastrophe? Like,
- 1:08:45how do you protect yourself? UM? I think I think probably a smart
- 1:09:06move overall. And this this is guidance that I think applies across the ages.
- 1:09:13Is if there are companies in whose products you believe, UM, buy
- 1:09:17and hold the stock UM, and and when when when whenever else is panicking,
- 1:09:25then buy more and everyone else thinks that the stock is going to the
- 1:09:30moon and sell it, you know, sort of the buy UM low cell
- 1:09:36high. You're not an index fund guy, like you pick specific stocks.
- 1:09:44I that's my right. You have to say, like, what is the
- 1:09:49purpose of a company? Why should a company exist? Um? A company
- 1:09:53exists. It's a group of people collected together to provide products and services.
- 1:10:00It's not it's not a thing in and of itself. It's just a group
- 1:10:01of people. That's like, it's hard if it was just one person making
- 1:10:04You can make cupcakes yourself, but you can't make cars by yourself. Yes,
- 1:10:09so if so that so therefore, the value of a company is a
- 1:10:15function of the um quality of the products and services that it's that it has
- 1:10:20created and will create. And so if if if there's a company that you
- 1:10:24think, well, this company's got a lot of exciting products that I think
- 1:10:28are awesome. Um, the current products are good, that's probably a company
- 1:10:32to invest in, because that's the reason companies exist, to these goods and
- 1:10:36services that you like. And so um no, I mean there's some caveats
- 1:10:43here to make sure you're you're not like investing when when it's like the hottest
- 1:10:47thing, you know, because then it's going to have be at a temporary
- 1:10:50high. Um, but you know what when when when it's not sort of
- 1:10:56at a weirdly temporary high. I think just generally looking at a company and
- 1:10:59saying, well, I like the products of that company, and I like
- 1:11:00where they're going, and the management seems sensible that then I think buying and
- 1:11:05holding that stock is probably the right move. Um. I'm probably doing that
- 1:11:10with with a few companies. Um, that's what I'd recommend. Um.
- 1:11:16I think the on the I mean, I could really go on at length
- 1:11:20about the financial system and the stock market everything. Um, but the I
- 1:11:29mean, these days, I think we've gotten a little too far into the
- 1:11:31index passive fund world. Um, like somebody at some point it's got to
- 1:11:36make a decision. Um. You know, I couldn't agree more. Yeah.
- 1:11:43And by the way, there's like betting on both red and black.
- 1:11:46I mean it doesn't Yeah, well, betting on red and black in a
- 1:11:50casino situation where it could come up green, right, and you're you're bound
- 1:11:55to lose. Longer you play, the worst you do. Now that the
- 1:11:58stock market is is kind of the opposite of a casino, which is the
- 1:12:00longer you play, the more likely you are to succeed. If that historically
- 1:12:04has been the case and I think will continue to be the case. Um
- 1:12:09so uh, but it's really just important not to panic if you if you
- 1:12:15buy a stock and you read something terrible in the newspaper, do you want
- 1:12:17to just remember the news that's got a negative bias? Uh, Just and
- 1:12:21think about what other products of the company still sound. Does it have a
- 1:12:26good product roadmap? Do you believe in the management? If so, ignore
- 1:12:29what the precess or if the price drops when when the negative audicle, buy
- 1:12:31a stock. So here's here's my last question. And you mentioned the press.
- 1:12:35You've been the subject of press coverage for you know, like a long
- 1:12:38time, but very intense media coverage for the last year. Yeah. Sure,
- 1:12:45well it seems that way anyway. Um, how is your opinion of
- 1:12:50the press changed? Um? Well, so my first company way back in
- 1:13:05the day and the Precambrian era of the Internet or the Worldwide Web is up
- 1:13:13to We actually helped bring a number of the media organizations online. So most
- 1:13:15newspapers are not online. We helped bring hundreds of newspapers and magazines online for
- 1:13:20the first time. We added a trevenus amount of functionality to their websites with
- 1:13:26our software. The New York Times Company and night Rider were major investors and
- 1:13:31were on the board. I spent a lot of time in newsrooms, so
- 1:13:34I'm not unfamiliar with the media. I got to see it firsthand all the
- 1:13:41way back in nineteen ninety six, so it's been a while. Sort of
- 1:13:45traditional media certainly had revenue challenges because as online advertising is increased and it's much
- 1:13:55more measurable and much more sort of direct. You can say, like I
- 1:13:58spent this amount and about this this output like it's interactive, unlike say a
- 1:14:03newspaper or broadcast TV. UM, you're kind of guessing with the newspaper and
- 1:14:09broadcast TV. UM, where there's if if something's online, you can tell
- 1:14:14immediately that that person saw the ad and bought the product. That's that's very
- 1:14:18very immediate. So UM, and it's it's it's actually more effective if the
- 1:14:25advertising is customized to the individual, so the advertising is more likely to be
- 1:14:30irrelevant, whereas broadcast if if it's being shown to everyone, it's going to
- 1:14:33be irrelevant to most people. UM. The result of that has been a
- 1:14:40huge shift in advertising revenue from newspapers and TV to uh, you know,
- 1:14:47the Googles and facebooks of the world, and a tiny bit to Twitter.
- 1:14:51I think Twitter gets like one one percent of advertising revenue. It's quite tiny.
- 1:14:57UM. So the this is meant a shrinking pie obviously for most of
- 1:15:04the traditional media companies UM and made them more desperate to get cliques, to
- 1:15:12get to get you know, get attention. UM. And it just made
- 1:15:18them when when you know, when they were, when they're in a sort
- 1:15:21of desperate state, they will then tend to really push headlines that get the
- 1:15:28most cliques, whether those headlines are accurate or not. Um So, it's
- 1:15:31resulted in my view, I think I think most people would agree a less
- 1:15:39truthful, less accurate news um so because they just got to get a rise
- 1:15:45out of people. Um. And I think it's also increased the negativity of
- 1:15:50the news because I think we humans instinctually respond more to I think we have
- 1:15:58an instinctual negative which which kind of makes sense in that like if like let's
- 1:16:08say, like it's more important to remember where where was the lion or where
- 1:16:14was the tribe that wants to kill my tribe than where is the bushworth berries?
- 1:16:18Like one's like a permanent negative outcome and the other is like, well
- 1:16:23I might go hungry, So meaning like there's an asymmetry and um sort of
- 1:16:30involved asymmetry and negative versus positive stuff and and and also historically the negative stuff
- 1:16:38would have been quite approximate, like it would have been near represented a real
- 1:16:43danger to you as a person, um if you heard negative news, because
- 1:16:47historically, you know, like a few hundred years ago, we're not hearing
- 1:16:50about what negative things are happening on the other side of the world or on
- 1:16:54the other side of the country, we're only we're hearing about negative things in
- 1:16:57our village, things that could actually have a bad effect to you, whereas
- 1:17:01now we're hearing about I mean, the news very often seems to attempt to
- 1:17:05answer the question what is the worst thing that happened on Earth today? And
- 1:17:10we wonder why you said after reading that, you know, um, and
- 1:17:13then use the most inflammatory language, you know, because every day they got
- 1:17:18to sell, sell the advertising, even if it's it happened to be a
- 1:17:23slow newsday. Do you read any legacy media once? When I read a
- 1:17:30lot so UM. I mean, I really get most of my news from
- 1:17:39Twitter at this point, so it is the number one news news source I
- 1:17:45think in the world at this point. So, and thus all the more
- 1:17:53important that we strive to to be accurate. And it's not just a question
- 1:17:58of accuracy, but we also need to allow the people to develop the narratives
- 1:18:05that are of interest to them. So it's possible for UM news to be
- 1:18:11technically truthful, but not that, but they're still deciding what the narrative is,
- 1:18:17like, like let's say you want to um like let's say it took
- 1:18:21a photo of someone and they had a little zip Um. Now you could
- 1:18:26zoom in on the zip and make it look gigantic like Mount Vesuvius um,
- 1:18:30and it is still true that they have a ZiT It's just not the size
- 1:18:34of Mount Vesuvius. And they you know, it doesn't properly reflect their face.
- 1:18:40Their face is not one giant set. But you could you could say,
- 1:18:43like, well, it's true, but have they lied. They haven't.
- 1:18:47You know, they're just happened to zoom in on the ZiT um and
- 1:18:50not look at the rest of the face type of thing. So, um,
- 1:18:56I want to saying is that that choice of narrative is it is extremely
- 1:19:03important. And at the point in which if there's only like say, half
- 1:19:10a dozen editors in chief, or maybe even few of them, maybe it's
- 1:19:14only three or four that are deciding what the narrative is, what's gonna be
- 1:19:16on the front page, then um, you know that that that's that's a
- 1:19:25form of manipulation of public opinion, and I think the public often doesn't appreciate
- 1:19:28and it's perhaps the most pernicious of all. That's right, because it's the
- 1:19:30most subtle. Yeah, it's most subtle. They haven't said an untrue thing,
- 1:19:32They've just chosen. What they're going to focus on. A man called
- 1:19:35Douglas Mackie's facing ten years in prison for posting what he believed funny memes on
- 1:19:42Twitter. What do you make of that case. I don't know the details
- 1:19:46of that case. Um I've you know, I've read a little bit about
- 1:19:50it. You may you probably know more about it than I do. I
- 1:19:58certainly don't think so much go to prison for a long period of time for
- 1:20:02posting memes on Twitter, in which case we're gonna have a very full prison.
- 1:20:08Um so. And if if we're talking about election interference, well there's
- 1:20:15quite a few people that should be on trial for that, for much far
- 1:20:19more serious crimes than than memes on on Twitter, far more serious. Yes,
- 1:20:25the Twitter frials kind of showed that. I think, yes, um
- 1:20:30so, you know, unless unless the person really did I I said,
- 1:20:33I don't. I don't know. I don't everything that we're showing at the
- 1:20:38trial. Has he been convicted? Is this? Yes? He was so
- 1:20:43victed on Friday, unit unanimous jury verdict. Yes. What was the venue
- 1:20:51were city? Okay? It was a hug It was in Brooklyn, and
- 1:20:55it was a hung jury and hung jury. There's not unanimous, then well
- 1:20:59the judge prodded the jury, okay, and and they reached unanimous guilty verdict.
- 1:21:04It'll be appealed. So how many what percentage of your staff did you
- 1:21:08fire at Twitter? One of the great business stories of the year. I
- 1:21:12think we're about we're about twenty percent of the original size, So eighty percent
- 1:21:15left. Yes, so a lot of people voluntarily, sure, sure,
- 1:21:21but but it's eighty percent are gone from the day. So how do you
- 1:21:27run the company with only twenty percent of the staff. It turns out you
- 1:21:30don't need all that many people to run Twitter, but eighty percent, that's
- 1:21:34a lot um, yes of it. I mean, if you're not trying
- 1:21:40to run some sort of glorified activist organization with you don't care that much about
- 1:21:46censorship, then you can really let go of a lot of people. Turns
- 1:21:49out how many others without naming names, but how many I had dinner when
- 1:21:59somebody who runs a big gum but he recently said I'm really inspired by Euan
- 1:22:01And I said the free speech stuff he goes, no firing the staff stuff.
- 1:22:05Um, how many other CEOs have come to you um to talk about
- 1:22:13this? Um? You know, I spent a lot of time at work,
- 1:22:19so it's not like I'm meeting with lots of people. They see what
- 1:22:24I what actions I've taken? Um and UM. But I think we just
- 1:22:30had a situation at Twitter where it was absurdly overstaffed. You know, so
- 1:22:34it wasn't you know, like you look at say like, what does it
- 1:22:36really take to operate Twitter? Um? You know most of what we're talking
- 1:22:42about here is a group text service at scale? Um, Like how many
- 1:22:47people are really needed for that? You know? Um? And if you
- 1:22:51look at the you say, like what has been the product development over time
- 1:22:58with Twitter? And you're like, so, like you know, years versus
- 1:23:00product improvements, and it's like a pretty flat line. So what are they
- 1:23:03doing? You know, it took a year or to add an edit button
- 1:23:09that doesn't work most of the time. I mean, this is I feel
- 1:23:12like if there's a comedy situation here. You know, you're not making cars.
- 1:23:17You know, it's very difficult to make cars or get rockets orbit,
- 1:23:23so UM, you know, the real question is like how did it get
- 1:23:27so absurdly overstaffed? This is insane? UM? So any right, that's
- 1:23:32and it's clearly working. In fact, I think it's working better than ever.
- 1:23:36It's about we've increased the responsiveness of the system by in some cases over
- 1:23:43eighty percent. The there's a core piece of code for generating the timeline which
- 1:23:50is run literally billions of times a day. We've cut that code from seven
- 1:23:56hundred thousand lines to seventy thousand lines run. Yeah, and and the code
- 1:24:01efficiency by over eighty percent, like meaning that how much computer is necessary to
- 1:24:06render the timeline by eighty percent. I mean this is a you know,
- 1:24:12in four four or five months, we've we've increased the video time from um
- 1:24:17roughly two minutes or best case ten minutes to now two hours, so you
- 1:24:23can put to ours video on Twitter. Will ASO going to be increasing that
- 1:24:26to where there's no no meaningful limit. We've increased the tweet length from total
- 1:24:31forty characters to four thousand, will be increasing that to where there's gain no
- 1:24:35meaningful length to if you want to post a novel on Twitter is Sue'll do
- 1:24:39it. Um And you know we as as everyone saw on Friday, we
- 1:24:46open source the super embarrassing recommendation algorithm, which we will are taking apart and
- 1:24:51invest rating, which is exactly what I hope they would do, um and
- 1:24:56pointing out all the nonsense. Um. And we're gonna open so once more.
- 1:25:00Um and we're going to subject to public public review. We're also going
- 1:25:08to get criticized line because people will point out all of the foolish things that
- 1:25:12are out that that are happening in the code. But then we'll fix it.
- 1:25:15We'll fix it fast and in full public view. UM And I think
- 1:25:19that's the kind of thing that that owns the public trust. You know,
- 1:25:24if if if because like don't take my word for it, this is we
- 1:25:28you can literally read the code, and you can read what people say about
- 1:25:30the code. Um and and you can see the improvements that we make,
- 1:25:34and you can see we'll see the like in real time live see see see
- 1:25:41it get better. UM. So my prediction is that this I would be
- 1:25:46surprised if this does not lead the public to think, Okay, this this
- 1:25:50is something that I can trust. Um. I mean I think far more
- 1:25:56trust trust way than say other social media opens thes that have some mysterious black
- 1:26:00box that they refuse to show the show how it works. What are they
- 1:26:05trying to hide? What are these just not good things? Yeah, if
- 1:26:11they had to have somebody to hide one and they show it, but there
- 1:26:15it's a proprietary business secret. Yeah. Sure. So so we're trying to
- 1:26:27make make Twitter the most trusted place on the internet, that the where you
- 1:26:30can get the you know, the least untrustworthy place on the Internet. I
- 1:26:35don't think anyone should trust the internet, but maybe we can make Twitter the
- 1:26:40least untrustworthy. Um. And in a way you can see a wide range
- 1:26:45of political opinions, so including ones you disagree with. I think people should
- 1:26:49be exposed to things they disagree with. It shouldn't just be continuous self reinforcement
- 1:26:54of like what you know. So, um, that's the goal, and
- 1:27:00I think we're making some good progress in that direction. I feel good about
- 1:27:05where things are going, and we definitely want to have things as as sort
- 1:27:10of cleaned up as possible before the elections. If there's any manipulation that we're
- 1:27:16aware of, make that, make the public aware of that, and just
- 1:27:20uh, like I said, try to get the truth to the people as
- 1:27:29best we can.