Latest / Simply Bitcoin / HUGE FIRM: The Bitcoin cycle is BROKEN, $150,000 is coming in 2026! | EP 1393

Transcript

HUGE FIRM: The Bitcoin cycle is BROKEN, $150,000 is coming in 2026! | EP 1393 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  While most people are convinced Bitcoin just entered a bear
• 0:04
  market, Wall Street has been saying something completely
• 0:09
  different this week. Bernstein, an $829 billion firm,
• 0:13
  just declared the end of the Bitcoin four year cycle, and
• 0:17
  they even made a huge 20/26/2027 and beyond price prediction.
• 0:22
  That kind of surprised me, I'm not going to lie.
• 0:24
  So what does Wall Street know? Can we even trust their
• 0:28
  predictions at this point? Do we even want I want to listen
• 0:30
  to the predictions is probably the better question, but what do
• 0:33
  they know? What do they see on the horizon
• 0:36
  that is fundamentally shifting the Bitcoin market, the Bitcoin
• 0:40
  price structure? Well, we got we got some news
• 0:43
  for you guys. Of course, I'm not alone.
• 0:45
  I do have Chris Alemo with me today, our friendly neighborhood
• 0:50
  Bitcoiner and let's just dive straight into it.
• 0:53
  So here is the headline from Bitcoin Magazine and it goes
• 0:58
  Bitcoin price briefly surges past 92 K as quote Bitcoin
• 1:03
  breaks the four year cycle. The Bitcoin price jumped past
• 1:06
  92,000 over the weekend as Bernstein and JP Morgan signal a
• 1:10
  longer term bullish outlook. So again, last week, as I was
• 1:16
  telling you guys, JP Morgan was saying, hey, we're going to 170K
• 1:20
  in 2026. Now we have Bernstein, another
• 1:23
  bank, another Wall Street hedge fund S kind of company saying
• 1:28
  something very similar, 150K. But let's look into what their
• 1:32
  reasons are. And I'm actually going to post
• 1:35
  over to the the actual source material here, which is from
• 1:40
  Matthew Siegel, who is over at Vanek.
• 1:43
  And I guess this as a client note, I tried to find the
• 1:47
  official source of this, but it might have just been if you are
• 1:51
  a client of Bernstein and then they give you, you know, the
• 1:53
  private note here. But here is kind of the TLDR,
• 1:56
  the short of it Bernstein quote. In view of recent market
• 2:00
  correction, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the
• 2:03
  four year pattern, the cycle peaking every four years and
• 2:07
  it's now in an elongated bull cycle with more sticky
• 2:10
  institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.
• 2:14
  Despite a roughly 30% Bitcoin correction, we have seen less
• 2:18
  than 5% outflows via ETFs. That's right, even though we
• 2:22
  make fun of the boomers all the time, you know the boomers
• 2:25
  buying the ETFs aren't panicking.
• 2:27
  In reality, the panic is coming from retail.
• 2:30
  All the Bitcoiners freaking out about a four year cycle, all the
• 2:33
  Bitcoiners kind of being very mad about not seeing 2025 games.
• 2:38
  I think that's where most of the panic is coming from, which is
• 2:40
  very interesting that the real true blue die hard Bitcoin
• 2:45
  believers are the ones that are now being bearish.
• 2:48
  And I've been having this conversation on the show with
• 2:50
  you guys for the last couple of weeks.
• 2:51
  You know, even Nico and I are arguing about it.
• 2:53
  Even Luke was getting a little bearish.
• 2:55
  Now as of this morning, I can update you guys.
• 2:58
  He is starting to feel a little more bullish.
• 3:00
  Well, guess what guys, I've stayed stupidly bullish
• 3:03
  throughout this whole thing and you guys have been trolling me
• 3:06
  about it. But hey, one of us, this will be
• 3:08
  right here and I'm I'm going to lean towards me.
• 3:11
  You know, I confirm my own bias. I think I am right here anyways,
• 3:14
  we are moving our 2026 EI don't know what the E is.
• 3:17
  Maybe that's end of year Bitcoin price target to 100.
• 3:20
  And 50 year. Yeah, OK.
• 3:23
  So they're moving their end of year 2026 Bitcoin price target
• 3:26
  to 150K, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027, end
• 3:31
  of year AT200K. And our long term 2033 end of
• 3:36
  year Bitcoin price target remains roughly $1 million.
• 3:40
  Now, you know, obviously 150K by next year doesn't really make me
• 3:48
  get all kind of like, you know, hyped up about it because I was
• 3:52
  expecting that this year. I'm still holding out for Santa
• 3:55
  rally. You know, I, I'm, I still got
• 3:57
  what 3 weeks to be right on a Santa rally.
• 4:01
  We are starting to see the price kind of pick up.
• 4:03
  I think we might be kind of oscillating on this new trend
• 4:07
  line that we hit around 8080 K. It's starting to kind of set up
• 4:11
  this higher low or sorry lower highs and it seems to be
• 4:16
  following that. Now we are kind of oscillating
• 4:18
  around there. And I think a kind of number
• 4:21
  that we'll be watching in the short term is if we can break
• 4:24
  above like 93 K, then it seems like we're we're kind of back.
• 4:28
  If we break above one O 8, I think it's completely back.
• 4:32
  All bets are off the table. But again, 150 K 2026, 200 K
• 4:37
  2027. So I mean, you know, 50 KA year
• 4:41
  doesn't sound that good considering what we've all loved
• 4:45
  about Bitcoin, just a crazy price movement.
• 4:48
  But what is different now is it does seem to be breaking away
• 4:53
  from this four year cycle. I know as of now, the four year
• 4:56
  cycle is completely intact. You know, October 2025126K top
• 5:02
  it dumped, but I'm not seeing, you know, 5080% corrections on
• 5:07
  the table. To me, that just doesn't make
• 5:09
  sense when you see what is going on behind the scenes.
• 5:12
  And it's exactly what Bearstein said.
• 5:14
  There's an unlimited institutional buy right now,
• 5:17
  guys, and I don't know if you guys saw, but Bitcoin Nina is
• 5:20
  happening right now. It's maybe maybe Chris remembers
• 5:23
  what Nina is. Bitcoin Middle East.
• 5:26
  Mana is. Oh yeah.
• 5:28
  It's Middle East and I forget what a is.
• 5:31
  Maybe it's like N Asia, I forget.
• 5:34
  Anyways, there is was an interesting, interesting clip
• 5:37
  going around of Sailor essentially saying, hey, I've
• 5:39
  talked to basically every sovereign wealth fund since I've
• 5:42
  been out here, hundreds of hedge managers and they're all
• 5:46
  positioning themselves to get into Bitcoin.
• 5:49
  And I think, oh, Middle East and North Africa, there we go.
• 5:52
  And I think that is sort of the signal here that the
• 5:56
  conversation has fundamentally shifted around Bitcoin.
• 6:00
  It's no longer just a speculative asset.
• 6:02
  It's no longer just this thing that you want to ignore.
• 6:05
  It has become, I don't want to say structurally important, but
• 6:10
  it has become a macro asset. Again.
• 6:12
  I've been saying this for the last couple of weeks and the
• 6:14
  more data that comes out, the more it seems to be proving that
• 6:18
  exact fact that Bitcoin is in the big leagues now, which does
• 6:21
  mean that Bitcoin will move with macro movements, not necessarily
• 6:25
  just a four year cycle. It's definitely not being run by
• 6:28
  retail anymore. The institutions are wholly in
• 6:31
  control and sailors on stage at Bitcoin MENA right now
• 6:35
  essentially saying that exact same thing.
• 6:37
  He's like the institutions are totally in control right now.
• 6:40
  And I know a lot of people when they hear that they're like, oh,
• 6:43
  bitcoins been Co opted. I don't think that's the case.
• 6:46
  I think they're just they're able to kind of move the price
• 6:49
  right now. And if you guys watch what's
• 6:50
  happening on the Bitcoin price over the weekend, the, the, the
• 6:55
  leverage is getting whipsawed right now.
• 6:57
  There was AI think it was around $100 million of shorts over the
• 7:03
  weekend. And I'm sorry, $100 million of
• 7:06
  shorts and longs liquidated over the weekend.
• 7:08
  So it really is playing out into this idea that all the leverage
• 7:12
  is getting taken out of the system right now.
• 7:14
  All the leverage traders are getting wrecked.
• 7:17
  And then we have the JP Morgan stuff.
• 7:19
  That's the new wrinkle. They're coming into space.
• 7:21
  They're launching products. It really makes you think that
• 7:24
  the Wall Street games are being played right now on Bitcoin.
• 7:28
  Bitcoin is the battlefield. And I wouldn't be wanting to be
• 7:31
  trading right now. I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be
• 7:33
  sitting here, you know, selling out so that I can buy lower.
• 7:36
  To me, that's probably the riskiest thing you can be doing
• 7:39
  right now. Again, the tried and true, you
• 7:42
  just keep stacking, storing your Bitcoin in cold storage.
• 7:45
  This is how you win currently, because we are in uncharted
• 7:48
  territory. We are in unknowns right now.
• 7:50
  No one knows what's going to happen.
• 7:53
  But it does seem to look like Bitcoin is not necessarily
• 7:58
  playing out exactly. In the past and since 2024,
• 8:03
  we've seen a lot of kind of, you know, all of our models being
• 8:06
  broken again. I've been I've been laying them
• 8:07
  out recently all time high. Before the halving, 2025 wasn't
• 8:12
  parabolic. As of now, if things stay the
• 8:14
  same, it's going to be a negative year.
• 8:16
  It's going to be a red year. No longer 3 green, one red, it's
• 8:20
  2 green, one red. And who knows what's happened in
• 8:23
  the year after. So it does seem like as the
• 8:28
  institutions finally get into Bitcoin, they, they're
• 8:31
  fundamentally shifting the the market in Bitcoin, obviously
• 8:35
  being led by the ETFs, also being led by nation states.
• 8:39
  And of course, the new wrinkle, which is sovereign wealth funds
• 8:42
  acquiring Bitcoin. And they're going super hard.
• 8:44
  They're super bullish on SOB on Bitcoin from the sovereign
• 8:48
  wealth fund angle. And they're all saying the same
• 8:50
  exact thing. We are holding this thing long
• 8:52
  term. This is becoming a fundamental
• 8:56
  asset, asset or money that you want to be holding.
• 8:58
  So I I I always argue and I've been arguing.
• 9:01
  It does seem like the the game has fundamentally changed right
• 9:04
  now and I'm totally here for it. I know a lot of people are like,
• 9:08
  oh, you know, Wall Street's Co opting Bitcoin, they've taken
• 9:10
  over Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not what I thought it
• 9:14
  was separation of money and state.
• 9:16
  Now that all the banks are getting in the Bitcoin and I
• 9:18
  just keep kind of going with like the classic how Finney
• 9:21
  view. It's like everyone kind of knew
• 9:24
  that this was going to happen this way.
• 9:26
  I mean, the, the classic quote of Bitcoin will be used today as
• 9:30
  it or in the future as it is today.
• 9:33
  Very rarely from individual to individual.
• 9:36
  It's going to be from institution to institution.
• 9:39
  The base layer is starting to build out to be kind of this
• 9:43
  international sediment layer and and if you are stacking Bitcoin
• 9:47
  right now, that does kind of position you as being, you know,
• 9:50
  one of these high net worth individuals in 20-30 forty years
• 9:54
  high-powered understanding what's going on in the economic
• 9:58
  base layer. So it is very interesting time
• 10:00
  right now. Now I know the news, you know,
• 10:02
  there's a lot of good news, but the price hasn't really been
• 10:04
  moving. So everyone's just really like
• 10:06
  what what is going on? Can we even trust these Wall
• 10:09
  Street banks and hedge funds coming into Bitcoin?
• 10:12
  Can we trust their price prediction?
• 10:14
  What do they know that we don't? Part of me is really on the side
• 10:18
  that I think there's a lot of conversations behind the scenes
• 10:21
  that are that are really kind of building these Bitcoin price
• 10:25
  predictions. I think they're seeing things to
• 10:28
  kind of in make them believe that 2026 isn't going to be a
• 10:32
  down year. I'm sure they'll be some
• 10:33
  volatility, but I'm starting to think, hey, up and to the right
• 10:37
  slow grind. It's going to kind of bore us to
• 10:40
  death. It's already been boring us to
• 10:41
  death this year. And I do have a good joke
• 10:44
  Alasari tweet about the four year cycle that that I do want
• 10:47
  to talk about because I I think it fits perfectly into this.
• 10:50
  Just kind of reframing our mental models about what's going
• 10:53
  on. But before I do that, Chris,
• 10:55
  what's your thoughts on this? I know you haven't been on the
• 10:58
  show in a couple of weeks, so maybe you want to rehash the JP
• 11:01
  Morgan stuff, what we're seeing from Bernstein.
• 11:04
  Do you think this kind of perspective that the
• 11:07
  institutions are now kind of really the ones controlling the
• 11:10
  Bitcoin price? And I don't mean necessarily
• 11:12
  controlling it, you know, suppressing it, all that stuff.
• 11:15
  They're, they're just, I think really looking for a good
• 11:19
  position to get into Bitcoin. So that's kind of where my heads
• 11:22
  out right now. But anyways, Chris, thanks for
• 11:24
  coming on. What's your thoughts on all
• 11:26
  this? I think a fool and his Bitcoin
• 11:29
  are parted when he uses leverage.
• 11:30
  So it's very interesting whenever we see the 100K or the
• 11:34
  100 million of longs and shorts wrecked, I know it's it always
• 11:37
  like it's like clockwork. You can set your watch to this.
• 11:40
  It's like, oh wow, a bunch of longs are building up.
• 11:42
  All of a sudden, you know, it drops, the shorts are very
• 11:45
  happy. And then all of a sudden the
• 11:45
  shorts get blown out by like, you know, rebounding up.
• 11:49
  So and it's always funny too when like it drops and then the
• 11:52
  guys re put on positions of longs and then it drops again
• 11:55
  and they put on positions of longs and it drops again.
• 11:57
  And the inverse is done with the shorts.
• 11:58
  What is it, Gareth? Gareth Solomon or whatever his
• 12:02
  name is, Gareth, whatever, he just kept like shorting Bitcoin
• 12:05
  and just kept ticking higher and higher and higher.
• 12:08
  So I think a fool in leverage is not a good thing in Bitcoin.
• 12:11
  Not financial advice, but I think that the advice of staying
• 12:14
  humble and stacking sats makes the most sense, Opie.
• 12:18
  It seems to be like there's warring factions and we've been
• 12:20
  talking about this for weeks. We've been talking about this
• 12:22
  basically since the ETFs launched that like, oh,
• 12:26
  institutions are here And like, you know, is it is it Bitcoin
• 12:29
  going to fail or fall captive to institutions, to governments, to
• 12:33
  banks? Or is it going to remain the
• 12:35
  decentralized cypherpunk libertarian ethos?
• 12:38
  And I think both things can be true.
• 12:40
  I know Matt Odell, a good buddy of mine, has been talking about
• 12:43
  this for years. There's like the Lightning
• 12:45
  Network that's like you can ZAP payments.
• 12:47
  You can open up lightning pounds with your friends and peers.
• 12:49
  And then there's like the corporate lightning network
• 12:52
  where it's only like the big companies, like, you know, I
• 12:55
  won't disparage any of them, but you know, the big names of these
• 12:58
  companies that basically they'll Only Connect with liquidity,
• 13:01
  that of companies that are like verified or have large enough
• 13:03
  liquidity networks. So there might be a network of,
• 13:06
  you know, hey, the large corporate lightning network
• 13:08
  versus the pleb retail oriented lightning network.
• 13:11
  And what I'm trying to get to is basically the biggest portion of
• 13:15
  Bitcoin or the big, the thing that makes the most sense in
• 13:17
  Bitcoin is ownership. And what do we mean by that?
• 13:19
  When you buy Bitcoin and you're leaving on the exchange, who
• 13:22
  technically owns it? Yes, you have the claim to it,
• 13:25
  but the exchange themselves technically owns it.
• 13:28
  When you buy Bitcoin and you take it in self custody, you
• 13:30
  know, as we recommend with Bitcoin, well and you know, put
• 13:32
  it on a bit key and stuff like that.
• 13:34
  And when you have the Bitcoin and you don't take self custody
• 13:37
  of it, you are forfeiting that ownership to the bank.
• 13:41
  It is exactly the same thing in the Fiat economy.
• 13:43
  So when if you get a paycheck from a Fiat job and you leave
• 13:46
  your cash or your, you know, whatever it is, let's say you
• 13:49
  have $1000 in the bank as an example.
• 13:50
  You are technically have claimed to that $1000, but the bank owns
• 13:55
  it, meaning that we see all the time, we see it in Lebanon, we
• 13:58
  see it in Sri Lanka, we saw it in Ukraine.
• 14:00
  We've seen it endless, Argentina, Brazil, you name it,
• 14:04
  countless country when it is your money.
• 14:06
  And then they basically the bank closes and has a banking holiday
• 14:09
  and then they devalue 12:50 and the bank keeps the notes and
• 14:13
  they give you either the new printed currency or whatever.
• 14:15
  Or, you know, we've seen rappers in 2021 and 2022 being like, yo,
• 14:19
  I'm trying to shoot a music video.
• 14:20
  I want to take out 100 GS. And the banks like, yeah, we
• 14:23
  don't have that money to give you and you have to request it
• 14:25
  for us. Why are you taking up this
• 14:27
  money? What do you want to do with this
• 14:28
  money? And they can approve or deny
• 14:30
  you. It's because they have ownership
• 14:31
  of your money. You have claim on it, but you
• 14:33
  don't have ownership of it and that's what makes Bitcoin such a
• 14:36
  great asset. You don't want to forfeit your
• 14:38
  ownership. You don't want to buy an ETF.
• 14:40
  You don't want to buy these Bitcoin treasury companies.
• 14:42
  You don't want to buy Bitcoin and leave it at an institution.
• 14:45
  You know in the best case scenario you're buying Bitcoin
• 14:47
  peer-to-peer with non KYC SAT's. You're taking itself custody and
• 14:51
  this is something that will grow and appreciate over time.
• 14:54
  And I know, you know, a lot of the the talking heads are like,
• 14:58
  oh, well, there's dirty Bitcoin, there's clean Bitcoin, there's
• 15:00
  green Bitcoin, there's normal Bitcoin, there's criminal
• 15:03
  Bitcoin, there's non criminal Bitcoin.
• 15:05
  And you know, that's always like fighting for control of the
• 15:08
  narrative. And obviously on this show, we
• 15:10
  are trying to opt for the plebs. We're trying to opt for retail.
• 15:13
  We're trying to advocate for you.
• 15:15
  Yes, there's a lot of responsibility that comes with
• 15:16
  this. Yes, it is more difficult, but
• 15:19
  you know, as my buddy Matt Adela says, if you could drive a car,
• 15:21
  if you can raise a kid, if you could, you know, get up in the
• 15:24
  morning, make sure that you're on work on time.
• 15:26
  Like these are things to take responsibility and yes, they're
• 15:28
  more difficult than than alternatives, but at the end of
• 15:31
  the day, like take responsibility for your money,
• 15:34
  take responsibility for your family, take responsibility for
• 15:36
  your legacy, buy Bitcoin and take it in self custody.
• 15:39
  I'm sorry sound like a broken record.
• 15:41
  I hope we'll start for the long rant there, Opti, but I'm just
• 15:43
  trying to outlay the point of Bitcoin and what makes it so
• 15:46
  important and don't forfeit custody to these big
• 15:48
  institutions. That's how Bitcoin remains
• 15:50
  decentralized remains in retail hands.
• 15:52
  That's how you retain the power by running a node self custody
• 15:55
  Bitcoin. Yeah, I'll just I'm repeating
• 15:57
  myself in different ways, but I hope that was a good rant there.
• 15:59
  Yeah, no, no, I mean, I, I think at at times I see people in the
• 16:03
  chat constantly. Well, not constantly anymore,
• 16:06
  but people will say in the show it's like, hey, you guys should
• 16:09
  kind of rehash some of the the Bitcoin stuff, like the one O 1
• 16:13
  stuff on this show. And you know, as much as I'm
• 16:17
  always telling them I'm like, look, this is a new show, so we
• 16:20
  we got to kind of keep you updated on what's going on
• 16:23
  recently. I think it is always important
• 16:25
  to kind of go back to the basics, why we do what we do.
• 16:29
  You know why this is important because there are new people
• 16:32
  that come on the show or rather come in the chat and and see
• 16:35
  what this is about. Maybe the title kind of got them
• 16:37
  interested and they really don't understand what the basics are,
• 16:42
  what we're trying to do. You know what the point of this
• 16:45
  movement is until you kind of go back to the basics and you kind
• 16:48
  of rehash the memes over and over and over again so that it
• 16:52
  really sinks in. But I do want to hit on what you
• 16:55
  said because I have been kind of thinking recently, and I've been
• 16:58
  saying it on the show, you know, there's been a lot of, I would
• 17:02
  argue, distractions this year on like where the attacks are
• 17:06
  coming at Bitcoin, whether this is an attack or this is an
• 17:09
  attack. And I think you laid it out the
• 17:11
  best. So like, this is what my kind of
• 17:13
  view has been the last couple of weeks.
• 17:14
  Like the real attack is coming from Wall Street.
• 17:17
  And it's not necessarily this frontal attack.
• 17:21
  It's not like we hate you anymore.
• 17:23
  It's really more of like trying to incentivize you to give up
• 17:26
  your keys to Bitcoin with the shiny bit Wall Street products,
• 17:30
  you know, Wall Street Bitcoin products.
• 17:32
  And it's like, hey, look, I see what you're saying, man, I
• 17:36
  really like what you're doing with this Bitcoin thing.
• 17:38
  So here, take this product from me.
• 17:41
  It'll make your life that much more easy and you get all of the
• 17:45
  benefits when in reality you're you're giving up the biggest
• 17:48
  benefit, which is your keys and your actual, you know, control
• 17:52
  of this Bitcoin thing. And I think this is where we're
• 17:57
  starting to see this divide right now.
• 17:59
  You know, a lot of our friends on Twitter, we're very big on
• 18:02
  Bitcoin treasury companies. I think we might have seen the
• 18:05
  ICO boom kind of go through the Bitcoin treasury route because
• 18:10
  we didn't really see much in the Bitcoin space, but we did see a
• 18:12
  lot of Bitcoin treasury companies go up astronomical.
• 18:16
  I know I was trolling all year. Like man, I should just got all
• 18:19
  in on MicroStrategy. And at this point I'm like,
• 18:22
  maybe it was a smart move not to do that.
• 18:24
  But I really like the framing that a lot of people have been
• 18:26
  saying it's captured Bitcoin and then Bitcoin in self custody.
• 18:31
  Like I think that's really the fight going on right now and
• 18:33
  it's going to be going on for a lot longer than we probably want
• 18:36
  to admit. But anyways, let me let's pull
• 18:39
  up this thread here from Joe Kalasari.
• 18:42
  And I, I know Joe is Chris's friend.
• 18:45
  He hasn't been completely right all year.
• 18:47
  Let's see what the Bitcoin price is doing.
• 18:50
  But I think this is kind of a really good framework as we
• 18:54
  obviously are coming towards the end of the year.
• 18:57
  Everyone's trying to understand what's going on next year
• 19:01
  because let's let's, let's let's be completely honest here.
• 19:04
  I know sometimes you guys in the chat are always saying like,
• 19:07
  man, can we not talk about the Bitcoin price?
• 19:09
  There's other things going on. Well, you know, Bitcoin is an
• 19:13
  economic asset like this is economics point blank.
• 19:17
  And you want, you need some kind of you need to have at least a
• 19:22
  road map of where things are going so that you can plan
• 19:25
  correctly in economic terms. And so This is why I think we've
• 19:29
  been going through this idea right now is like, are we still
• 19:32
  in a four year cycle? Did did the four year cycle
• 19:35
  break? Are we in completely uncharted
• 19:38
  waters? So you kind of can at at the
• 19:40
  very least have two different plans, maybe one that plays out
• 19:44
  and one that doesn't, but at least you are prepared for
• 19:47
  what's coming. So I really enjoyed this thread
• 19:49
  here from Joe and he goes cycle Bros would argue Bitcoin is just
• 19:52
  another four year cycle because it's suffered A pullback and
• 19:55
  their Candlestick astrology tells them a -50% decline is
• 19:59
  eminent. The problem is that one, a
• 20:02
  sample size of three prior cycles is statistically
• 20:04
  insignificant and not useful in forecasting, and two, the
• 20:07
  current price action is comparable with any prior cycle.
• 20:11
  I, I totally agree with this right here.
• 20:13
  Like, you know, I, I know Joe, Joe Kalasari sometimes is, is, I
• 20:18
  don't know for lack of better terms, a little hyperbolic and
• 20:22
  and kind of a Dick on Twitter. Like I'm not gonna lie, but I
• 20:25
  think he's got a point here. Anyways, he got the same cycle
• 20:28
  Bros who said Bitcoin would explode this year.
• 20:30
  Just like prior cycles have been dead wrong.
• 20:33
  I've had the target yearly high of 130 K since January of 2025.
• 20:37
  Because this data is everywhere for those willing to look.
• 20:40
  Mature assets perform differently from immature ones.
• 20:43
  The availability of hedging vehicles derivatives completely
• 20:46
  changes market structure. They reduce volatility and
• 20:50
  create a grinding price structure, not explosive
• 20:53
  parabolic moves. This is precisely what we've
• 20:56
  seen since nearly early 2024. This is what I've been kind of
• 21:00
  saying as the year progressed, yes, I was completely wrong in
• 21:03
  the beginning of the year. Now as kind of I got more data,
• 21:06
  I'm like this. This is what makes the most
• 21:08
  sense to me is, is this last tweet going further?
• 21:11
  He goes, of course we didn't get identical cycles when the asset
• 21:14
  market has grown 150X plus. Simply, Bitcoin today is
• 21:19
  incompatible with the market structure of 2013 or 2017.
• 21:22
  The 2013 peak was $1172.00 with a $12 billion market cap is not
• 21:29
  compared to the 2017 peak of 19.6 K with a $320 billion
• 21:34
  market cap as Bitcoin entered the mainstream public
• 21:37
  consciousness. The 2021 peak of 69 K and 1.1
• 21:41
  trillion market cap was a stimmy check driven bubble that was
• 21:44
  ended by the Fed jacking up interest rates in a crypto
• 21:47
  contagion caused by FTX, GB, TC, Alameda, 3 Arrows, etcetera,
• 21:51
  etcetera. In other words, the broader the
• 21:54
  broader macro environment, not the mythical cycle drove this
• 21:58
  decline. Now I, I know that's kind of a
• 22:00
  hard pill to swallow, but I, I think, I think I kind of agree
• 22:04
  with this that when Bitcoin kind of hit that 70K, it did kind of
• 22:09
  enter mainstream consciousness. I know it didn't really feel
• 22:12
  like it, but it is starting to kind of move in a broader macro
• 22:17
  movement right now, which is why you see all of the macro moves,
• 22:21
  the tariffs and all this stuff really affect Bitcoin is because
• 22:24
  it is part of someone's bigger macro portfolio.
• 22:28
  It's no longer just retail driven anyways.
• 22:30
  At prior cycle peak, 57 percent, 80% and 90% of the 21 million
• 22:35
  Bitcoin supply had been mined. Now we're past 19,000,000 coins,
• 22:38
  or over 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, owned and in
• 22:43
  the market. Annual new supply after the 2024
• 22:46
  halving is roughly 164,000 Bitcoin, or roughly a .8%
• 22:51
  inflation. Earlier halvings chopped
• 22:53
  inflation from high single digits to mid single digits.
• 22:56
  Now they shave off basis points from a nearly 6 float, whatever
• 23:00
  that is. It's not the same quote four
• 23:02
  year pump mechanism. Again, I think this is totally
• 23:06
  true. Structures of the market is
• 23:08
  unrecognizable versus old cycles 2013 and 2017 zero US spot
• 23:13
  Bitcoin ETFs 2025 of course US spot ETFs hold more than 1.4
• 23:17
  million Bitcoin or roughly 6% of the supply.
• 23:21
  That's eight times annual post having issuance sitting in
• 23:25
  regulated vehicles that didn't exist in prior cycles.
• 23:28
  CME crypto future and options hit record notional open
• 23:31
  interest of 39 billion in 2025. For comparison, in 2020 the high
• 23:35
  was around $1.47 billion in open interest.
• 23:39
  This completely changes the market structure and how the
• 23:42
  asset will perform. We've gone from almost no
• 23:44
  derivatives plus no ETF to a market where ETF and future
• 23:48
  flows dwarf minor supply. Why would the market continue to
• 23:51
  perform in the mythical four year cycle given this material
• 23:54
  change in the market? And of course, you know Bitcoin
• 23:58
  now trades like a macro asset, not a having horoscope.
• 24:02
  I love I love the trolling and it's great.
• 24:05
  Since 2020 bitcoins relationship with equity slip positive and it
• 24:08
  stayed that way. 30 day correlation with the S&P 500 now
• 24:12
  frequently run roughly .5 to .7. Plus study since the 2020 flu
• 24:20
  flu crisis shows S&P return significantly affecting Bitcoin
• 24:25
  during high volume period. All that makes sense.
• 24:28
  It's a widely held derivative exhibitors heavy assets,
• 24:30
  increasingly priced off liquidity rates and risk
• 24:33
  sentiment. And here's the last one.
• 24:35
  But Joe it sold off in October, just like the Reddit post said
• 24:38
  it would at the end of the cycle.
• 24:40
  The fact that Bitcoin sold off in October alongside A broader
• 24:43
  decline in risk assets tells you nothing about a magical four
• 24:47
  year cycle. It simply suggests that bitcoins
• 24:50
  correlation with equities with which also sold off remains
• 24:54
  intact. Nothing in this thread claims
• 24:56
  Bitcoin can't sell off or that it can't drop further from here.
• 24:59
  Hold on, jeez. The point is that it's
• 25:03
  intellectually lazy to argue it's selling off because of a
• 25:05
  day on the calendar and it just goes on.
• 25:08
  But essentially, look, I, I, I don't mean to read on you guys
• 25:13
  that much this early on the show, but I think there was a
• 25:16
  lot of sauce in this of kind of reframing where we are.
• 25:19
  Obviously 2025 is like bitcoins last year.
• 25:22
  No one knew what was going on. We all thought we did.
• 25:25
  We all basically got it completely wrong.
• 25:28
  And so if we're still working off old paradigms, I think it
• 25:31
  kind of behooves us, I said it behooves us to update our mental
• 25:36
  models of where we're going, what is actually affecting the
• 25:39
  markets, who's actually in the market.
• 25:41
  And the closer we get to the end of the year, the more it becomes
• 25:45
  obvious to anyone that really pays attention to the news is
• 25:50
  the institutions are trying to come in in full force.
• 25:53
  And it really is a be careful what you wish for a moment,
• 25:56
  because we always thought this was going to happen, but I think
• 25:59
  we didn't believe that they would change the Bitcoin four
• 26:02
  year cycle. But again, it's kind of like law
• 26:04
  is a big number. You, you forget how little
• 26:07
  capital we all actually had in Bitcoin until these institutions
• 26:11
  come in and buy billions of dollars, you know, in single
• 26:15
  chunks, hundreds of millions of dollars at a time.
• 26:19
  We're we're just dude, we're just sitting here enjoying the
• 26:21
  ride at this point. I know the ride hasn't been that
• 26:23
  fun this year, but we're no longer in control.
• 26:27
  I, I think this is where a lot of the kind of anger is coming
• 26:31
  from on Bitcoin Twitter is, is a lot of people that been in
• 26:34
  Bitcoin are probably sad that the institutions came in,
• 26:38
  dwarfed all of our buys. And now we're just kind of
• 26:41
  sitting back and just being like, well, what do we do now?
• 26:44
  But you know, there used to be some stuff to argue about.
• 26:47
  There used to be things to do, and now we're just kind of
• 26:49
  waiting for people to scoop up a lot of coin.
• 26:52
  There's been no retail in Bitcoin.
• 26:54
  It seems like Main Street doesn't care about Bitcoin.
• 26:57
  Everyone's broke right now. There's no money to get in.
• 27:00
  The only people with money are the institutions.
• 27:03
  And I think they're playing some games so that they can stack
• 27:05
  their bags and then soon enough they'll probably start ripping
• 27:09
  it anyways off. Do we need one minute charge?
• 27:11
  Lol no not today. OK not today.
• 27:15
  Damn Joe TLDR anyways Chris, maybe Chris can do a a short of
• 27:21
  that. Do you think Joe's right?
• 27:23
  Have you had any conversations with Joe Offair?
• 27:25
  Because because I know you guys are partnered in doing some
• 27:28
  stuff behind the scenes. I haven't talked to Joe in a in
• 27:31
  a minute. We've we've kind of just been
• 27:32
  busy doing a bunch of stuff. I know he just had another kid
• 27:35
  as well, so he's been busy with that.
• 27:38
  But no, I mean, I definitely kind of love Joe.
• 27:40
  He's always contrarian, loves to fight facts.
• 27:43
  I know he's not the right 100% of the time, but he is generally
• 27:46
  the sentiment is, is pretty good there.
• 27:49
  I will say, I still think we've been in a generational run since
• 27:52
  2009. I do think I like we're
• 27:55
  definitely going to see a difference in cycles because you
• 27:58
  know, as the asset grows in value, I think it's harder to
• 28:01
  move a $2 trillion asset versus a $20 billion asset versus a 300
• 28:07
  billion dollar asset. So it definitely changes.
• 28:09
  I guess the one thing I will caveat is that yes, like
• 28:13
  institutions are like coming in with large swaths of money.
• 28:16
  I mean, they have over $1,000,000 in coins.
• 28:18
  I know some of that is like we said, we were talking about the
• 28:21
  ownership before that's really they're owning it on behalf of
• 28:24
  clients in four O 1 KS and Iras for the ETFs and such.
• 28:28
  Obviously as same thing with basically the Bitcoin treasury
• 28:30
  companies, they're buying Bitcoin.
• 28:31
  You're owning the stock or the bonds on those companies and
• 28:34
  they either, you know, they kind of owe you the the title of
• 28:37
  those. But I guess the one thing I will
• 28:39
  caveat is these are the same people that caused the 2000
• 28:42
  financial crisis, the 2008 financial crisis that benefited
• 28:46
  from the 2020 financial crisis. So there's a great quote by
• 28:49
  Warren Buffett. I know, you know, generational
• 28:52
  hater of Bitcoin, but there's a lot of wisdom in that guy from
• 28:54
  him and Charlie Munger. So one thing that they always
• 28:56
  said or one thing that Warren Buffett said was derivatives are
• 29:00
  financial weapons of mass destruction.
• 29:03
  What he means by that is, so obviously Joe was doing the
• 29:05
  comparison. I think in 2020, there's only
• 29:08
  about $1.7 billion in in basically derivatives or hedging
• 29:14
  or things like that or long shorts anything.
• 29:16
  Now it's like up to 40 billion. So still 40 billion on a $1.8
• 29:20
  trillion asset class. There's only about 2% of the
• 29:23
  market, but you can see like hey, 5% or 10% or whatever it
• 29:26
  may be. The thing with the stock market
• 29:28
  and the bond market, obviously if it starts slipping more than
• 29:31
  5% in a day, you know the stock it stock rate market shuts down
• 29:35
  for 15 minutes to cool off. You know the circuit Breakers
• 29:38
  they always talk about, I'm just imagining this panel in the New
• 29:40
  York Stock Exchange like sparks flying out of it as like the
• 29:43
  circuit Breakers are flipping like a real electrical box.
• 29:46
  That's obviously not the case, but they're obviously stopping
• 29:49
  and influencing the markets, not a free and open market Where in
• 29:52
  Bitcoin it is one of the true and only free and open market.
• 29:56
  So, you know, we've seen Bitcoin drop thousands of dollars, 10s
• 29:59
  of $1000 over the course of a day or a couple days or we've
• 30:02
  seen Bitcoin spike up obviously. So I will say with all these
• 30:06
  derivatives, there is no like backstop, there is no Fed.
• 30:10
  You know, maybe at the end of the day that always people have
• 30:12
  pontificated that maybe the Federal Reserve if Bitcoin
• 30:15
  because so it becomes so integrated in the economy that
• 30:17
  there will be, you know, buying Bitcoin or basically turning on
• 30:20
  QE to back up these these Bitcoin treasury companies.
• 30:23
  I don't think we are there yet. I still think we're a nascent
• 30:25
  niche industry. But obviously if the trend
• 30:28
  continues, we will grow to be a large portion of the industry.
• 30:31
  And ultimately, you know, in hyper bitcoinization, Bitcoin
• 30:34
  becomes the global reserve currency.
• 30:36
  You know, of hopefully the world or of many different nations
• 30:38
  kind of want to settle in Bitcoin terms.
• 30:40
  They don't want to settle in Fiat and gold is too slow.
• 30:43
  We know the restrictions of that.
• 30:44
  So I will say like, yes, I do think the four year cycles are
• 30:47
  elongated. It's harder to move a bigger and
• 30:49
  bigger ship or, you know, turn the ship around.
• 30:52
  But at the same time, like the point is proven kind of in Joe's
• 30:55
  tweet that he said right now it's 164,000 Bitcoin are coming
• 30:59
  onto the market every year with obviously the current issuance
• 31:02
  of Bitcoin. And obviously we've seen record
• 31:04
  growth from not just MicroStrategy, but from the ETFs
• 31:07
  and all these different things that at the end of the day, once
• 31:10
  that cycle gets cut in half and around 2028 again, oh, OK, We
• 31:14
  went from 164,000 Bitcoin coming on the market to 100 to 82,000
• 31:20
  Bitcoin coming on the market. And that's only cut in half
• 31:22
  again and again and again. And as long as the demand stays
• 31:25
  there or stays the same and the supplies getting cut in half,
• 31:28
  you know, price is the thing that has to move.
• 31:30
  Obviously there will be OG's. They're cashing out, you know,
• 31:33
  upgrading their lifestyles, whatever it may be.
• 31:35
  Institutions may be hedging or, you know, reducing their size.
• 31:38
  Hey, we're at 5% Bitcoin allocation.
• 31:40
  Our, our allocation grew to 10% because of price appreciation.
• 31:43
  So we want to sell some of our Bitcoin to, you know, they
• 31:45
  always say like de risk or, you know, sell the, the winners to
• 31:49
  buy more losers. But at the end of the day, like
• 31:51
  this market is growing, yes, things are not going as fast as
• 31:54
  I guess a lot of us would like. But at the end of the day, I do
• 31:57
  think, you know, you have a fixed supply.
• 31:59
  There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin.
• 32:01
  And at if that demand remains the same or only goes up, price
• 32:04
  is going to have to move in the medium to long term.
• 32:07
  And so we're basically going up to the right in the long term.
• 32:09
  But yeah, maybe the four year cycles are dead, maybe they're
• 32:12
  reduced, maybe they're slowed down, but I still think we're
• 32:14
  going up to the right in the long term.
• 32:15
  It's going up forever, Laura. Yeah, yeah, someone says.
• 32:18
  We're all just DJ. That's literally what's going
• 32:21
  on. We didn't didn't realize we were
• 32:22
  D Jens until we didn't get our price pumps.
• 32:25
  And then we realized like, OK, we're, we're all just.
• 32:27
  Until we didn't get our dopamine, yeah, we're all just
• 32:30
  pumps and dumps. We're all just D Jens, man, it's
• 32:32
  crazy. All right, guys, let's keep it
• 32:35
  moving. Of course, before I move on, I
• 32:37
  do want to remind you guys to smash the like button, subscribe
• 32:40
  to the show and of course, comment.
• 32:41
  Let us know what you think about the show and let's talk about
• 32:45
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  quick commercial break. I want to give a shout out to
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  se-ed.com store. Alrighty then, so the current
• 35:11
  Bitcoin price is $90,000 wait $90,360.00 which is a 28.4%
• 35:20
  discount. The market cap is still we can't
• 35:23
  get over 2 trillion not $1.8 trillion and the current block
• 35:27
  height is 927,000 and 19 I repeat 927019.
• 35:33
  OK, guys, I, I am going to kind of play a throwback here because
• 35:39
  I did totally miss this. But when Jack Mahler's was at
• 35:42
  Bitcoin Amsterdam, he kind of did an epic RIP.
• 35:45
  And I finally saw it on Twitter over the weekend.
• 35:48
  And I'm like, yo, we, we got to play it like we, we need a
• 35:51
  little more of this energy, not only on simply Bitcoin, but in
• 35:54
  Bitcoin in particular. So I'm going to play it.
• 35:57
  It is a little long, but it's kind of a banger.
• 35:59
  So I'm going to play it and then we'll and then we'll come back
• 36:01
  and, you know, vibe out a little bit.
• 36:06
  People have convoluted the concept of money to benefit
• 36:08
  them. It's like, Oh no, Bitcoin's not
• 36:11
  money. You're talking about an asset,
• 36:12
  the dollar's money. No, how about fuck you?
• 36:16
  First of all, don't tell me what to think or how to say what I
• 36:19
  want to say. If money is what I want to save,
• 36:22
  then I later exchange for the things I want in my life.
• 36:25
  Now if I walk into the pizza parlor and they say, well, we
• 36:28
  technically only accept dollars at that moment, then I just
• 36:31
  convert my Bitcoin to dollars and I hand to get the pizza.
• 36:34
  But what I used as money was Bitcoin because I exchanged the
• 36:39
  work I'm doing for those around me for Bitcoin and then later
• 36:42
  exchange it for the things I want.
• 36:44
  So this convoluted concept that there's like all these different
• 36:47
  forms of like, fuck you. It's I just don't buy it.
• 36:50
  And sorry, like, because, because it really, it really
• 36:54
  does bother me. If like, you know, there are
• 36:56
  powerful people in this industry that you guys all probably
• 37:01
  follow online. And, and, and I'm not saying
• 37:03
  they're bad people, but they've tapped me on the shoulder and
• 37:05
  say, hey, you know, don't say that on CNBC or I don't like the
• 37:08
  way you talk about the dollar. Sorry.
• 37:11
  Good thing I'm I'm me and you're you and you say whatever you
• 37:14
  want and then in regards to. The Treasury, that's right.
• 37:18
  Yeah, it's important. And that's this particular.
• 37:21
  So can I add a little context there, if you don't mind?
• 37:24
  This particular port is really important for for the last, you
• 37:28
  know, I've been the White House correspondent for Bitcoin
• 37:30
  Magazine. There are certain pressures that
• 37:32
  get put on people when they're in certain roles.
• 37:34
  So for the sake, I think it really deserves a round of
• 37:36
  applause you just gave him, because that tap on the shoulder
• 37:39
  does happen to people and they get told to think about things a
• 37:42
  certain way and message a certain way.
• 37:43
  And his messaging has remained consistent throughout.
• 37:46
  And this is really important. It's why you're up here.
• 37:47
  Because I think what you do in with that messaging is you speak
• 37:50
  to the hearts of everybody in this room who's taking the time,
• 37:53
  who's used their money to come here, spend time at a Bitcoin
• 37:55
  conference, to be around other like minded people who see
• 37:58
  Bitcoin as money. So I think this point is really,
• 38:00
  really important. The amount of pressure, it
• 38:02
  really can't be underestimated by people who might not be in
• 38:04
  these environments. But I'm curious, is it just, is
• 38:07
  it just your sense of integrity? It has to be hard at points.
• 38:10
  I have to imagine there are points where the pressure kind
• 38:12
  of feels like so much, like maybe it would be easier to just
• 38:15
  toe this line that people want me to tell.
• 38:17
  Again, it's like I just am very passionate and feel very
• 38:19
  strongly about being real. Like as a human being I was, I
• 38:24
  was born to love others, to contribute to something bigger
• 38:29
  than myself. Like this is bigger than me and
• 38:32
  it's bigger than anyone else's self-interest as well.
• 38:35
  And so, you know, I don't think many of us were born inherently
• 38:41
  bad or wrong. So why I wouldn't want to stand
• 38:44
  for the truth and be honest. So you know what, what's my
• 38:49
  preference to be honest? Stand for what I believe in.
• 38:51
  And by the way, not in not in an arrogant fashion.
• 38:55
  I'll be the first to raise my hand, which I've done throughout
• 38:57
  my career all the time when I'm wrong.
• 38:59
  You know, I, I've, I've said, I got to squeeze this in here just
• 39:03
  for this. My team's going to kill me.
• 39:04
  But I've said, hey, it seems like Jamie Dimon banked Jeffrey
• 39:08
  Epstein. Big words, big words.
• 39:11
  No, listen, I've I've said that pretty publicly because it seems
• 39:17
  like it's true. And JP Morgan threw me out of
• 39:20
  the bank hilariously. And if he ever called me up and
• 39:25
  said, listen, man, you can't say stuff like that because here's
• 39:27
  the evidence that I didn't. He's never done that.
• 39:30
  He's never once provide. So I'm happy to raise my hand.
• 39:33
  The point is and say I was wrong.
• 39:35
  The dollar's money, Bitcoins and assets.
• 39:38
  But it's not for those reasons that people tap me on the
• 39:41
  shoulder. They tap me on the shoulders
• 39:42
  like, well, you're saying things that you know would make other
• 39:45
  people upset. If the truth makes you upset,
• 39:48
  that says a lot about you, not me.
• 39:51
  Appreciate. That all right banger clip
• 39:56
  banger clip I I think I can only really get away with the full
• 39:59
  clip because nikko's not here today so let's hope this show
• 40:03
  survives after that one but. That's a banger, man.
• 40:06
  I, I, I think I, I think I do that on the show constantly.
• 40:10
  You you guys see me do this where Nico gets a little scared
• 40:13
  about the things I say and I'm like luck.
• 40:15
  I mean, that's how I feel. Sorry.
• 40:18
  This is this is what I'm seeing. Sometimes it's uncomfortable,
• 40:22
  but I'm I'm with him and and actually probably the bigger
• 40:26
  kind of more interesting take on this is what Frank Korba and
• 40:29
  Jack were both saying. It's like there are people out
• 40:32
  there that are Bitcoiners and you know, like we're not here
• 40:35
  to, to kind of shit talk other Bitcoiners.
• 40:37
  But there is kind of when you go into the, the mainstream public
• 40:43
  consciousness, there is kind of this, this pushback to maybe
• 40:49
  taper off the more radical notions in Bitcoin.
• 40:52
  And I think what I try to do here is I definitely try to say
• 40:57
  things so they don't scare people away.
• 40:59
  But you guys know me. I'm probably one of the one of
• 41:02
  the more crazier Bitcoiners out there.
• 41:04
  And I mean, I'm totally with them.
• 41:06
  And, and you, you have to be kind of naive to think that
• 41:10
  there isn't a lot of pushback coming right now amongst Bitcoin
• 41:13
  narratives. And it really makes you kind of
• 41:17
  be a little more critical about the stuff that you do here.
• 41:20
  And I've been finding myself doing this cause I've been
• 41:23
  seeing it happen on the opposite side.
• 41:25
  You see what the mainstream media says about Bitcoin, about
• 41:28
  anyone embracing Bitcoin. And so with that does come we
• 41:31
  should be doing this to even us on the show, even, you know,
• 41:35
  your your favorite Bitcoiners, because there is this very real
• 41:40
  threat of like groupthink happening with Bitcoin and
• 41:45
  everyone getting very lazy. And we just talked about the
• 41:47
  memes. And I think this is what a lot
• 41:48
  of the battles have been this year is a lot of Bitcoiners like
• 41:52
  we're just kind of getting lazy and rehashing memes and haven't
• 41:56
  really updated our perspectives and we haven't really changed
• 41:59
  what we say and what we believe in.
• 42:01
  And so I don't know if you guys have noticed, but all year I've
• 42:03
  been constantly trying to update what I'm saying, my update my
• 42:07
  mental frameworks, but it's all still based on the idea that I
• 42:11
  think Bitcoin is money and no one can really tell me
• 42:13
  otherwise. I'm like, it's the best money in
• 42:15
  the world. I think that's why would you
• 42:17
  want to use anything else digital world.
• 42:19
  We need a digital money and of course not just any digital
• 42:24
  money before I I hear you know our boy Jimmy on Rumble being
• 42:27
  like Opti just called for ACBDC dude, we're going we're in a
• 42:31
  digital world. It's either CBDC or it's Bitcoin
• 42:34
  and I I choose Bitcoin and I think we're going to win
• 42:38
  anyways, I rambled up the unleash.
• 42:41
  No, not even not even oh, thank you guys thank you and this
• 42:47
  wasn't about talking about me. OK, but I appreciate it, SF
• 42:49
  Thank you so much, Chris. Anyways, what's your thoughts
• 42:52
  here in this clip 'cause I don't know.
• 42:54
  I saw, I, I saw it over the weekend and I'm like, that's a
• 42:57
  banger. We got to play it today.
• 42:58
  And then and then I realized Nico wasn't on the show this
• 43:01
  morning and I'm like, perfect, we're gonna, we're gonna put
• 43:03
  some sauce on today. So, Chris, yeah, thoughts.
• 43:09
  You're muted. You're muted, bro.
• 43:10
  Hold on. Yep, that's on there.
• 43:12
  Yeah. Jack Mallars is a great speaker,
• 43:14
  obviously, you know, very articulate.
• 43:17
  It is very interesting that he was calling him out and then a
• 43:19
  few weeks later he gets his JP Morgan Chase account shut down.
• 43:23
  So it's very interesting. I think it this kind of goes for
• 43:26
  a lot of the Bitcoiners and the, you know, kind of the overlap of
• 43:30
  the freedom maximalist or the free speech absolutist.
• 43:33
  He's like, if what I if the truths that I say offend you,
• 43:36
  That's more of a sentiment on you than it is on me.
• 43:39
  Maybe I butchered the way it was said, but basically saying like,
• 43:41
  you know, if I'm telling you truths and you're getting upset
• 43:43
  by it, that's your problem, not my problem.
• 43:45
  And I think that's a great point.
• 43:46
  I think a lot of times people like to sugarcoat things and I
• 43:49
  definitely agree. Like Frank and and Jack said in
• 43:52
  not so many words that basically in Wall Street, in, you know, DC
• 43:58
  in these power centers of the world, they're like, hey, dude,
• 44:01
  you may want to walk back what you're saying.
• 44:04
  You may not say it this way. You may not want to call Bitcoin
• 44:08
  money you like there. There's definitely a pushing and
• 44:11
  there's trying to control the narrative for sure.
• 44:13
  We saw a lot of that obviously in 2020-2021 for what what did
• 44:18
  you call the the flu epidemic or whatever?
• 44:20
  He said in his tweet. I'll keep PG I'll keep.
• 44:23
  I couldn't. Read it.
• 44:25
  I'll keep it PG in because I know Nico's not not thrilled
• 44:28
  with that. But anyway, to your point, like
• 44:30
  a lot of times they want to control the narrative.
• 44:31
  And to your point, like if they're trying to control what
• 44:35
  Bitcoin is, what Bitcoin is described as how Bitcoin's used,
• 44:38
  that is part of control. Yeah, a lot of times people have
• 44:41
  said in the Bitcoin network that like, oh, someone's going to
• 44:44
  either Co-op core or the institutions are going to try
• 44:48
  and change the narrative and they're going to try and Co opt
• 44:53
  and change the narrative. But I do think a part of this is
• 44:57
  not even changing the nodes or trying to change what Bitcoin
• 45:00
  is, but trying to police speech and trying to change the
• 45:03
  definitions of things is another way that you can covert and Co
• 45:07
  opt Bitcoin that like is more nefarious because you're trying
• 45:09
  to control speech, you're trying to control what people say,
• 45:12
  trying to control how people think.
• 45:13
  And there's obviously, what's the famous saying we do here?
• 45:16
  You know, memes are the bullets and tweets are the artillery,
• 45:20
  so. Tweets are the bullets, memes
• 45:21
  are the artillery. I always mix it up, but
• 45:24
  basically it is an information war.
• 45:26
  And a lot of people have said like we've been in World War
• 45:28
  Three since basically like 2000 and seven, 2008 of like, you
• 45:32
  know, realizing that we are in an information war.
• 45:35
  And yeah, it's not done with kinetic warfare like we saw with
• 45:38
  World War One and World War 2, but we saw a lot of it.
• 45:40
  And especially with the Snowden leaks, what Julian Assange
• 45:43
  reported on, what Gary Webb reported on with the FBI and the
• 45:46
  CIAA lot of these things. I hate to put the conspiracy hat
• 45:49
  on, but basically we saw that like Big tech that was working
• 45:52
  with government to silent speech, we saw this in 2020 with
• 45:55
  them banning accounts or you know, hiding accounts or not
• 45:59
  being able to retweet and get information out there.
• 46:01
  So I do think it isn't a very much an information war.
• 46:04
  And I think a big part of that is obviously buying Bitcoin,
• 46:07
  taking self custody, stacking stats, staying humble.
• 46:10
  I think that. Yeah.
• 46:11
  And, and to your point, and I do want to move on, but to your
• 46:15
  point, we, we did kind of see, you know, very extreme example
• 46:21
  of this play out with the samurai devs.
• 46:23
  And you know, like obviously free the Samurai devs.
• 46:27
  I, I know there's like a whole new movement right now currently
• 46:31
  that's been playing out over the weekend of trying to get them
• 46:33
  pardoned by Trump. But you did you do kind of see
• 46:36
  some of this backlash and, and obviously that's like the worst
• 46:39
  case scenario, literally, you know, getting arrested for the
• 46:43
  things that you're saying it, it was just absolutely nuts.
• 46:46
  Now, of course, they use a lot of pretext to kind of arrest
• 46:49
  them. But I think we've seen kind of
• 46:52
  all sides of this in this year in particular, that there is a
• 46:57
  battle going on right now around the narrative of what Bitcoin
• 47:00
  is, what it means to the world, what it's going to do.
• 47:04
  Obviously, we started the show with this idea of captured
• 47:07
  Bitcoin through Wall Street versus Bitcoin in self custody.
• 47:11
  We've seen Bitcoin be attacked because Trump embraced it.
• 47:14
  We've seen literal Bitcoin developers be arrested for some
• 47:18
  of their more extreme narratives around their software and they
• 47:22
  basically saying, oh, if you know a criminal's using it, then
• 47:25
  you are also liable for what they do with the software, which
• 47:28
  is just absolutely insane when you kind of think of the the
• 47:31
  context of this. So we have been seeing a lot
• 47:34
  about this particular idea this year.
• 47:38
  There are a lot of forces kind of pressuring you on how and
• 47:42
  what you can say around Bitcoin, how you should be marketing it
• 47:46
  to the, the masses, how you should be marketing it to Wall
• 47:49
  Street. It's, you know, there, there
• 47:51
  this year in particular, I think that's probably one of the
• 47:54
  bigger wars going on right now is like you said, the
• 47:56
  information war around Bitcoin and, and what it is and who
• 47:59
  controls it and who actually has the power here.
• 48:02
  I, I think in every manifestation of a fight this
• 48:06
  year, that's been kind of the, the core theme of all of the
• 48:10
  fights. Anyways, it's Chris.
• 48:11
  I I saw you did want to pop in one more time.
• 48:13
  Yeah, one more thing I want to add.
• 48:14
  So I I really appreciate you bringing up the free the Samurai
• 48:17
  devs. So there is a website
• 48:19
  billandkeon.org. Keon is spelled KEONNE.
• 48:25
  So Bill and keon.org, you can go there, you could sign a
• 48:28
  petition, you can donate money. So Bill and Keon were obviously
• 48:33
  the code founders and developers of Samurai wallet.
• 48:36
  It was a privacy focused tool that used coin join in order to
• 48:39
  protect forward privacy, obviously.
• 48:42
  So they were obviously in a battle for their lives, quite
• 48:45
  literally. They were facing up to 25 years
• 48:48
  in prison. There was 2 charges brought
• 48:49
  against them. One was to conspiracy to commit
• 48:51
  money laundering. What the other one was to
• 48:53
  operate an unlicensed money transmitter business.
• 48:57
  They were able basically the prosecution kind of saw that
• 48:59
  they were not able to get them on operating a conspiracy to
• 49:02
  operate a money laundering business because they never took
• 49:04
  control of funds. It was a tool that could be
• 49:06
  used. So it's kind of hard to say,
• 49:07
  hey, you're operating a money laundering thing when it's a
• 49:11
  tool that they meant a free and open source tool that anyone
• 49:14
  could use, but they never took control of the coins.
• 49:16
  That is more of a coin mixer where they are not they're a
• 49:20
  coin joining tool. The second one.
• 49:22
  So basically they took a plea deal.
• 49:24
  So they pled guilty because they saw that it was basically kind
• 49:27
  of unwinnable in court. So even though later documents
• 49:30
  were released that Finsend, the DOJ went to Finsend and said,
• 49:33
  hey, we're going to try and get charge these guys for running an
• 49:38
  unlicensed money transmitter business.
• 49:39
  And basically Fins had said, well, they never take custody of
• 49:42
  coins. So they can't be operating as a
• 49:45
  money transmitter business because they never have custody.
• 49:47
  And custody is a big piece of that.
• 49:48
  Obviously many things were kind of going against them.
• 49:51
  They were in the Southern District of New York.
• 49:53
  Basically they have like a 98% conviction rate.
• 49:56
  So the odds were not good. They don't like Bitcoin there
• 50:00
  and they actually have a very, very high conviction rate
• 50:02
  regardless. Like it's almost kind of like
• 50:04
  you're you're guilty until proven innocent in that.
• 50:07
  Court, well they they also like they don't even try a case if
• 50:10
  they know they can't win basically.
• 50:12
  Pretty much pretty much. So a lot of times the best
• 50:16
  course of action is to try and fight it down and then get a a
• 50:19
  plea that is less less bad. So Long story short, a big part
• 50:24
  of it is Keon and Bill are reporting to prison on December
• 50:27
  19th. They were even though.
• 50:28
  So in between getting sentenced and reporting for prison,
• 50:32
  December 19th is their date, which is you know, I just a
• 50:35
  short 1 1/2 weeks away. Unfortunately, they were able to
• 50:38
  spend Thanksgiving with their families.
• 50:41
  Luckily, yes, they're obviously under house arrest.
• 50:43
  So a big part of the website is if you can't donate money, a big
• 50:47
  part of that would be to sign the petition.
• 50:49
  I know a lot of people on there are going to say, hey, they're
• 50:50
  not accepting Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as donations.
• 50:53
  A big part of their plea was that or part of when they got
• 50:56
  indicted was that they are not allowed to use send or receive
• 51:00
  or have someone send or receive Bitcoin in their like.
• 51:03
  So that also Hanford their defense and they they just don't
• 51:06
  want to mess with the prosecution at all.
• 51:08
  Like let's just say they started receiving donations now the
• 51:10
  prosecution said you broke the terms of your plea agreement.
• 51:13
  We can now ramp up the obviously the charges brought against you.
• 51:18
  So they there have been talk that unfortunately, if and when
• 51:21
  they report to prison, barring A pardon from Trump, that they
• 51:25
  will then accept donations. Once they report for prison in
• 51:29
  December 19th, their wives will coordinate donations.
• 51:32
  So it is very tragic. Unfortunately, there's only
• 51:34
  about 3200 signatures on the petition right now.
• 51:37
  I'd love for that number to be much, much higher.
• 51:38
  Obviously, you know, I hope that we can get this in front of
• 51:41
  Trump and I think this is a pardon that should go through.
• 51:43
  Obviously he want he's been him and his advisors been saying
• 51:47
  we're the most pro Bitcoin and cryptocurrency group.
• 51:50
  A big part of that would be you know, repealing or pardoning
• 51:54
  them in my opinion, saying that they were unfairly attacked by
• 51:57
  the DOJ. But that remains to be seen.
• 52:00
  We'll see if that happens. So that's just my 2 sets.
• 52:03
  Yeah. Great, great, great tangent
• 52:06
  there, Chris. One last thing, sorry 2 two more
• 52:09
  things. Keon was on POD 256 and also he
• 52:13
  was on Watchmen Privacy and also the Kim Iverson show.
• 52:16
  He just talks about way in greater detail about his case,
• 52:19
  what happened. And I think it's great to hear
• 52:21
  from, you know, hear from the horse's mouth about everything
• 52:24
  that transpired during the the trial and he can talk on it now.
• 52:28
  Obviously I'm praying for him and Bill's families and for them
• 52:32
  barring that they report for prison, unfortunately.
• 52:34
  So that's my last two sacks so. Got it.
• 52:37
  Great. You see, This is why we like
• 52:39
  Chris on the show 'cause he makes me look good.
• 52:44
  Anyways, we'll be right back and we'll jump into the news some
• 52:47
  some interesting stuff happening with the banks guys.
• 52:50
  It looks like basically almost every bank around the world is
• 52:53
  now trying to position themselves for Bitcoin, and we
• 52:55
  got some more updates on that, so we'll be right back.
• 52:59
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  All righty then guys, we are back.
• 55:33
  First news coming out of the UAE, of course, Bitcoin MENA
• 55:37
  conference is going on right now, which is in the Middle
• 55:41
  East. I think it's in Abu Dhabi,
• 55:42
  right? So a lot of news is coming out.
• 55:45
  I'm sure as more of the conference happens, we'll get
• 55:48
  more news and I'm sure we'll cover it with that tomorrow.
• 55:51
  But the first one is Sharia compliant crypto investing.
• 55:55
  Roya and Fused redefine ethical digital wealth creation in the
• 56:00
  UAE. So Roya and Fused launched UA ES
• 56:04
  first Sharia compliant crypto platform enabling ethical
• 56:08
  Bitcoin trading via mobile app with Sharia oversight.
• 56:12
  I, I don't know what the Sharia oversight is, but as bitcoiners
• 56:16
  have been trolling and I and I don't think this is a bad thing
• 56:19
  to say. I, I think they say it
• 56:20
  themselves, but Bitcoin is halal money.
• 56:23
  I know that's kind of been a meme in Bitcoin, but now it's
• 56:26
  kind of like official and here we go.
• 56:29
  So platform avoids speculative trading and adheres to Islamic
• 56:32
  principles like Reba and Gurara prohibitions while leveraging
• 56:37
  blockchain security and transparency.
• 56:40
  UAES $30 billion plus tokenized assets and tax friendly policies
• 56:45
  position is a top five global crypto hub with $395.9 million
• 56:50
  market revenue projected by 2025 strategic alignment of Islamic
• 56:54
  finance and blockchain innovation creates low risk
• 56:57
  entry for ethical investors. A doubling digital economies GDP
• 57:01
  contributions to 2031. So of course, you know, big
• 57:06
  news. Well, one of the big news, it's
• 57:07
  the first digital first Islamic bank coming out of the UAE.
• 57:11
  It's called Roya and they partnered with USE, though
• 57:15
  here's I think where it it's kind of interesting.
• 57:18
  So the platform design reflects a deep understanding of Islamic
• 57:22
  principles such as the prohibition of Reba, which is
• 57:26
  interest, and Garrard, which is uncertainty, while leveraging
• 57:31
  blockchain, inherent security and decentralization, as
• 57:34
  reported. You just love to see it.
• 57:37
  You know, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is for everyone.
• 57:40
  And it is interesting. I know it's been like a meme in
• 57:42
  the Bitcoin space that this is the case.
• 57:44
  But now it's official. They're like, hey, you know,
• 57:47
  Bitcoin aligns perfectly with our, you know, religion, with
• 57:51
  Islam. It shouldn't scare you away.
• 57:54
  There has been a lot of contention on Twitter of whether
• 57:57
  it is or isn't Well, now I think they they finally made it
• 58:01
  official and now I'm just going to bundle these two together
• 58:03
  because it is also another bank apparently francs francs France
• 58:10
  second largest bank group. The BPCE will begin offering
• 58:14
  Bitcoin and some shit coin purchases to customers starting
• 58:17
  today with a phase roll out across regional banks planned
• 58:20
  through 2026. So this one, you know, it might
• 58:24
  be a little more impactful at second largest bank in France.
• 58:27
  And considering some of the rhetoric we've heard come out of
• 58:30
  France, like in particular, I think it was last week or a few
• 58:33
  weeks ago, they were talking about like, you know,
• 58:37
  confiscating your property. And now the second largest bank
• 58:40
  is like, hey, you can use Bitcoin.
• 58:41
  This one isn't as good. I would say it is a phase roll
• 58:46
  out. I looked through the press
• 58:48
  release and it doesn't really seem like you can actually
• 58:50
  withdraw your Bitcoin from the bank.
• 58:52
  It just says you can buy, sell and hold Bitcoin within your
• 58:56
  app, which I think depending on who you ask, some might say it's
• 59:01
  a good thing. I know sailors been out there
• 59:02
  essentially saying that, hey, you know, once banks allow you
• 59:05
  to custody your Bitcoin with them, that's really when
• 59:08
  mainstream adoption will happen. From our perspective, it's like,
• 59:11
  yeah, that's cool. But if you're not given the
• 59:13
  option to actually take your Bitcoin out of these banks and
• 59:16
  like, what are we really doing here?
• 59:19
  The second part is the phase rollout.
• 59:21
  They're going to do it to about 2 million customers, and then
• 59:24
  they're going to phase it out to everyone else by like 2027.
• 59:27
  So it almost does sound like the narratives and rhetoric we've
• 59:32
  heard from other people where it's like, hey, we're going to
• 59:34
  allow Bitcoin for our rich clients.
• 59:37
  And then, you know, we're we're just going to do a test bed and
• 59:40
  then everyone else will get it later.
• 59:42
  And you're like, I mean, I guess that's good.
• 59:46
  But in reality, you got to just launch this for everyone, though
• 59:49
  they always say the same thing. This is for customer protection.
• 59:52
  You know, we got to, we got to test this, we got to observe it
• 59:56
  so that we can actually roll this out and not hurt people.
• 59:59
  So I mean, I'm not really mad about them not kind of moving
• 1:00:03
  fast and breaking things. But it is a a larger trend that
• 1:00:07
  we've seen in the past few weeks.
• 1:00:10
  Of course, in the US, basically every big bank has now
• 1:00:13
  officially come out pro Bitcoin. Now we're getting stuff in the
• 1:00:17
  Middle East. Of course, we've heard sovereign
• 1:00:18
  wealth funds embrace Bitcoin. Now we're even to get in France
• 1:00:22
  and France is not really the best place for your money at the
• 1:00:25
  current moment. So obviously I think that little
• 1:00:29
  caveat there of, yeah, you can leave your Bitcoin there in the
• 1:00:32
  bank app. That probably leads to the
• 1:00:35
  greater conversation of what's going on in France where they're
• 1:00:38
  like proposing crazy unrealized gains tax, you know, the the
• 1:00:42
  ability to confiscate your property.
• 1:00:44
  So it's not perfect, but as I've been saying for a while on the
• 1:00:48
  European front, man, they're, they're so cooked right now and
• 1:00:53
  wouldn't want to be in Europe, though we do need some last
• 1:00:56
  Mohicans there. We do need some hardcore
• 1:00:58
  Bitcoiners in Europe because if, if we leave, no, I'm not saying
• 1:01:03
  we because I'm in the, I'm in America.
• 1:01:05
  My ancestors left a long time ago.
• 1:01:07
  So you guys need to stay there and and make sure that more
• 1:01:12
  people are using Bitcoin and that these banks and all these
• 1:01:16
  institutions do bend the knee to the Bitcoin ethos, which is you
• 1:01:19
  need to allow your customers to withdraw their Bitcoin.
• 1:01:23
  It's not enough to just have like a golden cage, golden
• 1:01:25
  handcuffs where, yeah, you can buy some, get some Bitcoin
• 1:01:28
  exposure. But until you can actually use
• 1:01:31
  the Bitcoin, take it off these exchanges or banking apps.
• 1:01:34
  Like what are we really doing? And we saw this play out in the
• 1:01:37
  US You know, PayPal was famously doing this and now I'm pretty
• 1:01:40
  sure Paypal's like, yeah, you can withdraw it.
• 1:01:42
  So maybe it's just a time thing where they are actually trying
• 1:01:46
  to test this. Usually my knee jerk reaction is
• 1:01:51
  like they're just never going to roll it out.
• 1:01:53
  So hey, more banks want Bitcoin. Or rather more banks want your
• 1:01:58
  Bitcoin, but some of them want to give you access to the
• 1:02:02
  Bitcoin. I don't know.
• 1:02:03
  Anyways, Chris, it's been a minute.
• 1:02:06
  It's been a minute since you been on the show.
• 1:02:10
  I don't know if we've talked about the banks getting into
• 1:02:13
  Bitcoin, but it does lead to kind of the initial conversation
• 1:02:16
  of the show that Wall Street want your Bitcoin.
• 1:02:18
  All the biggest bank institutions want to essentially
• 1:02:23
  hold Bitcoin for you. So the, you know, as *** likes
• 1:02:26
  to say, the Overton window has shifted.
• 1:02:29
  When does it completely break? This may be the better question.
• 1:02:35
  I don't know, I mean it's very interesting the whole the bank
• 1:02:38
  that's the Sharia compliant Bitcoin.
• 1:02:41
  It's very interesting that obviously they don't like
• 1:02:43
  interest or Reba as it's called in in Oh my gosh, I'm drawing a
• 1:02:48
  blank in the language on Arabic. There we go.
• 1:02:53
  Thank you. I was drawing a blank in that,
• 1:02:54
  but obviously so if you're not charging interest, they'll be
• 1:02:57
  fees to have your bank account and bank.
• 1:02:59
  I know that's something that basically Caitlin Long was
• 1:03:02
  trying to do with Custodia Bank having a fully reserved bank.
• 1:03:04
  And obviously they wouldn't lend out your Bitcoin, they wouldn't
• 1:03:07
  be fractionally reserved. They were trying to be fully
• 1:03:09
  reserved. But in doing that, the only way
• 1:03:11
  that they make money is by charging you fees on having your
• 1:03:13
  account, which is fine. I'm think I'm fine with that.
• 1:03:15
  But I find it very interesting that Gahar or whatever the other
• 1:03:19
  word was Opti uncertainty. They like kept saying blockchain
• 1:03:22
  and blockchain innovation. So it's like we we, we provide
• 1:03:25
  Bitcoin and other crypto assets. It's like, all right, well,
• 1:03:28
  aren't those uncertain? Aren't they not?
• 1:03:31
  I think they are just, at least when it comes to what was it
• 1:03:36
  Roya, I think they are only allowing Bitcoin purchases.
• 1:03:44
  Maybe maybe stable coins are the only other asset that I could
• 1:03:46
  see being not like uncertainty, because all other
• 1:03:50
  cryptocurrencies and even stable coins are kind of like a small
• 1:03:53
  caveat that I'd say basically, But it it basically seems like,
• 1:03:56
  hey, if you're allowing other crypto assets, like at what
• 1:03:58
  point is that uncertainty and not allowing with their charter?
• 1:04:01
  So I I don't know, I'll just caveat there.
• 1:04:03
  I know, but Opti, I know. Are you big into UFC and stuff?
• 1:04:06
  I remember a few years ago Khabib right after he retired,
• 1:04:09
  Khabib was the guy that won 29 and O beat Conor McGregor,
• 1:04:12
  arguably one of the best UFC fighters that's ever.
• 1:04:15
  Bears. Yeah, wrestles bears.
• 1:04:17
  He's in that small little country, rights out of the
• 1:04:20
  outside of Russia that like, yeah, Russia like wrestles bears
• 1:04:23
  and like they're crazy fighting. I forget the name of where he's
• 1:04:26
  from. You can look it up on Wikipedia.
• 1:04:27
  But anyway, I remember he was like, oh, like I don't believe
• 1:04:30
  in interest or like basically he wanted like Sharia law.
• 1:04:33
  He's an devote Muslim, and I remember on my safety, Dean
• 1:04:40
  commented, and he's like, hey, dude, I'd love to talk about
• 1:04:42
  Bitcoin because Bitcoin is, you know, Sharia compliant.
• 1:04:45
  And this was the argument two or three years ago, at least.
• 1:04:47
  I don't know if the conversation ever happened offline.
• 1:04:50
  I know he didn't have a podcast with him, but I know there's a
• 1:04:52
  big talk of, like, Bitcoin is Sharia compliant, It is halal.
• 1:04:56
  It is all these things that we talked about because it is the
• 1:04:59
  fairest form of money and it's, you know, converting your energy
• 1:05:02
  into a form of currency. So yeah, I think it's very
• 1:05:06
  interesting that they're trying to do this.
• 1:05:07
  To your point, a lot of banks, they love your Bitcoin and then
• 1:05:12
  they love, you know, helping you with your Bitcoin to get fees on
• 1:05:15
  it. So I think we'll always advocate
• 1:05:17
  for buying and self custom Bitcoin yourself.
• 1:05:20
  But I know in this day and age people always want to be
• 1:05:22
  convenient, easier, you know, easier for them.
• 1:05:26
  So I don't know. That's my 2 sets.
• 1:05:27
  Yeah, I mean the truism in Bitcoin that yes, you know, not
• 1:05:33
  only shit coiners, but banks and institutions, they all love
• 1:05:37
  Bitcoin. They just love your Bitcoin.
• 1:05:39
  So make sure that you don't give them your Bitcoin.
• 1:05:42
  I guess we could add Wall Street in there.
• 1:05:44
  Yes, Wall Street loves Bitcoin now, but they really love your
• 1:05:47
  Bitcoin. So make sure you don't give up
• 1:05:49
  your keys to Wall Street, the institutions, or shit corners at
• 1:05:53
  this point. The Great American Hollow quote
• 1:05:56
  Shit corners like Bitcoin too. They just like your Bitcoin.
• 1:05:58
  So that's exactly that is the best quote ever.
• 1:06:02
  All right, guys, last segment we have this is just kind of like
• 1:06:07
  AI don't know, it's hodgepodge. I, I don't even know if that's a
• 1:06:10
  real, real sentiment right now. But we had some kind of funny
• 1:06:14
  things happen over the weekend coming out of the Trump
• 1:06:17
  administration based some fights towards the Federal Reserve,
• 1:06:22
  some interesting stuff happening with the Bitcoiner.
• 1:06:25
  And then Scott Besson was on the all In podcast and just had like
• 1:06:28
  the I, I kind of think it's a hilarious sound bite.
• 1:06:31
  So I'm just going to play all this stuff for you.
• 1:06:33
  It's the culture. This kind of what the, I don't
• 1:06:36
  know, general sentiment is right now.
• 1:06:37
  And then we'll wrap up today's show for Monday.
• 1:06:39
  So we'll be right back. I want to give a shout out to
• 1:06:43
  our partner Hive Digital Technology.
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• 1:08:33
  freedom. All right, guys.
• 1:08:40
  So first thing that happened over the weekend, well, I think
• 1:08:44
  that's actually, this might have just been the first thing that I
• 1:08:46
  saw that I found kind of interesting.
• 1:08:48
  This happened. So apparently Lawrence Leopard
• 1:08:53
  sent Trump the big print his book, and now I don't think
• 1:08:57
  Trump actually read the book per SE.
• 1:09:00
  Maybe one of his aides read it. But he did get an official White
• 1:09:04
  House letter from Trump. And it goes.
• 1:09:07
  Mr. Lawrence Leopard in Naples, FL Dear Mr. Leopard, thank you
• 1:09:11
  for your kind words and the wonderful gift.
• 1:09:14
  Your unwavering support and encouragement mean a great deal
• 1:09:16
  to me and have been a tremendous part of our America First
• 1:09:19
  movement. Together we will continue to
• 1:09:21
  usher in the Golden Age of America.
• 1:09:24
  May God bless you and your family.
• 1:09:25
  Now, I do think this is probably like political posturing.
• 1:09:29
  You know, Trump is very good at knowing what his base wants and
• 1:09:34
  kind of pandering to them. So this this could be the case.
• 1:09:37
  But again, Larry Leopard sent Donald Trump the big print and
• 1:09:41
  he got an official White House letter responding to it, which,
• 1:09:45
  you know, it, it is kind of crazy, though.
• 1:09:47
  I doubt he's reading the book. He's probably just trying to
• 1:09:51
  make sure that he still gets some votes in the midterm.
• 1:09:55
  That's kind of like my, my technical take on this.
• 1:09:58
  This next one is actually kind of interesting, not necessarily
• 1:10:02
  about Bitcoin, but Trump trolling one of Bitcoin's
• 1:10:06
  biggest haters, which you kind of just love to see.
• 1:10:09
  So Donald Trump on true social goes.
• 1:10:11
  Why would Fox and Friends weekend of all things put on a
• 1:10:15
  stockbroker named Peter Schiff, a Trump hating loser who has
• 1:10:19
  already proven to be wrong. Either the show made a mistake
• 1:10:23
  or it's heading in a different direction.
• 1:10:24
  He thinks prices are going up when in fact they are coming
• 1:10:27
  substantially down. Gasoline hit $1.99 a gallon
• 1:10:31
  yesterday in certain States and it's down big since Biden.
• 1:10:35
  Other prices are almost all down.
• 1:10:38
  Biden caused the affordability crisis.
• 1:10:40
  I'm fixing it along with everything else.
• 1:10:43
  Much of it, like the border, is already fixed.
• 1:10:45
  Check out the Booker who put this jerk on.
• 1:10:49
  That's hilarious. It's hilarious.
• 1:10:51
  Like so I've heard, not that I know or have an insider, but a
• 1:10:55
  lot of people say people close to to Trump.
• 1:10:56
  He always has like Fox on obviously.
• 1:10:59
  So I'm sure that he has it on the background.
• 1:11:01
  He probably saw Peter Schiff come on and criticize him.
• 1:11:03
  He's like yo fuck this guy throws out this.
• 1:11:08
  I mean, he is right. He is right.
• 1:11:10
  Peter Schiff has been wrong about everything, in particular
• 1:11:13
  Bitcoin. So, you know, maybe, maybe this
• 1:11:17
  is Trump trolling him about Bitcoin.
• 1:11:19
  I highly doubt it. That's that's just a bad joke.
• 1:11:21
  But yeah, sorry, Chris, what were you going to say?
• 1:11:24
  No, I I also wonder with like him just calling out Peter
• 1:11:29
  Schiff is just hilarious. But to his to, I guess to play
• 1:11:33
  devil's advocate here, Trump did sign with the big beautiful
• 1:11:36
  bill. He's printing like $9 trillion
• 1:11:38
  over the next 10 years. So it's like, yeah, you say
• 1:11:41
  prices are down for now, but after the midterms, I think
• 1:11:44
  we'll see how inflation tick back up again.
• 1:11:46
  But who knows? Well, I mean, I have been saying
• 1:11:48
  it on the show for a while, like as much as the official
• 1:11:52
  narratives are, the economy is better than ever.
• 1:11:56
  I think if you're on Main Street, like everyone kind of
• 1:11:59
  feels the pain of this, like very weird economy right now
• 1:12:03
  where, you know, the tariffs are supposedly helping us.
• 1:12:06
  And some, sometimes they're on, sometimes they're off, which is
• 1:12:09
  what I was saying earlier in the show is like, you need to have
• 1:12:13
  certainty and, and economic planning so that you can
• 1:12:17
  actually do better in the economy.
• 1:12:19
  And when we have had this much uncertainty, it's really hard to
• 1:12:23
  kind of plan, especially from like a business perspective of
• 1:12:26
  what you're going to do in the future.
• 1:12:28
  So like there is a lot of confusion going on.
• 1:12:31
  And, you know, I, I don't think Trump is doing like everyone
• 1:12:37
  kind of service by like all of this crazy stuff.
• 1:12:41
  No one really knows what's going on.
• 1:12:43
  And again, to your point, like the midterms are coming up
• 1:12:46
  faster than everyone wants to admit.
• 1:12:48
  And if the economy is cooked, the Republicans are about to get
• 1:12:52
  freaking smoked, even though no one really likes what the
• 1:12:55
  Democrats are doing and they're kind of having their own
• 1:12:57
  problems right now. But, you know, the Republicans
• 1:13:00
  have always really run on a good economy, and if everyone is
• 1:13:03
  feeling poor right now, that is not looking good for them in the
• 1:13:07
  midterms now. All right, one last thing.
• 1:13:09
  This one's coming from Scott Besson.
• 1:13:12
  This one's actually kind of funny.
• 1:13:13
  I I didn't load it up, so hopefully this plays for you
• 1:13:16
  guys, but Scott Besson went on the all in podcast and just had
• 1:13:20
  an absolutely kind of hilarious sound bite here.
• 1:13:24
  He's aura farming for sure Scott Besson aura farming.
• 1:13:26
  So let me know if this comes through and if not, I guess I'll
• 1:13:30
  figure out how to get it on for you guys.
• 1:13:31
  But here we go My worry is that the Fed is turning into
• 1:13:35
  universal basic income for PHC economy, right?
• 1:13:40
  But I I don't know what they do. They're never right if you if
• 1:13:44
  you were to. Maybe you should double the
• 1:13:46
  number of PhDs if you go to 700 they might get it right.
• 1:13:49
  Well, look, I mean, if you were to look at the central value
• 1:13:52
  tendency versus how they've done it, it's shocking, right?
• 1:13:57
  It's shocking. You know, I said, like if air
• 1:13:59
  traffic controllers did this, no one would get an airplane.
• 1:14:03
  My worry is that the oh, man, it did.
• 1:14:06
  I don't know. I mean, obviously you guys know
• 1:14:09
  I didn't vote in the last election, but if I did, this is
• 1:14:15
  probably what I voted for. Like this was like, this is kind
• 1:14:18
  of some good red meat for the base out there.
• 1:14:20
  And obviously Bitcoiners were one of the big kind of driving
• 1:14:24
  forces for Trump to get elected this year.
• 1:14:27
  But this really just goes into the war between the Trump
• 1:14:30
  administration versus Jerome Powell.
• 1:14:33
  We've been seeing this all year. I know Kevin Hassett's been on
• 1:14:36
  the CNBC recently and saying like, we're going to get rate
• 1:14:40
  cuts. He seems to be leading right now
• 1:14:42
  to replace Jay Powell. So hey, look, I, I think we
• 1:14:47
  might just be seeing red meat for the base right now on all
• 1:14:51
  fronts, you know, as, as the boys over at the Bitcoin bugle
• 1:14:54
  say, you know, we're, we're seeing a lot of pleb slop right
• 1:14:57
  now come out of the Trump administration.
• 1:15:00
  But it is kind of stuff where you're like, all right, you
• 1:15:02
  know, I kind of like the pandering, but it's also like,
• 1:15:06
  can we get something done here? I don't know, maybe I'm
• 1:15:08
  impatient, maybe I don't know politics enough, but I'm just
• 1:15:10
  like, all right, these are good. These are good sound bites.
• 1:15:14
  But man, what, what have you done for me lately?
• 1:15:17
  All right, enough of me. I think Scott Besset, Bitcoin
• 1:15:21
  fan, pub key fan. I just think it's very
• 1:15:24
  interesting that he's given these base takes.
• 1:15:26
  I think he's funny. I I mean, like I said, I don't
• 1:15:28
  follow politics that much. I think he's kind of in my
• 1:15:30
  favorite secretary of the of the cabinet basically just cause
• 1:15:36
  unexpected and just some of the things he's he's said and done
• 1:15:39
  in the position he's in. He's clearly very, very smart,
• 1:15:42
  but we'll see. Yeah, Daddy owe the check goes.
• 1:15:46
  I'd rather have pump bags. Yeah, me too, bro.
• 1:15:49
  That's what I'm saying, man. The sound bites are cool, but
• 1:15:53
  I'd rather have some pump bags at this point, man.
• 1:15:56
  But yeah, no, to your point, I mean, look, there is a part of
• 1:16:01
  Scott Besson that you know, could be very concerning a la
• 1:16:05
  the work he did for, you know, George Soros and and basically
• 1:16:11
  crashing currencies. So I don't think he's
• 1:16:15
  necessarily squeaky clean per SE, but it is almost like he is
• 1:16:22
  a bad ass and I'd rather have him on my side than fighting
• 1:16:26
  against us. And it does seem like they're
• 1:16:28
  fully on board with Bitcoin. Obviously, it's because of the
• 1:16:31
  stable coin angle, but as much as there is uncertainty with
• 1:16:37
  what the Trump administration is doing, and it's hard to see if
• 1:16:40
  this is actually helping us or hurting us, it does seem like
• 1:16:43
  they're trying to change kind of the monetary order.
• 1:16:46
  The best, I guess you could say like conspiracy theory about
• 1:16:49
  this is that Scott Besson, you know, Treasury Secretary is
• 1:16:54
  essentially trying to wrangle in the Fed.
• 1:16:57
  And I know there's this whole myth about the Fed being
• 1:17:00
  independent. Well, now it's it's seemingly
• 1:17:04
  becoming the point where like they're scrapping that whole
• 1:17:07
  idea. And it's like, no, the Fed is
• 1:17:09
  not independent. It's not going to be a private
• 1:17:11
  entity. Like we're going to fully corral
• 1:17:14
  it. We are, we're putting a noose on
• 1:17:16
  it. You know, we're putting a, a
• 1:17:17
  cowboy rope on it and we are, you know, basically going to
• 1:17:21
  force the Fed to do what this administration wants to do.
• 1:17:26
  Hard to argue if this is going to be beneficial for everyone.
• 1:17:29
  But you don't have to really pay attention to all this.
• 1:17:31
  All you got to do is just buy some Bitcoin, take it into cold
• 1:17:34
  storage and let them let their games play out.
• 1:17:37
  This is what it's all about. Like, they're going to play
• 1:17:39
  their games. And a lot of it is noise.
• 1:17:42
  A lot of it is red meat for the base.
• 1:17:45
  So I think being aware of what they're trying to do so that you
• 1:17:49
  can better position yourself is obviously a healthy thing to do.
• 1:17:53
  But in reality, all you really got to do, guys, is stack
• 1:17:55
  Bitcoin, store that Bitcoin, and just continue that process.
• 1:17:59
  It's not enough to just buy Bitcoin once.
• 1:18:01
  You got to continue to save in Bitcoin and this is how you will
• 1:18:04
  be able to survive whatever crazy stuff happens.
• 1:18:07
  So this is where we are. Let's see, everyone's just
• 1:18:13
  trolling. Yeehaw.
• 1:18:13
  All right, Anyways, that's our show for today.
• 1:18:17
  Niko should be back tomorrow unless something else comes up,
• 1:18:22
  but as of now, I think he's coming back.
• 1:18:24
  Chris, thank you so much for coming in today.
• 1:18:26
  It's always a blast, man. Good.
• 1:18:27
  Good to see you on the show. Hopefully I see you in the flesh
• 1:18:31
  soon, but until then man, have a good one.
• 1:18:35
  Have a good one Opti catch you later.
• 1:18:37
  Let's go. All right, guys.
• 1:18:39
  Well, you already know the deal. Make sure you eat some good
• 1:18:43
  food. Honestly, I was telling you
• 1:18:44
  guys, and you guys probably don't care about this, but I am
• 1:18:47
  so hungry right now. I'm going to be a fat boy today.
• 1:18:49
  So I'm not going to say go eat a steak.
• 1:18:51
  I'm going to say just eat whatever makes you happy today
• 1:18:53
  because your boy's so hungry right now.
• 1:18:56
  But I will say make sure you get some sun, even if you're in
• 1:18:59
  areas that don't have sun like everyone else in the chat.
• 1:19:03
  I know you guys are saying it's freezing, maybe get yourself
• 1:19:06
  some red lights. You know, we, we got to make
• 1:19:08
  sure we're healthy in here. Anyways, on that note, I will
• 1:19:11
  see you guys tomorrow. Have a good rest of your day.
• 1:19:13
  Peace out. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:19:16
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:19:19
  mission to enable financial independence.