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Advantage Play & True Persistence Slots with Ari Mizachi · MaxBet Podcast

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Unknown: What's up everybody? Welcome back to the max bet.
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Podcast, high demand Episode Today we're here with Ari
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Mizrahi, senior vice president North America business for tan
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business for tan Gam systems. And when I say hi to man, we I
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was texted by a few people, but one very influential to me, Mr.
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Danningster, who's my head shave leader, team leader. And you
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know, so guy I know and love very much. He said, Hey, there's
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this issue going around the industry right now relative to
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advantage play, and you got to have Ariana talk about this. So
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to your credit, he texted me. I texted like, an hour later, and
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you were like, I'll be there in a week, or two weeks, or
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whatever it was. So very quick. So thanks for answering the bat
0:52
signal or the advantage play signal and joining us. So
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welcome in. Thanks,
0:55
man, thanks for having us. You're welcome. More
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importantly, with Dan, with the shaving head st Baldrick's, he
1:00
actually sponsored my son this year. Oh, I didn't had cancer
1:05
three years ago. Okay, in remission. So he asked, Is it
1:08
okay if you know, I know you guys pick a couple. Yeah,
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sure, my son, well, I didn't know that he had allocated the
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fund. That's awesome. And congrats on the remission.
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That's always good. Sure, that wasn't an easy journey to go
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through. And no How long was the fight? The fight was five
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months. So he had super aggressive cancer. And typically
1:27
with super aggressive with cancer, the chemo as is, as of
1:31
aggressive, sure. So it was really humbling, like World
1:33
Series this year, this year, Freddie Freedman,
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you know, probably going to be the MVP, seems like it. But you
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saw that he has his son had a major issues. This three year
1:43
old had major issues, and seeing him kind of be emotional, crying
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as an interview brought back a lot of memories for us, right?
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So as a parent, you know, it it's hard, yeah, for sure. So
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Well,
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I was intending to talk about that, but I think it's a
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congrats and B, it's good to see that real people are being
2:01
helped, right? I feel like a lot of us do the head shave or just,
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you know, I've been pushing this whole chest wax thing, which is
2:06
a little bit ridiculous, and you go, we're just trying to help.
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And you never really see it like, to be fair to I think a
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lot of the guys that participate, you go, we're just
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doing it because we know at some level it'll be helpful
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somewhere, sure, right? But then they sit here and go, well, it
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helped you. Like, that's, I'm getting a little bit choked up,
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but as it is awesome. Well, shout out to Dan and everyone
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that's helped st Baldrick's over the years. And congrats to your
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boy for being on the right side of it. And I guess congrats to
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you probably sleeping a little easier now with not having to
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worry about all that. Yeah, so awesome. Well, that's good,
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that's heavy, but no, it's good. It's exciting. Well, now I feel
2:37
silly going into advantage playing, but Well, let's get to
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it anyway, so it's so Alright, so this advantage, but you hear
2:44
it all the time, I feel like it's not a new topic,
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necessarily. It's probably just picking up steam start. My
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favorite quote from the office is, explain it to me like I'm
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five. So what? What is advantage play? For somebody that might be
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listening to this has no idea what we're talking
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about. Yeah. So advantage play in a casino is someone that is
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not cheating, right? Not someone that is doing something illegal.
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Advantage play, whether it be in table games, or whether it be in
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slots or any other form of gambling, is somebody that is
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taking advantage of a situation, a game, a mistake by a dealer, a
3:18
game the way it's produced. And what I'll go into with slot
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advantage play is just the makeup of the game, and players
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have found a way to play the game when it is at an
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advantageous state, right? So that's what advantage play is,
3:30
right? People that are not gambling, they're investing,
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they're making wagers that, theoretically, over the long
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run, will make them more money, just like being a casino, you're
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going to make more money in the long run, as long as people
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continue to play, because the house advantage is in your
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favor, right? Advantage players play games when the advantage is
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in their favor.
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Got it. And so they've figured out how to, I guess, sit on the
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sidelines long enough to then observe. And I don't know if
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this is the right analogy for me, what comes to mind is
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counting cards, right? And so it's, you sit there and you say,
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Okay, I'm not going to play necessarily. I'm counting,
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right? Theoretically, I'm counting. And then I go, now I
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know that the deck is running in such a way, or the shoe is
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running in such a way that, if I bet now, my odds of winning are
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tremendous, correct? Almost unbeatable. And so then I get
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in, and I win a bunch of money, and I leave, and I don't sit
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there for the down hands, I just play the good hands, right? Just
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as an example, that's kind of what we're saying, like it's
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some version of that you're waiting for your advantage,
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waiting for your advantage, but when you're counting cards, the
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most advantage you could possibly have is a 2% return.
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Got it right? So if you make $100 wager, the most advantage
4:37
you could have is 2% on on that game, regardless of the count.
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At the most extremes, it's around 2% these situations, that
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positive expected value is actually significantly higher.
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So what would be, I just, I guess, a ballpark of the so it's
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2% in counter cars, was my dumb, dumb example. But for, like,
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what you're talking about, slots and others, how high is that?
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Could be a 20% positive even that's 10 times more. I
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mean, that times. Yeah. Counters. Probably don't count
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cards anymore. They're playing slots, really.
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So okay, so what are they looking for? I mean, I feel like
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this is now the airplane center seat question. I get everywhere
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I go. How do I beat the slots? Yeah, and I always say you
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can't, but maybe you could. So what is it that they're looking
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for? So
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let's go back to my shirt. Yeah, let's go to 1997 I love it. So
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slots, as you and I know it, as most slot players know it, as
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most casino operators know it. Whether I press a button or you
5:30
press a button, we're both going to have the same advantage or
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disadvantage because it's
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an RNG That's right. That's all slots were built. House keeps
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10% or whatever it's
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going to be RNG based, right? So when you think about the game
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designers, what's their goal? When they're designing a game
5:45
there, does their goal is to create games that are engaging,
5:48
that will keep people at the machines longer, and wanting
5:52
them to come back. Sure, I'm assuming that if you are on a
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whiteboard and you were a manufacturer, you'd be like,
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that's your goal. Build something that will keep people
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people
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play it. So there's always an action they want to they want to
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they want more of this. They're going to stay loyal. Play 100%
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sure.
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So as technology has evolved, back in 1997 on the s2 1000s,
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there were two mechanical, real games that were built in a way
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that had a persistence feature that gave the player, at a time
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in its cycle, an advantage in the in the players favor, and
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not the houses. So this was an s2 1000 where the top part of
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the of the cabinet was a digital could be like a screen, and they
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added one game was called Wild Cherry Pie. The other one was
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called Double Diamond mind. Okay, and as the game
6:39
progressed, wild cherry pie had a pie with little red dots, and
6:44
as the game progressed, and a symbol of a cherry landed on the
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reel, it added up there. And what would happen is, once it
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filled up, the bonus had to hit,
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got it so this and in this example, because I think what
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might be confusing to some is we've emulated this idea in a
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lot of games today, but you're saying this was a real thing
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where if I got six cherries on my pie, whatever the number was
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610, cherries. Now the bonus coming Correct? There's not 10,
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and you wait, it's 10, and you're going 10, and you go.
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So what would happen is you'd be playing, right? You're the guy
7:13
that doesn't know any better. You're pounding away. You're
7:15
finally pounding away. I'm standing there, waiting,
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waiting, waiting. You get up. It's in a positive state. I take
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your seat. I start playing. I profit. Yeah, right. So that was
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built a couple of games caused a nuisance for slot operators, but
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you're talking about two game types. Not going to be a real
7:30
problem, right? You're going to deal with some customer service
7:32
issues. Back in day, you probably heard stories of an
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advantage player flicking a cigarette in the lap of the slot
7:38
player. So he gets up and leaves, so now they got to jump
7:40
in in the positive state, yeah, but a very small quantity of
7:43
games, so it really didn't cause a big issue. So
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okay, so this break that open for a second. So what you're
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saying is now the behavior. So the cherry issue isn't actually
7:52
the issue. The issue is, in this scenario, some people know that
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10 cherries equals a bonus. Some people don't. Some are just
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playing the game. They're on a ride. 99% of people would have
8:01
had no idea. But if you knew, then you're just basically, I
8:04
don't know, waiting around the edges to say that's at nine
8:08
cherries. I'm gonna see if I get this guy to move, because I know
8:11
that the next cherries might so I may be a pest, trans or
8:14
whatever, a nuisance to this player that's creating a bad
8:16
customer experience for that person only, so that I can go
8:19
in, reap the rewards, and probably get the hell out of
8:21
there. Use it as an ATM got it? Yeah. Okay, so it's card
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counting for so this first populated back in 9797 wild
8:28
cherry pie. Fast
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forward. And as you probably know, history, though, I work on
8:33
the vendor side, started as a poker dealer working my career
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table. Anyone
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wants Ari story? Go to our first interview. I forgot to mention
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he is a repeat customer, but he's got his whole highlight
8:41
history and his operation side. So I don't want to cut you off
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on that, but there's a whole hour on that, so you can, you
8:46
can dive in, but, but, yes, former operator, so now you're,
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you're living this.
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Yeah. So the reason why I say that is, COVID happens. Our
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company, tangam, decides, with my asking, let's, let's build a
9:01
slot optimization tool. Yep. Problem is, five years ago, I
9:05
didn't know anything about slots. I just, I was always a
9:08
table games poker guy didn't really know. And it's my
9:11
responsibility, with my boss, our developers, to build a
9:15
product. Sure. So in that process of learning and
9:18
discovery, and I always say that this industry is my life's work,
9:21
like, if I want to do something, it's 1,000% or zero. So when I
9:26
got enamored with like, slots, why people play slots, I was all
9:29
in, and I was very lucky with our software to identify this
9:34
problem that I didn't know was a problem. Yeah. So the one thing
9:37
I've learned about gamblers is, in the long run, you're supposed
9:40
to lose, yeah, as long as everything is kosher, you're not
9:42
an advantage player and not a cheat. You're getting taxed on
9:46
whatever wager you level. Yep, that's right. In the long run,
9:48
you lose. So through our software, I started noticing
9:52
players that won on a everyday basis, for the most part,
9:56
unusual amount. And I'm like, well, that doesn't make sense.
9:58
That goes against the grain of. Of a 10% edge. Like, how do you
10:02
how is someone fading this on a game that has a 10% edge? So
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then I started doing some discovery. So in June of 2020 we
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installed our software at a property in the United States.
10:15
Pretty social. Guy. Try to get to know people. I met a pit
10:18
manager at this one particular property, and in this one
10:21
particular probably, they were allowed to play slots on their
10:24
time off. They were, they were, and they still are. So he's
10:26
like, Hey, you see that Bank of games right there? He's like, I
10:29
make an extra 30,000 a year playing that game. And I'm like,
10:32
This guy is a looney tune. Like, what
10:34
do you that's not possible? One, you can't be true. Two, why are
10:36
you telling me? Why?
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Maybe it's just my so I put that in the back of my head. Don't
10:42
think anything about it. Fast forward, a year later, I'm on a
10:47
Vegas Property, offshore property for work. I'm playing
10:50
ultimate Firelink. Yeah, it's one of the games like play. And
10:54
a bum rocks up to me, and he goes, Hey, there's a game over
10:57
there that you can't lose at. And I'm like,
11:00
Who's this guy? Yeah, exactly. Where'd you come from? And I'm
11:02
like, you know, he's
11:03
like, literally holes in his clothes. And I'm like, wait a
11:05
second. I'm like, How much am I gonna invest? He's like, Oh, no,
11:08
more 100 bucks, and I'll guarantee the bonus is no off.
11:10
And I'm like, This is gonna be the
11:12
best $100 I've ever spent. Social experiment of my life,
11:15
exactly. So
11:16
he takes me to the game bonus goes off, and he's like, the
11:19
only deal is, whatever we profit. If you lose, you might
11:21
lose, because it's like, Corning, card counting, but if
11:24
we profit, we'll split it. I'm like, no problem, dude. I was
11:26
gonna give you 100% if we went just for the educated, long
11:29
story short, play for 1015, minutes, we profit $16 I give
11:34
them as eight bucks. I get back, and I'm like, maybe there's
11:37
something about this. But my two experience was like, This can't
11:40
be a real problem. Yeah, we have one guy telling me makes a
11:43
little bit of extra money on his time off at casino he works at,
11:47
and then basically a homeless there's also
11:50
a big swing between 30,000 a year extra on a bank that he's
11:53
eyeballing, yeah, eight bucks each year. Like, what are we
11:56
doing?
11:56
So fast forward another year, and as we're developing our
12:00
tool, that's when I start seeing, wait, there's a lot of
12:03
players with our clients that are winning a consistent base,
12:07
and now I'm like, I am in full discovery mode, like
12:11
these two guys planted a seed with you that maybe they could
12:14
be done, not maybe super convincing, but you're going,
12:16
there's at least a belief out there that they're doing this.
12:18
And then you start seeing the data, and you go, Wait a minute,
12:21
maybe there is something, yeah. Because originally,
12:22
because originally, like, when I lived in Vegas, a guy told me he
12:25
played video poker for a living, and he made like, 35k profit,
12:28
but most of it was from the marketing and gifts and all
12:31
that. And I'm like, that sounds like a life no one wants, right?
12:34
So that's what I thought was the problem. Like people are taking
12:36
advantage or getting points for using their card. They're not
12:40
really extracting cash or benefiting from maybe the
12:43
marketing. Okay, this is just like a video poker player.
12:45
That's what I thought. And then when I started seeing real data,
12:48
I was like, We got problem. The problem for me was I didn't know
12:53
what the games were, what the mechanic of the game was while
12:56
they played. It wasn't a mechanical real like wild cherry
12:59
pie, double diamond. It was games that I didn't know. And
13:04
then I started doing a ton of research. So about three years
13:06
ago, I really went all in and trying to understand, is this a
13:10
problem in our industry, or is it not sure? And I started
13:13
realizing that around just before COVID, one of the
13:18
manufacturers started you know, putting video reels on the floor
13:23
with persistence features similar to the cherry pie won't
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go to. There's about 360 different themes across almost
13:29
every manufacturer that has a persistence feature today. True
13:32
persistence. True persistent, not perceived. Perceived is
13:35
perceived. Funny thing is, some of them have taken perceived and
13:39
added a true which kind of makes it true, and still take
13:42
advantage like we could spend weeks on this subject. So few
13:46
games started understanding it. And unfortunately, in our
13:51
industry, from a manufacturer slots, it becomes a copycat
13:55
business. Sure, those games are on the Eiler support and they're
13:57
doing five times the house average, right? We gotta start
14:00
making those, yeah, we got some. And then every manufacturer
14:02
starts making games with persistence. Why? Because what I
14:05
believe is working, they're bubbling up, for sure. And
14:08
that's the that was the issue, I think, in our industry three
14:11
years ago, was as slot operators, we looked at the
14:14
performance of the game. Game has a 10% house edge has $10,000
14:18
in wagers. We made 1000 bucks. This is awesome. The problem
14:23
with with advantage slot play, and I'll get into more detail,
14:25
is, when you press the button on a non persistence game, you're
14:30
gonna play at a 10% edge. I am complete. RNG, the difference
14:33
with advantage plot games is the money is not equally
14:37
distributed, right? I think of it, and I try to correlate to
14:41
daily fantasy sports. Why does daily fantasy sports not work?
14:45
Because 99% of the money is won by 1% of the players, because
14:51
it's a game skill. So when you build a business model where
14:55
players that are professionals can take advantage of you and I
14:59
that don't know any better. Right? Random guy, random guy.
15:02
Yeah, why do I always lose because I'm playing against a
15:04
computer, some algorithm, right? Poker me against eight
15:07
professionals. I'd lose my shirt for sure, right? So you would
15:09
never run a poker room where you would have eight professionals
15:11
and one recreational player, your business will close very
15:14
quickly. Yeah. So what happens here is these games at face
15:18
value are earning what they're supposed to earn. They're
15:21
performing how they're supposed to earn. The difference here is,
15:24
is they're not the funds are not being distributed equally in an
15:27
RNG way, sure. So that's why it's such a big subject to me.
15:31
That's why Dan and I go back and forth, is that I think of it as,
15:34
there's a there's a there's a risk to the slot economy. Okay,
15:39
right? So you think about all slop players in the world are
15:42
playing. They're going in. They're trusting that I'm going
15:44
to play this game. I know that it has a 10% hold, whether they
15:47
know or don't know, but every time I press it, I know that I
15:50
have the same advantage as a guy next door. You
15:52
feel like you have a fair shake. Whatever that number is, you
15:54
know, this is the deal I've signed up for. I'm going to try
15:57
to stop the story in my favor, but it's a it's called 10% hold.
15:59
We're fine here and
16:00
with some of these true persistence games that have very
16:03
long cycles. And so every truth persistence game is not equal,
16:06
sure, right? There are some truth persistence games that
16:08
only have three cycles and go away. That's not an issue,
16:11
right? If you play a game that you didn't make enough you don't
16:14
have enough money to play the three spins. Well, shame on you.
16:17
Yeah, right, right. Some of these others are tense. 10 spin
16:20
cycles, you have $1 average Bet you didn't put $10 on the
16:24
machine. Shame on you. The guy behind you takes a bit. But then
16:27
you have some of these games that take hundreds and hundreds
16:30
of handle poles, maybe before the thing will go off. And what
16:34
happens there is, if you and I play this game at its base
16:37
state, you and I do not have enough money to experience the
16:41
lows of the game, yeah? Because at its base state, the reason
16:44
why I say at its base state, if a persistence game has a 10%
16:48
house edge, it's very different than everything that I just
16:51
mentioned. In order for the game to have a 10% house edge, and
16:55
there be a way for somebody to take advantage of it, think of
16:58
it as a pendulum. Yeah? So if you're playing the game only
17:00
when it's Hey, it's a 5% house edge. That means that the
17:03
pendulum has a swing completely the other way for the novice
17:07
player, maybe they're playing the game at a 15% house edge.
17:09
Maybe they're playing the game at a 25% house edge. And the
17:12
reason why I say that that's a threat to the slot economy is
17:15
that there's always this internal debate of, do players
17:18
feel house edge, right? Yeah. There's these arguments you have
17:21
these AI geniuses are saying, No, dude, all this analysis.
17:24
Well, yeah, you can't really feel anything between 9.5 and
17:27
10, but once you get to 10.3 people can start feeling
17:30
whatever the work is done. We're talking about games. That could
17:33
be a 25% when someone's playing it. And if you're debating about
17:38
your property, saying, I want a lot of time on the vice because
17:40
I'm a local property, and I want people to be able to play well,
17:44
then how could you have games at its base state? And I don't know
17:47
the exact numbers. I'm not the designer, but it's it could be
17:50
15, it could be 20, could be 25 it could be 30. And so that's
17:54
the issue. So fast forward, right? I identified that there
17:58
were these, these players winning money, and then we were
18:01
able to cross reference all the games they played. Got it. And
18:04
then any true advantage player, they don't gamble, they invest.
18:09
So a card counter will never wager on anything unless it's a
18:12
positive expected return for them. Sure, same thing with a
18:14
solid advantage player. So we were able to see all the games
18:17
that they played. So they kind of like helped us well, and I
18:20
won't. I don't really want to talk about themes, because I
18:22
don't want anybody to be bad, unless you want me to talk about
18:25
themes. It
18:25
doesn't bother me. I think here's the thing, if it's
18:27
factual, we're not really saying it's not out there. I guess more
18:31
we can avoid it for now. But I think for me, it's like, what is
18:35
tipping these guys off? I think that's more my issue. Because
18:38
you said, like, in some of the games you gave me, like, were
18:40
10, I could kind of imagine the theme where you look at, I think
18:42
that's like a scarab game, correct, right? So you say,
18:44
look, which, to me, is actually not a problem in the AP World
18:47
Fair, but, and it's a fun game, like, I remember playing it
18:49
quite a bit. And so you say, Okay, well, this makes sense. I
18:51
remember, I don't know anymore, but, like, I remember there was
18:54
a time where that was, if it wasn't the top game, it was in
18:56
the top eylers charts. And so people go, Well, we should
18:58
emulate that. But and that, I guess, to me, was obvious,
19:01
because I remember, even as a player, you go, well, 10 spins.
19:03
And you know, if you don't to your point earlier, if you don't
19:05
pay to get your 10 spins, and that's on you. That's on you.
19:08
But I guess for some of these longer spin, like, I don't know
19:10
if it's hundreds or however many you said, How does somebody
19:13
know, like, I get what, what I mean? Maybe you use a theme as a
19:16
reference, or not. It's up to you. But like, I just feel like,
19:18
what is, what is out there that somebody could walk up and go,
19:21
Ah, yeah,
19:22
yeah. So, so it's a good question. So most, most of the
19:24
some of these games with the game math, and I'll pick the
19:26
first one just because why not. And it's a game that isn't on
19:30
many floors anymore. IGT, sex breaker, so I don't know if you
19:32
know the game or not, but the game starts at, say, I don't
19:37
know. 243 ways. 1024 ways. And as the game progresses, an arrow
19:42
will land in one of the five reels. And once the arrow lands,
19:45
that that one reel goes up a notch, and it goes from x,
19:49
amount of ways to y, amount away. Yeah, that's right. And it
19:51
grows, yeah. Well, when it grows, the math of the game
19:53
changes, right? So if you're playing the game 1000 ways, and
19:56
I'm playing the game of 4000 ways, I have a better chance. Of
20:00
making money than you absolutely and then ultimately, once the
20:03
arrow the reel goes all the way to the top, there's like a bonus
20:06
symbol or a mystery bonus, whatever the case may be. And
20:10
then once the arrow hits on that reel, it goes off. So what
20:13
happens is, people that are way smarter than you and I reverse
20:16
engineer the math and say, at this state, the game has a
20:21
positive expected value. So, and that information is free Google
20:25
it, yeah. So
20:26
in this example, that game has said, Okay, once the reels have
20:31
grown X amount, right? So whether it's by real or however
20:33
many positive spaces we're in, right? Because now we know that
20:37
that's where we're on the plus side of this equation, versus
20:40
the beginning, where you're probably on the minus
20:42
side, right? So in order for that game, which maybe that's a
20:44
10% house, I said, I don't know what, just pretend it does.
20:47
Yeah, it can't have a 10% house edge at its base state, and it
20:50
can't have it when it's all the way
20:52
to the top, yep, average of that. So when it average? So
20:56
you and I, that don't know any better, are going to say, Oh,
20:58
that's a cool cabinet. That's cool. Graphics, yeah, music
21:01
sounds good. Interesting
21:02
model combination I'm playing, yeah?
21:05
But with advantage, slot play is you as a recreational player,
21:08
will almost never find it when it's at a positive state,
21:12
because there's pro AP players across every casino across the
21:16
United States sitting in the wings waiting to find it. And
21:20
that's the problem, right? So the the math of the game works?
21:24
Yep, the design of your game makes sense in the i gaming
21:27
space. It makes perfect sense to me, because I don't know if you
21:30
know this or not, when you play I gaming, persistence games,
21:33
it's Mike's game. So say you Play HEX breaker online, arrows
21:38
go up on the $2 wager, because every wager, every D nom and
21:41
every bet has a different screen for it to be true. For
21:44
assistance, that has to be the case. So say you're playing a $2
21:48
wager in I gaming, and it's all the way to the top, and you're
21:51
like, I gotta stop playing because I gotta have dinner.
21:53
Yep, you could come back tomorrow. That game is still at
21:56
the state that you left. It
21:58
interesting. So there's like, a memory feature, basically, that
22:00
says, Even if I log off and come back, that's my hex breaker, and
22:03
it's
22:03
personal persistence. Yep, so interesting. Personal
22:06
persistence makes all the
22:08
sense to me, because there's no whatever piranha or behavior or
22:11
whatever parasite behavior, but in brick and mortar can't
22:13
happen, yeah? Because so and then I guess, to the one of the
22:15
issues I'm hearing is that you play whether you know what
22:18
you're doing or not, you're out of money, right? You leave.
22:20
Doesn't matter. I pick up where you left off, exactly, right,
22:23
interesting. So you have people that are just standing behind
22:26
these games, and they're using as a meet, as ATM, so that's
22:30
three years ago, right? I'm like, I found something. I don't
22:33
know how big of a problem is, but I will continue studying
22:36
this. And the catalog of games grew and grew more and grew more
22:42
and newer. Manufacturers probably looking at the report
22:46
saying, sure, hey, persistence works. Let's build some games.
22:48
And it kept on growing and growing to where there's about
22:51
350 themes today. When I started doing looking at this stuff four
22:56
years ago, maybe there was 50 themes. Now there's like 350 and
23:00
again, it's not, I don't think it's anything that anyone's done
23:04
wrong. It's that advantage players are always seven steps
23:07
ahead of us.
23:08
Yeah. So okay, so then today you have these themes. So what I'm,
23:13
I'm gonna just ask is, I don't make the assumption, are then,
23:16
are we still seeing true persistence games on the top of
23:19
the charts? Yes. Yes. Okay, and
23:22
so what we've studied is that, so a true persistence game.
23:26
We've got to think about this way. One is a game comes out.
23:29
It's cool cabinet, cool themes, cool music. You're getting
23:33
volume from your rec player, but then you're getting increased
23:37
volume from your AP player. So it's almost some inflated coin
23:41
in what we've studied is those games very like when you think
23:46
about the life cycle of a game, right? Yep, you know, you would
23:50
hope a manufacturer would build something that lasts forever,
23:52
but they don't, right? There's some games that would stand
23:55
well, they hope so too. To be fair, the reality is, most of
23:58
these games fall off after a quarter or so, and then you got
24:00
to cycle them out. And what
24:01
we've studies is the ones with true percent true persistence
24:03
fall off much faster than anything else interesting,
24:05
because you play the game at that 1520, 30% edge, you're
24:08
like, I'm not playing that game again. Didn't like that ride.
24:11
Yeah, my money went burned through it too quickly. And so I
24:14
think as players cycle through these games, they stop coming
24:18
back. When they stop coming back, then the APS can't play
24:20
them because there's no cycle in those games for them to take
24:23
advantage. So it's that kind of when
24:24
the operator goes, this isn't working, switch out, so
24:26
it's quick dive. So the problem with this is one, I think of it,
24:30
and I'm not economists, and I come from the school of hard
24:33
knocks, is that there's a slot economy, yeah, and there's a pie
24:36
Yep. And every day in a regular casino, if you're holding 9%
24:40
you're taxing that coin in at 9% of your recreational players. If
24:45
you add these games, you're starting to take that pie and
24:48
tax them at a much higher percent. Interesting. And then,
24:51
you know, and the long term plays in the short run. Hey, I
24:54
don't care who wins the money. I'm holding 10% Yeah, my opinion
24:58
is you probably should care. So two things. One is, I come from,
25:03
from the school of table games, right? Where there has been
25:06
millions, if not billions, of dollars spent on table games,
25:10
advantage play and table games, shading, right? Old school, like
25:13
you can never these old school guys call it their store. It's
25:15
not because, you know, they call it a store. You can't come into
25:18
my store and take advantage of me, or else, you know, whatever,
25:20
bad things happen, and if that happens, you have supervisors
25:25
that look at these games, pit managers, shift managers,
25:27
directors, surveillance. The whole world, there's conferences
25:30
galore about table games that there's zero about slots. Why?
25:33
Because when a table games person takes advantage of a
25:36
table, you're taking it from the house. When a slot advantage
25:40
player takes advantage of a slot, they take it from the
25:42
other customers
25:44
I see, so at the end, because over time, the house is going to
25:47
get their money, it's all going to get to the 10% but in this
25:50
scenario, you may be getting something, and I'm paying for
25:53
you to get it. It's
25:54
your regular customers that are playing this game that don't any
25:56
other priming this game for someone else to take advantage
26:00
of it. And what we've discovered is, you know, in a hyper
26:04
competitive gaming market that is the United States, you have
26:08
companies with very high tier statuses, and you could get
26:11
rooms and food and flights and all that. And the majority of
26:16
our industry, you look at a player's theoretical value,
26:18
right? Mike came in, he cycled through 10k and coin in 10%
26:23
outside, she's worth 1000 bucks. Well, what do I give? Mike,
26:25
yeah. Well, what if I told you that $1,000 that that person
26:29
cycle through their expected win loss is, is a loss to you of
26:34
$500 yeah? You like, well, I don't want that. I want to bring
26:37
so you have, yeah. So you have a lot of people now that are
26:40
basically quitting their jobs and using these machines as
26:45
ATMs, reaping the benefits from marketing programs. And on
26:51
paper, it all looks okay. And that's why it's like a really
26:54
contentious conversation, because you're like, all right,
26:57
what are you talking about? The game holds 10%
26:59
Well, yeah, so I think that's I'm trying to understand. So
27:02
when you look at that, you say, well, on paper, something, they
27:04
don't care, but they're not going to notice it as much,
27:06
because it's right. Well, I'm still making my 10% sorry. Do I
27:09
really care if it was Mike or Ari who won the money? Maybe,
27:12
historically, I don't, because I won my piece. But then what I'm
27:16
hearing you say is where this is starting to become a problem,
27:19
right? Is to we both get rewarded, yes, and you may be
27:24
the I'm making you the smart one in this scenario, you're the
27:27
advantage player, and it's we're going to give you all these
27:29
comps and benefits and marketing dollars or free player,
27:31
whatever. The thing is that we've opted to use as your
27:34
award, and I'm actually not going to get the return on that,
27:36
right. So you're going to take not only the money out of the
27:39
game, but then you're going to come back and take your free
27:41
play, hotel, steak dinner, whatever, and whatever, and
27:43
you're also still going to win, because you're actually not
27:45
going to lose back what I thought you were going to lose
27:47
back to pay for all those
27:48
amenities. Yeah, so, I mean, when I go back to the old school
27:50
days, is that you would never want to own a business, whether
27:53
it's a casino or a 711 where a person's going to walk through
27:57
the door and never give you any money, right? An advantage slot
28:01
player will only win in the long run, they will never lose. So
28:08
theoretically, how are you okay with that, right? How are you
28:10
okay with a person coming in, potentially creating a pretty
28:15
poor experience for your regular customers? Which happens, which
28:18
actually happened yesterday to me, I was walking the slot for
28:21
at a casino that I'm staying at, not to mention, that's right,
28:24
and a meth head came up and said, there's a game in a
28:26
positive state. Do you have any money and we could play? And I'm
28:29
like, Yeah, this is perfect, because I flew here to talk
28:31
about this. That's right, yeah. I'm like, how I should have
28:33
filmed it, yeah?
28:34
Side note, it's interesting to me, what kind of people approach
28:37
you. You got a very, very interesting family, yeah?
28:40
Clearly, that's okay, yeah. But yeah, so that's So, what do we
28:46
do?
28:47
So I think operators just truly have to understand and
28:49
collaborate, right? So again, not all true persons games are
28:53
bad. I think the ones that operators need to really think
28:58
about are the long cycle ones, the ones that take a ton of coin
29:02
in to get to a positive state, and then potentially a lot of
29:06
coin in to make that event happen an individual person. So
29:10
again, with the stuff that we do, we look at like average
29:13
rated session time at a game, okay, a Holden spin game, like
29:18
Dragon link and lock it link and all these other link, they spend
29:21
about seven minutes, right? Seven minutes per session, and
29:25
then move on picking your game. Well, in a true persistence
29:28
game, if you find a game at a base state, you might spend
29:32
3040, 50 minutes until it happens because, but you don't
29:35
care, because you're investing,
29:36
but that's that's somebody that knows it's coming, so they're
29:39
going to spend half an hour more, because I know if I just
29:41
keep going the must hit by is there or the whatever it is, is
29:44
there? Yeah,
29:44
right. So the person that's the wreck that averages 7896,
29:48
minutes, they're never gonna experience. They're still always
29:50
seven minutes. Yeah, they're playing seven minutes, right?
29:53
They got, they got 42 minutes to play. They want to play nine
29:55
games, and they're going, right. That's just the way it is, which
29:59
actually does. COVID. We weren't going to hold you on that there.
30:04
So they're moving around anyway. But then the idea is, so is that
30:07
what some of the metrics you start to pick up? We go, Wait a
30:10
minute, this guy's winning a lot. He spent 40 minutes on
30:12
whatever this game is, and now we got to look at that game.
30:16
Yeah. So then it just became easy after that way, well, once
30:19
you could put the model together of identifying players that are
30:23
taking advantage, cross referencing what they're
30:25
playing. And then we've built a catalog of 350 games. And now we
30:30
could be in, you know, we're able to then cross reference
30:33
players that are dominant to those games. Give me a list of
30:35
all the customers, and 99.9 out of 100 times, it's all advantage
30:42
players.
30:43
Yeah. So I guess I mean, and maybe this isn't where we make
30:46
recommendations, but I'm looking at this going, Okay, so we've
30:49
created this scenario that exists, and it's beneficial for
30:53
everyone except the rec player, because a casino's still making
30:56
their money. Advantage players making their money. The vendors
30:58
are loving it, because I'm on the top of the Irish charge,
31:00
right? So it's like, where's the negative? Well, the negative is,
31:03
you know, Mom and Dad down the road didn't win, and they're the
31:05
ones that can't come back next time, because they didn't
31:07
win anything. And those are the people, in the long run, that
31:09
really pay our bills, yeah, well, first they pay the vendor
31:11
bills, they pay the casino
31:12
bills, right? And you don't want them to have a well, because
31:15
they'll stop gambling if they believe they can't win, if every
31:17
time they come in, they just lose, it's like, eventually it's
31:19
like, I'm done, right? And so I get that, but I guess so then,
31:23
what tweaks can we make? Because I don't, I mean, I don't know
31:25
that you can just stop making the games, yeah? I mean, maybe,
31:28
but I feel like if they're working, there's a market for
31:30
them, unless you say they're only working because of these
31:32
guys. Yeah.
31:33
I mean, I have a strong opinion, and give it to him, yeah. I
31:35
mean, I think long cycle Trooper, since games, there's no
31:39
they don't work in the long run, right? So you had a game that
31:44
was number one of the iler's own for a long time, and they're now
31:47
being pulled out of most casinos because that it went like that,
31:50
right? Like, people got super excited about it, super excited
31:53
about it. Everybody's buying more of these cabinets. Is great
31:56
as great as great. And then eventually the rec player was
31:59
like, Okay, I tried it twice. I like the theme because it was
32:03
part of a theme of another catalog. But this mechanic, man,
32:06
every time I play, I just lose my money fast. So it will
32:10
eventually work itself out. What I try to advise to our clients
32:15
and to the casino operators, nine out of 10 of these games
32:19
are owned games. They're not least Sure. So you're buying a
32:22
cabinet with a theme that you're being promised is 3.7 house, or
32:25
whatever it is, I'm like, but what happens when it goes to
32:28
point five in a very short period of time, right? So you
32:31
put your you're allocating all this capital to own. It's
32:35
because these themes are doing well where I kind of already
32:38
know, right? And I walked the floor today, and I found a new
32:42
manufacturer that added, and I'm like, that will be gone in three
32:45
months, even though it was very popular right now, because you
32:48
have the rec player, that's a new cool cabinet, and then you
32:50
have the APS weighted to pounce. And I think that's the again, I
32:55
go back to the slot economy. See, I started my career in
32:58
poker right when I was being mentored 20 something years ago,
33:02
and they said, If you ever run a poker room, don't ever offer no
33:04
limit Hold'em, which I know is comical, because if you go to
33:07
now it's every day, all you get but the reason why this older
33:09
gentleman told me that he's like Ari, if you have a poker room
33:12
full of four, eight limit hold no, one goes broke, no, right?
33:16
You can't go broke playing for eight limb, right? You can have
33:19
a good time. You might lose 100 bucks on the zoo Bucha. But if
33:21
you offer no limit, that poker economy could shrink quickly.
33:26
Now this person is before the money maker effect and all that
33:29
poker got so big that it didn't matter anymore. But back in the
33:32
day, in the 90s, when I got into poker, it was a small Nick. It's
33:35
the same idea as what you're saying. It's the same ideas that
33:37
you want to keep you want to protect your wrecks, because the
33:40
wrecks, the ones that pay your bills, the ones that and if you
33:43
don't protect your wrecks. Because another thing I was also
33:45
mentored in poker was when I started opening up poker rooms,
33:48
they said, don't worry about the professionals. If you take a
33:52
business and take care of your wrecks, the professionals will
33:56
come and you'll have a great poker room. If you base a poker
33:59
room just on professionals, you won't have much business, right?
34:02
So for me, this is so near to my heart, because it's like, you
34:08
got the guy or gal that that earned their money, they come to
34:11
your casino with $100 in the hopes of winning something,
34:14
yeah,
34:14
blow up some steam, maybe win a few bucks, have a beer or two,
34:16
or whatever, their thing is waiting, yeah,
34:17
30% house edge, right? And it's like, because they didn't know
34:20
that. Yeah, that's right, we could say shame on that person.
34:23
Well,
34:23
I mean, yeah, I don't know. It's hard to put the shame right,
34:26
because you sit there and you go, well, the game in itself.
34:29
There's nothing inherently wrong with I get you're saying like
34:32
that. It's better, except
34:33
to experience the full cycle to get to 10% I know you. Oh, a
34:37
singular person cannot experience the full cycle, they
34:41
don't have enough money or time got it, and the game should be
34:44
built where it's personal persistence, as we talk about
34:46
eye gaming, or it's 10, game cycle, three, game cycle. Sure,
34:51
once you get to the really long cycle games, it's just
34:54
impossible. It's physically whether it's time on device or
34:58
they don't have enough money in their pocket, yep. They're never
35:00
going to experience the lows, to eventually experience the highs
35:03
and be like, this was a great experience. Because the only
35:06
thing that's great about those games is when you get to that
35:08
top experience, yeah, not when you're playing at a base day and
35:11
you're just getting completely hammered, yeah? So it's like,
35:14
you're kind of giving a disservice, and at the end, when
35:16
you look at just numbers and data, you're like, I don't
35:18
understand, it held 10% it's a great game,
35:20
yeah. Well, that's fair. I think so. Okay. So like on the
35:23
potentially, the vendors can reevaluate whether they want to
35:26
make these long, long persistence games or not. If,
35:29
right now the behavior tends to be, hey, it's working. I'm going
35:31
to make them right. So that's, I think that's probably most
35:34
people got smart, right. But then so that the ops, the second
35:37
option would be to caution or educate the operator say, Well,
35:39
wait a minute. They may be working now, but short shelf
35:42
life, so maybe you have to evaluate, do you want a 90 day
35:45
boom for a almost certain bust, correct? Or do you want to just
35:48
take a different attack and say, Well, maybe pick a different
35:51
game that's perceived persistence. It gives a little
35:53
bit of a chase, but it'll stay longer. Yes. So they have to be,
35:55
I don't say, old enough, but like they're grown ups. They can
35:57
make that choice, whether they want to buy those games or not,
35:59
I guess. Yeah. And there's one
36:00
thing that I think is missing. So to the manufacturer's
36:03
defense, they don't get patron data. Sure, they can't. They
36:06
don't know what customers really like. And I mean, they could do
36:09
focus groups and all that stuff, but they don't get session
36:13
level, rating level data and truly understand how long a
36:15
person plays and all they don't. Casinos don't offer that
36:18
information to manufacturers, so they just see the result, hey,
36:21
the game is popular. It's making money. Let's make more. Got a
36:24
marketing post, because I'm number three or whatever. Yeah,
36:26
exactly. If I was in charge of product, I'd be like, make more
36:28
though. Exactly, yeah. They're making a short decisions with
36:31
the data they have, what we're able to do, or, you know, with
36:35
with when you take performance data and you marry it with
36:39
session level data, ratings data, you can look at things
36:42
like loyalty. And what I have never found for any long
36:45
persistence game is a non advantage player that is loyal
36:50
to a true persistence game. Yeah, and that's when the light
36:53
bulb for me went off, got it, and I'll tell you my last story,
36:55
which I think is completely comical. So again, I come from a
36:58
school hard knocks, pretty whenever I walk the floors, I'm
37:03
always looking in every direction to try to learn. So at
37:05
the height of me learning all this, I visited a client in
37:10
Pennsylvania, and the one of the true attributes of an advantage
37:15
slot play is they would fast tap the game. They're not interested
37:18
in playing. They're not here for the ride. They want the money.
37:20
Yeah, just get me to the bonus I profit or not, and I'm on the
37:23
next one. So I walked by a bank of games on a way to a meeting,
37:27
but I had some time, and out of the corner of my eye, I noticed
37:31
two guys pretty well dressed, well dressed like you. Thank
37:33
you. In a place where people aren't really that well dressed,
37:36
right, exactly, and one guy was standing the other guy was
37:38
playing, and the guy that was playing was not engaged in the
37:42
game, banging it, having a casual conversation. Gamblers
37:45
that really gamble do not Yeah, they're in it. They're focusing,
37:48
right? I'm in it, right? I'm playing, and he's playing, and
37:50
he's fast tapping. And then I turn and look, and it's a game
37:53
that I didn't know, because it's a brand new game. And I'm like,
37:55
Oh, this must be a true persistence. This must again,
37:57
this is all in my discovery. So maybe, because I'm from
38:00
Brooklyn, I'll just go up to anyone and talk, because maybe
38:03
that's just how New Yorkers are. So when he finally gets into his
38:06
bonus and is done, I'm like, Hey, are you a slotted Vantage
38:08
player? And a guy's like, What are you talking about? Like, and
38:11
I'm like, Dude, I don't work here. Like, I'm
38:12
just not allowed to tell me, yeah. So
38:14
I'm like, no, no, no. I was like, this is a, you know,
38:16
something new that I'm trying to learn. Is this real? And I don't
38:19
know, maybe they got a liking to me, and they kind of explained
38:23
it all. And they're like, this world is a lot bigger than you
38:27
think. You just scratched the surface. And they're like, in
38:29
the last three years, we've made over a million dollars cash.
38:32
He's like, I was like, Oh, you don't use a players card, you
38:34
know? She's like, why would I use a player's card when I could
38:37
just use this as an ATM, yeah, why do I need them to know that
38:39
I'm winning money? Because I'm just an unrated play. And the
38:42
most of these wins are untaxable, right? Because you're
38:46
just getting into a $2 bonus, you're gonna get like, 300 bucks
38:49
like that stuff doesn't trigger an event to where I need your
38:53
ID. So most of those transactions at the lower end
38:56
for advantage players, they're there. If you say, Oh, I'm gonna
39:00
not give you marketing, I'm not gonna give you free play. I'm
39:02
not gonna let you stay in our hotel room. They're like, No
39:04
problem. I'll be back tomorrow, and just wasn't here before
39:07
anyway. Yeah, and that's the misconception. So there's been
39:09
many podcasts about, like, slot events. Oh, they're taking
39:11
advantage of your marketing. That's a small component of slot
39:14
advantage play, but that's not what I'm this is a much bigger
39:17
problem than somebody taking advantage of your free play
39:19
offers. Yeah? And they basically said that they're able to
39:23
reverse engineer the games as soon as they hit the floor. They
39:25
know about these games before everybody else. He had no reason
39:29
to lie to me, and he's the one that planted the final seed for
39:31
me to do all the research. And then what he told me was true,
39:35
yeah. And I was like, there are people that are making 20, 3040,
39:40
$50,000 a month, just playing slots. And when I knew that it
39:45
was true was about a year and a half ago, I was in Las Vegas. So
39:48
our next poker pro from Pennsylvania parks I used to
39:51
work at, and he's like, yeah, he goes, we don't play poker
39:54
anymore. We just play these things. And I'm like, doing
39:56
these. It really is a problem. And then the last thing was, we
39:59
saw. Were a direct correlation between baccarat players and
40:03
slot advantage so historically, baccarat players didn't play
40:07
slots playing a game with a very low house edge to 11% Yeah,
40:11
right. So now we see that there's a ton of baccarat
40:14
players that are slot advantage players. And if all these
40:18
symptoms aren't really a problem, then maybe I'm just
40:22
really wrong here. I
40:22
think everybody agrees there's a problem. I think it's just
40:25
trying to figure out. I think part of the stimulus for this is
40:27
like, get a conversation going. How do you fix it? Right?
40:30
Because you could argue, make different games right, but
40:32
they're gonna argue these games work, right? Then you could say,
40:35
well, you know, make that choice if you're willing to have that
40:37
boom. But figure out, as an operator, are you willing to put
40:40
your rec players through that cycle? So maybe, maybe if they
40:44
clue in, they go, you know, maybe it's not worth it. I don't
40:46
want to take the money from the locals and give it to the one
40:49
guy who's going to never spend it with me again. Seems like a
40:51
bad, you know, economic move, and there's but is there any way
40:54
to police these players behavior? I mean, obviously
40:56
they're not flicking cigarettes on you anymore. That would
40:58
probably be legal. They don't want to get kicked out, right?
41:01
Well, you want you at the beginning. This isn't a isn't
41:03
illegal. It's frowned upon, that's what it's not, yeah. So,
41:05
so
41:05
some hours, like, we're going to kick the players out. I'm like,
41:07
Okay, but how do you manage that? So in table games, what'd
41:09
they do wrong? You have a dealer or supervisor, pit manager,
41:12
shift manager, like, eyes on a person, sure. Okay, you're
41:14
telling me I can't play here anymore. I'll be back tomorrow
41:16
in some random zone. Yeah, right. Who's going to know them
41:19
there? That's fair, right? So that it's hard to police that,
41:22
right? We're gonna take their marketing away. That doesn't
41:24
really stop them from coming. You know, my opinion is, I, we
41:31
don't have a client that has more than 11% of their floor
41:34
with true persistence. So when you think about
41:37
is that seeing that still seems like a high number. What's an
41:39
average like for I guess if somebody wasn't aware of this,
41:41
what does that end
41:42
up? As low as like 7% as high as 11, it's right, because they're
41:45
not a lot of those games relative to all other themes
41:47
that are out there. So I think that, do you want a business
41:52
where people could walk through the door every day knowing
41:55
they're taking money out of your slot machine? Yeah, I think
41:59
everybody would say absolutely not sure, right? You got to
42:02
service that customer. You got to give them free drinks they
42:05
might get cause of past experience. And I know
42:08
unequivocally they, in the long run, will take money out of it,
42:12
because, yeah, not taking it from my pocket, to take it from
42:14
the rec player's pocket, but I know that they can never give me
42:18
$1 Sure. Why do I want that as a business fair.
42:21
So you have, I don't know. I know it's north of 100 customers
42:25
that you advise as your company you're obviously interested in.
42:28
You're kind of leading the charge on this advantage play.
42:30
Have you taken customers down? So basically, saying you're my
42:35
client, I'm advising you. You have 11% we got to drop that
42:38
down. Let's call it 7% now. Is the other in the window, and has
42:42
those dollars been spent? Like, have you basically said, if a if
42:44
a customer? Because what I'm imagining an operator would say,
42:47
I guess what I'm trying to build to is, well, I can't get rid of
42:49
these games, because then they're not going to play here.
42:51
They're not going to that. It's not as easy as saying, I'm going
42:53
to take the persistence dollar out and put it in a perceived
42:56
game or a different game. They
42:57
they go somewhere else, they
42:58
go but they go somewhere else within the casino. So the game
43:00
or they're going to leave the bill go to another Casino. Yes.
43:02
Casino. Yeah. So you so as an operator, theoretically you
43:04
would lose that dollar advantage plateau. It may not be $1 you
43:08
want, but in a world where spreadsheets are ruining
43:09
everything, that spreadsheet is going to look
43:11
worse, yeah. So in the short run, so again, I said it this
43:14
economic problem for sure, and I'm not smart enough to be an
43:17
economist, but in the long run, this will shrink our slot
43:21
economy, unless marketers are really good at replacing
43:24
customers and stop playing at some point, if you have a
43:28
smaller percentage of the population taking the most of
43:31
the money, that pie will shrink. Yeah, in the short run, your
43:35
coin in will go down. Yeah, because they're going to go next
43:38
door. Yeah, right, but that customer will never give you $1
43:41
in revenue. And that that's what's important to me as a own,
43:45
as a as an operator of sure, because you know is that I don't
43:48
want to service you if I know that I'm always just giving you
43:50
money. Yeah, right. That's, that's a one way road, so that
43:53
your $1,000 in coin in or $10,000 in coin in that I would
43:56
get a theoretical win from if that goes away, I, as an owner,
44:00
have to be okay with that, sure. And so we've had a client that
44:03
actually went from X percent to zero, okay? And they couldn't be
44:08
happier.
44:10
And I mean, obviously they had you kind of walking them through
44:12
the pros and cons of this, it sounds like, but how far? I
44:16
mean, let's just pretend, for the sake of example, they took a
44:18
10% floor share to 0% floor share, because it's round
44:21
numbers, how much of the dollars walked out, so they didn't lose
44:24
a nickel in profit. So that's good. Oh, in profit, yeah. So
44:26
you're saying, Look, you gotta look at your profit, yeah, for
44:29
the bank, right? And change, yeah, that makes sense. So your
44:31
coin and went down, but because you weren't losing exclusively,
44:33
you actually profited, either the same or more correct. I
44:35
think that's helpful. I mean, it was like,
44:38
you know, one, they believed in it to the results spoke for
44:40
themselves, and three is selfishly for a slot operators,
44:44
like, I don't kind of deal with the phone calls of this person
44:46
trying to kick me off of the game, yeah, for sure, right? And
44:49
it happens, right? I mean, there are some games that are at a
44:52
state that you're guaranteed. Like, think about the old
44:55
Ainsworth, most must say, buys, which were like our Trooper
44:57
says, but again, back in the. Day, it wasn't a problem,
45:01
because those were the only things you could really take
45:03
advantage of. Now, advantage players will take advantage of
45:05
those, sure, because it's just another ATM, yep. So you know
45:09
dollar Dino Ainsworth must hit by must hit at 10k. When it gets
45:14
to like nine, I think the numbers like $9,902 it becomes
45:19
positive. EV starts at nine hits at 10. I don't know if that's
45:22
the right number. There's a there's a line, there's a
45:24
number, right? So when it gets to a certain number, I would pay
45:27
you if you were sitting there to get away. Yeah, right. Here's
45:29
500 bucks, dude, like you're not, you're paying $2 to spend.
45:32
You don't know what's going on. Pretend
45:33
you won. Let me, I'm like, dude, here's
45:35
500 See you later, and I and I cash out 10,000 right? So do you
45:39
want that? No, I mean, I don't want that. No, it doesn't
45:42
seem like you do. I just think, what I'm trying to get to now is
45:45
you say, look, let's say, let's say people listen to this. Go, I
45:47
get it. I'm convinced. Unless it's the CFO sitting on the on
45:51
the pod going, Well, I still don't want my coin in going
45:53
down, right, right, like they all answer to somebody, and
45:55
there's going to be a metric there. That's not the right way
45:58
to do it. But the reality is, there's a metric they're
46:00
managing to So, to your point, profitability, that should be
46:02
the idea, but so you
46:03
nailed it, right? So I think in our industry, and I'm new to
46:06
slots five years, you know, floor average is the KPI, yeah,
46:10
it's how you guys sell slots, for sure. Is it the right KPI?
46:13
And if I asked someone, they were like, well, I don't know.
46:14
That's what we've always used, yeah. And I would challenge
46:17
every operator, is that the right KPI? Yeah?
46:19
I mean, I think, you know, we had Kevin on sweet back when he
46:22
was when Cosmo was still independent, and he talked
46:25
about, he goes, Look, I really try to look at, to your point
46:27
about profitability, because he goes, Look, you can give me a
46:29
rev share game or a sold game, and your bar goes up higher. But
46:32
it's really about, I'd rather lease it if it's still going to
46:35
make me more than my own game, right? So, so there are people
46:37
out there doing that. I pick on him because he's a friend of the
46:40
show, but like, but they're also probably some that are going, I
46:42
just need my coin in to be what it is, and that's all we're
46:45
driving here, because they probably don't take as much time
46:47
to go into. They got other things they're focused on,
46:49
right? So, like, yeah. And
46:50
for me, as these games continue to grow, and they are because
46:54
it's kind of just, it's working, it's in a vicious cycle where,
46:57
top of the report, let's create more. Topic report, let's create
47:00
more. I'm not an economist, but there will be a point where,
47:04
like, how come mike doesn't come anymore, yeah, how come Mario
47:07
doesn't come anymore, for sure, and now marketing has to work 10
47:11
times harder, yeah, because you think about excavation
47:14
campaigns, re acquisition or acquisition campaigns and all
47:17
this to get more players. Are like, Why are we losing players
47:19
faster? And I believe if that 10% of the floor goes to 20%
47:24
we're in a heap of trouble. Yeah,
47:25
makes sense. We're in a heap of trouble. So just to kind of
47:28
summarize, this is a real issue. Your recommendation is, get
47:32
these games. Get the long term games off. There's some there's
47:35
a world where some persistence is fine, but like longer term
47:37
less good. But I'm hearing at a minimum, just know what you're
47:41
doing. I think,
47:41
is that you know, for me, the goal, and I appreciate you
47:44
having me is, yeah, for sure, having this thought operators
47:47
that are having this conversation with vendors is,
47:49
just have an informed conversation. What's it? Instead
47:51
of being like, oh, it's not with a, you know, report I'm gonna
47:54
get, I'll take a bank of six, like, just ask a question, Hey,
47:57
what are my risks? Because the vendor owes that to the person
48:00
that they're selling to. They owe it, right? It's a
48:02
relationship, for sure. And so what I've learned is that some
48:05
of the so many people selling it don't truly understand the
48:09
problem, right? They're like, Oh yeah, true persistence, but it's
48:12
really not a big deal and all that. But it can be a really big
48:14
deal.
48:14
Well, somebody understands it just as it's hard to get out.
48:17
Plus, I mean, again, from somebody who's been on the
48:19
vendor side, sometimes you're going to go, I got six new
48:21
games, and I'm not going to know the 91st day of math on all
48:25
these right? So like not to say I should get a pass, right? I
48:27
just think that's what's your point about the conversation?
48:30
You go, Well, wait a minute. Now, people may be getting ahead
48:32
about a long term persistence. There could be a cliff here.
48:35
Let's walk through that. Understand it more. And again,
48:37
it's up to you to make the choice you want. Are you okay
48:39
with this ride that you're offering or not, right? And,
48:41
yeah, I mean, and thing is, like, basically a game that's
48:44
coming out real soon, that is one of the more popular games
48:47
that ever been created, that has a true persistence feature to
48:50
it, and it's gonna be really interesting to see what happens.
48:53
That's it. Keep an eye out, yeah. And that's all we could
48:55
do, right? So for me, like, the four or five years of studying
48:58
this was just a way of me giving back to slot operators, and kind
49:02
of understanding what game designers and slot manufacturers
49:06
are doing. And maybe it's not a problem in the long run. I
49:09
believe it is. And I know that if I ran a casino again, I would
49:13
just want to really have that conversation and understand, you
49:16
know what? You know, what? Where am I vulnerable, and where am I
49:19
not? Yeah,
49:19
makes sense. I think, yeah, that's, it's incredible. You now
49:23
make me want to do a series on this, to get more of, like, the
49:25
operator viewpoint.
49:26
I do. I'll come back. Yeah, let's get a manual debate, like
49:29
they want to do
49:29
today. No, I just think this is such an interesting topic. And
49:32
it's, there are very few things that are black and white, and I
49:34
don't think this is one of those. But I think it's like,
49:36
there's enough nuance where you can go, well, everybody has an
49:39
interest here, and yet, not right. So, so
49:41
if you really want to, like, laugh and follow a social
49:44
influencer that is a slot advantage player, I don't know
49:47
him, but go to YouTube. Go to J fructose. Okay, fructose like,
49:53
Yep, he is as funny as they come. He's a slot advantage
49:57
player that lives locally in Las Vegas. He exposes all. The plays
50:01
for free. It is extremely comical. Like, go in and watch
50:05
that, and you'll get a chance to kind of see what they're doing
50:08
the world and what it looks like. And then as a slot
50:10
operator, you go back and be like, do I really want that in
50:12
my Casino? Yeah,
50:14
fair enough got to learn. So yeah, I appreciate you taking
50:16
the time to educate myself. And obviously everyone listening
50:19
here and jumping on the call out so quickly. So appreciate that.
50:22
Man, anytime. Legend and a scholar, my friend, till next
50:24
time, we'll do it again. All right. Appreciate you. Man,
50:27
cheers.
50:35
You.