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Budget 2027: The Winners, The Risks and What's Next · AIB Market Talk

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_03: You're listening to AIB Market Talk, bringing you financial market insights from AIB's experts.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: Hello and welcome to today's podcast, which we are recording on Wednesday, the 7th of October, 2027.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_02: Now, Budget 2027 has officially dropped with an expanded 8.65 billion package.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: And while the 1.3 billion income tax package largely came in as expected, much of it leaked, the government still managed to save a few tricks up their sleeve.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: So to talk us through this and more, I'm joined not only by David McNamara, our chief economist, but also by Adrian Moynihan, Head of Consumer, who would expand on the personal investment accounts, what they are, what they will mean to us, and indeed when we can have them.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_02: Jens, thank you both for joining me today.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Great to be here, dude.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: David, the budget to economists must be the fiscal equivalent of Christmas or the Super Bowl.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_02: But all joking aside, can you put yesterday's budget in context first?
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: It sure is.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we we do get very excited about these things.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure it's the best way actually to do fiscal policy when you have this annual jammerie, but that's the that's the structure we have, and um we all get on board with the roller coaster every year.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: To put it in context, it's a very large giveaway.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what we our headline of our research note yesterday evening was.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh it was trailed at 8.5 billion.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: In the event, I think it's going to be probably beyond that, given some of the temporary measures around energy supports, it'd probably be north of nine billion.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: And as we know from recent past, temporary supports are very hard to withdraw.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we can assume those things will roll over uh indefinitely.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: So it is very large compared to recent budgets.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: Are we back in the the good old days of the Celtic Tiger era?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: No, we're not.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but we're a long way from where we were uh try scrounting around trying to find uh tens of billions in savings just you know 10 or 15 years ago.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so in a in a European context, this is probably one of the most expansionary budgets and fiscal policies you will see from any European country.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: And the reason for that is we have the funds to do it.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: And our largest budget to date, isn't it?
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: We had some significant ones around Cullwood's uh pandemic.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: So if you exclude the pandemic when we have to take emergency measures, it is one of the uh it is one of the largest giveaways.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: So David, let's break that down some more, looking at the various different components.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: And let's start with income tax and what we heard yesterday.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so the income tax package was I I I expect welcome uh from workers.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh recall last year there was no package whatsoever.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the focus last year was on uh business supports, largely the VAT cut for hospitality.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: So this year a return to income tax cuts.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh significant uh increase in the bans for the higher rate band, uh over 2,000 euros, also changes to USC and the tax credits.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so in the back of the budget documents, you will often see um various examples of how it will affect people.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: So often it would be, you know, Mary and John, they have two kids, they're they both earn 50k each year.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so for that middle income earner around 50k a year, the saving is around 700 euros.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: So significant uh boost to disposable income.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: But uh at the same time, inflation is running at 4%.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: Oil prices are very high, the cost of filling up a tank petrol and diesel is very high.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: So really it's only catching up on the inflation that we've experienced in the last year.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget there were no income tax cuts last year either.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: So over this broad sweep of two years, I'd say people are probably still worse off slightly in terms of their um their disposable income.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_02: So, David, then taking all that into account, the USC, the personal tax credits, the income tax bracket being pushed out, however, with the inflationary um pressures that are there, who are the real winners in this budget?
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_02: Is it the low, middle, higher?
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_02: Who actually is the real winner here?
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're on the precipice, uh you're on average incomes and you've just tipped over into the higher rate bracket 40%, uh, and you're earning in somewhere in the mid-40s, this is is it good for you?
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh if you have a couple of kids in in early years childcare, and and I'll have to declare my an interest here, I do, you'll be getting uh childcare supports uh from next September.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's disappointed to see it will be until next September.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: And if you are in receipt of some welfare payments, you will be seeing an increase uh of 10 euro by and large across the board.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and also we've seen what's surprising for me was a complete freeze in certain elements of the carbon tax on kerosene oil for home heating, on natural gas, for the lifetime of this government, which I thought was surprising.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: I thought they might delay it for a year, but it's now completely frozen.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Carbon tax has been a real emotive political issue in the last um few years.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, some of the sums I'm seeing is that would take anywhere between 50 and 80 quid off a fill of an oil tank.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: So these are all quite small measures in and of themselves, but they add up to quite a big, as I said, giveaway.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um so you may not uh see every uh sector of society happy with what they've received yesterday, but it's the I it's a similar strategy to what the government has deployed in recent years.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: They try to spread it as much as they can, and often they may not please everyone in the process.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_02: Well, you mentioned there the reduction in the carbon tax on um home heating oil and gas.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: And as you said, for the lifetime of this government, notwithstanding there is an election looming.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um they also deferred the auto fuel carbon tax like to May, I think it is.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: Now, one might argue you're kicking an inflation can down the road there.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: What are your thoughts on that?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, actually, one of the largest tax uh cuts was the extension of uh I think it was mineral oil uh taxation, a very kind of arcane uh tax line that I wasn't aware of.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: But they've extended that into uh next year and it will phase out from February until the summer.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's actually costing uh nearly 500 million euros.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: That wasn't included in the tax package, so that's why I say actually the actual in reality the tax package is well north of two billion compared to the 1.5 that was trailed.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the government is making a bet that oil prices will fall by the time these uh temporary measures uh start to expire.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: And that's a very big bet.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a a bigger risk.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: So look at there's let's not try and predict the the future, even though that's the job we're in.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: It's very difficult right now to see how the current impasse in the Middle East ends, although some of the doomsday predictions of oil prices getting to$200 a barrel were wide at the mark.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're around$100 a barrel, much higher than it was.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but this this energy shock is not on par with what we experienced four years ago.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um and for that reason the government hasn't looked at introducing, reintroducing things like energy credits and electricity, and so so they're making a bet that once the temporary measures reduce, oil prices will be back to normal.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: David, taking all that into account, and you mentioned the larger spend than even has been uh effectively printed, the government had already breached its own 5% spending growth through once again opting for this in the expansionary uh budget.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: As an economist, how concerned are you that this might reheat domestic inflation?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh look, it's very hard to say.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, much of the inflation that we're experiencing right now is imported from abroad.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: There's not much a government uh can do about it.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: And they have the the balance sheet, as it were, to offset some of the pain, take the edge off to some of the impact.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: But there's no government in the world that will be able to chase all crisis and offset the whole impact.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: So they've they've gone a little bit of the way, and as I said, they're betting uh that things will settle down.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: On the spending side, I think what's very interesting is we've blown through our budget for this year, two billion higher on voted expenditure.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: But the minister has talked tough, Jack Chambers, in the budget and says he wants to see efficiencies, and he's kept the expenditure ceiling for this year in place.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: So that implies that actually the rate of growth in spending will slow quite sharply this year.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Now, let's see if that happens.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: I am a little bit skeptical that it will because this year we've already seen the health budget blow through.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh its ceiling, it's probably a billion ahead for the year.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: The education budget is a few hundred million ahead for the year.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: And we're facing all the same pressures, inflationary pressures, demographic pressures next year as we are this year.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: So I'd be very surprised if we stick to the budget that's that's been agreed for next year on the spending side, and given recent experience.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, David.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_02: I'll come back to you again now at the end.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_02: But in the meantime, Adrian, you've been sitting very patiently here, but uh time to bring you in.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: As Minister Simon Harris confirmed the launch of the new personal investment account starting summer 2027, I think.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: Now this is a fundamental shift in how the state treats retail investments.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: Tell me, what is the background or reason the government are launching the personal investment account, PIAs, let's call them for short?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it probably was one of the main announcements in budget yesterday was the launch of an investment account initiative.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: And background and context of this probably at an Irish level and also at an EU level.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: So if you look at Ireland as a whole, we are most definitely a nation of savers and not uh the nation uh of investors.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: And when you look at the level of investment penetration across the broad population, we significantly lag international peers and we're much more weighted to things like cash and property than we are into stocks and equities as well.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: So a big focus um at an Irish level is to try and unlock that, try and get more money uh from savings into investments and get a better balance.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: So it isn't one or the other, it's just about how do you get the right mix uh across all the different uh customer segments.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: You'll see in the budget overall, there was quite a focus on trying to simplify and encourage it.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: We saw changes to capital gains tax, for example, as well.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the context at an Irish level.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: At an EU level, uh the savings in investment union is one of the flagship European Commission initiatives.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: And what that is trying to do is it's trying to uh unlock some of the funds that are currently in savings and deposit accounts across the EU and to put that into more productive purposes.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Um EU have identified a mismatch in funding required for uh investments across digital energy defence right across the EU, and just about 10 trillion uh euro in deposit and savings accounts right across the EU with an expected investment envelope to meet some of those needs on digital energy and defence for around 750, 800 million euros.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: So a big focus at an EU level is how do we do that and how do we unlock some of that.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: These investment account initiatives are quite common across other uh uh countries as in a way of doing that.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so it from an Irish perspective, it also helps do that as well.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: So it's really meeting two needs.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's trying to get more Irish people investing, but also then to try and use some of that funding at an Irish and EU level to fund future investments within the EU.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: Catch up with our uh European counterparts.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: And in an Irish context, uh there was a number of 170 billion, I think it was mentioned in deposit accounts.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we hear it being quoted externally anyway, in in the media.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: How accurate is that?
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we don't believe it is.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: So you're you're quite right.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: We see uh quite frequently this figure of 170 billion being quoted.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and just for clarity for everyone, that 170 billion includes everything.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: So it includes the money we have in our current accounts today, so money we use to buy a cup of coffee, buy groceries, pay bills, uh, pay our mortgages, uh, and so on.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh it also includes funds from certain customers that won't be eligible for the investment account, so customers at money if uh were under 18 years of age, uh, who may be more elderly and where a risk-based investment product wouldn't be suitable.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: It also includes some uh business funds as well.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: So when we look at it and we do the analysis on it and we compare it to other countries who have these schemes in place for longer, so the UK, uh Sweden are good examples of that, we believe the addressable market is more like 20 billion to 30 billion, that type of range.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: And then it's what proportion of those customers would invest that that money as well.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: So we think that the 170 billion sets an unrealistic expectation.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: We believe the market is more of that range.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: And if you look out of the next four or five years, you know, if we got if we got somewhere between six, seven, eight billion of funds into this uh investment account, that would be real success.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with that.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's I think it'll be a slow burn.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget the legacy of the financial crisis has left its mark on on the country, and we've become a nation of sabres, and we've been very cautious.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Irish households have just consistently deleveraged since the financial crisis because many people uh were impacted by that, and that le that leaves a long tail.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: So I think now, while it's a good idea uh trying to nudge people into these uh into different products or diversifying your assets, I think it will be a very slow burn.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: I do have one slight concern around the timing.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's a good idea.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully, we're not just uh we're we're introducing these varieties financial markets reach a frothy peak, but let's see.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not predicting anything here over the next few months.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_02: We do have an interesting couple of months ahead of us to see exactly uh what disposable income that there is in that uh 170 billion, in reality, 20 uh billion more like.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_02: What exactly do we know about that personal investment account then um in terms of how one of a look like angels?
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so uh some of this has been um drip-fed over the course of the last number of months, but really from budget yesterday and from the roadmap that was published by the government uh earlier this year, uh the details are are are broadly known at this stage.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: So big pieces are is once you're over 18 uh years of age and you have a PPS number, you're eligible to open an account and it is one account per person.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: It is an investment account, and I think that's really important because you'll see in some of the coverage it's called a savings and investment account.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a savings account, it's a risk-based investment account, and that's important for people because it does carry a level of risk and it's not the same as your traditional savings uh or deposit account.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Uh there will be no minimum investment amount, so it's quite inclusive that way.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: So you can save 50 euros a month, 5 euros a month if you want.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, there really is no minimum amount.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: And also, importantly, you're going to be able to access the funds within your accounts at any time that you wish.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: There will be a maximum annual amount, so you can invest up to 12,000 euros per annum into the account, and there's a maximum amount that will be tax-free of 50,000.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: So quite generous uh overall.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: Anything above that€50,000 amount will be taxed at 1% per annum.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: And that's 1% per annum, whether markets go up or down as well.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's a consistent uh charging uh structure on it.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: And importantly, I think for most people, because it this is one of the blockers that stop people investing, is that they fear they have to do tax returns, which they have to do currently today.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Under the new investment account initiative, uh there will be no requirement for the customer to provide the tax return.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: The provider has to do that on their behalf, which is a big one.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: Just one, I think one interesting point, I thought I don't think I saw it in the announcement, but is a feature I think in other European countries is there is a kind of national mandate where funds are channeled into certain infrastructure projects or housing or something like that.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: Is that going to be a feature, I wonder, of this uh this kind of look-out?
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it certainly was a uh a topic that was discussed uh in the early stages of the design and thinking around the uh investment account initiative.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: What we've seen in other countries is that hasn't been a feature on day one, but as more and more customers become invested in it, the range of funds and investment choices have broadened as well.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: So it has become more country specific or actually EU specific as well.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: So but while it's not here day one for the Irish investment account, it's not to say that that won't become a feature and further down the line.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: Adrian, look, lastly, I know we and AIB are obviously committed to playing our part in making all of this happen and make it a success.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: You might remind our listeners just one last time when it will be available to our customers.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was confirmed yesterday in budget that it's going to be available to consumers in the 1st of July 2027, so middle of next year.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and I can confirm that AIB will be offering the investment account uh for customers.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we have seen how initiatives like this in other countries has really transformed investment participation rates.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we can if we can adopt that approach and get that success in an Irish context, it really will be win-win uh for everyone.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're absolutely committed to playing our part uh in making that happen.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: We've had a team mobilised now for the last number of months, already beginning to work on that, build out the design of it, even though we didn't know all the features.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: But now that we know all the features, it will be all systems code to make sure we've a best in class offering live in the market from the first of July next year.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks, Adrian.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_02: David, just coming back to the budget and just to wrap things up, maybe reflecting on the budget.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: As a country, we are well off.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_02: We might not necessarily feel it, I can assure you of that.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_02: But financially, Ireland is very, very well off.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_02: And I mean, to put it in context, and I learned an awful lot about this myself looking into these over the last couple of days, per head of capital, we are actually wealthier than Switzerland and Luxembourg.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_02: We're the wealthiest in Europe, are we not with a surplus of near nine and a half billion forecasted?
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_02: So have the government done enough in your view, or equally have they spent too much putting our public finances at risk, given how much that wealth is generated from corporate tax, and there's no avoiding that.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_02: You know, is it a house of cards?
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it could be.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: And if you think about the reliance on corporation tax, the Department of Finance itself publishes a number every year in its forecast for how much they think is excess or windfall taxation that might be at risk.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: And when you exclude that from the budget balance, we'll be running a very large budget deficit.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: And actually, that deficit will continue to grow in the next few years out to nearly 20 billion euros.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: So forget about our nine or 10 billion surplus.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: If something happened geopolitically, or even a let's let's give the example of a product line.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, uh 20 years ago, Nokia was made obsolete by the iPhone.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: And that iPhone maker is now one of the largest taxpayers in Ireland.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: A weight loss drug maker uh is producing a huge amount of uh products uh down in Cork, and that is contributing to our corporation tax rates.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: What's to say some other drug might not come along uh in the future?
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: So we're not just reliant on companies, we're reliant on specific products to underpin our tax base.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the kind that's the thing that uh worries me.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: And what I would have liked to have seen is a plan to close that underlying deficit over the next few years, and actually it's growing further.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: We should do two things with the windfall taxes.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: We should either save them or we should spend it on infrastructure.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: We should not spend it on day-to-day spending, which is what we've been doing increasingly.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: To be fair to the government, they have established these sovereign wealth funds.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: They'll be uh up to around 30, 31 billion by the end of next year.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's very welcome.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: And there's other resources uh of the state as well.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: So we're in a very good position, as you said.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: We're very wealthy in terms of our balance sheet position.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um, not everyone in the country feels that and are feeling strains of higher inflation.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: There's I know I get there's huge demands to spend more and more every year, and I would not uh you would not uh pay me all the money in the world to be sitting in that position having to decide.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's a very difficult job.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: But my role and others as economists is to point out the risks.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: And while you know these corporation taxes might not go away anytime soon, we should treat it as such and we should be have a plan for the rainy day that's coming uh down the tracks.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_02: And so there's forecasts in there, if I'm not mistaken, for that corporate tax to increase exponentially before the decade is out to Yeah, well it's gonna increase.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so actually they they trimmed it back this year, but uh the not to get into the weeds too much, the increase in the rate from tall one half to 15 for very large corporates is starting to come through now, and they expect a lot of that will come through next year.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: So our corporation tax take will go from 34 billion this year to 39 billion next year, and it will continue to increase, although they expected a flat line, but it's nearly as big as uh our income tax take.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: So uh 2.8 million people at work in Ireland versus a handful of companies, and we're getting the same amount of money from from both sources.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_02: Well, for now it has been a giveaway budget, I think is what we'll take away from it, but with uh a couple of caveats to go with.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh Adrian, David, thank you both for joining me in the podcast today, which as always has been very insightful with plenty for our listeners to unpack and take away.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_02: As always, to stay up to date with all our market developments, simply subscribe to AIB's Market Talk wherever you get your podcast.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you in the next episode.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_03: Thanks for listening to the latest edition of AIB Market Talk.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_03: Allied Irish Bank's PLC is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_03: AIB NI is a trademark used under license by AIB Group UK PLC, authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_03: Allied Irish Bank UV and Allied Irish Bank UB Savings Direct are trademarks used under licence by AIB Group UK PLC, authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.