Latest / The Innovation Show / The AI Revolution & Business Model Transformation | Osterwalder, Yu & Choudary
Transcript
- 0:00Before we start into a very special episode of the Innovation Show X, I
- 0:03want to thank our sponsor Kyndryl, who runs and reimagines the technology
- 0:07systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses.
- 0:10With a unique blend of AI powered consulting, built on unmatched managed
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- 0:19smarter decisions, faster innovation, and a lasting competitive edge.
- 0:23You can find Kyndryl.
- 0:24Kyndryl.com.
- 0:25I also want to thank the team at Thinkers 50 for allowing me the time
- 0:30to record at this year's event, the Gala dinner in London at the Guild
- 0:36Hall with this magnificent lineup.
- 0:38I won't give you any more over to that episode now.
- 0:41AI is shaping business, but most companies are chasing tools
- 0:45rather than restructuring the businesses and the business models
- 0:49underlying those businesses.
- 0:51The picture is confusing 95% according to MIT of Gen AI projects fail or
- 0:59under deliver on their projected value.
- 1:02If they add any value at all.
- 1:04Tech giants and consulting arms are letting go of suede of people only
- 1:09to rehire them weeks or months later.
- 1:12The picture is confusing, the puzzle is incomplete.
- 1:16So we have to look at what is underlying these businesses.
- 1:20It reminds me of Amaras Law.
- 1:22Amaras Law is a technological law where we
- 1:27the value of a technology in the short run, but undervalue that extent
- 1:32of that change in the long run.
- 1:34But Amara's law applies not only to the technology, but the businessing
- 1:38impact of that technology.
- 1:41It is a puzzle, it's a paradox.
- 1:43And here at Thinkers 50 in London 2025, in an magnificent episode in of
- 1:51Innovation X, I'm joined by three of the world's best thinkers on this to unpack
- 1:56different lenses to look at this puzzle.
- 1:59We're joined over here by Alex Osterwalder.
- 2:02Thanks for having me.
- 2:03Great to have you in person on the show.
- 2:05Howard, Yu welcome back, sir.
- 2:07What a great treat.
- 2:09Great to have you and Sangeet Paul Choudary as well.
- 2:12Two guests previously on the innovation show, X joined by Alex.
- 2:15Now we promised you extra value.
- 2:18We've given you the best possible value you can have.
- 2:21So let's get stuck in Sangeet.
- 2:23I thought I'd come to you first.
- 2:24Sure.
- 2:25One of the things you talk about in reshuffle is this
- 2:29idea of containerization.
- 2:31I love it as an analogy of what we're seeing with the reshuffle
- 2:35that AI does to business landscape.
- 2:37Let's share with the audience a little bit about that.
- 2:40Yeah, I think the idea of containerization is interesting.
- 2:43I start the book reshuffle with the four words, why unintelligent AI matters.
- 2:48And the reason I say that is because today our dominant metaphor for
- 2:53looking at AI is intelligence.
- 2:55We're constantly debating do we have a fifth grader or a PhD in our pocket?
- 2:59And , which kinds of exams and benchmarks can it work towards?
- 3:03And the other metaphor we have is of automation, making
- 3:06things faster, cheaper, better.
- 3:09But all of these assume that the impact of AI will play out within fixed
- 3:14structures, whether it's organizational structures, industry boundaries,
- 3:18business models, nothing's gonna change.
- 3:19It's just gonna be automation.
- 3:21The reason I chose containerization to make my point is that the shipping
- 3:24container is the polar extreme of ai.
- 3:28It is not an intelligent technology.
- 3:30It's a dumb simple box.
- 3:32And if you had thought of the shipping container as a technology and its effects,
- 3:37your first order thinking would have led you to believe that the effects of the
- 3:41shipping container would be automation.
- 3:43And it did automate the ports because before the shipping container
- 3:46cargo used to be break bulk.
- 3:48And so you needed manual labor to move cargo on and off ships.
- 3:52With the shipping container, you standardized that interface and
- 3:56hence you could now have cranes.
- 3:57But if you had just stopped at the impact the shipping container and read it as
- 4:01automation, you would've missed out on everything that unfolded beyond that.
- 4:05Because what really dramatically, changed things with the shipping
- 4:11container was when trucks, trains, and ships agreed on a common
- 4:15standard for the shipping container.
- 4:17The reason that was important was now you could move from source to destination
- 4:21independent of whether you were landlocked or at a port with the same Reliability.
- 4:27And reliability has incredible value in a world where business
- 4:34boundaries are determined by what we call transaction costs, and
- 4:38because shipping became reliable.
- 4:40The whole logic of manufacturing change because before that, you wanted to keep
- 4:44things in-house as a manufacturer, or you wanted to keep your suppliers close
- 4:47by because shipping was unreliable.
- 4:50As a retailer, you wanted to rely on distributors because they would keep
- 4:54the stocks to manage unreliability.
- 4:56The moment shipping became reliable, manufacturing got unbundled.
- 4:59We started seeing the rise of global supply chains.
- 5:02We started, most importantly seeing component level competition because now
- 5:07you did not need to build everything in-house so companies could specialize,
- 5:11plug into a global supply chain and compete at the level of components.
- 5:15And once components improved, the larger product innovation
- 5:19happened with improving components.
- 5:20And that's what gave us the computer industry and many other things.
- 5:23So my key point with all of this is the impact of AI will play out
- 5:27not through making things faster, better, cheaper, automating, agentic.
- 5:31All of that is a distraction.
- 5:32The real point is think of the second and third order effects and
- 5:35see the reshuffling of the system.
- 5:37One of the things I took from your analogy was the people would've invested
- 5:43in cranes or they would've , invested in the technology to move the shipping
- 5:46containers, much like we see with ai.
- 5:49That's right.
- 5:49And also, it's a nice segue for Alex, because I thought of the moving of these
- 5:53containers, much like your business model canvas and actually how that helps
- 5:58for many of us, me included with the shift from, say, media, where I worked
- 6:03the shift from analog to digital meant.
- 6:06That it wasn't just a layering of digital on top, although that's how it started.
- 6:09Most companies, for example, a newspaper just had a brochure Yeah.
- 6:13That sat on a website and it didn't move, it didn't have any interaction.
- 6:17But to your point about un the underlining model and unbundling it,
- 6:22it meant a total restructure of the entire organization about the skill sets
- 6:27and what'll come to you, Howard, about this, the capabilities needed for that
- 6:31organization, but most importantly, through the business model underlying it,
- 6:34and that doesn't always spell new value.
- 6:38It can actually unbundle value in a negative sense as well.
- 6:41I'd love you to give your view.
- 6:42You did a webinar recently about this, about the effect of AI on business models.
- 6:46Yeah.
- 6:46And I thought bringing you gents together was a superpower to give
- 6:51people a true lens of what's going on.
- 6:52Yeah.
- 6:53And I love, I love the analogy.
- 6:55Looking at how the environment is changing and everything that needs to happen.
- 6:59I'll kind of zoom into one company, one business model,
- 7:02but I'll use an analogy as well.
- 7:04And Steve Blank actually came up with this, the inventor of the mm-hmm.
- 7:07Customer development lean startup methodology.
- 7:10And we were talking about this this summer.
- 7:11He was saying, Alex, do you know in the 19 hundreds there were 4,000 wagon
- 7:17manufacturers and yeah, well, do you know how many actually became car companies?
- 7:24And the answer is like, a lot of people say, oh zero.
- 7:26Well, there was one Studebaker is a brand that made it from, you know, wagon
- 7:32manufacturer to become a car manufacturer.
- 7:35Ah, and then you can stretch it a little bit and say, Billy Durant,
- 7:37he sold all of his wagon, you know, manufacturing assets and then started
- 7:41a car company and then later on GM.
- 7:43But the point is, if you look at what happened there is
- 7:46there's a technology component.
- 7:48But the big one, the big lesson to take away is there was a lack of vision and
- 7:53leadership to actually use this in new ways and make things happen, right?
- 7:58So one is the environment has to change.
- 7:59You need leaders there who see, okay, well you know, AI is now here, what
- 8:03could I do to support that ecosystem?
- 8:05But the big one is leadership within companies.
- 8:08Yeah.
- 8:08So entrepreneurs are pretty good at that.
- 8:11And then, you know, one out of out of a hundred will maybe succeed big,
- 8:15but when we look at large established companies, many of them are gonna
- 8:19disappear because they do not have that visionary entrepreneurial leadership.
- 8:23You always have to run the company running at the same time you need to transform.
- 8:27So all that to say AI, at the end of the day is just a technology.
- 8:31It's a very powerful one, enables a lot of things, but without the visionary
- 8:37leadership and then the drive to implement that and the right systems in place to
- 8:41allow people in a company with drive
- 8:44and we want to try to let them thrive is not gonna happen.
- 8:47Right.
- 8:48So we're gonna see a lot of change, the macro aspect of how the economy's
- 8:53gonna work, but also a lot of companies are gonna disappear.
- 8:56And I'm not one to often say that, but it's just inevitable.
- 9:00Yeah.
- 9:00Because the leadership we see in, in many companies today, the establishment
- 9:04is not an entrepreneurial leadership.
- 9:06It's a very managerial leadership.
- 9:07And that managerial leadership is not equipped for massive change to me.
- 9:13the capabilities of those leaders often aren't trained.
- 9:16So we'll talk later on , you.
- 9:18Expand on the work of James March, Tushman and O'Reilly, the idea of exploit explore
- 9:23and how many leaders are exploiters of the business model they've uncovered.
- 9:27And they can't, they don't have the capability to explore, nor do they take
- 9:31the time to, build up those capabilities.
- 9:34And Howard, I was very fortunate.
- 9:36I'm always struck by the serendipity of doing the innovation show.
- 9:38I'm currently reading a book by Chuck House.
- 9:41Charles House.
- 9:42Yeah.
- 9:42He's the gentleman who led to computer screens, et cetera,
- 9:45earlier prototype in HP.
- 9:47You've studied in depth hp.
- 9:49And one of the things he did was he talks about how.
- 9:55When there was a shift to transistors from vacuum tubes many of the people he studied
- 10:00with, engineers were gone overnight.
- 10:02And it wasn't a case of doing a night course to try and build out capability.
- 10:06It was simply gone.
- 10:08Because it meant more than a new skill.
- 10:10It was a shift in mindset of how you actually dealt with that new skill.
- 10:14And it made me think exactly of your work, because you're looking
- 10:18always at the capabilities needed for seismic shifts like AI will bring.
- 10:22Mm-hmm.
- 10:23And what Alex, as well as Sangeet just described there, I never made that
- 10:28connection before, but essentially it calls for almost like an architectural
- 10:33innovation, but at the industry level.
- 10:36Yeah.
- 10:36So Rebecca Henderson and Kim Clark, we study architectural
- 10:39innovation inside firm.
- 10:41But what you both just described is the architectural innovation happening at
- 10:46the ecosystem or at the industry level.
- 10:48So less, let's assume a company already have the vision.
- 10:52Let's imagine we are wealthy enough to bring a group of CEO to Silicon Valley,
- 10:57to Sheen and look across the world.
- 11:00They have the time and they immerse themselves and come back with a vision.
- 11:04Let's assume vision is there.
- 11:06I suspect companies can get it right.
- 11:09They need one more thing.
- 11:10They need to know exactly how things work today in order to map out how
- 11:17things should work in the future.
- 11:19So who knows what, how things getting worked done, because so
- 11:22many company we work with, they don't even know how it works.
- 11:25Take a pharmaceutical company, anybody, right?
- 11:28Even generic drugs or you know, biopharma, if you ask for five level
- 11:32down, no one know how things work.
- 11:35Mm-hmm.
- 11:35And without knowing who knows what exactly how things work at a master plan level
- 11:40first is you cannot reimagine a future.
- 11:42Because if you change one thing, you worry the whole things would have a
- 11:45meltdown, catastrophic consequence, or.
- 11:50You cannot even leverage AI to give you some new way of working to eliminate
- 11:55what should not exist from day one.
- 11:57So I could really see there are two sides of the companies.
- 12:02One is having a vision and also the prerequisite knowledge about
- 12:07how we are working right now so that they could reimagine the
- 12:11future for this architectural innovation at the industry level.
- 12:15Hard.
- 12:16This is why I think only a handful can make through that way, but hey look,
- 12:21it's always the winners takes, all right?
- 12:23When you face a seismic shift.
- 12:25One of the things that came up, I think is 50 was say for example an
- 12:29organization doesn't know where to bet.
- 12:32You talk about, for example, an organization should only have three
- 12:35priorities any more than that.
- 12:36They don't have any priorities.
- 12:38Yeah.
- 12:38But where to play as well is very difficult.
- 12:42And things like the Metaverse didn't help us, where organizations
- 12:45were putting bets in there, maybe investing in it, trying to build
- 12:48capabilities there, and it didn't turn.
- 12:50Mm-hmm.
- 12:50It didn't play out.
- 12:51Yeah.
- 12:51. So that's been known as fomo.
- 12:53Fear of missing out.
- 12:54Mm-hmm.
- 12:55Right.
- 12:55But one of the things that it brought to mind was how do you know where to
- 12:59build the capabilities for the future?
- 13:00Yeah.
- 13:00If you don't know where the future's gonna be.
- 13:02Yeah.
- 13:03So I would just give a very short answer then, you know, Alex
- 13:06and Sangeet, please build on.
- 13:08But I think there is almost like conservative company having
- 13:11this like simplistic view.
- 13:13Transformation is after deep analysis, one big gamble and it plays out.
- 13:19Yeah.
- 13:20That wrong.
- 13:20Doesn't work in that wrong, dammit.
- 13:23Because.
- 13:25Steve Jobs almost shut down iPhone three times before he launched it.
- 13:28The famous Alexa project by Amazon was born out from the
- 13:33collapse of the Fire phone.
- 13:36So capability is different than product offering, but of
- 13:41course, once you learn, you fail.
- 13:42Now this is hard.
- 13:43You need to keep the engineers not firing them.
- 13:47Do real postmortem, capture the knowledge, show it, use it, and recycle it.
- 13:53Most company just don't have that emotional resilience to have those type
- 13:59of conversation, let alone show it across.
- 14:02So yeah, I think capability is very different than a product offering itself.
- 14:07You are looking at Meta, right?
- 14:08Yeah.
- 14:08Metaverse is like crazy.
- 14:10But there are capabilities they built around hardware, which
- 14:13you see expressed in RayBan.
- 14:16We don't know how things would unfold, but if you don't keep on stacking
- 14:20up, where would you have the future?
- 14:22If we keep on polishing our historic competence, we all end up like
- 14:26Kodak, Polaroid, and Blockbuster.
- 14:28so fomo, fear of missing Out I was thinking about this recently.
- 14:31I was like on, there's also another FOMO type phenomenon.
- 14:36I call it Photo, FOTO, fear of throwing out.
- 14:39And by that I mean you've built a tech stack.
- 14:43The tech stack has been a massive investment by an organization then.
- 14:49The CEO or the C-suite to Alex's point, don't really understand what that does.
- 14:53They're relying on somebody in the organization who may not actually
- 14:56know what the next move is.
- 14:57And certainly not to your point, to reshuffle that entire stack,
- 15:01which totally takes an unbundling of the architecture you have.
- 15:04And there's a law called Conway's Law, which is that the architecture, the
- 15:09organizational structure will actually be matched in architecture of technology.
- 15:13Yeah.
- 15:13There's a lot in there, but this is a huge problem when you
- 15:16come to a new technology like
- 15:18ai.
- 15:18Yeah, absolutely.
- 15:19Let me just say one thing.
- 15:21This is such an interesting conversation because Howard's view is inside out.
- 15:26What's the capability stack?
- 15:28My view is outside and what's the playing field?
- 15:30And , I feel, and I don't wanna simplify, oversimplify, but I feel
- 15:33Alex bridges the two things really well, and, and he does, he really does.
- 15:37Right?
- 15:38So I, I'll, I'll just compliment what Howard just said to, to answer
- 15:41that question, one way is to really think of how is your capability
- 15:46stack matching what's required?
- 15:49But the other question is where to play what is required?
- 15:52There are two factors that determine what is required and that's deter those
- 15:57two factors basically answer a simple question, where is value moving and how
- 16:01can we play where that value is moving?
- 16:03So there are two, I mean there are many different factors that come
- 16:05together, but two that really come to mind as being very important on
- 16:09determining where value is moving and how the playing field is changing.
- 16:12The first is this idea of complementarity.
- 16:15So we say industry boundaries are dissolving and are becoming porous,
- 16:19but really what all of that means is that previously siloed, unconnected
- 16:24industries are now complementary.
- 16:27One of the primary drivers for complementarity was data.
- 16:30So you could capture data from a car and move it into the insurance
- 16:33industry and connect the two together.
- 16:35Now we have ai.
- 16:36You can now take non standardizable information, messy knowledge.
- 16:42Which used to be very industry specific and somehow feed it into models and
- 16:47make the two industries complementary and allow capabilities to be packaged
- 16:51in one and moved into the other.
- 16:53And I think that's super powerful in terms of changing your playing field.
- 16:56The second factor that determines how value moves is commoditization because
- 17:01technology constantly commoditized capabilities that held value in the past.
- 17:05So take AI as an example.
- 17:08A lot of companies in the knowledge economy were built on a simple assumption
- 17:11that knowledge is scarce and you need to go to Harvard, you need to be trained.
- 17:17And even once we hire you, we had to keep investing in training you.
- 17:19Now, if some forms of knowledge will become commoditized and become
- 17:23available with a well-structured prompt, value is not going to sit there.
- 17:27It's gonna move somewhere else.
- 17:28And so really the way I see this whole thing is.
- 17:33You need to look at matching your architecture to the technology because
- 17:39the architecture of your playing field is getting matched to the technology anyway.
- 17:43And so in order to play successfully over there, you have to follow what's
- 17:46the architecture of the new technology.
- 17:48And the way to do that is to keep an eye on what are the new complementarities,
- 17:53what's getting commoditized, where is value moving, and how can I
- 17:56then move my capability stack?
- 17:57Yeah.
- 17:57In response to that.
- 17:58One of the big fears though on that is actually what Alex talks about is
- 18:01that if you, if you have a skillset and you've built a business based on
- 18:07the stack as it was for that time in history, that that was needed for,
- 18:12so you were, you had a competitive advantage then, then you were exploiting.
- 18:16Yeah.
- 18:16But the, the fear of exploring.
- 18:19And then harmed in some way by history where like the metaverse,
- 18:23those type of things that I tried something and I, and they kept
- 18:26receipts on me in the organization, so they're not letting me away with it.
- 18:29And I have that blemish on my record.
- 18:32Yeah.
- 18:32There's a huge fear about that.
- 18:33Alex and you, I know you work with some magnificent companies
- 18:37at leadership level Yeah.
- 18:38To redirect the ship.
- 18:40Yeah.
- 18:40In entirely new directions.
- 18:42I'm actually thinking, 'cause you're talking about the different laws and
- 18:44since you know everything that goes on in innovation, you read every single
- 18:47book that ever existed on innovation.
- 18:49Actually, not yet.
- 18:50I'll, I'll ask you if that law exists, otherwise we're gonna
- 18:52have to invent it with this group.
- 18:54It's actually the law of the existing business model spewing out corporate
- 19:01antibodies that kills anything that looks differently because once you've
- 19:05found a business model that works, actually what happens is the company
- 19:09is really good at doing just that.
- 19:11And there are very few companies.
- 19:13That are able to either reinvent themselves or create a portfolio
- 19:17of business models, extremely rare.
- 19:19Mm-hmm.
- 19:19And the leaders I work with, you know, they don't understand the force
- 19:26of their existing business model.
- 19:28It will kill anything that looks differently from the radically different
- 19:32business model to maybe just the new value proposition that has slightly
- 19:35different margins because the sales team is not gonna wanna sell that because
- 19:38they're not gonna get their bonus.
- 19:39So the existing business model, there's a law of the existing business model
- 19:43killing anything that looks differently.
- 19:46And the best companies, and there are few of them, they
- 19:49are paranoid of disappearing.
- 19:52So they create a fertile ground where people can explore and there'll be
- 19:58tons of failures, tons of failures, but the winners will emerge.
- 20:01And I think with the technology as powerful as ai, you just
- 20:06don't know what's gonna work.
- 20:08So you have to explore.
- 20:10But when your existing business model continues to kill everything that you
- 20:13know, you're trying, it's not gonna work.
- 20:15Right?
- 20:15So a lot of companies, you'll have, you have innovators.
- 20:18They find something that works because you don't lack ideas, you don't lack,
- 20:22you know, the people who could build it.
- 20:24But then the system, the business model, like how you run your company, will
- 20:30kill anything unless the leadership has a very clear vision where we're
- 20:35going and is gonna help support some of those that look like winners invest
- 20:40more or scale them, because most ideas, they die in the scaling phase.
- 20:44Yeah.
- 20:45Companies have amazing ideas.
- 20:47Now, the wrong part, just quickly back to the exploit, what companies do often
- 20:53very wrong is they want to win big.
- 20:55So they invest in one big idea.
- 20:57Yeah.
- 20:57So the corporate antibodies won't kill it because it's already so big.
- 21:02Mm-hmm.
- 21:02That's the problem.
- 21:03They couldn't shut it down.
- 21:04They couldn't shut it down.
- 21:05Right.
- 21:05So I remember one person telling me, oh, Alex, in our company, it's actually very
- 21:09hard to get money for project, but once we got it, it's hard to turn off the town.
- 21:14Right?
- 21:14So they continue doing things that won't work instead of creating more like a,
- 21:18an ecosystem where they can explore.
- 21:20So that's why these giants have a hard time too.
- 21:22Is there a law in that?
- 21:23Because that was the original question.
- 21:24Ostweralder's Law.
- 21:25Yeah.
- 21:27Of the killing business model.
- 21:28There is a solution around, but I just haven't seen enough example.
- 21:32But let's pull our heads together, right, because there is a idea about modularity.
- 21:38Yeah.
- 21:38And you apply into Inside Company.
- 21:41That could be quite powerful because what you described is that I need
- 21:44to be able to stitch together a business model and dismantle it.
- 21:49At speed with scale.
- 21:51And I could only think about one theoretically is the modularity.
- 21:55Sure.
- 21:55That any capabilities or any way of working a small
- 21:59team is like microservices.
- 22:00And here we are thinkers 50.
- 22:02We all heard about a higher story.
- 22:04I see a little bit about MasterCard, but I just haven't seen enough company who have
- 22:10gone down the long train of hard work.
- 22:14Mm-hmm.
- 22:14Break up the monolith from tech stack to organizational design to, you
- 22:21know, institutionalize a new culture.
- 22:24Yeah.
- 22:24But once you actually have that theoretically conceptually you
- 22:29could actually adapt quite quickly because the sunk cost is lower.
- 22:33Yeah.
- 22:34And also you could build something relatively quick and when it doesn't work,
- 22:38you could dismantle re-channel elsewhere.
- 22:40Yeah.
- 22:41Any other example?
- 22:42No, let
- 22:42me, let me build on that because that's actually a really good point.
- 22:45Modularity makes you structurally agile, so you're building
- 22:48capabilities, you can recombine them.
- 22:51There's a challenge with modularity as well, and that is that traditionally
- 22:56companies were defensible because they had high fixed costs, right?
- 23:01But if you just build out all these building blocks and
- 23:03everybody else's building blocks, the values to entry go away.
- 23:06Oh my God.
- 23:06Where's the new value to entry?
- 23:07So the way I see this happening, and I'll take the example that we
- 23:11both love so much Shein, right?
- 23:13The barrier to entry is you need to be modular, but you need to
- 23:16integrate across the modules where you can compound your learning.
- 23:20Mm.
- 23:21Traditional vertical integration was based on the idea of minimized transaction
- 23:24costs and maximize your margin that you can capture from the customer.
- 23:28Yes.
- 23:28Today that does not matter.
- 23:29You know, value chains are going modular, but still a new vertical integration
- 23:33that we see with companies like Shein and intelligent manufacturing companies like
- 23:36Tesla is make your capabilities modular.
- 23:40Yes.
- 23:40But identify which capabilities will help you create a learning engine through
- 23:45which you are able to create a proprietary learning engine across those capabilities.
- 23:48And over time, once you've captured the learning, then you
- 23:51can modularize and commoditize those capabilities if you want to.
- 23:54But if you don't create that learning engine, that learning loop, you
- 23:57become modular and commoditized.
- 23:59That's the challenge.
- 24:00And Shein is a very good example because you know, just to wrap this traditional
- 24:03manufacturing is to work on the logic of.
- 24:06Market research, let's get ideas from the market.
- 24:09Let's convert that into new design, new production.
- 24:12So H&M
- 24:13right?
- 24:13For instance, h
- 24:14and m. But again, it, it's, it's, the logic applies not just to fashion.
- 24:18Correct.
- 24:19Across the board.
- 24:20Yeah.
- 24:20You know, it applies to material science, it applies to Moderna and
- 24:23how it came out with the vaccine.
- 24:25All of that is possible when you reimagine, going back to your
- 24:30point, your architecture as take a small piece of evidence, whether
- 24:35from the market or from the lab.
- 24:37Convert it into a small batch production, take it to the market and do a small test.
- 24:41And you can do that only if you're modular, but then own the whole chain
- 24:44so that you're learning and you're capturing the intelligence for yourself.
- 24:47That's really good.
- 24:49This is why I love this conversation, right?
- 24:50It's like there are so much discovery for me right now because what you
- 24:54suggest there is the traditional competitive advantage is over.
- 24:57Yeah.
- 24:58We are not talking about transient advantage here neither.
- 25:00No.
- 25:01But when you build a feedback loop, then you could always run
- 25:04faster than any competition.
- 25:06Absolutely.
- 25:07And and that's interesting because I could see fashion, you describe in
- 25:11your book John Deere, that they don't just make tractors, but each of these
- 25:16tractors becomes a little information gathering out there in the field.
- 25:19Yeah.
- 25:19Across worldwide.
- 25:21Figma against Adobe in your book again.
- 25:24But is this idea you building so many feedback loops.
- 25:28So that you know much better at a global basis, what are the
- 25:33little tweak I could do to win?
- 25:35I call one inch ahead, right?
- 25:36In the end, you don't need to be perfect.
- 25:38Wow.
- 25:39It's to what?
- 25:40Powerful idea.
- 25:42I'll add something to the equation.
- 25:43Yeah.
- 25:43So a hundred percent with you, the continuous feedback loop to go faster,
- 25:49but within an existing business model.
- 25:52So what you need to add is, right, investing in many
- 25:56ideas of which many will fail.
- 25:58Yes.
- 25:59Right?
- 25:59So you can't iterate yourself to success, right?
- 26:02So what, what we have in venture capital, which works really well, is the fact that
- 26:05we invest small amounts of money in a lot of ideas and you know, 90% will die
- 26:10and then we double down and invest in the 10%, the whole portfolio approach, right?
- 26:13So what's missing in addition to those quick feedback loops is also the idea.
- 26:19Failure, if we do it the right way, is actually gonna let the best ideas emerge.
- 26:23So we start small.
- 26:24That's beautiful.
- 26:24We invest small and then we double down.
- 26:26Absolutely.
- 26:26And it comes back to, so the, this is actually an interesting
- 26:28phenomenon and that's why probably 95% of projects in AI don't work.
- 26:33Mm-hmm.
- 26:33Is that in, established companies, what gives you prestige, ah, how
- 26:37many people you manage and how much money you, you, you, you manage.
- 26:42Right?
- 26:42So we think, oh, big company, we need big return, which is true, but the problem
- 26:47is now we make big investments upfront.
- 26:49Now what happens if you give a bunch of engineers and a bunch of scientists a
- 26:53lot of money, they're gonna spend it.
- 26:55Yeah, yeah.
- 26:56So there's no, there's no feedback.
- 26:58There's no learning loop.
- 26:59Ah, so you,
- 27:00invest the same amount of money in a hundred teams or 200 teams, and you
- 27:06after three months kill the projects if they can't show you evidence
- 27:09that the customers actually care.
- 27:10So you create a very similar system to venture capital, but within your company.
- 27:14Yeah.
- 27:14Yeah.
- 27:14And again, the small thing is the challenge because.
- 27:17Every large company started small Nestlé, you know, 150 years ago mm-hmm.
- 27:21Was a startup.
- 27:21Mm-hmm.
- 27:22Mm-hmm.
- 27:22It started small before it became big.
- 27:24And in large companies, we want to cut corners, make a big
- 27:26investment, which works in exploit, but doesn't work, in explore.
- 27:30Right.
- 27:30So that's the big challenge, is that small things become big, but in, in
- 27:36large companies you don't like small, but every, every big idea starts small.
- 27:39Yeah.
- 27:39So the best company may not be armed with the best idea, but they
- 27:43certainly let the worst idea fail fast.
- 27:46Mm-hmm.
- 27:46Exactly.
- 27:46Exactly.
- 27:47There's one thing, , it's , again, serendipity.
- 27:48I'm reading this book, permission Denied, it's called 'cause Chuck House,
- 27:52this guy, he was told , by Packard, don't be working on this project.
- 27:57I don't wanna see this project in a lab in a year.
- 27:59Mm-hmm.
- 28:00So he interpreted it purposely, he selectively heard what he heard.
- 28:04And he said, okay, so you want it in the field in a year.
- 28:09But what he was told specifically not to do it, and he did it behind closed doors.
- 28:13And he himself, he's an engineer, went out with his family on a tour,
- 28:18drove around to different types of customers, took out his front seat of
- 28:21his Volkswagen Beetle and put in this machine and showed it to customers.
- 28:25And the only way that project took off was because one of his colleagues had
- 28:29had a heart attack and wanted to see his heart monitor on a heart monitor.
- 28:33And his wife was a nurse and his wife said, this would
- 28:36be a very valuable project.
- 28:37Now I say all that to say a, he was told by the leader of the company, the owner of
- 28:43the company, the founder of the company.
- 28:45Who, and this is where I did the re do the research.
- 28:48I looked at his book, and in his book he said, give engineers the space to explore.
- 28:54Yes.
- 28:54Mm-hmm.
- 28:55And that is a contra a, a contradiction or a paradox that
- 28:59you see time and time again.
- 29:01And I really wanted you guys to share your view of that because you
- 29:04work with CEOs and I think sometimes they believe they're giving people
- 29:09permission, but if those permissions, you mentioned the fire phone, if they fail.
- 29:13Yeah.
- 29:13And I use that term.
- 29:14You keep a receipt.
- 29:15Yeah.
- 29:16You're, you have a blemish in your career.
- 29:17Chuck how said this about himself, he said he did a second project
- 29:21after having that hero project.
- 29:23He himself said, we need to kill the project.
- 29:25Mm-hmm.
- 29:26And he lost all his management.
- 29:28All his budget, and all of a sudden he was starting, he was, he went from hero
- 29:31to zero and he had to build that again.
- 29:33Yeah.
- 29:33That is a problem.
- 29:35And that makes people like him give up.
- 29:38Now he didn't, but they're very, very rare.
- 29:40And the corporate immune system doesn't let them flourish.
- 29:42And that's because we still have that hero syndrome.
- 29:45It's that one person who needs to fight the system.
- 29:47Like, yeah, well then you'll get one innovation every, you know, 50 years.
- 29:51So why didn't ne Nestle come up with one Nespresso?
- 29:54Right?
- 29:54Because that's the hero system, right?
- 29:56Mm-hmm.
- 29:57So what we need is actually a real system that leadership supports.
- 30:01Mm-hmm.
- 30:01So that many can explore.
- 30:03And if you fail, it's not gonna blemish you.
- 30:05And, and you know, you can love Amazon or hate Amazon, but when Jeb Bezos was CEO,
- 30:10he did say like, you know, invention.
- 30:12He called it invention.
- 30:13Success and invention, like the, flip side.
- 30:16You cannot invent, do new things without failure.
- 30:19And then he would say, which is.
- 30:20Kind of crazy, right?
- 30:21, The bigger we get with Amazon, the bigger our failures need to get, otherwise
- 30:25we're not gonna move the needle.
- 30:26Yeah.
- 30:26But what he didn't say is people will get that one wrong.
- 30:29Everything starts with small failures until they get to a big failure.
- 30:33There's often very many iterations, right?
- 30:35Yeah.
- 30:35But you mentioned that, right?
- 30:36The Kindle fire phone team was not fired.
- 30:39They, they moved.
- 30:41They moved.
- 30:42And be, those engineers came up with Alexa.
- 30:45Alexa afterwards.
- 30:46But what is interesting is you could actually audit a company.
- 30:51To what extent they could embrace that resilience or that thick skin.
- 30:56You just ask how do you conduct your after action review?
- 31:00Do you write it down to what extent you will share?
- 31:04So in a microcosm, and people wrote about it, and you're
- 31:09looking at booking.com, right?
- 31:11They do tons of experiment and engineers need to log their
- 31:15experiment in a centralized system.
- 31:18And then no permission needs to ask.
- 31:20So a junior guy in Sydney can look up What's going on with a VP
- 31:25in Amsterdam is, you know, right to know, not need to know basis.
- 31:29And so there are actually day-to-day habit, we as external can help
- 31:35audit and to what extent we are embracing radical transparency.
- 31:39Without transparency, there's no learning because knowledge doesn't flow around.
- 31:44Yeah, and I'll just add one point to because these are very interesting
- 31:47perspectives going back to your point about architecture as well.
- 31:51And I, I think it's absolutely, you know, you are absolutely spot on about the
- 31:56fact that there is no way to really get to the next breakthrough without that
- 32:02permission to fail and without letting so-called a thousand flowers bloom.
- 32:07And what helps kind of, as a company, what's important for you
- 32:11to then succeed with it, because you want things to succeed, but
- 32:15then how do they fit together?
- 32:16Mm. What's that picture?
- 32:17So you need to be very clear about what do we want to become, you
- 32:20know, as the world is changing, what do we want to become in, in, in a
- 32:23year from now, two years from now?
- 32:25You know, it's not a one year, two year plan.
- 32:26You can't plan when, when the structure is uncertain.
- 32:29But you need to have a vision of here's what we wanna be, here's the logic of
- 32:34how we'll operate 1, 2, 3 years from now.
- 32:35And constantly update that based on how things are changing.
- 32:38But then as these experiments succeed, see how they align towards that.
- 32:42Because you're not just sharing fin financial returns, and this is the only
- 32:45mild deviation from venture capital where the portfolio model itself is sufficient.
- 32:50Here, you don't want this a portfolio.
- 32:51You want architecturally cohesive returns.
- 32:55And so you need to have that vision, that architecture of capabilities, and
- 32:58then say, okay, that maps back here.
- 33:00Mm-hmm.
- 33:01But here's, can I just build on what you said at the end?
- 33:04Because I think that vision piece.
- 33:07Is missing a lot in established companies.
- 33:09Right.
- 33:10So just ask yourself, how many CEOs can you now, you know, count on your one
- 33:16hand probably that, that you can remember having a very clear vision of the future.
- 33:21Right.
- 33:21So you mentioned MasterCard was just very beautiful example of having a very, very
- 33:24clear articulation of what that vision is.
- 33:27And then they don't know exactly how to get there.
- 33:29Right.
- 33:29That's the experimentation part.
- 33:30Right.
- 33:30But the vision will not change.
- 33:31And the vision is not a budget.
- 33:33I think
- 33:33a lot of time we've seen is that it's a
- 33:35vision of the future.
- 33:36We have a vision.
- 33:37Yeah.
- 33:37How much time do I need to tell you that we want to grow by X amount?
- 33:41That is not a, that is not
- 33:43inspiring.
- 33:44Inspiring.
- 33:44And
- 33:45MasterCard said the former CEO kill cash.
- 33:49That's it.
- 33:49And that's the vision, right?
- 33:50That's the, we operate within that,
- 33:52the vision and everything just fall through throughout the organization.
- 33:55Now I'm in Africa, a small team working in Kenya.
- 34:00Oh.
- 34:01I need to kill cash.
- 34:03So I'm gonna work with local telco company so that there will
- 34:06be mobile transaction happening.
- 34:08I mean, Italy, Sicily, again, kill cash.
- 34:11What does it mean?
- 34:12And, and I thought this is so interesting, right?
- 34:14Because it's hard work
- 34:16and, and try things because not everything is gonna work, right?
- 34:19A hundred percent.
- 34:19So some ideas will grow.
- 34:21Into that, how are we gonna make that vision?
- 34:24But from all those experiences, you have some that will succeed.
- 34:26No, I think this is
- 34:27really a, a really compelling example.
- 34:29The, the idea of kill cash within it has the assumptions
- 34:33of where we play and how we win.
- 34:34Exactly.
- 34:35It assumes that we are not playing in a cash economy and the way to win
- 34:38is not to continue investing that.
- 34:40So cool.
- 34:40And I, I think, you know, just a one line really quick, interesting
- 34:43example happening right now.
- 34:45Mm. Is shutter stock is having a Kodak moment today, right?
- 34:49Because just like you know, photos, you can generate photos hundred percent,
- 34:53but Shutterstock has reimagined itself to say, we are going to be
- 34:57the place to guarantee good photo usage in a world of abundant photos.
- 35:01Mm. Love it.
- 35:02So artists will be compensated.
- 35:04We are going to do a partnership with OpenAI so that they can use our catalog,
- 35:07but then the artists will be compensated.
- 35:09And if you're an organization.
- 35:11You don't need photos, but you need consistent photo
- 35:14usage across the organization.
- 35:15We'll do that governance for you.
- 35:17We'll move it away from execution to governance.
- 35:18Mm-hmm.
- 35:19So it's again, you know, vision and then aligning everything in that direction.
- 35:22And FYI, I
- 35:23love Shutterstock is like, you know, you, you going into different platform
- 35:28and this is like all these are junk.
- 35:29And now I understand why.
- 35:31Yeah.
- 35:31We were talking
- 35:32about competitive advantage before.
- 35:34And I think there's one thing that is very interesting to look at today is that
- 35:38you still get some competitive advantage from a very strong business model.
- 35:42So why is, you know, you have, we have Apple with iOS and
- 35:45we have Google with Android.
- 35:46They're just two.
- 35:47Yeah.
- 35:47Why?
- 35:48Because their business models are literally invincible.
- 35:51But now when you look at the most successful companies, you can actually
- 35:55see that they have a culture Yeah.
- 35:57Of experimentation.
- 35:58So just back to those who made it explicit, take Amazon, take Netflix.
- 36:03They made very clear.
- 36:05How they invest in innovation.
- 36:08So they don't just use the words they clearly show, like, take Amazon, we
- 36:13invest long term and we invest short term.
- 36:15Yeah, we're gonna be world class at managing warehouses, but we're also gonna
- 36:19be , world class at exploring new things.
- 36:21So you could actually read, now I'm not a great investor, but I
- 36:25always look back at those things.
- 36:27The writing was on the wall, Netflix, same thing.
- 36:29Mm-hmm.
- 36:29So you can see which companies actually invest not in a technology.
- 36:34So not Oh, metaverse ai.
- 36:35That's not the point.
- 36:36Mm-hmm.
- 36:36What they invest in is explicitly in the key aspects of an innovation
- 36:42culture within the company.
- 36:43And we can map those.
- 36:44You can see those, yes.
- 36:46So then it doesn't matter if it's ai, if it's whatever, any technology.
- 36:51So the technology is never the challenge.
- 36:54That's the opportunity.
- 36:55The challenge is that the company hasn't built the ability to reinvent itself.
- 37:00Yeah.
- 37:00So you can look at that and we could codify that.
- 37:02It would be actually great academic research.
- 37:04Can we codify an innovation culture?
- 37:06I believe so, because you know, you read Deb Bezos's investment letters.
- 37:11Mm-hmm.
- 37:11He's been, he's been saying exactly what he is doing.
- 37:14Yeah.
- 37:14You could copy that.
- 37:15Yeah.
- 37:16This is, that.
- 37:17Very few companies have actually copied that innovation.
- 37:20DNA
- 37:20and what Alex mentioned there is so important because the
- 37:25exploration bit, they actually codify as explicit mechanism.
- 37:30Yes.
- 37:30As like organizational stuff.
- 37:32You could see Yes.
- 37:33The six pager before even ChatGPT coming along, people need to write
- 37:38a press release, work backwards.
- 37:40Yeah.
- 37:40The one way door.
- 37:40Two-way door.
- 37:41Correct.
- 37:41Correct.
- 37:42So these are the artifact you could say is auditable.
- 37:47You are walking in, you ask.
- 37:49And what strikes me is whenever we have conversation with AWS and middle manager.
- 37:53They just roll it out from their tongue, so it's not some C-suite corporate talk.
- 37:59They live in day to day.
- 38:00That mechanism for explore, mechanism for exploit and the Handover between
- 38:06the two to scale and shut things down every steps along the way.
- 38:11That's mechanism codified processes getting us there.
- 38:20There's a very important point in here that I really don't want our audience to
- 38:23miss, and especially if you're a leader.
- 38:26You mentioned about Bezos letters and.
- 38:29Through his letters, he's constantly communicating with shareholders.
- 38:32Yes.
- 38:32He's constantly communicating with his own teams.
- 38:34Yes.
- 38:34He's putting it out there for a very important reason.
- 38:37Yes.
- 38:37And to your point about vision, there's a concept in innovation called hunting
- 38:42zones, where it's, where do we play?
- 38:44Where do we explore?
- 38:45So an example, Nvidia gaming or autonomous vehicles.
- 38:49So you're giving people a kind of a place to go, oh, I can explore here.
- 38:53Much like the war on cash type of idea.
- 38:56Yeah.
- 38:56That is, that doesn't matter about ai, that doesn't matter about digital, doesn't
- 39:01matter about whatever your business does.
- 39:04It's actually something that's so controllable by leaders.
- 39:07And I'd love you to share a bit about this because it's so
- 39:10absent in so many organizations.
- 39:12Like your point about in Amazon, they can roll it off the tongue.
- 39:15Yeah.
- 39:16But most organizations, as you go down the elevator That's right.
- 39:18In the organization, the, the message is diluted as you go down.
- 39:22Mm-hmm.
- 39:22We work with one company that doesn't have hunting zones, but they actually
- 39:28did invest in some really great ideas and they got them to a certain stage.
- 39:33They, they're experimenting, these are real businesses, but
- 39:37they're not breaking through.
- 39:38Why is because they do not have a clear vision of the future.
- 39:42So not the hunting ground per se, because they did the, that work.
- 39:45So the businesses could actually scale, but now there's no explicit
- 39:50vision of where the company's going.
- 39:52Like how the, how's the world gonna look like?
- 39:54How are we gonna go there?
- 39:55And then there's no explicit protection of these ideas that
- 39:59made it to a certain level.
- 40:01So here's what's gonna happen.
- 40:02If there is no protection of those ideas, yeah, they're gonna die because the
- 40:06corporate antibodies are really strong.
- 40:09So in that case, because I do think we have different cases in that case,
- 40:13is really, you have the idea, you have the evidence, everything is proven.
- 40:17But from here, to turn that into a meaningful part of the multi-billion
- 40:21dollar company is actually the willingness to now scale these ideas.
- 40:26Mm-hmm.
- 40:26To take that risk as leadership.
- 40:28And the challenge you have is that the CEO and the C-suite
- 40:31doesn't actually call the shots.
- 40:33Mm.
- 40:33It's the board and the investors.
- 40:36So there's a huge personal risk to leaders taking that last step.
- 40:41It is easy to do the portfolio part and the small bets and the failure, but then
- 40:46actually investing is the last piece.
- 40:49So, you know, it's not possible everywhere.
- 40:51Amazon could invest in Amazon web services.
- 40:53Why?
- 40:53Because the ownership structure, because the stock market said you guys are crazy.
- 40:58Why are you doing I.T. infrastructure when you're an e-commerce company?
- 41:01Mm-hmm.
- 41:02So there is a thing there.
- 41:03And take Paul Pullman, you know, with the whole sustainability,
- 41:06sustainability vision, he took a huge personal risk and he did something,
- 41:11you could almost argue it's maybe illegal.
- 41:13He told shareholders, if you want it.
- 41:15You know, invest with us, think long term.
- 41:17Mm-hmm.
- 41:18What he forgot to mention is they're the owners.
- 41:20You can't tell the owners what to do.
- 41:21But, so there's something there that I think in the conversation is that
- 41:26we talk about the C-suite as if they made the decisions, but when you do not
- 41:30have board members in the stock market that understands how a company has to
- 41:34transform, it's gonna be very hard.
- 41:36Mm-hmm.
- 41:36And they nearly have to face an existential crisis like Shutterstock.
- 41:40Yeah.
- 41:41Yeah.
- 41:41In order to, to get that architectural shift inside an organization.
- 41:45You've got great examples of this.
- 41:46No, I, I think, you know, we are, we are sort of, kind of dancing around
- 41:50a really nice theory over here.
- 41:51There's corporate antibodies, which I really love.
- 41:54There's a second piece, which is architectural alignment.
- 41:57Mm-hmm and vision.
- 41:58And you need to balance that together.
- 41:59And I'll add a third thing over here, which I think ans you know, adds some
- 42:04flavor to what you're talking about.
- 42:05And, and, and that is that.
- 42:07We have, you know, we have been brought up in a culture of getting to answers.
- 42:12We want to be, we wanna be certain of, here's the answer, I've figured it out.
- 42:16We want to, you know, give confident presentations.
- 42:19And the way to get to answers is you build really good sensing mechanisms.
- 42:24You know, get all the information, get all the data, let's create some
- 42:27nice reports, which give the answers.
- 42:29Well, I believe we are moving to, you know, to a world where answers are cheap.
- 42:35You know, I mean, a, a simple manifestation is, you know, answers
- 42:38used to be $400,000 to McKinsey, and now it's one prompt to ChatGPT.
- 42:42And I'm not saying that they're perfect substitutes, but they're
- 42:44directionally very close.
- 42:46Awesome.
- 42:48Actually, maybe better, right?
- 42:49So like
- 42:50research pay
- 42:50for
- 42:51the premium 300 a month.
- 42:52Do not want to pick up pipes with McKinsey.
- 42:55But, but the, the point is very clear that directionally we're heading in a
- 42:59direction where answers are cheaper.
- 43:00So what do you do when answers are cheaper?
- 43:02The value moves away from getting to answers to asking the right questions.
- 43:06Because asking the wrong questions have opportunity cost of getting
- 43:10you down the wrong rabbit hole.
- 43:11The right questions have compounding benefits.
- 43:13Yeah.
- 43:13One inch ahead compounded is really powerful.
- 43:16Miles.
- 43:16It's not just five inches anymore.
- 43:18And the way to get to that is to move from sensing to sense making.
- 43:23Love it.
- 43:23And that is, don't just look at data, create maps.
- 43:27Mm-hmm.
- 43:27You know, it's the age of exploration.
- 43:29When Portuguese exploration started, they had not figured out Cape
- 43:33of Good Hope, and you know, how we get to Asia and all of that.
- 43:35They constantly created better maps and kept on betting with better maps.
- 43:39Mm-hmm.
- 43:39That's what we need today.
- 43:40So we need to move from sensing to sensemaking at every level of
- 43:44the organization because without that, we're just gonna be caught
- 43:48in, give me better answers.
- 43:50Where's the data for this?
- 43:51Yes, we need data, but for sensemaking.
- 43:52Mm-hmm.
- 43:53Not for getting two answers.
- 43:54So I think that's, you know, that's the final part, and I'll
- 43:57throw into this theory that we
- 43:58are, I mean, what Sangeet you just mentioned is, you know.
- 44:01The most effective executive must have the ability to zoom in and zoom out.
- 44:06Mm-hmm.
- 44:07And range of breadth.
- 44:08And, and, and they cannot just take some reckless bet.
- 44:12And we have seen company take reckless bets.
- 44:15What happened is like in the name of courageous move
- 44:18Yeah.
- 44:18The C-suite actually do not know how to zoom in.
- 44:21Mm-hmm.
- 44:21The best leader is you, you looking at all these iconic leaders from Procter
- 44:25and Gamble to Unilever, from Nvidia to the, at the height of power of Intel.
- 44:31Right.
- 44:31These leaders are not just curious, they don't just hang out at Davos or go to
- 44:37so by Southwest, but they actually are curious enough to zoom in and skip level.
- 44:42Right.
- 44:42They're not gonna put up BS from the direct report.
- 44:45They're gonna go three levels down, but not to just the existing operation,
- 44:50but dive into new, new venture as well.
- 44:53Yeah.
- 44:53And I think if C-Suite outsource their thinking, why should they
- 44:57command such a nice package?
- 45:00And the the thing, what I like about what you're saying is that going back
- 45:04to managerial leadership and, and, and entrepreneurial leadership, the
- 45:09what does an entrepreneur actually need to do on the path to success?
- 45:13Zoom in, zoom out all the time.
- 45:15Yeah, a hundred percent.
- 45:15And so you're from, oh, I'm gonna sign a contract with my first client to how
- 45:19is the world gonna change which business model, you know, is gonna make money so
- 45:23you are forced to zoom in and zoom out.
- 45:26Now in most companies, I shouldn't generalize, but what I see very often
- 45:31with the clients we work with is you'll have world class exceptional
- 45:35leaders in a specific domain.
- 45:37Mm.
- 45:37Marketing, operations, finance, but they're not used to zooming in and out
- 45:42of all the topics and how they connect.
- 45:44Because in an established business, in the exploit part, you don't have
- 45:49to always understand everything.
- 45:51These are well oiled, oiled machine.
- 45:53Yeah.
- 45:53But as soon as you do something new, it's not gonna be enough
- 45:56to just understand operations.
- 45:58Oh, clients don't care.
- 45:59Okay.
- 46:00We might want to change that.
- 46:01Oh.
- 46:02You have to have to sign this contract with the government
- 46:04to be allowed to do that.
- 46:06So you have to navigate and that entrepreneurial thinking and zooming in,
- 46:11zooming out, and then adapting constantly.
- 46:14That's not a skill that, you know, it does exist in, in established companies,
- 46:19but it's not one we value very much.
- 46:21You say, oh, that's an annoying person now.
- 46:23Yeah.
- 46:23She's bringing up this and that and you know, like that is the
- 46:26skill that allows you to explore and that exists in companies.
- 46:31They don't have a place to explore it.
- 46:32They
- 46:32don't, and they often get thrown out like an antibody would crush Yes.
- 46:37Crush a a, a pathogen.
- 46:39One of the things that came to mind, and it was based on something that you
- 46:42said, Sangeet, about the idea of data access to data from diverse sources.
- 46:47I thought about this and excuse the, the analogy I think
- 46:50in analogies and metaphors.
- 46:52I was reading recently about what the effects of psychotropic
- 46:57drugs do to the brain.
- 46:58So psilocybin, for example, is that the brain has, these, has been
- 47:01compartmentalized or balkanized, you mentioned that term earlier on.
- 47:04It's been, it's got these compartments for specialties and what these drugs
- 47:09do is that they turn them off so the brain starts to connect across Right.
- 47:13And make, literally make connections that were broken in the past.
- 47:17Mm-hmm.
- 47:17And I thought about the data thing, but then I thought more importantly, and you
- 47:21were saying about how you've had some insights today, and this is the goal
- 47:25of this innovation show X is to bring people who have expertise together to
- 47:29have discussions across those boundaries.
- 47:32But inside organizations, people exist within these silos for very good reason.
- 47:38Yeah.
- 47:39But now because the architecture of the organization to the point
- 47:42of Conway's law needs to change.
- 47:44They need to be flowing into each other, sharing information and be,
- 47:50be, not, feel threatened by that.
- 47:52Mm-hmm.
- 47:52And that's a huge, huge issue.
- 47:54Again, to the point of.
- 47:55This is a reshuffle, not of technology, but of structure.
- 47:59Yeah, no, I think so I love the analogy, you know, irrespective of
- 48:03what people have issues with the, with the exact topic, but we need
- 48:07psychotropic drugs for organization.
- 48:09It's in your drinks, everybody's finished.
- 48:12Yeah.
- 48:12That's why, that's why we are making connection, right.
- 48:14Another refill everybody.
- 48:16So we need that.
- 48:18And we need that because I, I believe that you know, a lot of the theories on which
- 48:23we are basing our ideas today, were built in an era which was relatively stable.
- 48:28So modularity, explore, exploit.
- 48:31When you were, when, when these theories were built out, that
- 48:34was an era of stable structure.
- 48:36You still thought of industries you thought of, markets you did not
- 48:39thought of, to think of continuous customer journeys and industry
- 48:42boundaries melting together.
- 48:44So the point is that all of that is still important, but you can't compartmentalize.
- 48:48That's the team that does exploring and here's a team that does
- 48:51exploiting because you're constantly, you're constantly going to have to
- 48:56manage both things all the time.
- 48:58It's not, yes, you want to explore and then you want to exploit,
- 49:02but you don't move to phases.
- 49:04You have to balance them constantly.
- 49:06You might be exploiting something while something else shows up on the horizon.
- 49:08So it's, we are going to be living in cycles and and, and not in stages.
- 49:14And if we are going to live in cycles, we have to.
- 49:17You know, really inject organizations with those psychotropic drugs.
- 49:19That's the only way to do that.
- 49:21Otherwise, you, you're, you're otherwise, you're just going to, you
- 49:24know, look at balance sheets, you're gonna look at teams, you're gonna
- 49:26look at budgets, and you're gonna say, okay, that's the explore part.
- 49:29And let them do that till, till we kill them.
- 49:31And here's some exploiting that.
- 49:33That's very good.
- 49:33Let's throw money over there.
- 49:35That's, it's just a wrong way to think about uncertainty and change.
- 49:39Yeah.
- 49:39A hundred percent.
- 49:39But you, you activate, this is back to the vision, back to the hunting
- 49:42zones, back to the shareholder letters.
- 49:45You activate the certain part of the brain, the reticular activating system.
- 49:49Mm-hmm.
- 49:49To actually go, these are important.
- 49:52These are places to look.
- 49:54These are places for hints for the future.
- 49:56And the exploiters of the organization are usually on the edges.
- 49:59And Andy Grove famously said, snow melts from the edges.
- 50:01Mm-hmm.
- 50:02That's where the changes first start to happen.
- 50:04And the exploration teams are usually in a lab somewhere or an
- 50:08R and d department where they have no access to the outside world.
- 50:11Yeah.
- 50:11And it's that thing, and I, I know some certain people are more exploration
- 50:16minded, maybe more curious, but when people are activated to go, this is
- 50:20actually important to the organization, then they can start to notice things.
- 50:24Yeah.
- 50:24But the way it actually works is you cannot have black and white.
- 50:28So what people sometimes confuse is they think explore lifts somewhere,
- 50:32exploit lifts somewhere else.
- 50:33So what I like to talk about is the dual mindset is that I'm a CEO.
- 50:38So guess what?
- 50:39You know, I have a meeting with the sales team for a known product while
- 50:43I'm in exploit mode, and then I have a meeting with my product team looking
- 50:46at something new, the same person.
- 50:48I need to ask completely different questions.
- 50:51So I'm in explore mode.
- 50:52So it's not that it lives there, it lives here.
- 50:54No, you flip between these all the time.
- 50:57And then you'll have people that, you know, maybe in sales, they
- 51:00see some needs there and they become part of an explore team.
- 51:03Yeah.
- 51:03So you have that fluidity that you're kind of referring to.
- 51:07That's true.
- 51:08Explore, exploit.
- 51:09It's not left, right, black, white.
- 51:11It's like, it's that fluidity where we constantly explore and we'll have people
- 51:16who are more comfortable with exploit.
- 51:18They'll rarely be part of an explore team.
- 51:20Mm-hmm.
- 51:20But they need to maybe enable an explore
- 51:22team.
- 51:22Yeah.
- 51:23So that fluidity is gonna be incredibly important.
- 51:27And I do think some companies are better at it and some companies are not.
- 51:30And I think the worst ones are when they, when you have
- 51:33Oh, the explorer's over there.
- 51:35Yeah.
- 51:35And then you have cynicism.
- 51:36Oh, you're gonna go put up some sticky notes or play ping pong and you know, I
- 51:40don't like the cynicism because there's something there that is actually true.
- 51:44Yeah.
- 51:45But it's because we don't fully understand yet.
- 51:47I'd say that.
- 51:48Often the leaders haven't fully embraced this, but once you tell
- 51:51them how this works, I see a lot of leaders who say, wow, I wanna do that.
- 51:56Now, do they make the jump?
- 51:57There's a risk to it that that's another question.
- 51:59And just in case some of the audience may feel like, oh, but I work in a
- 52:02conservative industry or in a conservative region, GDPR wouldn't allow this.
- 52:08And, and I'm gonna translate Alex description into workable solution.
- 52:12Yes.
- 52:12And
- 52:12everyone needs to play a part.
- 52:14Yes.
- 52:14Now, the CEO must,
- 52:16yes.
- 52:16Call out a vision.
- 52:18Now, if you know the C-suite have no idea where we're gonna moving in and just a
- 52:21budget, they're not doing the homework.
- 52:24But then at the team level, divisional level, the team lead must
- 52:29be the one who opens up sandboxes.
- 52:31Okay?
- 52:32You're in healthcare, life science, a lot of constraint.
- 52:34Fine.
- 52:35Create sandboxes so that others, a junior guy can combine your internal
- 52:41data, external market data, run an AI experiment within a safe sandbox.
- 52:45Yes.
- 52:46Report back in two weeks.
- 52:47Yes.
- 52:48If that junior guy requires five approval, seven approval form, fix it.
- 52:53That's the team responsibility in pdf, right?
- 52:56In PDF as well.
- 52:57And then if you happen to be junior or individual contributor, when you
- 53:02see the sandbox open, volunteer.
- 53:05So what is beautiful about what Alex said is you could apply to life science in
- 53:11Europe in the most conservative country.
- 53:14And that's fine because what you're aiming for, again, it's not perfection
- 53:18like Nvidia, but one in your head, right?
- 53:19Yes.
- 53:20And then you win.
- 53:20Yes.
- 53:21Yes.
- 53:21There's an important thing I wanted to bring up.
- 53:23Alex mentioned about you.
- 53:25It's very difficult to reorient the organization on unless it's board level
- 53:30approved or, or it comes from the top.
- 53:33And I, I, I thought about Joe Bower's work.
- 53:36Yeah.
- 53:36So you studied under Joe Bauer and location resource allocation process.
- 53:40Yes.
- 53:40And, and I always think of resource allocation process as
- 53:44there's, it's like oil and water.
- 53:46There's a layer that doesn't mix.
- 53:47And that layer is often controlled by management down the organization.
- 53:51And for the point of Andy Grove.
- 53:54Yeah.
- 53:54Andy Grove didn't decide the organization was beginning.
- 53:57Mm-hmm.
- 53:57Become a mm-hmm.
- 53:58Semiconductor.
- 53:59The rules in the organization did.
- 54:01That's right.
- 54:01The, and the middle managed decide where to put those resources.
- 54:05And I wondered where that played a role because it can hijack the
- 54:09strategy of the organization that leadership think they're doing this.
- 54:12Mm-hmm.
- 54:12But management or people who actually control the resources, they're doing this.
- 54:16Correct.
- 54:16And that can be positive sometimes, like we saw with Intel, but
- 54:20sometimes it can actually hijack the organization in the wrong way.
- 54:23A hundred
- 54:23percent.
- 54:23So I think this is why that Burgelman extension at that autonomous
- 54:27activity is really important.
- 54:29Now, back.
- 54:30You just need a few autonomous activity.
- 54:32That's fine.
- 54:34Because the world was slow.
- 54:35Yes.
- 54:35And what we are discussing here is like you need to turbocharge.
- 54:38Yeah.
- 54:38And so you need to have mechanisms going back earlier so that whether sandboxes,
- 54:44whether it is documentation, so that that autonomous activity could go much faster.
- 54:50And when something works, you can then scale through intermodularity
- 54:55within the organization or shut things down as quickly as possible.
- 54:59And that is, the contour is still right for sure.
- 55:03But the speed of change does demand an additional accelerant.
- 55:08And, and that add to that, that innovation is always bottom up, but you need
- 55:12the top down systems building so that the innovation can actually happen.
- 55:16Yeah.
- 55:17So then I add, I like to add to this mix when I'm working with some companies.
- 55:21I say, why is it dangerous when the CEO has an idea?
- 55:25What's the problem with the CEO's idea?
- 55:27We've all seen this, right?
- 55:29Nobody tells the CEO their baby's ugly.
- 55:32So actually innovation should not come.
- 55:34Interesting.
- 55:35Come from the top in terms and when we're truly talking innovation Yeah.
- 55:38Exploit is different.
- 55:39Yeah.
- 55:39But new breakthrough ideas don't come from the top.
- 55:42Now, what comes from the top is the vision.
- 55:44This is the direction where we're going, how we're gonna do it.
- 55:48Like what do customers care about?
- 55:49What are they willing to pay for?
- 55:51Leaders don't know if we're talking about the new world.
- 55:53Yeah.
- 55:53Because what they know is the past world.
- 55:54Yeah.
- 55:55So they'll make decisions based on the past world.
- 55:57So what we actually need to start to do is.
- 55:59Have this evidence-based investments mm-hmm.
- 56:02That are bottom up.
- 56:03Mm-hmm.
- 56:04Yeah.
- 56:04But within a strategic direction, within a vision.
- 56:06So kind of, you know, left, right, bottom up and zooming and zooming out.
- 56:10That's right.
- 56:11That's right.
- 56:11That's what we need to create these organizations that are
- 56:13extremely, I I would say fluid better than more than Agile.
- 56:17'cause Agile has been hijack.
- 56:18That's right.
- 56:19I, I fully agree.
- 56:20I mean, I'm, I'm really glad you bring that point up because I think Agile comes
- 56:23from a world of operational uncertainty, which means that the structure is fixed.
- 56:27We know what game we are playing.
- 56:29Yes.
- 56:29We just have to figure out how to play it better.
- 56:30Mm-hmm.
- 56:31Fluid is that we need to morph, and that's because the game has to constantly change.
- 56:36So you need to keep morphing, but the challenge with morphing is you need
- 56:40to ask yourself morph towards what.
- 56:42Right.
- 56:43And so increasingly.
- 56:46The biggest driver of shareholder returns, I believe will be the ability
- 56:51to place a bet, take the risk against it and say, this is what we morph towards.
- 56:55And that's not one bet.
- 56:56It, it's constantly changes.
- 56:57But the, the leaders, and, and I'm not just saying CEOs, the CEOs
- 57:01CEO pay is exponentially higher than the rest of the organization.
- 57:05But in increasingly, I, I believe that we'll have to move towards
- 57:08new ways of managing organizations.
- 57:10Where we, reward people who are able to place bets, stand by it, show results, and
- 57:16do that continuously, because continuous bets one inch ahead, I keep coming back to
- 57:21this one inch ahead has to be compounded.
- 57:24Mm-hmm.
- 57:24And the way to do that is to have vision and structure and, you
- 57:28know, take the risk against it.
- 57:29I,
- 57:29I'll give you a challenge because an example, 'cause we're talking about
- 57:32AI at the end of the day, right?
- 57:33Mm-hmm.
- 57:33So I think a lot of these established companies are not aware how AI
- 57:39actually might disrupt them concretely.
- 57:41So if you're a skincare company today.
- 57:44You say, oh, you have a lot of data.
- 57:46Well, probably you have the data on consumer behavior and buying.
- 57:50Right.
- 57:50But like if we're talking ai, it's not gonna be consumer
- 57:53behavior that we care about.
- 57:54We we're gonna care about hugely personalized skincare.
- 57:58That is just for us.
- 58:00And what does that mean?
- 58:00We need access to health data, not consumer buying data because people
- 58:04today they don't know how to buy.
- 58:07That's right.
- 58:07Skincare products that are good for them.
- 58:08Yeah.
- 58:09The only way to decide is actually knowing, you know, either through
- 58:12the mouth or further down.
- 58:14Yeah.
- 58:14Like what is the, what is the data
- 58:16microbiome?
- 58:17Yeah.
- 58:17And I do not see.
- 58:18Any of the skincare companies today actually asking that question, where
- 58:23are we gonna get the data from?
- 58:25Right.
- 58:25So whoever has that data, whoever in skincare, you know, Proctor
- 58:30and Gamble, Unilever, whatever, whoever has that data is gonna win.
- 58:35And companies do not realize sometimes how this whole, you know, containerization
- 58:41is gonna change the landscape.
- 58:42Mm-hmm.
- 58:43Radically.
- 58:43So their business model is already dead today, but they don't realize.
- 58:47Right.
- 58:47So they're not Absolutely.
- 58:50So, you know, I, I, I, I so love this example because skincare is such an
- 58:56interesting example of, you know, you can't just paste it on preferences,
- 58:59it's also health, et cetera.
- 59:01On the other side, AI is having another interesting effect, which is that
- 59:06skincare is based on compounding.
- 59:08You have to figure out new chemicals.
- 59:10Mm-hmm.
- 59:10And
- 59:11AI can figure out chemicals better than human scan.
- 59:13Yeah.
- 59:14But.
- 59:15AI cannot figure out which chemical map to which process map to which end user.
- 59:19Yes.
- 59:19Need of personalization and health will work best.
- 59:23And that go
- 59:23to market to pop up on the feed exactly at the right time
- 59:27with the button right there.
- 59:28Right.
- 59:28And so the way to do that is to have that learning engine that very interesting.
- 59:31All the way from compounding to the, there we
- 59:33go.
- 59:34There we go.
- 59:35And to my knowledge, I don't see, I don't think so.
- 59:38I don't think so.
- 59:39Great opportunity for startup.
- 59:41Exactly.
- 59:42there's an important thing that I didn't wanna leave unsaid, which
- 59:46was, you kind of got at this a little bit, Alex, earlier on we mentioned
- 59:49Alexa and the fire phone, that, that really involves killing a project.
- 59:54Mm-hmm.
- 59:54And why I brought up Chuck House, this gentleman again was, he had a
- 59:58hit product with this screen, then he had a second product and he said,
- 1:00:03and he talked about the visceral feeling, the emotional decision.
- 1:00:06It was irrationally.
- 1:00:07Made total sense to kill the project.
- 1:00:09Right.
- 1:00:09He, he couldn't see a future for it.
- 1:00:11He couldn't see it making any pain, any dividends within two years.
- 1:00:14But emotionally, he said, my career depended on it.
- 1:00:17It meant that my dream of being a manager was gone.
- 1:00:20It meant letting go of this resources it meant actually a blemish on my career.
- 1:00:24And that killing the project is not, even though he had the bravery
- 1:00:30to say it to the organization, he still got punished for that.
- 1:00:32Mm-hmm.
- 1:00:32This is a huge thing, and I know it's something you've talked about.
- 1:00:35It's,
- 1:00:35it's big, right?
- 1:00:35Because, so when I give a talk at a conference, I always ask,
- 1:00:40how many of you are working on a project, you know, should be killed?
- 1:00:44And at least a third of the room hands go up.
- 1:00:47Then another third probably are just, they don't, they're doing it.
- 1:00:50The boss is there, and then one third might actually be working on some success.
- 1:00:54So then I ask, well, why are you guys still working on that?
- 1:00:56Are you stupid?
- 1:00:57And of course, just, you know, mm-hmm.
- 1:00:58No, the, and everybody knows it's the process and the system.
- 1:01:03That doesn't make it possible to kill or doesn't make it easy to kill projects.
- 1:01:07Yeah.
- 1:01:08Yeah.
- 1:01:08So the kill rate should increase.
- 1:01:10And what happens often is that the decision was made to do
- 1:01:15this and then the team learns.
- 1:01:17They actually have the learning engine.
- 1:01:19It's not even that the learning engine is missing.
- 1:01:21They know we should kill this thing.
- 1:01:23It's doomed.
- 1:01:24But there's a disconnect between the team that just learned and
- 1:01:27who's allowed to make the decision.
- 1:01:29Mm.
- 1:01:29And then the whole cultural aspect that you're bringing in the Shein of.
- 1:01:33So that's why we continue to invest in projects that should be killed.
- 1:01:37People know it's not that they don't know.
- 1:01:38That's the crazy part.
- 1:01:40Right.
- 1:01:40So, so we need to build a better system where it's okay to kill projects.
- 1:01:44So I talk about this and we were mentioning the resource allocation thing.
- 1:01:48Yeah.
- 1:01:48We need better resource allocation today to be able to kill the
- 1:01:53project that should be killed.
- 1:01:54Mm-hmm.
- 1:01:55Because we know it's not rocket science.
- 1:01:57Right.
- 1:01:57We often know can be better at the metrics and then we invest
- 1:02:00in those that have the potential.
- 1:02:02So the resource allocation today in companies is still pretty broken, right?
- 1:02:07We all know those budgeting processes, they do not work.
- 1:02:10So there's a huge thing there that, you know, we need to address as well
- 1:02:13if we want these fluid organizations.
- 1:02:15Yeah.
- 1:02:15Because at the end of the day, what do people, you know, work on?
- 1:02:19It's where the money goes, right?
- 1:02:20The budget's for the people, et cetera.
- 1:02:22So, and we, we need to change that.
- 1:02:24Very clear
- 1:02:25closing thoughts, gen closing thoughts.
- 1:02:27So bring it back to where we started, which was ai, the impact on
- 1:02:31business model reshuffling the entire architecture of the organization.
- 1:02:35Closing thoughts May
- 1:02:36Yeah, maybe I'll just bring together my summary of, you
- 1:02:40know, what we have discussed.
- 1:02:41Right?
- 1:02:41Sounds great.
- 1:02:43I, I end my book with this line.
- 1:02:45You don't need an AI strategy.
- 1:02:46You need a strategy for the world that AI creates.
- 1:02:49And I think that's what we are fundamentally talking about over here.
- 1:02:52And that is, you know, going back to your point.
- 1:02:54Where to play, how to win.
- 1:02:56Both those things are constantly changing in order to work towards that.
- 1:02:59What we are also saying over here is it's not enough to be agile.
- 1:03:03In fact, many of the practices that we learned in, in what we call agile, will
- 1:03:07actually hold us back and prevent us from thinking about how to be liquid,
- 1:03:11how to be fluid, how to morph to what we need to become next, and in order to
- 1:03:16really create a good home for innovation.
- 1:03:18I think also what we are saying is you need to let a thousand flowers
- 1:03:21bloom, but that's not enough.
- 1:03:23A culture of failure management is not enough.
- 1:03:25You also need vision, structure, architecture and ensure that there's a
- 1:03:31way to map that back to, you know, all your experiments, back to, to that and,
- 1:03:36and to create that culture that enables and when I say culture, I also mean
- 1:03:40incentives that enable that to happen.
- 1:03:42So I think, you know, that, that to me is, I mean what I capture
- 1:03:46from what we've just talked about,
- 1:03:47beautiful Howard, and what we described here, of course are the key principle.
- 1:03:53That organization will prosper in that future AI world.
- 1:03:57Now the listener may be like, oh my God, my company's so backwards.
- 1:04:00It's like, oh my God, I get stuck.
- 1:04:03I don't have the decision power, but in the end, we don't
- 1:04:06need to shoot for perfection.
- 1:04:08It's like you don't need to figure out 2030, the 10 capability critical.
- 1:04:12Mm-hmm.
- 1:04:12It really boils down to, in your local environment, maybe it's in brussel
- 1:04:17meeting this B2B client tomorrow, what kind of one thing you could do to start
- 1:04:24doing it differently that would allows you to build up that new skills so that
- 1:04:28you can perform and transform today?
- 1:04:30Again, nobody needs to become like Nvidia.
- 1:04:33You just need to, again, one inch ahead of your local competition,
- 1:04:37beating the same client so that your spiel would, you know, cutting across.
- 1:04:42And that little win allows you to compound the success.
- 1:04:46You would feel the joy of success, and that was snowball.
- 1:04:51And Alex.
- 1:04:52For me, it's all about back to business basics.
- 1:04:55So we get blinded by technology, you know, metaverse, ai, whatever.
- 1:04:59At the end of the day, it's a means to an end, and the business rules
- 1:05:04haven't actually changed ever.
- 1:05:06It's like, we need to create value for customers and we need to create value
- 1:05:09for our business, otherwise we're done.
- 1:05:11And then ideally, we start to add, like, how are we creating value for society?
- 1:05:15But just get the business basics right?
- 1:05:17And, and, and understand how your organization should be set up to explore
- 1:05:22how we create value for customers, for our business, for society.
- 1:05:27Then you can deal with any technology, right?
- 1:05:29Mm-hmm.
- 1:05:29So now AI is indeed a very powerful technology, but if you don't
- 1:05:33get those business basics right, you're not gonna get it right.
- 1:05:36So don't invest in the technology, invest in your organizational
- 1:05:40structure and capability first.
- 1:05:43To explore things that can work with
- 1:05:45you.
- 1:05:45Absolutely.
- 1:05:46So where can people find you?
- 1:05:48Gents, alex Strategyzer.com.
- 1:05:50Strategyzer with a z, right?
- 1:05:52Strategyzer.com.
- 1:05:53Howard one inch ahead.
- 1:05:55Substack
- 1:05:56and Sangeet platforms.
- 1:05:59The plural word platforms.substack.com.
- 1:06:02The singular brings you to Substack's platform, right, Substack.
- 1:06:05Yeah.
- 1:06:07And it's been an absolute pleasure having these gens.
- 1:06:09We've to get off to a black tie dinner.
- 1:06:11I need to shave my legs and the gents here, I, I have to
- 1:06:15get and get their tuxedos on.
- 1:06:17It's been an absolute pleasure.
- 1:06:18Thanks for joining us on the Innovation Show, Sangeet Paul Choudary, Howard Yu
- 1:06:22Alex Osterwalder, thanks for joining us.
- 1:06:24Thank you so much.
- 1:06:24Thank you so much.
- 1:06:25Great pleasure.
- 1:06:25This possible.
- 1:06:26Thank you.
- 1:06:27Thanks always to our sponsor, Kyndryl, who runs and reimagines the technology
- 1:06:31systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses with a
- 1:06:34unique blend of AI powered consulting.
- 1:06:37Built on unmatched managed service capability.
- 1:06:40Kyndryl helps leaders harness the power of technology for smarter
- 1:06:43decisions, faster innovation, and a lasting competitive edge.
- 1:06:47You can find Kyndryl at KYND or YL Kyndryl.com.