Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Consumer Outlook, Muni Bonds, And Virtual Conferences

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Consumer Outlook, Muni Bonds, And Virtual Conferences · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's bring in
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Every Sheffield, Managing Director and senior portfolio manager of long
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: short equity hedge fund Strategy at Rockefeller Asset Management. Avery's
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: great to have you back on the program again. I
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: just want to hit you first with the PPI data.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen, but a huge jump UM in
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: final demand year of Europe nine point six percent. Does
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: inflation concern you or do you think the Fed's gotta
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: handle on it? Yes? So I don't know. I mean
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: everything I say suggests that there's and we're nowhere near
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the end of inflation UM, both from the PPI prices
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and from the ability of any companies to pass on
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: inflation UM. It's really been significantly improved through UM through
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: their own analytical tools UM and and and and buying discipline.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So yes, that the pp. I think it's just one
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  Speaker 1: more indicator that inflation is likely to be around longer
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: than anticipated. And you know, I almost I feel like,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: no matter what the sent does, we're likely to see
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: this as a as a new norm. So if maybe
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a new norm here, UM, higher inflation,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: maybe not obviously where we are here at six seven,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: but certainly higher than where we were two for such
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a long period of time. How's the consumer faring with that?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: It seems like some of the retail numbers that we've
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  Speaker 1: seen out of the retailers in the earnings third quarter,
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  Speaker 1: we're pretty darn solid. There's some pretty good guidance for
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  Speaker 1: the holidays. What's your take of the consumer and the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: consumer space? Yes, so, UM, retailers have really been succeeding
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: for the most part in passing on this inflation UM.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: And so I mean that's one of the reasons that
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: that I feel positive, uh, you know, constructive about UM.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: The fact inflation is going to continue. UM. You know,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: you're certainly seeing some pressure in the lower income consumer
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: and next year as they you know, last stimulus benefits. UM.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: You know, I think people are gonna be very selective
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  Speaker 1: about about where they're spending. But from a from a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: from a kind of a company, from a stock perspective,
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  Speaker 1: those companies that have been able to pass on higher pricing,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I think are our places to look for investments next
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  Speaker 1: year UM, because those companies that have been able to
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: pass on higher pricing are those more likely to next year. UM.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: It means that consumers like their products, there's real demand
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: for them. UM. They have underappreciated some underappreciated pricing power.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: How do you think about oh, Macron, Paul and I've
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: been talking about the fact that what you see happen
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: in Europe, UM, the US typically follows, and we're hitting
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: a big wave or a big wave is hitting us
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: here in Europe. Now does that happen to the US later?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I actually don't see it because as we see so
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: much data coming in that that this variant is very mild,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: and so I think if that continues, UM, you know,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Europe is going to be kind of a a place
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: to see this play out first before the US has
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  Speaker 1: to act. I mean, certainly, if if if only com
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: becomes you know, much more of an issue in terms
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of UM hospitalizations in death, you might see some actions here.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: But if we continue to see it quite benign. I
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: was just reading something this morning about about some places
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: starting to reverse UM, even some of the travel band.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I think, you know, the U S could get through
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: this with with fewer freedoms like we're seeing. Definitely math
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  Speaker 1: mandates UM, but not necessarily much of an economic impact
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: every what's the uh, the status of the supply chain
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: issues as you take a look at some of the
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  Speaker 1: consumer companies out there. I mean, I'm looking at a
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: function here on a Bloomberg terminal, UH that lets me
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: it's a mapping function. Lets me see a bunch of
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: ships still docked off the ports of Los Angeles, still
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: docked off the ports of Savannah and New York and
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: so on. Is this something that we can expect to
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  Speaker 1: resolve over some period of time or is this again
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  Speaker 1: a little bit of a new normal here. Yes. And
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  Speaker 1: the companies we're speaking with UM, they don't anticipate this resolving,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: most of them until at least the second half of
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: next year UM. So they're planning for it. So they're
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: they're ordering earlier, UM, They're they're they're being much more
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: thoughtful about where they're sourcing from UM, and they're pricing
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: for it, So I think that this is likely to continue.
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  Speaker 1: UM at some point, right, it should fully resolve. I mean,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: just from a containership perspective, there are a lot of
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: new orders on hand going out a couple of years
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  Speaker 1: from now, so at some point there should be a
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: lot more simple highest containers UM. But of course it
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: has to do the logistics at the ports and and
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  Speaker 1: COVID is related to that. UM. You'd expect COVID to
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  Speaker 1: you know, to to resolve UM at some point in
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: in in the next you know, six to twelve months.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So I think we should start to see the baby.
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  Speaker 1: Some companies have actually just UM in the past couple
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: of weeks commented that they're seeing things loosen up a
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: little bit for them. But it's an overall dynamic. UM.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Everyone's planning for it and uh, and it looks like it,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: you know, it might not result for another six or
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: twelve months. How do you benchmark alongshore equity hedge fund strategy?
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, can you underperform big gains and at least
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: as long as you outperform years where their losses look.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think as an as an investor in
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: any entency is a fund of the stock UM, I
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be investing in funds that UM that that aren't
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: generating you know, real real returns. I know long short
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: equity as a category is really underperformed. But in that
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: category there are many funds UM that have actually done
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: very well and have preserved capital um during times by
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the COVID crisis, and actually done quite well in markets
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: like we've had, and really protect for the next downturn.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, from an individual, the market as
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: a whole is gonna marched higher. You're seeing tremendous bifurcation
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: underneath the surface, and a lot of companies UM stocks
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: down meaningfully in this in this uh, you know, even
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: in the past six months. And should you see something
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: spell whether's you know, start to turn a bit um,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the induscries themselves might might struggle. So look, I don't
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: know what's going to happen here. But the benefit of
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: you know, of a long short strategy that considers all
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: these things and has has proven to do well through
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: the past um uh is that you know, even if
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: it turned south, you can do well. But you know,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I would look at every individual strategy m independently. All right,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: every thanks so much for joining us every Sheffield, there's
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: an m D at Rockefeller Asset Management. Let's bring in
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Shaan Karney. Now he is the head of MUNI strategy
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: over at black Rock, and that means Paul is very excited. Sean,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: talk to me about how much does it matter if
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: we get this build back better bill past two munis?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Is it less important, um than than the infrastructure bill?
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  Speaker 1: Was It matters, um? But but I would say it's
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: not as important, um. You know. Some of the keys
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: that the MUNI market has looked at is investors are
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: anticipating higher taxes as a result of the build back
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: that are plan. If we just look at a simple
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: calculation of a market implied tax benefit, it shows, you know,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the market pricing for a fifty top marginal tax rate,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: which as you know, is significantly higher than this administration
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: has been has been talking. But I think that the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: bigger impact comes from the supply side of the equation,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: where things like Advanced were Funding bonds and Build America
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  Speaker 1: bonds were omitted from the from the final draft, which
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: ultimately would have been a catalyst for for greater supply
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: in the market. So it does matter, h and markets
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: are paying attention. So Sean in THEMMUNI market um again
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and I'm a big fan of the mini market, and
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the UNI bond returns have been very strong compared with
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  Speaker 1: other fixed income markets this year. What's behind that and
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: what's the outlook for That's a good question. So they
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: have been and a lot of people concentrate on the
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: gross returns. I think it's also important to look at
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  Speaker 1: excess returns. So you're to date, the investment grade UNI
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  Speaker 1: market is up about one and a half percent, but
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: in excess returns i e. When we duration match communities
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: to treasuries, unis are up three basis points, and excess
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  Speaker 1: returns when you compare that to a U S AGG
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: or corporate i G. That's down about one and a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: half percent. I think there are several factors that have
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: been driving this year's positive performance, and while I want
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: to say it can continue into twenty two, there's a
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: couple of things I think we need to pay attention to.
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  Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, higher taxes on the individual side would help.
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  Speaker 1: On the corporate side, it's still unclear the role that
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: banks and insurance companies will play. From the demand side.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: This year's outperformance has relative value measures I e. MUNI
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: treasury ratios screening a bit rich so sub fifty in
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  Speaker 1: the first five years of the curve and probably ten
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: ratio is rich out longer on the curve. So as
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: long as supplied demand dynamics remains skewed, positive munies will
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: hold in well. However, if that ratio goes a little sideways,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: we could see munities come under a bit of pressure.
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  Speaker 1: I think about the net positive months of March and
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  Speaker 1: April and September and October, which have a little bit
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  Speaker 1: less uh, you know, technical strength than others. And I'd
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: say the other thing to pay attention to is MUNI
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  Speaker 1: fundamentals support continued strong performance, as does the notion interest
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  Speaker 1: rates will rise in as munies tend to outperform in
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: a rising rate environment given their structure. Where are there places,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: um that are most advantageous to buy MUNI is still
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for a tax avoidance, there are you know,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: our the way that we've kind of been positioning portfolios,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: and you know, positioning going into twenty two, I'd say
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  Speaker 1: we're going into the year slightly long duration stand but
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: importantly maintaining a barbell yield curve strategy. So we prefer
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: lower rated investment grade bonds for instance, particularly in the
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: front end of the yield curve, as well as select
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: high yield credits. And we maintain a favorable view on
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: tax backed transportation, healthcare, and the education sectors. And the
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: economic recovery is positioned to continue with strong growth in
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: the tighter labor market in the coming year, you know,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: hence our our preference for for those you know, parts
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: of the market on the yield curve and across the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: credit spectrum. Sean, give us a sense just kind of
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: how fun flows have been into the MUNI space here.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't guessing listen, talk about higher taxation out there,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: people are more inngest in the muni's flows have been phenomenal.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Year to day, we've seen about eighty three billion come
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: into the market. We have three prints left, but we're
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: probably going to come in a shy of the record
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: of the year of two thousand nineteen that printed about
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: ninety four billion UM. It's been sensational. There's many different
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: ways that we can look at it. And we can
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: use MUB the largest MUNI e t f UH ticker
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: as as a way of looking at UM whether trades
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: that a discount or premium do as n a V.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately kind of what fast Money will tell you
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: about the future flows, and it's been very positive. It
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: remains very positive. We've been seeing you know, good inflows
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: from from all different types of accounts, so you know,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: one would believe that as performance continues, you know, we'll
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: see fund flows continue as well as we flip the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: calendar into into two. All Right, Seohn, thanks so much
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: for your time. We really appreciate you sharing your thoughts
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: here on the bond marker. Shaun Carney, head of Municipal
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Strategy at black Rock. I want to bring Shawn McCarthy.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: He's a CEO and co founder of Build America Mutual
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: talk about the municipal bond marketing we heard earlier today.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: We're chatting Shawn and how the good performance coming out
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: of the municipal bond market. I want to start with
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: who's buying these things? Give us a sense of who
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: are the buyers in municipal bond market, retail versus institutional.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: What's a typical buyer like out there? Well, thanks Upo
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: met for having me join you today. UM, and so
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the typical UH investor in the municipal bonds would be
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: somebody who plays that has in the high income tax bracket.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Do you think about the fact that the vast majority
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: of municipal bonds are tax exempt, that benefit really runs
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: to the individual who is purchasing those bonds, And so
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: you really think about municipal bonds generally as retail or
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: um investments in proxies of retail meaning funds institutional funds
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: that you can buy. So, um, do you have an
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: eye on the best places to invest right now? I
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: mean where if I want to avoid taxes and also
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: generate some returns, where do I go in this kind
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: of market? Well, so in the municipal bond market, I'd
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: say there's a couple of things that are happening. This
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: year will end up being about a four hundred and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: sixty billion dollar market, perhaps a little bit more than that,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: which is which is a record. We would anticipate that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: next year would be the same. Now, when you look
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: at what those opportunities are going to be, UM, I
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: think they're going to center around, uh, some of the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: things that have happened in Washington. So when the infrastructure
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: bill was passed, that's good and that it sort of
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: provides a resource for state and local governments to um
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: uh you know, finance and repair infrastructure that that they
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: have going forward. UM. One of the things that's interesting
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: about that that's Federal Infrastructure Bill is that really still
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: at the at the fundamental funding level for infrastructure. It's
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: done at the state and local government level. So that's
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: about of bonds that are issued for infrastructure are done
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: at state and local governments. So what we see happening
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: next year, it's going to be a fact that there'll
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: be funds that will be matched by the federal government
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: UH for statan local governments as they build out um
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: their infrastructure and repair the infrastructure that you know, this
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: is long overdue. So this we think is a pretty
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: exciting area. And I think that if investors are looking
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: to participate in that market, and that's going to be
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of opportunity next year to
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: do that. UM. Sean, I want to ask you about
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: just the whole E s G Green bond phenomena. We
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: see corporations looking for the designation of a of their
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: one of their issuance being a green bond or E
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: s G friendly bond. Is that a is that a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: thing in the municipal bondmark as well. You know, it's
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: it's actually a growing thing. So we've at the Build
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: American Mutual UM, we've been designating green star bonds or
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: green bonds UM as part of our underwriting process UM,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: you know, for four or five years now. And so
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: if you think about that market, this past year through
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the third quarter, over twelve billion dollars of municipal green
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: bonds were issued in the United States UM. UH. Part
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: of what we do is as a service is to
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: make that designation. So we've actually designated one and a
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: half billion dollars with the transactions through the third quarter
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: UM as green. And that's UH an important factor because
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I think there is an investor demand for not only
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: making smart investments, but doing well doing good for the
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: community at the same time. So green bonds really sort
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of if you think about it, they're there. The nature
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: of them is sort of to finance clean water, renewable energy,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: energy efficiency. And in Europe it's it's something that has
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: been really a part of their market for quite a while,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: but it's it's definitely a growing area in terms of
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: UM the US municipal market. Talk to the about what
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: you do at BAM. I mean you have a long
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: history on Wall Street at uh EF Hutton and Paining Weber.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Um you were chief operating officer to shared Guarantee until
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: you started BAM. In what what's the main crux of
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: your business? So um, UH build a back and mutual.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: BAM is a double A rated UH financial guarantee company. Basically,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: what we do is we put our guarantee arm initial bonds.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: That makes them double A in their own right. It's
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: a little like you co signing a student loan for
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: your children. UH. You hope they get a job and
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: you hope they tell, but UM, if they don't, where
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: they are standing by to make timely payment of principle
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: and interest when due. So why do people use us?
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Issuers use us because we are UH going to lower
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: their cost of funding and that that's pure and simple.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: So we're double A. We put our guarantee on that.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: It creates creator liquidity in the paper we provide on
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: our website for free credit profiles, which is a summer
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: every transaction that we underwrite, we looked at that every year, UH,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: and that creates value protection for the investor. It also
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: creates you know, sort of unparalleled transparency and sort of
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: unique to BAM um UH in the industry is that
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: we are a mutual insurance company, which means that our
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: stakeholders are the state local governments that take our insurance.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And that's important because what they want, what we want
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: is to be bigger and stronger and provide that guarantee
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: to the market in order to create greater liquidity, greater
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: security um UM investment portfolios that retail and institutional investors owned.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: All right, Seohan, We're also doing an informal poll on
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: your favorite college bar in the Washington, D C. Area.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: You're Georgetown grad. Where did you go? Well, you know,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: when when I was at Georgetown, UM the third Edition
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: was a very popular place, um uh and uh and
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I went to actually bartended a place called the Foundary UM.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm not objective. I thought the founder was pretty
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: terrific as well, very cool. All right, Hey, Sean, great
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: having on the program. Thanks so much for joining us.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Sean McCarthy, co founder and the CEO of Build America Mutual.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Speaking just from myself, I tend to get a lot
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: of value out of attending conferences, and my career spent
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: mostly to investor conferences. I found it a good way
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: to you know, meet with clients, talk to other folks,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: get some new ideas, see new companies, that kind of thing.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I even enjoyed the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas, which
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: is a couple hundred thousand tech geeks kind of getting
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: together every January. But of course the pandemics put the
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: kai bosh on the whole conference biz and we're doing
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: everything virtually. So let's see how this might develop going forward.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Ben Choulder, president of Notified, joins us UH. Notified provide
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: software for virtual events. Uh so Ben talked to us
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: about what your business has experienced during this pandemic. I
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: gotta think there's a lot of demand for what you
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: guys do at Notified. Oh my, so, first, thank you
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: for having me on the show. I'm a big fan. Um.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: But it is totally change or largest vertical and streaming
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: organizations actually moved right. So now it went from something
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: that was a great way to reach a global audience
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: or an extended audience to something that you had to
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: do in twenty so. You know, everyone used to say
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: that virtual events would eventually cannibalize physical events. It's not
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: virtual it's not virtual events that cannibalize physical events. The
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: world cannibalize physical events. So everyone in twenty had a
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: hop on board, and everyone in continued and now the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: trend is heading towards you know, hybrid, right, it's time
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to do both. Have bases in places and that's that
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: seems pretty clear. Ben. What you do it notified to
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: healthy industry. So we as an organization provide the platform
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: where the event tech platform, whether you're doing a physical
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: event and you wanted to manage the event, whether you're
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: doing a virtual event and wanted to have you know,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people attend sessions and breakouts and exhibits,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: or even if you're doing a hybrid, right, we were
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: doing hybrid pre COVID. It allows you to actually have
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: that physical audience and the virtual And you brought up
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: cs like c S last year when virtual and had
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: eighty thousand people attend. This year, they've decided or going
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: into twenty two, they decided to do it as a hybrid.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: And if you read the news, you know they've had
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: a fifteen thousand people register in the last two weeks.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: People are dying to attend, but they also know that
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: there will be such a demand for the virtual element
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: as well, So they're actually doing a true hybrid for
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: the first time. Alright, so cee s hybrid. We know
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: that as of this moment, Davos is going to be
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: live in Switzerland. That's another big one for global business folks.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: How about some of the other conferences, whether it's just
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: you know, a company wants to get their salesforce together,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: you know in some warm locale in Florida or the desert,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: or you know, an investment bank wants to have its
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: a conference with its investors. What are you hearing on
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: that front for We're hearing that it's going to be
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: a hybrid if they're gonna do both. They want to
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: have the interaction of being at the event, but they
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: also understand that organizations aren't going to be feel very comfortable,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and not all organizations can feel comfortable in the beginning
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: of twenty two sending everyone to a location plus individuals
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna feel comfortable. So they want to give them
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: a choice. So you got to allow the audience to
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: participate in multiple ways. I mean, there's great advantages of
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: it too. Rite It's it's cost effective, it's better for
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: the environment. It's great E s G. What they what
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: we all learned in twenty and twenty one is it
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: also allows you to expand your audience. So more and
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: more organizations are planning their s k oh. If you
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: can't attend in person, pretend in person, If you need
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: to attend remotely, pretend remotely. So I think it just
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: opens up the world for you to attend a conference,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: whether you're physical or virtual. So and frankly, the main
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: thing that Paul loves about going to the office is
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: it's basically a conference every day. Are I don't know
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: if you've been to our headquarters one Luxington Avenue, but
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: it's an incredible space and of course being there with
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: your co workers is really beneficial. The same as true
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: at Big Banks. We've heard all the CEOs tell us,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: is it possible to have a hybrid experience like that
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that works as well. It's possible to have a hybrid
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: experience to get people engage and delivering the content. But
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: nothing's going to take the place of when I'm in
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: your office or at a Bloomberg conference and being able
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: to walk up to someone and have a conversation. It's
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a different kind of engagement. They both very valuable, but
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: it's a different engagement. And I don't think there's any technologies.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: You know, the metaverse is not going to replace you
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: and I having a cup of coffee or a conversation together.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: So how would you characterize two in terms of physical conferences?
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Would it be levels or are we still well below
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: kind of where we were pre pandemic? Would you guess?
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: I think the quantity of events will be back to
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: pre COVID. I think the attendance level would be about less.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: But by making it virtual, you have a potential even
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: growing your audience. And if you do a really good
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: virtual event, it's gonna make people want to attend. I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: also think the biggest trend going into twenty two is
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: the seven three sixty five always on environment. The three
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: days of a conference is where you're gonna be there
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: meeting with everyone, But what about the fifty weeks the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: rest of the year, you know, the other days, the
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty other days of the year. How
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: are you going to interact and keep that content going
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: and engage yep, And it sounds uh. The word hybrid
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: seems to be working forward, not just work environment, but
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: also potentially for other parts of the economy as well,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: including live events. Ben Chowder, president of Notified, he's into
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: that virtual side of the business, giving us some good
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: color here talking to us about the whole conference biz.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Likely to be more of a hybrid offering in that
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: long term could be a good thing. And again consume
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: Electronics show in January, a couple hundred thousand people in Vegas,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Davos in Switzerland. They're back on. Thanks for listening to
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide Bloomberg
• 25:00
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