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Iran War Update Day 2 -- 3/1 | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

0:00
Speaker 1: M audio. Can you hear audio? Everything?
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Speaker 2: Uh? Everything good? I think you're good to go. All right, everybody,
0:18
Speaker 2: let's huns. I've last and individual show.
0:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, everybody.
0:38
Speaker 2: Welcome to your one book show on this Sunday, March one,
0:43
Speaker 2: March first, I hope everybody is having a a good weekend.
0:51
Speaker 2: I apologize the the adventures of.
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Speaker 3: You know tech while traveling the The.
1:00
Speaker 2: Adventures continue and they seem endless and it keeps going on. Anyway,
1:04
Speaker 2: we're live now and you were here. Hopefully everybody was
1:08
Speaker 2: on the original stream will join the stream soon. There
1:12
Speaker 2: were a lot more people originally, but they will come.
1:15
Speaker 2: They will come, they will discover the stream. But yes,
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Speaker 2: thank you, thank you all for joining me, and thank
1:21
Speaker 2: you for having patience with my travails with regards to this.
1:30
Speaker 2: All right, we are on day two of the war
1:33
Speaker 2: with you on. I want to give you an update
1:37
Speaker 2: today on what happened during the day.
1:39
Speaker 3: In the war itself, we were the targets success.
1:45
Speaker 2: And I want to talk about the major risks that
1:49
Speaker 2: now the war represents, the major risks for its successful
1:54
Speaker 2: completion and the only real the only real significant damage
2:01
Speaker 2: I think that the Radiants can do we'll talk about
2:03
Speaker 2: what that damage is and and and you know where
2:07
Speaker 2: it's going to happen, what to watch to see if
2:09
Speaker 2: it happens. But let's start with let's start with kind
2:12
Speaker 2: of the day and and and how it went. I mean,
2:19
Speaker 2: we'll start with the Israeli and American attacks on the
2:22
Speaker 2: Iran which are basically being NonStop since since yesterday morning,
2:28
Speaker 2: throughout the night, and throughout today. Flights air planes have
2:32
Speaker 2: been flying to Iran, bombing, coming back, refueling, taking off,
2:38
Speaker 2: and there's been a corridor of planes going from Israel
2:41
Speaker 2: to Iran, and I assume from the various military bases
2:45
Speaker 2: as well as from the aircraft carriers from the United States.
2:49
Speaker 2: The Israelis have primarily been targeting kind of regime regime headquarters,
2:59
Speaker 2: so things like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard headquarters has been flattened.
3:04
Speaker 2: It does not exist anymore. It has been completely and
3:07
Speaker 2: utterly destroyed that was in Tehran. But generally what has
3:15
Speaker 2: been targeted at being primarily kind of internal security forces
3:24
Speaker 2: within Iran. So what's we targeted is Iranian internal security apparatus,
3:32
Speaker 2: taking out all the different internal.
3:34
Speaker 3: Forces that would suppress.
3:36
Speaker 2: The Iranian people if they arose if they rose up
3:39
Speaker 2: against the regime. So these are the people who went
3:41
Speaker 2: down to the streets and killed the demonstrators. These are
3:46
Speaker 2: the forces that the Iranian regime counts on to protect
3:50
Speaker 2: its existence, to protect itself. And Israel has been systematically
3:55
Speaker 2: in all over Tehran, but I think in other cities
3:58
Speaker 2: as well, on Iran systematically killing and destroying their headquarters,
4:05
Speaker 2: their bases, killing as many operation operatives operatives as possible.
4:11
Speaker 2: And the strategy here is clear. I mean, it is
4:14
Speaker 2: now clear that the that the goal of this operation
4:18
Speaker 2: is regime change. I think Trump has made that clear
4:20
Speaker 2: that these really are made that clear. We'll get to
4:22
Speaker 2: Trump later, but so far it made that clear. The
4:26
Speaker 2: goal is regime change. And in order to secure regime change,
4:29
Speaker 2: what has to happen is you have to be able
4:32
Speaker 2: to you have to be able to secure the people,
4:38
Speaker 2: the opposition within Iran's ability to take over uh you know,
4:43
Speaker 2: regime facilities without getting killed and without getting massacred. In
4:47
Speaker 2: order to Israel is trying to make that possible, you know,
4:52
Speaker 2: trying to soften the regime's capabilities of defending itself against
5:02
Speaker 2: you know, people on the ground. At the end of
5:03
Speaker 2: the day, regime change happens on the ground. It does
5:06
Speaker 2: not happen in the air. Regime change does not happen.
5:09
Speaker 2: But you know, through an air force, somebody on the
5:12
Speaker 2: ground is going to have to engage in the regime change.
5:15
Speaker 2: And I think what the Israelis and Americans are hoping
5:19
Speaker 2: that the Uranian people will do that, combined with potentially
5:23
Speaker 2: hopefully elements within the Uranian military that will join them
5:28
Speaker 2: and overthrow. But to help secure that and to help
5:33
Speaker 2: make that as safe as possible, and to help make
5:36
Speaker 2: that as likely as possible, the Israelis are basically clearing
5:42
Speaker 2: out the internal security apparatus. They're killing as many as
5:46
Speaker 2: they can within that apparatus to make it as ineffective
5:50
Speaker 2: as possible.
5:52
Speaker 3: I think this is the right strategy. It makes complete sense.
5:54
Speaker 2: Now. This could only happen after Israeli Air Force in
5:59
Speaker 2: the American Air Force basically secured complete and utter air
6:04
Speaker 2: superiority over Iran, at least over central and western Iran.
6:09
Speaker 2: I don't think they're ventured too far east. That means
6:12
Speaker 2: they've taken out all their defense systems. They or at
6:17
Speaker 2: least all the major a defense systems. They're still I'm
6:20
Speaker 2: sure random interfair systems and shoulder held anti aircraft missiles
6:25
Speaker 2: that the Iranians might have. But the all the radars,
6:29
Speaker 2: all the big stuff, the dangerous stuff, they've taken out,
6:33
Speaker 2: and now planes stealth and otherwise can operate fairly freely
6:38
Speaker 2: above in Uranian airspace. And that's exactly what is happening.
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Speaker 2: There are planes zooming around Tehran and going after whatever
6:47
Speaker 2: basic targets they want. Uranians have no capabilities, no capacity
6:52
Speaker 2: to stop Israel in the United States from shooting at
6:55
Speaker 2: anything they want to shoot at.
6:58
Speaker 3: So that is that is without question a.
7:02
Speaker 2: Major achievement of day two. Uh, and it would it
7:08
Speaker 2: you know, it continues in a sense that what is
7:13
Speaker 2: happening here, let me just get this up and going, sorry, right,
7:23
Speaker 2: all right, we missed out on that. That's fine, yes,
7:29
Speaker 2: So so that these operations continue. And again a major
7:35
Speaker 2: achievement of day two, a complete operation control in the
7:37
Speaker 2: skies of eastern of western and in central Levon. The
7:44
Speaker 2: United States has been has also been busy. It has
7:47
Speaker 2: taken out a significant number of Uranian ships. Supposedly seven
7:52
Speaker 2: ships of the Iranian navy have been sunk or been attacked.
7:57
Speaker 2: It's not clear, you know, how many ships to go.
8:00
Speaker 2: I should have probably done the research before this, but
8:02
Speaker 2: I don't know how many ships the Ranians have and
8:03
Speaker 2: how many ships would have to be taken out. Still,
8:06
Speaker 2: one of the goals of the American military is basically
8:11
Speaker 2: to destroy the navy of the Iranians. Make it impossible
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Speaker 2: for them to mine the home wars straight and make
8:21
Speaker 2: it impossible for them to pasta ships. Now they can
8:25
Speaker 2: still launch missiles at those ships from the land, but to.
8:29
Speaker 3: Take away their navy navy capabilities.
8:32
Speaker 2: The Iranian navy is not huge and it is not
8:35
Speaker 2: particularly powerful. The Americans should have an easy time taking
8:39
Speaker 2: them out. It's a little surprising to me that their
8:42
Speaker 2: attacks on the navy have not been more robust and
8:45
Speaker 2: not being more focused and now more serious. The Iranian
8:50
Speaker 2: navy by this point in day two should be at
8:53
Speaker 2: the bottom of the Oman Sea or at the Gulf,
8:58
Speaker 2: or whatever they should they should be. They should be
9:00
Speaker 2: basically completely destroyed. They have no capabilities to defend themselves
9:03
Speaker 2: against the United States, against the air force. I understand
9:07
Speaker 2: that the US, for the first time ever in military operations,
9:11
Speaker 2: the US is using what are called suicide drones. These
9:15
Speaker 2: are one way drones you know, really, I think the
9:19
Speaker 2: Iranians actually invented these kind of drones and they have
9:23
Speaker 2: They have become super useful for the Russians fighting the Ukrainians.
9:29
Speaker 2: These are drones that basically hold explosives in them, and
9:32
Speaker 2: the whole idea is they crash into the target and explode,
9:36
Speaker 2: So they are one way drones. That's why they called
9:37
Speaker 2: suicide drones kamikazi drones. They don't come back, and the
9:43
Speaker 2: United States has now a these drones have been operationalized.
9:51
Speaker 2: They're actually the American drones are based on copies I believe,
9:57
Speaker 2: more advanced than most sophisticated, but based on the Iranian
10:00
Speaker 2: Shahad drone that the Russians are using in the Iranians
10:04
Speaker 2: are now using against various targets in the Middle East.
10:09
Speaker 2: So you know, the drones, the American drones are operational. Supposedly,
10:15
Speaker 2: some of the ships, some of the navy ships, the
10:18
Speaker 2: Iranian Navy ships that were attacked were attacked by these
10:21
Speaker 2: suicide drones. There was a story, I think I mentioned
10:24
Speaker 2: it yesterday about the US and Israeli accidentally not accidentally,
10:32
Speaker 2: basically shooting at a school where there were large numbers
10:37
Speaker 2: of casualties of school children, you know, a real tragedy
10:42
Speaker 2: and a horrific event. Well it turned out today interesting left,
10:47
Speaker 2: the Islamic Revolutionary got admitted this that it wasn't the Israelis,
10:51
Speaker 2: it wasn't Americans. It was actually a misfired ballistic missile
10:56
Speaker 2: dropped on the school and I think something like a
10:59
Speaker 2: hundred kids were killed. So it turned out that this
11:03
Speaker 2: was not an intelligence error, It was not a mistake
11:06
Speaker 2: on the part of the Americans of the Israelis.
11:08
Speaker 3: This was a error, you know, whatever you want to
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Speaker 3: call it.
11:15
Speaker 2: Bye by the Iranians, all right. Juan has been, of course,
11:22
Speaker 2: continue to launch the ballistic missiles and using these suicide drones.
11:27
Speaker 2: They've been launching missiles at Israel in small numbers, poor
11:31
Speaker 2: round and it is a little disappointing and a little
11:36
Speaker 2: bewildering that the Israeli defense system is not managing to
11:40
Speaker 2: knock down all of them. They're knocking down a vast majority,
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Speaker 2: ninety plus percent of them. But given that they're not
11:49
Speaker 2: overloaded with huge numbers of drones, it's surprising some of
11:52
Speaker 2: them are getting by them. And you know, maybe some
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Speaker 2: of these are what are called hypersonic and they're very
12:00
Speaker 2: difficult to shoot down anyway. One of them last night
12:04
Speaker 2: hit at home in Israeli, a town called bit Chamish.
12:08
Speaker 2: It hit the actual hit the area shelter. It hit
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Speaker 2: where the people were hiding, and it caused significant damage.
12:16
Speaker 2: These ballistic missiles are big, they have vast explosives and
12:22
Speaker 2: quite a few people were killed. So we've got significant casualties.
12:27
Speaker 2: I think last I saw eight killed and quite a
12:29
Speaker 2: few injured, and there might be quite a few people
12:34
Speaker 2: are that are still missing, so the casualty list is
12:40
Speaker 2: likely to increase over time. At the same time, the
12:46
Speaker 2: Iranians continue to bomb Bahrain. I saw a high rise
12:51
Speaker 2: building in Bahrain in flames. They continue to bomb Dubai,
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Speaker 2: including the luxury hotel in Dubai, the famous luxury hotels
13:01
Speaker 2: name I can't pronounce, but that was on fire. Quait
13:05
Speaker 2: Oman Oman which was there, you know, was which was
13:08
Speaker 2: the moderator in the negotiations, Kata, which is supposed to
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Speaker 2: Iran's ally, Saudi Arabia again more and and of course
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Speaker 2: Iraq and Jordan, and they were attacking everybody as part
13:22
Speaker 2: of this UH two missiles were even targeted at Cyprus.
13:27
Speaker 2: Cyprus is even further west than Israel, and Britain has
13:33
Speaker 2: significant forces in Cyprus. Cyprus holds a couple of British
13:40
Speaker 2: bases and as a consequence, Britain is now motivated and
13:46
Speaker 2: you know, to get involved. They also the Iranians also
13:50
Speaker 2: attacked a naval a naval compound of the French. The French.
13:57
Speaker 2: The French got attacked and they were of course running
14:00
Speaker 2: for their life. No I'm kidding, but the French got attacked.
14:04
Speaker 2: They had a naval base in the Gulf and in
14:08
Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf. And France is now deploying an aircraft carrier.
14:15
Speaker 2: It's one of the few countries in the world that
14:17
Speaker 2: has an aircraft carrier. It's deploying an aircraft carrier with
14:20
Speaker 2: its entourage with the other ships found the Baltic Sea
14:23
Speaker 2: to the eastern Mediterranean. Now, of course that's a long
14:26
Speaker 2: way and it's going to take a while until it
14:27
Speaker 2: gets there. So by the time the French enter the war,
14:30
Speaker 2: the war will probably be over. Typical French if you
14:34
Speaker 2: ask me.
14:35
Speaker 3: But it is.
14:40
Speaker 2: Interesting that the Iranians have managed to antagonize even even
14:46
Speaker 2: the European Union. Even the European Union now is coming
14:50
Speaker 2: out against Iran, so go figure. The Saudis basically said
14:56
Speaker 2: they will participate in the fight. Trump, I think earlier
15:01
Speaker 2: today said that he expects the Saudis to fight side
15:04
Speaker 2: by side with the Americans against Iran. So you might
15:07
Speaker 2: see the Saudi air force engaged in some kind of activity.
15:12
Speaker 2: They have a pretty advanced air force. They have American jets.
15:15
Speaker 2: They don't have f thirty fives, but they have sixteens
15:17
Speaker 2: at fifteens.
15:19
Speaker 3: You are also seeing.
15:21
Speaker 2: Of course, Jordan participate in at least knocking down the
15:24
Speaker 2: drones that are heading towards Israel. And I'm trying to
15:33
Speaker 2: think what else somebody's asking me if I think it's
15:36
Speaker 2: a real war. I don't know what you mean by that.
15:38
Speaker 2: If you want to ask a question, use the super chat.
15:41
Speaker 2: But yeah, bombs are falling. Do I think it's a
15:44
Speaker 2: real war? Are people dying? Stuff getting blown up? Absolutely?
15:50
Speaker 2: And if you want to question what a real war is,
15:53
Speaker 2: I would ask you how many wars you participated in.
15:56
Speaker 2: My guess is I have more than you. So I've
16:00
Speaker 2: seen real wars, being in real wars. This is a
16:02
Speaker 2: real war.
16:05
Speaker 3: So you're seeing.
16:07
Speaker 2: Uaw the Dubai basically the United Arab Emirates, which includes
16:12
Speaker 2: you Dubai. The United Arab Emirates has actually cut off
16:17
Speaker 2: diplomatic relationships with Iran. Supposedly, Iran has fired one hundred
16:21
Speaker 2: and fifty plus ballistic missiles towards the United Arab Emirates. Now,
16:27
Speaker 2: the United Arab Emirates has a pretty robust air defense system,
16:32
Speaker 2: supposedly second only to that of Israel in the Middle East,
16:36
Speaker 2: so it is knocked down. I think I saw the
16:40
Speaker 2: statistics something like ninety five percent of all the ballistic
16:42
Speaker 2: missiles heading towards it, but some have gotten through and
16:45
Speaker 2: done damage in the attacks on American basis in the
16:50
Speaker 2: Middle East, not clear exactly which ones, maybe maybe in Bakween,
16:54
Speaker 2: probably in Bakween, in the naval in the naval headquarters.
16:58
Speaker 2: The first American casualties have being an ounce three Americans
17:00
Speaker 2: were killed. I think five were injured in one of
17:04
Speaker 2: these attacks. They have not specified where exactly. Ballistic missiles
17:09
Speaker 2: will also fire towards the American aircraft carrier that is
17:13
Speaker 2: in the Gulf of Oman, but supposedly all the ballistic
17:19
Speaker 2: missiles were shut down and the aircraft carriers suffered no damage.
17:25
Speaker 2: Iran is sending many drones towards the American fleet. But
17:30
Speaker 2: the drones, relatively speaking, are much easier to shoot down.
17:34
Speaker 2: They are slower, they don't go into the above the atmosphere,
17:39
Speaker 2: so they're much easier to shoot down and to destroy. Again,
17:43
Speaker 2: no damage, no damage done, No damage done. Ballistic missiles
17:49
Speaker 2: have been shot towards this evening, towards Jerusalem, the West Bank,
17:55
Speaker 2: where Palestinians live, and indeed, you know some of the
17:59
Speaker 2: damage that you can see. I mean, these relistic missiles
18:01
Speaker 2: first are very big, huge explosive power, so if they land,
18:06
Speaker 2: they do a lot of damage. But one of the
18:08
Speaker 2: things that can happen is when they were intercepted, they
18:10
Speaker 2: bake apart, right, they bake up out in the sky,
18:14
Speaker 2: and the fragments are incredibly dangerous and they can be
18:17
Speaker 2: fairly big. And indeed, this evening, a fragment of a
18:21
Speaker 2: missile that had been shot down landed on a car
18:27
Speaker 2: I guess, on a van, and seven people. Seven people
18:31
Speaker 2: were injured, one critical in that car. So there's a
18:35
Speaker 2: lot of ways in which these missiles being sent towards
18:39
Speaker 2: Israel can do damage. But overall, the damage in Israel
18:45
Speaker 2: is minimal, and in particularly if you compare it to
18:48
Speaker 2: the damage that is being inflicted on the regime, on
18:53
Speaker 2: regime institutions, on regime players in Iran itself. Uh. Now,
19:00
Speaker 2: there all kinds of rumors, and you know, I'm just
19:04
Speaker 2: gonna tell you these things, but I'm going to tell
19:05
Speaker 2: you that this is there's a good probability this.
19:08
Speaker 3: Is not true.
19:09
Speaker 2: But you know, maybe in the next few hours this
19:11
Speaker 2: will be confirmed and it will be true. But there
19:13
Speaker 2: are reports that I just don't know if this is
19:16
Speaker 2: true or not. There reports that how many sons much Staba,
19:20
Speaker 2: who was supposed to be the heir apparent to how
19:23
Speaker 2: many was actually killed in the air strike that killed
19:27
Speaker 2: his father. Now again that would be huge given that
19:30
Speaker 2: he was the expected successor. Uh. The Iranians have announced
19:35
Speaker 2: that they will appoint a successor within days to Hominy. Well,
19:40
Speaker 2: that might be that met might be difficult. In the meantime,
19:44
Speaker 2: the Ranians have created a council including three people and uh, let.
19:51
Speaker 4: Me just see, I thought I had I had.
19:55
Speaker 2: The Yeah, they created a council of three people to
20:02
Speaker 2: run the country without a supreme leader, and that includes
20:08
Speaker 2: the head of the judiciary, It includes the head of
20:10
Speaker 2: one of the main councils and it it includes a
20:15
Speaker 2: cleric by the name of Ayatula Arafehair might be the
20:20
Speaker 2: guy to succeed Haramini. Again. There are stories in Israeli media, unconfirmed,
20:27
Speaker 2: but stories in Israeli media that he has now been killed,
20:31
Speaker 2: not in the same attack as yesterday, but in new attack.
20:34
Speaker 3: He has been killed.
20:35
Speaker 2: So now you've got two major Ayatula's gone. I assume
20:40
Speaker 2: this is going to be the patent Israel is going
20:42
Speaker 2: to try to follow. And that is the same what
20:45
Speaker 2: they did with Kribala, where they keep appointing new people
20:48
Speaker 2: to head up Chris Balan and they keep killing them.
20:51
Speaker 3: And the idea.
20:52
Speaker 2: Here is to make it a very very short lived
20:54
Speaker 2: job and a very very dangerous job to become the
20:59
Speaker 2: supreme leader of Iran Israel.
21:01
Speaker 3: As soon as an announcement is made, they will be killed.
21:05
Speaker 2: Hopefully that is true, and hopefully that will continue. I
21:09
Speaker 2: think it's a major h It will be a major
21:16
Speaker 2: hit on the Iranians if if Israel can continue to
21:20
Speaker 2: do uh to do that. Let's see what else I
21:26
Speaker 2: want to add. Yeah, this is this is a this
21:29
Speaker 2: is amazing sci fi type stuff.
21:33
Speaker 3: But true and verified.
21:34
Speaker 2: Now it turns out that Channel three ERIB, which is
21:39
Speaker 2: the state TV of the Islamic regime in Iran, was
21:43
Speaker 2: broadcasting regular programming, I mean special emergency programming, I guess,
21:48
Speaker 2: but it was hacked and for a period of time
21:52
Speaker 2: it was broadcasting messages from Natanyao and from Donald Trump
21:57
Speaker 2: to the Iranian nation uh Minteniel explicitly calling on people
22:02
Speaker 2: to overthrow the regime on Uranian television, on state Islamic
22:06
Speaker 2: regime television. I mean, you got to you gotta say,
22:10
Speaker 2: that's a beautiful thing. So that happened today as well,
22:15
Speaker 2: in addition to everything everything else. Let's see what else
22:20
Speaker 2: I wanna Let's see if I've covered other stuff. I
22:25
Speaker 2: want to get to Trump in a minute. Yeah, as
22:30
Speaker 2: I said, the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard has
22:32
Speaker 2: been destroyed completely. And yeah, two thousand targets have already
22:40
Speaker 2: well over two thousand targets have already been targeted, already
22:43
Speaker 2: been hit over.
22:45
Speaker 3: The last couple of days.
22:48
Speaker 2: And I mean that is that is about half of
22:52
Speaker 2: what Israel did in twelve twelve days in June. Right,
22:56
Speaker 2: So in two days they've done what they did before
22:58
Speaker 2: in twelve days. I mean, given that the Americans are
23:01
Speaker 2: helping I don't remember if I mentioned it yesterday, but
23:05
Speaker 2: B fifty two B two's actually participated in the bombing
23:10
Speaker 2: on the first day. They flew all the way from Missouri.
23:14
Speaker 2: The UK banned them for flying out of UK. They
23:16
Speaker 2: banned them for flying out of Diego Garcia, which is
23:19
Speaker 2: under UK control, so they had to fly from Missouri.
23:22
Speaker 2: They flew from Missouri all the way to Iran, refueling
23:26
Speaker 2: on the way, and they dropped two thousand pound bombs
23:30
Speaker 2: on ballistic missiles that were in deep bunkers that Israeli
23:35
Speaker 2: munitions would have a hard time reaching. So the B
23:39
Speaker 2: two is in play and is participating in bombing runs
23:44
Speaker 2: over Iran. We will see how often they use the
23:47
Speaker 2: B twos. My expectation is they will use them some
23:50
Speaker 2: more on strategic assets. They haven't really as far as
23:53
Speaker 2: we know. We don't really know, but as far as
23:55
Speaker 2: we know, they haven't really targeted the southern nuclear sites.
24:00
Speaker 2: They were probably used to BE twos to finish off
24:04
Speaker 2: some of those some of those. According to these numbers,
24:09
Speaker 2: five countries have shot down one thousand, four hundred Iranian
24:13
Speaker 2: missiles and drones one thousand, four hundred. The UAE has
24:18
Speaker 2: shot down is shut down one hundred and sixty five missiles,
24:23
Speaker 2: two ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and five hundred and
24:26
Speaker 2: forty one drones.
24:28
Speaker 3: They have suffered three casualties.
24:32
Speaker 2: Quait has shot down shot down ninety seven ballistic missiles
24:37
Speaker 2: and two in eighty three drones.
24:38
Speaker 3: And has one casualty.
24:40
Speaker 2: Katawa shot down sixty ballistic missiles twelve drones. Now, when
24:43
Speaker 2: I say Katas shut down, Quait shut down, Americans in
24:49
Speaker 2: those countries shot down the ballistic missiles. This is not
24:53
Speaker 2: local air defense systems. This is American air defense systems.
24:56
Speaker 2: Bahrain has shot down forty five missiles, one hundred and
24:58
Speaker 2: thirty six drones, and Jordan has shot down thirteen ballistic
25:03
Speaker 2: missiles and multiple drones.
25:05
Speaker 3: No numbers.
25:06
Speaker 2: So these numbers do not even include what Israel has done.
25:13
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, if you think about.
25:17
Speaker 2: It, if you have a decent air defense system, these
25:22
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles are incredibly ineffective when you have a decent
25:27
Speaker 2: defense system. And this really highlights the tragedy of what
25:31
Speaker 2: is going on in Ukraine where because they have not
25:34
Speaker 2: been supplied with adequate resources, a defense system resources, they
25:39
Speaker 2: are suffering multiple hits for these ballistic missiles and drones
25:44
Speaker 2: that are not necessary if they had a decent air force.
25:48
Speaker 2: They've been provided with the F sixteen's when they should
25:50
Speaker 2: have been provided.
25:51
Speaker 3: If they've been.
25:52
Speaker 2: Provided with enough a defense batteries to protect their major cities,
25:59
Speaker 2: the Russians would be having a much harder time with
26:04
Speaker 2: UH you know, with their attacks on Iran. The Iranians
26:11
Speaker 2: have been targeting airports in Kuwait, in Dubai, and in
26:15
Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia. The Saudis in particular are pretty furious about this.
26:18
Speaker 2: Now it turns out just an interesting background. It turns
26:22
Speaker 2: out that NBS, the leader of the Saudi Arabia, while
26:26
Speaker 2: publicly stating that he was against the strikes, it turns
26:30
Speaker 2: out that over the last month he has been constantly
26:34
Speaker 2: urging Trump to attack Iran. So privately it has been
26:39
Speaker 2: MBS as much as Natanyahu urging Trump to take out
26:43
Speaker 2: the Iranians. The Iranians Iran as a threat to Saudi Arabia.
26:46
Speaker 2: Will get to more of that in a minute. And
26:49
Speaker 2: and NBS has been very supportive of this attack in private,
26:55
Speaker 2: not in public. All right, let's see, okay, Dubai stock market,
27:03
Speaker 2: we'll get the stock markets in a minute, but du
27:05
Speaker 2: Buy stock market is going to be closed over the
27:07
Speaker 2: next two days, Monday and Tuesday. I'm not too surprised
27:11
Speaker 2: about that.
27:13
Speaker 3: And yeah, the.
27:16
Speaker 2: Airport in Iraq, Iraq, an ally of Iran, has been
27:21
Speaker 2: struck by a drone. So you know, one of the
27:25
Speaker 2: things the found Minister of Yuan said a few hours
27:27
Speaker 2: I take an hour ago was that to some extent,
27:32
Speaker 2: the Iranian central government has lost control over the Islamic
27:35
Speaker 2: Revolutionary God and many of the units of the Islamic
27:38
Speaker 2: Revolutionary God are you know, not in contact and basically
27:43
Speaker 2: acting independently, and some of these drone launchers, at least
27:46
Speaker 2: the Iranian governments claim we didn't do it. We don't
27:49
Speaker 2: know now whether you believe that or not. It's interesting
27:52
Speaker 2: that that they're trying to distance themselves from it. As
27:56
Speaker 2: I told you, Trump earlier said that the US are
27:59
Speaker 2: sunk nine aralien warships, including some significant, significantly sized warships,
28:08
Speaker 2: uh and and uh so on. All right, So that
28:14
Speaker 2: is I think an update of kind of the military
28:17
Speaker 2: side of what has happened is what has happened. You know.
28:22
Speaker 2: I want to add one more thing, that is, you know,
28:26
Speaker 2: partially military, but I think most strategic and then I
28:29
Speaker 2: want to talk about the politics and UH and when
28:33
Speaker 2: I think the real risk saw in this war and
28:36
Speaker 2: what what could prevent total victory or true regime change
28:41
Speaker 2: UH in Iran. I think I think we've done with that.
28:46
Speaker 2: I'm just looking through my stuff. You know, we've done
28:49
Speaker 2: with that, and this is going fine, this is good.
28:53
Speaker 3: Okay.
28:54
Speaker 2: So you know, the the the only real damage Iran
29:03
Speaker 2: can do, the only real damage Iran can do to
29:09
Speaker 2: the world really, you know, to to to anybody in
29:15
Speaker 2: the Middle East, not really to Israel, because they can't
29:17
Speaker 2: really do any damage to Israel beyond what the damage
29:19
Speaker 2: they're doing. They can't really damage America the United States directly.
29:24
Speaker 2: So the only damage they can really do, and this
29:26
Speaker 2: is in a sense they would do damage to themselves
29:28
Speaker 2: as much as they do to anybody else, is to
29:31
Speaker 2: basically shut down oil export out of the Gulf. They
29:36
Speaker 2: could close the Homo Straits, and indeed they have. As
29:39
Speaker 2: of this morning, the Homo Straits basically are closed. They
29:43
Speaker 2: attacked three ships trying to cross the Homo Straits. Most
29:46
Speaker 2: ships in the Persian Gulf have now sunk anchor and
29:51
Speaker 2: are waiting in place to see what happens, which means
29:55
Speaker 2: that Iraqi Quait Saudi Arabia caughta UAE. Oil cannot get out.
30:05
Speaker 2: And it's not just oil, it's natural gas, it's LNG.
30:08
Speaker 2: This is the main supply of oil and natural gas
30:12
Speaker 2: to places like China, but Asia more generally, including Japan.
30:19
Speaker 2: Some of the LNG goes to Europe. So this is
30:24
Speaker 2: a major blow to global oil and natural gas markets.
30:29
Speaker 2: Now there are some alternative roots that are going to
30:32
Speaker 2: be challenged in the next few days. There is a
30:34
Speaker 2: pipeline that goes from the Saudi oil fields to the
30:37
Speaker 2: Red Sea west to the other side. It's a long pipeline,
30:42
Speaker 2: but it is robust and it is being expanded, so
30:46
Speaker 2: the Saudis can pump a lot of oil to the west,
30:49
Speaker 2: out of Iran's reach and loaded up onto tankers in
30:55
Speaker 2: the Red Sea. The UE has a similar pipelin that
31:00
Speaker 2: goes down south to the Gulf of Oman, again somewhat
31:04
Speaker 2: out of reach of the Iranians and certainly not affected
31:08
Speaker 2: by closing of the straits. The Kuwaitis theoretically could restart
31:14
Speaker 2: a pipeline that they have that goes to Turkey. This
31:18
Speaker 2: would be difficult and they're not really prepared. The Rockies
31:21
Speaker 2: are kind of stuck. And maybe rock also has the
31:25
Speaker 2: potential maybe for pipeline with Turkey, maybe there's some pipelines there,
31:29
Speaker 2: but many of their oil fields in the South, and
31:32
Speaker 2: those would rely completely on ships loading up in the
31:37
Speaker 2: Gulf and taking it taking it out KATA. Natural gas
31:41
Speaker 2: is mostly done by LNG. So oil is going to
31:46
Speaker 2: be disrupted. Natural gas is going to be disrupted. Tomorrow morning,
31:52
Speaker 2: you will see the stock markets and oil markets and
31:56
Speaker 2: generally financial markets opening and oil is likely to have
32:01
Speaker 2: spiked dramatically up. Uh and and this will this will
32:07
Speaker 2: raise costs for people in the United States. UH. This
32:11
Speaker 2: is going to obviously disrupt many industries. Now, what will
32:17
Speaker 2: actually happen is over the next days and weeks American
32:24
Speaker 2: oil fields will increase the amount of oil that they
32:27
Speaker 2: pump out. That is, they will take.
32:29
Speaker 3: Advantage of the higher oil prices.
32:31
Speaker 2: This is the beauty of markets, right when when when
32:34
Speaker 2: supply is constraint in one place and prices go up,
32:37
Speaker 2: there's a massive incentive for everybody else to pump out
32:41
Speaker 2: more oil. And that is probably what will happen in
32:43
Speaker 2: the United States. And it there's some flexibility in increasing oil.
32:47
Speaker 2: So ultimately, long term I think, I think well long term,
32:50
Speaker 2: I think all prices will go down a lot if
32:52
Speaker 2: you run is liberated. But even in a short run,
32:56
Speaker 2: if you measure a short run in weeks, you will
32:58
Speaker 2: probably see or prices come down off of the peaks
33:01
Speaker 2: that they achieve tomorrow because the rest of the world
33:04
Speaker 2: will pump up more oil in know, to compensate for
33:08
Speaker 2: the lack of oil coming out of the Middle East.
33:10
Speaker 2: But it's a lot of oil. Let's not mistake this.
33:13
Speaker 2: This means that all prices are going to shoot up.
33:16
Speaker 2: And if this war, if the Golf, if the Gulf
33:19
Speaker 2: is blocked, if the states of Homos are really closed,
33:22
Speaker 2: you could see a bowl of oil go above one hundred,
33:25
Speaker 2: which it hasn't been for a very long time. US
33:28
Speaker 2: As of course strategic oil reserves, it could open those up.
33:33
Speaker 2: But really what the United States mainly is going to
33:36
Speaker 2: see is people people pumping more oil out of wells
33:40
Speaker 2: that exist, and wells that might be marginal to run
33:45
Speaker 2: them at sixty dollars a barrel are very profitable. Suddenly
33:47
Speaker 2: at one hundred dollars a barrel, and people will will
33:51
Speaker 2: pump out more oil. So of course This is the
33:54
Speaker 2: one days I've been pointing out for a while now
33:57
Speaker 2: that the Ranian's one piece of leverage. Now the United
34:00
Speaker 2: States can destroy the Iranian navy. If the United States
34:03
Speaker 2: can in a sense blank blanket bomb everything on the
34:09
Speaker 2: coast that can reach these ships crossing the Straits of Homos,
34:14
Speaker 2: maybe it can guarantee the ships can move out, and
34:18
Speaker 2: and and and can can actually relieve the bottlenick. We
34:21
Speaker 2: will see if the United States has a plan, if
34:24
Speaker 2: the military is I assume they've planned for the blocking
34:27
Speaker 2: in the Homost straits. I've assumed this was in the playbook.
34:31
Speaker 2: I think the US military is incredibly competent. I don't
34:35
Speaker 2: think Trump is, but I think that and and the U.
34:37
Speaker 2: S Military is incredibly strategic and thinking thinking about these things. Again,
34:42
Speaker 2: I don't think Trump is strategical thinking about these things.
34:45
Speaker 2: So I do think that that the US will try
34:52
Speaker 2: to open up that block, and I assume they have
34:55
Speaker 2: a plan to do it. But it's hard, right because
34:58
Speaker 2: the straits are narrow. You could have very small mobile
35:02
Speaker 2: units that are shooting missiles, short range missiles that are
35:06
Speaker 2: very difficult to intercept from trucks, maybe even shoulders. I
35:12
Speaker 2: don't know about soil many trucks, and it's going to
35:14
Speaker 2: be very hard.
35:15
Speaker 3: To stop all of that.
35:16
Speaker 2: But hopefully they can do enough to get the ships
35:20
Speaker 2: to raise anchor and start moving in. But here's the
35:24
Speaker 2: other thing the Ranians can do, and I'm somewhat surprised
35:27
Speaker 2: they haven't done it, given that they've attacked Riyad, and
35:30
Speaker 2: they've attacked Doha, and they've attacked Dubai. They could start
35:36
Speaker 2: launching suicide drones and ballistic missiles at the oil fields,
35:43
Speaker 2: at the refining refiners. Now, I think they might be
35:48
Speaker 2: afraid of what the Saudis would actually do if they
35:52
Speaker 2: did that, but they could. The Ranians could launch drones
35:57
Speaker 2: and launch ballistic missiles into the refiners, into the oil fields. Now. Also,
36:05
Speaker 2: it's worth noting right that the oil fields in Saudi
36:10
Speaker 2: Arabia and most of these refineries actually in the areas
36:15
Speaker 2: of Saudi Arabia that have majority Shiite populations, that is,
36:20
Speaker 2: populations that might be sympathetic to the Iranians and do
36:24
Speaker 2: not like the Sunni rulers who've treated them a second
36:28
Speaker 2: class citizens in Saudi Arabia. So you might see some sabotage,
36:34
Speaker 2: you might see some other ways in which the Iranians
36:38
Speaker 2: try to harm the oil facilities of the Saudis, the Katawis,
36:46
Speaker 2: but maybe it's Saudis and the United Arab Emerits. We
36:50
Speaker 2: will see. If that happens again, this will really spur
36:53
Speaker 2: the Saudis to get involved. This will really cause them
36:57
Speaker 2: to you know, to lash out at the Ranians, and
37:00
Speaker 2: maybe the Ranians don't want that to happen. If they're sabotage,
37:04
Speaker 2: it will cause the Saudi authorities to clamp down really
37:08
Speaker 2: really tight on the sites in Saudi Arabia. So we
37:15
Speaker 2: will see. But the biggest risk we face of this war.
37:19
Speaker 2: There's no risk of Iran doing damage to the United States.
37:22
Speaker 2: There's no risk of Iran doing damage to Israel. The
37:25
Speaker 2: real risk of this war is damage to oil, oil fields,
37:31
Speaker 2: oil assets, or the refineries, oil depots where you load
37:36
Speaker 2: them up, LNG depots, things like that. It could take
37:40
Speaker 2: a while to rebuild and get going, and that causes
37:44
Speaker 2: damage to global economy.
37:46
Speaker 3: That can cause.
37:46
Speaker 2: Damage to the stock market, cause damage to American companies,
37:50
Speaker 2: cause damage to American consumers. And that of course brings
37:53
Speaker 2: us to the number one I think threat to the
37:58
Speaker 2: success of this war, and one that the success of
38:01
Speaker 2: this war is Trump. Trump doesn't it doesn't really know
38:08
Speaker 2: what he's doing, right, so he doesn't really care about
38:11
Speaker 2: bringing let's say, changing the regime in Iran. What he wants,
38:16
Speaker 2: somebody can kind of deal with. And you could imagine
38:21
Speaker 2: a mula coming forward and offering him oil and offering
38:24
Speaker 2: him other things that how many wouldn't do it, but
38:29
Speaker 2: there might be somebody, quote more moderate who would. Indeed,
38:33
Speaker 2: earlier today Trump said that this new council that's ruling
38:37
Speaker 2: Iran contacted him and asked to open up reopen the negotiations,
38:42
Speaker 2: and he has agreed to.
38:43
Speaker 3: Talk with him. The biggest risk here is.
38:48
Speaker 2: That Trump gets impatient. The Trump sees the stock market
38:53
Speaker 2: go down, all prices go up, and panics and does
38:57
Speaker 2: what he did with tariffs, changes his mind on the
39:00
Speaker 2: dime and withdraws from the war. If the Saudi gets
39:06
Speaker 2: Saudi Rabi gets it's all filled attacks, they could put
39:09
Speaker 2: pressure on Trump to stop the war, though I actually
39:11
Speaker 2: doubt that.
39:12
Speaker 3: I think NBS is really committed to this.
39:17
Speaker 2: Anyway.
39:17
Speaker 3: It's it's really Trump, which is the wild card.
39:20
Speaker 2: You know, when we get to the point where the
39:22
Speaker 2: Iranians are going to be engaged in replacing this regime.
39:28
Speaker 2: Will Trump go for some kind of military dictator, a
39:32
Speaker 2: moderate Islamic revolutionary god general. Well, he doesn't. He has
39:38
Speaker 2: not expressed any support for the son of the Shah.
39:43
Speaker 2: Who would he support to a place the current people.
39:48
Speaker 2: I don't think freedom is anything he cares about, so
39:51
Speaker 2: I don't think that's on his agenda. So the endgame
39:55
Speaker 2: here is dangerous right now. This is absolut a real risk.
40:01
Speaker 2: But let me let me give you a spin on this. Then,
40:09
Speaker 2: in spite of that, I think it is a huge
40:10
Speaker 2: risk and it's terrible. But even if it happened, Look,
40:16
Speaker 2: it's something going to happen immediately. The Israelis and Americans
40:23
Speaker 2: really decimating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the military, the leadership.
40:32
Speaker 2: They're causing unbelievable damage to the navy, and of course
40:37
Speaker 2: Iran doesn't have an air force any kind of meaningful
40:40
Speaker 2: fors to the extent that they have. I think the
40:43
Speaker 2: israel showed some photos of them destroying an F five,
40:46
Speaker 2: and F five is an old phantom. These were planes
40:48
Speaker 2: that America flew in Vietnam and would delivered to the
40:52
Speaker 2: Iranians when the show was still around.
40:54
Speaker 3: So these are fifty year old planes.
40:56
Speaker 2: Israel destroyed some of them on the ground that were
40:58
Speaker 2: about about to take cough, So massive damage of being
41:04
Speaker 2: is going to be inflicted in the Iranians. From the
41:09
Speaker 2: perspective of Israel, Israel's going to be a lot safer
41:11
Speaker 2: no matter what happens here. And one thing I think
41:15
Speaker 2: is going to be guaranteed. You know, Trump will probably
41:18
Speaker 2: not cut a deal with anybody without having a really
41:21
Speaker 2: tough deal on the nuclear stuff. So the nuclear threat
41:25
Speaker 2: will probably be taking completely off the table at least
41:27
Speaker 2: for a couple of decades. So I think the world
41:30
Speaker 2: is safer. Even if this doesn't last as long as
41:35
Speaker 2: I would like, Even if the regime change is not
41:40
Speaker 2: as thorough and as good as I would like, the
41:44
Speaker 2: world is going to be safe at least in a
41:45
Speaker 2: short run. In the long run, yeah, but who knows
41:49
Speaker 2: what happens in the long run. It's in the in
41:52
Speaker 2: the kind of world that we live in, it's very
41:54
Speaker 2: hard of plan for the very long run.
41:56
Speaker 3: But there's no question.
42:00
Speaker 2: That that what is role in the United States are
42:02
Speaker 2: doing kind of on a daily basis is devastating to
42:06
Speaker 2: the Ranians and is making the world a safer place,
42:10
Speaker 2: making America safer, making Israel safer at least in the
42:14
Speaker 2: in the in the shorter medium term.
42:19
Speaker 4: Uh, let's see, what did I want to say?
42:24
Speaker 2: So again, biggest to that, biggest to that is Trump,
42:29
Speaker 2: if Trump has the patience. Now, he did go on
42:32
Speaker 2: the Daily Mail, I guess this evening say that he
42:36
Speaker 2: thought this operation would last four weeks maybe less, and
42:40
Speaker 2: that he was committed to regime change. And he said
42:42
Speaker 2: all the right things. In spite of the fact that
42:44
Speaker 2: earlier today he said something about negotiating with the count,
42:47
Speaker 2: with the count leaders of you on, it doesn't seem
42:50
Speaker 2: like he's really taking that seriously. As part of that
42:56
Speaker 2: risk that tomorrow when the stock market opens, it opens
42:59
Speaker 2: sharply down.
43:00
Speaker 3: Oil is sharply up. That put pressures on Trump.
43:03
Speaker 2: The other part of this, which is upsetting and worrisome
43:09
Speaker 2: is the fact that this warn Iran is very unpopular
43:11
Speaker 2: among Americans. Indeed, in the first major poll since the
43:16
Speaker 2: strike started, show that twenty seven percent of Americans approve,
43:21
Speaker 2: only twenty seven percent, forty three percent disapprove, and I
43:27
Speaker 2: guess thirty don't have an opinion.
43:31
Speaker 3: So this is this is really bad.
43:35
Speaker 2: This is really bad. Even among Republicans, support is only
43:41
Speaker 2: a fifty five percent.
43:44
Speaker 3: So if the public doesn't support this, and the stock.
43:49
Speaker 2: Market is going down and oil is going through the roof,
43:53
Speaker 2: I affordability becomes a problem, right, the so called affordability crisis,
43:58
Speaker 2: non crisis that could put real passion on Trump. And
44:03
Speaker 2: Trump is susceptible to exactly this kind of passion, and
44:06
Speaker 2: and I think he might fold. I don't think Israel folds.
44:09
Speaker 2: I think Israel is really committed to doing this long term,
44:13
Speaker 2: and I think it'll it'll do this for weeks. I'll
44:16
Speaker 2: you know, I I don't know how many missiles Israel has,
44:19
Speaker 2: I how how long it can sustain this level, Probably
44:22
Speaker 2: not for very long, now, for more than a couple
44:25
Speaker 2: of weeks. But I think they're ready to do it.
44:27
Speaker 2: And and hopefully again as part of the prep for this,
44:31
Speaker 2: U American missile production is accelerated, and if Israel produces
44:36
Speaker 2: any of this missiles, hopefully they are increasing production and
44:39
Speaker 2: that they can.
44:40
Speaker 3: Keep up the pace.
44:41
Speaker 2: So let's hope that this is indeed a three to
44:43
Speaker 2: four week operation, that uh, this does enough to weaken
44:47
Speaker 2: the regime and we can everything around uh the regime
44:51
Speaker 2: and it's fighting forces to the point to the point
44:56
Speaker 2: where you actually do get regime change. All right, I wanna,
45:02
Speaker 2: I wanna say something about you know, we've talked about
45:05
Speaker 2: some of the geopolitical consequences of this. One's Visa vi Islam.
45:09
Speaker 2: We'll talk about that in a minute as well, but
45:11
Speaker 2: also Visaly China. But there's also an aspect geopolitical important
45:16
Speaker 2: aspect here visa v.
45:17
Speaker 3: Russia.
45:18
Speaker 2: As I said, Iran is a is a major ally
45:21
Speaker 2: of the Russians, And indeed Russian and Iran have some
45:23
Speaker 2: kind of mutual assistant in events of a threat to sovereignty.
45:27
Speaker 3: There is a there's a deal they were signed.
45:30
Speaker 2: And indeed, Uh, when the first bombs fell on Tehran yesterday,
45:36
Speaker 2: Iran contacted Moscow and they asked for help, asked for
45:39
Speaker 2: all kinds of help, you know, sending troops was the
45:43
Speaker 2: first ass No. The Russian said, uh, we need more equipment. No,
45:48
Speaker 2: the Russian said, we need you to you know, you've
45:51
Speaker 2: got troops in Syria. Still, we need you, We need
45:54
Speaker 2: them to help us identify Israeli planes on their way.
45:58
Speaker 3: And the Russian said no.
46:01
Speaker 2: Basically, Russia has completely abandoned Uh Tehran. Uh, it does
46:06
Speaker 2: not wanna get involved now. I the the the the
46:08
Speaker 2: A number of reasons for this. One is Russia's resources
46:13
Speaker 2: are depleted are depleted. I they using it all in Ukraine.
46:17
Speaker 2: They have nothing to spare. And this is a good
46:21
Speaker 2: example of that. Russia's global presence is zilch gone, not
46:26
Speaker 2: uh doesn't exist. Before the war in Ukraine, they had
46:29
Speaker 2: a presence in the Middle East. In Syria, that a
46:31
Speaker 2: presence in Tehran, I in in Iran, they had a
46:34
Speaker 2: presence all over Africa that has been diminished dramatically. Russia
46:39
Speaker 2: is not a global force anymore. I I. It's managed
46:42
Speaker 2: to get hundreds of thousands of its young people killed
46:45
Speaker 2: in in in Ukraine and and about a million of
46:48
Speaker 2: them maimed injured in Ukraine. And it its tanks are gone,
46:53
Speaker 2: its missiles are gone. It just doesn't have the resources
46:57
Speaker 2: beyond what it's exluding in Ukraine to help anybody that
47:00
Speaker 2: has geopolitical significance. It means Russia is really, really, really weak.
47:08
Speaker 2: A little bit of help for the Ukrainians could tip this,
47:10
Speaker 2: really tip this. Now, note that other countries are watching this,
47:18
Speaker 2: Other countries are watching other countries that are bought Chines
47:21
Speaker 2: er Russian weapons systems. They're not gonna buy Russian weapons systems.
47:24
Speaker 2: Not only did the weapon systems not work very well,
47:28
Speaker 2: but then they get no supports, they get no backup.
47:31
Speaker 2: And even though when Russia promises to come to people's aid,
47:35
Speaker 2: they don't. In the end, I think North Korea is
47:40
Speaker 2: paying attention. I think Beijing is paying attention. Russia is
47:47
Speaker 2: not a reliable ally. It's a weakling. That's a good
47:53
Speaker 2: it's a good reveal, I'd say for the world.
48:00
Speaker 3: All right.
48:01
Speaker 2: To illustrate this further, we get a post today in Russian,
48:07
Speaker 2: not in English, this time from you know, Russia's chief philosopher,
48:14
Speaker 2: the guy called Putin's Mind, Alexander Dugen. This is Alexander
48:20
Speaker 2: Dugan's post today. He says, if real patriotic reforms do
48:26
Speaker 2: not start in Russia now, the situation will become simply unpredictable.
48:32
Speaker 2: Our allies are being systematically destroyed one by one. It
48:37
Speaker 2: is clear who is next, and it is clear what
48:40
Speaker 2: negotiations with such an enemy mean. I believe that the
48:44
Speaker 2: strategy of creating an image that everything is fine in
48:47
Speaker 2: Russia and that peaceful life is going on as usual
48:50
Speaker 2: has exhausted itself. We are next in a global sense.
48:57
Speaker 2: Everything depends on how long the Islamic revolutionary god.
49:00
Speaker 3: Corpse holds out.
49:02
Speaker 2: If he on holds, everything can go in the opposite direction.
49:07
Speaker 2: If it collapses, we are next.
49:12
Speaker 3: That's great.
49:14
Speaker 2: I mean, anytime you get Dugan shivering in his boots,
49:17
Speaker 2: worried about Russia's collapse, you know, being afraid of the
49:23
Speaker 2: Americans and israelis, I guess that is good news. That
49:27
Speaker 2: is absolutely good news. So yes, I mean, what we're
49:30
Speaker 2: doing in you on is having repercussions in Russia, and
49:33
Speaker 2: one can only imagine, one can only imagine reflect on
49:38
Speaker 2: what is going on in China and what she is thinking.
49:41
Speaker 2: What is generals are thinking as they watch Israel and America.
49:46
Speaker 2: Israeli an American technology just basically eviscerate the Iranians and
49:52
Speaker 2: make them an insignificant force. And you know, the Russians
49:57
Speaker 2: have to be thinking, can we take on Americans? Can
50:00
Speaker 2: we challenge them? Is there anything we can do? And
50:07
Speaker 2: do we want it? Do we want to even try?
50:09
Speaker 2: And add to that the element that they talked about yesterday,
50:12
Speaker 2: which is the fact that if you get regime change
50:15
Speaker 2: in Iran, any kind of regime change that is friendly
50:18
Speaker 2: now to America. Imagine a regime change in Iran that
50:21
Speaker 2: is friendly to America, whether the liberal democracy or whether
50:25
Speaker 2: some kind of authoritarianism, whatever it happens to be, but
50:27
Speaker 2: friendly to America.
50:29
Speaker 3: And therefore, under the sway, America will.
50:32
Speaker 2: Be a big player in its oil market now that
50:38
Speaker 2: Venezuela is under American sway. As I said yesterday, where
50:42
Speaker 2: does China gets its oil? If there's a crisis, who
50:45
Speaker 2: sells China oil? If there's a war in Taiwan. If
50:50
Speaker 2: America tells all its allies, including its allies in the
50:52
Speaker 2: Middle East, do not sell oil to China, what happens.
50:58
Speaker 2: China had the safeguard basically of Iran and of Venezuela.
51:05
Speaker 3: That is gone. That is gone.
51:10
Speaker 2: So this is again, this is an important consideration. I
51:18
Speaker 2: think this is the kind of the if you will
51:20
Speaker 2: unintended I assume unintended consequences of this war. It's unintended
51:25
Speaker 2: consequences of what happens when you actually have strong, a
51:32
Speaker 2: strong pound policy that actually goes after the bad guys.
51:35
Speaker 2: Now again, Trump could ruin us all easily, but so
51:40
Speaker 2: far he says that the bombing will continue throughout the
51:43
Speaker 2: week or as long as necessary, right, and he mentioned
51:49
Speaker 2: four weeks to the one press outlet. The omanis still
51:55
Speaker 2: as saying a diplomatic door is open and diplomacy could succeed.
52:00
Speaker 2: But I don't think anybody at this point believes them.
52:02
Speaker 2: And in particular, i'd say in particular now, given that,
52:10
Speaker 2: given that the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have now
52:13
Speaker 2: been antagonized against Iran, there's going to be a little
52:16
Speaker 2: pressure from that area on Trump to go back to
52:20
Speaker 2: the negotiating table. A story just broke, I guess twenty
52:24
Speaker 2: minutes ago that France, Germany and the UK are considering
52:29
Speaker 2: using the air forces to strike Iranian launchers. That would
52:33
Speaker 2: be huge. Why not increase the number of planes that
52:36
Speaker 2: are flying, Increase the number of bombs that can be dropped.
52:40
Speaker 2: And you know, if you can get rid of the
52:42
Speaker 2: ballistic missile threat of the Iranians, if you can annihilate
52:44
Speaker 2: the ballistic missile program. They have two thousand missiles they've
52:48
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know how many they've launched already,
52:52
Speaker 2: but many, right, maybe one thousand, maybe fourteen hundred. At
52:56
Speaker 2: some point they're going.
52:57
Speaker 3: To be depleted. Here.
52:58
Speaker 2: If we can have you know, the world's free countries
53:03
Speaker 2: launching if their attacks on the launches. Now Israel in
53:07
Speaker 2: the United States is going to do are going to
53:08
Speaker 2: do most of the work, but all the help, you know,
53:12
Speaker 2: go fit. It's it's it's all good if we get
53:15
Speaker 2: that help. And remember these are all countries the denounced
53:19
Speaker 2: the attack when it began, but now that Iran is
53:21
Speaker 2: kind of shooting at everybody, they they want to participate.
53:27
Speaker 2: The Israeli a military chief of staff, Yel Zamil, said
53:31
Speaker 2: that many more days of combat lay ahead uh and
53:36
Speaker 2: patients and resilience are required again Israel. The main challenge
53:40
Speaker 2: in Israel is the ballistic missiles and running to the
53:44
Speaker 2: air shelters constantly. You know, my sister's attitude, I think
53:49
Speaker 2: is the attitude of many people in Israel. She we
53:53
Speaker 2: were whatsapping yesterday and she said, this is horrible. It's
53:57
Speaker 2: it's ruptive, it's it's it's dangerous, and it's scary, but
54:02
Speaker 2: it's necessary.
54:04
Speaker 3: This has to happen.
54:05
Speaker 2: And I think israelis completely understand that this has to
54:08
Speaker 2: happen and willing to take the hit to their lives.
54:11
Speaker 2: They're willing to They're willing to, you know, to face
54:16
Speaker 2: the risks involved because they know the extent of which
54:24
Speaker 2: this indeed is necessary. All right, I think that is
54:30
Speaker 2: my update. I want to mention two other news stories,
54:34
Speaker 2: two other news stories before I go to your questions,
54:37
Speaker 2: and I see we have we have a few. I'm
54:41
Speaker 2: looking for more twenty and fifty dollars questions, one hundred
54:44
Speaker 2: dollars questions, anything like that. We're still quite short on
54:48
Speaker 2: their amount of money raised for the for the first hour. Remember,
54:54
Speaker 2: my time is money, you know, and you're basically pay
55:00
Speaker 2: me to do these And if you value these updates
55:04
Speaker 2: while I'm traveling, when I'm at home and everything, then
55:07
Speaker 2: please show your support through the super Chat. By the way,
55:09
Speaker 2: tomorrow the show will be early in the day for
55:14
Speaker 2: you Americans, because I've got to talk at seven pm.
55:18
Speaker 2: I've got a train to catch at four pm, so
55:20
Speaker 2: I might do a show when it's early morning on
55:23
Speaker 2: the East coast. So good for you Europeans, not so
55:27
Speaker 2: good for you Americans. But that'll probably be the show
55:31
Speaker 2: when you get back to my hotel after the talk
55:33
Speaker 2: after midnight, and that'll be true as well.
55:37
Speaker 3: We'll see on Wednesday.
55:38
Speaker 2: That'll be you on Wednesday, and that'll be tu on
55:39
Speaker 2: Thursday as well when I'm giving talks in the evenings
55:42
Speaker 2: and more difficult to do these shows, but I'll try
55:46
Speaker 2: to do them during the day if i can. All Right,
55:50
Speaker 2: what did I want to say? Yeah, two other news
55:52
Speaker 2: events that I think are important, this one I'll mention
55:55
Speaker 2: one that I'm not going to.
55:57
Speaker 3: Talk about now.
55:58
Speaker 2: But it's a big story and it's a big deal.
56:01
Speaker 2: We've talked about a little bit a few days ago.
56:04
Speaker 2: We'll talk about it some more in the future, but
56:06
Speaker 2: this is a big deal. And that is the way
56:08
Speaker 2: the US government has treated Anthropic and the way open
56:12
Speaker 2: ai has basically lied and deceived its way into a
56:19
Speaker 2: government contract while trying not to offend anybody. If one
56:25
Speaker 2: plan to dump open ai, that is, dumped Chat GPT
56:31
Speaker 2: as much as I like it, and move to Claude. Generally,
56:35
Speaker 2: subscription to Claude have gone through the roof uh and
56:38
Speaker 2: I tend to subscribe to Claude and drop and drop chat,
56:41
Speaker 2: GPT and and maybe ad grock or something. But the
56:45
Speaker 2: way open ai has behaved visa via the Pentagon, the
56:50
Speaker 2: way they have tried to deceive their own customers and
56:54
Speaker 2: their own shareholders.
56:57
Speaker 3: Is just horrific.
56:58
Speaker 2: And uh, I don't think it's a company that I
57:01
Speaker 2: want to support with my business.
57:04
Speaker 3: So I'll talk.
57:05
Speaker 2: About more about that when we have time in a
57:07
Speaker 2: future show. The second story is a terrorist attack that
57:11
Speaker 2: oc could or what looks like a terrorist attack by
57:13
Speaker 2: all accounts as a terrorist attack that occurred yesterday, of
57:15
Speaker 2: all places in Austin, Texas. So I really hope that
57:19
Speaker 2: all my friends and all the people I know in Austin.
57:21
Speaker 3: Texas are safe. But yesterday a gunman on.
57:26
Speaker 2: Sixth Street, on East sixth Street and the music section
57:29
Speaker 2: of Austin, Texas opened fire on people too are dead.
57:33
Speaker 2: I think there were five or six that were injured.
57:35
Speaker 2: Just a horrible attack. Supposedly he was wearing a T
57:41
Speaker 2: shirt that said something like owned by Allah. I suppose
57:44
Speaker 2: he had an Iranian flag on a T shirt underneath
57:49
Speaker 2: his shirt. He had a Quran in his car. There's
57:53
Speaker 2: good reason to believe that this was an attack. He
57:56
Speaker 2: was He comes from a Muslim origin, so there's reason
58:00
Speaker 2: to believe that this was an Islamic Muslim.
58:07
Speaker 3: What do you call it?
58:08
Speaker 2: Motivated terrorist attack in Austin, Texas and stimulated by the
58:14
Speaker 2: war in Iran. So I don't think it's a sleeper cell.
58:18
Speaker 2: People are worried about Uranian sleeper cells. I don't think
58:20
Speaker 2: they really exist, but it is going to get the
58:25
Speaker 2: blood of some marginal, psychologically marginal people. Who are you
58:31
Speaker 2: know most of these people. Maybe I don't know how
58:35
Speaker 2: religiously fanatic they are, but they're psychologically unstable, and this
58:40
Speaker 2: gives them a cause for which they can commit suicide
58:44
Speaker 2: and difle.
58:45
Speaker 3: So, you know, real tragedy in Austin.
58:48
Speaker 2: And I hope again everybody I know and all of
58:52
Speaker 2: you out there who I know are listening from Austin, Texas,
58:54
Speaker 2: I hope you and your families and your friends are
58:56
Speaker 2: all safe and that this you know that this is
59:00
Speaker 2: an isolated case and we won't see more terroist attacks
59:04
Speaker 2: as a consequence of this war. All right, let me
59:10
Speaker 2: turn now to your questions. I don't want to peak
59:14
Speaker 2: quickly at my telegram channels. I also think when is
59:18
Speaker 2: the market opening future markets open. I think they opened later,
59:28
Speaker 2: so it's too early for future markets, so we're not
59:30
Speaker 2: seeing that. I do find it interesting that while gold
59:34
Speaker 2: is going up with all this turmoil, which you'd kind
59:36
Speaker 2: of expect, and I think we'll go up more tomorrow
59:41
Speaker 2: Bitcoin is not so for other people who thought bitcoin
59:46
Speaker 2: was a haven, Bitcoin was an escape, Bitcoin was the
59:48
Speaker 2: way to It was a hedge protect yourself against a
59:51
Speaker 2: crazy world. It is not.
59:54
Speaker 3: It is kind of stuck at around sixty five.
59:56
Speaker 2: It keeps trying to rally and go towards seventy thousand,
1:00:00
Speaker 2: which is already a pretty disappointing number. Bitcoin is down
1:00:05
Speaker 2: twenty three percent over the last year, and only up
1:00:11
Speaker 2: thirty two percent over the last five years so and
1:00:15
Speaker 2: down fourteen percent over the last month. Bitcoin is not
1:00:20
Speaker 2: a safe evorite. Gold is.
1:00:25
Speaker 3: And for geopolitical instability.
1:00:28
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to your questions. There seems to be
1:00:30
Speaker 2: quite a few of them. Feel free to ask more.
1:00:32
Speaker 2: We're still way below our targets, so feel free to
1:00:37
Speaker 2: jump in, particularly with twenty plus dollar questions.
1:00:41
Speaker 3: Evan, thanks for everything you do.
1:00:43
Speaker 1: Uran.
1:00:43
Speaker 2: Also thanks for appearing on Meeting of the Minds this afternoon. Yeah,
1:00:46
Speaker 2: I was on Meeting of the mind Harry binswaying his
1:00:47
Speaker 2: list event this afternon talking about Iran. So yeah, that
1:00:52
Speaker 2: was fun. I enjoyed it. Professor Kracken asked missing the
1:00:56
Speaker 2: Life show yesterday, so celebrating with a donation today I
1:01:00
Speaker 2: appreciate that, Professor Kraken from the Czech Republic, I appreciate it.
1:01:05
Speaker 3: Thank you will.
1:01:08
Speaker 2: Did anyone else notice Fossile Future right behind Douglas Murray
1:01:14
Speaker 2: during his Free Press live stream?
1:01:16
Speaker 3: Too cool?
1:01:17
Speaker 2: No, I didn't notice that, but I'm not surprised. I mean,
1:01:19
Speaker 2: Douglas Murray, I'm sure it is friendly towards Alex and
1:01:23
Speaker 2: Alex's agenda. I know he read the book. I know
1:01:25
Speaker 2: he's read Iinrand, I know he's read my books. He's
1:01:28
Speaker 2: very he's friendly towards me. So, you know, Douglas Murray
1:01:34
Speaker 2: most part is a good guy. I mean, we've got differences,
1:01:36
Speaker 2: significant differences about the nature Western civilization and its origins
1:01:39
Speaker 2: and the future and a lot of stuff.
1:01:42
Speaker 3: But it is open to a lot.
1:01:44
Speaker 2: Of our ideas and has engaged with them, and that
1:01:47
Speaker 2: is good. Colleen. Nice to see you, Colleen. Are you
1:01:54
Speaker 2: at all concerned that this will become a prolonged conflict
1:01:57
Speaker 2: that threatens US supplies? Do you have any sense of
1:02:00
Speaker 2: Iranian population desire for regime change? So no, I'm not
1:02:04
Speaker 2: particularly concerned, and I'm not particularly concerned is because the
1:02:07
Speaker 2: Iranian regime is weak, is very weak. The military is weak. Now.
1:02:12
Speaker 2: They can suppress their own people for a long time,
1:02:15
Speaker 2: but they can't really inflict harm on anybody else for
1:02:18
Speaker 2: a very long time. You know. I think that you
1:02:22
Speaker 2: could see within a week the missile the ballistic missile
1:02:27
Speaker 2: capabilities depleted, particularly if other countries join in and bombing
1:02:32
Speaker 2: the missile launchers, and maybe Saudi Arabia, maybe maybe some
1:02:35
Speaker 2: of the other Golf countries will join in, Maybe the
1:02:38
Speaker 2: Europeans will join in. Remember, the Israel has basically cleared
1:02:41
Speaker 2: the space, It's eviscerated all of the defense systems, so
1:02:45
Speaker 2: anybody can fly in andto whatever they want, any of
1:02:48
Speaker 2: these countries, hopefully if they if they come in, help
1:02:53
Speaker 2: destroy the launchers and help ultimately destroy the ballistic missiles,
1:03:01
Speaker 2: then Iran has nothing, no way to threaten anybody. It's
1:03:06
Speaker 2: only capacity to threaten the anybody any country is its
1:03:11
Speaker 2: realistic missile program and its drones, and I think those
1:03:15
Speaker 2: could be placed under control, those could be basically destroyed.
1:03:18
Speaker 2: The capabilities can be destroyed over the next couple of weeks,
1:03:22
Speaker 2: over the next couple of weeks, I think, if you so,
1:03:29
Speaker 2: that's one I do worry about their disrupting oil supplies.
1:03:34
Speaker 2: I think all supplies that is the weakness of this campaign.
1:03:37
Speaker 2: I assume the United States as a plan on.
1:03:40
Speaker 3: How to deal with that, but I'm not sure.
1:03:42
Speaker 2: I also am assuming that one of the reasons is
1:03:45
Speaker 2: that most of the air defense systems the US shipped
1:03:49
Speaker 2: to the Middle East are deployed around the oil fields
1:03:52
Speaker 2: and around the Saudi oil facilities and the other countries
1:03:55
Speaker 2: or facilities in order to protect those facilities.
1:03:59
Speaker 3: I don't so that. For fact.
1:04:01
Speaker 2: I assume that's the case, and that they have all
1:04:05
Speaker 2: kinds of ways in which to protect our facilities from
1:04:07
Speaker 2: drone attacks. So I just don't see how it goes
1:04:13
Speaker 2: for a long time now in terms of the desire
1:04:14
Speaker 2: for regime change, look for days, Iranians went out into
1:04:20
Speaker 2: the streets in the hundreds of thousands to demonstrate against
1:04:24
Speaker 2: the regime, actually in the millions if you count the
1:04:26
Speaker 2: entire country. In spite of the fact that they were
1:04:29
Speaker 2: being shot to death, in spite of the fact that
1:04:31
Speaker 2: thirty thousand of them died thirty to forty, they kept coming.
1:04:36
Speaker 2: And then recently they went out the streets again in
1:04:39
Speaker 2: spite of knowing how the regime would react. If you
1:04:42
Speaker 2: remember the Goals Revolution two years ago where Iranian goals
1:04:46
Speaker 2: went out into the street to demonstrate against the prohibition
1:04:50
Speaker 2: on showing hair right the requirement to where their job,
1:04:55
Speaker 2: and how brave they were, how courageous they were, and
1:04:59
Speaker 2: how princip they were.
1:05:00
Speaker 3: What they wanted.
1:05:01
Speaker 2: They wanted a normal life, they wanted a Western normal life.
1:05:06
Speaker 2: There is a significant percentage, I don't know what the
1:05:08
Speaker 2: percentage is, but a significant percentage. I think over forty percent,
1:05:14
Speaker 2: potentially well over fifty percent of the Iranian population that
1:05:18
Speaker 2: not only wants regime change, but once.
1:05:23
Speaker 3: A secular government.
1:05:26
Speaker 1: Now.
1:05:26
Speaker 2: It's also true that there's probably about twenty percent of
1:05:29
Speaker 2: the Iranian population, maybe more, who likes the Islami cretime,
1:05:36
Speaker 2: who is religiously fundamental, that wants this to continue, that
1:05:42
Speaker 2: is willing to die for Allah, that likes all their
1:05:45
Speaker 2: morality laws and they hit job.
1:05:47
Speaker 3: And all of that.
1:05:48
Speaker 2: I don't think it's more than twenty percent. It might
1:05:51
Speaker 2: be forty percent, I don't know. And then there's a
1:05:54
Speaker 2: bunch of people in the middle who don't you know,
1:05:56
Speaker 2: who not you know, They don't have.
1:05:58
Speaker 3: Strong opinions one way or the other.
1:06:03
Speaker 2: So I'd say more of the Iranian population once regime change,
1:06:09
Speaker 2: and indeed, once regime change towards secular regime, than want
1:06:13
Speaker 2: the regime to continue. Now, whether they will be strong enough,
1:06:18
Speaker 2: whether they will be able to take over the government
1:06:22
Speaker 2: and replace it is very difficult to tell, and to
1:06:25
Speaker 2: a logic extent, to a logic extent will depend on
1:06:30
Speaker 2: whether any military units or even Islamic revolution in guard
1:06:33
Speaker 2: units defect from the government to the opposition and march
1:06:38
Speaker 2: with the people and take over the government. But that
1:06:40
Speaker 2: is going to have to happen. Regime change can only
1:06:44
Speaker 2: happen on the ground, so the Iranian people will have
1:06:47
Speaker 2: to rise up and take control of their government. I
1:06:51
Speaker 2: think they want to do that. I think they are
1:06:54
Speaker 2: enough of them. I think they will get support from
1:06:57
Speaker 2: some of the military. There's no certainty to any of that.
1:07:01
Speaker 2: And as Israel in the United States weaken the regime
1:07:05
Speaker 2: more and more and more, and they're doing this explicitly
1:07:08
Speaker 2: weakening those elements of the regime that would fight against
1:07:13
Speaker 2: the reformers, against the people who want to regime change,
1:07:18
Speaker 2: the probability of success increases. So I'm really hortened to
1:07:22
Speaker 2: see today most of them are many of the techs.
1:07:25
Speaker 3: I don't know if most many of the attacks.
1:07:26
Speaker 2: Wire on regime troops that would be used to suppress
1:07:32
Speaker 2: any kind of uprising by the people. That's what Israel
1:07:36
Speaker 2: was attacking the headquarters of those elements, with those militarized
1:07:41
Speaker 2: elements within Iran that would try to suppress the people,
1:07:45
Speaker 2: would try to shoot at the protesters, would try to
1:07:48
Speaker 2: stop regime change. If they can keep doing that, if
1:07:52
Speaker 2: they have, if they can identify enough of them, and
1:07:56
Speaker 2: not just into Iran, but in other cities around Iran,
1:08:00
Speaker 2: then I think you will start seeing people rising up
1:08:02
Speaker 2: against the regime and slowly replacing them. And it might
1:08:05
Speaker 2: happen in some of the peripheral cities first. You might
1:08:08
Speaker 2: see the people taking over cities and different parts of
1:08:12
Speaker 2: the country before Tehran falls, But ultimately I think Tehran
1:08:17
Speaker 2: will fall, and I think you will see regime change now.
1:08:20
Speaker 2: Whether they can core less around one figure, whether they
1:08:23
Speaker 2: can core less around one system of government, whether this
1:08:27
Speaker 2: descends into some kind of civil war not.
1:08:30
Speaker 3: I don't know. I hope not.
1:08:33
Speaker 2: But I do think this regime is finished. I don't
1:08:37
Speaker 2: think it could sustain the embarrassment of how badly it
1:08:40
Speaker 2: is losing, how badly lost the Twelve Day War and
1:08:43
Speaker 2: how badly it's losing now. I mean, as I said,
1:08:47
Speaker 2: the is Raelis hacked you know, Uranian television.
1:08:53
Speaker 3: And showed showed Bibi NATANIAO and Trump.
1:09:01
Speaker 2: I guess the headline has uh a wrong date. Huh.
1:09:07
Speaker 2: I don't know if that can be anything can be
1:09:09
Speaker 2: done about that.
1:09:15
Speaker 4: Alright, Uh, let's see.
1:09:25
Speaker 2: Thank you, Colleen. Alright, Jennifer, uh Jennifer from Canada. Other
1:09:31
Speaker 2: day you said FDA Food Inspectors has little to lose
1:09:35
Speaker 2: in screw ups. But isn't hyper fear of screw ups?
1:09:38
Speaker 2: Why FDA slows so many good drugs coming to market?
1:09:42
Speaker 2: Wouldn't FBA food inspectors have some fear of letting bad
1:09:46
Speaker 2: food through? Uh n you know, not really. The reality
1:09:50
Speaker 2: is that the inspector on the ground, it's not gonna
1:09:53
Speaker 2: lose his job if if the food, if the bad
1:09:56
Speaker 2: food goes through, He's got a job to do. He
1:09:59
Speaker 2: clocks in nine to five. You know, if somebody wants
1:10:03
Speaker 2: to bribe build a little bit, he doesn't make a
1:10:04
Speaker 2: lot of money. It's easy to do so. I remember
1:10:10
Speaker 2: listening once to o NPR, of all places, National Public
1:10:14
Speaker 2: Radio story interviewing California farmers. There being some e. Coli
1:10:19
Speaker 2: or something food thing, and they were looking at food
1:10:22
Speaker 2: inspection on the farms, and the farmers were talking about
1:10:25
Speaker 2: FDA inspections, and they were talking about inspectors from supermarkets,
1:10:29
Speaker 2: grocery stores. And it was obvious and it was clear
1:10:33
Speaker 2: from the way they were talking this was NPR. They
1:10:36
Speaker 2: were a lot more worried in a sense that the
1:10:39
Speaker 2: rigor of the food inspections did not come from the FDA.
1:10:43
Speaker 2: The rigor of the inspections came from the private food inspectors,
1:10:50
Speaker 2: the grocery stores. They were doing a better job than
1:10:56
Speaker 2: the FDA. Now, I think the incentives a little different
1:11:00
Speaker 2: when it comes to drugs. I think when it comes
1:11:03
Speaker 2: to drugs, the committees that approve the drugs, this is
1:11:06
Speaker 2: not their job, this is not their day job. For
1:11:10
Speaker 2: the most part, the incentives are different. It's a much
1:11:14
Speaker 2: more political thing. You know, their decisions affect the entire country.
1:11:18
Speaker 2: If a drug goes out there and they are severe
1:11:20
Speaker 2: side effects, they look really really bad. The politicians who
1:11:24
Speaker 2: appointed them look really really bad. And their incentive is
1:11:28
Speaker 2: not to have drugs released because any drug released it
1:11:35
Speaker 2: has this potential of side effects.
1:11:37
Speaker 3: So they are.
1:11:38
Speaker 2: Super conservative, super rigorous, in ways that are again destructive
1:11:43
Speaker 2: to consumers. So they don't give consumers choices in terms
1:11:46
Speaker 2: of what kind of drugs they can get because they
1:11:49
Speaker 2: immediately rule out anything that might have any kind.
1:11:54
Speaker 3: Of significant side effects.
1:11:57
Speaker 2: So I think you have to look at who is
1:12:01
Speaker 2: doing the inspecting.
1:12:03
Speaker 3: What are they incentives that they have.
1:12:05
Speaker 2: I think the Food Inspector has different incentives than the FBA,
1:12:09
Speaker 2: as a regulatory agency has. But that's a good question,
1:12:14
Speaker 2: unrelated to the one you won, but a good question,
1:12:20
Speaker 2: al right. Uh Moulten's splendid fifty dollars, Thank you Molten splendor.
1:12:25
Speaker 3: The polls showing the low percentage of American's support.
1:12:27
Speaker 2: For Uranian war remind er, remind remains me, reminds me
1:12:32
Speaker 2: of those who declared that the attack on the Twin
1:12:34
Speaker 2: Towers was America's fault. Uh yeah, but it But the
1:12:38
Speaker 2: polls never, I mean, that was never a big number. Right,
1:12:43
Speaker 2: So here only twenty three percent supports I don't think
1:12:48
Speaker 2: I I I don't think S S S I I
1:12:51
Speaker 2: I in forty six are against. I don't think fIF
1:12:52
Speaker 2: forty six are Americans thought that the the Twin Towers
1:12:56
Speaker 2: was America's fault. But I don't remember those polls.
1:12:58
Speaker 3: Maybe you're right.
1:13:00
Speaker 2: I mean, these numbers with regot to Irana scary numbers
1:13:05
Speaker 2: and have to worry Trump.
1:13:06
Speaker 3: I mean, part of the.
1:13:07
Speaker 2: Reason I think he's doing this is to both say
1:13:09
Speaker 2: his chances for the midterms. If it's this unpopular, then
1:13:13
Speaker 2: the chances of the midterms are not being boasted. Professor
1:13:18
Speaker 2: Kracken says, one more to celebrate the good news yesterday.
1:13:21
Speaker 2: Read a lot of bad takes during the weekend, read
1:13:24
Speaker 2: a lot of bad tics dre on the weekend.
1:13:25
Speaker 3: So let's put out some positivity.
1:13:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Israel in America doing a phenomenal job.
1:13:34
Speaker 2: Phenomenal job. It's amazing. Uh, what you can do if
1:13:38
Speaker 2: you have the right intelligence, if you have great intelligence,
1:13:41
Speaker 2: and if you have great technology, and if you had
1:13:43
Speaker 2: great motivated troops deploying all of them.
1:13:47
Speaker 3: Steve Rodgers Hey, Steve Uh.
1:13:50
Speaker 2: Steve says, remember John Lewis's website a chronology of attacks
1:13:54
Speaker 2: against the West. That would be really useful. Right now,
1:13:58
Speaker 2: I can't find it online. Anyone who might have a copy.
1:14:02
Speaker 2: Can we resurrect this key bit of info? I mean
1:14:06
Speaker 2: Elan Jono might have a copy or might have his
1:14:09
Speaker 2: own chronology, but it would be useful. It would be
1:14:13
Speaker 2: useful to put out a chronology like that, specifically identifying
1:14:19
Speaker 2: the Iranians when they did it. So if it doesn't exist,
1:14:24
Speaker 2: we can recreate it. It should be I mean, it's
1:14:27
Speaker 2: not that hard to figure it out, particularly if you
1:14:30
Speaker 2: just delimited it to an Iran based one. That would
1:14:34
Speaker 2: be pretty easy to do. So Yeah, I think Elan
1:14:39
Speaker 2: would be a good person of contact about that. Ask
1:14:41
Speaker 2: him if he has it. If I remember tomorrow, I'll
1:14:44
Speaker 2: ask him as well, And it would be a good
1:14:47
Speaker 2: idea to recreate it and put it up somewhere Upton,
1:14:52
Speaker 2: every internet forum. Yesterday Iran killed tens of thousands of
1:14:57
Speaker 2: protesters Mayah a school blew up.
1:15:00
Speaker 3: The Jews must be stopped.
1:15:02
Speaker 2: It will be a long time before Israel is paid
1:15:04
Speaker 2: back in spirit for liberating Iran. Yes, a very long time.
1:15:09
Speaker 2: Nobody wants to nobody, nobody's sympathetic to Israel, and nobody
1:15:11
Speaker 2: cares about Israel, and nobody's pros well. But yes, the school,
1:15:15
Speaker 2: as I talked about the earlier, the Jews didn't actually
1:15:20
Speaker 2: do it. It turned out to be the Iranians did it.
1:15:23
Speaker 2: It was a misfiring of one of their missiles. And yeah,
1:15:30
Speaker 2: and it's also Mayor and caring about all the Americans
1:15:35
Speaker 2: Iran this regime is killed, which is the malo justification
1:15:39
Speaker 2: for this war. The mal justification for this war is
1:15:41
Speaker 2: not the liberation of the protesters or retribution for the
1:15:46
Speaker 2: killing of the protesters.
1:15:48
Speaker 3: The mal justification for this.
1:15:50
Speaker 2: War is retribution for all the Americans killed by the
1:15:56
Speaker 2: Iranian regime over the last forty something years. Retribution for
1:16:00
Speaker 2: the taking of the embassy in nineteen seventy nine, retribution
1:16:06
Speaker 2: for the Marines dying in the barracks in Beirut in
1:16:09
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty three, retribution for the Koba Tower, and retribution
1:16:14
Speaker 2: for the many, many, many, many other American casualties over
1:16:16
Speaker 2: the years of this Iranian regime. It is also I
1:16:21
Speaker 2: think Cobot was ninety six. It was also it's also
1:16:26
Speaker 2: a preemptive strike against the potential of Iuwan getting a
1:16:30
Speaker 2: nuclear bomb. It's a pan to strike against the potential
1:16:33
Speaker 2: of Ian building an ICBM into continental ballistic missile, which
1:16:38
Speaker 2: is what they are working on, as they were working
1:16:40
Speaker 2: on as we speak. So absolutely, this is a moral
1:16:49
Speaker 2: war from the American perspective, a war of self defense,
1:16:52
Speaker 2: essentially a wolf of self defense, sadly prosecuted by some
1:17:00
Speaker 2: but he who you know, who could stab his allies
1:17:04
Speaker 2: in the back at any moment and could change his
1:17:06
Speaker 2: mind about something in any moment, and as ultimately not
1:17:09
Speaker 2: a strategic long term thinker. So one hopes that there's
1:17:13
Speaker 2: somebody in the White House that is and that whatever
1:17:17
Speaker 2: the forces align, maybe it's MBS encouraging him that somehow
1:17:22
Speaker 2: this this he allows this to continue. I mean one
1:17:26
Speaker 2: of the fears should be if she calls him up
1:17:28
Speaker 2: and says, you know, he should really stop this, and
1:17:30
Speaker 2: Imputin calls him up and says, you know, should really
1:17:32
Speaker 2: stop this, he might stop. I don't know.
1:17:41
Speaker 4: All right, let's uh yeah, let me look at these stickers.
1:17:45
Speaker 2: Let me thank the stickers. Ryan, thank you for the sticker,
1:17:48
Speaker 2: and uh that was Ryan, and this is Jeremy, thank
1:17:54
Speaker 2: you for the sticker. And who else do we have
1:17:58
Speaker 2: enrich You two can support the show and value for value,
1:18:04
Speaker 2: trade with me and show your appreciation and you know,
1:18:08
Speaker 2: be a trader with me. I provide the content, trade
1:18:12
Speaker 2: with me. You could do that by doing a sticker.
1:18:14
Speaker 2: There three hundred people watching right now live. Many of
1:18:18
Speaker 2: you probably are not regular supporters of ther on book show.
1:18:21
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've done a super chat or
1:18:22
Speaker 2: a sticker in the past, you might not be Thank you, Robert,
1:18:26
Speaker 2: thank you l Lex, Thank you Matthew, Matt Mathias for
1:18:32
Speaker 2: the stickers.
1:18:34
Speaker 3: Thank you guys. So this is an opportunity for you.
1:18:35
Speaker 2: To to while you're live, to support what I do
1:18:44
Speaker 2: and show your support for that and again become a
1:18:47
Speaker 2: trader rather than just a consumer, just a consumer. All right,
1:18:53
Speaker 2: we've got over three hundred people watching live, all right,
1:18:56
Speaker 2: Michael our Trump and BB learning that being decisive is
1:19:00
Speaker 2: a way to maintain power. I don't know. I don't
1:19:03
Speaker 2: know what they're learning. I mean, as you know, I'm
1:19:05
Speaker 2: not a fan of either one of them, and you know,
1:19:09
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're learning from this BBS. BB
1:19:12
Speaker 2: has been at his best, without any question over the
1:19:15
Speaker 2: last two years, I think, starting with the with the
1:19:18
Speaker 2: complete destructions, Malla, with the beepers, and to this day,
1:19:22
Speaker 2: he's been at his best from a from a military perspective,
1:19:26
Speaker 2: domestic policy, eh, but at least from a military perspective,
1:19:30
Speaker 2: done a good job. Trump on on again, off again,
1:19:34
Speaker 2: on and again on UF again. Sometimes he does good
1:19:38
Speaker 2: stuff almost by accident. This is one of those times,
1:19:42
Speaker 2: one of those times, Bonnie, thank you for the sticker,
1:19:45
Speaker 2: really appreciate it. Michael with radically slam rapidly die with
1:19:50
Speaker 2: the fall of you on, I think it will weaken significantly.
1:19:54
Speaker 2: I think it will weaken significantly.
1:19:56
Speaker 3: Will they die? It is hard to say.
1:19:58
Speaker 2: It still has supporters like the Tari's and others, but
1:20:03
Speaker 2: it is going to weakend. And even the Kataris are
1:20:05
Speaker 2: going to be hesitant to piss off these Raelis too
1:20:08
Speaker 2: much after what they saw them do to the Iranians.
1:20:11
Speaker 2: So I think that Ramas has finished. Krizmbala is for
1:20:16
Speaker 2: the most part finished. Its only supporter was Iran. So
1:20:19
Speaker 2: what Doesala do without Iran? If Iran falls, Krisbalai is finished.
1:20:25
Speaker 2: I think much of the of the radicalization in Europe
1:20:29
Speaker 2: ends because much of it is funded by Iranian money.
1:20:33
Speaker 2: As I've said many, many times, the Sunni Islamists, including
1:20:38
Speaker 2: being Laden by the Way and certainly the Muslim Brotherhood
1:20:41
Speaker 2: in Egypt, were super inspired, really really really inspired by
1:20:47
Speaker 2: the Iranian Revolution. Even though the Iranian revolution are Sunnis,
1:20:51
Speaker 2: many of the sorry Iranian Revolution of Shiites, many of
1:20:55
Speaker 2: the Sunni Islamists were inspired by its success, inspired that
1:21:00
Speaker 2: Islam could win, and were radicalized by the Iranian revolution
1:21:06
Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy nine. You saw a massive expansion in
1:21:10
Speaker 2: the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt leading up to the murder
1:21:12
Speaker 2: of Saddat in eighty one or eighty two. You've been
1:21:16
Speaker 2: lot and radicalized, ultimately moving to Afghanistan and fighting fighting
1:21:22
Speaker 2: the Russians in Afghanistan. During the nineteen eighties, you saw
1:21:25
Speaker 2: generally the establishment of many many of the Sunni terrorist
1:21:29
Speaker 2: organizations and re ened, being re energized and really created.
1:21:37
Speaker 2: Most of these terrorist organizations are relatively new post nineteen
1:21:41
Speaker 2: seventy nine, inspired by the model of Iran, Iran falling
1:21:45
Speaker 2: and the people of Iran leading to the revolution.
1:21:51
Speaker 3: Is going to, without any.
1:21:52
Speaker 2: Question, undermined Islam everywhere. Will it die completely? Probably not,
1:21:57
Speaker 2: but will it be weakened dramatically? Yes, Colleen, thank you.
1:22:03
Speaker 2: Do you see any similarities between the US response to
1:22:06
Speaker 2: Israel Gaza war and support for Palestine and the US
1:22:11
Speaker 2: disapproval of this war? US response there is rady Gaza
1:22:17
Speaker 2: war and support for Palestine and the US and the
1:22:20
Speaker 2: disciproval of this war. I mean, I mean yes, I, well,
1:22:24
Speaker 2: I I I I, I don't know, right, So what I
1:22:27
Speaker 2: see is that since the war with Gaza, since October seventh,
1:22:31
Speaker 2: fairly the US population, both on the left and on
1:22:34
Speaker 2: the right, has been moving away from Israel, has been
1:22:38
Speaker 2: becoming more and more anti Israel. And the number of
1:22:41
Speaker 2: conspiracy theories on the left and on the right suggesting
1:22:45
Speaker 2: that the American government.
1:22:47
Speaker 3: Is just a uh.
1:22:49
Speaker 2: Just doing whatever Israel wants it to do, is being
1:22:51
Speaker 2: manipulated by Israel. That perspective has grown dramatically. Remember Tucker Carlson,
1:22:57
Speaker 2: a hater of Israel and the hater of Jews more broadly,
1:23:00
Speaker 2: is hugely popular, particularly among young Republicans.
1:23:06
Speaker 3: He is convinced this war is.
1:23:10
Speaker 2: Basically being driven by Nitaiao, who is manipulating Trump. And
1:23:15
Speaker 2: I think a lot of Republicans, as a consequence, convinced
1:23:18
Speaker 2: of this. And I think given that it's coming from
1:23:19
Speaker 2: the right and from the left right, you're seeing more
1:23:26
Speaker 2: and more of them turning against Israel and as a consequence,
1:23:29
Speaker 2: turning against this war which they see as an Israeli
1:23:33
Speaker 2: war which the US is being dragged into. And remember
1:23:37
Speaker 2: Trump has not made the case to the American people.
1:23:41
Speaker 2: Trump has not gone out there and said, this is
1:23:45
Speaker 2: why we're attacking you on. This is a threat the
1:23:48
Speaker 2: Uranian regime poses to American citizens. This is why it's
1:23:51
Speaker 2: an unnational self interest to do this. This is why
1:23:54
Speaker 2: this is an essential self defense war. He hasn't done that.
1:23:59
Speaker 2: He hasn't gone to Congress, he hasn't gone to the
1:24:01
Speaker 2: American people. He's just a gunslinger and he's just slinging
1:24:06
Speaker 2: his gun and he's not explaining what he's doing. So
1:24:08
Speaker 2: it's not surprising the American people don't support it if
1:24:11
Speaker 2: they're getting they use from Matt Walsh and from Tucker
1:24:14
Speaker 2: Carlson instead of, you know, being advised by the leader
1:24:21
Speaker 2: of the country, which is Trump, but by the person
1:24:25
Speaker 2: who's initiating this. I mean, it used to be that
1:24:30
Speaker 2: you did something like this, you did a fireside chat,
1:24:32
Speaker 2: and you explained to what you were doing to the
1:24:34
Speaker 2: American people. Trump has not done that, which is typical
1:24:38
Speaker 2: of Trump. But it's a reason why and the American
1:24:42
Speaker 2: people right now don't trust him. He's got very low
1:24:45
Speaker 2: popularity and they're just extending this to this as well.
1:24:49
Speaker 2: In addition to the hatred of visual that is coming
1:24:52
Speaker 2: again for both left and right, Stephen, can you bring
1:24:55
Speaker 2: Terror Smith back? I just started reading Opah again. Any
1:24:58
Speaker 2: tips are getting the most out of it? Yeah, I
1:25:00
Speaker 2: mean she'll come back, but it'll be a while. She's
1:25:03
Speaker 2: you know, six months. Stay.
1:25:04
Speaker 3: Yes, she'll be back.
1:25:08
Speaker 2: I don't really have any tips for reading it. Read
1:25:10
Speaker 2: it slowly, read it thoughtfully. I'm still considering doing the
1:25:14
Speaker 2: OPAH reading group. It'll probably happen. I just don't know when.
1:25:18
Speaker 2: I'm trying to figure out when I can call out
1:25:21
Speaker 2: enough time to actually do it, and also how to
1:25:26
Speaker 2: get money for doing it that does not cannibalize other
1:25:30
Speaker 2: sources of income for the show. So there will be
1:25:34
Speaker 2: a OPAH study group that you guys can participate in.
1:25:37
Speaker 2: But I don't have any tips other than read it slowly,
1:25:41
Speaker 2: ask questions. If you don't understand something, read it again, really,
1:25:45
Speaker 2: try to devote significant time to it. Don't just breeze
1:25:48
Speaker 2: through it quickly. Augustina here, Gustina, nice to see you.
1:25:53
Speaker 2: What needs to be done by the US in Iran
1:25:56
Speaker 2: in the medium and long term? Do you think, on
1:25:58
Speaker 2: principle will do what it's right? So we'll start with
1:26:03
Speaker 2: the second question. No, I don't think he will do
1:26:05
Speaker 2: what's right, but it might be out of his hands.
1:26:08
Speaker 2: That is, the better elements within Iran might do what
1:26:11
Speaker 2: is necessary in Iran. Whether Trump wants to or not,
1:26:15
Speaker 2: I don't think he cares one way or the other
1:26:16
Speaker 2: about doing the right thing. What the EU needs to
1:26:21
Speaker 2: needs to do is to insist that any regime change
1:26:24
Speaker 2: is a regime change, that is a move, a significant move,
1:26:29
Speaker 2: a dramatic move towards freedom. The Uranian people have made
1:26:32
Speaker 2: it clear that they want to be free, politically free,
1:26:35
Speaker 2: that they want let's call it liberal democracy. We're not
1:26:37
Speaker 2: going to get capitalism, but let's get liberal democracy or
1:26:40
Speaker 2: a constitutional monarchy. It doesn't matter as long as as
1:26:45
Speaker 2: long as the power is not with a monarch, as
1:26:47
Speaker 2: long as it's a symbolic. What we want is a
1:26:50
Speaker 2: free government, and we want free elections and a relatively
1:26:54
Speaker 2: free economy. Now, what the United States should be doing
1:26:58
Speaker 2: is making that clear that it will not accept any
1:27:02
Speaker 2: regime change other than that, and that it is just
1:27:05
Speaker 2: actively looking for opposition figures within the Iranian people who
1:27:11
Speaker 2: would commit to doing that, and that it would support them,
1:27:15
Speaker 2: support them potentially, you know, with intelligence, with destroying their opponents.
1:27:23
Speaker 3: You know, the molas.
1:27:25
Speaker 2: And potentially even at least in the short one with money.
1:27:28
Speaker 2: So the United States should be clear about what kind
1:27:31
Speaker 2: of Iran it wants after the fact, it wants a
1:27:34
Speaker 2: free Iran with with that is that has a free
1:27:39
Speaker 2: oil sector, there's pumping out oil that allows American investments
1:27:44
Speaker 2: in it.
1:27:44
Speaker 3: That you know, that would appeal to Trump.
1:27:47
Speaker 2: That is generally a you know, again, a liberal democracy,
1:27:51
Speaker 2: a Western style free country doesn't have to be a ideal,
1:27:57
Speaker 2: but something. So I think that needs to be explicit,
1:28:09
Speaker 2: and I don't think it will be in terms of
1:28:12
Speaker 2: militarily what it can do. I think it's doing. It's
1:28:15
Speaker 2: basically weakening all the regime elements that are going to
1:28:19
Speaker 2: suppress destroying. I don't know that they're doing enough of it.
1:28:23
Speaker 2: I would. I would make a list of all the
1:28:26
Speaker 2: Mulas and try to kill them all. I mean, if
1:28:29
Speaker 2: you're an Ayatula in Iran, you should be.
1:28:32
Speaker 3: An a kill list.
1:28:34
Speaker 2: And whether that is in Tehran or you know, the
1:28:36
Speaker 2: spiritual home of Shiat Islam in Iran is homes is sorry, yes, homes,
1:28:45
Speaker 2: right am I getting this mixed up with another city,
1:28:49
Speaker 2: but I think that's it. Anyway, I would go after
1:28:51
Speaker 2: that city. Its schools, it's maddress us, it's religious leadership.
1:28:56
Speaker 2: I would make this about eliminating the religious infrastructure for
1:29:02
Speaker 2: Islamist war, and I don't think Trump will do that.
1:29:09
Speaker 2: I don't think Trump will do that, but we might
1:29:18
Speaker 2: get a good result in spite of that. That is,
1:29:20
Speaker 2: the Iranian people might do it anyway, even without American help.
1:29:24
Speaker 2: That is, we will take out the military side of it,
1:29:26
Speaker 2: and they will deal with the post the post regime
1:29:33
Speaker 2: kind of regime. And then it is calling the action
1:29:38
Speaker 2: on constitutional. Way to hedge on praising Trump. Bottom line,
1:29:41
Speaker 2: should we have done it or not? We should have
1:29:44
Speaker 2: done it. Should have asked for Congress permission first. We
1:29:46
Speaker 2: should have had of voting in Congress. First. I have
1:29:49
Speaker 2: no problem praising Trump. This is good that he did this,
1:29:52
Speaker 2: and I said Kamala wouldn't have done it. Other Republicans
1:29:56
Speaker 2: probably would have. But it's unconstitutional. That's just a effect,
1:30:01
Speaker 2: and he should have asked for Congression approval to do it.
1:30:04
Speaker 3: Now.
1:30:05
Speaker 2: I'm not super pissed off about that, primarily because this
1:30:09
Speaker 2: has become kind of a tradition in America of not
1:30:11
Speaker 2: asking for congressional approval for these things, going back to
1:30:14
Speaker 2: the VIA before the Vietnam War, so it doesn't surprise
1:30:18
Speaker 2: me he didn't and it's not that.
1:30:20
Speaker 3: Big of a deal.
1:30:20
Speaker 2: But he has a tendency to ggno the constitution and
1:30:24
Speaker 2: this will reinforce that tendency and that's not good. Raphael
1:30:30
Speaker 2: side note, first time in Madrid this weekend. Very impressed
1:30:34
Speaker 2: with art. Yeah, there's a lot of art, art quality
1:30:36
Speaker 2: of the city. Also discovered mengs. I don't know what
1:30:39
Speaker 2: mengs is, which was very good. Surprise me.
1:30:43
Speaker 3: Nngs.
1:30:44
Speaker 2: I don't know what that is. Raphel, You're gonna have
1:30:46
Speaker 2: to tell me what that is. Augustina, how can you
1:30:49
Speaker 2: run realistically retaliate American civilians in potential danger from terrorist attacks?
1:30:54
Speaker 2: Do you trust this administration to protect Americans? I mean,
1:30:58
Speaker 2: I don't think there's much Yon can do. As I said,
1:31:01
Speaker 2: there isn't much that Iran can retaliate. I don't believe
1:31:05
Speaker 2: they have a vast network of sleeper cells all over
1:31:07
Speaker 2: the world, all over America. I don't think they can
1:31:11
Speaker 2: do much, particularly not in the short run, and in
1:31:15
Speaker 2: the long run they may be all gone. So I
1:31:18
Speaker 2: don't think American civilians at risk in particular. Again, I
1:31:23
Speaker 2: think the biggest risk is to oil. It's economic risk,
1:31:28
Speaker 2: it's not the risk of lives and property of Americans.
1:31:31
Speaker 3: Iran has very limited reach.
1:31:34
Speaker 2: Risbella was a risk to Israelis, but also potentially to Americans.
1:31:39
Speaker 2: Risbella has bases in Latin America. It was established and
1:31:47
Speaker 2: it had bases in Venezuela and maybe other places of
1:31:50
Speaker 2: South America. You remember Augustina the bombing of the Israeli
1:31:56
Speaker 2: embassy in Israeli, Well, was it the Jewish Community Center
1:31:59
Speaker 2: or something innos Airius years ago? That was Krisbella in
1:32:02
Speaker 2: Latin America funded by the Iranians. That was the Iranians
1:32:05
Speaker 2: doing that. And Milay actually mentioned that today praising the
1:32:09
Speaker 2: Americans and supporting Americans in the Israelis and what they
1:32:11
Speaker 2: were doing. Iran is an enemy of Argentina. But even
1:32:17
Speaker 2: those kind of resources, because of what israel Is done
1:32:20
Speaker 2: Trisbeala over the last two years. Riz Bula does not
1:32:23
Speaker 2: have the capabilities. I don't think to pull off a
1:32:27
Speaker 2: major terrorist attack really anywhere in the world right now. Now.
1:32:31
Speaker 2: I hope I'm right. I might be wrong. But even
1:32:35
Speaker 2: if they pull off an attack somewhere, nothing sustainable, nothing
1:32:42
Speaker 2: nothing sustainable, Jamie, how likely is Saudi Arabia and other
1:32:48
Speaker 2: GCC states to strike Iran soon. I don't know. They
1:32:52
Speaker 2: might just use their air force and everything for defensive purposes.
1:32:56
Speaker 2: I think there's what, I don't know, forty percent chance
1:32:58
Speaker 2: that they would strike directly, but I don't know.
1:33:02
Speaker 3: It's it's hard to tell.
1:33:03
Speaker 2: Something to watch in the next few days. Rand rand
1:33:10
Speaker 2: all star fifty Australian dollars, thank you. Could this be
1:33:18
Speaker 2: like the Russian Revolution where soldiers could refuse to kill
1:33:21
Speaker 2: their own people and defect to join the people, and
1:33:24
Speaker 2: what do you think.
1:33:25
Speaker 3: Are the chances of this?
1:33:26
Speaker 2: Lastly, it's interesting to compare kir and Albanese in their
1:33:31
Speaker 2: response Abani in their response, so Kistama in England was
1:33:37
Speaker 2: relatively supportive and Albanese was negative. I didn't see what
1:33:41
Speaker 2: Albans actually said about this, so I don't know, but.
1:33:47
Speaker 3: Yes, definitely, I think that is the hope.
1:33:50
Speaker 2: The hope is that some of the troops in the
1:33:53
Speaker 2: Islamic Revolutionary God will defect, they will refuse to fire,
1:33:57
Speaker 2: that they will shift sides. I'm hoping that the military
1:34:00
Speaker 2: will shift sides.
1:34:02
Speaker 3: That is the hope.
1:34:03
Speaker 2: The hope is that exactly what happened in the Russian
1:34:05
Speaker 2: Revolution happens, soldiers refuse to kill their own people. Now
1:34:09
Speaker 2: again they were willing to kill a few weeks ago.
1:34:12
Speaker 2: But maybe now Israel in the US will convince them
1:34:15
Speaker 2: that this regime is basically over, that is finished, it
1:34:19
Speaker 2: is dead. And they are they are they are supporting
1:34:22
Speaker 2: a dead horse, and and and they will they will
1:34:27
Speaker 2: shift as a consequence.
1:34:28
Speaker 3: That is that is the big hope.
1:34:31
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think it's there's a good possibility that happens.
1:34:34
Speaker 2: That happens. And by the way, the same thing happened
1:34:40
Speaker 2: not only during the Russian Revolution, but the same thing happened.
1:34:44
Speaker 3: During the fall of the Soviet Union.
1:34:46
Speaker 2: I mean, the army refused to obey the orders, and
1:34:50
Speaker 2: that's when it was all over. And and I'm hoping
1:34:53
Speaker 2: that the army here, the Iranian army, at some point,
1:34:56
Speaker 2: maybe not tomorrow, maybe in a week, maybe in two weeks,
1:34:59
Speaker 2: maybe three weeks, will refuse the orders of their whoever
1:35:01
Speaker 2: they are tula Is and pursue their own course, which
1:35:08
Speaker 2: is to support the people, to support the people who
1:35:11
Speaker 2: want to overthrow this government. Grandmaster GB, thank you for
1:35:16
Speaker 2: all your commentary and work.
1:35:17
Speaker 3: I hope your family here stay safe.
1:35:19
Speaker 2: Thank you. Everybody's safe so far. I talk to my
1:35:21
Speaker 2: dad today.
1:35:22
Speaker 3: They're safe.
1:35:23
Speaker 2: You know.
1:35:24
Speaker 3: It's at their age.
1:35:25
Speaker 2: My dad is ninety one next month. Going from room
1:35:30
Speaker 2: to room every time there's an area shelter and going
1:35:32
Speaker 2: into the is just very difficult. And my mom can't
1:35:38
Speaker 2: really walk, and so it's very very difficult for them.
1:35:41
Speaker 2: But they are hanging in there, and I think everybody
1:35:44
Speaker 2: realized that while this is very difficult, it is necessary.
1:35:49
Speaker 2: Val says, have you ever been to the Natural History
1:35:51
Speaker 2: Museum in London? Yeah, it's amazing. You should if you're
1:35:53
Speaker 2: still there. It's stunning, a spectacle, the blue whale skeleton
1:35:58
Speaker 2: and the architecture when you enter, it's a vista. Yes,
1:36:01
Speaker 2: it's one of the great museums in the world.
1:36:03
Speaker 3: I've been there.
1:36:04
Speaker 2: I usually go to the art museums when I'm in London.
1:36:07
Speaker 2: I spend a little bit of time in the National Gallery,
1:36:09
Speaker 2: and tomorrow, if I have time, there is an exhibit
1:36:13
Speaker 2: at the National gal I don't know if the National
1:36:14
Speaker 2: gal he is open tomorrow, but there is. For those
1:36:18
Speaker 2: of you living in London, there is an exhibit of
1:36:22
Speaker 2: the Right of Derby that I'm really really curious about.
1:36:29
Speaker 2: That I want to go tomorrow, and I want to
1:36:31
Speaker 2: see if it's If it's open tomorrow, will go. Yes,
1:36:35
Speaker 2: it is open tomorrow, so I will go. I will
1:36:39
Speaker 2: go tomorrow morning to check it out. Right of Derby
1:36:44
Speaker 2: one of the few artists that depicted the industrial revolution
1:36:48
Speaker 2: and scientific revolution in positive terms. All right, we'll only
1:36:52
Speaker 2: twenty nine dollars away from our five hundred dollars goal
1:36:54
Speaker 2: for the second hour. I don't think we're going to
1:36:57
Speaker 2: go into the third hour, so that's a good goal
1:36:59
Speaker 2: to achieve. So twenty nine dollars somebody that's all three
1:37:03
Speaker 2: to ten dollars questions or stickers, Nathan, are you concerned
1:37:07
Speaker 2: that the Iranian culture has been so degraded living under
1:37:10
Speaker 2: theocracy that westernizing Iran won't work and they'll reject freedom.
1:37:14
Speaker 2: I mean again, suddenly there is a large percentage of
1:37:18
Speaker 2: population that is western You saw that with a Goals revolution.
1:37:23
Speaker 2: You see that with the protests a few weeks ago.
1:37:26
Speaker 2: They want westernization. Look, even with everything Iran is not
1:37:31
Speaker 2: being so isolated. Uranians travel. Uranians used to have Internet.
1:37:39
Speaker 2: They know what's going on in the world. They can
1:37:41
Speaker 2: see the world. Nobody in the world, except for North
1:37:44
Speaker 2: Korea is really completely isolated anymore. Globalization, which is a
1:37:49
Speaker 2: good thing, which is really the explotation of Western values
1:37:54
Speaker 2: through communication, internet, TV, movies, is impact them.
1:38:01
Speaker 3: And there's no question.
1:38:03
Speaker 2: In my mind. I hope I'm not wrong. I don't
1:38:05
Speaker 2: think I am. There's no question in my mind that
1:38:09
Speaker 2: if the Ranians are giving a chance, they will build
1:38:13
Speaker 2: a westernized country. Now, again, there's a significant portion of
1:38:19
Speaker 2: the population that is very religious, but that's okay. There's
1:38:21
Speaker 2: a significant portion of the American population it's very religious.
1:38:24
Speaker 2: You know, if you build a liberal, you know, a
1:38:27
Speaker 2: free country, then some people will be religious, and there'll
1:38:30
Speaker 2: be a religious party in the parliament, and there'll be
1:38:32
Speaker 2: debates and arguments. But I do think there's a good
1:38:37
Speaker 2: chance for thriving secular country, a secular government anyone. Richard,
1:38:45
Speaker 2: thanks for the reports. I appreciate it. Richard, thank you
1:38:47
Speaker 2: for the supports. We have met the five hundred dollar goals,
1:38:50
Speaker 2: So thank you, guys. Professor Kracker and Dugan is about
1:38:54
Speaker 2: so much a Putin's philosopher as Caroline Levett is Trump's.
1:39:00
Speaker 2: He's just a regimes marketing guy. I think he's more
1:39:04
Speaker 2: than a regimes marketing.
1:39:05
Speaker 3: Guy, you know.
1:39:07
Speaker 2: I don't know how much of a philosopher of Putin's
1:39:09
Speaker 2: he is. He influences Putin, There's no question, because when
1:39:12
Speaker 2: I hear Putin, I can often hear stuff that Dugan
1:39:16
Speaker 2: is saying, as well as other Russian nationalist philosophers. But
1:39:21
Speaker 2: he is an influential intellectual, not just within Russia but
1:39:25
Speaker 2: among the New rights. There are many on the American right,
1:39:29
Speaker 2: there many on the global rights who viewed Dugin as
1:39:33
Speaker 2: an amazing thinker and influencer. And I think he is.
1:39:38
Speaker 2: I don't think he's just a spokesman. I think then
1:39:41
Speaker 2: underestimates his influence. He is a philosopher for good or
1:39:45
Speaker 2: for ill, all for ill. He's really awful and he's
1:39:51
Speaker 2: had huge impact. Jamie Trump mentioned potential talks with new leader.
1:40:00
Speaker 2: Is that just insane? Shouldn't the regime be removed completely?
1:40:03
Speaker 2: And what would Iranian people reaction if there is a
1:40:05
Speaker 2: deal made? Now? I mean, it is insane, it's horrible,
1:40:08
Speaker 2: it's immoral, it's stupid, it's everything, and the Iranian people
1:40:12
Speaker 2: would be horrified if a deal was made.
1:40:13
Speaker 3: I don't think a deal.
1:40:14
Speaker 2: Will happen, But the very fact that Trump is willing
1:40:17
Speaker 2: to even consider talking to them is horrible and horrific
1:40:21
Speaker 2: and a little scary and shows how unseious he is.
1:40:25
Speaker 2: He's an unseerious person. Roman. What are Dugan's patriotic reforms?
1:40:32
Speaker 2: Zaw Putin? Yeah, I mean he basically wants conscription. He
1:40:37
Speaker 2: wants he wants everybody. He wants a draft to boast
1:40:43
Speaker 2: the Russian army. He wants to use nukes. He believes
1:40:46
Speaker 2: that the Russians he use tactical nukes in Ukraine. He
1:40:51
Speaker 2: wants much more power centralized in the hands of Putin.
1:40:57
Speaker 2: He would like, I think, to see the ranks of
1:40:59
Speaker 2: the oligarchs shrunk and much more concentration of power at
1:41:04
Speaker 2: the top, and more religion, more religion. Ingle. How to
1:41:13
Speaker 2: make the US populations support the war, Well, you have
1:41:15
Speaker 2: to try. I mean, yes, Trump did an eight minute
1:41:19
Speaker 2: kind of talk, but it wasn't a serious talk. It
1:41:21
Speaker 2: wasn't taking into account the skepticism and American people and
1:41:26
Speaker 2: a real argument for why.
1:41:27
Speaker 3: This war was necessary that he has not done. So
1:41:29
Speaker 3: that would be the beginning.
1:41:31
Speaker 2: You're not going to be able to budge unless you
1:41:33
Speaker 2: make an appeal to the American people why this isn't
1:41:35
Speaker 2: their self interest, why their lives and ultimately also their
1:41:39
Speaker 2: economic lives and their physical lives depend on victory in
1:41:43
Speaker 2: this war Roman. Have you heard of the terror attacks
1:41:47
Speaker 2: in Austin. I've heard of something in DC. I don't
1:41:52
Speaker 2: know anything about the DC one, but Austin I talked
1:41:54
Speaker 2: about before, So not clear yet when I looked at
1:41:59
Speaker 2: the use, what actually motivates motivates the DC one? Hell Wolf,
1:42:10
Speaker 2: How will it affect midterm elections? I don't know. It
1:42:14
Speaker 2: depends how well it goes. It's too early to tell.
1:42:21
Speaker 2: Cracket says Dugen is mostly parating Lev Gumiliev Eurasian unity
1:42:26
Speaker 2: under one leader idea. I mean, yes, but it's not
1:42:29
Speaker 2: clear who originated those ideas. And it's also you know,
1:42:33
Speaker 2: that is not the essence of Dugan's philosophy though, that
1:42:35
Speaker 2: what he believes. But he's a whole theory that combines
1:42:39
Speaker 2: postmodernism with what do you call it, a Christian orthodoxy
1:42:47
Speaker 2: and pagan mysticism. And it's a mess, it's a complete disaster.
1:42:51
Speaker 2: But he has a whole philosophy which is influential all
1:42:55
Speaker 2: over the world and a critique of liberalism. Now it's
1:42:59
Speaker 2: true that he's not the only philosopher in Russia. With
1:43:03
Speaker 2: crazy nationalist ideas that influenced Putin. But he is certainly
1:43:07
Speaker 2: one of those people, and he has real influence on
1:43:12
Speaker 2: a global skill. Jennifer is Newsome most likely twenty twenty
1:43:19
Speaker 2: candidate for Dems? I think right now, yes, But it's
1:43:23
Speaker 2: really hard to tell because California is such a mess.
1:43:26
Speaker 2: I think a lot of Democrats are going to say,
1:43:28
Speaker 2: we really shouldn't nominate somebody who's run a state into
1:43:32
Speaker 2: the ground the way he ran California into the ground.
1:43:35
Speaker 2: But we'll see if they're sane enough. You know, Republicans
1:43:38
Speaker 2: were not saying enough to dismiss Trump. I'm not sure
1:43:41
Speaker 2: Democrats are sane enough to dismiss Newsom. Steven on page
1:43:45
Speaker 2: twenty five Peacock rights quote facts of reality must be
1:43:49
Speaker 2: greeted by a silent nod of acquiescence, So he says,
1:43:55
Speaker 2: I thought facts should be greeted by a child's sense
1:43:58
Speaker 2: of pleasure in identifying reality. Well, I think it depends
1:44:04
Speaker 2: on the facts of reality, right, I mean, partially. What
1:44:08
Speaker 2: he is saying is you have to differentiate between the
1:44:11
Speaker 2: man made and the metaphysical. You can't get angry at
1:44:13
Speaker 2: the man made the metaphysical. So some things should be
1:44:18
Speaker 2: greeted with pleasure, but other things. Let's say a hurricane
1:44:23
Speaker 2: has just wiped out your village. You don't greet that
1:44:26
Speaker 2: with a child sense of pleasure. You greet that with
1:44:29
Speaker 2: a silent nod of acquiescence. So the point is that
1:44:33
Speaker 2: reality is what it is, and you have to accept
1:44:35
Speaker 2: it good and you know, good and ill, positive and negative.
1:44:39
Speaker 2: And I you know, I don't know if that's the
1:44:42
Speaker 2: only thing he writes about reality, I doubt it. I'd
1:44:45
Speaker 2: have to I don't have a copy of Opall with me.
1:44:46
Speaker 2: I'd have to look, Jamie, how can UK France be
1:44:50
Speaker 2: opposed to run strike? Even Mark Connie has enough sense
1:44:55
Speaker 2: to support. Yeah, Well, it's UK and France and they've
1:44:59
Speaker 2: shifted today. Yesterday they were opposed that Today they seem
1:45:01
Speaker 2: much more positive because Iran has threatened attacked UK and
1:45:07
Speaker 2: French assets in the region. They're whims They're just whimps,
1:45:13
Speaker 2: and they've got a large Muslim population in both countries. Linda,
1:45:17
Speaker 2: thank you Iran.
1:45:18
Speaker 3: We appreciate you. Thank you, Linda.
1:45:20
Speaker 2: I appreciate that Jonatan says, does this desire for peace
1:45:24
Speaker 2: by Americans and European people with Iatola's feel similar to
1:45:27
Speaker 2: the Chamberlain Hitler peace agreement in nineteen thirty eight. Yes,
1:45:31
Speaker 2: and it's felt similar for the last forty years. You know,
1:45:36
Speaker 2: nothing's really changed. We've been appeasing the Ranian regime since
1:45:40
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine, in the same way Chamberlain appeaced Hitler.
1:45:44
Speaker 2: Sandy said, thank you for all you do. I appreciate that,
1:45:47
Speaker 2: Sandy Upton. I think the last question, what does the
1:45:51
Speaker 2: negative reaction of the left and right say about their worldview?
1:45:55
Speaker 2: Is there anything that could make them happy? Taking out
1:45:59
Speaker 2: Ramini is the first unambiguously absolute good geopolitical event in
1:46:03
Speaker 2: my lifetime. In my life, well, the fall of the
1:46:06
Speaker 2: building wall, I don't know. If you are alive then
1:46:08
Speaker 2: I think you will would be another one. But what
1:46:13
Speaker 2: would make them what? What would what?
1:46:15
Speaker 3: The left and right? Where?
1:46:17
Speaker 2: What is this?
1:46:17
Speaker 3: What is the worldview?
1:46:19
Speaker 2: The worldview is a deep skepticism of the West, of
1:46:22
Speaker 2: Western values, a deep respect for on the right, for religion,
1:46:29
Speaker 2: on the left, for the other the and the the
1:46:33
Speaker 2: non Western cultures both share deep, deep distrust of anything
1:46:40
Speaker 2: our politicians do which is somewhat based in reality, and
1:46:45
Speaker 2: they both seem to hate Israel as part of the
1:46:47
Speaker 2: hatred of the West, and and and and hate Jews
1:46:51
Speaker 2: as part of all of that.
1:46:55
Speaker 3: Uh yes, so, Uh.
1:47:02
Speaker 2: It's I that is. I think their worldview it's a
1:47:05
Speaker 2: it's a it's a mystical anti reality and suddenly anti
1:47:11
Speaker 2: Western worldview. Is there anything that can make them happy?
1:47:15
Speaker 2: Probably not. I you know, the the poll numbers will
1:47:20
Speaker 2: improve dramatically if there's victory and regime change. You know, winners,
1:47:26
Speaker 2: I winners are popular. Winner is the popular. But I
1:47:30
Speaker 2: agree taking out how many is great, it's only the beginning.
1:47:34
Speaker 2: The fall of the regime would be the the the
1:47:37
Speaker 2: most imporant geopolitical event potentially if my lifetime. Uh, although
1:47:41
Speaker 2: the it competes with the fall of the Berlin Wall.
1:47:45
Speaker 2: Val un. Joseph Wrights, Yes, it's Joseph right Adobe you
1:47:50
Speaker 2: mean the Enlightenment painter. Yes, I adore his painting, simply
1:47:53
Speaker 2: for the cover Richard Holmes used for the Age of
1:47:56
Speaker 2: Wonder A wonderful book?
1:47:58
Speaker 3: Ever read it?
1:47:59
Speaker 2: Uh? Yes, I think so. And that's a painting that's
1:48:03
Speaker 2: in the National Gallery, I believe. And yeah, so if
1:48:08
Speaker 2: you like that cover, you should check out the the
1:48:11
Speaker 2: the exhibit at the National Gallery in London. If you're
1:48:13
Speaker 2: ever here. But yes, he he painted the enlightenment, He
1:48:18
Speaker 2: painted the scientifical evolution, He painted the industrial evolution in
1:48:21
Speaker 2: positive ways, in positive ways. Somebody says how many attack
1:48:31
Speaker 2: was a cowardly act, right in negotiations. You can't believe
1:48:34
Speaker 2: it would these criminals. That's the funniest thing I've ever heard.
1:48:39
Speaker 2: I mean, the cowardly act was negotiating with how many?
1:48:42
Speaker 2: How many has never seen an agreement that he would
1:48:44
Speaker 2: abide by. He was a he He's always lied, he's
1:48:48
Speaker 2: always deceived. Uh. How many has dedicated the destruction of
1:48:51
Speaker 2: the West. Why the West would deal with him? Why?
1:48:54
Speaker 1: Uh?
1:48:55
Speaker 2: Chanting death to America every Friday leads you to one
1:48:58
Speaker 2: to negotiate with the people who want you dead. The betrayal,
1:49:01
Speaker 2: the cowardice, is negotiating with a bastard like that. He
1:49:05
Speaker 2: should have been killed decades ago. His predecessor, Harmony is
1:49:11
Speaker 2: the one who should have been killed in nineteen seventy nine,
1:49:14
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty, certainly in nineteen eighty three, after the killing
1:49:16
Speaker 2: of the Marines. So no, it's not killing Romenie was
1:49:20
Speaker 2: an act of unbelievable heroism. It is the negotiating with
1:49:26
Speaker 2: him which was the act of cowardice. All right, guys,
1:49:30
Speaker 2: thank you, thank you for the support, Thanks to all
1:49:31
Speaker 2: the super chatters.
1:49:32
Speaker 3: I will see you, I hope tomorrow.
1:49:34
Speaker 2: I'm not sure though, it depends on where they can
1:49:37
Speaker 2: squeeze something in the early afternoon. Probably be a short show.
1:49:41
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to catch a train tomorrow to Exeter
1:49:44
Speaker 2: when I'm giving a talk a debate, I think I
1:49:47
Speaker 2: think I'm debating something. And then after Durham the next
1:49:51
Speaker 2: day in Oxford, the following day in Geneva, not Geneva,
1:49:56
Speaker 2: Zurich on Thursday, Thursday night in Zurich. All right, I
1:50:02
Speaker 2: will uh. He says the West a mafia, not a democracy.
1:50:07
Speaker 2: If the West is a mafia, what is Iran? The
1:50:09
Speaker 2: Irania Geni mafia on steroids. I mean, I'm critical of
1:50:13
Speaker 2: the West. The West is terrible, but Iran is a
1:50:17
Speaker 2: thousand times worse. However bad you think the West is,
1:50:20
Speaker 2: Iran is a thousand times worse. Anyway, I shouldn't. I
1:50:24
Speaker 2: shouldn't fight with the with the people left over by everybody,
1:50:27
Speaker 2: have a great uh Sunday and the great beginning of
1:50:31
Speaker 2: a week by everybody,