Latest / FDD Morning Brief / A broke and belligerent Iran | feat. Norman Roule

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A broke and belligerent Iran | feat. Norman Roule · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's Friday May 8th, the multi-front war in the Middle East is now 944 days old.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Jonathan Schanzer, welcome back to the FDD Morning Brief First.
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Just in case you were worried about me for the last few episodes, no need, no war zones for me this time.
• 0:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: I was in Italy where the only blockade was the line outside of the Jolato shop.
• 0:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: Second, a bit of housekeeping special thanks to the guest hosts and interviewers, not to mention the producers who kept the show going while I was away.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Third, it's been a while since I weighed in on the state of this war, so here it goes.
• 0:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: I hear lots of voices out there calling for a quick and easy end to this war, and I got to ask, have any of them ever read a single history book because most wars don't end quickly or easily.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: So here we are over two months later, the bombing has stopped, but the state of Hormuz is still blocked.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: The price of gasoline is high and it could go higher.
• 1:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Donald Trump has some tough choices to make.
• 1:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: He could start bombing again, but here's the rub.
• 1:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Whatever is left to bomb is probably not worth the cost of our bombs.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: We want to keep those munitions ready for other possible conflicts.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: and we need to replenish.
• 1:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: We could just quit the war, but that would have consequences too, the Chinese and the Russians would take it as a sign that were weak in getting weaker.
• 1:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: That would mean more conflict on the edge of Europe not to mention Taiwan.
• 1:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: The way through this thing could be the economic war already underway, a blockade of Iranian shipping, more sanctions, more tariffs.
• 1:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Basically, we have to heap economic pain on this regime.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this a silver bullet?
• 1:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, the price of oil will likely remain relatively high, and the regime will try to go to us into making mistakes.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: We can't take the bait.
• 1:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: We can defeat this nasty regime, but it will not be quick or easy.
• 1:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: But then again, nobody would have a brain ever said it had to be.
• 1:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's time to grind this thing out.
• 2:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: If we do that, we can finally relegate this nasty regime to the ash heap of history.
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do we do some headlines?
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is that even a serious question?
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Of course we should.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's get down to it.
• 2:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Headline one, the Iranian regime in the United States traded fire in the state of Hormuz last night had began with Iran firing missiles and drones at three US naval vessels and the US striking a range of Iranian targets and response.
• 2:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: But things have not spiraled out of control.
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: The president says the ceasefire is still in place.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: In fact, Trump called the attacks a love tap.
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Interesting choice of words, this comes as the regime is said to be establishing a toll booth, a license and tax vessels, transiting the straight, which I remind you is in international waterways.
• 2:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: So yes, the entire thing only reinforces that the regime is violating international law.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: There is a measure at the UN to condemn this illegal activity, but as we all know, that won't amount too much, because yes, the UN is a weapon of mass discussion.
• 2:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: headline too the economic war continues the Trump administration issued another batch of sanctions as part of operation economic fury this go around the focuses on Iraq the big ticket target is Iraq's deputy minister of oil treasury sanction for helping to facilitate oil smuggling schemes that enrich Iran and its Iraqi proxies treasury also sanctioned the three leaders of Iran
• 3:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: headline three reports yesterday suggested Saudi Arabia and Kuwait blocked the United States from using their bases and their airspace after President Trump announced Project Freedom.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: This was the U.S. Operation Restore Freedom of Navigation in the state of Hormuz that started and stopped within 36 hours.
• 3:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Saudis and Kuwaitis lifted those restrictions yesterday.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: And now it seems that Project Freedom is back on track but after the fire fight last night
• 3:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Headline 4, Iranian President Masood Pizeshki on claims he met with Supreme Leader, Ayatola Mujtaba Khomeini, but it's unclear if and when that meeting took place, but it was supposed to last for two and a half hours.
• 4:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Mujtaba replaced his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khomeini.
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: who was killed on the first day of Operation Epic Fury.
• 4:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Mochfabble was wounded in that opening salvo, and hasn't been seen in public since, other than in cardboard form, reports suggest that Mochfabble could still be in a vegetative state the Iranian version of weekend at Bernie's continues.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: And headline five, and Israeli strike in Gaza killed the son of recently anointed,
• 4:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Hamas Chief Khalil Al-Hayah, his name is or actually was, Azam Al-Hayah and Hamas confirmed his death yesterday.
• 4:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: Khalil Al-Hayah has now lost four sons.
• 4:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: One of them was killed in the Israeli strike on Hamas in the terror sponsoring state of Qatar.
• 4:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Palestinian media makes Khalil out to be a hero for sacrificing his sons.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'd argue that he deliberately groomed them
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, time to bring on today's main event, Norman Rules, spent 34 years at the CIA.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's a lot of time, sir.
• 5:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: And nearly a decade, as Washington senior, most Iran official at the Office of Director of National Intelligence, ODNI, he was the person responsible for making sure that multiple U.S. presidents knew exactly what the Islamic Republic was up to.
• 5:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Since leaving government, he's worked as a consultant on golf security and energy issues, and he maintains close ties with senior officials across.
• 5:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: the goal states.
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, with the future of Iran and the region and open question, there is no better time to have them on, so without further ado, let's get to it.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to the program, Norm rule.
• 5:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
• 5:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good morning.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's start with what happened last night.
• 5:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: What is the regime strategy here?
• 5:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they keep attacking us when we are not attacking them any longer.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: It looks like they're just poking the bear.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: What are they up
• 5:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the regime is looking to prod the U.S. into making mistakes and the Trump administration is showing through an exceptional military performance that we're not going to be doing so.
• 6:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Our response was proportional.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was calculated.
• 6:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was crisp.
• 6:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was delivered with great skill and the President responded with a rhetoric to show that we will not be drawn into.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: a fight that boasts ends the diplomacy but also ends provides the escalatory ladder to the running gives it to a running decision making.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: The straight up removes simply cannot be put into a running enhanced.
• 6:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I thought you wrote it in comments.
• 6:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're great.
• 6:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would add only one thing.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Your runnings are also claiming the waters of the UAE and the Almighty's as well.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is just outrageous.
• 6:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is outrageous, but I mean, let me just maybe push you a little further on this.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: When they try to escalate, right?
• 7:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's going to lead to more damage to the regime.
• 7:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: I guess it might lead to us expanding munitions, but what do they gain from this right now?
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is it just dragging this out and discrediting the United States through some kind of a
• 7:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, it is, but it's also demonstrating to their proxies and to the hardline element in their country that they're standing up to the United States.
• 7:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's demonstrating to elements of the region that the U.S. isn't able to defeat them.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's demonstrating they think to parts of the world that they're able to stand up to the United States.
• 7:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And to the extent that that's valid, it may be true, but it's not relevant in the long term of this fight.
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: United States.
• 7:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are full approaches to how we're going to handle straight up for moves, and the president won't be dissuaded from that strategy.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, got it.
• 7:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you're saying that we've got the right response.
• 7:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if you can maybe just articulate it a little bit more.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: The idea is contain the crisis, try to keep the straight open, keep diplomacy in play.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is that basically the strategy?
• 8:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, it is, but also economic pressure through the blockade.
• 8:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Economic pressure are recognizing that what we're doing is what is dealing with inflation.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's cutting off.
• 8:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Straight up for moves and the exceptional work that's been done by FTD and I just got a praise with me odd is done to RFTD because there's nothing more that the intelligence community loves than hard facts Because Washington has filled with opinions, but me odds work is just rich with
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: data and facts, and people can disagree with views, but it's really hard to disagree with the fact, and what is happening to Iran's oil sector is just an inexorable punishing decline.
• 8:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: And by maintaining that pressure, we're avoiding, in essence, a conflict that damages not only the GCC, but the world economy through that by taking this escalatory ladder into a direction that would, would be much more costly.
• 9:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the president is doing something that is
• 9:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: very mature.
• 9:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: I like to hear that.
• 9:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, let's talk about this economic core for a minute.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: And by the way, thank you for the praise for me, Admoleki, former OFAC official.
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now at FED, he's been doing stellar work.
• 9:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: We've already had him on the program.
• 9:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: We should have him on again, because what he's put now is tremendous.
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: But so let's talk about this economic war that he's been kind of chronicling and advising on.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: I understand that the regime may have about a week before it needs to cap the wells and we've all been talking about what that would mean, how do you think that plays out?
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so they they lose more of that income.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: They lose more hard cash.
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: They lose more trade.
• 9:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do they just pass on the pain to their own people or does this begin to trickle down into other parts of the regime?
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, both happens, but you've also got oil managers within the regime, or members of the well sector within the regime, turning to the leadership saying, look, we're here to sustain the regime for the next 30 to 40 years.
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I need to tell you, you've just made that a lot harder by what you're doing.
• 10:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you come to a deal, I can deliver revenue for the next 30 to 40 years.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you don't, let me tell you what you're going to be losing.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: because remember the regime needs money for two things right now.
• 10:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: First they need to do something to prevent unrest in the very near term and then they need money to sustain the regime through a generation of very difficult years to come and what is happening to do oil sector right now will have long term ramifications that undermines the strength of the Islamic Republic.
• 10:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's really a powerful, corrosive activity that is taking place in the next couple of weeks and the U.S. administration knows this.
• 10:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if I can add a further, the impact of the blockade and the impact of the war has been much greater than the regime will ever let the world know.
• 11:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they had a rock sheet going around putting on the tough face, but the regime's whole job is to deny the world bad information.
• 11:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: first to its own people, and then to the region itself, because they don't want to show how weak its weak things are with employment, with inflation, with all of the currency collapse, and it's just going to get worse this time, those by.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, the economy was already in the toilet before this thing broke out, right?
• 11:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: And now I understand they've lost with the damage incurred by the bombing, the strikes that took place for that first month or so.
• 11:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: My understanding is they lost essentially a total years worth of GDP in terms of industry and weapons and infrastructure, not to mention income.
• 11:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I want to just press you on one thing in particular.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if I've heard a really good explanation of, what does that mean?
• 12:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: In other words, how long does the oil infrastructure stay offline if you stop production?
• 12:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: How long does that in, like, will the regime incur damage?
• 12:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this something that, I mean, it's obviously not something that you can just turn back on.
• 12:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's not just an easy spigot, right?
• 12:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's correct.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'll be up front.
• 12:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'll give you the answer.
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Policy makers hate, okay?
• 12:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the answer is it depends.
• 12:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because it does depend on the field, it depends upon the technology you're using, it depends upon the geology at the time.
• 12:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: But basically, water is a very damaging element in oil wells.
• 12:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And water will start to
• 12:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: to in essence fill some of the rock and enter some of the rock and and again the nature of the technology that's going to be employed and the rock and the location it's going to be very complicated and costly for the Iranians in some cases impossible for the Iranians to restore some of these fields and in addition natural gas is also a problem for the Iranians because they have less storage less capacity of natural gas around so I think there's even another
• 13:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: that me, I can expand, is work on to talk about what's happening to natural gas inside everyone.
• 13:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: So there are powerful, powerful problems that the Iranians are undergoing right now that in essence the regime can't get around in the next few weeks.
• 13:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Secretary Bessant has been very, very clear in putting this forward.
• 13:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I do suggest that people listen to the Secretary statements in this regard.
• 13:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think that that's in the Secretary of the Treasury is probably going to take on more and more of a prominent role here as this economic war plays out.
• 13:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Economic fury, I think, is I don't think folks understand the extent of the damage, but let me ask you when we talk about the economic damage from capping the wells.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I think there's been an effort to try to preserve the oil infrastructure for the Iranian people, let's say if the regime finally falls, this has always been the intent, right?
• 14:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: So when you cap the wells and you start blocking the the ability of,
• 14:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: the people of Iran or the government of Iran, whoever controls it, how long before that is back online?
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this something that we're ruining in perpetuity or is this something that can be fixed if the right consultants and companies come in to try to get things back online?
• 14:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: were back to it depend because it depends when the Iranians make the decision on when to make a concession as well as were back to the particular fields and how much how many which wells were turned off of turned off for how long and what storage was undertaken related to those particular wells and what technology is used.
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: But again, the Iran, this is in the Iranian court, and the administration has been very careful and very clear about preserving that capacity for the Iranian people.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at the attacks that were done on a hard island, there was a tremendous amount of work to make sure that military sites were taken out with pinpoint accuracy.
• 15:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: but oil facilities were protected.
• 15:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you're looking at an administration that obviously had very good intelligence, very good military capacity, and try to preserve something for the Iranian people while demonstrating we could have done something much worse if we wanted to but we didn't.
• 15:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think that's got to be pretty heartening for the Iranian people, at least those that are aware, because as we all know now, it's been I think 70 days since the most recent internet blackout, and so there's not a lot of good information flowing among the people of Iran.
• 15:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: If I can't, I just want to ask you, and this is, I'm sure another answer that will probably start with it depends.
• 15:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: But what can you tell us about the possibility of a popular revolt or dare I say a revolution in Iran?
• 15:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: How does one gain that out?
• 15:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that is a goal, I think.
• 16:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: of, it certainly is for the Israelis.
• 16:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think quietly it is for the administration.
• 16:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: If even if they don't want to say regime change out loud, because it's a dirty term in Washington, we don't say such things.
• 16:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that is, I think, part of what we're hoping for here in any way.
• 16:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so what, what are the odds here that the people come together,
• 16:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they lost 40,000 people a couple of months ago in a mass murder carried out by the regime.
• 16:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: They've got to be chasin, but they also have to be encouraged by what they're seeing and outraged by the fact that this regime is, I mean, it's bringing ruin to the country.
• 16:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: of Jonathan, let me, let me disappoint you.
• 16:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: The answer is it's likely inevitable.
• 16:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: And even before the conflict, the regime was facing a situation where every year from 2017, you had a series of nationwide unrest that were driven
• 16:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: by economic and social issues that had a considerable similarity.
• 16:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: And what where is the regime would do its best to take apart the nascent organizational opposition that really prevented an opposition from appearing in a sort of a formal way.
• 17:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: It could not prevent the unrest from appearing in every city to include regime's strongholds every year.
• 17:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, it
• 17:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: the the result is the intensity of that opposition became so so powerful that every year it the violence that was employed to put it down became greater and greater until this year we had thousands killed prior to this prior to this conflict thousands of people appeared and the regime was unable to stop this and it is inevitable.
• 17:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: that's such an uprising would occur again.
• 17:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have the collapse of the currency, which continue to collapse further.
• 17:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's now below 1.6, it's virtually worthless and will continue to be to be worthless.
• 17:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: But inflation was 72% for food, beverages, and base and tobacco, basic commodities in Iran.
• 18:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you had a situation prior to this conflict where nationwide unrest that was possible to overthrow the regime was going to happen.
• 18:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, after this unrest where the United States and Israel provided a type of support that has never been given to any country before to take apart the oppressive architecture of a country and to degrade it, is now, once the Iranian people have a chance to come out and see this,
• 18:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: are still going to face all of those conditions.
• 18:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're in the Iranian government, you must have some sort of economic jumpstart of the economy, or you face the disalmal certainty of nationwide unrest.
• 18:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you really have this likelihood of another bloodbath, which in and of itself provokes this perpetual motion of an unhappy population turning upon the government.
• 18:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, I got to say, I would love to see the uprising.
• 19:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm a little concerned about, you know, the interior of the country being able to defend itself and fight.
• 19:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know how that happens, but I guess we're going to wait and see if there are covert means to get them the weapons and the intelligence and the communications and the cash and all the things that they need in order to do this.
• 19:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, and that actually gets me to kind of I guess a strategic question that maybe isn't getting asked enough out loud and maybe there's a good reason for that.
• 19:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are there other ways that the United States can weaken the regime that we've not explored?
• 19:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, can we get creative here?
• 19:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I know that these things take some time and I don't know how much time we have or how much we've already put into this, but what are some of the things that can be done beyond just bombing them or keeping this blockade on.
• 19:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what's what's out there for us.
• 19:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the most important thing that you that could who had damaged the regime is weakening the Chinese commercial support and economic support for the regime.
• 20:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is sustaining the regime's psychologically.
• 20:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is sustaining the regime's future economically.
• 20:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, FDD, United against nuclear Iran and organization that I advise.
• 20:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: has done great reporting on this, but you've got a number of different pieces of evidence and the president is no doubt going to raise this with President Xi.
• 20:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're looking at other aspects that you've alluded to that I won't necessarily comment on, it does take time.
• 20:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you're looking at the president of the United States in essence dealing with a situation where
• 20:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's just say half two have been built by a previous administration and I'll just leave it at that.
• 20:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to have to deal with whatever he's he would capability he has in front of him.
• 20:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Interesting in these partisan times.
• 21:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think I understand what you're getting at.
• 21:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, you mentioned China and this is my last question for you here.
• 21:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: How does this all play out in about one week's time when Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet?
• 21:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know this was already postponed.
• 21:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was postponed because of the war when it erupted in late February.
• 21:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were supposed to meet like, I don't know, a month later.
• 21:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think Donald Trump had hoped to bring an end to the war and maybe some sort of a fatal complete two Xi Jinping and the sort of, uh, have this sort of triumphant meeting with him where he showed him the full
• 21:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: We just haven't won.
• 21:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this advantage Xi Jinping?
• 21:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is it Advantage Donald Trump?
• 21:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is it Advantage Needer?
• 21:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: How do you see this playing out?
• 21:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, as you stated, if you're opening comments, wars last a long time.
• 21:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: So unless there's going to be a collapse of the regime very quickly, wars will take a while.
• 22:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's unfortunate.
• 22:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not trying to be flipping it in any way, but that's a reality.
• 22:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the U.S. Iran talks will matter mainly to Beijing as a risk management file.
• 22:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: That won't be as the summer's organizing principle.
• 22:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: What Washington will seek is to, in essence, make sure that we are not going to be seen as negotiating from a position of over-extension.
• 22:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's important, I think, to recognize that for China and Russia, they don't want necessarily Iran to win.
• 22:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: but they want to see that Iran survives and that Iran bleeds the United States.
• 22:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the United States has done along with FDD and you want another organization to the high-lettered over the years that China has provided missile precursor assistance.
• 22:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: technology, they have provided economic support, the missiles that have pounded the Gulf Cooperation Council have Chinese chemicals, Chinese technology, and this is something the president, I suspect, will raise at the same time, the president has many other issues.
• 23:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if there's a challenge the president faces in China, he will have North Korea, Russia, trade, a lot of issues to talk about.
• 23:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think managing this issue and making sure it doesn't escalate and shape the damage the US relationship is going to be important, but each side is going to want to make sure that it doesn't make the conflict any worse.
• 23:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: But in the end of the day,
• 23:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: of supporting the Iranian economy.
• 23:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: And importantly, ensuring that China does not provide any technological assistance to Iran's drone program is critical.
• 23:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and those drone motors, I understand most of them are coming from China.
• 23:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I have them like inductors.
• 23:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: semi-conductors, the chips that end up in Iranian drones, just as the chips that end up in Russian drones.
• 24:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: We don't want that technology reaching Iran because that could be quite a significant complication for a defense of the region.
• 24:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, we'll leave it there.
• 24:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you,
• 24:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, in the immortal words of porcupig, that's all folks, well, until Monday, at least.
• 24:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: As always, if you're looking for something smart to read over the weekend, please visit our website, that'sftd.org, or if your attention span is a bit short, feel free to scroll through those social media channels for videos and graphics that summarize our work in an ADHD friendly package.
• 24:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: And yes, I do encourage you as always to give generously to this hardworking think tank at fdd.org slash invest.
• 24:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I have a great Friday.
• 24:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Have a great weekend.
• 25:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: See you first thing Monday.
• 25:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Until then, I'm Jonathan Shanzer signing off for fdd.