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Tesla has lost the EV crown to a Chinese company · Elon Musk Podcast

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  Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025.
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  The number is down 9% from the year before, and it marks the
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  second consecutive year of declining sales for the company
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  that built the electric vehicle market.
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  BYD, the Chinese automaker that Elon Musk once dismissed as not
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  a serious competitor, sold 2.26 million EV in the same period.
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  Now, for the first time a year, Tesla is no longer the world's
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  largest electric vehicle maker. The company that rewrote the
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  rules of the auto industry just lost its crown.
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  Now, the question now is whether that matters, or whether Musk
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  has already moved on to something completely new.
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  And the fourth quarter was the weakest since 2022 for Tesla.
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  Deliveries came in at 418,227, which missed Wall Street's
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  already lowered estimates of 440,000.
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  Tesla had even published its own company compiled consensus on
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  its investor relations website a few days before the report,
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  setting expectations at 422,000. 850 vehicles.
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  They came in about 4600 units short of their own number.
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  Now one is energy storage. For Tesla.
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  They deployed a record 14.2 GW hours in quarter 4 alone and
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  46.7 GW hours for the full year. This is a 48% jump from 2024.
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  We're going to talk about how the federal tax credit
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  expiration hit Tesla harder than expected, how the Musk backlash
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  played out in Europe and parts of the US, and why investors do
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  not seem to care about any of this in right into that after
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  this short break. Now, Tesla just posted its
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  second straight year of declining vehicle sales while
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  claiming the future of the company lies somewhere else.
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  Musk has spent much of 2025 telling shareholders that car
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  sales are not the metric that matters anymore.
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  Robotaxis, humanoid robots, and energy storage are supposed to
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  be the growth engines now. The delivery numbers that
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  dropped on July 2nd suggest that the transition is happening
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  whether the market is ready or not.
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  The stock dropped 2.59% on the day of the report.
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  That is a muted reaction from Miss this Size Now.
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  The $7500 federal E tax credit expired on September 30th, 2025.
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  That deadline pulled a wave of purchases into the third
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  quarter. People wanted to get in on a
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  good price and quarter four paid that price.
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  Tesla's quarter 3 deliveries had jumped 7.4% year over year.
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  Then Q4 dropped 15.6%. That whiplash explains part of
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  the myth Cox Auto projects. The fourth quarter USE sales
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  across all brands were about 46% lower than the third quarter.
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  As a disclaimer, I used to work for Cox Auto and yeah, so I
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  have, I have no bias, but I just want to let you guys know.
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  Now, the entire industry felt the sales decline.
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  Tesla felt that more than most because the company had no other
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  incentives to offer. The competition had dealer
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  discounts, 0% financing, and manufacturer rebates.
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  Now, Tesla had a price cut in October, though, just wasn't
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  enough though. You were PN registrations for
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  Tesla fell 39% in the 1st 11 months of 2025.
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  BYD registrations in Europe rose 240% over the same period.
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  That's a huge Tesla lost nearly four out of every 10 customers
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  in Europe. Well, BYD more than tripled
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  that. Mind you, BYD vehicles are not
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  sold in the United States, but they're in Australia, Southeast
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  Asia and South America and they're surging.
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  The pricing is generally lower than Tesla's and their product
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  lineup is expanding faster and they have some features that are
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  better than Tesla in my opinion. Now BYD's global expansion has
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  been one of the fastest in auto history.
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  They look what Tesla was doing and they made it better.
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  Musk's political activity made things harder for Tesla.
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  He spent the first quarter 2025 leading DOGE to slash the
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  federal workforce. He endorsed Germany's far right
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  Afd party, He backed British anti immigration activist Tommy
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  Robinson. He called for abolishing the
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  European Union. Protests broke out at Tesla
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  facilities. Sales slumped in markets where
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  those statements landed poorly. And Musk stepped back from DOGE
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  in May, and the move was widely seen as an attempt to reassure
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  investors. Now, the damage in Europe and
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  parts of the US has not fully reversed yet.
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  Some prospective customers simply will not buy a Tesla
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  anymore. It's a real demand destruction,
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  and it does not show up in a spreadsheet until the quarter is
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  over. You know what else is
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  destructive? Not you.
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  So I've been digging through the analytics of the show and notice
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  that 37% of you have followed the channel.
• 4:10
  Thanks for helping me grow this place.
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  I think it's amazing that you're here.
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  And for you, I am forever grateful.
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  Now the other 67 or 63% of you have not hit the followers
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  subscribe button yet. And I will tell you why you I've
• 4:24
  been an independent journalist covering Elon Musk since the
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  beginning of space. I was in one of the first Test
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  Tesla vehicles in California and I thought this was the future of
• 4:36
  everything. I've been following Musk since
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  pretty much day one. And I've been at this for six or
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  seven years now. And I'm going to continue doing
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  this as an independent journalist for the next 10
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  years. And all I ask from you for the
• 4:47
  next 10 years of my life is one second of yours to hit the
• 4:51
  follower subscribe button. It helps out the show more than
• 4:54
  you would imagine. I'm extremely grateful for you
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  and I'm blessed to have you right here, right now and in
• 4:58
  this community. So thank you for doing that.
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  Now let's talk about some China stuff.
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  Tesla's Giga Shanghai posted 97,171 wholesale units in this,
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  which was 3.6% higher than the same month last year and the
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  second best month in the factory's history.
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  It's a strong finish still. Full year China sales came in at
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  851, 1732 units, down 7.08% from 2024.
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  The Model Y change over in early 2025 disrupted production and
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  competition in the domestic Chinese market is brutal.
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  BYD dominates there, and a dozen other Chinese brands are
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  fighting for the rest of the pie.
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  Xpang delivered 429,000 vehicles in 2025, up 126% from the year
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  before. Li Auto delivered 1.5 million
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  cumulative vehicles and is still accelerating.
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  Tesla is holding ground in China, but it's not gaining
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  ground. And here's a detail that does
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  not fit the doom narrative. Though I guess some more some
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  positive things. Tesla remained the top car brand
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  in Norway for the 5th consecutive year.
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  The company registered 34,385 vehicles in 2025 which give it a
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  19.1% market share and the Model Y alone accounted for 15.4% of
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  all cars sold in Norway last year.
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  One in every five car in Norway. The new ones was a Tesla.
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  Volkswagen came in second with 13.3%, Volvo came in 3rd 7.8%.
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  Norway finished 2025 with 95.9% of all new vehicle registrations
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  being ease, which is record. That is the most easy forward
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  market in the world and Tesla still won it.
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  That suggests the Tesla brand is not broken everywhere in the
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  world, just some places. So to battle that, Tesla
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  launched some stripped down version of the Model Y and Model
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  3 in October of 2025. The new Model Y standard starts
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  just under 40,000. The cheaper Model 3 standard is
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  under 37,000. Now, those prices are supposed
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  to help Tesla compete with Chinese models in Europe and
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  Asia, but Q4 was the first quarter with those vehicles in
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  them. It's too early to say whether
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  they're working. And the new Model Y is available
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  with 0% financing through January 2026, which suggests
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  Tesla is willing to sacrifice margin to move those new models.
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  It's a defensive play. They're going to do that for a
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  little while, then they're going to take it away from US.
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  Now. The stock finished 2025 up
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  roughly 11%. Doesn't make sense if you're
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  looking at just car sales. It makes more sense if you
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  believe what Musk is selling. Investors are betting on Cyber
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  Cab, the dedicated robotaxi with no steering wheel and no pedals.
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  Tesla confirmed in late December the production has started ahead
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  of volume manufacturing April 2026 at Gigafactory Texas.
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  Prototypes have been spotted testing on public roads in
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  downtown Austin, some with temporary steering wheels for
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  entering validation. And the robotaxi service itself
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  is already live in Austin using a fleet of self driving model
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  Watt. Tesla is also planning to expand
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  the service of San Francisco and eventually Europe, though Musk
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  has acknowledged that European regulations will require a
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  mountain of paperwork. The energy storage business is
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  growing faster than the cars ever did.
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  Tesla deployed 46.7 GW hours in 2025, up from 31.4 GW hours in
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  2024. Now a GW hour is a unit of
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  energy storage capacity. And for context, one GW hour can
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  power roughly 100,000 homes for about 10 hours.
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  Tesla is building utility scale battery projects for grid
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  stabilization around the world and the demand is very high.
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  It's outpacing their supply. If you're an investor looking
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  for a growth story, this is the one that has actual numbers
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  behind it. Car delivery are falling, but
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  energy deployments are climate. And the begapack business is not
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  just a side hustle for Elon Musk anymore.
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  That was another thing we have to talk about.
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  The Delaware Supreme Court in December reversed a lower court
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  ruling and stated Musk's $55 billion pay package from 2018
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  that had been frozen for years in a legal dispute.
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  The reversal was a significant win for Musk personally and
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  removed a cloud that had been hanging over his relationship
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  with the Tesla board. Teslas directors also approved a
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  new pay package in November 2025, one that could be worth
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  nearly a trillion dollars if Musk hits aggressive performance
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  targets. Shareholders voted yes, and the
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  bet is that Musk will take Tesla to a $7 trillion valuation.
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  That's roughly five times its current market cap.
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  So the math's pretty good. Tesla sold fewer cars for the
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  second year in a row. It's OK BYD is now the biggest
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  EV maker in the world. They they've beaten Tesla.
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  Now Europe is slipping away from Tesla. the US tax credit is
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  gone, but Tesla's stock is up. Its energy business is booming.
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  Cyber cap production is ramping. And Musk just got his pay
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  package back. Now, whether that pivot works
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  depends on whether Elon Musk can deliver those robo taxis at
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  scale before the car business shrinks too far to fund that
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  bet. I want to take you back a little
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  while. Do you remember when Elon Musk
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  said anybody with a Tesla could rent it out during downtime?
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  He was talking about when you're at work, what does your car do?
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  It just sits in an empty parking lot or sits in a parking lot
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  empty. He said you would be able to
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  rent that and make some money on the side.
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  Little side hustle you got going on there, giving people rides
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  with your Tesla. You would automate the driving.
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  You wouldn't be in the vehicle. It would do everything through
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  an app. And because they're making this
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  autonomous fleet of cyber cabs, do you think that's still going
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  to come into play? Let me know in the comments of
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  your podcast player what you think about that because that's
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  an interesting thing to think about.
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  Will that still be available to people that own Teslas
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  currently? Or is he going to take back that
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  from you, the current Tesla owners in the future, if that's
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  what you're betting on? And let me know in the comments.