Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Everybody Relax. We're Talking About Crypto.
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- 0:03Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio.
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- 0:36Speaker 1: I hope you're gonna like it.
- 0:48Speaker 2: Welcome to the Merin Talks Money Weekly round up, our
- 0:50Speaker 2: deprie from the biggest stories in markets and economics. I'm
- 0:52Speaker 2: Merrin Sumsetweb Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth and
- 0:55Speaker 2: oh no, you can increase yourself John and I'm.
- 0:59Speaker 3: Joined Stepics, senior reporter and authors the Money Distilled newsletter.
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- 1:11Speaker 2: Yeah, we're both going to be behind the paywall, and
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- 1:22Speaker 2: sign up to Bloomberg. So you can see that in
- 1:25Speaker 2: the show notes. As I said earlier, now, John John, John, Johnjohn,
- 1:28Speaker 2: you haven't got any cryptocurrency, have you?
- 1:30Speaker 1: Nothing? Not a single token, not a penny in it. Nothing.
- 1:34Speaker 3: Actually, actually, actually, I do have some obscure thing called
- 1:38Speaker 3: bitcoin cash. The Mutual friend Dominic sent to me okay,
- 1:43Speaker 3: services rendered at one point.
- 1:46Speaker 1: Oh, we'll talk about that offline. Fascinating.
- 1:54Speaker 4: Yeah, this is my.
- 1:55Speaker 2: Way of leading us into the fact that we have
- 1:57Speaker 2: got to talk about cryptocurrencies today. We've we flagged in
- 2:02Speaker 2: this very show only last week that the re election
- 2:05Speaker 2: of Donald Trump was going to be excellent news for
- 2:08Speaker 2: bitcoin and for cryptocurrencies in general. Now we're speaking in
- 2:12Speaker 2: the middle of the week and bitcoin search has paused,
- 2:14Speaker 2: maybe for a while, maybe not for a while, but
- 2:16Speaker 2: it's se a huge thirty percent jump in value as
- 2:19Speaker 2: a result of Trump's rhetorical support for crypto.
- 2:22Speaker 1: He's been talking about it a lot.
- 2:23Speaker 2: It's currently valued at around eighty six five hundred dollars.
- 2:27Speaker 2: But of course it's not the only cryptocurrency enjoying something
- 2:31Speaker 2: of a boost. Doge coin, dog cooin, help me out here.
- 2:36Speaker 4: I think doruge thanks doors.
- 2:37Speaker 2: Doge Yeah, yeah, doge coin, which by the way, I own,
- 2:43Speaker 2: has seen an eighty percent increase in the past five days,
- 2:45Speaker 2: partly due to billionaire Elon musk promotion of the token.
- 2:49Speaker 2: It's now considered one of the strongest performers in crypto.
- 2:52Speaker 2: And I will just add that I did say I
- 2:54Speaker 2: own some dogecoin, and I do, but I have recently
- 2:57Speaker 2: checked my coin based account and my dogecoin is current
- 3:00Speaker 2: worth ten pounds and forty two pence. It's gonna really
- 3:04Speaker 2: need to move from here to drive my retirement, right.
- 3:09Speaker 4: I mean, it's a coin, and that is a so
- 3:13Speaker 4: that's pretty good.
- 3:14Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it is.
- 3:15Speaker 2: But you know, I mean, I know it's a joke coin,
- 3:17Speaker 2: and I bought it as a joke, as you, mainly
- 3:19Speaker 2: to irritate by my husband. But kind of the joke's
- 3:22Speaker 2: on me giving it certainly work worth just over a
- 3:24Speaker 2: tanner right now, one day, John, one day, my bitcoin
- 3:29Speaker 2: is worth a little more my insurance bitcoin. Now we
- 3:32Speaker 2: are both getting into quite a lot of trouble on
- 3:33Speaker 2: Twitter in general, because every time I write anything about bitcoin,
- 3:37Speaker 2: I get hoardes and hordes and hordes of replies from
- 3:40Speaker 2: the crypto bros telling me how stupid I am, telling
- 3:42Speaker 2: me how stupid you are, sorry, John, and how useless
- 3:45Speaker 2: we are not to have educated ourselves earlier, and how
- 3:48Speaker 2: one way, one day we will understand if we would
- 3:50Speaker 2: only come for this subject with a little more humility
- 3:54Speaker 2: and have more expert guests on. And they keep recommending
- 3:58Speaker 2: experts to me, this expert, that ex I am not
- 4:01Speaker 2: sure that you people really understand the difference between an
- 4:04Speaker 2: expert and a siloed idea logue.
- 4:07Speaker 3: You know, Yeah, there's a certain cultishness about bitcoin. And
- 4:13Speaker 3: the one reason that I actually have, if I'm one
- 4:15Speaker 3: hundred percent, was to have a slight soft spot for
- 4:18Speaker 3: it is because this reminds me of almost exactly what
- 4:23Speaker 3: the gold bugs were like in the early two thousands.
- 4:27Speaker 3: And at that point, you know, when we were writing
- 4:31Speaker 3: about gold, it was something that the mainstream media wouldn't
- 4:34Speaker 3: touch by a ten foot bar's pole. And you know,
- 4:38Speaker 3: you couldn't find an IFA or certainly not a respectable
- 4:41Speaker 3: wealthy managers who would even give gold space in their portfolio,
- 4:44Speaker 3: whereas today they all say, yeah, have five ten percent
- 4:48Speaker 3: of your portfolio and gold that's a decent diversifier blah
- 4:51Speaker 3: blah blah. So you know, there's a bit of me
- 4:54Speaker 3: that so sees remembers that and sees where some of
- 5:00Speaker 3: the frustration comes from.
- 5:02Speaker 2: And we should actually note with that in mind, that
- 5:05Speaker 2: that a deutsch Bank has just put a long term
- 5:07Speaker 2: asset return to study lessons from the first quarter center
- 5:10Speaker 2: of the millennium in which they point out that gold
- 5:13Speaker 2: has performed better than the US secuity marketer over the
- 5:16Speaker 2: first twenty five years of the of the millennium.
- 5:19Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I mean that's really interesting, if you know,
- 5:21Speaker 3: because in two thousand, if you'd said the asset to
- 5:23Speaker 3: buy and hold right now is gold over.
- 5:26Speaker 1: Which we did by the way, which we did.
- 5:28Speaker 3: Well, Yeah, I guess good point, just saying well it
- 5:35Speaker 3: did and it has over performed since then. And that's
- 5:37Speaker 3: that's kind of fascinating in the all of itself. Employee
- 5:41Speaker 3: speaks to, you know, balance sheets and then the funny
- 5:45Speaker 3: kind of way, I guess beckcoin is actually an offshoot
- 5:48Speaker 3: of that world which has been very kind to gold.
- 5:52Speaker 3: It's a world where faith and the financial system, the
- 5:57Speaker 3: size of government bound shoots the central bank bound cheat says,
- 6:00Speaker 3: can shut up, so that the two have got there's
- 6:04Speaker 3: a certain sort of relationship there, but it's never good
- 6:07Speaker 3: to be cultishly invested in any asset.
- 6:11Speaker 2: I'm if I'm fair to our audience, I would say
- 6:14Speaker 2: maybe I've historically been a little cultures about gold, but
- 6:17Speaker 2: I never regret it. Right, Let's talk. Let's talk to
- 6:21Speaker 2: me a lot better than our value. Stock got to say.
- 6:24Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about why this has happened.
- 6:26Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's a lot about the election. It's
- 6:29Speaker 2: not about Donald Trump, about the the likelihood of a
- 6:32Speaker 2: crypto friendly government across the board. We're like to see
- 6:36Speaker 2: some new cryptocurrency friendly legislation. There's almost nothing here that
- 6:43Speaker 2: appears to be negative to the cryptocurrency market. It's total capitalization.
- 6:48Speaker 2: Market capitalization is hid in all time high. We've seen
- 6:51Speaker 2: extraordinary levels of activity. Another a stat from Deutsche Bank
- 6:56Speaker 2: here twenty for our trading volume exceeding four hundred dollars.
- 7:01Speaker 2: So you've got a lot going on here.
- 7:06Speaker 4: Than silver though in terms of market yes, I saw that.
- 7:09Speaker 1: I saw that, Mart Okay, So there's lots of things
- 7:15Speaker 1: that could happen here.
- 7:16Speaker 2: We'll have more regularly claratory we'll have more institutional participation,
- 7:20Speaker 2: presumably as a result of this regulatory clarity, so we
- 7:23Speaker 2: can expect even more money to pour into bitcoin. ETFs
- 7:27Speaker 2: will have a better infrastructure, and maybe we'll see a
- 7:30Speaker 2: broader adoption of cryptocurrencies among not just the institutional but
- 7:35Speaker 2: also the retail market.
- 7:37Speaker 1: So there's that.
- 7:39Speaker 2: We've also got and momentum behind it. We've got possibly
- 7:43Speaker 2: lower interest rates coming, and that's good for everything. Everything
- 7:45Speaker 2: growthy and bitcoin tends to move alongside growth. And then
- 7:50Speaker 2: the final thing, which you mentioned briefly earlier, is ded dollarization,
- 7:55Speaker 2: fast raising debt, general global tensions. If you think of
- 7:58Speaker 2: crypto a bit like you think of gold, then it's
- 8:01Speaker 2: going to be in there. And here's another fascinating stat
- 8:04Speaker 2: for you again, I'm pulling this out of Deutsche Bank.
- 8:05Speaker 2: I think it's really interesting. The bricks nations now conduct
- 8:09Speaker 2: twenty eight percent of cross border crypto currency transactions. So
- 8:13Speaker 2: that suggests that it really is important that cryptocurrencies are
- 8:17Speaker 2: facilitating global economic flows, international emissionss, etcetera. In a way
- 8:21Speaker 2: that we hadn't We have talked about it on this podcast,
- 8:23Speaker 2: by the way. We had lengthy conversations, did we which
- 8:26Speaker 2: guess it was we had on who talked to us
- 8:27Speaker 2: her a lot about the way that cryptocurrency is, and
- 8:30Speaker 2: bitcoin in particular a use for economic transfers res across
- 8:35Speaker 2: the third world.
- 8:36Speaker 3: Was that limb Yeah, the one that keeping that we
- 8:39Speaker 3: should have oin and who we have had Oin?
- 8:43Speaker 2: Yes, the person people keep telling us we should definitely
- 8:45Speaker 2: have Lynen and I keep saying no, but we had
- 8:47Speaker 2: Lenon and leaves them going, well, then why don't you
- 8:49Speaker 2: understand that she was really good, very very good.
- 8:54Speaker 1: Yeah, very good.
- 8:55Speaker 2: Anyway, So all these things, So, John, does this lead
- 8:58Speaker 2: you rushing out now to buy bitcoin and accepting that
- 9:03Speaker 2: you and I and Be in particular have been completely
- 9:06Speaker 2: wrong on bitcoin ever since that tweet that I wrote
- 9:10Speaker 2: that thank you tech bros For dragging up back in
- 9:13Speaker 2: twenty eleven where I said that bitcoin at twenty eight
- 9:17Speaker 2: dollars was a mania.
- 9:21Speaker 4: I mean it was a mania at the time.
- 9:23Speaker 3: It's been through a number of manias, and Bitcoin's been
- 9:27Speaker 3: through at least two major bubbles and busts now, and
- 9:30Speaker 3: it's sort right that Matthew and bitcoin hasn't changed. I
- 9:34Speaker 3: think it's a real thing. I think it has a
- 9:38Speaker 3: use case. I just don't know how to value it,
- 9:41Speaker 3: and I think the valuation is largely driven by flows,
- 9:45Speaker 3: which is, you know, very indicative of the era that
- 9:49Speaker 3: we're in. Pretty much every asset valuation is driven more
- 9:52Speaker 3: so flows have become much more important than fundamentals, and
- 9:56Speaker 3: I don't know when or if that's going to change,
- 10:01Speaker 3: you know, I wish I had the wind that when
- 10:02Speaker 3: I frustrated by it in like twenty fifteen, in.
- 10:05Speaker 1: My stupid We've both been there.
- 10:09Speaker 3: So you know I would I would probably at least
- 10:11Speaker 3: have sold it at some point and bought a small
- 10:13Speaker 3: car with it, you know, but I like to think
- 10:15Speaker 3: that I could be a millionaire.
- 10:17Speaker 2: Bitt this point that that is the important thing to remember. Everyone,
- 10:22Speaker 2: the likes of you and me, John say, well, I
- 10:24Speaker 2: wish we bought this point. I wihould put at this point,
- 10:27Speaker 2: I we should bought at this point, we forget.
- 10:29Speaker 1: That we would have sold it.
- 10:30Speaker 2: Yeah, we would not still be holding it now and
- 10:33Speaker 2: we'd be living with that kind of seller's regret, and
- 10:36Speaker 2: we would then almost definitely buy in at the top
- 10:39Speaker 2: of everything.
- 10:40Speaker 3: All we pull an Isaac Newton for absolutely certain the
- 10:45Speaker 3: sea bubble thing.
- 10:46Speaker 2: We would that would not be shameful, you like her.
- 10:49Speaker 4: I compared this to Isaac Newton.
- 10:51Speaker 1: I did. I really, I really appreciated that. Thank you.
- 10:54Speaker 2: Now listen, there's something that I that I wanted to
- 10:57Speaker 2: talk about, which is the possibility. And I'm not saying
- 11:00Speaker 2: this because I don't have very much bitcoin. There is
- 11:02Speaker 2: a possibility that is beginning to be discussed that Trump's
- 11:08Speaker 2: regulatory regime may be very crypto positive, but not necessarily
- 11:15Speaker 2: bitcoin bitcoin positive. And I've been talking to Russell Russell Napier,
- 11:18Speaker 2: the financial historian and founder of the Library of Mistakes,
- 11:22Speaker 2: who we've had on the podcast before, and we talked
- 11:24Speaker 2: to and about a reasonable amount about this. He makes
- 11:27Speaker 2: a very good point. He says, look, bitcoin is a
- 11:29Speaker 2: portal that allows savers to avoid measures that push savings
- 11:34Speaker 2: towards funding national investments. Trump is a nationalist. He's going
- 11:39Speaker 2: to want to use national savings for what he perceives
- 11:42Speaker 2: to be the national good. So maybe that's going to
- 11:46Speaker 2: make him move away from bitcoin slightly towards other, well
- 11:50Speaker 2: not other, but actual stable coins.
- 11:52Speaker 1: Now they're the opposite.
- 11:53Speaker 2: They're back to usually by short term treasury securities, and
- 11:56Speaker 2: they attract funds into the dollars, into the US government,
- 11:59Speaker 2: so they may turn into not just a means of
- 12:01Speaker 2: transaction for Americans, but also a store of value for
- 12:05Speaker 2: foreigners who don't have easy access to dollar deposits, So
- 12:08Speaker 2: that not only brings funds into the dollar, but also
- 12:12Speaker 2: provides funds that Trump may be able to direct to
- 12:16Speaker 2: what he considers to be the national good. So there's
- 12:19Speaker 2: there is a difference here between bitcoin and stable coins.
- 12:24Speaker 2: So when we talk about crypto, we have to remember
- 12:26Speaker 2: that crypto isn't one great big mass. It may be
- 12:29Speaker 2: that we now move into an era where all the
- 12:31Speaker 2: things that we have that people have discussed with us
- 12:34Speaker 2: on the podcast about the things that are good about
- 12:37Speaker 2: crypto in general, changing changing the way companies run, changing
- 12:41Speaker 2: the way various legal processes run, changing the way the
- 12:44Speaker 2: infrastructure of finance is run. That may turn out to
- 12:49Speaker 2: be the key thing under Trump as opposed to bitcoin itself.
- 12:55Speaker 3: I suppose that's the interesting thing. And this, I mean,
- 12:57Speaker 3: this is one reason you know, obviously the cryptos of
- 13:00Speaker 3: the thing, because stable currencies are stable coins are the
- 13:03Speaker 3: thing that actually worry governments, and they're the reason that
- 13:06Speaker 3: we're getting central bank digital currencies cbdc's because the fundamentally
- 13:13Speaker 3: the government cannot have the private sector taken over or
- 13:16Speaker 3: taking a large chunk of the currency business. That's basically
- 13:23Speaker 3: you know that and you've pointed this out before. Governments
- 13:25Speaker 3: have always made sure that the monopoly, in fact those
- 13:29Speaker 3: with monarchs as well, the monopoly and currency issuance must
- 13:32Speaker 3: always be with the leaders of the country, basically, and
- 13:37Speaker 3: crypto has posed a threat to that, and that's why
- 13:40Speaker 3: central banks and the bis have taken it seriously. And
- 13:45Speaker 3: you're right, and I think the risk here is that
- 13:48Speaker 3: the sort of ideological underpinnings of bitcoin and crypto specifically
- 13:54Speaker 3: we're all about essentially escaping from government control of currencies,
- 13:59Speaker 3: and the irony of ironies, as always says, is that,
- 14:03Speaker 3: as you say, maybe Trump is the one to mainstream them,
- 14:06Speaker 3: and maybe mainstreams them by making you know, bitcoin a
- 14:09Speaker 3: reserve aset that backs the staple coin version of the dollar.
- 14:13Speaker 4: Type of thing.
- 14:14Speaker 3: You know, he sort of brings it into, you know,
- 14:17Speaker 3: under the control of you know, a kind of essentialized
- 14:21Speaker 3: kind of power. And I realize a lot of people
- 14:23Speaker 3: will be spitting out their tea when they hear that,
- 14:25Speaker 3: But that's kind of you know, if you're excited the
- 14:28Speaker 3: black Rock have launched that, you know, an etf owning bitcoin,
- 14:33Speaker 3: et cetera.
- 14:33Speaker 2: And then then you're not really yes, I mean, you're
- 14:36Speaker 2: not there with the original purpose of bitcoin. You know,
- 14:39Speaker 2: it's supposed to be more on a transaction currency that
- 14:41Speaker 2: has not happened, and it's long been taken over by
- 14:44Speaker 2: other things, and that they're supposed to be a store
- 14:46Speaker 2: of value, and you can't really call it that because
- 14:49Speaker 2: of the volatility. I mean, you can say it's gone
- 14:52Speaker 2: up in value, but that's not the same as being
- 14:53Speaker 2: a store of value, is it. And of course there's
- 14:56Speaker 2: this idea that it was supposed to operate outside the system,
- 14:59Speaker 2: and I was, it's now being pulled deeper and deeper
- 15:02Speaker 2: into the system. And one thing I might add to that,
- 15:04Speaker 2: by the way, is it in the general abuse I
- 15:07Speaker 2: get on Twitter as next tech bros. The general abuse
- 15:10Speaker 2: I get on Twitter a lot. A lot of it
- 15:13Speaker 2: is about, well, you know, if Larry Fink thinks it's
- 15:15Speaker 2: an asset class, then you should think it's a NAS
- 15:17Speaker 2: class too, and do you know what's wrong with you?
- 15:18Speaker 1: Et cetera.
- 15:19Speaker 2: And the point I would say to that is that
- 15:22Speaker 2: just because big institutions launch vehicles that allow you to
- 15:25Speaker 2: invest in a product, does not mean that they have
- 15:29Speaker 2: a particular belief in the long term value of that
- 15:32Speaker 2: product of that acid class. Simply that all products in
- 15:35Speaker 2: which you invest make big institutions money. So you know, obviously,
- 15:39Speaker 2: if you're going to set up a Bitcoin ETF, you
- 15:41Speaker 2: assume the bitcoin has got strong some longevity. But it's
- 15:44Speaker 2: not a vote of confidence in its long term value.
- 15:47Speaker 2: It's a vote of confidence in the fees that you
- 15:50Speaker 2: can gather from creating a vehicle in which other people
- 15:54Speaker 2: can invest in. I mean, it's different, it's different, So
- 15:58Speaker 2: please everyone stops sending me tweets saying that it was
- 16:01Speaker 2: good enough for black crockets should be good enough for me.
- 16:05Speaker 3: They only I mean, from a practical point of view,
- 16:09Speaker 3: I think that the best approach to investing in bitcoin
- 16:13Speaker 3: that I have seen is probably Charlie Morris's Bold, and.
- 16:19Speaker 2: I think we can probably say to that before you
- 16:21Speaker 2: tell us what boulders, I think I will also say
- 16:23Speaker 2: everyone telling us on Twitter to get Charlie Morrison, he's.
- 16:27Speaker 1: Been on john't remind us what bold is.
- 16:34Speaker 3: Basically, Charlie's get this mix where it's it's something like
- 16:37Speaker 3: it's the proportions vary, but it's a big chunk of gold.
- 16:40Speaker 4: With a little chunk of bitcoin.
- 16:43Speaker 3: And the great thing about it is that because they
- 16:45Speaker 3: kind of have similarities, but they also have differenceies, so
- 16:48Speaker 3: when one's going up, the others going down in vice versa.
- 16:52Speaker 3: But also it smooth at the volatility, and I think
- 16:54Speaker 3: it's returned. I could be completely wrong in this because
- 16:57Speaker 3: I don't have the figure in front of me, but
- 16:58Speaker 3: I think it's about eighty percent this year, which is
- 17:01Speaker 3: much better than you know, it's it's not as good
- 17:04Speaker 3: as holding bitcoin by itself, but at the same time,
- 17:07Speaker 3: there's no point at which you've been looking at your
- 17:09Speaker 3: portfolio going oh my god and kind of like sobbing
- 17:12Speaker 3: and worrying that you can be able to pay your
- 17:14Speaker 3: mortgage that.
- 17:14Speaker 4: Week or whatever.
- 17:16Speaker 3: So you know that's that's eighty percent is quite respectable.
- 17:21Speaker 3: And Charlie's been banging the drum on this for years now,
- 17:25Speaker 3: and think he's pretty much the only person I can
- 17:28Speaker 3: think of certainly that's talked about it in that respect.
- 17:32Speaker 3: And he definitely understands bitcoin for anyone who is, you know,
- 17:37Speaker 3: that way inclined.
- 17:38Speaker 4: So no, I think his approach is the best.
- 17:41Speaker 1: Do you mean he doesn't need to educate himself.
- 17:43Speaker 3: He doesn't need to educate himself, and obviously with more humility. Yeah,
- 17:49Speaker 3: humility is the first world that springs to mind when
- 17:51Speaker 3: I think you.
- 17:54Speaker 1: Okay, but that's interesting.
- 17:55Speaker 2: So anyone who hasn't listened to the episode that we
- 17:58Speaker 2: did with Charlie, do go back and listen to listen
- 18:00Speaker 2: to it again.
- 18:01Speaker 1: It's very interesting.
- 18:03Speaker 3: Some of us very kindly, just as showed me Childie's
- 18:07Speaker 3: most recent update. And so Bold has with on fifty
- 18:10Speaker 3: six percent, which is better than gold and not as
- 18:14Speaker 3: good as bitcoin.
- 18:15Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 18:16Speaker 1: God, I take that, though, wouldn't you.
- 18:17Speaker 4: I would take fifty six percent.
- 18:20Speaker 1: Crypto has done very well. Gold has done very well.
- 18:23Speaker 1: Crypto has done better.
- 18:24Speaker 2: You could have done pretty well by having both. You
- 18:27Speaker 2: may think that the future is very certain for bitcoin,
- 18:29Speaker 2: given that Trump appears to be a backer of bitcoin,
- 18:33Speaker 2: but there are all sorts of dynamics out there that
- 18:35Speaker 2: you don't and we don't yet fully understand. The future
- 18:38Speaker 2: is never certain anything else about John.
- 18:41Speaker 3: No said obviously all complaints to somewhere.
- 18:45Speaker 2: They also went to oh absolutely, and particularly about bitcoin,
- 18:48Speaker 2: particularly about bitcoin. And by the way, one one last thing,
- 18:51Speaker 2: it might still be a mania might be who knows.
- 18:59Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. To this week's Merin Talks Money Debrief.
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- 19:12Speaker 2: No?
- 19:13Speaker 4: But I intend to excellent get on with.
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