Latest / Financial Survival Network / Debt, Taxes, & 2024 Election Market Shifts - Ed Siddell #6176

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Debt, Taxes, & 2024 Election Market Shifts - Ed Siddell #6176 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There's no recession, right B, because the economy is strong.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: But you know, when you look at you know, we
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: added fifty or half a percent fifty two basis points
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: at the minimum to the GDP numbers to get them
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: to where they were, and that was all government spending.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: you get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else
• 0:23
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• 0:27
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• 0:32
  Speaker 2: dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Survival Network now more than ever. ED.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: I'm your host Ferry Lutz and noted economic expert at
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: sidel Is with us ED.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: We got to talk.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: About these GDP numbers. The economy is doing so great.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Why is everyone so miserable? Well, yeah, yeah, you know
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: the the reports are.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: You know, there's no recession, right B, because the economy
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: is strong.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: But you know when you look at, you know.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: We added fifty or half a percent of fifty two
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: basis points at the minimum to the GDP numbers to
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: get them to where they were, and that was all
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: government spending. You know, that's inflationary, and you know we're
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: talking about it right before we started. I just wanted
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: to double check the numbers. Did you know so far
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: this year fiscal year twenty twenty four, that we have
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: already spent six point seventy five trillion dollars already? Really well,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: and I would not be shocked if our debt hits
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: thirty six trillion on election day?
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: Were there about question for you? Yeah, hey, right before it.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: Trump's proposing elimination of the federal income tax, and I
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: want to take my champagne bottle out now and replacement
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: with some type of you said tariff, but I think
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: of that would also right.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: He required there is this doable you know what.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I actually when he first said it, I was like, yeah, boy,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: that's that's kind of out there. And and then I remembered,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: you know, something that our laugher said, uh, you know,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: earlier in the year.
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: So I started looking at it, and it really is.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: It really is doable, and and you know, the the
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: VAT or consumption tax, but yeah, I think it really
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: really is.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: You know, some of the other things that he was talking.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: About, which is doing away with taxes on social Security.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: You know, they were talking about adding to the national debt.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: But but you know, it's it's always the opposite of
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: of what you really think because you know, when you
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: look at the math behind a statement like that and
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: you just go back to, you know, the the current
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: tax plan that we're in right now that goes away
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: sets you know, the the December thirty first is twenty
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: twenty five. You know, we are taking in more tax
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: revenues now under the current tax code, which was you know,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: under the Trump administration than in the history of the
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: United States. The problem is is that we're spending more.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I think in August we talked about this. Last time,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: we took in like four hundred and over four hundred
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: billion dollars in one month, and we spent four over
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: you know, four hundred and eighty billion UH deficit. We
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: overspent you know, four hundred and eighty billion. So you know,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: when when you look at these tax reducing strategies, you know,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: can we add more tax revenue? And I think the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: answer is is yes, absolutely, because when you look at
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: he also wants to reduce the the UH business tax,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: you know from you know, the current twenty one down
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: to fifteen percent. And I think that's also going to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: have a very positive impact on tax revenues. So how
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: is that going to have a positive twist on tax
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: revenue as well? Now more people from a consumption standpoint,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: they're going to be able to live a higher standard
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: of living. You know, they're going to be able to
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: to spend more, which is going to create more tax revenues,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: you know, over over the long haul.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: You know, especially with the tariffs.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: You know, we if companies are having to spend one
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: hundred and two hundred percent I'm using Trump's words more
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: just to bring their their their their goods and services
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: into the US, what are they going to do. They're
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: going to open up factories here in the US, which
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: is going to increase the the the revenue base. And
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: that's how he's going to accomplish that. So, you know,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I it's very ingenious. You really have to think outside
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: of the box. But once you do the math, I
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  Speaker 1: think it's a very doable deal.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: So what about the uh, no taxes on tips? I mean,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: is that just a pandering vote buying type thing or uh,
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: you know, can you.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: Really do that fairly?
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: Because it is income, although you can make the argument
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: that it's a gift.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what you know, in the service industry,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: it's so my my my middle son is.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: A server at a at a higher end restaurant.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And you know, the the tips, so he's not even
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: making minimum wage. And you know the it's those that
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: are in that service industry. It's the difference between if
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: you're not having to pay taxes on those tips. It's
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the difference between making ends meet, uh and and you
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: know and not having to get a second job. So
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I think it really is from a quality of life standpoint,
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  Speaker 1: it's going to be life changing for you know, the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: working class American for sure.
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: And yeah, I mean it's really not fair.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: But there are a highly paid to the waiters and
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: waitresses and weight staff at fine rest you know they're
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: six figures yes, And same with you know in Vegas, uh,
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: one of the best paid jobs in this valet parking
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: car and the made right without a doubt.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: And and you know, think about it like this, Garriy
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: is that we're moving away from cashlest society. So you know,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: those tips, everything's going to be you know, electronic, whether
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: it's through credit cards or you know, they're pushing through
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the c B d C Central Bank digital currency sure
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna be able to track it, you know,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: and if you don't have to pay taxes on on
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: those electronic transfers, you know, it is you know, it's
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: it's going to add a lot to uh to the economy.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: And you're right, you know, the the the the restaurant chain,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: if you will, they're all high end restaurants that my
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: my son works at. He goes to college too. But
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: you know, everyone in there, you know, it's it's you know,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: mid six figures, I mean there in it, but they
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: definitely earn it for sure.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: So yeah, fascinating, fascinating. So I just you know, really
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: interest me the way this happens. Policy emerges because you know,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: you don't start with a clean slate, so you got
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: to work with what's there. But really, in so many
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: areas of what the government does, we need to throw
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: out virtually everything it does and start the thing over
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: again because it's so messed up and it's so corrupted.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: And yep, this really is a change election. You know,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: not talking about politics, but about policy. Policy is far
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: more important than politics. Politics just gets people at each
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: other's throats. Policy, you actually work together to solve problems,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: something we've seemingly been unable to do in this country
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: for you know, twenty years or more.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: You know, what's that old thing if if you're not
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: part of the solution, you're part of the problem. And
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I you know, I elon Musk what he did with
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: with Twitter now X, you know, in cutting the fat,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: you know, looking at you know what what they're looking
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: you know, to trimming the fat for you know, government employees.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: And you know, probably a little tongue in cheek when
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: he said, you know, hey, we're gonna give two years
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: worth of severance so that that way they can figure
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: out what they want to do next. But we're overspending
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  Speaker 1: so much. You know, the a lot of the jobs
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: that we've added this year, just like last year. I mean,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: their their government federal government jobs, and that is nothing
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: but inflationary. You know, I heard that there's it's over
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the employees in DC are still working
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: from home. They're they're not even in this So you know,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: are they really needed and necessary?
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: You know?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: And and I'm asking because I you know, honestly, I
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: don't know. And you're coming on policy versus politics. You know,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: that's that's a big deal.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: There.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: There was an article that came out when you know,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the mid sized businesses and obviously the Fortune five hundred,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: you know, CEOs were asked this question, what would you
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: rather see? Would you rather see lower taxes or less regulation?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Do you know what over ninety percent responded was less regulation? Yeah,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: because you know all of these regulations that it's it's
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: business prevention. Now, look, I believe me. I'm big on
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the environment. I'm an outdoorsman. You know, I don't want
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: to see water bottles and trash everywhere I go. But
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you know, when the EPA turns a puddle into a
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: lake or a pond and you can't even do it
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: on your right up party, you know that becomes successive
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: so complete madness.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah all right, Well, so once the election is over,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: silly season, where do you see the market heading? The
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: market seems to be pricing in uh, a Trump victory
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: in my opinion.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: Without a doubt, without a doubt.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: You know, I we're we're seeing a couple of things,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: you know, we're we're seeing these you know, Trump trades
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: that are being placed, you know, value companies, those companies
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: with strong balance sheets. And you know what's been very
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: ironic is, you know, even as companies are coming out,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: you know, beating expectations on the street, as their earnings
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: have come out, you know, those companies have remained very flat.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: But you know, we're already starting to see movement in healthcare,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: We're already starting to see movement in energy. And again,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I think the markets are pricing in, you know, a
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Trump victory. But one of the other things that the
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: markets are pricing in, especially the bond markets, is that
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: even though the Feds lowered rates fifty basis points and
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I think they're probably gonna lurma again another you know,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: twenty five BIPs in a couple of weeks.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: Don't say I agree with it. I understand why they're
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: doing it.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: The bond market is like, yeah, inflation isn't going away
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: anytime soon, and so yields are going higher. So you know,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I think that there's you know a little push pull
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: going on in the markets right now, and I think
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: everyone's kind of anxious to see what's going to happen.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You know, a week from today, the outcome of the election. Yeah, well,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: well no, a week from today, that's for sure, all right.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming on sharing your opinions on things.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Tell us again where we find you, how we connect
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: with you. Yeah, you can find us on the interwebs
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: at eg SI financial dot com.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: All right, and the link is in the shows this
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there,
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: please sign up for Breed newsletter like forty thousand other
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: subscribers have done. And if you got any questions, shoot
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: me an email Heyl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. Ed always
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: a pleasure, be well, talk to you after the election.
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: Absolutely, Thank you very much.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,