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Best Bets for Week 14 College Football's Biggest Rivalries! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:01
Hello everybody, welcome to targeting winners.
0:03
Eight week is upon us week everyone, best week of the year,
0:07
I think even better than championship week.
0:09
Joining me as always we have Pete from El Pico de Mexico.
0:15
Pedro, how are? You Now it's the week of the
0:17
game. I'm nervous and excited at the
0:19
same time. Happy to be here.
0:22
Nice. Darren, Upstate New York, How
0:25
are you? Cold.
0:29
It's 85° and sunny here. Yeah, I was going to say you 2
0:31
wouldn't understand. It's cold here, but doing good.
0:35
Daughter came home from college yesterday.
0:36
Son should be here shortly and you know.
0:40
Work tomorrow is the best weekend of the year I think,
0:42
isn't it? What's that?
0:43
This is the best weekend of the year, isn't it?
0:45
I mean Thanksgiving, just like endless amounts of food and then
0:48
endless amounts of football. Awesome week, Awesome week.
0:52
Yeah, and the schedule's certainly way better than it was
0:55
last week, so. But it's a great week.
0:58
Yeah, the couch is dreading my imprint of my my tuchus.
1:01
It's gonna be it's gonna be parked there for like 9 hours.
1:06
So it's. Speaking of Speaking of garbage,
1:09
you know, as we're recording this, yeah, Bowling Green and
1:13
UMass are are on television. I.
1:14
I thought you're going to talk about my record last week, which
1:16
is O and three. Which is Corbin bro you.
1:19
You carried the show in 2024 man.
1:21
There will be no Pedro slander on today's video.
1:25
There, It's your kind of usher, man.
1:26
It's all you I know. And you're going to.
1:27
Bring up that game. I would have made a bronze butt
1:29
cheeks for that game. I.
1:32
Mean Bowling Green and UMass do not deserve anything, even
1:36
bronze. It should be rusted, molded, you
1:39
know. Yeah, it's 21.
1:42
Nothing already as we speak in the second.
1:45
Quarter second quarter Oh. Jesus, Yeah, it's.
1:49
Absolutely right. Western Michigan, Eastern
1:51
Michigan game, at least there's, you know, Western Michigan wins.
1:54
They're in the Mac title game. So at least there's there's
1:57
something on the line there. Something Yeah, wait for the Mac
2:00
to go out with a bang there just.
2:03
We love it though. We.
2:05
We. Yeah, we do love it.
2:06
Not enough to watch that game. I'd rather record since we're
2:10
getting ready for Turkey Day, so I'd rather be doing that.
2:13
Yeah, that's why we're doing this.
2:14
I'm not watching Bowling Green U.
2:19
We're fans, but we're. Fans, even we have even we have
2:22
limits, right? But you know what's sad?
2:28
The second we're done here, it's probably going to take me like
2:30
half hour to upload the video, so I'll probably be.
2:33
You'll be watching. You'll be watching.
2:35
Who are we kidding, Darren? We're not kidding.
2:38
I admit it. My name is Darren and I have a
2:41
problem. I think we're all in that that
2:45
boat here. Hi, Darren, How are you?
2:47
I'm fine. My name is Darren.
2:50
I've been watching Bowling Green for 1/4 and 1/2.
2:54
Very. Important.
2:57
That's kind of like the guy that got kicked out of Guns and Roses
2:59
for doing too much drugs. Like that's, that's, that's,
3:01
that's. The problem?
3:02
Real problem. If you watch too much college
3:05
football for this show, man, I don't know.
3:08
I am high on Mac football. Guilty discharge.
3:13
All right, so well, we just do the scramble and see what game
3:17
we're going to do first or. Let's do it, yeah.
3:21
Let's roll. What do we got here?
3:26
Oh, Texas A&M? God.
3:29
Is this an important game, Tim? I I'm not.
3:31
I haven't been. Not at all.
3:33
OK, I didn't think so. Is Texas still playing three
3:37
massive future bets? 28 Nothing, by the way.
3:42
Oh my God. Holy Green just scored again
3:44
while we were talking. Of course they did.
3:45
They'll probably score again the next two.
3:47
They'll probably score again before we're done with this
3:49
game, so. The total is 43 1/2, so I'm just
3:53
wondering if you know if they'll hit this by halftime because
3:56
they're well on their way. Well, everything on the line in
4:00
Austin, TX this week. Texas does have a very good
4:05
defense, you know, top three in success rate and something in
4:11
top ten in havoc. I was noticing that's a that's a
4:14
category. I but I guess so.
4:17
Texas is good at stopping consistent running games.
4:20
They're not so consistent with the chunk plays.
4:26
Fireworks I think are going to happen for this game.
4:29
The over under I believe is 51. I think I have them at 51.
4:34
I have. I'm taking the over here.
4:38
God, I'm rooting for A&M. It's on the road.
4:40
That's what scares me. It's also a Friday game and I
4:42
hate Friday games. But yeah, I like Texas A and MI
4:47
like that. Taking that over is my official
4:49
bet. I believe the line was minus.
4:52
What was it 6 1/2 for that one, but 2 1/2?
4:55
Let's let's under a field goal. Yeah, but yeah, on the road
5:01
Friday, that all scares me. I like the over here hoping for
5:05
a big Marcel Reed game to end the year.
5:09
This is one of the games I was banking on when I made that
5:11
Heisman bet. We had Notre Dame in the front,
5:14
Texas in the back end and hopefully he gets invited to the
5:20
Heisman ceremony in a couple weeks and hopefully this went
5:24
out of I think A&M might be in the game anyway, I think.
5:30
Now if they if they lose, there's a scenario where.
5:32
They're not. Yeah, there is one wild
5:34
scenario, the Finebaum effect. Maybe we'll keep them out.
5:37
But yeah, so let's just hope. Keep it on the field, keep it in
5:41
their own hands, hope they win the game.
5:43
But I'm batting over here. What are you guys thinking?
5:45
Scared to death. I, I, I'm just going to say I'm,
5:50
I'm pulling for you. But gosh, something just tells
5:54
me, man, this is not going to be easy.
5:56
I'd, I'd, I just can't put my finger on it.
6:03
It's yeah, the football guys. Somewhere I'm going to have a
6:05
nice thing that's. It's not even that.
6:07
It's just like, you know, I talked about this when I when I
6:09
gave out the the A&M South Carolina over a few weeks ago.
6:14
Which A&M defense is going to show up?
6:17
The one that showed up against Arkansas or South Carolina shows
6:21
up. Yeah, you're over.
6:21
Battle hit like midway through the third quarter and I'd be
6:25
worried about losing the game because Texas's defense always
6:27
seems to show up. So A&M's going to have to going
6:32
to have to show up here. But yeah, this game scares me.
6:34
I I wouldn't touch the aside on this one if I had to.
6:38
Peter. Yeah, I I've got to say what I
6:41
said when I talked about Texas playing Georgia earlier this
6:44
year, which is stark. Cannot seem to scheme against
6:50
good teams. And so I like your bet here.
6:53
I actually like your team here because I think, I think Texas
6:58
is going to have a problem with this team.
6:59
I do, I even at home, I think they're going to have a problem
7:02
with this team. I I would not be surprised at
7:04
all if A&M went in there and beat them.
7:06
Period. Outright money line beat them.
7:09
I would not be surprised. I think this Texas team has
7:12
fundamental flaws when it comes to playing good teams that can
7:19
slow their offense down and can get them into a slugfest, a
7:24
close slugfest. And I think that's what's going
7:25
to happen here. You have a close slugfest and I
7:27
think that's going to be a problem for Texas.
7:29
So love the bet, love your team here.
7:32
I think this is this is ripe for the picking for them.
7:36
And as I said a couple weeks ago as well, I think that this Texas
7:40
thing is spiraling downhill. And I think Sarc's time at Texas
7:44
is coming to an end relatively soon.
7:46
And I think this is going to be a nail in that coffin.
7:48
So, and, and for somebody who was speaking positively about
7:51
Texas a year ago, that should say something.
7:55
So man, good bet. I love it.
7:57
I'm with you man. All right.
8:00
I don't know if that makes me feel good or not, No.
8:02
One should either, but I'm with you.
8:05
Oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man. Let's see if we can find one of
8:10
someone here. I was here.
8:10
How about this one here? LSU taking on Oklahoma, Oklahoma
8:16
6, four and one against the spread.
8:17
LSU three and eight against the spread.
8:20
Who? Which one you guys put this one
8:22
in? We both have something on this
8:24
one. No, go ahead, Pete.
8:27
I'll go first. So I was clearly a total guy. 36
8:31
1/2 to me feels low. Not that either one of these
8:35
teams has been a scoring juggernaut, but 36 1/2 is a low
8:40
number. You know, I, I'm not expecting
8:42
some kind of scoring fest, but if you think about a like a
8:46
score or something like 24 to 13, you know, 20 to 17, which is
8:52
entirely possible in this case and something that we very
8:56
expected in this case, you know, that's an over, right?
8:59
I mean, to me, this, this paints over all day long.
9:02
I'd be afraid to bet the under on this thing 'cause this feels
9:05
like a backdoor cover on that over all day.
9:08
So to me, this is this is a soft over it.
9:10
It's an over. But you know, with just the way
9:13
these teams have been playing at this is like even just kind of a
9:16
mild game gets you there. It doesn't really take very much
9:20
to get there. Garbage time score, something of
9:23
that nature. If you look across Oklahoma's,
9:27
you know, even just throughout the year, averaging somewhere
9:30
around 24 points a game, which is what I would expect them to
9:32
get here. It just plays into this number
9:35
really nicely. So unless something goes really
9:39
weird and sideways, you know, I mean, look at the weather.
9:44
I mean 55° perfectly fine. Yeah, a little windy, but that's
9:47
that's OK, right. I'm not looking for a, you know,
9:50
a kind of a aired out fest here or something of that nature.
9:52
So I think it plays in perfectly nicely.
9:55
I mean, this game fits really nicely into an over here.
9:58
So I got 1 unit on the over of 36 1/2 and I I think this is a
10:02
really nice number. I really strongly considered a 2
10:05
unit play on this but I'm always doing doing a one unit.
10:08
So anyway that's my thoughts. One unit 36 1/2 over Darren
10:12
Floor is yours. As soon as you said 24 to 13, I
10:16
was completely on board because I am laying the 10 with Oklahoma
10:20
here. And yes, it does scare me with a
10:22
total of only 36 1/2 to lay 10. But you look at LSU two and one
10:27
since Kelly got fired. Nussmeyer probably gonna come
10:30
out on the first injury report tomorrow as questionable,
10:33
probably go to doubtful. I don't think he's suiting up at
10:36
all. And even if he was close to
10:39
healthy, why would you put him out there against this defense?
10:41
I mean, 41 sacks, they're top five in the country, defensive
10:45
success rate, early downs and 3rd and 4th downs.
10:49
If you feeling frisky, I would take a look at maybe an Oklahoma
10:54
anytime defensive touchdown here and another reason I think
10:58
they're going to cover. I think in the second-half,
10:59
Oklahoma is going to pull away here and and hit Pete's over
11:03
Oklahoma on design QB runs. They're the 12th most successful
11:06
team in the country. LSU at stopping those particular
11:10
plays. They are bad 75th in the
11:13
country. So they're not going to keep
11:15
Matir down. So if you can play player props,
11:19
I'm not against the John Matir over his rushing total either.
11:22
I'm in New York. I have no idea what that is, but
11:24
if you're in a state that has it, they give that a look as
11:26
well. You know, you get to Week 14.
11:29
Motivation's a big thing. I'm not really sure what LSU is
11:32
playing for here. They're seven and four.
11:34
They're going to some mid level bowl regardless.
11:37
They don't really seem to be playing for this interim coach.
11:39
I mean, the most they've done is 23 points against Arkansas, who
11:42
as we know, has one of the worst defenses in the SEC, if not all
11:46
of college football. You know, nine against Bama, 13
11:49
against Western Kentucky last week.
11:50
I mean, this is an offense that's struggling with Van Buren
11:53
at the helm. Oklahoma, everything to play
11:55
for. Currently looking at probably
11:57
around an 8 seed in the latest rankings.
12:00
You know, they put an ass whooping on the Tigers here.
12:02
They're going to guarantee themselves a home game in the
12:04
first round. So I'm looking for Oklahoma at
12:07
home. I'm assuming it's senior day.
12:09
Last home game of the season, 24 to 13, maybe even a little bit
12:13
low. Yeah, I think if if Metir seems
12:16
every game he's getting a touch healthier and a little bit
12:19
better completion percentage. Not great last week, but he did
12:23
run for 60 yards. I expect him to to eclipse that
12:26
total here. I'm looking for something maybe
12:28
like 31 to 13. I I think Oklahoma's going to
12:32
roll here. So yeah, I do have one unit play
12:33
Oklahoma Lane, the 10. Love it.
12:36
Yeah, they both sound good. I mean, I don't know why Mesmer
12:39
would even suit up at this point.
12:41
I mean, you don't want to risk, you know, an elbow injury or
12:45
anything like that, so. Yeah, they didn't put him out
12:48
there against Western Kentucky. He's not coming out.
12:50
He's not playing. For this, you should be a top
12:52
five pick. Why?
12:53
Why hurt yourself? There's no reason to do that.
12:56
So all right, well, let's just keep this fun rolling.
12:59
This is one of my favorite games.
13:02
I've been to this game once and yeah, it's always a tight one.
13:06
I saw in Madison. So we got Wisconsin taking on
13:11
Gophers 26° in snow. Is there anything better for
13:15
that game than that? So this is going to be glorious.
13:20
3-7 and one against the spread from Minnesota, Six and five for
13:23
Wisconsin. I believe this is Pete's one of
13:26
yours. Take the floor, Sir, of.
13:28
Course it is. This is like right in my
13:29
wheelhouse. This is Big 10 football in
13:32
November. Snow is flying Paul Bunyan's Axe
13:35
Game. Two tunes that I bet all year
13:39
long. Under, under, under
13:41
individually. You put them on the field
13:43
together. Oh come on, this is an under all
13:47
day long. I I considered a three unit play
13:50
on this thing. I'm only doing one 'cause I
13:52
don't trust myself at this point, 'cause that three-year
13:53
has been so strange all over the place.
13:56
I don't trust anything at this point.
13:57
But I mean, honestly, I would probably give a kidney for this
14:00
thing. This is an under all day long
14:03
this year. Who the hell knows.
14:04
But I mean, these two teams, I don't know how this doesn't go
14:08
under. Wisconsin can't score if you
14:10
scored for them at times. Minnesota is an under it.
14:14
It's almost on meme at this point, like Wisconsin, sorry,
14:18
Minnesota under meme. I mean, that's what it is.
14:21
I mean, this is like a maybe a 2720 to 17 game, maybe maybe a
14:26
20 to 13 game. I mean, it's going to be
14:29
something like that. I mean, this game is
14:30
traditionally a snowy, not slugfest, right?
14:35
That's what they do. So that's what it's going to be.
14:37
That's what it always has been, has been.
14:39
That's what it's going to be. And so that 37 1/2 is a, is a
14:43
pipe dream. I I don't know how they get to
14:45
that number unless something absolutely weird happens.
14:48
Yeah, it could get to that number.
14:50
If it's so snowy that there's just fumble all over the place
14:53
and people are running back fumbles like some kind of just
14:56
oddball weird game, fine, right. I have no control over that,
15:00
that that's just weird. But I mean, if it's if it's just
15:02
a normal game, whether it's running the ball and it's snowy,
15:05
you know, it's going to be 20 to 13.
15:07
It's an under all day long. I don't even know what to say
15:10
about say about it 'cause these two teams are just screaming
15:12
under. So yeah, I, I mean, I'm doing a
15:15
one unit. I really should do a 2 unit on
15:17
this, but I didn't actually set it up that way.
15:19
So I'm just going to stay the way I have this set up. 1 unit
15:22
under 37 1/2 Darren. This game makes Bowling Green
15:28
UMass look like a New Year's Day bowl.
15:31
I, I'm not sure I would watch this if this was the only thing
15:33
on television. I would, I would take Wisconsin
15:38
the money line here if I, if I was going money line sprinkle
15:41
because getting a point and a half probably isn't going to
15:43
come into play. But Wisconsin's ever since they
15:47
said, oh, we're going to keep fickle, they've been playing a
15:50
little bit better. But yeah, I even if I had money
15:54
on this, I'm not sure I would watch it.
15:56
I would just God, no, yeah, ugly.
16:00
No, I can't. No, I I literally want to go
16:02
watch Bowling Green and UMass because this, by the way, it's
16:05
28 to 7. You think these?
16:06
Two my friend, you have a problem.
16:08
You have a serious problem. You think these two teams are
16:10
going to sniff 35 points in six quarters, much less the two that
16:13
Bowling Green and UMass? Live updates this is.
16:16
No, I can't. I can't watch this.
16:20
I yeah, I would rather watch Bowling Green UMass.
16:22
And this should be a total of like 27.
16:24
This is no, can't, can't. Interesting question.
16:28
The winner of this game will take the lead in the series 64
16:31
to 63 and eight ties. So that's a pretty interesting.
16:35
It's a shame. That the prize aren't a thing
16:37
anymore because this screams like 10-10 and that's it.
16:40
It does. It really does it.
16:42
Really. Does.
16:43
I mean God. That that number is ridiculously
16:48
high. To me, it's like there's no.
16:50
Like you're saying you like be on here.
16:52
Tell us how you really. I would I may sign off here and
16:55
bet that myself because terrible.
17:02
All right, who we got here we have oh, this is one of mine.
17:07
Hello. So all right, Utah, this is a
17:13
pretty interesting game. If if Texas Tech.
17:15
I believe if they were to lose and Utah wins and there is a way
17:24
they could back their way into this title game, I believe has
17:27
something to do with points scored in the division or
17:30
something like that with some weird divisional record or
17:35
something. I believe that's what I was
17:37
reading anyway. I'm sure it's wrong, but either
17:39
way, I like this. This is going to be a high
17:42
scoring game. Both teams like to swing it
17:44
around. Dan Pierce seems to be getting
17:47
better. He's been kind of asked at the
17:49
early part of the season, Utah, they're laying the 12 1/2.
17:53
And if I was going to bet on that, I would probably lay that
17:57
as well with some confidence. They're pretty, pretty
17:59
efficient. Kansas is, you know, Kansas.
18:04
So so I'm thinking this thing is going to be over pretty fast.
18:09
So I think it's 60 1/2. That's one of the higher overs
18:14
that I bet. I'm not really that concerned.
18:17
I'm thinking it's going to be, you know, something like a 4537
18:22
kind of thing. It's just going to be one of
18:23
those fireworks constantly. A couple big plays.
18:28
You know, Utah, you know, they score in bulk here.
18:30
They they might even get a defensive touchdown, a little
18:32
scoop and score action. So I am looking at this.
18:35
I like Utah. Hopefully they're some way
18:39
somehow and get me a buyout off of Hard Rock.
18:42
But I'm not sure it's going to happen.
18:43
I think it's a pretty long shot, but I like the over here 60 1/2
18:49
with Utah and Kansas. What do you think?
18:54
Yeah, I can't. I can't argue that.
18:56
I mean, I, I playing totals mostly.
18:58
I mean, I think I'll probably go over as well.
19:00
The weather's not really going to be a factor.
19:02
So it should play into both these teams scoring.
19:04
I, I would, I would expect a lot of scoring here.
19:06
So that's not that high of a number for two teams that tend
19:09
to score a lot. So yeah, I mean, I didn't dig
19:12
too deeply into this, but my gut would say that's that roughly 60
19:16
number. Yeah, I would probably lean
19:18
over. Yeah, I mean, didn't Utah play
19:21
in a game I had a total of 90 last week, like 5147 or
19:25
something like that? They obviously have no problem
19:28
scoring and no problem preventing, you know, another
19:32
team from putting up 50 point. I mean, yeah, this.
19:35
I agree with this too. As soon as you started talking,
19:37
I couldn't remember what you played, but I was like, I hope
19:38
you took over because I think that's where I would lead.
19:40
So we're all on the same page, which means 2413 Utah.
19:45
Yeah, 1910, here we go. Yeah, not even close.
19:48
So, and has there been another score in the Bowling Green game
19:54
here, Darren? Allow me to check while we're.
19:56
I mean, it must be, but it has. Been it's 28 to 7.
20:02
So yes, UMass has put a touchdown on the board.
20:04
OK. We're at 35 and counting, right?
20:06
The two-minute warning in the second quarter.
20:10
Ample time to go vomit. 2 minute time out.
20:13
You can't call it 2 minute warning.
20:14
It's not the NFL. I'm sorry.
20:15
And your view has been upheld. It's not confirmed anymore.
20:19
It's upheld. So yes, I forgot the rule.
20:22
My bed. So now we got Iowa, Nebraska,
20:27
oh, it's going to be another cold 120 mile an hour winds.
20:30
This is another one of mine and you know that.
20:32
It is. Another two teams, especially
20:35
Iowa, who I always bet under, and Nebraska since, well,
20:38
obviously I also also been going under on them.
20:42
Yeah. So questionable weather, windy
20:46
day 39 1/2, the number that I got when I when I play this.
20:53
Yeah. I mean, this is another game
20:55
that's screaming under to me. Iowa's defense still remains
20:59
pretty good. And Iowa, early in the season,
21:03
they were scoring. That seems to have tailed out a
21:05
little bit. Yeah.
21:07
I mean, this is another game that's that that speaks to a
21:09
like a 20 to 1721 to 1723 to 14 kind of game, all of which are
21:16
safely under. So this is just another game
21:19
that I actually considered a 2 unit play on this under it just
21:22
these it's oddly these two big 10 games this week.
21:25
Both of these kind of fit the profile of what I love for under
21:30
games. So both of them right clear,
21:33
clear to me under. So I'll probably lose them both
21:35
the way this way this this year is going.
21:38
But I mean to me this is like a absolute perfect profile of an
21:42
under for me. So one unit under 39 and a.
21:46
Half. I agree, these two quarterbacks
21:47
have been cheeks. I was watching some of the
21:50
Nebraska Penn State game. I don't know who that QB from
21:53
Nebraska is, but they've got some problems when he's running
21:55
the offense. And a handicapping note going
21:58
into the offseason. Anytime a highly touted FCS guy
22:01
comes to an FBS program, it does not matter because Gronowski's
22:05
been ass ever since he stepped foot in Iowa.
22:07
So yeah, this would. This screams another like 2117.
22:12
I it's God, when did the Big 10 become so unwatchable?
22:16
What the hell? Well, we have another Big 10
22:18
game coming up that is going to be incredibly wild, but these
22:21
first two ain't it. No wonder, oh gosh, wonder if
22:26
people have an opinion on that game that's.
22:28
What we? Vomit already.
22:29
I have salt and vinegar chips nearby for when he.
22:31
Gets salt. So we're going to do this game
22:36
here. We got Boston College and.
22:37
They get uglier. So funny you bring that up about
22:47
this game. For this game I'm going to bring
22:49
up a couple extra graphics we have.
22:51
This game falls in for the snooze fest of the week.
22:54
This game is going to be absolutely terrible.
22:57
I will not be watching. I did bet but I'm not going to
22:59
watch. Hardly did any research on his
23:02
bet at all. Folks, I just want to let you
23:04
know this game is also I'm going to do bet the money line here.
23:09
I got Syracuse at plus 130 on this.
23:14
Yeah, it's a money line sprinkle.
23:15
Here we are. I mean, I'm thinking Boston
23:18
College the night before. They're definitely going to
23:20
break curfew and go to the turning stone.
23:22
They're going to be at the blackjack table.
23:23
They'll be shooting craps on the roulette wheels.
23:25
They're going to be doing anything other than getting
23:27
ready for this game. It's the last place they want to
23:29
be is Syracuse. So I mean, they rather, you
23:32
know, so, you know, I I think this is just going to be one of
23:36
those go through the motion games.
23:37
I like Syracuse at home, just kids being, you know, they're,
23:43
they are kids. I know they're getting paid, but
23:44
you know, they're still young and dumb and they're going to be
23:46
like, hey, this game totally. They know the game's going to
23:49
suck too. I think Joe's going to run out
23:51
to the turning stone or whatever strip club is there or whatever
23:54
and just have a night of it. And just kind of like Varsity
23:58
Blues. They show they come up the next
23:59
day and just get their asses kicked.
24:00
So this is what I'm expecting. No statistical data to back this
24:05
up whatsoever other than they're young, they're stuck in Syracuse
24:09
around Thanksgiving, and they'd rather not be there after.
24:13
I believe they are one in 10, AM I I read that right?
24:16
Or two in nine at least. So yeah, I like Syracuse here.
24:21
Money line. Any thoughts on this?
24:23
This. I think the Bowling Green game
24:24
is better than this one. Bowling Green.
24:27
Game has been better than like three of the five games we've
24:29
covered already. I didn't spend 10 seconds of my
24:32
life looking at this game this weekend, so I'm out.
24:36
I mean, your analysis is awful. The hell.
24:41
It is. I'd rather be at the strip club
24:43
than watching this. I would.
24:45
Too. But, yeah, I don't know if
24:47
anybody watched Syracuse last week.
24:49
They played the fighting Marcus Freeman's.
24:53
Yeah, Notre Dame had 21 points on the board before the offense
24:56
even got out on the field. They had 35 points after the
25:00
offense was on the field for 36 seconds.
25:04
I mean, Syracuse is starting a lacrosse player at quarterback
25:07
that that tells you all you need to know.
25:09
And Boston College actually was playing well early in the
25:11
season. If Syracuse covers here for Tim,
25:15
I think Bill O'Brien gets fired Sunday morning.
25:17
Yeah, for sure. Couldn't have him to a better
25:20
guy. He's.
25:21
Agreed. Can we find a game that doesn't
25:28
suck because. Literally the.
25:30
Most depressing show we've ever done, I mean.
25:34
This is. Like a week 13 schedule.
25:37
I'm going to start crying this one.
25:39
Look at that. The the the the cat is chasing
25:41
the. Yeah, and ironically, Tim said
25:44
that up perfectly because this is my only other bed of the day.
25:47
I laid a unit Missouri laying 2 1/2 over Arkansas here couple
25:52
weeks ago. You guys may remembered I bet on
25:54
Missouri to cover the seven over Mississippi State.
25:57
And my analysis was simple, just run the friggin ball because
26:00
Mississippi State has the worst rush defense in the SEC.
26:04
Well, guess who's got the second worst rush defense in the SEC?
26:07
You are correct, Arkansas. So Ahmad Hardy, you had 300
26:12
yards two weeks ago, it's Mississippi State 200.
26:16
Distinct possibility here. And Privula came back.
26:21
He went from doubtful to questionable to playing.
26:24
Don't know why he would throw him out there against the
26:26
Sooners, but at least he's got a game back under his belt.
26:28
That's only gonna help be a little more balanced here.
26:31
But I don't even know why you have this guy throw 15 passes.
26:34
Hardy is gonna feast here. Missouri's defense actually just
26:37
played really, really well this year.
26:38
I remember, Pete, that was your only concern when you bet their
26:40
win total. But they've been playing lights
26:42
out. Yeah.
26:44
I, I just don't see how Arkansas is going to stay close. 2 1/2
26:47
seems like a, a gift. And it is heavily juiced.
26:51
All the books were like -115 -, 118, something like that.
26:54
But I'd rather do that than let this get to 3.
26:57
But this is a, this is a Ahmad Hardy game, man.
27:00
There. There's no reason to throw this
27:01
ball more than 15 times. Arkansas came from Lamad Hardy,
27:06
that's for sure. Yeah, I mean, this is this was
27:09
almost a 2 unit play for me as well, but something just yeah,
27:13
something just told me. Do you know what?
27:14
Just stick to one. But yeah, I I don't see how
27:18
Missouri doesn't win this one by at least 10.
27:20
I mean, Arkansas's defense is terrible.
27:22
Agree 100% that that defense is awful.
27:24
They're gonna they're gonna run all of that defense.
27:26
So 100% on board. Nice.
27:30
Yeah, I agree. That's all.
27:32
I think we're doomed again. I think not much We.
27:36
Can. Well, you know, I got a couple
27:37
stats that I can throw in if you were more more intense and just
27:40
run the friggin ball early down, success rate, the Missouri
27:44
offense is 40th in the country. Arkansas's defense is 127th.
27:47
What does that mean? Third of those shorts, if you
27:50
even get to 3rd down at all. Third and 4th down, success
27:53
rate, Missouri offense 23rd in the country.
27:55
Arkansas's defense 123rd in the country.
27:57
Missouri should not leave the field without scoring A
27:59
touchdown at least on five drives here.
28:01
This. I mean, Arkansas cannot stop
28:03
anybody. And it makes sense.
28:05
You suck on 1st and 2nd down, of course you're going to suck on
28:07
3rd down because teams are looking at third and one third
28:09
and two as opposed to 3rd and eight or third and 9.
28:12
I don't know what I'm odd Hardy's yardage prop is, but
28:14
it's probably high and it's probably juice to the over.
28:18
I would play it. This is a.
28:20
Feast all day long. Great, great bet all day long.
28:23
I mean, and see, he only got 57 yards against Oklahoma last
28:25
week. Yeah, he's, yeah, he's hitting
28:28
200 I think. That number is way short.
28:31
That number is way short. I thought so too.
28:33
I was just like do I want to do 2 units on this?
28:35
And I'm like Nope, something something is telling me not to
28:37
but let's run the ball man. That's it.
28:40
Simple analysis. Right.
28:44
All right. These last two are technically
28:46
with Pete. This is where the Pete's boy
28:48
Rich Rod here, I got this. A series is tied with West
28:51
Virginia, Texas Tech seven to seven be 45°, which it's about
28:57
25 to 30° less than it would be in Texas.
29:00
The line is 24 1/2 I believe. I'm going with your boy this
29:05
time, Pete. First thing you got to remember,
29:08
Big 12 dumpster fires, all kinds of craziness can happen.
29:12
They're going to be at home. It's going to be 25 to 30°
29:15
colder. They seem to be playing a little
29:17
bit better since the trash game that we saw them back in
29:20
October. They've come come around.
29:23
They seem to be able to score a lot.
29:25
Got what is the over under on this one?
29:28
Can you? Is that 60 I should have you
29:31
have? 53 1/2 up on the top, is that
29:34
correct? Wow.
29:36
I don't that's correct. I don't I got to pull it.
29:39
Yeah, that's what I'm saying too.
29:40
That's what I'm saying. Too.
29:42
That's that's a low, that's a low number.
29:43
That is low stand about that too.
29:47
I might do a 2 unit play on the over while we're sitting here
29:51
talking. But I know I I saw the 24 1/2.
29:53
I was thinking, you know, I would love for West Virginia to
29:57
win this game, but I don't think they're going to win this game.
29:59
But I think they're going to keep it closer, a lot closer
30:01
than that. I mean, my initial thought was
30:03
like, you know, 31, you know, 3121, something like that.
30:08
So maybe even 3117. So I like West Virginia with the
30:12
the 24 1/2 here. Rich Rod, hopefully he comes
30:15
through for me. And Pete, what do you think
30:18
about your boy here? I love my boy here.
30:20
I mean, they're they're probably not going to win this game.
30:22
I mean they, they. Don't have talent?
30:23
It'd be nice. But to your point, right, are
30:26
they going to score a couple touchdowns at home?
30:28
Yeah, they are right. So that over is really sweet and
30:31
compelling, right? So love that bear.
30:33
I love that over there because because of that, because yeah,
30:36
Texas Tech is going to score. Rich Rod is going to is going to
30:39
fire back. He's going to pull out his bag
30:41
of tricks like he does. And they've been playing better.
30:44
They're going to score a couple touchdowns.
30:45
Heck, they may score 3 at. Home.
30:47
Yeah, they may still, they may still lose by 20 or something
30:50
that that could very easily happen.
30:51
But that over is very tasty and the more fun thing, talk about
30:56
my boys. Wait till that portal opens
30:58
pretty soon here and see what my boy brings in there 'cause it's
31:01
going to be really interesting going forward.
31:02
But love that bet that over. It's really enticing.
31:05
If you're going to play that 2 unit and I might join you on
31:08
that, that's pretty interesting. I looked at this game and my
31:13
first thought was this game screams backdoor West Virginia
31:16
cover. I just see Texas Tech rolling
31:20
up, getting their, you know, clinching their spot in the Big
31:22
12 title game, getting up like 4113.
31:25
Here comes West Virginia with like a minute and a half to go,
31:27
just getting some nonsense. Touchdown to.
31:29
Make it 4120. I it just as soon as I saw
31:33
that's the first thing that hopped in my mind.
31:35
Backdoor cover. Love that, right?
31:38
That third touchdown late in the game?
31:40
Exactly Texas Tech. 'S got like 11 fans playing
31:43
deep. This just screams backdoor
31:45
cover. Tim hasn't had a nice backdoor
31:48
cover win in a while, so I. Think I'm one and three with
31:50
backdoor covers here I. Think you're about to hit two
31:53
and three man because this game just screams 1.
31:56
Well, I mean. Texas Tech pulls away.
31:57
If they're playing the Big 12 title game, nobody of importance
32:00
is going to be out there on the field.
32:02
Nope, absolutely not. I do want to let you know I did
32:04
just bet 2 units on the over on that game as well, so I I really
32:08
shouldn't have my phone this close because I'm liable to put
32:11
a bet in at any given time. But yes, I did bet on the over
32:17
here. 53 1/2 total. And I got to update the slide.
32:22
Well, I'm not right. You know, we can do.
32:25
We'll still use the one that we have.
32:26
Is that the end of the at the end of the show?
32:28
I'll add in. I'll get paid enough for this.
32:30
Yeah, Secretary's week. You better Take Me Out to lunch.
32:33
Bastard, I will buy you flowers. That's fine too, by the way.
32:36
It's 28 to 14. The over is only a point and a
32:43
half away from hitting, so they've already outscored
32:49
anything that Iowa and Nebraska are going to do this week
32:52
because they're not. Even both games combined.
32:57
All right, well, we got one game left.
32:59
I don't know if anyone would be watching this, the little game.
33:02
I don't know if anyone's heard of this rivalry.
33:05
This is Ohio State going to Michigan. 30° and snow.
33:11
Another perfect day for this game at its usual time slot.
33:16
We're talking Saturday, we're talking noon, we're talking hate
33:19
week. And the hate doesn't get much
33:20
bigger than this one. Ohio State 91 and one against
33:25
the spread this year, and Michigan is four and seven.
33:29
I think Pete had a ban on this, is that correct?
33:33
I'm already angry. Yeah.
33:34
Jesus Christ, I I am sitting on 2 schools of thought here.
33:40
Of course it's the the hated, the hated team, which I would
33:45
like to pummel every single time we play them.
33:48
So of course I would love to see them slaughter them.
33:53
We're not going to that that I just do not.
33:55
I don't see that in the cards, right.
33:57
Our offense has not been good enough.
33:58
Our defense has been there and not so I don't I don't think we
34:04
can beat them like we have the past number of years here.
34:07
I I, I, I think we're ripe for the losing.
34:10
That said, it's at home. It's snowy.
34:13
This game traditionally has been a slugfest, so I expect it to
34:18
remain close regardless of other issues that are in play here.
34:24
So 10, I actually got 10 1/2. That little hook was really
34:29
interesting to me, which is why I jumped on it.
34:32
So I took Michigan and the 10 1/2.
34:34
And as everybody knows who listens to this thing, I only
34:38
play totals. This is an exception because
34:42
it's Michigan, because it's this game, right?
34:44
So why I'm playing something different?
34:47
I, I am a bit nervous for this game.
34:49
I'm playing this game only because it's a hunch only
34:52
because it's Michigan, only because it's this game only, all
34:54
because all those other reasons, right?
34:56
I didn't need to do a bunch of research 'cause I know these
34:58
teams do well, I'm a little, I am a little concerned about this
35:02
game. I'm a little concerned that it
35:04
could come off the rails. And that's the other school of
35:06
thought with me 'cause I spent time in the last couple of weeks
35:10
and actually more than that, talking about my dislike of our
35:13
coaching staff at the moment and my displeasure with the the fact
35:18
that Underwood has not been developed the way I think you
35:20
should have been. So I would like to see them be
35:23
ushered out and see a new coaching staff be brought in.
35:28
So, I mean, would I cry a river if they got pummelled here?
35:33
Other than the fact that being pummeled by the Buckeyes is the
35:36
worst thing that could possibly happen to you as a whole?
35:40
So that is the issue, right? Like I, if I knew, if I knew it
35:47
would get him fired, I would swallow the pill and I'd be
35:52
fine. If I knew for sure that it would
35:55
get him fired, I'd say, you know what?
35:57
Beat us by 40, kill us at home. But I don't even know that would
36:01
be the case. We could still maybe lose by a
36:04
bunch and he wouldn't get fired, which would be bad, right?
36:08
So, because I don't know that, of course I want us to be
36:12
competitive. Shit, I'd love us to win here.
36:15
I don't think we're capable. I honestly don't.
36:18
I don't think we are the offensive capability to win this
36:21
game. I think our defense will hold us
36:23
in there, but I think eventually they'll get back against the
36:27
wall 'cause our offense doesn't have the ability to sustain
36:29
drives. So our defense will get tired,
36:32
right? And that's what's going to
36:33
happen. They're they're going to break
36:34
down, they're going to get tired.
36:36
That's going to be a problem. Do I think we can keep it within
36:40
1010 1/2? I hope so.
36:43
So that's why I'm making this bet because I this is a this is
36:45
a hope and dream bet. I hope so.
36:47
But I would not be surprised if we lost by more than this.
36:50
So I wouldn't suggest anybody else follow me on this bet.
36:53
This is a hope and dream bet. So I'm taking Michigan and the
36:57
10 1/2 here. Obviously I'm watching this
37:00
thing because this game means a lot to me every year, but we're
37:04
due for a loss anyway. So I'm not going to cry over if
37:07
we lose like a normal game, we lose like by 10 or 12 or 15 or
37:12
something. Fine, I'm not going to cry over
37:14
we're due a loss. Hell, they should have beat us
37:16
last year, right? So we're due a loss.
37:18
I'm perfectly fine with that. So I don't know.
37:22
So yeah, I'm I'm placing 1 unit 10 1/2 taking Michigan.
37:26
I am very unsure about this, but yeah, I I would love in my back,
37:33
back of my head to see a massacre and I'd love to see a
37:36
new coaching staff, but I'm not sure it's going to happen.
37:40
So that those are my thoughts. So my actual bet is Michigan
37:44
taking the 10 1/2 one unit. I'm moving on.
37:48
I would love nothing more than Michigan to win this game, if
37:52
for no other reason, see Dave Gordon, we get on there and just
37:54
troll Ohio State like he always does.
37:56
He gets puts on that that Michigan crown and everything.
37:58
He's like, can't beat Michigan. So.
38:02
But yeah, in this rivalry, I'm always Michigan.
38:06
So it's been that way forever. I don't think I've ever rooted
38:09
for Ohio State. I think I rooted.
38:10
I rooted from when they played Miami 20 years ago in that title
38:13
game when Miami got screwed and it was awesome.
38:16
But other than that, you know, I'm always against Ohio State.
38:20
So yeah, I hope it works out for you.
38:22
I think it can. I think this game's going to be
38:23
a lot. If it's if Michigan doesn't win
38:25
outright, it's I think it's going to be a closer game, maybe
38:29
by three or four points. So yeah, I like to bet Darren,
38:32
what do you think? Yeah, I mean, at 10 1/2, I would
38:35
be on Michigan as well. I mean, Pete, do you know the
38:37
status of the running backs for Michigan?
38:40
Haynes and. I don't they have.
38:42
They have been very secretive like that.
38:44
This week is like this. Whole.
38:46
Strategic BS thing where nobody says anything so you wouldn't.
38:51
You wouldn't know. You'll never know.
38:54
Yeah. I mean, I kind of was leaning
38:55
the under here. I think 44 1/2 is a little too
38:58
high. I thought the same.
38:59
OK, yeah, I thought that those Michigan running backs are
39:01
healthy. I don't see a scenario where
39:03
they're going to try and let Bryce Underwood win this game by
39:06
chucking 25 passes. The Ohio State defense could
39:10
probably feast, but you know what, so could Michigans.
39:13
I mean, I, you know, you don't know the status of Jeremiah
39:16
Smith and Carnell Tate either. I mean, it's just, it almost
39:20
feels like you're going in blind, you know, whichever way
39:22
you roll. But yeah, I just, I just think
39:27
the defenses are going to dominate here, which why the 10
39:29
1/2? That little bit of hook like
39:30
pizza, that that's huge. I I don't think this game gets
39:35
over 44 1/2. If I had to go anywhere, I would
39:39
go under here. I mean, I would try and wait
39:41
until you know, to see who's healthy first, but I'm on the
39:46
other. Which is odd that I that I
39:48
didn't want that I went away from the total on this game
39:50
because honestly this would be an under for me.
39:52
But I was like, that book was so enticing to me.
39:55
So I don't know, but I agree. With you absolutely not to play
39:58
the numbers man, I mean. If it snows like hell and it
40:01
could snow like hell, that'd be great.
40:03
That's the best thing that could happen for this game.
40:05
Let. Exactly.
40:09
All right, boys, let's move in. Let's start.
40:12
Hit the RPO segment. Darren, take us through it.
40:15
All right, your only Thanksgiving Day, Navy, your
40:18
only Thanksgiving Day game, I should say, for college Navy
40:20
getting 5 1/2 at Memphis, total of 58 1/2.
40:24
Ted, we'll start with you. Any thoughts?
40:27
If I bet on anything, I like the over here, but I like with the
40:32
offenses it looks, especially with Memphis, so I would lean
40:34
towards the over. Pete.
40:37
I don't hate the Navy. Plus 5 1/2 here.
40:41
I think Horvath plays. I agree with that.
40:43
If he does, I think Navy 5 1/2 is an excellent play for
40:45
Thursday night. Ole Miss Lane Kiffin, where are
40:50
you going to be Saturday afternoon right now?
40:53
Laying, stepping in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.
40:57
Total of 62 1/2. Pete, we'll start with you
41:00
because I know both you guys love you some old Miss.
41:03
Oh, he goes out with a bang. He scores 1000 points.
41:05
I lay those points all day long. Tim, I know it's a pass because
41:11
it's Lane Kiffin, but I'll give you the chance to.
41:13
Lane Kiffin equals pass possible money line sprinkle here.
41:17
Let's interesting. All right.
41:21
Georgia lying almost 2 touchdowns against Georgia Tech
41:25
total 59 1/2. This game is in Atlanta.
41:27
I believe these teams went what, 8 overtimes last year?
41:32
Georgia seems to be round into form 13 1/2.
41:35
Is that too high? I think it might be.
41:38
Tim, what are you doing? If I were to bet this Georgia
41:42
-13 1/2 Georgia Tech's been not the Tech we've been at the early
41:48
part of the season. So I like Georgia here covering
41:51
that. 8. Yeah, Georgia, I mean, the logic
41:56
speaks to laying the points, but man, these teams, teams play
41:59
close. So I would think about taking
42:02
those points just because these teams tend to play close.
42:04
Yeah, I agree with you, Miami. Are we going to have another
42:10
Mario Cristobal moment here? Laying 7 at Pittsburgh?
42:14
Total of 50 1/2. Pete, what do you think?
42:16
I'm not a pit believer. I think Miami's going to fire
42:19
Mama. Honestly I would lay both 7.
42:21
Tip. I am upset that this game is
42:24
being played at noon and not at 7:30 at night.
42:27
The high is going to be 36 at night.
42:31
I think the high was somewhere around 28.
42:33
I was hoping for 9° with freezing rain.
42:36
There is a chance we could still make the playoffs we're talking
42:39
about. I'm hoping it puts the dagger in
42:41
it and ends it. So yeah, I'm hoping it's somehow
42:47
the forecast for the night creeps up into the day, gets
42:49
into the 20s somehow, and Pittsburgh takes it out.
42:52
But I like the over 50 1/2 looks nice.
42:56
Yeah, I went back and forth on this game.
42:58
Like Pete said, this is a game Miami really should roll if they
43:01
want to get in. You need a big win here because
43:04
it's also a game where Crystal Ball could totally F his team's
43:07
CFP chances. Neither outcome would surprise
43:10
me, so I am running out the door of my local sports book and not
43:14
even touching this one. Clemson getting three points at
43:18
South Carolina, Total of 46 1/2. Jane, I know you love love you
43:23
some Dabo Sweeney. I do, and like he did a few
43:28
weeks ago with Louisville, I think he could dabo this up a
43:31
little bit. I think he could go in there and
43:33
win. I would take Clemson in the
43:35
three. They might actually win
43:36
outright. Yeah, money line sprinkle for
43:38
me. I'd take Clemson, Pete.
43:41
You know what? Why not South Carolina at home?
43:45
Kentucky the inspired Kentucky Wildcats getting three at
43:48
Louisville, total of 46 1/2. Louisville's been a dumpster
43:51
fire. There are a lot of people, a lot
43:53
of starters not playing this game for them.
43:56
Because of that, I would take the three with Kentucky Pete.
44:00
Same. I mean, I typically like this
44:02
Louisville team, but with that, with that issue, yeah, no.
44:05
Yeah, because of everybody with all the starters, I would just
44:07
pass on it all together and leave it alone because even with
44:10
the the over under, you know, it looks sort of over, but you
44:14
never know what's going to happen with who's going to be
44:15
playing. So I'll just pass on it all
44:17
together. The Ducks laying 7 at
44:20
Washington, total of 51 1/2. Tim, what do you got?
44:22
Oh love me some Washington. Take the over.
44:25
Oregon equals over 51 1/2 Take the over.
44:29
Wait. I mean agree over over and this
44:31
is great, but watch out for Washington at home and they can
44:33
be dangerous. Yep, it's an underrated home
44:36
field advantage they have. And I looked at that and then I
44:38
had, I double checked DraftKings.
44:39
I'm like, did I put 51 1/2? Is that correct?
44:42
It was correct. I think this is low as well.
44:45
Here's my oh God damn it, I'll make another bet.
44:52
The poppy of Mafia rolling into Tennessee, their last chance of
44:55
trying to make a case for the committee getting 2 1/2 at
44:58
Tennessee, total of 65 1/2. Pete, what do you think?
45:02
Man, I think they're going to try to make a case here.
45:04
So I like that 2 1/2. I like to see them give it a go.
45:07
So it'll be interesting, It'll be close.
45:09
Tim, yeah, I'm. Going to stick with Pavia Mafia
45:13
just because last week was a senior day and Theo Von went out
45:17
on the field with Diego, Pavia's mom announcing.
45:21
Yeah, it's great. Just because of that.
45:24
I love me some Miranda about here.
45:26
I take the 2 1/2. Yeah, I don't trust either team
45:30
here. I'm not.
45:31
I wouldn't touch this one and the Iron Bowl where crazy stuff
45:34
happens, the kick 6 and all kinds of nonsense.
45:38
Alabama laying 6 at Auburn. Ashton Daniels announced today
45:43
as the starter for Auburn so they can protect Deuce.
45:46
Knight ran for like 800 yards against Mercer last week, but he
45:49
will not be playing. It'll be back to Ashton Daniels.
45:52
Tim. Oh, Tim's still betting.
45:53
Pete, what do you think? Nah, Bama all day.
45:57
Yeah, I, I, I agree. I just, you know, they, I think
46:02
if they, I believe they win and they're in the SEC title game.
46:07
So I don't think they're going to leave anything to chance
46:10
here. I think if they get the chance
46:11
to roll, they are going to roll. Yes, I agree.
46:14
Alabama. OK, we're in agreement a lot
46:17
this week. This show sucked.
46:22
Oh thanks, that kind of sucks too.
46:26
That's like the only time you've had it this year.
46:28
Stop complaining. Hell is that guy?
46:29
Oh jeez, you should be fired. I be rip your picks down there
46:36
all. Right.
46:36
Well, here's my losing picks for the week.
46:38
So on Friday, Iowa, Nebraska under 39 1/2.
46:42
I mean, so that one, Wisconsin and Minnesota under 37 1/2, as I
46:46
mentioned, those are two. Absolutely perfect unders to
46:51
make LSU, Oklahoma over 36 1/2 and then the game Michigan over
46:57
Ohio State taking that 10 1/2 points.
47:00
Those are my best for the week. Right, I've got Texas A&M and
47:04
Texas over 51 1/2. I also have Utah and Kansas over
47:09
60 1/2. I have West Virginia plus 24 1/2
47:14
against Texas Tech and I also put in a 2 unit play of over 53
47:18
1/2 for that game. I have Syracuse money line plus
47:22
130 over Boston College and as of 15 seconds ago I have the
47:27
Oregon Washington 2 units. Over. 51 1/2 Woo Oregon equals
47:33
over. I have.
47:37
And I'm disappointed in myself. Tim, are you making like a 7th
47:40
or 8th bed or should I just RIP my 2 off while you?
47:44
No, I'm, I'm good. I'm I'm going to turn my phone
47:47
across the room. There you go.
47:49
That'll save you. All right, I'm taking the
47:52
Sooners. Despite the low total of 36 1/2.
47:54
I think the offense comes together.
47:56
Here I am laying the 10, taking them to cover against LSU and
48:01
Missouri. I'm odd.
48:02
Hardy -2 1/2 over Arkansas. Run the ball.
48:06
That's it. Run the ball.
48:08
Run the damn ball, the damn ball.
48:11
All right, everybody that's going to wrap up this episode of
48:15
hate week here for targeting winners.
48:17
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