Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD (& Why Cuba Is Next After Iran) + Stock Market News 05 March 2026

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD (& Why Cuba Is Next After Iran) + Stock Market News 05 March 2026 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Gold just did something it hasn't done since 1979.
0:04
SPEAKER_00: And if history repeats, and it always does, what comes next is literally unthinkable.
0:10
SPEAKER_00: But scroll through social media right now, and half the people are telling you gold is going to the moon, the other half are screaming bubble.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: So who do we believe?
0:19
SPEAKER_00: Here is my answer.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: And Winston's answer.
0:21
SPEAKER_00: Don't believe anyone.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: Believe the charts.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: If you've ever been burned by listening to some guru instead of looking at the actual data, drop a guru in the comments, because you're not alone, I assume.
0:34
SPEAKER_00: So before we go any further, let me give you the single most important framework I use.
0:40
SPEAKER_00: This is what I learned from my Wall Street mentors, guys who worked in banking for decades, who've seen every crisis, every crash, every so-called black swan event of the last 50 years.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: There is always a fog of war.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: Always.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: Social media right now is drowning in information that may be right, wrong, fake, whatever.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: And everyone is now an expert on gold, the Middle East, whatever the latest thing is, right?
1:05
SPEAKER_00: So here's the filter that actually works.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: Don't watch the news, watch the charts.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: Follow the money flows.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: The news tells you what happened yesterday or what somebody wants you to think happened.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: And the charts tell you what's about to happen tomorrow.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: Let me show you what I mean.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: Before the Iran strikes even hit mainstream news, before CNN, before Fox, before anyone was talking about it, money was flowing into gold ETFs.
1:33
SPEAKER_00: And that was the smart money, the big money positioning.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: If you wait for the headlines, you're already too late.
1:39
SPEAKER_00: And maybe you don't believe me, but let me show you.
1:41
SPEAKER_00: This is a chart of gold.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: I used the Trade Vision chart here, which is the app that we built, linked down below.
1:47
SPEAKER_00: And I see here a pattern that I always describe as a heartbeat pattern.
1:51
SPEAKER_00: That's the pattern that you get before a Bigly breakout.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: And then when did we actually start breaking out of that?
1:59
SPEAKER_00: It was late August 2025.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: It wasn't just before the Iran war kicked off or any other war kicked off.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: Institutional volume exploded and gold has been on an absolute tear ever since.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: Is it crashing?
2:18
SPEAKER_00: In my humble opinion, no.
2:19
SPEAKER_00: We're going to get into that a little bit more in detail.
2:22
SPEAKER_00: But what I want you to see is that there is always this pattern.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: You can apply the same to gold miners, by the way.
2:28
SPEAKER_00: They also did not merry heartbeat dance down here.
2:33
SPEAKER_00: Almost perfectly textbook.
2:35
SPEAKER_00: Breakout kicked in a little early, actually, around April last year, which is around about when we started buying gold miners, right?
2:42
SPEAKER_00: Not because we are so smart, or Winston's very smart, but because we understand how to read the money flows.
2:50
SPEAKER_00: But you could just keep watching CNBC and wondering why you're always buying the top.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: So there is something.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Now here's something.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: Well, if you know what COMEX is, put Comex in the comments.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: For those who don't, Comex is where paper gold trades, it's where banks and institutions bet on gold prices without actually owning any physical metal.
3:11
SPEAKER_00: And right now the divergence between paper gold and physical gold is getting bigger and Comex is starting to lose control.
3:21
SPEAKER_00: Now we track that in our community, uh, one through premiums, but also simply through Zilla.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: Up here, Comex silver stress very, very high.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: Why?
3:30
SPEAKER_00: Because if you scroll into this, you see that the silver they're holding is running out at a fairly alarming rate.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: Right?
3:40
SPEAKER_00: We have a Comex Silver Stress Index.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: It's at high.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: That's important.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: But again, we'll get back to that in a moment.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: What I wanted to realize is when Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan are buying, they don't announce it on X, they don't post TikToks, they just buy quietly and consistently.
3:59
SPEAKER_00: And by the time they go onto TV or social media or anywhere else, well, they're probably doing what is generally known on World Suit as selling their book, as in they're trying to talk up what they already earn.
4:13
SPEAKER_00: And then six months later, everyone's wondering why they missed the move, right?
4:17
SPEAKER_00: It's kind of odd how that really works again and again and again.
4:20
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is exactly what I teach inside of our academy.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: And if you're wondering who the heck I am, my name is Felix Breen.
4:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm an ex-investment banker.
4:28
SPEAKER_00: I'm also the founder of the GOAT Academy, where my Wall Street mentors have taught thousands of people over the last six years how these money flows actually work.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: And we also have Winston back here who does all our uh metals research.
4:46
SPEAKER_00: Um, the reason everyone's feeling worried about the market right now is that they have no plan.
4:50
SPEAKER_00: They have no plan when to take profits, no plan when to cut losers.
4:54
SPEAKER_00: Do you think Wall Street bankers are wondering which button to press every morning?
4:59
SPEAKER_00: Do you think they show up every morning and go, ooh, what do you think we should do?
5:02
SPEAKER_00: They think it's gonna go up or down.
5:03
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
5:03
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
5:05
SPEAKER_00: Brad.
5:06
SPEAKER_00: Um Chad, probably.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: No, they don't do that.
5:09
SPEAKER_00: They have rules.
5:11
SPEAKER_00: If you want to learn those rules, I'll teach them to you on this video because it'll be stupidly long.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: Join me live on Saturday.
5:17
SPEAKER_00: And I will teach you Wall Street's rules for selling.
5:21
SPEAKER_00: Because selling is where you take profits.
5:24
SPEAKER_00: Selling is where you protect your money and your capital.
5:27
SPEAKER_00: And if you have those rules, guess what?
5:30
SPEAKER_00: You're gonna sleep like a baby, like Winston back then.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: Actually, sleeping like a baby is a strange analogy, isn't it?
5:36
SPEAKER_00: Do babies sleep that well?
5:38
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: Sleep like a golden retriever, you see.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: So there's a link down below.
5:43
SPEAKER_00: Felix Rensonor slash training.
5:45
SPEAKER_00: Sign up, be early, because the room tends to get full, and then people can't get in because they are tardy beyond time.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: Now, to understand what's truly unthinkable about gold right now, you have to understand oil.
6:01
SPEAKER_00: Because every major war in modern history was decided by one thing.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: Who controlled the fuel, the oil?
6:09
SPEAKER_00: Again, it's not a conspiracy theory.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: This is documented history, and once you see the pattern, just like on the stock charts, you can't unsee it.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Think World War II.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm German.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: Um Rommel, the desert fox.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: He was crushing the Allies in North Africa.
6:25
SPEAKER_00: He was kind of unstoppable until he wasn't.
6:28
SPEAKER_00: He ran out of fuel at El Alamein.
6:32
SPEAKER_00: He just stopped.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: And then Allied bombers started to and then Allied bombers started systematically destroying Germany's fuel plants.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: So what happened?
6:42
SPEAKER_00: Well, by 1945, German aviation fuel produced, by 1945, German aviation fuel production had collapsed from 180,000 tons per month to 11,000 tons per month.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: So they were producing planes, but they didn't have any fuel to fly them, right?
6:58
SPEAKER_00: Turns out tanks without fuel are sort of not very useful.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: Look at Japan, same story.
7:04
SPEAKER_00: They attacked Pearl Harbor because the US had cut off their oil imports.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: Then they invaded Southeast Asia for fuel, particularly Indonesia, and the moment their supply lines were cut, you know, that was it.
7:16
SPEAKER_00: They were over.
7:17
SPEAKER_00: No oil, no empire.
7:19
SPEAKER_00: It's that simple.
7:20
SPEAKER_00: If you look at the 1973 oil embargo, OPEC weaponized oil against the West.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: They cut oil supplies by 5% per month, right?
7:31
SPEAKER_00: Oil prices went from$3 to$5.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't sound like a lot, but obviously inflation has elevated them a lot.
7:38
SPEAKER_00: And what happened to gold?
7:39
SPEAKER_00: What happened to gold in the same time period?
7:42
SPEAKER_00: Well, gold went from$97 to$193,$183 in 12 months.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: It went up 89%.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: Now you're starting to wonder.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: Now you're starting to understand why I'm rambling on about oil, right?
7:56
SPEAKER_00: Nobody told retail investors in 1973 this was coming.
8:00
SPEAKER_00: The charts did.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: I've got one more for you.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: 1979, Iran revolution.
8:05
SPEAKER_00: And this is what matters the most.
8:07
SPEAKER_00: Oil supply shock hits.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: Global panic.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: And what happens to gold?
8:14
SPEAKER_00: Gold went from$226 to$850 in one year.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: 276% up, like a meme stock.
8:23
SPEAKER_00: And that's the parallel's missing.
8:25
SPEAKER_00: The chart patterns right now are almost identical to 1979.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: I'm not telling you to run out and buy gold.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: I'm telling you to understand the pattern so you can make better decisions and you can sleep like a gold retriever.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: If you want me to dive deeper into the 79 parallel, put a 1979 down below and we might just do a video on that.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: But let me give you one more.
8:49
SPEAKER_00: More recent.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: Oil spiked 140%, gold jumped 10% in just weeks.
8:56
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine war, well, gold broke for$2,000 in 2022.
9:03
SPEAKER_00: So are you starting to see the pattern now?
9:07
SPEAKER_00: Every single time.
9:08
SPEAKER_00: Oil supply shock, gold surges somewhere between 15 to 90% within 3 to 12 months.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: Now, I'm not a registered financial advisor.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: I'm not telling you to buy gold.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: I'm telling you understand the rules and the patterns, understand the history so you can make better decisiones.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: Supply shock and oil, gold tends to surge.
9:35
SPEAKER_00: Now, right now, the Strait of Homoos has disruption risk.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: 20% of the global oil flows through there, which is kind of a lot.
9:44
SPEAKER_00: And Iran says it's blocked, the US says it isn't.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: Lloyds of London, who insure all the oil ships around the world, they said war coverage is cancelled, which is exactly why you wanted war coverage, isn't it?
9:58
SPEAKER_00: Insurers are wonderful, aren't they?
9:59
SPEAKER_00: You are sick, I'm gonna cancel your insurance.
10:01
SPEAKER_00: That's basically what that is.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: So Ed Campel has stopped in, El Presidente, and he said, we are going to provide insurance to all shipping lines going through that part of the world, uh, and it'll be, you know, very reasonable.
10:16
SPEAKER_00: So the government's stepping in to provide insurance because the Lloyd's chaps are like, no, no, no, no, no.
10:22
SPEAKER_00: I've actually visited Lloyds, you should do that.
10:23
SPEAKER_00: You can tour them.
10:24
SPEAKER_00: One of the old members will take you around.
10:27
SPEAKER_00: Good fun.
10:28
SPEAKER_00: But but all it takes is for a couple of drones to set a couple of oil tankers on fire, and I can tell you oil is gonna hit the roof, uh, just like you know, Saudi Assilities got attacked, uh, blow up a few more of those.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: Um and it looks very, very different uh in terms of oil prices, which is why we're talking about oil here.
10:48
SPEAKER_00: Now, here is where it gets unusual.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: Because everyone is focused on Iran right now, right?
10:56
SPEAKER_00: Even Winston is tracking the Iran story.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: But if you follow the money, if you follow the oil, you might see the next domino before it falls.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: And that domino might well be Cuba.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: Because Cuba gets most of its oil from Venezuela, and that's been the deal for years.
11:13
SPEAKER_00: Cheap Venezuelan crude in exchange for Cuban doctors and some sort of general support.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: But when the US restricted Venezuelan oil exports, well, they've taken over Venezuela, sorry, liberated Venezuela, um, squeezed them out.
11:26
SPEAKER_00: Apparently, actually, one of our coaches is a Venezuelan, and he's apparently very happy about this.
11:31
SPEAKER_00: So I'm hoping it's going to give them a better life down there.
11:34
SPEAKER_00: But what happened to Cuba?
11:36
SPEAKER_00: Well, they have a fuel crisis, blackouts, the economy is collapsing.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: So the official story is always about uh, you know, liberacion and all that kind of stuff.
11:45
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but it's like whoever controls the oil controls the outcome.
11:49
SPEAKER_00: Now, think about this.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: Cuba sits 90 miles from Florida, 90 miles, right?
11:54
SPEAKER_00: That's less than most people's commute, apparently.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: Uh, at least it feels less than, you know, an LA commute.
12:01
SPEAKER_00: And it's sitting on top of a strategic Caribbean shipping lane.
12:05
SPEAKER_00: Every tanker going in the Gulf of Mexico passes near Cuban waters.
12:09
SPEAKER_00: So this is strategic geography.
12:12
SPEAKER_00: And if you've been paying attention to our little history lesson, you know what happens when great powers start moving pieces on the oil transport.
12:20
SPEAKER_00: Look at the pattern of oils.
12:22
SPEAKER_00: Iraq, oil, Libya, oil, Iran, oil, Venezuela, oil, right?
12:25
SPEAKER_00: Venezuela's done, Iran's in progress.
12:27
SPEAKER_00: Cuba, next.
12:30
SPEAKER_00: That could of course all be coincidence.
12:31
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I could just be a ludic, it's entirely possible.
12:34
SPEAKER_00: But if I follow the money evidence, what the charts are showing, shipping route disruptions are spiking, insurance is being cancelled, insurance costs for Caribbean tankers are going up, capital is flowing out of Caribbean exposed assets.
12:50
SPEAKER_00: So Iran isn't the end here, it's the beginning.
12:53
SPEAKER_00: If you follow the oil, not the news, Cuba is the next flashpoint.
12:58
SPEAKER_00: If you want me to drop, if you want me to do a whole deep dive on the Cuba story and the investment opportunities come out of that, which sounds a little unethical, but it's it's true, then drop a Cuba in the comments and let me know and we'll take that into account.
13:11
SPEAKER_00: I'll send Winston off to do some real research.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: Now, how do we navigate this in any other conflict?
13:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, I mentioned the fog of war, right?
13:19
SPEAKER_00: The real war zone seems to be your social media feed because all sides are making up whatever and putting it out there.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: Everyone's an expert, everyone has a prediction, right?
13:28
SPEAKER_00: Winston showed up this morning and said, Felix, I am now a Middle East expert.
13:33
SPEAKER_00: Um, and everybody has a prediction, right?
13:35
SPEAKER_00: And most of them are trying to scare you into, well, possibly selling what you're doing, and the other half are trying to pump you into buying whatever they've already bought.
13:43
SPEAKER_00: So let me give you the only filter that actually works, in my humble opinion.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: You can be the judge of that.
13:48
SPEAKER_00: And I think it's what separates the people who make money from those who just freak the heck out, right?
13:54
SPEAKER_00: First, watch the charts.
13:56
SPEAKER_00: So step one, stop watching the news.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: I know that sounds extreme.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: Somebody like lost their marbles in my comments yesterday.
14:02
SPEAKER_00: They said, Felix, how long do you tell people to stop watching the news?
14:05
SPEAKER_00: Are you telling people they shouldn't be informed?
14:07
SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't think there is any benefit in knowing exactly where a missile struck and how many people died and how many planes were in the air.
14:15
SPEAKER_00: How does that exactly make you into a better person or better decision maker or make you into a better investor?
14:22
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: It just fills your head with a load of noise, right?
14:25
SPEAKER_00: So if you think this is extreme, hear me out.
14:27
SPEAKER_00: The news is designed to get clicks, it is designed to scare you, it is designed to make you feel things, and what's not designed to and it is not designed to help you make money, right?
14:39
SPEAKER_00: Look at this.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: Let's just go back to the gold chart.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: Gold moved in September, right?
14:46
SPEAKER_00: That was the money flow.
14:48
SPEAKER_00: And I'll tell you how much it's moved since our breakout point there.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: It's up 48%, right?
14:55
SPEAKER_00: Gold miners will be a lot more than that because they're a little bit more exciting.
15:00
SPEAKER_00: As uh some people might might say, they're up 140%, right?
15:04
SPEAKER_00: Look at aerospace stocks.
15:07
SPEAKER_00: Again, can you start to see the breakout pattern?
15:10
SPEAKER_00: Anybody?
15:10
SPEAKER_00: It takes a little longer than a three-minute video to do that, but yeah, that was the breakout point.
15:15
SPEAKER_00: And some people are gonna say you can only do it in hindsight.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, um, yeah, that's why World Suits are making money for 100 years or longer.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's up 50%.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: What about energy stocks?
15:25
SPEAKER_00: Some of you are now familiar with my heartbeat pattern, right?
15:29
SPEAKER_00: There she is.
15:31
SPEAKER_00: And she's a beauty.
15:33
SPEAKER_00: And energy stocks are also up about 20% in the last month and a bit.
15:40
SPEAKER_00: So the charts aren't trying to sell you anything.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: They just show you where the big money is flowing.
15:45
SPEAKER_00: So watch the charts, don't watch the news.
15:47
SPEAKER_00: Second, ignore predictions, including mine, yes.
15:52
SPEAKER_00: Because nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow.
15:54
SPEAKER_00: Not me, not CNBC, not the guy with the crypto millionaire in his bio, not the Lumbo Bro, maybe the golden retrievers.
16:01
SPEAKER_00: I find them very reliable.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh but institutional money moving into, say, gold mines, like we just saw in GDX, that tells you something.
16:10
SPEAKER_00: When money flunts into defense stocks, we just looked at ITA together, right?
16:14
SPEAKER_00: That defense ETF here, this one, right?
16:17
SPEAKER_00: That tells me where the money is flowing.
16:20
SPEAKER_00: Or when I look at the energy majors as we just did, Exxon, Chevron, and so on, I saw the money flow into that.
16:28
SPEAKER_00: Not because I'm smarter than you, just because I had a lovely Wall Street mentor who taught me where to look and how to look and what that then actually means.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: So you want to learn institutional flows, join me on Saturday, Felix Francislog slash training.
16:42
SPEAKER_00: It'll be live, it'll be fun, it'll be uh probably about an hour and a half, maybe two hours of stuff you've never looked at before in your life.
16:52
SPEAKER_00: And then step three, when a headline makes you want to do something, pause, look at history.
16:58
SPEAKER_00: One of my mentors always says to me, you know, I have a bright, shiny idea, and I also have those.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: And I say, hey money, this has happened, what do you think about this?
17:05
SPEAKER_00: And he says, Why don't you sleep on it, Felix?
17:09
SPEAKER_00: He's our head coach.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh, brilliant man, and and he's usually right because every time you have this urge to do something now, it is usually a bad idea.
17:17
SPEAKER_00: But if you understand the pattern, you don't need to predict the future.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: You just position for probabilities.
17:24
SPEAKER_00: And in my humble opinion, the difference between people who win and people who lose isn't that winners can see the future.
17:30
SPEAKER_00: It's that winners have a framework, they have rules, they follow the freaking money and they turn off the noise.
17:36
SPEAKER_00: I don't have a television, I haven't known one for 20 years, I don't watch the news, I don't watch Bloomberg, I don't watch CNBC, I don't watch Fox.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: And maybe that surprises you.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: It is not making you into a better investor.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: It's making you into a more scared, more distracted person who thinks he's doing something useful.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: Just never watch the news again, honestly.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: If you just try, try it for a week.
18:01
SPEAKER_00: Try it for a week.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: And now, right now, it's it's hard.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: If you can do it right now, you've got some real like backbone, right?
18:07
SPEAKER_00: You've got some real discipline.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: But you want to be asking yourself, okay, it's all very well, Felix, no news.
18:11
SPEAKER_00: But what do you actually do with the information you have?
18:14
SPEAKER_00: Well, knowledge without action is entertainment.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: We're not here to be entertained, are we?
18:19
SPEAKER_00: You're here to protect and to grow your wealth.
18:22
SPEAKER_00: So let me show you the safe haven sectors we get during these crises, which come up again and again and again.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: We have gold and gold miners, which have a higher risk profile than gold, naturally.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: Uh, why is this going up?
18:36
SPEAKER_00: Well, physical demand is outstripping how much paper there is.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: Comex is starting to lose control, more so on silver than on gold, I must add.
18:44
SPEAKER_00: And again, not something you can track in our little community here with our stress index for for gold and silver.
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Gold isn't actually that bad.
18:54
SPEAKER_00: Um, but also simply just knowing how much money there is around and how gold is trading against inflation and all these kinds of things is very, very, very useful, if you ask me.
19:05
SPEAKER_00: More importantly, central banks are buying record amounts, right?
19:08
SPEAKER_00: If you look at the oil shock of 1979, now this one won't be as big as that.
19:13
SPEAKER_00: Why not?
19:14
SPEAKER_00: Because the US is the largest oil exporter in the world.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: So the US, in a strange way, uh benefits from higher oil prices, but also can offset themselves against oil shocks.
19:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh, oil goes to$100, or the fracking thing starts again and that kind of stuff.
19:33
SPEAKER_00: So we're looking at a more gradual thing, maybe a little bit more like 2008, where you know we still had 17% gains over three years.
19:40
SPEAKER_00: Again, I'm not promising the outcomes because I can't see the future.
19:43
SPEAKER_00: I just can really see the pattern.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: Silver has a much more serious supply deficit.
19:49
SPEAKER_00: Industrial demand is tremendous.
19:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh, every single missile being fired there has silver in it, every single jet, every single drone, every warship, every submarine would not be flying or swimming about without silver in it.
20:03
SPEAKER_00: Um, and if you look at 1979, silver outperformed gold three to one.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: Something to think about.
20:09
SPEAKER_00: And again, if you look at our silver stress here, COMEX, COMEX is uh running out of silver, which basically means in theory, silver should go up a lot.
20:18
SPEAKER_00: Energy majors think um ticker symbols the XLE, which is the ETF or XOM or CVX.
20:25
SPEAKER_00: Um, supply disruptions can be good for these guys.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: In 1991, energy stocks went up 34% over the next 18 months.
20:32
SPEAKER_00: Now they did blow up uh uh Kuwait's Kuwait's uh oil export facilities.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: Um we haven't quite seen that yet, although we're starting to see some damage on the Saudis, which of course is serious.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: Then you have defense place.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: Um defense aerospace is always the same, same sector.
20:50
SPEAKER_00: We've been bullish on that for quite a long period of time.
20:53
SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, since about April, really.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: So is it too late now?
20:57
SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily.
20:58
SPEAKER_00: You just missed out on a fairly nice run-up.
21:02
SPEAKER_00: But that's okay.
21:02
SPEAKER_00: I miss it on stuff all the time.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: It's only 50% up.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: It could go up a lot more.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: The the pattern there is looking pretty nice from where I'm sitting.
21:09
SPEAKER_00: Again, not telling you what to buy it.
21:11
SPEAKER_00: But governments don't cut military budgets ever, especially not during war.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: Um, after 9-11, defense outperformed the SP very significantly by 47% over the last over the next three years.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: And then you have utilities.
21:24
SPEAKER_00: What why why utilities?
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Um, it's just defensive, it's domestic, it's US-based, it isn't going to get disrupted at Peltzpace dividends, so it's boring.
21:32
SPEAKER_00: But when people get freaked the F out, they want boring.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: And then you have a pattern here.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: So you have a four phase recovery pattern, as I like to call it.
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Phase one is shock.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: We are just still in that, I would say, because it seems to get a little bit bigger every day.
21:48
SPEAKER_00: Panic sailing, uh, headlines are screaming, oil and gold are spiking, the market's dropping, which is what we're seeing.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: Everyone's going, but why?
21:56
SPEAKER_00: Why, why me?
21:57
SPEAKER_00: Right?
21:57
SPEAKER_00: Um, it's just part of the pattern, it's part of The setup.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: Absorption, this is where it starts to kind of get a little bit more calm.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: Um, the safe havens, your oil stocks, your utilities often peak here.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but retail investors are selling here, which is the worst time.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: So they've absorbed the 10, 20% down.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: Now they're selling.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: Because again, you don't have any selling rules.
22:20
SPEAKER_00: I'll fix that for you.
22:21
SPEAKER_00: Come and join me on Saturday, FelixFenzer.org slash training.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: Honestly, it's the most important skill.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: I know you all want to know what stock should I buy?
22:29
SPEAKER_00: It's not about that.
22:30
SPEAKER_00: It's about what stock should I sell.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: That's where you make the money.
22:32
SPEAKER_00: You don't realize the profits until you actually sell something.
22:35
SPEAKER_00: And that's uh, you know, the whole uh diamond hand idiocy that's come out of social media the last two years and makes people think they shouldn't sell stuff.
22:44
SPEAKER_00: No, why do you buy a stock?
22:46
SPEAKER_00: Is it for the love of the stock?
22:47
SPEAKER_00: No, it's not, is it?
22:48
SPEAKER_00: What do you want?
22:49
SPEAKER_00: You want something better, you want to retire earlier, you want to do something nice for your family or go on a trip or a you know, buy a Lambo if you must.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: And then we have phase three, which is when the market starts to recover, typically four to eighteen months into it, really depends on the conflict.
23:06
SPEAKER_00: And we are starting to move out of safe havens again into growth stocks.
23:11
SPEAKER_00: The problem is the retail investors are still stuck in safe havens because they've got PTSD and they're not selling them because they don't feel safe here, and then they see that decline.
23:21
SPEAKER_00: So, what most people do is they really cock this up royally.
23:25
SPEAKER_00: And so, what do they do?
23:27
SPEAKER_00: Well, they right now they sell growth because it's tanking, right?
23:33
SPEAKER_00: They might then buy safe havens, and then what do they do?
23:38
SPEAKER_00: Well, so growth went down, right?
23:40
SPEAKER_00: They lost money on that.
23:41
SPEAKER_00: Safe havens then go down, they're losing money on that, they then sell those, um, and they just do it all too late.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: So it is it is about not timing the market, but it is about following the patterns in a respectful way for your money, right?
23:56
SPEAKER_00: So that's where the money is made.
23:57
SPEAKER_00: And then we get our performance because the market will hit new highs.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: It will hit new all-time highs, and that happens every single time.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: In my humble opinion, that's gonna happen again.
24:07
SPEAKER_00: Winston, is the market gonna hit all new new all-time highs?
24:10
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
24:11
SPEAKER_00: What do you think that look means?
24:13
SPEAKER_00: You never it.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: Um, so here, historical proof that does not, of course, predict the future, past performance isn't, you know, and all that stuff.
24:20
SPEAKER_00: Um, we got new highs after 79, we got new highs after 99, we got new highs after 2001, we got new highs after 2022.
24:28
SPEAKER_00: And those who lost watched the news and panicked.
24:32
SPEAKER_00: Those who won followed the charts and stayed patient and disciplined and rules-based.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: So, in my opinion, the unthinkable thing here isn't that gold is gonna go up, the charts are pretty clear.
24:46
SPEAKER_00: It's just that most people are still watching the news, panicking, and making the worst decisions at the wrong moment.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: And I think the fact that you're still watching this means you are smarter than this, you are better than this, and you know you deserve better than this.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: The problem is just that you've never been taught it because financial education doesn't seem to really exist out there.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: Uh certain people might quite like it that way.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: So turn off the TV, open the charts, follow the money, learn.
25:10
SPEAKER_00: I think Cuba is next, which means we're gonna get more choppiness later on.
25:16
SPEAKER_00: So stay sharp, learn, join us at FelixSwens.org slash training on Saturday.
25:23
SPEAKER_00: Uh Saturday.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: Um, if you get that musical reference, which was expertly sung, put it in the comments down below and learn.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: That's what it's all about.
25:33
SPEAKER_00: Every time you get a bit scared, you get a little bit of a motivation to learn and take some action.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: Use that little bit of motivation.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: You got some value out of this.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: Share the video with a golden retriever, and I wish you all the best.