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Episode 271 - 5/5/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 271 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Monday, the beginning of a new week, the beginning of a new
• 0:39
  month. Hope everyone had a great
• 0:41
  weekend. Shout out to who did have the
• 0:43
  Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty.
• 0:46
  I didn't have that winner, but I know a couple people that I work
• 0:49
  with at V Sin, like Sovereignty. Shout out to my guy Patrick
• 0:51
  Maher, who was one of the best, coolest, sharpest guys you'll
• 0:55
  ever meet. I've been boys with Patrick ever
• 0:57
  since I joined V Sin, which by the way, I host this pod, but
• 1:00
  I'm also a sports betting analyst at V Sin, which I'm very
• 1:03
  proud of and I write those daily sharp reports.
• 1:06
  But Patrick, I texted him right before the race, I knew he was
• 1:09
  talking about horse racing all in his SiriusXM show V some live
• 1:13
  tonight and he all he replied was the 18.
• 1:16
  So anyone who made of tailed or played sovereignty great winner
• 1:20
  there in the Derby. But overall, guys, we're going
• 1:23
  to start of the week off hopefully with some winners
• 1:25
  here. I do have a four pack of sweats
• 1:27
  that I'm excited to share with you.
• 1:29
  My Celtics get back underway. Even though I don't have a play
• 1:31
  on the game. I do have a play on the other
• 1:34
  NBA postseason game one tonight, Nuggets in the Thunder, and it
• 1:37
  may surprise you which direction I'm going to go with this OKC
• 1:40
  Nuggets game. So one play in the NBA playoffs
• 1:43
  and then right back to Major League Baseball. 3 bets overall,
• 1:47
  1 short favorite, 1 medium favorite, one bigger favorite.
• 1:50
  So of course, the importance of again shopping for the best
• 1:53
  line, getting the best number. But as always, regardless of the
• 1:56
  sport, the bet type, spread total money line doesn't matter.
• 2:00
  Spread sport, money line sport. We are going to, as always, bet
• 2:04
  to risk, not bet to win. So one of these one of these
• 2:06
  numbers is pretty big and it might surprise you a little bit,
• 2:09
  but then also I'm going to give you a stat when it comes to
• 2:12
  larger favorites in Major League Baseball that may kind of
• 2:15
  astound you. They've done pretty well.
• 2:17
  Hint. So anyway, guys 4 pack overall.
• 2:19
  So we can at least get two of them.
• 2:21
  If we can get three, that will be even better.
• 2:23
  So I want to dive right in to start into the NBA playoffs.
• 2:27
  Of course, we have the second round of the NBA postseason
• 2:30
  getting underway. Did have a game yesterday.
• 2:33
  Who was that? It was with the the Pacers
• 2:35
  having an outright win there against the the Cleveland Cavs.
• 2:38
  They're getting like 8 1/2. They went out right.
• 2:40
  And I don't know if anyone played the Warriors Rockets Game
• 2:43
  7 under one of our favorite systems that came through.
• 2:46
  But I hope in the NHL, even though I've had kind of an eye
• 2:48
  on the NHL, man hope no one had the the Saint Louis Blues up
• 2:52
  three to 1-2 minutes left. They blow it and lose in
• 2:54
  overtime. That is just absolutely brutal.
• 2:57
  But anyway, 4 pack overall, 4 MLB, one NBA.
• 3:00
  Let's start with the NBA post season.
• 3:02
  So I want to focus on the 930 game tonight Denver Nuggets in
• 3:06
  the Oklahoma City Thunder. So setting the stage here a
• 3:09
  little bit, obviously of the Thunder, who have not played in
• 3:12
  quite a while because they just mopped the floor with the
• 3:14
  Grizzlies, won all four games, swept them versus the Nuggets.
• 3:18
  Obviously, you had to go right down to the wire Game 7 and were
• 3:20
  able to beat the Clippers. So let's talk about what we've
• 3:23
  seen across the market and then I'm going to give you my play
• 3:25
  for this one. So in terms of the line
• 3:27
  movement, and we open this game basically a 8 1/2 or 9 point
• 3:32
  favorite in favor of Oklahoma City.
• 3:34
  And one thing that I noticed right off the bat is that at
• 3:37
  DraftKings, the public doesn't know what to do with this game.
• 3:40
  They know Oklahoma City Thunder are the better team, but the
• 3:42
  Nuggets also won the title a couple years ago in nine points,
• 3:46
  9 1/2 points. That's kind of a big number.
• 3:48
  So public doesn't know what to do.
• 3:50
  However, what do we always talk about?
• 3:52
  We talk about on this pod quite a bit comparing the bet splits
• 3:55
  to what the line is doing. And ideally you're going to see
• 3:58
  moves that make a ton of sense or make no sense, or you're
• 4:02
  going to see basically splits down the middle in which there
• 4:04
  is a line move. And that's what we're seeing
• 4:06
  here. Even though at DraftKings right
• 4:08
  now, only 48% of spread bets, so basically half are on Oklahoma
• 4:12
  City Thunder. The Thunder are getting 80% of
• 4:15
  of spread dollars, so only half the tickets, but more than three
• 4:19
  out of $4.00 on Oklahoma City. That tells me that we got a 5050
• 4:23
  line move. In a vacuum, a line really
• 4:24
  shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even.
• 4:26
  But we all also know that not all tickets are created equally.
• 4:29
  You could have tickets. You could have 10 tickets on a
• 4:32
  game. Five of them are from average
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  Joe drunk guys at the bar for 5 bucks each.
• 4:36
  The other five could be from, you know, sharp wise guy better.
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  Is putting a dime a nickel on these games 500,000 bucks or
• 4:42
  more? So even though the tickets are
• 4:44
  even, you got more money on Oakley C, OK C.
• 4:46
  But here's the really important factor.
• 4:48
  The line is moving toward OK C OK C open this game again -8 1/2
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  - 9. They quickly got bet up to -9
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  1/2 and now I'm seeing some shops even get up to -10 So 5050
• 5:00
  line should move it all. Yet more money and line movement
• 5:03
  is going toward the Thunder. So I'm thinking let's go Thunder
• 5:06
  here. Now couple other angles to to
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  take into account in the spot. Oklahoma City, when they are a
• 5:12
  favorite of 9 1/2 or more, they are 26 and 16 ATS this year,
• 5:16
  regular and postseason, 62 percent, 7% ROI.
• 5:20
  But if they are a home favorite of 9 1/2 or more of this year,
• 5:23
  they're 18 and eight against the spread, 69 percent, 31% ROI.
• 5:28
  Couple games against the Grizzlies, they were favored by
• 5:30
  13. They won 131 to 80, then they're
• 5:34
  favored by 14. Half.
• 5:35
  They won 1118 to 99. So in the same spot throughout
• 5:39
  the year and most recently in their latest series, they've
• 5:41
  covered these big numbers. Now the other big angle that I'm
• 5:45
  going to bank on, so I don't know if you can tell in the
• 5:47
  sound of my voice, but I'm on Thunder -9 1/2.
• 5:49
  Now it's very important you shop for the best line because you
• 5:52
  can still get Thunder -9 1/2 looks like it, DraftKings, ESPN
• 5:56
  Bet and Bet MGM, but a lot of the other books are at 10.
• 5:59
  So really important here that if you're playing the Thunder with
• 6:01
  me, you get the 9 1/2. That way they if they win by 10,
• 6:04
  we cover the bet. If we lay A10 and they win by
• 6:06
  10, we push a bet. Obviously we want to win versus
• 6:09
  push, but the other angle aside from the, you know, 5050 bet
• 6:12
  split more money line, move toward OK C OK C has covered a
• 6:16
  lot of these numbers here. When they're laying near double
• 6:18
  digits is a huge rest first tired advantage for the Thunder.
• 6:21
  I mean, I don't think you can ignore this.
• 6:23
  Oklahoma City Thunder have not played since April 26th.
• 6:27
  Remember they swept Memphis. Denver just played a grueling 7
• 6:30
  game series against the Clippers.
• 6:32
  They last played on May 3rd. So the Thunder have literally
• 6:35
  enjoy A7 day rest advantage, a full week rest advantage.
• 6:39
  Now you can kind of talk about the endless debate of rest
• 6:43
  versus rust. Would you rather be, you know,
• 6:45
  rested, but you might be rusty. I think when it comes to the
• 6:48
  post season time off is definitely a benefit And also
• 6:51
  tired legs. With Denver, you had to go back
• 6:52
  and forth, play seven games. OK C again has been off for more
• 6:56
  than a week. So that's a big advantage for OK
• 6:58
  C. Then if you look at the kind of
• 7:00
  just the basic stats here, both teams are really good
• 7:02
  offensively. Offensive efficiency, OK C is
• 7:04
  number 2, Denver's number 3. But defensive efficiency, we
• 7:09
  have the OK C Thunder number one in the NBA, Denver's number 22.
• 7:13
  So I think that's the advantage. Both good offensively but much
• 7:16
  better defense for Denver. Now I noticed on Juice Reel
• 7:20
  there is a 15% sharp mush edge in favor of OK C So 15% more of
• 7:25
  the sharper winning players are going OK C as opposed to the
• 7:28
  more losing betters. And then I have three models on
• 7:30
  this game from Rhythm. One has the Thunder -8.6,
• 7:35
  another one has a -, 9.7. Another one has a -, 11.
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  So the first two, you know, really aren't going to cover
• 7:42
  that number, but that -11 you know, at least if you kind of
• 7:45
  average these out. The other thing about the -11
• 7:48
  system match is that is it is a green recommended star play.
• 7:51
  So the other two are kind of caution flags or leans.
• 7:54
  That's a recommended play with a final predicted score of 119 to
• 7:58
  one O 8. So you add it all up here, guys.
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  We have a 5050 bet split. There's no contrarian value at
• 8:05
  DraftKings Big Obviously public book takes into account a ton of
• 8:08
  recreational money, but we got more money on OK C.
• 8:11
  The line is moving toward OK C. They've covered a lot of these
• 8:14
  big numbers regular season and post season.
• 8:17
  We got a juice reel sharp mush edge.
• 8:19
  We got rhythm with a green star model, and we have, again, a big
• 8:23
  rest advantage. So I'm going to lay it this
• 8:25
  number. It's a big number, but I'm
• 8:26
  hoping OK C blows them out against a tired Nuggets team
• 8:29
  that, again, just won seven games the other day.
• 8:31
  So I'm on OK C Make sure you shop around and get that 9 1/2.
• 8:35
  I'm on Oklahoma City -9 1/2. And I did get that -110 juice.
• 8:40
  Now let's go over to some Major League Baseball.
• 8:42
  Got a four pack of plays for you overall, 3 in MLB.
• 8:45
  Let's talk about the first one here.
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  So we got the Dodgers visiting the Miami Marlins, 6:40 PM
• 8:51
  Eastern Time, first pitch. So let's set the stage.
• 8:53
  Talk some line movement. I'll give you my play now.
• 8:56
  The Dodgers come in 23 and 11 on the year.
• 8:59
  They did just take two or three against the Braves.
• 9:01
  Couldn't get the sweep though. They lost yesterday's series
• 9:04
  finale 4 to 3 as a -, 140 Rd. favorite.
• 9:07
  Another hand. The Marlins 13 and 20, they've
• 9:09
  struggled. They just dropped two or three
• 9:10
  against the A's. They lost 3 to 2 yesterday as a
• 9:13
  -. 110 home pick and play. So pitch a matchup for this one.
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  We got the Rady Ben Casparius pitching for the Dodgers.
• 9:20
  He is 3 and O with a 2.91 ERA. Meanwhile, the Marlins are going
• 9:24
  to go with fellow ready Sandy Alcantara.
• 9:27
  More on him in a bit two and three 8.31 ERA this year.
• 9:31
  Now where did this line open? A lot of shops open.
• 9:34
  The Dodgers as low as a -. 165 Rd. favorite Miami around a +
• 9:37
  140 home dog. And this is one of the biggest
• 9:40
  theme moves of the day. Just all Dodgers money makes
• 9:43
  sense. Good team Miami not so good.
• 9:45
  So it's nothing like surprising, but you did see the Dodgers get
• 9:48
  steamed up -165 now all the way to -200 some shops even as high
• 9:53
  as -210 and I even saw one book juicing them up -220 so a
• 9:57
  massive steam move in favor of the Dodgers.
• 9:59
  Now that's what's look pretty good on the Dodgers at
• 10:02
  DraftKings. Over 90% of money line bets in
• 10:05
  dollars are on the Dodgers. But in particular out at Circa
• 10:08
  in Vegas, where you can see a preponderance of smart money and
• 10:11
  bigger, sharper wagers come in, The Dodgers are getting 75% of
• 10:14
  money line bets, but 98% of money line dollars.
• 10:17
  So both books are showing heavy one way support in favor of the
• 10:21
  Dodgers. Now system matches.
• 10:23
  Quite a few are lining up or lighting up I should say.
• 10:25
  On the Dodgers, I got eight overall, first one favorites off
• 10:28
  a loss. Classic bounce back system, 131
• 10:31
  and 81 this year, 62 percent, 4% ROI favorites with line movement
• 10:36
  in their direction who made the playoffs the previous year.
• 10:39
  So the market's moving in your favor.
• 10:40
  You're expected to win, You're the favorite.
• 10:42
  You made the postseason. You're probably a pretty good
• 10:44
  team. Those teams are 121 and 5967%
• 10:48
  with an 8% ROI this year. Another one here is both teams
• 10:52
  coming off a loss. Take the favorite 26 and 1170
• 10:55
  percent, 14% ROI. Now, you might be asking
• 10:59
  yourself, Josh, you're really laying a -, 200 with the
• 11:01
  Dodgers. Well, technically, I got -198
• 11:03
  not not that that really matters, but yes, I am.
• 11:06
  And this may surprise you. If you look at big favorites
• 11:09
  -200 or more in Major League Baseball this year, they are 60
• 11:13
  and 1778 percent, 10% ROI, $100 better.
• 11:18
  Taking every favorite -200 or more would be up nearly $800
• 11:22
  this year. So generally speaking, laying
• 11:24
  -200 -, 250, these are big prices.
• 11:27
  You're going to have to win at a very high rate in order to
• 11:29
  overcome the juice. But this goes to show you that
• 11:32
  these big favorites actually have been winning at a extremely
• 11:34
  high rate nearly 80% of the time.
• 11:36
  And you're actually making money playing these favorites.
• 11:39
  So little consolation if you're laying a big number here.
• 11:42
  Now I'm going to bake on the Dodgers bats, hopefully getting
• 11:46
  into Alcantara. They're hitting on the year, 54
• 11:48
  homers, 182 runs scored. Marlins only have hit 30 homers
• 11:53
  and scored 147 runs. Dodgers are three and O against
• 11:56
  the Marlins this year. And back to Alcantara.
• 11:59
  Remember, he won the Cy Young a couple years ago.
• 12:00
  He's been a good pitcher, really great pitcher in his career.
• 12:03
  But he's coming off Tommy John and he has not been good again.
• 12:06
  His ERA is over 8 and he actually just faced LA about a
• 12:10
  week ago and LA won 15 to 2 and the Dodgers got to Alcantara in
• 12:15
  2.2 innings. He allowed seven runs.
• 12:17
  So hopefully you have some good familiarity and some some mojo
• 12:21
  continuing here toward the Dodgers.
• 12:23
  So Long story short, it is a big number I got -198 you should
• 12:27
  still be able to get -200 at BET MGM.
• 12:29
  Again, some shops here as high as -210 -, 220.
• 12:32
  But let's go, Dodgers next one for you.
• 12:36
  San Francisco G men and the Cubbies set the stage.
• 12:39
  This is a Wrigley Field night game. 7:40 PM Eastern Time.
• 12:43
  We have the Giants coming in 22 and 13.
• 12:46
  Just swept the Rockies. They won yesterday's series
• 12:48
  finale 9:00 to 3:00 as a -, 400 home favorite.
• 12:51
  I didn't double check that, but yes, that is true -400 that's
• 12:54
  got to be the biggest number so far this year.
• 12:57
  Cubs, meanwhile, 21 and 14. They took 2, two of three
• 13:00
  against the Brewers. Lost the series finale
• 13:02
  yesterday, though, for nothing as a -, 115 Rd. favorite.
• 13:06
  So pitch match up here. We've got the righty Landon Roop
• 13:09
  going for the G men. He's two and two with a 5.1 O
• 13:12
  ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs are going to
• 13:14
  go with the lefty Matthew Boyd. He's two and two with a 2.7 O
• 13:17
  ERA. Now this game open Cubs around a
• 13:20
  -, 145 home favorite San Fran around a + 130 Rd. dog and the
• 13:25
  smart money. The steam is going with the
• 13:27
  Cubbies. Give me the Cubs here guys.
• 13:28
  Cubs have gotten steamed up -145 now all the way up to -170 some
• 13:33
  shops even as high as -175 now I got the Cubs -162 they are still
• 13:40
  -164 at FanDuel. I believe that's the best number
• 13:43
  if you want to play the Cubs with me tonight.
• 13:45
  But the bet splits look pretty good on the Cubs.
• 13:48
  They are getting 79% of money line bets, 85% of money line
• 13:52
  dollars at DraftKings at circa 60% bets, 81% dollars.
• 13:58
  And we also have quite a few systems lighting up on the Cubs.
• 14:00
  Actually, of 12 systems on the Cubs home favorites off a loss
• 14:05
  82 and 4764 percent, 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning
• 14:10
  record 118 and 5867% with an 8% ROI.
• 14:15
  Monday home favorites of the line move in their directions
• 14:17
  starting off the week with some steam. 18 and 578 percent, 25%
• 14:22
  ROI when both teams are above 500.
• 14:25
  A lot of people think, hey, 2 good teams take the dog you got
• 14:28
  plus money. No, it's actually the opposite.
• 14:30
  When 2 good teams, both above 500 face off, take the favorite.
• 14:34
  They're 44 and 2663 percent, 7% ROI this year.
• 14:39
  Now the Cubs also have some correlative betting value,
• 14:41
  favorite, low total. So total, this one is 7 1/2.
• 14:43
  It's actually getting bet down to 8 or sorry, getting bet down
• 14:46
  to seven. And I believe, yeah, the wind's
• 14:48
  blowing in because you see that low total, but correlative
• 14:53
  betting, fair amount of expected runs scored, more likely to come
• 14:55
  from quote, UN quote, the better team who's expected to win the
• 14:58
  game. Now going to bank on Boyd
• 15:00
  pitching well and hopefully the bats getting to Roop.
• 15:02
  But we do have the Cubs hitting 262 this year, 52 homers, 208
• 15:08
  runs scored. G men are only hitting 231 on
• 15:10
  the year, 37 homers, 160, four runs scored.
• 15:14
  If you dig a little deeper into the offense of the Cubs, they're
• 15:17
  hitting 255 against righties this year.
• 15:19
  That's 8th best in baseball. G men are only hitting 220
• 15:22
  against lefties. Remember, they're facing Boyd
• 15:24
  the lefty. That's 22nd baseball.
• 15:27
  Also, Matthew Boyd, he's giving up two earned runs or less in
• 15:31
  four of his six starts. He's 2 and O with a 2.25 ERA at
• 15:35
  home. And a little cherry on top, we
• 15:37
  have an 11% sharp mush edge on the Cubs at Juice Reel.
• 15:41
  And I did notice Robo Jackson, the hardest working AI bought,
• 15:45
  who puts out two best bets every day at noon on the Juice Reel
• 15:48
  app. One of the two best bets today
• 15:50
  is on the Cubs. So Long story short, we got some
• 15:53
  big steam. We got good bet splits, bunch of
• 15:56
  system matches here. I'm going Cubbies now.
• 15:58
  I got the Cubs -162 again, Fanduel's your best price -164
• 16:03
  but make sure you shop around because other books are around
• 16:05
  -170 or -175 last bed of the night.
• 16:09
  It's a gross one, but it is very, very sharp.
• 16:12
  I almost cut my finger when I put this one in on the app.
• 16:15
  I'm talking the Mets visiting the Arizona Snakes, 9:40 PM
• 16:20
  Eastern Time, first pitch. So the Mets come in 22 and 13.
• 16:24
  They've been great. But they did just drop two or
• 16:25
  three against the Cardinals. They got swept in yesterday's
• 16:28
  series finale doubleheader. They lost six to five as a -,
• 16:31
  122 road favorite and they lost 5 to 4 as a -, 160 Rd. favorite.
• 16:36
  Meanwhile, the D backs 18 and 16.
• 16:38
  They also just lost two or three against the Phillies, but they
• 16:41
  did avoid the sweep. They won 11 and 9 in extra
• 16:43
  innings yesterday as a + 130 Rd. dog.
• 16:46
  So pitch a match up here tonight.
• 16:48
  We got the Mets sending out the righty Griffin Canning, he's
• 16:51
  four and one with a 2.61 ERA. Meanwhile, the snakes are going
• 16:54
  to go with the righty Ryan Nelson, he's one and O with a
• 16:57
  5.82 ERA. So what do we see across the
• 17:00
  market? Well, this one is very
• 17:02
  interesting because this game opened around to pick them or
• 17:05
  basically the Mets, a very short -115 Rd. favorite, Arizona
• 17:10
  around a -, 1 O 5 home dog. And the public, they can't
• 17:13
  believe this line is so short. They like the Mets.
• 17:15
  Big name team, a lot of star players, good record.
• 17:19
  Nearly 2/3 of bets at DraftKings are going with the Mets.
• 17:23
  But the line hasn't gone up further toward the Mets.
• 17:25
  It's actually completely flipped toward Arizona, even though
• 17:29
  Arizona is only getting a third of bets.
• 17:31
  They've gone from a short dog to now around a -, 115 or even -120
• 17:36
  home favorite. So you know what that means.
• 17:39
  We have a reverse line move. We have a massive dog to fave
• 17:43
  line move. We have a fade.
• 17:44
  The trendy dog play. This tells me we got a lot of
• 17:47
  big money pouring in on Arizona. So that's where I'm going, guys.
• 17:49
  I got Arizona -115 should be still available around there at
• 17:54
  ESPN bed and FanDuel with some other books are at -120 but
• 17:58
  sticking to the kind of cap for this one, aside from the dog to
• 18:02
  fave line move, which you had me a dog to fave line move, but D
• 18:05
  backs only 1/3 of bets, but about half the money at
• 18:08
  DraftKings. So a nice low bets, higher
• 18:10
  dollar split. And then if you look at all
• 18:12
  these system matches, I have 10 system matches lighting up on
• 18:14
  Arizona. We have home favorites off a win
• 18:17
  with a winning record 86 and 3770 percent, 12% ROI.
• 18:22
  Non division home favorites off a win with steam $0.05 or more,
• 18:26
  61 and 2869 percent, 10% ROI. Monday home favorites with a
• 18:32
  line move in their direction, 18 and 578 percent, 25% ROI.
• 18:37
  Both teams, about 500 take the favorite.
• 18:39
  Remember, we just talked about that one with the Cubs with that
• 18:42
  63 percent, 7% ROI. We do have Arizona with that non
• 18:47
  division favorite system match. So lack of familiarity
• 18:49
  benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
• 18:51
  The snakes are two and one against the Mets this year.
• 18:54
  But here's why maybe you're seeing a lot of smart money hit
• 18:57
  Arizona. It's a bit of a schedule
• 18:59
  advantage for Arizona. It's a negative for the Mets
• 19:02
  because the Mets had to play a doubleheader yesterday.
• 19:05
  So they played two games in Saint Louis.
• 19:07
  Now they got to travel to Arizona.
• 19:09
  Now Arizona, they played at Philly.
• 19:11
  Of course they have to travel, but Arizona played one game,
• 19:14
  Mets played two. If you're a position player,
• 19:16
  this is your third game in two days.
• 19:19
  That's kind of a tough spot, a rebound spot.
• 19:21
  So maybe that's partly why you're seeing smart money fade
• 19:24
  the Mets here. But either way, guys, sharp line
• 19:27
  move got great dog to fave action here.
• 19:30
  I'm on Arizona -115 and I would also mention pop open the juice
• 19:34
  real app. There is a 30% sharp mush edge
• 19:38
  on Arizona. So I like I always like having a
• 19:40
  good sharp mush edge tells me that, Hey, a lot of other sharp
• 19:43
  winning betters who have downloaded juice real and synced
• 19:45
  up their books. They're kind of with me.
• 19:47
  I always like having that as a cherry on top.
• 19:49
  So we got OKC laying 9 1/2. Make sure you get the 9 1/2, not
• 19:53
  the 10 Dodgers, Cubs, Arizona. Let's even get some winners here
• 19:57
  on the diamond and on the postseason hardwood.
• 20:01
  So that about does it for episode 271 of the All Systems
• 20:05
  Go Sports Betting podcast. Power by Rhythm, as always.
• 20:08
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 20:11
  start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 20:14
  out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
• 20:17
  the virtual bar and sweat some sharp, data-driven plays with
• 20:20
  me. If you do enjoy this pod and you
• 20:22
  want to help me to grow the pod, could you do something very
• 20:24
  easy, very simple. I swear it's harmless.
• 20:27
  Just give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 20:30
  That would help us to continue to grow the pod and rise up the
• 20:33
  charts. If you want to click the follow
• 20:35
  button that way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day
• 20:37
  you'll get a pop up or a notification on your smartphone.
• 20:40
  If you want to leave a nice note in the review section that's
• 20:43
  great as well. If you want to recommend the pod
• 20:45
  to a friend, hey, I'll take that also next, if you enjoy this
• 20:50
  style of betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian
• 20:53
  betting, you notice we're not betting games based on oh, I
• 20:56
  think this will happen or oh this team is due no, we're
• 20:59
  betting games with our head and not our heart based on what the
• 21:01
  market is telling us now will the market win every single
• 21:04
  game? Of course not, but if you stick
• 21:06
  to this blueprint long term, I'm pretty confident you're going to
• 21:09
  be successful better because you're always playing that long
• 21:12
  game. But if you want to learn more
• 21:13
  about data-driven betting or you have someone in your life who
• 21:16
  could use a few tips to bet whether they're heading out
• 21:18
  their heart or if you just want to make my day, let me know.
• 21:20
  You appreciate the pod. You know what you could do,
• 21:22
  which would be awesome. You could go to Amazon.com and
• 21:26
  type in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 21:29
  That's my baby. The first book I ever wrote.
• 21:31
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 21:32
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 21:35
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 21:37
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 21:40
  a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
• 21:43
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 21:45
  While you're at it, you should also pre-order a copy of the NFL
• 21:49
  Sharp Betting Playbook. That's my new book.
• 21:51
  It comes out August 12th. Super excited about that.
• 21:54
  But if you want to pick up a copy of the Everything Guide to
• 21:56
  Sports Betting or pre-order the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook,
• 21:59
  you're going to bring them to the Sports book.
• 22:01
  Meet me at the Nash in Nashua, NH.
• 22:03
  It's only about 15 minutes from my house.
• 22:05
  And then what? I'm what's going to happen?
• 22:06
  I'm going to sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 22:10
  ale. We'll get some nachos.
• 22:11
  We'll sweat some games together. How does that sound?
• 22:14
  But seriously, those of you who've already bought one or
• 22:16
  both of my books, I really appreciate it.
• 22:18
  It really means a lot to me. Thank you.
• 22:21
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm or Juice Real yet?
• 22:23
  Well, if you haven't, what are you waiting for?
• 22:25
  Our Rhythm does a great job of powering this podcast, providing
• 22:28
  us AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 22:31
  player props. And Juice Reel of course.
• 22:34
  I consider it the Tip Jar. If you enjoy the pod, This pod
• 22:36
  is free. It cost you nothing to listen to
• 22:38
  my voice here and get these insights daily.
• 22:41
  But if you enjoy the pod, you value the insights.
• 22:43
  I would love for you guys. I'm going to hold out the Tip
• 22:45
  jar. Pass the hat to go sign up for
• 22:48
  the $4.99 a week best bet picks that you can find on Juice Reel.
• 22:53
  So I tweeted out everyday from my Twitter.
• 22:55
  You can also find it in the bio description of each podcast, but
• 22:58
  you'll get those plays every single day.
• 23:00
  A lot of them will take place before the podcast.
• 23:02
  So you can hopefully get some good numbers.
• 23:05
  And again, that's $4.99 a week and that would mean a lot to me
• 23:08
  if you guys wanted to sign up, but it's not just the best bets.
• 23:11
  You're going to get the robo Jackson best bet best bet plays.
• 23:14
  You're going to get the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage
• 23:17
  plays, the shop for the best line futures.
• 23:20
  You are also going to be able to sync up your sports books, get a
• 23:24
  running report card of your action, and you're also going to
• 23:27
  get those dollar breakdowns bets in dollars for every single game
• 23:30
  based on everyone who has downloaded juice Rail and synced
• 23:33
  up their sports books. So it's pretty cool.
• 23:35
  So download rhythm, download Juice Rail and then you'll be
• 23:38
  off and running 7 day free trial and you can add another great
• 23:41
  data-driven tool to your betting toolkit.
• 23:45
  Next, do you use a live odds page?
• 23:48
  If you do even know what a live odds page is, I hope you do, but
• 23:50
  if not, that's OK. You got to have a live odds page
• 23:53
  though. It's also called the screen or
• 23:54
  the board. It is a critical piece of
• 23:56
  information if you want to do what we talked about each day.
• 23:59
  Being a data-driven better. data-driven better means you got
• 24:01
  to lean on the data and where do you get the data?
• 24:04
  A lot of it comes from that live odds page.
• 24:05
  It'll show you every single game on the board that day.
• 24:08
  First question you ask yourself is what can I bet on today?
• 24:11
  Then you're going to get obviously all the different
• 24:14
  numbers, all the lines, the odds in real time from all the
• 24:17
  different sports books. You'll have a open column that
• 24:19
  never changes, tells you the opening number.
• 24:22
  Then to the right you got all the different books and their
• 24:23
  current numbers. You can shop for the best line,
• 24:26
  pick off the best prices. You can pull up the line
• 24:28
  history, see all the moves in between and you'll get market
• 24:31
  setting books like Pinnacle and Circa first to the market, 1st
• 24:35
  to move. Then you can see them move,
• 24:37
  light up in in red or orange or yellow.
• 24:40
  Then you can jump on a book that hasn't moved yet, get a good
• 24:42
  number. But in order to do all this, you
• 24:44
  got to give a shot to Odds Logic.
• 24:47
  Odds Logic is the best live odds page around.
• 24:50
  It's also the most, I would say valuable price or the most cost
• 24:55
  efficient. Maybe that's a better way to put
• 24:56
  it. But if you go to the specific
• 24:58
  link Odds logic.com/josh 123, that's Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 25:06
  Make sure you do the slash Josh 123 at the end.
• 25:09
  You'll get a 7 day free trial of odds logic.
• 25:11
  Then you get 50% off the first month.
• 25:13
  So normally it's 99 bucks a month.
• 25:15
  I know it sounds like a lot. A lot of live odds pages are 206
• 25:19
  hundred 800 bucks a month. So give it a shot.
• 25:23
  You got to have a live odds page.
• 25:24
  If you're listening this pod, I assume you're you're serious
• 25:26
  about sports betting. It's not just some joke.
• 25:28
  It's like you want to be you want to be a good better, you
• 25:30
  want to win, you want to be as good as you can be and a live
• 25:33
  odds page is a big part of that. So go download or go sign up for
• 25:37
  seven day free trial of odds logic.
• 25:38
  Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 25:43
  So that about does it for today's pod episode 271.
• 25:47
  As always, I'll leave you with a couple things.
• 25:49
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin
• 25:52
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 25:55
  Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain
• 25:58
  Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield or the Nash in my
• 26:02
  neck of the woods in in Massachusetts or out in the
• 26:05
  desert where the true grinders get down.
• 26:07
  Where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 26:10
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 26:12
  Or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 26:14
  swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 26:16
  Circa, you're going to walk up to me and maybe you're going to
• 26:19
  show me a nice sovereignty ticket, nice little pay out
• 26:21
  there if you're able to, to get sovereignty right.
• 26:24
  But as always guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 26:27
  We'll post about the books. What's some sharp contrarian
• 26:29
  plays together? With that being said, I'll leave
• 26:32
  you with the final thought as always again, this this thing we
• 26:35
  do this betting market betting industry that we like to
• 26:38
  participate in. It's difficult, but it's not
• 26:41
  impossible. So we got to continue to stick
• 26:42
  to the model, stick to the blueprint or they had a great
• 26:45
  weekend, a terrible weekend. Whether you're treading water
• 26:47
  and waiting for a winning day or you feel like you're you're red
• 26:50
  hot and you can't miss a bet. We never want to let the
• 26:52
  previous day kind of dictate our approach to the next day.
• 26:56
  We just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint
• 26:58
  that came with our head and not our heart.
• 27:00
  And you guys might know by now, those of you been with me for
• 27:03
  quite a while, the grinders with blinders crew.
• 27:06
  That model is against the public with the house, with the pros
• 27:10
  flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
• 27:13
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 27:16
  So have a great Monday night everybody looking forward to
• 27:19
  some some hoops and some baseball today.
• 27:22
  Then after that, we'll be right back at it tomorrow with episode
• 27:25
  272 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
• 27:30
  rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 27:31
  great Monday night.