Can You Trust the Polls? Nate Silver’s 2026 Midterm Election Forecast (Audio)

Light Beer Dark Money · Aug 13, 2026 · 1m

Can election forecasts really tell us what will happen in November—or do they simply give political junkies a false sense of certainty?

Chris and Sean break down Tuesday’s primary results, beginning with a massive polling miss in Wisconsin. Democratic socialist Francesca Hong had led Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by double digits—and by roughly 20 points in some of the final polling averages. But when the votes were counted, Crowley won the Democratic nomination for governor by less than half a percentage point, 39.8% to 39.3%.

Then they turn to Connecticut, where former Hartford…