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Conference Championship Best Bets, Parlay of the Day, CBB Futures & More! · Best Betting Show Ever

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome everybody, the best betting show ever. I am Lawrence President.
0:04
Speaker 1: That is the Lady is Friday, NFL on Sunday, We're
0:09
Speaker 1: gonna do a deep dive. We're gonna find out where
0:11
Speaker 1: the money is going. We're also gonna look at every
0:14
Speaker 1: single NHL game on the board. Same with NBA. We
0:17
Speaker 1: got some college basketball coming your way, our parlay of
0:20
Speaker 1: the day, and we're gonna do a deep dive into
0:25
Speaker 1: three NFL beats, one from me, one from Joe, one
0:29
Speaker 1: from Steve Merrill. Art deseaser up now, Steve Merrill coming later. Joe.
0:34
Speaker 1: I don't think i've seen you in white looking good?
0:37
Speaker 1: You sexy devil?
0:39
Speaker 2: No?
0:40
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well yeah that's I could have done without that,
0:43
Speaker 3: but yeah, no, pretty much wear white a lot.
0:46
Speaker 4: Press. I'm glad you noticed.
0:48
Speaker 3: Very Yes, the surroundings that you the things you notice,
0:51
Speaker 3: very impressive, good stuff.
0:53
Speaker 1: But if you wear white a lot, it's almost like
0:56
Speaker 1: the things I don't notice because I only noticed today.
0:59
Speaker 1: What's up? Art to Caesar, I want you can we
1:03
Speaker 1: can we let your hair down one time on this show.
1:07
Speaker 2: Sure when you show up on time.
1:09
Speaker 1: No, there we go love that Mike drop sexy devil. Wow,
1:18
Speaker 1: it is so good, Joe, what are we getting my
1:21
Speaker 1: handlebar picture up and ready? I'm game, dude. I like
1:26
Speaker 1: when people make fun of me.
1:28
Speaker 3: We might go Tom Selleck a little bit later in
1:31
Speaker 3: the show when Merrill gets here.
1:32
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, okay, Art, let's talk NFL. Look, we bought
1:39
Speaker 1: four and a halves mostly across the board in New England.
1:43
Speaker 1: Total hasn't changed in yesterday forty two and a half.
1:46
Speaker 1: We got minus two and a half, with Seattle total
1:49
Speaker 1: coming down a bit in the RAMS game to the
1:51
Speaker 1: under what's going on over at the West Gate?
1:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as far as you know, the information
1:58
Speaker 2: that gave out yesterday, there's really no I mean, we've
2:01
Speaker 2: been four and a half on New England or totals
2:03
Speaker 2: shot up two points from the opener forty and a half.
2:06
Speaker 2: Obviously you mentioned the Seattle total which dropped down, and
2:09
Speaker 2: I believe when we were on air yesterday we had
2:12
Speaker 2: already hit forty six and a half. We opened forty
2:14
Speaker 2: seven and a half. Seattle's been two and a half.
2:16
Speaker 2: I think that's gonna be the booking number. I really
2:19
Speaker 2: don't see it moving to three. I just think when
2:22
Speaker 2: you're getting enough action, you know, I did mention that
2:24
Speaker 2: we have four to one ticket account on Seattle, and
2:27
Speaker 2: some one of the comments had made it comment about that.
2:29
Speaker 2: You gotta remember, it doesn't mean that we can't be
2:32
Speaker 2: close to being balanced on the money. We just might
2:35
Speaker 2: be taking a lot of smaller tickets on Seattle, So
2:38
Speaker 2: you know, ticket account sometimes can be a little deceiving.
2:41
Speaker 2: But I think two and a half is gonna be
2:43
Speaker 2: where we're at, and I think the New England game,
2:46
Speaker 2: unless we get overwhelmed by public money, maybe we have
2:50
Speaker 2: a couple of house players come in and drop some
2:52
Speaker 2: big money on New England money line, or you know,
2:55
Speaker 2: they lay.
2:55
Speaker 1: The four and a half.
2:56
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna be pretty steady there as well.
2:59
Speaker 2: I don't see these number is budgeting that much more so.
3:02
Speaker 4: What you see is what you get. I can tell
3:05
Speaker 4: you art.
3:05
Speaker 3: I don't know what kind of traffic you're getting and
3:09
Speaker 3: handle you're getting so far, but I have seen props
3:12
Speaker 3: in these games move a lot. I mean it's I've
3:16
Speaker 3: seen the passing yard it's props move. I mean Jared
3:20
Speaker 3: Stidham went for I think one ninety and a half.
3:23
Speaker 3: Now he's almost close to two hundred total passing yards
3:28
Speaker 3: in the in the market. So usually when we're stuck
3:31
Speaker 3: at it is what you're going to get, right. How
3:34
Speaker 3: much fluctuation in the prop betting market do you usually see?
3:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean you know that obviously is going
3:41
Speaker 2: to correlate with the total going up in that game.
3:43
Speaker 2: I mean that totally moved two points. So people think
3:45
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some offense in the game. So you
3:48
Speaker 2: would think that some props we've bet over. We always
3:51
Speaker 2: say it though. We get to a certain point with
3:55
Speaker 2: some of these props where we see the sharp guys
3:59
Speaker 2: just coming and blindly take all unders, and we'll probably
4:03
Speaker 2: see that. We have a really good prop guy who
4:05
Speaker 2: bets on Saturdays, and you know, our props have been
4:07
Speaker 2: up for days, but he waits till Saturday to bet,
4:10
Speaker 2: and a lot of times he comes in and he
4:11
Speaker 2: fires four or five props on every game, and then
4:14
Speaker 2: we always try to book to his action and he
4:16
Speaker 2: always takes under, So be interesting to see what he
4:19
Speaker 2: does on those. Public's gonna be very invested in doing
4:23
Speaker 2: the anytime touchdown parlays. That's like their favorite thing in
4:27
Speaker 2: the world to do. They love to bet the first
4:29
Speaker 2: touchdown score. We have squares up like we would for
4:33
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, you know, so we're trying to do that.
4:35
Speaker 2: We're trying to add a lot more for Conference championship. Listen,
4:38
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a big handle weekend.
4:40
Speaker 1: M All right to see is enjoining us live from
4:43
Speaker 1: the West Gate? Is the Westgate doing? Does it do
4:46
Speaker 1: anything special or anything for any of these events? So
4:48
Speaker 1: you're gonna be serving free coffee anything going on?
4:52
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, if you're sitting at a seat and
4:54
Speaker 2: you talk to cocktail wait or some I'm sure they
4:56
Speaker 2: can get you a cup of coffee.
4:57
Speaker 4: Yeah.
4:57
Speaker 1: Obviously, the Super Bowl.
5:00
Speaker 2: Is a whole different deal. You know, you got the theater,
5:02
Speaker 2: and you got all the promotions, and we put out
5:04
Speaker 2: the big Game prop with packet which we do which
5:08
Speaker 2: you know it's basically like a mini contest. So we're
5:11
Speaker 2: able to talk about that a lot more as we
5:13
Speaker 2: approach the Super Bowl. So yeah, I mean, we're gonna
5:15
Speaker 2: have a lot of stuff going on.
5:17
Speaker 3: So we're trying to get the free cocktail when he's art.
5:20
Speaker 3: You know how that is? Man, A couple of pigs
5:22
Speaker 3: in a blanket and nice free decaf coffee.
5:25
Speaker 4: That's what we're talking about here.
5:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, talking about pigs in a blanket. I am in
5:31
Speaker 1: the province of Ontario and it is the coldest place
5:37
Speaker 1: on Earth today, on Earth, it is minus fifty.
5:45
Speaker 5: Think.
5:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so that's that's what's going on over here.
5:51
Speaker 3: Can't be good for your ball rot there, pres right.
5:53
Speaker 3: I mean they just got to be crawling right up.
5:55
Speaker 3: I mean, I can't be good at all.
5:57
Speaker 4: That comes a video. I didn't know what did I say.
6:02
Speaker 4: I didn't do any what video. I was just making
6:04
Speaker 4: a comment.
6:04
Speaker 3: You were complaining about your ball rot, and I'm just
6:06
Speaker 3: saying minus fifty can't be good.
6:09
Speaker 1: Heart, No, no, no, no. It's also not good for
6:14
Speaker 1: an electric car art. There's a bunch of NHL games
6:17
Speaker 1: eight today. We got some NBA and some college basketball
6:22
Speaker 1: full plate to NBA games as well. Eight two. Any
6:26
Speaker 1: bets we need to know about, any moves we need
6:28
Speaker 1: to know about.
6:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, the NHL, we took some Golden Knight money. We
6:32
Speaker 2: took some Ranger money. In the NBA. We took under
6:37
Speaker 2: money in the Kings and Cavs game under two thirty five.
6:40
Speaker 2: They laid four and a half with the Grizzly and
6:43
Speaker 2: then college I'll run through someone. As I was telling Joe,
6:45
Speaker 2: it's always the lower end stuff. They laid fourteen with
6:48
Speaker 2: Austin p they took plus one with Charleston Southern, they
6:52
Speaker 2: laid five and a half with Southern Indiana, and then
6:55
Speaker 2: they took the under in the Austin p game under
6:58
Speaker 2: one forty nine and a half. Took the under one
7:01
Speaker 2: in the Appellation State game. And I told people, because
7:05
Speaker 2: they were in the comments asking about it, some UFC stuff.
7:09
Speaker 2: Three underdogs that Sharps took. They took Song You Dong
7:14
Speaker 2: plus two hundred, he took the Kita kryl Off plus
7:17
Speaker 2: one sixty. They took Alex Perez plus one sixty. And
7:22
Speaker 2: that's from our sharp UFC guy who doesn't really bet
7:25
Speaker 2: a lot of sports other than the UFC, so when
7:28
Speaker 2: UFC comes around, he likes to put some sharp stuff in.
7:31
Speaker 2: We like to book to his actions. So those three
7:33
Speaker 2: of his plays all underdogs.
7:35
Speaker 3: By the way, Art you also mentioned it too. I mean,
7:38
Speaker 3: because of the weather that Prez is affecting around the
7:43
Speaker 3: rest of this country affect you to me, we got
7:47
Speaker 3: a lot of early games coming up here this week.
7:50
Speaker 3: We got a ton of game. When does it start
7:53
Speaker 3: rolling in for you? Do you advise people get ahead
7:56
Speaker 3: of it, wait until the more. What's the best way
7:58
Speaker 3: to approach it?
7:59
Speaker 2: You think, well, I mean, we have two schools of
8:03
Speaker 2: thoughts when it comes to our sharp college basketball guys.
8:05
Speaker 2: There are plenty of guys who bet overnight, but once again,
8:07
Speaker 2: overnight limits ron't as big as they're going to be
8:10
Speaker 2: in the morning. Some guys just like to bet, bet
8:13
Speaker 2: their opinions, bet the moves, bet the way they see
8:15
Speaker 2: the market if they think numbers are off on overnight lines.
8:18
Speaker 2: But then once you know, we get cooking in the morning,
8:21
Speaker 2: you just see the screen light up and blow up
8:24
Speaker 2: for yeah, for hours. So there are definitely two schools
8:27
Speaker 2: to thought on that. You mentioned all these games that
8:29
Speaker 2: are gonna be in the morning. I mean, we're gonna
8:31
Speaker 2: be dealing with, you know, twenty five thirty thirty five
8:33
Speaker 2: half times in some spots, you know.
8:36
Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna be a lot.
8:37
Speaker 2: It's gonna be making very difficult to book those games.
8:39
Speaker 2: But that's the challenge and it makes it a lot
8:41
Speaker 2: of fun.
8:43
Speaker 4: All right.
8:43
Speaker 1: The caezear joining us. We got Steve Merrill still to come.
8:46
Speaker 1: Lots of betting information on your way. Shout out to
8:49
Speaker 1: all of you guys who commented in the comment section
8:52
Speaker 1: after the show yesterday. I read them all so much fun.
8:57
Speaker 1: Hit that like button. Subscribe to our.
9:01
Speaker 3: Ark.
9:01
Speaker 1: We gotta keep moving. You're a busy man. I'll go
9:04
Speaker 1: to you first. We do a four team round robin
9:08
Speaker 1: of the day now, well only on Thursdays and Fridays.
9:12
Speaker 1: Why don't you go first? What's your leg?
9:15
Speaker 3: Yeah?
9:15
Speaker 2: If we're gonna keep it in the NFL, here, I'm
9:19
Speaker 2: gonna do a anytime touchdown. Oo give me DeVante Adams
9:24
Speaker 2: plus one ten to score a touchdown.
9:27
Speaker 4: Nice, there you go.
9:29
Speaker 1: Okay on me. I'm gonna go with under forty two
9:33
Speaker 1: and a half in the New England Denver game.
9:36
Speaker 3: Joe, all right, Prez, I am gonna go with a
9:40
Speaker 3: prop as well. I'm gonna take Kenneth Walker the third under.
9:46
Speaker 4: And it looks like this line keeps cleave, keeps climbing.
9:50
Speaker 3: Rather, what do we got eighty six and a half
9:52
Speaker 3: eighty seven and a half yards rushing against the Rams.
9:56
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna force him to do what other
9:59
Speaker 3: teams would like to do, and that's make Sam Donald
10:02
Speaker 3: beat you. So Kenneth Walker under his rushing yards at
10:07
Speaker 3: whatever number you can get eighty six and a half,
10:09
Speaker 3: eighty seven and a half, whatever it is.
10:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, I love that, Bet. I take it down
10:14
Speaker 1: to eighty four and a half. I think that's a
10:16
Speaker 1: massive number. And I know that there's only one running back,
10:19
Speaker 1: but there really isn't Joe. There are other running backs
10:21
Speaker 1: and he's not going to get one hundred snaps, so
10:23
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the snaps. But Steve Merrill will
10:26
Speaker 1: add his fourth leg shortly. Art the Caesar, thanks for
10:29
Speaker 1: doing this, brother, I hope you have a wonderful weekend.
10:32
Speaker 1: Kick ass Yes, enjoy, enjoy and I agree, by the way,
10:37
Speaker 1: with that Vegas Golden Knight's line move, even though they're
10:39
Speaker 1: against Gratto. Well that's Art the Caesar and now we
10:43
Speaker 1: move to Steve Merril. Steve Merril, welcome to the show.
10:47
Speaker 1: We're right in the middle of our parlay of the
10:50
Speaker 1: Day segment. What is leg number four?
10:56
Speaker 5: So if you look at career stature Jared Stin on
10:59
Speaker 5: the backup quarterback for Denver, they're very similar to Bownecks
11:02
Speaker 5: qb Radi almost identically actually averages a yard for pass more.
11:05
Speaker 5: I'm gonna look at him to have a decent passing game.
11:07
Speaker 5: Here over two hundred passing yards. Bo Nix has thrown
11:09
Speaker 5: for over two hundred and six of his last eight games.
11:12
Speaker 5: Roncos were throwing the ball a little bit more, and
11:14
Speaker 5: if Denver's behind as a home underdog, they get up
11:16
Speaker 5: and over as well, stin them over two hundred yards
11:18
Speaker 5: passing for the game.
11:19
Speaker 1: Yes, there we go, Joe, that's our four team parlay
11:26
Speaker 1: all NFL. Steve, how did you do last night?
11:29
Speaker 4: Life?
11:29
Speaker 1: Good?
11:31
Speaker 5: Life is good man. I went to the one Mary game,
11:33
Speaker 5: saw them lead by twenty, never trail and win, and
11:36
Speaker 5: yet it was at four point game late, so it
11:38
Speaker 5: felt like a narrow victory. And then they play Hofster tomorrow.
11:42
Speaker 5: We missed. I missed that as my parlay picking. I
11:43
Speaker 5: told you Hofster was off back to back losses. Shocked.
11:46
Speaker 5: They lost outright against A and T yesterday North Carolina
11:49
Speaker 5: A and T. Joe, I don't know if that's a
11:51
Speaker 5: good or bad thing for Willy and Mary tomorrow because
11:53
Speaker 5: now they're coming off three straight losses, but obviously they're beatable,
11:56
Speaker 5: so very interesting game. They moved it to noon eastern tomorrow.
12:00
Speaker 5: An alert for the viewers out there. A lot of
12:01
Speaker 5: games tomorrow got moved up early because of the East
12:03
Speaker 5: coast snow that's coming. So that could also cause a
12:06
Speaker 5: little bit of have big hopsters worried about getting back
12:08
Speaker 5: to New York. Hopefully that's an advantage.
12:09
Speaker 4: Yep.
12:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was on the Tribe yesterday, Steve Adam on
12:13
Speaker 1: the money Line, and yeah, it got a little hairy,
12:15
Speaker 1: to say the least.
12:17
Speaker 4: Never in doubt, done.
12:18
Speaker 5: Merrill was there, never in doubt, never in doubt. And
12:22
Speaker 5: I'll tell you what, Press. They haven't lost at home
12:24
Speaker 5: all year. They barely lost last year. You know, it's
12:26
Speaker 5: funny there was only like a couple of thousand there.
12:28
Speaker 5: The students are just coming back. It's still a good atmosphere.
12:31
Speaker 5: But William Mary lost three in a row last week,
12:34
Speaker 5: three road games in six days. It's not about the atmosphere.
12:37
Speaker 5: It's not about the weird sight lines. It's just something
12:39
Speaker 5: about the familiarity in the travel. I think in these
12:42
Speaker 5: mid major conferences and here again. You know, they moved
12:45
Speaker 5: the game up to Marcus Hofstter's got to get back
12:47
Speaker 5: out of here to Long Island before the snow hits.
12:49
Speaker 5: So it'll be interesting to see if that's any kind
12:50
Speaker 5: of dynamic there.
12:52
Speaker 1: We go. Okay, guys, we got a lot of show
12:54
Speaker 1: left tip to like button subscribed to our channel. We've
12:58
Speaker 1: got three NFL back one each, our NBA Rundown, our
13:02
Speaker 1: NHL Rundown. Steve Merrill's got a few big college basketball
13:07
Speaker 1: bets coming your way. We're going to in the show
13:09
Speaker 1: with the mailbox. Let's get into our and let's get
13:12
Speaker 1: into what is it? Joe, it's uh.
13:15
Speaker 3: You want me to Okay, I didn't realize where we're
13:18
Speaker 3: going to go that wrap, But as long as you're
13:19
Speaker 3: you're gonna do it, I'll bring it up.
13:21
Speaker 4: Because Merrill looks forward to this. There it is, there
13:24
Speaker 4: it is.
13:26
Speaker 1: I look so good, I look so at all.
13:31
Speaker 5: If that's business in the front, I can't imagine what
13:34
Speaker 5: one of the back looks like.
13:35
Speaker 1: Oh that's funny, Joe, I got another. I got another
13:40
Speaker 1: picture of the year before wearing something like that. I
13:42
Speaker 1: gotta get you all of these pictures.
13:44
Speaker 3: You have a lot, you know, you do it just
13:48
Speaker 3: like the one providing you with them.
13:49
Speaker 5: That's just I love it.
13:51
Speaker 3: Not afraid I'm not finding these, I'm not searching, I'm
13:55
Speaker 3: not taking for them. They Joe under the covers, They
14:00
Speaker 3: somehow land in my mailbox.
14:02
Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm going to go through my
14:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go through my uh catalog, I have one
14:08
Speaker 1: of me with a bold camp. I should get you that.
14:15
Speaker 4: Again.
14:18
Speaker 5: Imagine the catalog.
14:19
Speaker 3: No, I cannot not even remotely close the catalog.
14:25
Speaker 1: It's up in the cloud. Joe, I should just give
14:27
Speaker 1: you access.
14:28
Speaker 5: Just give me the catalog anyway.
14:33
Speaker 1: I got a huge play an NFL. Wee, so does Joe.
14:38
Speaker 1: Joe got five percent play up in the NFL. It's
14:40
Speaker 1: been presidentially approved. His five percent play is different to
14:45
Speaker 1: my big four percent play different games. Uh, so grab
14:49
Speaker 1: them both. I'm going for eight in a row in
14:53
Speaker 1: my four percent play. Joe's going for eight in a
14:56
Speaker 1: row in his five percent play. Yeah. I'm on a
14:59
Speaker 1: seven and oh run in four percent bets sixty three
15:02
Speaker 1: percent since January first of last year. And this is
15:06
Speaker 1: an ATS bet. And I got to tell you, guys,
15:09
Speaker 1: sixteen and six on the year in NFL ATS bets.
15:12
Speaker 1: It basically does not get much better than that. So
15:16
Speaker 1: I have that up. I also have two prop bets
15:19
Speaker 1: and a total I got a big NFL card, take
15:21
Speaker 1: advantage of that, and I'm rolling in college hoops right now.
15:25
Speaker 1: When boat last night went on a six and one run.
15:28
Speaker 1: I got a college basketball bet up tonight. Two NHL
15:31
Speaker 1: plays in one NBA play. That's me, Joe Rinaria. I've
15:35
Speaker 1: already talked about your five percent. What do you got going?
15:38
Speaker 3: And then we'll go to Steve two NBA two college
15:42
Speaker 3: games as well. Over at the page at wager talk
15:45
Speaker 3: dot com. Merril, how is your business?
15:49
Speaker 5: This is in the front end business back?
15:52
Speaker 1: Did you do your NPC oil today?
15:56
Speaker 5: NBA one again? A one again, guys, it's been ten days.
15:59
Speaker 5: I just looked, there's been ten days since I've missed
16:01
Speaker 5: an NBA best bet over a week and a half
16:04
Speaker 5: and not a shock on monster run almost a sixty
16:07
Speaker 5: five for actually over now sick. It was sixty five
16:09
Speaker 5: percent the past two months. We went again last night
16:11
Speaker 5: with the Spurs. I didn't even realize how good it's been.
16:13
Speaker 5: Johnny Detroit, by the way, yesterday threw up an NBA
16:16
Speaker 5: special for me on my page. Number one all time
16:20
Speaker 5: NBA sides over like decades. It's number one going back
16:22
Speaker 5: to twenty twenty one. He pulled the stats up for
16:24
Speaker 5: the last four years or so since I joined wager Talk,
16:27
Speaker 5: and it's a discounted price for the rest of the season.
16:29
Speaker 5: That's on my page right now. Two more NBA Best
16:31
Speaker 5: bets going tonight, plus a college basketball best bet and
16:34
Speaker 5: a bonus college basketball play which I'm not giving out
16:37
Speaker 5: here on the show. So go to my page now,
16:38
Speaker 5: get the free play and get three more best bets.
16:41
Speaker 5: Winning continues Steve Merrillwager Talk dot Com, WT dot Buzz slash.
16:45
Speaker 1: Sm Yeah, and I want to add to that real
16:48
Speaker 1: quick about Steve's NBA You know, I told how many
16:53
Speaker 1: times are you going to put that? You already used
16:56
Speaker 1: that with art, got up with news, we got up
17:00
Speaker 1: with new stuff, we got dig.
17:03
Speaker 3: I got a look at that phrase. It looks like
17:08
Speaker 3: he was trying to push his catalogue. That's what it
17:10
Speaker 3: looks like there, August.
17:12
Speaker 1: Coming out kind of push the catalog out of my talks.
17:16
Speaker 5: What is that a bunny with golf clubs or swords?
17:18
Speaker 4: And what is that like?
17:21
Speaker 1: Bunny? It's a very large fashion brand. You are not
17:25
Speaker 1: a fashion stuff, So.
17:27
Speaker 5: That I like that. I appreciate it, don't know, Yeah, okay,
17:30
Speaker 5: I got.
17:32
Speaker 4: What do you got?
17:33
Speaker 3: Oh?
17:33
Speaker 4: Nice? That's that's not a vori like the present is
17:37
Speaker 4: wearing here though.
17:38
Speaker 5: Ill this is one of the most comfortable hoodies I've
17:40
Speaker 5: had though.
17:42
Speaker 1: True Classic, True Classic, and I got your epans going. Guys,
17:46
Speaker 1: in all seriousness, I've told you all I revamped my
17:49
Speaker 1: NBA team about four years ago. Since then, I've not
17:52
Speaker 1: had an NBA losing I have not had a losing
17:55
Speaker 1: season in n B A. I'm up one hundred units
17:57
Speaker 1: a profit over that time. And the reason I mentioned
18:00
Speaker 1: that is Steve Merrill beats me. Every bloodier like me. Meryll,
18:07
Speaker 1: Marco and Teddy are just constantly dueling or NBA pro
18:13
Speaker 1: over wager talk. So yeah, if Steve is rolling an
18:17
Speaker 1: NBA right now, take advantage of that special because man, Steve,
18:22
Speaker 1: your NBA has been exceptional for yours.
18:27
Speaker 5: And what's funny, pres is my favorite part of any sport.
18:29
Speaker 5: Any season has yet to begin. That's the NBA Playoffs.
18:32
Speaker 5: I've always said my desert island strategy, if I could
18:34
Speaker 5: only handicap one game on a desert island, would be
18:36
Speaker 5: the NBA Playoffs because it's just consistent year after year,
18:39
Speaker 5: the seven game series. The same situations have worked for decades.
18:43
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's going to get better. The season will continue,
18:46
Speaker 5: and it's been a great start so far.
18:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was stuck on a desert island and was
18:51
Speaker 1: only able to handicap one thing. It would be porn.
18:54
Speaker 1: I would handicap porn.
18:57
Speaker 5: You have a good porn catalog, A big catalog there too.
19:01
Speaker 1: Yes, my catalog is incredible. I mean maybe like the
19:04
Speaker 1: Miss Universe contest. I don't think I'm gonna pick a
19:08
Speaker 1: bunch of dudes in shorts. Whatever could go up my ass.
19:14
Speaker 1: I'll take what I can get.
19:16
Speaker 5: So good, So glad I wasn't on the screen for
19:19
Speaker 5: that conference roll.
19:20
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, why, Steve, I honestly believe that that
19:29
Speaker 1: video was clipped together. I don't think I.
19:32
Speaker 5: Say it stacks with AI, now you know that's what
19:34
Speaker 5: that is. The downside to AI is like all you
19:37
Speaker 5: got to do now present be like I didn't say that,
19:39
Speaker 5: you know, and people don't know that's the downside. Well,
19:42
Speaker 5: we were growing up thirty years ago. You couldn't have
19:44
Speaker 5: gotten away from having said that. It would have been
19:46
Speaker 5: like vh VHS bars and the clip if we had
19:48
Speaker 5: spliced it in the videos and everything. But now here's
19:52
Speaker 5: a problem.
19:53
Speaker 4: Crazy, I know it's real.
19:54
Speaker 5: So we're going to.
19:57
Speaker 1: And I'll preview Steve one game each go.
20:04
Speaker 5: Let's look at the first game Denver Broncos, New England Patriots.
20:06
Speaker 5: You know the look ahead line a week ago, the
20:08
Speaker 5: betable line before the semi, before the divisional round was
20:11
Speaker 5: going to be Denver by one to two points, and
20:13
Speaker 5: I still think they would have been a slight favorite
20:15
Speaker 5: this week with Knicks bow Knicks at quarterback. But Nix
20:19
Speaker 5: is of course out, so now it's almost a touchdown adjustment.
20:22
Speaker 5: It was five and a half, almost six, down to five.
20:24
Speaker 5: Now we're seeing four and a half. The It's been
20:26
Speaker 5: a little bit of buyback on Denver, and I agree
20:28
Speaker 5: with that buyback. I think this is an overreaction. It's
20:30
Speaker 5: not what bow Knicks is worth, it's what the difference
20:34
Speaker 5: is between him and the backup. And if you look
20:36
Speaker 5: at the career numbers to Jared Stindham, he's actually averaged
20:39
Speaker 5: a yard for pass more seven and a half yards
20:40
Speaker 5: per pass versus six and a half for Knicks. I know,
20:42
Speaker 5: different players, slightly different teams with the Raiders and Broncos
20:45
Speaker 5: for those, but his QB rating is like an eighty
20:48
Speaker 5: eight and a half. Knis is like a ninety completion
20:51
Speaker 5: percentage similar. Knicks does have a better TD interception ratio.
20:55
Speaker 5: Stidham hasn't played this year. He hasn't thrown a pass
20:57
Speaker 5: for two years with the Broncos, but he's been in
20:58
Speaker 5: the system now for three years, play a lot three
21:00
Speaker 5: years ago before Nicks. I think it's an overreaction. Home
21:04
Speaker 5: Dogs are a long term seventy percent play in the
21:06
Speaker 5: NFL playoffs for almost four decades now, and I think
21:09
Speaker 5: they're the better defensive team as well. I don't love
21:12
Speaker 5: this Broncos team. I think they're a phony one seed,
21:15
Speaker 5: but this isn't the time to fade them. Maybe we
21:16
Speaker 5: get to fade them in the Super Bowl if they
21:18
Speaker 5: pull the upset. But I think there's some value with
21:19
Speaker 5: Denver plus four and a half.
21:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, Joe, let's stick with the Denver New England game.
21:24
Speaker 1: I like the under in this game, and I know
21:26
Speaker 1: it's been bet up to forty two and a half,
21:29
Speaker 1: but man, I'm trying to put myself in the position
21:32
Speaker 1: of these coaches. And if you look at New England,
21:36
Speaker 1: Will Anderson in the Houston Texans lived in Drake May's
21:40
Speaker 1: house last week. They were all over him. I mean,
21:43
Speaker 1: Drake May had that horrible fumble at their end that
21:48
Speaker 1: should have resulted into a score for the other team
21:51
Speaker 1: for Houston, but ultimately they picked it up. The point
21:54
Speaker 1: I'm making is Denver is going to put a pass
21:59
Speaker 1: rush on Drake that could be dangerous, and I think
22:02
Speaker 1: that from New England's perspective, I see a lot of
22:05
Speaker 1: Remandre Stevenson wheel routes. I see a lot of running
22:09
Speaker 1: up the gut. I see a lot of six yard outs,
22:12
Speaker 1: a couple of slants. I think we're going to see
22:15
Speaker 1: a very conservative game by New England. And I think
22:18
Speaker 1: New England is going to look at this and say, hey,
22:21
Speaker 1: we got a backup quarterback on the other side, let's
22:23
Speaker 1: keep this game moving, let's do eight minute drives. And
22:27
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see the same with Denver.
22:29
Speaker 1: Denver is not going to lose this game because Jared's
22:31
Speaker 1: did him through three interceptions. Denver is going to come
22:34
Speaker 1: into this game looking to run the ball. Play also
22:38
Speaker 1: six yard throws, four yard throws, wheel routes, laterals, that
22:43
Speaker 1: kind of thing. I think we're going to see a
22:44
Speaker 1: conservative game plan from both of these teams. It's going
22:48
Speaker 1: to be cold weather. Both teams have got outstanding defenses.
22:53
Speaker 1: I mean New England in their last four games sixteen
22:58
Speaker 1: to three, ten and ten deadver secondary is outstanding. I
23:02
Speaker 1: just feel like both coaches are going to look to
23:06
Speaker 1: kind of get out of dodge with a W. I
23:09
Speaker 1: like the under in this game, Joe.
23:12
Speaker 4: You want any funny stat I'll give you here.
23:14
Speaker 3: Guys, ready, the career numbers for Jared Stidham forty five
23:19
Speaker 3: point three success rate, six yards per pass play.
23:24
Speaker 4: That's better than bo Knicks, well.
23:27
Speaker 3: As a forty five percent success rate, and all the
23:29
Speaker 3: averages just under six yarchds.
23:32
Speaker 4: Per pants play.
23:33
Speaker 3: The bottom line is coaching matters here, and I think
23:37
Speaker 3: we have this false sense with New England's defense because
23:41
Speaker 3: they were able to get to Herbert and they were
23:44
Speaker 3: able to get the stressed. Those are two of the
23:46
Speaker 3: worst offensive lines when it comes to pass blocking and
23:49
Speaker 3: all of the NFL. To me, I think we're looking
23:53
Speaker 3: at them. There's a whole lot of props in this game.
23:55
Speaker 3: I think that all correlate together. I think Drake may
23:58
Speaker 3: interception is up for grabs.
24:00
Speaker 4: I think that's over half.
24:02
Speaker 3: An interception, and I think Stidham's attempts are going to
24:06
Speaker 3: be up and over. Steve, you mentioned the yardage for
24:11
Speaker 3: him throwing this is a top three offensive line in
24:14
Speaker 3: protecting the quarterback the past, they're they're top three and
24:17
Speaker 3: pass rush defense. They are not going to allow what
24:21
Speaker 3: I think is a little bit of an overrated front
24:24
Speaker 3: now of New England because of the two teams they
24:26
Speaker 3: just played.
24:27
Speaker 4: They're not going to get to Stidham.
24:29
Speaker 3: And I think Stidham's also going to have, believe it
24:31
Speaker 3: or not, the opportunity to go over his rushing prop
24:34
Speaker 3: which I think was twelve and a half yards.
24:37
Speaker 4: The other day.
24:37
Speaker 3: It might be a little higher, but it's not He's
24:40
Speaker 3: got legs, Merril.
24:41
Speaker 4: It's not like he.
24:42
Speaker 3: Doesn't have the ability to run. And we've already seen
24:45
Speaker 3: what Sean Payton does with Nicks designing some of those runs.
24:49
Speaker 3: It actually broke his ankle in that last game. So
24:52
Speaker 3: I think Stidham over rushing, over attempts, overpassing, and I
24:57
Speaker 3: think Drake may absolutely has an eye in them this week.
25:01
Speaker 5: I love it what I like about the passing props.
25:04
Speaker 5: Pres he knows even if you like Denver, he could
25:06
Speaker 5: have a big game passing. As I mentioned, Nicks has
25:08
Speaker 5: gone over two hundred and six of eight. But then
25:10
Speaker 5: if they are losing, he probably has a bigger game
25:12
Speaker 5: pass how as you're playing from behind, so like you
25:14
Speaker 5: get the best of both worlds with some of those
25:16
Speaker 5: yardage props.
25:17
Speaker 4: Yep.
25:18
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what thing, though, I wouldn't put it
25:21
Speaker 1: past Peyton to come out firing right off the bat. No,
25:27
Speaker 1: I feel like, I feel like they're going to have
25:30
Speaker 1: a real strong game plan with that first possession, So
25:33
Speaker 1: you know, I would not be against the over in
25:37
Speaker 1: the first quarter. I will tell you that. Yeah, even
25:40
Speaker 1: about ty.
25:40
Speaker 5: Press, one of my favorite angles has been those early unders,
25:43
Speaker 5: and we saw it like in the championship, we talked
25:45
Speaker 5: about football. We saw in the semi finals Miami O
25:48
Speaker 5: Miss was three points they scored the first play of
25:51
Speaker 5: the second quarter. They scored fifty four points the final
25:53
Speaker 5: three quarters. And as you know, even with Tom Brady
25:56
Speaker 5: back in the day, they always had those low scoing
25:58
Speaker 5: first quarters. So it does depend in the game plan.
26:00
Speaker 5: But I can make that counter argument that they could
26:03
Speaker 5: be conservative with the new quarterback, right, So I don't know,
26:06
Speaker 5: but you're right. The wild card is Peyton. You know,
26:08
Speaker 5: Sean Payton is definitely not conventional. He runs trick plays.
26:11
Speaker 5: He did an on site kick in the Super Bowl
26:13
Speaker 5: that basically won the Saints of championship. You know, that
26:16
Speaker 5: is the real X factor there. But yeah, a lot
26:18
Speaker 5: of these games teams do start a little more conservative.
26:20
Speaker 5: This is also, you know, second third playoff game now
26:23
Speaker 5: for these teams as well.
26:25
Speaker 3: And I could see by the way Drake may also
26:28
Speaker 3: gaining the yardage and having no problem rushing the ball.
26:31
Speaker 3: I could absolutely see him throwing for his yards too
26:34
Speaker 3: as well. I think both quarterbacks are poised to have
26:37
Speaker 3: pretty good passing games in this one, right, Joe, Yeah,
26:43
Speaker 3: there's no it's just getting colder, but the total keeps
26:46
Speaker 3: going up.
26:47
Speaker 1: So it doesn't look like it's going to be very windy.
26:50
Speaker 1: No rain and nothing like that's really important. Okay, there
26:54
Speaker 1: we go. That's our NFL best bets that we're now
26:57
Speaker 1: going on to the clock two minutes each. Joe will
27:00
Speaker 1: do the NBA, I'll do the NHL, And although Steve
27:03
Speaker 1: will not cater to the two minutes because he's making
27:06
Speaker 1: a very special video that we're in content, we're still
27:11
Speaker 1: going to have Steve Merrill's college basketball. Joe, you're up first.
27:14
Speaker 3: I understand it was a little too professional, you said
27:16
Speaker 3: yesterday STEVE'SVIO, So I have to cut back on the professionalism,
27:20
Speaker 3: and I will try to do that. Meantime, let's go
27:23
Speaker 3: to the NBA here tonight. It's going to kick off
27:25
Speaker 3: seven o'clock with the Rockets taking on the Pistons. Rockets
27:30
Speaker 3: couldn't get it done against the Sixers last night, over
27:35
Speaker 3: time loss for them. Now they got to hop back
27:38
Speaker 3: on the road head over to Detroit. Who by the way,
27:40
Speaker 3: we understand now we'll have Kate Cunningham back. This line
27:45
Speaker 3: over nine three, three and a half. It was bet
27:47
Speaker 3: up to four. It got as high as five and
27:49
Speaker 3: a half when Kate Cunningham was announced in but now
27:54
Speaker 3: it looks like it's settling.
27:55
Speaker 4: Right around that four and a half line.
27:58
Speaker 3: And listen any which way it cut it, it's one
28:00
Speaker 3: of the lowest totals on the board tonight. I think
28:02
Speaker 3: that's for a reason. Could be a little bit of
28:05
Speaker 3: a rock fight, very physical game here tonight. In that
28:08
Speaker 3: one the Celtics and Nets. Boy, I don't know how
28:12
Speaker 3: this is not double digits for the Celtics. Nets are
28:14
Speaker 3: getting eight and a half. It feels like, yeah, Nets
28:18
Speaker 3: team total under might be in play here, especially with
28:22
Speaker 3: who is playing for them in that one. The Sun's
28:25
Speaker 3: taking on the Hawks. What a fun one, do you know?
28:28
Speaker 3: Fun trivia? The Suns have not won a game in
28:31
Speaker 3: Atlanta since twenty fourteen until tonight, of course.
28:35
Speaker 4: Kings and Calves, by.
28:36
Speaker 3: The way, also going out of tonight Calves laying eleven
28:41
Speaker 3: eleven and a half Sacramento is just awful?
28:43
Speaker 4: People, who are we kidding?
28:45
Speaker 3: But Demante Siponis is back in this one, and anytime
28:49
Speaker 3: he's on the court, the Kings are better. I don't
28:51
Speaker 3: trust the Calves with that number at home. Thunders should
28:54
Speaker 3: crush the Pacers, or will they because they're laying sixteen
28:59
Speaker 3: And if you have blindly been betting the Thunder, you're
29:02
Speaker 3: likely broke this year against the spread because they don't
29:05
Speaker 3: often cover numbers like this anymore. Having said that, and
29:08
Speaker 3: still the Pacers, I would still back the Thunder, Pelicans
29:12
Speaker 3: and Grizzlies. Pelicans are also terrible, but Zion not on
29:16
Speaker 3: the injury report? The hell's that all about? Likely going
29:19
Speaker 3: with the Grizzlies anyway. Nuggets should handle the box, take
29:23
Speaker 3: the points there, and the Raptors red hot Raptors. I'm
29:27
Speaker 3: going to back the team total under on them in
29:30
Speaker 3: that one.
29:31
Speaker 4: Press Joe, let's.
29:33
Speaker 1: Go to the NHL. And look, we start with Tampa
29:35
Speaker 1: Bay playing Chicago. Chicago under two and a half team total.
29:42
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay just doesn't allow teams to score. You go
29:45
Speaker 1: down the list a one to one, two in regulation,
29:49
Speaker 1: one one, two to two. That's seven games without a
29:52
Speaker 1: team getting more than two goals. Chicago did go over
29:57
Speaker 1: that total yesterday against Caroline, but I think Tampa Bay
30:01
Speaker 1: holds them under two and a half tonight, Vegas playing Toronto.
30:06
Speaker 1: This is a tricky one for me, but I do
30:09
Speaker 1: actually lean on the Vegas Golden Knights tonight there minus
30:13
Speaker 1: one twenty five. I also like the under in this game,
30:16
Speaker 1: but I'm laying off of this game completely. I like Dallas.
30:20
Speaker 1: There's a lot of money coming in on Dallas. If
30:22
Speaker 1: you're gonna bet Dallas, you gotta bet him now. We
30:24
Speaker 1: had Dallas for a client bet last night. They completely
30:28
Speaker 1: dominated that hockey game but lost one nothing, just couldn't
30:33
Speaker 1: find the net. I think they get it done tonight.
30:35
Speaker 1: Calgary playing Washington. Don't overthink it. Take the under in
30:40
Speaker 1: this game. Washington games tend to play to the under
30:42
Speaker 1: and Calgary will play to the under. Movie board all
30:45
Speaker 1: your Philadelphia playing Colorado this is another one of those.
30:49
Speaker 1: Just take Philadelphia team total under two and a half
30:52
Speaker 1: and don't overthink it. You got Anaheim in Seattle. I
30:56
Speaker 1: think Seattle is a bet on team moving forward. I
30:59
Speaker 1: like them. Here is a short number at minus one
31:01
Speaker 1: point fifteen. Take the Kraken, San Jose and the New
31:05
Speaker 1: York Rangers. Although I never want to bet the Rangers
31:09
Speaker 1: over they're playing San Jose. This game is gonna get
31:12
Speaker 1: well over six and a half goals. San Jose can
31:15
Speaker 1: score and they can't play defense. I think that game
31:19
Speaker 1: is a big, big number what all said and done,
31:22
Speaker 1: and I like the under in the Vancouver, New Jersey game.
31:27
Speaker 1: Steve Merrill college basketball is yours.
31:33
Speaker 5: Gonna look at two national TV games Friday night in
31:35
Speaker 5: college hoops, both on Fox Sports One. You're eight o'clock
31:38
Speaker 5: and ten o'clock Eastern games. Just a quicker mind. If
31:40
Speaker 5: you're liking these video thumbs up, like comment blow, We
31:43
Speaker 5: read the comments and we reply back here on wager
31:45
Speaker 5: Talk TV and click subscribe and click that bell for
31:48
Speaker 5: instant alerts, including my NFL double video for the NFC
31:52
Speaker 5: and AFC Championship games this weekend, and also college basketball
31:54
Speaker 5: Top twenty five video starts this Saturday. Don't miss it,
31:58
Speaker 5: click subscribe, click the bell. First game at eight o'clock
32:00
Speaker 5: Eastern on Fox Sports One tonight is Marquette at Butler.
32:05
Speaker 5: Currently Butler about a six point favorite. It hasn't moved
32:07
Speaker 5: too much. Has seen some money coming on the over
32:09
Speaker 5: one fifty nine up to one sixty one sixty and
32:11
Speaker 5: a half, and I agree with the over move here.
32:13
Speaker 5: These are two teams that play up tempo, fast basketball,
32:16
Speaker 5: both two of the faster teams in the country as
32:18
Speaker 5: far as possessions in tempo and also Butler gets to
32:21
Speaker 5: the free throw line a lot. The Butler does it
32:23
Speaker 5: from the free throw line this season in a high
32:25
Speaker 5: percentage of their points from the charity strike. Now, Marquette
32:29
Speaker 5: not a very good three point shooting team, and Mark
32:31
Speaker 5: Butler does not give up many threes, so that's my
32:34
Speaker 5: only concern getting up in over one sixty and a half,
32:36
Speaker 5: I lean over, but the best way I think to
32:38
Speaker 5: attack this is a Butler team total up and over
32:41
Speaker 5: eighty three. If you have access to team totals, take
32:43
Speaker 5: a look at Butler team total over eighty three tonight.
32:46
Speaker 5: This could also be a Marquette defense that is a
32:48
Speaker 5: little fatigued. They snapped their three game losing streak. In fact,
32:52
Speaker 5: they had lost on nine of their previous ten games
32:55
Speaker 5: until an overtime win at home Monday one oh five,
32:58
Speaker 5: one oh four against Providence. They've just been bad defensively
33:01
Speaker 5: all season. I like the over, but I specifically think
33:04
Speaker 5: Butler does the heavy lifting. Butler team total over eighty
33:07
Speaker 5: three probably the best way to attack it. At eight
33:09
Speaker 5: eastern on Fox Sports One, your late night game at
33:12
Speaker 5: ten o'clock eastern is Utah State Colorado State, and we've
33:16
Speaker 5: got the Aggies versus the Rams here as you see
33:18
Speaker 5: on the screen, and we're gonna have Utah State currently
33:20
Speaker 5: opening about a three and a half point favorite, up
33:22
Speaker 5: to four and a half five now, we've definitely seen
33:23
Speaker 5: some money come in on the road favorite. Yet the
33:26
Speaker 5: total has dropped in this game one fifty two down
33:28
Speaker 5: to one forty eight, even a one to forty seven
33:31
Speaker 5: and a half showing and that makes sense. Colorado State
33:33
Speaker 5: is one of the slowest half court teams in the nation.
33:36
Speaker 5: It's like watching paint dry. Three hundred and sixty five
33:39
Speaker 5: teams in college basketball this year, they played the third
33:41
Speaker 5: slowest tempo, the third fewest possessions of anybody in the country.
33:46
Speaker 5: That's why this total has dropped, yet the pointspread has
33:48
Speaker 5: gone higher. A little counterintuitive because obviously, if Colorado State's
33:51
Speaker 5: going to control the tempo in this game, they probably
33:54
Speaker 5: at the edge. What gets a little bit tricky though,
33:56
Speaker 5: they have the second best three point shooting offense in
33:59
Speaker 5: the country, and they take a lot of threes, so
34:02
Speaker 5: it is a little surprising their games are so low scoring,
34:05
Speaker 5: and it will depend that they can dictate their tempo.
34:07
Speaker 5: But these are two very good offensive teams. In fact,
34:10
Speaker 5: the effective field goal percentage they both rank top twenty
34:12
Speaker 5: in the country, and two point shooting they're both top fifty.
34:15
Speaker 5: As I mentioned, Colorado State the second best three point
34:18
Speaker 5: shooting team. They play slow, but they're an efficient offense,
34:22
Speaker 5: and they do give up a lot of threes. And
34:23
Speaker 5: Utah State also hits the three point shot. So this
34:27
Speaker 5: is one of those moves. I'm gonna disagree with the
34:28
Speaker 5: total move here. I know it seems like it's a
34:30
Speaker 5: big total for a slow paced team, but I think
34:31
Speaker 5: Utah State Colorado State might be a little higher scoring
34:34
Speaker 5: than expected. Take a look over one forty eight. In
34:36
Speaker 5: that one one forty seven and a half one forty eight,
34:39
Speaker 5: and I think that actually correlates to Colorado State, even
34:42
Speaker 5: though they play slower. I think if they're trading baskets here,
34:45
Speaker 5: they can hang. I disagree with the money moves in
34:46
Speaker 5: this one. I would lean Colorado State plus the four
34:48
Speaker 5: and a half five and over one forty eight now
34:51
Speaker 5: that the line is lower. That's your ten o'clock Eastern game,
34:53
Speaker 5: also on Fox Sports one. And don't forget you want
34:56
Speaker 5: my strongest best bets for Friday Night two, NBA one
34:59
Speaker 5: college and any bonus college free play on my page
35:02
Speaker 5: right now, Steve merriwager Talk dot com and get there
35:04
Speaker 5: quicker with a shortcut you see on your screen wt
35:07
Speaker 5: dot buzz slash sm. I haven't missed an NBA Best
35:09
Speaker 5: bet in nearly ten days. It's been ten days since
35:11
Speaker 5: I missed an NBA best bet. We swept the board
35:14
Speaker 5: so far this week. I've got two more going tonight
35:16
Speaker 5: college best bet, bonus free play and an NBA Rest
35:20
Speaker 5: of the season special is loaded as well, the lowest
35:22
Speaker 5: price of the year for my number one ranked NBA
35:25
Speaker 5: don't miss at Steve merrilwager Talk dot com, hit subscribe,
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Speaker 5: hit the bell like and comment below, and I'll be
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Speaker 5: back this week and more free play videos right here
35:32
Speaker 5: on wager Talk TV.
35:34
Speaker 1: Brilliant stuff, Steve Merrill, awesome. Okay, mail back section. So
35:39
Speaker 1: what you guys who don't know about the segment. We
35:41
Speaker 1: go through some of the comments and it's we don't
35:44
Speaker 1: do any research ahead of time, so I'm just reading
35:48
Speaker 1: them as they come. Joe Corey Mosar, Yeah, right. I
35:52
Speaker 1: would like to know who Joe's favorite college basketball team
35:55
Speaker 1: is to win the championship. And I'll ask you the
35:58
Speaker 1: same question, Steve, because I know you're ex that the sport.
36:02
Speaker 3: I have two future bets that I made, and one
36:06
Speaker 3: of them is on Florida to repeat, and the other
36:09
Speaker 3: one was Arizona. So those are the two teams that
36:14
Speaker 3: I think have enough depth and talent come March to
36:18
Speaker 3: be able to.
36:19
Speaker 4: Make a serious run at it.
36:21
Speaker 3: A lot of things got to break your way, but
36:23
Speaker 3: both those teams were a lot better priced just a
36:26
Speaker 3: month ago than they are right now. But I like
36:29
Speaker 3: Arizona and Florida here to have a real shot.
36:33
Speaker 4: At going back to back. Steve.
36:36
Speaker 5: I mean, Arizona's a really good team. And it's interesting,
36:38
Speaker 5: Priise because I'm starting my college basketball Top twenty five
36:41
Speaker 5: video for every Saturday. I'll be recording that today on Friday.
36:44
Speaker 5: So I don't normally look at the rankings because they
36:46
Speaker 5: don't mean much. But when I'm doing the videos I
36:47
Speaker 5: do for football and basketball, and I noticed today as
36:49
Speaker 5: I was preparing for that later that Arizona's getting every
36:53
Speaker 5: single first place vote. I think they're getting all sixty
36:55
Speaker 5: one first place votes in the AMP. That's a grocery
36:59
Speaker 5: store here in the United States. By the way, that's
37:01
Speaker 5: why I'm laughing AMP the AP poll because they're nineteen
37:05
Speaker 5: and oh they're undefeated. I get it. But I've all
37:07
Speaker 5: season long and I still have Michigan as the best
37:09
Speaker 5: team in the country at seventeen and one, and they're
37:12
Speaker 5: third in the polls. I mentioned this yesterday on the show,
37:14
Speaker 5: and they play Ohio State tonight. By the way, they're
37:16
Speaker 5: the number one two point shooting offense and the number
37:19
Speaker 5: one two point shooting defense. Let that sink in. There
37:21
Speaker 5: are three hundred and sixty five teams and they're the
37:24
Speaker 5: best at both offense and defense from two point range.
37:28
Speaker 5: And that's the consistency factory.
37:29
Speaker 4: Know.
37:29
Speaker 5: You live by the three you died by the three,
37:31
Speaker 5: and to win six games in a row in the tournament.
37:33
Speaker 5: It's really hard to be on every game where I
37:35
Speaker 5: think Michigan's got that size of consistency and they're just
37:39
Speaker 5: great at both ends of the court. So I think
37:40
Speaker 5: Michigan's the team to beat. Not gonna get a ton
37:42
Speaker 5: of value with them, but that's my pick right now.
37:44
Speaker 5: If you're going a little bit deeper down the list,
37:46
Speaker 5: I'd like to look for balanced teams. I'll go down
37:48
Speaker 5: like teams that are outside like the top twenty even
37:51
Speaker 5: And first of all, you know, last year nobody believed
37:53
Speaker 5: in the ACC. They had a decent run of the tournament.
37:57
Speaker 5: SEC got fourteen of the sixteen teams, and you know,
37:59
Speaker 5: so you got to be careful now that when conference
38:01
Speaker 5: plays sometimes teams look better or worse than they really are.
38:04
Speaker 5: A team I'm talking about in my video this week,
38:06
Speaker 5: and they play Houston also Texas Tech right now, early
38:09
Speaker 5: top twenty team. I think they're very balanced as well,
38:12
Speaker 5: really good offensive team. And as Joe knows, you know,
38:15
Speaker 5: the old saying defense wins championships is kind of true.
38:17
Speaker 5: But in the modern era, all these national champs in
38:20
Speaker 5: football basketball, they're all great offensive teams. I've got Texas
38:24
Speaker 5: Tech as a top ten offense right now.
38:25
Speaker 4: Yep, great question.
38:27
Speaker 1: Corey Aubrey writes, absolutely love Steve on the show. Funny
38:31
Speaker 1: as hell, Douglas, you guys, crack me up. De Sosa
38:35
Speaker 1: best show on Earth. That's really great. Arthur Hernandez writes,
38:42
Speaker 1: if the tickets are four to one on Seattle, why
38:44
Speaker 1: is that line not moving? Art did discuss this a
38:48
Speaker 1: little earlier. Volume does not move lines? People move lines.
38:55
Speaker 1: Joe is ageless. Guess who wrote that, Joe rn Airey.
39:01
Speaker 3: Girl, Celeste, Yes, there you go the last.
39:08
Speaker 1: We love you, Celeste, thank you for being with us
39:12
Speaker 1: every day. Uh yeah, the parlay last night was trash.
39:19
Speaker 1: That was from c Hebard. Yeah it was, we own it.
39:24
Speaker 1: Mind boggle rights. This is the best betting show ever.
39:28
Speaker 1: Steve Barrell brings a level headed anchor to this group.
39:34
Speaker 1: Uh have you ever been called an anchor before?
39:36
Speaker 4: I like that.
39:37
Speaker 5: I love it. I have been called Will Ferrell, as
39:39
Speaker 5: Joe knows several he was an anchor man. So I'm
39:41
Speaker 5: starting to see the six degrees of Will Ferrell there.
39:44
Speaker 5: I'll bring that in whenever possible.
39:45
Speaker 4: I like that.
39:47
Speaker 1: Shout out to Larry Hart unknown entity. De Beck likes
39:52
Speaker 1: the Pats Rams money line parlay lockett In, he says, okay,
39:59
Speaker 1: and great show is always a Mike T. I love
40:03
Speaker 1: Round Robins, I hate Round Robins. Who but that's okay.
40:09
Speaker 5: I know, I'm sure they make a good burger.
40:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't it all seriousness. Let's just stop
40:17
Speaker 1: right there. Do you make parlay bet Steve like in
40:21
Speaker 1: your own personal life?
40:23
Speaker 5: No, the only time a parlay is a good play,
40:25
Speaker 5: and I occasionally make them. Well, I'll tell the story.
40:28
Speaker 5: Nobody allowed you to do these anymore when they correlated. Yeah,
40:31
Speaker 5: and you can still sometimes, like on a side total
40:33
Speaker 5: in the same game I mentioned that Colrad of State game.
40:36
Speaker 5: They play extremely slow, So you know, sometimes you have
40:38
Speaker 5: a slow team versus a fast team in college hoops,
40:41
Speaker 5: and it's going to probably depend on who can control
40:43
Speaker 5: to dictate the tempo. Slow is gonna favor one team
40:46
Speaker 5: fast the other. So you can do a side total
40:48
Speaker 5: parlay because the outcome is correlated. The story I'll tell
40:51
Speaker 5: real quick though, about twenty some years ago some of
40:52
Speaker 5: the offshores were dumb enough to let you correlate parlays
40:57
Speaker 5: in college football when they be playing those blowout games
41:00
Speaker 5: would take you know, the minus forty eight over fifty four,
41:03
Speaker 5: the plus forty eight under fifty four in the same
41:05
Speaker 5: college football game, and most books wouldn't let you do that.
41:08
Speaker 5: Even twenty years ago a few still let you do it.
41:10
Speaker 5: That did not last long as you can imagine. But yeah,
41:13
Speaker 5: correlated parlay usually side total, same game is the only
41:16
Speaker 5: time it would actually make sense.
41:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I almost never bet parlays myself. I have
41:21
Speaker 1: did a few money line parlays this year in NFL.
41:25
Speaker 1: I did go through a period and there was one
41:30
Speaker 1: season in the NFL where I took the Peyton Manning
41:34
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Drin James'.
41:39
Speaker 5: Team.
41:39
Speaker 1: I took the Colts and the over parlayed them every week,
41:44
Speaker 1: and that's correlated.
41:46
Speaker 5: That's because they were good. They were a great offensive team.
41:49
Speaker 1: So that makes sense time and I did that like
41:52
Speaker 1: for a whole season and it went really, really well.
41:55
Speaker 1: I have tried to find those bets since I tried
41:59
Speaker 1: to do it with The Greatest Show on Earth with
42:01
Speaker 1: the Rams it didn't work, and I have tried to
42:04
Speaker 1: do it with the Dent Detroit Lions over the last
42:09
Speaker 1: few years, and it also they were going over but
42:12
Speaker 1: they weren't covering or they were covering and it wasn't
42:15
Speaker 1: going over and I couldn't find that rhythm that I
42:18
Speaker 1: was able to get that one year with the Colts.
42:21
Speaker 1: But I don't normally do parlays either.
42:24
Speaker 3: What about you, Joe, It's gotta be I mean the occasional,
42:29
Speaker 3: you know, like I said during the NFL season, the
42:32
Speaker 3: five team money line parlay round robin is is something
42:36
Speaker 3: you like when you've got some favorites that you think
42:40
Speaker 3: can run a table and maybe a big dog outside
42:43
Speaker 3: of that. The other big thing that's become popular now though,
42:48
Speaker 3: are these same game teasers, Meryl, And when you're down
42:53
Speaker 3: to these limited games and you've got like, let's say
42:56
Speaker 3: Seattle coming up right, Seattle laying two and a half,
42:59
Speaker 3: ran Is getting two and a half. There's not really
43:02
Speaker 3: a traditional long teaser in the Patriot and Bronco game
43:07
Speaker 3: to utilize, but there is, uh, you know, a situation
43:11
Speaker 3: where you could get the rams up to eight and
43:13
Speaker 3: a half. And if you think there's gonna be more
43:15
Speaker 3: points or less points in this game, you know, sometimes
43:18
Speaker 3: those same game teasers, as long as you're not getting
43:21
Speaker 3: killed at minus one thirty five or something I've never
43:25
Speaker 3: want to say.
43:26
Speaker 5: I was just say Press real quick that something else
43:28
Speaker 5: has gonna point out to the same game parlays that
43:30
Speaker 5: like FanDuel, you know, are big on and stuff and
43:31
Speaker 5: they let you do a lot of those are correlated
43:34
Speaker 5: and people are like, oh, I've got an edge, but
43:35
Speaker 5: they're giving you their payout, so you still you're not
43:38
Speaker 5: getting odds still, So like crazy, just because something's correlated,
43:41
Speaker 5: you got to make sure you're getting the true odds still, right.
43:43
Speaker 5: So there's so many different layers to it.
43:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, teaser and play minus one forty, Like that's.
43:49
Speaker 5: Not When you said that, it made me think about it,
43:51
Speaker 5: Like the teasers are great mathematical plays, but they've been
43:53
Speaker 5: priced out now at minus one forty. The other thing
43:56
Speaker 5: I'll say Press about parlay is one thing I left
43:58
Speaker 5: out there is a useful You're not changing the math,
44:01
Speaker 5: like you're getting skewed on the payoffs more than if
44:03
Speaker 5: you just play the game straight long term. But there
44:07
Speaker 5: is a use for him from a money management perspective,
44:09
Speaker 5: And what kills ninety nine percent of the losing sports
44:11
Speaker 5: betters out there is that they don't manage their money correctly.
44:14
Speaker 5: They're just here and there they don't have an edge.
44:16
Speaker 5: You know. So if you want to have fun every
44:18
Speaker 5: weekend and play a five or ten dollars parlay, you know,
44:20
Speaker 5: like here on the show, if you want to put
44:21
Speaker 5: five or ten bucks down on our three or fourteen
44:23
Speaker 5: parlay every day, nothing wrong with that because from a
44:26
Speaker 5: risk reward perspective, it's a pretty good deal because you're
44:28
Speaker 5: not risking a lot. You could have that big payday
44:30
Speaker 5: and that's like Joe was talking about with the five games.
44:32
Speaker 5: Maybe on an NFL Saturday or Sunday, but once again,
44:36
Speaker 5: you're not changing the math. If you're serious from an
44:38
Speaker 5: investment perspective, you should be playing all of our best
44:41
Speaker 5: bets at wager talk dot com a four percent of
44:43
Speaker 5: bank or whatever we're rating them, including.
44:47
Speaker 1: Our parlay of the day. We're going to call it
44:49
Speaker 1: a parlay of the day. Play him straight, Steve, Joe,
44:53
Speaker 1: thanks for this, guys. Steve Merril will be with us
44:56
Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday of next week. He will be hosting
44:59
Speaker 1: the entire Super Bowl week start to finish. I will
45:04
Speaker 1: not be around.
45:06
Speaker 5: So I made that face as she screamed off, I
45:08
Speaker 5: was already making that. I went right as I did
45:11
Speaker 5: that people have been backing up and watching. If you're
45:13
Speaker 5: watching this now, you got to back it up and
45:15
Speaker 5: watch it. I literally did that and it morphed into.
45:18
Speaker 4: Wow, outstanding. Yep.
45:21
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, man, that super Bowl
45:23
Speaker 5: week is just gonna be like, it's gonna be forget.
45:27
Speaker 4: Like this.
45:28
Speaker 5: Joe and I are like this, what are you?
45:31
Speaker 4: And I like, oh, that's double.
45:37
Speaker 5: We're you? You love that that? I like the loo
45:46
Speaker 5: Isaac from the Love Boat.
45:48
Speaker 4: Yeah, to.
45:52
Speaker 1: Put that out, guys of the comments section.
45:56
Speaker 5: I don't know what that one was a cap gun.
45:58
Speaker 5: That sounds like we did the dance. Mann did the.
46:05
Speaker 1: Dam that's right? Sorry, what did this? What is the
46:13
Speaker 1: leather Tuscadero did this?
46:16
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, that was another Happy Days Reford.
46:19
Speaker 4: Yeah.
46:19
Speaker 5: Yeah, you're digging deep. You're digging deep, you're going away.
46:22
Speaker 1: Back tip of the Malachi crunch.
46:25
Speaker 5: I knew that one, all right. And then President jumping.
46:31
Speaker 1: Jump the shot and and I well know, I'm actually
46:36
Speaker 1: enjoying you.
46:36
Speaker 3: If you can do the rerun dance on the way
46:39
Speaker 3: out would be fantastic.
46:43
Speaker 5: You have a seat moving