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US Open PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear. You're living up? What's up everyone?
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Tyler Tambaline here aka to Tag and Tambo Back for
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the Ship a
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Nation YouTube station with my guy Alex Blickel as usual
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: breaking down all things this week for the third major
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: of the season, the US Open at Shinnecock.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Excited for this one, Alex, bring you in first man.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: We got a lot to talk about here, Gonna get
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: to it as usual, we will break down for the
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: US Open, the chalk build, how to leverage the chalk build,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: What areane is? The betting breakdown, the one and done.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Just a ton of different things to talk about for
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: this week, by friend, But how you doing? Another major?
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Had some great contests out there. Starting to fill up
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: now though, starting to fill up here on a Wednesday.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't wait for this week. This is as
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: excited as I've been for like any golf tournament in
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: a long long time. I think this course is spectacular
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: and the wind is going to be there every single day,
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: And the other thing there is like you know, last
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: year on Saturday, I think a lot of people know
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: the story by now. The wind switched on the USGA
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: and so you know, pins that we're supposed to be
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: on slopes that were into the wind, suddenly we're on
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: slopes that were downwind, and they really kind of lost
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: control of it. But it seems like the forecast is
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: pretty straightforward this week, and the fact that like there's
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: heavy wind already in the forecasts. I think we'll see,
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: you know, the USGA do a much better job of
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: putting pins in locations where they have some protection, because
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: they really don't need to put pins in difficult spots
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: for the scoring to be really really tricky this week.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: I think it's going to be just an absolutely awesome
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: watch and hopefully it's just as good from a DFS perspective.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it will be. And I think there's
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: just no way to avoid.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: I know we've said this a bunch of times this season,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: and people are We're wrong as much as everybody else
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: is all the time, but just noting it like this
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: one has to be the carnage like just has to be.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: You know, we always oh, it's gonna be tougher this
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: week than before, and then like these guys just tear
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: it up. Like from everything I've heard and the people
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: that are there and our guy Matt Gannon boots on
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: the ground, and just all the stuff that I'm hearing,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the weather we see coming in which I know you'll
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: pull up here in a little bit. It does look
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: pretty crazy this week. Before we get into this, I
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: want to let everybody know. First off, shout up to
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: my guy Gary. I don't think I've ever seen him
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: in here. First, it must be a major week.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: Gary.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: We appreciate you, but.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Said can't wait for the wisdom and the beauty. This
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: show provides a ton of other good people. Want to
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: shout out Treadwell Tree Surgeons. This is w t read
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: five on Draftings one fifty k plus a couple of
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: weeks ago, going to be giving away a one hundred
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: dollars membership to ship at Nation today, so we'll get
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: that from you guys later. The way we're gonna do
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: it is just leave a comment after the show let
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: us know your favorite play in the sixth and then
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: we'll base it off of that and we'll give that
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: membership away next week. So shout out to Treadwell Tree
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Surgeons for the hundred bucks over to ship at Nation.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: And then before we get started, I am going to
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: quickly just go to this mode. This is We'll save
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: the marketing for later. We'll have a ton of that,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: but I got to start with this. We'll have everybody's attention,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: so very important as many of you know, especially members
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: over at ship in Nation, but just as the DFS community,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: fantasy sports.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Community as a whole. We did lose someone very important
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: to us last year, James the degenerate seventy five, when
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: he passed after his long fifteen month battle with cancer,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: just doing everything possible and his good natured spirit to
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: be there for everybody in our community and just the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: community as a whole. We did do a GoFundMe for James,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and so what his family wanted was, you know, some donations,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: which we've done, and then wanted sort of the rest
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: of the money to go towards something that could help
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: everybody and be there the same way James was for everybody.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So we've created the Big Guy Event. We used all
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the rest of the money from the GOFUMMI.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: So thanks to all those who donated and the sponsors
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: like sports and Sabersim and some of the bigger ones
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: out there as well, all of the donors that put
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: money in that put big amounts will be able to
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: come to this and have already reached out to them
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: for free, get the collectible, get all of that, and
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: then for everybody else.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: We are having sort of a Savior seat.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: So the link will put into the description, but it
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: is on the ship at Nation site. This is open
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to everybody across the entire DFA space. It's not just
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: a ship Nation event. Anybody that's anybody out there that
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: wants to come can can come out and support and
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: celebrate James. But it is going to be August twenty first,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: seven thirty to ten thirty pm at the d Casino
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is going to be
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: a celebration of our guy, the true one to one,
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: James himself. You can save your seat. It's going to
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: be the twelfth floor at the Detroit Ballroom. Everybody is
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: welcome and there's a few different ways to get in.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: You can buy just the seat, which comes with a
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: couple drink tickets, the appetizers, the games, the watch party, everything.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Obviously it's not cheap to rent out a ballroom for
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: a whole night and do all this stuff out in
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Las Vegas, but we've got you set up there. If
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: you want to get just the co collectible and you
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: can't come, there's one hundred of these available now much
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: less because we put this out live this week, but
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: just noting it. The big Guy Burgundy T shirt, he
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: was always there. You can go see his avatar on
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: x now even still Ron Burgundy, so we kind of
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: blended that together. And then the hat that he's wearing
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: in the collectible is also coming with the collectible piece
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: as well. And then if you want the duo, we
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: went with the ode to DJN DJEN so seventy five
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: seventy five and one of one for the price is
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: obviously a no brainer if you're going to be able
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: to come out there to get the collectible, get everything
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: that comes with both, and finally just just some people
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: to ask, like, first off, one, if you've already given
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: a donation, we appreciate it. Like I said, we did
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: over ten thousand dollars in donations from the GOFUMMI as
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: well to certain causes that James and his family had
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: wanted us to put that money towards. So we appreciate
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: everyone from that perspective, but we definitely have wanted to
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: make note as we did right here and in the
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: bold at the bottom, one hundred percent of all this
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: money will go towards future Big Guy events. And the
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: idea there is if you can't make this year, or
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Vegas is too far or whatever that might be, you
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: are able to still go to a future event because
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: all this money that will be collected will be towards
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: the next time around, and we'll see how big we
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: can make that. If you have any questions, you can
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: of course reach out Alex.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I'll kick it over.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: You don't anything else you want to add on this,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: but just to note it, you know, for anybody that
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: can go, we would love to have as many people
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: as possible out of the Big Guy Event for the
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: first ever.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if you didn't start with this, I was gonna
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: ask if you wanted to start with this, because it's
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: it's really important obviously, And I hope that he knows
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: what a lasting impact that he had, what a lasting
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: impact he had, because like you know, even every single
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: week when we're not talking about the Big Guy Event,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: we're still making reference to Donkey Chuck, we're still making
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: reference to h R R R. Like all these you know,
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: little things that he did in his shows that just
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: you know, it shows like how infectious his energy was
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: and how like genuinely just smart his shows were, and
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: his analysis was so really miss him and I know
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: that we're not alone and saying that.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent Man and Jordan.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Just to be clear, it's the Detroit ballroom at the
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: casino and the the casino and hotel in Las Vegas that,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: by the way, is the sister casino of Circa. So
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: some of the thought process was around and shut up
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: to Jeffrey Benson over at Circa. Just an awesome dude
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: was able to hook us up with a ton of
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: different things to try and help us out to even
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: get this ability to get this room in the special
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: ballroom and all that stuff to go with it.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: But it is a time of year where it's just
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: before football starts. Hard to line it.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Up for everybody, I know, some people have certain things
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: going on. Not everybody can make it. But just to note,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: we had to. You know, it was two weekends. It
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: was picking between this is the one that had it
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: all that we could get everything we needed. So this
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: is how it worked out. But some people can get
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: their Circus survivor entries in and things like that while
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: we're down there, So it should be a really good time.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: If you can join us, we'd love to have you.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: If not, you know, reach out, do a donation, whatever
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: it is you want to do. If you want to
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: come to future events, just let us know. We appreciate
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: everyone out there, all right, any other questions about that,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: you guys can definitely just reach out and let me know.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about you know, no recap really of last week.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: We want to focus on the major here, Alex, but
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: I will say one thing that was noted for sure,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: not to my advantage by any means, but didn't want
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: to talk quickly about those satellites. Shout out to everybody
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: out there who sort of reached out. It looks like
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: the reps listened. So if you hit up support at
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: DraftKings or VIP at DraftKings dot com and hit them
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: up about these satellites. We shit on them a lot
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: about certain things with contests and payout structures and all
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: these different factors. But when they come through, you should
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: really thank them. I know I played way more than
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: I should have, and it didn't even get me where
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: I wanted to go. A lot of second third fourth
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: places for these Q tickets, but nobody cares work harder.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: I will say though, it was awesome to see the
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: lobbies filled up with all those satellites, still like you
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: can still go play baseball today, and they didn't have
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: a chance to win a mega ticket to tomorrow.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So any thoughts on those saddies that we talked about
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: a couple weeks.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: Ago, Yeah, I completely agree there, and I would very
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: much encourage people to reach out again to support into
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the reps and basically just say exactly that, like number one,
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: appreciate the added satellites. But I think part of why
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: they did it, especially this week is because it's one
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: week from the US Open, and I think they're they're
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: missing out, and so you know, anyone can reach chant
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: and just say hey, just you guys, know, like I
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: played so much more in MLB this week because I
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: was trying to win a ticket, and I'm going to
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: try to win a ticket a month out, two months out.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: It doesn't need to be the week of If you
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: put satellites in those lobbies, especially for PGA, I'm going
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: to go play more than I otherwise would. And so
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: it seems to have made an impact and Hopefully we
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: can continue to see that because it's been awesome. Like
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: every single you know, MLB Slate this week has had
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: thirteen dollars thirty seven dollars seventy dollars satellites into the
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: US Open Mega and I love to see that. Hopefully
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: we see it more. And you know, they they've been
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: really good at the satellites in PGA mainslights all season,
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: but in the last couple of weeks we've also seen
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: them be better with the showdown satellites and hopefully we
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: see more of that as well.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent Brian.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: There was a tribute video we did around his celebration
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: of life that we did, you know, virtually last year.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: If you want to go into the discord and just
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: tag editor, he might be able to get you that.
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: I think it's unlisted. It was more for the community,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: but if you want to check that out. Certainly did
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: an incredible job the team that put that video together,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: and we'll have that playing to play at the Big
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Guy event as well. Said it's a bit of a
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: watch party, there is some opportunity for that there. So
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: just so you guys know, as far as this week
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: goes to the us open the topic of discussion before
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: we get into like the chalk builds and talking about
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Scotty and the fourteen nine price tag and how the
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: soft the pricing is, the crazy you know ranges of
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: you know how short the nine k range is so small,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: the ak and seven K range very small comparatively to
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: what they usually are. First up has got to be
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: the weather. So I think if we go back here,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to remove this. We'll pull this up
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: and then I.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Think I just got to go to this one and
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I will fix it this way. Sorry man, All.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Right, let's talk a little bit about the weather and
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: just how it relates to everything the course, you know,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: the course fit, you know what people really know or think.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are wondering, will golfers
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: come off the course?
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: How would that work out for wave advantages, pod advantages
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: almost like a allow the Open or back in the
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: day the British Open, things like that. Give me all
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: of your thoughts when it comes to the weather, and
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: you've got it in front of here to break it
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: all down so you can sort of relay it from
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: that perspective as well.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the first thing to note is like,
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: if we do get the fifty one mile per hour
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: gusts that this model is showing, and that I've seen
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: some others on Twitter showing, it would be shocking if
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: players can actually stay on the golf course because these
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: these greens are so sloped in certain areas. And I
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: think Rory said they were already at like eleven and
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: a half a few days ago, and he said they
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: didn't need to get any faster, but the USG is
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: probably gonna make them a little bit faster, so they are.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: They're definitely running out of room with the wind in
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: that regard, so I think guys will be taking off
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: the course because balls just won't stay in one spot
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: on the green. And so, you know, it's not a
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: it's not like, oh this is just too difficult to
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: hit in. It's like, literally the ball won't stay where
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: it needs to on the green, so it becomes truly unplayable.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: And it's not you know, the USGA being soft or
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: anything like that. But a lot of these forecasts don't
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: have a getting to fifty one on Thursday saying it's
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: just you know, sustained around twenty to twenty five gus
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: to thirty I mean, like all of these look at this,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: like sustained it twenty eight, sustained at thirty one here,
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: like these are serious, serious wins. The the course itself
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: is wide open, so there's nothing slowing down the wind.
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: It's right next to water, so if anything like the
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: observed winds on the course are going to feel or
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: even be stronger than what is actually forecasted, So I
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: think it's the cool thing is like even the quote
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: unquote lightest day of winds, which looks like Friday for
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: the week, is still pretty windy, and it's gonna feel
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: even windy on the course. I think we're gonna get
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: just some really fascinating fun golf all week long. But
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Thursday especially is going to be a crazy, crazy test.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I don't at the moment see a wave advantage of
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: any kind, but I do think this is one of
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: the weeks like anytime you have this much wind forecasted,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: the chance that one of the waves just dies down
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: a little bit, like it's just too great to not
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: at least consider a wave stack in one way or another.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: So I'm not seeing like a specific advantage right now,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: and I don't think that the field is going to
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: have a bias towards one wave or the other from
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: an ownership perspective, But I do think it's a viable strategy.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: I think the main thing is just you need players
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: who are pretty good in wind, and certainly who are
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: good in difficult scoring conditions.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll bring Jordan's back up. This is the thing.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Like again, this is all what ifs and butts though, right,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: you know, like I know you're saying the same Thingsta,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: but you know, above forty only two models even show
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: that there's gusts a forty plus and that's two models
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: and it may not even happen. So there's no there's
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: not even close. To me, it's not even like it's
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: like seventy five percent or something. They're gonna pull these
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: guys off. They're like, I if it stays just thirty
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: five gusting, they're not pulling them off.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think at that level.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: And so to me, that's where people will be like,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: oh man, I went for this, and I did this
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: to Alex's I will add, though, if I'm doing wave
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: stacking here, it's much more of like the open like
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: I talked about, I'm looking at like the very early
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: pocket and Unfortunately, there's not a lot of great golfers
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: that you'll see go off very first thing in the morning.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of five K golfers and things like that,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: so that won't make it all work. But I think
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: in reality, and when we talked through it, you did
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: a great job. And that's why I brought Jordan's thing up.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: He's actually asking a different question about what I was
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: going to say. But you did touch on the wind
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: in a different way yesterday, and the thing for me
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: was it wasn't just the wind that you touched on.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: You touched on difficult conditions, difficult courses. This is one
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: of those, and to me, when you go back to it,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: and like you said, everyone's gonna have to struggle through
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: some sort of wind here by the looks of this,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: if you have a portfolio, definitely recommend spreading it out.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: But if not, and you're going to kind of pick
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: your one lineup, I would be focused on having those
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: golfers that can grind and like you're going to talk about,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: can get through these difficult conditions, because what if they
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: can get through Thursday and then you know Friday still
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: has some but they it's kind of more calm. That's
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: gonna be the guys, but not only a get through
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: and make the cut, but that's gonna be the guys
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: that also can grind that Saturday wind and leading into
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Sunday and then give yourself at least some sort of
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: opportunity to spike a winner with a lineup with six
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: or six et cetera, et cetera. Do you have anything
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: to add on that, and then you can get to
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Jordan's question here on the screen.
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just real quick. Like, I think part of what
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: you're alluding to is I put together my own splits
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: in my discord and kind of talked about the research
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: along with that that I did on Pat Show yesterday.
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: But basically, like we there's definitely overlap whenever you look
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: at difficult scoring conditions and windy splits, because it's a
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: lot of the time, like the reason why scoring conditions
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: became difficult was because of wind, like that's what made
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: it so tough. But then you also have just really
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: difficult golf courses like US Opens, Miarfield, Village, API, things
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: of that nature. And so I did a lot of
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: research and found that splits in difficult scoring conditions are
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: more predictive and split some windy conditions. I think part
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: of that is just a data collection issue where it's
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: really hard to actually like categorize each round as, oh,
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: this was a windy one, this was not, because you know,
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: like what I did going back was I actually matched
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: up tea time with the with the like hour by
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: hour forecast or the hour by hour observed weather. But
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: even there, it's like, I don't know how the weather
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: whatever source I was using, I honestly don't even know
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: what it was. I don't know like how it's collecting
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: that and how it's categorizing from one hour to the next,
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: and so is it an average during that time? Is
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: it the peak wind that was observed in that time?
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: I do not know. And so I think basically the
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: point there is, no matter what source you're using, you're
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: going to get different observations of what the wind was like.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: And if you're not matching up tea times, you're gonna
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: get instances where the round as a whole was a
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: windy round. But this guy happened to play early and
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: played really well because the wind didn't show up yet,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: and that's why he looks really good at wind. So
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: it's just a really hard data collection thing, where whereas
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: like difficult scoring conditions, you can get very very specific
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: with the wave with the round as a hole, and
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: it's literally just observed score. So it definitely found more
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: single in the distance or in the difficult split. But
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: then to Jordan's question here, what I was talking about
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: on Pats Show is we typically think of wind as
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: being the most difficult when you're into the wind, because
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: it makes the whole longer. When you're into the wind,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: any shot that goes offline gets pushed further offline. When
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: you're downwind, any shot that's offline actually gets pushed further
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: towards the intended line. So typically into the wind is harder.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: But Data Golf even did a really cool blog post
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: on this where they showed like the hardest conditions for
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: each specific hole, and a lot of them the harder
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: conditions were some variation of either downwind or down in
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: a cross so on its forth And the reason for
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: this is because Shinnacock is a very unique golf course
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: and it is on the average significantly firmer and faster
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: than most courses. And so someone also mentioned in here
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: that they've been watering like twice a day. That's traditional
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: for shinnacock. I think I think I read that like
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: the for member play, they water every single day at
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: two o'clock because otherwise it just gets too firm and fast.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: And that's again because they are wide open, so they're
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: getting constant sunshine and constant wind all the time. The
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: course just bakes out if they don't do this. So
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: even though they're watering twice a day, don't think that
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: that means that the course is going to be really
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: soft and receptive. Even with all that water, it should
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: be pretty firm. And when you get downwind on these
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: small elevated greens with you know, I say small because
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: the landing areas are small, but even if the like
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: the actual area of the green is pretty large. But
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: what happens is it's just really hard to hold these greens.
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: And so a lot of the time play into the
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: wind is actually beneficial, particularly on around the green shots,
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: because you can get the ball to stop a lot
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: closer to where it lands, or it's downwind, you're going
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: to get a massive first top and you get these
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: like really almost impossible landing areas where if you land
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: it too short it's not going to bound forward because
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: you're landing into some kind of upslope. It's just going
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: to stay where it is and then roll back to
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: your feet. If you land it on the flat part
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: up top, it's going to take a huge bounce forward.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: And if you're down wind, it's not going to stop
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: anytime soon. So now you're over the green. And so
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: I made the point specific to Henley on Pat's show
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: that like, guys who don't have the height and the
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: spin are really going to struggle with that downwind. And
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: so that can be like, you know, a major factor,
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: and it's tough because you want the ability to flight
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: the ball down with low spin for those into the
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: wind shots. So this is really, I think a week
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: where you're going to need all of the shots. You
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: need to be able to do everything and not just
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: rely on one specific type of shot all the way
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: around the golf course.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: You know, we never do the picks and plays, but
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: this is a major week. Someone's gotta give the people
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: what they want. Could you do you have a five
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: person list you could rattle off that go with Henley
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: that that would be just at your top of the
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: top of the dome.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, so Henley does not fit this because
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: he only has the low ball, floight low spin. Certain
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: like the first guy who comes to mind. Essentially what
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: I want is a guy who can flight the ball
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: down and the guy who can really spin the crap
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: out of the ball. Chris goddr Up is the one
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: who comes to mind as like the ultimate guy who
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: fits that mold. We've seen him. It's interesting, his wind
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: splits aren't great, but we've seen some really really good
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: win performances from him, So he's been really valid on
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: the win, but like we know that he has what
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: it takes to dominate a golf course in those really
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: windy conditions. And then also like, you know, he's one
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: of those guys where his entire skill set became so
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: rapidly improved kind of around this time last season. It
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: was actually like the US Open was was the first
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: really good performance where it was like, Okay, this wasn't
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: just you know, a good performance against a really bad
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: field in easy conditions. This was that was kind of
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: the first time that you know, he really showed, Okay,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: this guy's got more than just a driver. He has
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: more of a complete game. And then he goes on
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: to win the Scottish Open, and that was in windy conditions.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: So got up comes to mind some other names. The
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: one who's giving me the most trouble is Corey Connors
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: because he does have all the shots. He has phenomenal
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: wind splits, he has phenomenal difficult condition splits, but he's
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: been awful the last two weeks, including in those splits,
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: Like we had windy conditions in both events, and we
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: had difficult scoring conditions and I think one of the
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: four rounds in Canada and in all four rounds at
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Mierfield Village. So like, I don't know what to do
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: with him because he's popping in everything that I look at.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: But it's also you know, an instance of like he
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: was popping for those exact same reasons the last two weeks,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: and he was disastrous for me, So maybe I don't
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: want to uh put myself in those crosshairs for a
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: third straight week. Another guy will sheen out here is
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Adam Scott. I think he has great splits all around,
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: and then he also has the ability to really kind
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: of generate the speed that I'm looking for in the
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: height that I'm looking for. But he can also kind
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: of tone that down and hit some really nice, you know,
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: low spin flighted shots. So the list is obviously longer
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: than that, but those are the names that like really
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: come to mind right away.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of things stood out there. I think,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: like you know, just from a couple of perspectives. One
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: is the Corey Connors thing obvious you've seen where a
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: guy can let people down and they move off of them,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: and maybe you just have to build accordingly based off
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: of that and use him how you would expect that
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: to work out, or maybe if that's the pocket that
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: you're going within, or different things like that, you can
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: definitely do it. But I think like the Adam Scott
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: one is great because he's another prime example. We've definitely
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: seen him play good in win conditions. We've definitely seen him.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: He always plays good at difficult courses. People just don't
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: call it good, like, oh it's twenty ninth or thirty
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: he does nothing. And I always go on about this,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: but I was gonna say, now you're speaking my language.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: You bring up Adam Scott because sixty six hundred, it's
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: all priced in, it's literally all baked in there already
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: at twenty eighth place could be phenomenal. And what if
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: it's one of those Sundays where he does grind up
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: to one of the t twelves or something like that,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: it's even better for you. So my point being, I'm
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: always fine with that. I like the got her up call.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I think that was interesting as well.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: The other thing that you mentioned, I know this was
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: last week you brought this up, but and I don't
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: even know what the splits say right now. I just
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: knew what the windy ones said last week is I feel, oh,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: like Maddy fits the grinder, the Euro in the wind
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: and all this stuff. It's like his wind splits were
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: actually not phenomenal. But we know he's won on difficult courses,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: and we know he's a thinker out on the course,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: and you saw his quotes for this week, I know,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and what he was saying around this course. He likes
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: that type of setup. He's won a US Open like
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: very difficult to do. So it's you don't people are
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: putting him into it, probably because of like Euro and wind,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: but it actually might be other factors totally of why
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: he's coming through it. Just one of the now best
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: players in the world. The way it's gone this season
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: and just how much he's worked on his game on
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: all facets. So I think that's another thing to think
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: about here. A lot of what may end up happening
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: will get relayed back to wind and weather and splits
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: and all of it and all these facts of like
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: wind splits. But it's like it's actually they're just the
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: best golfers, like the you know when they when we
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: do this all the time with other stuff too, So
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: it's like that's the other factor that you can mix
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: in as well.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: And why I think.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Mixing the waves instead of like trying to commit to
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: something like you need six good golfers here that are
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be able to play their way through no shit,
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: Sure luck I get it. But what I mean is
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: like outside of the waves, even like you're you need
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: the six that come through.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't try and force.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Yourself into something too much, especially if you only have
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: one lineup this week.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if Fitzpatrick, it's it's we're talking for like three
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: minutes here, three to five minutes on Fitzpatrick because he's
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: the perfect example of how you can see some different
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: results from wind splits and difficult condition splits. And then
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: we can also match it up with a quote of
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: his So this this for some people, this is going
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: to be like really boring. For others, this is going
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: to be really really cool and a fun discussion. I'm
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: certainly gonna enjoy talking about it. So let's jump in
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: for a minute to.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Ear this guy like I'm gonna love it though. Yeah,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: we can tell.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: So Fitzpatrick in wind is point zero four strokes worse
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: on average than his baseline, and he gains strokes in
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: one and a half fewer percentage points than his baseline. Now,
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: one of the reasons why we do have like this
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: uh kind of just recognition of him as being a
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: good win player is because he does boom. So I
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: defined boom as gaining three strokes on the field. He
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: does boom one point four percentage points more often, which
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: is actually a pretty high amount because you're you're not
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: gaining three strokes on the field very often, so to
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: have a one point four percentage point increase is meaningful.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: But he also has some really really bad win rounds
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: where he blows up, so losing three to the field
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: two point one percentage points more often. Where he gets
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: this reputation is because he's phenomenal in difficult conditions, point
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: three nine strokes per round better. He gains in about
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: five five percentage points more of his rounds than he
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: does in typical conditions. Here's the big number, eight point
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: three percentage point increase in his boom rate. That's insane
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: because his boom rate might be like five percent overall
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: and then thirteen percent in really difficult conditions. This is
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: a massive, massive increase. And the thing that I love
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: about this is when you hear Fitzpatrick talk about difficult conditions.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: He just had a quote this week where he was like,
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: the great thing about playing in difficult conditions is you
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: have to think your way around the golf course and
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: in his words, you have to do your homework about
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: the spots that are are that you're able to miss
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: in and actually get up and down. And like that
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: quote to me was just like bells ringing, Like, oh
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: my god, this is what Fitzpatrick is doing. This is
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: why he's so good in difficult conditions, because he's doing
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: a better job than everybody else of recognizing when I
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: get into trouble, where can I miss so that I
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: can get up and down? What mistakes can't I make?
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: Verse witch mistakes can I make? And you know this
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: is a guy who charts every single shot that he
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: hits in every single round, practice round and in competition,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: Like we know this is somebody who's not just doing
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: his homework, but is really really capable of doing that
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: homework at a high level. And then it very clearly
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: translates into this difficult scoring success And I love that
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: for number one, like his split is more reliable, but
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: it also helps us explain why why did I just said,
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: like how difficult scoring conditions are more reliable? They're difficult
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: scoring splits are more reliable than windy splits because while
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: windy splits have like a very real skill set, you
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: have to be able to shape the ball in different ways,
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: You have to be able to stop the ball quickly
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: and flight the ball into the wind with low spin.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: So from a skill set perspective, like I would almost
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: think that windy conditions are the more reliable and the
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: more sticky kind of data points. But now we have
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: this like really clear example of why the difficult scoring
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: splits are so predictive and so sticky. It's because it
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: requires so much more course management and thought. And I
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: think that's why Like for years, certainly I don't know
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: exactly about you, I think you're with me on this,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: but like I enjoy watching difficult conditions a lot more.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: I enjoy it more from a DFS perspective, but also
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: just like a pure watching experience. And I think this
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: helps explain why. It's because this is like as clear
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: of evidence as we can possibly get that difficult scoring
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: conditions make these guys think more and strategize more, and
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: it's not just about their physical talent, it's about just
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: the full test of golf both physically and mentally that's
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: really really fun and then also psychologically too. Right, Like
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: Hatton has had a really cool quote of when scoring
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: it's really difficult and it's brutal and it's borderline unfair,
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: like I'm already a total wreck mentally, this brings everyone
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: else down to my level. And that's why he thinks
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: he has an advantage in those difficult conditions psychologically, And
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: he too has been really good in wind in difficult
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: scoring conditions, and he also has like a crazy high
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: boom rate in those difficult scoring conditions. So it's cool
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: to see kind of all of that tie together in
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: a really clear, intuitive way.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this guy's work ethic is crazy. He just talked
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: about fits and nobody cares to work harder. He's got
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: the note pad out, been doing it forever. You remember
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: the the braces on back in the first series season
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: of Full Swing where he's at the table right now
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: and everything and going through and he's done that forever.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: So you gotta love that about guys like him. That's
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: why people like the the Aaron Rye victory right and
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: talked about that. It's like, you know when Xander's quote
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: on him was amazing, saying, you know this guy's and
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: I went out with my my guy Austin and when
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: you know his Caddy and we went out like nine
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: o'clock to see what's going on after the pudding Green,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: maybe get a workout in and think we'd be the
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: only one there. Nope, Aaron riis in there working. It's
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: like that's just a story that he could remember. So
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: it's like there's tons of stuff like that that goes around.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: I think the other thing is just in general, when
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: you talked about like the you know, the hard conditions
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: all that. I know others you'll have different opinions, but
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: when you're watching a birdie fest. It's it's tough. I mean,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: you don't really need to watch the drive. They're gonna
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: throw a dart. It's do they make the five footer
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: or not? Like everyone's it's cool, like I get it,
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: like for sometimes and people want to do that.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: It's even for dfs that's like I'll just see what happens.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: It's almost like a NASCAR for pgadfs, it's like, just
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: gotta see what happens at the end of the week,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: Like there's gonna be so many and there's five of
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: your six guys are getting an all four under seventy
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: you're sweating it on Sunday. So it's like, you know,
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: you have no idea until the very end what's going
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: to happen when you're watching. And for dfs like that
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: just makes the sweat equity, in my opinion, is so
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: much better across the board because what you get all
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: the same events of like you know, the ownership sweat,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: who does people had?
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Has everyone come in at? Is there a late WD?
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Then you get the cut sweat on Friday, Then you
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: get the Sunday stuff if you have a chance or
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Saturday is so meaningful to hopefully set you up for
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: a Sunday.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: All these different factors, but the drive matters. Where did
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: it land?
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Oh shit, okay, gotta see, man, that's gonna be a
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: crazy shot. The second shot Gannon was talking about today.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I heard him mentioned on one of the shows he did.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I think it was with Adam Kirk over at vinceerrek See.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: He talked to him, and that's who we partner with
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: this year. They were talking about you know, people were
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: landing at seven feet the whole and then boom rolling
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: away to twenty seven feet or something. It's like, okay,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: well now it's a whole new story, like phenomenal shot
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: did not end up phenomenally well after that, and now
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, is this a three butt? Like it's
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: twenty seven feet on tough greens, so that matters, and
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: if they're green side or short side or whatever, it
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: is like, oh shit, now we got to see how
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: this plays out and spins back and just every shot matters.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: And then as you get closer and closer, it's like
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: all the sweats across the board.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: So I enjoy it. I think it's better for dfs.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I love that getting a.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Six or six just means so much and that makes
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: your weekend that much more enjoyable if you can get
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: that through.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we can this week.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: But anything else you want to touch on before we
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: get to the chalk build of the week or about
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: halfway through half hour into the show.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the other thing I want to touch on, just
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: from like a kind of a macro perspective here is obviously, like,
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: regardless of what source you're using, a lot of people
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: are looking at data this week on wind splits, difficult
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: condition splits, things of the nature. And so one other
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: thing that I just want to point out is what
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I like to do is I want to find the
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: story that the data is telling me, and not just
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: what he's done in the wind or in difficult conditions,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: about why. And so an example I can give is
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Jacob Bridgman. He really solid wind splits in the sense
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: that his strokes gained in wind is a lot higher
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: than strokes he cain out of the wind. But what
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: we see is he has a massive boom rate in
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: the wind and he doesn't blow up any less frequently.
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: He's also totally neutral and difficult scoring conditions, and so
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: with him I can tell the story that Okay, he's
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: had a handful of really really good rounds in the wind,
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: and that is totally propping up his strokes gain. That
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: doesn't make him any less risky than usual. You know,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: he's a pretty high risk player. In fact, his blow
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: up rate in the wind or his blow up rate
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: and some of his difficult splits aren't great, and so like,
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: he might be even more risky than usual this week.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: But if you're playing him, you're playing for the ceiling.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: And other guys, you know, the reason why they have
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: good splits is because they don't necessarily boom, but they
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: just never, ever ever have a really bad round the wind.
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: And so like someone ironically, you know, we think of well,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: actually a better example is Daniel Berger. Like, Daniel Berger
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: has a lower boom rate in wind, but he has
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: one blow up round period in wind in a one
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: hundred and twenty six round sample. Like it's it's insane
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: how low it is. So yeah, it's just you know,
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: and that again, that means he hasn't had a round
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: where he's lost three strokes of the field, or hasn't
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: had two rounds where he's lost three strokes in the field.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: He might have a bunch where he's lost like two
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: and a half, I don't know, but so that's like,
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: that's why his wind splits look really good. It's not
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: because he has a higher ceiling and wind. It's just
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: because he has a really good floor in the wind.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: And so I like telling all these stories. If you
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: like data that tells these stories, a shameless plug here,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: all this stuffs in my disco and you can use
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: promo code leverage for ten percent off forever. And I
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: think this is kind of just a really fun week
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: to dive in because when like this is the ultimate
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: splits week, we will not get another week all season.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: We're looking at this kind of stuff is anywhere nearest
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: important as it is this week?
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: And if you guys aren't in there, definitely check it
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: out because I use it daily. I'm going there back
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: and forward, lurking a lot because it's Alex's domain. But
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: we chat through it a ton, and obviously it's a
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: lot of fun just watching him go through Alex Claude Blickel,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I call him.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: And getting everything done in there.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: But the crew is good, and then like the baseball
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: data is fire, and then now he's got it with
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: the golf stuff too, where you can just get some
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: other ideas from it. And I'm using it daily sometimes
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: even just like throwing in a single line up if
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing much or something, just trying to get
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: some thoughts and roll from there.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: So definitely check that out. Use the code leverage.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: If you guys haven't done so yet, any questions, you
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: can reach out to Alex on X I will know
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get to the stone two point zero so
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: we can start building the chalk build. But I said
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: it earlier. Our guy again, and he's been out at
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: a bunch of different events this year. He's at the
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: US Open this week. He's doing his show this afternoon
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: breaking it all down. He's got the full Boots Bullets up,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: which is little bullet points on every player.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: That he saw.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: And I will say this Alex, like, just you know,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: no spoiler, because people want to check out all the options.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: You can go right to Boots Bullets and see there
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: it's literally ten twenty thirty four. There's I'm forty to
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: fifty golfers already in their course and weather notes by
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: the holes, the final day report, all the stuff that
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: he was talking about. But one of the things he
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: said that I thought was really interesting and get your
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: take on this. He said, like, if your guy can
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: make a seven, which I know is a lot of
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: guys this week, but it's like, really like if it's
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: more common of a thought, it's probably really bad for
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: you this week because that seven could be a ten,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: and it could be multiple sevens and all of that,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and then they're in big trouble. So if you can build
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: a lineup where your guys or if you're betting out
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: right or something like that, like it's not likely someone
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: with a seven goes on to win, but anything can happen.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: So it's just thinking from it from that perspective saying
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: it was that difficult out there already in what we've seen.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: I don't you have anything you want to add on
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: that before we get to the chalk builds. But I
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: think that's just something to think about.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it gets back to the
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: point we're making about Fitzpatrick, right, Like this is a
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: golf course where you constantly have to be thinking about,
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: you know. So for example, like we're going to go
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: to TBC River Highlands soon and on most of those holes,
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: guys aren't thinking about the miss. They're just thinking about
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: what what shot can I hit to get myself a
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: birdy opportunity. And if I happen to miss, I'll be okay.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: I'll be in a spot where I can get up
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: and down, and I'll think about what happens if I miss.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: Once I actually miss, I don't need to think about
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: it prior to that. Here, you need to constantly be
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: thinking about where you're gonna miss, how you're gonna miss,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: and and you know which, which miss puts me in
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: a place where I'm battling for a par And if
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: I don't convert, I make bogie first. A different miss
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: is like I need to execute now to make sure
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: that I make no worse than bogie. And if I
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: don't execute, I might make a triple or a quad
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: am I total, my event might be over. And so yeah,
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: I definitely agree with him, and I think that, uh,
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: you know this, that's a spot where like so much
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: of the difficult condition signal is coming in exactly that
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: it's it's how do you how do you avoid the
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: holes that ruin everything? Because Bogey's not gonna hurt you
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: this week? You know there's not a single hole on
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: the golf course in this tournament where if you may
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: make a bogie, that's like really eating into your probability
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: of winning the golf tournament. If you make a double,
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: it hurts a lot more. If you make a triple,
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: it hurts if you make a quad. Like now you're
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: tanking your your win probability. So making sure you make
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: no worse than bogie as often as possible. Like, you know,
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: we we've heard that with Rory at the Masters, right,
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Jack Nicholas, yes, tells him no fucking doubles, And it's
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a lot of here. It's gonna be
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: very similar here, although here it might be no triples.
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: Maybe you can make one or two doubles and and
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: actually survive that if you were in a bad enough
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: spot and if if the field's getting absolutely killed on
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: that whole. But but yeah, it's just it's such a
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: fascinating kind of opportunity this week and uh to to
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: really see these guys tested mentally and physically in a
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: way that you just don't ordinarily see them.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, same quote, night night at the bars, you know,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: a second night going into the bar from a Friday
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: night when rough Saturday to remind me tonight, boys, no triples,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: that's the thing.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I'd say the same thing.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: No no triple drinks there, I will say, we'll get
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: to the six k range, you know, in a bit,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: just going through. But Alex and I both talked about
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: this yesterday because it is so loaded. I think people
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: trying to figure out all these random five k's just
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: gets a bit tricky. You already have so many options
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: in there. But funny enough, you mentioned the Masters. I
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: was gonna say this, it's very cliche, and I get it,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: but it is a note like you've talked about the
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: past at all, Like all the good golfers show up
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: at the you know, it's this is a cop for
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: the Masters, Like, no, the golfers that show up there
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: are just really good at golf. But one of the
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: bigger factors to me is the experience that you touched on,
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: and it's like that.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: You do have to be thinking every single hole.
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: And the best example of it to me, you gave
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: the roy one, but is when Tiger had the ultimate
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: comeback a few years back. Now obviously a little bit longer,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: but just to note it, when he came back that year,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: he was very fortunate that a lot of people that
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: hadn't been there yet or not enough of them very
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: often got to hold twelve and forgot that you just
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: need to go for.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: The middle of the green.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: And he watched all I mean, what we watched was
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: all those balls roll back, the Poulters, the Molinari's, the Fenales,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: I think it was Hoblin. I can't remember all of them,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: but it was just the noting of that facts like man,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: that experience was not there, and that's why it's so
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: important there. But that's why it's also so important to
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: have that mindset on courses like this, because, like you said,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of people are just sort of hitting that
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: next shot thinking they're taking it shot by shot. They're
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: you know, that's when I was talking about, like preparation
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: greater than planning. They're planning to hit the same shots
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: everybody else going to. They're going out and planning team holes.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: They're playing the exact same holes. They have their tea time,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: they're planning to play at the US Open.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Everyone is. That's there.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: But the preparation is not just hit the shot, adjust,
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: hit the shot, adjust. It's they're thinking ahead, like a
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: chess master or something, you know, having those moves and
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: being able to think ahead of if this, then that
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: that matters so much more. And that's what that's what
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: happens down the stretch. I think of what year was it.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: I think it was US open, Rom took out Louis.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Remember that year?
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Was that the US oh? ROM?
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: But I think so. I mean, I I like where
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: my mind's going through all this discussion is I can't
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: wait for round four showdown because Round four show down
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: is going to be awesome. We're like you, you might
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: be able to get like a stack of guys who
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: are ten strokes off the lead and if if they shoot,
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: you know, three four under something like that, and then
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: conditions get really difficult and now no one around the
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: lead is anywhere close to under par. It's like you
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: just you just annihilated the field with no one near
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: the lead. So yeah, I think it's gonna be really fun.
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: And you can we can see so much leadership turn
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: leaderboard turnover on the weekend. Man, I just can't wait
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: for this week. It's gonna be so much fun.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was thinking that I think it was Rom
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: and he stole it from Louie quote unquote, but remember
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: it was at I think Torrey Pines. The water is there,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: and it's like he's like, what the hell's he doing? Like, no,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: he's not gonna risk chipping it over and having it
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: land in the water. He's gonna chip it back here
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: backwards from the bunker and then make the bomb, which
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: was insane at the time.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: And we'll talk over rom for this week.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: But I just say that that to me, like that
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: is thinking man stuff of like I'm going to do
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: something a step ahead of you, and I'm already gonna
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: have that locked in. Most people would just not think
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: like that. I know, everyone's all they're all pros. They
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: know it all well, they learn it all over time.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: It's a true pros pro that's thinking ahead. And we
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: talked about fits and guys like that earlier, obviously all
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: these other players. I'm gonna go to the stone two
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: point zero here for this so we can build it out.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: If you guys want to check out ship at Nation
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  Speaker 2: got the pitcher rankings. For golf, it'll be the course
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  Speaker 2: you get right now too. And it's in beta mode.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: It's not always going to be for everybody, but just
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: noting it that. The Stone two point zero is something
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: we're still working on and we added this week where
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: now not only can you save your lineup so it's
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: a complete handbuilder. You can just build as many lineups
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: as you want, but you can download the CSV directly
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: right from the site, upload it to DraftKings old school
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: like we you know, some still do it that way,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: by the way, where you just download your CSE, copy
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: paste and move them over, versus the other sites that
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: do it where it just brings it right in for you.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: But we'll use this to go through it. What do
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: you want to.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: Start with here? From the chalk build? Do you want
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: to talk about it? I mean, to me, it's pretty straightforward.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: It's not Scotty like. I'll let's just be you. We
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: can get that conversation out of the way first. Is
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: there a chalk Scotty build?
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Yes? Is the chalk build this week? Scotty?
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: No, Like, I don't know what you think his ownership
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: is now, but I'm still thinking like twenty to thirty
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: because I have to be like ranging it here.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: But I don't care how good the six k ranges.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: I think it looks pretty clear cut that people are
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: gonna want to land on rom Fleetwood X Fitzpatrick. A
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: lot of those guys up the gut, so give me
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: your thoughts here. Man Ludwig as well too, by the way,
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: but other guys there also, what do you think?
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean personally like I would, I would say
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: there's a Scottie chalk build and there's a non Scottie
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: chalk build. But I do agree that I think we're
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: gonna see a lot more of the non Scottie builds.
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, just from like a pure percentage standpoint, because
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, We've got we've got Scotty a twenty
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: one percent in signal entry right now, I think it's
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: probably a little likely, a little more likely to go
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: up than down. But I don't feel super strongly about
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: either at the moment. But I'm with you. I think
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: Rom Xander, Tommy Obert Fitzpatrick, and then Cam slightly below
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: that are like, these are the guys I know that
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: the field is going to want to play pretty aggressively.
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: And then the thing is like, there are there are
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: so many six K guys and so many seven K
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: guys that aren't just one thousand dollars under priced, they're
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: fifteen hundred to twenty five hundred dollars under price. Like
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: if you told me that, Let's see, if you told
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: me that Seewu Kim was nine thousand dollars, I think
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: he'd still get a decent amount of ownership, even even
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: in this field, just because he's he's been so solid,
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: so consistent from a Strokes game perspective, you know, his
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: his floor is valuable no matter of the price. So
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: it's it's so weird that he's seventy two hundred and
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: yet there are so many like clearly mispriced guys that
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: it's not like I think he's gonna be forty percent owned,
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: like you know, Nikolai Hoygard was at the PGA Championship
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: when he was sixty five hundred. Thing is gonna be
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: around twenty twenty five something like that. So, uh yeah,
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: it's I think we will see that like collection of
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: we can even say Fitzpatrick to Shoffley and then maybe
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: extended up to cam and Rom and then we're gonna
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: see that like seven k pocket of Henley Reed, Clark, Burns,
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: Spawn can't lay Sewu, and then we will see a
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: six K pocket that's even more spread out that includes
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: you know, Kiddiama I think has a chance to really
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: get up there English Smallly. But again, there are just
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: so many guys here that even though these are the
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: chalk builds, it sound like you're running into massive chalko
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: at every single part of the lineup because there are
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: just so many options that like the quote unquote chalk
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: in the six K range is probably around ten percent
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: and not twenty to thirty.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And that was kind of what I
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: was thinking, Like, if you look at something like this,
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: you already have ninety six hundred. I mean, could you
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: get Scotty into this, yes, and it leaves you seven thousand,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: So like there's some version of this that makes it possible.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: But then also you can get like I'm just oh there,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: look at this. Yeah, you know what I mean. This
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: is just one example, guys, but.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Like Xander Fleetwood, Ludwig can't lay Kim pick your six
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: k guy.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: We just said Kitty am and I think he pops
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: in projections.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: But just to show and I'm not playing this one
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: myself anything, especially large field, but I get why it
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: projects so well. And obviously this is a rough draft,
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: just everybody knows. We obviously adjust our ownership and everything.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: There'll be more updates. There's two updates that come out today.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: One will come out just after the show here, so
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: I like using this on the show now and then
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: we update where you can see who you're fit. You
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: can select your favorites anytime, but you have your pivot
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: sleepers leverage. You can operate it by wave. You can
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: save your builds here. They'll go right into save lineups.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Use it all this way.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, do you want to adjust this
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: at all or is that kind of like.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: No, I think this is it. I think like obviously
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: you can swap guys out right, but regardless, this is
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: this is the chalk build, This is the construction that
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: we're going to see so much of. It's just kind
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: of hammering the guys who are underpriced because of Scotty's price,
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: where they don't want to move Scotti to sixteen hundred,
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: but then they need to make it so that other
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: guys are still affordable, and so they you know, instead
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: of moving him way up, they move other guys down right,
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: And so like we've seen Fitzpatrick and Oberg upper nine thousands,
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: low tens all year, they're one thousand dollars cheaper. So
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: what do people want to do? They want to play
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: the studs who are a thousand dollars cheaper than they've
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: been all season? What do they do with the seven
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: k range? Same idea? Right, Like, even there are guys
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: in this range, like you know, Hideki at seventy six,
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: who is one thousand dollars or more cheaper than he's
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: been in like every other tournament this year, and he's
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: not even to get ownership because there are other guys
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: who are even more cheaper than they they've been throughout
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: the season. So yeah, it's kind of just crazy how
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: this pricing looks. And the result is like, if you
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: build a lineup this week where you look at it
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: and you're not confident in all six guys and their
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: ability to play and play well for their price, you
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: probably just built a really, really really bad lineup because
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: pricing makes it extremely easy to build something that looks
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: on paper like it can't possibly fail.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say this.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: The kind of sticking point was zan, I guess the
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: core of the chalk build this version and we'll do
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: the Scotti one for people, But was like Xander Fleetwood
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Sea Wou, and I guess, like again, if you look
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: at any of the stat sites and people that out
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: there that are pushing it, obviously Sea Wu has had
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: a phenomenal season ball striking and all that, and like
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: people are comparing him like, how is he more than
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: he's more than half the price of Scotti Scheffler and
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: some of the ball striking stats have been up there
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: with them at times this season. You got who has
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: this crazy US Open history and it's all these top
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: fifteens for years to you know, years past now so
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: you've got that Fleetwood at you know, ninety seven hundred
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: just feels a little bit too cheap. The reason I
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: say that, though, is because all the variations of this
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: move it around slightly. Like you saw this was can't Lay,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: this was Ludwig, and then this could be Kiddiama.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: We saw it where you could go.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: And I moved it down to nor in now and
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: there was a version that had like Kiddiama and JJ
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: spawn with Fitzpatrick instead of Ludwig. And people want to
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: play Fitzpatrick and they like him. This is the version
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: where you get down to I'm just gonna use Nora
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: and he's a grinder in the euro and I'd be
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: curious his splits that I didn't go that deep on
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: the form or on the sheet that you put out
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: in your discord, but just to note it like he's
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: a guy that people just ought to assume that, oh
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: he's the ultimate grinder, Like he's got to be the
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: guy down at sixty four hundred. Meanwhile, you've got Berger
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: who you mentioned there, Connors who you mentioned earlier. You've
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: got Kegan Bradley, You've got Sung Jim, You've got J T.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Postin you've got Ryan Fox DJ whatever you want to
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: say about all these guy I get it. But my
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: point being you it's not like someone is just the
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: guy and how is Kitty Yama or Nora and like
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: the guarantee that it has to be them. That goes
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: back to what was mentioned earlier about six K ranges
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: freaking load. It can make a case in a story
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: for most of them. Well, that to me is also
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: how we get to the Scotty situation. But is this
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: kind of the builds Like I do see those top
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: three very consistent, and then from there it's kind of
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: like pick your poison on what you want to round
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: it out with, but at least you kind of know
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: there's a ten, nine to seven in everything for the
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: most part.
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, And this isn't like directly about the
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: truck build. But one of the thoughts that I'm having
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: as we kind of go through this is one of
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: the questions I always ask myself is like, what is
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: the path to the six for six percentage being really
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: really low? And I just think there are so many
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: value guys here that they can't possibly all fail and
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: the only way, the only path to a low six
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: for six percent this week is for way more of
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: the expensive chalk than we expect to miss the cut.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: So like what happens if Tommy, Oberg and Fitzpatrick all
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: miss or Ram misses the cut or Rory misses the cut?
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: Like that to me is the only real path, it
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: seems for a six for six percent. Even though this
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: is one of the hardest cuts to make on tour
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: because it's sixty and tis in a big field, I
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: still think like the only the only real path to
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: a truly low six for six is for a lot
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: of that that group the Fitzpatrick, Oberg, Tommy, Shoffley, Kam Yong, Ram,
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: Rory uh Let's throw got her up more, Kawa, Hatton, Henley, Reed, Burns,
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: Matsuyama can't lay Seewu like that group a lot more
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: of those guys than we expect need to miss because
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: so many And actually I would even say, like you
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: could probably start that at like Morikawa and above, because
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: we know with certainty that most lineups are gonna have
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: at least two of the guys at that point in
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: above unless they have Scotti simply because unless you don't
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: use anywhere close to the amount of salary. So unless
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: those guys are the ones missing cuts. It's gonna be
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: a pretty high six for six, and you're gonna need
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: a really high score this week to do damage.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna have slightly different numbers on this, of course,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: and this is also just our rough draft. But I
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: mean we've got sixty five percent and above, give or
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: take sixty four point eight on Brooks, and.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: You know that's some thoughts.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: And he's now a lot seemingly a lot healthier than
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: we expected the way his interviews have gone and what not.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: So we'll see.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: But just noting it, everybody here is, you know, looking
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: good to make the cut. But trust me, you know
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: sixty six percent is not anything like a guarantee. Of course,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: you've got the other side of that always when you
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: look at that coin. So one note here on the
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Scotty build is using some of the same stuff that
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: we talked about, and again spawn English, I might, I
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: might go to like exactly what we looked at because
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: I think people like Sam Burns and then we can
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: have Kidiyama back in there even but like it's it's
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: almost the same three fifteen, three eighteen, we were around
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: three seventeen, three twenty and these are just early projections
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: and stuff, just noting it. But is this kind of
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: what you're thinking for the Scotti did you have something
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: else in mind? There's definitely money to move around here.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: I'm just not sure what you're thinking becomes the more
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: common Scotty build, But this seemed pretty popular as a
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: way to get there with like three sevens, a couple sixes,
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: and then people will pick their poison here and think
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: they're getting different, but then be in your commonality of
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: like okay, but you have Scotty, can't lay si Wu
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: both commonly like everybody else. So it's like you didn't
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: really find that much different. You got a couple leverage
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: options in there, but you still got the same as
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: everybody else in the other spots. What else do you
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: see when it comes to the Scotty Scheffler Chalk build.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is what I see. I think, like the
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: other possibility is maybe people don't go to that upper
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: seven K range and they just try to stay a
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: little bit more balanced with it. But like it's very
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: easy to get into the upper seven KR range. I
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: mean honestly, like you could get to a Morikawa or
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: a hat and or a fits and just then leave
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: the seven K range and blast the six K range.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: So I think we'll see some of those variations as well,
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Like start, if you go Scotti fits, what are you
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: left with?
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll leave kidiometers for the sake of the
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: set up here sixty five so you can definitely still
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: do this how you nailed it, Like this becomes what
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: probably like McNeely.
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: I would probably I think Smally and English might be
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: me higher, but certainly I would throw Ryan Fox in
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: this build.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking here, if we got early.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: Fox, Norrin, maybe Keeking gets into this build, or Bud
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: Coley coming off the wind.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: I think you could see something like this to be honest,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: and then whether people leave the money or they choose
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: something different, this actually allows for like a Scotty Oberg
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: or Scottie Fits and having three hundred bucks to go elsewhere.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: So it looks like, you know, the Scotty build will
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: have two to four six K guys.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of what I would see too.
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Now this is like ten points light and I think,
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: again just early projections, et cetera. But that's why we're
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: using it, so it's not like ruining it for everybody.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: But I guess the idea is it still is coming
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: in like almost ten points light.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: If you do leave out.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: All of Sea, WU can't lay all you spawn and
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: burns is kind of like the secondary version of that.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: That's why we like this show. Bye.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: By the way, we appreciate everybody that's watching do a
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: favorit hit the thumbs up. If you're watching it live,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: you just press a little X on your mobile phone
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: and click the thumbs up there. But we love a
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: good situation during a major week where we can capitalize
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: on clicks and get videos out early. But I know
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: a ton of people that have reached out, and I
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: definitely want to say thank you for all the support,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: and we appreciate you guys that appreciate that we like
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: to get this out so that you can capitalize on
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: making some money in your tournaments with the most up
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: to date information. It's not quite all the way there.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: It's still only Wednesday morning at the rough draft, but
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: we I feel like Alex and I have a much
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: better idea doing this right now than it does. Like
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: coming in early PGA Championship I think was a anomaly.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: It was like we knew that shit on Thursday the
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: week before when pricing came out, we're like, Okay, this
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: is gonna go exactly like this this one here, we're
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: starting to get a much better idea. But it was
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: nicer with the WEA and this all the data and
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: this type of conversation to say, okay, I can see this,
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: I can see that, but.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: That's kind of all I see. After that, it'd be
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: like anything else.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: Now we can start talking about leveraging the chalk versions
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: of that build, I think, right, is that kind of
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: what you're thinking.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And so this is the other thing here is like, yes,
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: we have this seven K range that that's obviously going
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: to get a ton, and yes we have this like
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: you know, nine to ten K range whatever. I think
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be really hard this week to differentiate solely
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: based on roster construction, because the truth is there are
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: crazy under owned guys at every single price point, in
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: every single range. And so yeah, there are ranges that
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: are a little bit lower owned than others, like you know,
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: certainly as as it has been the case pretty much all here,
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: like the eight K range isn't getting much ownership. Well,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: part of the reason why the eight K range isn't
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: getting much ownership is because Henley at eight k is,
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick at eight nine is, and then you have Morikawa, Rose, JT.
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: Gott Are a Hoveland in between. That's it. So like, yeah,
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: the A Kate range isn't getting as much ownership, but
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: that's largely because there just aren't that many dots there
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: that you can actually choose from. So I think this
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: is a week where the way to get different is
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: actually to get different with guys who project really well,
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: Guys who have all the upside that we could possibly want,
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: Guys who fit this golf course better than people realize,
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: whether it's because of course fit like approach, play and
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: putting strengths, or really good splits like wind and difficult
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: condition splits, or simply because they just got overlooked for
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: some reason because there are other, maybe slightly more obvious
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: guys around them and just you know, hammer the guys
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: who are contrarian who don't deserve to be contrarian. And
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: I think that's gonna be the main way that I
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: pivot and this week instead of trying to find like
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: a really unique roster construction, Yeah, I.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: Do something like this.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: It's not again, there's no exact science to this. This
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: is more like you know, subjective thing, but using the tools.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: I just give an example here.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: Using this is like I sort of by projection, like
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: you said, obviously then there's ceiling built into it and
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: all that.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: But then I scrolled down. I'm just gonna go down
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: to say, Victor Hovlin.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: These guys there's like no one maybe read and got
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: her up, get a little bit of steam, but most
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: these guys are gonna get. You know, ninety percent of
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: the field is not playing these guys, but ten percent is.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: People are talking about them enough. They just don't all fit.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: The builds the same, the hattens, the hovelins. The more
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: cow is the Kepka injury.
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: JT, who usually people tell me JT plays the player's
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: difficult course, crushed the wind advantage that year in the
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: opposite side Southern Hill what was it Southern the PGA
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: Championship he won in the playoff against Willy z.
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: I think, what, maybe it's just because you said it,
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: but Southern Hills sounds right to me.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: That's what I was thinking. Yeah, that's that's what it was.
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: And where Meadow shank it at the end off the
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: tee on seventy.
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: Second, I can I can give you this answer. By
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: the way, JT has pretty good wind splits, not so
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: great difficult condition splits.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: Right, so interesting then, But I'm just saying, like you know,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: enough people are talking about.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: A Wyndham Clark.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: Is he back or isn't He looks like he is,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: but just noting it, like again, all this stuff that
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: we talked with Justin Rose. I mean, the guy's been
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: a big game hunter in these majors and stuff. He's
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: been fine. It's kind of what he looks like he
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: preps for. He's definitely a thinking man. We talk about
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: being able to do it around other types of courses.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: He's he's definitely in the mix.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack. Maybe he shows it a little showed a
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: little sign last week. Maybe it stems and comes across.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: My point is all these things are where people can't
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: fully commit.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm just gonna take a little bit of that.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a little bit of that and like
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: you said, and then I'll use like again, the projection's fine,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: the ceiling's fine. Look at all the I'm just again
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: not that I'm using this just as a key point.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: It's a piece of the puzzle, but like all the
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: made cuts are sixty to seventy percent, Like they're all
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: capable of making this cut for sure. Our course fit
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: rankings are decent on there. And that's just one example
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: or way to do it. And to your point earlier,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: the way to get the good you know, the low
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: six to six week is if a few of these
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: guys fail because they're all in those price points of
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: what you talked about where there's gonna be at least
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: two of these guys in almost every lineup for the
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: majority right that that are out.
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: Thereah, And so here's here's my question, since it seems
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: like you agree with that point of mind that like
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: the the easiest path to a low six for six
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: is for a lot of these like let's say nine
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: K to twelve K guys miss the cut. Is that
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: an argument in your mind for actually going to a
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: Scotti build this week and then just hammering the value
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: range or do you think that it's fine to just
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: play your favorite guy in the let's say ten nine
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: K range whatever and just hope that it's the other
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: ones who fail and those guys do well.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: I think both. I'll say it this way actually, because
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: this blends.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Another point that you brought up earlier that now I'll
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: circle back on was one what you just said is
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: like it's you definitely agree. You know, if you just
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: can play your guy here, there is other ways to
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: go and get different with it, especially if your guy
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: is who's not as popular. But if your guy is
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: a Xanderschofl and he's gonna be popular, there is ways
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: to get unique within that build. I would not suggest
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: starting with the most obvious Xander.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Fleetwood fits like yeah, and then you land in the
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: exact same spot as everyone else. But to your point earlier,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: that now.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: Makes more sense to circle back to here to cap
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: off what you just said is and this is usually
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: my thing is like I'm gonna focus on just different
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: roster construction. You just can't get that different in roster
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: construction this week, because when do we ever have a
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: three golfer nine K range or an eight K range
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: that's like skipping prices and stuff. You know, there's little
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: things like that, the seven K range is smaller than
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: it's ever been maybe all season, you know, or at
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: least tied for the lower like it's very low. So
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: there's only so many ways you can get different there.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: That's why I think it's important to say, like, Okay,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: if my guy off top is John Rahm, maybe he's twenty,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: maybe he's fifteen, maybe he's twenty five. It's gonna be
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: an interesting one to see when it comes out. But
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: he is much cheaper than Scottie, and I can still
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: get pretty unique build with him. I just have to
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: be thinking about this as I move down the board.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: But now I have seventy seven hundred per player, I
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: don't have to just type in and go with can't
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Lay and Sea Wou and whatever else. And by the way,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: just quick example, well Rom, Hatten, Mari Kawa can all
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: go together. Well now I'm I could still click can't
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: Lay and Sea Wou and be like everybody else, or
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: I could just keep down this path. And even if
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: Rom comes in high and Hatten and Kawa come in
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: in a middling position and they end up being like
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: thirteen each, just use it a twenty of thirteen to thirteen.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: Just making this up is on the fly. It's you
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: can still get three guys in there that do kind
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: of fit a little bit of a different build, but
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: also are sub ten. And now you aren't really stuck
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: with the same stuff up top. You always say this
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: I talk about it's not who you play, it's how
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: you play them. You say, it's not just who you play,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: it's who you don't play this lineup if we don't
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: put Chalk Sea Woo and can't lay in there, because
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: I know they would fit easily, But my point being,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: you would not have Scottie Rory X Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick Oberg
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: like I can stop there and it's enough. Let alone
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: the Burns Spawn can't lay seawou stuff. So you're not
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: really that much different of a construction that we looked
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: at earlier that just happened to have like fits and
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: multiple seven K guys. It's like you got to eight k, sure,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: but it's you started with Rom said I'm gonna play
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: my guy up top.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Then you went to the eight K range.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: You got two guys that people are definitely talking about,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: but they're not committed to right.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: They can only get to ten.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: To thirteen percent range type of thing, and then you
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: can still get super unique down low. But with great
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: plays you have seventy one hundred. There's nothing that says, oh,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: go find your five K dumpster dive there's nothing that
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: says you even need a six K guy right now.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: You could close it out with SEP and have.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Money left over for and don't use the chalk guys
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: and still have a pretty sick lineup. So I just
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: think it's so much more important to think about it
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: from that perspective this week. And I liked your take
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: on You're you're not really doing that much with different
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: roster construction kind of but not really. What you're doing
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: it with is recognizing that you're avoiding eight guys that
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: are going to be super popular, and not really on purpose.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: It's just this is how things shook out for you,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: and then you roll with those punches and you're ten
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: percent or twelve percent guys end up being the upside
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: for you, with the guy who thinks gonna win or
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: the one you love the most up top. So a
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: lot of words there, but I do think that's kind
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: of how I'm thinking about it as.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Well, perfectly perfect way to put it.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm I'm in agreement there. What do you
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: think is the is the next place we should go to?
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: I guess, like you know, I don't want to lead
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: into my lane because I've got a pretty clear one
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: this week, but and I'm interested to get your take
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: on it later.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: But the one thing like.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: Pat brought up yesterday that just to me, you know,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: I couldn't see it for anything can happen.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: It happened one. The one time I remember.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: It perfectly was the memorial when Billy Horshell won.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: So the year that Billy Horshell is the straight Ak.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Yes, it was like the straight Ak build. And this
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: is what like Pat mentioned, like could you do this yesterday?
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: And of course, like even if you just take the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: most popular version of it, it's like it kind of fits,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: it kind of doesn't because you still kind of you
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: need like one more I think, but it's like, okay,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: read caps it off and then this it projects well,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: it's you know, middling guys across the board, but you're
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: leaving a lot off the table. And again everybody has
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: it differently, but win equity wise, I'm not seeing as
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: much top twenty.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're still leaving something. It's the US Open.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Anything could happen, but to me, that's not the build
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: that I would be running towards in that position.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on the super balanced build here?
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think to your point about the win equity, Like,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: the number one thing that I would be doing here
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: is I would be I'd be saying, okay, but who
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: actually has win equity in this range? And obviously, like
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: you know, my in equity stuff is going to be
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: different than your win equity stuff is gonna be different
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: than everyone else's win equity stuff. But like to me,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: the guy in this range who might have the most
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: win equity is justin Rose because of just how vol
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: till he is and how good he is when he's
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: in contention. So you know, I've got I've got Rose
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: at two and a half percent. That's that's the best
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: in this range. So I would say, okay, number one,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: I'm a little bit concerned with you know, not not
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: necessarily duping with anybody, but just if someone else has
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: the same thought of I want to start my lineup
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: with fits, because that'll be really unique. I'm gonna have
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: three or four of the same guys as as that person.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: So I want somebody who's low owned Rose checks that box.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: And I want someone who closes the gap a little
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: bit in inequity to a lot of the other lineups
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: that start with either Scotty or Rory or Rom or
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: Shoffley or Tommy, so on and so forth, and Rose
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: kind of checks both those boxes. So I think it
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: is doable, but like there's a very specific way that
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: I would try to do this lineup.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: And my argument too is like a couple of things.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: One that you said is like, yeah, when someone's like, oh,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be super sharp and start with fits, well
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: in like the twenty five dollars million maker, that's not
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: gonna be I mean, it's gonna be duped, because every
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: version of that's gonna be very duped, just because now
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: I say it might be three to four time, but
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: it's like it's more than what you would want, and
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: people will say whatever they want about that, but my
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: point being, it's just it's not as sharp as you
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: think when you have a field that size and that large. Secondly,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: when you look at this breakdown, whatever you think is
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: the actual true win equity in there, if it actually
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: is fits and rows, and you're like, the other plays
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: are just good plays. They're grinders and they'll they'll get
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: through sure and whatever else. Even if you want to
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: leave Reid in there, we already showed earlier where you
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: can easily get Rob in there if that's your guy.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: Whoever your guy is up top, Like I literally don't
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: care who it is, Scotty Tougher and I'll talk more
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: on that in a second. But even with Rory, you're
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: in like the Fox area with like Norn and Fox
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: is a hundred bucks shy. You can find it one
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: hundred bucks more somewhere. Maybe go fits down to hatt
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: And and you end up different, but there's gonna be something there,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: and you gotta think that these guys are involved. What
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: you're almost hoping for is what you said earlier, is
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: like you're almost hoping that, Okay, Scotty wins. But the
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: Scotty lineup suck, right because then there's not as many,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: which I was gonna bring up where you go, OKAYI
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: with these two, well no, that's not appetizing.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: So that is what you would need. You'd almost need
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: a Scottie without all those guys. But we said it earlier,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: there's so many six K guys, you gotta think some
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: of those values are getting through it. If Scotty wins,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: then there's probably gonna be Scotty lineups that that got
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: you covered. And so I just I don't see enough
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: upside for it.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: I guess if you were thinking that in your I
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: don't know, your ten man satellite or something like your
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: high dollar smaller field thirty persons or less satellite, you
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: were thinking that nobody's gonna take this approach and they're
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: gonna go with all of them, are gonna have at
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: least xander or above, then you could make an argument
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: for it. But it's hard to know until the cards flip,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: because and you're still could be in trouble, but at
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: least at that point you'd be looking at it from
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: like a mad cut perspective and hoping that the win
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: equity is in four or sixes and five or sixes
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: and things like that.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: That's how I would look at it anyway. Anything else
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: you want to add on that.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: Front, Yeah, I just want to make one clarifying point here.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: If you make the decision like I want to start
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: my lineup with Fitzpatrick, the problem here is is kind
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: of specific to this week and this pricing in that
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: there just aren't that many ways that you can build
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: that lineup and not leave X amount of money on
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: the table. So like, for example, let's give it more extreme.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: Let's say you made the decision I want to start
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: my lineup with Morikawa and I don't want to leave
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: more than five hundred dollars on the table. There's literally
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: only one lineup that that works. It's more Cowa Rose, Thomas, Goddara, Povland, Henley.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: So if anyone else had the same thought as you,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: you're landing on the exact same lineup. As we go
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: up a little bit to I want to start my
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: lineup with Hatton, and then I want to start my
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: lineup with Fitzpatrick, you do have more combinations, but you're
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: still very, very limited. Whereas if you say I want
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: to start my lineup with Tommy Fleetwood, like you have
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: almost an infinite amount of combinations that you can make.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: It literally works that quickly where you can have that
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: many combinations of players and not leave more than five
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars on the table. Things of the nature. And
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: so some of you are going to say, well, okay,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: then I'll just leave a thousand dollars on the table
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: or something like that. Well, the problem there is, like
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: we have cold hard data that money that leaves more
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: than three hundred dollars, let alone more than five hundred
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: dollars on the table. Those lineups really don't perform well
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: at all, and so maybe you can think, well, I
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: can build a lineup that does well even if these
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: types of lineups don't do well. Personally, I like to
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: build it within the framework of lineups that are structured
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: in a successful way and then build really good lineups
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: within that structure instead of you know, putting myself digging
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: myself in a hole and then trying to build myself
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: out of that hole with with the lineup itself. So
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: that's why this lineup is just a little bit tough
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: to actually execute because there just aren't enough possible combinations
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: this week with this pricing to make it work.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think like looking at it from this perspective
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: is the way I'm thinking about it. Like, if you're
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: gonna do it, it's fine. You know, three eight K
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: guys could definitely be a way to leverage the chalk build.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: Neither of the chalk builds really, none of them that
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: we looked at were utilizing three eight K guys.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: You could pick your poison.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying now, it's you still have room to
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: come up over the top. You still have an average
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: of seventy one hundred. We saw that same average earlier,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: but this is now a Cam Young lineup. You go
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: up to Rom, you still have all the.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: Six K ranges loaded. Great, you don't.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: You could might only need one six K guy in
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: this lineup still, and you've got Rom got her up
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: like this is an example. You can stretch it as
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: far as Rory if you can get comfortable down in
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: that six K range. You know Alex's favorite guy, Keith
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: Mitchell that he talks about, you know from him yesterday
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: he says that your guy. He said, no, but if
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: you're making me pick a sixty two hundred dollars guy,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying that might be an option. But my
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: point being, you can still do stuff with this build
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: that's not forced into a back corner of saying, oh well,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: I have the you know, the literally one lineup that
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: you can build like this, or one lineup that leaves
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: you know, less than a thousand bucks on the table.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: So it's like, it's not really ideal. I think that's
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: where people are struggling this week though, because they once
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: they pick someone, it's like okay, Scotty and seven k
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: okay Xander where's yeat here? Xander and eight K almost
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: seventy nine eighty. It's like that that's a clear decision
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: for people, And because they don't.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: Love Bryson and cam Young and Brooks, it's.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: Not even when they go like, oh, I'm gonna start
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: with Tommy to be different, it's like eh, but then
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: I don't really.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Want Brooks and do I put Fits?
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: Well, Okay, now we're going down the path. Everybody else is, oh,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: look at that. You got seventy nine hundred left. Again,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: it's the same as the Xander start. Where you land,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: it's the same as the other starts. So that's where
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: it gets you.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: You know, tricky. I think another thing that's kind of
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: unique though, is like when people would look at the
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Scotty conversation and see seven K left. We looked at
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: this earlier, I think, and it was like, Scotty fit,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: let's do the seven K guy, Let's let's go down
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: to Scotty Sea Wou seven K right, Scotty and Sea
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: Wu and seven K I apologize it was Scotty and Fits.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna pull it back up. That landed you
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: at about sixty six hundred. So Scotti and Fits or
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: Rory and Rahm.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right, and you can still do the same thing
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: down below. But I mean that's like a quick decision
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: process of like a two v two.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: FLIPERU or sw switcheroo, whatever you want to say. Like
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: it's one of those ones where you look at it and.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: You're like, man, that's pretty tricky because you know, do
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: you want Scotty and.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Fits right now or do you want Rory and Rahm?
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: And I think Rory and Ram when everything shakes out,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: I think they'll be lower owned than Scotty and Fits.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: I think so too, which is interesting because I think
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: we're finally at a point now where there are people
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: who don't just think that like Rory is a better
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: play per dollar than Scotty, but there are now people
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: who would say, I think Rory has a better chance
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: of winning than Scotty because we've you know, we've seen
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: it from him this year in a major in including
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a it's an interesting decision. Do you
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: want to talk at all about course fit before we
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: get into some betting stuff and leverage lanes?
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly good with that, go for it. Cool.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: So this is this is an awesome golf course, And
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: this is also just one of those conversations that I
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: can have a lot of fun talking about. So I'll
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: try to keep it short since we're we're already like
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: an hour and fifteen in. But the the really cool
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: thing about US Opens is even though we get so
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: much any different courses, we typically see a lot of
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: similarities in the way these courses test players. And they're
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: basically like three skills that always come to the forefront
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: in US Opens, or at least almost always come to
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: the forefront of US Opens. I ran the model, the
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: course of model for every event since twenty eighteen, so
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: that I conclude the Shinnecock year. Every single year, the
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: predictive value of approach, play and putting is higher than
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: usual in the US Open. Like that's just a try
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: and true. Every single year those two skills are more
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: predicted than usual in US Opens. We also almost always
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: see a boost in the predictive value of driving and
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: both distance and accuracy. But Pat was right on the
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: money from go this week when he said that he
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: thinks Shinnacock reminds him more of an Open Championship course
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: than a US Open course, because in twenty eighteen we
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: saw almost no distance signal, and we saw only about
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: an average amount of accuracy signal. This is a put
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: the ball in play, a lot of you know, less
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: than driver type decisions off teas. Maybe we'll see more
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: drivers this year since it's wider, I think a lot
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: of the holes are going to play similarly, and because
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: there's going to be more wind and a lot of crosswind,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: it's going to end up where like, yeah, it's it's
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: actually wider, but effectively it's like the exact same width
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: because now we have higher winds to deal with. So
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: I think we'll see a lot of the same decisions
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: being made off the tee and it just becomes a
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: second shot golf course. And that second shot is about
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: obviously number one, hitting as many greens as you possibly can,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: but then also the Fitzpatrick way of thinking, making sure
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: that you're missing in the right spot so that you
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: can get up and down. We have seen a massive
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: amount of volatility in the around the green signal in
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: US opens. Some events have a lot of it, some
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: have very little. Some are neutral. Shinnacock and Pinehurst have
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: both been pretty much neutral, and I put them together
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: because they have the same like upside down saucer shape
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: greens where you get balls that when they miss the greens,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: they're repelled well away. So you get very similar short
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: game shots. But more importantly, like the main difficulty of
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: these short game shots is not or the main skill
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: here is not how good are you with your short game?
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: It's how well did you position yourself with this miss
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: so that you actually have a chance to get up
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: and down. And then finally, just an extra note on
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: why I think putting is so predictive, why I think
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: it's going to be predictive here. But then in all
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: us opens you get a live instances and you'll see
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 3: this a ton this week where like the pin is
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: in a really difficult spot, you have a short game
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: shot around the green. Are you capable of hitting it
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: to two feet? Yes? But if you try to hit
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: it to two feet and you're a few feet off,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: you're rolling down a slope. You're being repelled back to
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: your feet or into another bunker. You don't want that.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: So what do you do? You purposely hit the ball
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: eight feet from the pin, ten feet from the pin,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: and you leave yourself tester after tester, guys just get
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: so many putts from the really predictive range here. So
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: I think it's actually like a really kind of straightforward
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: course fit this week, where it's probably not gonna be
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: a ton of driving, it's gonna be a lot of approach,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: a lot of putting, and then around the green is
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: going to be more about your course management and where
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: you leave yourself than anything else.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: I love that breakdown, and it does coincide too. Like
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: I said, Gannon's out there. He was talking about it
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: this morning. I was listening and saying about the guys
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: that are just walking around with you know, wedges, putters
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: around the green play.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: Like they're not even it's not worried.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: But the other stuff they know what they're gonna have
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: to do, and like you said, whether it works for
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: them against them. The weather they're up against not a
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: lot that they can control from the environment standpoint, But
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: what they can control is when this stuff goes bad,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be left with this.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: I want to be ready for that. And it was
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: the big names.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna name them all there on
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: the site under boots bullets, but he talked about like
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: guys like Sea Wu, Sam Burns, Victor.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: Hoblind, funny enough, Hoblin's another guy. He's eighty one hundred
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: I thought, you know, all this stuff about him last
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: week coming in and what finishes third totally from him
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: saying I had to play through some stuff there and
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: weather and things like that too.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: And then you think about the open.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: Conversation, like what's the major that he showed up at
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: where you know it was basically like shaved greens and
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: all this around the green play. That's like when that's
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: less for him to worry about, the better and he's
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: under the average price, He's eighty one hundred bucks this week.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: So again it's it's just thinking about it from that perspective,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: but more experience, more thinking, more of that type of stuff.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be fun no matter what to watch. But
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: I think that's kind of the key component. And again
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: it's anything can happen. If Coavin ends up having a
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: great week, awesome, But I'm saying, like, these are the
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: types of things where it's like you're betting on him.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: I used it yesterday. It's happened before a US opened.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: It was the twenty fifteen. I think Chambers Bay I
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: talked about like the Xander Shaffle coming out party. I
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: believe he was a stone minimum at six k at
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: that event. There was somebody else with him too that
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: was super cheap that the and the Milli Maker winning
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: lineup had and it was like those two the someone
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: had like eighteen percent about them and said, I'm gonna
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: take my shot on these guys. If you want to
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: play he Ben James after last week, it's super or mao,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: whoever your guy is that you think, go for it.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, don't be surprised or shocked if that's
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: not what it is on Sunday here when you got
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: to have a clean four days to get top, maybe
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: even an over power score. So we'll have to wait
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: and see.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the point that I want to make here is
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: kind of an extension of something I said earlier. But
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: it's like, there are so many really really good players
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: with genuine upside in the six K range, in the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: low seven K range, that when you're thinking about pivots
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: this week, what it means to find a successful pivot
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: is different than most weeks because sometimes, like I was
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: actually thinking about this in relation to Cam Smith, but
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: we can also talk about Jackson Coyvin in the same
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: way here as Like, ordinarily, if I see a guy
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: at sixty three or sixty nine hundred and I'm thinking
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: about pivoting to him, I have the potential runout of
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: other guys in this range fail and my guy gets
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: twentieth or thirtieth, and that's like a really successful outcome
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: this week. There are so many in this range. Certainly
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: there are going to be somewhat popular guys in this
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: range who do fail, but there are also going to
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: be plenty who do really really well, And thirtieth is
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: probably not good enough for all of these pivots. So
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: when you're thinking about a pivot down here, I think
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: you want to ask the question, like, what does success
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: for this guy look like? Is it, oh, he's actually
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: in contention going into the weekend, or is it wow,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: I feel like I got kind of lucky that he
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: made the cut and then finished thirtieth, because that ladder
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: is not good enough as a pivot. You deemed guys
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: down here who have like genuinely good probability to success
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: kind of all around.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: Great call out and position placement points typically matter most
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: at the US Open because you're not getting the all
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: four hunder seventy. You're not getting a lot of streaks,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: you're not getting a lot of eagles, You're not getting
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: any of that stuff really for the most part. So
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: all of that has to matter and you And also
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: then when you combine it with the six k range
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: being loaded, like has been talked about this entire show,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: that's where it's like people like, well, long as my
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: guy makes the cut. No, No, if you're guy makes
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: the cut and finish his seventieth or whatever it is,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: it's like, that's not good enough at all. It's like
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: a six to sixth, sure, but that could be a
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: sixty sixth. It doesn't even make money this week, just
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: depending on what the rest of your lineup does too.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: Maybe it is.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: If if you got the one, two, three, four, five
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: and then the seventieth guy, maybe that still shows up
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: the board a little bit, but chances are high somebody
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: has something similar or better than you in that front.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the betting breakdown. You gotta
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: I stole yours.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: Last night.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: I was on the King of the Draft with Spencer
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: and I told him about your discord. I pumped it
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: out there, I said, my guy, Alex the data master
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: out there bringing I I really like the funny enough
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: my man, justin shut up to you, I would drop
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: in the suit.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: Love that pick.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: He supports all the time, says all this course fit
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: is screaming a decky, and no one seems to be
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: talking about.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: Well, we talked about he's one.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: Hundred and ten to one three places each way, and
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: I shut it that on the show last night. I
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: bet it for sure. I thought that was really intriguing.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: I have a backup one, but I'll let you go
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: if you've got anything else.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I appreciate it, and I will let you have
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: that one because I do love that one in one
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: hundred percent, like the cour fit is awesome, right like
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: he hasn't played a US Open in years, in years
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: where his weakness to the field for reference here every
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: single like elite player until him either gains with distance
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: or accuracy off the tea. Actually there is one other exception,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: I'll mention him in a second, but Hideki loses point
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: one to three strokes to this field with his distance
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: and point zero seven with his accuracy like everyone else
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: who's anywhere near as good as he is with his
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: approach and around the green play and He's actually been
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: a good putter this year as well, is miles better
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 3: than he has off the tee, So it's just like
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: a great equalizer this course for him compared to the
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: other elite players. This number is kind of insane for him.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: He was just in contention at Aeronomy. He had a
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: really really bad stretch after a solid start on Sunday
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: that kind of took him out of contention. And so
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: like his his final finishing position in Ironomic doesn't look
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: anywhere near as good as what he actually did that
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: week and how close he was to being in contention.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 3: But I love everything about him this week, and then
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: I will go to Justin Rose for my outright very
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: similar idea. He's the other elite player who doesn't gain
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: in either distance or accuracy off the tee. He's he's
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: been a lot better though this year with his driver,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: but man like, if you're looking for approach plus putting, yeah,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: Rose has had now two consecutive weeks in a row
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: where his putter wasn't there. But he's still an elite putter.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: We know how incredible, how incredibly volatile he is. He
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: has the highest event to event volatility in the entire field,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: and when he gets into contention, his contention performance score
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: is the best in the field behind Aaron Raye and
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: Billy Horschel. So you know, contention performance score again, it's
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: not a measure of how good you are getting yourself
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: into contention. It's how well you play when you're in contention.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: And so those other two guys, particularly horseal we don't
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: see him in contention very often anymore. But Rose has
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: been in contention quite a bit and he just continues
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 3: to play phenomenally well. And I'll actually say, like with Rose,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: one of the really encouraging things is probably like a
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: year and a half ago at this point, maybe even
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: just more like a little bit more than a year ago.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: I remember first noticing this at bay Hill. He was
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: at that time like someone who was really inconsistent. He
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: was almost in the Billy Horsell tier right now. Of like,
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: the more likely outcome is that he plays poorly, But
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: if he happens to play well, I should play him
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: in Round four showdown, because when he plays well, he
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: continues to play well. So he was already like in
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: that category last year, and since that point he's contended
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: more and more. His play has been more consistently good.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: He's just gotten better and better, and still when he
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 3: plays well, he still manages to play above expectations in
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: those final rounds when he's in con tension. So I
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: really like the rose outright as well at sixty six
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: with that same each way, all.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: Right, I got the last one, and it's this is
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: a real best ball thing to do, and I'm gonna
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: admit it, and shame, no shame at all that I'm
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: definitely clipping this if it somehow hits, but if it doesn't,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: no one will ever hear about it again.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: That's the nice thing. But I had this premonition here
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: that we are going to.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: Get a Sergio Masters esque style win from a one
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 4: Ricky Fowler three hundred to one, three hundred to one.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know why, and I just I have this
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: feeling about Rickey Fowler.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: He's on DraftKings. I think he's like sixty five or
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: sixty six hundred.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe what is he actually now I gotta find it.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: Sixty seven hundred on DraftKings.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: But anyway, three hundred to one, with three places on
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: bout three six five, it's down to two seventy five.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: Now. I got it this morning I gotta bring it
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: on here.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: It's the feeling of like when Sergio finally got his
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: Master's win and the Major.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: It's like, that's what I'm feeling for Ricky Fowler.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: It was a good few events before the last couple
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: misscuts and ironomyck. He didn't do well there, but just
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: think that this could set up well, he's got that
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: AMT time.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe he's a better first round leader. Bet if you
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: can get that.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: I added that at one hundred to one, but I'm
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: not a big better, but I got the Ricky Fowler
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: thought this week. We've seen some crazy Major winners these days.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: It would not surprise me experience win all these things.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: Whether they show up in the splits, I'm just rolling
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: with it. But I like the first round leader more.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: But I'm going with them for the dub on a
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: betting card as well.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: Here, if he's three hundred, what is Billy Horssechell, let
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: me find that because he did play. He did play
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: well last week.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: You know I'm betting that now.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: Oh God, here we go. Can you imagine if we
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: hit a five hundred to one Billy Horschel outright.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing like any of these for less than
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: ten or twenty thousand, though, like the Valor one, I'm
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: saving to show it in case it hits, but if
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: it doesn't, I'm never showing it but telling everyone.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm obviously it's part of the bit, but it's like, yeah,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: that one is.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: If you're doing something like this, and I rarely do it,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, if you are doing it, you should
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: do it to win. Like we talk about all the time,
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: do you have to win actual money? Don't just throw
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: your five bucks on it, because that's like again each
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: bank rolled their own. I met like the idea of
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: don't just be like I'll take ill just cause he
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: mentioned it, because then you're gonna be pissed if it
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: does hit. And it's like a dollar into five hundred bucks,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: it's like you want it to pay off, so ten bucks.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: And here's the thing, like I actually think that the
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 3: horse'll bet is a really good one, so I've got
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: him at point four percent. I mentioned the fact that
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: the uh, you know, the contentental performance score for him
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: is phenomenal, which is contributing to the point four percent,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: by the way, but also really good wind splits and
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: check this out. His boom rate in both wind and
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: difficult conditions are both really good. Two point three percent
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: up in boom rate, two point seven percentage points up
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: in boom rate for the difficult scoring conditions. So and again,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: like when we're talking about percentage point increases, remember Horsell's
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 3: not gaining three strokes on the field very often at
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: this point in his career, right, so he might be
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: at like one percent overall and then three percent in
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: wind conditions and four percent in difficult conditions or something
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: crazy like that. So I actually think this is a really,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: really really strong bet from an expected value perspective, even
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: though he's obviously not likely to even sniff contention.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, people misconstrue that so often, so just to you know,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: elaborate on it is that's all. So you literally just
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: said why you would bet that guy and why he's
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: a great value, And I guess not everyone sees it
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: the same way, But my point being, he's he's good
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: if he gets into contention, we want him there. The
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: only way he gets into contention is if he gets
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: through that type of stuff that he's also good in.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: So if he has the boom week in the wind,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: which he's had capability of showing that over these splits
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: that would put him in contention where he is good,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: so that value would be there. And by the way,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: you don't have to go that deep. I think you
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: can get like eight places at two fifty or like
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: five places at three fifty.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: So it's like, I get it. But I'm just.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: Knowing, not that I'm talking more to my mix. My
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: point earlier, I like to how go collect put it?
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: You should just commit and the math to Alex's work
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: in the back end it states on why you go
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: with the three places. But I'm just noting what I'm
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: telling people. What I'm trying to say is a lot
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: of people are scared to put money on it, right,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: They'll put a dollar and just be like all it hits,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: it hits. My takeaway would be, if you're going to
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: do this, if you're gonna be scared of anything, don't
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: be scared of the amount of money that you're putting.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: You could be scared on the places, not the way
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: to do it by the math, but just noting it
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: that that I would rather it be that way. I
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: would try and win real money if he takes this
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: thing down, and I would get enough down on him.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's that's fair. I think the I mean,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: I agree with all that, and I know you're not
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: advocating for that one. I think it's just worth it's
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 3: worth pointing out, like the reason why I think that
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 3: that's bad is not just like a pure well, the
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: expected value is higher this way because that that like,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: that's not you know, the real reasoning, that's just the symptoms.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: The reasoning is because the reason why the horse'll bet
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: is good in the first place is number one, because
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: of how good he is when he's in contention. So
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: like if you're betting a guy not thinking he's going
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: to be in contention, but thinking that if he gets there,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: he has a good chance of closing it out, Like
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 3: why are you leaving in the you know the route
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: that he gets there and then struggles on Sunday and
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: finishes seventh when he could have won. So that's the
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 3: one point, and then the other is just like we're
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: we're leaning into his volatility in general and the fact
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: that he's boomed in similar conditions. All of this is
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: a pure upside case. So I want the highest payout
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 3: possible for the actual win, and you know, and I
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: will take that with you know, the three positions, three
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: placements instead of eight.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I'm looking at it, like, you know,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: just for some people, I know it's different, but for me,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: I'm just making sure I got it here now so
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: that it's you know, in on that with you, I
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: saw just got sent out too.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: So one and done anything quick on that.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: I mean to me, our lanes are more important because
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: we're here for dfs, and also like one and done
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: is so tricky with where people are at right now
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: and segments and all of that. Do you know, like
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: off the top, who's going to be the most popular
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: at least I'm sure you probably have that.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it'll be Rom just cause like it's
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 3: it's none. It doesn't make him a bad play at all.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: We're at a point in the year where you really
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: need to pay attention to how many guys do I
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: actually have left that can you know, actually be good
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: plays in these signature events, like do I have enough
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: elite players remaining? And if you don't, one of the
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: ways that you can give yourself, you know, those those
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: extra one or two spots is to use live guys
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: in the major championships. So Rom Bryson whomever hatton. I
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: think it is a decent play as well. Like that is,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: that's a really viable strategy. So make sure you know
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: where you're at. And then the other thing is we're
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: at a point in the season now I'm looking at
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: the PME Open. Scottie Scheffler is only available for ten
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: percent of people. He does not have a quality win
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: this season. If you can get a quality win from
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: Scotty Scheffler when ninety five percent of the field is
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: not going to have it, because even if half of
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: the people who have him available use him this week,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: that's still ninety five percent don't have the Scotty win.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: Like that's a major major advantage. So Mileen, if you
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 3: do not have Scotty is probably Scotty, but if you
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: need that extra spot, maybe you want to use him
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: in one of the other events. Like I think another
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: thing you need to look for is does your league
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: use the entire FedEx Cup playoffs or does it stop
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: after one round of the playoffs or two rounds? So
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: these are all the things you need to be thinking about.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: For us, let's see who do we have available?
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what we got to see.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: We've taken Scotty, we have Rory Rohm, Oberg, Bryson, Seawou Brooks,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: Burns Hatton. I don't have a strong take here. We
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: are not doing well. I don't think we're doing well
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: enough to use Ram, so I would probably advocate for
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 3: like a a more contrarian Bryson or.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I think Bryson's a good one somebody.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: I think somebody else brought it up earlier, but I
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: was gonna say to Bryson or hatt And I actually like,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else you're you know, I'm just
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: not saving him.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping it comes together.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: I know it's not what people would say is the
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: best course fit for him, but at the end of
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: the day, it's still Bryson. He works on a ton
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: out of their stuff. He's always got something else going on.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: You're probably not gonna have much exposure to him in
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: many other ways. I think it's a great spot. And
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: by the way, at the start of the season, you
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: would have said, like Bryce at the US opened, sure,
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: and now like nobody wants them there realistically, so some
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: will play him because of that. But I think he's
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: still the way to go for for my opinion at least.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 3: What do you think of Patrick Reid? Because his his
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: win splits and difficult splits are pretty phenomenal. So I
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: think he's also a very good play.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's another good call.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know how popular I heard he's I never
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: believed this stuff because you know, speaking of a betting
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: and I'm still trying to get this stupid Billy Horse'll
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: bet in for whatever, and it's saying like it has
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: to check with a trader. It's like for what, it's
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: like five hundred one Billy horssechell like Anyway.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: I think I think bet three six five is wondering,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: why are we suddenly getting hammered with Billy horsechell out.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're all hitting it.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's why it's definitely not because I'm a good
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: better I can tell you that much, but just noting it.
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: I heard he's most tipped, like people are saying he's
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: like the most tipped golfer on the betting side of
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: things that they post out.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: So I was just very shocked by that.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 3: I don't think he'll I don't think he could possibly
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 3: be that popular in one and done because he's like,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: for one thing, He's just so far down the board
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 3: you have to like scroll for a while to get
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: to him, so I don't think he'd be popular. He's
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 3: probably my top choice for us. If I had Scottie remaining,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: I'd be taking Scotty.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: Man. These guys denied me. The hell? What is going
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: on here?
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: Let me just see anyway?
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: I have my lane ready, and you were talking about
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: it there, So I think if you want to go Read,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: we can go Read.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: If not, we can go Bryson. I'm fine with either.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: I think both are good spots to go this week.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: I think I actually think they'll both be somewhere in
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: that secondary version. But that's okay at this event anyway.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: So it's like that to me, is is just fine.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: But you know, what did you decide on?
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: I think Reads the way to go because I think
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: there's a there's a chance that Bryson is in much
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 3: better form a month from now when it gets to
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: the Open Championship and we'll want to play him there instead.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: Good with that, Okay, I'm gonna start with my lane.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: It's I'm a little disappointed now because you mentioned one
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: thing that now I want to get your take on it.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: Because I'm like sort of thrown off a little bit,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: but mine is clean and clear. This week, I'm gonna
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: go with Rory McElroy and start with him. I think
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: you said a line like people are now starting to
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: think that not only is he a better play for
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: the Savings but this but again, like what builds did
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: we look at that landed there?
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: I still think because of the six k range, you
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: get Scotty involved. We did see was it the most
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: recent one that they played at or whatever where it
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: was like we didn't think Scotty was gonna be a
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: popular and ended up being Rory that got left no
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: man's land.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: I'm waiting to see how this plays out, but I
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: feel very confident and comfortable in playing Rory. At the
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: start of the season we said, you know, all these
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: majors set up well for him. He goes and gets
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: the job done at the Masters for the second year
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: in a row, and now I think this week is
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: just fine for him. I like the spot and twelve
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: to two is kind of that perfect sweet spot you
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: do get you can get. I should say a little
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: bit of the different roster constructions, even though not much,
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: which you eloquently put earlier. It's like, but I can
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: still land wherever I want. I'm not forced into the
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: same builds as everybody else, and I have a lot
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: of good Rory builds that I like quite a bit,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: and they're not popular by any means with what's in
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: the remainder of the lineup.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: So I'm going with Roy McElroy to get the job
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: done here. I think he's gonna be solid at twelve two.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: I like it. I'm gonna I'm gonna have something similar
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 3: where I kind of like the goal is I really
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 3: want to avoid the really popular guy, So like Oberg, Fitzpatrick,
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 3: Tommy I think are the main three that I'm like
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 3: purposely trying to avoid. And then if I if I
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: can avoid Sea Wu and can't lane away where I'm
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 3: not like really sacrificing a ton of projection, I would
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 3: also like to do that. So what that lands me
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 3: on is a bunch of eight K guys. So that's
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: gonna be my leverage lane. Now, as we talked about, like,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: this is a different type of I want to hammer
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: the AK range than what I have said in the past,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 3: because what I've often said in the past is like
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 3: when I'm hammering the eight K range, I'm building an
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: extremely balanced lineup. That's not the case this week. I
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: don't like that thought, but you mentioned it earlier, like
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: that one way you can do this is just play
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 3: two or three of them and then go to the
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 3: really good plays around that. So like, you know, maybe
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 3: that's a maybe that's uh, you know, Rose got her
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: up and then up to Rory, and I'm borrowing yours
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: as well. Maybe it means that I'm going down to
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 3: some of my favorite plays in the six K range
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 3: as a result. So there are lots of different ways
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: to do this, But in particular, I think Rose Morikawa
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: Hatton and then even down a little bit, like I think, uh, well,
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 3: I'll just I'll leave it there like Rose Mori Kawahttan
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: that that trio seems to me like it's gonna be
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 3: really under owned and uh and I want at least
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: two of those guys.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I won't bring it on screen right now, just
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: so we're looking at it quickly, but I just want
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 2: to see, like the Rory with a couple eight.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna use two eight K guys.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: You still have over seven thousand and I was like, yes,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: my point, not saying exactly where'm landing, but just to
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: say it, like, that's the idea of that is still
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: gonna be slightly differ. You can do Rory in three
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: eight k guys and still get it in there. So
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: I think anyway, that's that's what I'm looking at as
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: just a way to get unique and different, and then
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: you can avoid that pocket of like everyone trying to
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: figure out how do I play Xander Fleetwood, Ludwig.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: Ram or go up to Scotti.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: It's like you're you're in between all of that, and
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: then you could skip fits even if you want to
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: do that, you end up still getting a pretty nice lineup.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: You don't have to land on.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: Se Wou or can't lay or Spawn or any of
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: those guys if you don't want to, but you also
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: still could. And then if you can get comfortable in
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: the six case, having like two six's and two eights,
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: things like that, just off the top of my head,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: can get you some unique builds that way as well.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this is gonna be a good one.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: I'm very excited. Love the US open, let the people
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: know everything else you've got going on. Where they can
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: find you.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: Of course your discord be in the number one spot
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: that everybody should get into.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: But what else do you got going on this week? Yeah?
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: At alex plicka one on Twitter as always find the
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: discord link through there. It does seem like people are
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 3: having some trouble realizing, like when you click that link,
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 3: you do have to scroll to find the package options.
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: But yeah, use promo code leverage for ten percent off forever,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: get into the discord and take advantage of all this
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: really cool data.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also not a free discord.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: I feel like it is one of those things where
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: it's sometimes like you know someone who does content creation
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: and stuff for a living, It's like some have a
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: challenge in talking about it. But it's like Shivenation, it
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: costs money. We try and make it as affordable as possible. Well,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: Alex's discord pays for itself in one day in many
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: cases for many of the members. So it's like, yes,
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: you have to invest if you're interested, but if you're
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: actually interested in this type of stuff, that's where these
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: sites and options and things that we do. DFS mastermind
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: the same way these all come into play. If you're
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: actually trying to get better, have fun, enjoy a hobby,
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: be around people that are like minded, and do it together.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: It works out to like a dollar or two dollars
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: a day, and people, oh, it adds up, and it does.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: But playing blindly also adds up when you're losing a
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: lot of the times. And I've been there myself, so
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: I can tell you it's just coming from experience on
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: my own right. So the more you can be around
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: people like that, you know, the cliche saying your network
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: is your net worth, I love that one.
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: It is so true.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: If you can hang around like other people that are
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: doing this at a high level, it definitely helps you
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: get better at what you're doing and then find some
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: other fun things along the way that you can apply
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: if even one of them end up going your way,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: and it gives you an opportunity for that, that can
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: be a lot better than where many others are sitting
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: on the sidelines, just you know, depositing and saying hopefully
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: this is the week again.
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: It's like that's that's part of it as well.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: So that's that's a good reminder. Two. I think the
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: US Open is a phenomenal opportunity on the on the
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: Pickham side of things, an underdog, and you know, we
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: had a we had four, we went four for four
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: and PGA picks on Sunday. Then hit five was six
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: in MLB on maybe that was Monday, or it might
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: have been Saturday Sun whatever, and then a huge six
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 3: for six Monday. So in baseball, it's been an absolutely
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 3: awesome run on the on the Pickham side of things,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 3: and we're going to continue that. And and I think
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 3: the US opens a phenomenal opportunity because like one of
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: the things that we've been having a lot of success
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: with is just observing scoring conditions and then hammering inefficient lines.
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 3: And when you have as much wind and as much
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: kind of like sensitivity to pin locations as Shinnacock is
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 3: going to have, there are going to be missed priced players,
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 3: miss priced props, and we're gonna be there to take advantage.
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 3: So get another reason to join the discord.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And if you guys want to join ship Nation,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: it's on the screen. If you just want to for
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: this week, nineteen bucks.
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: You get the trial for five full days that includes
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: all the showdown slates and that that's everything, that's all
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: access for nineteen dollars. Including sabersim. If you want the
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: month though, it's a much better deal. It's only an
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: extra dollar a day more. You go up to forty
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: nine bucks from the nineteen, adding thirty dollars, so forty
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: nine for the month. That's our normal ninety nine dollars
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: a month plan. It's the core plan. You can check
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: that out over at ship at nation dot com. You
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: can find me on x at Totag and tambo. Good
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: luck to everybody this week that's gonna do it for
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: this one, for Alex and for myself Totag and tambo
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: let ship it