Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 314: Hard Questions, Hard Decisions — Positioning Your Operation in a Drought with John Campbell

Transcript

314: Hard Questions, Hard Decisions — Positioning Your Operation in a Drought with John Campbell · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
In today's episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast, we are
0:03
welcoming John Campbell on once again to give us a rundown on
0:06
the cattle market. Everything that we are seeing
0:08
right now across the region, across the nation.
0:10
And then we are going into a really tough topic for a lot of
0:14
people right now. And we are talking about drought
0:17
and how you as producers can start asking questions and
0:20
making those decisions that a lot of us across the country are
0:24
going to be facing in the coming weeks.
0:26
John walks us through. Some historical evidence walks
0:29
us through some advice that he's received.
0:31
He's been through three droughts himself.
0:33
And so he is here to provide all of the advice and kind of the
0:37
steps that all of us as producers should be going
0:39
through. Before we hop into today's
0:41
podcast episode with John, if you're watching on YouTube, make
0:43
sure you take a second hit that subscribe button.
0:45
And like this episode, any of our other podcast platforms,
0:48
make sure you take a second to go follow the show rate and
0:50
review it and share it with a friend.
0:51
If you enjoyed today's episode or know someone else that needs
0:54
to hear this, without further ado, let's go ahead and hear
0:57
from Mr. John Campbell. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
1:03
podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
1:07
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
1:10
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
1:12
passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
1:15
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:18
episode. John, welcome back to the
1:25
podcast once again. I know you are giggling at me
1:29
because we start this podcast and I'm always just like my
1:32
camera face goes on and I know that's why you're giggling back
1:35
there. No, it's actually not.
1:37
I was thinking this is horrible, but I'm just actually picturing
1:41
you with a piece of bacon in your mouth.
1:43
But you know, so sometimes my mind doesn't go where you think
1:47
it goes. My goodness.
1:48
Well, I am glad that you have that visual of me hanging out
1:52
here with just like a piece of bacon and hanging out of my
1:54
mouth. OK, I'm.
1:58
Glad I can bring some humor. I know you're wanting to put
2:00
that behind you, but it just, you know, I can't help.
2:03
It that's OK. That was the vision, Dan.
2:06
You know, Dan had the visual aids last time he was he was on
2:10
it. Dan coming to the office with a
2:12
little like doggy bag of bacon was commitment and I'll give
2:18
that to him. I will give that one to him.
2:19
My gosh. Well, how has life and lovely
2:22
Lahana been? How are the markets this week?
2:24
You know, I thought everything pretty steady for the, for the
2:28
most part, the finger cattle are trying to get cheaper, but you
2:31
know, a little over 2000 cattle here.
2:33
We had a special cow stock, cow bread, pepper pear sale here.
2:39
And, and you could kind of see everybody kind of trying to
2:44
clean up some loose ends around, you know, I, I guess it'd be the
2:47
best way I would describe it, but lightweight steers and
2:50
hepper cabs, I thought steady, strong, some of these bigger new
2:54
crop cabs And surprising for lunch, we had a lot of fall
2:58
cambers. So consequently we split a lot
3:01
of new crop cams off of them. I thought they were a little
3:03
cheaper there. There was a definite distinction
3:06
between a new crop cap and a longer aged wien calf.
3:12
So I kind of thought the Cavs 3 to 10 lower, but the composition
3:17
of what we were selling drastically different from what
3:20
we sold last week. But you know, we still had
3:23
surprisingly, I think a lot of people are are still kind of
3:27
liking the cattle deal and they're pretty good demand for
3:32
these little light cabs guys very conscientious about dollars
3:36
per head and if you can't buy them cheaper while you got to
3:39
buy them lighter to keep the dollars per head down.
3:42
So some little 330 weight cattle at six and a quarter, some 420
3:47
weight steers at 589, which wouldn't be any cheaper.
3:51
Our best 5 weight cabs brought the 490, but again those would
3:55
have been off the cow. But even the packages of Wing
3:58
cabs when 5510203040, I thought we're cheaper and we've about
4:04
wore it out, but we're comparing it to a 4000 head run of of
4:08
excellent quality last week. So take that into mind.
4:11
Still had 6 weight cattle on up to 433.
4:15
Of course they were weaned, but some 665 LB cattle at four O 1,
4:21
they would have went back out on the grass and then the big break
4:25
happens. You know you get up in them 7
4:27
and 8 weight cattle and you can sure tell the difference in the
4:30
players between the guys that are flying for grass and turn
4:34
out and the guys going to the feed yard. 770 weight steers at
4:38
375. Same thing held true on the
4:41
heifer side. 3 weight effers at 650.
4:44
Some little black weaned effers weigh in four O 5 at 547 1/2,
4:49
which actually would have been higher than anything we did last
4:52
week. 85 at 469 we sold a nice draft out of New Mexico, some
5:00
lean black eppers, all homegrown 565 at 4:36 and 6:00 weight
5:07
heppers 395 and then you go up £100 and you back them off 50
5:12
bucks a hundred 345. Those big eppers going going on
5:17
feed. As I mentioned, good selection
5:19
of fall cabin cows, which is unusual, but that's kind of the
5:23
1st to go if, if these guys have got them.
5:26
It's interesting, everybody kind of tries a fall cabin cow around
5:30
here, but then availability of feed and grass kind of pops it
5:34
head up, up when you're in the middle of the desert and and
5:37
those are the first ones to kind of go to town.
5:40
But you know, the bulk of these young pears would bring 4000 to
5:45
4700. We have one set of two year olds
5:49
up to 5800. I'm talking pears here.
5:51
The fall cabin cows, 39 and 1/4 that I thought was great. 345
5:58
year olds the the older fall cabin cows and not be talking
6:02
about a cow that wouldn't cow that wouldn't mouth 2026 hundred
6:07
which still beats the hell out of way in them and back on pears
6:12
solid mouth bears now these would have little calves on them
6:15
37 to 4100 and some bulk of the broken mouth cows and I'd be
6:21
talking here a lot of cow weigh in 11-12 with a week to month
6:26
old care. Those old bears 3030, four, $100
6:31
had some packages of maybe the summer cabin cows, the young
6:37
cows 32 to 39 quality maybe not quite as good as the fall
6:41
cavers, but the market steady on the heavy springers and the old
6:46
pregnant cows again cabin in the summertime here in the next 90
6:50
days kind of 26 to 3300. So you could kind of see the
6:57
edge coming off a bit, a little bit.
6:58
You know, the old Mr. Dry Weather was kind of showing his
7:02
presence here a little bit. Definitely has been.
7:04
Is this a theme that we've been kind of seeing across the region
7:07
right now or is this kind of concentrated and what we're
7:10
seeing in Lahana right now? You know, Eastern Kansas, you
7:14
get back to Salina and I talked to a the guy that buys a few
7:19
Cavalier and and the Pear deal and the Springers back there
7:23
where they have had some moisture is still extremely,
7:26
extremely stout. So not seeing the decline in the
7:30
bread stock way east of that that we would see here.
7:34
But Dodge City, KS yesterday with the 26127 cattle, kind of a
7:41
similar pattern in that they called the weights under £700,
7:46
let's call them grazing cattle pretty much steady and then you
7:50
get in weights over 7 headed to the feed lot.
7:53
They called their market 5 to 10 lower of the some little 5,
7:57
excuse me, 385 LB stairs at Dodge AT64450AT512548.
8:05
Pardon me, 500 pounders at 5:12 they still had 6 weight cattle
8:10
to turn out at six 54700 LB steers.
8:15
And this time of year, these guys will turn a £700 steer out
8:20
if the condition is right up to 416.
8:23
But then you back them off about $50 a hundred when you go from
8:29
7:00 to 8:00. And the best 8 weight cattle in
8:32
Dodge City yesterday bring 368 versus A7 weight at 4:16 and
8:38
9:00 weights to 345. Still a great market, but that
8:42
that would be a little that would be a little cheaper for
8:44
side of things. 4 weight Eppers, Dodge City, Kansas at 510, five
8:49
weights at 427 1/2. They had 6 weight effers AT3997
8:55
weights at 365. There you can kind of see the
8:58
break again and 850 weight Evers up to 328.
9:03
Pratt that having a big sale today, still trading some Grays
9:07
out cattle, some cattle coming off Grays out wheat and rye
9:10
today And Pratt, it'll be interesting.
9:12
But last week you know that they they call their feeders 6 to 10
9:18
lower and the same thing as we're seeing in a lot in Dodge
9:21
this week. Weights under £700 would have
9:24
been steady 450 weight steers in Pratt, KS.
9:28
This would have been a week ago at 5 1/2 five weights at 526
9:32
weights at 4:57. They their best 7 weight cattle
9:37
brought 392 and 8 and a quarter weight cattle at 375 Pratt, KS.
9:43
5 weight eppers at 460. Still selling some cattle and
9:47
I'm sure they would go back outside weighing. 6 heppers now
9:51
at 402. Seven weight feeders AT5428
9:55
weights at 3:41 overall across the region kind of called cabs,
10:03
soccer, steady, anything suitable to turn out and the
10:07
feed and cattle under a little pressure.
10:09
And I, I think people were disappointed by the commodities
10:12
market and then the fact that boy, we just could not hold that
10:17
to, you know, $4950 market on the fats, kind of a reaction to
10:23
both of those things. Yeah, for sure.
10:26
Capitalize on cross breeding with gelvi and balancer bowls.
10:30
Raise replacement heifers with added fertility, increased
10:34
longevity and greater productivity.
10:37
Gelvi and balance are influenced.
10:39
Females wean more pounds of calf per cow exposed in the feed
10:44
yard. Balancer influenced cattle offer
10:46
increased performance, improve feed efficiency and have
10:50
excellent carcass merit. Balancers add the pounds, make
10:54
the grade and deliver the value. Carcass data from over 5200 head
10:59
of Gelvy and Balancer cattle resulted in 90% Prime and Choice
11:05
with 88% yield. Grades 1-2 and three grow with
11:10
Gelvy. More pay weight, more profit.
11:13
For more information go to www.galvi.org.
11:18
That is gelbvieh.org and I know that we're feeling a lot of
11:26
pressure across the region as well because of a lack of
11:29
moisture. And that that is really playing
11:32
into a lot of decisions that people are making right now, a
11:35
lot of decisions on what's showing up in the sale barns.
11:38
And I think what's going to continue to show up over the
11:41
coming weeks as people really have to start making those
11:44
summer grazing decisions if we don't start getting moisture in
11:48
some of our really vital areas. And that's kind of what we
11:51
wanted to talk about today to John.
11:53
And you've, you're bringing a topic to US that I know is
11:55
really important to a lot of producers as they start having
11:59
to make those really tough decisions on if we need to start
12:02
selling breads, if we need to start selling some older cows,
12:05
calling harder, whatever those decisions are.
12:08
The market right now is still in a place where it could be a
12:13
smart decision for a lot of people that are facing those
12:15
difficult times. So I'd love to hear just your
12:18
thoughts on it and some words of advice that you've got for us.
12:22
Well, yes, very, very true. Several listener questions over
12:27
the last week about marketing questions and and what is a plan
12:31
for positioning oneself with some kind of a deck drought
12:35
program. And you know, everybody's
12:37
operation is different. So it's not a one-size-fits-all,
12:40
but you know, what one person can do, the next person cannot.
12:45
Depends on the availability of land, London pasture finances
12:49
enter into it, the feed cost and the availability of feed labor.
12:55
Another key issue. So you kind of have to weigh a
12:59
lot of those things out. But I thought I got to put
13:01
together being haven't gone through about 3 droughts.
13:06
You know, you kind of come to some conclusions and, and I
13:10
think first and foremost and, and most people do this anyway,
13:13
but it's paramount now. And I kind of call it the first
13:17
stages is kind of clean up any of those little light cabs that
13:21
you thought were too small to sell last ball and you weaned
13:24
them and carried them over. You know, that would be where I
13:29
would start. Of course, open cows and which a
13:32
lot of people have already done that.
13:34
They just traditionally do it in the fall, you know, with with a
13:37
lot of people had old grass and kind of carrying on some
13:40
remnants. Why you know, the sore eyes, the
13:42
lumps, the lame cows, the bad, bad cows disposition, all the
13:47
problem cows and bulls. They should be right at the top
13:50
of the list and especially as good as the market is.
13:53
Why I, I would go ahead and pitch all of them and, and a
13:57
couple just reflections. You know that there's, there's
14:01
kind of a general assumption and I would agree with it.
14:04
It is awfully, awfully difficult to feed your way out of a
14:07
drought. You know, it's kind of you're
14:09
damned if you buy feed, damned if you don't.
14:11
And you know, sure as hell you buy 2 loads of AY.
14:15
You know one thing it'll keep, but then it'll rain if you won't
14:19
need it. Or you sell cows and then it
14:23
rains and you wish you had them back.
14:24
But so anyway, everybody has a a different posture and like I
14:29
said, different resources available.
14:32
You may be a farmer and have two years of unmurchable feed piled
14:37
up and your timeline is going to be completely different than a
14:40
strictly grass cow calf guy. And I think most producers do
14:46
have a timeline set up and have dates that they'll start
14:49
adjusting. And I think that is paramount.
14:53
You know, don't wait till the last minute to make a decision.
14:57
You know, I the, the most successful people that I see or
15:01
the people that I tend to agree with the most that they just
15:05
mark a spot on the calendar. And if I don't have sufficient
15:08
moisture by X day, plan my workout and get my help gathered
15:13
up and work, we're going to do something.
15:15
And I think that's very prudent and important because you can't
15:18
second guess the weather. So all you can deal with it is
15:22
the facts that you got. Again, the comments that I have
15:25
real general, very, very broad. But I think the first, after
15:29
that initial cleanup, I would probably sell replacement open
15:34
heifers myself. And now a lot of people opt to
15:37
put those on feed and that's certainly an alternative to try
15:40
to buy a little more time, put the bulls with them.
15:43
You can, you know, help your nutrition playing to get your
15:46
heifers bread up a little better.
15:47
But at the current price levels, and I've mentioned this before,
15:51
you know, you, you can really make an argument as to why you
15:54
would keep heifers at this level in the 1st place, whether it was
15:58
dry or not. And but once it gets dry, I I
16:02
think that makes that call a little more obvious inventory in
16:06
one of these 2500 to $3000 heifers for two years before she
16:12
case flows and then carry her on your books at an inflated price
16:18
the rest of her productive life. I I, I just had a lot of old cow
16:23
men tell me the time to keep Peppers is when they're cheap,
16:28
not when they're at historical highs.
16:30
All things be being being equal. But the third thing that I would
16:34
do probably sell those out of step cows for the summer cabin
16:39
cows, the fall cabin cows, as we mentioned the markets awfully
16:42
good on them cows that you know, are our fall cabin.
16:46
Most of what we get here, it's because guys had the grass and
16:49
they missed. So they thought, well, I'll just
16:51
put the bulls with him. I got the grass, I'll I'll carry
16:53
him. And that was a smart decision to
16:55
make. The market took care of you.
16:57
But those would be the next thing that that that I would
17:00
kind of clean up and and kind of a marketing tip currently what
17:05
it pays to have your auction people break all those cows.
17:10
I, I mean, something that you well, yeah, she might be bred.
17:12
Maybe, maybe not. I'd go ahead and spend the money
17:15
and break her. What, what's 5 bucks?
17:17
You know, the if they got a chance of being bred, I, I would
17:22
have your, your vet go ahead and work them in your Sailbond guy
17:25
and Markham if if they were going to sell them.
17:27
Even some of these thinner older Laven cows by the head are, are
17:32
figuring back to $2.00 to 10/20/30 a pound, which is a
17:37
hell of a lot more than than she'll weigh out.
17:39
The exception might be if you're a farmer feeder, you got a big
17:42
14 fifteen 1600 LB cow that's hauled fat and doesn't cab till
17:48
next fall. Now she dollars out more than
17:51
she would to sell by the head and, and you may want to weigh
17:54
her, but still money well spent to you know, if you think, well,
17:57
I got 20 gallon, Ah, there might be 5 or 6 of them bread.
18:00
Go ahead and work and it it it will pay and and and your call
18:06
may be a guy with a pile of feeds in short term investments.
18:11
Everybody looks at a bread gal a little differently and I and I
18:15
think next on the list would kind of be again and pretty
18:18
self-explanatory would be these old thinner pears, you know,
18:23
cows that you don't think, boy in dry conditions, they're going
18:26
to have a tough time raising a calf.
18:28
And, and you know, any of those heart keeping cows, unproductive
18:32
younger cows, I think they're probably the next on the list of
18:36
things to go. I think the toughest decision
18:39
next, you know, really involves scratching your head with both
18:44
hands and and using both your index finger and your thumb as a
18:48
nose picker because it's a deep and a hairy decision.
18:53
It is tough. It's tough.
18:54
Do I sell my older, more productive cows and keep my herd
18:59
young, take advantage of improved genetics that I've
19:02
introduced into my program or do I sell my high dollar two year
19:08
old bears? And I think that's a tough
19:10
decision. And and and it's a great
19:12
question. You know, Tuesday here there
19:15
there was a $1200 a pair difference between a 2 year old
19:20
bear and some of these three to five year old bears, meaning the
19:23
2 year old pair sure brought a premium and seventeen $2100
19:29
difference between them and the solid mouth pair.
19:33
So the decision for me, I'd sell my 2 year old bears and I'd keep
19:38
my more productive proven gout. None of it's anything you want
19:43
to do. And you think, God Dang, I, you
19:45
know, I've had these things this long, they're going to dollar
19:49
out the best for you. It just seems like those
19:53
heifers, calves, they're always a little lighter in the fall.
19:57
They're going to be worth less. And anybody that's tried
20:00
breeding those? First calf heifers back dry
20:03
weather and heifer conception rates are are not real good
20:08
gambling on So you know you're you're taking a high dollar full
20:12
retail pair. We sold 2 year old bears here
20:15
for $5800 here on just two days ago and a boy that heifer comes
20:21
up open you're you're just turning her into a feeding cow
20:25
and that's two steps better than a dead slip.
20:28
So cash in on that high retail heifer in in, in my opinion and
20:33
keep your big good booty producing cows intact.
20:38
And so and the final step, I think short of a complete
20:44
dispersal and there's not many people that will do it because
20:48
the average cow calf guy is not very well versed in this
20:52
discipline. But that would be to wean your
20:55
calves and you can either wean them and sell them now that
21:00
calf's worth, you know, the weighs 3 it's worth 2020 one
21:04
$200 or you can wean them and and put them on feed somewhere.
21:09
And just knowing that every dollar in that cost to gain is
21:13
returning 3-4 dollars a pound. And I'm pretty optimistic on on
21:18
in the fall and a lot of the calf starters around here, the
21:22
guys that just buy calves, they'll tell you that, you know,
21:26
kind of two £250 is the minimum weight to wean 1 and get him
21:31
started. And actually from now through
21:34
Labor Day, a lot of people will tell you that it's easier to
21:38
start a cap now than it is when we have the cold temperature in
21:41
the big temperature swings in the fall of the years.
21:44
So the idea behind weaning calves now is I think you'll see
21:48
your maintenance in your cow drop 1/3 for sure.
21:52
And some people even say take takes half as much feed, you
21:56
know, to summer that cow dry versus if she's got a calf
22:00
pulling her down. So, you know, just a little
22:04
better way of, of keeping your cows together and take advantage
22:08
of your available grass in in the in the drought of 2002, I
22:14
got a lot of calls and really had never been through 1.
22:18
And I consulted what I thought was the oldest and most
22:21
reputable cowman that that I could find.
22:24
And, and you know, there was a lot of old school wisdom came
22:28
out with conversations from those guys and and that kind of
22:31
made a little list. Act early.
22:34
Don't wait till the last minute. As we touched on before
22:37
typically, and you can look at weather patterns and they will
22:42
far and away support this. A drought never lasts just one
22:46
year. And and that's something to
22:47
something really to consider. Sell your cows, don't move them.
22:51
And and that's by no means a play for bringing Gattle to the
22:55
auction because the biggest crisis that the auction here in
22:59
a lot of ever went through was a drought of O2 because we sold
23:03
all the factories and we went from the biggest year we've ever
23:07
had. And it was also the worst year
23:09
we ever had because we sold all the factories off and we never
23:13
got those cows back. To this date, we have never, you
23:16
know, and there's a lot of other scenarios in there, but the key
23:19
thing was the drought. So, you know, I just, I talked
23:23
to so many people that move their cows.
23:25
They just thought that was the thing to do.
23:27
And almost without exception, you go back to him now and they
23:32
say that that was the worst thing I've ever done.
23:34
I never should have moved those cows.
23:36
You know, like we mentioned earlier, you may not have any
23:41
grass to come back to next year. I mean, that was the Sedara.
23:44
Well, we'll just summer over there and then we'll bring him
23:46
back. Well, hell, it wasn't.
23:49
There wasn't anything to come back to again.
23:51
A drought very seldom last one year.
23:54
And and then you're actually paying for two places.
23:57
You know, if you're trying to play pay for your home place and
24:01
plus your your your written grass boy, you're doubling down
24:05
on that and also grass for pairs.
24:08
Your lens is is tough enough, but a grass repairs really,
24:12
really hard to find. And when you do find it, it'll
24:16
have a pretty stout price tag associated with them.
24:19
And and we don't really think western cows adjust well to the
24:25
Eastern climate and humidity. We got cows with a lot of hair
24:30
and boy, that that heat takes a toll on them.
24:33
And, you know, eastern grass and waist high and that's no feed
24:39
value. And you know, you go back there,
24:41
eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, There's a reason in
24:44
the summer those guys run around with them little cake feeders on
24:47
those flatbed pickups. It isn't for looks.
24:50
They have to feed them because that grass rolls A7 and it ain't
24:54
worth shit. And so, you know, just just
24:57
little things like that. I think if you have to and you
25:01
think it's a must that you move your cows, I would move the cows
25:05
and not move the pears. I would wean the cap.
25:08
I would sell a cap. You know it.
25:12
It just seems like a lot of people will go on with it.
25:14
It's hard enough moving pears from one pasture to the next,
25:19
let alone moving them three states away.
25:21
It just creates a lot of problem.
25:23
And then one thing that I learned not only on cows, but
25:26
also on yearlings, never get so far away that you can't be to
25:31
your cows in one day and just write that down and count your
25:35
cattle every month. And beast of I-35 was in fact
25:40
settled by moonshiners and horse thieves and they are still
25:44
there. I'm sorry.
25:45
Or they're, they're just, they're, they're still out
25:47
there. A lot of the testimonials and
25:50
really that I got it as a reflection.
25:52
And, and this was, you know, our major 1 was, my gosh, now 24
25:56
years ago. But you know, still kind of the
25:59
common theme is you, you pay the freight both ways and still end
26:03
up feeding your cows where, where you move them to by
26:05
example, would you still got to cake them cows in June and July.
26:09
You still got to put some feed out.
26:11
Hell, you could have saved the freight and done that on your
26:13
own grass and ticks, flies and worms.
26:17
Oh my, why no ponds is no way no for shit.
26:21
And that doesn't matter if you are in North Dakota or in
26:26
eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and we know nothing
26:30
about that. But there's a reason why those
26:33
guys have ponds and if you don't have them you are in trouble.
26:37
Grass whores. The locals have all the good
26:40
spots already tied up. I can assure you that DVD and
26:45
last cattle are two of the many things that you will bring home.
26:49
And the best caretakers typically use their own grass.
26:54
They don't lease it out. So just thoughts to consider.
26:58
Other than that, I think it's a great idea.
27:00
Just a few points. It's a great idea other than the
27:03
laundry list scroll that we've we've got out there.
27:07
It is. It is.
27:08
Up to. Move pairs.
27:09
Get them paired back up, get your cows bred back up.
27:13
You're trying to. And that doesn't mean that it
27:15
isn't done. Thank goodness for the people
27:17
out of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, you name it, Oklahoma
27:22
that came here in the drought and bought those pairs.
27:25
But and it was a tragedy they bought them at enough of a
27:28
discount that they covered their ass on the other end and they're
27:31
going taking them home and they know how to run that operation.
27:36
We know how to run cows in the West.
27:37
We do not run know how to run cows in the East.
27:40
And I'm sorry and there's exceptions everywhere.
27:43
You know, you take him to your brother and he's a full partner.
27:46
Why that's a different deal. But the farm amount to some guy
27:49
that ran an ad in the High Plains Journal may not be the
27:53
most prudent decision and it may work great.
27:55
But I have a laundry list of people that there wouldn't be
28:00
one guy in 20. And there was a lot of people
28:03
moved them. They they were so engulfed in
28:05
their genetics. And they're my cows and they had
28:08
a passion about them, which is great that make that that
28:11
separates you as a producer. Everybody loves their cows, but
28:14
don't love them to the point that they break you.
28:17
There'll be a time you can get back in and yeah, it'll probably
28:21
cost more to get back in. But none of these are are
28:24
decisions we like and situations that we like, but sometimes
28:28
we're faced with them and just observations that I've I've made
28:32
over several years and several droughts that have seemed to
28:35
hold true well, and when we. Really look at it.
28:38
The ranchers that are going to win in a drought and actually
28:42
persevere through it and have something to build off of when
28:45
they inevitably get out of the drought are the ones that are
28:48
making the hard decisions now. They're the ones that aren't
28:51
afraid to ask the questions to the guys that have been through
28:54
a few that have a few gold stars on their back saying, hey, I
28:57
survived the drought of O2. I survived the drought of O9
29:00
like I we persevered through these and really listen to the
29:04
guys that whether it's in your specific area, your region, or
29:09
just some guys that have been around the block a time or two,
29:11
listening to that advice and really taking it to heart and
29:15
trying to, I mean, I say it all the time, like this is a very
29:18
emotional business. We care a lot about our cattle
29:21
and that's, that's the glory of it.
29:23
That's an amazing part of being a rancher, but it's also
29:25
sometimes our downfall because when drought comes around and we
29:29
have to make strategic business decisions, it makes it really
29:32
difficult because we have so much emotion tied up into this.
29:36
And I think my biggest piece of advice to these guys is to
29:39
really look at all of the things that you just talked about
29:41
today, John, from a removed business strategic standpoint of
29:46
like, hey, I'm trying to make my ranch and my operation survive
29:50
for the next 10/15/20, thirty, 50-60 years, not just for the
29:54
next year. And in order for it to survive
29:58
the next few generations, you might have to make some hard
30:01
decisions now for that long term gain in the future.
30:04
Because if you're deciding that you're going to feed these
30:06
cattle over the summer, OK, that's fine.
30:09
That is your decision if you can back it up.
30:11
But you are going to be spending this in a sense maybe the same
30:15
amount of money over an extended period of time as it would cost
30:19
you in a couple years to just buy some cows back.
30:21
And so it's which like it's a catch 22 either way.
30:25
And you never know if a drought is going to last a year or five
30:28
years. And there's there's just a lot
30:30
of risk when you go in and you make these decisions.
30:33
And I think it's you just have to remember that, that you're
30:36
carrying a lot of risk and you've got to approach it from a
30:39
business mindset. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:41
And. There's a pretty good chance
30:43
your decision will be wrong, but yeah, it's one that you make and
30:46
one you have to make timely. Yeah, could start, you know, it
30:55
could start raining too the day after, you don't know.
30:59
But like I said, I really agree with the guys that just mark a
31:02
date on the calendar and they say, you know what, I'm this is
31:06
crazy. You know, I'm buying a, I'm
31:08
buying a, I'm buying A and there's getting to be a bigger
31:11
pool of people like me. And then pretty soon we're going
31:15
to have all these cows hit and da, da, da, da.
31:17
One thing about it, in O2 we sold bears for $700.00 and
31:22
yesterday we sold them for $5800.
31:25
You know, it's a little easier pill to swallow than it was
31:29
years ago. And, and so we can, we can be
31:32
thankful for, for a great market.
31:34
And, and I am not, I am advocating selling cows if you
31:38
have to, but boy, it is, believe me, it is not the kind of
31:42
business we appreciate. And like, we appreciate the
31:44
business, but boy, we don't, we don't like it.
31:46
We don't like it because you're, you're selling the factory off
31:49
and that's what turns the, the gin here.
31:52
So we we need numbers, but we don't need numbers today that we
31:57
sacrifice for the next 810 years.
31:59
Absolutely. And I.
32:01
Think it comes down to the fact that not making a decision is
32:04
also making a decision. And put that date on the
32:07
calendar. If we're going through it, know
32:09
that you're not going through it alone and that there are your
32:13
local auction markets like people like John that are
32:16
running these that you can call and that can walk you through
32:18
your situation in your scenario and help you come up with what
32:22
is the best in relation to the markets.
32:24
And in relation to what we're seeing over the next few months
32:27
on what it's going to continue to look like and the decisions
32:30
that we're going to continue to have to make, you know?
32:34
Exactly. And you know, I look back at O2,
32:37
that was just the severe drought this country has ever had.
32:40
And it was pretty hard to find somebody that was still alive in
32:44
the 30s, you know, because it had been that long.
32:46
I, I mean, it just, but I managed to find two or three
32:49
guys that went through The Dirty 30s in, in 2002 and they were
32:54
all 80 some years old. It was interesting.
32:56
They remembered and and the the answer to those hard questions
33:01
was the same from everyone. I'm so absolutely, absolutely.
33:05
Well, our prayers are going out to everyone that is listening to
33:08
this podcast episode right now and is in the midst of having to
33:11
make those hard decisions that is listening to this because
33:14
they are in the trenches right now.
33:16
Our hearts and our prayers go out to you for rain, for
33:18
moisture, or just guidance in all that you do and all the
33:21
decisions that you have to make going into the next few weeks
33:23
and next few months. But John, thank you for coming
33:26
on today and sharing your insights, sharing some stories,
33:29
sharing just how we can continue to work at these cattle, make
33:33
the best decisions for our operations as we go through
33:36
these difficult times. We appreciate it, as always.
33:38
And to all of you listeners out there, we will see you all next
33:41
week on another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
33:44
Have a good one y'all.