Latest / Drive with John Perlman / Coalitions talks continue

Transcript

Coalitions talks continue · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: You're with John Pullman on 702.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Let's walk the talk.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Right, let's stay with our conversation about coalitions and welcome
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: to the show Dr. Boussani Ngaweni. He is the director
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: at the Center for Public Policy and African Studies at
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the Johannesburg Business School, part of UGAE. Dr. Nkaweni, welcome
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: and thanks very much for giving us your time. Quite
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of our conversations so far has been very
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: much around Action SA and the DA, but I wanted
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: to start off in a rather different place and get
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: your view, please, to kick us off on the state
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: of the relationship between the DA and the ANC. They walked,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say, a long distance in
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: putting together their part of the governing arrangement that applies
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: at national level, but also in a province like KZN.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: How would you characterize the state of that relationship now, though?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Very good afternoon to you.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon and thanks for having me. So that relationship
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: is critical but stable between the ANC and the DA.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: The problem that exists between these two parties is that
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: they are happy to be in the GNU National, they
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: are happy to be in the GPU, which includes the IFP,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: in Gwazulu Natal. But right within the structures where they
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: are at, they continue to sharpen contradictions amongst each other,
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: including ministers of one of these parties, especially the DA,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: challenging their own cabinet colleagues, the President, the Deputy President,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: and everybody else. It sharpens contradictions to the extent that
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: those who are outside, especially in the ANC, when they
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: see these statements being made by members of the executive
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: who are in the GNU challenging their own colleagues, they
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: start questioning and doubting whether or not there is honesty
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: about this type of a relationship. And so it is stable,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: but it is also critical. I think at national level,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: they remain committed to being together. The second thing that
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: sharpens contradictions is the fact that the DA applies what
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I call government communications with DA characteristics. What do I
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: mean by this? DA ministers, they don't wait to communicate.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: They are out there. They will even have third parties
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: outside who are supporting them to communicate because they are
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: permanently on a PR mission. And those who are in
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the ANC who tend to take longer to communicate or
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: in certain instances don't even, they get very upset and irritated.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: And then you colleagues in the media, when you do
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: your brilliant job, sometimes in December, you do the rating
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: of ministers and so on, and they get very upset
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: because others will tend to be rated higher because they
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: are much more proactive in communicating as opposed to the other.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: There's a second part that sharpens the contradictions between these participants,
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: generally speaking. they remain together. We know the statement made
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: by the DA when there were issues around Palau Palau
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: that they wouldn't support any idea of a vote of
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: no confidence or the impeachment of the president that shows
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: then the kind of bond that exists between the two.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it sounds like a complicated relationship. Let's just follow
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: that up then, Dr. Ngaweni, and get your take on
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the inside of the African National Congress.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Because.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a national relationship doesn't necessarily translate into a productive conversation
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: about the governance, for example, of Mfuleni or a smaller
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: municipality somewhere in the Western Cape. Are there going to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: be local decisions there? Or is the ANC... eventually going
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to make a decision about whether it works with the ANC,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I beg your pardon, with the DA or not, in
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: municipalities that everyone must abide? I would have thought if
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: there was the latter, that could sharpen contradictions, to use
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: your expression, quite profoundly within the ANC.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Well, look, most definitely. So there are very limited options
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: that the ANC have. So you could use the GNU
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: agreement as a framework for how you can replicate it
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: at a local level. And you can even impose it
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: within the ANC itself and say, look, this is the
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: arrangement we have. Government is stable at the national and
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: in KwaZulu-Natal, let's use the same model and replicate it
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: with some space for variation where there is a need
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: for doing so. But there will be others very sharply
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: within the ANC itself who of course would say, we've
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: had to tolerate this contradiction that happened with the DA
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: at a national executive level. We are not going to
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: do it at a local level. And so they will
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: be pushing hard for this very weird idea in a
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: majority black country who are pushing for something called, you know,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: a black caucus of sorts, which is something very weird.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Of course, others are pushing for what they call the
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: left type of a coalition agenda. What does that mean?
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: That will mean And we can take just one province,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: which is where this idea of a single national structure, which,
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: as we were told by the letter of the SG,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: will coordinate how we are negotiating coalitions countrywide. In case then,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: it's not going to be possible for a total exclusion
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: of MKP in municipalities that are hung, but where they
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: are leading, And it says where they are leading by
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: leading between 30% and 40%. So the NC would have
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: to be very humble to know that in these municipalities,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: we do not stand a chance there, that let's let
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: these other ones form a government. Because if you want
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: to replicate the PNU at a municipal level, it will
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: not be possible across all of these. You need a
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: lot of humble pie here, where the NC must discipline
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: those who believe that they still want to be in
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: the mayoral office or next to the mayoral office because
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: we know the benefits and the patronage that goes with it.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: So the contract will sharpen very sharply within the NEC,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: within the provincial structure, and there will in the end
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: be dealings that will be done at a local level.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I want to get your take, Dr. Ngaweni. You know,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: following this thread that you've just pulled through for us
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and your take on KZN, Same question, I suppose, or
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: framed in the same way as I asked you in
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: regard to ANC members' attitude to the DA. What do
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: you think is the balance of power within the ANC
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: in regard to working with the MK party? There is,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: of course, what you said, a degree of humility and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: a degree of acceptance of reality. But if we move
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: that question to a slightly more emotional level, Do you
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: think a majority of role players in the ANC would
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: like some kind of more general accord with the MK party?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Or is there a sense of grievance that says, you
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: know what, you wanted a fight, we'll continue to give
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: you one?
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Oh, no, not at local level. At local level, there
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: is a lot of sympathy in many instances because remember
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: that these are their comrades. These are the people they
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: grew up with. These are the people they were leading
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: with who became aggrieved for the variety of of internal
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: contradictions with the ANC and they ended up in the MKP.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: So there will be some degree of loyalty. In fact,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: even among some of the national leaders, as I'm saying,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: there's two views. Some will say, do work with MKP
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: and work with EFF and they characterize it as being
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: a black caucus, which is very weird in a majority
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: black country. And there are some who are saying, no,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: let's have a left alliance, a progressive alliance. And then
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: they put MKP And they put MKP as well as
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: EFF in that so-called, you know, progressive alliance, which is
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: very strange. And none of them theorize this thing, you know, sufficiently,
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: by the way. And so it would be very difficult
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: to replicate the national GNU formula in every local space.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Besides the fact that there are too many, over 108
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: of them, it would be more difficult to replicate the
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: KZN GPU formula across the local space as much as
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: it will be in Gauteng as well as in the
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Eastern Cape as well. So when I have to talk
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: to General Olomisa to say, well, we work with you national,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: let's work with you on these municipalities, maybe we form
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: a government. But here is a bigger issue, John. You know,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: we can do a chess game and actually apply a
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: very advanced, you know, mathematical formula here. The bigger issue
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: here is that does not deal with the fundamentals of
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: why people ended up voting for other parties, other states themselves.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: And some of these deals that will be made will
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: make people more agree that it means, if I can
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: be extreme, it means some of them may be in
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: a coalition with Donald Trump if it means they will
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: be in the office. So this is what the dilemma
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: the agency needs to manage because people are quite emotional
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: about this kind of thing. And the second one is,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: if you enter these coalitions, who then do you advance
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: to represent you in that broader collective? It means there's
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: a moment at which you may have to bring the
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: best of your best into doing so, and not necessarily
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: the one who occupies a leadership position, and therefore they
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: automatically qualify into that space. So the contradictions will be
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: sharpened at every level of governance, as the case may be.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Complicated, interesting, fascinating, and I think hugely consequential for the elections.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: and the politics of the future, but we're only on
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: day two. I think the countdown began yesterday, 14 days
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: from Monday, unless it began on Sunday. I don't think
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: it did. Anyway, the clock is ticking, and it is
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: going fast. It's 28 minutes past four.