Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/26/2026 with Jed Sidwell | USDA NASS Calculation MISTAKE?

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/26/2026 with Jed Sidwell | USDA NASS Calculation MISTAKE? · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome back to another week of Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here live from Juliet, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Monday morning, we have some big things to talk about.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: There was a correction made to some USDA numbers, not to mention Catalon Feeds report that came out on Friday, and we had a Brazilian election come to a close.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit of for the second trading session in a row.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle in the December contract close the day unchanged.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Makes uh swapping these slides a lot easier.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: They closed at 231.13 cents.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yet again, feeder cattle bounced up, though.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: They were up a buck and twenty cents at 348.13.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Leading hogs were up just one tick at 65.58.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: Before we look at the grain markets, like to shout out our sponsor, plus 500.
• 1:14
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• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here, the December corn contract is down this morning at 452 even.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Same thing on beans.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: They're chipping lower as we speak at 1230 at 1236 even.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: And in the December, Chicago wheat lower as well.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's at 623 even.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll look over to oil.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: I get that pulled up here.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's at 101.12, a little bit lower overnight.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Looking on to the weather, we're going to see a few more dry days.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Another big fieldwork week in the eastern cornbelt, mid-south and southeast, with largely no rain through Saturday.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Don't hold your breath.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: The weekend rain up to two to three inches into the plains and northwestern Corn Belt could make field work a lot harder there.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: As you can see, there is a fairly major storm moving across Nebraska on its way to the I states.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like to shout out some of our friends that we have in the New Mexico areas in southern Colorado, praying for them that they keep their heads above water as they've seen some massive flooding there in the Farmington, Pagosa Springs, those towns, man, saying our thoughts and prayers for all those folks out there.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: On the grain market side of things, the NAS made an error and they actually came out and admitted it.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Didn't cause just a whole lot, though.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, corn was a little bit lower overnight.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: NASA announced Friday that the September corn production report had a processing or error in Kansas and Nebraska.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Nebraska yield goes from 177 to 182.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Kansas is from 121 to 118.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: The national yield went from actually up from 178.5 to 178.8.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: None of this really changes the balance sheet though, though, since the October WASI runs off of 181.2.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: But still, when the USDA is making errors, it makes us all just a little bit suspicious.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: This is the sheet here that you can actually see the change.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: And they're saying that the Nebraska error came from a discrepancy between dry or dry land corn and irrigated corn, and kind of got some of their wires crossed there.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Same thing in Kansas.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's a little bit maybe disheartening to see, seeing how these of reports have such a large effect on the market, but it's the hand we're dealt and we're forced to play it.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock market side of things, we had a cattle on feed report Friday, and it put the October 1 inventory at 11.372 million head.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's 99.6% of a year ago.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: The first year-over-year decline since April, that's 69,000 or 69,000 head below the 10.2% survey average and 1.6 under the kind of past five-year average.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: September placements were 87.9% of last year, just below the range.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: And September placement and the fifth the 87.9 is the fifth straight report under the survey average.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the big one.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: We've been talking about how this is a quarterly report where they break it up by steers and heifers.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Heifers on feed fell just a little bit, but not really enough to make a difference.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: It fell a 55,000 head.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's about 1.3% down.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't enough to affect the retention rates to meet up with the fall and the decrease of feeder overall feeder cattle.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: This was the breaking news that should catch everyone's headline this morning.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Brazilian's election is over officially.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Brazil's Lula historic presidential election.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: He apparently won this election by just a thin margin, and the guy competing against him, Bolsonaro, is not backing down, saying that he did not lose.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Luiz Inacio Lula de Silvia has won Brazil's presidential election, securing an unprecedented fourth term after a dramatic comeback from a first-round defeat.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Bolsonaro has refused to concede defeat, saying he would seek annulment of the outcome.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: There has been some fraud reported in this.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Certain public transportation lines just didn't run in certain key areas the day of the election.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: What this has done to their markets is absolutely crazy.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: Brazilians real, it's fallen overnight.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Their stock market is lower, expected to open lower yet again today.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, elections have effects on all markets, not just our own here in the United States.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, Brazil's a big competitor agriculturally, so we like to keep on tabs on what's happening over there.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what we have on the economic calendar for today.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: The export inspections comes out at 10 a.m.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: The crop progress comes out at 3.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Those are all central time.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you're wondering, hey, where was the Weismeier show this weekend?
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: I normally watch that.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you're a subscriber, I have good news for you.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: You do have access to it.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a subscriber to Weismeyer, it's on our website.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: It got texted out to you.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: You should see that link.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: But Weissmeyer is now a subscription service.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: And those are those two subscriptions that we offer there.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's AgBull Intel and Weissmeyer's perspective.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: You can find both of those at AgBull.com.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: Ours here at the AgBull Media site is$25 a month or$250 annually or$199 for Wiesmeyer.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Weissmeyer was giving out his show for free for the longest time, and we were saying it's going to be a premium service here at some point because the amount of effort Jim Wiesmeyer puts into his daily newsletters.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, everyone you talk to that knows Jim talks about how much of a workhorse he is and how much content he himself is allows to put hit put out every single day.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's you're talking about four or five newsletters on top of his videos that he does with us.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: All of those are on the AgBull website at AgBull.com.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well make sure and catch the show live streaming at 8 15 a.m.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: or 8 15 p.m.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: for Davis Michelson's show.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: He should have on a killer slate of guests yet again this week.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: I encourage you to go watch those on all platforms.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media, or a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.