Latest / Strictly Business / Shapiroworld by Strictly Business

Transcript

Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

0:00
You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
0:05
It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassfin
0:08
Securities in Johannesburg.
0:11
David, summer is in full swing, but that gives people like yourself, diligent
0:16
people, that before they make
0:17
an investment or a disinvestment, they read up about it.
0:22
And sometimes they write about it as well, like you do, which is a very good way of
0:26
getting your feelings out.
0:27
What have you read and written?
0:29
since we last spoke?
0:32
I've been focusing on SpaceX and SK Hynix.
0:38
Yeah.
0:38
And, Lindsay, the reason why is that, number one, especially SK
0:45
Hynix raised within a minute $26.5 billion.
0:51
No sweat.
0:52
This is an ADR, or to put it simply, it's a secondary listing on...
0:58
You know, on the NASDAQ.
1:01
Yes.
1:01
And people want to it.
1:04
Investors want to it.
1:06
For people that don't know, tell us about this company and why it has suddenly got
1:11
26.5 billion
1:13
in a millisecond.
1:15
Well, it's a South Korean company, but they produce memory chips
1:22
that places like NVIDIA need.
1:27
in order to store or to help what they call their accelerator chips.
1:32
You need to store the data that you're downloading in these chips to process
1:37
them.
1:38
And, you know, that's where they are.
1:40
They call them high with, oh, what's it, HPM, high bandwidth
1:47
memory chips.
1:48
So they, you know, together with Micron and Samsung, I think everybody had
1:53
ignored.
1:55
the need for memory chips.
1:57
You know, everybody was buying the accelerators or the chips.
2:03
I know we're now moving on to other levels of chips as well, but the chips, the
2:08
semiconductors needed
2:10
to make AI work.
2:13
And this has become an integral part which we'd forgotten about until we started to
2:18
see the numbers coming out from these
2:20
businesses.
2:21
Now, SK Hynix have now decided...
2:26
to move on to the NASDAQ, to attract further attention away from only the South
2:32
Korean
2:33
market, in other words, wider appeal.
2:34
And they will use the money that they can raise in order to expand their factories,
2:40
probably in the US.
2:41
So they're not just cashing in, David.
2:43
It's not like the dot-com bubble where a few chaps in camouflage pants and a little
2:49
bit of an
2:50
idea cash the money in and we never saw them again.
2:53
This is part of the AI ecosystem, and they're doing it because they need to keep
2:58
up, and therefore they need CapEx.
3:01
Yes, yes.
3:03
They need money, and they need to be competitive
3:10
against competition, which at the moment is Samsung or Micron, the U.S.
3:15
firm.
3:16
So they've got to keep their competitive edge going.
3:20
like all semiconductors or anybody that is involved in artificial intelligence.
3:26
I'm an accountant here trying to explain AI, which is a very bad story.
3:31
You do.
3:33
But it's all part of the offering that companies will
3:40
make or those companies that are going to benefit from AI.
3:44
And this is getting bigger and bigger.
3:48
It's not getting smaller.
3:50
And when you say my reading, you know, the more I read about it, the more I see how
3:55
this is actually
3:57
grabbing, you know, whatever investment interest there is.
4:03
It's at the moment, it's the only story in town.
4:07
And when I look at the market, it's okay.
4:11
It's either volatility in the oil price or AI.
4:14
I'm going for AI.
4:15
You know, you can worry about volatility in the.
4:18
in the oil price and the consequences of what that means, higher interest rates,
4:23
higher inflation.
4:24
But on the other hand, you've got this whole other market that I think is just
4:28
growing and growing.
4:30
And, yeah, we don't know where this is going.
4:33
What level is it growing, David?
4:35
Because I've had this before.
4:36
Because as I talked to you and Viv on Thursday, As I talk to you more and more
4:42
and I hear your
4:43
arguments more and more, particularly yours, incidentally, I become more and
4:47
more of a socialist because
4:51
I can see it benefiting the indices, the NASDAQ, the S&P, the Semiconductor Index
4:56
in Philadelphia, all of those
4:58
things.
4:58
And I think, yeah, OK, that's great.
5:00
So you're raising a lot of money from pension funds and institutions and some
5:04
retail investors and you put it into your company to keep
5:07
ahead of the next company and your stock is going up.
5:10
But where does that leave me?
5:11
Where does that leave Joe Soap?
5:15
I know I sound like Mamdani.
5:18
I sound like Mamdani.
5:20
But at some stage, something's got to give.
5:22
At some stage, the two worlds, the two spheres that I've just described have to
5:29
come together.
5:29
They always do, David.
5:31
They always come together.
5:33
There's some sort of equilibrium.
5:36
You can't hold back.
5:37
You know.
5:38
What I'm saying, this is progress, and it's going to take place whether you like
5:42
it or not.
5:42
You can't be a Luddite.
5:44
You can't withdraw from what's happening.
5:46
You can't withdraw the speed at which it's growing.
5:50
And that forces people like myself to say, I better learn about it.
5:54
I better learn how to express what it does and understand what it does.
6:00
You're not doing that because of you and your wife needing it or your family, the
6:04
rest of your family needing it.
6:06
You're doing it because you're an investor, David.
6:08
Be honest now.
6:09
Yes, yes, exactly that.
6:11
Exactly that.
6:12
So I've got to understand, I read the headlines.
6:15
My challenge is people, they entrust me with their savings.
6:22
It's as simple as that.
6:24
And they have a lot of faith in what I can do, which is a huge responsibility.
6:29
So I can't be frivolous about where I invest.
6:33
You know, if I start to read about artificial intelligence, if I read about
6:39
SK Hynix or read
6:40
about SpaceX, I better have some idea of what it is.
6:44
You know, I don't have to understand how Musk makes a rocket and how it gets up
6:49
there, but is there
6:51
any value in it?
6:52
Are they going to make money?
6:53
Where is this going?
6:54
You know, it's very important to just be ahead of it.
6:59
so that you can talk about and you can justify why you're putting clients money
7:03
into this area and and that's
7:06
what i do and it's it's funny enough you say it's occupying more and more of my
7:11
time and
7:13
um can you tell me ever stay abreast as you've just said that sorry to interrupt
7:17
you but as you've just said that it's occupying more and more
7:20
of my time and the enthusiasm with which you've grasped this new asset class has
7:25
come across very well on our
7:27
podcast but it also comes across to me, and I think to myself, is David Shapiro
7:33
falling
7:34
into the trap of falling in love with a position?
7:37
And I don't know if you've ever done that before to your detriment.
7:40
Have you ever fallen in love with something before?
7:43
No.
7:44
No.
7:44
You know, it's so funny that you say this, and I might be digressing a little.
7:49
Please do.
7:49
I've been a big Hermes fan, you know, about luxury fan.
7:53
Yeah.
7:54
And I've loved luxury.
7:58
I still maintain a certain delight for it and attraction to it.
8:03
But I've came back from the United States.
8:06
I've been back a week now.
8:08
And walking around New York and looking, I'm saying, hold on a sec, this is not
8:12
working for me anymore.
8:13
You know, I go into Ermi's store and I say, hold on.
8:19
Are people still going to buy the Birkin bag?
8:22
Are those madmen there, those, I've got to say, mad women who go out there and spend?
8:28
$10,000 just to have a collectible.
8:31
And suddenly I felt very kind of uncomfortable about it.
8:34
I'd say, this can't go on.
8:36
On the other hand, I'm not worried about Ferrari or I'm not worried about Rolex,
8:40
even though Rolex is a foundation, it's a
8:43
non-profit organization.
8:45
But there's certain pieces which will go.
8:48
And I just said, hold on, this is not performing.
8:51
This is not going to, you know, interest rates are going up.
8:55
People are not as enthusiastic as they were.
8:58
Maybe we should go somewhere else.
9:00
You know what I mean?
9:01
And I've been a big lover of the company, and I'm saying, it's time.
9:07
And the others as well, the other areas as well.
9:10
Sometimes you've got to wake up and say, okay, we've had enough, we've done fine,
9:14
let's go.
9:15
So I don't fall in love.
9:16
It's nothing more than a binary, what's a share?
9:19
It's nothing more than a binary code on a computer.
9:24
Lots of Norton ones.
9:27
Okay, so one day when you wake up and you say, well, this particular company that no
9:32
one had ever heard of a year ago has
9:34
now raised 26.5 billion in a minute.
9:37
I've just received, and also as an aside, but it goes side by side with what I've
9:43
just said.
9:44
company that is a respective financial analyst institution, I would say, comes
9:51
out and
9:52
says SpaceX is going to go to 800 at some stage.
9:55
How they get 800, I don't know.
9:57
You've read it, I haven't.
9:59
But when I see that, I think, wait a second, something's wrong here.
10:02
It needs to rein itself in.
10:05
And I'm not saying it's not going to be with us forever, because it will be.
10:08
But when it comes to Wall Street, it has to rein itself in at some stage when you
10:13
see that.
10:14
Those two examples of the South Korean company and SpaceX.
10:19
I love SpaceX, by the way, because SpaceX is the reason I'm talking to you now.
10:23
Because although on my roof, I've got a little square.
10:27
I don't know if you've ever seen a Starlink satellite dish that they give
10:31
you.
10:32
You buy it in a box, you stick it on the roof or somebody sticks it on the roof for
10:36
you.
10:36
And mine is a little bit close to a chimney.
10:40
So Starlink comes back and says, Today you have 11% obstruction
10:47
because of whatever it is.
10:49
But they say I'm only working at 89% capacity for the broadband, for the Wi-Fi
10:55
that they're
10:56
giving me.
10:56
It's an amazing product.
10:58
You stick it on the roof, you plug it in, press a few numbers, you get yourself a
11:03
password, and that's it.
11:05
No cables, no people coming around and saying this, that, and the other.
11:08
It's beautiful, David.
11:11
That is the beauty of SpaceX.
11:13
You know, that's what Musk is so excited about.
11:17
You don't need to build, you know, you don't need the elaborate technology that
11:23
goes with it.
11:24
You just do what you've done.
11:26
And it's so much easier to project or what's the word, to contact or make
11:32
contact with satellites than it is to send it over wires around the world or under
11:37
the sea cable or whatever happens.
11:39
and That's why when analysts started to come out with these mad target
11:46
prices, and I started to look and it was across the board, all the analysts from
11:52
these major
11:53
companies that you talk about are starting to say, you know, I've actually
12:00
toned it down a bit on SpaceX because having looked at a lot more of the analyst
12:06
reports
12:08
and what they say, It's probably what one could call moderate, a moderate buy.
12:13
I don't know, there must be 30 analysts.
12:15
In other words, but, their target price is somewhere in the
12:21
region of 220 to maybe 250.
12:25
That's the moderate.
12:26
That's in between.
12:27
The shares are 145.
12:30
Okay.
12:31
That's good.
12:31
So I'm saying, well, that's good.
12:33
I'm saying, okay, I can take a risk on that.
12:36
If these companies are going to go out and… push.
12:41
They go and speak to clients all the time.
12:43
Somewhere along the line, someone's going to buy it and even if it goes up 10-15%
12:49
from these levels, we're
12:50
winners and you watch it.
12:54
One of your things, your styling growth is actually an incredible positive for them.
13:01
On the other hand, they've also got they like Amazon Web Services or Azure.
13:08
They also provide cloud services.
13:11
And the third part of it is the launch, you know, sending satellites in.
13:16
And I mean, that's a big business as well of companies sending things into space.
13:22
Now, what kind of money are they going to make from it?
13:26
You know, that's where the mystery comes.
13:30
And that will determine where the valuation is.
13:33
So, but it's an exciting area.
13:36
I mean, we haven't got anything in space.
13:39
You can't get into space and yet it is such an incredibly attractive frontier.
13:45
Why?
13:46
Why is it so attractive?
13:48
Why would anyone want to go to space?
13:50
I saw a crypto billionaire on television.
13:53
No, do you know what I mean though?
13:54
Why is the expanding away from the planet Earth, which has been ruined, going into
14:00
space, why
14:01
is that so attractive?
14:03
No one is going to live on the moon.
14:05
No one's going to live on Mars.
14:06
I'm not talking about the moon.
14:07
I'm talking about your satellite that you're using.
14:10
That's space.
14:11
You know what I mean?
14:14
It's not up in the sky.
14:15
It's not an airplane flying from New York to Joburg.
14:18
It's space.
14:19
It's a satellite circling the Earth, and that's how you make contact.
14:23
Do you know the funny thing is, David, that there are 12,000 Starlink satellites
14:28
nearly whizzing around and more being
14:30
launched probably every single day.
14:32
You see these huge launches, these glamorous launches, but the little ones,
14:38
the ones that give me the Wi-Fi that
14:39
I've got now, are launching so regularly.
14:42
And if you sit outside, which I do, and I've got one of the clearest air, I've got
14:47
the least light pollution in the whole of
14:49
Europe where I live.
14:51
And I sit there and I think, that was a nice chat with David Shapiro, and look up
14:56
at the sky and there's this thing whizzing across
14:58
there.
14:59
And it doesn't flash or anything, but you can see it.
15:01
And then you think, oh, of course, I wonder what that was, some satellite, some
15:05
NASA satellite or something.
15:06
But then there's another one behind it going in a different direction.
15:09
And they're crisscrossing the sky, literally.
15:13
And I think, I'm glad because my 55 euros a month is paying
15:20
for those things to go across the sky.
15:21
And it's bringing Wi-Fi to me in a remote area.
15:26
It's not in South Africa at the moment, but it is a fantastic service.
15:30
I agree.
15:32
So, I mean, Musk is the only one that's going there.
15:35
You know, he's at the moment where you can invest in it.
15:38
they are.
15:39
attractions around it.
15:41
So this is not, you know, we're not buying Tesla or anything like this.
15:47
This is genuinely AI linked.
15:50
So I'm not getting too carried away with it.
15:53
I'm saying, okay, it's worth looking at.
15:56
Maybe we should just have a look in, you know, to these new businesses that are
16:01
coming.
16:02
That doesn't mean I've abandoned what we already have, you know, not by a long way.
16:07
Okay, answer me this question then.
16:09
This is another one to do with the falling in love thing, and you've got to be very
16:12
honest, David, as you usually are.
16:14
Okay.
16:16
Yeah.
16:17
Your father, your late father, who introduced you to stockbroking and then to
16:22
asset management, et
16:23
cetera, gives you a set of numbers.
16:26
You don't know what the company is.
16:28
You don't know anything about it.
16:29
They could be fictitious as far as you're concerned, but they've been given to you.
16:33
the numbers and the valuations, et cetera, would you buy SpaceX, given what you've
16:38
been, just the numbers?
16:40
This is the accountant in you now, not the emotional David Shapiro.
16:46
Probably not at this stage.
16:48
Probably not.
16:50
But I measure up.
16:52
The one thing is that I'm not a purist when it comes to that.
16:57
You know what I mean?
16:59
I'm willing to, I don't package myself.
17:03
and say, this is who I am.
17:04
I'm a value investor.
17:07
These are the issues, the criteria by which I make a share choice.
17:11
I try to put everything together.
17:13
You know where I did it successfully with, and you'll know the company ARM, A-R-M.
17:19
Yes.
17:20
Now, I told you, I think I've told you before, I read the book about ARM.
17:25
You know how it started at Cambridge and how many thousands of engineers they have
17:30
that check these.
17:31
without arm, you can't design a chip.
17:33
NVIDIA can't design a chip.
17:36
And so on.
17:37
And I said, and it came to the market.
17:39
I said, this is great.
17:40
You know, everybody needs this business.
17:42
You know, you can't design chips.
17:44
You can't do anything without them.
17:46
I think I had the same attitude with ASML as well.
17:49
You know, it's almost, they're in a very, very good position for certain, you know,
17:55
in certain areas of the market.
17:57
So when they came onto the market, I just took a small punt.
18:00
I just said, okay, take a small area and let's watch where it goes.
18:04
And I'm up on the small, it's only a small issue.
18:10
I'm up about, what, over 130 odd percent.
18:15
In what time space?
18:17
How long have they been listed?
18:18
Maybe a year, two years maximum.
18:21
Now, why I say that, and I'm not bragging, I don't want to talk, but it was one of
18:26
those issues where...
18:29
Things didn't make sense.
18:30
You know, the metrics didn't make sense, but the story did.
18:35
And they're still ridiculous.
18:37
They're still ridiculously priced.
18:39
I mean, in terms of their earnings, I think they're at, you know, multi-hundred
18:43
multiples.
18:44
But I'm not selling them simply because of the, you know, the way that they are
18:50
moving with the market.
18:51
But I watch them carefully because the volatility there is incredible.
18:55
But all I'm trying to illustrate is that Sometimes, you know, you can bend.
19:03
You don't have to wrap yourself up in terms of, this is why I'm not doing this.
19:08
Sometimes, yeah.
19:09
And I feel the same way now about SpaceX and SK Hynix.
19:14
I haven't got space for...
19:18
both of them, you know, in portfolios, but maybe one of them.
19:22
And I'm not sure which one I'd go for.
19:23
Don't wait too long.
19:24
I mean, below the listing.
19:26
I mean, the below the listing price argument is very good for SpaceX because
19:30
the people that were gagging to get it at the listing
19:33
price and felt stupid when it rose 20% or whatever the
19:40
post-listing.
19:41
uh spike was when it comes back they're now loading up so you've got a little bit
19:45
of a buffer there you've got a little bit of a
19:47
foundation because the people are still loading up with the the allocation that
19:53
they wanted in the first
19:54
place but i i don't know do you remember when nvidia went down to below 100 you
20:01
must have
20:01
been uh knocking your knees together But look at it now.
20:08
Yeah, I know.
20:10
I still think it's on the basis of where they're going and revenues and profits,
20:17
they're actually very cheap relative to the market.
20:21
I think a lot of the hyperscalers, to use a word to describe all the big companies
20:26
offering cloud
20:28
services and so on, they're not outrageously expensive.
20:34
And anyway, we need improved sentiment, which hopefully will come.
20:41
after the summer, September, around about there.
20:45
But at the moment, we're worried about Mr.
20:48
Trump.
20:51
He's influencing the market in some way or not.
20:53
Now he says they're going to, I don't know, control the straits of Hormuz.
20:57
Tomorrow they're bombing.
20:58
This one's, you know, then there's a retaliation by the Iranians.
21:03
And so we go.
21:03
Even by his own standards, he's gone a bit loopy over the weekend.
21:07
I don't know.
21:08
I mean, I obsess over him because I receive this email every single morning
21:14
from a woman in America
21:15
who's obsessed over him and is making a fortune out of it.
21:18
But her emails are so fantastic.
21:20
I've sent you a couple of them.
21:22
And but even by his lofty standards of lunacy, this man went completely bonkers
21:29
over the weekend.
21:30
I don't know what he was going on about, but whatever it was, he's.
21:35
Someone should be going in there with white coats and saying, come along now,
21:40
come and have a McDonald's and we'll sit down and talk.
21:43
I have to say this to you.
21:44
I mean, that's the problem with American politics.
21:47
Sadly, Lindsey Graham died under really tough circumstances.
21:52
He had a heart attack.
21:53
I mean, how tough can it get?
21:54
Everybody has a heart attack occasionally.
21:57
But you know what I mean, I'm not being disrespectful.
21:59
But before you go on to what you were going to say.
22:03
Lindsey Graham in 2015, 2016, you should look at his social media, rants against
22:09
Trump, and he
22:10
turned tail.
22:11
As soon as Trump said, you'll be this, this, and this if you stick with me, and
22:14
then they're playing golf.
22:16
He was a con man, just like Trump.
22:19
But go on.
22:21
Every politician's like that.
22:22
Rubio was no different.
22:24
Rubio also challenged.
22:26
He was one of the presidential hopefuls for this election that's just passed.
22:33
He wanted to stand for the Republican Party, insult to Trump, but now he's
22:37
favored to take over from Trump.
22:40
But the other thing is, I mean, this is when you've got old politicians.
22:45
Lindsey Graham goes.
22:46
He's one of the Republican senators.
22:49
And then Mitch McConnell was absent.
22:51
He was MIA.
22:52
He fell and was unconscious for a long time.
22:55
I don't know.
22:56
He's close to 80.
22:56
He's another Republican senator.
22:58
So you've got two out.
23:00
You go to a vote.
23:01
Now you're in trouble because the margin in the Senate is not exactly that great.
23:08
I interrupted you.
23:09
You were going to say something.
23:10
You were talking about Trump, and then I interrupted you when you mentioned Lindsey
23:14
Graham, the turncoat.
23:16
Well, I'm saying these are the problems when you have very old people in
23:20
Parliament or in
23:22
government.
23:23
Or in asset management.
23:24
They can just suddenly pop out.
23:25
You know what I mean?
23:28
One day they're there, the next day they're not.
23:32
Yeah, but anyway, it is madness.
23:34
And there will be more madness between now and the first week in November, which is
23:40
when the elections are.
23:42
And you had the other thing with Planter, you know, with the Democratic Party as
23:47
well.
23:47
You know, the senator, he was going to challenge, I think, Susan Collins in
23:52
Maine, you know, the Republican
23:54
senator there.
23:55
This was also one that they wanted to grab.
23:57
They didn't check his background at all.
23:59
He just had a very nice message and he had to withdraw.
24:02
I mean, he was endorsed by Elizabeth Warren.
24:05
He was endorsed by Bernie Sanders, by Chuck Schumer, all the Democrats who
24:10
thought this was a great voice.
24:11
I mean...
24:12
You know, he's not for rape.
24:16
He had to withdraw because of his conduct with women.
24:19
It's just, anyway, whatever.
24:22
So, you know, all the parties are in a state of chaos.
24:28
I'm trying to find a commentator, by the way, because you said it was going to be a
24:31
huge influence on the markets in the future.
24:34
I don't know whether it will be between now and the interim elections, the
24:38
midterms, and I'm doing
24:41
so.
24:42
But we've got to get a balanced view.
24:44
I don't want to get a Republican or a Democrat or some loony independent.
24:48
I'm trying to find someone.
24:50
But it will be an influence.
24:52
Meanwhile, the influence on the markets has suddenly picked up since we've been
24:56
speaking because the oil price is now up nearly
24:59
5%.
25:03
It's something that can't wind out of the system for at least six months, even if
25:08
they
25:10
post a picture of Trump.
25:12
trying to shake the hand of the leader of Iran on television, and the oil price
25:16
falls back down to 65, 70.
25:18
The fact is that it takes a while to work out of the system when it comes to
25:22
inflation, et cetera.
25:24
And we've now got the US 10-year treasury yield at 4.60%, which is high, David.
25:30
It was 3.99%.
25:33
So what is 60 divided by 400?
25:38
I don't know what it is, but it's a big percentage move in the cost of money in
25:41
the United States, the biggest economy in the world.
25:45
No, don't underestimate what that's doing to markets, you know, what the threat of
25:51
inflation is doing.
25:53
It's still a very big influence and it's a worrying influence because if rates remain
25:58
this high, it's going to cost
26:01
the Republicans a lot of votes.
26:03
People are very conscious of this.
26:06
Our housing market is under pressure.
26:09
That's why I'm saying you've got that on the one hand.
26:11
And on the other hand, you've got what we've been talking about first is AI.
26:15
You know, you've got these two completely different areas of the market
26:22
causing you.
26:23
I mean, at odds, but it's still very much on the other.
26:28
It's still very much an AI driven market, very concentrated.
26:33
But as far as the rest of the market's concerned, it is going to have an
26:37
influence on, you know,
26:40
certainly on politics.
26:43
Yeah, anyway, the markets are, you know, they come back a little bit when there's a
26:48
bit of a scuffle in the
26:50
straight of all moves.
26:51
And everyone says, oh, you know, so what?
26:54
We're going to buy.
26:56
And quite rightly so.
26:58
But anyway, David.
27:00
As you are, is what you're saying when it comes to markets.
27:04
Yes.
27:05
Other than looking at those two.
27:06
So, okay, do we have a go at it or not?
27:07
I'm looking now as we talk.
27:08
You see SpaceX has come down by 4.71%.
27:10
It's now at 138.
27:12
It's getting into that territory.
27:13
And the listing price was what, 155?
27:17
135.
27:17
135.
27:20
Oh, 135.
27:25
Okay.
27:28
So, yes, there are going to be people who are going to sell.
27:31
Are you getting itchy fingers, David?
27:34
Yeah, I'm looking at it.
27:36
I'm saying, yeah, okay.
27:38
Well, let's wait.
27:39
You don't have to be impatient.
27:41
Just wait.
27:43
But it's heading towards an attractive area.
27:48
S&P, here it says on CNBC, S&P 500 drops to session low.
27:53
Oil gains after Trump reimposes straight-for-muse blockade.
27:59
And Trump says US should be reimbursed for guarding the straightforward moves.
28:06
How's that going to work, Donald?
28:09
He's a nut job.
28:11
He's a nut job.
28:11
He's loopy.
28:12
It just happens on a day-to-day basis.
28:17
One day, it's like a card game.
28:21
It's like playing Monopoly.
28:23
You pick up a chance card or you pick up, what is this, a community chest.
28:28
loitering with intent, you know, go to jail or something like this.
28:33
It's nothing more than playing Monopoly.
28:35
It's mad.
28:36
When you started in the business, if I read you the headlines on CNBC's website,
28:42
which didn't exist in those days, of
28:43
course, because there weren't websites, but here are the top headlines.
28:48
TSMC, the world's largest contract chip maker, reports 68% surge in June revenue.
28:55
Next one.
28:56
Big banks poised to report booming revenue propelled by SpaceX IPO and Iran war
29:02
volatility.
29:03
Well, they should be ashamed of themselves.
29:05
SK Hynix, South Korean shares clock worst day, sinking over 15%
29:12
after stellar Nasdaq debut.
29:15
So they went shooting up.
29:16
They've come crashing down again.
29:19
And then you look at the old economy.
29:21
VW CEO says 50,000 more job cuts may be needed to close the competitive gap.
29:28
So 100,000 plus another 50,000, 150,000 souls out of work.
29:33
And they're not going to go from...
29:35
fitting wheels onto a car to something in AI, David.
29:40
Those jobs are gone.
29:43
No, You're right.
29:44
You know, that's a different economy.
29:47
They are gone.
29:48
You know, that's the other economy we're talking about.
29:52
So, and those are the worries, you know.
29:54
But that's the consequence, if you want to say it.
29:58
I'm not saying directly, but of high interest.
30:01
Lindsay, we've had six and a half years.
30:05
of very, very difficult markets.
30:08
You know, if we go back to COVID and the consequences of COVID, not only COVID, the
30:13
wars that came out of it
30:15
is not directly responsible to COVID, but the Gaza War, the Russian invasion of
30:21
Ukraine.
30:22
If we look at Powell's
30:28
policy on inflation, I'm trying to think of the word, you know, that it was
30:32
transitory.
30:33
Transitory inflation.
30:34
Yeah, and his withdrawal from that suddenly increased.
30:40
If it wasn't for ChatGPT being launched late in November 22 or November
30:46
22, we wouldn't have a program.
30:50
We would have still been suffering as a result of all of this.
30:54
That's the only thing that saved us, the amount of money that's being spent on that
31:01
and that side of the market.
31:03
So I'm saying we would have been in, we would have still been suffering from very
31:07
high rates as we've seen.
31:09
And I mean, even Walsh is now, you know, he's appointed the former Bank of
31:16
England governor to be on his board or to help him with working out what's, you
31:21
know, the data that they get.
31:22
What did he call it?
31:23
Those task forces.
31:24
Yes.
31:26
And one other person who I'm not familiar with.
31:29
But, you know, to look at...
31:32
Inflation.
31:33
Why has inflation been so high for five years?
31:36
We can't get it down despite our efforts.
31:39
It wasn't Mervyn King, was it?
31:40
It wasn't Mervyn King that's been appointed.
31:43
I don't know, one of them.
31:45
So, you know, those are the kind of markets we would have had if it wasn't for
31:52
AI.
31:53
That's how tough things are.
31:55
Which makes me feel that we're very vulnerable because you're just saying
31:59
we've been saved by AI and if AI gets too big for its boots, it's
32:02
like Erling Haaland, you know, he got too big for his boots.
32:04
He had a terrible game the other night.
32:07
People have found him out.
32:08
The headlines are Haaland this.
32:10
I saw this thing in the New Yorker magazine about Haaland and I thought to
32:15
myself, this is exactly like the markets when the
32:17
headlines come.
32:19
non-stop about somebody that they've never heard of.
32:22
In New York, if you'd have said Erling Haaland to someone six months ago, they
32:26
would have said, sorry, what?
32:27
They wouldn't have known we're Norweigers.
32:29
Precisely.
32:30
And now it's Haaland, He's this huge cult figure because he's got
32:37
a company, a tax-efficient company registered in Luxembourg called Pillage.
32:47
and he eats 6 000 calories a day and he after every training session he drinks a
32:51
liter of raw milk and all that sort of thing so he's
32:54
a cult figure but of course people love to bring cult figures down and exactly
32:59
exactly like ai but let's not talk about that anymore
33:01
david um there was one thing i was going to say but i can't remember what it was oh
33:05
yes the word hate i don't use the word
33:08
hate because I'm more mature than I was and I don't i
33:15
don't hate anybody i don't even hate trump getting close with infantino i'm very
33:20
getting very close with
33:22
gianni infantino with the way he's going to say they're expanding now their fifa is
33:27
sitting down and
33:28
trying to expand the world cup from 48 to 64 clubs eventually it'll be 250 clubs
33:36
countries rather in other words you just got to turn up it's unbelievable it's like
33:40
like the UEFA Champions League.
33:41
It's a money-making...
33:43
milking industry and i dislike it yeah no i agree with you first of all
33:50
what it does to these poor players now i mean can you imagine um the teams that are
33:56
now in the
33:57
semi-finals within a month or so they go back to their league yeah you know to
34:02
league games which are
34:04
two a week now because of these various competitions they can't that you're going
34:09
to have injuries you know
34:11
So you're going to find them playing at subpar.
34:15
They can't keep it up for that long.
34:18
And it's becoming ridiculous.
34:21
Even the World Cup now, it's gone into, I think it's the first five-week World Cup
34:25
we've had.
34:26
Or is it six weeks, whatever it is.
34:28
I mean, it's crazy.
34:29
I love it.
34:30
I've loved it.
34:31
But I must admit that it's...
34:34
It's enough.
34:35
You know, we're now looking forward to the next season and these chaps are going to
34:39
be finished.
34:40
And I mean, if I look at, I'm an Arsenal supporter, I think within the semifinals,
34:46
you know, they've
34:47
got, I don't know, they must have six, eight of the top players all involved in
34:52
the semifinals and then they go into the
34:53
league within a month's time.
34:57
Luckily, I'm an Ipsos supporter and the only...
35:00
Few Ipswich players that were there got knocked out before the knockout round.
35:05
So anyway, I'm very glad about that.
35:06
But David, it was a very interesting weekend of football.
35:10
And there's something strange about England, my team, of course.
35:14
They didn't dazzle.
35:17
They have the moments of brilliance.
35:19
Jude Bellingham personifies that.
35:22
But, you know, they're working hard.
35:26
They've got this spirit.
35:27
Thomas Tuchel, I believe, is...
35:30
He's not a genius, but he's certainly a level above someone like Gareth Southgate,
35:35
the previous manager.
35:36
I think he's really, really good.
35:38
And I think they might have a chance if Messi doesn't turn up on Wednesday night.
35:44
They haven't turned up.
35:47
Argentina haven't turned up yet.
35:50
I don't think they've been great.
35:52
No, they've had Alvarez and Messi and a couple of others up front.
35:57
defensively, they're terrible.
35:58
And if England can exploit that, then I think they'll sail through to play Spain
36:02
or France.
36:04
You can't leave it to 10 minutes to beat Egypt.
36:07
You can't leave it like that.
36:09
You're quite right.
36:10
It should never have been like that.
36:12
And, you know, they got away because I think Egypt were just flat.
36:17
They've had enough.
36:17
They just couldn't move anymore.
36:19
But still, they should have put the game away in the first few minutes.
36:23
Who's going to win the World Cup, David?
36:24
I don't know.
36:27
I don't know.
36:27
It could be France.
36:29
I think they've just got the reserves.
36:32
They're very slick.
36:34
I want England to win.
36:35
I know.
36:36
I really do.
36:38
I would love it to go back to England and give them something to sing about again.
36:43
But they just don't look dynamic.
36:45
I don't know.
36:47
They keep on winning.
36:48
They keep winning.
36:50
That's fine.
36:51
But I don't know.
36:53
In fact, none of the teams have been exceptional.
36:56
I must say, I think France is the only one who can turn it on.
37:00
It's been fun.
37:03
It's been fun.
37:05
It has been fun.
37:06
And by the time we next speak, we'll know who the finalists are because the
37:10
semifinals are on Tuesday and Wednesday night.
37:12
It's France versus Spain tomorrow, and it's England versus Argentina on
37:16
Wednesday.
37:17
David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities, and that was Shapiro World.
37:21
The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams.
37:25
and various contributors and do not reflect the policy, position, or opinion
37:29
of any other agency, organization,
37:32
employer, or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.
37:37
Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other
37:42
entity other than the speaker or the author.
37:44
And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to
37:49
change, revision, and
37:51
rethinking at any time.
37:52
Please do not hold us to them.
37:54
in perpetuity.