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Ceasefire Is a Trap

Iran’s survival in the conflict has turned the ceasefire into a ticking time bomb, warns military strategist Robert Pape. Far from resolving tensions, the truce is fueling renewed escalation as Iran uses its endurance to boost regional leverage, Israel pushes back against the settlement, and the U.S. struggles to secure shipping without triggering a wider war. Recent drone strikes, plummeting Hormuz traffic, and soaring insurance premiums aren’t accidents—they’re warning signs of a fragile, unstable peace. Pape’s four key indicators—Hormuz shipping, war-risk costs, Israeli border tensions…

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