Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - A Warning to All Investors + Stock Market News 21 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - A Warning to All Investors + Stock Market News 21 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome back from the long Easter weekend.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, the markets did not wake up today and thought it's a glorious day.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Let's make everything green.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So, my well, my duty here is to walk you through the five things that will help you make this week into something useful, in order to the bloodbath that it's starting out, as I'm, of course, joined by Winston, who looks very concerned, doesn't he really there?
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: He is in full glory.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: But, in all seriousness, I'm going to walk you through.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Why are chip stocks falling again today?
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Why is the dollar or is the dollar collapsing?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Some people are saying that and why is there actually very little cash to buy?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And, number four, why many retail investors, including some of you, are about to get hurt very badly and how to avoid that.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: And what's Trump doing to actually keep the markets down, because it's extraordinary the efforts they're going to here.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: It could still go green.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: That's the kind of optimism that we love you for.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, of course, it is entirely possible.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Everything could get flipped entirely on its head right now.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So is that going to be useful for you to understand those five things?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Do you think you'd be better informed than every other investor out there?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I certainly think so.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: It's the sort of thing that I think everybody needs to understand right now.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: If you think yes, then put a one in the chat so we know that you're alive, that you're kicking and that you're not in the sort of slumber that Winston is in right now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: 1am here in New Zealand.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Brilliant George.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for the first one there, my friend.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: You win a gold Easter star and a bunny.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So brilliant, okay.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So I think all the ones are all in here.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Given that, you would find that useful.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: You know what we'd find way more useful Actually knowing what stocks to buy this week.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I made a list today of about 30 stocks to buy.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I could tell you a couple of them, but not the whole list, obviously, and that's me being fairly bearish.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So there is always something to buy and it's simply based on very simple rules, three rules that every successful investor in the market will agree on.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Simply, and you talk to any major investor of the last 20, 30, 40, 50 years, they'll go, look at the rules and they go yeah, yeah, that's what I do, right, and I'll give you those rules completely free.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Link is down below in the description at felixfrensorg slash, get free and you'll do two things you protect your portfolio, which seems rather important today, and you'll stop missing out on the golden nuggets that we get thrown at that get thrown at us every week because they're always new golden nuggets.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So if you're going to go and get free, retire sooner, retire faster, make more money, then put an F for free in the chat and head over to felixfrensorg.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Slash, get free, more money, then put an F for free in the chat and head over to phoenixtransitorg Get free.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Bit of a personal update.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: We've got kittens.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: They were born yesterday.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: We've got Easter kittens.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: We were expecting three or four.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Now, if you can count, how many kittens do you count?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Let me know out there and you will win something else.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: George, they're brilliant guys.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: This is Sabrina.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: This is a cat we adopted a couple of weeks back and cats seem to compound rather quickly.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: You adopt a male and a female cat and you don't watch them for a few days and you see what happens.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, fantastic guys.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Five, six, five, five, five, five, five, six, seven.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Oh dear, no, it is.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: It is, I guess, a lot of sixes here.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: How do you get to six?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's do some counting together here.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: That's kitten number one, right, the ginger one there.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Then there is this one here, sort of a bit of a tabby one.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: This one looks like a colorful tiger.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: That's number three.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: That's definitely number four, and then I sense that that is another snout.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So it's definitely number five.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So you guys, some of you guys, are thinking that that might be number six.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Right, but that's actually the same, the same little being so, there are five kittens in total.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Well done, whoever you got that right.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Um, I'll be in the next video.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I'll include a couple of little videos and I might keep that up if you guys enjoy that.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: They are just very, very, very, very cute and it's probably more pretty than looking at the Nvidia stock chart right now.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Right, chip stocks are falling hard.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Avert your eyes if you don't want to see the heat map.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So it comes with a health warning.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Nowadays, tesla down 4.3%.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Honestly, reporting earnings tomorrow, if your earnings pre-announcement says we'll provide an update on the plans for the company, it's rarely a positive statement.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's sort of saying they've never done that, by the way, it's sort of saying like we're a bit freaked out.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Amazon down 2%.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Nvidia down 3%.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Apple down 2.6%.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Most chip stocks are bleeding fairly heavily here.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Netflix is in the green, which I thankfully own some of, and Coca-Cola is green, which is on my buy list for today, and that's, of course, not a buy recommendation, and that's pretty much it.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: So why is Netflix and, sorry, nvidia dragging down the whole market once again?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Um well, huawei, chinese tech company chip manufacturer, uh, amongst other things, they have announced they're going to launch a new chip I can't remember what it's called something starting with nine, doesn't really matter and and basically they're looking to pinch nvidia's h20 china market share and and china is, um, what is it?
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: 12, 15 percent of revenue, or something.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: It's pretty significant.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So this unfortunate downward channel here that we've got going on, can I draw a?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: This kind of downward channel that we've got here is still very, very, very, very much alive and kicking, and I made a video on NVIDIA a couple of days ago.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Here comes the.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I told you so.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: No, in all seriousness, it's not that I make this stuff up, it's not that I invent this, it's not that I'm right, it's just like the rules are the rules and every successful investor and every successful trader follows the rules.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So when people break the rules, I'm like guys, but these are the rules, let me give them to you for free.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: And then people go no, no, no, I'm going to buy the dip Now.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: If I had been in Nvidia and I wasn't, and it dropped below 100, I would sell.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: That would be me.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying you never should, but that's what I would do because it's pretty bad.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: In fact, if it had recovered towards sort of 110, I would still have sold into the strength, because this looks pretty hideous and the story now is not a pretty one.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: They're also talking about tracking down every customer, every buyer, and seeing where those chips go.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: This isn't going to be great for NVIDIA.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So the momentum here, the sentiment is, is now ugly.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: The only support we've got well, that was a line up there.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That was a 200 day moving average line.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: That's now here.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: We're way below that.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Right the support you can see that in green on the chart here.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Where market is meant to buy, the hedge funds are meant to buy, that's at 100, free market at 98.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So of course it could still close.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Above 100 could do.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: But you see, we've hit that once, we've hit that twice.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: At some point you exhaust the patience even of the support line.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: To me it looks like one of those moments.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So, um, looking a bit, looking a bit ugly, and I'm not saying some of you guys putting in, you bought it whatever, uh, it doesn't matter.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, it's, it's all good, it's all good.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: You know, it's your, it's your money, it's your process.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: All I'm saying is that the professional money is leaving the building.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying Right now.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So not, not pretty.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean there aren't good opportunities out there.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: There are.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Let's hit up with the bad news here first, and then we'll cheer ourselves up a little bit with kittens.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: The dollar has done a death cross yet again, which is a good thing.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Well, the dollar falling isn't in itself terrible, but last time that was a death cross.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Here we dropped down pretty hard.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: That was a death cross.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Here we dropped down pretty hard.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: That was a death cross, dropped down pretty hard.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: In fairness, the last couple we didn't drop that much.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So maybe we're just here, but again we're consolidating downwards.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: So not pretty, the dollar losing quite a, quite a bit of value there against major currency baskets.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I think the euro is up something like 12 percent or so.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just the madness that's going on in Washington at the moment, in a way, it doesn't make a lot of sense because the Europeans and everyone are cutting interest rates.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: The Americans aren't yet.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: But it's just a sentiment issue.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Now, for big tech companies, a weak dollar can actually be quite a good thing.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So your Netflixes, your Microsofts and so on, they make a lot of money in you know monkey monies sort of euros and yens and sterling and that kind of thing and they convert that back into the good old dollar so they get more dollar for their European buck and that can actually be somewhat useful for those guys.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, right.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So a lot of people are then saying but wait, wait, felix, there is $7 trillion on the sidelines.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: And I've fallen for that line.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I will put my hand up and say I thought, yes, that's a lot of money.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: $7 trillion sits in T with a T trillion, not sort of Biden trillions, real trillions.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: And is it a lot of money?
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Anybody think it's a lot of money.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Well, yes and no.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: So it sounds like a lot of money, but if you look at it relative to the S&P size, it's this line here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Relative to the S&P, is the money on the sidelines a lot?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Give you a bit of an example 2008,.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: A lot of money left the market into cash, right, like that was a lot.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: This year was COVID.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: This was dot com, a lot of money on the sidelines.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Eventually, we got a recovery.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: We're here right now.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: It's not a lot of money, sorry to say, guys, $7 trillion isn't what it used to be, and it's just because the Fed printed about that much money during COVID, right, so it's not as much money as you'd like.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: It isn't going to move the market as much as you think, even if some of that pours back in.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Now they call this the bro bit at Bank of America.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: This is, of course, the finance bros who are saying it's the bottom of the market.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Leverage into it.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Buy leveraged ETFs.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, as I saw this chart and this is a health warning, this should be taught to every 12 year old For some reason, retail that's you and me bought the largest amount of leveraged ETFs ever, like vastly the largest amount.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: What's the problem with that If this market dips some more and we ran through that example a couple of days back.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: But let me do it one more time this is the most important thing in the world.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Please write it down.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So say, your stock it starts at.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: So it starts.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe I can zoom in a bit for you.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, so it starts at $100.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, the ETF also worth $100, just to make our maths really easy.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Now the stock drops 10%, okay, so now you've got $90 worth of stocks.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Your ETF and let's say, this is one of those triple leveraged ETFs that makes you rich where you go to the moon, right, also goes down 10%, but of course it goes down three times 10%, right, so that is 30% down.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: So now you've got $70.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: You with me so far, you with me so far.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Put a triple X in the chat, and I know that you're actually listening.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So that's so far, so good.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Now, what happens next?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Well, say, the market recovers.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: So the market goes back up 10%.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So now, 10% of 90 is $9.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So you go back to $99.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: 10% of 90 is $9.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: So you go back to $99.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: You're almost made whole, right, all good.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Your triple leveraged ETF that's going to make you rich by Friday.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Well, that also goes up 10%, but of course it goes up in reality, thanks for the triple Xs, 30%.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So what is 30% of 70?
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: It's $21.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: It's sort of about the most complicated maths I can do $21 plus 70 is $91.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Can you see the problem?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Leverage is at 91.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Unleverage is at 99.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: What the heck happened to my $8?
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: That is one dip and recovery to pretty much where it started.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Run this through with, say, a very volatile market.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: This is this one, like this one.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe you get five dips in a row.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Where do you think your leverage etf is going to end up?
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Right, bankruptcy court?
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Right, just don't freaking buy leveraged etfs for longterm.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: It is the surest way to get really, really poor, unless you know the market's going to go up in a straight line, in which case you should probably use options Cheaper, more leverage, less downside, if you know how to do it.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Is that clear?
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Is that clear?
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Please take a screenshot of this and share it with somebody else, because this is going to make seriously a lot of people very, very, very, very unhappy in the coming months because this market isn't going to go up in a straight line.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: That's at least my reading of this.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Jeff, you're in here, brilliant.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: My friend Trade Vision should be back now.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Tang here.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Can we give him a great big round of applause?
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: He's my co-founder on Trade Vision.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: He's the one who does all the work.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I just say, wouldn't it be nice if we could display this?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Jeff, could we do this by next Friday?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: And does a tremendous job.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I appreciate that, jeff.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much for being here.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: So, now that I've told you don't buy leveraged ETFs, so what's a leveraged ETF, says Steve, anything that is 2Xx, 3x, you know, whatever x?
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: See all the hearts there, jeff, they're for you.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Um, basically moves more.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So if you're just buying an innocent etf, it isn't gonna, it isn't gonna trick you into being leveraged.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: It'll say pretty clearly something like a 2x, 3x, leveraged, something on on the tin, in which case you're going to want to run right.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, trade vision is back up.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, jeff is the master of.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: He has a whole team there, but he's definitely the kingpin of that world.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Have you guys noticed?
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you about that in a second.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Actually, give me a second.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: So what are you going to buy if you're not going to buy the Leavish ETFs?
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Good stocks right now.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: If you must buy the freaking index Not the greatest thing to do in the world, but buy good stocks how do you find good stocks?
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: You simply follow the rules that everybody else follows.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I mean not the 99%, but the 1% who actually make money.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: So head over to phoenixfrontalogscom, get free, learn the rules.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Who's going to learn the rules?
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: If you're going to learn the rules, put an R in the chat for rules, absolutely Holden, and the link is also.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I'll put it in the chat here for you.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: My friends, there we go, there we go, and I'll pin it to the thing as well, so it's easy for you to find Three times inverse.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's all the same thing.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: If it's leveraged, it's very likely going to make you very poor.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Now donald j trump has been been active.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: The last um today, really, um, I'm not gonna go through them all, but he's basically saying lots of things that um are going to keep this market on its toes.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: So you guys that put the r's in there, like Florham and Margaret and Lawrence and Brian and Richard and Rene, I like the uh, stephen and Vibrosis and Episys that's an unusual name Um, sex souffle Really, that's your screen name, seriously.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Um, well, you did write rules.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: So, okay, okay, I don't want to know your rules.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: So this is what's keeping the market on its.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: On its, you know, on the edge.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: The vix, the fear index, right now sits at back at 32, so it's it's jumped back up over 30, which isn't good.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: It seems to be actually bouncing off the 20-day moving average line.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: It's almost every time it hits the 20, donald goes on his truth social and goes let me write something.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I'm long, vix, something like that, I don't know.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's kind of not good and this concerns me, that we've been up here for so long and it makes the long-term outlook worse.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: That's really what it is.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I think there's still some short-term opportunities, but this is definitely not a good one.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Now, what about the rules?
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: The rules?
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: You can find them at felixfriendsorg slash.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Get free.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: That way I don't have to run through the same rules about 15 times.