Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Golds 22% CRASH Just CONFIRMED Bitcoins next move?! | EP 1466

Transcript

Golds 22% CRASH Just CONFIRMED Bitcoins next move?! | EP 1466 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:02
  Gold's dumped over 20% in the past three weeks, and Bitcoin
• 0:07
  has been grinding higher. Gold's market cap hit a peak of
• 0:10
  $36 trillion only months ago, but so far, since January, $7
• 0:16
  trillion has now flowed out of gold.
• 0:20
  And everybody is now asking the same question, where did that
• 0:25
  capital go and what are the reasons that capital is flowing
• 0:29
  out of gold? Well, since the war began in the
• 0:32
  Middle East, gold's down currently 17%, SP 500's down 8%,
• 0:38
  and Bitcoin is actually up 7%. And for over 17 years, every
• 0:43
  time that we've seen a huge gold rally, capital would flow out of
• 0:48
  gold and into Bitcoin or out of precious metals and into
• 0:51
  Bitcoin. So the question I'm asking is,
• 0:55
  is this the beginning of capital rotating out of gold and into
• 0:59
  Bitcoin at the exact bottom of Bitcoins bear market?
• 1:03
  Well, I guess to be clear, we don't know if it's the bottom
• 1:06
  yet, but it does feel a little bottomy.
• 1:09
  OK, I know the algos are trading on sentiment and currently, I
• 1:14
  don't know, I'm, I'm just an optimist here guys.
• 1:16
  I'm like I, I keep having these arguments with Nico.
• 1:19
  I'm like, dude, we bought him. He's still like, we need a
• 1:22
  capitulation move anyways, Anyways, enough for that.
• 1:24
  Let's get into the story cuz it is very interesting what's going
• 1:27
  on currently with gold. If you watch the gold price over
• 1:31
  the weekend and, and actually before I get into what's
• 1:33
  actually happening with the gold price, let's talk about why we
• 1:37
  talk about the gold price. Obviously gold is our big
• 1:41
  cousin, our Big Brother in the hard money game.
• 1:44
  Gold is the quote UN quote reserve neutral store of value.
• 1:49
  In the face of global uncertainty, in the face of war,
• 1:52
  you would think that people would want to stack gold,
• 1:56
  especially when you're seeing what's going on with oil.
• 1:59
  With the recent inflation numbers, things are getting kind
• 2:02
  of crazy. But currently, gold's not really
• 2:07
  acting how we all would expect it to act in the face of the war
• 2:12
  in the Middle East. And Bitcoin is, and this is
• 2:16
  where the big question is happening.
• 2:18
  Has the baton been passed to Bitcoin currently?
• 2:21
  Are people starting to see Bitcoin as their neutral reserve
• 2:25
  store value asset that we believe and know it is to be?
• 2:29
  That is the big question right now.
• 2:31
  There is a good narrative. There is a, there's a, there's a
• 2:34
  good point to be made that maybe the capital is rotating from
• 2:37
  gold into Bitcoin. There might be a larger story at
• 2:40
  play right now. So that's the context here.
• 2:43
  I know you guys troll me in the chat that we're now simply gold
• 2:46
  because we've been talking about gold or simply Fiat because
• 2:49
  we've been talking about the Fiat price and what's going on
• 2:51
  in Tradfi, etcetera, etcetera. No, we are still simply Bitcoin,
• 2:56
  but we are a news show and we have to cover what goes on in
• 2:59
  all the markets because Bitcoin no longer lives in a vacuum.
• 3:03
  It is a global macro asset now, as we've seen it in the last
• 3:07
  year or so, ever since Trump went so pro Bitcoin, ever since
• 3:11
  BlackRock announced an ETF, Bitcoin is in the mainstream
• 3:15
  consciousness. It is being treated as a macro
• 3:18
  asset. It's no longer just, you know,
• 3:20
  reserved to the dark corners of the Internet.
• 3:23
  It's in the highest rooms, the highest conversations right now.
• 3:27
  It's still early in that process, but it's in the room
• 3:30
  now. We are in the room now.
• 3:32
  We are part of the conversation. And most people just still are
• 3:36
  wholly unaware of what Bitcoin is, what it's going to do.
• 3:40
  What does trajectory is going to happen in the next couple of
• 3:43
  years. It's very interesting time.
• 3:45
  So enough of that. Let let's get into the recent
• 3:47
  story. So there's an interesting
• 3:49
  headline here from Yahoo Finance and it goes BlackRock infidelity
• 3:53
  by five, $400 million in Bitcoin as gold enters a bear market.
• 3:58
  Is institutional capital rotating?
• 4:01
  That is the question. That's the headlines.
• 4:03
  I know I've seen some Bitcoiners, some of my friends
• 4:05
  online saying, oh, we're seeing the capital rotation that we've
• 4:09
  been talking about. Finally, it's coming into
• 4:11
  Bitcoin. Bitcoin did have a pretty good,
• 4:14
  you know, response this morning. Over the weekend it did dump to
• 4:18
  about 68 K it got as high as 701K this morning.
• 4:22
  I think currently it's around 70K, but just reading a little
• 4:26
  key take away Black Rock infidelity, of course,
• 4:28
  institutional capital where net buyers of Bitcoin last week to
• 4:32
  really get into the numbers, they institutional capital,
• 4:36
  sorry, not just they, the ETF saw an outflow of about $250
• 4:41
  million, but they also saw an inflow of about $400 million.
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  So a net profit or a net inflow of net buyers here of 150
• 4:50
  millionaire going into the ETFs currently, which in the grand
• 4:54
  scheme of things, it's not the biggest number, but it is very
• 4:57
  interesting to see this happen, especially when you get the
• 5:00
  second key take away that gold has now officially entered a
• 5:04
  bear market again, The current price before the show was gold
• 5:08
  is around 17% drop since the war started.
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  It did get as low as 20 something percent, I think it
• 5:14
  was 22. So you're, you're wondering,
• 5:18
  you're like, OK, are the institutional investors starting
• 5:21
  to see Bitcoin as that neutral reserve asset?
• 5:24
  That is the question I'm going to keep beating into your head
• 5:27
  for the next 20-30 minutes. OK.
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  And then this last point is where the big contention
• 5:32
  happens. The rotation narrative remains
• 5:35
  contested. You can make a case that it's
• 5:38
  happening. You could also make a case for
• 5:40
  various different reasons for why gold has dropped, and I will
• 5:43
  cover those later. Obviously, since the war in the
• 5:46
  Middle East happened, we really have no clue what exactly the
• 5:50
  timeline is for this war. There's been a lot of
• 5:52
  conversations that we're in another forever war.
• 5:55
  There's been a lot of people saying, OK, it's going to end
• 5:58
  two to four weeks like the Trump administration said.
• 6:01
  And I will cover that a little bit later in the news because we
• 6:03
  saw some crazy whipsaw volatility in the S&P 500 this
• 6:07
  morning over the weekend about some of Trump's response.
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  It's literally trading like a shit coin.
• 6:14
  It's absolutely insane what's going on in Trad 5 right now.
• 6:17
  But anyways, I think the real conversation here is when you go
• 6:21
  deeper into this article, obviously gold topped, it seems
• 6:26
  like it's over. I know I saw some people saying
• 6:29
  that gold finally going back to one of the support areas that it
• 6:33
  has. This is healthy for the market.
• 6:36
  I think for a lot of maybe for a lot of us Bitcoin as we're
• 6:38
  looking at the gold market and we're just like chomping at the
• 6:41
  bits, we're like, OK, the gold run finally over.
• 6:43
  Let's get that capital into Bitcoin.
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  Let's get this bull run back on in order.
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  Come on guys, let let's really change what's going on.
• 6:52
  Anyways, this is where it gets interesting.
• 6:56
  Is this a rotation or is this a temporary decoupling?
• 7:01
  Maybe the decouple from Bitcoin to everything else is happening
• 7:05
  differently. Again, I will expand on that a
• 7:07
  little later, but I do like where we talk about the gold
• 7:13
  losing. It's kind of it's bull market.
• 7:15
  It's it's been it dropped, it's down 20% from all time high.
• 7:19
  Of course it's leading a lot of people to say that this is a
• 7:23
  quintessential technical bear market, that gold is in a bear
• 7:26
  market now. And of course, the decline, as
• 7:30
  it says in this article, is surprised almost everyone, given
• 7:33
  that gold typically strengthens during periods of geopolitical
• 7:37
  tension. We're seeing the opposite happen
• 7:39
  right now, which is what I said about Bitcoin when the war was
• 7:44
  announced, that following Monday when the markets open, I was
• 7:48
  expecting it to drop. Even this morning, I was
• 7:50
  expecting it to drop. We're seeing the opposite
• 7:53
  happen. Bitcoin is going up.
• 7:55
  It's I wouldn't say it's pumping.
• 7:57
  It's exploding. I did see some people say it's
• 7:59
  exploding, but you know, 68 to 71 just doesn't feel like an
• 8:04
  explosion. But maybe that's just because
• 8:06
  I'm a jaded bitcoiner and an explosion to me.
• 8:09
  We're we're waiting for the 10K green candle here.
• 8:12
  We're waiting for the Omega candle.
• 8:13
  That would be an explosion, not a cup, not a few lousy $1000 on
• 8:17
  the price. Anyways, this is again where the
• 8:21
  conversation is super interesting.
• 8:24
  We don't know what's going on in the Middle East.
• 8:27
  We heard initially the initial report was it's only going to be
• 8:31
  two to four days. You know, the idea that Trump
• 8:34
  launches an attack, the Venezuela model launches an
• 8:37
  attack after markets close Friday and then by Monday before
• 8:40
  the markets open, everything's back to normal.
• 8:43
  Well, we're on Week 4 now, officially three weeks in this
• 8:47
  war. We're going into the 4th week.
• 8:50
  There is a couple new announcements that I will cover
• 8:54
  later on in the show. Maybe they haven't.
• 8:58
  Maybe there is a plan here. I'm not a plan truster, but
• 9:01
  maybe there's a plan to end this war by the one month mark.
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  Maybe the more cynical view of an endless war.
• 9:08
  You know, Iraq 2 point O, which is basically the two prevailing
• 9:12
  narratives right now. With all that being said, gold
• 9:18
  bear market seems to be at least in the very beginning stages of
• 9:22
  they just entered a bear market. This is what leads everyone to
• 9:25
  think are we seeing a rotation into Bitcoin or rather just a
• 9:31
  general rotation out of gold currently?
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  Like what are the reasons for gold selling off and and
• 9:36
  precious metals at large? Silver had to sell off.
• 9:39
  Also equities again are going up and down like a shit coin.
• 9:44
  It's it's crazy stuff out here. A lot of people are saying I
• 9:48
  have a good meme for you guys. I know you guys love the meme
• 9:51
  review of Trump essentially turning the White House into a
• 9:55
  trading desk. Who knows?
• 9:58
  You know, Baron's out here making a killing as as far as we
• 10:00
  all like to joke. But anyways, despite the sell
• 10:03
  off, JP Morgan analysts described the move as a quote,
• 10:06
  extremely brutal flush, but maintained A constructive long
• 10:10
  term outlook. The longer the energy disruption
• 10:14
  persists and the greater the impact on inflation and growth,
• 10:17
  the more likely it is that gold's backdrop turns materially
• 10:20
  bullish again. So JP Morgan is looking at gold.
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  Technically it's in a bear market, but they're still kind
• 10:27
  of bullish on gold. So let's look over here.
• 10:30
  I'm going to flip over to the gold chart.
• 10:32
  We're not doing TA. I'm just showing you the price,
• 10:35
  the current price. It is currently at $4388 per oz.
• 10:41
  And you can see here if you're watching right now on YouTube
• 10:44
  and you're not listening this, you know, drawdown price change
• 10:48
  is basically from the start of the war to current prices, which
• 10:51
  is down 17%. But if you go further to where
• 10:54
  this dip went, it was down 22.39%.
• 10:59
  Absolutely brutal move in gold right now.
• 11:03
  I know I joked a little while ago about buying gold at the
• 11:06
  top. You don't want to be that guy
• 11:09
  right now. We only buy Bitcoin tops here,
• 11:12
  OK? We we're only OK with buying
• 11:13
  Bitcoin tops because we know eventually it's going to go up.
• 11:16
  I would not want to be buying gold or silver tops or even
• 11:20
  equity tops right now because who knows what's going on it.
• 11:23
  It's absolutely insane. Now again, as I was saying, the
• 11:28
  big conversation here is are we seeing $7 trillion of capital
• 11:35
  leave gold and potentially waiting for who knows what
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  they're waiting for to enter into Bitcoin?
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  Are they diversifying their portfolio?
• 11:47
  Are they just sitting in cash, which I think that is probably
• 11:51
  what's playing out here. I think the big move is there's
• 11:54
  obviously a good logical narrative you can make that we
• 12:02
  will see some of that capital rotate in the Bitcoin.
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  If we do see gold enter a prolonged bear market, if it
• 12:07
  goes further than 20%, I think you can make a good case that
• 12:12
  there will be some of that capital rotating in the Bitcoin.
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  Will it be a significant portion of that 7810?
• 12:18
  Who knows how many trillions going into Bitcoin.
• 12:22
  I I don't think it'll be all of it.
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  That's what multiples of the Bitcoin market cap, 7 trillion
• 12:28
  since January, since the top of gold all time high going into
• 12:33
  Bitcoin. That's what, 4X the Bitcoin
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  market cap or 3X the Bitcoin market cap, 2 1/2 to 3X.
• 12:42
  That's a huge jump. If all that capital did go into
• 12:45
  Bitcoin, which I don't think is what's going to happen, but if a
• 12:48
  portion of that goes into Bitcoin, we could reclaim the $2
• 12:51
  trillion market cap very quickly.
• 12:53
  We could be at the tail end of a bear market.
• 12:57
  I know we're all looking at the four year cycle, which we would
• 13:00
  expect that the bear market would bottom or at least have a
• 13:04
  reversal around October of this year.
• 13:07
  Depends what bear market numbers you're looking at.
• 13:12
  If you're looking at a bear market in dollar terms in
• 13:15
  Bitcoin, then October would realistically be when we'd see a
• 13:21
  final bottom and we start to have a reversal.
• 13:25
  When you look at Bitcoin priced in gold, that usually lasts 14
• 13:30
  months. We have passed that 14 month
• 13:33
  time frame. I think we're currently in the
• 13:36
  14th, about to go into the 15th. I'll have to double check that
• 13:39
  for you guys right now. But we are currently at least
• 13:42
  historically in the bear market is over territory when you price
• 13:47
  Bitcoin in gold. So the question is obviously
• 13:51
  what is that capital doing leaving gold?
• 13:54
  I know people are saying that gold's being manipulated.
• 13:57
  You know, they're, they're shutting off the gold bull run
• 14:01
  because they don't want people to escape.
• 14:02
  They don't want people to flee. They don't want a sovereign
• 14:06
  store of wealth, store of value like gold to continue to
• 14:10
  proliferate or, or even further that the gold bull run that we
• 14:14
  saw last year was wholly controlled.
• 14:17
  They basically hit an exit valve and they're like, hey, we want
• 14:20
  gold to run right now because, you know, central banks were
• 14:24
  buying gold. Everyone's trying to get a good
• 14:28
  little gain there. And so they pretty much took
• 14:30
  their foot off the pedal or put their foot off the ceiling so
• 14:32
  that gold could run. That's what a lot of people have
• 14:35
  been saying. So if you're looking at gold, I
• 14:38
  know the more hopium based view here is, oh, capital rotation,
• 14:44
  gold bull runs over. It's in a bear market that
• 14:47
  capital is going to flow into Bitcoin.
• 14:49
  But again, all of our models are broken.
• 14:51
  I think a more realistic take of what is happening in gold is we
• 14:57
  are currently in essentially A liquidity crisis.
• 15:00
  And so it's not an inflation driven crisis yet.
• 15:04
  Yes, we are seeing that the Pentagon is asking for $200
• 15:08
  billion. We're seeing that the Fed is
• 15:11
  doing their own repo purchases. They're buying their own
• 15:15
  dollars. If this war goes on any longer,
• 15:19
  we are going to see prices rise because of oil prices going up.
• 15:23
  The oil now is currently around $88 per barrel.
• 15:27
  So I don't think it's an inflation crisis right now.
• 15:32
  I don't think that the move to gold is because of inflation
• 15:36
  concerns. I think what we're seeing with
• 15:40
  gold repricing is there is a liquidity crunch right now.
• 15:44
  I think people are probably sitting in dollars, they're
• 15:46
  sitting in cash currently because they don't know what's
• 15:49
  going on. Now.
• 15:50
  Obviously from a bit corners perspective, it it's a dumb move
• 15:54
  in our opinion to go into cash. It's like you're going to,
• 15:57
  you're losing, you know, 2% a year at minimum.
• 16:01
  Depends on the numbers. Trueflation says it's somewhere
• 16:03
  around 1 1/2 percent. Most people on the street, you
• 16:06
  know, on Twitter saying it's probably closer to 7%.
• 16:10
  Either way, sitting in cash for the long term, you are losing
• 16:14
  purchasing power. So I don't think they're sitting
• 16:17
  in cash for the long term. I don't think they're using the
• 16:20
  dollar or if any, Fiat currency as a store of value.
• 16:25
  I think what they're probably doing is they're taking a little
• 16:28
  bit off the top with gold, probably sitting in cash.
• 16:32
  They're trying to make sense what's going on in the Middle
• 16:34
  East. They're trying to make sense in
• 16:38
  what's going on with equities. Are we pricing in a long war?
• 16:41
  Are we pricing in the end of this war?
• 16:44
  They're trying to get their chips in a row, their ducks in a
• 16:46
  row. They're they're trying to get in
• 16:48
  the cash. Yes, they went into gold last
• 16:50
  year. They made a pretty good game.
• 16:53
  Now they're sitting in cash and waiting to deploy that capital.
• 16:56
  That's probably my take on what's going on.
• 16:59
  I do think some of that capital will eventually find its way
• 17:02
  into Bitcoin, obviously, but what are the factors that people
• 17:07
  are waiting on? Most people are saying that
• 17:10
  they're waiting for the quote Clarity Act regulatory clarity
• 17:14
  to happen so that they can actually start to deploy
• 17:17
  capital. While we did get some some
• 17:20
  clarity, some regulatory clarity, not from the Clarity
• 17:23
  Act, but from the the SEC and the CFTC last week.
• 17:27
  And I have a new clip about that.
• 17:28
  I'm going to play that for you in a minute.
• 17:30
  So maybe as I was kind of speculating on the show, the
• 17:34
  clarity is coming from the SEC and the CFTC and not necessarily
• 17:38
  coming from Congress, which is still good for the markets.
• 17:42
  People are feeling a little better about where they can put
• 17:45
  their capital. They're feeling a little better
• 17:47
  about the quote UN quote digital asset industry at large.
• 17:52
  And they're just waiting to see, are we out of a bear market?
• 17:55
  Are we going to go lower? I think people are stacking up
• 17:59
  their dollars so that they can deploy their capital either into
• 18:03
  the stock market or into Bitcoin or into oil stocks, you know,
• 18:09
  into oil itself, into oil futures.
• 18:13
  I think this is probably what's happened in gold currently.
• 18:19
  But it does beg the question, and This is why I put Peter
• 18:22
  Schiff on the thumbnail today because, you know, he's been out
• 18:25
  there for years, literally years, saying Bitcoin is not a
• 18:29
  store of value. He had he was able to do his
• 18:32
  victory lap last year. He did his I told you so.
• 18:35
  I told you gold was going to run.
• 18:37
  You know, he only had to wait a decade or something.
• 18:39
  But hey, I'll let I'll let you take your dance.
• 18:44
  But currently we're seeing Bitcoin act as we know it to act
• 18:50
  and know it to be, which is the sovereign neutral reserve asset
• 18:55
  reserve currency, reserve money of the world.
• 18:57
  The reserve store value that no one controls that is not
• 19:02
  dependent on the state. It's separate from the state.
• 19:05
  It's separate from the money printer.
• 19:06
  It's outside of the traditional financial system and it's acting
• 19:10
  in a way that makes you think, is this the decoupling
• 19:15
  happening? Maybe it's just not happening in
• 19:18
  the way that we thought it would.
• 19:20
  And that, I think is the interesting kind of perspective
• 19:23
  of what's going on. Again, I've been saying this
• 19:26
  since the war started. I've been very surprised at how
• 19:30
  resilient Bitcoin has been, excuse me, acting in the last
• 19:35
  three weeks. I was really expecting to have
• 19:38
  basically what our third Black Swan since October 10th with
• 19:42
  this war and Bitcoin dumping and we finally get that flush that
• 19:45
  we're all expecting that hasn't happened.
• 19:49
  That's the interesting view here is like was our perspective of
• 19:54
  the Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets not how we
• 20:00
  expected it? And this is where I'm going to
• 20:02
  bring up my boy Fernando Bass Layer from Bitcoin Perception.
• 20:06
  I think he's been doing a very great job on Twitter, and he did
• 20:10
  this tweet here and of course, he's dunking on Peter Schiff.
• 20:13
  So he goes, gold has been crashing for nine straight days,
• 20:16
  nine in a row. What say you, Peter Schiff?
• 20:20
  And it's crashing during an oil shock, during war escalation,
• 20:24
  during exactly the environment that gold was built for, or
• 20:28
  rather the environment that the thesis on why you want to own
• 20:33
  gold was built upon. And this was a little while ago.
• 20:37
  Currently Bitcoin's at 70K. And we keep reading these
• 20:41
  headlines of, oh, Bitcoin crashed because of the war.
• 20:44
  It's weighing a lot on crypto, which is technically true.
• 20:48
  We haven't pumped, We haven't really broken out of this 70K60K
• 20:52
  range. But that's not looking at the
• 20:55
  whole picture. It's not telling you what's
• 20:58
  happening in equities and gold or precious metals, what's
• 21:01
  happening in in oil, what's happening in bonds.
• 21:05
  It's not telling you all of this about Bitcoin.
• 21:09
  It's just telling you about Bitcoin in a vacuum.
• 21:11
  But in the context of everything going on, it's super, super
• 21:16
  interesting that Bitcoin didn't crash under 60K to 504030K, what
• 21:21
  have you. The fact we're holding here
• 21:24
  where we are, I think that is all the signal that we really
• 21:27
  need anyways, he goes on. But again, they're not giving
• 21:30
  you the context here. Stocks drop more and bonds are
• 21:34
  getting hammered. That was supposed to protect you
• 21:36
  during chaos is failing. And Fernando used to work at
• 21:42
  Blockstream, he says. We used to talk about this all
• 21:44
  the time. What does Bitcoin decoupling
• 21:46
  actually look like? We all assumed it meant Bitcoin
• 21:50
  goes up while everything else stayed flat.
• 21:53
  But currently we're seeing maybe it just means everything goes
• 21:58
  down a lot and Bitcoin doesn't go down as much.
• 22:03
  Maybe the answer to this is simply there's just not that
• 22:06
  much sellers. Like who is selling Bitcoin
• 22:08
  right now? I think the 1010 crash really
• 22:12
  got rid of all the sellers or most of them.
• 22:14
  And then the N6 crash, I don't think there's really that many
• 22:18
  people that are selling, right? I don't think anyone has any
• 22:21
  coin to sell. Think everyone that wanted to
• 22:24
  sell is selling, has already sold.
• 22:27
  And everyone here is like, we're all true Bitcoin believers.
• 22:30
  We're holding this for the long term.
• 22:32
  Well, it turns out maybe that is the bigger story here.
• 22:36
  Maybe this is how the decoupling works in Bitcoin.
• 22:39
  Maybe this is what it looks like and I'll pull up the chart
• 22:42
  again. This is the the Bitcoin chart.
• 22:45
  I'm not, I'm not chart boying here, but you can see Bitcoin
• 22:49
  currently at $70,713. And again, my, my price chart
• 22:56
  here is the start of the war and Bitcoin is currently up 7% where
• 23:03
  if you go a little higher, you know, to the highs, it was up
• 23:05
  13, almost 14%. So go down 17%.
• 23:13
  Equities are down about 8%. I'm I'm averaging here and
• 23:18
  bitcoins up 7%. Is this where we come to
• 23:25
  understand all of our models are really broken?
• 23:27
  Every thesis minus the fact that Bitcoin is a sovereign neutral
• 23:33
  store value world reserve currency, the money of the
• 23:36
  future, digital money for a digital world.
• 23:39
  Maybe you know, yes, four year cycle seemingly still intact,
• 23:46
  every other model completely thrown out the window.
• 23:50
  Our idea of what Bitcoin decoupling was doesn't really
• 23:54
  play out exactly as we expected. Again, you know, maps are, are
• 23:59
  good to understand the terrain or what's the saying?
• 24:02
  You know, maps don't define the terrain.
• 24:05
  It just helps you understand the landscape.
• 24:07
  I, I, I forget what it is. You guys know me, I suck at, I
• 24:11
  suck at quotes and whatnot here, but that is the huge question.
• 24:18
  Are we seeing something changed? And that's been kind of my
• 24:22
  thesis here for a minute, really.
• 24:24
  Does feel things have fundamentally changed?
• 24:27
  Yes. Maybe the four year cycle's
• 24:28
  intact, but everything underlying Bitcoin, all the
• 24:32
  fundamentals, not that the fundamentals has changed per SE
• 24:35
  in terms of the Bitcoin network, the software, you know, it's not
• 24:40
  a rule change in Bitcoin. But I think the perception and
• 24:44
  the narrative around what Bitcoin is and what it can do
• 24:47
  and what it will do for people, I think that perception has
• 24:52
  fundamentally shifted, which I think is going to really change
• 24:56
  the trajectory of where Bitcoin is going.
• 24:59
  Not in terms of dollar price, we know what that's doing, but in
• 25:03
  terms of how Bitcoin moves within the four year cycle,
• 25:09
  again, everyone's waiting till October saying basically, hey,
• 25:12
  we just got to buckle down, survive for the next 6 months
• 25:16
  and then Bitcoins going to do its thing.
• 25:17
  You know, like clockwork, the simulation is going to play out
• 25:21
  exactly as we knew it was for your cycle intact.
• 25:24
  We hit it perfectly. We're going to get a drop.
• 25:27
  You know, it's going to go 80% and then Bitcoins going to run
• 25:31
  back up like we all know it is. Now that we have institutional
• 25:36
  investors in Bitcoin, now that Wall Street is here, a bear
• 25:41
  market for them is usually four months.
• 25:44
  Again in dollar price, we're at that four months mark.
• 25:48
  Maybe we're not going to see a huge capitulation of that, maybe
• 25:52
  we will. In gold terms, we are already at
• 25:57
  the end of a bear market 14 month mark.
• 25:59
  So it's very interesting when you kind of think about all this
• 26:03
  is capital rotating from gold into Bitcoin.
• 26:06
  I think it's kind of a weak case.
• 26:08
  There is a case to be made, but I think it's a weak case.
• 26:12
  But we are seeing Bitcoin hold out really good right now.
• 26:16
  Now obviously that can change on a dime.
• 26:20
  But if we do see Bitcoin start to climb up, if it climbs back
• 26:24
  up past 70K75K gets as high as maybe 84 K, that's where it gets
• 26:32
  very, very interesting. Though.
• 26:34
  I have seen what's the guys Ben Cohen, he did say, and he's
• 26:38
  notorious bear right now. He's like 4 year cycles
• 26:41
  perfectly intact. He was saying we'll see a kind
• 26:46
  of a, a bull trap in March. It'll it'll climb up and then
• 26:50
  we're going to have another leg down.
• 26:52
  That is, that is a common sentiment right now that could
• 26:54
  be playing out as well. But if we don't see that and
• 26:59
  Bitcoin is seemingly decoupling right now from traditional
• 27:03
  markets, it is very interesting because gold and silver have
• 27:11
  wiped out all their year today gains, they're back to zero.
• 27:16
  And even though our year hasn't been the best, considering what
• 27:20
  happened last year, Bitcoin is the one that's winning.
• 27:25
  Guys. The question is, is this what
• 27:27
  winning feels like? Is this what winning feels like?
• 27:31
  Mr. President, if you can hear me, I am tired of winning.
• 27:37
  I never knew winning would be this demoralizing.
• 27:41
  I thought it would be fun. That's the question.
• 27:44
  Is Bitcoin winning? By the numbers, I would say yes.
• 27:50
  And I obviously long term history, 17 years Bitcoin is
• 27:53
  obviously winning. But in the short term, again,
• 27:55
  zooming in to the short term price action, the short term
• 27:59
  movements of Bitcoin in the face of multiple black Swans for
• 28:02
  Bitcoin, it's hard to look at the data and not say Bitcoin is
• 28:07
  winning currently. Is it a decouple?
• 28:11
  Maybe. Is capital rotating the Bitcoin?
• 28:15
  Think it's a weak case to say, but there is a case to be made.
• 28:18
  I think people are sitting in cash because they really have no
• 28:21
  idea what's going on. You wake up 1 morning, Trump
• 28:25
  tweets something, the markets react, the market's closed.
• 28:30
  He tweets literally the exact opposite.
• 28:33
  The market start pricing that in.
• 28:35
  You wake up in the morning, price the market at open 930, it
• 28:41
  goes crazy. Then midday, something else is
• 28:44
  tweeted. The price crashes.
• 28:47
  It's insane out there and Bitcoin just keeps chugging
• 28:51
  along. Very interesting times to say
• 28:54
  the least. And and I'm not just saying that
• 28:55
  because of course I'm a Bitcoiner and this is like a
• 28:59
  show and you guys always yell at me about click bait.
• 29:01
  I think this is super interesting time because of what
• 29:06
  you guys have been saying because I'm the quote UN quote
• 29:09
  macro expert here, which I'm really not.
• 29:12
  I'm trying to understand Bitcoin in the context of the macro
• 29:16
  geopolitical landscape that we currently find ourselves in.
• 29:20
  Bitcoin, the way it's been acting, it's super interesting
• 29:24
  in terms of the macro landscape, the macro outlook.
• 29:28
  It really does feel like Bitcoin is starting to take its rightful
• 29:33
  role in the center of global macro geopolitical landscape,
• 29:39
  economy. However you want to put it,
• 29:42
  Bitcoin is is doing great. I know we're jaded.
• 29:45
  I know we want the dopamine rush of price going absolutely crazy,
• 29:51
  but I think the fact that Bitcoin is still going sideways,
• 29:53
  as you know, pat myself on the back as I said it was, and now
• 29:57
  it's going to dump. Watch, it's going to dump right
• 29:59
  now. That's I think that is the
• 30:02
  signal. I know a lot of people will
• 30:04
  always say the Bitcoin price doesn't matter, guys.
• 30:07
  You know, there's more interesting things about
• 30:08
  Bitcoin. I totally agree.
• 30:12
  But price is the signal in a free market, the price of a
• 30:17
  thing is the signal in and of itself.
• 30:21
  And we're currently at 70 Ki don't know guys, I'm starting to
• 30:25
  feel a little bullish. I don't want to get too bullish.
• 30:28
  I don't want to get my hopes up. I'm I'm doing the let's not get
• 30:33
  too excited, but it feels pretty good.
• 30:37
  I'm not going to lie. It feels pretty good to sit here
• 30:40
  and look at old Peter Schiff and be like, yo, what happened to
• 30:44
  gold bro? And we're sitting on our measly
• 30:47
  7% gains. Hey, I'm going to take the win.
• 30:50
  I'm going to take the victory. Victory lap.
• 30:53
  I know the What's it? The Big Short Don't dance.
• 30:58
  If I can't dance, if I can't laugh, I'm just going to be
• 31:00
  crying. OK?
• 31:01
  So we're going to do a little cha cha.
• 31:03
  Well, you know, we're going to do a little.
• 31:04
  I told you so cha cha. Because bitcoins doing exactly
• 31:08
  as it was designed to do. And it's beautiful to watch.
• 31:11
  I'm here for it. We'll be here for it.
• 31:14
  Let's see what happens towards the end of this year and further
• 31:17
  towards the end of potentially a conclusion in the Middle East in
• 31:22
  not a war, but an operation or just a mission.
• 31:27
  I don't, I don't even know what they're classifying it now.
• 31:29
  Is it a time thing? Is it a a legal distinction of
• 31:33
  whether this is a war? Is there going to be troops on
• 31:37
  the ground? Who even knows?
• 31:40
  I'm sure even Trump doesn't know.
• 31:42
  One morning he says one thing. Later in the afternoon he
• 31:45
  changes his mind. But I'm just sitting pretty in
• 31:49
  Bitcoin. Let the world figure their stuff
• 31:51
  out. We just want to acquire more
• 31:53
  Bitcoin. Make sure you have more Bitcoin
• 31:55
  today than you had yesterday. That's the winning play.
• 32:00
  The only winning move is not the play in the Fiat game.
• 32:04
  Just start sacking Bitcoin. Continue to accumulate Bitcoin.
• 32:07
  That is the winning move. The winning move is don't stop
• 32:10
  accumulating Bitcoin. Love or hate, Sailor, I don't
• 32:14
  know if you saw, but he bought another 1000 coins this morning
• 32:17
  or last week, which I think now the total is about 42,000 coins
• 32:22
  he's bought in the last two weeks or what, 1415 days?
• 32:29
  You just play the same game he's playing.
• 32:32
  Let's continue to accumulate, yes, We don't have basically
• 32:35
  free capital to buy Bitcoin, but you just need to keep
• 32:39
  accumulating Bitcoin. That's the name of the game.
• 32:42
  All right guys, I'll be right back and we will be chatting
• 32:45
  about the CSEC and CFTC rules, what this means for the market,
• 32:50
  why I think it's probably going to be more clarity for
• 32:54
  institutions, for the investor, then the Clarity Act will
• 32:57
  probably provide. Think we already got that in the
• 33:01
  news. I will be covering again, simply
• 33:05
  Fiat. We are going to be covering what
• 33:06
  what happened in the S&P 500 this morning, a little bit of
• 33:10
  what Trump's been saying about the war.
• 33:12
  It's really about just the markets whip sawing right now
• 33:15
  and why I think that's making the case that a lot of people
• 33:19
  are sitting on the sidelines in cash just trying to figure out
• 33:22
  what their positions are. And then to wrap up the show,
• 33:27
  dude, we have another cell phone coming from the EU.
• 33:30
  It just keeps getting worse over there.
• 33:33
  I don't know what they're doing. I feel bad for my European
• 33:36
  friends that are still there, still very proud of my European
• 33:39
  ancestry. But man, the EU is cooked and
• 33:43
  they just keep doubling down. It's not about the digital ID.
• 33:47
  It's not about the CBDC. It's actually way worse in terms
• 33:51
  of Bitcoin and for you as a citizen.
• 33:54
  So that's today's show. I'll be right back.
• 33:58
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• 36:07
  Right, guys, you, you know, I like looking at the chat and I'm
• 36:11
  getting cooked. Scott Casper the K is silent in
• 36:16
  the escape. Did I say escape?
• 36:19
  I don't. I don't know.
• 36:20
  It's escape. Too much coffee this morning.
• 36:24
  It's too hot in here. I've got cottonmouth from all
• 36:27
  the coffee. Whatever, dude.
• 36:31
  I don't know how I have a talk show.
• 36:33
  I can barely speak English. OK, I speak one language and I
• 36:37
  can barely speak it. OK, blame the public schools all
• 36:40
  right. Blame my low IQ, all right?
• 36:44
  Anyways, Anyways, the current Bitcoin price is $70,490.00.
• 36:51
  The discount from all time high is 44.1%.
• 36:55
  The market cap is $1.41 trillion.
• 36:59
  Looks like we have secured the 1.4 dude.
• 37:02
  It's not much but it's something 1.3 just kills me.
• 37:06
  Anyways the block height TikTok next block the universal time on
• 37:10
  planet earth is currently 941,897.
• 37:16
  OK, so as I was telling you yesterday, the.
• 37:21
  Case also. Sounded like especially do I say
• 37:24
  especially especially. Wow, dude, I can't speak.
• 37:28
  All right. ANYWAYS, OK, I'm getting cooked.
• 37:34
  All right, it's Monday, guys. Jeez.
• 37:36
  All right, I'll work on my diction my my grammar, hopefully
• 37:43
  by tomorrow. Anyways, as I was telling you
• 37:47
  guys last week, this was the big news that came out of the SEC
• 37:51
  and the CFTCI Don't really remember what the title was of
• 37:55
  the show. Let me let me do a little a
• 37:58
  little throwback here. Let me do a little call back
• 38:01
  here. What did I say?
• 38:03
  OK, So Wednesday's show that probably the biggest Bitcoin
• 38:08
  announcement we have seen in over a year happen, which was
• 38:13
  the SEC and the CFTC come out with this joint memorandum to
• 38:18
  basically coordinate and officially work amongst the same
• 38:23
  rule set for a long time. SEC, did you know what's it
• 38:30
  rules by enforcement or law by enforcement where we really
• 38:35
  didn't know what was happening in the Bitcoin industry?
• 38:38
  You do something and then you'd get in trouble and then that
• 38:41
  would set the precedent moving forward.
• 38:43
  And that's kind of how we've been working in the space for a
• 38:46
  long time until last week when the SEC and the CFTC formally
• 38:52
  said, hey, we are going to do, we're going to coordinate here
• 38:56
  and all of our framework, it's going to be very clear.
• 39:00
  You're going to know what's going on.
• 39:02
  This is, I think probably the biggest quote clarity we've seen
• 39:07
  from any regulation, any institution is what happened
• 39:11
  from the SEC and the CFTC. It is a huge news.
• 39:14
  I know a lot of you guys in the chat are like, oh, Opti and Nico
• 39:18
  simply Bitcoin keeps begging the government to help Bitcoin to,
• 39:24
  you know, give us some good rules so that we can do what we
• 39:27
  want to do and Arco capitalism, bro, you know, I get it, I get
• 39:31
  it, but we work on different rules.
• 39:35
  Well, hold on, let me pull that back.
• 39:39
  We all work on one rule set. There is a law here.
• 39:44
  You know, there are laws we follow, but institutions look at
• 39:48
  different signals before they deploy capital.
• 39:52
  And for a long time, obviously, one, they weren't even allowed
• 39:55
  to go into Bitcoin. But 2, the regulatory
• 39:59
  uncertainty was one of the signals that stopped them from
• 40:01
  deploying real capital. Now we're starting to see that
• 40:06
  again, for better or worse. Whether the Trump administration
• 40:08
  has been good for Bitcoin or not, it's up for debate.
• 40:12
  But we are seeing one thing. They have forced the
• 40:15
  institutions and the regular, the regulating bodies.
• 40:19
  To take a more pro Bitcoin stance, yes, some of that is pro
• 40:23
  shit coin stance or pro digital asset stance.
• 40:26
  And maybe it's not perfect. If you are a hardcore Bitcoin
• 40:31
  maxi, a Bitcoin purist, it's probably you want a little more.
• 40:35
  But there is clear rules now. And we saw this clip on I
• 40:41
  believe it's Fox News. Let me double check.
• 40:45
  It was totally Fox News. Yeah, it was on Fox News of Mike
• 40:50
  Selig, the chairman of the CFTC. And this is, I think minus the
• 40:55
  Paul Atkins speech where he announced this.
• 40:58
  I'm pretty sure this is the first response we've heard from
• 41:01
  the CFTC. So let's listen to that real
• 41:03
  quick. And I think it's going to
• 41:05
  continue to make the case that this is probably the clarity
• 41:09
  that the institutions that the regulatory bodies, it's probably
• 41:13
  the only clarity we're going to get.
• 41:15
  OK, that that's kind of my stance right now.
• 41:16
  I know I maybe I'll talk about what the updates are with the
• 41:20
  Clarity Act itself, but I think this is probably the true
• 41:23
  clarity that the quote institutions wanted from the
• 41:27
  regulatory body. So here we go framework, walk us
• 41:31
  through what this new framework means and and what you are
• 41:34
  trying to do here in terms of in terms of specifically
• 41:38
  identifying what's a security and what is a commodity.
• 41:43
  For far too long, the prior administration left crypto in
• 41:47
  limbo. The SEC under Gary Gensler, led
• 41:51
  by enforcement, drove many of these crypto firms offshore.
• 41:55
  And this was really a tactic to create confusion as to what's a
• 41:58
  security and what's not under our regulatory framework and
• 42:01
  discourage creators, innovators, builders from developing their
• 42:05
  businesses here on shore. And so Chairman Atkins and I now
• 42:08
  have developed a new interpretation that will provide
• 42:11
  clarity once and for all as to what's the security and what's
• 42:14
  not, what's within the SEC's framework, what's within the
• 42:17
  CFTC's framework, and what types of offerings and sales of crypto
• 42:21
  assets implicate the securities laws.
• 42:24
  So for too long when a company wants to come out and raise
• 42:27
  funds with a crypto asset, they weren't sure if they were
• 42:30
  subject to the securities laws. This framework lays out a really
• 42:33
  clear and simple road map for any company that wants to sell a
• 42:38
  crypto asset to raise capital, what their securities law
• 42:41
  obligations are, and then the status of the crypto asset.
• 42:44
  Most importantly under the securities laws, we need to draw
• 42:47
  a distinction between the capital raising activity, which
• 42:50
  typically is subject to the securities laws, and the crypto
• 42:54
  assets themselves, which generally speaking aren't.
• 42:56
  These are a type of digital good that can trade just like any
• 43:00
  other type of commodity in our in our market and the SEC and
• 43:04
  CFTC are now harmonizing our approaches to regulating these
• 43:07
  digital assets. It's also very important that we
• 43:10
  have legislation pending that this interpretation is intended
• 43:13
  to supplement and help in the in the interim as we're working
• 43:16
  through getting some future proof legislation on the books.
• 43:21
  OK. Hope that made sense to you.
• 43:25
  So just to recap what he said basically, which in my opinion
• 43:31
  is where it gets a little blurry, but he said if you're
• 43:35
  raising capital with a token, it's a security, but the quote
• 43:40
  asset itself is a commodity or digital commodity.
• 43:45
  That is a massive classification or clarification, but I don't
• 43:51
  know, it may literally when I hear that, obviously I hear all
• 43:56
  shit coins are securities. Obviously, when the SEC and the
• 44:00
  CFTC announces joint memorandum, they did also announce that 15
• 44:06
  other tokens I'm being nice here were digital commodities,
• 44:12
  Bitcoin and 15 other shit coins. And some of those, in my
• 44:16
  opinion, and you know, my, everyone has an opinion.
• 44:23
  I think some of those would necessarily fall under that
• 44:25
  classification that they are raising capital with a token,
• 44:29
  thus being a security. But hey, they're going to let
• 44:32
  ether and Solana and I forget what the other ones slide
• 44:35
  through as digital commodities. I guess now they're so big that
• 44:40
  they're no longer raising capital for a company or I don't
• 44:44
  know, I it's not my job to clarify this, but this is still
• 44:49
  a huge distinction from the Gary Gensler SEC and the previous
• 44:55
  CFTC where they were fighting each other.
• 44:58
  They are in harmony now and it does reinforce something us
• 45:02
  Bitcoiners have known for a long time.
• 45:05
  Bitcoin isn't part of this debate.
• 45:08
  Bitcoin has no issuer. There is no fundraising event,
• 45:12
  there is no central entity, there is no company behind
• 45:15
  Bitcoin, which means, in my opinion, obviously it's the only
• 45:23
  digital commodity. But I, I won't pick up straws
• 45:26
  here, but it just shows that Bitcoin fundamentally sits
• 45:30
  outside of the securities laws framework, which I think it's
• 45:35
  going to set really good precedent moving forward of,
• 45:37
  hey, you probably only want to put capital into Bitcoin if you
• 45:41
  are looking for a quote, a digital commodity.
• 45:44
  A lot of these other tokens, shit coins, whatever you want to
• 45:47
  call them, they are very clearly securities.
• 45:51
  Now it is interesting if we are seeing the SECCFTC pick and
• 45:59
  choose some of the winners and losers amongst the shit coins.
• 46:02
  Maybe, you know, maybe they got some bags in Solana or Ethereum
• 46:05
  or whatever. I'm not accusing anyone of
• 46:07
  anything. I'm just speculating, you know,
• 46:09
  just putting together the incentives here.
• 46:13
  That's why they let it slide. But the rest of the industry is
• 46:21
  working to fit within the regulatory framework.
• 46:24
  But Bitcoin already lives outside of it.
• 46:28
  So from like a Bitcoin or perspective, This is why I think
• 46:32
  this is such a huge announcement.
• 46:35
  Yes, it's not the prettiest, it's not the flashiest, but this
• 46:41
  is regulatory clarity. Now, since we're using the
• 46:45
  clarity word, I think I've said it like 15 times in 10 minutes.
• 46:49
  We did see a recent announcement over the weekend.
• 46:53
  I actually saw another announcement this morning that
• 46:56
  apparently the White House is going to have a meeting to
• 46:58
  discuss the compromises of the Clarity Act.
• 47:03
  It seems like the banks have compromise on the stable coin
• 47:07
  yield. So from everything I saw over
• 47:12
  the weekend, they're still maintaining that by the end of
• 47:17
  April, the Clarity Act should either get through or at least
• 47:22
  we're going to move further on in the Clarity Act.
• 47:25
  I'm still the opinion and I'll probably be wrong, and I'm not
• 47:30
  trying to fight. I'm not trying to be negative,
• 47:33
  but I'm kind of of the opinion that the regulatory clarity that
• 47:38
  we saw from the SEC and the CFTCI know in the clip, it said
• 47:41
  that it's going to be in partnership with the Clarity Act
• 47:45
  and it's going to, you know, that's really what's going to
• 47:48
  bring the regulatory clarity. But I think this might be all we
• 47:51
  get. Maybe I'm just burnt out and
• 47:54
  tired of politics. I don't have much faith in
• 47:57
  politicians. I personally don't have much
• 48:00
  faith in the system at all, but we'll see what happens.
• 48:05
  We got another month. I'm sure we'll hear something
• 48:07
  from this meeting that's supposedly going to happen this
• 48:10
  week around regulation, regulatory clarity, digital
• 48:14
  assets industry. So that's where we currently
• 48:17
  are. We have been covering the
• 48:18
  Clarity Act a lot in the last couple of weeks because it has
• 48:21
  been one of the contentious ideas, has been one of the hot
• 48:25
  button topics right now, especially because we are seeing
• 48:29
  Washington DC be a little more pro Bitcoin.
• 48:32
  And that also brings up another conversation is what we're
• 48:37
  seeing currently in the Bitcoin price in the gold bear market.
• 48:44
  Can we attribute some of the price action to a seemingly more
• 48:50
  pro Bitcoin DCA, pro Bitcoin federal government, at least in
• 48:56
  the United States? That is an interesting wrinkle
• 49:00
  to add on top to. We're probably seeing people
• 49:03
  holding the cash because of liquidity crisis.
• 49:06
  We don't know what's going on with the war.
• 49:08
  There is a lot of uncertainty in the system.
• 49:10
  Bitcoins kind of doing really well.
• 49:13
  Are people not just looking at Bitcoin as a sovereign neutral
• 49:18
  store of value digital money that no one controls?
• 49:22
  Or are they looking at Bitcoin and being, hey, we are going to
• 49:27
  get some regulatory clarity? I can have my institution invest
• 49:30
  a significant amount of our capital into this market.
• 49:33
  I can diversify My Portfolio into this thing and it's not
• 49:36
  going to get swatted away. It's not going to crash.
• 49:39
  It's not going to be outlawed. Now it is becoming part of the
• 49:46
  traditional financial rails. It is becoming part of the
• 49:48
  infrastructure of global finance because the Trump administration
• 49:53
  went so pro Bitcoin because Washington DC is not wholly
• 49:58
  fighting this industry, though I have my own, you know,
• 50:01
  narcissistic, cynical view of that where I kind of liked when
• 50:06
  they were fighting Bitcoin. Remember when they fought us and
• 50:09
  Bitcoin price went up? And compare that to when they
• 50:14
  embraced us and Bitcoin price went down.
• 50:19
  Yeah, I think I I think I'm going to take they fight us and
• 50:21
  the Bitcoin price goes up. All right, All right.
• 50:25
  I don't want to make myself laugh because someone says like,
• 50:27
  I hate when you laugh. Look, I have an eccentric laugh.
• 50:31
  If you've met me in person, you know, I have one of those either
• 50:35
  you love or hate the laugh. So I'm, I'm trying not to make
• 50:38
  myself laugh here, but kind of want them to fight us again
• 50:41
  because I think that means Bitcoin will go up.
• 50:46
  I don't know. Can we all just reminisce here,
• 50:51
  you know, do the do do like go into a different world?
• 50:55
  Where would Bitcoin be if Kamala Harris was president?
• 50:59
  Would we be at 250 KA? Boy can dream.
• 51:04
  A boy can dream. All right, sorry I failed.
• 51:10
  I made myself laugh. All right, anyways, we're going
• 51:13
  to go into the saga in the Middle East right now.
• 51:17
  So I know I'm getting tired of talking about this, but this is
• 51:24
  a financial show. This is simply Fiat after all,
• 51:28
  and just craziness is happening right now.
• 51:31
  It's just absolutely nuts. Trump sends a tweet, markets go
• 51:37
  wild, sends another tweet, and they do the exact opposite that
• 51:41
  they did literally this morning. We saw this all take place in an
• 51:44
  hour. So that's what I'm going to
• 51:46
  cover in the news. I'll be right back.
• 51:49
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Leaden, the leader
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  code simply. OK sorry guys I'm getting
• 54:31
  cooked. I I didn't realize I said
• 54:33
  especially man I'm I'm so self-conscious right now dude is
• 54:42
  my especially like Niko's pizza this dude RIP bro it's so over
• 54:47
  for me today. Anyways you guys don't care
• 54:49
  about this. I'm just having some fun with
• 54:51
  the chat. I'll I'll get into the news.
• 54:53
  OK, hold on serious face, you're going to be a stiff.
• 54:57
  I got to be serious when I report the news or else you guys
• 54:59
  don't want to watch it. So give me a second here we go
• 55:03
  OK, so I know you guys don't like this.
• 55:07
  I don't I mean one of the one of the let me let me go back here.
• 55:11
  One of the main things that I truly loved about Bitcoin before
• 55:16
  last year, actually one of the things that attracted me to
• 55:19
  Bitcoin in the 1st place is the idea that I didn't have to pay
• 55:25
  attention to politics. I didn't have to pay attention
• 55:27
  to what happened in the in the traditional financial.
• 55:29
  I didn't have to pay attention to what happened in the Fiat
• 55:31
  system. All I had to do was opt out of
• 55:35
  that Fiat system, sell my dollars, acquire Bitcoin,
• 55:39
  accumulate more Bitcoin, provide value, you know, in my job, in
• 55:44
  my day-to-day job, and just make sure that I'm saving in Bitcoin.
• 55:48
  And that's literally all you have to do if you want to tune
• 55:52
  out of everything. The only signal you really need
• 55:55
  is are you acquiring more Bitcoin?
• 55:57
  Everything else is out of our control.
• 56:00
  It's probably not mentally healthy.
• 56:02
  You know, it's probably not good for our mental health to be
• 56:04
  paying attention to all this stuff.
• 56:07
  But it's also super entertaining, OK, It's just
• 56:10
  super entertaining. It is about finances.
• 56:12
  It is about the financial world, economics.
• 56:15
  So it all does correlate with Bitcoin.
• 56:17
  Again, Bitcoin is a macro asset. Now.
• 56:21
  I think it's become very clear that Bitcoin is in the
• 56:25
  geopolitical macro conversation. Therefore, This is why I cover
• 56:30
  all this stuff. And I know some people are like
• 56:32
  you guys are simply Fiat now. You guys are simply gold, simply
• 56:36
  politics. Well, the beauty of Bitcoin is
• 56:39
  that it does touch every single aspect, every single discipline
• 56:44
  in the world. If, if you, if you look hard
• 56:46
  enough, you know, whether it's health, whether it's wealth,
• 56:49
  whether it's longevity, whether it's, you know, the weather,
• 56:54
  Bitcoin connects with every single discipline that you could
• 56:59
  be interested in. And what we're seeing come out
• 57:02
  of the Trump administration currently is it's just, it's
• 57:07
  very interesting. I, I think I've been over using
• 57:09
  the word interesting today. I'm again, I'm being super
• 57:11
  self-conscious because now I, I guess I say especially so what's
• 57:16
  another word for interesting? It is.
• 57:20
  I'm wondering if you entertain, it's super entertaining what's
• 57:22
  going on with Trump right now. So if you weren't aware, if you
• 57:26
  weren't on Twitter, if you don't like Trump, you don't follow
• 57:28
  Trump's tweets, which I think you should be following them
• 57:30
  because he's literally moving in the markets by its true social
• 57:34
  post. We got this one this morning,
• 57:37
  which is at 7:23 AM Eastern, I believe, I'm guessing this
• 57:46
  morning we got this treat tweet from Donald Trump and he goes.
• 57:49
  I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the
• 57:52
  country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and
• 57:56
  productive conversations regarding a complete and total
• 57:58
  resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
• 58:01
  Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and
• 58:04
  constructive conversations, which will continue throughout
• 58:08
  the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone
• 58:11
  any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and
• 58:15
  energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the
• 58:19
  success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.
• 58:22
  Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J
• 58:25
  Trump. What's interesting about this is
• 58:30
  you got to remember on Friday he said we're going to have a 48
• 58:35
  hour ultimatum. If Iran doesn't come to the
• 58:39
  table, we're going to blow up their oil infrastructure.
• 58:44
  And then Monday mornings, right before the markets open, we get
• 58:49
  this prolonged 5 day break from the operation, the mission, the
• 58:57
  war, whatever you want to call it in the Middle East, which a
• 59:00
  lot of people have been saying it's very interesting.
• 59:02
  You know, bond markets are going absolutely crazy.
• 59:10
  And then Trump basically says, hey, we're, we're going to,
• 59:12
  we're, we're not going to blow anything up until the markets
• 59:15
  close on Friday. See where I'm going with this?
• 59:20
  We're going to just take a pause because the market's open on
• 59:24
  Monday morning and the bond market is going absolutely nuts.
• 59:29
  S&P 500 is going nuts. And I'll, I'll show you some of
• 59:31
  the the numbers here. And then he's like, hold on.
• 59:35
  We're going to pause for five days until the weekend so that
• 59:41
  the markets get a break. So he's just like, we're
• 59:44
  pausing. We're pausing until Friday night
• 59:46
  and then we're probably going to hear something insane.
• 59:52
  That's the that's the weekly forecast for this.
• 59:54
  OK, let's zoom out to what happened this morning, which is
• 59:58
  obviously just even crazier in my opinion look, I find this
• 1:00:03
  super interesting. I hope you guys do too.
• 1:00:06
  I, you know, what's it I I scratch my own itch here.
• 1:00:10
  I think this is probably the most interesting thing happening
• 1:00:12
  this morning and here we got again.
• 1:00:15
  You guys know I really love Kobayashi letters Twitter
• 1:00:18
  account. I think they've been doing great
• 1:00:20
  journalism, great economic coverage recently in the face of
• 1:00:23
  this war, so. They go, this is absolutely
• 1:00:27
  insane. At 7 O 4:00 AM Eastern Time
• 1:00:31
  today, President Trump said, quote, the US and Iran have had
• 1:00:34
  productive discussions to end the Iran war.
• 1:00:38
  By 7:10 AM Eastern Time, the S&P 500 surge plus 240 points,
• 1:00:44
  adding $2 trillion in the market cap.
• 1:00:48
  And you can see here on the chart, the bottom of the tweet
• 1:00:51
  or the bottom of this green candle was when he tweeted.
• 1:00:54
  And then at the very top, literally 5 minutes later, we
• 1:00:59
  saw S&P 500 add $2 trillion. Then 27 minutes later, Iran
• 1:01:06
  completely denied all of President Trump's claims and
• 1:01:09
  said there has been, quote, no contact with the US.
• 1:01:14
  By 8:00 Eastern, the S&P 500 had fallen to -120 points, erasing a
• 1:01:21
  trillion dollars in market cap. That's $3 trillion swing market
• 1:01:28
  cap in 56 minutes in the S&P 500.
• 1:01:33
  What is happening bro? The S&P 500 is trading like a
• 1:01:37
  shit coin. Oil prices are trading like a
• 1:01:41
  shit coin. We have gold crashing like a
• 1:01:44
  shit coin and Bitcoin just kind of chilling.
• 1:01:47
  We're like what is happening right now?
• 1:01:50
  Like what in the world? And then just to update this,
• 1:01:53
  this was right before I went on the show.
• 1:01:55
  Kobayashi letter retweeted or tweeted again.
• 1:01:58
  S&P 500 extends gains to plus 150 points on the day, rising
• 1:02:03
  2.3%, adding $1.2 trillion in market cap.
• 1:02:08
  Are markets beginning to price in an end to the war?
• 1:02:12
  Or is Trump lying? Is Trump lying here?
• 1:02:15
  I know some people in the chat are gonna be like Trump's lying
• 1:02:19
  or are the markets pricing in the war is going to end exactly
• 1:02:22
  as they said. You know, the four week mark.
• 1:02:26
  I don't know. I'm watching along just like you
• 1:02:28
  are. I'm following the tweets.
• 1:02:30
  I'm trying to make sense of, you know, is he are markets
• 1:02:34
  chilling? It's the war over because I'm
• 1:02:38
  I'm literally I'm going to make a guess.
• 1:02:39
  I'm probably going to be wrong. But by 5:00 PM today, I'm sure
• 1:02:43
  we're going to get another tweet and the markets are going to be
• 1:02:46
  pricing that in and we're going to get even more fun in the
• 1:02:48
  market. So just, you know, in case
• 1:02:51
  you're confused, Geiger capital goes Iran called Trump's,
• 1:02:55
  Trump's bluff on his 48 hour deadline.
• 1:02:57
  And now it's been extended to five days.
• 1:03:00
  The markets are trying to price that in.
• 1:03:02
  And the real, I think the, the real reason for this is not
• 1:03:09
  because what happened in oil. I think that was last week what
• 1:03:13
  we saw happen in oil. I think that is why we got the
• 1:03:16
  announcements and the posturing that we got from Trump last
• 1:03:19
  week. I think that was the reason.
• 1:03:21
  I think this week the reason is because of bond yields.
• 1:03:25
  The bond market is going insane. 10 year yield breaks 4.4%.
• 1:03:32
  Here's the one month chart. This is almost as catastrophic
• 1:03:35
  as higher oil prices. Potentially, arguably higher
• 1:03:39
  bond yields is worse than higher oil prices.
• 1:03:42
  Not maybe not for you as an individual, but for the economy
• 1:03:47
  at large. As QE Infinity says, you know
• 1:03:51
  consumers borrowing money is going to crater lending and
• 1:03:54
  mortgage rates will soar. Good night housing markets,
• 1:03:57
  autos and commercial real estate.
• 1:03:59
  An absolute disaster. This is why I, I, I am part of
• 1:04:05
  this opinion that This is why we got a five day pause in the
• 1:04:08
  quote war operation mission. I don't even know what they're
• 1:04:13
  calling it. I'm I'm going to say war again.
• 1:04:16
  When I say war, don't, don't actually me here, bro.
• 1:04:19
  But I think this is what's happening.
• 1:04:22
  The markets aren't really sure what's going on.
• 1:04:25
  Is it going to be a forever war? Are we going to be there longer
• 1:04:27
  than four weeks? Are there going to be boots on
• 1:04:29
  the ground? Oil went absolutely insane last
• 1:04:33
  week. And then, I don't know, I don't
• 1:04:34
  know if I covered it on the show, but towards the end of
• 1:04:37
  last week, excuse me, towards the end of last week, you know,
• 1:04:40
  the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Oil went insane.
• 1:04:46
  And then we saw a sly Scott Besson announcement, I think it
• 1:04:48
  was Friday afternoon, saying, Oh, yeah, we're going to
• 1:04:52
  unsanction Iranian oil with like, now, Now, you know, hey,
• 1:04:57
  we're winning this war. You know, we bombed.
• 1:05:00
  We bombed all their infrastructure.
• 1:05:01
  They have nothing they can do. But this war is going to
• 1:05:03
  continue on for a while. They're also closing the Strait
• 1:05:08
  of Hormuz, but no one actually cares about the Strait of
• 1:05:11
  Hormuz. But wait, actually, we're going
• 1:05:13
  to go in and secure the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:05:17
  And then Friday evening, Trump said something on the lines of
• 1:05:20
  we actually don't care about the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:05:22
  We're going to let our allies that need it to to handle that
• 1:05:28
  because when you think about it, when you understand the the
• 1:05:34
  technicalities of this, we don't really the US by by we, I mean
• 1:05:38
  the US doesn't get much oil from the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:05:43
  That's really for, you know, China and like Asia and it's and
• 1:05:50
  parts of Europe, our oil doesn't necessarily come through the
• 1:05:54
  Strait of Hormuz, but about I think the number is somewhere
• 1:05:57
  between 20 and 30% of global oil does go through there.
• 1:06:01
  And we were hearing rumors that the Iranians, the Persians were
• 1:06:08
  only allowing some oil to go through, but only for their
• 1:06:13
  partners. So it was going to Russia and
• 1:06:15
  China and I think India. And then shortly afterwards
• 1:06:19
  heard like, no, we're going to unsanction Iranian oil.
• 1:06:21
  We actually don't even want the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:06:25
  And now markets open today. And again, I was expecting the
• 1:06:28
  markets, at least in Bitcoin to get absolutely cratered today.
• 1:06:34
  But Bitcoin goes up and bond yields are going up.
• 1:06:36
  And we know what the Trump administration really wanted to
• 1:06:39
  do, the Mar a Lago Accord. They want bond yields, interest
• 1:06:44
  rates to go lower. They want to print more money,
• 1:06:49
  and they're printing more money, and bond yields are going up.
• 1:06:54
  So to all the plan trusters out there, you know, don't throw
• 1:06:57
  tomatoes at me, but I don't know if there is a plan.
• 1:07:01
  OK, All right. I think they're literally just
• 1:07:07
  doing things. You can just do things.
• 1:07:11
  No, actually, the best take I heard was that from the tariffs
• 1:07:16
  to Venezuela to Iran, what Trump has been doing, and Tom Luongo
• 1:07:24
  retweeted it. I didn't bring it up right now,
• 1:07:26
  but I'm reminding that this is probably a good place to say it,
• 1:07:30
  that everything he's been doing is to facilitate global trade in
• 1:07:35
  a direction that is beneficial for the US.
• 1:07:39
  So that's probably the more optimistic, less cynical view of
• 1:07:42
  this, that all of these operations are.
• 1:07:47
  If you think of them in terms of global trade, then you'll,
• 1:07:50
  you'll start to understand better of what these moves are
• 1:07:54
  doing. And instead of it seeming so
• 1:07:56
  chaotic and random, if you think of it in terms of global trade,
• 1:08:00
  maybe a global reordering, a global shifting of global trade,
• 1:08:06
  then all of this stuff might make a little more sense to you.
• 1:08:09
  I I still have to kind of deep dive a little deeper into that
• 1:08:12
  idea, but that does that does make some sense.
• 1:08:16
  Anyways, I just brought up Tom Wongo, so I think it'd be
• 1:08:20
  fitting that I also bring up Simon Dixon.
• 1:08:24
  You know, these are the kind of the two opposing views
• 1:08:27
  currently, though, as I've mentioned before, they're very
• 1:08:32
  similar views. There's there's just some stark,
• 1:08:35
  you know, contrast. There's there's some divergent
• 1:08:38
  there. But when I hear both of them,
• 1:08:41
  they're kind of saying the same thing.
• 1:08:43
  They just have different endpoints, you know, different
• 1:08:47
  vantage points. But here is Simon Dixon's take.
• 1:08:49
  And he goes, everybody told me I don't understand this war.
• 1:08:52
  Many told me it was World War Three and a nuclear bomb will be
• 1:08:55
  fired. I said the market disagrees and
• 1:08:57
  the outcome has already been agreed.
• 1:08:59
  Trump now says the US and Iran have had a very good and
• 1:09:02
  productive conversation regarding a complete and total
• 1:09:05
  resolution of the Iran war. Trump has ordered the Department
• 1:09:08
  of War to postpone, quote, any and all strikes against Iranian
• 1:09:11
  power plants. Let's see what comes next.
• 1:09:14
  He followed this up or actually, I think this came out earlier.
• 1:09:17
  Yeah, this was yesterday. And he goes, If Trump's serving
• 1:09:20
  the financial industrial complex, then it all starts to
• 1:09:22
  make sense. The military industrial complex
• 1:09:25
  just got a $200 billion stimulus check.
• 1:09:27
  Big oil and liquid natural gas received their own stimulus
• 1:09:30
  boosts. The public picks up the tab
• 1:09:33
  while losses are socialized and profits are privatized, with
• 1:09:36
  another round of money printing flowing straight to the banks.
• 1:09:39
  As a result of the energy crisis, even Russia gets its own
• 1:09:43
  stimulus, fueling further energy sales at record prices and
• 1:09:46
  prolonging the fragmentation of Ukraine.
• 1:09:48
  The World Economic Forum advances its surveillance state
• 1:09:51
  agenda alongside the tech industrial complex off the back
• 1:09:54
  of supply chain disruptions and inflation.
• 1:09:57
  Just like 2020 quote, you will owe nothing and be happy.
• 1:10:02
  Follow the money. Absolutely insane.
• 1:10:06
  And just to add again, I've been talking about the Kobayashi
• 1:10:09
  letter playbook, the conflict playbook.
• 1:10:12
  And he goes, you can't mix up exactly 2023 days into the war.
• 1:10:16
  And our conflict playbook is literally tracking down to the
• 1:10:19
  dead. President Trump has just
• 1:10:21
  announced peace talks between the US and Iran are ongoing with
• 1:10:24
  step nine of our playbook eminent.
• 1:10:26
  While many called for World War three, we called for a two to
• 1:10:28
  four week conflict. And we are right in the middle
• 1:10:30
  of that timeline. The S&P 500 just swung $3
• 1:10:33
  trillion in market cap. Oil prices are below $89.00 a
• 1:10:36
  barrel. Gold is up $300.00 an ounce,
• 1:10:39
  though it's off its highs and bonds are rebounding.
• 1:10:43
  As we have been seen endlessly over the last 12 months,
• 1:10:46
  objective investors are wing the most in this market.
• 1:10:49
  While there will be much more volatility, it appears that step
• 1:10:52
  9 and step ten of our playbook are eminent.
• 1:10:55
  Keep following our playbook. Go read the playbook.
• 1:10:58
  I I can't break that down easily.
• 1:10:59
  It actually probably be like a whole show.
• 1:11:03
  And yeah, that's that's where that's where we are.
• 1:11:06
  Actually. One more before I give you guys
• 1:11:09
  the meme. We have James Van Stratton
• 1:11:11
  again, doing really good tweets, really good analysis.
• 1:11:14
  He does work at Coindesk, so we won't fault him too much.
• 1:11:17
  You guys, the game is so obvious.
• 1:11:18
  There's always a Taco or Trump, always chickens out or a Fed put
• 1:11:22
  just around the corner. The market just had to find its
• 1:11:25
  Max pain point. And today was the bond market.
• 1:11:28
  Tomorrow it's going to be something else.
• 1:11:31
  We are seeing this constantly play out.
• 1:11:34
  Trump does something. There's a huge pain point that
• 1:11:38
  is highlighted. He pulls back.
• 1:11:42
  It's almost, it's almost, you know, Hegelian in that sense.
• 1:11:47
  Is it Hegelian? Maybe I'm tripping.
• 1:11:50
  It's the playbook where it's the art of the deal, really.
• 1:11:54
  And and you could argue maybe he's not doing so well in his
• 1:11:57
  art of the deals, but you over ask for something, they freak
• 1:12:02
  out. You're the person you're
• 1:12:04
  negotiating with freaks out. And then you get something less
• 1:12:08
  than what you initially asked because it seems like a smaller
• 1:12:10
  ass, but that's exactly what you wanted in the 1st place.
• 1:12:14
  It does seem like that is playing out.
• 1:12:16
  But I did tell you I have a mean for you.
• 1:12:18
  So shouts out to our boy Mark Goodwin.
• 1:12:21
  And he goes, you know, picture of the Oval Office with Leutnik
• 1:12:25
  and Fessit and Trump. And he goes, they turned the
• 1:12:28
  Oval Office into a training desk.
• 1:12:33
  Who could be so surprised? Who could be so surprised?
• 1:12:37
  I don't know if you guys saw, and I don't know if this is
• 1:12:39
  real, but there was another meme coming around.
• 1:12:44
  Oh, my voice, I need to, my voice sounds better than a loyal
• 1:12:48
  register. I know.
• 1:12:49
  I just, I get so excited that I get nasally.
• 1:12:51
  I know I'm trying. I'm trying to not get so excited
• 1:12:57
  because then it does go nasally. But thank you.
• 1:12:59
  I appreciate it. I don't know if you saw, sorry,
• 1:13:02
  tangent. I'm like AADD, I'm like a dog,
• 1:13:05
  you know, chasing, chasing the car over here.
• 1:13:08
  Did you see the tweet? I again, I don't know if this is
• 1:13:11
  real, but there was a tweet going around it and I'm I'm
• 1:13:16
  going to keep moving. I, I am rambling here, but there
• 1:13:19
  was a tweet that I saw this morning and it was Trump's desk
• 1:13:24
  and apparently there's a button. Again, this could be AI, this
• 1:13:28
  could be fake, but it's an interesting, it's an interesting
• 1:13:31
  meme to say the least. And he's got a button and it's
• 1:13:35
  apparently short oil button. And every time he presses it, it
• 1:13:40
  just locks in a short on oil. Again, I don't think it's real,
• 1:13:45
  but the image of it, the mental image of it is interesting And
• 1:13:50
  shouts out to our boy Mark Goodwin.
• 1:13:52
  Go read his book, The Bitcoin Dollar System, I believe.
• 1:13:56
  Go follow Mark. He's been on the ball for years
• 1:13:58
  at this point. It does seem like they've turned
• 1:14:03
  the White House into a trading desk.
• 1:14:05
  Dude, Baron Trump is out here making a bag, bro, Making a bag.
• 1:14:12
  I wish I had that that that information.
• 1:14:17
  OK, all right guys, I do got to move on.
• 1:14:22
  We have some interesting news coming out of the EU.
• 1:14:26
  It's pretty terrifying if you live in Europe.
• 1:14:29
  But this does go into the culture of this show of what I
• 1:14:33
  believe Bitcoiners should be doing, which is of course,
• 1:14:35
  taking your Bitcoin into self custody.
• 1:14:37
  So I'll be right back. I want to give a shout out to
• 1:14:40
  our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
• 1:14:43
  Fueled by clean energy, Hive has quadrupled its global Bitcoin
• 1:14:48
  mining footprint and channels that same scale into high
• 1:14:52
  performance compute, where their AI cloud is now ranked number
• 1:14:55
  one in the world for network performance.
• 1:14:58
  At Hive, you've got dual engines, Bitcoin and AI humming,
• 1:15:03
  roaring, accelerating and unison.
• 1:15:05
  They're lean and mean, they're green and clean, and they're
• 1:15:08
  rewriting the playbook on sustainable digital
• 1:15:11
  infrastructure. You can catch the latest buzz at
• 1:15:14
  Hive Digital Tech or at Hive digitaltech.com.
• 1:15:23
  You guys are funny in the chat. Yeah, yeah, we we just need 5
• 1:15:27
  days to flatten Iran. I mean the curve.
• 1:15:30
  That's Riddle. I'm sorry.
• 1:15:32
  I'm sorry. OK, alrighty then.
• 1:15:35
  I dude, I'm going to get so cancelled.
• 1:15:37
  Nico, I didn't say that. Guys, don't clip that.
• 1:15:43
  Hey, we have a little fun. It's joking.
• 1:15:44
  I'm joking. We're joking.
• 1:15:46
  It's a joke. It's a joke.
• 1:15:47
  Guys. I'm sorry.
• 1:15:48
  I'm sorry. All right, Anyways, the rage,
• 1:15:52
  you guys know I love the rage. Shouts out to Lola Lee.
• 1:15:56
  She's doing, I would argue, the best investigative journalism in
• 1:16:01
  Bitcoin from a very hardcore position.
• 1:16:05
  This is why I'm a huge fan of the rage.
• 1:16:08
  You know, let me see how many followers 6000 dudes wholly
• 1:16:13
  under followed everyone that has a Twitter account go follow the
• 1:16:17
  rage. I highlight her work all the
• 1:16:19
  time. Maybe it maybe I know she's like
• 1:16:22
  an on, but maybe we got to get her on the show because she's
• 1:16:25
  killing it. Anyways, they tweeted this this
• 1:16:28
  morning and it goes. The EU prepares to issue
• 1:16:33
  standardized guidance for the surveillance of quote self
• 1:16:36
  hosted wallets. The EU Anti Money Laundering
• 1:16:40
  Authority or the Amla is preparing to issue guidance for
• 1:16:44
  the technical requirements to surveil transactions between
• 1:16:47
  quote self hosted wallets and accounts held with crypto asset
• 1:16:51
  service providers. The guidance will lay out what
• 1:16:54
  steps crypto asset service providers must take to identify
• 1:16:58
  the owner of a self custodial address as required by the EU
• 1:17:02
  Transfer of Funds Regulation in effect since December 2024.
• 1:17:07
  The guidance will be issued by July 2027 and she's got a
• 1:17:11
  screenshot here and it goes by July 10th, 2027.
• 1:17:15
  The Amla shall issue guidelines to specify the mitigating
• 1:17:19
  measures referred to in paragraph one, including A the
• 1:17:23
  criteria and means for identification and verification
• 1:17:26
  of the identity of the originator or beneficiary of a
• 1:17:29
  transfer made from or to a self hosted address, including
• 1:17:34
  through reliance on third parties, taking into account the
• 1:17:37
  latest technological developments.
• 1:17:39
  And B criteria and and means for the verification of whether or
• 1:17:43
  not the self hosted address is owned or controlled by a
• 1:17:47
  customer. So I think, you know, reading
• 1:17:52
  this leniently, it's just like they're, you know, just KYC ING
• 1:17:57
  KYC AM L exchanges like what's new here, right?
• 1:18:06
  I think that's the like the kind of flippant view of this, the
• 1:18:11
  probably more tinfoil hat view of this.
• 1:18:13
  It sounds like the EU wants to KYC every single Bitcoin wallet
• 1:18:20
  or self custody wallet, which is obviously they're not going to
• 1:18:25
  be able to do that. But it just goes to show, what
• 1:18:30
  has the EU been doing 1 They're trying to roll out the digital
• 1:18:34
  ID. The European Central Bank has
• 1:18:37
  been doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on a CBC and
• 1:18:41
  apparently it's going to be coming by the end of this year.
• 1:18:44
  They've been doing whatever they can to outlaw, outlaw privacy.
• 1:18:49
  Now it seems they want to KYC Bitcoin wallets or your keys.
• 1:18:53
  They want to make sure that you verify that you are the holder
• 1:18:59
  of a certain address and they're going to give guidelines for
• 1:19:04
  crypto asset service providers to follow.
• 1:19:08
  So it sounds like if you are an exchange in Europe by 2027, if
• 1:19:16
  you cannot confirm someone's identity that they actually hold
• 1:19:21
  this address and you're sending them digital assets or Bitcoin
• 1:19:25
  to this address and you can't verify it as them, then you're
• 1:19:29
  probably not going to be able to send Bitcoin to that wallet.
• 1:19:35
  That is my short read of this. So it sounds like they're trying
• 1:19:37
  to KYC every European that wants to custody their Bitcoin.
• 1:19:44
  And further, you got to attach your identification, your your
• 1:19:50
  meat self to your Bitcoin wallet.
• 1:19:54
  Literally doing one of my biggest fears for Bitcoin.
• 1:20:00
  They're trying to implement this as law, which is Bitcoin is
• 1:20:04
  either a tool for freedom where we do have some pseudonymity.
• 1:20:08
  We do have some, you know, benefit of the doubt here where
• 1:20:14
  you can use Bitcoin semi privately.
• 1:20:16
  It's not obviously it's not private.
• 1:20:18
  It's a transparent Ledger. But if they don't know what this
• 1:20:22
  address is, who it's from, then you can use Bitcoin in a way
• 1:20:26
  that people maybe can track the money moving in out of the
• 1:20:30
  address. But they don't know necessarily
• 1:20:31
  who it is unless you tell them that this is my address, this is
• 1:20:34
  my wallet. Sounds like the EU is basically
• 1:20:39
  going to force by law that you have to connect your identity to
• 1:20:43
  a Bitcoin wallet address or a self custodial wallet.
• 1:20:48
  It's absolutely insane. Again, as much as I'm a pro
• 1:20:54
  Bitcoin advocate, as much as I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, I am
• 1:20:58
  also very hyper aware of the fact that Bitcoin can be used as
• 1:21:03
  a tool of freedom or it could be used as a totally surveilled
• 1:21:09
  system. It's completely transparent if
• 1:21:13
  everyone is KYC Ed in Bitcoin, if every wallet is KYC, If you
• 1:21:16
  can't use a wallet in Bitcoin, which theoretically doesn't make
• 1:21:20
  sense, but if you can't interact or rather you go to jail if you
• 1:21:24
  don't KYC your Bitcoin, then seemingly a lot of people would
• 1:21:28
  just connect their government ID to a wallet.
• 1:21:30
  That doesn't really account for the fact that I can spin up more
• 1:21:33
  wallets, etcetera, etcetera. But then that probably cuts you
• 1:21:37
  off from, you know, ever connecting to a quote crypto
• 1:21:40
  asset service provider. And if everyone is KYC and if
• 1:21:44
  every person's Bitcoin had or Bitcoin address has an identity
• 1:21:49
  attached to it. We just created our gilded cage.
• 1:21:52
  We just created the digital panopticon that we're trying to
• 1:21:55
  fight. This is why we are such huge
• 1:21:58
  advocates for privacy. This is why we are such huge
• 1:22:03
  advocates for Lightning Network and a Layer 2 that has privacy
• 1:22:08
  built into it. This is why we completely
• 1:22:12
  freaked out when the Samurai wallet debs got arrested.
• 1:22:14
  This is why we brought up the Tornado Cash case, even though
• 1:22:17
  it had to do with Ethereum, because you were seeing that not
• 1:22:21
  only in the US but in Europe, in the West, and obviously around
• 1:22:25
  the world, there is this move. There is this fight against
• 1:22:31
  privacy. They do not want you to have
• 1:22:33
  privacy, and they're trying to dress it up in all kinds of
• 1:22:38
  flowery language so that you feel bad for wanting to have
• 1:22:43
  some privacy for. So you feel bad about or you
• 1:22:46
  feel like a criminal for wanting to have some semblance of
• 1:22:51
  privacy for not wanting to, you know, let it all hang out and
• 1:22:54
  let the government institutions know everything about you
• 1:22:57
  because what? What do you have to hide, bro?
• 1:23:00
  Well, you know, I'm a simple man.
• 1:23:03
  Without getting too graphic, I'm pretty free at my house and I
• 1:23:08
  like some curtains, OK? I'm not always, I'm not always
• 1:23:11
  dressed up, you know, in a three piece suit at my house, if you
• 1:23:14
  catch my drift. OK.
• 1:23:16
  I like privacy. I like the ability to pick and
• 1:23:20
  choose what people know what they don't know.
• 1:23:23
  This doesn't make me a criminal. And I think we should have that
• 1:23:27
  right when it comes to our finances.
• 1:23:31
  Does it make me a criminal? Because I don't want everyone to
• 1:23:34
  know everything about me. I think it makes me a normal
• 1:23:37
  person. And they're going to continue to
• 1:23:40
  do stuff like this. They're going to continue to
• 1:23:43
  make it seem like you're a bad person if you want to maintain
• 1:23:47
  some kind of privacy. Now this is just crazy to me.
• 1:23:49
  Like they're going to make a law so that they KYC every single
• 1:23:52
  self custody wallet, every European Bitcoin address will
• 1:23:57
  have a European government ID attached to it.
• 1:24:03
  Nothing could go wrong, I'm sure.
• 1:24:05
  Nothing, nothing could go wrong. I'm I'm sure.
• 1:24:09
  I'm sure the government is super good when it comes to their
• 1:24:11
  data. They've never had data breaches,
• 1:24:15
  identity leaks. I'm sure nothing can go wrong
• 1:24:19
  here. Just trust the EU, trust Christy
• 1:24:25
  Lagarde and what's her name, Ursula van der Leyen, with your
• 1:24:31
  ID connected to your finance. I'm I'm sure it's going to be
• 1:24:34
  good. I'm sure it's going to be a good
• 1:24:36
  time. I'm sure nothing can go wrong.
• 1:24:38
  I'm sure everything's going to be OK.
• 1:24:39
  I'm sure they got this under control.
• 1:24:41
  They're professionals, they're from the institutions, they're
• 1:24:44
  trusted. They would never do you wrong.
• 1:24:48
  Yeah. Miss me with that.
• 1:24:51
  OK. Miss me with that.
• 1:24:53
  It is always about control and it will always be about control.
• 1:24:58
  They do not want the peasants to revolt.
• 1:25:00
  They do not want the layman to have any sense of freedom.
• 1:25:03
  They want to stay at the top of the castle.
• 1:25:07
  It's absolutely sick. EUI know, I know.
• 1:25:10
  I have some European people that watch the show.
• 1:25:13
  And I don't ever mean to attack you when I say this, but
• 1:25:18
  Europe's cooked, guys. And I'm, as an American, I just
• 1:25:23
  really don't want to see what we're seeing happen in Europe
• 1:25:26
  happen in the US. And there is a growing trend of
• 1:25:30
  mass surveillance happening, a digital pentopticon being built
• 1:25:33
  out, an AI data-driven surveillance system being built
• 1:25:40
  out, not only in Europe, but in the US.
• 1:25:43
  And it is a scary future. If that is the future we are
• 1:25:47
  going in, it's not a good future.
• 1:25:52
  It's as dystopian a sci-fi film as you could ever watch.
• 1:25:56
  And it could be our lives. It could be our day-to-day or
• 1:25:59
  maybe not our maybe our children's and their children's.
• 1:26:03
  But that's not the world I want to live in.
• 1:26:05
  So doing my duty here to highlight this.
• 1:26:09
  I think the the fix is always the same thing.
• 1:26:13
  Stack Bitcoin. Take it into custody.
• 1:26:17
  Don't share your identity with your Bitcoin wallets.
• 1:26:20
  Just continue to do this. If enough of us do this, we're
• 1:26:24
  unstoppable. As of now, though, we don't have
• 1:26:28
  the numbers on our side yet. We have the technology, We don't
• 1:26:31
  have the numbers we need. More people taking Bitcoin into
• 1:26:34
  custody, more people avoiding Wall Street ETF products, more
• 1:26:39
  people securing their Bitcoin, more people transacting with
• 1:26:41
  their Bitcoin. And that's how we win.
• 1:26:45
  No one said it was going to be easy.
• 1:26:47
  No one said it was going to happen overnight.
• 1:26:49
  I think this is what we're going to be doing for the next 1020.
• 1:26:52
  Thirty years. Who knows, maybe, maybe I'm
• 1:26:56
  being a little cynical, maybe I'm being pessimist.
• 1:26:57
  Fields here. Maybe this happens a lot quicker
• 1:27:00
  than I think. Maybe in five years, by 20-30,
• 1:27:03
  it's end game times and Bitcoin's winning and we live in
• 1:27:06
  utopia. We live in a better world.
• 1:27:10
  OK, I won't say utopia, but we live in a better world.
• 1:27:14
  I'm hopeful. You got to have hope.
• 1:27:16
  You got to have hope, or else what's the point of waking up
• 1:27:19
  everyday? So we're putting in the good
• 1:27:21
  fight. Make sure you tell people to
• 1:27:23
  hold their Bitcoin in their own custody.
• 1:27:27
  Maybe they don't need to do all of it, but they should have a
• 1:27:30
  good portion of their holdings in their own control.
• 1:27:35
  And don't ever let any government tell you that you
• 1:27:38
  need to connect your identity to your Bitcoin because it's from a
• 1:27:43
  safety, bro. Miss me with that.
• 1:27:46
  OK. So hey, we're going to, we're
• 1:27:49
  going to be covering the good and the bad as we continue.
• 1:27:52
  It's it might get a little darker.
• 1:27:53
  I'm not going to lie. You know, last weekend, maybe
• 1:27:57
  last week where the world is going.
• 1:28:02
  I, I did, I did get a little black pill.
• 1:28:04
  I was a little, I was a little doomish.
• 1:28:06
  And I'm, I'm really trying not to complain.
• 1:28:07
  I'm really trying not to be a doomer because doomers never
• 1:28:10
  win. Doomers are losers.
• 1:28:12
  We are optimists. We are winners.
• 1:28:14
  We are going to win. Remember, the good guys win in
• 1:28:16
  the end. There's always dark, darkest
• 1:28:19
  before the dawn. So buckle up, get yourself ready
• 1:28:25
  mentally, physically, financially, try to get yourself
• 1:28:31
  in a position where if the worst comes to worst, you're still in
• 1:28:37
  a good place, whether that means, you know, whatever that
• 1:28:40
  means to you personally. Be sovereign.
• 1:28:43
  I know some people think sovereignty means, hey, I live
• 1:28:45
  in a farm. Maybe that's not what I want to,
• 1:28:49
  that's not what I want to do. I'm a city boy, but we all got
• 1:28:53
  to do what we can for ourselves to get ourselves in a position
• 1:28:57
  where we have total, not maybe not total, but Max freedom,
• 1:29:02
  where we do have flexibility, where we are capable of being
• 1:29:06
  mobile. I think that's the move.
• 1:29:08
  It's it's what's the saying? You know, I'd rather be a
• 1:29:12
  warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war.
• 1:29:15
  That's what we're doing here, guys.
• 1:29:16
  So I don't mean to end the show a little doomer ish today, but
• 1:29:22
  we can't sugarcoat this. Let's look at reality with a
• 1:29:25
  clear, you know, clear eyed view.
• 1:29:27
  Let's look at it. Yes, we have a orange tint
• 1:29:30
  orange lens on it. But you know, let's look at
• 1:29:32
  reality as clearly as possible and remember, always remember,
• 1:29:40
  be not afraid my friends. It's nothing to fear.
• 1:29:44
  So if you get, if you get afraid, and I felt that in
• 1:29:46
  myself last week. I was like seeing the stuff.
• 1:29:49
  Like there was a a split second where like it's like, oh, whoa,
• 1:29:52
  like I'm kind of afraid. I always had to remember, like
• 1:29:59
  you can't logically think if you are afraid if you're in fear
• 1:30:02
  mode. We move from a place of love,
• 1:30:04
  guys. We're going to win.
• 1:30:07
  Going to be easy. But we got this all right.
• 1:30:10
  Anyway. City slicker, Luke, I am a city
• 1:30:14
  slicker. Yes, I am a city boy.
• 1:30:17
  I have not ever milked a cow, though I did grow up on a farm
• 1:30:23
  for a little bit and I didn't milk cows, but, you know, I did
• 1:30:27
  feed horses and pigs and llamas. My, my aunt had a farm when I
• 1:30:31
  grew up and I was up at 5:00 AM in the cold feeding them and I
• 1:30:36
  absolutely hated it. Never again.
• 1:30:40
  You know, no, no ill will to people that enjoy that and like
• 1:30:44
  that dude, it wasn't for me. I'm not good in the morning when
• 1:30:49
  it's early and I'm not good in the cold.
• 1:30:52
  So I, I, I'm very willing to pay a good price to my farmer, to my
• 1:30:57
  butcher. I know they're very useful.
• 1:31:00
  I'm hey, I'm their ideal customer.
• 1:31:02
  OK, All right guys. OK, I'm rambling.
• 1:31:08
  I'm having fun. We're we have a little fun.
• 1:31:10
  We're having a little fun here. OK, we're having a little fun.
• 1:31:12
  It is Monday. You all know the deal.
• 1:31:16
  We will be back all week Monday through Friday.
• 1:31:19
  We go live at around 12:40. I know it says 12/16, but it
• 1:31:24
  takes me to like, I post it and it takes me some time to get
• 1:31:27
  everything I need for the show. So I'm not just sitting here at
• 1:31:31
  12:16 and I'm making you guys wait 30 minutes.
• 1:31:34
  I get the show up so that you guys know it's up.
• 1:31:37
  You know, an hour, hopefully an hour is Shirley.
• 1:31:40
  And then I prepare the show. But I go live usually 12:40
• 1:31:44
  Monday through Friday. This has been simply Bitcoin
• 1:31:47
  Live if you like the channel. Oh wait, almost forgot one thing
• 1:31:51
  I almost forgot. Shout out to the boys over at
• 1:31:53
  Bitcoin Magazine. We will be at Bitcoin Las Vegas
• 1:31:56
  this year 2026. It will be held at the Venetian
• 1:32:01
  April 27th through the 29th. Make sure you get your passes
• 1:32:07
  and if you do buy your tickets, I would say buy them now.
• 1:32:10
  Prices are going to go up. Maybe the no, I don't following
• 1:32:15
  out the best sell so I'm not going to say anyways.
• 1:32:17
  Just use the promo code simply all caps, I believe and you get
• 1:32:20
  10% off Again, scan AQR code or go to what's the website Go to
• 1:32:26
  2026 dot B dot TC to get your tickets to Bitcoin Las Vegas
• 1:32:33
  today. All right guys, I I forgot where
• 1:32:37
  I was going with this stuff earlier, but anyways love you
• 1:32:40
  guys I'll see you tomorrow we'll be back every Oh yeah, Oh yeah.
• 1:32:45
  I know what I was going to say. If you like the show subscribe.
• 1:32:48
  If you don't like me, that's that's all right.
• 1:32:50
  I'm OK with this. You know my ego's not that
• 1:32:53
  fragile. We have a bunch of other content
• 1:32:55
  creators on our channel. Pick and choose who you like.
• 1:32:59
  OK? We got Dante, Ocean's Reston,
• 1:33:02
  Sophie, and then you got the live show with me and Nico.
• 1:33:06
  It's basically my show. This live show is my show now.
• 1:33:09
  Nico. Nico.
• 1:33:10
  Dude, guys, between you and us, between you and me, we're taking
• 1:33:15
  Nico out to the past year, bro. No, no, I'm trolling.
• 1:33:20
  I'm trolling. I need Nico.
• 1:33:21
  I, I love Nico. I, I, I think the show's better
• 1:33:23
  when there's back and forth. Anyways.
• 1:33:25
  Anyways, peace out guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
• 1:33:30
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:33:34
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:33:37
  independence.