Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/12/26: New Ayatollah Breaks Silence, Trump Escalation Trap, Iron Dome Failures, California FBI Warning

Transcript

3/12/26: New Ayatollah Breaks Silence, Trump Escalation Trap, Iron Dome Failures, California FBI Warning · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
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0:37
Speaker 3: There was a little bit of a mixed up with
0:39
Speaker 3: the time, but we did have some breaking news learned
0:40
Speaker 3: add to the show. The new Ayahtola of Iran has
0:43
Speaker 3: actually issued his very first statement. So let's go and
0:45
Speaker 3: put this up here on the screen, and I'm going
0:47
Speaker 3: to read some of the translation, which has come directly
0:50
Speaker 3: from his Twitter feed. So let's start first with this
0:53
Speaker 3: a defiant message. Dear fighter brothers, the desire of the
0:57
Speaker 3: masses is the continuation of the effective and regrets inducing defense. Furthermore,
1:01
Speaker 3: the leverage of blocking the strait of her moves must
1:04
Speaker 3: certainly continue to be used. Studies have been conducted regarding
1:08
Speaker 3: the opening of additional fronts in areas where the enemy
1:11
Speaker 3: has negligible experience and will be highly vulnerable. Their activation
1:15
Speaker 3: will be carried out if the state of the war
1:16
Speaker 3: persists and in accordance with the observance of interests. Specifically,
1:21
Speaker 3: he mentions the Resistance Front and Yemen, obviously making a
1:25
Speaker 3: reference to the who these He says, Undoubtedly, the companionship
1:29
Speaker 3: of the components of the Resistance Front with one another
1:32
Speaker 3: shortens the path to deliverance from the Zionist affliction. Brave
1:35
Speaker 3: and faithful Yemen has not yet ceased defending the oppressed
1:38
Speaker 3: people of Gaza. Has Bullah the devoted has come to
1:40
Speaker 3: the aid of the Islamic Republic despite all obstacles, and
1:43
Speaker 3: the Iraqi Resistance too has boldly pursued the same path.
1:47
Speaker 3: He continues, I assure everyone we will not forego vengeance
1:50
Speaker 3: for the blood of our martyrs. The vengeance that we
1:53
Speaker 3: have in mind is not limited to the martyrdom of
1:55
Speaker 3: the great leader of the revolution. Rather, every member of
1:58
Speaker 3: the nation who is martyred by the u S enemy
2:00
Speaker 3: constitutes an independent subject in the file of vengeance. Only
2:04
Speaker 3: a limited amount of blood revenge for the martyrs has
2:06
Speaker 3: so far taken place, But until it is achieved, this
2:09
Speaker 3: case will remain on the top of all of the cases.
2:12
Speaker 3: The crime that the enemy has deliberately committed regarding the
2:14
Speaker 3: mignab tiab Tree School and other cases holds a special
2:18
Speaker 3: status in the reckoning. We expect reparations from the enemy,
2:21
Speaker 3: and if it refuses, we will continue from its assets
2:24
Speaker 3: as we deem necessary, and if that too proves impossible,
2:28
Speaker 3: we will destroy an equivalent portion of its assets. He continues.
2:32
Speaker 3: The enemy has gradually established bases in some neighboring countries
2:35
Speaker 3: over the years. In the recent offensive, some of those
2:38
Speaker 3: military bases were put to use. We naturally, we have
2:40
Speaker 3: targeted the attacks precisely as we had issued explicit warnings,
2:45
Speaker 3: without making encroachment on these countries themselves, solely striking those bases.
2:49
Speaker 3: The countries of the region must clarify their stance regarding
2:53
Speaker 3: the aggressors against our homeland and the killers of our people.
2:55
Speaker 3: I recommend they shut down those bases as soon as possible,
2:58
Speaker 3: for they must surely have realized by now that America's
3:01
Speaker 3: claim of establishing security and peace has been nothing but
3:04
Speaker 3: a lie. And he finishes leaders. We pledge to you,
3:08
Speaker 3: we will strive with all our being to elevate this flag,
3:10
Speaker 3: the main flag in the front of truth, and to
3:12
Speaker 3: achieve the sacred goals of your excellency. So it makes
3:15
Speaker 3: reference to his father, continues to say that the straits
3:18
Speaker 3: of Hormuz.
3:19
Speaker 1: I think it's incredibly noteworthy.
3:20
Speaker 3: That's the very first thing that he comes out, calls
3:22
Speaker 3: for a closure of American bases, obviously very defiant our
3:26
Speaker 3: reference to the girls' school, and perhaps most importantly, they're
3:29
Speaker 3: not backing down. This is and look, let's note this
3:33
Speaker 3: the Iyatola, this is his first written statement. We don't
3:36
Speaker 3: know his condition. They did acknowledge that he was injured
3:39
Speaker 3: at least some respect. I think they said he had
3:41
Speaker 3: limited facial wounds and may have been minorly injured in
3:44
Speaker 3: the attack. We haven't seen seen his face, we haven't
3:47
Speaker 3: heard his voice. There was at least some reporting that
3:50
Speaker 3: the IRGC pushed very hard for his election, So it
3:53
Speaker 3: is possible that he is some sort of a puppet
3:55
Speaker 3: figure for the IRGC. Regardless, the terms themselves that have
4:00
Speaker 3: been set forth are now the terms ascribed to the
4:03
Speaker 3: leader of Iran. And if the IRGC is fully in
4:06
Speaker 3: control of the nation, this is their position about the
4:09
Speaker 3: Straits of horror moves and continuation of the conflict. So
4:12
Speaker 3: we are in nowhere near any sort of ceasefire. Very
4:15
Speaker 3: defiant message, I will say, it is almost ironic. A
4:18
Speaker 3: friend of mine said something like, took twenty years to
4:20
Speaker 3: replace the Taliban with the Taliban, only took eight days
4:23
Speaker 3: to replace Hamani with honey.
4:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, and here we are. He sounds exactly like his.
4:28
Speaker 2: Father, I mean, you know, and the reporting is he
4:30
Speaker 2: may be more belligerents or only the state of mind
4:32
Speaker 2: after seeing your family members murdered and you know, not
4:36
Speaker 2: only do they does he start with we're going to
4:38
Speaker 2: maintain control of the strait up removes it's going to
4:40
Speaker 2: remain shut down, also signaling hey, we're going to you know,
4:44
Speaker 2: we may open up new fronts that we are going
4:47
Speaker 2: to avenge, you know, the deaths of not only our leader,
4:50
Speaker 2: but obvious the little girls that you killed and all
4:52
Speaker 2: of the other In their words, martyrs that have been taken.
4:56
Speaker 2: He also called for the Gulf Arab States to give
4:59
Speaker 2: up their US basis, which was another noteworthy part of
5:03
Speaker 2: this speech, and obviously part of their strategy has been
5:06
Speaker 2: to I think pretty effectively put a lot of pressure
5:09
Speaker 2: on those Gulf States and make them realize, like you
5:13
Speaker 2: thought you were getting protection from the US, this has
5:16
Speaker 2: made you a target. You are now complicit and if
5:18
Speaker 2: there are attacks coming from your you know, from your airspace,
5:22
Speaker 2: we're going to consider that, you know, attack from you,
5:24
Speaker 2: and we're going to respond in kind. So calling for that,
5:28
Speaker 2: also calling for reparations, which I don't think that are
5:31
Speaker 2: going to be a forthcoming from the US. There had
5:33
Speaker 2: previously been reports that you know, their ceasefire conditions included
5:36
Speaker 2: a payment of reparations for the damages that had been
5:40
Speaker 2: done to their country, and so so yeah, to very
5:44
Speaker 2: contrary to the impression that Trump is giving out that
5:47
Speaker 2: you know, they're they're weak, their hobble, they're on their
5:50
Speaker 2: last legs, that we could end this at any time,
5:52
Speaker 2: that this is just a little, you know, excursion, as
5:54
Speaker 2: Trump keeps putting it, a little excursion, But for them,
5:57
Speaker 2: it's a war. Uh, you know, I think this is
5:59
Speaker 2: a paints a very a very different portrait noteworthy, Like
6:02
Speaker 2: you said that he has not yet been seen in public.
6:04
Speaker 2: This statement was read by a news anchor on Ronnie
6:08
Speaker 2: and you know, state aligned media, and so continue to
6:11
Speaker 2: be questions about, you know, how severely he was injured,
6:13
Speaker 2: et cetera.
6:14
Speaker 4: But that's that's where we are.
6:16
Speaker 1: Yep, that's right.
6:17
Speaker 3: And President Trump, I think, did we get this somewhere
6:20
Speaker 3: else in the segment? We're taping this a little bit
6:21
Speaker 3: out of order. I can just read this new message.
6:24
Speaker 3: Missive The United States is the largest oil producer in
6:27
Speaker 3: the world by far, so when oil prices go up, we.
6:29
Speaker 1: Make a lot of money.
6:31
Speaker 3: But our greatest greater interest and importance to me as
6:34
Speaker 3: president is stopping stopping spelled wrong, and even Empire Iran
6:39
Speaker 3: from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and
6:41
Speaker 3: indeed the world. I won't let that happen. Thank you
6:44
Speaker 3: for your attention to this matter. So, yeah, high gas
6:47
Speaker 3: prices are good for you. Actually, have you seen the
6:50
Speaker 3: Texas Tech corollary to this entire discussion. No, there's a
6:54
Speaker 3: joke that the higher oil prices go that Texas Tech
6:57
Speaker 3: nil money, that they will literally never lose a game
7:00
Speaker 3: again because the oil barons of the Panhandle of Texas
7:03
Speaker 3: will donate becomes so filthy rich, they're going to give
7:07
Speaker 3: all their money to the Texas Tech and Ile Fund,
7:09
Speaker 3: and that the Red Raiders are going to be the
7:11
Speaker 3: best team in the country.
7:12
Speaker 1: So great, apparently that's where things are.
7:14
Speaker 2: I don't think that their profits are going to help
7:16
Speaker 2: you fill your guests.
7:17
Speaker 1: Oh their death of the day. I can tell you
7:19
Speaker 1: who's going to do well.
7:20
Speaker 3: Back to the car dealers of Midland, every Ford f
7:23
Speaker 3: one fifty dealer. There will be casinos and strippers who
7:28
Speaker 3: will all be flying to the Panhandle or any other
7:31
Speaker 3: of these places. Texas Tech, the rest of us are
7:33
Speaker 3: going to be playing about the current gases around ninety
7:38
Speaker 3: something three ninety right now in terms of where if
7:41
Speaker 3: he were to pag it to crude oil feature future.
7:44
Speaker 3: So great, that's apparently, you know, the most winning message
7:47
Speaker 3: midterm message of all time.
7:50
Speaker 1: Insane.
7:50
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to Professor Robert Pape. Joining us
7:56
Speaker 3: now is Professor Robert Pape. He is a professor of
7:58
Speaker 3: political science at the Inner of Chicago, but he is
8:01
Speaker 3: also the author of The Escalation Trap, which is a
8:04
Speaker 3: sub stack where there will be a link down in
8:06
Speaker 3: the description. All of you should go and subscribe right now.
8:08
Speaker 3: Thank you very much for joining us, sir.
8:10
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
8:12
Speaker 5: Thank you for having.
8:12
Speaker 1: Me absolutely so. Sir.
8:14
Speaker 3: You are an expert, particularly in air power and in
8:17
Speaker 3: what you call the escalation trap. You studied I think
8:19
Speaker 3: every what every US bombing campaign going back all the way.
8:23
Speaker 1: To World War Two, and you've talked.
8:24
Speaker 5: About World War one, World War My books Bombing Wing
8:27
Speaker 5: goes back to World War One. I've spent years teaching
8:30
Speaker 5: for the US Air Force conventional targeting strategy. In particular,
8:35
Speaker 5: I have spent twenty years modeling the bombing of Iran,
8:38
Speaker 5: so this is something I know quite a bit about.
8:40
Speaker 5: I also study economic sanctions, terrorism, so all of that
8:45
Speaker 5: is why I built the escalation Trap. Because those frameworks
8:49
Speaker 5: I've been using for so long for chiefs of staff
8:52
Speaker 5: of the Air Force, for white houses and so forth,
8:55
Speaker 5: I thought really time to bring them to.
8:57
Speaker 3: Everybody, right, which is why you're such an important guest
9:00
Speaker 3: for us. And we do have some latest news Before
9:02
Speaker 3: we get into some of your theory about the escalation trap,
9:05
Speaker 3: we want your reaction to guys. Let's go and put
9:07
Speaker 3: d one up there on the screen. We've now seen
9:09
Speaker 3: an expansion of Iran declaring that US and Israeli economic
9:13
Speaker 3: banking interest in the region are targets. We have seen
9:16
Speaker 3: this now repeatedly, sir, where we've moved from initial military
9:20
Speaker 3: targets to then the striking of either civilian infrastructure by
9:23
Speaker 3: the United States or Israel inside of Iran, now an
9:26
Speaker 3: expansion to the banking sector. So it does appear as
9:29
Speaker 3: if your theory about escalation and airpower continues to spiral
9:33
Speaker 3: as this war now enters what's is thirteenth day now
9:36
Speaker 3: so far, so your reaction to this particular piece.
9:39
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is confirmation of what I've been saying. So
9:42
Speaker 5: when states try to use air power alone to topple regimes,
9:48
Speaker 5: it has never and on Tuesday, my words, carefully, never
9:51
Speaker 5: worked in over one hundred years, and we've tried many,
9:54
Speaker 5: many times. I'm glad to go through the cases, but
9:57
Speaker 5: what you get is often this lash back effect that
10:00
Speaker 5: you're not prepared for because you're overconfident. You think you're
10:03
Speaker 5: going to win quick and decisively, so you don't prepare
10:07
Speaker 5: for the worst cases. And now the worst cases are coming,
10:10
Speaker 5: and so we're always behind. Now what Iran is specifically
10:15
Speaker 5: doing in this lashing back is a horizontal escalation concept.
10:21
Speaker 5: It's actually a concept called parallel attack that we developed
10:25
Speaker 5: in the nineteen nineties in the Air Force to use
10:29
Speaker 5: with precision targeting and so with precision targeting, and they
10:33
Speaker 5: have precision drone. So we're effectively seeing two precision air
10:36
Speaker 5: campaigns collide for the first time in history. So their
10:40
Speaker 5: precision air campaign against US is parallel bombing at the
10:45
Speaker 5: same time multiple nodes, not one at a time like
10:49
Speaker 5: we did in World War Two. They're hitting multiple nodes
10:52
Speaker 5: in a network. They're treating their enemy as a system
10:57
Speaker 5: like we taught in the nineties to treat others as
11:00
Speaker 5: a system. You see, this is what their intel has
11:03
Speaker 5: been scooping up. They've been learning from us and studying
11:06
Speaker 5: how to do this, and now what they're doing is
11:08
Speaker 5: they're widening that horizontal escalation and those nodes. Because the
11:14
Speaker 5: more nodes you can attack at the same time in parallel,
11:19
Speaker 5: the more system shock you produce. So what you are
11:23
Speaker 5: seeing is Trump has triggered a lashing back that is
11:29
Speaker 5: now producing system level shock. This is one of the
11:33
Speaker 5: things I explained, and that system level shock is not
11:37
Speaker 5: just in Iran. It's not even just in the region.
11:40
Speaker 5: It's now going global, and so this is really probably
11:46
Speaker 5: going to go down as the most disastrous air campaign
11:50
Speaker 5: in history. Not quite there yet, but we're heading to
11:54
Speaker 5: major system shock and the panics that everybody's talking about.
11:58
Speaker 5: With trade of horm moves. This is just the beginning here.
12:02
Speaker 5: You see there no, there's no control. The biggest thing
12:05
Speaker 5: I want to say, and then I'll stop, is that
12:07
Speaker 5: we've lost control of escalation. You see. One of the
12:11
Speaker 5: things I'm trying to explain in these writings is that
12:14
Speaker 5: there's the illusion the attacker has control. And now you
12:18
Speaker 5: see each time President Trump says he's about to stop
12:21
Speaker 5: the war, nobody listens anymore. Prices are going up, nobody's
12:24
Speaker 5: paying attention because we all now know, whether we say
12:27
Speaker 5: it or not, he's losing control more and more to
12:30
Speaker 5: Iran and also more and more to the system shock.
12:35
Speaker 5: You see, actors are going their own way, and that's
12:40
Speaker 5: part of the system level shock that is occurring.
12:44
Speaker 2: Well, let me get your reaction to some of what
12:47
Speaker 2: President Trump is specifically saying, because he paints a very
12:51
Speaker 2: different portrait. I would say that what you're painting here
12:53
Speaker 2: for as Professor put D two up on the screen.
12:56
Speaker 4: He spoke with with Axios.
12:58
Speaker 2: He told them in a phone interview yesterday, the war
13:01
Speaker 2: with Iran will end soon because there is practically nothing
13:05
Speaker 2: left to target little this and that. Anytime I want
13:08
Speaker 2: it to end, it will end, he said during the
13:10
Speaker 2: five minute call. What is your reaction to his presentation
13:14
Speaker 2: of how this is all going, Well, this.
13:16
Speaker 5: Is what I call the victory narrative, but it's meeting
13:20
Speaker 5: escalation reality. And the reality is that he's one actor
13:26
Speaker 5: in the system now, but Iran is another actor who's
13:31
Speaker 5: actually driving the escalation pretty strongly. So if he's want
13:35
Speaker 5: to shut this war down, he's got to shut down
13:38
Speaker 5: the attacks on Iran. Well, he's already tried to break Iran.
13:41
Speaker 5: That's not working. So what's he going to give Iran
13:45
Speaker 5: to get them to stop? You See, he had a
13:47
Speaker 5: deal on the table the friday before that he started
13:50
Speaker 5: the bombing. He can't I'd be very surprised and go
13:53
Speaker 5: back to that deal now. And then on top of that,
13:55
Speaker 5: imagine he could even get the Iranians to come back
13:58
Speaker 5: to a third round of negotiators. Keeping in mind we've
14:01
Speaker 5: killed the previous negotiators twice now. But keep in mind,
14:04
Speaker 5: let's say he pulls that out at the How's he
14:06
Speaker 5: going to get Israel to stop killing the leaders the
14:09
Speaker 5: next time? You see? So is he going to slap
14:12
Speaker 5: sanctions on Israel and say you kill more Iranian le
14:15
Speaker 5: So he's got and these are just and I haven't
14:18
Speaker 5: talked about the Gulf States and others and Russia. Oh
14:21
Speaker 5: my goodness, gracious, So as this has become a system
14:25
Speaker 5: level problem, those actors multiply who have control and increasingly
14:33
Speaker 5: more control than the United States. So just imagine I
14:36
Speaker 5: just named Iran, Israel, and Russia that he has to
14:42
Speaker 5: get to call this thing off. How's he going to
14:46
Speaker 5: do that? Exactly? What's the plan here? Again? This is
14:50
Speaker 5: victory narrative. We're in now the midst of escalation reality,
14:55
Speaker 5: and that victory narrative, we're just going to find fewer
14:58
Speaker 5: and fewer people paying any attention. They may listen. Trump
15:02
Speaker 5: loyalists may say they verbalize it, but that's like as
15:06
Speaker 5: if you see, it's not real, and it's we all
15:09
Speaker 5: know that because the prices are going up. And then
15:11
Speaker 5: when the price of the gas is going up, everybody's
15:15
Speaker 5: going to know victory narrative is meeting escalation reality.
15:19
Speaker 1: Very very true.
15:20
Speaker 3: So let's turn to some of your own points here
15:23
Speaker 3: about the risk guys. Can we put his slideshow D
15:25
Speaker 3: four up there on the screen, so you start with
15:28
Speaker 3: multiple risks that we are now seeing energy shock.
15:31
Speaker 1: About twenty percent of the world's oil passes through the
15:34
Speaker 1: strait of Hormoves.
15:35
Speaker 3: If that flow is disrupted even partially, the economic shock
15:38
Speaker 3: would hit obviously the entire globe energy markets watching that.
15:41
Speaker 3: Risk number two is horizontal escalation, which I believe you've
15:44
Speaker 3: just talked about. Risk three is global infrastructure vulnerability. Risk
15:48
Speaker 3: four is military and economic strain, and risk five is
15:52
Speaker 3: strategic distraction. Can you just break some of that stuff
15:55
Speaker 3: down for us so we can get into it.
15:57
Speaker 5: Yeah, So what you are seeing is not this disaster
16:03
Speaker 5: that is unfolding is multi dimensional. Now, we've had disasters
16:08
Speaker 5: in the past, but they have been more uni or
16:11
Speaker 5: single dimensional. The reason I'm laying this out in threads
16:15
Speaker 5: here is because the threads allow us to see the
16:18
Speaker 5: different dimensions of the risk and their dimensions like a
16:23
Speaker 5: layer cake that are intersecting in real time. You see
16:28
Speaker 5: and it's becoming and the point on you've laid out
16:31
Speaker 5: the risk, and I'll just mention the point on the distraction.
16:34
Speaker 5: As the risks come together, they overload us, we get overwhelmed. Well,
16:41
Speaker 5: that's why I put out these frameworks in the escalation
16:45
Speaker 5: trap and then tie them to the events that are occurring,
16:48
Speaker 5: because as I have over the years. I started to
16:51
Speaker 5: develop these when I taught for the US Air Force
16:54
Speaker 5: because I saw that the in war in crisis, people
16:59
Speaker 5: are overloaded and that's when the frameworks, believe it or not,
17:03
Speaker 5: become the most important because they need those to make
17:07
Speaker 5: sense of these complex chaos. Otherwise they're just bouncing all
17:11
Speaker 5: around you see. So what you're seeing with that distraction
17:15
Speaker 5: is one of the most difficult challenges right now. It's
17:20
Speaker 5: not just that we have a lot coming in our
17:21
Speaker 5: Twitter feeds, our x feeds. That's not quite it. It's
17:25
Speaker 5: that there's multi dimension So let's break them apart, let's
17:29
Speaker 5: talk about them. Let's see how they're unfolding in stages.
17:34
Speaker 5: The posts I'm about to put out on substack pretty
17:38
Speaker 5: soon after this interview is going to help tie those
17:42
Speaker 5: together so people can see that and then help see
17:46
Speaker 5: where this thing is headache you see, and what is
17:50
Speaker 5: really in front of us now is probably the worst
17:53
Speaker 5: disaster that's unfolding here that's been triggered by airpower, certainly
17:59
Speaker 5: in most of our lifetimes. And we'll see how far
18:02
Speaker 5: this this goes. But it's no longer just President Trump,
18:06
Speaker 5: as I'm saying, Oh yeah, he's just gonna wake up. Well,
18:09
Speaker 5: he can try it. He can announce today right now,
18:11
Speaker 5: this second. You know, Professor Pape, you're wrong. I announced
18:14
Speaker 5: today the war is over. Let's see if it stops
18:17
Speaker 5: the next hour, you see, because it's got all those
18:21
Speaker 5: other actors here, who are are you know? He had
18:24
Speaker 5: chances to stop this in June? He could have negotiated. Uh,
18:29
Speaker 5: he's now touched off the escalation trap. He's in it.
18:34
Speaker 5: It's not it's not something that he controls.
18:36
Speaker 2: And what does the next level of escalation look like?
18:39
Speaker 2: I already have a broadening of the war. Obviously, the
18:42
Speaker 2: the GCC countries have been hit pretty significantly. They seem
18:46
Speaker 2: quite upset Israel's getting hit. They're they're saying they may
18:50
Speaker 2: set up some positions in the Horn of Africa. We have,
18:53
Speaker 2: you know, reported involvement of the Russians and the Chinese.
18:56
Speaker 2: What does the next level of escalation.
18:57
Speaker 5: Look like the next level is going to be about
19:01
Speaker 5: the dispersal of the enriched uranium that you're hearing quietly,
19:06
Speaker 5: you know, these briefings on Capitol Hill, the senators coming
19:09
Speaker 5: out ash and face and so forth. We have They
19:13
Speaker 5: have to keep in mind that for twenty five years,
19:15
Speaker 5: not just Donald Trump, this whole crisis with militarized crisis
19:19
Speaker 5: with Iran has been about Iran's enriching uranium. Well, they
19:23
Speaker 5: have one thousand pounds of sixty percent enriched uranium that
19:29
Speaker 5: was in Fordeaux Natons, Esefon other places. And when Trump
19:33
Speaker 5: bombed that in June, he destroyed buildings and functioning of buildings.
19:38
Speaker 5: He didn't get that enriched uranium. And we have satellite
19:41
Speaker 5: photography of likely the dispersal of that material, and that's
19:46
Speaker 5: on my substack. So people can go and watch a video.
19:49
Speaker 5: They do have to subscribe, it's free, but you can
19:51
Speaker 5: see the actual satellite photography of this. And we also
19:55
Speaker 5: have more photography from satellites and this is civilian satellites,
20:00
Speaker 5: by the way, in February in Stefon. So this is
20:03
Speaker 5: now happening, you see, and it's coming out prisident Trump
20:06
Speaker 5: himself a couple of days ago in one of his discussions,
20:09
Speaker 5: mentions this dispersal happening. This is very worrisome that material
20:15
Speaker 5: can be yes down the road fashioned into bombs, but
20:18
Speaker 5: it can be used for radiological weapons. So imagine that's
20:21
Speaker 5: sprinkled on those cones of some of those precision drones
20:24
Speaker 5: going into doa how you know we already you know,
20:27
Speaker 5: when's the next time a billionaire is going to show
20:29
Speaker 5: up there? So you end up with So there's a
20:31
Speaker 5: lot of real capability here that Iran has not used yet.
20:37
Speaker 5: And this image of Iran as a beaten down, you know,
20:41
Speaker 5: tiny little, you know, pipsqueak of a country with no
20:45
Speaker 5: capability that we've been hearing for years. This has never
20:48
Speaker 5: been true. Okay, So what's happening is Iran is is
20:52
Speaker 5: a fairly strong country, ninety two million. It's, as you reported,
20:57
Speaker 5: exporting oil when the rest of the world can just
21:01
Speaker 5: think about this for a moment. So they have a
21:03
Speaker 5: lot of capability here yet to go. And this is
21:07
Speaker 5: where the real dangers down the road. We're only at
21:10
Speaker 5: the beginning of the dangerous part of the escalation trap.
21:16
Speaker 3: Professor I am very worried about the breaking of a
21:20
Speaker 3: nuclear taboo, not necessarily just in the use of a
21:24
Speaker 3: tactical nuclear weapon, but an atmospheric nuclear test. Where would
21:27
Speaker 3: that fit into your escalation line, am I.
21:30
Speaker 5: I'm going to be writing, Yeah, so I give lectures
21:33
Speaker 5: on this. So again this is something this is now
21:35
Speaker 5: going to come forward. I will put these as lectures online,
21:40
Speaker 5: So every two weeks for some part of my substec,
21:43
Speaker 5: I do these video briefings now and so we can
21:46
Speaker 5: talk about these serious issues. So what people have been
21:50
Speaker 5: saying is Iran will is so radical irrational that what
21:55
Speaker 5: they're going to do is they're going to fashion a
21:56
Speaker 5: bomb and the very first thing they're going to do
21:58
Speaker 5: is they're going to drop one on tel Avision and
22:00
Speaker 5: maybe a second one on New York here, and then
22:04
Speaker 5: what this is is an image of Iran. They're painting
22:07
Speaker 5: an image of an irrational state that spasmodically reacts without thinking.
22:13
Speaker 5: That's not what Iran has been doing for twenty five years.
22:17
Speaker 5: So I'm not trying to paint them as ten feet tall.
22:20
Speaker 5: But they've been pretty strategic. I would say give them
22:23
Speaker 5: at least a B plus if not an A. So
22:26
Speaker 5: they've been pretty strategic and how they've behaved, and what
22:29
Speaker 5: you would do with nuclear weapons is the very first
22:32
Speaker 5: thing is you don't just set off when you have one.
22:37
Speaker 5: You want to follow the North Korea pattern, which is
22:41
Speaker 5: you want many nuclear weapons. Notice North Korea has got
22:44
Speaker 5: sixty plus nuclear weapons, and we're suddenly saying that, well, okay,
22:48
Speaker 5: we're not going to tickle that tiger. Well that Iran
22:51
Speaker 5: saw that, so Iran is what that's why in their
22:55
Speaker 5: material that all that material, that thousand pounds and all
22:58
Speaker 5: of every thing I'm describing, that's enough for between ten and
23:01
Speaker 5: sixteen bombs. So what iron really wants, if they're going
23:06
Speaker 5: to go to the nuclear route, is not one bomb.
23:08
Speaker 5: They want five or six bombs, because the very first
23:11
Speaker 5: use of that bomb is probably going to be quote
23:14
Speaker 5: a test, and then what are we going to say.
23:17
Speaker 5: We're going to say, oh, that's not good enough. They
23:19
Speaker 5: only had one. They only had one, so then they're
23:22
Speaker 5: going to have to do a second test, probably on
23:25
Speaker 5: their own territory. Once they do two, they're not going
23:29
Speaker 5: to need to do three or four, and people are
23:32
Speaker 5: going to panic and then how how and then we're
23:35
Speaker 5: going to see the real consequences of what's occurring here.
23:38
Speaker 5: You see so the way to understand this is the
23:43
Speaker 5: politics of strategy, the politics of escalation. That's my forte.
23:49
Speaker 5: So I taught the best pilots in the Air Force.
23:51
Speaker 5: Those folks weren't coming to me and learn how to
23:53
Speaker 5: put a bomb on a target. They want to know
23:56
Speaker 5: when they're generals and they're four star generals, chief of staff,
24:00
Speaker 5: what's going to happen here after the moms hit the target?
24:04
Speaker 5: You see? And that's why quite a few folks. I've
24:07
Speaker 5: even received emails here from my former military students saying,
24:12
Speaker 5: my god, professor Pape, you were teaching this twenty years ago.
24:15
Speaker 5: Here you must be hitting your head about what's occurring,
24:19
Speaker 5: because it's unfolding just as you told us it was
24:22
Speaker 5: going to unfold in your frameworks. And they're appreciating now
24:26
Speaker 5: those frameworks are becoming more available so people can understand this.
24:31
Speaker 5: And that's why I think you saw in the military
24:33
Speaker 5: being much more reluctant to get on this board with
24:36
Speaker 5: regime change. You saw that, right, there's a gap here.
24:41
Speaker 5: And the military they're very professional. They're going to do
24:46
Speaker 5: what they are ordered to do. They will give advice,
24:49
Speaker 5: but if the president says that's all fine, and good,
24:52
Speaker 5: But I'm going to ignore your advice. They will They
24:55
Speaker 5: will do that because they are professionals, they are loyal
24:58
Speaker 5: to the constitution. Is they see it here. But that's
25:02
Speaker 5: the real nager, sir, so I hope I explained that
25:05
Speaker 5: this is where the scariness here could get worse. And
25:11
Speaker 5: we have big midterms coming up, So why wouldn't they
25:13
Speaker 5: time this around the midterms? I mean that would really
25:16
Speaker 5: just think about what that would do for Trump's They
25:19
Speaker 5: really the soft under belly that we know and our
25:23
Speaker 5: enemies know is our politics. That's why they've gone the
25:27
Speaker 5: long war strategy. And what you're seeing is they're having
25:30
Speaker 5: all different dimensions of the long war and more and
25:34
Speaker 5: more Trump is looking like Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam where
25:38
Speaker 5: he just lost control.
25:39
Speaker 4: Wow.
25:40
Speaker 2: And my last question for you is there's been a
25:43
Speaker 2: bunch of reporting about how Israeli interesting goals may diverge
25:47
Speaker 2: from US interesting goals, and I'm curious your thoughts on that.
25:50
Speaker 4: And also, you.
25:51
Speaker 2: Know, while while you see this as going catastrophically for
25:54
Speaker 2: the US, is it going catastrophically for Israel? Because it
25:58
Speaker 2: seems to me that you know, just having Iran's capabilities degraded,
26:03
Speaker 2: and the possibility of you know, sort of chaos on
26:06
Speaker 2: the ground in Iran serves Israeli interests fairly well. And
26:10
Speaker 2: certainly it's been a goal of Theirs for a long
26:11
Speaker 2: time to get us in the Gulf States, et cetera,
26:14
Speaker 2: and broiled directly in this war.
26:17
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I want to separate what Israel and Nanya,
26:20
Speaker 5: who may think their interests are, and I understand they
26:23
Speaker 5: have the right to define their own interests from what
26:25
Speaker 5: I think is their actual security interests. And what I
26:29
Speaker 5: think is happening here is that Israel's security is getting
26:32
Speaker 5: worse with the passage of time, not better. And I
26:36
Speaker 5: think they too have been mesmerized by the hyperaccuracy of
26:41
Speaker 5: precision weapons. They can bomb targets and so forth, and
26:46
Speaker 5: then they can actually destroy buildings with precision weapons. As
26:49
Speaker 5: you're seeing, they've learned in Gaza that you can actually
26:52
Speaker 5: mass coordinate those bombs and say you're not targeting civilians
26:57
Speaker 5: while you wreck the civilian infrastructre sure for anybody to
27:00
Speaker 5: live anywhere. So they they're they're learning this. But the
27:04
Speaker 5: bottom line is that this is those things I'm talking about, Like,
27:07
Speaker 5: let's just pick the nuclear the dispersal of nuclear material.
27:11
Speaker 5: Trump's bombing of Frudeau did not contain the nuclear problem
27:14
Speaker 5: and Iran. It triggered the dispersal of nuclear material. And
27:19
Speaker 5: as that material disperses, that's a danger, not just to America.
27:23
Speaker 5: That's not just a danger to say Basra, that's a
27:26
Speaker 5: danger to Tel Aviv as well. And what is now
27:30
Speaker 5: who exactly going to do here? You know, are they
27:33
Speaker 5: Are they seriously going to put ground troops in? Are
27:36
Speaker 5: they seriously going to think about nuclear escalation? I mean,
27:39
Speaker 5: this is the kind of things you got to scratch
27:41
Speaker 5: your head and say, what are they actually thinking? Because
27:44
Speaker 5: this dispersal of this material, None of those options are
27:48
Speaker 5: guaranteed to to protect. So this this really is not,
27:53
Speaker 5: i would say, in Israel's interest. But they've got their
27:55
Speaker 5: stated views and and they may disagree. And as they disagree,
27:59
Speaker 5: then the real divergence here is between their stated or
28:04
Speaker 5: thinking and the actual reality that they are facing. That's
28:08
Speaker 5: the real issue here.
28:10
Speaker 3: Well, last question for you, Storty. He said, this is
28:12
Speaker 3: close to the most disastrous campaign. What is the most
28:15
Speaker 3: disastrous campaign?
28:16
Speaker 5: Yeah, the most disastrous campaign was probably Bill Clinton's campaign
28:21
Speaker 5: in March nineteen ninety nine, when he had a three
28:24
Speaker 5: day bombing campaign. He thought it would be three days
28:28
Speaker 5: to hit fifty one regime targets in and around Belgrade,
28:32
Speaker 5: including Melosvic, the leader's home. Now, the idea was to
28:37
Speaker 5: wreck the crony regime of Melosovic. We had this model
28:42
Speaker 5: of cronyism in Serbia. And what happened was that triggered
28:49
Speaker 5: a lashing back where Melosovic sent thirty thousand troops in
28:54
Speaker 5: a horizontal escalation way to cleanse a million, nine hundred
29:00
Speaker 5: and eighty thousand coase of our civilians from Kosovo. That's
29:04
Speaker 5: fifty percent of the of the population. Now what do
29:08
Speaker 5: we have here comparing that so far? We have fifty
29:11
Speaker 5: thousand Americans who've run away, So that's not a million
29:14
Speaker 5: whove run out of the region, but still that's fifty thousand.
29:17
Speaker 5: And as time goes on, the economic consequences here are
29:23
Speaker 5: going to meet reach not just millions, but probably hundreds
29:28
Speaker 5: of millions of people. That's only at the beginning stages now,
29:33
Speaker 5: so that's why I say we're entering that. But if
29:36
Speaker 5: you know, this goes on for three or four weeks,
29:38
Speaker 5: as it well could, and and we're going to discover
29:41
Speaker 5: that putting out those oil reserves are one time, you
29:45
Speaker 5: use it once and it's gone, And then that's all
29:47
Speaker 5: going to start to get priced into everything. As those
29:50
Speaker 5: price surges continue to go up in by April, you're
29:55
Speaker 5: going to start to see the real pain come in
29:58
Speaker 5: and it's and it's going to start to make Kosovo
30:01
Speaker 5: look like a small hill. So this is where we're
30:04
Speaker 5: really heading. And notice we haven't even talked about the
30:07
Speaker 5: most scary stuff that we were just talking about before.
30:09
Speaker 5: So so as you as this thing unfolds, we need
30:13
Speaker 5: to understand that we're really really have have touched off
30:17
Speaker 5: the escalation trap in a way. And and the biggest
30:20
Speaker 5: problem is that President Trump just is losing control and
30:24
Speaker 5: he's going to try to get the control back. But
30:27
Speaker 5: so too did Lyndon Johnson said, we.
30:30
Speaker 1: Can call it.
30:30
Speaker 5: It's the LBJ trap. It's the same. This is the
30:32
Speaker 5: same LBJ didn't think he was going to lose I
30:35
Speaker 5: guarantee you didn't wake up and one day and say, oh, yeah,
30:37
Speaker 5: how can I actually become probably the worst president uh
30:42
Speaker 5: in history and then beg for other presidents to come
30:45
Speaker 5: in like Jimmy Carter, so for it to bail them out.
30:47
Speaker 5: I mean, this is really they don't wake up that way.
30:49
Speaker 5: I guarantee you what they're waking up is they're there,
30:52
Speaker 5: I think, mesmerized by this illusion of control of escalation.
30:58
Speaker 5: And you even hear and Trump saying when will Iron
31:02
Speaker 5: reach the breaking point? That was exactly the rhetoric of
31:06
Speaker 5: lb J. How can we break the back of the
31:10
Speaker 5: North Vietnamese? And that search for the breaking point? There's
31:15
Speaker 5: actually articles with those titles the search for the breaking point,
31:20
Speaker 5: you see, and that language. I mean, I don't think
31:23
Speaker 5: Trump probably went back to the speeches of LBJ. This
31:27
Speaker 5: is the reality of the frameworks. The frameworks force this,
31:33
Speaker 5: you see, and so that's why those frameworks matter.
31:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, he's out right now saying that oil high
31:38
Speaker 2: oil price is actually good for the US. So I
31:40
Speaker 2: think your point about how people are not gonna be
31:42
Speaker 2: listening to him. They have their own interests when they
31:44
Speaker 2: see those prices.
31:45
Speaker 5: Yeah, we're just we're just eating. But you know we eat.
31:49
Speaker 5: You know, we're eating three meals a day and most
31:52
Speaker 5: of us probably should just be having one. And boy,
31:54
Speaker 5: that's gonna be No, this isn't gonna work.
31:57
Speaker 3: Great tactic, sir, Thank you so much for joining US
32:00
Speaker 3: escalation trap substack Lake is down in the description. Also, I
32:03
Speaker 3: just ordered your book on Amazon while you were talking.
32:05
Speaker 3: Oh my God, is on my way to my house,
32:08
Speaker 3: and I'll do a review here on the show.
32:10
Speaker 5: Well, and I really appreciate what you're doing for the
32:12
Speaker 5: country here to kind of bring these frameworks out so
32:15
Speaker 5: they can see that there's some some way to understand
32:19
Speaker 5: what's happening to us.
32:21
Speaker 1: It's our honor.
32:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's our privilege, and we hope you'll join us again.
32:24
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, thank you very much, my pleasure.
32:29
Speaker 2: So guys, we're getting some new video out of Israel
32:32
Speaker 2: showing a significant hesbola attack on northern Israel. Can put
32:37
Speaker 2: these images up on the screen. These are fairly extraordinary.
32:40
Speaker 2: Of course, it's pretty rare to get any sort of
32:43
Speaker 2: video out of Israel because they have severe censorship. And
32:47
Speaker 2: you can see the significance of this attack. I mean,
32:50
Speaker 2: some of these are being intercepted and some of them
32:52
Speaker 2: are clearly striking targets in the area. You know this
32:55
Speaker 2: after the the idea that I've been projected, I think
32:58
Speaker 2: that the Israelis maybe even believe that Heswel had been
33:01
Speaker 2: severely degraded after their top leadership had been taken down
33:05
Speaker 2: after the infamous Deeper attack, and yet clearly here they
33:08
Speaker 2: are able to fully join this war in a way
33:11
Speaker 2: that is fairly sophisticated. And at the same time, it
33:15
Speaker 2: appears that the Iron Dome is failing to intercept a
33:19
Speaker 2: sizeable number of the missiles at this point that are
33:22
Speaker 2: being fired towards Israel. We can put this next one
33:25
Speaker 2: up on the screen. This is pretty extraordinary. This reporter
33:28
Speaker 2: says that the Iron Dome could not stop about half
33:33
Speaker 2: of the one hundred rockets that Hesbel launched at Israel
33:37
Speaker 2: just a few hours ago. We can also put three
33:40
Speaker 2: up on the screen. How Retz has some reporting about
33:43
Speaker 2: the quote unquote whole in Israel's early warning system and
33:47
Speaker 2: its missile defense batteries are at risk as well, and
33:51
Speaker 2: so basically what this article lays out in detail is
33:56
Speaker 2: that when you have these missile defense systems, they also
34:00
Speaker 2: have to be protected, and so that has created tremendous
34:03
Speaker 2: vulnerability and obviously Sagur it has been a strategy of
34:06
Speaker 2: Iran to target these defense systems and they've been pretty effective,
34:12
Speaker 2: at least at our batteries in the region in effectuating
34:16
Speaker 2: that Tigan that's why we had to pull the fad
34:17
Speaker 2: battery system from South Korea and bring it over because
34:21
Speaker 2: some of the damage that had been incurred. And so
34:23
Speaker 2: their strategy was to take out those capabilities or degrade
34:28
Speaker 2: those capabilities early, and then that would enable them to
34:31
Speaker 2: be able to strike stronger blows using fewer rockets, missiles
34:36
Speaker 2: and drones, et cetera. And based on what we can
34:39
Speaker 2: see in terms of the degrading capability of the rocket
34:43
Speaker 2: air reception here from the Iron Dome, that strategy seems
34:45
Speaker 2: to be working fairly successful.
34:47
Speaker 3: Let's put E four just to give you an example.
34:49
Speaker 3: This is from the Jerusalem Post. So again everything we're
34:51
Speaker 3: showing you is from Israeli media. After eleven days of fighting,
34:55
Speaker 3: Israel has received nine thousand missile damage claims, six thousand
34:59
Speaker 3: and five hundred buildings, one forty four contents and equipment,
35:03
Speaker 3: four hundred and eighty five vehicles. So that is just
35:06
Speaker 3: the private claims now so far that does not factor
35:10
Speaker 3: in the has Bulah attack that just happened yesterday. Keep
35:14
Speaker 3: in mind also that this now means an opening of
35:17
Speaker 3: the front with Lebanon.
35:19
Speaker 1: Let's put E five up there.
35:21
Speaker 3: On the screen. I can talk a little bit over it.
35:23
Speaker 3: These are some of the strikes that were happening all
35:26
Speaker 3: across Lebanon in immediate retaliation. Immediate reports out of Israel,
35:31
Speaker 3: at least some said that only about fifty percent or
35:34
Speaker 3: so of those rockets were even intercepted by the Iron Dome.
35:37
Speaker 3: Combined that with what Crystal just talked about in terms
35:40
Speaker 3: of the holes in the targeting system, so they are
35:42
Speaker 3: now being struck in a coordinated attack by Hesbolah and
35:46
Speaker 3: by Iran. Also, the fact is is that it clearly
35:49
Speaker 3: has Bullah has much more strength than they let on.
35:52
Speaker 3: Remember the Pager attack and the war and often bombing
35:55
Speaker 3: that they had launched. Now what this shows is not
35:58
Speaker 3: only their strength but the retaliation that Israel is now
36:02
Speaker 3: going for. And already they're basically doing the Israeli playbook
36:06
Speaker 3: floating ethnic cleansing.
36:07
Speaker 1: It's right there on the It's on the books.
36:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's put six up on the screen.
36:11
Speaker 2: This is i'm At Siegal, who is a regime propagandist
36:15
Speaker 2: in Israel, closely tied to the government, and what he
36:18
Speaker 2: is saying is quote, what needs to be done in
36:21
Speaker 2: Lebanon is very simple. Advance to Latani River and announce
36:25
Speaker 2: we will not leave until Hesbela is disarmed. But this time,
36:28
Speaker 2: unlike the old security zone, not a single resident returns
36:33
Speaker 2: aka ethnic cleansing, and at the same time a severe
36:37
Speaker 2: and devastating strike on Dahia. So this is the you
36:41
Speaker 2: know what is being floated and very much you know,
36:44
Speaker 2: part of the greater Israel project. This would be you know,
36:47
Speaker 2: accomplishing some of their additional goals. I think Sagra made
36:51
Speaker 2: the point earlier. Part of why we're getting that video
36:53
Speaker 2: out of Israel's being allowed out of the rocket attacks
36:56
Speaker 2: from Hesbola is to try to justify exactly this type
37:00
Speaker 2: of military incursion and takeover and ultimately, you know what's
37:04
Speaker 2: being floated here is in ethnic cleansing, removing all of
37:08
Speaker 2: the existing residents and not allowing them to return, and
37:12
Speaker 2: the facto taking over more territory in the region. That
37:16
Speaker 2: is what they're trying to use this war as cover
37:19
Speaker 2: to do. So you know, they're they're taking damage, they're
37:22
Speaker 2: also using the opportunity and in an attempt to further
37:26
Speaker 2: some of their greater regional goals.
37:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, and you actually literally as we were taping,
37:32
Speaker 3: I can read the latest from Amid Segal and the IDF.
37:37
Speaker 3: The IDF spokesperson has now directed all residents of southern
37:41
Speaker 3: Lebanon to move beyond a border checkpoint, which is a
37:45
Speaker 3: river inside southern Lebanon. So, I mean, I don't know
37:48
Speaker 3: what the population is, probably a lot, right, and basically
37:51
Speaker 3: a evacuation order aka Gaza level one. And as he
37:55
Speaker 3: floated there, we're going to tell them to leave and
37:57
Speaker 3: that you're never going to come back until we dismantle
37:59
Speaker 3: all of Hesbolah and oh and actually that's basically an
38:02
Speaker 3: impossible task. And so that will mean that we're just
38:04
Speaker 3: get to take over and annex to facto annex in
38:07
Speaker 3: another part of another country. And this is all happening
38:11
Speaker 3: under our auspices. It also shows you the same may
38:13
Speaker 3: Professor Pape talked about about their actual security interest.
38:16
Speaker 1: Now they're fighting a war with Iran. Now they're fighting
38:18
Speaker 1: a war with Hezbollah.
38:19
Speaker 3: They're fighting a war or they're technically anx like parts
38:22
Speaker 3: of Syria. They're literally on a seven front war. What
38:25
Speaker 3: is the eighth front? It's the United States, the propaganda
38:27
Speaker 3: war against people like us. You are watching them expand
38:32
Speaker 3: in territory at this very moment. But also they can't
38:36
Speaker 3: do any of this without the explicit backing of the
38:38
Speaker 3: United States, and you already see holes in their military interceptors.
38:42
Speaker 3: And the longer this goes on leads you to what
38:44
Speaker 3: Professor Pape talked about, the escalation trap and what they
38:47
Speaker 3: may not have any interceptors, but what do they have?
38:49
Speaker 1: Nuclear weapons?
38:50
Speaker 3: They have ground forces which could invade Lebanon, They can
38:55
Speaker 3: pressure the United States to continue going and you know,
38:58
Speaker 3: all in with our entire mil military. That's the really
39:01
Speaker 3: scary part about watching this happen.
39:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that's absolutely the case. And I mean with
39:05
Speaker 2: regard to Israel, right the whole raison deetra is to
39:08
Speaker 2: be a safe haven for Jews. How safe is this
39:11
Speaker 2: haven right now? I mean, you know, shut Child has
39:14
Speaker 2: been talking about how many how many people in Israel
39:19
Speaker 2: have been leaving the country have been you know that
39:22
Speaker 2: there are a level of out migration is really significant because, yeah,
39:26
Speaker 2: you want to be in a bomb shelter every you know,
39:28
Speaker 2: every other month you're having to huddle with your family
39:30
Speaker 2: in a bomb shelter and have sirens go off and
39:32
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv and worry about your apartment building being struck
39:36
Speaker 2: or your car being destroyed or what you know, or
39:38
Speaker 2: God forbid you, you know, losing your your life, for
39:41
Speaker 2: your children being threatened, et cetera. So, of course, a
39:44
Speaker 2: lot of a lot of normal people who are not
39:46
Speaker 2: down with the like you know, hardcore religious end times
39:50
Speaker 2: and the Greater Israel project and the whole bit, they're
39:53
Speaker 2: gonna say, okay, we're we're out of here there, you know,
39:55
Speaker 2: We're going to go to greener pastures. So I think
39:57
Speaker 2: that is absolutely the case. But there's I also want
40:00
Speaker 2: to be really clear, the population of Israel.
40:03
Speaker 4: Is fully on board with this war.
40:04
Speaker 2: I mean, I said, the polling year is you know,
40:07
Speaker 2: overwhelming opposition in Israel. It's like eighty seven percent that
40:11
Speaker 2: are oh yeah, absolutely in favor of this war.
40:14
Speaker 4: With the run.
40:15
Speaker 2: Netanyahu is not an outlier, his government is not an outlier.
40:18
Speaker 2: They are representative of the wishes of the people of Israel. So,
40:23
Speaker 2: you know, so this is the direction they're going to
40:25
Speaker 2: continue to push in. And I think it, you know,
40:27
Speaker 2: once again demonstrates the divergence between the global goods or
40:32
Speaker 2: even the US good and what the Israelis want. Yet
40:35
Speaker 2: they seem to be very effective at getting their way.
40:36
Speaker 5: Yep.
40:37
Speaker 3: So don't let this go unnoticed. We've got a full
40:39
Speaker 3: blown you know, ethnic possible ethnic cleansing. Watch right here
40:43
Speaker 3: happening again now in Lebanon. It's going to be crazy.
40:46
Speaker 3: It's going to tie them down, it's going to escalate
40:48
Speaker 3: stuff for us. They're going to lean even more heavily
40:50
Speaker 3: on us to give them more types of weapons or
40:52
Speaker 3: who knows, and unleash what else potentially on Iran is
40:55
Speaker 3: some sort of retaliation really pay close.
40:58
Speaker 4: To you, Yeah, and has Willa surprise fierce?
41:01
Speaker 5: Yeah.
41:01
Speaker 2: I think for for everybody, I did not know that
41:04
Speaker 2: they continued to maintain this level of capacity and so
41:07
Speaker 2: yet another you know, factor that was not anticipated, because
41:11
Speaker 2: when you have Iran and Hezbola striking inside Israel at
41:14
Speaker 2: the same time, that is going to overwhelm their.
41:17
Speaker 3: Because the narrative was we already dealt with Hesbola with
41:20
Speaker 3: the Pagrier attack. Were finished, We're over, it's done, and
41:22
Speaker 3: so we're going to win out. We're just fighting with her.
41:24
Speaker 1: Oh oops. All of a sudden, one hundred rockets come over.
41:26
Speaker 3: And you're like, uh, okay, this is not good, you know,
41:29
Speaker 3: and turns out not nearly as depleted as we thought.
41:33
Speaker 3: I also think Hesbola is not stupid. They knew they
41:35
Speaker 3: were under immense pressure from the Lebanese government to not
41:38
Speaker 3: do anything like this. But for them, they're like, look,
41:40
Speaker 3: if Iran gets wiped out, then we're going to get
41:42
Speaker 3: wiped out one way or the other. We're going to
41:44
Speaker 3: lose our benefactor and or they're going to come and
41:46
Speaker 3: they're going to get us next. So it's existential. We've
41:49
Speaker 3: got to fight to the death. So we have multiple
41:51
Speaker 3: people now fighting to the death on this front. And
41:53
Speaker 3: you know, don't underestimate them. Look at what they did
41:55
Speaker 3: in Syria, real battle tested force. A lot of them
41:57
Speaker 3: are willing to die. So yeah, I'm just an another
42:00
Speaker 3: front that's opened here in the war. Okay, let's get
42:03
Speaker 3: to California and the drone threat turning down to a
42:07
Speaker 3: very strange incident, which we have to keep you all updated.
42:10
Speaker 3: So there's this big piece of news from ABC that
42:13
Speaker 3: broke yesterday. Let's put it up here on the screen.
42:16
Speaker 1: What do we have? We have?
42:18
Speaker 3: The FBI is warned that Iran aspired to attack California
42:24
Speaker 3: with drones in retaliation for the war. The warning came
42:28
Speaker 3: in a bulletin that was sent to police departments in
42:31
Speaker 3: recent days that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by
42:34
Speaker 3: launching drones at the West Coast. We recently acquired information
42:38
Speaker 3: as of early February twenty twenty six, Iran allegedly aspired
42:41
Speaker 3: to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from
42:45
Speaker 3: an unidentified vessel off the coast of the US homeland,
42:49
Speaker 3: specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that
42:53
Speaker 3: the US conducted strikes against Iran. We have no additional
42:56
Speaker 3: information on the timing, method, target or perpetrators of the
43:00
Speaker 3: alleged attack. Obviously a lot of hackles were raised at
43:03
Speaker 3: that one. What exactly is going on here? Is it
43:08
Speaker 3: a way to try and inspire fear in the American
43:13
Speaker 3: public in order to try and support some of what's
43:15
Speaker 3: going on right now with the war and local police
43:19
Speaker 3: and others, including those briefed on the matter. Let's put
43:22
Speaker 3: F three please up on the screen. LAPD sources this
43:26
Speaker 3: from Fox News, by the way, just to show you
43:27
Speaker 3: how little credence that even these people are giving it.
43:30
Speaker 3: They say I've talked to today say there is not
43:32
Speaker 3: a no incredible drone threat and this may fall under
43:34
Speaker 3: the general death to America umbrella, So not really something
43:39
Speaker 3: that was worth I think a full blown bulletin to
43:42
Speaker 3: the LAPD.
43:44
Speaker 1: Let's think about logistics here at Crystlin.
43:46
Speaker 3: So the current range I believe of the drone would
43:50
Speaker 3: make it so that what is it like three to
43:52
Speaker 3: four times anything that is even in their theoretical maximal range.
43:57
Speaker 3: For their longest range drone that they may have, they
44:00
Speaker 3: would have to put it on a unmanned aircraft carrier,
44:03
Speaker 3: which would have to sail thousands of nautical miles to
44:08
Speaker 3: off the coast of California, so via, you know, across
44:13
Speaker 3: various different sea channels and other things which are highly monitored,
44:16
Speaker 3: and then it would have to take off from said
44:18
Speaker 3: carecraft carrier, unmanned carrier allegedly, and then come and hit
44:23
Speaker 3: a site in California.
44:25
Speaker 1: Just personally a little skeptical of that, Yeah.
44:27
Speaker 4: I would say so, I would say.
44:28
Speaker 5: So.
44:29
Speaker 2: There was another uncorroborated report, they say, from twenty twenty
44:33
Speaker 2: five that suggested unidentified Mexican cartel leaders had authorized attacks
44:39
Speaker 2: using drones carrying explosives against US law enforcement.
44:43
Speaker 4: They said this type of attack against US.
44:45
Speaker 2: Personal or interest inside the US would be unprecedented, but
44:48
Speaker 2: exemplifies a plausible scenario, although cartels typically avoid actions that
44:52
Speaker 2: would result in unwanted attention or responses from US authorities. Again,
44:55
Speaker 2: think of how nonsensical this is. You think the Mexican
44:58
Speaker 2: cartels want to start a war or like, you think
45:01
Speaker 2: that's going to go well with them, You think that's
45:03
Speaker 2: an intelligent scenario. So they're clearly trying to jin up
45:06
Speaker 2: all of these, you know, frightful scenarios of what could unfold,
45:10
Speaker 2: and they've got the sequencing all wrong here, Soccer. You
45:12
Speaker 2: got to manufacture the consent before the war starts. You
45:16
Speaker 2: gotta do the false flag before you get into this thing.
45:18
Speaker 2: You got to generate all the fear and the anxiety
45:21
Speaker 2: and the oh my god, they're like terrible people who
45:23
Speaker 2: are coming to attack California. You gotta do that before
45:26
Speaker 2: you launch the war, guys, because now it just reads
45:29
Speaker 2: as like, Okay, well, if there's all this risk, why
45:32
Speaker 2: are you doing this, Why are you creating more risk?
45:34
Speaker 2: How is this creating any sort of like sense of
45:37
Speaker 2: safety for the American people. No, Instead, what you're doing
45:40
Speaker 2: with these, you know, fake bulletins is establishing that what
45:44
Speaker 2: you have done in the Middle East is just creating.
45:46
Speaker 4: Actually more risk and more danger.
45:49
Speaker 2: For Americans here and broad I mean, I don't put
45:52
Speaker 2: any stock there's all this like Iranian sleepercell conversation now too.
45:55
Speaker 2: I don't put any stock in that as well either.
45:58
Speaker 2: But it is true that we're making a lot of
46:00
Speaker 2: people around the world absolutely hate our guts. We just
46:03
Speaker 2: murdered one hundred and sixty eight school children. How do
46:06
Speaker 2: you think that you know their parents feel about us now?
46:08
Speaker 2: How do you think that they're siblings so we're going
46:10
Speaker 2: to grow up? How do you think they're going to
46:11
Speaker 2: feel about us now? How do you think all of
46:13
Speaker 2: the orphans in Gaza or the children who are amputees
46:17
Speaker 2: now largest amputee population in the world in Gaza, how
46:20
Speaker 2: do you think that they feel about us? So, yes,
46:23
Speaker 2: we are creating more danger for our own population and
46:27
Speaker 2: our own service members and our own assets in the region.
46:30
Speaker 2: Do I believe this particular story about drone striking La
46:35
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. And one other thing to keep in mind
46:38
Speaker 2: here is, you know, I mean, what we've seen from
46:40
Speaker 2: Iran in terms of their attacks on any sort of
46:44
Speaker 2: US personnel or basis in the region, it has always
46:47
Speaker 2: been we or Israel attack them first. We have not
46:51
Speaker 2: seen them, you know, trying to come over here and
46:54
Speaker 2: drone strike, as we have not seen them out of
46:56
Speaker 2: the blue attacking our assets in the region either. It
46:58
Speaker 2: has always been in retaliation for something that we started.
47:02
Speaker 2: So it does not fit their pattern of behavior whatsoever.
47:05
Speaker 2: And of course we already have law enforcement officials who
47:07
Speaker 2: were like, this.
47:07
Speaker 3: Is yeah, the drone thing. I'm not worried about the
47:10
Speaker 3: sleeper cell thing. I'll put it to you this way.
47:12
Speaker 3: Do I think that there are intentionally designed terror sleeper cells?
47:16
Speaker 3: We didn't see any of that usually during the Global
47:18
Speaker 3: War on Terror, although there were a few, like al
47:20
Speaker 3: Qaeda plots, you couldn't really call it sleeper cell. It
47:23
Speaker 3: would be a not KaiA sell right, Like people who
47:25
Speaker 3: were inspired there would be like a small set of teams.
47:27
Speaker 3: You have the London attacks that happened in five you
47:30
Speaker 3: had some of the Times Square plot, some of these
47:31
Speaker 3: other things that happened here in the United States.
47:34
Speaker 1: That's very unlikely.
47:35
Speaker 3: But what did we see A lot of San Bernardino,
47:37
Speaker 3: A lot of these what are they like, you know,
47:39
Speaker 3: these is so called.
47:41
Speaker 1: Inspired I'm actually pretty worried about.
47:44
Speaker 4: Yeah, that can definitely got that.
47:45
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, we know, we have tens of millions
47:46
Speaker 3: of people here illegally. We have no idea who most
47:49
Speaker 3: of these people are. We don't have no registry or
47:52
Speaker 3: any of that. Not to mention a massive Muslim population.
47:55
Speaker 3: It's like, yeah, that's scary, and they couldn't even just
47:58
Speaker 3: be them. It could also be I know, far left anarchists,
48:01
Speaker 3: right people.
48:02
Speaker 2: You don't have an FBI that's very interested in creating
48:04
Speaker 2: full like ginning up terror, to radicalizing people themselves and
48:09
Speaker 2: then setting them off and you know, so that they
48:11
Speaker 2: can disrupt Oh my god, we disrupted the terror attype.
48:14
Speaker 2: But no, I mean, listen, undocumented immigrants, that's one thing.
48:18
Speaker 2: But you also have plenty of Americans who are going
48:20
Speaker 2: to be disgusted and radicalized by what's going on, who
48:23
Speaker 2: you know, are looking at the atrocities abroad. And so
48:26
Speaker 2: it's a very volatile mix. Obviously, we're a population that
48:29
Speaker 2: is tock full of guns and weapons and very violent
48:32
Speaker 2: society to begin with. We were just talking about the
48:35
Speaker 2: fact that a bunch of these white South Africans that
48:37
Speaker 2: came over here going back home because they find our
48:39
Speaker 2: society to be too violent, dangerous and chaotic. So you know,
48:43
Speaker 2: that is the landscape. And then you add on top
48:46
Speaker 2: of that this disgusting illegal war of choice where innocent
48:50
Speaker 2: civilians are being slaughtered and we can see, you know,
48:52
Speaker 2: not only the school girls. We see what happened in
48:54
Speaker 2: Tehran when the Israelis reportedly bombed this oil depot and
48:58
Speaker 2: you had, you know, assive ecological disaster, acid rain raining
49:03
Speaker 2: down from the sky, health effects that we can only
49:07
Speaker 2: you know, scarcely imagine what the reverberations of that have been.
49:11
Speaker 2: Many civilians have been killed, and yeah, it's it creates
49:15
Speaker 2: more risk for us, is the bottom line. But this
49:18
Speaker 2: particular thing, total incomplete bulship.
49:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this one.
49:21
Speaker 4: Don't worry about that one.
49:22
Speaker 3: As I said, I'm really not worried about some like
49:24
Speaker 3: state sponsored attack. I think that some sort of blowback
49:27
Speaker 3: style attack that could happen here.
49:29
Speaker 1: By the way, I didn't I mention.
49:30
Speaker 3: All these illegal what about all these Iranians who are
49:32
Speaker 3: currently living here. We got like, you know, how many
49:34
Speaker 3: maxive Iranian populations polling which you've seen, Crystal. You if
49:39
Speaker 3: you watch the media, you would think ninety percent of
49:42
Speaker 3: American Iranians are for the war. Not true, Raar. Recent
49:47
Speaker 3: poll just came out they're fifty to fifty on it. So,
49:49
Speaker 3: like you just said, maybe there's some by guy who's
49:51
Speaker 3: got some family over there, they get killed. Industry, you
49:53
Speaker 3: could see it happening. Are we excusing it? No, we're
49:56
Speaker 3: just living in reality. Like, yeah, I hope that there's
49:58
Speaker 3: no violence, but having lived through the entire global War
50:01
Speaker 3: on Terror and seeing some of these attacks all happen
50:04
Speaker 3: in real time, you really, you know, you really have
50:07
Speaker 3: to be careful, which is why it's a better idea
50:09
Speaker 3: just not getting involved in the war in the first place. Okay,
50:11
Speaker 3: thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.
50:14
Speaker 3: We'll have a great Friday show for everybody tomorrow. We'll
50:16
Speaker 3: see you all that