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The Favorites - NFL Week 13 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bet three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week thirteen episode. We're going to break down
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the entire slate of NFL games, the Thursday games, the
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Friday game, the Sunday games, on and on. This is
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: our Thanksgiving week mega episode. We will not have a
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Thursday episode, so every segment, big balls, boosted parlays from
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: BET three sixty five, the money line, underdog parlay, sharp calls,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: any big bets will all be discussed today extra time
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: to linger over the podcast in advance of the Thursday games.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We will also discuss our exact decision our Simon says.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: We will narrow down and probably get to our five
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: options to put into the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football pick'em contest. We went two and three
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: last week, losing our final pick of the Rams plus
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Saquon Barkley may still be running
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: against the Rams defense. The Eagles defense may still be
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: pressuring Matthew Stafford. It's time to stuff our faces with bets.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: We love for the Glorious thanks Giving Week live from
• 1:30
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  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my campadre, my BFF Professional
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  Speaker 2: It doesn't it feel like this is our holiday weekend
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  Speaker 1: before everything begins and we get to just relax and
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: watch the Thursday games. In a moment, we'll recap the
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
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  Speaker 1: zero nailed the Monday Night football tiebreaker. He's taken home
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  Speaker 1: Mitchell has also selected his Producer's Cup award to the
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  Speaker 1: entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
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  Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lords?
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  Speaker 3: Loser?
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  Speaker 4: He's a Louis About He's still kids on try.
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  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Bruce Lee's Master, who
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  Speaker 1: Bruce Lee as Master. Email our producer at podcast at
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  Speaker 1: Action network dot com to claim your price. One final
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  Speaker 1: order of business super important. The New Favorites podcast Watch
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  Speaker 1: Party is happening. It's time to RSVP Thursday, December twelfth.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: It's coming up fast. It's at the Wicked Wolf in
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  Speaker 1: Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing a hometown event for my bff,
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  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. We're gonna have drinks, We're gonna have a
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: live Q and A with me and Simon and Matt Mitchell.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: It's gonna happen from six to six pm to eight pm.
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• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. All right, we
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: got this abbreviated schedule. We do want to hear how
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: the wise guys have reacted to our Sunday show. I
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: know Simon's on a forty eight hour coffee and two
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: binge of just betting his face off, trying to figure
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: out what's happening in the markets in a reduced window.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: You've been hearing a lot from your neighborhood. Let's get
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: too sharp calls.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what to do man?
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just run through real quick for Thursday games. Right,
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Professionals that I've talked to, they love the Bears, no shocker,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: they've loved the Bears these last couple of weeks, and
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: it's been hitting for him, right, and they've been betting
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: the good number, and I think they're going back to that. Well,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: you know that's a game we're gonna break down. But
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: nothing's changed for me. Still like Detroit would be great
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: if it goes under ten. I mean there's still some
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: ten and a halfs out there, a couple of tens
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: are popping up now, it'd be great if it gets
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: sound of nine and a half. So nothing changed for
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: me there, But yeah, the professionals on the other side,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: the boys love my side for the Giants game, you know,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about that one as well. I just I
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: love this spot for this Giants team against this Cowboys
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: team coming off that type of win. And we've just
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: known historical data backs that the public always loves the
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Cowboys on Thanksgiving and they just do not cover. It's
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: just the way it is. It's just either getting a
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: free couple of points or you're just getting a ton
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: of value on the money line fading them. So that's
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: when I came with to dive into in the last
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: one again, we love I wish we could put in
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: the contest green Bay minus three and a half at home.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: That's when we're obvious just gonna break down. But the
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: professionals love that. There was a little back and forth.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: I know a couple guys that like Miami. I think
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: it stems to what we talked about the two and
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: the Jordan love questions, right, Like one guy has been
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: playing great these last couple of weeks. The other one
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: is not makes total sense. Get their argument, but that's
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: a game we'll dive into and I'll give them my
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: reason why. We just love this Green Bay spot and
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: obviously there's other reasons for it. But Vegas, I mean,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: that's a professional game. A lot of the pros I
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: talked to you love that game. Obviously would have been
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: nice if you get the thirteen thirteen and a half,
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: but you know, that's a game. Another game I think
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: we might talk about. I know we can't pun the contest,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: but you know it's my homes is a double digit favorite, right.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: I think it's that simple, and I kind of was
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: overthinking it. It's like, I don't know if I wanna
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: betting on this Raiders backup, but it's all about playing
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: the number, right chet. So yeah, the professionals, everyone I've
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: talked to, they like, they like that side. So nothing
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: shocked in there. So let's get to the Sunday games,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: a game I love every pro I've talked who loves
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: this side Chargers. I know what happened last night. People,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: I know it's gonna leave a bad taste in their mouth,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: but every pro I talked to is on the Chargers
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta, so little foreshadowing that might be. Simon says,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: I love that number, especially at one and a half,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: So that's just a game. A lot of guys have
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: talked about Jags Jets games. We'll talk about as well,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: ugly games. The pros like it. We've seen the Jags
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: number come down. I've seen early Seattle money came in
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: and that number one up two and a half. I
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: think that honestly makes sense with everything going on in
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: the Jets camp. So nothing shocking there in the last
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: two Buffalo I know it's a shocker. A lot of
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: people six and a half seven professionals love that. It's
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: one of the best running teams against a team that
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: can't stop the run right now in the forty nine
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Ers and a team me and Chad love, I have
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: no doubt will be one of our five Carolina Panthers
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: professionals love that side. You know this touch six and
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: a half in a couple of books went right back
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: down a six couple books, five and a half makes sense.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: We love this Panthers team. We like this matchup. The
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Bucks are a really good team. Are they good enough
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: to blow out a divisional opponent on the road and
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: back to back weeks, I don't think so. So Yeah,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to break down these games. Show.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: God, you mentioned so many of the games that I
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: want to talk about today. On that first one up
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Chicago at Detroit. That's a good job.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: I got us to ten.
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: That's ten. That's nine in a row.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: How many you guys have won nine in a row
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: in here in the NFL. Yeah, it's saying something that's rare.
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: All right, We're in rare air right now.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: All right, so we're doing something special, which we knew
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: we would.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit minus ten. As you just said, dude, it hit ten.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know when you saw it. I saw it
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: this morning. This was a ten and a half. I
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: think even when I checked lines at six thirty or
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: seven this morning, it was still at ten and a half.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Now down to ten, and I love that for us,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Like the Bears had two games in which Caleb Williams
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: played well and they still lost in a coaching mismatch
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: with a lot of coaching mistakes. Right, Eberflus on the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: road is historically bad. I know this feels like a huge, huge,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: huge number, but all Jared goff In the line. Dou
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Is cover go off thirty three and eleven against the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: spread the past three seasons indoors. The last loss was
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: to the Texans in which they came back from a
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: million points and they still won by three. And they
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: lost to the Bucks in Week two. This is a
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: very physical football team that is consistent, and that's a
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: theme that I want to come back to later in
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the show with another team. I'm excited to get your
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: take on that game that I want to talk about.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Let me define some some physical stats about the Lions.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Second overall in success rate offensively, second overall in success
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: rate for the run rush EPA, second, EPA overall. Third,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: They're just great. I don't want to get in front
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: of this train.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a team that didn't have to play that
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: hard in the fourth quarter, right, they kind of took
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: their foot off the guests. On the flip side, this
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Bears team just went overtime. Now they're on a short week.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: It's like we're now we're talking about that. How big
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: of a deal that is for a noon kickoff, which
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: is pretty insane you really think about it, you know,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: looking at this matchup, Chad, I think we both view
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: the Bears a team that have turned a corner here, right,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Kaleb Williams, You know, I saw some crazy steat. He's
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: one of the only quarterbacks I believe this season that
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: three for three yards two touchdowns against that have Vikings
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: defense without having a turnover, which, you know, knock the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: kid as much as he went for that dumb sack
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: he gave up, but that's a veteran playing type of quarterback.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: That's a really tough defense to have. Vikings defense all
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: season he played great. So I get what the professionals
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: coming on. This is such a huge number. They believe
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: that calebill will make it to the back door. Totally
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: get where they're coming from. But I'm the viewpoint of
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: what you just said. This Detroit team is different. They're
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: a total complete teams, special teams, defense and offense. It's
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: all there. And defensively, I've I think they're gonna actually
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: struggle the Bears against this Detroit defense in this spot.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: And I look at the offense, like you just talked
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: about the running style. How do we not bank that
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: that's the Bears' biggest weakness and that's exactly what the
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Troy wants to do. They want to impose their will.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: So we already saw the crazy stats from Evan, the
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: fact that you know, favorites are ten points or more.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: They're just covering machines on Thanksgiving. We talked about that,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: and you know, golf, this is shocking with Detroit and
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: him and Campbell. He's zero to three straight up on Thanksgiving.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: So last year he got upset straight up against Jordan Love.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: It believe they were seven and a half point favorite
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: something like that, And obviously I was on Detroit side.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: I cannot see that happening again with this team like it,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: just like I get last year they got caught off guard.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: But that Jordan Love team this is a totally different
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: steering air, a different spot. So yeah, this this one's
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: not gonna scare me off. Even if it was ten
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: and a half, I still would to take Detroit here
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: in this number.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I've honestly, I haven't done it yet because I was
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: staring at the ten and a half, it was staying
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: at minus one ten, and I was just waiting, knowing
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that there was some rumbling from the professional betting community
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: that they were on the bears. You could start to
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: see a little bit in how that money was moving
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: that I felt like it was going to go to ten,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: and it still may go down further, So I'm happy
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to wait here. You mentioned the rush Bears twenty sixth
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: in run stop win Ray, what basically means they're not
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: very good at getting off the ball. Their rush defense
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: is truly terrible. They've allowed fewer than one hundred and
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: nineteen rushing yards just three times this season, fewer than
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: one hundred yards just twice, once to Jacksonville. And we're
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: talking about a Lions team that runs the ball with
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: abandon on third and long like, because they play every series.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: If it's it's a full four ounce, they play all
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: four downs. They don't give up twenty five percent of
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: their opportunities to get a first down. So third and
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: eight they're giving it to Jumior Gibbs and thinking, great,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: we get four yards. We're going to go four on
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: fourth and four anyways, So it's a mismatch in every regard.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Just to finish it off, the trend stats from
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Evan Thanksgiving favorites double digits, so ten points are more
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: eleven and zero against the spread. Since nineteen ninety, Favorites
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: of seven points or more Thanksgiving twenty nine and five
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: straight up, twenty five and nine against the spread. So yeah,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: this is a day for trends, and that's a trend
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: you cannot ignore. We wanted to stay apparently at ten
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: chat that would actually good for us. This is great.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: You know, there's some things in life that just fit.
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: And I think when you talk about football, Thanksgiving, traditional
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: rivalries and being there, that's a good fit.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving to you.
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: And Happy Thanksgiving to you, and we have it all
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: again today, the tradition of Thanksgiving and football.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: All right, you talked about the Giants. They're at Dallas.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: The spread is four, or you said it on Sunday night.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: This line has gone up in the past forty eight hours,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: from two and a half to three all the way
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. There's a little buy back
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: at four and a half. I mean, look, I understand
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the logic. I know what's the number we should play.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I don't really want anything to do with it. I'm
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: glad it's not going to be a contest play.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: I can't believe this. It feels like such a spot
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: for us. We just we can fait Cooper rush off
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: a dramatic win on the road coming Home now against
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: you know, Dany Vito just got destroyed. I mean they
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: got to the trash is a gold mine.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: He plays like Dana DeVito, but his name is Tommy DeVito.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: He's just terrible. So yeah, I'm just I get where
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: people are coming from. I get why your hesitation here,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: But to me, I don't think the Giants are as
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: bad as they look. That was just a really well
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: prepared Buckston that just absolutely rolled them. You know, it
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: was not really a good prepared team. The Cowboys they're bad.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: They're a bad coach team. So looking at this matchup
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: feels like we're getting what a free point and a
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: half here? This is this line has been bumped up
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: all up to four now at this point, So I
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: love it. And I talked about those trends that evn't
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: talked about where it's like, okay, the Cowboys are always
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: going a couple extra points right a quote unquote America's team,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: especially on Thanksgiving, this is a unique spot where it's
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: like all the money is really pouring in all them,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: like this is going to be probably the biggest knee dog,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: And usually when favorites got a ton of money on Thanksgiving,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: I picked them, right, that's that you want to be
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: on the really chalky side on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: are a little different. So you know, they're two and
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: eleven against the spread the last thirteen Thanksgiving games, feeling
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: to cover by nine points per game. That's pretty insane.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Off the top, they haven't won a back to back.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: They haven't won it covered. I should say back to
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: back Thanksgiving game since Tony Roum went oh eight and
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: oh nine. So I guess if you're one of those
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: people that think they're due, I guess this is your spot.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: Take the Cowboys here, and it is what we just
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: talked to. The Giants are reeling right now. It looks
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: like a good team that might have quit, but it's really
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: I just have to play this number and take this
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: plus four with this Giants teams.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: So hard to figure out when to block out the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: noise and when to lean into the noise. Yeah, we
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: have two New York teams. You mentioned to the Jets
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: as being a wise guy play. We're going to get
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: into the Jets in a little bit and just a
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: little foreshadowing. The noise on the Jets right now doesn't
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: bother me at all. The noise on. The Giants completely
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: bothers me because I think they're so beaten down by
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the fact that Saquan is running for two hundred and
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: fifty five yards and they just got rid of their
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: best quarterback. I think the players have lost faith in
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: management and the players. Malik Nighbors has clearly lost faith
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: in Brian Dables play conk. I'm not saying it's not
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the right side. The number says it's the right side.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to sort of cognitively separate when I decide
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: playing the right number over rides any noise that I'm
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: hearing from the team versus the noise doesn't bother me.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: What is that? What is that mechanism? As you would say,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I'm overthinking it. Play the fucking number. Yeah, Miami at
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. Green Bay is minus three. We jumped on
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: it at three and a half. H I don't get it, like,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: why did this move and did we jump on it
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: too soon? I get that Jordan Love isn't playing well,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: which could be impacting the line a little bit. And
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I know like perception wise, Tua has been great since
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: he came back, but he dominated the Raiders and the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Patriots and the Raiders were down by five with just
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: over three minutes left in the game. And I'm not
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not crediting them for beating the Rams. I think
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the Rams beat themselves in that game. So why is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: this line moving the other direction?
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Simon says, gimme green Bay minus three. Chad, we do
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: what s say. Wow, I don't get it. I love
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: this number. I think you're nailing it. Though. The general
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: public must just love to right now, right everyone's drinking
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: the two a cool ad. It's it's understandable that offense
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: did look really good and even their defense has looked
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: better these last couple of weeks. I'll give them some
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: credit for that. Like you know that that Rams win
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: has sparked something in them a couple weeks ago, where
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: you're right though, they've just been beating up on bad
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: teams since then. The Rams might be a bad team.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: So you know, I don't think Green Bay is a
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: bad team, to say, playoff team. That's you know, in
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: one of the toughest divisions of football. And you know,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: if they've been winning a lot of really tough, ugly games,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: and I agree with you, like that that Bears game
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: I think taught them a lot. Not I'm not trying
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: to say it taught them a lot about Jordan Love,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: but I think it made them realize they do need
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: to just lean on the run, right, that's their bread
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: and butter. Jacobs has kind of been the motor for them,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: and that doesn't change for this matchup Miami. You know,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: as good as they are running the ball, I don't
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: really think they're a good team at stopping the run,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: and especially when it's cold. And like we talked about
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: these trends from Evan, he had some amazing trends just
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: about Miami and cold weather. And we know we're being
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: it to death, but it's like that's a real thing.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: That team coming from the South up to the north
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: and it's gonna be really cold, right. I think they're
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: saying it could be in the twenties when this game starts,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: like twenty five twenty six degrees, and you know, Miami
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: zero and four straight up. You know, when two is
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: playing with them in this cold weather, he's one and
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: three against the spread. They're feeling to cover by eighteen
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: points per game in those matchups, Like that's not fluky,
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: that's a real thing. And to me, the fact we're
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: getting minus three. Now. It's just totally about the perception
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: of the two quarterbacks. I just think the jerdnal love
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: hates going too far at this point, the Tua loves
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: getting too much love, and this is the kind of
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: a game that they come crashing back down on earth,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: this Miami team, Right, So I'm running to grab that
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: minus three. I just I can just say going back
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: up to three and a half in the next couple
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: hours or maybe the next couple of days.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can see in the app. I've already bet
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the three and a half. I will as soon as
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: we get off the show, as long as it's still around,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: bet the three as well. You mentioned to sort of
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread away from home versus winning teams. I
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: want to remind people when he beat the Rams, the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Rams were not a winning team, So Tua going on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: the road to beat the Rams does not count as
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden they've reframed who they are. I
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: just think, like, this is the spot you bet against them.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: I like the matchup, I like the trends. I think
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: it's in our favor. Matt Lafleur, excuse me. At home
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: twenty three and fourteen, as a favorite. That's sixty one percent.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Go peck go.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: Went no, it's not jump.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: All right. You mentioned the Chiefs and you said exactly
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: what I put in the script. Do we just suck
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: it up and bet the number? Do we not be
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: distracted or dissuaded by noise, perception, past experience, and the
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: emotion of it all. Patrick Mahomes is a ten point
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: favorite in the division forty five percent, and it's happened
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: twenty one times for all divisions. By the way, the
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: against the spread record for Phasian the spot is forty
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: eight percent, so he's actually worse than sort of the
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: average for every other division. This number is down from
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. I don't know if it's going
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: to be de Desmond, ridder Aid and O'Connell, ken Stabler.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I think we're just betting the twelve and a half.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's they don't feel good about it, but this
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: is what we did. It's just playing the number. And
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: I wanted, honestly to be on the Chiefs, and I
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: was trying to find reasons to lie to myself for
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: It's like, no, this is the spot to take them,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: but man, they have what three games in the next
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: sixteen to fifteen days something crazy where it's like they
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: got to play this game, then they got a Saturday game,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: and they have the whatever that is a Wednesday game
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: because of Christmas in the next couple weeks, Like December
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: is a really weird month. The next twenty five days
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: is gonna be very weird for this Chiefs team. So
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: we saw Carolina, they let them get back in the
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: game because they take the foot off the gas. And uh,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: it's not shocking anyone that he's never covered as a
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: bigger than a ten point favorite. Mahmes. He just even
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: when they had all those dominant teams a Tyreek Hill,
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: that's pretty shocking. They never covered as a big favorite
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: right there there. Whoever, it is four and one. They
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: pushed Uh one time at landed right on ten. So
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: we talk all the time, we're just taking the number,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: taking the value, and yeah, we'll take this Raiders at
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: either plus thirteen plus twelve and a half and just
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: pray we get a find like a backdoor here on
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: like what they did last week.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Look, I think the number is going to go up
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: because I think people will come in on Black Friday
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: and see, oh my god, the Chiefs are playing the Raiders.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? And what? I don't actually think
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs take the foot off the gas. I think,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: and we've seen this for a couple of years. They're
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: just entirely different team in the second half. We even
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: saw it against the Bills, Like they go for long
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: sustain drives. They have the benefit of Patrick Mahomes who
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: converts third downs at an other worldly rate fifty two
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: point seven percent converting third downs. That is like third
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: best this century. I read that on ESPN Dot Calm
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: this morning. And that allows them to be more conservative
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: in their play calling in the second half to bleed
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: the clock. They know, oh, if the game is close
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: and they get an opportunity with Patrick Mahomes, there's no
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: value in putting themselves in a position to be in
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a shootout, or to put themselves in position to make
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: bad turnovers that will give the other team an advantage.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: So just go slow, and I think that allows teams
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: that are big dogs to stay in it for longer.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: That's what I think. What do you think of that?
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting theory.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: By the way you say it, it feels a little bit
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: like you're like you're patting me on the head.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: Well, they're the best second half team in all football, right, Evan.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: I mean they no one covers more than the Chiefs
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: in the second half. They're just they're great to run
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: the ball down team's throat and just burn the clock
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: and their defensive stout. But I just agree, I do
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: agree with what you're saying.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, it doesn't feel like you support it. I gave
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: it a lot of thought and you're like, eh, just
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: bet the number. Guess what. It's time for Big Balls
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  Speaker 1: Week is going to be the New York Jets plus
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  Speaker 1: two and a half against Seattle.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: This sucks and it's horseshit, But I'm too polite to
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: say anything because I'm a class act.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Everything I said about the Giants leaning away from the noise,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning into it with the Jets. And I know
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: you agree here, I know the wise guys agree. You
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: mentioned it, and sharp calls Woody Johnson, the owner of
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: the Jets. He's basically entered his Montgomery Burns slash George
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Steinbrenner phase of his ownership reign. He's done being the
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: quiet guy. He doesn't say anything wearing his Jets hat.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: He is firing his coaches without telling one. He is
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: trading for DeVante Adams without telling anyone. He's thinking about
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: benching Aaron Rodgers the coup de gras. Last week, he
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: fired hiss GM after landing on the practice field in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: a helicopter. At that moment, the GM Joe Douglas joked
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to a coach he was standing next to, if I
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: and then he did actually get fired. The helicopter landing
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: is kind of my favorite part of all this, Like
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: fuck this noise. Literally, I'm so done with all you people.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I think you know, off of Bye, I think it's chaos.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: No reason to back Geno Smith off at two games
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: in which he's like slinging red zone interceptions but still
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: making valiant comebacks in the final two minutes. Give me
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: the Jets. Jets, Jet Jets.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is such a spot we can't avoid. I'm
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: with you. It feels a little sick, right, It's it's
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: like Baine saying we were born in the darkness. It's
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: it's really a sick play. But it's a number. We
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: have to take this numbers move too much off Seattle
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: when that yes, their defense played really well, but me
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: and Chat both agreed. I felt like that was more
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: about Kyler than anything else. I did go back watched
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: Out twenty two and he did have guys open, and
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: when you do break it down, it's like, Okay, this
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: Jets team, for all that the hell is going on
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: with them, they still have an all that can move
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: the ball. I know that people are just down on Rogers, right.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: They think they're either gonna cut them and release them
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: just because the owner hates them and everything terrible going on.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I totally get the public reception right now, but we
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: don't really think that way. We're really just playing the numbers.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: And the fact that this has moved two and a
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: half because it's his negative vibes with the Jets is
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: a very bizarre movement here and makes total sense of
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: the public is just hammering this number. It's one of
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: the more bet on sides right now early in the week,
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: which is shocking because usually people don't really bet the Sundays,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: right They're gonna put all their money into the Thursday
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: games and then they'll roll it over into the Sundays.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: But that's how bad this Jets use. Guys are already
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: putting their parlays and their teasers together with this Seahawks team,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: and I just look at this matchup. Is the Jets
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: ris bad public perception? I know they're three and eight,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: but it's like after the bye week, Chad, like you
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: just said, isn't this it Like, isn't this their last stand?
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: I mean at this point with the number, it's just
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: it feels like it's too good to pass on in
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: just the matchup wise as well, I think there's a
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: lot of ways they can actually get get after Genos
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Smith and offensively that they can move the ball against
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks defense. So yeah, give me them at plus
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: two and a half every time.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's terrible. I know we haven't really been
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: on the Jets at all since almost Week one.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: Took a nice break from them.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we loved them week one against the Niners, and
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: we've sort of walked away from them. It's funny how
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: we both sort of felt like this might be the time.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: To me, this is it's as much a bet against
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Gino in Seattle. I don't think we really know who
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: this team is yet, and I don't know that we're
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: taking a lot from a last second win against a
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: very challenged San Francisco team that was impacted directly by
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Nick Bosa being out of that game. And that was
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the difference. Like if you go back and look, they were,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: they were in good shape in that game. He was
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: playing great, Gino was playing confused and discombobulated, and then
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: he goes out and Gino gets that last two minute
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: drive and they win the game. And last week, like
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: he was not good, it was the Cardinals who were bad.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: So I think they're getting they're getting a bounce for
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: being a public perception bounce, not a performance bounce. Simon.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Speaking of performance, we're in the final weeks of the
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Favorites Pittsburgh at Cincinnati numbers at two
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: and a half. What's most surprising to me about this, Simon,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: is that we questioned betting Mike Tomlin as a dog
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: on the road off of the loss. The number touched
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: three for a minute on Monday. I bet at three.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: You can see it in the app. Am. I you
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: would tell me not to overthink, but you and I
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: actually haven't talked about this game at all, and I
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: can't tell from your expression as I normally can when
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: you're all in with me or.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Not get them ready to take the failed every series.
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: I'm not all in, but I am betting it, but
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: I'm there are a little hesitation here with me.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: With Pittsburgh. It's like when do we get off the
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: train that we've been riding all season because they had
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: been really good to us, and we fade them last
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: week and it was a nice spot and I think
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: we even mean you joked about like a lot of
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: those games that we bet them on, it was really
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: about the Tomlin and the number in the spot, and
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: it's like, we don't know how we covered those numbers.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: It just got there. We feel very fortunate to get there,
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: and I think most Pittsburgh's fans feels fortunate. But yeah,
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: the fact that, you know whatever, Cincinnati is four and
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: seven and they're a three point favorite here is pretty
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: telling where it's like they just know this division is
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: really weird, where it like, doesn't you throw the records
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: out right, and it's all about the matchups and that's
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: what they're kind of banking on here. So if you
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: can stuck at the plus three on Pittsburgh, I would
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: take it, you know, I just I don't want to
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: be backing since even at two and a half, I
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: just I feel more confident in Pittsburgh. I trust the
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: trust and number, I trust what they have, which is
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: a really good defense and offense that with Russell Wilson
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: as a move in the ball. Like for the most part,
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: I know obviously last week wasn't their best game, but
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: like that was just a fishy, short week Thursday game.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: So that's what I might having a hard time. I'm
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: not trying to react to just that one game. And
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: just like you said, trust Tomlin in this spot against
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: the Bengals team that you know, as great as Joe
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Burrow has been They've been overrated all season, and like
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: the number reflects that. Like every week for the most part,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: people have come in on their side and just been disappointment,
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: and they don't care. They come back the next week
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: just because Joe Burrow is just putting up video game numbers.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's all about the number, right, So shop
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: around find that plus.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Three Towlin is the most profitable coach as a dog
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years, covering it a sixty two percent
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: clip on the road, same is true, same number as
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: a dog in the division. On the road, the number
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: goes up to sixty four percent when the spread is
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: between one and three. If this was three, I'd make
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: it my exact decision.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: I'm so bummed to drop down because that would have
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: been right right on the nose. That'd been a great pick.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: It would have been the exact number that I wanted
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: it to be at. You gotta check the numbers, folks,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: set the alerts in the Action Network app. It may
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: get back there. I have a feeling if it gets
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to three going to be one o'clock in the morning
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: when only people like Simon are checking and wise guys
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: will buy it at three again, but be on the lookout.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: So bit we set responsibility for that. We will not
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: go gently. We're going to unleash hell here in December.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go into tack mode because we have to,
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: because that's what's required.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Indie at New England, really interesting game. The line opened
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the record, I bet it at two and a half.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I wish we had kind of discussed this on Sunday.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Do you feel like we missed it? I kind of
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: feel like we missed it on Sunday. I don't know why.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe we were a little bit sort of clouded by
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: our faith in the Colts being shattered against the Lions.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: But I feel like we missed the opportunity to buy
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: it a little bit shorter.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: I mean there's still two and a halves out there
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: if you like the Colts. I got no issue with it.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: I got no read on this game. I'll be honest, Chad,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: like I want to take the Colts with you, especially
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: at two and a half. It feels a good number,
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: but it's like another thing where it's like why is
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: this not three three and a half? Like who is
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: backing the Patriots after what just happened in Miami. Like,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: it's only going to be professionals, not anyone on the
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: public side. So it's just a little bit of a
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: fishy line. That's maybe my hesitation here because I think
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: the Colts are a better coach team, a better team
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: on the field. Like it just feels like a nice
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: spot to back this Colts team, especially after what six
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: point performance against one of the best teams in all
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: of football. But we've seen teams that played Detroit for
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: some reason, they're just beat the hell the following week
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: and they've struggled this year. It's crazy that other teams
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: just beat the hell out of them like that. So yeah,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: if you came to me Sunday morning, you were like,
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: it's still two and a half. I really love the
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Colts here. I love this matchup. I'm not going to
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: fight John it just because I've loved this Colts team
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: all season. It's really about playing the number two where
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: if it's under three, I agree with you that the
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: value is on the Colts here. I just I haven't
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: pulled the trigger on either side betting this one.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I guess I look at this as the Colts against
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the best team in the NFL, not as the Colts
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: being a bad team. Yeah, we know they're effective on
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the ground. We know they have an offensive line that
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: is top five in run blocking metrics. We even saw
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: like Anthony Richardson dominated in that first quarter as a runner.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: And sure we've been happily surprised with Drake May it's
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: throwing the ball, but the Colt secondary is actually really good,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: like top five and deep coverage, which is where Drake
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: does his damage. Seventh in coverage when they blit ninth
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: against play action. Play action is what helps rookie quarterbacks
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: the most. If New England could effectively run the ball,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: but they can't and their bottom five and stopping their
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: run and it's the worst pass defense in the league,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: and it's the lowest ring team according to DVA DVOA.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I'm so close to making it the exact decision, but
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. Second game in a row. I
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: like them, I like them, I've bet them. You can
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: see it in the app with the Steelers and the Packers,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: but it's not the exact decision. Arizona Minnesota three and
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: a half. I guess I feel like this is the
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: exact right line. I think the Vikings are better across
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: every metric. The line reflects it. I can't I can't
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: find a reason to want to back Kyler here, can
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: you No?
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: And I have it at four and a half. So
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, model likes the Vikings. I kind of
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: like the Vikings as well. On the spot, it's like
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: we've seen this Cardinals team. They are good, but a
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: lot of their wins, like we joke about, they feel
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: like they've been a little lucky about the spots they've
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: been in that when they do face we're the good teams,
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: they kind of get dominated, right And you know, not
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: that I'm saying Stocksford a good team last week, I think,
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: you know, like I said, Kyler hadn't missed opportunities. But
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: this Vikings team, I've come around on it. We're like
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: they're a good team. Like San Darnold in that game
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: against the Bears, he was next to flawless, Like he
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: really played an amazing game.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: He was great, actually was better, he was better after
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: he got knocked out for the play. Nick Marlins comes in,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: converts the first down. Sam Donald comes limping back on
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: and he was fucking throwing darts. And dimes and lasers.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the call by Kimin o'contoo, and like
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: you know, they're bringing the backup quarterback and he just
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: has a really perfect play out up for an easy
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: read pass.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: He's such a good coach.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Now he's in his back, He's really good. And that
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: was another game where Justin Jefferson was shut down. Right,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: I think he had two catches total.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson, Yeah, but like he still who says Jalen
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Johnson's not top one hundred.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Sam Donald still had a great game, which is just like, Okay,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: he's using all his weapons. And we haven't talked much
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: about TJ hockets are coming back for that offense. How
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: big of a deal that was. So Yeah, I think
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: they're a better team. Like you just said, the number,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: I agree with. It does feel right, makes sense. Like
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Kyler was a dog, He's actually been pretty profitable in
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: these type of spots, especially when it's above a field goal.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: But I do think that they're gonna struggle against his
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Vikings defense and offensively, I just trust his Vikings team
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: be able to move the ball, especially against a Cardinals
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: team that we've seen this season, like they run that zone.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: They make it really tough to score in the red zones.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: But when they go against really good coaching that can
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: scheme things up, like we stuck with Kevin O'Connell, they'll
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: find holes. He's gonna find ways for them to begin
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: the end zone. They had been doing it all season.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: So yeah, to me, numbers three four and a half.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: It's three and a half. I'm gonna take that value
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: on the Vikings right now.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: It did come down a tick. It was it for
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: so a little bit of money came in on the
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: on the Cardinals there at four and moved down to
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: three and a half. But I think I agree with you,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: not a contest play if it's if you have to
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: bet it, bet the Vikings. The next game Tennessee at Washington.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: It's at five and a half. So frustrating. This was
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: at seven right before we went on the air on Sunday.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: I wrote it down on our list to talk about
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, and while we were on the air, it
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: had moved from six and a half to six. I
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: wanted up for the record. We could clip it if
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: we have to. You said I was sharp. If you
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: remember saying that. Can I get confirmation.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because you were ahead of the movement.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: That was a good call, was ahead of the move
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: I feel like I need a little bit more positive affirmation.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: You know, Matt Mitchell was yelling at me all morning, So.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Uh, you're a star, Chad. Don't worry about that.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, you didn't have to say that. That's
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: that's too much. Chad Milman is proud of himself. Now
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: it's down to five and a half. And look, I
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: think there are so many reasons to fade the commanders here.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: We've hit the cliff cliff, the cliff Kingsbury second half
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: of the season where his teams have historically fallen off
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: the cliff. And you know, I love Bill Barnwell. If
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: you want more details on this, read Barnwell's column from
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Monday on ESPN dot com. He went through this whole
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: me of reasoning that shows the cliff cliff. It's all circumstantial,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: right Like in college, the cliff cliff happened because he
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: went from playing bad teams to playing good teams in
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: his conference. In the pros with Kyler, he went from
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: having Kyler to Kyler being consistently injured in the second
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: half of the season and not always having him, so
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: you can see the logic. But whatever the reason, it
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: always happens. And now Jaden Daniels is struggling. So part
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: of that has to be he's not making the right
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: adjustments for his team and the personnel that he has,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: and they continue to do the things that he might
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: scheme up for the best players he has. Maybe Jaden
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Daniels struggling because of his rib injury, the running game
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: is struggling. We have to ask ourselves, Simon, maybe I'm
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: trying to convince you is a defense that is twenty
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: first in past rush, twenty ninth in coverage, good enough
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: to force Will Levis into making enough stakes. That's the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: only reason we wouldn't bet the Titans is Will let us.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is uh the Will Levis. You know, he
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: just throws deep like there is no other way to
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: describe but his is playing style. He's either getting sacked,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: throwing a pick six, or throwing a perfect dime twenty
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: five yards downfield, like you know on a rope or
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: a touchdown. There there's no one between. So you just
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: said it. I honestly thought we would get to six
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: six and a half just because of what we talked
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: about where it's like the general public guy thought would think, Okay,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Will Love is coming off a win, easy spot to
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: fade him and take a Washington team that you know,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: I said earlier in the year they were one of
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: my favorite teams to watch. But we talked that the
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: way he was playing, Jaye Daniels was looked like a
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: guy who had never been hit before in the NFL. Right,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: he was so calm, cool in the pocket, took what
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: the defense would give him, either run it or have
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: some amazing play where he put the ball downfield. Now
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: he looks like someone that's like every time he's thinking
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: about taking the ball on he's just like, do I
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: want to break my ribs again? Is this worth the
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: scramble here? And he's in between different reads And even
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: that game against Dallas, like he didn't get going until
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: they put him in the two minute drill offense, which
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: again I don't get why they don't just run all
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: the time. He looks so much more comfortable when they
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: spread everyone out and let him kind of dictate the
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: way the offense is going to run. Yeah, this is
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: I guess my hesitation is just the Will Loves factor.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Chad but you just now it's like playing let's just
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: play this number. This number should be closer to three
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: and a half. Four. This is not this washing team
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: they were early in the year. They don't deserve this
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: much respect that they're getting still from the bookmakers. So
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: unfortunately we missed the six. But I would still take
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: this down to three and a half.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm so this was top two for my
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: executive decision.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Holy shit, pick one already, all right, I'm doing it.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans exec decision plus five and a half.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: av your honors?
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: Text to kill number?
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Executive decision, let's freaking do it. Gonna play the number.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Houston at Jacksonville. You mentioned Jacksonville was a wise guy
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: played here. The numbers come down. Look, if we were
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: betting every game, we would take the Jags. We are
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: not betting every game. I'm having a hard time seeing
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: it with Mac Jones, even off a bye. This is
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: a dreadful, dreadful team. I know the number is too big.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I know Houston's struggling, but they did get Will Anderson back.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: They did sack Will Levis eight times last week in
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: the first half or however many times it was. And
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: unlike will Levis, mac Jones is terrible throwing the ball downfield.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: He has no redeeming qualities as a quarterback. So I'm
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: struggling with this one.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which is understandable. It's honestly to me about playing
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: the number in this Jags team, how they've been historically
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: against Houston, right even when they had bad players and
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: bad quarters, and you know, they're one of the worst
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: teams on football. I mean even the Minshew days, it
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: feels like they would play pretty well against this Houston team.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: I could be miss risk for memering. But you know,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: the number, like you said, has come down, So I'm
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: not going to force you to put it in check
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: because I did get the best of the number. And
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: it's like, I'm not going to force it, but can
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: I make it? Force it into the money line? Rob
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: and Robin like, can we please take the Jags on
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: the money line? Coach? Totally this defense, this this division
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: to me is totally wonky up in the air, where
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: every team has issues and red flags and things you
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: can kind of attack and expose. And right now, this
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: Houston team, you would think this would be the perfect
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: spot to them to get back on track. But we've
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: seen it now where CJ's is not great as a favorite,
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: he's just he just does not cover as he does
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: when he's a dog usually, So you know that's that's
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: kind of been his his problem this season is he's
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: a guy who you know, one play he'll look great
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: and have the perfect deep ball to Nico Collins and
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: the next one was like makes inexcusable picks in his
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: own territory with thirty seconds left in the half. It's
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: like he was more veteran like last year than he
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: has been this year. This year he's been more happy
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: feet panic, not really sinking into the offense, trusting where
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: that could because he's still taking a lot of hits
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: chat just like last year. So you know that does
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: wearing a player, especially someone into their second year. So, uh,
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: I get your hesitation here. It's not fun backing mac
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Jones as a dog in this spot, but it is
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: really about playing this number. This number, I have a
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: closer to four. It's only five, kind of a dead
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: zone number. It's I'm not going to force you to
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: take this one.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I think I think that the Texans offensive line is
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: just so bad. Yeah, that he's uncomfortable, and I think
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: schematically teams have changed what they're doing against him from
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: last year and that's also making him a comfortable still
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: a huge fantas CYJ. Stroud. But yeah, let's just not
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: even talk about this one anymore, because I do want
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: to talk about the Chargers the Falcons. I could not
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: come up with a take here, and like, I wanted
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: to love the Chargers, but I worry about their pressure
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: on Kirk Cousins and can they really do things that
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: will make Kirk Cousins uncomfortable as a dog at home?
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: So I liked hearing that the wise guys were on
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: the Chargers a little bit. Tell me what you're thinking
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: and what you're hearing.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Now, did you watch that Charges game with the Ravens
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: last naar or no?
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: Every second? You know why? I tailed Sean Kerner, who
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: had will Disley over thirty nine and a half receiving
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: yards and through fifty eight minutes. In about thirty seconds,
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: he had thirty eight, three targets, three catches, including the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: first catch for eighteen yards, and Justin Herbert like was
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: dropping back two seconds through downd Field was barely looking
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: for Disley, so I was just sweating him getting one
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: more dump off and he got it in the final drive.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: So yes, I watched every second of the game, and honestly,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: I watched every second of the game and thought it
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: completely changed when JK. Dobbins went out and it puts
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: so much pressure on Herbert and the offensive line is
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: not very good in the middle of the line that
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: they couldn't really function. So I don't know if JK.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Dobbins is playing this week. I don't know what the
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: status is, but I thought that had an impact on
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: the game.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: I agree. I thought Chargers though that you know, even
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: though they did lose, they showed me a lot of
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: knocks in the game where it's like, you know they
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: are a playoff team that you know they run into
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: a jugging out like Lamar, if he's on, what are
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: you gonna do? Like that was such a Lamar Derek Henry.
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: That combo just kills you as the game goes along,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: and you know, early on I believe it was ten nothing.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: It's like, you know, there's Chargers team, they're really good,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: but they can't be kicking those field goals and we
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: go talk all the time Lamar is gonna get his eventually,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: and you know him getting that touchdown right before half
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: and then getting the ball back to start the second half,
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: it's like he's such a killer with that. We talk
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: all the time. There's veteran quarterbacks that do that. You know,
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: it's such a game changer getting that fourteen point swing.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: So this Chargers team, to me, when we're looking at
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: this match, we gets Atlanta, They're like what Atlanta wants
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: to be. They're well coached, tough as hell, and consistent
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: defensively and offensively. And you know, the hesitation for me
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: is just they're traveling in a short week, right, Isn't
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: that not ideal? Especially after playing that Ravens team against
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: you know, Atlanta team coming off their bye week, Like,
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: I get the rest advantages towards them. So we've seen
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: earl here that you know, the public has come in
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta like that makes whole sense to me. But
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: you know, from my perspective, a lot of the pros
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: I've talked to, it's just like the Chargers are a
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: better team. They're just being overlooked because they were just
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: in a Monday night game and they just got Lamart,
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: Like It's no fault of that Chargers team. It's you know,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: the big brother always beats a little brother, right, That's
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: just how it is. So I think we're getting good
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: value here. I was honestly gonna make this, Simon says,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: but a couple of books have already moved it to two.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: But you can still get the one and a half.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: I love this number on the Chargers team, that just
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: they are the more complete team. Reminds me a little
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: bit when the Seahawks came in and played this Atlanta team.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: This kind of matchup of you know, two teams that
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: we've seen in the Atlanta team, they're just not that
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: good against really good teams or just teams that are above,
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: you know, the bottom feeders of their own division. So,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: you know, if if we can sell on this NFC
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: South against this team, then the charge that we believe
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be the seven or six seed in the AFC,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: how do they not bounce back and win this game.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: This is a must win for this Chargers team, especially
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: if they hope to get that back door seed, because
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: we've seen it like Denver's coming for them, like they're
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: coming for that last remaining playoff spot. So yeah, I
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: like this Chargers team being desperate here especially had a
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: key number under two. Yeah, it's a great matchup. Do
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: you want to make it foxhol or do you have
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: another game in mind?
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: No, I would do foxhol with the Chargers with me, Yeah,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll go foxhole because
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: you know what, it scares me, and I do think
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: that people are going to want to bet Atlanta. They're
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: coming off a bye they're at home. It's a short week,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: huge travel for the Chargers, not even like middle of
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: the country travel, like we're going deep South travel. You
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: got to take that extra forty five minutes on the
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: plane travel. So uh, it's a tough spot. So we've
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: got a lot of things working against us. So yeah,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: let's foxhole it. Los Angeles Chargers minus two right now? Fantastic.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Oh God, Tampa Bay at Carolina, it's at six. Let's
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: move from six and a half to six. We know
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are on it. We talked about it
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. We leaned Panthers. I just wonder can we
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: go back to the well, Like, can the Panthers at
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: plus six be in our contest? Forget about betting them.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: We got to bet them. We like the number, we
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: like the spot. We think it's still too much tilted
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: towards Tampa Bay. But can we put him in the contest?
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Uh? I would even if it was five and a half,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: I could force us to put it in. I just
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: we saw last week with this Carolina team, like there,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: it feels like their offense has really figured things out.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: They're kind of inner groove here. And you know, obviously
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: Bryce Young was out of this world good last week.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: We saw the crazy numbers. He was like not perfect
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: against the blitz, but just about perfect against it. Like
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: he always made the right read, which you know, that
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: was why he was drafted where he was at he
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: was Apparently he was like a football genius and that
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: was one of the things they fell in love with that,
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: Like this guy was so good at reading defense and
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: picking things up, and we hadn't seen that for about
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: a year and a half. And whatever's changed for him
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: sitting out and be on the sideline and him embracing
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: it it's worked. I mean, his last three games, his
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: last three covers, Like we've all seen it. So I'm
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: with you, it's a little scary because it's like we
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: we've been riding these guys and we're gonna go back
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: for one more. But it really is just about this
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: match with Tampa that we've seen it. Tampa, they're they're
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: a good team. We know they're better obviously with Mike
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: Mike Evans back, but they're not the team that you
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: know they just blow out the Giants and they just
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: they don't do that right. They usually keep keep games
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: pretty damn close. That's what their m has been, especially
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: since Baker's been there, and this divisional game and this
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: matchup them on the road. We like Carolina at home,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: like that's we've always joked about. But Carolina has just
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: been better with Bryce Shawn at home. Uh, in these
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: outdoor matchup. I mean even last year, going back to
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: one of our favorite bets was Carolina Evernce that Houston
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: team and it was outdoors and I remember Houston was
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: getting all the love and somehow Carolina pulled the upset.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: It's just the type of team they are where it's
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: like they're for some reason better at home, especially as
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: a dog. And this this is no different. This is
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: another game where we're definitely gonna force this one in
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: the money line around Robin Jeez. We've got like.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: The Colts and if we can get the good number
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: the Steelers but also the Jet Tennessee the Chargers traveling
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: potentially injured Carolina. Now we're getting back to our roots
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: and look forgetting any analysis. If we were just looking
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: at public perception and the number, it'd be a no brainer.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Bucks coming off of a blowout win Baker ballin Panthers.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Still Losers played well, but it's still Bryce Young in
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: the perception of that, So it makes sense that we're
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: talking about it. I just don't like it. La Rams
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: at New Orleans New Orleans plus three. This one's ticked
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: up a little bit plus three. You like this one
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: with the Saints on Sunday. I don't know if we're
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: still feeling that way. You and I have vastly different
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: opinions on the Rams. On the Rams and the Eagles
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: last week, and my issue with the Rams, and I'm
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: sort of supporting the Saints. I'm not saying I want
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: to do it is I think their offensive line is terrible,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: even healthy, they just they they've been wildly inconsistent in
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: protection and overall on offense. We saw it against the Dolphins,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: we saw it against the Patriots, both of those things.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: Bad offensive line play, inconsistent execution against the Eagles. Like,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: does our opinion change now that the Rams have lost
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: so badly? McVeigh on the road as a favorite off
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: a loss twenty seven, nineteen to three, Like it feels
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: like a better spot for the Rams, which could be
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: why it's ticked up.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, coming to my old thought was that the Rams
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: have struggled against the run. And I know that sounds
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: like a weird way to back the Eagles a previous speak,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: but I thought the Rams were going to move the
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: ball against he was defense and that they would have
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: a lead and they would have to you know, not
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: that though the Eagles stop running ball. But I feel
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: like that was gonna be the game changer that once
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: I got a lead, Eagles be pressing having to pass
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: the ball, Barye. That's what the Eagles don't want to do.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: The Rams, man, their their defense is way worse against
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: the run that even I thought, and that's what the
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: Saints want to do. They want to run the ball,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: and we always talk about that's what their identity has
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: been like when they were being great early in the season,
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: it was because they ran the ball and they could
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: set up play action putting the ball downfield. And that's
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: really been what the the key to the success has
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: been for this Saints team this year. So yeah, I
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: don't feel as strongly as I do it back because
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: what you just said, like the Rams, this is this
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: is for their season now, like this is it this
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: If they lose this, they know that they're playoffs, it's all,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: it's totally over. I mean, it already might be over.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: But I get that that's why this numbers kicked up, right,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: I think the public and the pros are and look
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: from that standpoint of you know, I think the Rams
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: are still a better team. They're still healthy offensively. If
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: it turns into a shootout, who would you rather have
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: Stafford or Derek Carr. So I totally get their perspective
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: of this game in this matter, But it really is
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: to me, comes down to what the Saints team wants
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: to do. Run the ball. And you know, they might
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: have found something last week with Taysom Hill, like that
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: that there is always a point where they put him
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: in until he gets hurt. And we don't know if
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: this week we will get hurt. But when he is running,
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: that switch up is pretty deadly. And we just seen
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: the Eagles the way they just ran down this RAMS
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: team's throat, like you can make huge holes. They don't
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: have an Aaron Donald in that middle that really can
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: give you any type of fits to run the ball
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: against this Rams team. So that's my perspective of the Jets, Like,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: am I going to make this one of our five chat?
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: And I probably won't force it in there.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: We still got a couple of games to talk about
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: that I feel pretty good about, okay, including the Eagles
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's not a three point favorite after they'll win over
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: the Chargers last night. It's gone up from two and
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: a half to three. Lamar as last night favorite of
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: three or lass or a dog twenty six and six
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: in the regular season against the spread. So the questions
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: that we have to ask ourselves, do we think the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: Ravens defense improved? Do we think they just got lucky
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: that JK. Dobbins didn't play in the second half. Do
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: we think the Eagles are potentially overvalued because of what
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Saquon did? Like I thought they did to the Rams
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: exactly what they're great at. They rushed the passer, they
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: ran the ball, They dominated at the line of scrimmage.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: What I will say about the Eagles if we're comping
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: to last night, is that there are a couple of
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: times where Quentin Johnston couldn't make the play. AJ Brown
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: will make that play against a relatively weak Ravens secondary.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: This was my other choice for executive decision, playing the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: Eagles plus three.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the move here though, is just if
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: you're going to take the Eagles, I think the money
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: lines a move, not the plus three. And if you're
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: taking the Ravens, obviously shop round you can find maybe
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: still find that two and a half. But that's decided
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: to be on with this Ravens team is you know
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: what is Lamar twenty one to one straight up against NFC.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: He's just dominated where it's like, you know, even when
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: it doesn't make sense and you're like, Okay, the Ravens
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: aren't as good as they've been in previous years. We
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: expected to take a step back. They just haven't. I mean,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: he when he is going offensively, Lamar is just he's
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: an MVP level players. So the hesitation here for me
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: is just this Eagles team, like we just said, they
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: are very young on the defense, This is a type
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: of quarterback that would give them problems, would give them issues.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: They win this, I mean them in Detroit, you might
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: as well pencil in for the NFC Championship game. I
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: mean it would be all time smoke blown up their
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: ass if they can pull this one off. So I
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: get that perspective. I wanted to be on the Eagles
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: as well. But it's the Lamar the two and a
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: half where I'm having Paul's just because of that stat
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: from Van where it's like if you get him under
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: three is a favorite, stop overthinking it. You just take it.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: And even last night I was kicking myself where it's like,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: why did I overthink this and take that Chargers team?
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: You had the Mark two and a half. You just
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: take it, you don't think about it. He's just he's
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: a cash cow in this exact spot. But this Eagles
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: team is good enough. We just talked about, like offensively defensively,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: they can beat this team. They can keep up with points.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: So to me, that's I'm not here for pushes. I'd
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: rather take the Eagles money line had them win this
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: game out right in a late field goal.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills are seven point favorites over the San
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers. You have the wise guys betting
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: on the Bills here. I just thought the number was moving.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: The numbers moved up. I thought it was moving because
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: we still don't know about brock Purty. We don't know
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: about Nick Bosa, we don't know about Trent Williams. Like,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: why why would we play the Niners in this spot?
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily feel great playing the Bills until I
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: know about brock Purty.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the pros of the Bills. And when
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: I like about the Bills here is just the fact
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: that they're one of the best running teams in football
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: against fogn Iris team that just can't stop the run.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, they clearly have some issues right now defensively,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: and the biggest one is the run. Like last year,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: you know they could kind of cover it up because
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: they had such a good D line. They're just not
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: the same D line this season, and we've kind of
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: seen that pop up where it's like, you know, last
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: year they would have leads and they could wear teams
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: out and they were had fresh legs. Defensively, they don't
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: have that, Like their defense is gonna be out there
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: a lot, they're gonna be worn down. And this Bills team,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: they're just so good. We've seen Josh Allen is a
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: big favorite at home. He just dominates teams like this
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: in this exact spot. So, yeah, prime time Sunday night game,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: it really is Josh Allen versus the backup quarterback of
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I might have to bully chat
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: and putting this one the contest at six and a half,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: it's like, come on, that's an insane, insane number to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: get right now in this Bills team at home in
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: this spot against a foreign irison, like we just said,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: they might be once again without Perty and Bosa in
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: this matchup against the MVP of football right now and Josh,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: So it's a good matchup.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: For the I would have no problem with the Bills
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: at six and a half in the contest without Purty,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: like we were comfortable with the Packers. That's what the
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: number landed at for the Packers. Almost that he got
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: up there and like the Bills are better than the Packers.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, and this, you know, so I don't know
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: a problem with that at all. But the Monday night
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: game Denver is a five and a half point favor
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: over Cleveland. Look, I have an overwhelming urge to fade
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Jamis because he played well in back to back games
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: straight up off a win. He's thirteen seventeen and two
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Yea one in five against the spread
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one, Thank you, Evan. It is also
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: a great urge to fade bo Nicks and the speaking Broncos.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: But I think my urge to fade Jamis is greater
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: because aren't the Broncos kind of like the Lions in
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: some respects? Like what we love about the Lions. They
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: are super physical, they don't make mistakes, they have great coaching.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: You know what. The Broncos are first in past block
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: win rate, meaning they're super fast at hedding off the
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: ball and protecting the passer. Their fifth in run block
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: win rate, same third in pass rush win rate, meaning
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: their defensive linemen get off the ball and get an
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: edge faster than the players they are playing against, they
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: don't make mistakes. Bo Nicks has two interceptions since September fifteenth,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: and they have great coaching. So why don't I love
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: the Broncos here?
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's just because the number, right, we like?
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. When I first saw this, I
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: felt it felt a little high. I'll be honest, It's like,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: why is this not three and a half?
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: Four?
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: But I feel like you just broke it down. Why
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: it's not why it is closer to six? Because of
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: this Denver defense and because the way Bonux has been playing.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: And yeah that I didn't know those James stats. That's
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: insane how bad he's been after wins. So yeah, I
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: was I was kind of like you, I really haven't
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: had a read on this one. I haven't done much
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: with it. I feel like now I'm gonna be end
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: up on Denver. Like You're right, this is a nice
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: spot for Denver, not just defensively but offensively. I think
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: they'll be able to move the ball as well. So yeah,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: gim me Denver minus five and a half.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: I love Denver here. Love it feels like a great spot,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: all right. Boosted money line underdog parlay each week, we
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: give out a two team moneyline dog parlay. Bet three
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: six five boosts the odds and highlights it on their
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: site all weekend under both games. Remember, both games are
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: eligible for Bet three six fives to early payout promo,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: where your money line pick gets marked as a win
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: if that team takes a seventeen point lead, even if
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: they lose. If you want to bet this, better to
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay the New
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad you say
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: if you like the Eagles, take them on the money line,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: because I sort of mentioned I wanted to take the Eagles,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: but I never got a reaction from you, so I
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: didn't know if you were going to come after me.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Currently boosted from plus three seventy two to plus four
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: forty act now before the price is change. Find the
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: boost under both the New York Jets and Philadephia Eagles game
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: pages our money line underdog Around Robin, we've talked about
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: a couple of them.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: There will come up pay day, Hallado, Yo wanna pay day?
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: There will come up pay day someday.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: Someday, there will come up heayday Halla Loo, Yo, wanna
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: pay Day?
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 5: I will come up Payday.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Someday, Jacksonville. I would say, Philly Simon, Yeah, I would
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: say the Jets obviously, I would throw in Tennessee.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, last leg. Are we allowed to put the Giants
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: in or now?
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah? We can do whatever we want.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: Oh, I don't know if you want to do strictly
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: Sunday because you said earlier.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: No, I want to do strictly Sunday just for the
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: boost of LA. But let's do the Giant.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean I'm looking at right now live
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: in the action app. We've seen the four disappear. It's
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: going down to three and a half of most books.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: So wow, seems like the professional money is coming in
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: on that Giant side. And now as we're talking about
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: a live so yeah, let's let's let's get a let's
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: get the dog in there for Thanksgiving fun.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: All right, Jacksonville, Tennessee. Jets, Eagles and Giants for the underdog.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: Thank Eagles are in there. What a what an ugly
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: list that is?
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's terrible. Uh, it's only Tuesday. I
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: know you've been sort of running around for the past
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: forty eight hours. Any biggest bets yet.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: Uh honestly only because of Thanksgiving. I've been a little
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: Joe public on where I've really put a lot of
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: my money early on here into this Thanksgiving slate. So
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: uh yeah, the no doubt the biggest bet for me
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: so far as green Bay minus three, like that one
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: I've just as soon as I number went to three,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: It's like, when I got this call, that's what I'm
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: about to go do. It's just go camer that number
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: at the books where they move it back up. And yeah,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: obviously it's it's born in Chalky. But if you're if
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: you're just someone that just likes doing the money line
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: parlays Green Bay Packers money line with Detroit's money line,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: I think it's like minus one ten minus one fifteen
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: partly together. That's fun. It's like I kind of I
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: kind of like that if if you're scared off by
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: the big number of Detroit. Obviously I'm not. So if
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: I'm I've made personally I'm a crazy person. I just
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: parlayed the minus three with the minus ten. So do
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: whatever you want, people, But if you if you you
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: far are scared about that big number, there are ways
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: around that Detroit Lines minus ten.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Scoot throughlet when all hope is lost, all this left
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: is relief.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Let's play scoot Roulette.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the Denver Broncos.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Wow, there we go.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, how about you, I'll fuck it.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: I'll go chalk with no No. I gotta I gotta win, man,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: I've been slipping. Give me Green Bay minus three.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: Wow, Green Bay. Okay.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: I was honestly to go to the Bills, but I
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: don't want to take the risk of taking that bad
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: number at seven.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: of Research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan, don't
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: make us sad. The last word with Evan Abrams, we're.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: Finished talking Happy Thanksgiving boys, and all thirty two teams
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: in action. So we've got a lot to go through here,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: so let me just pound through this. NFL underdogs is
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: six plus points, are thirty six, twenty three and two
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: against the spread this season. They are actually nineteen and
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: forty three on the money line. You'd be up a
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: sixteen percent return on investment betting those dogs. Those nineteen
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: wins through a twelve weeks is the most in the
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: NFL since two thousand and four. So big dogs barking,
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: and we're going to go the opposite here because it
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: is Thanksgiving. All three home teams right now are the
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: public side on Thursday and even oh actually no, the
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: Raiders are on Friday. So all Thursday public sides are
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: five hundred. Ats are better every year since twenty fourteen
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: and eleven of the past twelve years on Thanksgiving, and
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: at that seventy four percent threshold, they are nine to
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: zero straight up and against the spread in the bet
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: Labs database, So keep an eye on those bet percentages.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: Now let's go into a few of these games. So
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: the Bears are in a very unique spot. It is
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: very rare to have an overtime game on Sunday and
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: have to play on Thursday, especially the fact that they're
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: going to have to play at noon. Last twenty years,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: teams to play off an overtime game and then play
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: on three days rest or less six and twenty straight up,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: three and twenty three against the spread. Absolutely terrible numbers,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: really difficult to overcome. So see if they can cover
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: the ten on Thanksgiving. Love that stat, Evan, love it crazy.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: So now let's talk specifics here. So favorites in night
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: games on Thanksgiving, which would be the Packers on Thanksgiving
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: this year thirteen and four against the spread since they
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: started the three game holidays six and Simon alluded to
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: this earlier thirty two temperature or colder freezing temperatures in
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: franchise history. Dolphins are eleven and twenty eight straight up.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: They've lost their last nine games in those cold temperatures.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: Ryan Tannehill beat the Steelers in twenty thirteen, is their
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: last win in freezing tempts. Two more for you as
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: a favorite of six points or more. The Chiefs this
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: year six and oh straight up, five and one against
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: the spread in those games. The fact that Kansas City
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: is undefeated straight up and defeated against the spread as
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: a six plus point favorite. Only one team has even
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: played six plus games in that spot. In the first
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: eleven weeks, it had no covers, the ninety seven Packers.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: It has been a long long time, an extremely unique spot.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: I actually looked this one up and I'm going to
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: talk Sunday games here because it is the biggest game
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: of the weekend Baltimore and Philly, and this situation actually
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: happened last night with Jim Harbaugh. But Nick Siriani has
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: never faced Lamar Jackson before, and Lamar Jackson's ninety five
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: career starts he has faced a coach for the first
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: time forty four times. He is thirty seven and seven
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: straight up against those coaches the first time he faces them.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: A very difficult situation with Baltimore. See if it happens
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: again next week. And then finally, I'll leave you with
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: a Thanksgiving note And I looked this up earlier. Insane.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: So the Lions and Cowboys play every year on Thanksgiving.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: They haven't gone two and oh straight up and two
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: and oh against the spread as a group since nineteen
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: ninety four, so we will see if they can continue
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: that streak and one of the teams somehow fails as
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: they always tend to do.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Wow, I think we believe the Lions will win straight
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: up in against the spread and the Cowboys could lose
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: and lose against the spread. Evan, great work. We are
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: thankful for you, your deep base of knowledge, your big,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: beautiful brain. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is
• 1:14:00
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• 1:14:43
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• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: to recap our NFL week thirteen picks. We do have
• 1:14:51
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• 1:15:13
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