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The Certainty of Uncertainty · Suze Orman's Women & Money (And Everyone Smart Enough To Listen)

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  Suze: October 12, 2025. Welcome everybody to the Women and Money podcast,
• 0:13
  Suze: as well as everybody smart enough to listen. Today is
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  Suze: Suze School, so get out those notebooks.
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  Suze: Are you ready?
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  Suze: Today Suze School is titled "The Certainty of Uncertainty."
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  Suze: Because the stock market, the stock market doesn't hate anything
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  Suze: more than uncertainty.
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  Suze: If there is uncertainty in the air, that's when the
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  Suze: markets start to go down. And why is that? I
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  Suze: want you right now to think about your own life
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  Suze: when you're really uncertain about something.
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  Suze: You're either afraid or it's just you're just uncertain about
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  Suze: what's gonna happen, you know, should you do this? Should
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  Suze: you do that? You tend to do nothing or,
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  Suze: let's say you're uncertain. Is it going to rain? Is
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  Suze: it not? You stay in the house.
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  Suze: You protect yourself when you are uncertain. So why does
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  Suze: that affect the stock market? 'Cause you, whether you know
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  Suze: it or not, you are the stock market. I know
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  Suze: you think the stock market is made up of shares,
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  Suze: shares of stock in companies, either individual shares or bundled
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  Suze: as mutual funds, ETFs, whatever it may be.
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  Suze: But what you have to understand is it is you, me, KT.
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  Suze: It is people that buy and sell those shares just
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  Suze: that simple. And when you get uncertain about anything or
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  Suze: you see something that upsets you when you're like, Oh
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  Suze: my God, here we go again. I'm uncertain of the outcome.
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  Suze: I'm uncertain of how this is going to affect me.
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  Suze: What do you do? You will tend to sell.
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  Suze: Especially if the markets are ticking down, especially, listen to
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  Suze: me closely, if you have incredible gains in some of
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  Suze: your stocks.
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  Suze: Incredible gains 100%, 200% gains in stocks that so many
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  Suze: people want you to be afraid of because why? We're
• 2:33
  Suze: in an AI bubble. They want these stocks to go down.
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  Suze: Why do I personally think they want these stocks to
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  Suze: go down? Because they missed it. And who is they?
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  Suze: Many of the institutional investors, many of the big traders,
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  Suze: they missed it.
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  Suze: So if they can get everything to start to go down,
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  Suze: they get to do what? They get to go in
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  Suze: and buy it again at a lot lower price.
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  Suze: However,
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  Suze: when you hear things like that, because I'm getting emails
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  Suze: from all of you going, Suze, do you think we
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  Suze: are in an AI bubble? I keep saying no, I don't.
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  Suze: Do you think, Suze, we're going to have a stock
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  Suze: market crash like we did back in 2007, 2008, 2009? No,
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  Suze: I don't.
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  Suze: The situations are so different today than they were back then,
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  Suze: so different.
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  Suze: Today many of these companies are creating the future of
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  Suze: the unknown.
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  Suze: The future that we don't even have an ability to
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  Suze: comprehend what's going to happen but it's a coming and
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  Suze: we all want to be a part of it but
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  Suze: we're afraid to be a part of it because in
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  Suze: our limited minds, in my opinion...
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  Suze: You made so much money we can't possibly make more.
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  Suze: It can't possibly go higher.
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  Suze: You have to get a grip on the reality of
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  Suze: the future, because as I've said to you before, the
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  Suze: future isn't the future, the future is now. It's already happening,
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  Suze: and I personally want you to be a part of it. However,
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  Suze: there are powers that be that will offset the track
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  Suze: of the markets by inserting uncertainty in many different ways,
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  Suze: and there is so much uncertainty going on right now
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  Suze: it's not even funny.
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  Suze: The truth of the matter is Friday morning markets opened up.
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  Suze: Everything was kind of good.
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  Suze: No problems.
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  Suze: Until President Trump came out and he made an announcement of, well,
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  Suze: I guess there's not going to be a reason for
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  Suze: me to have to go meet with the President of China.
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  Suze: In fact, I think I'm going to put tariffs back
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  Suze: on China. And why did he get mad at China?
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  Suze: Because China decided that importers, people who imported it into
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  Suze: the United States, needed to get a license from Beijing,
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  Suze: that contained anything that had to do with real rare
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  Suze: earth elements that were more than like 0.1% or more
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  Suze: of the value of the whole thing.
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  Suze: Which means that those companies like Nvidia that use rare
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  Suze: earth materials to manufacture what they make.
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  Suze: It's gonna cost them more.
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  Suze: Or they're going to have to get a license to
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  Suze: do so.
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  Suze: And Trump retaliated. And as soon as that happened,
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  Suze: bam, these markets started to go down and down. And
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  Suze: once like a snowball, it starts to roll down the
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  Suze: hill and it gets bigger and bigger. It gathers up
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  Suze: all the other snow, the unexpecting snow that's so beautiful
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  Suze: and so white, it just comes along for a ride.
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  Suze: That's what the majority of you did out there, causing
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  Suze: these markets to go down considerably. However,
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  Suze: did they really go down that much overall? Well, that
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  Suze: depends on what you were invested in.
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  Suze: Now, I want you to put a pin in that
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  Suze: for a second because the overall advice that all of
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  Suze: you have been given is you need diversification, absolutely.
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  Suze: And I've said this before, maybe you need 50% of
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  Suze: your money in something like VOO, which is Vanguard, Standard
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  Suze: and Poor's 500, or the SPY or VTI, the Vanguard
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  Suze: Total Stock Market Index Fund, or whatever it is that
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  Suze: you're invested in, and then if you want.
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  Suze: Other types of investments in individual things such as the
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  Suze: AI stocks, but that would give you a total balanced approach. OK,
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  Suze: so let me give you an example now,
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  Suze: of really what happened on Friday.
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  Suze: The Dow Jones Industrial Average went down 878 points, but
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  Suze: that was only 1.90%.
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  Suze: Not that big of a deal.
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  Suze: The Standard and Poor's went down 182 points or only 2.71%.
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  Suze: And the Nasdaq, which contains a lot of our favorite stocks,
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  Suze: went down 820 points, but again, only 3.56%. OK.
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  Suze: Now what's important when you look at numbers, that you
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  Suze: look at percentages more than you look at the actual
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  Suze: dollar number that it went down.
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  Suze: Or the numeric number that it went down because you
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  Suze: could look at the screen on your TV and you
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  Suze: could see oh my God, the Dow went down 878
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  Suze: points and the Nasdaq went down 820 and the Standard
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  Suze: and Poor's went down 182. It crashed. It didn't crash. 1.90%, 2.71%, 3.56%
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  Suze: is not a crash, everybody.
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  Suze: Do you understand that?
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  Suze: Now let's just look at
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  Suze: ETFs and really what did they do? Did they follow
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  Suze: the Standard and Poor's 500 Index? And in fact they did.
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  Suze: The index itself was down 2.71%, so your VOO finished
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  Suze: on Friday down 2.69%. Spiders SPY finished down 2.70%.
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  Suze: The VTI finished down 2.68%.
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  Suze: And if you happen to have the SPYD, which is
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  Suze: the dividend spiders, 1.80%, not a big deal.
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  Suze: However, now we start to get more specialized and we
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  Suze: look at SMH as well as QQQ. That's where our
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  Suze: technology stocks, especially SMH Semiconductors, yeah, finished down 5.76%.
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  Suze: And the QQQs finished down 3.47%. OK, now let's look
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  Suze: at the decline of some of our absolute favorite stocks.
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  Suze: Nvidia down about 4.5%, AMD down 8%, but after a
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  Suze: tremendous run truthfully, Tesla down 5%, IONQ down 8.84%, Palantir
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  Suze: down 5.40, Microsoft down 2.19%.
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  Suze: They were down, but if you look at what they
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  Suze: were down, they're down almost the same amount as SMH
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  Suze: was down.
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  Suze: And again those stocks, a lot of them got hit.
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  Suze: Because of talk of tariffs, rare earth metals, things like that,
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  Suze: that they all need.
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  Suze: However, what was also interesting is that gold went to
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  Suze: about 4,029.
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  Suze: Bitcoin did not hold where I told you if you
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  Suze: are on my Women and Money community app that I wanted
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  Suze: to see if it would hold at 123 or so
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  Suze: this last Friday. It did not. It closed at about 116,
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  Suze: although it's never really closed, so I wouldn't be surprised
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  Suze: if I saw it go down to 108, which is
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  Suze: its support level.
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  Suze: But not a big deal. IBIT, which is Bitcoin ETF,
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  Suze: went down 3.70%. Oil, which I just haven't liked, and
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  Suze: I've said that before, was about 58. What went up,
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  Suze: happened to be the price of bonds, which means their
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  Suze: interest rates absolutely went down. So a one year now
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  Suze: is only at about 3.6%. The 10 year was at
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  Suze: about 4%. So depending what continues to happen, we just
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  Suze: might see mortgages down where we wanted them because it
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  Suze: looks like it could be going down there.
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  Suze: But none of this, none of this is everything crash. Now,
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  Suze: could it continue to go down? Oh, you betcha it could.
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  Suze: You have to understand that many of the people, big traders,
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  Suze: all kinds of things that go on on Wall Street
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  Suze: would like these markets to go down and down.
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  Suze: So they could pick up more. I mean, there's all
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  Suze: kinds of complicated ways of explaining how trading works and
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  Suze: it doesn't work, but here is the real bottom line.
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  Suze: Just like I said back many months ago, don't panic.
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  Suze: You are not to panic.
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  Suze: And you are really not to panic if it continues
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  Suze: to go down even more. That is why you dollar
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  Suze: cost average. That is why you take advantage of times
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  Suze: like this, but you don't have to do it tomorrow.
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  Suze: You could take it and you could put it in an
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  Suze: order 10% below the market, 20% below the market, whatever
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  Suze: it may be, and I've told you this time and
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  Suze: time again.
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  Suze: So if it dips more, so you pick it up.
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  Suze: Maybe it goes down very quickly for a second and
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  Suze: then bounces up, or you can just wait and see.
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  Suze: For me, what am I personally doing? I'm not doing anything.
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  Suze: Remember how a while ago I told you I thought
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  Suze: that I had enough IONQ. I had enough Palantir, and
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  Suze: even though I was tempted to buy more on Friday,
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  Suze: seriously tempted.
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  Suze: That would make my positions in those two stocks way
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  Suze: too heavy for my portfolio. I have a considerable amount
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  Suze: of money in those two stocks, and if I continued
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  Suze: to add to it, it would not be wise, even
• 13:48
  Suze: though it was the hardest thing for me to do,
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  Suze: not to add more shares. I like where I am positioned.
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  Suze: I'm happy where everything is and I don't need to
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  Suze: get greedy.
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  Suze: I don't need to sell out of fear, and I
• 14:06
  Suze: don't need to buy out of greed. It's just that simple.
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  Suze: So you have to look at your own portfolio, at
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  Suze: your own situation, at your own timing.
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  Suze: And you need to decide what is it that you
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  Suze: want to do. Now, with that said,
• 14:25
  Suze: the tariff possibility,
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  Suze: and all these AI companies really having significant exposure to
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  Suze: China in both manufacturing and they're a large customer, by
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  Suze: the way. So, all right, legitimate reason to figure out
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  Suze: what's going to really happen here.
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  Suze: But that's not the only thing that's going on.
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  Suze: So on Friday, what else was going on that really
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  Suze: in my opinion spooked the market? What spooked them was
• 14:58
  Suze: that we were still in,
• 15:01
  Suze: the uncertainty of what is going to happen with the
• 15:05
  Suze: federal government.
• 15:07
  Suze: And the federal government really does have a major effect
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  Suze: on everybody. On Friday, it was its tenth day that
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  Suze: it was still shut down.
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  Suze: But what's really affecting people more in my opinion than
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  Suze: even it being shut down now all of a sudden
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  Suze: the news is out that layoffs of federal workers are
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  Suze: actually happening, not only for the furlough workers that are
• 15:37
  Suze: they going to get back pay or are they not.
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  Suze: But now actual layoffs are starting to be implemented and
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  Suze: that affects everything all the way down the road. It
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  Suze: really does, you know, sometimes we think, oh well, this
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  Suze: doesn't really affect me.
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  Suze: I don't work for the federal government. Everything today affects
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  Suze: every single one of us, and when you see that
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  Suze: they're still arguing, they can't come to a decision, who
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  Suze: knows how long it will last.
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  Suze: And you combine that now with tariffs again and all
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  Suze: of a sudden the two most powerful political figures in
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  Suze: the world not getting along,
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  Suze: the President of China, the President of the United States.
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  Suze: It affects you and what affects you affects the stock
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  Suze: market because you are the stock market.
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  Suze: And that's what's going on.
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  Suze: So what can you do about it?
• 16:40
  Suze: As Iyanla Vanzant, remember her? She used to be on Oprah
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  Suze: and she had that show Fix My Life. She is a
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  Suze: very dear friend of mine, she would always say, Take
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  Suze: a breath. Just take a breath, everybody. So can we
• 16:51
  Suze: just do that all together right now?
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  Suze: Take a breath.
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  Suze: And just know that you were not in the stock
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  Suze: market for a day or a month or a year.
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  Suze: Didn't we have an agreement that you were going to
• 17:10
  Suze: be investing for at least five years or longer?
• 17:15
  Suze: So if something goes down, let it go down.
• 17:19
  Suze: Will it come back up if it's good quality stocks,
• 17:23
  Suze: it is going to come back, and it might come
• 17:26
  Suze: back a lot faster than you have any idea. So
• 17:31
  Suze: do yourself a favor and just stop looking. If you
• 17:35
  Suze: don't have the money to dollar cost average more into
• 17:39
  Suze: these markets, you invested everything, good, just stop looking.
• 17:45
  Suze: Ask yourself the question, is what I have my money
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  Suze: invested in.
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  Suze: Is it diversified? Are you doing the strategy where maybe 50%
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  Suze: of your money is in VOO or the Standard and Poor's
• 17:57
  Suze: 500 index somewhere and the rest in individual stocks that
• 18:02
  Suze: you really like?
• 18:05
  Suze: If that's true, or all of your money, for instance,
• 18:09
  Suze: is in voo,
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  Suze: then just do that. If you're invested properly, you will
• 18:17
  Suze: be OK.
• 18:20
  Suze: So, the real problem is not is the stock market
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  Suze: going up or down and what are you going to
• 18:27
  Suze: do and things like that.
• 18:30
  Suze: It's what are the people going to do who work
• 18:32
  Suze: for the federal government who have now just lost their
• 18:36
  Suze: jobs or people who haven't been told they've lost their
• 18:41
  Suze: jobs but they're on furlough and who knows if they're
• 18:44
  Suze: going to get back pay or not? What are they
• 18:47
  Suze: going to do? And the question becomes do they take
• 18:53
  Suze: money out of their TSP or their Roth IRAs? What
• 18:58
  Suze: do they do?
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  Suze: And here's just something I want to say to everybody.
• 19:05
  Suze: You know, and I know when you have a 401k
• 19:08
  Suze: or a TSP or a 403B, you can take a
• 19:12
  Suze: loan from that retirement account.
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  Suze: And therefore use it for whatever you want.
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  Suze: And pay it back over a 5 year period of
• 19:24
  Suze: time in most cases. Please be very careful if you're
• 19:29
  Suze: on furlough right now and you don't know if you're
• 19:32
  Suze: going to get back pay or not.
• 19:35
  Suze: And especially if you think you're going to lose your job,
• 19:41
  Suze: do not take money via a loan from a TSP
• 19:46
  Suze: or any retirement plan like that, that you may happen
• 19:49
  Suze: to have, because if you lose your job.
• 19:54
  Suze: That money that you took out will be taxed to
• 19:57
  Suze: you as ordinary income.
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  Suze: This year, in fact, if it is this year that
• 20:03
  Suze: you took the money out and you will get a 10%
• 20:06
  Suze: penalty on it if you are not at least 55
• 20:10
  Suze: years of age or older this year, I said 55.
• 20:14
  Suze: I did not mean to say 59 and a half.
• 20:18
  Suze: Because there is a rule that says if you are
• 20:21
  Suze: 55 or older in the year you've lost your job
• 20:25
  Suze: or leave service, any money that you take from a 401k,
• 20:30
  Suze: a 403B, a TSP, not an IRA, but those three
• 20:36
  Suze: employer sponsored plans, there is no 10% penalty. You are
• 20:43
  Suze: of age, but if you're under that age, you take
• 20:47
  Suze: a loan,
• 20:48
  Suze: now you no longer have a job. That money now
• 20:51
  Suze: will probably be due and payable within a month. It
• 20:54
  Suze: just depends on what they decide. And if you don't
• 20:57
  Suze: have it to pay, you're going to owe ordinary income
• 21:00
  Suze: tax on it and a 10% penalty. But Suze, I
• 21:06
  Suze: don't have any money. I have to do something. Listen
• 21:08
  Suze: to me.
• 21:09
  Suze: Money that is in your employer sponsored plan as well
• 21:13
  Suze: as an IRA, by the way, Roth or traditional in
• 21:18
  Suze: most cases is protected against bankruptcy.
• 21:23
  Suze: If you don't have any money, you cannot pay your bills.
• 21:27
  Suze: It's no fault of your own. You thought you had
• 21:30
  Suze: a solid job and all of a sudden.
• 21:34
  Suze: The government has done all of these shenanigans and now
• 21:37
  Suze: you don't have a job.
• 21:40
  Suze: You may have to claim bankruptcy and therefore you need
• 21:45
  Suze: to protect what you have in a retirement account.
• 21:50
  Suze: I rather you charge up your credit cards to the max.
• 21:54
  Suze: Do whatever you can, but do not, and I repeat,
• 21:59
  Suze: do not touch money that is in your retirement accounts. Now,
• 22:05
  Suze: there may be some of you federal employees that you
• 22:08
  Suze: know
• 22:09
  Suze: you are absolutely going to get back pay. Let's say
• 22:13
  Suze: you're an air traffic controller or whatever it is, and
• 22:16
  Suze: you're not getting pay right now, but you know that
• 22:20
  Suze: they are going to give you back pay because you're
• 22:22
  Suze: absolutely still working.
• 22:25
  Suze: What do you do? If you happen to have a
• 22:28
  Suze: Roth IRA, never forget that you can take out any
• 22:34
  Suze: contributions that you originally put in without taxes or penalties whatsoever,
• 22:40
  Suze: regardless of how long the account has been open or
• 22:43
  Suze: your age. But also don't forget,
• 22:48
  Suze: you can do what's called a Roth IRA roll over,
• 22:53
  Suze: and you can do this with a regular IRA as
• 22:56
  Suze: well where you withdraw money with the intention of putting
• 23:02
  Suze: it back within 60 days.
• 23:06
  Suze: So if... and you can only do this by the way,
• 23:09
  Suze: once every 12 months.
• 23:12
  Suze: Therefore, if you are in a situation, listen closely to
• 23:16
  Suze: me now, and you really need money and you know
• 23:23
  Suze: that as soon as this ends you're going to get
• 23:25
  Suze: this back pay, so then you'll have that money to
• 23:29
  Suze: put back in your Roth or your IRA within that
• 23:34
  Suze: 60 day period.
• 23:36
  Suze: It's something that you may need to take advantage of
• 23:40
  Suze: if there is just no money to pay your bills
• 23:43
  Suze: and you live paycheck to paycheck.
• 23:47
  Suze: But if you do not get that money back within
• 23:50
  Suze: those 60 days, listen to me again with your Roth IRA,
• 23:56
  Suze: you are only to take out that amount which you
• 24:00
  Suze: originally contributed.
• 24:03
  Suze: Because if something happens and you cannot put that money back... OK,
• 24:08
  Suze: it is still your money without taxes or penalties. If
• 24:14
  Suze: it is a traditional IRA.
• 24:17
  Suze: Any money you take out if you do not get
• 24:19
  Suze: it back within 60 days you are going to pay
• 24:24
  Suze: an ordinary income tax on that money plus a 10%
• 24:28
  Suze: penalty if you're not 59 and a half years of age or older.
• 24:32
  Suze: So be very, very careful, everybody. Bottom line, the certainty
• 24:39
  Suze: of uncertainty.
• 24:42
  Suze: And until the uncertainty goes away, you should expect these
• 24:47
  Suze: markets to be absolutely going up, going down, and all
• 24:52
  Suze: over the place, but trust me, the uncertainty will go away.
• 24:57
  Suze: Many of these stocks and our favorite stocks will return.
• 25:03
  Suze: You will be happy that you either kept them or
• 25:05
  Suze: dollar cost averaged into them.
• 25:08
  Suze: And again they could go 10% lower, 20% lower. They
• 25:12
  Suze: can go lower.
• 25:14
  Suze: But they could also go a lot higher over time.
• 25:19
  Suze: All right, so that brings us to the end of
• 25:23
  Suze: this Suze School: The Certainty of Uncertainty. Two things though
• 25:28
  Suze: I do want to talk to you about as well.
• 25:30
  Suze: The one year treasury right now, as I said, is
• 25:33
  Suze: down to about 3.6%. Alliant Credit Union for new money,
• 25:39
  Suze: their one year certificate is at 4.10.
• 25:44
  Suze: For amounts of $75,000 or more, it's at 4.15%, but
• 25:49
  Suze: that is for new money that you put in there. Again,
• 25:55
  Suze: go to myalliant.com and check it out. Also, I want
• 26:01
  Suze: you to support me by subscribing to my YouTube channel
• 26:07
  Suze: so that you can be notified when a new video
• 26:11
  Suze: goes up.
• 26:13
  Suze: So you go to youtube.com/ Suze Orman S U Z
• 26:18
  Suze: E O R M A N and subscribe. Got that?
• 26:23
  Suze: So until Thursday when Miss Travis joins me again, can
• 26:27
  Suze: you believe I'm even lonely for her today? I better
• 26:30
  Suze: go find out what she's doing. There's only one thing
• 26:32
  Suze: that I want you to remember when it comes to
• 26:34
  Suze: your money, and it is this: Be certain people.
• 26:39
  Suze: Be certain about what you do and don't let others'
• 26:44
  Suze: uncertainty get you off the track. Remember the certainty of uncertainty.
• 26:52
  Suze: So people first be certain about your money. Then you
• 26:56
  Suze: can invest your money wisely, and then in the end,
• 27:00
  Suze: you'll have money to buy things, hopefully things that you need.
• 27:05
  Suze: All right, until then, stay safe, secure, and healthy. Bye
• 27:10
  Suze: bye now.