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Mets/Tigers MLB + WNBA Best Bets Tuesday 9/2/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all all
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my Broins hack. Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows?
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know what day it is anymore. I
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: don't even know what day it is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: have with you, as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: at least oh and two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: it's towed back with you better off dead, which I
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: definitely am. Tuesday, September two, it was not a good
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: start to September. I feel like we don't start any
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: month on the right foot for the most part, except
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: January we did with the Ohio State.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Rose Bowl win. But uh yeah, yesterday I owned too
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: on the show. Both those unders. I mean, it wasn't
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: even close, man, So I apologize. What can you do
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: about him? Yeah, we just move on from it.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: The Mets and Detroit, which I'm going right back to
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: the well today, what.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Do you know? Almost? And then yeah, that one was.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Just over right away. Both starting pitchers did not have
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: it yesterday. And then the A's Saint Louis first five
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: inning under. If you got the under four on the
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: first five innings, it would have been a push for
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: you on that one. At least the bullpen's actually surprising.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: I think it was Saint Louis's bullpen that actually did
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: terribly yesterday, which is not what you would have expected
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: if one of those bullpens were to be the one
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: to do bad. Whatever, we move on for college football.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: My analysis on the college football.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Game is right.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: I told you leaned TCU over and TCU over their
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: team total.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that happened. Bill Belichick not up to a good.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Start with UNC there, which I mean, I don't think
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: they're gonna continue to be that bad.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But that was man, that was crazy and I just
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: had to laugh at. We move on to today. Man,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: we basically just have baseball. We have a little bit
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: of WNBA.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have two baseball plays again today, just like yesterday.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Don't love the card. We have a couple of teams
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: that are actually off today. Kind of a rare Tuesday
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: off situation, I guess we have. I think Milwaukee and
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the Phillies are not playing today for some reason. I'm
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: not really sure why the scheduling is like that, but
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: I'm not really gonna question it. WNBA, we got two
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: games and I still do not have a play. Unfortunately
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: for our guy Alex who was in here, a couple
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: of days ago, we wanted more WNBA stuff. I mean,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna force anything in the WNBA. We do
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: have New York at Golden State.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Both these teams are gonna.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Need to show up, man. I mean both these games
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: are ten pm too. We have two Pacific Coast games tonight.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I think Golden State on a three game win streak.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: They did just beat Indiana, but without Clark, without Cunningham,
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Golden State above five hundred, fighting to make a playoff spots.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: They definitely have something to play for here. They have
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: the Liberty coming into their house. They got some momentum.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: They should show up.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: In this game.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: The Liberty are coming off an ugly loss at Phoenix
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: to start the road trip, so you got to think
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: they're going to be focused too. I mean, they're playing
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: to try to improve their seeding. They don't really want
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: to fall that far behind Atlanta here. The Liberty, in
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: my opinion, I think they're probably still the better team.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've been dealing with some injuries, so when
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: they're fully healthy, I think they are the better team.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: And I think they do have most of their players
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: back here. But that was a really bad game against Phoenix,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: So I think they probably show up and bounce back
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: to a very difficult game to figure out Liberty in
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Lank six and a half with a little bit less juice.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Now on the road, might have a slight lean to
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: the home underdog there, just because that's kind of what
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: I do. And they have a little bit more desperation.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: I guess you could say Golden State trying to make
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: the playoffs and Indiana at Phoenix. Indiana has desperation. They're
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: still without Caitlin Clark. She might be back for the playoffs,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: assuming they even make the playoffs, which they're on track
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: to be one of the last teams to make the
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: playoffs here, which you got to think that the league
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: might want them to, even though I know Caitlin Clark
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: gets basically abused by other players and the league seems
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: to not like her, but like the league has to
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: know that she is their most popular player. Indiana coming
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: off that lost to Golden State, like I said, is
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: a third straight road game, though though they do have
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: at least one day off in between these two.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I think they show up focus here, man.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're again playing almost for their playoff lives
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: at this point. To make sure they make the playoffs. Here,
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Phoenix on a nice role right now, four straight wins,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: but they do just blast the New York Liberty at home.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: That was a huge win for Phoenix. Phoenix is obviously
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: more safe right now. They're gonna make the playoffs, even
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: though of course they would like to improve their seeding
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: if possible.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: But again, I think the situation.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Is more urgent for Indiana here in Phoenix coming up
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: that huge win over the Liberty might be in a
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: little bit less great of a spot here, So I
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: would lean to Indiana plus the points the love Phoenix
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: is now up from six and a half, I have
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: to seven with juice, man, let me go figure. I mean, yes,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: Indiana is without Clark, and of course without Cunningham. Clark
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: may come back, like I said, at some point, but
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: not tonight. So again, do with that information what you
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: want to Major League Baseball. I have some leans and
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: I have two plays that I'm gonna give out here.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Let's call it the breakdown this time. Man, we're crying.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: It's the breakdown. That's basically me right now. I mean,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: I've been on such a bad run, man, I mean
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: swarts gambling, I mean it's up and down for sure,
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: like you have bad runs.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: But man, last.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Year was one was my first losing year since twenty fifteen,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: and now you know, jobless. I'm trying to bridge the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: gap here and not be as risky with my money here.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: So I haven't actually been betting these on. I'm giving
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: out the plays as if I were betting them. It's
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: exactly what I would bet if I was doing it.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: I know it's been a bad run over the last week,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: week and a half too, after I was hot for
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: a while and base ball. Baseball usually one of my
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: best sports man, but it has not been this season.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: So might be headed for two straight losing years in
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: a row by my tally, which is not great, especially
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: this year. I've only had I think, well, I think
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: I've had three losing months so far this year, which
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: I guess isn't that great throughout the eight but still
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: more winning than losing. But March was just so bad
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: that it almost tanked the entire year. It was unbelievable.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about baseball, man. We have the Dodgers at
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: the Pirates here La at Pittsburgh. Both these teams are
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: actually off yesterday, so we have rested bullpens here. I
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: don't think either bullpen is that good. The Pirates bullpen
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: is actually probably the better of the two. They are
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: right here slightly based on bullpen e Ra. Pittsburgh is
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip, and you know, I
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: always say when a team returns home from a road
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: trip tends to be a little bit of a difficult spot.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: You can get distracted by having a return to home life,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: especially if you're a bad team like Pittsburgh and you
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: just kind of had a success road trip for the
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: most part. One on the road trip had one more
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: win than loss. Pittsburgh not a good road team, though
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: they're actually better at home, although a lot of teams are,
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: but Pittsburgh's particularly bad on the road. So that was
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: particularly a particularly decent accomplishment that they actually won that
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: road trip. But yeah, a team of running over road
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: trip can be distracted, especially a bad team like Pittsburgh
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: that has nothing really left to play for the Dodgers obviously,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: they are playing still to try to win their division,
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: making sure they make the playoffs, et cetera. But I mean,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: it is the Dodgers coming into your place, so Pittsburgh
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: may not totally overlook the mirror. I mean, this is
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: one of the type of games that I think a
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: team that's out of it would still get up for.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, you got the Dodgers coming into your place, man.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Dodgers obviously have a huge offensive advantage in this game, though.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh one of the worst offenses in all baseball, the
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: worst probably, and LA one of the top offenses.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Probably got to give LA.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: The starting pitching edge here as well, with Clayton Kershaw
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: on the mound, But of course he's gonna have a
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: lot of weight behind his name because he's a.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Future Hall of Fame pitcher. But he's pitching well this
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: season too.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: He's found his way, man, even though I think his
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: like stuff is not as good as it once was.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: That excuse me at his old age here.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Three point zero six ERA, one point one to five
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: WHIP On the season, he's been better on the road
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: two point six eighty RA This month, he's allowed one
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs and all but one start, which
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: was at Course Field where he allowed three earned runs
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: in that one, he's picked up a win in all
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: five starts.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So he's definitely a good form right now.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: One point eight eighty ra nineteen to three strike out
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: walker race here this month, so he's hardly putting anybody
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: on base, allowing few hits as well. His strike got
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: right is down, like I said, as an older man here,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: but he's still finding a way to pitch, you know,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: with less good stuff at this point. Up against the
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Pirates again, very weak offense. They don't even have
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of history against him. Well, they don't
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of batter so faced him before, and
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh actually I think they dfa'd Kiner Filefa and Toronto
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: just picked him up. So some interesting stuff going on here.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Man. Teams that are in the running trying.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: To bolster their rosters here, especially with the September roster expansions,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: definitely makes sense to be picking some of those guys
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: up Kershaw. Again, only four Pirates citters have ever faced him.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: They do have seventy four at bats off them, though,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: but nineteen strikeouts, five walks, two thirty average six ZHO,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: three ops. So he has done well against Pittsburgh and
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: half of Pittsburgh's lineup won't even be familiar with him,
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: so Kershaw probably should do well.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: In this game.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Molodzinsky Carmen Molodzinsky is listed as a starter for the
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Pirates here. He's basically a converted reliever. Three point eight
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: six CRA this year one point three to whip. The
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: whip is a little bit high. He has better at
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: home two point five six ERA. At home, You're probably
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: not gonna get a ton of innings out of him.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: He's probably gonna go about three innings because that's basically
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: what he has been doing since he's been in the
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: starting rotation. He's pitched well this month, though, with the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: twenty two to six strike out walk ratio over the
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: past month. August, I should say two point four ERA
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: over the past month, so that's all good. When I
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: say this month and it's the beginning of another month,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I mean the previous month. So again, and with rested bullpens,
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: even though I don't really love the bullpens, this game
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: is probably an under. It looks like that's where the
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: money is as well. It's flip from eight and a
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: half juice to the over eight and a half juice
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: to the under fifty tickets on the over eighty one
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash and the under. So the public
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: slightly in favor of the over here. I mean, it's
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: a Dodger game, so that makes sense. But I think
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: the under is the way to look in this game.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Bullpens are rested, so if you want to go full game,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: I mean it kind of makes sense. Starting pitching matchup
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: probably makes sense to get you through.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: But maybe you.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Want to go first five innings on it. Think that's
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: fine as well, because then you'll get Modzinski probably for
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: the majority that and then you only have to deal
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: with pitts versus bullpen for a couple of innings maybe
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: at most. I guess if you do it that way,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: So first five innings under may actually be the best
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: way to play that. That or the full game under
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Mets Detroit. Like I said, I will give out a
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: play on that, and you probably don't even know what
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: it is. Almost Toronto at Cincinnati. I almost gave this
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: one out as a play man. This one is close
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: to being a play for me. I just worry a
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: little bit about it because both these teams can hit
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit. Toronto has the better offense of the two.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: I'd probably give the bullpen edge to Cincinnati, but it's
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: not strong.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: They're both kind of mid mid bullpens.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Cincinnati is slightly better with an ERA slightly under four,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Toronto slightly above four.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen, you sag yesterday.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Yesterday, by the way, Toronto, both teams scored three runs
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: in the ninth inning. I believe, so Toronto took the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: lead with three runs in the ninth inning. I think
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: they were up two after that, and then since retook
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: the lead and won in walkoff fashion.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Just a brutal loss for Toronto yesterday.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I had a lean to Cincinnati in the game yesterday
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: because I liked Hunter Green in the game, and so
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: if you went first five innings with Cincinnati, that would
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: have been a winner. I'm pretty sure they were up
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I believe two to one at that point, or maybe
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: even two to nothing. Reds did not use a lot
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday, so their bullpen rest is a
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: little bit better. They used four relievers, but a couple
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: of them didn't really get tacks.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Toronto did only use three.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: But Toronto actually does not have a lot of guys
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: in their bullpen right now. Toronto's bullpen, they're not looking
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: like they're in good shape for this stretch run, man,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're not a great bullpen, so that bullpen
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: has really faded, so their bullpen is definitely a bit
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: questionable here. Starting pitching in this one. I don't mind
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup here. I mean, like I said,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: I'm I was gonna have a play in this game.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: I was considering having a play in this game, and
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: it would be on the under or maybe the under
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: first five innings. Got to try to think if you
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: want to exclude the bullpens are not here because I
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: don't love the bullpens, so first five innings might make
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: sense here. But Cincinnati, it is a hitter friendly ballpark here.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: But looking at the starting pitching, you got Jose Barrios
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: for the Blue Jays. I mean, he's having a pretty
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: decent season. He's pretty consistent. Three point nine to five ERA,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: one point two six whip not great, but I mean
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: he's solid. He's pretty good on the road, three point
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: four to three road ERA. He's been pretty good this
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: month with an eighteen to five strikeout walk ratio. And
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: I know he has a four point six four ERA,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: which is not good, mostly because he got just kind
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: of hit around by Texas for whatever reason. But the
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: rest of his outis have been pretty good. Besides that,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: he's allowed three or four earned runs and every start
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: going all the way back into July. So this past
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: month again, I should say with the August numbers is
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: what I just gave out there. Brios really good numbers
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: against Cincinnati and fifty nine at bats, fifteen strikeouts, five walks,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: one sixty nine batting average, only one extra base hit,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: a lot of triple by Dale Cruz, one sixty nine
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: average allowed, four point thirty eight ops. So Barrios does
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against Cincinnati. He's going up against Nick Loudolo,
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: who's having a pretty good season for the Reds. Three
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: point two to two ERA, one point zero four whip Uh.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: He's been worse at home though, so that does worry
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: me about the under here four point one ERA at home. Lodolo,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: he basically just came back from a blister. He got
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: a blister on his finger in the Cubs start, which
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: was an abbreviated start for him. They had to take
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: him out because of that, and then he just came back.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: In his last start, he drew a pretty difficult draw.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Having to go to a difficult draw like getting my blood.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: He had to go pitch at LA at the Dodgers.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: He only lasted four and two thirds gave up four
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: and runs, so they did have six strike got some
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: one walk. That was the game that I expected to
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: go under. I don't know if I gave out the
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: under in that game or not. It did go under,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: although Lodolo wasn't great in the game, but his command
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: was pretty good. So I actually think that's a decent
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: sign that Lodolo will be back and form here. I mean,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are a pretty good offense. Toronto's not as
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: good as the Dodgers, though, yes, they are a good offense.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: So Toronto doesn't have a whole lot of experience against Lodolo.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: They only have fourteen at bats against him, four strikeouts,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: one walk, no extra race, HiT's two fourteen average five
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: twenty seven ops. So, man, you know it's tempting should
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: I add this play? A lot of times they get
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: I get caught when I had a play. Man, I'm
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: pretty sure the money is agreeing with an under in
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: this one. I'll let me look at this. We got
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets on the under, ninety three
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: percent of cash on the under, total slightly more juice
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: to the eight and a half to the under. The
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: money is coming in on Toronto as well, Cincinnati down
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: for minus one ten to minus one oh six, sixty
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets on them on Cincinnati's seventy percent
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Toronto. So the public is off
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: of Toronto now, interestingly because they still have the better record. Uh,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: both of these teams obviously have a lot to play
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: for Toronto trying to hang on to their division, Cincinnati
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: trying to even make the playoffs at this point. So
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: both teams should be motivated here, which sometimes can lend
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: itself to more focused.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Pitching as well, kind of like how defense.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: This can kind of show up in other sports when
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: it's a big game like that, interleague games, sometimes there's
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: that unfamiliarity aspect to where you do want to go
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: under as well. You know what, I'm a glutton for punishment, man,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I do like the under in this game.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Man, I'm gonna take a look real quick.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I'm looking to what Action Network has on this scot
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: what's up, man, you know what, Yeah, let's add it.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: It's close. I mean it's an anti public play. It
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: looks like.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Again, I really don't like the bullpens. Though you can't
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: get under nine anymore on the full game, looks like
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: the nine might have been out there very briefly. Of course,
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: nine is a key number in baseball, So if you
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: want to go under full game, I mean, getting the
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: nine would be a lot better. You can find under
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: first five innings four and a half at minus one twenty.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't hate that price.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: If you want to go first five innings under four,
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: you could do that too. I know it's a hitter
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: friendly park, but let's just do it. Let's go first
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: five innings under the four and a half a minus
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: one twenty. So in early play, it's not that is
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: one of the best bets, but it'll be early. I'll
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: mention it again in the best bets segment, but there
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: you go. What's up man, Good morning? It is titty Tuesday, Scott,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: what's up man? So we will go under in that game.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Let's let's not have me do it in this next
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: game up because I like the under in this game too.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: In Cleveland and the Red Sox, and I know I
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: liked it yesterday and it didn't happen. Red Sox got
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: the win yesterday six to three, six to four, whatever,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: it was six to four. Red Sox ddu's Chapman yesterday
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: after he was off for multiple days. But they actually
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: have used him multiple days in a row as well,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: so I guess he could potentially pitch today. He only
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: threw five pitches yesterday. Oh, he actually pitched two days
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: in a row. My mistake, I didn't realize that. I'll
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: be he only threw five pitches yesterday, so I don't know.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have a good bullpen and it's rested.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's bullpen is actually pretty good as well. Their bullpen
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: is fairly rested as well, so not terrible there so
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: this game, I mean, the bullpen situation is all right
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: for an under here. By the way, Toronto Cincinnati, Toronto
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: has the better offense of the two. I should probably
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: throw that out there, because I just throw out everything
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I tried to do.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Man, I throw out who has the bullpen advantage.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Who has a starting pitching advantage, who has the hitting advantage,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: who has the motivational advantage?
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is out of it.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are trying to potentially win their division
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: and make the playoffs anyway they can, so the Red
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Sox have more motivation here, although Cleveland, I mean, you're
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be motivated when you're playing at Fenway against
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. That's something will motivate you. Red Sox
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: have the better offense, so the two pretty significantly. Cleveland
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: is a terrible offense. Red Sox offense is kind of
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: tailed off a little bit, but they're still somewhere around
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: like a top ten offense, and they're better at home.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. He's had an up
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: and down season. I think this is his first season
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: with Cleveland. I've always kind of liked him. I thought
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: he was kind of an under the radar young pitcher
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: with some pretty good stuff. His numbers are all right
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: this year, four point four to one ERA, one point
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: twenty six WHIP. He's better on the road three point
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: four to two ROADYRA and he's been good in his
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: last two starts after he was really shaky early or
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: actually for.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Two starts in July.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: He was bad against the White Sox in Atlanta, which
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: is not really a good sign.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Those are terrible offenses.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: When he bounced back with good starts against Texas and
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay at Texas, which is a pitcher friendly park
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: against a bad lineup, and then Tampa not a great lineup.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: But it's still a good sign that he went six
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: innings in each start, gave up three or four earned
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: runs in each of them, and didn't walk anybody, had
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts. His command numbers have been good over the
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: past month, twenty to four strike a walk ratio, so
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: that's all pretty good, but at six point three one
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: ERA is concerning giving up too many hits, well over
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: one per inning over the month of August. Seven home
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: runs allowed is definitely an issue. He's allowed twenty home
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: runs this year. He's allowing a home run basically every five.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Innings, which is not a good sign.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: So his home run rate, that is kind of a
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: problem that worries me a little bit here, especially because
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Fenway Park, I mean, it's a pretty home run friendly park,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: especially for right handed poll hitters, as we know, hitting
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: it over the monster and also you can hit it
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: right down the right field line towards pesky pole, just
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: like Trevor Story did yesterday in that weird play that
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: bounce off of the right fielders glove and then off
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: the foul pole, which was originally not rule to home run,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: but it was reviewed and ruled a home run, which
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: was correct. I mean, if it bounces out of the
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: fielder's glove and then it goes like over the wall
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: into the stands, that's a home run.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: So it's the same thing.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: If it bounces out of his glove and then hits
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: the foul poll, that's also a home run. So they
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: got a correct on review. Red Sox sitting out of
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of experience against CHACONI only two batters of
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: facing them before, and they're zero for four and have
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: not reached base off of him, so very unfamiliar with him.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet is pitching for the Red Sox. He is
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: their ace.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I suppose the one concern with Crochet would be that
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: is he throwing too many innings. That's the one thing,
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: because he's still a pretty young guy and he has
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: not thrown this many innings before. He's almost thirty innings
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: more than the most that he's ever thrown, which was
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: last season, although he made more starts last year. I
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: think they started abbreviating his starts last year. But the
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are not really doing that because they're trying
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. Here, they're figuring like he's basically
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: rrace man, but he hasn't shown signs of slowing down yet.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point four R one point six whip.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's in the Cy Young conversation here, two
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: point three to three era. At home, he's really good
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: both home and away, it doesn't really matter. He's allowed
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in all but one start
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: going all the way back through the beginning of.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: July.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: One bad start at Houston this month this month as
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: a three point one to ninety IR in a really
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: good thirty nine to four strikeout walk ratio. I mean,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: obviously Crochet is pitching well, we know this. This is
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: a weak Cleveland lineup and they only have twenty at
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: bats against him. They only have two hits against him,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: no extra base hits, eight strikeouts, one walk. So it's
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: a one hundred average obviously in two forty three ohps
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: against him, and with the bullpens looking pretty good as well,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: I like the under in this one man. Uh money
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: seems to be very much, very strongly coming that way.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: Fifty two percent of tickets on the over ninety eight
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: percent of the catch on the under. Red Sox are
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: a big favorite here, so hopefully they win, but.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in against them. I don't really
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with a.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Minus two forty five favorite here. Red Sox actually moved
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: up on the money line, but it was like the
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: cash percentages against them. They're public, but the total drop
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: from eight and a half to seven and a half
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: juice to the over which probably means you can still
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: maybe even get an under eight in this game. Let
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: me see, am I gonna give up two plays on
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: the fly here? I think I might? I mean I
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: kind of like I like this one too. Man, man,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: let me see total. I mean, I dude, sometimes I
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: just have no self control.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: This is looking like, oh no, I'm looking at money Line. Sorry,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at Action Network real quick, but I pay
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: for this. I don't really love showing what's behind the paywall. Yeah,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: they're making it look like this is a very public
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: over here as well, with less of the money coming
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: in on that. You can only get the under seven
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: and a half now, but you can get it at
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: very cheap prices out there. Seven is a key number,
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: so you're still on the right side of seven with
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: a decent bullpenz here in decent shape. You know what,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: We're gonna do that one too. Fuck it, Cleveland Red
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Sox under seven and.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: A half in the full game. Man, I can't help it.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Let me see what did I just do? Let me
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: just make sure I got the right price on this.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: I can get it at minus one oh two.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Actually out there, I see it one of the books
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: right now in mass So there you go, two plays,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: and I'm giving out before I give out the other
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: best bets. So two best bets mixed into the regular
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: rundown segment, breakdown segment.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: There you go. All right, I'm not gonna do.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do anymore though, A right next up,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Miami at Washington.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I was correct.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: At Washington won the game yesterday. Alvarez actually made a
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: nice star for them. He had a shutout. I think
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: he went five innings in the game. Shut Miami out
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: big for Washington because they lost a bunch of games
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: in a row. I think they lost eight or nine
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: games in a row. And when you win a game
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: like that, to break a Los streak like that, it's
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: almost like you get like a monkey off your back,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: and it can kind of just help propel you forward
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: because they were playing like a team that just was
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: totally interested.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Know that they're out of it. Both these teams are
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: out of it, but I think.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: That win is gonna give them some actually positive momentum
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: moving forward. So I don't mind Washington actually in this
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: game today. Miami, I believe, used a significant amount of
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: their bullpen because it was a bullpen game.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Although they have expanded their bullpen.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: They got a lot of arms in their bullpen right
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: now at the September callups, so they did use five
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday because it was a bullpen game, so
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: every pitcher they used was a bull was a relief pitcher.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Washington has a terrible bullpen. They have the worst of
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens. They only use four relief pitchers. Miami's
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't that great either, though it Miami does have
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: a slight offensive edge as well, so they do have
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: the edges. I think they have the edge in those
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: two departments, but I think Washington has the edge of
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching. Adam Mazer is pitching for the Marlins
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: or Mazor. I don't know how you pronounced this guy's name.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: His numbers are not good. Five point five nine yr,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: one point four or five whip. Looking at his career stats,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have a lot of experience. He only pitched
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: last year for San Diego. He's still a young guy.
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: But he had really bad numbers last year and then
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: ERA over seven and a whip over one point eight.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: So his numbers are actually better this year five point
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: five nine r RA and one point four or five whip.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: But he's I mean, he hasn't shown signs of being
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: very good so far. He doesn't have a four point
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: five roady IRA this year, but he's only made two starts,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: one at home, one on the road. The road start
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: was a little bit better last time out. He did
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: have to face Philly and the Mets in those two starts,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: so he faced good lineups, did all the Mets to
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: two runs and four innings, but he didn't go that
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: deep into that start. I don't know what to expect
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: out of him here, man, I'm expecting him to not
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: go terribly deep here.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: That's what she said.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: Washington has three hitters who have faced him before and
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: they are three for six off and no extra base hits,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: though one walk, no strikeouts, so he guess do with
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: that information what you will. Cade Cavali is pitching for Washington.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been that good either. Five point one one
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: one point five to eight whip that's not good. He
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: does have a zero ERA at home though, which is
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: pretty interesting, but it's in a very small sample.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: But he's made two starts at.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Home and he hasn't a lot of run over eleven
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: and a third inning, so that's a pretty decent sign.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good at home. Really.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: His only bad outing was the last time out against
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. He got obliterated, gave up four home runs
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: in that game, lasted two and a third. He may
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: bounce back from that. I mean, he's given up four
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: or fewer and runs and all the rest of his starts.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Didn't have a great start at Kansas City, but still,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's pitched pretty decently in every start except
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: the Yankees won.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Both of those bad.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: Starts are on the road, so again, he's had better
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: performances at home.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Miami's never seen Kvali before, so.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: He has more of an unfamiliarity edge there to some degree.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in towards Miami, though, which doesn't make sense.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: To me, Washington down for might his one to fifteen
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: minus one ten on the money line.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Seventy percent of the tickets.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: On Washington and sixty six percent of the cash over
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: on Miami, So the money coming out of Miami, I
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: would lean to Washington, probably in the first five innings,
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: because you don't want to deal with their bullpen. But
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: I think Cavali probably has the upper hand over Maser
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: early in the game, would be my guess. That would
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: be my opinion there. I don't really have an opinion
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: on the total in that one. It's a fairly high total,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: but it dropped a little bit to nine juice to
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: the under all the way eighty one percent of tickets,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: ninety eight percent of cash on the over, so some
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: conflicting market signals there By the way, I did forget
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: to mention, the Dodgers are actually down for mis one
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: to seventy three to minus one fifty six on the
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: money line in their game eighty four percent of tickets,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: only sixty one percent of the cash, So the Dodgers
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: are not as heavily favored as you might think over
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: a bad team like Pittsburgh. So money seems to be
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: grabbing Pittsburgh at the underdog price, and maybe it makes sense.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Maybe it would grab like a Pittsburgh money line or
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: excuse a run line, playing that one to keep it
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: close in a game that you think might be low scoring.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: So some opinions there as well. Seattle at Tampa Bay.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay got the win yesterday Eve though it was
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: a return home spot for them, and Tampa really doesn't
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: have a whole lot to play for him. You know,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Seattle does. Seattle trying to potentially win their division. They're
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: trying to make sure they make the playoffs. But Tampa
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: returned home distraction or not, they beat Seattle ten to
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: two yesterday. I think this is I think I mentioned
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: I like to the over in that game yesterday, So
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: I love how I go own two and then some
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: of my leans are correct.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I love when that happens.
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: Seattle's pitchers tend to do worse on the road, man,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I mean in this stadium, steinburn Or Field. Tampa has
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: to play in the Yankees spring training stadium because they
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: don't have a stadium right now because of the hurricane.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: That wrecked it.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: It's a very hitter friendly ballpark. Road teams contend to
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: have some bad pitching performances there, although yeah, I mean
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: that is what happened yesterday. But sometimes Tampa can have
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: struggles there as well. But this is an interesting pitching
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: matchup in this one. Man, we didn't see a whole
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: lot of bullpend you said yesterday. Both bullpens are decent,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Seattle Tampa Tampa. On these two relief pitchers Seattle's three.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Seattle has the better offense out of the two, Tampa
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: as the better bullpen of the two, So I guess
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: two of that information what you will. But those are
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: some slight advantages on either side there starting pitching. I
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: think I probably lean to Tampa on the starting pitching man,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: even though Seattle has Brian Wu on the mound, and
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: he is probably my favorite of their starting pitchers. Man,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: he's probably the best of them all. He's got a
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: two point nine to five ERA and point nine to
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: five whip, again the rare sub one whip for a
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: starter with that many innings pitched under his belt.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: That's pretty rare.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse on the road though, remember
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: three point four to eighty RA and again this is
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: a very home run Conduces stadium, so he might not
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: do quite as well here. Both these starting pitchers did
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: just face these lineups recently, so the lineups are recently.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Familiar with them. They both pitched well.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: The Wu picked up a win against Tampa in Seattle,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: give up three runs and six sittings, nine strikeouts, one walk,
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: so he had good command in that start, which he's
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: had of the last month. Man the month of August,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: he won four of his five starts two point two
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: seven e RA thirty nine to six strike a walk ratio,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: so he's on point right now.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: He's Wu. I mean, we know he's very consistent, but
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: if it.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Was ever gonna be like a spot or like a
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: stadium that he was gonna pitch him where he might
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: not do quite as well, it might be something like this.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: And Tampa actually hits him pretty well, though it's a
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: small twenty nine at bat sample. They do have nine
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and no walks, so his command numbers are still
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: good against them. But he's allow of three forty five
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: batting average to them and eight sixty two ops, so
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: they have been able to hit him all right, even
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: including that last start that was decent. Drew Rasmus in
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: his picture for Tampa he's their best pitcher. He's got
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: a two point six four ERA and he's got a
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: point nine to eight whips. So both of our starting
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: pitchers here have a below one WHIP. So it's like,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: does that mean this game is an under? Well, as
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: I'm showing you, I think the starting pitching matchup numbers
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: actually kind of indicate that maybe you should lay off
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: of the under in this game. Man, Even though it
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: does look like it's an under type of scenario with
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: two good bullpens, you know, the bullpens are fairly rested.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: You got two good starting pitchers here. It does look
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: like it.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: As the makings for an under, but I worry about
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching specific matchup numbers. Man Rasmussen surprisingly is
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: actually better in this stadium two point five eighty.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: RA at home.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: He's a really good all season man. He's really efficient
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: with his pitches. It looks like they're letting him go
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: more though, because they had him on a little bit
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: of a leash where they I think we're just trying
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: to not burn him out, and they had him go
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: in five six innings and he was throwing.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: He was on like an eighty pitch count.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: But it seems like they increased his pitch count to
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: about ninety in his last couple of starts, but he's
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: still pitching well. One of those starts is against the Yankees.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: He allowed two earned runs in six innings. He's got
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: a twenty six to three strikeout walk ratio over the
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: course of August and one point five to three ERA
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: he allowed two or fewer on runs in every start
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: actually going all the way back through the beginning of July. Rasmussen,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: he is in good form right now, man, However, Oh
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: actually not. However, he does have good numbers against Seattle
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: as well, in fifty two at bats, eighteen to two
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio to twelve batting average, a lot
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: of five twenty nine ops. So Raspilsen does have good
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: numbers against Seattle. He does have the advantage of the
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: splits here. So even though the money is coming in
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: on Seattle the rough minus one o six to minus
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: one to ten, they got sixty percent of the cash
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: on them, sixty eight percent of tickets on Tampa, the
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: public on Tampa, which I don't even really understand that,
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: even though I know Tampa did win yesterday in a blowout.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: So Seattle might be pissed about that, But you think
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: that the public would be on Seattle because they're the
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: team with the better record, They're the team with something
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: left to play for. I think Tampa is actually a
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: little bit of an under the radar team to play
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: out the stretcher. I know they don't have a whole
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: lot left to play for, but playing a good team
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: like Seattle, maybe they will show up. You know, they
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: did show up last night Tampa. They have a pretty
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: good run differential actually, so Tampa isn't really as bad
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: as the record looks. So I leaned to Tampa in
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: the first five innings in this game, man, like I
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: showed you. I think Rasmussen can outdual Wu here. He
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: has the better of the home roads what's there, and
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: the better matchup numbers. So I actually think that might
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: be the way to lean in this game. I mean,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna disagree with the under even though I
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: worry about Wu's matchup numbers and the fact that he's
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: not as good on the road in this stadium might
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: hurt him a little bit. The total drop from eight
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: and a half to eight, basically seventy four percent of
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under nine to nine percent of the
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. I'll buy that percentage, but the
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: under I think is just a little bit questionable.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: But I don't disagree with that. I mean, it has.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Most of the makings for an under in this game,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: so I do Technically, I do still lean that way,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: but I still think that Tampa first five innings might
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: be the better way to actually play that game in
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: my opinion, even though Seattle will come out pissed off,
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: so I don't really want to deal with any of
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: that either.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Anaheim at Kansas City.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's did a little bit of a disadvantage here because
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: they played yesterday. They had a big divisional series against Houston,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: and they're traveling up from Houston.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge amount of travel.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: But it is gonna be the start of a third
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: straight road series for them. We know that Anaheim is
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: out of it. They're coming off a big divisional series
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: against Houston, so they might not really care as much
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: about a series against Kansas City, whereas Kansas City they
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: probably care. I mean, they're still in the playoff hunt technically,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: so I think they're still gonna show up. Yes, they're
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: coming up a series against Detroit, but they got shut
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: out yesterday.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: I know it was a big divisional series, but Kansas
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: City still has something to play for here, and they're
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: not traveling. They're staying at home, and they had yesterday off.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: Like I said, so Kansas City has a rest advantage.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: They do have the better bullpend. Anaheim does have the
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: better offense, though, but I like pitching more than I
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: like hitting. So Anaheim didn't use a ton of their
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: bullpend yesterday, but they do have a pretty lousy bullpend nonetheless,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: and it looks like they might even be going with
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: a bullpend game here. It might be like Madeiros or
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: something like that, making the start again here, because it
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: looks like they are undecided, so that's not good either
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: for them. Kansas City has Michael Lorenzen listed as their starter,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: not having a great season four point six two ERA,
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: one point three to five win, but I think you
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: probably still want to trust him over what Anaheim is
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: going to do in this game. Lorenzen has a three
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: point six to eight home hera, so he has been
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: good at home. He came back from injury. He was
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: injured for about a month. Over a month. Kansas City
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: has actually won his last five starts, even though he
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: only picked up a win in one of them. He
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: came back in August and they kind of eased him
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: back in. He pitched okay in three starts in August,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: and they ramped him up a little bit and he
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: went five innings in his most recent start.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: But he did have some easy opponents.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Man he faced the White Sox twice and Texas, so
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: you might have to dial it back a little bit
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: because those are bad offenses. Fifteen to four strike a
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: walk ratio though not bad four point seven to three
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: ERA and the fact that you gave up more hits
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: than innings pitch is not exactly great though, So Lorenzen
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: maybe not fully trustworthy here in this one up against Anaheim.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: They he has decent numbers against him in sixty two
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: at bats twenty one to ten strike a walk ratio
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: is still too many walks to forty two batting average
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: allowed those seven eighteen ops, that's not bad. So overall,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: I do still lean to Kansas City in this game,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: but you do have to lay a price for them.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: The totals nine, so it is expected to be a
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: bit of a higher scoring game here, but I still
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: would trust Lorenzen. He has decent matchup numbers of Anaheim.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is rested here, so I think that they
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: have the advantage there. They're down for minus one fifty
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: five to minus one fifty though, so it's kind.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Of a price to lay on Kansas City there.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: You could go run line, but it's a little bit
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: worrisome trying to have a home team that might not
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: bat in the ninth inning, trying to have them overcome
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: like a run line and like that, especially a bad
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: offense like Kansas City. So I do worry about that
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: aspect of it, but I do slightly lean to Kansas
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: City in there, and that is still probably the way
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: that I would look to play that game. Maybe a
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: split bet or go minus one run line, so at
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: least if they win by one, you'll push the bet
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: or split it half on the minus one and a
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: half and half on the money line, so that if
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: they win by one, you'll actually win a slight amount.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is at the Cubs. Cubs got the win seven
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: to six yesterday, a close game there. Cubs have the
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: better offense of the two teams here. I believe they
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpens. Still but let me double check that. Yes, yeah,
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: in R yeah they do. So the Cubs have a
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: lot of advantages in this game. Better offense, better bullpen,
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: and they have the better starter here. So really the
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: Cubs have the advantage across the board in this game. Man,
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: as far as the matchup is concerned, bullpen usage wise,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Cubs did use four guys out of their bullpen yesterday.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: They didn't really use their best relievers. I don't think actually,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: I kind of forget, but they used Savale in long relief.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I guess he's on the Cubs now, which I didn't
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: even realize he's been around, man, so interesting. I guess
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: saw the White Sox bailed on him, so he got
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: to stay in his house. Though, if he just went
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: from one Chicago team to the other, he didn't have
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: to move, so that's.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Good for him.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Atlanta they use four relief pitchers as well, and their
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: bullpen isn't really as good, so again, the edge still
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: has to go to the clubs as far as I'm concerned.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Joey Wentz is pitching for Atlanta. His numbers are not
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: great four point nine two ERA one point four to Whip.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the Road three point oh two
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: roady ra he's been.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: Think he's been good this month, even though he said
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: three of his five starts he's a He's allowed one
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: ear and run and three of the five starts, but
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: the starts against good offenses Milwaukee and the Mets, he
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: did not do well in those starts. He gave it
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: five and six earned runs in those and he is
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: facing a good offense here, so I don't think he's gonna.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Do well in the start.
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Overall, over the past month, he has a four point
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: seven to three e RA and eighteen to ten strike
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio, so his command numbers are not very good.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: So again, I don't really think I trust Wentz, even
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: though I know he did go six innings in a
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: couple of those starts, but I don't think he's trustworthy.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Cubs are pretty bad. In thirty
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: three at bats. It's not a huge sample size, but
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: basically all their hitters have faced him before. Seven to
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: eight strike a walk ratio is really bad. Home runs
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: alloted from Tucker and Turner three to ninety four bats.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: It sounds like a comedy duo. Tucker and Turner three
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: ninety four. It's not who's on first though, three ninety four.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Batting average allowed one nine oh ps. So Wentz does
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: not have good numbers against the Cubs, and he's going
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: up against showtee Minaga, who we know is good for
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Three point oh eighty ra point nine to
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: three whip again, very good whip on the season. He's
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit better at home two point nine six
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: ERA at home.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: He's been good over the past month two point.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Sixty five yr thirty two to five strike a walk ratio.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs. It's six straight
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: outings over the past five out he's got at least
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: six and a third. He's got at least seven in
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: his past three outings, including one against Milwaukee, so he
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: faced one good offense in there, and he's still continuing
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: to pitch well. But surprisingly, these numbers are not good
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta in eighteen at.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Bats four to three strike a walk ratio.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: It does a small sample size though Profar does have
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: a home run off him, So I guess Profar I
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: forgot about him. I guess he's back from his suspension.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: I guess just in time to play out the stretch
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: run on a losing team baby three eighty nine batting
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: average allowed in one thousand and thirty two o ps.
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: So even Naga's numbers are surprisingly bad against Atlanta, but
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: I trust him over Wentz for sure. The Cubs have
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: something to play for, man, because they're trying to make
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. Here they're battling Atlanta. Doesn't have a whole
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: lot left to play for. Although Atlanta, you figure they
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: will still show up for big series like this against
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: one of the top teams. So I think both teams
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: do have motivation in this game, maybe a little bit
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: more on the side of the Cubs. The money's coming
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: in against the Cubs, which worries me as well about
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: the Cubs side here, even though that is the way
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: that I lean. I would lean to like a Cubs
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: run line in this one.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: I know the Cubs offense has really been struggling recently.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: Although they did score more runs yesterday. Cubs uh down
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: for just one seventy five to minus one sixty nine
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of tickets, only seventy three percent of
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: the cash. So the money coming in against the Cubs crazy,
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: and the money's coming in on the under, which I
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: would not really agree with that either, sixty seven percent
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the over eighty eight percent of the
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. Although the total didn't initially go
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: up from eight to eight, juice to the over. I
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: would go with an over in this game, man, because
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers again have pretty bad matchup numbers, So
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: that is the way that I would look. The total
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: being at eight probably means that the weather is not
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: at least the wind is not blowing out at Wrigley.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: If the wind was blowing out, you probably see a
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: higher total because the wind has a huge effect at Wrigley.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: But even so, it looks like the weather conditions are
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: kind of like mid tier weather conditions. So I think
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the best way to play this game is still the Cubs,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: though in my opinion, even I know the market read
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: doesn't look like it would want to have anything to
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: do with that. I just think they have the advantage
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: basically across the board, So Cubs run line would probably
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: be what I would look to do in that game
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: the minus one and a half, but.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: I actually leaned slightly towards.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: The over on the total in that one White Sox Minnesota.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give out a play on that one as well,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: so I'll wait on that.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: A Is Saint Louis.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: I do have a lien on this one, but I
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: know this game really fucked with me yesterday. Man.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, we had.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: A low scoring game early in the game, and I'm like,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: we're on pace right now, and I think we got
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: into the fourth inning or something with no runs yet I'm.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Like, we're gonna get an under in this one, and
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: then the bullpens imploded.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis's bullpen, which is the better bullpen, actually imploded.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: And they didn't even use that many of their relievers.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: Actually, both bullpens only used two relief pitchers, so or
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: both teams, I should say. So. The bullpen's are still
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: rested coming into this one, but the A's bullpen is trash.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis's bullpen is fairly good. Saint Louis's offense is
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: not good, the A's offense is good. Neither of these
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: teams have anything left to play for, really, and the
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: starting pitching match him in this one is interesting. So
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: I do lean to the under in this game, but
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'm gonna give out a last minute
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: play on this one. I just worried there are too
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: many concerns that I have about this one. I would
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: lean that way though, So we got our man. Luis
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: Severino is back for the A's here. I forgot about him. Actually,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: he's got a four point eight two ERA this year,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: one point three to four whip. He's the he's the
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: guy that has extreme home road splits them. Man. He's
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: been really bad at the A's Triple A stadium that
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: they play in, which is very home run conducive. He
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: has a much better road. He ra three point one seven.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: He's been hurt. So he actually made a decent start
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: on the road at Washington. He had a few decent
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: starts in a row. Actually, well saw all of them
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: on the road before he went down, so he was
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: actually pitching a bit better before he went down. And
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: now he hasn't pitched for about a month and now
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: he's coming back. But he's a veteran man, he's been
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: around for a while, so a veteran like several Reno
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: pitching on the road here where he does significantly better.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I expect him to come out and pitch well in
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: this game, man. I think that's gonna be the case here.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: Veterans that come back from the injured lists like this,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: they're kind of used to it, and they tend to
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: get pumped up for the game and pitch well, and
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: the team kind of tends to rally a bit around them.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis only his.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Four guys who've ever faced him before only fourteen at bats,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: so they're not very familiar with him, surprisingly because he's
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: been around for a while and he's been in the
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: National League too. Two point susan he's a lot of
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: two fourteen batting average seven to sixty seven oh ps
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: is slightly high just because Gorman has a home run
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: off and but whatever four to one strike out walk ratium,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: so he's done pretty well against Saint Louis. He's going
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: up against Miles Mikolas, who is not exactly a trustworthy pitch.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Five point oh four RA, one point three to five win,
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: not great numbers there. He's been better at home though,
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: again these.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Home roads splits.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Both of these guys have significant home roads splits that
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: are both in their favors in this game. Mikolas has
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: a three point five to seven home YRA.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: This year.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been great. This month which is one of the
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: hesitations I have with an under in this game. He's
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: got a six point four ERA over the past month,
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: though he did face the Dodgers and the Yankees over
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: that span. He had to pitch at Tampa, so he
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: had some pretty difficult UH pitching matchups there. Eleven and
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: nine strike a walk ratio not good and six home
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: runs allowed. He allows way too many home runs too,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: so he is concerning. Although he's good at home and
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: the A's are not familiar with him, the a is
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: only a five guys who've seen him before, only thirteen
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: at bats. You don't have any extra base hits off him.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Two to two strike out walk ratio but a one
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: to fifty four batting average allowing four to twenty one ops.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: So both starting pitchers have good matchup numbers. So I
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: do still lean to an under in this game. I'm
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: not going to quite give it out as a play,
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: but the money is agreeing with that. Eight and a
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: half juice to the over down to eight and a half,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets on the over, but seventy
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: six percent of cash in the under. I would probably
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: limit it to the first five innings because again I
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: just don't know if you could trust especially the A's
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: bullpen here, So probably first five innings under would be
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: the way that I would play this game, and I
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: would also lean to the A's in the first five innings.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis down for minus one twenty two to minus
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: one oh six, sixty three percent of tickets on them,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: only fifty one percent of cash. Saint Louis has been
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: playing pretty poor baseball for a while, and the A's
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: seemed to me like they're kind of the more motivated
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: team playing out the stretcher, because I think they had
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: fewer goals this season, where Saint Louis started out the
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: season looking like they might be a playoff team and
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: then they crashed, whereas A's never even really thought they
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: were going to do anything this year. So I think
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: the A's just can play looser. They have a young
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: core here of guys that are just kind of having
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: some fun at this point, so I like that. But
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I do think severn Reno should be able to outpitch
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: Mikolas in my opinion in this one, Micholas, there are
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: just way more question marks around him. His recent form
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: is a good sever Reno extra boost in my opinion,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: because he's coming back off the injured list, I think
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: he'll be pumped, and I think he's actually the better
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers generally too. So slightly into the
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: as money line of the first five innings as well,
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: which it seems like the money is coming in in
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: that direction. Again, it's tempting to give on one of
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: those plays, but there are just some conflicting indicators in
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: that one. Yankees at Houston. Of course, this is a
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: big series. I mean, we know both these teams are
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: fighting for playoff positioning here. These are two good teams Yankees,
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: although I'm gonna complain in as a Red Sox Dan
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: the Yankees of course, coming into a big series against Houston,
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: of course, the Yankees get a rest advantage here. The
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: Yankees did not play yesterday. Yes, they have to travel
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: they're coming in from Chicago, but not huge travel there.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I believe that's the same time zone as well, so
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: not a huge deal for the Yankees there. Houston played yesterday,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: though they are staying at home. They beat Anaheim yesterday
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: to end that two game loss streak that they had,
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: so Houston at least didn't have to travel. Houston has
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: the better of these two bullpens. Yankees have the better offense.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Houston only used three relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: terrible bullpen usage for Houston Yankees. I mean their bullpen
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good looking at the starting pitching Max
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: Freed pitching for the Yankees. I think generally he is
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: the better of these two pitchers, although this is almost
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: looking like it could be a pitching duel perhaps in
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: this game. Fred as a three point zero six ERA
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: one point one to one whip on the season. He's
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road though, three point
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: seven to one ERA on the road. This past month,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: he hasn't really been as good five point one four
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: ERA twenty nine to ten strike a walk ratio, but
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: he only allowed one ear and run over his last
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: two starts against Washington and Boston, even though his team
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: still lost the Boston game. Yay for me, thirteen innings pitched.
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: He allowed that one on run over of that span.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: So he seems to be rounding back into form a
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: little bit after he was out of form.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: For a couple of months.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Really concerning with the walk numbers, he did walk five
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: guys over those eleven excuse me over.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: Those thirteen innings.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: That is a bit concerning that his walk number went
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: up against the Houston Astros.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not good.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: In ninety seven at bats seventeen to four strike a
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: walk issue is good, but two ninety nine batting average
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: allowed in seven to sixty ohps is not good. Three
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: guys have home runs off him, so Freed might struggle
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: on this one man. His matchup numbers are not good.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: He's going up against from Bervaldez for Houston. He's had
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: a good season overall, three point one to eighty RA,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: one point one to nine whip is getting a little
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: bit high. He's much better at home one point seventy
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: RA at home, so he has the advantage of the
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: home road splits. And just like Freed, he wasn't pitching
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: well for a while. It seemed like he got disrupted
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: after the Astros went on that huge run where I
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: think they won twelve thirteen of his starts in a row,
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: and then he lost one close game, or he pitched
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: well and just got no run support behind him, and
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: then he was derailed a bit. It seemed like as
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: his team lost four games in a row after that
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: and he started pitching very poorly. But three of those
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: four games are on the road against the Red Sox
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: the Yankees in Detroit, so I mean those are difficult matchups, man,
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: so maybe you give him.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a pass for that.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: Although he had a five point six forty RA in
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: August seventeen to twelve strike a walk racehoes.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: His command was not there.
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: Did bounce back nicely in his most recent start, that
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: with a seven inning shutout against Colorado.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: We know they are terrible offense.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: Especially on the road, but it's a good sign for
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: Valdez though that he bounced back and had a good start,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: So maybe he is coming back in a form here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: But he's gonna have to face the Yankees here, and
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: his numbers are not good against the Yankees in eighty
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: at batts twenty one to twelve strike at walk ratio.
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Three hundred batting average eight twenty nine
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: oh ps. Three of their batters have home runs off
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: him as well, so Valdez may actually struggle in this
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: game as well. The bullpens maybe not in the greatest
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: of shape here either, so I mean, I actually might
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: even lean towards an over in this game, even though
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: it almost seems too public although well, yeah, seventy two
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets are on the over, seventy two percent
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: of cash in the under, even though the total went
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: up a little bit from seven a half to eight.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: But for some reason, it looks like the money is
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: actually coming in on the under. On the surface, it
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: looks like a pitching duel.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: But digging into.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: Those numbers, I worry a little bit about that. Man,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: I think there could be some runs in this game,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: but the money also is indicating on the Yankees. Unfortunately,
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: they flip from a plus one hundred dog to a
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: minus one twelve favorite, and the public is actually slightly
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: leaning towards Houston as the home underdog here, thinking that
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: Houston I think has the better record right now, I believe.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: So maybe that's the public's thinking that this is gonna
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: be a close game, so that there's then value on
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: taking the home underdog just because it's a toss up.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: Fifty two percent of tickets on Houston, fifty six percent
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: of cash on the Yankees, slightly in to the Yankees
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: for me, probably only in the first five innings though,
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: even though I know their bullpen is rested, but I
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: do think the fact that they did rest yesterday is
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: an advantage in the game generally, So yeah, but again
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: I would probably lean towards taking their bullpen out of
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: the equation only going first five there. San Francisco at Colorado.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, these two teams are both playing out the stretch. Colorado, though,
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, if they're gonna show up for games, it's
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be games like this where a divisional opponent
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: is coming into their place. They also probably want to
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: stave off getting their one hundredth loss.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: That would be brutal. Man.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: They probably want to try to get a fortieth win
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: before they get in one hundredth loss, So there's a
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra psychological motivator there.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Perhaps Colorado lost.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Yesterday eight to two, though, I mean, that's obviously not good.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say something else. I'm trying to remember now.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say something else about one of these teams.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: I think it had to do with Milwaukee, though, because
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's just not playing today. But Milwaukee, I think they
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: had a lead early in the game. I think it
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: was one of the I think it was the first
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: game all season where Milwaukee blew a four run lead
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: in the game.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Or something like that.
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: There were a couple of weird things that happened in
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: yesterday's games, and I forget what the other one was.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: It might have been in the Atlanta Chicago game. I
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: think there was a big lead blown in this game.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Is that what I was thinking of? I don't even know. Yeah,
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: it might have been this game Atlanta had a five
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: to one excuse six to one or no, what do
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: they have?
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: No, I can't even do the math.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, six to two leads, actually six to one
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: lead going to the bottom of the fifth, and they wound
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: up losing the game. So it was, yeah, something to
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: do with that, I think Atlanta. That was the first
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: time I think Atlanta had lost after leading by four
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: more runs as well at some point.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Is something like that. I don't know. I forget what
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the fuck it was anyway.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: San Francisco Colorado, I mean San Francisco obviously has a
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: huge bullpen edge here. They only used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: They have a much better bullpen than Colorado. You're talking
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: about one of the best bullpens against one of the worst.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: You are talking about two really bad offenses. Colorado's actually
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: even worse than San Francisco's a though Colorado's is a
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home. But Logan Webb is pitching
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: for San Francisco and he's one of their best pitchers
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: three point one six ERA and one point two to
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: one WHIP on the season. He is a little bit
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: worse on the road three point five to three e RA.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: I haven't looked at his what his stats are course field,
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: because you know, course field is a different thing having
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: to pitch in elevation, but at least he's pitched there before,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: so he's used to it. He's been good over the
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: last month two point five one ERA and a really
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: good thirty two to three strikeout walk ratio. He's been
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: in command I've seen won four of the five starts,
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: including pretty good starts against Milwaukee and the Cubs. Give
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: up four and runs only once against San Diego three
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and runs once against the Cubs and allowed one or
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: zero in the other three. Numbers against Colorado are good
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: in sixty eight at bats, thirteen strikeouts, one walk, one
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: ninety one average elevet four eighty two oh ps. Web
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: basically dominates Colorado. Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado. His
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: numbers are not good. I mean, what else is new
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: with Colorado's starting pitching five point two eighty r one
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: point five to one whip. He is worse in course
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: field six point three six ERA, so he may struggle here.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: Had a decent start last time about at Houston with
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: six innings allowed, three on runs.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: That's not terrible.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: His decent command numbers really over the past month not terrible.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: Twenty three to eight strike a walk ratio but a
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: five point three to three ERA, so still not good.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: I mean he allowed five home runs again, Yeah, I
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: mean he's still not good. Obviously, his numbers are mediocre
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: against the Giants and one hundred and twenty three at
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: bats you've seen a lot of them. Twenty one to
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: thirteen strike a walk ratio is again bad, too many
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: walks of the seven of them are floor as who
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: hits him fairly well two fifty two bouning average and
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty two ops allowed, so the batting average
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: fairly low. Ops getting a little bit on the higher side.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: You know, obviously you're gonna to pay a huge price
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: if you want the Giants here. Throw up to minus
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: two thirteen on the money. Line eighty three percent of tickets,
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: only seventy three percent of the cash money. Also on
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: the over a little bit, sixty three percent of tickets
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: and seventy one percent of cash and the over even
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: though the total is now juiced to under the ten
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: and a half and you are dealing with two bad
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: offenses here, man, So I'm not really sure that I
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: love the over here. I think maybe if you make
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: sure that Webb's stats at course field are decent enough,
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: he dominates Colorado. So maybe the way to look at
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: this is to go Colorado under their team total might
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: actually be the way to go in this game, because
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: it's probably slightly high. I know they're a little bit
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: better offensively at home, but that might be the way
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: to look at that game. Not don't really have a
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: strong opinion there at all. Oh, thank you, Andrew. Uh.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Let's let's see your man, boobs man. Let me see
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: I am a yeah.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, my throat is definitely a feeling it right now,
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: but I'm battling through and still doing the show.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: It's been I think it's because of the lack of
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: sleep because I went to two concerts Friday night Saturday
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: night that definitely did me in a bit, and I'm
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: gonna have to be up.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know how late I'm gonna.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Be up tonight, but my big NFL fantasy football league
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: is drafting tonight, so I'm gonna have to establish the
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: war room in here and get ready for that tonight.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know when it is, seven, eight pm something
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: like that, So it's a big night fantasy football auction
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: style draft now, which I talked about that yesterday, So
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: go check out the show yesterday. I think it's in
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: the chapters. Dscript figured it out. Baltimore at San Diego.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: San Diego actually lost yesterday, but they were in a
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: return home spot. You know, I talk about those return
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: home spots being difficult, so San Diego they're in a
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: pretty decent bounced back spot here. Because when a team
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: returns home from a road trip and they don't do well,
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of times the refocus and bounce back in
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: the next game because that return home spot tends to
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: be a distraction. You got to get back to family life,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: and then the second game of you got kind of
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: punched in the mouth, and that for game it kind
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: of wakes you up again and refocuses you. San Diego,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: of course, is playing for something. They're trying to make
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. They could potentially win their division. Baltimore is
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: just playing out the stretch here. San Diego is also
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: significantly better at home than they are on the road,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: so that looks decent for San Diego here. San Diego
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen, but they actually just lost Adam,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: probably for the season. Adam got injured yesterday. I forget
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: what the injury was, but it was not good. Let
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: me see here, ruptured quad tendon. So that's crazy. A
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: ruptured I guess that's a tendon. I guess in his
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: upper legs.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Is that what that is? I mean, that's crazy. So
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: that's obviously bad.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: I mean that means he's gonna be out for the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: season match, They're not gonna have him for the playoff, Ronald.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: Though San Diego's bullpen is stacked. They have one of
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: the best bullpens in baseball. They did use four relief
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, though, but they still have a better bullpen
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: than Baltimore does. So though Baltimore's is more rested, with
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: only three relievers used yesterday, including long relief man Ends,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: so that kind of balances off the bullpens a little
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: bit of though I still think I probably give the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge to San Diego. To be honest, san Diego
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has the better offense of the two. Baltimore's got
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: a mediocre offense. San Diego's actually struggled this year, so
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: I'll give Baltimore a slight offensive edge here. Starting pitching
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: is interesting, man. Tyler Wells is pitching for Baltimore. He
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: hasn't pitched this year. I forgot about him. He's a
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: huge dude.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: Dude, he's six eight, two sixty. I mean this guy.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: He is a large mound presence man, so large than
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: the mound might cave in. But his stats, if you
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: look at his stats on his career, his career has
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: been interesting. Man. He's thirty one years old and he
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: only started pitching in the majors in twenty twenty one.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: So I'm wondering if maybe he had a delayed start
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: to his major league career because he had injuries.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not really sure.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: So he started pitching in the majors all he's pitched
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: entirely for Baltimore. Started when he was about twenty seven.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: He was coming out of the bullpend for them. Then
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: they moved him to the starting rotation in twenty twenty two,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: which is where he's been since then, and he's actually.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: Been pretty good.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: His career numbers four point oh six CRA is not awful,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: but a one point zero five whip is solid, so
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: then indicates that his era actually should probably be better
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: than it is. He has a pretty solid three point
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: five strikeout to walk ratio, even though he's not a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: big strike up pitcher, really fewer than one per inning
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: over his career, but he doesn't walk a lot of guys,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: so he's got pretty good command. So even though his
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: numbers weren't good in twenty twenty four, he only made
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: three starts and then he got injured and he hasn't
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: been back since.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: So, yes, I know he's a young guy.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: Maybe he's not totally used to returning from injury, but
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: then again, maybe he is because I think maybe he
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: had a delayed start to the majors for that reason.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: But I think he's gonna be pumped to return to
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: the majors man, even though I know he's on a
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: team that's not going anywhere this year. Based on his
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: career numbers, I think he could come out of pitch
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: pretty well in this game. It's a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: It's an offense that hasn't done that well this year.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: Wells huh. Although San Diego they only have thirteen of
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: bats in their careers against him, so they haven't seen
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: him very much. Only five of their hitters have ever
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: faced him before. They have five strikeouts, no extra base hits,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: no walks, although they do have a three to zero
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: eight batting average, but only six fifteen ops, so overall,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: I think Wells has.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Pretty much shut them down. I mean, it's a small
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: sample size.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't read that much into that, but I do
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: think Wells could come out and pitch well in this one.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Curtis, what's up? Man?
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: I forget if I said what's up already? I apologize
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: if I did it twice. But if I did, then
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: you get double you. Darvish just pitching for San Diego.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: He's a guy who came back from injury not too
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: long ago after missing most of this season. He's of
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: course old at this point. He's thirty nine now. He
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: just had his birthday not too long ago.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: A happy birthday.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: You his numbers, I mean, his era doesn't look good
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: this year so far five point sixty six, but his
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: whip is one point one one, which again kind of
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: indicates that his era is misleadingly high and should be
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: lower than that. He's been good at home two point
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: nine to five yrra at home this year, so he's
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: been much better at home over the past month. Twenty
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: four to six strike a walk ratio pretty solid. Four
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: point eight eighty RA was not that good. He didn't
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: allow more than fourign runs in any start, had a
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: couple of difficult starts at Seattle. In his most recent start,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: gave up four and runs, but he still had a
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: three to one strike a walk race, showing a lot
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: four hits in that one in a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: so that game he did better than it looks. His
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: one really bad start this month was at LA at
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. I mean, that's a difficult place to pitch,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: and he didn't pitch particularly well at Arizona either, which
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: again was a difficult place to pitch. He only had
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: one home start over that entire stretch, and it was
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: a good one. Six innings pitch wonner and run alowed
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers, so I think he might be able
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: to do well in this game. He's actually he's stepping
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: down in class to face his Baltimore offense. And they
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: haven't seen a lot of them, only seventeen at bats,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: only four of their hitters have seen. They only have
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit Gunner Henderson double four strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: two thirty four, batting average five twenty nine oh ps.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: So this is a game.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: I think I would go under first five innings in
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: this game. Man, the money came in slightly on San
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: Diego off for miss one sixty three and minus one
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: sixty six. Like I said, they aren't a bounced back spot.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: They do have the better bullpen at least, so I
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: think I could go San Diego full game. Maybe run
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: line maybe makes sense for San Diego here sixty percent
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: of tickets seventy percent of the cash coming in on them,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: although I slightly maybe even lead to wells in the
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: first five innings though, But I think the better way
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: to look at this, in my opinion is probably the
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: under seventy four percent of tickets on the over seventy
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: five percent of cash on the over, So basically the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: over is public. I don't really read into a one
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: percent one percentage of difference there between the cash and
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: the tickets. The total is just sitting at eight and
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: a half. Again, it's a picture friendly park too, And
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: maybe you could go first five innings under if you
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: worry about and Diego's bullpen being a bit used in
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's bullpen not being that good, and that is another
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: way to look in this game. Yeah, I mean, that's
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: what I have to say about that and the Texas Arizona.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: To finish this off, Arizona lost yesterday seven to five.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: This was the game I was thinking of. I think
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: where Arizona. I think when they were leading by multiple
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: runs in the eighth inning or later they were, they
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: had not lost a game when that was the case,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: even though their bullpen sucks, so I don't even know
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: how that's the case.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: But they wound up losing the game.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: And I believe in extra innings, right, yeah, in ten innings,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: so it was brutal. So I was kind of correct
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: about this game. I said, Arizona first five innings might
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: make sense because I thought they had the starting pitching
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: edge slightly, But I didn't really love Arizona in the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: full game, and they wound up losing it with their
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: bullpen late in the game, and as you saw, it
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: looked like somebody got injured for Arizona, Gurriel maybe, so
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: that's a kind of a blow for them.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: Man, he had a knee injury.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: Yesterday, So that's gonna be a low to Arizona's offense here, man,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: So that's not great. We know Arizona they're just playing
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: out the stretch here. They don't have anything to have
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: to play for really, unless they get motivated because you know,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: there was a close game yesterday, they want to try
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: to win. Texas is a decent al team. Texas is
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: trying to make the playoffs though, so Texas does have
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: motivation here. Texas has the better bullpen. We know Arizona's
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not good and didn't do well last night,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: and they use six relief pitchers last night too, so
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: that's not great. Although I know we have the expanded
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: bullpens now, Texas only US three of their So Texas
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpend, but they might need it because
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: they don't have a pitcher that they've decided on yet.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: So it looks like.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Texas might actually go with a bullpen game here. So
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be difficult, man, Texas going with a bullpen game,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: but it might actually be better than Arizona going with nobil.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: Chrismatt Here, chrismatt, I mean, I still don't trust him, man.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: Looking at his career numbers, they're not very good. One
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: point eight forty arra this year is good, but one
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: point three six whip is not good. He has a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: zero eer a at home, but it's a really small
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: sample size.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: He's made one start at home.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: He did put a lot of guys on base walk
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: three guys give it four hits and four innings, and
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: that one against Cincinnati and just got away with it.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: Didn't give up any runs.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: But overall in eleven to five strike a walk ratio
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: in fourteen to two thirds innings doesn't seem sustainable to me, Like,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: I don't think he can continue to do that and
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: not give up runs.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: He's basically a converted reliever too, so I don't trust him.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: His numbers are bad against Texas and the only five
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have faced him before a Merrill Kelly
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: even has a walk against him, and Patrick KORbin actually
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: is listed there as well as zero for one, so
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: those are pitchers they're not going to face him, so
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: really only three Texas bats have ever seen him before,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: but overall, the team's four for seven off him with
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: a home run from Teez Peterson has done a lot
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: of damage to.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: Three for four with two doubles overall.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: Five seventy one average, one thousand and nine to fifty
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: two OPS one strike out of two walks if you
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: include the Merrill Kelly walk, which is absurd. So I
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: don't expect him to do well. I don't know what's
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: gonna go on with this Texas bullpen situation here. I mean,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking maybe an over in this game, because it
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: looks like the pitching situation just isn't great on either
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: side here. Totals at nine and a half. Now, juice
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: to the under.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: If you can get an over.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: Nine, that would probably be the way that I would
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: lean in that game, because nine is a key number
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: in baseball, of course. So yeah, I mean this looks
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: ugly to me. Man, and the money line dropped for
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty mist one ten on Arizona, despite Texas
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: not even having a starting pitcher. Declared it looks like
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: some of the money is coming in towards Texas. Go figure,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: let's go to the best bets, man, and they'll get
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: out of here. This video won't be as long as
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: some of the other ones. I did already give out
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: two on the fly during the show, so we already
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: have two unders that I gave out on the show.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: I gave out Toronto Cincinnati first five innings under under
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: four and a half at minus one twenty was my
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: preferred way of doing it, based on what I saw
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: out there from the Massachusetts books and Cleveland, Boston under
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: the seven and a half. So I gave out those two.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: We're gonna give on another under here, which you already
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: basically know. And I'm going right back to what I
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: did yesterday Mets Tigers were going under. This time, we're
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: gonna do it in the first five under the four
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: and a half. I saw it there at even money.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: That's how we're gonna play this one again. I think
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: the market is agreeing with this. My mistake here, we
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: can get back to this here, come on, man six
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: forever to load the market reading on this one seventy
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on the over and this one.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: And fifty nine percent of tickets.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: Excuse me and fifty three percent of cash on the under,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: so money is coming in on the under. And this one,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: the totals dropped a little bit from eight and a half.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: It's just less juice on the over eight and a half.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: If you want to.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: Go full game, you could, but we're looking at two
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: mediocre bullpends.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: The bullpens got kind of used yesterday. Man.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: Detroit used four bo for of the relievers yesterday. On
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: the Mets, I think have the slightly better. They use
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: almost everybody out of their bullpen yesterday, So I don't
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: want to include the bullpens in this one. Man, I'm
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: just gonna leave them out of the equation. Yes, both
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: offenses are fairly good as well, so we're just gonna
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: focus on the starting pitching matchup in this one here.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: I try to not get screwed, although even that would
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: have failed for us yesterday because we were pretty much
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: dead right away in that game yesterday. But yeah, as
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: far as the bull bullpens, yeah, they're mid tier bullpens
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: with the ras around four.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching. That's where I like this. I like the
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: edge that we have in the starting pitching.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: We have two really young pitchers here that are not
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: that familiar with the opposing lineups in an interleague game.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: So I think that lends itself to an under man.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: Our man, Nolan McClain is pitching for the Mets.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: Let's keep our Nolan McClain streak going, man, because I've
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: given out an under in the first five on one
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: of his starts against Seattle, and I gave out Mets
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: run line slash money line playing one of his other
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: starts against Philadelphia. I believe, and we got them both right.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: So let's keep that up, man, Nolan McClain.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: He's in his rookie season here.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: He's got a point eight ninety point six y nine
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: whips so far. I know that's unsustainably good, but he's good, man.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's got a twenty one to four strike
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: a walk race across his three starts so far. He
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: just faced Philadelphia, which you kind of had to worry
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit. That's stepping up in class to
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: face a really good offense was gonna be maybe a
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: struggle for him, and it was not.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: He dominated them.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: Eight shutout innings, six strikeouts, excellent, four hits allowed, no walks.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: All of his walks came in the first start too,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: so he hasn't walked anybody in this last fifteen innings pitch.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: He's pitching really, really really well right now. Again, I
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: mean he can't really continue to.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: Pitch that well. That was a huge divisional game, so
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: it might be a little bit of a letdown component.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: But he's throwing over ninety pitches in every one of
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: his outings. That tells me they trust him. They're just
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: letting him go. Man.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: He is one of their top prospects and he's living
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: up to the hype so far. And of course Detroit
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: has never faced him before, so I think that's one
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: of McLain advantages that he's had so far, as that
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: he's unfamiliar to these opposing offenses, so they have to
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: kind of figure him out while they're trying to face him,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: and usually that causes the offense is to struggle a bit.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: So I like McClain here again here, man, I don't
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: see any reason not to. Don't want to eat my
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: words here. And then we have Sawyer Gibson Long getting
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: the start for Detroit. And another reason to go first
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: five year is because you don't know how long Gibson long,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: How Gibson Long he's gonna go into this game, man,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: because sometimes they limit his pitch count. He's been a
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: reliever for a bit as well. He's an interesting case, man.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: He's just not been healthy. That's really been the issue
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: with him. He's a really talented still fairly young pitcher,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: but I think his career has just kind of been
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: derailed by injuries.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: He started.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: He made four starts for Detroit in twenty twenty three
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: and was good. Had a two point seventy RM one
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: point one whip, solid stuff, more strikeouts than any he's
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: pitched three point three strike a walk ratio. He was
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: good this season. He has a four point three to
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: two AH doesn't look that great, but a one point
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: zero four whip is pretty good in limited playing time. Basically,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: he's been he's been in the bullpen and he's made
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: I believe two starts so far as well, which were
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: in June. So the way that it's happened is he
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: started out in the bullpen because they eased him back
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: in when he was coming back from injury. Had I
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: think he had three bullpen appearances and then they let
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: him start two starts where he went six and a
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: third and five and a third didn't do great, but
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: didn't do horribly in those starts. He did have an
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: eight to two strike a walk ratio, a lot of
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: four earned runs, but on three home runs at Tampa,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: and I've told you how hit or friendly that ballpark is,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: so I might give him a little bit of a
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: pass for that. He didn't do well against Minnesota, which
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: isn't exactly a great sign. Three on runs, a lot
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: of five and a third innings, but didn't put a
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: ton of guys on base really in that one.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: So I think he's still a little bit better than
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: he looks.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: And then he got hurt again, I believe, or he
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: was sent down to the miners, I'm not even sure.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: And since then he's come back. He made one appearance
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: in mid August. He came out of the bullpen, I'm
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: pretty sure, two scoreless innings against the White Sox. I
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: mean nothing to really read into that, really, but it
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: does show you that he was in control of his stuff.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: He had two strikeouts, no walks, only allowed one hit,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: pretty much almost a clean sheet there.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: So that's a good sign.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: And now they're trusting him with another start here, so
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: that's good and going first five innings again, then it
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: won't matter how deep he goes into the game.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: Really, as long as he gets us.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: Through the majority of the first five innings, I think
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: we could do okay in this game. Man and the
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: Mets have basically never seen him before. Only Mullins has
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: ever faced him before, and he's zero for too often.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: So I think the starting pitching matchup. We have talented
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: young pitchers here. Man Gibson long is the bigger question
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: mark here, but I think that that's the approach in
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: this game Man is to go under in the first five.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: So that is one of the top two plays that
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: I'm giving out today, the two that I gave on
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: on the fly or plays then I like a little
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: bit less obviously, But if you're looking at the side,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: the money has comeing towards Detroit, which is interesting. Mets
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: down for minus one thirty one twenty six. Of course,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: both of these teams have something to play for. They're
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: both fighting for playoff positioning Mets a little bit more desperate,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: I would say, But the money coming down to Detroit
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of tickets on the Mets seventy percent
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: of the cash coming down to Detroit.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: So the public kind of is buying into McLain. Now.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: I think they're kind of on that hype train now,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: the mctrain, and they're kind of ignoring Gibson Long. So
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: maybe that's kind of the reason there that some of
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: the professional money is taking a shot with the underdog
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: with Detroit here.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: And Detroit is good at home too, so remember that.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: Uh So they do have that kind of built in
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: advantage there as well, So I can kind of see
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: some reasons for that. But I like that because that
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: kind of means that the professionals trust Gibson Long a bit,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: and I think he's the harder of the two starters
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: to trust right now. So I like that as far
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: as our under is concerned as well. And then, like
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: I said, we did have I already mentioned it, but
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: Toronto Cincinnati first five under Cleveland and Boston under the
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: seven and a half, and then to finish it off,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: will go over. I know I don't have any sides today,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: but it's the way that it is.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: And I know this is a matchup with two bad offenses,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: but I think the pitching is even worse than this one.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: White Sox Twins over the totalm This is fairly ugly man.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, the bullpends are also not good. Neither
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: bullpen is good on the White Sox used almost everybody
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: yesterday because I think they had a bullpen game. My man,
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: Cam Boozer is on the White Sox. He was on
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox last year. He's an interesting case. Mamori's
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: kind of like a movie situation where he's just kind
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: of an aging dude. He's battled like drug addiction throughout
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: his career, never really made it in the majors, and
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: then finally like kind of got a chance with the
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. I think he made his major league debut
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: with the Red Sox coming out of the bullpen, like
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: in his thirties or something like that. So kind of
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: an interesting scenario with him.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I like the guy. I do like him.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of upset that he's not in the Red
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: Sox although he wasn't great with them, But yeah, there
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: he is. He's in the White Sox bullpen. But anyway,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: the White Sox bullpen is pretty used up right now, man,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: so that's not a good sign. They're not even a
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: good bullpen anyway. Minnesota's bullpen is also not very good,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: and they use four relief pitchers yesterday as well, so
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: pretty untrustworthy bullpens here. I know we have a bad
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: offense with the White Sox. Minnesota isn't that good either,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: but I think we can see some runs here. Man.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: These teams also don't really have a whole lot to
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: play for, So sometimes when that happens, and if you
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: think the starting pitching is gonna be out of the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: game somewhat early and the bullpens have to come in
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: even earlier, that kind of just cascades. And maybe sometimes
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: the offense is just gonna show up and have a
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: little bit of fun.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Could be the case here.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: Team's maybe taking this a little bit less seriously, even
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: though I know it is a divisional game. Davis Martin
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the White Sox. I've said he's not
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: that bad, which he isn't. A four point zero three
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: ERA one point two eight whip on the season, but
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: he is worse on the road, so we have that
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: split in our favor. Four point five eight R on
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: the road, and he has not been good over the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: past month four point seven to four ERA twelve strike
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. That's not a good sign. It's seven
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: home runs allowed. He hasn't been pitching well in Minnesota
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: just saw him two starts to go, so he is
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: very familiar to them right now. He pitched okay in
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: that start at home, give him two earn runs at
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: five innings, six strikeouts, one walk, and then he got
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: blasted by the Yankees in his most recent start. Three
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: walks in that one, a couple home runs allowed, three
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: earned runs, a loud and three and two thirds. Threw
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: way too many pitches and he's not going that deep
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: into most of these outings. Five strikeouts as well in
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: that one. So Minnesota just saw on him, and they
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: have decent numbers off him anyway. And forty one at
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: bats eleven to seven strike out walk ratio, three home
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: runs from three different batters. Two sixty eight average isn't
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: that high, but an eighty seven ops is pretty high.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: So I think Martin could give up some runs here.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: And he's going up against another untrustworthy pitcher, Simeon Woods
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: Richardson four point five ninety one point four to two
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: whip this year. He had some good numbers in his
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: past couple of seasons, especially last year, but he's never
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: really had great stuff, so I think some of it
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: was just that offenses hadn't really seen him before, and
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: this year he's been up and down between the miners.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been a great season for though. Yes, he is
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: good at home three point four ERA at home, so
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: we are going against that one split, but he has
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: not been good recently. Man he made he was back
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: in the minors after the end of July July, he
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: actually was not good. He had a seventeen to thirteen
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ration in July, even though he had
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: a three point two to two ERA, he was just
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: getting away with putting way too many guys on base.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: He's actually not even gone five innings in his last
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: four outings. That means we're probably gonna see the Twins
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: bullpen in this game pretty early. And then they brought
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: him back into the starting rotation and face Toronto his
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: last time out, and he did not do well. He
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: went three and two thirds, allowed five in runs, three
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: on runs, two walks, two strikeouts. So he's not a
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: good form right now. Neither of these pitchers are White
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: Sox small sample size against him fifteen at bats, but
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: they do have a four hundred average off him in
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: nine to four ops. So do with that information what
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: you will. But I expect the pitchers to kind of
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: struggle here. I expect the bullpens to make an early
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: entrance in this game. Of course, you want to find
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: the over. Nine. Nine is a key number in baseball.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: This thing is shooting up, man, This thing is going
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: towards nine and a half. So I mean nine and
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: a half is certainly not I mean, you're not getting
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: on the key number nine. So I would go maybe
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: even up to about nine at minus one twenty over
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: the nine.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Maybe still go the over nine and a half.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: I do like the over here, but it's definitely less
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: tempting to do it at nine and a half. Again,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: nine a key number if you have a four to
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: four tie, that's what breaks it. Eighty one percent of
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: tickets around the over and ninety seven percent of the
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: cash and the over.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Surprisingly, the over is public in this game.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: I don't see what public better would come in and
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: want to go, oh, White Sox twins and want to
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: go over in this game because these offenses aren't good.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: But do it that wol you will, But I think
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: it's mostly professional money. It seems like it is in
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: agreement with me on this. Minnesota also dropped on the
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: money line for what it's worth for minus one fifth,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: you know, mass one six take a seventy five percent
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: of cash coming in on the White Sox, So maybe
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: some more trust in Davis Martin there. If I was
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: gonna go with the White Sox, it would have to
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: be first five innings because I don't think you entrust
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: their bullpen at all. Uh so, especially in the lack
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: of rest situation they're in. So that's gonna do it? Man, Curtis,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: what's up man? A clinch a playoff spot?
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We can look.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee would would be the first team to do it
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: right now because they have the best record in baseball.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: But let's see here, it.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: Looks like no Colorado is eliminated.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: That's that's the only thing that's happened so far as
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: Colorado is mathematically eliminated. Shocking, I know. But Milwaukee is
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: not clinch a playoff spot yet.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: Well, of course they.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: Can't really because it's still mathematically possible they lose the
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: division and then it becomes a wild card battle. So
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: there are enough teams close enough behind them that there's
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: no math like mathemat none of these teams can possibly
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: do it. Yet there's still a month left, so I
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: mean mathematica you're talking about, like like if this team
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: loses thirty games in a row and another team wins
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: thirty games in a row, you know what I mean, Like,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: it's still a mathematic possibility, so you won't see teams
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: clitching a playoff spot yet.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Rockies are like having a historically.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: Bad season that might even be worse than the White
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: Sox season last year, although they've I mean they've had
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: some moments this year though, where they have some decent
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: young hitters on that team. They have some pitchers that
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: would probably be actually not horrible if they didn't have
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: to pitch a course field.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: It's just a bad situation. Uh. Anyway, I'm gonna get
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: out of here. But my play is one more time.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: We have first five under Mets, Tigers, first five under
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays, Reds, full game under Indians, Red Sox. I'm
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: gonna still call them the Indians, and over in the
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: full game White Sox Twins. That's gonna do it. Man,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: Let's get some wins today. How we're gonna tower to
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: what am I saying? Learn to toad on Twitter. Holy crap.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: Learn to tod on Twitter and learn to tone on Instagram,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: where I post the short form betting content. Better Off
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Dead like, subscribe to channel man, help out the YouTube channel.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: We're gaining him in.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: Uh, we're gaining subscribers a bit, so hopefully we continue
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: to do that.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: It'll be better if I start giving a winning plays
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: as has not been good recently. But yeah, I mean
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: it sucks because it's like most of the time that
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: I've done the show, I've been bad, but I was
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: really hot when I first started doing the show. Maybe
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: I should stop doing the show. It's been bad juju man.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: But yeah, uh, covering Uke is my yuke channel, so
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: you can check that out two on YouTube. Also, Better
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: Off Dead is on the audio platforms.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: You can give me a good review over.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: There on Apple and Spotify and Patreon, dot com, slash,
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: learn to toad, extra yuke content and stuff there that's
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. Have a good one, everybody in peace.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday.