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Why Ukraine's Starlink Scare Matters · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Something happened this week that Ukrainian officers are calling comparable
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: to a nuclear strike against us. It didn't come from Russia.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It came from the United States. I'm talking about a
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: speed limit that was imposed without warning on technology Ukraine
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: relies on to direct its drones. So you've probably heard
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: of Elon Musk's satellite service, Starlink, operated by SpaceX. Ukraine
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: uses Starlink and Starshield, the military version. It's connected to
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: drones to allow pilots to watch them and accurately steer
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: them remotely. But on Tuesday night, Starshield started switching off
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the moment the drones went faster than 100 miles or
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: 160 kilometers per hour, meaning Ukrainian pilots are basically flying
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: blind at that point. Who exactly made this decision for
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Ukraine and why? Well, there's been some confusion about that.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Here's how former Defense Ministry advisor Serhii Sternenko described it.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: On X, he wrote, Space X likely took these measures
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at the request of the Trump administration. Well, Elon Musk
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: has said it's not him he posted.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the U.S. government.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: military and ultimately POTUS, the President of the United States.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Let's talk more about this now with Stephen Blank. He's
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: an expert on Russian and Ukrainian security affairs. Steve, good
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: to see you.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Good to see you.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: So President Zelensky has said, if Starlink doesn't work, the
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: people will die. A Ukrainian officer has told Politico, all
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: operations are on hold. This will cost many of us
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: our lives. Why would this speed limit be such a
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: big blow for Ukraine's military?
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: You have to understand that the Starshield network allows Ukraine
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: to conduct intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance of Russian targets daily.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: using drones, and that includes targets like Russian missile launchers
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: from where they are launching missiles against Kiev and other
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: parts of Ukraine. Now, if that transmission is disrupted, then
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: the Ukrainians cannot target those missile launchers or other targets,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: for that matter, with any sense that the drones are
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: under control. because the connectivity has been disrupted and the
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: operator loses control of his drone or his missile or
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: his counter drone weapon against Russian attacks. So as a result,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: those missiles and drones that the Russians are sending get
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: through and they are wreaking enormous damage, including killing many
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: innocent civilians.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Could it also have an impact on, I mean, you're
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: talking about defense. Could it also have an impact on
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Ukrainian attacks on Russia?
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: Once again, if you cannot control the drone, you have
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: to call off the mission because you don't know where
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: it's going to go and you may hit the wrong target.
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: Ukraine has been very good about not hitting civilian infrastructure
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: other than refineries and And now data centers, but not
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: inhabited buildings or buses or apartment houses like Russia does. However,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: if you lose control of the drone or of the missile,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: then who knows where those weapons will go.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Now, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov has appealed directly
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: to Elon Musk to get rid of the speed limit. Musk, meanwhile,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: is saying, hey, this is out of my hands because
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: it's Starshield, which belongs to the United States. It's a U.S.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: government decision. Do you think this decision actually came from
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Elon Musk or is it from Donald Trump and his administration,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: which is what Musk seems to be implying?
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: Well, the last news I got is that Starlink, at
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: any rate, is reporting that it has restored connectivity up
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  Speaker 3: to 160 kilometers an hour or 100 miles an hour.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: And that Starlink is working. Starshield, which is controlled by
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: the government, I have not heard any definitive information about.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: So if it's happening, it's probably at the instigation of Trump.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: The U.S. government has not been talking about this. There's
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: been no clear official explanation for the speed limit. There
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: are a few theories. One of them, of course, is
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: that this is about leverage on Ukraine. It sounds like
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: that's the theory that you go with.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, I go with that theory. And what's more, Trump
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: got up and announced that there was an agreement to
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: stop hitting energy facilities on both sides.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: There wasn't.
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  Speaker 3: The Russians are hitting energy facilities because they just pocketed
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: the concession that Trump made to them. They're not going
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  Speaker 3: to concede anything. And Trump's going to go on blaming
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: Ukraine for his own failures.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Now, even if there's issue with Starlink, Starshield does get resolved.
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  Speaker 1: Do you see Ukraine as being too dependent on U.S.
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  Speaker 1: technology at this point? Is that what this is showing us?
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  Speaker 3: Unfortunately, yes. But the problem is that the United States
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  Speaker 3: government under Trump does not understand its best national interests.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: And those interests are being sacrificed on the altar of
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  Speaker 3: Trump's personal ego and personal interests. But Ukraine is now
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  Speaker 3: going to have to find a way to get that
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  Speaker 3: kind of intelligence network that Starshield provides on its own
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  Speaker 3: without recourse to the United States. And, you know, that
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  Speaker 3: leaves the United States a weaker power, not stronger.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Well, they are still weak. fairly able to influence developments.
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  Speaker 1: There's talk even of the U.S. having an off switch
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  Speaker 1: on the Ukrainian war effort. Do you see it that way?
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  Speaker 1: Does the U.S. have an on-off switch? Can they turn
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: off this war if they want to?
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  Speaker 3: No. This is a fantasy that the United States can
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  Speaker 3: turn off the war because the Ukrainians will not give in.
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  Speaker 3: And what's more, the Russians will not be satisfied unless
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  Speaker 3: they capture all of Ukraine and Russify it. You know,
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  Speaker 3: I've never believed that there's any solution to this war
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  Speaker 3: other than a Ukrainian victory. And to the extent that
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: the United States continues to make these ridiculous, and there's
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: no other word for it, ridiculous attempts to curry favor
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  Speaker 3: with Putin, we undermine Ukraine's interests, NATO's interests, and the
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: interests of the United States, as well as its reputation
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  Speaker 3: and power abroad.
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  Speaker 1: Stephen Blank, thanks so much for talking to DW.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you very much.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Let's get a military perspective on this. I'm joined by
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Glenn Ignazio. He's a retired U.S. Air Force major and
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: former Special Operations Commander. He's also spent time in Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: and helped set up evacuation routes and safe houses there. Glenn,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: good to talk to you.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: It's great to be with you. Thank you.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So, Glenn, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy and military leaders are saying
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  Speaker 1: that this speed limit is a life and death matter
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: for them. How important are Starlink and Starshield for Ukraine's
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: war efforts?
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you're absolutely right. It is rather significant in two
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: different ways. So, originally, Starlink operations, which is the same
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  Speaker 4: thing that, you know, civilians and so forth use around
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  Speaker 4: the world, was used in the very beginning to, you know,
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: fly some of these drones. As things changed a little bit,
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: Elon said, I don't really want to be part of,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: as a commercial company, part of offensive operations. But at
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: the same time, the United States government, and it is
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: the Department of War, Department of Defense, whatever you want
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: to call it these days, basically purchased from Starlink a
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: program called Star Shield. Similar to Starlink, almost the same thing,
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: but with some different capabilities. It provided the same connectivity
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: that was much more secure, Additionally, these systems have certain
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: images for infrared detection, command and control. So they're more, again,
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: I would say hardened, better for connectivity, and at the
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: same time have some of these optics on it to
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: be able to detect missile launches, and others as that
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: system is developing and developing. So that is definitely significant
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: to the impact of the operations because, again, I think
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: the worst thing is that they were not notified. So
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: when you're in the middle of operations, the last thing
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  Speaker 4: you want to do is have a degradation of systems.
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  Speaker 4: That's like a huge, huge failure, and it sets you back.
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  Speaker 4: I think that is also extremely disturbing in this situation.
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  Speaker 1: There's a lack of clarity, I should say, about who
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: imposed this speed limit and why they did it. Ukrainian
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: leaders seem to think that Elon Musk has some control
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: over this. They've even asked him directly to lift the
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: speed limit. Elon Musk saying it's not up to him,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: it's up to the U.S. government. What do you think?
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I appreciate you asking me, and one of
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: the things I enjoy working with all of you guys
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  Speaker 4: is being apolitical and telling you the facts. Look, from Starlink, again,
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  Speaker 4: the commercial, yeah, that isn't controllable from Elon Musk because, again,
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: it's a civilian corporation. In fact, it was turned off,
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: I think, for a couple days way, way back. When
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: these things were being questioned of who's paying for what. Okay,
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  Speaker 4: so that's the civilian side. However, the Star Shield program
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  Speaker 4: is a United States Department of War program that is owned, controlled,
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  Speaker 4: and everything in operations by the Department of Defense or
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: Department of War, where the Secretary of War and the
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: President has the ultimate decision. And that's not to protect anybody.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: That is just the facts of the way it is.
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  Speaker 4: The reason for it is because this is being paid
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  Speaker 4: by the military, U.S. military, and is you're not going
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  Speaker 4: to have a civilian company impacting military operations for the
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  Speaker 4: United States since they own it and operate it. So yes,
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: that is absolutely true. That is up to, of course,
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  Speaker 4: the commander in chief, which is the president. He has
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  Speaker 4: the authority and the ability to say, you know what?
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  Speaker 4: I want to shut that off. I'm going to turn
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  Speaker 4: that off. And that's one of the things that, again, occurred. Now,
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: who made the decision? That's not Elon Musk, but who
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  Speaker 4: in the government or what have you, that is to
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: be answered. One of the interesting comments is, you know,
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: I think people have read today or just a little
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: while ago that President Trump says, hey, I have not
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: stopped sharing intelligence. Okay, well, let's cut through some marketing here,
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: is that not sharing intelligence means I'm not giving you information.
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  Speaker 4: I'm not providing you certain things. Maybe that's true. But
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  Speaker 4: when you're talking about connectivity and operational impact, that's a
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  Speaker 4: little bit different. So that's how I see it, is
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: you may be saying you're not sharing intelligence, but this
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  Speaker 4: is an impact to operations, which I consider important.
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  Speaker 2: A little bit different.
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  Speaker 4: So let's be very clear as far as how people
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: are approaching it.
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  Speaker 2: But yes, it is a U.S. government Department of War
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  Speaker 2: defense program.
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  Speaker 1: And there were some accusations or speculations that the U.S.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine or had shared less
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: intelligence with Ukraine. Why would they slow down Starlink or StarShield?
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  Speaker 1: What is the aim? And I know it's speculation at
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: this point, and there are a few theories floating around.
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  Speaker 1: Why do you think this is happening? Sure.
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  Speaker 4: And again, the details, the facts for people to make
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  Speaker 4: their own decisions on this, but we're going to give
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  Speaker 4: it to you as far as what this looks like, regardless.
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  Speaker 4: When you have a particular objective, as far as what
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: we saw before, again, StarShield and the operations are We
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: also have some other systems. First of all, we've talked
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: about StarShield can do some of the detection of, say,
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: missiles and launches. That's one of the big things that
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: it's going to do in the future. But we also
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: have a thing called SIBR, Space-Based Infrared System. These are
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: satellites that were originally designed to detect intercontinental ballistic missiles
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: for nuclear and everything, and they also have the capability
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: to detect the launches of other ballistic missiles.
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  Speaker 2: So just to explain that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: So that's one of the key things that we're able
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: to provide on intelligence. Now, if you look at it,
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: regardless at the timeline of things that have changed, you
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: saw President Trump or the U.S. government make the decision,
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: President Trump, that we are now going to buy diesel
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: from the Russians. Okay, that actually contradicts a lot of
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: our sanctions, especially the sanctions that were just passed, what
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: we call, I believe, the Lindsey Graham Act, where there
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: was a significant amount of sanctions put on Russia to
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: prevent them from funding the war in Ukraine. Okay, so
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: that's one action there. At the same time, it's also
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: carved for Zelensky's replacements. And then lastly, he says that
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: this could have been solved many times if Zelensky just
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: ended the war. Well, that really factored into basically Ukraine
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: giving away land. So as much as you want to
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: say Zelensky wants to stop this, you have to say
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: that Putin did. has the ability to stop this because
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: he is the invader and he's the one that has
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: the ability to pull this back beyond anybody. You can
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: flick a switch and this war is over. So it
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: is interesting when you look at those politics, those situations,
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: and the statement that Zelensky attacking the diesel plants or
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: the diesel programs and so forth in Russia has jacked
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: up the diesel supplies and the prices around the world. No,
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: that's refinement that has nothing to do with Ukraine, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: that is also something that the impact, of course, of
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: our conflict in the Persian.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Gulf is impacting. And so that was one of the biggest.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: Things that was a change for Ukraine and Zelensky and
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: his military was to attack the lifeline and logistics train
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: of Russia. And those logistics changes is what wins wars. Now,
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: conflicts and tactics, they may win battles, but wars are
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: won by logistics. And that was one of the things
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: that I heard verbalized specifically by President Trump. And you
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: have to look at that. And that's not speculation. It's
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: for you to figure it out. But those are the
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: facts on the ground right now.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Let's connect some of the dots here, because you've talked
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: about Trump's interest in Russian diesel, Ukraine attacking Russian energy infrastructure.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: And this is happening at the same time that the U.S.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: is giving less logistical support in the form of Starlink
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: and Starshield. Is this connected? Is the U.S. saying, look, Ukraine,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: we're giving you less support here because you're not doing
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: what we want?
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the last part as far as doing what we want,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: I think it's one of the interesting parts as far as,
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: you know, seeing President Trump operate. A lot of times
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: he'll say one thing, do another. What that reason is,
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: it's more or less seeing his actions than a reality.
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: But again, when you see those particular statements and you
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: see those actions within a particular week, and then you
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: see an action like this in a particular week, it's
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: hard not to draw a connection.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just anybody's going to do that as
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: we see.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: And again, the idea of it happening without being notified,
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: I think, is extremely problematic. So yes, it's hard to
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: say that it was not part of this. But at
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: the same time, I don't want to reach too much speculation,
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: but people can make up their own decisions. based on
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: what we see, right? So it's hard to say that
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: it's not connected because it is very ironic how this
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: timing has played out and people can make their own
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: decision on that one.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Glenn, Ignacio, thanks so much for talking to DW.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, and appreciate your time tonight as well.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: What do you think? Is Ukraine too dependent on U.S. technology?
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Let us know in the comments. And if you found
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: this video useful, don't forget to like and subscribe to
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: our channel.