Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/13/25

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NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF + NFL Best Bets Thursday 11/13/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my bruins hat. Man.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I can possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you for better
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: off dead. No toasal sports is that we're calling this now.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: We're not off to a good start with that. Uh,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: maybe I should change the name back because of how
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: ass yesterday was. Nobody should ever listen to me again. Obviously.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: This is what's today, Thursday, November thirteenth. Nobody should ever
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: listen to me ever again, especially on college basketball. We
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: started off six and zero in college basketball, and since
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: then it's been just as bad as it was last
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: year or early this year, if you want to call
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: it that. Like, we're basically back to break even in
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: college basketball. I think slightly up still, But I don't
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: know what to tell you man, two and five in
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: college basketball yesterday. Everything else is sort of as expected.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: The day started off pretty good. I mean, we got
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a couple wins right off the bat. Oral Roberts was
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a win in college basketball. They probably should have won
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: that game outright. I mean they were in that game
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the entire wave, even though it was high scoring. They
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: were winning the game by one in the final seconds
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: of the game, and they gave up points right at
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the end. I didn't see exactly how it happened, but
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: they lost by one, So that was a cover. That
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: was a good call. The market totally agreed with me
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: on that, as that line crashed all the way down
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to six and a half. I basically recommended trying to
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: get that at seven or better. If you got it,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you know in the morning, you got the better number.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: The market moved against me on the UTSA game and
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: moved the lineup to three. Uh. That one. That was
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: my least favorite. I probably shouldn't have added it, and
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I just had. I had it on my card and
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: then I was looking. I'm like, holy shit, I have
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of plays today, man, just I don't know.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Probably shouldn't have had that one. Colorado State, I think
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: they should have gotten that done. They they missed by
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: like two and a half points. They were winning that
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: game by like twenty two with two and a half
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: minutes left, and they wound up only winning by fourteen
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: kind of unlikely there. The market I think wound up
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: agreeing with that one. If you look at like the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Chicket cash percentage, I mean that one. I don't really
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: regret that one. I think that was kind of a
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that was just a bad luck loser. To be honest
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: on that one. Utah State weren't they were not able
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to do it. I'm pretty surprised Weaver State was able
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: to show up and they only really it seemed, showed
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: signs of fatigue later in the games. I think that
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: game was tied at halftime, and if you're laying huge points,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: that's obviously not what you want. Even though Utah State
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: won the game by double digits, it was not enough.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: And I think the market agreed with that one too, though,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Like in the end, like looking at these market percentages,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the market agreed with that. Oregon, I think we got
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: a better number on that. Well. The Utah State number
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: had moved up to like twenty three as well, and
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I gave it out at twenty and a half on
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the show. Oregon's Yeah, Oregon, I think went off at
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: about sixteen and a half, so it went up by
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: about one point. Again, Oregon just that was a bad
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: one again. That was a bad call. Like this, I'm
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: never gonna lay points with Oregon again. Basically, this team
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: they cannot win by margin. I don't know what else
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: to say about it. That was bad, That was a loser.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I don't remember the market agreed with that or not.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I know the market disagreed on Seattle, but Seattle was
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: one of the winners. That was an easy win with Seattle.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: The market seemed like the cash was coming back against Seattle.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Don't know why. The only reason I could see why.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: One thing I forgot to mention is that was it's
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: kind of like a rivalry between Seattle and Eastern Washington,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: just because they're close geographically. But I don't even know
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: which team considers themselves to be the little brother Like.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: You could argue that it's Seattle because the Whack is
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: like the Whack is Whack. It's such a low tier conference.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: You could argue they consider themselves lesser than the Big Sky,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: which is where Eastern Washington is. I don't know Eastern Washington.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: They're a team that's made the tournament repeatedly, including I
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: think recently, and I don't think Seattle ever has, so
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle might play with a chip on their
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: shoulder against that Eastern Washington. We got that one done
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: and then Nevada they had a horrible game. I think
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: that was I mean, I think the market agreed with Nevada,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: and I think it was just it just it just
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: did not go the right way. Like they just didn't
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: shoot well at all. That was the whole thing. Like,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I think they had way more possessions, they had way
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: more field goal attempts, and when you see that, you're
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: you're usually going to see that team get the win
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: more easily. But I think they won. But I think
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: they I think it went into overtime and I think
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: they only won by a few points. Horrible. Obviously, I suck.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Never listen, dude, I want to get college basketball on
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the right track again. It was so good a couple
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: of years ago. I don't know what is going on here.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: It just feels like I can't, like I can't do
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: it for shit anymore. Hockey, we got the Rangers right
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to kick the night off, so we were two to
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: zero at that point with the Rangers and or Roberts,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: So I was feeling pretty good at that point. The Rangers,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: they were up four to three I think after like
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: one period, and then wound up winning seven to three.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I didn't see exactly what happened, but Rangers, they're good
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: on the road. Baby. Buffalo completely fell apart. Buffalo was
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: within one goal of Utah. I shouldn't have added that one.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I I don't know what to say, but I was
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: expecting them to at least just lose by a goal
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and at least push that bet. But that did not happen.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: They got out played. Man, what can I say? Utah
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: had way more shots in that game. I'm pretty sure
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Buffalo couldn't get anything done in that game. That was
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: a bad call. I shouldn't have added it. And New
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Jersey so yesterday it was four and seven on the show,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: which I that is awful if you played New Jersey
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: on the money line after the line dropped over it
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: because the line did drop into the money line territory
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: where I say, just go from the money line. It
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: dropped down to like below minus one forty. I think,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: so some of the money actually came in against New
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Jersey late. They still won, but they won an overtime
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and they never let in regulation. It was a close
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: game the whole way, I think statistically New Jersey might
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: have had the edge a little bit in the game. Yeah, so,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you play the money line full game,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: like including overtime, you got it right. So it would
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: have been a five and six day, which is at
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: least much more tolerable. But college basketball was obviously the
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: huge problem, and I'm gonna have more today. I mean,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: we're in the middle of college basketball season, Like, what
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: can you do? I don't know what to say? And
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: then my NBA continued to roll. NBA. I think we're
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: up on the season. I know we hit a little
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: bit of a lull in the NBA after were really
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: hot at the beginning. I think we're still up in
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the NBA and the NHL, I think this season. But
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Detroit Pistons, they actually flipped a one and a half
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: point dog and it didn't even matter which number you got,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: it was still sort of picked the winner. I mean,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: obviously you'd rather have the plus one and a half
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: dog than ask him to win by basically two possessions almost,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: But yeah, they won pretty easily. I mean I did
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: mention that the line might move a little bit more,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Like I mentioned it looked like Cunningham was probably gonna
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: be out, and Giddy looked like he was gonna return,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: and I think that's what happened. So the line shifted
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: even more to the point where Chicago was a road
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: favorite and the market looked like it was agreeing with that.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, no way. There were so many situations
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: for me that lined up on Detroit in that one.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I liked Detroit. I am the Pistons whisperer after all,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So we got that one, right, jac what's up? Thanks
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, Jeffrey, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I only went I went against the money with Seattle,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: which was a winner, the Pistons, which was a winner,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: the Devils, although that was a winner in overtime. Those
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: are all against the market, but those were those went
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: three and oh I don't remember if the Buffalo Sabers
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: was against the market or not. In the more the morning,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the reads were all in line with them. But I
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: actually I think I went against the market with the
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Rangers too, Like if you look at what happened with
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the final cash percentage, that was a winner too. So
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I'm beating the market, baby. I think I think my
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: read is better than the market, even though I try
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to combine both of them, and I don't like playing
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: like public sides and whatever. And then yeah, college basketball,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: like I think the only games yesterday that were losers,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: that were in opposition to the market were probably UTSA,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and at least the market definitely moved against it. I
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: don't know if the final percentage actually wound up going
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: against it from my read, you know, on like pregame
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: there and then we had Yeah, it was that one
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: of the Then I think there might have been one
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: other one. I think there were three college basketball games
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: that were not in line as far as the market read.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: That was one of them. Seattle was one of them,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: but we want on that one, and then the other
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: the other one was or again I think so that
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: was a loser too. So I think going against the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: market read yesterday, I think I was four and two
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: or maybe five and two or well you could argue
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: four and three if you if you want to argue
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: against the Devil's in regulation play, but they did win.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So college basketball, I try to keep it selective. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't want to call anything easy because
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: nothing is easy, so like you have to like I
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't want to say anything's easy, nothing's
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: a lock. You try to get like the right read
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: on these things and then and like do it, and
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: that's just what you do and hopefully get enough right
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: that you win money. I mean, that's basically it. Let's
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: getting into today. That was a long ranch. We don't
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: have a ton of college basketball today, and we give
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: about three plays. I'm not really gonna talk about many
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: of these other games, though. We do have a big
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: game up at six pm Eastern on Fox Sports one,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: which is Pittsburgh at West Virginia. This is still like
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a rivalry between these two schools. I mean, it's not
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: really as big as the football one, the backyard brawl,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: which has returned, although now it's gonna go away again
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: for a while. But these two teams don't like each other.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: They're pretty close geographically. This is an interesting one though,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: because the line has West Virginia as the favorite up
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: from three to five and a half, pretty public eighty
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets and cash. I wonder if
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: maybe just because West Virginia is in the Big twelve,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: maybe they get more respect in the market and get
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the public action over an acc team, But you got
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: to remember that Pitt has actually been the better of
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: these two teams over the last couple of years. It
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: made the tournament a couple of years ago, at least
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: into the Yeah, they got into the actual turna. I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: think they were in one of the playing games, and
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: then they got into the tournament and I think right,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and they might have even won the first game of
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: the round of sixty four too, if I remember correctly.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: That was two years ago, I think, And last year
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: they fell short I think West Virginia though I guess
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: West Virginia actually was in the tournament a couple of
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: years ago too, and last year they weren't whatever. But
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: to me, it seems like Pitt should kind of have
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: more of the public action just now because people remember
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: what they saw last and Pitt was the better team
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: last year. Ken Bomb does have Pitt as the better
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: team here. He has them sixty third in the country.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Is West Virginia I think down in the nineties. Oh no,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: he has him seventy eight now, But he does have
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Pitt as the better team wough only by fifteen ranking spots.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: But ken Bom is kind of not aligned with what
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the market is like the market threw this number up
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: at three, which is pretty close to align with ken Bomb,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: I think, and then the Betters came in and actually
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: pushed West Virginia up, but it looks like they're public
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: so I don't really have a read on this otherwise,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: except that ken Bomb is basically gonna say that this
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: number is too big, and you know, do what you
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: want as far as like, do you trust ken Bump's
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: numbers yet when they're not like fully fleshed out yet.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know Pitt's three and zero to start the season,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: so is West Virginia. They haven't really played anybody good yet,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: like neither team really has, so I think Pitt has
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: probably faced the more difficult schedules slightly. Youngstown has been
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: decent in the Horizon recently in Longwood, usually one of
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: the better teams in the Big South. I know I'm
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: not saying a ton, but uh, there is that. This
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: is gonna be Pitt's first true road game though, so
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: that does put Pitt at a disadvantage because it is
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: their first true road game. I don't like being on
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: teams in their first true road game of the season
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: because they're just not used to that. Type of hostility.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Yet West Virginia did get an easy game against Lee High.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is a game I almost added
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: to my card, laying it with West Virginia because Lehigh
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: was coming off Oh no, I was gonna say, I
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: thought Lee I was coming off a close call against Houston,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: but they had won a game in the middle there,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: so I don't know what I was thinking. But West
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Virginia I believe was able to win and cover in
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: this game, which was one that I was considering briefly
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: in that one anyway, and it was a look ahead
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: at the very least to this game, the backyard brawl.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, at this point I would probably come back
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: and take the points with Pitt here though, because I
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: just think West Virginia's resume is a little bit less impressive.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting a little bit of value on
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the number. Don't love the Pits on the road, but
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Next game up is gonna be one of my plays.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: These next two are Should we just turn this whole
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: show into the best bet segment? I guess I'm gonna
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: have three college basketball plays, one hockey, and that's it today.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Don't like the two football games really, and i'll give
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: out opinions. I have a stronger opinion on the college game,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: and NBA is a very small board, so not a whole.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I don't like the NBA board at all. All right,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: first play up, We're gonna take the points with San
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Jose State and it's Michigan State plus twenty four and
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: a half. Don't really see what's going on with this
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: market yet. The line did initially move up on Michigan
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: State from twenty one to twenty four. I see twenty
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: four and a half's out there, but I mean not
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: much of a difference between twenty four and a half
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and twenty four kind of. I mean, you're in numbers
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: that are just so high. It's like whatever, fifty percent
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, fifty two percent of the cash coming
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: back in San Jose State right now. I think this
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: might be one of these classic like early season games
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: that I like to grab, where you find a team
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: that's just in a sandwich spot it just might overlook
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: their opponent. It's a low total too, down to one
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty two and a half, so that's a
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: decent indicator that it makes more sense to take the points.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: The points are worth a little bit more when it's
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a low total. Although I know this isn't football. There
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: are more points squared in basketball. But still you're looking
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: at a Michigan State team that, Yeah, even though they're good,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: they battle tests themselves. I don't think they're as good
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: as kind of their perception though. Ken Bom has them
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: outside of the rankings at thirty third, even though they're
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: ranked seventeenth in the rankings. So ken Bom more accurate
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: than the A peeple whatever. Ken Bum is closer to
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: what the oddsmakers are gonna have. He's got Michigan State
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: at thirty third. They aren't particularly good offensively fifty fourth
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: in offense right now, good defensively fourteenth, and they're a
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: slow paced team, which is usually the case, two hundred
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: and seventy eighth in tempo, and they've also been a
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: bit lucky according to ken Pump, fifty third in luck,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: so that means they're overperforming a little bit as well.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: So that does fit the profile of the team you
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: kind of want to fade. And because they're slow tempo,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: they're gonna slow the tempo down at home. That means
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: it's going to be harder for them to cover a spread,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: especially when they're more of a defensive team than an
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: offensive team. Makes it harder to cover as a favorite.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: San Jose State also play slow. They like to play
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: even slower at three hundred and twenty first, But Michigan
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: State does not play the style of offense it's gonna
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: throw San Jose State out of the style that they
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: want to play. These are both slow paced teams. San
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Jose State is bad defensively, I know, they're actually not
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: horrible offensively at one hundred and thirty second. They're one
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty sixth overall in Kembom's rankings, so they're
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the pack basically in Division One.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: They're not good, obviously, but not horrible. They faced a
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: decent strength to schedule according to kem Bump so far
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: at seventy fifth, so they're slightly battle tested, and they're
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: low in the lock in DEX at two fourteen. I
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: don't want to really go through the Kembom's numbers for
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: all these things, but I like to. I tend in
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: the early season to like to go with teams that
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: are low in the luck index because it means they're
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: underperforming right now. But the real crux of this is
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: that I don't think this is a good spot for
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Michigan State. Man. I mean they're coming out of a
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: big game in a ranked matchup against Arkansas where they
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: beat fourteenth ranked Arkansas. Kempom probably does have Arkansas ranked
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: higher than Michigan State. Yeah, he has them twenty six
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: in the country. It's a John Calipari team. That was
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: a national TV game. I'm pretty sure that was a
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: big game for Michigan State. They got the win by three. Yeah,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home. But up next on Tuesday, they
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: got this neutral site game against Kentucky, who's a top
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: ten team right now. I think according to the rankings
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: and ken Bum Yeah, kem Bom has them fifth right now.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: He had them first before they lost to Louisville. I
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: wasn't totally sure about that. I kind of lead to
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Louisville in that one. But Michigan State does have a
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: big game up next. It's gonna be in the State
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Farm Champions Classic, which is at Madison Square Gardens. This
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is a big game. It's neutral site game. I believe
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: it's a national TV game YEP on ESPN. So I
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: think Michigan State, I just don't see. If you're in
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, how do you really get excited for San
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Jose State. You know, after you won that huge game
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: on Saturday and then now and you have this next
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: game up on Tuesday, which is a much much bigger
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: game as well. I think they're gonna look past. San
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Jose State. Might be a situation where they just get in,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: get out. They're not gonna care about covering a big number.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: San Jose State has actually played decent opponents on the
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: road at Utah and Santa Barbara. You see Santa Barbara,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: and they played pretty respectably. They lost by nine to
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Utah and eleven UCSB. That's not bad. They were an
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: underdog in both those games. Obviously they played pretty well. Yeah,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: you could argue that, well, that means they're gonna be
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: tired or something because they're coming off performing well as
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: an underdog. But I mean, I think the number in
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: the UCSB game was right around eight or nine, so
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: they were that's where the final score was. It wasn't
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: like they were that close to winning the game. If
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: you look at how the game played out, they were
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: kind of hanged. They were down by like double digits
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: like late in the game. So it wasn't a game
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: where they thought they were gonna win. It wasn't close. Yeah.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Now they do have to travel to a different time zone.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: This will be their first time doing that. But if
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you look at Santa State schedule, this is a meaningful game, man,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: because besides Utah, who they already played, they have no
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: other Power conference team on their entire schedule this year,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I don't believe. And Michigan State is gonna be their
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: only ranked opponent that they play every year, so this
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: that they play this year, I mean, this is a
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: big game for San Jose State. Man, they're gonna try
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: to step it up. They do play Stanford, actually my mistake.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: So Stanford is in the mix as an ACC team,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: but this is the biggest game on their schedule. Man,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: it's Michigan State, it's tom is a huge name. They're
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: a ranked team, They're in one of the upper echelon
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: conferences in the Big Ten. I think San Jose State
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: is gonna be up for this game and they're gonna
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: play well, that would be my guest. So I like
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: them to get within this number. Probably too long of
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: an analysis there, but it's juiced, dude. This is why
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: you need more more books than just FanDuel, because fuck
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: FanDuel for juicing that. Like, I'm sure that you can
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: find twenty four and a half at like other books,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know in Massachusetts we have like six
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: or seven now, and like you could definitely see it
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: a little while ago at least. If not, I would
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: just play plus twenty four or something at a different book,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Like I would not lay that extra juice just for
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the difference between twenty four and twenty four and a half.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: It's just there's no reason to do it. Like there's
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: almost no difference between those numbers. On next up, we
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: are going to take the points with Purdue plus the
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: four here against Alabama. This is like probably this is
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the biggest game tonight and it's not even on ESPN.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: It's on ESPN two. I don't know what ESPN has,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: but this is on ESPN two. ESPN actually might have
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: the college football game instead of this. Purdue is ranked
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: second in the country and probably rightfully so. I think
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: well ken Bum has some seventh, but his rank user
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: is shifting around quite a bit. I do think that
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the top teams are Houston, Purdue, maybe Duke still right now,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: that would be my That's the way that I kind
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: of analyze it right now. Maybe you con is kind
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: of in the mix to Purdue is really good. I
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: think Alabama is taking a little bit of a step
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: back this year. They're still good, They're still well coached.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: He's got Alabama, excuse me, Alabama's eighth in the country
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: according to the rankings makers. Ken Bum, however, has them nineteenth.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: So basically, ken Bum is saying that the rankings makers
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: are actually overrating both teams. I believe, right, I forget
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: what the rankings are right now. Let me see, Yeah,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: they're overrating both teams, and I think Purdue is being
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: less overrated. Like ken Bum has Alabama like not really
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: that close to the top ten right now. And you
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: know me, I don't love Alabama just because they're one
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: of those fast teams that doesn't particularly play deepense, and
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: they're playing that type of style again, even though their
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: offense is good. But interestingly, Purdue has the number one
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: most efficient offense so far this season. Their depense has
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: actually been a little bit worse at forty fourth, So
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: just somebody to keep in mind. This will be a
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: contrast of styles. And yes, I know I do talk
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: about how the home team usually controls the pace, and
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: that would mean Alabama will be speeding this game up.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: But it is easier to slow the game down, Like
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: if you're purdueing, you're on offense. There's there's only so
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: much that Alabama can do, right, Like you can still
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: hang onto the ball and slow the game down. So
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Purdue very slow paced team at three hundred twenty fourth
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: and tempo. It's a contrast and styles. They're gonna try
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: to slow the pace down. You're giving me the slower
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: paced team though, as which is Purdue getting points? I
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: kind of want to look that way, but I'm also
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: gonna look at this situation here. By the way, Alabama
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: also is above purdueing the Luck Index, although they're both
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: in the top sixty in luck. But just another thing
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: to notice, Purdue has not faced a difficult schedule yet,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: so yes, I get it, Alabama is more battle tested
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: right now. But that's actually the reason I'm gonna go
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: against them here, even though they are at home here.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Alabama just beat Saint John's Man, they just went on
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: the road to Madison Square Garden. They beat Rick Patino.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Saint John's was a top ten ranked team. Alabama beat them,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: so I think they could be maybe. I know you
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: don't really have a letdown spot when you're playing Purdue,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: but I still think this is difficult to come off
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: this game. Man and Saint John's turned the ball over
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: too much, and that was kind of the reason why
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: they want to lose. In the game, I thought they
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: were potentially gonna win that game. Shooting was pretty close
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: between both teams. The turnovers I think kind of did
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Saint John's in. Usually you don't see the home team
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: or semi home team lose the turnover battle like that. Now, yeah,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Alabama's coming off of that, I think they're a little
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: bit lesser of a team this year. Purdue, I think
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of something to prove this
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: year after our last year not being as good. Purdue
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: also has some of the best continuity in college basketball
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: because they they brought back like all of their guards
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: from last year. So Purdue has they're one of the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: few teams that are at the very top of the
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: rankings that have all these guys coming back from last year,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: like all their best players are basically back. Of course,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: we know that they took a step down last year.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: They didn't have Zach Eedy anymore. But they didn't have
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: him last year, they don't have him this year. This
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a big game for Purdue, man, their
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: first big game on the schedule. But part of the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: reason I like Purdue is because they had a lackluster
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: game in their last game against Oakland, and I think
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Purdue was looking ahead to this. Purdue was a thirty
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite, and they were never
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: really in danger of losing this game, but it was
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: pretty close, and they only won by ten, and the
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: game was within like a couple of possessions. Pretty late
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: in the game, they're only up four to six five
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: with like six minutes left in the game. So Purdue
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: knows they didn't play well. I think they realized they
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: escaped in this game. So I think they're gonna actually
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: have more focus here. I think they probably got caught
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Alabama here. They just didn't really show
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: up for Oakland. So I like the situation for Purdue here. Man,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I think you're you're gonna get a better effort out
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: of them here. I know it's their first true road game,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: and normally I don't want to go with a team
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: in that situation, but I think it sets up better
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: for Purdue. I think they're legitimately the better of the
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: two teams right now now, and Alabama again, they're coming
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: off a much much bigger win, So we're gonna take
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the points of Purdue here. Alabama did initially go up
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: from one to three and a half on the number here,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: which seems a little high. I mean again, they do
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: get home field home court advantage obviously, which is probably
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: three to four points in college basketball in a situation
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: like this, But ken bum as Purdue is the better team,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: so I think this line is getting a little bit
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: too high. Ninety percent of the tickets only eighty five
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Alabama, So I know it's
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: a situation where the lower ranked team is favored, and
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: I tend to say you want to look towards the
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: lower ranked team when they're a favorite, because it's going
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: to throw the public perception off. That's not the case here.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: The public looks like they like Alabama right now, which
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't surprise me because Alabama, they just score a ton
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: that's their Mo. So the public likes that, and they
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: don't like a team like Purdue that plays ugly slow basketball,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: even if Purdue's offense is very efficient, which they are.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: We'll take plus the points there, okay, and then what
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: else we have left I will point out on the
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: slate here we do have a New Jersey battle between
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Monmouth and Seaton Hall Seton Hall. They're just down the
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: last couple of years, and they play really really slow.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: They get themselves locked into a lot of close games.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: And Monmouth is also in New Jersey, so this is
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: a an in state little brother situation. I think they
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: play each other every year, but Monmouth does like step
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: up their game when they play Seaton Hall because it's
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: a big East team, a bigger brother in New Jersey.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Seton Hall up from thirteen to fourteen with juice here.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: But I would take the points with Monmouth if I
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: was gonna do it, even though Seaton Hall, well, I
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: was gonna say. They came off that ugly game against Wagner,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: but they bounced back by blowing out Fairfield, so they
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: could be in another spot where maybe they won't play
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: as well here all right, U mass Lowell, My boys
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: up in you mass Lowell are coming off just a
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: hideous loss to New Haven, newcomer to newcomer to a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: division one man and new even stepped up their game.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: I'm sure for another team that's in New England, U
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: mass Lowell, they just fall like so silent from offense
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: sometimes from the field. U mass Lowell was winning that game.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: They were like a ten to ten to that point
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. They were up by about that
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: margin in the second half, and they completely just stopped scoring.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: They just felt completely silent in the game. Ridiculous and
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: they wound up losing the game. So you've got to
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: think that they're gonna be pissed after losing as a
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: favorite like that, even though they kind of sucked. They've
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: been one of the better teams in the American East
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: basically since they've been in the conference, although this year
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: not looking good so far. The one of their losses
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: is to Yukon, but it was an embarrassing loss. They
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: didn't even they were completely non competitive against Yukon, So
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: maybe not a good sign, but you got to expect
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: they're gonna bounce back from such a horrendous loss. They've
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: already played a road game this year. I believe they're
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: going back out on the road here. Columbia play Yukon
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: a lot closer. Colombia is better than U mass Lowell,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna say that. But if you look
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: at Colombia's a schedule here, they've played the same opponents
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: they played at New Haven and they beat them by eighteen,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the same new Haven team that went to UMass Lowell
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: and beat them. And Colombia played way better against Yukon,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: only losing by twenty seven to Yukon, wherres U mass
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Lowell lost by like almost forty to them. So if
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the public's looking at this game, they're gonna say this
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: is so easy, like Colombia did way better against both
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: of the common opponents. Colombia is obviously the right way
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to go here. I kind of don't think so, though
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Colombia is favored by a lot, like I didn't think
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: they would be favor I knew they would be favored,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: but I adn't think they I did not think they
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: would be favored by this much. And the line's actually
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: moving up on them from eleven and a half to
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half. With juice, I would not go
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: that way. I would actually take the points of the
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: UMass Lowell, but I mean it's not something that I love.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: My last play is one that I do kind of
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: like we're gonna go with grambling or grambling stay in.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: On the money line, I found it at minus one ten.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: If you have to lay, you can lay like minus
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: one on this or whatever minus one and a half.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: But I actually I've pointed out that in college basketball
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: specifically because I've listened to some professionals talk about this.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I think Bill Krackenberger has talked about this and some
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: other guys that really know what they're doing in college basketball.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: It's actually better long term, more of an advantage long
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: term if you play the money line, specifically on college
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: basketball favorites that are one, one and a half or two.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: I think once it gets above two, you shift to
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: laying the number with the spread, but like if it's one,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: one and a half or two, you want to look
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: to actually lay the money line instead. So I did
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: start doing that a bit last year. Though of course
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: I had a bad college basketball season last year, so
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: do what you will with that. But obviously I found
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: a pretty short money line here, which is literally just
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: to pick them price on Grambling at minus one ten.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm going with here. I'm not gonna
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: like knock you if you want to lay minus one
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: or something like that with Grambling, though you get a
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of a smaller price. The crux of this
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: is that they're playing Southern Miss, and while I know
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss is the better team, uh, the oddsmakers are
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: telling you they're not that much better. Southern Miss pretty
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: bad actually in the Ken Bombs rank is at two
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: forty sixth right now. They're kind of a mid tempo team.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: They're not very good defensively. They're in like the bottom
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: one hundred. Defensively, Grambling isn't good either. Gramblings even worse
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: at two ninety second. I get it. I know they're
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: way high in the Luck Index at fourteenth, but they
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: are more battle tested actually with a sixty third strength
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: to schedule, which doesn't make sense because Southern Miss. The
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: reason why I'm going to fade them is because they're
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: coming off a huge like a huge game where I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be deflated after it. But it's this
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: says Grambling has actually faced the more difficult schedule, which
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: I'll look at in a minute, Grambling is actually kind
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: of in line with Southern Miss defensively. At least, they're
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: actually the better defensive team Grambling is. Grambling is just
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: terrible off right now. Grambling first, they're in the Swack.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: The Swack is awful. Grambling plays a bit slower than
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss too. Southern Miss more of a mid tempo team,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: so Grambling might be able to slow them down to Grambling.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they are a team that's
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: necessarily going to be intimidated. I mean, they've been a
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: decent team in their horrible conference last couple of years.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I think they won it last year and they made
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: the tournament. I think they actually won their playing game
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: in the tournament last year, if I'm not mistaken, as well,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: and got the honor of losing to a one seed.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: But the reason I'm doing this look at Southern Miss
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: right now, man. I mean, yes, they've looked pretty decent
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: so far. They played Buffalo to within six, but Buffalo
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: is only a three and a half point favorite in
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: that one, so of Buffalo not really considered to be
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: that good this year. And then Southern Miss in their
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: last game, they had their biggest game on their schedule
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: pretty much, although they do well. They do face Miami
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: and then LSU, but those are down basketball programs, so
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I mean, this was an SEC team.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: They just faced South Carolina, even though they're one of
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: the lower tier SEC teams. This is a huge game
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: for Southern Miss. Seventeen and a half point underdogs, and
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss took them right to the limit. Man, Southern
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Miss had the lead in this game late and took
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: them into overtime in this game and then fell short
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: and lost. I don't know how you get back up
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: off the mat after that, man, that could have been
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: a huge statement win for Southern Miss. Beating an SEC
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: team on the road like that would have been crazy.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: They had the game too. After South Carolina was looking
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: like they were gonna run away with the game or early.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss retook the lead in the second half and
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: then built the lead up to the point where they
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: were winning by almost double digits with not that long ago.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: They were up nine with under four minutes to go,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: and they still they blew it. They retook the lead.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, they yeah, they blew it. They retook the
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: lead late in the game. And went into overtime eventually,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: and then they took the lead early in overtime, and
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: then they still lost. I mean, you know what I'm saying.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: A team that's a huge underdog like this in a
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: huge game and they actually not only have the chance,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: but they're in good position to pull off like a
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: major upset for their program like this, and then they
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: fall short. Or even if they pull off the upset,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: either way, I think after that effort, you're gonna be
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: just like so fatigued after that. I just don't see
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: how you get up for your next game. South Carolina
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: was pretty bad in this game, by the way, for
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a bunch of reasons. Even though I know they lost
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the rebound battle, and the rebound battle is more of
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: a predictable metrics that doesn't look good for South Carolina.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: But South Carolina lost the turnover battle at home, so
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: that's part of the reason why they almost lost the game.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: They also didn't shoot well thirty nine point one percent
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: from the field of the Southern miss was bad from
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: three point range twenty two point seven. But I think
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the turnovers had something to do with it. Usually you
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: don't see the turnovers. You don't see that many turnovers
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: from the home team usually or that few from the
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: road team. I think Southern Miss is gonna be totally
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: hung over after that game. Then. I just don't see
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: how they get back up after that second straight road game. Now, yeah,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I don't like it for them. Grambling. The reason why
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: they're they have a tougher straight the schedules because they
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: play at Iowa State on the road, and yes, they
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: got blown out in that game, but they bounced back.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: They got a Division One win on the road at
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Howard in their last game. Grambling actually pulled out an
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: upset in that game, a minor upset of four and
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: a half points. So I don't think it's anything that's
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: gonna like hang Grambling over or anything like that. I
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: know Grambley shot really well in the game, but Howard
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: actually did as well, so the game wasn't really like
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: a statistical outlier just because both teams shot like excessively
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: well in the game. Grambling back home here, this is
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: actually gonna be their first home game against the Division
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: one opponent here, so I think they're gonna be up
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: for it. I think, yeah, they're gonna be excited for
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: this game. Southern Miss terrible spot for them. We're gonna
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: go with Grambling. You could have gotten Grambling as a
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: two point underdog, I guess at the open, but they
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: flipped to a one point favorite. Like I said, it
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: looks like it's kind of one and a half at
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: some places. Again, I would probably play the money line.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming you can get the money line up to
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: minus like probably around minus one twenty at the worst.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Grambling, I liked that minus one o eight
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: all right on the money line, all right, hell yeah,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I liked that one classic hangover spot in
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: my opinion for Southern myss there. And then as far
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: as what else we have today, I mean, not a
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: whole lot else going on. We have Loyola at Wichita State,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Loyola coming up that pretty tough loss to North Texas
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: or I thought Loyola would bounce back from that Mercy
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Hearst game, and they did. I mean, they played well
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: against North Texas, which, by the way, if you saw
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: what happened in North Texas last night, they had Oregon
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: State beat like North Texas had a one point lead
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: in the final seconds and they tried to call it
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: time out when they were out of timeouts, which is
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: a technical foul and Oregon State one on technical free
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: throws because North Texas tried to call it time out
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: when they didn't have any left. Like that's it's that's insane,
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Like when do you ever see a team lose a
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: game on that. That's what happened in North Texas last night.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: That's insane. I don't know what else to say about it,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: But I don't know how North Texas will respond to
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: that in their next game, whenever it's gonna be. But Loyola,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, they could be a little bit hung over
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: after that game. First true road game for Loyola going
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: to Wichita. Wichita, I mean they're two and oh, but
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: they haven't played any good opponents yet. They beat unc Asheville,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: who I think is down this year. They're typically really
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: good in the Big South at least, but I don't
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: think they're very good. And Prairie View A and M
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: is terrible, So Wichita this will actually be a step
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: up in class for them facing Loyola. Although Wichita is
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: a five point favorite, although they drop from a six
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: point favorite, sixty seven percent of tickets on Wichita, seventy
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash coming back in on Loyola.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I agree that maybe Wichita shouldn't be favored to this extent.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Their two and oh record is completely meaningless. So Loyola
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: is definitely facing the more difficult schedule, but only because
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: they faced North Texas and I think they could be
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit hung over because that was a big game.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: So I don't really love the market read on that one.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: Like I don't think I would want to take the
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: points of Loyola in that game. I would, I mean,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say I don't. I don't want
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: to say I would lay the points either with which
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: and Toad, But if you forced me to lean, I
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: might lean that way. And then we do have a
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: LSU's playing FIU, I mean not fau F. I U
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: not as good LSU. They played basically nobody so far.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: They did beat down that New Orleans team that actually
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: pulled off an upset of TCU, although I think that
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: was more of a fluke. I don't think New Orleans
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: is that good of the New Orleans. By the way,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: the reason why New Orleans was so bad last year
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: is because they were involved in a gambling scandal where
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: their players were intentionally throwing games to win money in gambling,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: so those players are not there anymore for New Orleans,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: that was one of the storylines that came out pretty
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: ridiculous LSU. I mean, I guess it's a satisfying win
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: for LSU to beat a little brother in the state
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: of Louisiana that was involved in scandals. So LSU probably
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: pretty satisfied off of that win. So I don't really
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: expect them to show up with as much intensity here
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: against FA FIU. FIU just lost pretty bad that in Nebraska.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I would probably lean towards taking
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the points with FIU, but I mean it's LSU is
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: better even though they're not good. They're from down for
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: twenty one and out to twenty one on the line there.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: I would probably take the points, but not something I'm
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: interested in with FIU there. LSU they aren an SEC
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: team as well, so FIU probably will be excited to
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: try to play that game. But LSU is definitely one
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: of the more beatable SEC teams for these non for
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: these lower conferences here, LSU one of the lower teams
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: in the SEC along with South Carolina, and then we
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: do have an ACC versus Big Twelve game at nine
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: pm on CBS Sports. We get Cal at Kansas State.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Cal one of their best players transferred away from last year,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: which is Stoyakovitch. I forget his first name. I think
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: he's Paiga's son and he is now with Where is
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: he at now? I forget where he's at. Now, he's
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: with one of the bigger conference teams. Now. I think
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: he's on a team that I think he's on Illinois,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: because I was gonna say I think he was on
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: a team that won for me the other day, or
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: at least pushed for us on the show. Yeah, I
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: think he's on Illinois now, So CAL did lose him.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Cal's off to a three and oh start, but they
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: haven't really been tested yet. Now they have to go
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: on the road leave the Pacific Times though for the
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: first time this year. They haven't played any game outside
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: of home yet. Looks like a difficult spot to me
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: for Cal. K State is also off to a two
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: and oh start. They haven't really beaten anybody great either.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: You und see Greensboro has been a decent team recently,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: but I think they're down this year, and it seems
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: like Kansas State actually plays un see Greensboro every year.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, I think they played them last
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: year at least, which is weird. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: I mean you would see Greensboro looks like they're nowhere
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: near as good as they were last year. So nothing
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: to really take away from either team's record so far,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: but the fact that cal is having to go out
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: on the road I would probably lean towards Kansas State here,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: although they're down from six and a half to five
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: and a half here, seventy five percent tickets only fifty
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash, so the money is disagreeing
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: with me on that one. But I wouldn't want to
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: take the points of calm Man in a spot where
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: they're having to go to an unfamiliar, hostile environment in
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. Their crowd is probably gonna show up for
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: that because it's their first big home game that they
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: have this year. So those are my thoughts on the
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: rest of the college basketball there. We got a bunch
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: of hockey. I only have one play. I've narrowed it
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: down to one play. We got Kings at Toronto Toronto.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: I think they're better than this eight to eight and
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: one record makes them look they're on a three game
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: skid here where twice they lost to my Boston Bruins,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: and I'm repping all local teams today. As you can see,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: I'll explain the Patriot jersey once we get to the
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Toronto also lost to Carolina in there.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't I wouldn't knock Toronto too much
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: for any of those losses. I mean, it just seems
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: like they just don't do well against the Bruins. The
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Bruins just tend to kind of out physical Toronto and
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: they just play a style that Toronto doesn't like. Carolina
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Toronto played them pretty respectably. Toronto, we got to see
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Stolars by the way, because Hill
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Deeby has been their goalie the last two games. It
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: looks like he is actually hurt. He's day to day,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: so got to see if he's gonna come back for
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: this game or not, because I think if he's back,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: that will help Toronto if they're primary goaltenders back here.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: They're coming back home from that loss to Boston. It
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: looks like a bounce back spot to me for Toronto.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Here for the Kings, they're on the road. They just
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: won in Montreal five to one, so they got to
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: be feeling pretty good about themselves because Montreal pretty good
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: record this year. They got Auto one Washington up next,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: and those teams have better records as well, so it's
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: possible they kind of overlook Toronto a little bit here.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Toronto in this one. I mean,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: it's not a strong opinion. The money seems to disagree
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: with LA up for minus one eighteen to minus one
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: to twenty. Do they deserve to be that much of
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: a road favorite here? I'm not so sure. Osmakers are
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: telling you they're the better team. I won't really disagree
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: with that, but I don't know. To me, it looks
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: like there's a little bit of line value on Toronto,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: and I think the spot is better for them seventy
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets ninety eight percent of the cash
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: on LA, I will disagree with that. I would probably
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: look towards grabbing Toronto as a home underdog. Dallas at
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Montreal actually one of the better games tonight. Dallas just
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: won an overtime against Ottawa. That was a pretty big game.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: They did have auten during net for that one. They're
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: probably gonna use Ottinger again here because he had the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: day the game off, the game prior to that. They're
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: going to Montreal. I think this will be another big game.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Dallas will have to keep up that level of intensity
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: two games in a row here, Although I expect them
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: to show up Montreal obviously expect them to show up
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: as well. They just I mean, they got obliterated by
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: the Kings in their last game. Like I said, so,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bounce back spot from Montreal here.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: If you look at the stats in that game, Montreal
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: was way more physical than LA twenty one to ten
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: and hits. Montreal did get outshot and slightly out face off,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: but the game was not as lopsided as a score
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: made it look, which usually is the case. And there
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: was an empty net goal in the game as well
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: to make it look a little bit worse. So I
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: expect Montreal to kind of bounce back here. I would
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: lean to Montreal in this game. They did flip from
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: plus one oh eight to minus one to fifteen. Favorite
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: there were an underdog, so the favorite flipped in this game.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Even though we see fifty percent of tickets sixty four
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Dallas by the time the
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: game tips off, faces off, whatever you want to call it.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if the market will still look that
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: way because the initial money money line move was on Montreal,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: and my situational read does lean towards Montreal slightly. Oh so,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: because Matthews isn't playing all right, good to know, sab,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: thank you. I don't know how much that affects the
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: line though, because again, in hockey, even if he is
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: as good as mattheuse, Matthews is obviously Toronto's best player.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: He's one of the best players in the NHL, like
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: one of the best pure scores in the NHL. But
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: how much does that really affect a line in hockey
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: because hockey is not really as much of an individual
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: sport really, even though yeah, when he's out there, he
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: definitely affects the game. But hockey, I mean you're rolling
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: out like four different lines of players. So as far
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: as like the amount of minutes your best player gets
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: in hockey, it's significantly less than in some other sports.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Or like obviously in football, the quarterback matters a ton
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: because he's out there literally he's like, you know, dictating
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the offense literally every single play. Basketball it's five on five.
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: So in basketball, like the individual could just take over
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: a game in basketball much more so as well, and
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: in baseball the starting pitcher has more of an effect
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: than any individual player, but in hockey, one individual doesn't
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: have as much of an effect. You're on the leafs.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: You like it? Injured player theory? Yeah, Also that does
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: kind of add to Toronto a little bit there where
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: Toronto they'll kind of have that mental thing probably where
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: if they know their star player is out, they might
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: get up for the game a little bit more. So.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: That's that is good to know. I don't usually even
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: talk about injured player theory in hockey though, because I
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: just don't think it has too much of an impact.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: But you're right, I think it will have a slight
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: impact there. I don't disagree with you on that you
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: think Dallas is a fraud. I agree with you on Montreal.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think that Dallas is really a fraud though
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: I think they're good, and I'm not sure Montreal is
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: quite as good as the record looks either, But for
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: the spot, I agree with Montreal in that one. I
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: don't know what are wetire Oh, the five of the
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: last six wins, yet Dallas came from behind. That's similar
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Buccaneers it's way worse
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: because the Buccaneers they were losing in the final minute
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: eight of four of their wins in hockey. I mean,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: being behind in hockey could mean you're behind by one goal,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like, that's that's in hockey.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: That's a deficit. That could be a race at any moment.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit different. All right. We do
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: have my Boston Bruins are going to Ottawa. The Bruins
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: on a nice hot streak right now. I did say
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: that I did not think the Bruins would finish dead
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: last in the division. Which were the odds on the
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Bruins were. The Bruins had had the worst odds to
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: win the Atlantic Division coming into the season. They were
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred and ten to one to win the division.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I thought the Bruins wouldn't be very good, But I'm like,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: they're not that bad, Like, come on, they're not the
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: worst team in the division. I think I'm being proven correct,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: although the odds makers still don't really think the Bruins
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: are very good, but they have won seven games in
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: a row. So they're playing pretty well right now. But
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: they did just beat Ottawa to get revenge on Ottawa.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: They beat them at home in overtime. Now they're going
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: back out on the road were last time they played
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: here they did lose seven to two. So is it
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for Ottawa because the Bruins beat them
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: last time out? Maybe, but the teams are one to
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: one against each other. They don't like each other, so
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna show up for this.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Bruins starting a little bit of a road trip here
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: with momentum, so I think it's a fine spot for
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: the Bruins here. Did have some rest prior to that
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: other win against Toronto, so don't know if it will
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: be swaying in a net again, but we will see Ottawa.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I mean Ottawa was playing a lot of close games.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: I think Outawa was still a pretty decent team, even
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: though they actually have more losses than wins if you
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: include all the overtime losses. Outowa was in kind of
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: a tough spot though, because I think they did get
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: up for that game against Dallas that they played on Tuesday.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: They're not traveling anywhere, but they took a loss in
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: that game, and I think they played tough in that game.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: They're gonna play tough again in this game against Boston,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: like they'll show up all should be back in net
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: again because Mari lane and played in the previous game
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: against Utah. But I think it's a more difficult spot
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: for Ottawa. So I actually like the Bruins in this game.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Ottawa pretty big favorite, up from minus one sixty five
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: to minus one sixty nine, which that does worry me
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: about the Bruins because when you see it, like the
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Bruins actually have the better looking record, so the public
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: might think, well, why are they a big underdog here?
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: Then I think that there's value taking the Bruins as
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: an underdog. But I think the Bruins are in the
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: slightly better spot. I actually think maybe they are being
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit disrespected in the market and being undervalued.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know if Ottawa does deserve to be
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: this big of a favorite. It's hard to gauge some
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: of these hockey teams sometimes because sometimes teams are just
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: they come from out of nowhere, Like the Bruins definitely
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: underperformed their talent level last year. I will say that
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: even though they're not a very deep team, and that's
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: kind of their problem. Like they're definitely front loaded. They
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: have some really good stars at the top of their
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: roster and then the guys behind that. It's all gonna
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: depend on if they pick up their or not. Fifty
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: ticket seventy five percent of cash coming in on the Bruins.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Bruins. The other
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: thing I will say is that Swayman had a bad
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: year last year because I think of all the contract
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: stuff that was going on. But now we know that
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: he's the guy. He's signed to a contract, so I
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: think Swayman, he's in line to have a better season
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: this year than last year. So yeah, I would lean
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: to taking the points of cash seemingly agree with the
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Bruins or taking the Bruins of the money line underdog
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, but not gonna be one of my plays.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Oh they've come back from being down two, uh and
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: o two comeback? I mean, it depends how late in
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: the game it is. Really like, if we're talking about
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Dallas coming back from multiple like multi score like deficits
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: in the third period, then that then that would be
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: more of a thing. I think that was one of
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the games. I guess according to sab Ottawa was winning
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: against Dallas two and to nothing. But I think that's
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: kind of a deflating loss, because if you're beating a
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: team like Dallas two to nothing and you lose in overtime,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: I think that can deflate you a little bit. I
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't really agree with Auto on that game.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Hopefully I'm right as a Bruins fan. But Yahoo, Yeah,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't put much weight. I don't even
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: look at Yahoo at all. I just I mean, I
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: hate Yaho is a website. I don't trust what numbers
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: they're putting out there. Don't trust any of it at all.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Don't like their fantasy UI either. You think that's a
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: trap because they've won seven in a roun, they have
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: big hots. Well, I did mention that they have the
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: better record. I just the spot to me doesn't look
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: good for Autaw to me. All right, anah, I'm at Detroit.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Actually this is my play. Should I just give it
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: out now because I started talking about it. Yeah, let's
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: do it. We're gonna be on Detroit money line here.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot to play. Detroit Finally,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I think we're in a position where we start fading
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Anaheim and Anaheim even though I know they ran through
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: all these good teams, man, and they looked good. But
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I think Anaheim is gonna go on a little bit
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: of a slide here, man, because Anaheim, they just had
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: a long win streak. They hadn't lost. In Saturday, October
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, they'd won seven games in a row. They
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: took a loss at Colorado, which is one of the
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: best teams in the NHL in elevation, and that ended
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: their win streak. And I talk about this. When a
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: team loses a win streak like that and they haven't
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: lost in forever, sometimes it hangs them over into the
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: next game, man. So I think that might be the case.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, Colorado is a team you get up for emotionally,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: and Anaheim is running through a bunch of good teams.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: I get it. You gotta respect the fact that they
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: beat basically all good teams during that run. But still
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: I think that this is gonna be a spot that
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: hangs them over into the next game. Here. They're gonna
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: go out of elevation now into Detroit, who, by the way,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: during their run, they beat Detroit in Anaheim five to two,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: So I think Detroit is gonna be a little bit
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: more focused on this game for that reason, a little
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: bit of quick revenge, which that's a spot that does
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: work well in the early NHL. A team that actually
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: a team that lost on the road when they then
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: play that team and their money line home favorite, that
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: that's actually a good a good situation. There's like a
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: good it's a good angle to use in the NHL.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: So we have Detroit in that angle here and Detroit.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: I think Detroit. The osmakers are telling you that there's
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: not as much of a discrepancy between these two teams,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: even though Detroit's nine and seven and Anaheim is whatever
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: eleven to four and whatever eleven four and one. The
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: osmakers have Detroit up from minus one twenty to minus
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: one thirty now here, so they're basically getting pretty much
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: The osbangers are pretty much telling you these teams are even,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: but you wouldn't know it based on the record. So
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: I think the publics can have a tendency to think, oh, well,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Anaheim lost to a really good Colorado team on the road.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's certainly gonna bounce back and you're getting them as
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: an underdog here as the team with a better record.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: But again I would say that that's not the way
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: to look at this game. I think that is kind
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: of looking like almost a trap. Fifty percent of the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: tickets are on Anaheim, fifty nine percent of the casual Detroit.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: I think the real money is indeed on Detroit here.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: And for Detroit, I think they're gonna be even more
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: focused because they're on a three game slide where they've
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: only scored two goals across those three games. They're not
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: as bad as this, and we can look and try
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: to explain some of those losses, which one of them
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: was a game I gave out on the show The
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: New York Rangers, of course, a road game for the
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: New York Rangers. Of course I gave them out and
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: they won. Detroit was in a return home spot in
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: that game, and I talk about how bad that sometimes is,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: that you just tend to get distracted when you return home.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: They were coming off a one to zero loss to
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Vegas in a tough game. I thought they would be
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: distracted having to get back to home life. The Rangers
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: weren't playing well, and Detroit did have Chicago up next,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: so as a good record and that's an original six battle,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: so I thought it was a really bad spot for Detroit.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: So I got that one right on the show. I
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: think that's how you can explain Detroit losing to the
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Rangers pretty explainable. Then Detroit did lose to Chicago in
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: their last game, which is a lot harder to explain
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: because Detroit was a home favorite. But now Detroit sitting
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: at home and they've lost both games on the home
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: stand after they didn't play well in the return home spot.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Usually the team bounces back in the next game. They didn't,
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: but now they've had multiple days off, they've been off
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: since Sunday, and off of that ugly five to one
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: lost to Chicago is a favorite. Detroit was a big favorite.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: They're probably around minus one ninety. I would guess you
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: gotta think they're gonna bounce back here in this one, man,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna get up for a team that has
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: a good record like Anheim. Yet Detroit was minus one
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: eighty five according to ESPN bet on the Close. But
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: this game wasn't as crazy as it really looked, man.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was two to one into the third period,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: and then per Tuesday, who was on the Red Sox
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: on the Bruins for a little while, scored boo. Then
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: Colorado excuse in Chicago actually got an empty net goal
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: and things were just out of control at that point.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: And then Chicago put in an a completely unnecessary goal
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: at the end too, So the game was closer than
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the final made it look. Detroit outshot Chicago in this
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: game forty six to twenty, and they won the face
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: off battle and they had more hits. So I know,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: sometimes when you're losing, you're gonna get into desperation mode,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: but when it's two to one into the third period,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: you're not really firing that many desperations shots. So it's
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: ridiculous that Chicago is able to win this game five
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: to one getting out shot like that. So Detroit they
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: were nowhere near as bad as it looked on the
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: scoreboard there. They actually debatably outplayed Chicago in the game.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: So I think Detroit is under the radar right now.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: I think it's a hangover spot for Anaheim. I like Detroit.
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: That's gonna be the play there. That's my only hockey
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: play of the day, and that's the last play of
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the day actually for the show yep ugly losses Iserman. Yeah,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: his plan, the iSER plan, whatever the plan may be,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the situational spot and that when the
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: situation will read. Washington at Florida is a pretty big
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: game here as well, Washington. I still think both these
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: teams are pretty solid, even though they're both eight seven
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: and one. Washington kind of busted their losing not losing
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: streak necessary, but they had lost six of seven. They
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: busted it by beating Carolina, which I believe I gave
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: that one out on the show too, Washington beating Carolina.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: But they could be in a bit of a let
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: down spot after that, because that's a big win. Man,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: you go in on the road, you beat Carolina, was
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: one of the best teams in your conference. Carolina. Did
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I give that out? I don't remember if I did.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe I didn't. I thought they were returning home from
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but they were coming off one game
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: or they went up to Toronto. I forget if I
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: give that out as a player or not. Maybe I didn't,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: But Washington could be in a let down spot off
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: of that. Although are they going to really be in
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot? When they're playing Florida for the first
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: time of the season. Like Washington, who do they lose
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: to last year? About that who eliminated them? I forget.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was Florida though, No, it was Carolina. Oh, yes,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: that was an even bigger game. I think I did
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: give that out then. Yeah, that was one of my
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: plays because one of the big things about that was
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: that was playoff revenge for Washington because Carolina was a
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: team that eliminated them. So that was a huge win
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: for Washington. But are they gonna be in a total
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: letdown when they're facing the returning champs Florida for the
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: first time this year? Maybe not. I mean, it's not
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: a spot where I really want to be on Washington
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: though Florida. They're coming in off beating Vegas and returning
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip though, so the spot does
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: look pretty bad for Florida. They went out to the
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast. They've been away since last Tuesday. I always
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: talk about this. You return over from a road trip,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: sometimes you lack focus. They do have Tampa Bay up
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: next to which I think is a bigger game because
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: those teams just don't like each other in the state
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: of Florida, and they finished the road trip with a
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: win over Vegas. Florida did that was a pretty big
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: win on the road there, which I think I gave
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: that one out on the show too, if I'm not mistaken.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not like trying to you know, tout myself or anything,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: but I believe that was one of my wins on
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: the show. H No, I think it was the other one. Actually,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: it was the home game, my mistake on October twenty fifth.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: That's the one that I gave out with Florida, the
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: three to zero win against Vegas. So my mistake. But anyway,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Florida returning over from a road trip could be in
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot, could be a
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot too, So I think the spot's actually
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: worse for Florida having to you know, do stuff back
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: at home after a long time away. I'm gonna agree
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: with the market here and lean towards Washington, but I
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: really don't like it because I just don't want anything
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: to do with Washington off of that huge win over Carolina.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: But I do think the spot for Florida is even worse.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Florida down for minus one thirty five to nine seventy
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets on them, sixty three percent
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Washington. You like Washington there as well. Yeah,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: it's not strong for me. It's a strong fade spot
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: for Florida, but I just think Washington's also in a
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: negative spot. So I can't do it Florida alternating wins
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: and losses, I guess. Yeah, I don't really put much
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: weight into that. But yeah, I would also kind of
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: lean to an over in this game, just because that's
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: when I see two teams that I think are in
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: disadvantageous spots. That's kind of my thought. But the line
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: has gone down a little bit. It's five and a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: half with less juice. But I'm gonna have to keep
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: an eye on these things where I think, oh, over
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: my big decent way to look here. I gotta look
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: at what I thought last night, because I think I
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: had one game that I thought was gonna be an
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: under last night. Which game was that I don't remember.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Was it Edmundon? I think it was the Edmonton game.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: I think I was right about that that was that
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: was an under and it went into overtime too. Yeah,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: I think I think I gave out an opinion on
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the on the under in that one, even though I
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: don't really know what I'm doing with total, So there
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: you go, and I really don't like unders and hockey
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: because of the empty net goals. Washington was one and six. Yeah,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: that's actually a good point, Saw. It makes a good
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: point that Washington just broke a bad loss streak with
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: that whim me being the streakbuster. They'd lost six of
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: their last seven, correct. Yeah, so that could be a
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: little bit of a new momentum starter. But I still
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: think that's such a huge win that I think it
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: sets up a little bit of a letdown scenario, although
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: again because it's Florida that can kind of mitigate the
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: let down a bit. So yes, I agree with Washington,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: but not as strongly as you. Hopefully we get it
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: right though. Edmonton is coming off that winning overtime. Like
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: I said of Philadelphia, I mean, not impressive at all.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: They played yesterday, and they're playing a third game in
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: four and as all in different cities, having to go
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: to Columbus, who they did just beat the game before
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: that in Edmonton in overtime, and they have Carolina up next.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: It is possible that Edmonton on a back to back.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: They're le likely have Pickered in Net year. They've lost
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: his last two games, and the game that they won
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: that he was in Net prior to that, they won
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: six to five, so he wasn't good there either, and
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: they lost his prior game to that too, So Edmonton
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: has not been very good with Picker to Net. I
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: think it's possible they overlook Columbus here and they might
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: look ahead to Carolina. Columbus might have a little bit
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: of revenge on their mind because they did just lose
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: to Edmonton. Columbus was off yesterday, but they're returning home
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. So that's the problem I have
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: with Columbus. They've been out away since Sunday, November two,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: where they actually went east to New York, and then
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: they went all the way to the Pacific Northwest for
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: a bunch of games. Now they're coming back home. Yeah,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: Edmonton might be a team that might alleviate their distraction
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: angle here because like I say, when you return home,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: you tend to be a bit distracted. I think you're
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: a bit tired too, plus the distraction of getting back
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: to home life. So I really I'm almost never gonna
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: play on a team returning home from a road trip.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: I'll just leave it alone. I think it's a bad
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: spot for both teams here the market, Reid says Columbus
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: at least right now, they're up from minus one of
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: four to minus one oh seven and Edmonton very public.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: It's only fifty seven percent of the cash. They're kind
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: of a dreaded public road underdog, which is something you
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: do want to look to fade. But I just can't
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: do it. Man. This is another one where I'm probably
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: saying you go over in this game, especially because Edmonton
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: just played an under. I actually like the over in
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: this one. I mean Edmonton probably pickered a net. Columbus
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: plays a ton of overs because their goalies just aren't
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: very good and they can score. We know Edmonton is
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: more of an offensive machine as well. I think over
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense in this game. The total
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: is high though, I mean it's six and a half.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: It's pretty much the highest you'll get, although we saw
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: one that was almost seven the other day, and I
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: think that game landed right on seven if I remember correctly.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: The one that I talked about the other day. We'll see, though,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: but I think over is the better way to play
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: that game. Don't have it as a play though, because
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: I just I don't want to. I don't I don't
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: want to like get my feet wet in totals again.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: Right now, it just seems a little bit iffy when
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I don't quite know what I'm doing. I like sides, man,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: It's pretty much what I do. I'm a side man. Uh.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: I was thinking about women's sides. Yeah, I like I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: like those obliques that the women have. But I was
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: also thinking sides like, yeah, man, just give me, like,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: give me the stuffing, the cranberry sauce, the mashed potatoes,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: and I won't have any of the turkey. No, there's
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: no way I would ever do that. But we're getting
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: we're getting into Thanksgiving time. Man, we're gonna start talking
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: about Thanksgiving. Of course, you know, I'll do a show
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving morning, probably to talk about the Thanksgiving games before
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: I have to leave and go to Thanksgiving. Dirty sock,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: what's up, man? I think last year I talked about
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving sides and what people think are the best sides
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: and desserts. We'll do that again when we get closer
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: to Thanksgiving. Maybe I'll start doing I've been thinking about
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: doing a Toad's Tears show or I just do tear
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: lists of whatever. I am actually killed by lightning. I
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: just started watching it last night. I watched the first episode.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: I'm sure that it's not totally historically accurate, but I
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: I was entertained by it. I enjoy it. Nick Offerman
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: is in it as Chester A Arthur, which is wild.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: I guess the dude who plays Garfield, it's Michael Shannon,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: right Garfield. He is definitely good. The dude I don't
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: really know the dud who plays Guito. I mean, I
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: guess he's a fairly good actor as well. I don't
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: know if Guiteau was really like that though, or if
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: they're like, are they like exaggerating it? I don't know.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: I mean I never was like a. I never disliked
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: Garfield though, like I dislike so many of the presidents,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: but he was one of those guys as you can
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: see from the show. I mean, it is true that
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: he didn't want to be president and he got pushed
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: into it. So I actually think that's better. When you
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: have a president that doesn't even want to do it,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: that kind of tells you they don't actually want that power.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, unless he was pretending that he didn't want it,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: but I think he legitimately didn't want it. So yeah, anyway, Buffalo.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: What I mean, Buffalo is playing on a back to
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: back here. They screw rude me last night. If you
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: want to call it that. They did have a bunch
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: of days off priority yesterday, which I thought helped them
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: out in the game last night. I shouldn't have added
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: it to my card. I'm mad about it. They lost badly.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: They had Ellis in net, which was also not great.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: Although they'd won. There were only other game that Els
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: played they won last night. I didn't know who their
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: goalie was gonna be for Buffalo. I just kind of
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: ignore it because they don't really have a goalie. I mean,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: I guess it's Lyon, but their goalies just aren't good.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: They're on a back to back. Maybe they saved Lyon.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: It might be luking into though. I don't know. They
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: saved one of those guys for this Colorado game though,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: But they are still on a back to back. Will
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: it be a bounced back spot for them? Maybe? Because
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: I don't like the spot that Colorado is in. Even
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: though Buffalo is on a back to back Colorado. They
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: just beat Anaheim. Man, that's a pretty big deal. Colorado's
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: on a five game win streak. They almost suffer the
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: let down to Vancouver. We got to push on the
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: show with Vancouver in that one because I said, make
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: your own plus one puck line on that. Beating Anaheim
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: and ending Anaims wins. That's a big win for Colorado,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: so they could be in a little bit of a letdown.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: So I kind of lean Buffalo in this one, even
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: though they're in the back to back, but Colorado's up
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: to a minus three thirty favorite. I mean, if you
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: want Buffalo, you can take them on the puck line
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: and probably get a decent price on that puck line,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: like plus one and a half. Even make your own
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: like plus two buck line, if that's even possible. I
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's even possible. Maybe it is with
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: you know, using alternate lines in some way between the
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: two and a half and the one and a half.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but you know, maybe they'll keep that
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: game somewhat close. Garfield was a freemason. That's not good.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Why are they all free masons? Man? That's a that's
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: like the Illuminati. That's evil. We went head to head
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: on that one. Yeah, I did not agree with I
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: think dirty Sock was with you on Utah there. I
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: did not agree with that. I shouldn't have added it
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: to my car. That was my It was my least
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: favorite of the three. My favorite was the Rangers and
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: of course my gauge on and that was at least right,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: that was the easiest win. Yeah, I did not like
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: Utah yesterday though they were in a return home spot.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: You know me, I'm never gonna be on a team
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: that returns on for a road trip. And it was
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: revenge for Buffalo and Buffalo had a bunch of days off.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't It probably doesn't take balls to
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: play a puck line on this one with Buffalo. San
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Jose at Calgary is the worst game of the day.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: I know San Jose is eight six and three, but
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: they are not actually that good. They just pulled off
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: another win on a four game win streak. Now they
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: beat Minnesota in overtime. I thought that was gonna be
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot if for San Jose beat Florida or
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to start adjusting what we think of
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: San Jose. I don't know, man, because I still think
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: they suck. Calgary also sucks Calgary. They're on a three
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: game losely streak. They're returning on from a road trip,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: but it was a quick road trip that just took
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: them to Minnesota and Saint Louis, so I don't consider
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: that to be that battle, though they do. Of Winnipeg next,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: that is a big game. You're always, I think, gonna
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: get up for one of the better teams in your
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: conference that I think in your division with Winnipeg. The
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: money is saying San Jose here, Calgary is the favorite.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers are telling you not to buy
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: the records here. So that's one thing where I look for. Oh,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: the record says San Jose is a better team, but
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: the actual the oddsmakers are telling you that Calgary is
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: the better team. So that's one of those like lines
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: that makes you think, hmm, okay, why is Calgary a
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: favorite when they have the way worse record, oddsmakers telling
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: you they're the better team. They're up for minus one
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: fifty five for minus one fifty six, that would have
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: me looking towards Calgary. I do think the spot is
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: not great for Calgary. Seventy four percent to take as
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash coming in on San Jose.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: I just think it is kind of a look ahead
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: spot for Calgary. But I think at some point San
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: Jose is gonna lose this steam. Like, I just don't
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: think that this is good. So I have issues with
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: that game. I mean, I guess I would agree with
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: the percentage and maybe agree with taking San Jose as
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: a money line, but I really have no good feel
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: on that game at all, so I would I would
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: not take what I'm saying with any sort of with
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: any sort of Wait, I guess the New York Islanders,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: they just pulled off back to back wins against the
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Rangers in New Jersey, so they completed the sweep of
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: their local rivals the Rangers and the Devils, shutting out
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: the Rangers in Madison Square Garden, which that was a
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: win for us on the show. Rangers terrible at home
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: until they beat Nashville at least good win there, and
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: then after shutting out the Rangers on the road, the
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: Islanders went to New Jersey and beat them three to
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: two in overtime. So I think this is a bad spot.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Even though this is kind of like a new start
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: of a road trip with a couple of days off.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: Now they're gonna go out to the Pacific time zone,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: but it's the first game out of the Pacific time
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: zone coming off two big wins. It's gonna be late
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: with their biological clock here. I think it's a bad
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: spot for the Island, even though they should get up
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: for a game against Vegas. But Vegas has actually been struggling.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: They actually have more losses than wins. Vegas has lost
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: three in a row. They are staying at home, and
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: they have the same amount of time off as the Islanders.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: They've had multiple days off. I think this is a
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: Vegas spot man. Vegas is also the better team. They're
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: down for minus one eighty five to minus one eighty two,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: can be going to Vegas. I agree with Vegas. I
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: like Vegas. I would play Vegas again, probably one of
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: those games to win in regulation, even though I haven't
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: been good at those games, to win in regulation, because
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: it's almost like teams don't try that hard to win
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: in regulation and they're just okay with it going into overtime.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: There's so many overtime games. Or if you want to
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: do the thing where you make your own minus one
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: and a half puck line, you know, do that thing
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half, split it with the minus
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: one and a half and the money line, and then
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: if they win by one, you'll at least not lose
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: any money. That's the risk averse way of doing it.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: But it's just really, dude, I hate hockey because the
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: games are so close. It's just you see a favor
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: that's of this like magnitude in a spot that you like,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: and it's just really difficult to actually find a way
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: to actually bet it appropriately. I mean, the other option
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: would be to go Vegas over their team total, which
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: I don't hate that either. If you want to do that,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: check the spot to fade the Islanders tomorrow on a
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: back to back going into elevation after Vegas. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree that that's a bad spot, but I
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: think this is a this is a big time fade
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: spot right here for the Islanders in my opinion, though
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: pretty strong opinion for me on Vegas in this one.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: This one, I'm like, I'm pretty tempted to somehow throw
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: that on my on my card. But I just I
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: just don't want to deal with another regulation regulation bet
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: right now, So I'm gonna stick with just Detroit. But
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: I like Vegas quite a bit. In that one Winnipeg
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: got see. I mean those win again, those wins for
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: the Islanders are huge, dude, Winnipeg at Seattle. Winnipeg's coming
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: up beating Vancouver. They're finishing a road trip here when
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: they went to the Pacific Coast and now they're back
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: in the well, they're still on the Pacific Coast, but
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: up to the Pacific Northwest. Now, they broke a loss
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: streak with that win over Vancouver's that could give them
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit bit of momentum coming into this game.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: They did lose to Seattle at home three to nothing
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: back on October twenty third, so maybe they remember that.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of one of those revenge angles
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: here with the home favorite here having lost the previous
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: game on the road to that team. So I do
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: expect Winnipeg to show up Seattle seven to four and five.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: They have just a ton of overtime losses. I don't
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: think they're really that great of a team. They've lost
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: two in a row. I mean I expect them to
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: show up in this game too. They're still without Decord
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: though my man from Boston, Joey to Cord. He's on
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: IR right now. So Seattle's without their top goalie now,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: which is not good. They've been using Murray in net
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: now for these Groobauer and it has not worked out
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: for them so far. As so, Seattle is in some
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: dire straits right now. As far as that's concerned, I
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: expect them to show up. I mean, they did just
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: lose at home to Columbus. They were coming off of
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: a loss to Dallas and returning home from a short
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: road trip, so in third game in four days in
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: different cities wasn't a good spot for Seattle there. This
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: looks like it is kind of a get right spot
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: for them, So I think both teams are gonna be
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: focused in this one. Oh, this game is at home
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. One of my say I misspoke. This is
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: a road revenge angle for Winnipeg, although I still like
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: that too, because Winnipeg lost ugly at home three to nothing,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: got shut out embarrassed at home by Seattle, So I
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: still like that angle to revenge for Winnipeg on the road.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: Eighty nine percent take is ninety eight percent of the cash.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: On Winnipeg, they're down for my as one forty five
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: to minus one forty one. Yeah, I mean their public
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: road favorite. I don't love those, but I would probably
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: still slightly lead to Winnipeg there when it's focused for
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: both teams. I kind of think the better team wins out.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: I would say when you have two focused teams and
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: undermakes sense, like I said last night too, for Winnipeg,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: it does because I think Hellabuk has only been back
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: in net for one game. He's really good, so he
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: should be back in net. So I'm not afraid of
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: the Winnipeg side of keeping this thing under. But Seattle
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: with their goalie now you know, injured, I don't love that.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: So you know you're not going to touch that game. Obviously,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: you hate both teams, SABB you lose on both of them.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: I think I lost on Winnipeg the last time I
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: gave them out. I don't know. Winnipeg was decent for
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: me last year, whether I went with them or against them. NBA,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: we only have a few games left to talk about.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: I know I went a little bit early today. I
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: apologize to that, but I like to get this thing done.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: I don't like any of the NBA games. Today Toronto
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: is at Cleveland. Toronto, I believe they have at least
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: one day off here. Yes they do. They didn't play yesterday.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: They're coming off beating Brooklyn. Whatever you expect, Toronto will
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: be focused. But the last time they played at Cleveland,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: they actually beat Cleveland by eleven points. So Cleveland probably
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: remembers that, and it's probably gonna take Toronto more seriously
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: for that reason, because it is revenge. I forgot to
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: mention that with the Cleveland handicap yesterday, the Cleveland could
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: actually potentially have been looking ahead more to Toronto because
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: it's a revenge spot. But seems like that wasn't really
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: the case for Cleveland yesterday as Cleveland got the win.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: And I was right about that. I told you that
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: was the Bell Curve spot there where the line had
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: overadjusted to the fact that Cleveland was resting all their players,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: except they still had Alan. Jared Allen whatever his name,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: has had a big game yesterday because they bent they
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: rested mobily, I think, and Allen was the big guy
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: in the game. Miami is still an injured team too.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: Man I still thought Miami was going to be in
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: that spot where they played really well in the previous
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: game and they just wouldn't know what to do against
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: the Cleveland team that was playing like not playing their starters.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: I thought it was kind of a letdown spot for
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: Miami for that reason, So I was correct. Even though
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: the market reed looked like it was saying lay it
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: with Miami, I said no. I said it was an
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: over adjustment in the line. I thought Cleveland, they were
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: like backups, would actually get excited to play that game,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: and it was backups against backups, so that was a situation.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: I got a correct. Cleveland won the game outright by
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: double digits. Now they're returning home, but it was only
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: a trip to Miami for two games. I do think
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: they will show up for this, even though it's a
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: back to back in a third game in four days,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: with the first two being in Miami. So I don't
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: love it for Cleveland, although it is a revenge spot
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland, which I do like that aspect of it.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: And remember Cleveland rested everybody yesterday, so I think that
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: that is why they were doing it, because I think
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: they wanted their guys to play in this game against
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: Toronto to try to get revenge. Remember, it's not really
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: as bad as a back to back usually would be
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: because Garland, Mitchell and Mobile all didn't play yesterday, I believe,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: so they all at least didn't start, so they rested.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: So I mean, we go look at the box score
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: real quick and see what it looked like there. Let
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: me see. Yeah, correct, they all just didn't even play.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: So that was the situation there. So you're gonna get
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: a fresher Calves team than you would normally get on
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: a back to back. But the money is saying the
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: Raptors cleaning up from five and a half to seven
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: and a half, fifty six per tickets on them, but
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash coming back in on
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: the Raptors seven and a half. I know it's a
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: worse number in basketball, sevens the key number teams stop
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: potentially following. I lean to the Calves in this game, though,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: despite it being the back to back for the reasons
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: I just said, but not strong here. Oh yeah, it's
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: the cop. Yeah, I don't think teams Yeah, like a
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: team like the Calves, they don't care about the cop.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: Those those guys were not injured. It was intentional rest Mitchell, Mobley,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: and Garland. The Cleveland intentionally rested all of them in
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: the game yesterday. I think to set it up for
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: the back to back so that they would play in
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't think any of them are injured.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: Garland just came back from injury not that long ago.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: But I think it was rest for all of them,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: So I believe they were all playing in this game.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: Mobiley Well, they are listed as game time decisions, so
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm wrong about that. Yeah, but
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: it's all because of rest. Like I said, it was yesterday.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: They were listed as rest, like they're not actually injured. Sorry,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: except for Garland. Garland has a toe injury. But is
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: that really gonna keep them out of this game? I
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: would kind of doubt it, Like, how is a toe
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: injury gonna keep you out? You know, Justin Fields had
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: won in preseason for the Jets and he came right back.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think a toe. Oh, you stubbed your toe.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: That's what a tow condusion is. You stubbed your toe.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: Seems like an excuse to just rest him yesterday. Anyway,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: I do lean to Cleveland in this one just because
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: Toronto punched them in the mouth last time. I don't
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: care that it's the NBA Cup at all. Sab is
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: correct that Cleveland does not care about the NBA Cup
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: in that they they're trying to win a championship here,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: and they've explicitly stated that they're going to be resting
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: their players during the regular season more because they overworked
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: them last year and then they got hurt in the playoffs.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: But this is a game where I think they do
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: want this game because Toronto beat them last time and
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland does not want to let that stand just from
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: you know, that's just you know, your mindset, Like this
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: team beat us at home, we got to beat them
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: this time. Indiana is at Phoenix. Indiana's on a major skid,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, the only one one game this season. Things
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: are down, although they've gotten a lot of their guys back,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: obviously not Haliburton, though Indiana's finishing a road trip here.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: They did just get annihilated at Util. They give them
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty two points. I mentioned I lean
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: to u Jah on that game, but one hundred and
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: fifty two points. That is crazy, dude, just embarrassing. That's
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: like next level embarrassing to the point where you gotta
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: think Indiana is gonna show up in this game. I
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: know Indiana is not really known for their defense and
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: they play fast. But then you have Phoenix now on
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: a four game win streak, and they played yesterday in Dallas,
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: and they're playing a third game in four days with
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: travel between all the games, in a fourth game in
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: six days with travel between all the games. So I
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: would lean to Indiana in this game. The Suns are
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: very public, ninety percent of the tickets, ninety four percent
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: of the cash. As of now, they did tick up
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: to four and a half, but I think when you
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: see the game go off, you'll probably see the money
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: actually coming back on the Pacers a little bit. Sob
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: is apparently on the Pacers. I'm leaving it alone, but
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: I agree with the Pacers plus the points, but ugh,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: ough don't. I don't want to do it. And then Atlanta,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: that Utah Atlanta. I mean, they're on a nice three
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: game win streak. They played yesterday as well, so they're
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: now playing a third game in four days, fourth game
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: in six days, all in different cities, and they've won
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: the previous three, including beating the Lakers at home, then
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: beating me in what I thought was gonna be a
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: letdown spot having to go to the Pacific Coast and
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of times that first travel spot to the
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast messes with your bio clock. They won anyway
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: against the Clippers. Then they just totally beat up Sacramento,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: who now has sabonas back, beating them by thirty three
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: points last night. So this does look like it's kind
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here for Atlanta here, and just
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: a really bad scheduling spot with so many games in
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: quick succession with travel. But I can't really do Utah either, man,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: even though they have one day off. They just put
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: up one hundred and fifty two points, although it was
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: against Indiana, so it broke I mean, I think it's
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: just gonna be a confidence building win. Although when a
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: team scores one hundred and fifty two it is possible
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: they get over confident. Man. They did break a three
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: game losing streak and they beat a team that's not
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: good like Indiana, that's not playing well right now, so
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think they will be over confident. Could be
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: a nice new like momentum starter for the Jazz. So
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I do still like the Jazz in this game, but
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: I don't want to. I can't get there with it.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: I can't really play a team that just put up
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty two. Hawks are up from one
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: to two and a half here, so you are getting
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: points with the Jazz here. Trey Young is still not
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: back for the Hawks. It looks like he might come
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: back in the next game or two, potentially fifty three
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: percent to take us fifty four percent of the cash
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: on the Jazz. I would take the points of the Jazz.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Although the Jazz, especially without Kessler. Now, I don't think
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: the Jazz are that good. They've been decent at home though,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: three and two, although the Hawks are five and two
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: on the road. Now, Hawks have been good on the road.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna stay away from that college football. I'm
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: also gonna stay away, but I will give out a
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: lean here. This is a Sun Belt game between Troy
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: and Old Dominion. It's an interesting game where generally it's
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: Troy is the better defense, Old Dominion is the better offense.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: So the Old Dominion is pretty balanced. They're actually not
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: that bad defensively. Troy is definitely weak offensively and That's
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: why Old Dominions an eleven point favorite here, because they're
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: way better offensively than Troy. Although the defenses are pretty comparable,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: I still think debatably Troy does have the better defense,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: and it is then the better defense getting points. Old
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: Dominions sitting in an eleven point favorite, it looks like
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: it's ticked down a little bit. Eighty six percent of tickets,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: only seventy five percent of the cash on Old Dominion,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: so the money is kind of saying to fade Old Dominion,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: and I do not disagree with that. Seventy four percent
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, fifty three percent of the
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: cash on the under, with the total dropping off of
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: fifty four, which I think is a somewhat key number
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: down to fifty two and a half. So the money's
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: coming in a bit on the under and sort of
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: indicating on Troy. And I think those are correlated because,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: of course, if you think that Old Dominion is gonna cover,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: of course you need the game to be higher scoring.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: You need Old into score against this Troy deepense right
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: to cover that number, obviously, and it probably a higher
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: scoring game would lend itself to it a little bit more.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: But I do not like to spot for Old Dominion. Yeah,
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: this is a sun Belt game, but Old Dominion now
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: has two losses in the sun Belt, and that's kind
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: of a problem because the way the sun Belt works
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: is the team that wins the East Division plays the
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: team that wins the West Division in the championship. And
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: right now in Old Dominion's division, they're two games back
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: of JMU, so it's highly unlikely they're gonna be able
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: to overtake them. It's possible with three games left, I
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: think for both teams, but I don't think. I think
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: they know they're not gonna be able to do it. Man,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: So I don't know about Old Dominion's mindset here. Both
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: teams are coming out of a bye here, but Old
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: Dominion went into the buy on a two game win
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: streak after they got crushed by James Madison, which that
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: game I think really just kind of ended their hopes
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: to try to win this division here. And I believe
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: they're also behind Marshall if I'm not mistaken, in the
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: same division. Oh no, Cotill, excuse me, it's not Marshall.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina. I mean Coastal Carolina. They're pretty fraudulent though
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: I have Old Dominions better than Coastal, but they're behind
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: them in the standings. Coastal with one loss, but Old
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: do Minyon went into a buye They've crushed Uel Monroe
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: going into the by Uel Monroe. They stink not a
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: good team, but Old Menu went into the buy. And
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: I talk about this on a win streak, and that
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: is not what you want now that they've had like twelve
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: days off because they haven't played since the first So
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: having extra time off and having a bye like that
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: is not helpful when you're on a win streak because
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: it can hurt your momentum. So I don't like that
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: for Old Dominion, even though yes, this is an ESPN
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Primetime game and it will be their first ESPN Primetime
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: game and they're hosting this year, so that is a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: somewhat big deal. So the crowd usually gets up for
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: a game like that and shows up, so that would
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: be kind of my hesitation. I'm playing Troy here. I
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: can't quite get there with it, even though I do
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: still lean towards Troy. Troy is still in the mix
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: here man for the Sun Belt, Troy is in the
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: other division. They're in the West and they're sitting with
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: one loss and the only team that's above them is
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: Marshall from last year, which is now Southern Miss. They've
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: been pretty good this year and they're five and zero
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: in conference, but Troy is only one game back of them.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: So Troy actually has a little bit more motivation here,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: I think because Old Dominion realistically can't get to the
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt title game. Now Troy can. And Troy definitely
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: can because Troy still plays a Southern Miss in their
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: last game of the season, so that's pretty big. So
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: Troy still has it in front of them. Men, if
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: they beat Southern Miss, if both teams just win out
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: the rest of the way until that game, all Troy
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: has to do is beat Southern Miss, although it's not easy.
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have to do it on the road. But
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: if they win that game, they then have the tiebreaker
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: with them. They'll tie them up and they'll win the
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt West or whatever. So that is still in
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: front of them Troy. They went into the buy as well,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: they last played on the first, but they went into
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: the buy in a terrible note. Losing is a favorite
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: at home to Arkansas State, who is not in Arkansas
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: State I think was up for that game, and Arkansas
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: State is right behind them in the standings. This is
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: a bad game for Troy. They were terrible offensively in
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: the game. Arkansas State did outgain them two ninety seven
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: to eighty seven. So I don't love that for Troy
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: because yeah, they lost. It was an ugly loss, but
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a misleading loss, so I do worry about that.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: But still I think they will bounce back from that now.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: Even though yes, that ended a win streak of theirs.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that they went into the bye
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: the bye is actually gonna be helpful to Troy, whereas
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: it's not helpful to Old Dominion. So for Troy, you
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: know what, I'm thinking about giving this out as a play.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: To be honest, it's close for Troy. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: the buy is gonna be more helpful to them because
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: they went on such an ugly loss as a favorite.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: They got to use that buy to fix some things.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: Man coming out of that buy, and again they're the
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: team that really still has everything in front of them,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: whereas Old Dominion. They basically needed to beat James Madison
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: and they already failed to do that in horrific fashion.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: So the games that are in front of them in
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: their division are only against the two Georgia, so they
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: can't make up ground really because they're playing only teams
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: that are below them. They already beat Coastal, so they
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: can't beat them again. Yeah, they have the tiebreaker with Coastal,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: but that's not in front of them anymore. Coastal is
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: still ahead of them. So you know, what should we
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: do it? I do like this one. Yeah, let's do it.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: I'm a glutton for punishment. Man. Let's add a college
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: football play that means I'm gonna have to throw this
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: into my money. Pick them the one that actually allows
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: the one that actually has the lower conference teams that
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: because I'm in two money. Pick thems on slash sports,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: and one only deals with bigger conferences and one has
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: smaller conferences. And so I already had West Western Michigan
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: in that one, and I'm really close to the money
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: in that one. But in the other one that's bigger
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: with that's only the big conference once there are more
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: people in it, so I'm not closer to the money
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: in that one. I'm in the money in my NFL
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: one right now. But I'm very close to the money
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: and the one that I played Western Miss I'm looking
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: right now to see what the best numbers we can
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: get on Troy. We're gonna do it. Anything ten and
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: a half were better, I think is fine on this
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: I don't see the elevens still out there, but ten
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: and a half I think is fine. And again, as
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: I always say, I would still put a little bit
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: on the money line. I always do. That's just my
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: thing with an underdog, if they're an underdog of more
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: than double digits, i'd say, like in this case, maybe
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: put about three percent of the bet on the money line,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: just in case it happens. I mean, I think there
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: is the potential that it will happen. Both teams have
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: actually been decently battle tested. Troy got us that win
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: at Clemson on the cover, not an outright win, but
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: they covered against Clemson than now we know Clemson is
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: not that good, and Troy did face Memphis, who is
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: not a bad team obviously, so Troy has been a
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: little bit battle tested. ODU actually has looked really good
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: in their out of conference games because they played Indiana
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: really close. That was the one that really looked good.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: They did beat Virginia Tech, and Virginia Tech was just
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: playing really bad football then, and that was a game
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: where Old Dominion really got up for it because they're
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: a little brother in the state of Virginia, and Virginia
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: Tech was so bad at that point that they fired
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: their coach. So I won't put that much stock into
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: that one. Although they were really competitive against Indiana, which
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: is pretty impressible. That was the first game of the season,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: so you could argue Indiana getting used to their new
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: quarterback and new lineup they have there and just weren't
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: totally focused Old Dominion. More recently, they did beat Liberty,
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: which was a good win as well, But the stuff
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: they've done in conference has been less impressive. Man, I mean,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: getting pretty much like wrecked by Marshall and JM. Mule.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: Those are both on the road. They've been fine at home,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: but I mean their last home game was against app
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: State and they actually weren't that good in that game
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: against app State. They only won by three, so that's
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: not great. It looks like Old Dominion's kind of getting
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse now, whereas Troy. Troy has actually
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: been good on the road in conference. They blew out
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: Uoel Monroe on the road of the that's a crap team.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: But they also beat Texas State on the road. That's
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: not easy to do Texas State. I just think they're
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: way under performing their talent level this year. Texas State
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: is still pretty difficult to beat at home, especially back
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: then they had like a really good recent history at home.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: So yeah, anyway, all that being said, I'll at it
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: here to make it official. We'll go with Troy the
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: best you can get out there right now as I
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: think ten and a half, but we'll do it. We'll
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: take Troy plus the points there in that one. And
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: then we got the NFL game of course, which there's
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: no way I want to have my money on this game.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: I am wearing my Drake May jerseys. So here's the thing, man,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: I became a Patriot hater because of the way Bill
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: Belichick came to them. I hate Bill Belichick. I think
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: he's an overrated coach. I think he's pretty much evil
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: and a bastard. Hated him, could not root for that team.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: Don't like Brady either. I think he's a douchebag. Hated
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: that team. I was a lover of the Patriots before that.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: With Drew bledso built ourselves Curtis Martin. Belichick basically screwed
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: over the Jets, basically accepted the Jets head coaching job,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: then said no, I'm actually gonna go over to the Patriots.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Belichick has a reputation of screwing over teams, like he
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: did with the Browns by basically running that organization into
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: the ground as a terrible coach, and then they moved
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: to Baltimore because of him, so he basically ruined the
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: city of Cleveland's football permanently. And I don't even like Cleveland,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: but fuck Belichick for that. But now what he's doing,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: Belichick is screwing over Drake May now. And I don't
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: have anything against Drake May. I think he's all right.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: I like him, I like Mike Vrabel, So I'm back
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: on board the Patriots to some extent. But I'm also
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: wearing this as an f few to Bill Belichick. So yeah,
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: I mean it's interesting because I think you can I
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: think being like pro Drake May is being anti Bill Belichick.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: So it's crazy because you're gonna have all these Patriots fans.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: Now that's still like think Belichick is a god and
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: whatever strategic genius. Nah, Belichick, Like when he didn't have
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady on his team, he was never that good,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: even though I know I have pointed out they had
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: that one season with Brady injured where they actually played
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: pretty well, but they didn't make the playoffs. Although they
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: were ten and six I think, and didn't make the playoffs.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: It was a weird situation that year with Matt Castle,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: and he was awful everywhere else he went, So I
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: guess some of it was kind of the system, but
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: some of it was also that the Patriots had built
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: up a really good defense with Bill Parcell's there, so whatever,
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: Belichick kind of inherited a lot of good players in
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: that way as well. Belichick, he's screwing over Drake May
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: now because we know Belichick is at North Carolina. Now,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: who's like the most famous quarterback a graduate from North
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: Carolina now, because it's not Mitch Trubisky right now, who
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: I believe went there, It is our boy Drake May.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: Here Belichick is refusing to put to allow Drake May's
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: name to be like uttered at North Carolina now, Like
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: North Carolina wants to retire his number or something, and
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: they want to like put some tribute to him put
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: his name up somewhere in the stadium, and Belichick is
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: refusing to let him do it just because he's butt hurt.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: Just because Belichick is butt hurt at the Patriots organization
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: now at Robert Kraft because they got into kind of
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: a thing. I think Kraft kind of like Craft had
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: issues with him for a while. I think Kraft told
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: him to get out of there. Not that I'm a
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: fan of Craft, I'm not at all, but I mean
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: he's basically in line with how bad all the other
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: owners are. Yeah, so whatever, But it's just this weird
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: situation now where Belichick is just like not allowing May's
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: name to be uttered at North Carolina, which is just insane.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: Like North Carolina fans must not like that, because why
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: would why would North Carolina not want to be able
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: to talk about like one of the best quarterbacks that
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: they've produced like out of their program. It's so stupid, dude,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: So whatever, TSLA, what are we talking about here? BELLI cheat? Yeah,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: he's also a cheater, That is true. I gotta say.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: In North Carolina's defense is improving, I will say that,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: and I kind of I think I might lean to
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: them this week too. But I have to look at
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: the car at the board more Tony Easton, I think
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit before my time. I think, yeah so,
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: but he might be better than Drake May. I don't
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: know if that's what we're talking about here. My college football,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: by the way, is lining up pretty decently. I have
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: two plays that I really like in college football already,
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: and I'll probably gonna wind up with about four or
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: five other than the ones that we have here. But
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: we'll see. So we will see. Jets Patriots of course,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: as it was alluded to, is the Thursday night game.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, anytime you get the Jets involved in a game,
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: you know it's gonna be pretty ugly. I mean, I
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: think they're probably better than like the Saints and the Titans,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: but they're probably the third worst team in football. Probably
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: they're not as good as the Browns. Jets defensively haven't
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: even been that good, even though their defense has been
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: their calling card the last few years. Like they've had
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: an ugly offense, with their defense has been what's kind
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: of held them afloat. And they brought in a defensive
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: minded coach and he's just been bad. Aaron Glenn probably
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: should be fired. However, the Jets have won two games
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: in a row. Uh, so there is that where I
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: think they did have They did have some closer calls. Man,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: I did not think they were as bad as they
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: were as that oh seven record indicated. I've given out
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: the Jets four times this year as plays or no.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: Six times as plays, and they're four and two. So
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: I've given out the Jets to play a lot and
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: we've actually won on the Jets. I'm not gonna do
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: it today, but the Jets have played close in some games.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: They should have beaten. Pittsburgh outplayed them early in the season.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: There they got out played by Tampa, but they came
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: back and had the lead late in the game, could
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: have won that. They lost to Miami because of turnovers.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: They they played close against Denver in London, so they
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: played a decent well. They were horrible offensively, but their
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: defense showed up in that game. And then they lost
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: to Carolina. That's ugly, but it was a close game.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: Then they finally won for Austins on the show. They
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: beat Cincinnati and what I thought was a major letdown
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: spot for Cincinnati off the win over the Steelers, and
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: then they won again last week against Cleveland. Coming out
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: of the bylthough, I thought having a bye right after
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: they got that first win I thought was bad. And
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: with New England up on a short week, it didn't
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: look like a great spot to me for the Jets.
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: So I did point that out, even though the market
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: reids said the Jets. But if you look at what
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: happened in this game, I mean, the Jets kind of
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: got some flukes in this game. Man. The Jets had
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty nine yards of offense. Cleveland outgained
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: them by over one hundred yards in the game. They
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: outfirst down them by almost double twenty three to twelve,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: and they out possessed them by like eight minutes. And
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: yet the Jets won the game. But if you look
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: at what happened in the game, the Jets had a
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: kick return touchdown and then a punt return touchdown, both
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: in the first both in the first quarter, and then
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: they had one other really long pass play yeah to
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: Bresee Hall who was against me in fantasy last week.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: Although I still won, but still that was a misleading
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: win for the Jets. It was an ugly game. Will
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: the Jets be motivated for this game. Yeah, I think so.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: I think this is one of the games when you're
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: a dead team like the Jets, you're gonna show up
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: for a game against the division leader right now, the
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: Newightan Patriots. So yeah, I think the Jets will show
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: up for it. New England has pretty much dominated the
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: Jets in recent years. Though Jets don't have a whole
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: don't have very many covers against the Patriots. But maybe
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: the Patriots take them lightly man. I mean, the Patriots
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: are coming off a big game between may and Mayfield
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: where I accidentally said it was May's field, but it
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: was Mayfield's field. So the Patriots are traveling back from that.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: That was a big game. The Patriots, I pointed out,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: I had an easy schedule though, like most of their
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: wins are not that impress They're against Miami, Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: They have decent wins against Buffalo, obviously, Atlanta or they
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: almost lost that game, and then Tampa Bay. Although I've
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: said I think Tampa Bay is a little bit overrated,
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna say they're a bad team, even
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: though I think they're overrated, But it is possible in
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: New England just doesn't take the Jets that seriously here,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: so I'll lean to the Jets plus the points, but
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: I really don't like it. Man. Again, it was a
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: misleading win for the Jets last week, but they do
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: still have momentum now now they won a couple of
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: games in a row, and as a dead team again,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: one of the types of games you will still still
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: get up for as a game against the division leader
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: like this. The Patriots have gone up from ten and
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: a half, which I think might have been the look
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: ahead now to thirteen, so I think the line's a
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: little bit out of control. Seventy six percent of tickets,
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: only seventy two percent of the cash, so the Patriots
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: are obviously public. There's no way the public's gonna play
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: the Jets. Total has also dropped from forty six to
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: forty three, so some money looks like it's dropping that total,
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: And of course I think if you like the Jets here,
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: it correlates to the under because if you think the
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: Jets are gonna cover, a lower scoring game will be
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: more conducive to that. Sixty four percent takets fifty three
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Jets, so the money
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: is uh, excuse sixty four percent of the tickets on
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: the over excuse me, fifty three percent of the cash
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: and the over my mistake. So uh, the cash percentage
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: is saying Fad is saying to fade the public here
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: with both the Jets plus the points and the under.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: We'll see if mister Thursday Night can continue as I'm
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: nine and one. No, I'm yeah, nine and one in
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: my Thursday Night leans so far, but this one I
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: do not feel strongly about. Although I guess you could
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: still argue that the Jets are the better defense than
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. The Patriots defense hasn't been great. Uh, They've
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: mostly been doing it with decent offense. Jets defense has
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: not been as good as you would expect either though,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: so they're actually both kind of mediocre defenses. So one
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: isn't really that much better than the other, although I
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: think the Jets might be more capable of playing better defense,
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. That's gonna do it for the
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: show today, though. Man, hopefully we get some wins today. Nate,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Thanks for hanging out. I know I
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: started the show early. The plays today college basketball, we
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: got San Jose State plus the boatload of points there.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: I like Purdue plus the four. It looks like it
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: might be three and a half now, but I like
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: how the spot sets up, and I like the spot
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: for Grambling or Grambling State money line. If you want
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: to lay minus one, minus one and a half, whatever,
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: you could, But again I think I recommend more going
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: with the money line, and it's in that low of
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: a territory on the spread is a small favorite there
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be mostly a fade of their opponent there though,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: which I already forget who their opponent is, a Southern
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: Miss because of the way Southern Miss. By the way,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: I should point out before I get out of here,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: they not only played that game into overtime against South Carolina.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: They I'll bring it up real quick because I forgot
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: to point this out. This is dude. The way that
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: they lost that game is even worse because let me
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: see here, gotta look at today, because I think this
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: was two days ago when this happened. Where are we?
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: Where are you, Southern Miss? Here we are? They completely
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: had this game won against South Carolina. It was like
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: almost impossible that they were gonna lose this game. Look
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: at this, They were up to a whatever, that is
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: a ninety five percent chance to win the game. South
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss was up eleven with three point fifty left
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: in the game, ninety percent chance to win, and they
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: still lost the game. That's insane. Uh yeah, So Southern
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: Miss was winning that game, yeah, by double digits with
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: like three three something minutes left. It's just insane, dude.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: And that was after South Carolina was already pointed out.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: They came back from being down early, but they basically
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: had that game in hand and still lost the game.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: That's just brutal. So we were gonna fade, Yeah, we're
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: definitely fading a Southern Miss there. And then in hockey
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: we have the Detroit red Wings money line and adding
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: last minute, we're gonna take Troy plus the points. In
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: college football in that Sun Belt game, that's gonna do it.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: Learn a tone on Twitter, learn to tone on Instagram,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: give me follows there of course, like subscribe to the
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: channel here on YouTube, toad Sports, toadstool Sports, now, baby,
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: leave me some comments. Let's try to get this get
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: more subscribers here. Amount of views seems to have stayed
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: about the same since the rebrands. I don't know. We'll see.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going, baby, and then covered in you
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: because my Yuke channel on YouTube, so you can check
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: that out too. Haven't been keeping up with it because
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: my voice has sucked recently. We are on audio with
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports as well. My beard is coming back in
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: for the most part. I'm gonna have to shave here
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: and here as well, not not allow us to become
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: a neck beard. But we're back, baby. I like having
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: the scruff. This doesn't look too bad now. No longer
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: a fat naked baby. But yes, Apple and Spotify give
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: me a good review on there too. With Toadstool Sports. God,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: I think I still have to update my link tree
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: for all that stuff. And then Patreon dot Conversations learn
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: to toe and you can get bonus content. We have
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: a Yuke Spotify feed and request prioritize requests. But I
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: apologize I'm not being very good to the Patreons. I
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: need to offer them more. We'll see. Maybe I'll start
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: doing Toad's Tears like I said, and that'll be yet
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: another channel on YouTube. Maybe I don't know, like having
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: a different channel for everything. Maybe I should consolidate it
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: all into one. Channel, uh, learn to toe and I
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: don't know. I got to think about what I want
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: to do here. Well, we'll figure it out, but right
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: now they're all separate. That's gonna do it. Have a
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: good one for now, guys. Peace,