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Episode 550 - 7/17/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to. Episode 5. 50 of the all.
• 0:18
  Systems. Go sports betting podcast.
• 0:21
  Powered by rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
• 0:30
  What's going on, everyone? Happy Friday, our work.
• 0:33
  Week is coming to an end. It was a short week guys.
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  With the last couple days off. We took a breather, but it's
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  nice to be back. It's nice to get back into the
• 0:40
  swing of things. And I tell you what, I made kind
• 0:42
  of this, you know, comment. Earlier prior to a.
• 0:45
  Couple days off there with the All Star break.
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  Once you get past the All Star break to me, you know.
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  All Star break is smack dab middle.
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  Of the summer so. All Star Break means half the
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  summer's over and then the second-half of the summer is
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  still upon you. But.
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  It tells you that. Hey.
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  Baseball's about to heat up. We're going.
• 1:01
  To into the playoff races before, you know, we're going to
• 1:03
  start looking at standings, who's in, who's out.
• 1:06
  My Red Sox. Are making an unbelievable.
• 1:08
  You know, run here. Back into into contention, which
• 1:10
  is shocking to me. But more importantly, it tells
• 1:13
  you that once you pass. The All Star break NFL college
• 1:16
  football. Just football in general is not
• 1:19
  far off, so with. That being said, if anyone saw
• 1:23
  my Twitter at Josh under Score Insights or is a fan of the
• 1:26
  Sharp reports, I did write yesterday a column about.
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  NFL win totals. That are taking.
• 1:31
  In sharp money across the market.
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  So I did have. Three NFL win tools that I
• 1:35
  wanted. To talk about two.
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  Unders and one over. I'm already holding.
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  The Houston Texans over. 9 1/2 wins.
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  I made that bet. I don't know about a month.
• 1:44
  Ago for the V. Sin betting guide and.
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  Really what I'm looking for is. Same kind of thought.
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  Process we want low. Bets higher dollars, sharp line
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  move. Juice liability so you know if a
• 1:54
  total is. Let's just say 8 1/2 wins.
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  It opened 8 1/2. -110 Now the over is 8 1/2 - 120.
• 2:02
  And the over is getting 60. Percent bets, but 90% dollars,
• 2:06
  OK, We have the market telling us that there's been smart money
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  pouring in over the summer on that over so.
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  I do have 3 plays here. Just to kind of get us excited a
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  little about a little bit for the NFL here.
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  Returning and then we're. Going to get right back to
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  betting. Major League.
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  Baseball because again, first half.
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  Did pretty decent overall, so we can keep it rolling here.
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  Into the second-half. I do have 3.
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  Short money line favorites. We got a couple inter league
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  favorites. We also have some short
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  favorites here. With good sharp mush edges from
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  our friends at Juice Reel. As well as some.
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  Good angles here with rhythm backing us up with some AI model
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  plays. So I do want to save the NFL for
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  last because again, we got baseball games today to talk
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  about. But these NFL games, or NFL
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  teams I should say, are interesting.
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  To me. Because I was.
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  I was. Pouring into the data.
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  At Bet MGM updated. Data, and there's some.
• 2:55
  Teams that might be. Obvious like really good team,
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  take their over, there's a couple teams again.
• 3:01
  One team that might. Be terrible and I'm.
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  Looking at their under and one team that was good last year but
• 3:05
  might take a step back. So excited to finish up the
• 3:08
  second-half of the pod. Talking some NFL win totals.
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  But again, hope everyone had a great All Star break.
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  You know, there's a very interesting topic of.
• 3:16
  Conversation on #gambling Twitter like you know if.
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  Nothing's on. If nothing's there to bet on,
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  are you? Are you able to just step away
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  and take a couple days off? I love betting.
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  It's my. Career.
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  It's my passion. So I was kind of thinking to
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  myself, hey, I wish I had a game to sweat.
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  But it just got me excited to get.
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  Back in the arena here. For today so we're.
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  Going to see if we can go 2IN1 eek.
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  Out of winning night. On our first official day back
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  from. The All Star Break.
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  So without any further ado, let's get down to three MLB
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  plays and of course, try to grind out two winners here.
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  Which is the goal. So first bit on the board.
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  Let's look at a 7:15 PM Eastern. Time first pitch between the
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  Chicago White Sox. And the Toronto Blue.
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  Jays, let's talk line moves, bets, split system matches.
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  I'll give you my play here for this one.
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  So the White Sox come in. 50 and 45 just swept the.
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  Athletics. In the final series prior.
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  To the All Star. Break.
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  They won that series finale 9 to 1 as a minus. 150 home favorite.
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  You know the Jays 45 and 51. Bit of a disappointment after
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  going to the ALCS last year. What do They went to the World
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  Series. They just dropped two of three.
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  Against the Padres lost that series finale 5 to. 4 as a
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  minus. 125 Rd. Favorite.
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  Pitching match up for tonight. The White Sox are going with
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  the. Lefty Anthony K, he's six and
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  four with a 4.23 ERA. You know the Jays are going with
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  the. Righty Spencer Miles.
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  He's four and one with a 2. .85 ERA what?
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  Have we seen across the board here this game open?
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  Toronto around a minus. 130 home favorite.
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  Chicago around a. Plus 110 row.
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  Dog right off the bat kind of fishy, right?
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  Toronto is a Blow 500 Team Chicago.
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  Is an above 500 team. So you'd think, hey.
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  Sharps would, you know, grab. White Sox Plus.
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  Money. Better team might.
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  As well take the. Plus money.
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  That's not what we've seen. We've actually.
• 5:02
  Seen this line go. Further toward Toronto.
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  I like the Jays tonight, guys. We've seen the Jays.
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  Get better up here a little. Bit -130 up to -135 some shops
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  are even touching as high as -140.
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  So that was notable that the sub 500 team.
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  Was. Getting a line move against and
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  above. 500 team now let's dig a little.
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  Bit deeper. The bet splits look.
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  Really good on Toronto. 60% bets, but nearly 70%.
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  Money line dollars at. DK but the circa split really
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  jumped out to. Me at Circa Toronto's getting
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  50% of money line bets. Only half the tickets.
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  But 98% of dollars, so tells me a lot of big money out in Vegas
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  going with Toronto. Here's a system match hinted at
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  this, but. If you're a fishy.
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  Buy low sub 500 home favorite. Facing a sell high.
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  Above 500 opponent. Buying low in those.
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  Situations on the below 5. 100 team against the.
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  Above 500 team. It's been profitable that.
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  System is 55 and 32, this year 63.
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  Percent 8% ROI if you also look at non division.
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  Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year and the
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  opening game of a new series. Those teams are 115 and 6360. 5%
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  with an 8% ROI. This year you also.
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  Look at just in general the. First game back from the All
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  Star break typically. Knock on wood.
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  Favorites have done. Well, in the first game back
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  from the All Star break, they're 195 and one. 1663.
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  Percent, 7% ROI all the way since 2005.
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  That's a 20 plus year sample. If those favorites.
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  In the first game after the break are.
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  Also facing an opponent. Who missed the?
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  Playoffs the previous year, so the Jays would.
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  Match because Chicago. Missed the?
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  Playoffs. The previous year they improved
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  to 157 and 8565. Percent 10% ROI since 2005.
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  Anthony. K by the way, the southpaw at
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  home. He's been pretty good 3 point O
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  6. ERA on the road 5.94 So I want
• 6:53
  to bet against K on the road. I also want to bet against.
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  The White Sox. They're really Jekyll and Hyde.
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  They're. Very good at home on the South
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  side. But on the road. 19 and 28,
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  that's just a 40. Percent win rate.
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  That is the sixth worst. Road record in baseball, so it's
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  kind of fishy. Chicago's got the better record,
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  but lines creeping up slightly toward the Jays.
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  I'm going Toronto here guys, Sharp.
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  Line move tons of good. System matches fade K.
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  Fade the Chai Sox on the road and then also popped open.
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  Juice Rail noticed a 33. Percent Pretty big 33.
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  Percent sharp mush edge in favor of Toronto, so 33% more of the
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  sharper winning betters also going.
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  With the Jays. So first bet for me guys.
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  Let's go Toronto, let's get a win north of the border.
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  I was able. To get the Jays.
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  Boosted they were -135 at Valley bet I got them.
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  Down to -127 so shop around, try to get the best number you can.
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  Next one for you, let's look at. An 8:10 PM.
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  Eastern Time, first pitch. San Diego Padres at the.
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  Kansas City Royals. Now the pods come in. 48 and 48
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  just took two or three though against the Jays.
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  They won that series. Finale 5 to. 4 as a. +105 Home
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  Dog. You know the Royals. 38 and 59.
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  They just got swept. By the.
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  Orioles they dropped. That series finale. 8:00 to 2:00
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  as a. Plus 125 Road Dog.
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  So pitching matchup for tonight, we got the Padres.
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  Going with the ready Michael King, he's six and seven with a
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  3.41 ERA. Meanwhile, the Royals are going
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  to go. With the fellow.
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  Ready. Seth Lugo.
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  He's 3 and. Six with a 4.56.
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  ERA now. What do we see across the
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  market? Well, this game opened mostly
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  around a pick -110 both sides, but I did see a couple shops.
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  Open a little. Bit more bullish.
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  On Kansas City. Few shops open.
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  KC are short. -120 home. Favorite -115 Home.
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  Favorite and regardless of the opener.
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  All movement liability has been steaming the other.
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  Way toward the dads. I'm going dads tonight guys
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  because I am a new proud dad. I've been almost 4 month old.
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  We're actually trying to transition her into her crib in
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  the last few nights. It hasn't gone great.
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  So if. Anyone has any tips?
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  To put your baby. Into the crib.
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  Definitely sounding my way, but anyway.
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  San Diego's gotten steamed up to a. -120.
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  Road favorite Padres have a really good bet.
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  Split 78% Bets 93% dollars at. DK over at circa 80. 9% bets
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  over 95% dollars. So both.
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  DraftKings and Circa are. Showing a pretty good.
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  Low bets, higher dollar. Split on the Padres, which
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  coincides with that line. Move toward the pods.
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  I'm actually seeing a couple shops inch a little bit higher,
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  maybe toward like -125. System matches.
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  Interleague Rd. favorite. In the first game.
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  Of a new series. Padres match those teams.
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  Are 28 and 1664. Percent, 9% ROI this year.
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  Same systems that just lit up on Toronto also lighting up on.
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  On on San Diego. So favorites in the.
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  First game after the All Star break. 63% seven.
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  Percent ROI since O 5 and if they are also playing opponent.
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  Who missed the postseason 65? Percent 10% ROI since O 5.
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  On a back Michael King. He's pitched pretty good in
• 9:57
  July. 2.25 ERA and two starts. He's only giving up three earned
• 10:02
  runs and 12 innings pitched. And.
• 10:04
  During the day, not. Great ERA of nearly 5. 4.98 to
• 10:08
  be exact, but at night. He's got a 2.35.
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  ERA. He's pitching at night here
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  tonight. Meanwhile, Lugo.
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  He posted a. 6.91 ERA in three July.
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  Starts. He gave up eleven earned runs in
• 10:20
  fourteen 1.1 innings. Pitched.
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  I'm also going to want to. Back King because he's extra
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  rested. He hasn't.
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  Pitched in nine days. Versus Lugo, who is?
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  On regular 5 days. Rest so hopefully.
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  King has got. That extra juice?
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  With that extra time off. And then one more system match
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  on the pods they're really good against.
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  Bad teams, Knock on wood, but. When they are facing a below 500
• 10:41
  team like. The Royals here tonight, they've
• 10:43
  gone 26 and 17. 61 percent, 16% ROI.
• 10:49
  So pick a more slight KC favorite opener.
• 10:51
  But we've now flipped. To San Diego. -1. 20 ish on the
• 10:54
  road, good splits rested King hopefully greater than Lugo and
• 10:59
  oh by. The way I noticed a 17% sharp.
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  Mush edge from juice. Reel on the pods and also open
• 11:06
  rhythm. And saw 2.
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  Rhythm recommendations? Both.
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  Lighting up on the pods as well. So second bet from you guys, I
• 11:12
  got San Diego. -117 at. Valley bet, but shop.
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  Around most books, closer now to around -120 last bite of the
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  night. Let's go out West. 9. 40 PM
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  Eastern Time. Where the Washington Nationals
• 11:26
  are visiting the athletics. Are they the Sacramento A's?
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  They're not the Oakland A's. They're not yet the Vegas A's,
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  either. But I'm.
• 11:31
  Going to bet against the A's. I like the.
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  The Nats here tonight, guys. Let's set the stage.
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  The Nats. They come in 48 and. 49.
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  Just got swept. By the Yankees.
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  They lost the series. Finale 5 to 3.
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  As a -. 125 home favorite. You know all the A's 41 and 50.
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  Five they just got. Swept by the white.
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  Sox lost that series finale 9 to one as a + 120.
• 11:52
  Five Rd. Dog So the pitching match up for
• 11:55
  tonight. We got the Nats going with the.
• 11:57
  Ready. Cade Cavalli, He's five and
• 11:59
  four, 3.83 ERA. You know all the A's are going
• 12:02
  to go with the lefty gauge jump. He's 3 and 4.
• 12:06
  With a 3.51 year right now. What have we seen here?
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  Across the market, well this game open at basically a pick
• 12:12
  em. Was around -110.
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  Both sides and sharps clearly have sided with.
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  The Nationals, because the Nationals have gone from a
• 12:19
  minus. 110 Road pick em. Now up to a -, 135 Rd.
• 12:23
  Favorite so big Steam? Hitting Washington, moving that.
• 12:26
  Line. Pretty big in their.
• 12:27
  Favor like $0.20. We've seen some good.
• 12:30
  Splits on the Nats at circa. 67% money line bets 84.
• 12:34
  Percent money line dollars, so a.
• 12:36
  Really good low bets, higher dollar split.
• 12:38
  From the Sharps in Vegas on the Nats.
• 12:40
  Interleague Rd. Favorite in the first game of a
• 12:42
  new series, this. Just matched with SAN.
• 12:44
  Diego it. Matches with the Nats as well
• 12:46
  that system. Is 28 and 1664.
• 12:49
  Percent, 9% ROI. This year.
• 12:52
  If you look at Washington, hopefully their bats.
• 12:55
  Can get to jump. And and pace them.
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  To a win here. Another.
• 12:58
  Advantage here is Nick Kurtz still hurt?
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  For the A's really good player, Washington is hitting 250.
• 13:04
  They've scored 500. And sixteen runs.
• 13:06
  On the flip side. The A's are hitting 243.
• 13:09
  They've only scored 422. Runs and they're missing again.
• 13:12
  Their best player Nats. Rating 269 against lefties.
• 13:15
  That's. Second best in.
• 13:16
  Baseball facing a lefty. Tonight and jump has been great
• 13:20
  on the road. 0.7. 5 ERA, but at. Home 6. .2 O.
• 13:24
  He's at home tonight. And then get a load of this home
• 13:26
  Rd. Really screams the Nats.
• 13:29
  Washington is. 28 and 18 on the Road 61.
• 13:31
  Percent win rate. That's the third best Rd.
• 13:34
  record. In baseball, the A's are just 15
• 13:36
  and 26. At home, that's a 30. 7% win
• 13:39
  rate. That is the worst.
• 13:41
  Home record in baseball. So we have a.
• 13:43
  Good steam move. In favor of Washington, we got
• 13:46
  the splits. Hopefully the.
• 13:48
  Bats of Washington. Who?
• 13:49
  They typically hammer lefties can get the jump.
• 13:52
  I'm going to go with the good Rd. team here.
• 13:54
  Nats against the bad home team the.
• 13:55
  A's. Lastly, popped open rhythm.
• 13:58
  Noticed one rhythm recommendation lighting up on
• 14:01
  Washington. So shop around guys, I got the
• 14:03
  Nats -1. 30 at the score. But most books.
• 14:06
  Closer now to -130 so -135 I should.
• 14:10
  Say so, Blue Jays, Padres. Nationals.
• 14:14
  Let's try to get two of those if we can.
• 14:16
  Eek out a winning day now. As I told you, All Star Break,
• 14:20
  what does it mean? It means baseball's about to
• 14:22
  heat up it. Also means.
• 14:23
  Football is not far off. So I did want to mention just a
• 14:26
  couple win totals get you excited you.
• 14:28
  Can play them with me. You can tail fade, do what you
• 14:30
  like, but at least it's something to think.
• 14:32
  About because before. You know it, we will.
• 14:33
  Be betting the NFL. So I'm just going to read to
• 14:36
  you, make it real. Simple and easy.
• 14:38
  I'll read. To you, my 3.
• 14:39
  Write UPS as well. As a few other teams.
• 14:41
  That caught my eye in. Terms of their win total.
• 14:43
  And you can you. Can you know?
• 14:44
  Chew on them. See what you think.
• 14:46
  So mentioned a second ago with my kind of style perspective
• 14:50
  when it comes to win totals. I'm trying to continue to be
• 14:53
  data-driven. I'm looking at what did the wind
• 14:55
  total open at at the time. It opened.
• 14:57
  Where was the juice? Was it leaning 1?
• 14:58
  Way or the other. Then.
• 14:59
  You give it a. Month, two months, couple
• 15:01
  months. OK, how has it moved since then?
• 15:03
  Did we see the wind total? You know, get juiced.
• 15:05
  Up, over or under? Did it rise up full game or a
• 15:08
  half game? Most importantly, where the bet
• 15:10
  splits. Telling me where the sharp
• 15:12
  money's. At So with that being said.
• 15:14
  Here are three. Teams taking sharp action.
• 15:17
  Either over. Or under their wind.
• 15:18
  Total first one no. Surprise.
• 15:21
  The Rams Rams over 11 1/2 wins -140.
• 15:26
  Juiced up. At Bet MGM, the Rams finished
• 15:29
  12. And five last year they earned a
• 15:31
  wild. Card berth out of the NFC West.
• 15:33
  LA beat the. Panthers, 3430.
• 15:35
  One in the. Wild card round.
• 15:36
  I remember Panthers. Covered.
• 15:37
  That was nice. They edged the Bears. 20 to 17
• 15:40
  and. Overtime in the divisional
• 15:41
  round, that was nice because. The Bears covered that one.
• 15:43
  I remember they did lose a heartbreaker to the Seahawks. 31
• 15:46
  to 27 in the. NFC Championship Game.
• 15:49
  Now LA. Loaded up this offseason.
• 15:51
  You don't need me to remind you. Mostly on defense.
• 15:54
  Adding Miles Garrett, they added Trent Mcduffie and Jalen Watson
• 15:57
  to bolster their defensive. Back, you know, secondary.
• 16:01
  And if that weren't enough, I'm seeing rumors that Aaron Donald
• 16:04
  may unretire. And join the team.
• 16:06
  We'll see how. If that develops or not, but Can
• 16:08
  you imagine, you know Aaron Donald and you know Miles
• 16:11
  Garrett on the same? Line, Most importantly, coach,
• 16:14
  quarterback. You still have Stafford, You
• 16:15
  still have McVey. Here's where it gets.
• 16:17
  Good though. The Rams.
• 16:18
  Win total this offseason opened at. 10 1/2.
• 16:21
  Over -140 Remember they went. 12:00 and 5:00 last.
• 16:25
  Year, however, over the Aussie offseason.
• 16:29
  It went from 10. And 1/2 / -, 140.
• 16:31
  To. 11 1/2. Over -140.
• 16:34
  So not only has it. Risen a full game, but odds
• 16:36
  makers are. Still.
• 16:38
  Forcing you to pay. A premium to bet the over like
• 16:40
  typically if you open 10. And a half, you're up to 11 1/2.
• 16:42
  You'll probably be juiced. Under like 11.
• 16:44
  And a half under. -140 because you're always going to be
• 16:47
  juiced. Back toward kind of.
• 16:48
  Where you came from off of a big move.
• 16:50
  That's not the case. Which kind of makes.
• 16:52
  Me like this. One total more, even though it's
• 16:53
  risen a full. Game it's still juiced over
• 16:56
  here's where it gets even better the.
• 16:57
  Over is getting 59% of bets but 95% of dollars.
• 17:03
  So really good sharp bets. But on the over tells me a lot
• 17:06
  of big money is on the Rams to win 12 games or more.
• 17:09
  So the question is. You know the Rams.
• 17:11
  Went 12:00 and 5:00 last year. Can they just be the same?
• 17:14
  12:00 and 5:00 Well, you'd assume they're better with Miles
• 17:17
  Garrett, Trent Mcduffie. Jalen Watson and maybe Aaron
• 17:20
  Donald. Their strength to schedule.
• 17:22
  Not that hard. It's 13th hardest in.
• 17:24
  Football, so you're kind of middle of the pack, but again.
• 17:28
  You know I. Hate to just jump on a popular
• 17:30
  win total. With the betting market is
• 17:31
  showing Rams to win 12 games, that looks like it's taking in
• 17:34
  some smart money. Second win total for you?
• 17:37
  The Bears Chicago Bears under. 9 1/2 wins -120 surprisingly,
• 17:44
  because you know. I assumed and I thought.
• 17:46
  Hey, bears are. You know, they're, they're on
• 17:48
  the rise, they're getting better, but no.
• 17:50
  Maybe some? Regression bears went. 11:00 and
• 17:52
  6:00 last. Year won The NFC North beat the
• 17:55
  Packers 3127. In the wild card round, again
• 17:57
  lost to the Rams. 20 to 17 and. Overtime in the divisional
• 18:00
  round. The market is thinking Chicago
• 18:02
  could take a step back this year and.
• 18:04
  There's one big reason here in a second.
• 18:05
  I'll tell you Chicago's win total open. 9 1/2 the under was
• 18:09
  -120 since that time. We've now seen the under go.
• 18:13
  And F. Under -125 so there's been more
• 18:16
  liability. In terms of the juice, there's
• 18:18
  more. It's now more.
• 18:18
  Expensive to play the. Under, but here's where.
• 18:21
  It gets interesting the under. Is only getting 29%.
• 18:24
  Of bets but 80% of dollars. That is a huge.
• 18:27
  Bet split in favor of the under, so flip it the other way. 71% of
• 18:31
  bets are. Going over yet the.
• 18:33
  Under is getting juiced up and becoming more expensive.
• 18:35
  It's kind of a. Reverse line move under a
• 18:37
  situation. Big reason for.
• 18:39
  The under action, the Bears have the number one.
• 18:43
  Hardest schedule next year? Their opponents posted a
• 18:46
  combined 550, winning. Percentage last season so.
• 18:50
  Again, they're going up against a really, really difficult
• 18:51
  schedule. They also.
• 18:53
  Lost DJ Moore wide. Out center.
• 18:56
  Drew Dahlman, Safety Kevin. Byard, so you didn't really add
• 19:00
  too much you lost. Again, DJ Moore is an important.
• 19:02
  Player, but to me. This is kind of not.
• 19:05
  Saying the bears are going to be bad, it's just that.
• 19:06
  They're going. To have a really hard schedule.
• 19:08
  And the betting market is thinking I'll maybe they go 9:00
• 19:10
  and 7:00 or nine and eight with the 17.
• 19:13
  Game season. Now that's notable.
• 19:15
  To me that hey. Bears a team that theoretically
• 19:18
  is. On the rise under 9 1/2 if they
• 19:21
  win 9 or less. Don't.
• 19:23
  Don't say you were surprised because betting market.
• 19:25
  Likes the under there This one is a team that is probably going
• 19:29
  to be bad, but. Might even be really bad the
• 19:31
  Miami. Dolphins Under 4 1/2 wins at
• 19:34
  -130 Dolphins went 7 and 10. Last year, third.
• 19:38
  Place in the AFC East missed the playoffs.
• 19:41
  Betty Market. Thinks they're going to be.
• 19:42
  Even worse this year because their win total.
• 19:45
  Is 4 and a. Half only the.
• 19:46
  Arizona Cardinals. Are lower at 3 1/2.
• 19:49
  Miami's win. Total they open at 4:00.
• 19:51
  And a half it's still. 4 1/2 but that's when you got to pay
• 19:54
  attention to the juice. And the splits because it
• 19:56
  opened. 4 1/2. -110 both sides now it is 4 1/2 under -130 so
• 20:02
  it's become more expensive to play the under and then check
• 20:05
  check out these bet. Splits 68.
• 20:07
  Percent of bets, 98% of dollars are on the under Miami has the.
• 20:12
  Second hardest. Strength to schedule, so again,
• 20:15
  playing a team to go under their win total because they have a
• 20:17
  really tough schedule, their opponents from last.
• 20:19
  Year posted A5. 42 win percentage.
• 20:22
  And really with Miami, it's where.
• 20:24
  Are they going to? Get their.
• 20:25
  Offense they lost. To a.
• 20:28
  They. Have Malik Willis.
• 20:29
  Now under center, but aside. From Devin HN is really good.
• 20:33
  This is who they're starting three wide.
• 20:34
  Receivers are guys Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and.
• 20:38
  Malik Washington, I mean. That's got to be the worst.
• 20:40
  Wide receiving. Core in the NFL.
• 20:42
  So not a lot of offense, you know, new.
• 20:45
  Quarterback, they still have the.
• 20:46
  Same coach who they didn't fire. McDaniel.
• 20:49
  But the betting market? Is thinking Miami, you know 4
• 20:52
  and 13. Could be a really, really bad
• 20:54
  team and it makes. Matters worse that.
• 20:56
  They have a really hard schedule to 2nd.
• 20:58
  Hardest schedule, so under 4 1/2 of the Dolphins taking us some
• 21:01
  smart money now some other. Team that just caught my eye in
• 21:04
  terms of, you know, sharp splits and line.
• 21:06
  Movement. Raiders over 5 1/2 wins and went
• 21:10
  from. Plus 1/20 to minus 15586.
• 21:13
  Percent bets. 94% dollars on the over so smart money on the
• 21:16
  Raiders to win six or more smart money on the Bucks.
• 21:20
  Under 8 1/2 wins. It went from plus 1/20 to now
• 21:23
  -130 with 60. 6% bets. 83% dollars on the under.
• 21:28
  So smart money. On the Bucks to win 8 or.
• 21:30
  Fewer games. Saints.
• 21:32
  Maybe they'll be. Decent this year over 7 1/2.
• 21:35
  Wins it was. -1 O 5 Now it's -125. 84% bets 89.
• 21:40
  Percent dollars on the over. So sharp.
• 21:42
  Action on the. Saints to an 8 or more Texans
• 21:45
  A-Team, I already bet. Because.
• 21:47
  They were the team. I wrote about.
• 21:48
  In the Visen NFL. Betting guide.
• 21:50
  But over 9 1/2 wins, it was -115 now it's -125. 88% bets. 91%
• 21:56
  dollars on the over smart money Texans.
• 21:59
  Ten wins or more, Broncos. Over 9.
• 22:02
  And a half wins -115 to -125 eighty 6% bets 97% dollars on
• 22:08
  the over. So short money on Broncos to win
• 22:11
  10 or more, The Lions over 10. And a half wins can they get?
• 22:15
  11 or the over. 'S gone from minus. 125 to -1
• 22:18
  thirty 79% bets, 91% dollars on the over.
• 22:23
  And lastly, the Bengals over 9 1/2 wins.
• 22:26
  It was -110 now it's -155. 85. Percent bets 97% dollars on the
• 22:32
  over so smart money on Bengals to win 10 or more so.
• 22:36
  You can pick and. Choose you can wait and see how
• 22:39
  the dust settles. Between now and, you know,
• 22:41
  opening day. But those are.
• 22:43
  Some wind tolls that caught my eye.
• 22:44
  Get us thinking about. The NFL.
• 22:46
  And kind of the thought process of making data.
• 22:48
  Driven futures bets. So that about does it for
• 22:52
  episode 550. Of the all systems go sports
• 22:55
  betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 22:57
  This is the part. Of the pod where we wrap things
• 22:59
  up and I always start first by saying.
• 23:01
  Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 23:03
  you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in.
• 23:05
  The arena with me. Every single day, through the
• 23:07
  UPS and the downs. The wins, the losses, the hot.
• 23:09
  Streaks. The cold streaks.
• 23:11
  We're always trying. To make data-driven bets with
• 23:12
  our head and not our heart, and always trying to grind out a
• 23:15
  winning day, which is always the.
• 23:16
  Goal But if you do enjoy the pod, you value the insights
• 23:19
  hopefully. Please could you help me grow
• 23:21
  this podcast? Just give it a five star review
• 23:23
  on iTunes or Spotify if you want to click.
• 23:26
  The follow button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
• 23:28
  Retweet or like the pod when I put.
• 23:30
  It out on Twitter. Any or all those things would be
• 23:32
  very much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 23:36
  sports betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian
• 23:39
  betting focusing on line. Movement bets split system
• 23:42
  matches focusing on the numbers and what the betting market is
• 23:45
  telling us, not what our bias is telling us.
• 23:47
  This style of. Betting has appealed.
• 23:48
  To you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting.
• 23:51
  Or maybe you have someone in your life who could, you know?
• 23:53
  Be helped out, be aided by being introduced to the the
• 23:56
  data-driven. Style.
• 23:57
  Well, I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 24:01
  everything guide to. Sports betting or better yet,
• 24:03
  type in the NFL. Sharp betting playbook Those are
• 24:06
  the 2. Books that I've written.
• 24:08
  Very proud of. Both, but if you want to grab
• 24:09
  one or both of my books, bring them the sports.
• 24:12
  Book. I'll sign them.
• 24:13
  For you and. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 24:15
  ale. We'll sweat some games together
• 24:16
  tonight next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 24:19
  Juice? Reel yet my two favorite sports.
• 24:20
  Betting apps, they help me win. They're going to help you win.
• 24:23
  Rhythm is great for their AI backed.
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  Models and predictions for game bets and player props, as well
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  as juice. Reel so many great features you
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  can get the Robo Jackson. Best bet picks sharp mush
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  indicators arbitrage play Shop for the best sign futures, Sync
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  up your sports books, Get a running.
• 24:37
  Report card of your. Action, but more importantly.
• 24:40
  You can support. The pod.
• 24:41
  Via Juice Reel. By subscribing to my ASG podcast
• 24:46
  Juice Reel page. You'll get my best.
• 24:48
  Bets as soon as I play them, you get them.
• 24:50
  Immediately and you'll get them way before the pod.
• 24:52
  Hopefully you'll beat some. Closing lines.
• 24:54
  And again this. Podcast is free, so if you value
• 24:56
  the insights you want to tip your podcast host, I help you
• 24:59
  become a bit of a sharper better and cash some.
• 25:01
  Tickets, you know, sign up to get some some.
• 25:04
  Best bet picks you can get them. For $9.99 for a week.
• 25:08
  Or 24. Dollars and $0.99 for a month.
• 25:11
  So if you get, you know, basically.
• 25:12
  Best bets for a week for? 10.
• 25:14
  Bucks that's $1.42 a day. You get best.
• 25:17
  Bets for a month. For 25 bucks that's 83.
• 25:19
  Cents a day. And just know that.
• 25:21
  You are helping me pay for my daughter.
• 25:23
  'S upcoming childcare. But download rhythm and
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  download. Juice field give them.
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  Both a five star review in the app.
• 25:28
  Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
• 25:31
  If you don't have one, you need. One, it's such a.
• 25:33
  Critical tool. You got to be able to track the.
• 25:35
  Market in real time. You can't be late.
• 25:36
  To the party. You got to see when.
• 25:38
  Lines are moving. They get lit up.
• 25:39
  In red. Got a you know.
• 25:41
  Track line movement in general. Open to current.
• 25:43
  The opening column. Compared to all the current odds
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  on the right. Look at.
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  Shopping for the best number live in game wagering odds?
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  You can do it all with odds logic.
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  It's the best live odds page around.
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  I highly recommend it. I use it.
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  Everyday if you want to give it a shot, I got a special link for
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  youoddslogic.com. Slash Josh 123 that's going to
• 26:03
  give. You a. 7 day free trial and 50%.
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  Off your first month. So that about does it for
• 26:07
  episode 550 of the. ASG pod as always.
• 26:10
  Two final thoughts, one whether I see you at.
• 26:12
  The Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island.
• 26:15
  The Brook of new. Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan.
• 26:17
  Sun down in Connecticut. At the encore in.
• 26:19
  Boston plain Ridge park casino MGM Springfield or the Nash and
• 26:23
  my neck of the. Woods on the border of
• 26:24
  Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, they're out in
• 26:27
  the. Desert where the true grinders
• 26:28
  get down, or Billy Walter sends his.
• 26:29
  Number runners with Lois. Juice possible.
• 26:31
  Is found at the South point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 26:34
  plays jumping in the. Stadium swimming pool.
• 26:36
  When you catch a big. Ticket at Circa wherever it may
• 26:38
  be you're. Going to walk.
• 26:39
  Up to me, hopefully. Show me two out of three.
• 26:42
  Jays, Padres, Nats. 1st. One's on me.
• 26:45
  Next one's on you again. We'll post about the book.
• 26:48
  It's a Friday night in the middle of summer.
• 26:50
  Let's get some nachos. I don't know some some Cracker
• 26:53
  Jacks. And popcorn.
• 26:54
  We'll sweat some games together. But.
• 26:56
  As always guys coming off a winning All Star break, losing
• 26:58
  All Star break, good day, bad day, hot streak, cold streak.
• 27:01
  We can't get too high when things are good or too.
• 27:04
  Low and things aren't going our way we just.
• 27:05
  Got to stick. To the.
• 27:07
  Model stick to the blueprint. We got to find.
• 27:09
  Games that fit our. Philosophy and then just.
• 27:11
  Layoff. The games that don't games are.
• 27:14
  Against the public, with the House, with the.
• 27:15
  Pros flat that avoid. Parlays.
• 27:18
  And get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 27:21
  to be successful sports winners. So if everyone has a great
• 27:24
  Friday guys, hope you have an even better weekend.
• 27:27
  And I'll see you back on Monday. For episode. 551.
• 27:31
  Of the all systems. Go sports betting.
• 27:33
  Podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck.
• 27:35
  Everybody. And have a great.
• 27:37
  Great weekend.