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Aug 21 | Commodity Week · Commodity Week

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: This is the August 21 edition of Commodity Week. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Brian Stark.
• 0:19
  He's with the Andersons in Mansfield, Illinois. Dave Chatterton is here with Strategic Farm Marketing out of Champaign, Illinois. And we're joined by Kurt Kimmel of agmarket.net in Normal, Illinois. Commodity week is a production of Illinois public media, public radio for the farming world online at willag.org, willag.0rg. Next week, we'll be at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur.
• 0:43
  Our commodity week programs run daily at 10:00. The farm doc team is there at 11:30, and the crop scientists are with us on stage in the University of Illinois tent at 11AM. The full schedule is online at willag.org. Check it each day. We have many folks that'll be dropping by, and we'd like to see you there as well.
• 1:04
  Again, the calendar all in red in the calendar. You'll find what's happening in the University of Illinois tent each and every day at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. Let's begin with Kurt Kimmel who, will be making his way to the Farm Progress Show next week. Thank you very much for doing that. This week, however, we need to talk about the Pro Farmer crop tour, which took place.
• 1:31
  By the time this airs, we'll have the final numbers from Pro Farmer, which will be their national and statewide numbers. They differ widely from what you see on the crop tour because they do a lot of adjustments. However, what do you think of the numbers that have been coming out of crop tour to this point?
• 1:49
  Curt Kimmel: Well well, the bean podcaster is huge. Man, if you go ahead and finish off good shape. We'll have a fairly larger bean crop on that. There is some sudden death, some stem rot. The thing on this, some of these fungus and diseases are a little earlier than usual.
• 2:06
  It feels a little later here in September, but it can maybe take a little bit off the top. But the biggest observation probably is in the corn, that southern rust. And watching some of the videos, and I don't think they were AI altered, but some of those participants come out orange and there's heavy rust. I'm not quite for sure some of those participants went to the hardware store to get some WD-forty to spray the shuck to loosen it up to count the kernels. I mean, I was really surprised how thick that is, particularly in Iowa.
• 2:39
  So let's see how that unfolds in through here. Guys are really testing the fungicide here on longevity of it and whether they sprayed or not. The other thing too is I heard some guys went a little heavier on population, so the ear counts are fairly good in some areas. And the bottom line is we still have a little bit of time here. We'll just have to see how the crop finishes out.
• 3:05
  Todd Gleason: In the state of Illinois, the USDA put this year's crop at 221 bushels to the acre. That was on August 1. The crop scouts on their tour, which includes not Southern Illinois, so it takes in the best two thirds, maybe 80% of the state, really, I guess, the upper half for them when you look at their routes. They're at one ninety nine plus about four and a half bushels, so they're around two zero four, roughly speaking, for a statewide average. Do you think it's only that good, really?
• 3:41
  Brian Stark: Yeah. I think that's probably true. I think, obviously, you mentioned that they make adjustments here. We'll get to final state yield, but certainly, over the last two or three weeks in East Central Illinois where it's been dry, Kurt mentioned disease even in this area. Rust has been a a big issue, and I think it's too early to tell how much of a negative impact it is, but the disease pressures run rampant.
• 4:05
  You generally see that when you have wet and warm conditions earlier around pollination and now we've entered a period of dry weather. So to me, it feels like everyone we've talked to feels like the crop size, while good, is not as big as last year's in an Illinois sector.
• 4:21
  Todd Gleason: Brian Stark, of course, is with the Andersons. Dave Chatterton, when you think about that number that came out from USDA that was looking at the crop sites on August 1, do you think nationally that's the biggest number we might come up with for the year? Where do you suppose the September figure might land?
• 4:39
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. Always a little bit of a of a, you know, spin the wheel type of a deal with USDA, but I think we're in a position where the market when you when you kinda back off and maybe look at the bigger picture of the pro farmer numbers in general, we've been talking about Illinois. When you look at them in general, I think the market wanted to look at two things. One, I think there was the the confirmation that the record yield potential that the USDA indicated in the August report was going to be there. And I think we checked that box.
• 5:03
  I think there's no doubt about that, particularly in the Western Corn Belt as Kurt alluded to. I think the second thing that that the trade was really looking for in terms of price was, are these yields actually gonna go higher? And there was a a lot of talk. Big crops get bigger. USDA, you know, has a tendency to walk this crop up.
• 5:19
  I think there's a big question mark about that. And, I think the price action to this point would tell you that the market is betting the under, that the yields actually from the USDA probably will have to soften going forward. Illinois is the prime example for that crop for that, Todd. I mean, I was on a crop tour last week. I was in Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and then back to Illinois.
• 5:42
  And I can tell you that we're the driest area of that entire, you know, that entire trip. And the fact that the ProFarmers finding numbers below last year in corn in Illinois isn't, I don't think, too big of a surprise. So, you know, that's a great example where to get to that record deal that the USDA is talking about that one eighty eight plus type of a number, need a lot of things to go right. And if Illinois is not gonna pull the lever, you know, the West can make up for some degree of that. But not saying we have a bad crop.
• 6:08
  I'm not saying we don't have a record crop, but I think the high watermark is in.
• 6:11
  Todd Gleason: I wondered about that thinking about what Ohio and Indiana, those numbers coming out of those two states to begin with and that Illinois was probably pivotal because the West was just gonna pick up whatever Ohio and Indiana, which are smaller states in corn production for sure. Ohio, I think, is eight or nine. They're well down the line. Indiana, right, ranks five or six depending on what year it is. Kansas sometime is in front of them, which tells you a lot about the size of Indiana as well.
• 6:42
  When you take all of that into consideration, Illinois being pivotal, if Illinois comes out with a quick yield, not the two twenty one, but they come out with, let's say, a record yield at two eleven again, or even if they're at the two zero four, how big is that national yield? Are we at one eighty six or seven rather than one nearly 89?
• 7:11
  Brian Stark: Yeah. I think, the yield overall, it's gonna be hard even with Illinois coming down with the way the Western Corn Belt is set up today to drop too much. So, you know, low end might be one eighty four in my mind today. It feels like with what we're seeing. But, again, I think the big variable always is, and maybe the populations as Kurt alluded to, will help offset this.
• 7:30
  But what this disease pressure is really gonna do as we finish the crop, I think that's the unknown variable that is not able to be predicted until the combines roll through the field here in late September and October. But irregardless, I stand the fact that it feels like this crop is a new record. It's just a question of how big of a record it will be.
• 7:49
  Todd Gleason: So the trade in Chicago is determining on the futures how big the crop is. However, the elevator system is making a different sort of hedge, relatively speaking, on it's a big crop, and we have to figure out how to put it and the soybeans away, and that's gonna be hard on basis already is. Yeah.
• 8:08
  Brian Stark: I think you've seen, like, some of the major processors, Decatur, 33 under the x, which is the cheapest I can remember them being this early in the in the year, just trying to figure out how without a soybean export program, no China, you know, what that interior demand and what they're able to absorb is gonna be. We talked a little bit about it before the show that it feels like with the farmer undersold today to generate cash even with a weaker basis, they probably still lean into soybeans. They have to move in selling soybeans across the scale simply to generate cash because they can move and generate cash in a smaller volume. So I think that's gonna pressure bean basis could be much uglier than corn, but corn is gonna be awfully wide, if some of these, record breaking crops come to fruition.
• 8:52
  Todd Gleason: When you talk to producers about which crop they need to put in the bin for storage, when they have space that they really feel like they can swap out, what are you telling them? Well, basically,
• 9:04
  Curt Kimmel: like Brian alluded there, they're gonna move beans. Beans is a natural one to move. They like to hang on or store corn. A lot of guys have gone to some alternative storage options, bags. Ethan in our office, he had to drive clear to Minnesota to get a bagging machine because there's just none around.
• 9:23
  There's some in Canada, but he was worried about getting back into The US, so he naturally went to Minnesota there. But yeah, it's a matter of finding some storage and be able to ride the storm out here.
• 9:37
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. I mean, to Kurt's point, think, know, beans are the natural, beans are the traditional fallback. I think producers should be aware of and taking a look at what's available, you know, maybe storing corn temporarily in what would normally, you know, outside in a bag or or or a pile and and using utilizing what would normally be corn space for soybeans. When you look at these cash carries even into just November, let alone December or January, some very big numbers here. And, you know, good, Maybe a point to think about that we haven't talked about.
• 10:05
  You even talk about futures and, you know, the crop estimates and when the market bottom and take, you know, good example of the corn market last year. These corn bottomed on August 26. We're right in that time period. But a futures bottom and a cash bottom are two very different things. And, you know, looking at the logistical challenges that we're going to have this year now, one good thing we have, commercial space is mostly empty, but it's going to fill very quickly and, based on this size of the crop.
• 10:31
  So look at your alternative options. Do you know, it's time to get creative. It's time to do things that maybe you're outside of your comfort zone or think about it anyway. And, you know, that bagger that Kurt mentioned, I mean, it's like talking about, the election COVID politics. Some people love them, some people hate them, very polarizing subject, but, you know, nontraditional.
• 10:49
  Maybe it's filling your fertilizer shed. Maybe it's doing something a little a little out of whack. But when you can pick up $30.40, 50¢ of carry in a matter of thirty, forty five, or sixty days in a in a margin environment that we're in currently with with kind of low commodity prices, definitely have to be flexible here.
• 11:05
  Todd Gleason: I'd like to ask you a little bit, Brian, about logistics and basis and natural barriers across The United States, the rivers. So the Mississippi, the Illinois, the Ohio. Because sometimes you can really see from one side of the river to the other. There is a a basis difference. Just the the river seems to be a natural spot for basis to change.
• 11:31
  Can you tell me when there is a huge crop in the Western United States, what it does to basis, and logistically, how that changes?
• 11:40
  Brian Stark: Yeah. I think the biggest thing is is you look at the Western Corn Belt, and, obviously, that tends to have a pull. When you have no export program or a minimal export program, booked out The Gulf, say, for soybeans, you could see cheap basis, up to South Dakota, North Dakota, dollar 50, dollar 60 under start to be competitive to the river, and that ends up influencing not just the overall space at the elevator, the processor interior in the Eastern Corn Belt basis, but also the fact that now the elevator in the East starts to feel pressure because they're not as competitive with some of the Western bushels that start to work East. And I think that is a big risk that we're gonna see. Obviously, without a big book, in The Gulf, for soybeans, you don't have that program.
• 12:23
  We're already seeing the Delta, come off with some of their crop, moving to the river, and that's had some pressure with a lack of of demand. And the one bright spot, if I flip the script a little bit, is that our corn program continues to be very robust. We saw big export numbers for the new crop, compete. Brazil, Argentina continue to be at a premium to The US offers out front. So that is a good positive for the demand standpoint to support basis to what Dave was saying.
• 12:52
  If you could ride the storm out the next thirty to sixty days on the basis side, you might be able to
• 12:57
  Todd Gleason: pick up some really good cash carry. There was a good futures market on Thursday for soybeans, particularly for soybean oil. I suppose it may have to do something with an announcement coming Friday from Washington DC. I don't know whether we have very much information about that. Did you hear anything?
• 13:16
  What are the rumors as they're related to those issues?
• 13:20
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. What you're referencing is the the small refinery exemption. I believe there's a 196 exemptions on that list or, you know, pending exemptions, I should say, that go all the way back to 2016. And then Reuters and Bloomberg, Bigwire services both reported today that the EPA is ready to make announcement on those waivers as early as tomorrow, and that it will be speculation is that it will be a little more favorable maybe for the ag side than what we initially thought, and that ignited a soybean rally today. If some of those exemptions, aren't aren't granted, it it helps us, you know, with a higher biofuel mandate, and blending requirement that, you know, we're we're still in the bullish side of the crush and the oil demand.
• 14:02
  So we will see how that plays out. When you look at soybeans to your point, Todd, I mean, we're 75, 76 off of that low that we made in early August. We're the highest level we've been in beans in seven weeks since the mid June. And certainly for farmers who need to make catch up sales to Brian's point, and particularly in beans, you know, you need to be paying attention. I'm not saying, you know, picking a top is pretty much useless here, but, you you know, you have to be able to take some small victories in this market and to you know, one more, you know, point on the logistics that he said.
• 14:32
  I think it's complicated further this year, the fact that China has bought zero new crop beans. And in doing so, that's normally a very strong PNW market that helps lift some of that Western crop away in that Northwestern Belt. This year that there's no bid going to the PNW for beans. So those beans are gonna compete in our system, in our river system, in our rail, in our processing system, and add even a little additional pressure. So, I mean, be aware of those factors and and how you're planning things and and and how basis can be dynamic here.
• 15:00
  Todd Gleason: Can you clarify for me why it is that the small refinery exemption, which has to do mostly with ethanol actually, all with ethanol because ethanol producers would have an impact on soybean oil. Is it about the advanced biofuel that substitutes into the, biofuel space that sometimes that that ethanol fills sometimes in the advanced side?
• 15:29
  Brian Stark: Yeah. I think that's probably correct. I think, obviously, as you mentioned, it's mostly tied to the corn based side, but I think that the fact the advanced when you talk about renewable diesel and some of the initiatives that you're seeing with the oil, I think that's a component of why the the that's our weight potential waivers are such a big deal to the bean market. The one thing I will also add on to what Dave has said, the bean market, we have to be cautious. I think beans as a whole, because of the, the RVO and what that all means long term, are stronger to find what true value is because while oil is potentially a very bullish item, we've talked about before meal is kind of the the deadweight, potentially hanging down on the market because, obviously, you you don't generate 60% of your bean is meal.
• 16:17
  So, obviously, we have to figure out long term what that means for meal demand even if we have a bullish oil scenario and where beans fit in the whole spectrum. You cannot store meal nearly as long as some other products, and so I think that could be a challenge to figure out where fair value is for soybeans. Renewable volume obligations or the RVOs, the oil and the meal, of course,
• 16:39
  Todd Gleason: the products of the crush from the soybean, and the meal can be shipped overseas. Difficult because we don't have the rail lines coming out of the Western Corn Belt yet, really, headed towards the P And W. So the meal's gonna pile up somewhere, I suppose, and it's just gonna be a drag.
• 16:59
  Brian Stark: Yeah. It's gonna be a drag. I think that's the biggest, thing that is yet to be determined. I think that's why it's been hard even with the projected tight carryout, that we saw with the acreage shift here a week or so ago, with beans losing acres that kinda ignite a little bit of a friendliness with the projected carryout and strong demand, but you still have this product, a meal that is is a deadweight trying to figure out what we do with it to offload it if we are really gonna crush more beans for oil.
• 17:25
  Todd Gleason: On the acreage changes, Brian reminded me there's more corn acres out there, and USDA still put that record yield on this crop despite the fact that they're in more marginal areas or some of them are, of course. It looks like those areas are gonna really produce. Again, I come back to the idea is the West going to overcompensate for everything that might be going on East Of The Mississippi River.
• 17:55
  Curt Kimmel: Well, they they say as you drive through Nebraska, you can't see where their irrigation pivots are because the ends are just as green. So, yeah, it's gonna be a fairly good crop as a whole. I don't know how you can have record, record yields when you've got some holes around, but we're fixing to find out. But one thing you've got to remember too with this disease issue is the question of test weight. And so when you start messing with test weight later on, which we don't know now, that can probably be a big factor too.
• 18:26
  When you look at where we are, probably national yield, they won't probably address it until the January report. It's last year in January report they dropped the corn yield of four bushels an acre. The JSA team feels we're kinda at a one eighty five area when you factor all this stuff in at the moment.
• 18:44
  Todd Gleason: I will say that because the crop is so good and test weights may vary from one place to the other, When farmers store all of this crop on their farm in the bin, they probably won't know how many bushels they have. They'll have an idea, but they could be way off because test weight will make them way off. It's a 30,000 bushel bin, but how many bushels are really in there if it's test weighted 58 bushel or 58 pounds? And so these are things that will keep this a mystery probably all the way, I guess, through, well, next fall. They might be okay in January, but that's a survey of farmers, relatively speaking, of what what they think their crop size was.
• 19:34
  So there there's a lot of variables still coming in this marketplace.
• 19:38
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. And to your point, I think, you know, this year is a great example. I think what we found out is there was a lot of naysaying in the commercial circles about corn in the USDA got the crop wrong and had to be bigger than indicated because basis and spreads were so weak in the old crop through the spring, the summer, and it really into the fall. And I think our view on that is that what happened is actually the performance of corn was better. The starch content was better, so the ethanol yields were better.
• 20:04
  The feed conversions were better. All the ways that we use corn, it took less corn to get to those those, those issues. So you're gonna reverse that this year. If we have this light test, you're actually gonna create a little bit of additional demand, and it can add up to 200, 250, 300,000,000 bushels over time, but you're not gonna know that until probably well into next year. So, you know, can it be an issue?
• 20:27
  Yeah. Is it an issue that's gonna affect prices probably here between now and the first of the year? You know? Not unless we have some pretty dramatic problems, I don't think.
• 20:35
  Todd Gleason: So I hauled off a 58. He's down at 52 on some of those pounds. Number two yellow corn is 56 unless it's in the export market where it's £54 when you ship it overseas. The elevator really does know what they put in in the bin Mhmm. Because they have weights.
• 20:57
  Mhmm. That that makes a difference, I suppose, on the elevator side. It does make a difference, but, you know, some of
• 21:03
  Brian Stark: the larger farmers, you could also say have scales when they bring it in too. A lot of them, if they don't have a scale where they unload into their bin, they've got a scale in their water wagon. So I think pounds is really what you're looking at, in conversion to bushels, and you're gonna have a feel for that as you go through the field if you've got a scale system. And I think that's could be important to know what you, know, absolutely have. I think the other phantom, component that we experienced here this past fall was how dry the crop was coming in.
• 21:30
  You don't understand how much you give up in yield when you're harvesting 13% corn out of the field versus the standard, number two fifteen o. So I think there were some bushels lost in. I'm not saying this year is gonna be the repeat of last '24 and dry, but I certainly, we've had a lot of heat. I think the welcome weather of cooling down certainly will help allow elongate the the cycle of the plant, and and maybe we don't dry down and lose so much yield, from shatter loss and things in the field as we get out there this fall.
• 22:01
  Todd Gleason: So we've talked about a lot of things, but really we haven't come to the crux of the matter, which are prices are low, based on what the PharmDoc team put out this week with updated numbers. And they used a fairly large corn price still, and a decent soybean price. They're still looking at losses, in Central Illinois on a cash rented farm of 70 or $80 an acre for corn. Farmers have to figure out how to manage that kind of loss, and it's not easy. What kind of strategies do each of you think they might try to deploy?
• 22:41
  Curt Kimmel: Well, that's a tough one. It varies from individual to individual, but we've been in the advice part as we can find some decent basis, which there is none now to move it and replace a little bit of it. But we're kind of looking at storing this crop into year end. I don't know if guys really want to sell a whole lot here because they're pretty well where they want to be this year. It's in the next year where they want the income, that's where the uncertainty is on it.
• 23:11
  So, you know, with this bump up in through here, I think you can put some hedges on and at least, protect your downside that way at these levels a little higher.
• 23:20
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah. Todd, to your point, you're really tough from a per acre p and l on the farm just looking at commodity prices. So I think you have to do a couple of things. One, as as we've talked about cash carry in the market and being able you know, just because there's carry there, don't fall asleep. Make sure you're looking.
• 23:35
  You have offers in to sell that that crop and capture that carry. But ARC and PLC are other things that you need to look at. There's a cash flow issue there, but because of the changes that have made been made, two important things. One, this year, you're gonna get the better of ARC or PLC regardless of what you chose at the FSA office because of the changes made inside the big better the BBB. Additionally to that, we have raised the reference prices on on PLC, and we've increased the coverage from 86 to sick 86% to 90% on ARC.
• 24:04
  Those add about call it Central Illinois, rough math, $20.22, $25 an acre to that protective, deal. And when we're calculating those values today at some of these prices, we're we're getting close to $800 an acre at some points. So every county is different. We'll have to wait and see. Keep in mind, those payments do not come out until October next June.
• 24:25
  Beneath that, you've got crop insurance. If you're in an SEO or an ECO environment where you took 95% coverage, you're certainly in a position where your yield trigger is very, very high. If you're at a typical 80 or 85% crop insurance level, you're probably not in a position where we're gonna harvest a lot of income from that. But picking up these little pieces of income along the way, there's rumors today that the USDA and several folks from congress are talking to the Trump administration about a an aid package for beans because of the situation with China and not buying any any beans from The US, at least at this point. We'll have to wait and see where that goes.
• 25:01
  But you're gonna have to combine what you can do on the commodity, you know, revenue side with what you can get through these government programs and these ag hoc disaster programs and pick up every rock along the way.
• 25:12
  Todd Gleason: An MFP payment Yeah. Seems like it would be a hard sell in Washington DC given tariffs across the board with everybody to pay out farmers, but it's been done in the past. We'll see whether that happens. What's your advice to producers? I I think
• 25:28
  Brian Stark: right now is simple and maybe as non risk management as it will sound. To Dave's point, I think if you have a sound crop insurance policy with ECO or SCO on top, I think the worst thing that could happen right now is for the market to start rallying in the month of October. I think you have to understand what your actual yield is compared to your APH. And I've even thought for guys, the few handful of people that might be, you know, further sold than than most, maybe looking at cheap out of the money calls, as some upside protection against potentially losing that insurance indemnity. Because I think there's a very good chance for those that have a county based write on product to their, individual underlier, could lose their payment if we steadily climb, during the month of October.
• 26:15
  We've seen that happen before. Outside of that, I think Dave also mentioned, I agree with him a 100%. You have to look to sell the cash carry. Obviously, that's dictated how far out you go based on when you need cash flow. But I think when you have large carries, when you have big crops, what ends up tends to end up happening is the lead futures month, wherever it goes off the board, the next one gravitates lower towards it.
• 26:38
  So you lose that carry if you
• 26:40
  Todd Gleason: don't lock that in and sell it ahead of time. Let's get a final word now from each of you. Kurt Kimmel of agmarket.net. I'll start with you for the day.
• 26:50
  Curt Kimmel: As a livestock feeder, think you gotta be on your toes here and take advantage of some wide basis and some cheaper feed needs here this fall, early winter. Conspiracy theory is they came in at the high yield this year because they underestimated last year's crop, they're trying to balance it out. Whether or not, who knows? But lastly, too, is the yield does maybe come down and through here they got demand so high that one might offset the other here for a little while. But the bottom line is with lower test waste and a huge corn demand, I don't think so.
• 27:25
  Todd Gleason: I'm pretty sure we don't deal with conspiracy theories most of the time, but some of the time, probably. Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing. Your final word for the day.
• 27:37
  Dave Chatterton: I wanna ask Kurt to check on the moon cycle here. We'll talk to him. Beyond that, look, I mean, we've talked about a lot of stuff, commodity prices. I'm gonna mention kinda one good thing that did happen today. We got kinda some news from the the RMA and through the the reconciliation bill that crop insurance is actually going to improve for next year.
• 27:54
  We're gonna get higher subsidies on your traditional RP products. We're gonna see the subsidized rate for SEO and ECO both go to 80%. So you're talking about a product that can take you up to 90 or 95% coverage subsidized by the government at 80% makes it very affordable for next year. With the PLC reference prices coming up, we've got a better safety net going into next year. So starting to think ahead, stay in touch with your con with your with your crop insurance agent and how some of these changes may affect you.
• 28:20
  And keep in mind next year here I mean, one thing we didn't talk about, Todd, I mean, pretty big acreage swing being penciled in next year and a lot of soybean acres coming in. If we don't have that China program, be sure you're staying ahead of yourself. We made we talked about the old crop soybean market and up 75¢ off those lows. But using some premium products, you can see $11 floors on that new crop 26 here. A one by two contract, any kind of a a structured or, you know, accumulating type of a structure that you wanna talk about.
• 28:48
  Those have their ups and downs, but be sure you're looking out and making ahead and looking ahead to next year, particularly in the soybean market with what looks like a trade war, you know, definitely in place here.
• 28:58
  Todd Gleason: Gary Shnicki, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, has already looked at these numbers as it relates to SCO and the higher subsidies and simply says every farmer should probably not only consider it for next year, but should probably take it. Your final word as well, Brian Stark from the Andersons.
• 29:16
  Brian Stark: Well, Dave stole my thunder a little bit because I think the best sale to to you what he said is to look out to '26. I I think right now, there's not a lot of good options. I think the first thing would be if you can cash flow, I think there's certainly some opportunities, some real good interior basis and beans, locking in cash carry, utilizing storage versus the conventional selling them across the scale to generate cash. But obviously, each individual farm is gonna be different, but that would be my recommendation to move a little more corn during fall, just to avoid some of the wide bean basis we'll see. And then, to Dave's point, I think you need to look out towards '26.
• 29:52
  That tends to be the best, protective or at least opportunity, environment for the farmer right now. Take advantage of maybe some carry and some good values that might be closer to the cost of production, maybe even a little profitable compared to what we're seeing here in the '25 values. Commodity week is
• 30:11
  Todd Gleason: a production of Illinois public media. You may hear the whole of the program online at willag.0rg. Our thanks go to our panelists today. They include Brian Stark of The Andersons, Dave Chatterton from Strategic Farm Marketing, and Kurt Kimmel of agmarket.net. Don't forget that you can drop by the University of Illinois tent on the Farm Progress Show site next week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
• 30:38
  Our commodity week panels are at 10:00 in the morning the first two days and at nine a. M. And we'll also be joined by Arlen Suderman. You want to drop in for that one. Matt Bennett will be along as will Colin Waters of the Illinois Corn Growers Association.
• 30:53
  That's at 9AM on Thursday morning. Check out our website at willag.org and the calendar of events. You can see all the things that are happening in the University of Illinois tent throughout the day. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.