Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Conference Championships Betting Preview

Transcript

The Favorites - Conference Championships Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,
0:04
Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
0:05
Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandul because they're
0:08
Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and because
0:10
Speaker 1: they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long.
0:15
Speaker 1: And when I win with FanDuel, I get paid fast. Plus.
0:18
Speaker 1: FanDuel is now live in Ohio, so use promo code
0:22
Speaker 1: favorites and download the FanDuel app today to start making
0:25
Speaker 1: every moment more. Must be twenty one or older and
0:28
Speaker 1: in select states gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler
0:32
Speaker 1: or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
0:35
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio one eight
0:39
Speaker 1: hundred next step or text next step to five two
0:42
Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven
0:45
Speaker 1: seven or visit c CpG dot org slash chat in
0:49
Speaker 1: Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it. In Indiana, visit
0:53
Speaker 1: KS gambling help dot com. In Kansas one eight seven
0:56
Speaker 1: seven seven seven zero stop. In Louisiana, visit m D
0:59
Speaker 1: Gambling Help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven
1:03
Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four
1:06
Speaker 1: six seven three in New York, one five to two
1:09
Speaker 1: four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight
1:12
Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,
1:23
Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman,
1:27
Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are heading
1:30
Speaker 1: into conference championship weekend. The Bengals are visiting the Chiefs,
1:35
Speaker 1: the Niners are visiting the Eagles. Lines have been moving.
1:39
Speaker 1: There was crazy injury analysis to do and to consider.
1:44
Speaker 1: We're gonna do it all. Me and my co host,
1:48
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional Better, Simon Hunter,
1:55
Speaker 1: hellos sim In, Hello Chad. Are we doing brother, dude?
2:02
Speaker 1: I mean we fucking crushed last week? Yeah? Good, good
2:07
Speaker 1: week to be an under better. We really did amazingly well.
2:11
Speaker 1: I'm super proud of us, um and this week is
2:15
Speaker 1: shaping up to be super super interesting. Of course. Um
2:20
Speaker 1: last week now, I can't find anything that I think
2:26
Speaker 1: I think I can do it. I think um the
2:30
Speaker 1: Foxhole bet I believe was the Bills minus four and
2:32
Speaker 1: a half. That's only loss. That was our only loss. Um,
2:36
Speaker 1: you were all over the Eagles, Simon says, was all
2:39
Speaker 1: over the Eagles. That was smart moved by them never
2:43
Speaker 1: touching the seven because I would have unloaded on that number.
2:45
Speaker 1: So but that ended up being our big balls, not
2:48
Speaker 1: our Simon says. Simon says, I told everyone take the
2:51
Speaker 1: under early on the Cowboys, and the actually didn't work out.
2:56
Speaker 1: They went to forty seven and then and then dropped
2:58
Speaker 1: back down. So it's all right. I wanted anyways. And
3:03
Speaker 1: the exact decision was the under. I had given it
3:08
Speaker 1: out at fifty one and a half and then it
3:09
Speaker 1: bumped up to fifty three. Also worked against us, didn't matter,
3:14
Speaker 1: didn't matter. That was the line, and that achieves Jags.
3:17
Speaker 1: I mean, look that game. Let's just talk about that
3:20
Speaker 1: for a second. Um, Like we gotta unpack some of this.
3:25
Speaker 1: We also we also were pretty heavy on the Jacks
3:28
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. Jack's plus nine and a half.
3:32
Speaker 1: We bet at at fifty one and a half under.
3:34
Speaker 1: We bettered at fifty three under, and like we threaded
3:40
Speaker 1: that fucking needle. And I gotta tell you, I knew
3:43
Speaker 1: they were going to kick a field goal. Like that's
3:45
Speaker 1: the right move. I felt so confident they were going
3:47
Speaker 1: to cover that, and I wasn't even that nervous about it.
3:51
Speaker 1: I mean, like a lile was pretty nervous. Doug Dougs
3:55
Speaker 1: are good man. Doug Peterson is that good man. But
3:57
Speaker 1: it honestly played out perfectly in the sense of they
4:01
Speaker 1: got the third down completion that put him into field
4:03
Speaker 1: goal range, and it was fourth down, in like fourth
4:05
Speaker 1: and eight whatever it was. It was like, Okay, the
4:08
Speaker 1: math literally says you're to kick a field goal even
4:09
Speaker 1: if you've got even if you're piste off like Doug
4:12
Speaker 1: clearly was, it's still clear enough. And it said, we're, okay,
4:15
Speaker 1: this is the right move. You can you kick the three,
4:16
Speaker 1: then you go for the onsider um. A simple fact
4:20
Speaker 1: of Again, we we try to make it not as complicated.
4:23
Speaker 1: We'll talk about these other games obviously, but just this
4:25
Speaker 1: game was the classic. Don't ever think it. Keep it simple, stupid.
4:30
Speaker 1: What do we talk all year? Anytime the homes was
4:33
Speaker 1: catching a large amount of points over at a field goal,
4:36
Speaker 1: we talked, his numbers are bad. He does not cover
4:38
Speaker 1: these big spreads. So we took the big number. Andy
4:42
Speaker 1: Reid at home in the playoffs. We gave out the
4:44
Speaker 1: stat in his career and the spread was seven or larger.
4:47
Speaker 1: It's to the under, Like, we're not rewriting the wheel here,
4:51
Speaker 1: We're simply betting where the value was and where the
4:53
Speaker 1: trends actually backed it. So um. We talked about the time.
4:56
Speaker 1: We don't always just blindly bet trends, but it's nice
4:59
Speaker 1: when they line up with your idea of the perfect situation.
5:02
Speaker 1: So that game, I know people are like, well, you
5:05
Speaker 1: got lucky. All these things plat out. It literally played
5:07
Speaker 1: out the exact way we envisioned it. It just all
5:10
Speaker 1: the little bounces, even with my homes going out, It
5:13
Speaker 1: didn't matter their backup TV came and drive yards to
5:15
Speaker 1: score a touchdown. It was just it's just a classic
5:18
Speaker 1: Vegas number. They just knew they had to move the
5:20
Speaker 1: number up because the teasers we talked all the time,
5:22
Speaker 1: we were getting two three points. Number should probably been seven,
5:25
Speaker 1: seven and a half. They closed almost had ten, had
5:28
Speaker 1: a lot of books, like a lot of books. Was
5:30
Speaker 1: literally letting you buy the point to ten for no
5:32
Speaker 1: real juice. So um. Yeah, great great read by us
5:36
Speaker 1: um that that Saturday. Just in general. Yeah, we're about
5:39
Speaker 1: to talk about the Eagles. Yeah, we'll get to the
5:41
Speaker 1: Eagles those by the way, hold on, we're not talking
5:43
Speaker 1: about the Eagles yet. Okay, do you have more you
5:46
Speaker 1: want to say on the Jacks Chiefs because we got
5:47
Speaker 1: unpacked this a little bit more. Um, yeah, jack. What
5:50
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say was, it's the perfect scenario
5:52
Speaker 1: if you're a fan of the show. Where we gave
5:54
Speaker 1: out the Jaguars at a hundred fifty two hundred one
5:57
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. We gave out the Chiefs
5:59
Speaker 1: at all having a one tender one. That's the dream scenario.
6:02
Speaker 1: Like people are asking me what I was doing with
6:03
Speaker 1: the moneyline, It's like nothing, I'm literally sitting on two
6:06
Speaker 1: huge futures, um, just playing the Jackson spread. So that's
6:10
Speaker 1: why I treated out the bit like say no and
6:12
Speaker 1: then saying funk on Twitter because it's like, well, there
6:14
Speaker 1: goes my Chiefs futures. As soon as Mahomes got rolled
6:17
Speaker 1: up on where we talked at the time. It's the
6:20
Speaker 1: worst part of football. This is why I'm all for
6:22
Speaker 1: protecting these qbs in every every way, um, because you
6:26
Speaker 1: just want to see the best football in the best competition.
6:28
Speaker 1: That's what Mahomes is he's the best competition. H it's
6:34
Speaker 1: rewriting the rule book, reinventing the wheel. That's that's what
6:39
Speaker 1: we don't want to do. We don't need to know
6:41
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. I blacked out. I know you're listen. Listen.
6:45
Speaker 1: I'm here to help. Okay, now you guys Texas, that
6:49
Speaker 1: where my phone's blowing up there. Yes, can't get you
6:56
Speaker 1: can't you can't get cliches. I Matt Mitchell. He will
7:01
Speaker 1: be on you like a schoolmarm correcting your grammar. Okay,
7:08
Speaker 1: like you can all these chat GPTs, artificial intelligence grammarly,
7:14
Speaker 1: they're all brilliant. At the end of the day, Matt Mitchell,
7:19
Speaker 1: he could do it all just for the entire world.
7:22
Speaker 1: I've never never proclaimed on the sharpest knife in the drawer.
7:25
Speaker 1: There you go, There you go, buddy. Um that Jack's game,
7:30
Speaker 1: that that drive was so frustrating. It was playing out
7:37
Speaker 1: perfectly for us. Like as a Jags team, that's your
7:41
Speaker 1: moment to see you the deal. That is your moment
7:44
Speaker 1: to define yourself as the dominant team. In that game.
7:48
Speaker 1: You had a guy who's played eighteen snaps none meaningful
7:51
Speaker 1: come off the bench from yards like longness drive in
7:55
Speaker 1: Chiefs postseason history at ten point lead. Come on, man,
7:59
Speaker 1: you don't deserved to win that game after that? And Uh, Jags,
8:03
Speaker 1: it's so simple. They already know what they gotta do.
8:07
Speaker 1: Just draft defense. That's all you gotta do. Now. You
8:09
Speaker 1: got the offense, you got the weapons. Maybe you throw
8:13
Speaker 1: an old alignment in there right now and then, But
8:15
Speaker 1: to me, it's Doug Peterson had to be go to
8:18
Speaker 1: sleep with a smile on his face. I mean, this
8:20
Speaker 1: is the dream right now. They got they got the offense,
8:22
Speaker 1: they just need the defense. Yeah, No, it was great.
8:25
Speaker 1: It was great. Uh that Eagles game. Shout out to
8:29
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who UH had commented in analysis during the
8:36
Speaker 1: week on Action Network take the Eagles online minus twenty
8:41
Speaker 1: and a half at plus three fifty and it became
8:44
Speaker 1: something that a lot of people at Action ended up playing.
8:48
Speaker 1: Um and that was super fun too, because Simon, kudos
8:53
Speaker 1: to you, Ku does to you, and kudos to me,
8:58
Speaker 1: but mostly kudos to you because we recorded the pod
9:01
Speaker 1: last week Tuesday in our new studio in the office. Yeah,
9:05
Speaker 1: you kept leaning on the Eagles and you're you're sneaky
9:09
Speaker 1: because you know a lot of ship and you kept
9:14
Speaker 1: leaning on the Eagles, and you kept talking about Jalen Hurts.
9:19
Speaker 1: And I've listened to you often enough to know there
9:22
Speaker 1: are certain things when you're saying them, you can't say
9:25
Speaker 1: them out loud, but you're saying enough to let people know,
9:29
Speaker 1: don't be an idiot. Do what I'm saying. And I
9:32
Speaker 1: mentioned on the podcast like, oh, I hear it, I'm
9:37
Speaker 1: reading between the lines. You fucking nail that game. Yeah.
9:41
Speaker 1: I think that's the tough part of the Tuesday's show
9:44
Speaker 1: where it's like I want to come in really hard,
9:47
Speaker 1: but I also know how big our show is, and
9:51
Speaker 1: if I tell everyone the Eagles gonna be my biggest
9:53
Speaker 1: bet of the week, I'm never gonna see that seven.
9:55
Speaker 1: It didn't matter. We never saw the seven anyway. So
9:58
Speaker 1: that was one of those my time. Thursday came right now,
10:00
Speaker 1: just like we gotta we just gotta bite the bullet.
10:02
Speaker 1: You just gotta take the seven and a half, because
10:04
Speaker 1: that was not your classic overreaction game, but it really
10:09
Speaker 1: was of like the Eagles hadn't played well in a month,
10:12
Speaker 1: and you know, the Giants, you can't get any more
10:14
Speaker 1: smoked up their ass. I mean, people are literally talking
10:16
Speaker 1: about Brian Dable as the coach of the year, a
10:18
Speaker 1: man that came third in his division. It was a
10:21
Speaker 1: weird time we were living and it was like, I
10:23
Speaker 1: can't be the assholete being like you want the guy
10:25
Speaker 1: who won third in his division to be coach of
10:27
Speaker 1: the year. It's like, I completely understand he turned around
10:30
Speaker 1: the Giants franchise, but turn around to what get blowing
10:34
Speaker 1: the hell out in the divisional around? It was just
10:37
Speaker 1: your classic during the season overreaction. I mean, even if
10:40
Speaker 1: you look at his last ten games, ship, he's got
10:43
Speaker 1: a tie in there, so I think he was three
10:46
Speaker 1: six and one in his last ten so crazy season.
10:50
Speaker 1: I mean, he literally got every ounce he could out
10:54
Speaker 1: of Daniel Jones. Like, that's why we're gonna talk about
10:56
Speaker 1: the Bills coming up. This is a simple reason why
10:59
Speaker 1: I thought last year was best Bills team. We're gonna
11:01
Speaker 1: get like his coaching. You see how incredible. It's like
11:04
Speaker 1: that what he got at that Giant's team was incredible
11:07
Speaker 1: and you saw come crashing down in that Eagles game
11:10
Speaker 1: where we talked all the time, I got that Bills
11:13
Speaker 1: one dead wrong because I was overvaluing the defensive and
11:15
Speaker 1: offensive line too much. This Eagles one is what I
11:18
Speaker 1: dream of. It's like you're getting the best OH line
11:20
Speaker 1: and the best D line and a huge mismatch. And
11:22
Speaker 1: we talk all the time, like I give people in
11:24
Speaker 1: my secrets all the time. That's stuff I look for.
11:26
Speaker 1: If there's a huge mitch match on both the defensive
11:29
Speaker 1: an offensive line, you slam those numbers. You just throughout
11:33
Speaker 1: the rest of it. The rest is just noisome bullshit.
11:35
Speaker 1: You slam that stuff when there's a big mismatch. What
11:38
Speaker 1: do you see in the Eagles that Eagles game? A
11:39
Speaker 1: hundred fifty yards before contact to the running backs, huge deal.
11:43
Speaker 1: What do you see on the defensive line? They were
11:45
Speaker 1: all over Daniel Jones But end of the first quarter,
11:47
Speaker 1: the kid was shook because he was just getting laid
11:49
Speaker 1: out every time he dropped back. So um pissed. I
11:52
Speaker 1: didn't bet more. Piston never got to the seven. But yeah,
11:55
Speaker 1: I loved, loved that sign. It felt good. Where you know,
11:59
Speaker 1: a lot noise from the fans just about me being
12:02
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan. I tell the people of the time,
12:04
Speaker 1: I literally don't care like I bet a number. It's
12:06
Speaker 1: irrelevant that I'm a fan. Um one of those where
12:09
Speaker 1: as a fan It made me more timid because I
12:12
Speaker 1: was like with them in the sense of maybe I
12:14
Speaker 1: am undervelling this Giants team, and I think everyone can agree,
12:17
Speaker 1: just like in that Bills a game, you knew within
12:18
Speaker 1: the first quarter which side was gonna win and cover
12:20
Speaker 1: that game. So um, it felt felt good. I didn't
12:23
Speaker 1: get sucked in because a lot of pros they fucking
12:25
Speaker 1: loved the Giants, and I let them talk to me
12:28
Speaker 1: off one game last week. But luckily it wasn't the
12:29
Speaker 1: egos one because the Giants betting from the pros is
12:32
Speaker 1: real like that there was a large amount of big
12:34
Speaker 1: bets coming in the Giants, So um, big split game
12:37
Speaker 1: and once again it's it's the playoffs. Guys are just
12:40
Speaker 1: split on both sides. Yeah, they talked us off the
12:44
Speaker 1: Niners and off U. You know what. I was watching
12:48
Speaker 1: that game, and uh, I don't feel badly about the
12:53
Speaker 1: side that we played. I mean, obviously I feel badly
12:55
Speaker 1: because we didn't win, but going out, like as soon
12:58
Speaker 1: as Poler went out, we both kind of, like anyone
13:00
Speaker 1: to bet the Cowboys kind of knew your fucked. Yeah
13:01
Speaker 1: you knew you were fucked, and like I just sort
13:05
Speaker 1: of I believe that Poler stays in and the Cowboys
13:08
Speaker 1: probably gone that game or cover right, It's just a
13:13
Speaker 1: different game. So I didn't feel I didn't feel badly
13:15
Speaker 1: about that. UM. We also as you as you mentioned, uh,
13:21
Speaker 1: we loved the Cowboys under um and that was never
13:28
Speaker 1: like damn, You've taught me. You know a lot of
13:32
Speaker 1: a lot of smart things on this podcast. But one
13:35
Speaker 1: thing that I did this weekend to an extreme more
13:40
Speaker 1: than I've done in the past. When I liked the
13:43
Speaker 1: number and I wasn't getting the best of it earlier
13:45
Speaker 1: in the week and it moved against us, I just
13:47
Speaker 1: kept betting it. Jack's long term. I'll tell your time,
13:52
Speaker 1: the long term. That's how you build a nice bank
13:54
Speaker 1: roll where you just have to keep because it's not
13:55
Speaker 1: always gonna work out. We're not always gonna thread the
13:57
Speaker 1: need on that Jags game. Chat could have easily gone
14:00
Speaker 1: for four. UM. But that's why you trust the numbers.
14:03
Speaker 1: You keep back in the number when it moves against you.
14:05
Speaker 1: All right, So, UM, you know this weekend, I'll let's
14:11
Speaker 1: say we got I know you gave Matt Mitchell your
14:14
Speaker 1: word you wouldn't talk about the bills. UM. I did
14:17
Speaker 1: not give no said word I would not talk about
14:19
Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills fans gotta fucking eat it. They
14:23
Speaker 1: gotta eat it bad too. Holy sh it, did we
14:27
Speaker 1: hear so much all summer about this team being bet
14:30
Speaker 1: everyone's betting, even pros are betting them. In what fucking world?
14:34
Speaker 1: Where that should? They have been the most beat team
14:36
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl, a team that not only
14:39
Speaker 1: Josh Allen never been to a super Bowl, this franchise
14:42
Speaker 1: never won, never won one, at least in my lifetime.
14:45
Speaker 1: I don't know about Man Mitchell's lifetime's lifetime. It's a joke,
14:50
Speaker 1: but it's just it's a lesson for everyone. Listen to
14:53
Speaker 1: this show where I don't hate the Bills at all.
14:56
Speaker 1: I like the Bills. I'm a fan of the Bills.
14:58
Speaker 1: Who doesn't want a team that's never won a Super
14:59
Speaker 1: Bowl to win one. My whole argument agains some all
15:02
Speaker 1: summer was they had zero value. There literally was a
15:05
Speaker 1: public perception team of well, they were just a literally
15:08
Speaker 1: nine seconds away from being in the a f C
15:10
Speaker 1: Championship game. If that thing, they go in the homes.
15:13
Speaker 1: So that's why they're the odds on favorite to win
15:15
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. Going into last season, it was bizarre.
15:18
Speaker 1: So I talked about going to the playoffs. The only
15:20
Speaker 1: two teams that could really fuck me if they win
15:22
Speaker 1: it this year will be the Bills and the forty
15:24
Speaker 1: nine Ers. The Bills are gone, no surprise though, Like
15:28
Speaker 1: I literally backed them this week. I was gonna fade
15:30
Speaker 1: them no matter what going into Kansas City. Um, just
15:32
Speaker 1: because Josh is oh and two against my homes. So
15:36
Speaker 1: for me, if you're a Bills fan, the silver lining
15:39
Speaker 1: is that elbow issue has to be something. Like I
15:42
Speaker 1: know they played it all all season. You can just
15:44
Speaker 1: look at the numbers. Ever since he banged up that elbow,
15:47
Speaker 1: Josh just wasn't the same quarterback accuracy, everything was different. Um.
15:51
Speaker 1: The big question now if you're a Bills fan is
15:55
Speaker 1: what do you do with the head coach position? Um,
15:58
Speaker 1: we've seen the whole lead shift. So uh, I don't
16:02
Speaker 1: know what they're gonna do the Bills because they're kind
16:04
Speaker 1: of stuck now, Like they got this team that's built
16:06
Speaker 1: for indoors and they're an outdoor team. Um, it's gonna
16:09
Speaker 1: be really interesting where I I do think last year
16:11
Speaker 1: is their best best team they're gonna have so um
16:15
Speaker 1: payingful obviously for Bills fans, but you have Josh Allen,
16:18
Speaker 1: so it's like you're getting no fucking pity from me.
16:21
Speaker 1: I don't think anything, especially chat sitting here with the Bears.
16:24
Speaker 1: They haven't had a Josh Allen of his life, so um, no,
16:27
Speaker 1: no pity from any fan base. But just one of those.
16:31
Speaker 1: If they open as again the favorite to win the
16:33
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, untouchable. Now if you give me them fifteen
16:37
Speaker 1: to one, fourteen to one, me and Chad will love
16:39
Speaker 1: the Bills next year. So that's just how it is.
16:42
Speaker 1: Like that was all season. People are like, you're so
16:44
Speaker 1: down the Bills. It was never about that, simply a
16:46
Speaker 1: value beat business. Um. I just want people understand that
16:51
Speaker 1: where it's like it's literally nothing personal. I just talked
16:54
Speaker 1: all summer that the Chiefs should have been the one seed.
16:57
Speaker 1: They end up being the one seed. The Bills were
16:59
Speaker 1: a great team. I never thought they should have been
17:01
Speaker 1: the odds on Super Bowl favorite. Matt Mitchell didn't feel
17:04
Speaker 1: that way either. He slacked us. It's the last thing
17:07
Speaker 1: I want to say about looking back, because I want
17:09
Speaker 1: us to get to these two games. They're really interesting.
17:12
Speaker 1: I think that the contrast and Matt Mitchell can weigh
17:16
Speaker 1: in on this U through slack or verbally, I know
17:19
Speaker 1: what the people on IM can't hear. But at the
17:22
Speaker 1: end of the day, I think these teams are a
17:28
Speaker 1: reflection of their quarterbacks. And the Bengals are and infinitely calm,
17:39
Speaker 1: cocky without with reason to be confident team. Yeah, and
17:47
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are a bit whiny and dramatic.
17:54
Speaker 1: But I know people are giving dig ship though, but
17:56
Speaker 1: I get it as a compacive digs like, like I thought,
18:00
Speaker 1: his response is great, you want me to be happy
18:01
Speaker 1: with losing. I don't. I'm really thinking about Josh Allen,
18:05
Speaker 1: who seems to be like he plays in peaks and
18:08
Speaker 1: valleys right. When things are going great, he's great, He's unstoppable.
18:12
Speaker 1: But when things are not going well, he's very reactive.
18:15
Speaker 1: He gets whiny, he gets frustrated. He's looking at rafts
18:19
Speaker 1: like it's just you can see, and so I'm curious
18:24
Speaker 1: to see they don't seem to have a real The
18:27
Speaker 1: Bengals have developed a personality, right. They are a team
18:31
Speaker 1: that is that will whether it's Jamaar Chase, Joe Mixon,
18:36
Speaker 1: they'll punch you in the mouth, right, And I don't
18:40
Speaker 1: get that sense from the Bills. It could have been
18:43
Speaker 1: more wrong in that game when I think he started
18:45
Speaker 1: nine for nine Burrow, it was. It was terrible. It
18:47
Speaker 1: were cooked. I mean, the dude, he's a fucking killer.
18:51
Speaker 1: Like I don't want talk too much about because we're
18:52
Speaker 1: about to talk about them the next two episodes of Nausea.
18:55
Speaker 1: But yeah, Joe Burrow is a certified killer. Well let's
18:58
Speaker 1: talk about it. So the Chiefs are playing the Bengals,
19:03
Speaker 1: and you know, this is the second game on on
19:07
Speaker 1: Sunday AFC title game. The game opened it Bengals plus three,
19:12
Speaker 1: and it opened it fifty two and a half. I
19:16
Speaker 1: bet it at Bengals plus three, fifty one and a half.
19:20
Speaker 1: The fifty two and a half I think was available
19:23
Speaker 1: maybe four thirty five seconds. I don't know if you
19:27
Speaker 1: got a fifty two and a half. But this line
19:31
Speaker 1: has been just now it's two and a half of
19:34
Speaker 1: the Bengals, I think, and the line is and the
19:36
Speaker 1: totals at seven. I mean, obviously it's all around Patrick Mahomes,
19:40
Speaker 1: but funk, what an interesting match up here? Yeah, two
19:43
Speaker 1: and a half. Kansas City is now a two and
19:45
Speaker 1: a half point favorite, I mean two half point under dog.
19:48
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's we joke all the time. But those
19:50
Speaker 1: are fire able lines that they hung up there like
19:53
Speaker 1: people that hung those lines. I don't want to make
19:57
Speaker 1: like this is something we're talking the off season about
19:59
Speaker 1: where the lines come from. But this kind of shows
20:01
Speaker 1: you that all lines are critically equally a lot of
20:04
Speaker 1: these books, when they try to go off on their
20:07
Speaker 1: own and make their own lines, they get I mean destroyed.
20:10
Speaker 1: So classic couple of books opened just to get feelers.
20:13
Speaker 1: So that's why I like, I wanted to go off
20:15
Speaker 1: the early lines just because I couldn't even get that
20:17
Speaker 1: much money down. Um, we already talked about to me.
20:22
Speaker 1: The biggest thing was they hung out one and a
20:24
Speaker 1: half all of Monday on Sincy, and I tweeted out
20:27
Speaker 1: maybe it was Sunday night that a lot of the
20:30
Speaker 1: early big money was just coming in heavy on Sincy.
20:32
Speaker 1: To just let people know where I was at, in
20:34
Speaker 1: the sense of if you had a future on the Chiefs,
20:38
Speaker 1: um you got them at tender eleven one. It's an
20:42
Speaker 1: easy spot to take a position on Cincinnati. So already
20:44
Speaker 1: talked to chat about this. Say I had fifty K
20:46
Speaker 1: me and my group on the Chiefs at ten to one,
20:50
Speaker 1: that's the chance of winning five thousand dollars. Obviously being
20:53
Speaker 1: idiots not to put at least a hundred fifty k
20:56
Speaker 1: on since at a money line or plus one and
20:59
Speaker 1: a half whenever we whatever we wanted to do, just
21:01
Speaker 1: in a sense that my home's had a serious injury.
21:04
Speaker 1: Like we saw how different that game was once he
21:06
Speaker 1: had that injury. Now he just wasn't running or moving
21:08
Speaker 1: outside the pocket. Now do I think it's worth five
21:12
Speaker 1: or six points, No, but I think it's moved this much.
21:15
Speaker 1: I think Chad are alluded to a little bit of
21:17
Speaker 1: the early money has just been so heavy Bengals, and
21:21
Speaker 1: nothing's touched. Chiefs like pros like me are just gonna wait,
21:24
Speaker 1: like give give us plus three and then we'll come
21:26
Speaker 1: back on the other side. But the books put themselves
21:29
Speaker 1: in a horrible position. They opened a line that was
21:31
Speaker 1: bad that I think every Joe Schmoll in the world
21:34
Speaker 1: tease the Chiefs, I mean chiefs the Bengals up the
21:36
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Maybe they tease the four nineers
21:38
Speaker 1: with him or the Eagles with him, and now they'll
21:41
Speaker 1: do the other side with the Chiefs. They'll just tease
21:43
Speaker 1: the Chiefs up this seven and a half eight and
21:45
Speaker 1: a half now and do stuff like that. So, um,
21:49
Speaker 1: I don't know what the book was thinking. Cheat, this
21:51
Speaker 1: is an interesting line. So early bet me and Chat
21:54
Speaker 1: would have been all over since in the under, I
21:57
Speaker 1: still liked the under. UM still would take a position,
22:00
Speaker 1: but obviously we wish it was still at forty seven.
22:02
Speaker 1: That's such a key number six and a half right now.
22:04
Speaker 1: I'm not ideal, um, but this is one of those
22:07
Speaker 1: where we'll really have a pick for on Thursday. Like
22:10
Speaker 1: right now, I mean, Chat, if you want to make
22:12
Speaker 1: a bet with us, we're betting the under. Like already
22:14
Speaker 1: on the under, I would only throw a little bit though.
22:16
Speaker 1: I just hopes that maybe it does get back up
22:18
Speaker 1: to forty seven. Maybe some report come out. My homes
22:20
Speaker 1: looks unfazed in practice whatever bs they're being be thrown
22:23
Speaker 1: out there all week. Um, the chiefs, media, Whoever's gonna
22:26
Speaker 1: be doing stuff. So it's I don't want to come
22:29
Speaker 1: in here and be like, oh we'll meet Chatter, he
22:30
Speaker 1: got the best, Remember no bet this week. It's just
22:33
Speaker 1: we'll never be that show. So to me, we'll have
22:36
Speaker 1: more something official. But I think people already can tell
22:39
Speaker 1: like we we want to take the Chiefs. We want
22:41
Speaker 1: to take the Chiefs up plus three at home. We
22:44
Speaker 1: want to have the public all over this since team, Um,
22:49
Speaker 1: this is a good spot to being mahomes with no
22:52
Speaker 1: one on them. That's a nice position to be in.
22:54
Speaker 1: And if you look at the historical data, and I
22:58
Speaker 1: know it's it's it's not a big example, but it's
23:00
Speaker 1: just what the playoffs have been these last couple of years. Um,
23:04
Speaker 1: it's just not I'm not saying it's not smart to
23:07
Speaker 1: take the dog on the road in the playoffs, but
23:10
Speaker 1: we've seen in these games it's three and it's so
23:14
Speaker 1: if you're taking the favorite on the road, you're hitting
23:16
Speaker 1: out clip in these playoffs. So, UM, I don't know.
23:21
Speaker 1: It's like looking at this number now, I'm trying to
23:23
Speaker 1: find us the best number chat. It keeps some moving
23:25
Speaker 1: up and down. So that's what I'm saying. So the
23:27
Speaker 1: last ten post seasons, it's a small sample, but it's
23:31
Speaker 1: real the favorites have gone three, eight and two on
23:34
Speaker 1: the road. So we already have trends backing us to
23:38
Speaker 1: want to take my homes and we already knew we
23:40
Speaker 1: kind of wanted to do it. So, um, it's one
23:43
Speaker 1: of those if you wont since I would grab it
23:45
Speaker 1: now because I do think it will get to the three,
23:46
Speaker 1: which is a key number. But I'm having a hard
23:50
Speaker 1: time with this one this week, Chack, because we already
23:51
Speaker 1: talked about Joe. Joe is a damn killer. Like the
23:55
Speaker 1: way I feel about my homes, I feel about Burrow.
23:58
Speaker 1: It's just even if my home has the lead, I'm
24:00
Speaker 1: just never gonna feel comfortable, never gonna count out Burrow.
24:03
Speaker 1: So um, between the two matchups, obviously, this is the
24:06
Speaker 1: best quarterback matchup Mahomes and Burrow. I mean, it's hard
24:10
Speaker 1: to say Allan still number one or two when Burrow
24:13
Speaker 1: just beat him in his own home park. But um,
24:16
Speaker 1: Burrow is just he breaks sold the rules man, like
24:19
Speaker 1: he's cost me a decent penny. Like we joked about
24:21
Speaker 1: it in the action app we had bet them that
24:23
Speaker 1: was our most winning team for both of us. Um,
24:26
Speaker 1: I I'm slowly gonna start giving it back here because
24:30
Speaker 1: I hate that. I hate that. I mean Fade and Joe.
24:32
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. Like, I'll probably be on
24:34
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But if you're asking what my biggest bet
24:36
Speaker 1: in this game will most likely be, it's gonna be
24:37
Speaker 1: the under with chat. Yeah, I do want to ask
24:41
Speaker 1: you right now. The only book that's offering below two
24:47
Speaker 1: Cincinnati minus one and a half, Kansas City plus one
24:50
Speaker 1: and a half. Every other book as at two and
24:55
Speaker 1: a half, So solictener to the show should terrify you.
24:59
Speaker 1: Van Duel is the most public book. It's the biggest
25:02
Speaker 1: book in America. So there they of all the books
25:07
Speaker 1: we talked about getting slammed with Bangals money, they have
25:11
Speaker 1: the biggest percentage bar none of every sports book. So
25:15
Speaker 1: fuck man, that would actually terrify me if I was
25:17
Speaker 1: on the Bengals side. That's really interesting. They are only
25:20
Speaker 1: ones left under two, and we talk all the time
25:22
Speaker 1: that is such a key number. So ship Chaff, we
25:25
Speaker 1: we come into your Thursday and it's still at that
25:27
Speaker 1: one and a half. Everyone that's listened to the show,
25:29
Speaker 1: that should be setting off alarms in your head because
25:31
Speaker 1: that that is a funky, funky number. They're just the
25:34
Speaker 1: fact they have hit two. To me, this number should
25:36
Speaker 1: be two and every book at this point, So, um,
25:38
Speaker 1: that's interesting. Vandals still one and a half. Yep, one
25:41
Speaker 1: and a half. It's moving though. It literally the juice
25:44
Speaker 1: on it, it's just a second ago moved. It might
25:47
Speaker 1: be because people are listening to the show. Yeah, which again,
25:50
Speaker 1: if you want to grab SENSEI I mean, that's that's
25:53
Speaker 1: that's the book you want to go to right now,
25:54
Speaker 1: because that's that's why they're stolen here too. Yeah, it's
25:57
Speaker 1: fascinating to me. Also, look, we were lucky enough to
26:01
Speaker 1: bet the bang was plus three to bet the under
26:04
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. Like again, I got it
26:06
Speaker 1: for such a penny. I'm not even account like my
26:07
Speaker 1: my bigger bet what you talked about the under hit
26:10
Speaker 1: a fifty seven still taking a forty six and a half. Well,
26:15
Speaker 1: at some point, let's say I only bet it at
26:19
Speaker 1: the fifty one and a half and I didn't bet
26:21
Speaker 1: it at the like, I didn't even see it. Like
26:25
Speaker 1: to me, I'm not looking at it the way you are.
26:28
Speaker 1: I'm like everybody else. I saw it at fifty one
26:31
Speaker 1: and a half. I bet it, no joke. I think
26:34
Speaker 1: by the time I got back into the Action Network app,
26:37
Speaker 1: it was an that's what that's what happened on the
26:41
Speaker 1: Eagles line to it skipped all these other movements. So
26:45
Speaker 1: at what point do we start to think, oh, maybe
26:48
Speaker 1: we bet the over and we try to middle this thing. Um,
26:52
Speaker 1: it all depends your betting style, Like, if you want
26:54
Speaker 1: to do that, it's a really small amount. You could
26:57
Speaker 1: do it, or we could do the rebel. The rebel
26:59
Speaker 1: move is you just wait until you do it live,
27:01
Speaker 1: and you do it way too much where Darren will better, like,
27:04
Speaker 1: cannot we cannot give credible betting advice on this show
27:08
Speaker 1: by naming something after Dann Revel Christ. Oh my god,
27:14
Speaker 1: it's just very Dann revel He like, well, will bet
27:16
Speaker 1: a good number and then I'll see him ago live
27:18
Speaker 1: and bet like ten ten overs live where it's like,
27:22
Speaker 1: why don't you just keep your under you already one?
27:24
Speaker 1: Now you're chasing these over so, I don't know, it's
27:27
Speaker 1: it's tough to make a choice on those. You're trying
27:29
Speaker 1: to hit these medals where the true middle play, I
27:32
Speaker 1: mean obviously it's the easiest bet ever is if you're
27:35
Speaker 1: like chatting and you've got since he plus three for
27:38
Speaker 1: one unit, you throw a point to point two point
27:41
Speaker 1: three units on uh the Chiefs once I get the
27:44
Speaker 1: plus three I mean six middle. Yeah, that's insane. Now
27:49
Speaker 1: when you're talking about totals, I don't want people to
27:52
Speaker 1: do it because I had people ask me about that
27:54
Speaker 1: with that Chiefs and Jaguars game. They're like, well, already
27:58
Speaker 1: got the under or so um the uh, what the
28:04
Speaker 1: hell was it? Not? It might have been that Bucks game.
28:07
Speaker 1: It was Bucks Cowboys, so I think the Bucks Cowboys opened,
28:10
Speaker 1: it might have been forty seven. It went all the
28:12
Speaker 1: way down to forty four and a half. Um. People
28:15
Speaker 1: are asking if they should play that in middle line said,
28:16
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't do it because the books are so
28:18
Speaker 1: sharp at this time of the year. They know exactly
28:20
Speaker 1: what they're doing. When they hold a position on the
28:21
Speaker 1: line usually means it's sharp money coming on the other side.
28:25
Speaker 1: I'm almost positive that Bucks Cowboys game landed on that number,
28:28
Speaker 1: like landed. Well, we know it landed at with Matt
28:33
Speaker 1: Mitchell who had the under forty five and a half
28:36
Speaker 1: and nearly lost his mind. So that's why I don't
28:42
Speaker 1: want to be telling people to screw around with those
28:44
Speaker 1: because the books are so smart. But they've clearly made
28:47
Speaker 1: a mistake here with this since the number. So yes,
28:50
Speaker 1: if you've got the plus three, you almost have to
28:53
Speaker 1: play a little small amountain the Chief side once it
28:55
Speaker 1: comes back to their way. It's just too much value
28:57
Speaker 1: not to in a game that e's a have a blowout.
29:00
Speaker 1: And we've seen these playoffs compared to last year, we've
29:02
Speaker 1: had a bunch of blowouts this year. We didn't really
29:04
Speaker 1: have that last year. That's kind of the way it
29:06
Speaker 1: is in the playoffs. Like these teams are so good,
29:09
Speaker 1: like we saw since once they get wrong or like
29:11
Speaker 1: the Eagles last week, you can't really stop it. It's
29:14
Speaker 1: just they're these teams are too good to let these
29:15
Speaker 1: teams back in. So um, to me, I'd go very small.
29:19
Speaker 1: I'm playing to play in the middle here. If you've
29:20
Speaker 1: got the best of a number, I would just enjoy it.
29:23
Speaker 1: Like unless you're a big, big, better, what are you chasing,
29:26
Speaker 1: Like you already got a great number. Just sit back
29:28
Speaker 1: and enjoy the game, especially if you have futures. Um,
29:33
Speaker 1: I do wonder. So we're talking about this game to
29:37
Speaker 1: two and a half in a lot of places, hoping it.
29:40
Speaker 1: Guess the three if we do want to play the middle,
29:42
Speaker 1: be a six point you know, difference there. Tomorrow is
29:47
Speaker 1: such a key day. It's Tuesday. And by the way, reminder,
29:51
Speaker 1: you want to get this podcast at five thirty in
29:54
Speaker 1: the afternoon instead of eleven thirty it comes out in
29:57
Speaker 1: the vault in the volume feed. The herd fee comes
30:01
Speaker 1: out on the Favorite feed if you subscribe to the
30:03
Speaker 1: Favorites five thirty in the afternoon. Subscribe directly to the Favorites.
30:08
Speaker 1: Um is Mahomes will practice tomorrow or he won't. That
30:15
Speaker 1: will have a massive impact. I think on the line.
30:19
Speaker 1: Give you my Simon guarantee Mahomes doesn't play this week,
30:23
Speaker 1: I will retire. I will have a new host for
30:26
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Uh, that's my guarantee. I don't know.
30:29
Speaker 1: I just can't see it happening. I mean, people are
30:31
Speaker 1: asking about Henny what I would make this number so
30:34
Speaker 1: fucking hard because I know the public is gonna drive
30:36
Speaker 1: it up. So it's like, all right, say I do
30:38
Speaker 1: make a four and a half five, it's gonna be
30:40
Speaker 1: seven just because the public's gonna bed it up to
30:42
Speaker 1: that number. I mean, they're gonna over react so hard
30:45
Speaker 1: if it is Henny, especially the way the way the
30:48
Speaker 1: numbers moved now, I cannot see it another I can't
30:51
Speaker 1: see it not moving another four points at this point
30:53
Speaker 1: if it is Henny. So um, I'll never understand the
30:58
Speaker 1: movement of this line. But it makes more sense in
31:00
Speaker 1: the sense of the pros are aligned with the public,
31:02
Speaker 1: and they like the Bengals. They like them in this spot.
31:05
Speaker 1: They think this is a good matchup for them, especially
31:07
Speaker 1: when you have a hobbled my home. So, dude, I agree,
31:10
Speaker 1: I think mahomes play. I'm just saying tomorrow, if he practices,
31:16
Speaker 1: doesn't practice, how he looks is going to have an
31:18
Speaker 1: impact on the line. If you're looking to play the middle,
31:22
Speaker 1: if you're looking to get the best of the number,
31:25
Speaker 1: if you worry that it's going to get to three
31:26
Speaker 1: or not get to three tomorrow, if you practice it,
31:29
Speaker 1: mic go back down to two, right If he doesn't practice,
31:32
Speaker 1: it could go up to three. So that's all I'm saying.
31:34
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna wait. I'm gonna be patient. I'm gonna wait,
31:38
Speaker 1: and like, either I'm going to get it at three
31:40
Speaker 1: and play the full middle, or I'm not gonna do
31:42
Speaker 1: it at all. I'm not gonna feel aunty about playing
31:44
Speaker 1: two and a half to get a middle. Yeah, and again,
31:48
Speaker 1: that's that's probably right. Like we probably will see movement
31:50
Speaker 1: just because of the public's view of my homes right now,
31:53
Speaker 1: But I don't know. Chad just feels like it's only
31:56
Speaker 1: going to be pros on the Chiefs. I mean, the
31:59
Speaker 1: Bengals were so dominant against that Bill's team and the
32:02
Speaker 1: Bills were the darling. I mean we saw, yeah, we
32:05
Speaker 1: we like the Bills, but you saw some people loved
32:08
Speaker 1: the Bills. That line steamed up last week. So those
32:12
Speaker 1: people are guaranteed to be being on the Bengals. And
32:15
Speaker 1: now you're taking in all the unknown. People do not
32:18
Speaker 1: like betting the unknown, and that's what the Chiefs really
32:20
Speaker 1: are right now. So, um, the scary part to me
32:23
Speaker 1: is someone that wants to back the Chiefs is there's
32:25
Speaker 1: zero resistance, like no pro money has come in there.
32:28
Speaker 1: They've really let this number cross a bunch of key numbers.
32:31
Speaker 1: Two and a half is a key number. So, um,
32:33
Speaker 1: Chad could be right, could see this number drop if
32:35
Speaker 1: my homes does show up and he's running and looking
32:38
Speaker 1: good in practice. But it's also one of those where
32:40
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't think me, You're gonna be shocked
32:42
Speaker 1: it off becoming your Thursday this number three, It just
32:44
Speaker 1: it just feels like that's where it's said at this point. Um, alright,
32:49
Speaker 1: so if you can get the one and a half
32:53
Speaker 1: on the Bengals right now, you take it if you're
32:56
Speaker 1: feeling antsy. Wait see if you can get the Chiefs
32:59
Speaker 1: that plus three later in the week. Uh, still take
33:02
Speaker 1: the under at forty six and a half. I'm feeling
33:05
Speaker 1: less convinced about that, I think than you are. Um, well,
33:09
Speaker 1: does it make you feel better? Knowing and Joe Brow's
33:12
Speaker 1: entire career and the playoffs, she's never scored more than
33:14
Speaker 1: twenty eight points. The defense that's really been this this
33:19
Speaker 1: unit that's really shown them these last two years. And
33:22
Speaker 1: by the way, the Bengals defense gave up the sixth
33:27
Speaker 1: fewest points per play in the NFL this year. The
33:31
Speaker 1: Bengals defense was top five in red zone touchdown percentage
33:35
Speaker 1: this year. We've said it many times in this podcast.
33:39
Speaker 1: When we started riding the Bengals, it wasn't because of
33:42
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. It's because DJ Reader came back and he
33:45
Speaker 1: has been dominant in every game that he's played. So
33:48
Speaker 1: did particularly Belly there a little bit makes you feel
33:50
Speaker 1: a little better. Yeah, that's true, that's true. That's true.
33:55
Speaker 1: If you've been watching the NFL playoff from the sidelines,
33:58
Speaker 1: there's still time to get in the game. With and
34:00
Speaker 1: Dual America's number one sports book New customers bet this
34:04
Speaker 1: Sunday's conference championship games with one hundred and fifty dollars
34:08
Speaker 1: in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first five
34:12
Speaker 1: dollar bet. Just sign up with Promo Code Favorites. Fan
34:15
Speaker 1: Duel has all your favorite bets from money line to
34:18
Speaker 1: point spreads, two player props, plus you can even combine
34:23
Speaker 1: your bets for a chance at a bigger pat with
34:25
Speaker 1: the same game parlay this weekend. I like the Eagles
34:31
Speaker 1: Niners over so football fans don't miss out. Place your
34:35
Speaker 1: first five dollar bet to get one hundred and fifty
34:38
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets, win or lose with Promo Code Favorites,
34:42
Speaker 1: make every moment more with FanDuel Official Sports Book. Partner
34:46
Speaker 1: of the NFL must be twenty one or older and
34:49
Speaker 1: in select states. First online real money wager only ten
34:52
Speaker 1: dollar first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwthrow bal bonus
34:55
Speaker 1: bets that expire fourteen days after receipt restriction supply. See
34:58
Speaker 1: terms of sports poot dot fan dot com gambling problem
35:01
Speaker 1: call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com
35:05
Speaker 1: slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois,
35:10
Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred next step or text next step
35:13
Speaker 1: to five three three four two in Arizona one eight
35:16
Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
35:19
Speaker 1: visit c CpG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one
35:24
Speaker 1: eight hundred nine with it in Indiana, k S Gambling
35:27
Speaker 1: help dot com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven
35:31
Speaker 1: seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight
35:34
Speaker 1: Hope NY or text hope n Y. In New York, Tennessee.
35:38
Speaker 1: Redline is one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven
35:41
Speaker 1: eight nine one eight hundred five to two forty seven
35:43
Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler
35:48
Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, onto the Eagles
35:52
Speaker 1: in the forty niners, um game opened about pick, but
35:57
Speaker 1: that was available for maybe less than ten seconds. We
36:00
Speaker 1: settled to two. Now it's a two and a half
36:02
Speaker 1: totals at forty five and a half. Although started taking
36:06
Speaker 1: up today. I bet Eagles minus two. I bet over
36:11
Speaker 1: forty five and a half. Give me your take, I
36:15
Speaker 1: will respond, Oh, Chad, what do I do here? It's
36:20
Speaker 1: just so many ways to go? Um do I want
36:24
Speaker 1: to be the obnoxious asshole Eagles fans. I've been treating
36:28
Speaker 1: who you are who you are. I've been trying so
36:30
Speaker 1: hard not to be though all season because I know
36:32
Speaker 1: people already hate us as a fan base. We're the
36:35
Speaker 1: worst I know we are. Um, Yeah, did it feel
36:39
Speaker 1: good beating this ship out of a divisional opponent? Yeah, Chad.
36:42
Speaker 1: Don't get much better than beating the ship out of
36:44
Speaker 1: the Giants at home, especially where I live in the
36:47
Speaker 1: Tri State area. Family members, good friends, they're all Giants fans.
36:52
Speaker 1: And I heard all week that Daniel Jones had more
36:55
Speaker 1: playoff wins than Jalen Hurts. So thank god they're tied
36:59
Speaker 1: now for play off winds because I don't know if
37:02
Speaker 1: I would have made at this off season chats and
37:03
Speaker 1: Eagles fan have been a long off stas Eagles lost
37:05
Speaker 1: at home to the Giants. So um, looking at this matchup.
37:11
Speaker 1: It's not that it's bizarre that pros are coming in
37:16
Speaker 1: on the fourty nine Ears, but I felt like they
37:18
Speaker 1: could have just waited, Like if they just would have
37:20
Speaker 1: just waited a little longer, we saw a couple of
37:22
Speaker 1: books touched the three we would have got three and
37:25
Speaker 1: three and a halfs in the fourty nine and mean
37:26
Speaker 1: you would be living in heaven because most people, like
37:28
Speaker 1: you just said, most people got the egos and either
37:30
Speaker 1: a pick or their money online really early and then
37:33
Speaker 1: get into a three and this matchup would have been epic,
37:36
Speaker 1: Like this number should be three. I make it three,
37:39
Speaker 1: and I might be overrating party now at this point,
37:43
Speaker 1: like I might have over adjusted, um where I might
37:48
Speaker 1: be biting looking like an idiot come next week, where
37:50
Speaker 1: I should have just went all in on the Eagles. H.
37:53
Speaker 1: I don't know. There's something about this kid man, Like
37:55
Speaker 1: I always talk all the time, not that humans have superpowers.
37:58
Speaker 1: We do have on its playnable things. And there's some
38:01
Speaker 1: people that are just lucky and fucking Brock pretty is lucky, dude.
38:05
Speaker 1: Like watching that game as a Cowboys backer, how many
38:08
Speaker 1: times are Cowboys guys gonna hitting the chest or have
38:10
Speaker 1: a ball fall on their lap and they don't catch it?
38:12
Speaker 1: So um, this kid has been extremely lucky. But the
38:16
Speaker 1: biggest the biggest thing to me in this matchup is
38:20
Speaker 1: this this rookie is now going on the road. I've
38:22
Speaker 1: seen him only play two road games. One was against
38:26
Speaker 1: Arizona and their backup and the other was against the
38:30
Speaker 1: Raiders and their backup and surprisingly both those teams actually
38:33
Speaker 1: played played well against his four Niners team. And we're
38:37
Speaker 1: not gonna talk a nasm about it, but I'm definitely
38:39
Speaker 1: gonna bring up a lot of trends that favored of
38:41
Speaker 1: the Eagles. The biggest one is at rookie in the
38:44
Speaker 1: in the championship game. Chat. Have you heard any of
38:46
Speaker 1: these stats about these rookies in this championship game? Okay,
38:49
Speaker 1: so we've had four since This is from my good
38:52
Speaker 1: friend Evan Abrahams. So they are one in three a
38:55
Speaker 1: t s open four straight up. In two thousand nine,
39:00
Speaker 1: we had Mark Sanchez, lovely, lovely Mark Sanchez. He actually
39:03
Speaker 1: had the best game of all these rookies. He had
39:05
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, one interception. They were plus seven and a
39:09
Speaker 1: half the Jets. They lost thirty to seventeen. Next up,
39:13
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight. He had zero touchdowns,
39:16
Speaker 1: three interceptions. He was plus six. They lost twenty four.
39:20
Speaker 1: Two thousand four, Ben Roethlisberger, he actually had a pretty
39:24
Speaker 1: good game, two touchdowns, three interceptions. They were plus three.
39:27
Speaker 1: Pretty close right now they lost forty one seven and
39:32
Speaker 1: Shaun king are alone cover Shaun King. He covered check
39:35
Speaker 1: because he was plus fourteen. He had zero touchdowns, two receptions,
39:40
Speaker 1: his team won eleven to six. So what you're taking
39:43
Speaker 1: away from yes, yes, yes, sorry, lost eleven and six,
39:47
Speaker 1: but covered the four team. So if you just go
39:49
Speaker 1: through those numbers, there's a reason brock Pretty looked like
39:52
Speaker 1: ship last week. Right, the competition steps up and he's
39:56
Speaker 1: a rook So look looking at this as is shaping out.
40:01
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Yes, brock Pretty did win in Seattle on
40:03
Speaker 1: that Thursday night game. I almost have missed that one
40:04
Speaker 1: was looking through um just looking through it. It's if
40:09
Speaker 1: you're backing them. If you are going to back the
40:11
Speaker 1: Four Nights, are you sure as hell better be on
40:13
Speaker 1: this under because that's your only chance, your only chance.
40:16
Speaker 1: What do you reading these numbers out? Is all four
40:19
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks had really good defenses. That's exactly what
40:22
Speaker 1: got those young quarterbacks to the championship game. I I
40:26
Speaker 1: hate this matchup for the Four Nights. I get what
40:28
Speaker 1: they're I get what they're saying is like, okay, we
40:30
Speaker 1: can stop to run all these other things and all
40:33
Speaker 1: the hate egos haven't played anyone. Even though the NFC
40:36
Speaker 1: East had the most wins I believe ever in football
40:39
Speaker 1: for a division. But yeah, he goos, I haven't played anyone. Uh.
40:43
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where I get the love
40:46
Speaker 1: for the pros on his four Knights team. He's been
40:48
Speaker 1: very profitable with them back in Pretty They're cashing big
40:51
Speaker 1: checks off of it. It's just like the Joe Burrow thing.
40:53
Speaker 1: Like a lot of these pros been back in Burrow
40:56
Speaker 1: all season. They've been making good money off it. It's
40:58
Speaker 1: the same thing here. Of I get it, I get
41:01
Speaker 1: the pretty love. It's way too much, way too much
41:04
Speaker 1: love at this point. Like this kid has been incredibly lucky.
41:07
Speaker 1: Now the big Pauses they played terrible and they still
41:11
Speaker 1: dominated Doc and that defense, that offense last week. But
41:14
Speaker 1: it's like we talked about it, like without Pollard was
41:17
Speaker 1: still in that game, it wouldn't have been as terrible
41:19
Speaker 1: for that Cowboys offense. Like once they they turned to Zeke,
41:22
Speaker 1: the run game was gone and there's no one your
41:23
Speaker 1: fear catching the ball in the backfield. That's how you
41:26
Speaker 1: attacked its four in ers team already talking about That's
41:27
Speaker 1: how the Chiefs dominated this team and put up over
41:30
Speaker 1: forty points against this fourg in hours team. So my
41:33
Speaker 1: early bet, I love the over and I love the Eagles.
41:36
Speaker 1: I still like the Eagles, and it's one of those
41:38
Speaker 1: where I'm I'm not gonna go so hard time people
41:40
Speaker 1: to take it here. Some open pros come in and
41:42
Speaker 1: bet this back down to two. Like again, two and
41:44
Speaker 1: a half is a key number. You'll be shocked, but
41:46
Speaker 1: it really is. So I have no doubt I love
41:49
Speaker 1: the Eagles here. Um, it's gonna be a surprise of
41:51
Speaker 1: no one. I'm probably gonna be all over them for
41:53
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl as well, just because there's no there's
41:56
Speaker 1: no defenses like our defense in the a f C
41:59
Speaker 1: other than Baltimore. Baltimore is basically the best D line
42:03
Speaker 1: I could think of in the FC, comparable to the
42:05
Speaker 1: Eagles D line, which, if you didn't know, they set
42:08
Speaker 1: the all time record for first defense that four guys
42:10
Speaker 1: have over ten sex. So, um, if you can get
42:13
Speaker 1: a futures on the Eagles line, if you can get
42:15
Speaker 1: that three, three and a half right now for them
42:17
Speaker 1: against any a f C team, take that line. I
42:20
Speaker 1: still I think the Egos are gonna be undervalued head
42:23
Speaker 1: into the Super Bowl. That the love is right now
42:25
Speaker 1: for Joe Burrow and if my homes can pull up
42:27
Speaker 1: that offset upset, that's where everyone's gonna betting. So this
42:31
Speaker 1: Egles team will just be undervalid. But the shocking part
42:34
Speaker 1: is that this isn't staying at three. So that's my
42:37
Speaker 1: big police chad where I might be too close to it.
42:40
Speaker 1: I might be discrediting party too much here, but I've
42:43
Speaker 1: just seen it time and time again. History repeats itself.
42:45
Speaker 1: A rookie going through a championship game. It's too big,
42:49
Speaker 1: and now you're putting this kid in Philly, one of
42:51
Speaker 1: the most hostile environments and football man, I just I
42:54
Speaker 1: just don't see it working out for them. So um,
42:57
Speaker 1: it's one of those where the line makes me nervous
42:59
Speaker 1: because it's so ten that two and a half it
43:01
Speaker 1: feels like too much of a gift. But we already
43:03
Speaker 1: talked about all the time. Two is such a key number.
43:06
Speaker 1: I will not be shocked to somehow this game lands
43:08
Speaker 1: on the two. I can't think of a stadium on
43:12
Speaker 1: the West Coast. I guess Seattle at its best. Where
43:20
Speaker 1: As a fan, I would be worried about the environment
43:23
Speaker 1: in the same way I would be worried about playing
43:26
Speaker 1: in Philly or playing in Chicago, the old the old
43:29
Speaker 1: Raiders Stadium with the baseball field and playing in Oakland,
43:32
Speaker 1: that that would happen have been something. You know. We
43:36
Speaker 1: talked about this on Green Dot Daily this morning. You
43:39
Speaker 1: said your favorite you love the over in this game,
43:42
Speaker 1: and I did too, and I couldn't put my figure
43:45
Speaker 1: on it. It was just one of those things where
43:47
Speaker 1: I looked at the number it felt really low. Eagles
43:50
Speaker 1: are an incredible offense. The the trend is to play
43:56
Speaker 1: the under, and I could not figure out why why
44:00
Speaker 1: do I like this over? I need like break it down?
44:03
Speaker 1: Why do I like this over? You just told me
44:04
Speaker 1: a lot about the Niners and pretty like, why is
44:08
Speaker 1: it over? The play here? Yeah? Why do I like
44:09
Speaker 1: it so much? Two different reasons, But the biggest one
44:11
Speaker 1: would just be I think both defenses right now are
44:16
Speaker 1: not peek overrated. But it doesn't get more higher than
44:19
Speaker 1: this where people are just terrified. Now this Eagle's defense
44:22
Speaker 1: are like, well, pretty, he's gonna have no time. He's
44:25
Speaker 1: gonna be getting dumped the whole time, where it's like
44:27
Speaker 1: this is what Shane Hanna lives for, like him scheming
44:29
Speaker 1: up against his Eagles defense. He's gonna find our weaknesses,
44:33
Speaker 1: and I promise you if I can spot a couple
44:34
Speaker 1: of weaknesses, he can spot them way better than me.
44:37
Speaker 1: So to me, the Eagles do have weaknesses on defenses
44:40
Speaker 1: that the Giants could not exploit. Pot Nani's offense can.
44:43
Speaker 1: Like they have one of the best tight ends of football.
44:46
Speaker 1: That's something Eagles struggle against his big, strong tight ends.
44:49
Speaker 1: Our linebackers are smaller like that. If each throws it
44:52
Speaker 1: up in the air the kittle, that's gonna be a
44:54
Speaker 1: free first down every play for them. Another thing we
44:57
Speaker 1: struggle struggle with his running backs catching a lot of
44:59
Speaker 1: the backfield. Not only did they have McCaffrey. If he's
45:02
Speaker 1: banged up, I really don't think that's a big deal
45:04
Speaker 1: to them because they had Debo. Like debo, he's like
45:07
Speaker 1: the sports card they've just had in the garage all season,
45:09
Speaker 1: Like they don't they've never needed to really take it
45:11
Speaker 1: out because it's like we got McCaffrey, we need a
45:14
Speaker 1: running back to do something, and then we got Youke
45:16
Speaker 1: on the outside. Now they make our wide receiver play.
45:19
Speaker 1: So to me, the over is to play mainly though, Chad,
45:23
Speaker 1: because of the value, Like this number should be forty
45:26
Speaker 1: seven it's forty five and a half. Like the public,
45:30
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the action app right now, they're all
45:32
Speaker 1: over this under any guess what the books just moved
45:36
Speaker 1: to the forty six. Brother, So I think the pros
45:39
Speaker 1: are in line with us in Yes, these defenses are good,
45:43
Speaker 1: incredibly beatable. It's schemed upright. Both defensive have major holes.
45:47
Speaker 1: I know for effects, Sanna can copy exactly the West
45:50
Speaker 1: Coast system that McDaniel rant with the Raiders, and we
45:53
Speaker 1: saw how dominant the Raiders were able to move the
45:55
Speaker 1: ball against this fors defense. Same thing with Andy Reid's offense.
46:00
Speaker 1: It's literally spread it out. West Coast System Eagles run
46:03
Speaker 1: the exact same thing. That's why if you noticed our
46:05
Speaker 1: tight ends get involved a lot, it's the same thing
46:07
Speaker 1: as Kelseys get involved in the Kansas City system. It's
46:10
Speaker 1: one of those offenses that's really based around you spread
46:13
Speaker 1: everything out, and that's what we're gonna do against this
46:15
Speaker 1: foreignis team where arguably the best defensive player in football,
46:19
Speaker 1: well two defensive players. I guess you could say Nick
46:22
Speaker 1: Boses obviously, but Fred Warner to me is he's everything
46:26
Speaker 1: I love like. He is so incredibly smart, hits so hard,
46:30
Speaker 1: and can play coverage like that play he had in
46:32
Speaker 1: that game running down the middle get in front of
46:34
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb was just fucking crazy. Dude. There's like two
46:37
Speaker 1: linebackers and football probably can keep up with a guy
46:40
Speaker 1: like Ceedee Lamber in the four three. So um, I
46:43
Speaker 1: just have so much respect for this Foreignis team. It's
46:46
Speaker 1: tough to pick him like pick and talk shit about him,
46:48
Speaker 1: but I gotta do it. And that's the that's the
46:51
Speaker 1: defensive weakness. Like you spread them out, teams can beat them.
46:54
Speaker 1: They have not played in offense like the Eagles. Eagles
46:57
Speaker 1: are I don't want to say historically the best run
47:01
Speaker 1: team ever, but you can look at the data. There's
47:03
Speaker 1: no there's no teams in history that have had more
47:05
Speaker 1: hundred fifty yard rushing games a hundred fifty yards before
47:08
Speaker 1: contact rushing games than the Eagles in NFL history. Like
47:12
Speaker 1: Kelsey all Pro we all know is Hall of Famer
47:16
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson didn't give up a single pressure last game
47:19
Speaker 1: with a torn row Like It's just it's crazy how
47:22
Speaker 1: good this offensive line is. So we talked about last week,
47:26
Speaker 1: Nick bos is incredible. Did you see his name pop
47:28
Speaker 1: up much in that Cowboys game Chad because you can
47:30
Speaker 1: scheme it, So I get the love for it. But
47:33
Speaker 1: that's the difference to me is the Eagles have four
47:35
Speaker 1: Nick bost not for Nick posts before, guys that can
47:37
Speaker 1: get pressure on the old line. Yeah, the four nine
47:40
Speaker 1: is probably have two really good pass rushers. So I
47:44
Speaker 1: love the fact that both defenses strength can be schemed
47:48
Speaker 1: out by both these offenses. So that's just to me
47:50
Speaker 1: why I kind of want to be in the over
47:52
Speaker 1: here where I know the public is gonna be so
47:54
Speaker 1: heavy on this under. It sucks. It's already at forty six. Cheat.
47:57
Speaker 1: I was hoping we'd get down at four. The pros
48:00
Speaker 1: aren't gonna let it. They're gonna be on this over
48:02
Speaker 1: so um the public. If you're just simply trying to
48:06
Speaker 1: fade the public this week, it's honestly a pretty boring
48:09
Speaker 1: easy week for you. Literally just back the Chiefs, you
48:11
Speaker 1: back to four niners, you back the over in that
48:15
Speaker 1: since the game, and you back the under in this game.
48:18
Speaker 1: It's I mean the over in this game. So um.
48:21
Speaker 1: We don't obviously bet that way, but it's it's no
48:24
Speaker 1: surprise we're looking at these numbers trying on Tuesday. I
48:27
Speaker 1: think the books their needs are gonna stay the exact same.
48:29
Speaker 1: I think exactly what we're saying right now, the publics
48:32
Speaker 1: already kind of made their stance. We know exactly what
48:34
Speaker 1: they're gonna do the rest of the week here. So
48:36
Speaker 1: the only thing I might change what Chad touched on
48:38
Speaker 1: my homes comes out to practice. He's running looking good.
48:42
Speaker 1: Uh this that that Chiefs number could come back down
48:45
Speaker 1: and the over could go back up. But everything else
48:47
Speaker 1: like this Eagles for Niners game. Only only crazy movement
48:51
Speaker 1: I could see is this number come down to two
48:53
Speaker 1: one and a half. We're going up to three and
48:54
Speaker 1: a half. That would be it. Uh. If we were
48:58
Speaker 1: to do a Foxhall sign and foxhol Simon says exact
49:01
Speaker 1: decision in big balls right now, I feel like I
49:06
Speaker 1: don't think we're prepared to do that right now, to
49:08
Speaker 1: be honest, Yeah, I mean, going into my head, I could,
49:10
Speaker 1: but I would want to do that. No, I think
49:12
Speaker 1: we gotta wait. There's two games. We gotta milk it
49:15
Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, I gotta milk it a little bit.
49:18
Speaker 1: We're wrap though, like our early leads. Like the biggest
49:20
Speaker 1: thing we're flipping flopping on is we don't know what
49:23
Speaker 1: we want to do we like, since you're going to
49:24
Speaker 1: this matchup, but the value shipped into the Chiefs. So
49:27
Speaker 1: here's what I would say. I do think the spirit
49:30
Speaker 1: of Simon says is better number before it's gone. I
49:35
Speaker 1: think Simon says, bet the over in Eagles and um niners.
49:42
Speaker 1: That's fair if you get the forty five and a half. Yeah,
49:48
Speaker 1: I'll tell the check. I think we'll see what Vandal has.
49:51
Speaker 1: I think it's mostly at forty six. To be honest,
49:55
Speaker 1: Goddamn Green Dot Daily seriously, right, um, yeah, you're right, Yeah, yeah,
50:03
Speaker 1: damn dandel is already up to forty six and a half.
50:05
Speaker 1: I was going to say, there's some places that are
50:07
Speaker 1: forty and I mean we move lines. That's what we do.
50:11
Speaker 1: I don't tell you like I wish we were lying,
50:14
Speaker 1: but honest to God, talking about these things. It used
50:17
Speaker 1: to be we could talk about these things and I
50:19
Speaker 1: can wait until after the show to bet him. Fortunately
50:21
Speaker 1: I bet everything earlier today. But you can't even do
50:24
Speaker 1: that anymore. Yeah, and obviously you know what, that's not ideal.
50:31
Speaker 1: It's up to forty six and a half. I'm not
50:32
Speaker 1: even I'm not even you know what we're waiting? Well,
50:36
Speaker 1: let's wait until Thursday. We'll go, we'll know more information.
50:40
Speaker 1: Things will be settling a little bit more. With two games,
50:42
Speaker 1: there's too much attention being paid to him. You need
50:44
Speaker 1: you need more time. Um, So I guess that's it
50:49
Speaker 1: for now. I mean we'll be back on Thursday and
50:50
Speaker 1: we'll know more information about the homes and some of
50:54
Speaker 1: these lines will be settling a little bit more. I
50:57
Speaker 1: mean doing our show since you moved up the two
50:59
Speaker 1: and a half on vandal. Really yeah, that's crazy. Yes,
51:04
Speaker 1: who's listening? Big money? Guess who's listening? That's amazing? All right,
51:12
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Value and Podcast Network.
51:17
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mowman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producers
51:20
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. We will be back on Thursday. We will
51:24
Speaker 1: give out our foxhold. We will give out our son
51:25
Speaker 1: and says. We will give out our exact decision. We
51:27
Speaker 1: will give our big balls. We need to get some
51:30
Speaker 1: some settling done here download us an Apple Podcasts and
51:33
Speaker 1: Spotify wherever you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe it
51:36
Speaker 1: was five stars. Say whatever you want until next time.
51:39
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
51:49
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.
51:51
Speaker 1: Help is available. Seven gambler