Why the Fed Is Watching the Iran War Energy Spike

The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy · May 31, 2026 · 8m · transcript

Oil prices have surged over 20% since the Iran conflict escalated, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge just hit 3.3%. Lucas and Luna dig into why the central bank can't ignore energy-driven inflation the way it could in 2022. They examine how the current spike differs from the Ukraine shock—tighter labor markets, less headroom on rates, and a Fed that's already stuck at 3.64%. They also unpack the 'double scar' effect: consumers still smarting from the 2021-2023 inflation wave now face another price shock. With the ten-year breakeven rate at just 2.38%, bond…