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Tuesday BEST BETS | Huge Hockey Day | NHL & MLB ALCS & NCAA Football | 10/13/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out That fell apart by its
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: heart But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on,
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: stay with me.
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: Now. What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: Sports Tuesday, October 13th. Got the Mizorowski jersey on, you know.
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm still not convinced Milwaukee's going to actually
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: win the series. I mean, The back end of their
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: pitching rotation is really bad, so that's what we're going
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: to see in the next two games. We'll see. They're
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: not playing today, though. It's mostly hockey today. There's a
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: lot of hockey. We lost in the game yesterday. You
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: knew it was dead right away. 1-1 after the first inning.
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: I had the under in the first five in Brewers-Milwaukee.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: Yamamoto did not have it at all. I've never seen
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: him that bad, probably ever. I don't know what else
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: to say about that. Then it started kind of trending
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: in the right direction when it was still 1-1 in
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: the third inning, but Yamamoto was already out of the game. Yeah,
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: it just totally blew up. It did not go well.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Both games wound up going over. I think first five
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: under probably did hit in the other game after Milwaukee
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: got their win. Cleveland with a huge comeback late in
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: the game. Not a huge comeback, really. Well, for Cleveland,
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: I guess it is. They were down 2-0. They put
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: up a ton of late runs in that game. And
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: we were able to win that game. Whatever. Yeah, I mean,
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: the Monday Night Football game was total BS. I mean,
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: didn't have a play on it, but lost the pick
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: in my pick-em pools on the Rams. I mean, Josh
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: Allen was not good in that game at all. He
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: was like around 500 completion percentage. I don't know what
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: else to say about that. And then, obviously, we know
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: maybe the Rams got a little bit lucky that Buffalo
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: fumbled on the opening game. possession after the Rams marched
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: down the field and tied it at the end of regulation.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: Although I thought the Rams had a chance to do
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: that because Buffalo's defense blows. But then Rams against Buffalo's
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: bad defense, what do they do? They just stall out
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: and they resign themselves to a long field goal attempt
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: to try to win the game. Like, what are you doing?
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: Like 47, 48 yards. You got to try to get closer, man. Horrible,
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: horrible decisions by McVay there. you're up against a bad
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: defense that's letting you move the ball constantly. Why would
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: you not try to get more yardage and get a
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: more sure field goal attempt? You know what I mean?
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: Of course, thicker kicker doesn't have it. It got partially blocked.
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: Just absolutely ridiculous, which would have won the game for
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: the Rams, whatever. A lot of hockey today, man. Like
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: almost every hockey team is in action. I think every
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: hockey team might be in action here. I think we
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: have 16 games. Going to try to do this quickly.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: And then there is one MLB game and college football.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: New Jersey at Detroit is the ESPN game at 6 p.m.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: We have an ESPN triple header, basically. This is probably
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: the least interesting of the three games, I would say.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: I don't have much on this game. Detroit has lost
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: two games in a row here. New Jersey's on a back-to-back, though.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: They just played yesterday, and they lost to Ottawa at home.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: Detroit hasn't played since Saturday, and they're 1-3-1 right now.
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: So Detroit has the extra rest. They're coming off a
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: big performance, though, where they took Montreal into a shootout.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: So I don't necessarily know if I would really want
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: Detroit off of that game. But New Jersey, again, they
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: played yesterday, although they got destroyed by Ottawa, at least
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: on the scoreboard. in the game yesterday. So what do
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: we do with that? Detroit's coming off the bigger game,
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: but they have way more rest. And New Jersey's playing
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: a third game in four days now, though the first
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: two are at home. Neither team has really looked that
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: good so far. I got pretty much nothing on this.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: The money seems to slightly be indicating towards Detroit here.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: Some of it partially because of the rest, though. And
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: you got to know that the rest... Factors into the line, right?
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: Like the odds makers are going to skew this line
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: a little bit because of the rest. They're still pretty
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: much telling you New Jersey is actually the better of
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: these two teams, though. 52% of tickets are on New Jersey,
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: 52% of the cash on Detroit at about minus 115
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: right now. There's not even much to read as far
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: as that market read is concerned. This game is really
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: difficult to figure out. I have pretty much nothing on it.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're just conflicting factors. The team with the
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: rest edge is coming off a more difficult game. What
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: do we do with that? I honestly, I don't know.
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: It's a pass for me. Don't even have an opinion
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: on it, really. Florida at Columbus. Columbus, they have some rest.
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: They're coming off losing to the Blues. I wish this
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: loaded faster, man. Columbus has a couple of days off here.
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: They're coming back home from a single road game. In St. Louis,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: they're coming back home. Both their wins have come at
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: home so far. So they're probably a little bit better
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: of a home team. Florida played yesterday, I believe, but
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: they lost to Buffalo. Still maybe kind of a big game, though,
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: because Buffalo made the playoffs last year. Florida's playing a
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: third game in four days now, all in different cities.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: So I would lean towards the rest advantage in this one,
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: and I would lean towards Columbus here. Both teams coming
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: off losses. Florida had a bigger game. Yesterday, Florida will
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: have Markstrom back in net here as they have him
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: as one of their goalies now, along with Schmid, who
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: played yesterday. Markstrom has been their goalie and their only
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: wins on the season so far, so that's an okay
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: sign for Florida, though. Florida, 57% of tickets, 72% of
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. Columbus is favored. They're up to
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: about minus 120. They actually opened lower than that, so
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: the initial move was actually towards Columbus here. Again, I
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: think I would lean to Columbus. I think Columbus gets
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: not a whole lot of credit in the public eye,
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: so I think they're not really going to want Columbus here.
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: They might be thinking, well, Florida's an underdog and kind
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: of lean that way. So I'm going to slightly lean
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: to Columbus with the rest edge. Oddsmakers kind of telling
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: you that they have a little bit of an advantage
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: in this game because some of it because of the
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: rest for sure, which is skewing the line a little bit,
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: but Yeah, the money looks like it's a little bit
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: on Florida, but I would kind of link Columbus there.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: Buffalo at Montreal. Buffalo played yesterday, like I said, big
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: win for them over Florida, even though, again, Florida wasn't
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: that good last year. But I think everybody kind of
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: knows Florida's a good team, and they won two Stanley
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: Cups in a row before last year. But Buffalo's not
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: going to overlook Montreal either. I mean, Montreal, they made
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: a pretty deep playoff run last year. Buffalo has not
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: played on the road since the first game of the
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: season where they lost badly at Columbus. So this Buffalo
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: team has been at home the whole time since then.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: You know I'm not really sold on this Buffalo team.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: I think they overperformed last year. They're playing a third
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: game in four days right now. having to travel to Montreal.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: Usually the start of a road trip is a focus spot, though,
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: but on a back-to-back off of beating Florida, maybe not.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: It'll be Ellis in net for them this time. Lukanen
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: is kind of their primary goalie here. I don't think
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: it matters that much between those two goalies. I don't
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: think either of them are particularly good. Montreal hasn't played
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: since Saturday. They're staying at home. They're coming off a
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: 1-0 shootout win against Detroit. They do have Washington tomorrow, though,
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: so there is the potential of a look ahead there. However,
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't know if they're going to overlook Buffalo, though,
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: because Buffalo, again, made the playoffs last year. But the game,
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: Buffalo's not going to overlook Montreal either, though, because this
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: is a revenge spot for Buffalo, I'm pretty sure. So
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: there's a lot going on here. Yeah, Montreal knocked Buffalo
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: out of the playoffs last year. So that's the type
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: of revenge that does matter. And Buffalo had won the
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: division as well. So that was considered to me an upset,
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: even though I didn't think Buffalo was that good. So
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: this is a revenge spot for Buffalo. So Buffalo may
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: not overlook Montreal for that reason. And in fact, the
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: money is kind of indicated towards Buffalo here. Montreal about
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: minus 155. Again, you know the price is going to
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: be jacked up on them because Buffalo is playing a
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: back-to-back here. So you know you're not going to get
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: as much line value playing the team with the rest edge.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: 78% of tickets, 64% of the cash on Montreal. So
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: they're a public side with less of the money on them.
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: Money indicated towards Buffalo. Montreal at about minus 150-something here. Initially,
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: I was leaning Montreal here, but it's tough, dude. I mean,
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: the reason to maybe look towards Buffalo is that that
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: revenge angle, I think, does matter. a little bit, plus
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Montreal being a little bit heavier priced because of the
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: rest edge. You know, maybe. I don't really disagree with
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: Buffalo there. You could make, like, a plus-one puck line there.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: I really would not want them on a back-to-back, though,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: off of what was kind of a big win yesterday, too, so. Yeah,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, that game is also a pass for me.
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: Washington at Carolina. This is one of the better games
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: of the day here, but this game not televised except
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: for NHL. Well, not even NHL Network. ESPN Plus, I guess,
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: has it. Carolina, they're hot right now, man. They've won
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: a bunch of games in a row, but this might
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: be a spot where maybe you fade them. They've looked good,
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: but now they're playing a third game in four days,
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: all in different cities. They're returning home from a road trip.
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: They've been on the road only Saturday, Sunday, though, so
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: it was only a weekend trip. So it's not one
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: of those long road trip returns where I talk about
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: how when a team returns home from a road trip,
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: they can get distracted. They got home stuff to deal
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: with when they get back home. Maybe still the case
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: with Carolina, though, and they have to go back out
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: on the road after this, starting a road trip in
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: their next game, although they're going to be at home
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: for a few days. But maybe that's a distraction. However,
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Carolina lost to Washington already. here at home. Carolina lost
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: their first two games of the season. The second one
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: was actually here at home to Washington. So Carolina might
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: change some things and try to fix what went wrong
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: in that game. If you look at that game, it
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: was a fairly close game statistically, although Carolina did have
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a shot edge, but that was
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: partially because they were losing badly most of the game.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: But they were kind of the more physical team. I
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: don't know what that was. At least StreamYard didn't kill
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: the stream here. That was bizarre. Hold on. Let me
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: get my screen back up. I think I hit the
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: back button in the wrong browser window. That was dumb.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: All right. Anyway, yeah, Carolina had more hits in the
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: game at the very least. So, you know, what do
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: we do with this? Well, maybe Carolina does bounce back
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: from that. However, I think Washington's an under-the-radar commodity, man.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: And Washington's coming off an ugly loss to Seattle. Have
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: a single-game road trip here, which is sometimes weird, but
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: I don't see Washington overlooking Carolina, obviously, because they're the
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: Stanley Cup champs here. So even though it is a
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: quick revenge spot for Carolina, technically... To me, I don't know.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: The spot looks a little bit better for Washington here
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: coming off an ugly loss. I think Washington might be
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: undervalued in the market still right now. Carolina might be
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: overvalued because they've won five straight games. I'm not going
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: to say Carolina's bad. Obviously, they're not. But look at
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: this run that they've had. They beat the Flyers twice,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: the Blackhawks, the Canucks. The only good win they had
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: in here really was against Montreal. So they've had an
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: easy schedule pretty much. And the toughest two teams they
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: played debatably were Oh, not even debatably. It's just true.
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: Panthers and Capitals, they lost both those games, both of
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: them at home. So, yeah, I'm going to still lean
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: Washington in this one. And the money seems to agree. Carolina,
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: 82% of the tickets on them, 56% of the cash
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: on Washington. Carolina, about a minus 160 favorite there. So
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: those are my thoughts on that one. Next game up
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: is going to be a play for me. I have
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: three hockey plays here. Oh, they're ugly. So you know
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: what I'm doing in this next game. I'm just going
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: to take the headphones off. They're falling off my head.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: I feel like with the headphone on, I don't know,
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: my voice feels like it's echoing more too. Maybe I
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: can dial down my voice a little bit here. Maybe
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: that'll be a little bit better. I don't know. If
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: people could still hear me, I don't know. I got
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: to somehow rest my voice, man. But yes, Seattle at Philadelphia.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: You know what we're doing here, man. Philadelphia is a
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: small favorite. The public's going to be thinking, why is
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: an A team with no wins, what are they, 0-6, whatever, 0-4-2,
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: whatever they are. Why would Philadelphia be laying a price here? Well,
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are telling you there still isn't that much
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: that separates these two teams. Yeah, Philadelphia's played bad. They're
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: probably not that good. I'm going to tell you Seattle's
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: not that good either, though, and this is also not
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: a good spot for Seattle. Seattle just beat Washington. in
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: their most recent game. That's a big win, man. That's
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: a big upset win. Washington, even though people might not
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: realize it, they're definitely a good team. That was, I think,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: a pretty big upset, let me say. Yeah, Washington was
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: a minus 200 favorite in that game. And if you
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: dig into this, Washington was the way better team in
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: the game. Washington had way more shots. They had way
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: more hits. They won the face-off battle as well. So
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: this was... Really, it was a misleading result. So you
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: have Seattle coming off a big upset that was misleading.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: They're playing a Philly team that might just look right
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: past because Philly hasn't beaten anybody. Seattle's already 2-0 on
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: this road trip. And coming up next, they've got to
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: play Tampa Bay and then Florida to finish the road trip.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: So those games are going to attract your attention more.
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is off to a good start. They're a
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: good team. Florida is a good team as well. So Philadelphia,
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: this is the down spot in the schedule for Seattle.
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: And Seattle is not what they look like. Yeah, they're 4-2,
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: but two of their wins are against Calgary, the worst
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: team in the league probably. And then one of their
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: other wins was against Detroit, like I just mentioned. So
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: that's not that impressive either. Their only impressive win so
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: far is the one against Washington. Like I said, it
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: was misleading. I actually think Philadelphia has a pretty good
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: shot to win this game. Philadelphia... Staying at home here,
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: they lost again on Sunday, but if you dig into
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: that box score, they lost to Carolina. I mean, you're
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: not going to knock them for losing to Carolina, right?
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, Carolina's good, and we know that. Philly got
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: outshot in the game, but they did play physical. They
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: were the more physical team in the game, and Carolina's
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: kind of known as a physical team, too, so that
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: wasn't that bad. And Philadelphia, they faced a really difficult schedule, dude.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: They've played Carolina twice, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Pittsburgh. I know
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: I'm not high on Pittsburgh, but Ottawa, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Boston. Basically,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: all these teams were in the playoffs last year. The
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: majority of those games, Philadelphia had to play on the
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: road as well. Four of their games have been on
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: the road so far, so I think Philadelphia's not quite
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: as bad as they appear to be. Unfortunately, it will
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: be Vladar in net again for this one, most likely,
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: and he's been definitely their worst goalie here, so that
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: has me a little bit concerned because Wall has been
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: their better goalie, but I say we roll with it anyway.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: It's about the spot. I have no idea why the
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: market is not agreeing with me on this. 67% of
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: the tickets and 94% of the cash on Seattle. Makes
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: no sense to me. It looks way too easy to
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: play Seattle. Why would anybody lay a favorite price with
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: a winless Philadelphia team against a 4-2 Seattle team? It
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: looks so stupid. It looks like the books are handing
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: you money on Seattle here. But we know that's not
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: what they're doing, obviously. There's a reason why Philly is favored.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: The line has dropped a little bit on Philly. I
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: don't get it. I don't know why. I'm going to
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: assume Philly's got to be the sharp side unless it's
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: really just that Vladar is so awful that everybody wants
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: to fade him just because he's him. That's not a
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: good enough reason, though. I just gave you the situational
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: read on this. We'll take Philadelphia here. I think it's
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: the first time I'm actually trying to play Philadelphia. I've
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: given them out as a lean a couple of times,
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: but this time I say we actually play them. I
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: think it's a spot to do it. All right, Tampa
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Bay at the Rangers. When you look at this, you'll
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: notice right away, Tampa Bay is a huge favorite, even
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: though they're on the road. They're in the minus 160s,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: even though they're 4-1, and the Rangers are 5-2. And
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: unlike last year, the Rangers are 4-0 at home. Yet
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: the oddsmakers are telling you they're not buying it. The
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are telling you Tampa Bay is the way better
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: team out of the two here. They're not buying this
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: hot start for the Rangers. The Rangers also lost Shusterkin,
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: their main goalie. Although Garand, the guy who's filling in
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: for him, he's been good. There's no doubt about that.
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: Rangers continue to win here. But I might have to
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: go with what the oddsmakers are telling me on this.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Rangers have some wins that aren't that
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: impressive in here against the Islanders. Detroit, Vancouver was their
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: most recent result. They did beat Tampa Bay. But if
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: you dig into that, that was with Shusterkin, obviously. for
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: the Rangers you dig into this this is a close
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: game statistically and Tampa won the hit battle at least
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: although big face off edge for the Rangers but still
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: that game wasn't a 5-1 result really um Rangers won
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: the game 5-1 but digging into the box score the
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: stats don't justify that uh final score so this is
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a quick revenge spot for Tampa
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: Bay having come in here and gotten kind of embarrassed
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: here the last time they were here. It was kind
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: of a misleading result. The Rangers now don't have Shusterk,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: and oddsmakers are telling you that Tampa's the way better team,
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: even though the records make it look like this is
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: kind of a close matchup. I think I'm going to
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: have to kind of lean into that a little bit
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: and go with Tampa Bay here. In fact, Tampa Bay's
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: only loss on the season was that game against the Rangers,
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: although Tampa Bay's only played two road games so far,
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: both in New York. One was against the Islanders. and
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: they won that game, but Tampa Bay obviously remembers that.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: Their only loss on the season was here at Madison
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Square Garden. You know they're going to remember that and
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: try to come in here and give a better effort
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: this time. I would lean Tampa Bay in this one.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: They're coming off that win over the Islanders. No big deal.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: They've had a couple days off and they're staying in
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: New York which is not a really bad spot for
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: them either so I think Tampa Bay is the right
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: side here although they look fairly public still as well
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: 82% of the tickets although hard to gauge how much
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: public activity is really going on here because I'd like
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: to see like with the actual volume is, right? Because
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: the public usually just doesn't bet hockey to that extent,
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: even though it is the majority of games today. And
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: this is one of the games with two teams with
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: better records, so it might attract the public a little
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: bit more. 82% of tickets, 95% of the cash on
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. They're about minus 160 there on the money line.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: And like I said, it's that way for a reason.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: I think Tampa's the right side there. All right, St.
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: Louis at Ottawa. Ottawa got the win yesterday against the Devils.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: They've won three in a row. Allmark will not be
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: in net this time, though, because he played yesterday. So
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: likely they're going to go to Urson. And by the way,
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: Urson has only played one game for Ottawa this year,
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: and they just happened to lose that game. That was
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: Ottawa's only loss on the season. It was the only
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: game with Allmark not starting. So that's not a great
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: sign for Ottawa coming into this one. It's also not
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: great they're playing a back-to-back, returning home from New Jersey,
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: and they're playing a third game in four days. And
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: the prior game was a shootout at home against Nashville.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: Urson likely to be in net here. He's the lesser
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: goalie here, like I said. They're 0-1 with him in net.
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: So some things not looking great for Ottawa here. For St. Louis,
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: they have more rest. They're starting a road trip here,
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: I believe, which is usually a positive spot, starting a
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: road trip. They have two days off. St. Louis, by
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: the way, won at home against Columbus last time out,
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: breaking a three-game losing streak. So that's good when you
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: break a losing streak. That'll give you some positive momentum.
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: They can carry that out on the road. They do
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: have a big game on deck, though, against Minnesota. So
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: the question is, are they going to look ahead to
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: Minnesota because that's a big divisional game? I don't know
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: because Ottawa's been a decent team. Not exactly a team
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: we're going to completely overlook. So I think St. Louis
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: is the side to look at in this game. Doesn't
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: make my card or anything. Ottawa looks like they're going
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: to be public. 65% of tickets, although 68% of the
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: cash on them. It looks too easy to play Ottawa, though. Like,
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: they're the team with the better record. They got, like,
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: a really low price on them here. Minus 115, basically,
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: is where it's at. It looks too easy to play
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: Ottawa at a cheap price like that, I think. So, yeah,
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: that would also have me leaning towards St. Louis there.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: That would be my opinion in that game. That's one
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: of the stronger opinions that I have. Obviously, not as
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: strong as the play I gave out. But out of
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: all the games so far, that one might be stronger
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: than the rest. But also, you know... The price is
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: going to be a little bit cheaper on Ottawa because
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: they played yesterday. The books do have to skew it
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: for the rest advantage that St. Louis has a little bit.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: If that wasn't the case, Ottawa would probably be about
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: minus 130 here, I think. The oddsmakers are not actually
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: telling you St. Louis is the better team, which I
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: don't think they are. But the rest is a factor here.
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: At a price where you're still going to get St.
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: Louis probably at a slight underdog price, I still think
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: that's the way to look in that game. And I
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: am playing on one team that has a rest edge,
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: I think, today. So we'll see when I get to it.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: Vancouver is at the Islanders. This is an ugly matchup, dude,
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: but Vancouver's so bad. They're still a huge underdog here.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: The Islanders are coming up a loss to, what was it,
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay? Yeah. If you dig into this, though, it
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: was a close game, I'm pretty sure, statistically. Yeah, and
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: the Islanders actually out-hit Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay, I think,
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: kind of known as more of a scoring team, like
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: a finesse team to some extent. The Islanders were hanging
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: in this game, dude. This was a tied game for
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: the whole third period until Tampa scored with less than
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: two minutes in the game. And then it was Hagel,
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: and then he also put an empty net in, which
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: gave him the hat trick at the end of the
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: game there. But don't be misled by the 5-3. final here.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: This is a 3-3 game in the final two minutes
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: of the game. That's kind of a brutal loss for
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: the Islanders. By the way, that supports Tampa Bay in
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: their game more because Tampa Bay is coming off a
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: scare against an Islanders team that isn't really that good.
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: So that should have Tampa Bay more focus as well.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: But meanwhile, I think that sets up a flat spot
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: for the Islanders here because they're coming off almost pulling
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: off an upset against a good team like the Lightning.
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: The Islanders were right in that game and then they
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: fell down Fell short at the end. I think this
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: is a flat spot for them. They might overlook a
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: really bad Vancouver team here, and they got Ottawa on deck.
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: The Islanders do. They got to go out on the
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: road and face Ottawa, who's been a playoff team multiple
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: years in the last few seasons, I think. So that'll
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: be a bigger game for them, too. So I think
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: the way to look at this game is to take
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: Vancouver on the puck line. Vancouver is staying in New York,
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: and they're coming off an ugly loss. they are probably
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: going to try to avoid getting swept in the New
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: York trio here. They've lost every game on the road
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: trip so far, but it's been bad. There's no doubt
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: about it. It's been really bad. Lincoln has been in
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: net for all these games. They've lost all of them.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: Maybe Vancouver should switch to Maryland, man, because the only
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: game he played, they won, although it was a home
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: game against Calgary. I thought it was a bad spot
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: for Vancouver in that game, though, and they were still
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: able to get that win.
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: Maybe they will use him here. Vancouver, they use Lankanen
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: on both ends of a back-to-back on the 10th and
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: the 11th, and they use him on the 8th. I
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: don't know why the hell they would do that. So
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: they might use Merrill Lane in this game finally. They're playing,
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: what is this, a fourth game in six days. Well,
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: not all in different cities because they're playing New Jersey,
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: New York, New York all in a row here, but
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: all in different arenas. That's still difficult to do, dude.
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: And the first game of the road trip was in Carolina,
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: so I don't really want Vancouver either just because the
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: rest spot looks pretty ugly here. But they're staying in
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: New York. They're probably going to finally switch to their
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: rested goalie again here, Merrill Lane, and who got them
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: a win at least the last time he played. Maybe
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: they'll look ahead to Florida. Actually, yeah, like... What I
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: was going to say is that the other negative is
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: maybe they're looking ahead to Florida here, but I'm not
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: so sure about that because they don't want to get
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: swept in the three New York area games here. So
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: I think Vancouver will show up with some effort in
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: this one. I mean, you're losing every game. You've got
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: to show effort, right? The money seems to agree with
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: Vancouver here. 87% of the tickets, 70% of the cash
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: on the Islanders. They're around minus 220, so you can
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: give Vancouver a plus 1.5 on the puck line here.
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: I think that's the way I would play that game
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: is to take them on the puck line, take them
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: to come within 1.5 goals there. Maybe they'll be able
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: to play it close and cash that. Whenever you're on
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: the plus 1.5 puck line, though, you always got to
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: worry about the empty netter, though. It definitely could happen.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh and Chicago, yeah, you're not going to like this one.
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: Like I said, you're not going to like my plays
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: today at all. We're going ugly, man, although there is
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: one game with a winless team against a team that
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: hasn't lost yet, and I'm not going to be involved
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: in that game. So that would be ugly, too. But
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: we're going to take the Chicago Blackhawks here. You can
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: give them a plus 125 on the money line. So
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: this is the type of play where it's a money
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: line underdog. And at this price, you don't even have
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: to hit 50% of these to win long term. So
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: I'm not saying that they're definitely going to win, but
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: what I'm saying is I think they have a better
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: chance to win than what the oddsmakers are giving you,
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: and I think Pittsburgh's an overrated team. I know Chicago's
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: not that good, but I think this is a good
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: spot to grab them as the home underdog here. And again,
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: plus money, you only have to hit maybe like 46%,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: 47% of these at this price to win long-term, so
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: that's what we're going to try to do here. Of course,
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: we're trying to get the win. Pittsburgh's coming off a
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: big win over Dallas, though. I mean, Dallas, I know
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: they're out of conference. That's a huge win, though. Dallas,
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're a good team year in and year out. Really,
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: really good. Pittsburgh, big win in a shootout there. Two
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: straight shootout games. That was back-to-back Friday, Saturday. They've had
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: two days off since then, but after they play Chicago here...
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: which I know it's the start of a road trip.
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: A lot of times you're focused to start the road trip,
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: but coming off a big win over Dallas and with
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: Colorado and Vegas on deck and then Utah and Florida,
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: all those games are against better teams than Chicago. So
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: this looks like the down spot in Pittsburgh's schedule. I
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: think it's a sandwich between the top two teams in
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: the central here immediately, Dallas and Colorado. I think they
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: might get caught in the sandwich coming off that nice
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: win over Dallas. Pittsburgh, I'm not buying them. They're 3-2-1.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: They made the playoffs last year, but I don't think
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: they're that good of a team. I think Chicago can
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: at least hang around in this game. I know they
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: only have one win so far. That win did come
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: at home against St. Louis. And Chicago, I mean, their
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: schedule's been pretty brutal, dude. So I think they're not
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: quite as bad as their record looks. They're staying at home.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: They haven't played since Saturday. They lost to Carolina at home.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: They got outplayed in this game. There's no doubt about that.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: But still, I mean, Carolina's just a way better team
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: than Chicago, and they're also better than Pittsburgh. So Chicago
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: gets to kind of step back down in class here.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: And again, Chicago, they played four games on the road
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: so far, and they lost all four of them. At home,
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: they're 1-1, and their only home loss was to that
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: Carolina team, so... Chicago has at least looked better at home.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: I presume it will be Knight in that again. He's
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: been their primary goalie. He was in net when they
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: won that game against St.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: I assume it will be him because they have multiple
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: days off here. So yeah, I like it. Chicago, bounce
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: back spot, multiple days off, staying at home, and they
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: catch a Pittsburgh team that I think is in a sandwich.
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: Money isn't completely agreeing with me on this. Pittsburgh's up
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: to about minus 160-something now, so you might actually be
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: able to turn this into a plus-one puck line, actually.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: Maybe we should do that. Let me see. 79% of
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: the tickets and 95% of the cash on Pittsburgh. I
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: don't like that it looks like the money is actually
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: driving this line up, but I'm wondering if it's like
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: a false move and if the money's going to come
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: back in on Chicago or later in the day because
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: I just don't really see Pittsburgh being any sort of
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: you know actual like professional side here or anything like
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: that but let me take a look at what the
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: um the price is on this maybe we'll switch to
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: a um money line uh split here yeah I mean
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: you can get like plus 137 on the Chicago money
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: line now let me see um I mean, the spread
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: is still a bit hefty, though. Like, the best price
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: that you can get on the spread, I see minus
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: 180 out there, but it's mostly in the minus 200 range. So,
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: you know, maybe still just fire on the money line,
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: but it looks like it's about plus 137 now. So
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: you can get an even better price on it. Yeah,
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: I say maybe just stick with the money line on
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: this one. Let me see. Yeah, hold on. I'm going
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: to switch this in the system right now because you
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: can get a better price on it right now. Plus
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: 137 on it. Yeah, why not? If it gets to
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: be a little bit bigger than that, maybe switch to
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: the split bet on the puck line and money line.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: I will update it in the description if I decide
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: to switch it to that. But as of now, I'm
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: sticking with Chicago on the money line in that one.
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: And I think we're at least fading the public with that.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: Next game up is my last play that I'm going
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: to give out on the show. Minnesota at Winnipeg. We'll
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: continue with the best bets segment here. We're taking Winnipeg.
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: Minus 108 here. It looks way too easy, I think,
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: to play Minnesota here. I mean, we all know Minnesota
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: is the better of these two teams. The oddsmakers are
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: actually giving Winnipeg some respect here, even though I don't
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: actually think Winnipeg is that good. They don't have Hellebuck
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: right now, as we know. I don't believe he's back,
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: although if he is, I don't know if that's a
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: concern because he'd be coming in cold, but I don't
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: think he's playing. Let me see. Is he even on
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: the roster? He is. Let me see. Yeah, he's still
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: on the injury reserve, but I think he's really suspended
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: because he's refusing to play. It'll probably be Skinner in
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: net for Winnipeg, which I don't like him that much.
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: He was on Edmonton for a while, but at least
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: he's experienced, and they've not lost in regulation yet with
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: Skinner in net, and they beat Colorado with him in net,
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: so that's not a bad sign if it's going to
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: be Skinner here, and Winnipeg's got a bunch of days
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: off here. They haven't played since Friday, and I gave
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: out Anaheim against them On the show on Friday, we
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: got the win with Anaheim 5-1. But remember what I
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: said about that game. Winnipeg was coming off a huge
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: win over Colorado. I didn't even realize they were going
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: to switch to Stevenson and Nett. He didn't do that
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: well in the game. But I also said Winnipeg had
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: a look ahead to Minnesota. This is a huge divisional
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot that Winnipeg had against Anaheim. And yeah, they
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: got caught. Anaheim beat them. But part of that handicap
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: was that Winnipeg was going to be looking ahead and
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: they were going to be focused against Minnesota. I think
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: they will be. Winnipeg staying at home off an ugly
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: home loss, a lot of times that will set up
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: a bounce back spot. I know they lost a three-game
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: win streak, but it was an explainable loss. Yeah, sometimes
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: with the win streak loss you will be hung over,
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: but I don't think so in this game. I think
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: Winnipeg is going to show up. for a divisional game
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: like this, a big game. If you dig into this
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: box score, Anaheim was the more physical team, no doubt
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: about that, but this game was not totally what it
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: looked like. I mean, it was a 2-0 game going
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: into the third period, and some of the stats were
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: pretty close. Anaheim really did not have that many shots.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: It looks like Winnipeg's goaltending was definitely failing in that game,
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: but Skinner, I know he's not that good, but hopefully
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: he won't be good enough in this game. Uh, plus
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think I like the spot from Minnesota here.
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: Cause they're coming up to pretty big wins, really a
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: few big games in a row where they went into
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay and, um, Actually, well, they were in Buffalo
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: on the 6th and went to overtime. They were in
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay and played them close. They were in Florida
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: and beat them. And then they beat Vegas yesterday. So, yes,
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: I know part of the reason why this line is
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: not bigger on Minnesota is because Minnesota is on a back-to-back.
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: But when you're kind of in the pick-the-winner price range here,
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: I'm still going to go with it, even though I
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: know that the line is being skewed a little bit
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: because Minnesota's on a back-to-back. I'm still not sure it's
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: factoring in how bad the spot is for Minnesota because
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: if you look at this here, Minnesota, I mean, they're
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: playing a lot of games in quick succession, dude. This
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: is five games in eight days, all of them in
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: different cities, actually. So they're traveling between all of these
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: different games here. They just had a huge game against
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: the conference winners, Vegas, at home. Now, a single-game road
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: trip up to Winnipeg. They only play St. Louis next,
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: which isn't really that big of a deal. But I
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: think at the very least, this is a letdown spot.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: But Minnesota played yesterday with Volstead in net. And you
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: know what else is going to happen here. Minnesota's going
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: to have to switch goalies here, I would imagine. They've
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: not played a back-to-back yet. Volstead has played every game
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: for them in net so far. And while he's good...
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: I think that means Minnesota is going to have to
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: switch on the back-to-back to their backup goalie who hasn't
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: even played a game yet this year, which is going
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: to be Pickard, whoever you pronounce his name. He's an
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: older dude. He has experience, but he was.
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: He was one of Edmonton's goalies for a while. He
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: was behind Skinner. He's not that good, dude. So Volstead
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: to Pickard, that's a big downgrade in Minnesota's goaltending here.
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: So I think that's what's going to happen in this game.
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: So I think we're going to get Minnesota's lesser goalie here,
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: and that is also part of the reason why the
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: line is going to move a little bit here. But
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: I still don't think it's taking everything into account here.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: I like Winnipeg in this one. We're going to be
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: on Winnipeg. Minnesota's public, 63% of the tickets on them. Public,
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: not really buying Winnipeg starting. Neither am I, but I'm
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: buying the spot on Winnipeg here. It's about a pick
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: and price. It does still look too easy to play
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: Minnesota here. 56% of the cash on Winnipeg. We'll take
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: Winnipeg in that one. And that is my last play
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: that I have on the board here.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: Next game up on ESPN 830, the primetime ESPN game,
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: if you want to call it that, is probably the
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: best game on the board, which is Colorado and Dallas.
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: This is a huge game. I believe it's not a
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: revenge game because I think Dallas lost to Minnesota last
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: year in the playoffs, and then Colorado beat Minnesota, if
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: I remember correctly. Dallas is coming off that loss to
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: the Penguins, and they haven't played since then. So maybe
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: not a bad spot for Dallas here, although they're returning
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: home from a road trip. where it was Thursday, Saturday
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: for that road trip. They did go all the way
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: to Buffalo and then Pittsburgh. Now they're returning home from that.
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: But they're not going to overlook Colorado. And they're playing
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: Colorado again in Colorado tomorrow, by the way. So this
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: is a home-and-home, back-to-back situation here. Dallas on the return
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: home spot here. Coming off a loss to a Pittsburgh team,
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: it's not that good. I know it's a return home spot,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: but from a quick road trip, I don't see Dallas
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: really being distracted here. This is a massive game, massive
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: game against Colorado, so they shouldn't be distracted here. Colorado, though,
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: they should be in a bounce back spot because they
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: just lost to Toronto. Colorado might have got caught looking
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: ahead to this one. You know, I mean, Colorado's coming
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: up an easy win over Calgary. They switched back to
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: Blackwood in net, but that was Colorado's worst game of
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: the season by far. They got blown out by Toronto
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: at home. Just not a good game for Colorado at all.
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: I liked the over in that game. Should have gone
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: with it. But if you dig into this box score,
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: Colorado had more shots in the game, and the game
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: was pretty close overall. until late in the game. It
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: was a 4-3 Toronto lead late in the game. And
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: then Matthews had a power play goal and then an
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: empty net goal after that. So the game wasn't really
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: what it looked like. Colorado won the shot battle, won
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: the face-off battle. So they were a little bit better
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: than that. So this does look like a bounce-back spot
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: for Colorado here with however many days off they have.
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: I don't even know. It's at least one or two.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: Let me see. When was that game? That was Saturday,
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: so they have two days off. Going out on the
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: road for a Dallas game. Both teams should be focused here.
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: So this game could be an under. The total's pretty low, 6-5.5.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: Public looks like they're on the over, although the money
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: looks like it's somewhat on the over, too. But I
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: think this, you know, if I was going to do
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: anything in this game, if you forced me to, even
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: though I'm not a totals guy, the under kind of
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: seems appropriate here because Colorado's coming off a High-scoring game, man.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to really want to play an under. Oh, Colorado-Dallas,
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: these two good teams. Yeah, but part of the reason
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: why they're good is because these teams have the ability
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: to play defense, and they have decent goaltending. They can
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: slow the game down, you know what I mean? And
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: that might be the type of game we get here,
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: like a defensive slugfest, almost like a playoff type of
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: atmosphere in this game, on an ESPN game. So I
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: think the under makes some sense in this one. I
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: always worry about the empty net goals, though. Colorado looks public,
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: 87% of tickets on them, 95% of the cash on them.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: They flipped to the favorite. It opened pick and price, basically,
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: and Colorado's a slight favorite now, minus 115 or so. Yeah,
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know. The spot looks a little bit better
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: for Colorado to me because Dallas is returning home technically
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: from a road trip, even though it was a quicker
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: road trip. Colorado also coming off a more embarrassing loss.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: For sure. So I think Colorado may be the side
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: to lean towards there, but I think I prefer the under,
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: if anything, in that game. obviously not really my thing
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: though the totals Vegas at Nashville I mean this Nashville
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: team I don't know man they won for us earlier
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: in the year but I don't know if I want
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: anything to do with them they're returning home from a
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: road trip so right away that means I do not
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: want anything to do with them they were on the
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: road for a week And now they're returning home from
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: going up to Canada, eastern Canada, though. But still not
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: a good spot, really, for Nashville on the return home. Again,
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: it could be a distraction. You've got stuff to do
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: back at home. It will be Soros back in net
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: for them here. They may not overlook Vegas, though, because
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: Vegas has been really good. So not exactly a team
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: you're going to completely overlook. The team that won the
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: conference last year. Vegas is coming up a big game
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota where they lost last That's the type of
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: game you get up for. And when you lose that
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: game and you lose a four-game win streak in the process,
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: that could definitely hang you over. And it's a back-to-back
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: for Vegas because that happened yesterday. And they're now playing
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: a third game in four days all in different cities.
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: That's not easy. And the previous of the two on
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: Saturday was an overtime game against L.A. So Vegas, not
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: the greatest spot for them here, man. Nashville's in the
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: return home spot, but I think I would lean Nashville
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: if I was going to play this. It looks way
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: too easy to play Vegas. At about minus 120-something, they're
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: hugely public. 92% of the tickets, only 89% of the
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: cash on them only. So the market read is definitely
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: saying Nashville. Nobody wants them here, but I still don't
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: want them in a return home spot there. Bad spot
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: for both teams. Maybe an over in this one. Vegas,
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: they're going to have to switch goalies here. Who was
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: in net for them yesterday? I don't even know. Vegas
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: likely switching goaltenders, though. Let me see. It was Hart
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: in that yesterday, Carter Hart. He was primarily their goalie
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: through that playoff run last year. Aiden Hill is not
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: really that bad, though. They'll be switching to Hill in
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: this one. Hill, I think, was good enough to be
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: in the Four Nations or whatever. I think he played
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: for Canada, but whatever. Canada, I can't even talk. So yes,
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: Vegas will be switching to their lesser of the goalies,
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: if you want to call them that. I don't think
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: either of their goalies is that bad, though. While Nashville
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: will be switching back to Saros, their better goalie in
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: net here. So that's another indicator that maybe Nashville could
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: be a lean here. Vegas normally would be a bigger
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: favorite than this, but part of it is because of
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: the rest disadvantage they have. But again, it just looks
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: way too easy to play Vegas at a cheaper price
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: like that. But then again, yeah, I still don't want
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: Nashville on the return home spot, so the over could
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: make sense here, even though Saros is back in net Vegas,
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: somewhat downgrading their goalie here. Total's fairly high, 6-6.5. Money
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: seems to be indicating towards the over a little bit.
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: Looks like the public is actually playing the under. I
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: don't know if that really makes sense, but yeah, given
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: that both teams are in a bad spot, if you're
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: playing distracted, Nashville might be a little bit, or If
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: you are coming off a back-to-back and you might be
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: fatigued like Vegas, that might affect your defense, right? So
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: I think the over makes some sense in that game.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: And Nashville would be my lean on the side if
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: you force me to give you a lean. Toronto at Utah. Or,
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't know. Do I want to take
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: a break right now and then come back to the
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: rest of this? We have four more hockey games, baseball,
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: and college football. Yeah, I'll take a break. I'll be
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: right back, and then I'll talk about Toronto-Utah. This is
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: another game where the over probably makes sense. I think
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: both teams are in a bad spot. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even know
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: day at all, 0-4. I have not had a good season, man.
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: Look at this slump that I'm on. The slump continues.
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm gonna burn my
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going on
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: with the Bruins.
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: March 8th?
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: Um, Toronto at Utah, uh, as we already know, Toronto is, uh,
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: not in a good spot, uh, cause they're coming up
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: that huge win over the avalanche. Uh, they're staying in
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: elevation for this. So they're used to the high elevation now,
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: but still back to back games in high elevation like this,
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: not easy. And they started the road trip with an
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: over a shootout loss, excuse me, to Vegas. So they're
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: coming up to huge games really against Vegas and Colorado
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: where they stepped up their effort. Um, But Brofsky and
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: Nett for both of them. I don't know if they're
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: going to switch back to Stolarz here or not, although
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: they're 2-0 in his games, but he faced easy opponents.
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: We'll see what they do here as far as that's concerned.
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: So this looks pretty bad, though, for Toronto. Although normally
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: I think they'd get up for Utah, but Coming off
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: these two big games, maybe not. And then Toronto does
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: have to play Buffalo next when they return home, which
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: they might put some weight into that because Buffalo, I believe,
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: is in their division, if I'm not mistaken. No, Buffalo's
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: in the Bruins division. I forget who's in whose division
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: at this point. But Buffalo was a divisional winner last year,
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: at least. Utah, though, they're in an awful spot. Utah's
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: returning home from a long road trip. This is the
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: longest road trip return spot that we have here. Utah,
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: they've been on the road since October 3rd. They played
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: five road games in a row, finished the road trip
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: with a nice win over Buffalo. Now they're back home
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: to face an out-of-conference opponent, Toronto. And up next, they
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: got to swing right back out on the road and
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: play Edmonton. That's a huge game. Edmonton, one of the
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: better teams in the conference. So normally, this is a
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: complete fade spot that Utah is in. Really, really bad spot.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: And in fact, I actually think it's probably worse than
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: the spot Toronto's in because Toronto is at least staying
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: kind of in the same area out there. Still a
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: letdown spot for Toronto, though, so I'm not going to
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: deal with this game. I'm not going to play either
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: side here. The money is indicating on Toronto. I mean,
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: that's just how bad that spot is for Utah to
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: a pretty decent extent, I would say. That's probably why
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: the money's coming in on Toronto. That and, I guess,
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: the price being a bit high on Utah, minus 160-something here.
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: 56% of tickets on Utah, 79% of the cash on Toronto.
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: I think this is another game where I'd probably look
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: towards the over. It's another high total. It's six and
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: a half, man. This is maybe the highest total out there,
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: given what the juice looks like. And I think it's
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: high for a reason. Again, when you get a team
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: that's in a distracted spot, possible fatigue spot, possible letdown spot,
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, that could apply to both these teams here
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: in a way. Usually, I think it impacts the defense
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: more than the offense. So, yeah, this game, to me,
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: I would play the over if I was going to
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: play that game. It looks public, though, although maybe some
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: of the money also on the over there. I don't
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: know if the public is really getting heavily involved in
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: that game, though. Those are my thoughts on that one.
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: Calgary at Anaheim. Anaheim, huge favorite here. Calgary, bad team.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: Anaheim just beat Calgary in Calgary, and it was a
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: close game statistically, though, I'm pretty sure. So that game
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: wasn't really exactly what it looked like on the scoreboard.
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: A 4-2 win for Anaheim. I'm pretty sure it was
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: kind of a close game. Let me see. Yeah, it
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: was actually very close statistically, and then Anaheim put in
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: a shorthanded goal. It was tied in the third period
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: until that shorthanded goal, and then Anaheim scored again close
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: to the end. Not an empty netter, but whatever. Anaheim
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: used Huso in net for the first time. They'll be
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: back using Dostal in this one. He is their better goalie,
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: but still... This is a quick road reversal, revenge angle,
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: or whatever you want to call it, right, where it
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: was kind of a misleading-looking result. Calgary probably has some
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: things to fix after that game. They get to go
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: out on the road and deal Anaheim a potential loss
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: just to get Anaheim back for Anaheim doing it to them,
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: that type of thing. And Anaheim just might have nothing
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: to fix, you know what I mean? I'm not sure
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: that Anaheim's necessarily going to look ahead to Boston. Next,
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: although the Bruins are off to a decent start, at
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: least record-wise this season, even though I don't think they're
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: that good, which I'm going to talk about soon because
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: that's one of the games left that I have to
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: talk about. Still, I mean, these quick... revenge spots like
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: this or whatever you want to call it. It's more
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: of a zigzag spot really where maybe one of the results,
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: maybe the first result looked misleading, but whatever. And if so,
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: I think that helps the case for backing the team
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: that lost in that game, right? So I think Calgary
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: would be the right side to look at in this one.
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: I know it's ugly. They haven't been good. They haven't
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: won a game yet, in fact. So this would add
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: to the, you know me, I like these ugly sides.
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? This one, I don't think
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: I'm going to do, but Calgary, yeah, you know, they're
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip with a couple days off at least,
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: both teams have a couple days off and Anaheim's returning home.
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: From Calgary, Calgary's starting a road trip, and I prefer
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: the road trip start more because that usually tends to
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: be a focus spot. Calgary, they'll show up with some
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: effort at least, man, because they've got to try to
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: get a win at least. Anaheim, 93% of tickets, 78%
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Anaheim, so the public on Anaheim,
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: it looks like, with less of the money on them.
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: They already dropped from minus 213 all the way down
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: to about a minus 180 something price here. You could
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: take Calgary on the puck line, but I think at
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: this price you have to kind of do a split
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: bet and make it like a plus one puck line
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: type of situation. But I think that's probably what I
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: would do. I would lean Calgary and make like a
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: plus one puck line out of it there. Doesn't make
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: the cut for me, though. Then we have Edmonton at LA.
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: This is the game I was talking about where you
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: have one team that hasn't lost yet, Edmonton. Or excuse me,
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: they have one overtime loss, excuse me. Edmonton, no losses
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: on the road. But yeah, Edmonton, no regulation losses. The
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: Kings have zero wins, although they have two overtime losses.
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: But I think this is a situation where, you know,
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: you have one team that has won almost every game,
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: and then another team that has lost every game.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: It looks.
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: I think it's going to look way too easy to
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: play Edmonton in this one, man. I think the Kings
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: are going to be more competitive than what their record
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: would suggest. Edmonton has had a pretty easy schedule so far,
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: so nothing they've done is that impressive so far, and
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: I'm not sold on Jari and Levi, however you pronounce
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: his name. Not sold on this goaltending tandem of Edmontons here,
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: not that I ever am. They've looked good so far,
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: but they lost to Vancouver. That's not good. And then
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: they beat Vancouver, beat Seattle. They beat Anaheim at San Jose,
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: so those are better wins than what they had prior
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: to that, but I'm still not that impressed by this.
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: They're finishing up a road trip here that they've already won. Yeah,
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: they're staying in California for this, but still, I think
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: the Kings would be the way to lean here. The
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: problem is the Kings are coming up a big game
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: against Vegas. They always get up for a game against Vegas,
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: and they took Vegas into overtime. In Vegas... So I
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: don't really love the Kings... Coming off a game like that...
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: Because that was a huge effort... And now they have
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: to put in another huge effort here... I'm just going
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: to stay away from it... But the Kings are way
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: more battle tested... Than Edmonton is... I mean yeah they've
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: lost every game... But look at these games... They lost
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: to Colorado... They took San Jose into overtime... Both teams
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: have played San Jose... They lost to Florida by one...
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: And then they took Vegas into overtime... I mean... They
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: played three of the best teams in the league already... Colorado, Florida, Vegas...
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: Kings have had a way more difficult schedule than Edmonton
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: so far, so that's definitely factoring into this a little bit.
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: I would play the Kings if I was going to
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: play this, even though I know they were really bad
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: at home last year, and they haven't won yet at home,
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: although I believe... I'm pretty sure... Hold on, let me look.
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: I think both of their overtime losses came at home,
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: although I might be wrong. Let me see. I'm looking
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: at Anaheim. Whoops, I wanted to look at LA. The
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: team that's nearest to them geographically... Hang on. Um.
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: No, I'm wrong. Both their overtime losses were actually on
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: the road. They've only played one home game, actually, the Kings,
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: and that was the 2-1 Florida loss. So that wasn't
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: a bad result either. So, yeah, Anaheim, we don't know
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: exactly what they are at home yet this year, but
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: that's not a bad result for them at home. So, yeah,
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: I'd play the Kings if I was going to play this.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: Edmonton looks seriously public, 90% of the tickets, 91% of
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. And look at the price. It
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: looks way too cheap. on Edmonton at minus 130. Looks way, way,
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: way too easy to play Edmonton here. So, yeah, I
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: think the Kings are definitely the right side there. I
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: would lean that way in that game. Don't quite want
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: to do it, though. Let me see it. I mean,
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: the over is taking money there too. Six, six and
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: a half. I mean, never necessarily a bad idea to
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: look towards an over in an Edmonton game because they
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: score a ton and they don't defend well and they
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: don't have good goaltending. But in that game, maybe that's
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: the case because they might be overlooking LA and LA
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: is coming off a tough game. So the over might
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: make some sense there. Last game, like I said, is Boston.
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: I haven't talked about them yet. Boston at San Jose
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: for a late, late game. 11 p.m. This is on ESPN.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: Right away, I don't like the spot for Boston because
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: they're going all the way out west for a late,
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: late game, 11 p.m. So based on their biological clocks,
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: because they're traveling from the eastern time zone here, they're
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: going to be playing this game at like past 1 a.m.
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: their time. So that's not good. I never think that's
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: a good thing. So I don't like that for the Bruins,
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: even though they have a couple of days off. Maybe
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: they went out there a little bit early to adjust
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: to it. I still don't like that. Usually I like
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: the first game of a road trip because I think
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: it's a focused spot, but not in a case like
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: this where they're having to travel and adjust to the
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: times like this. Again, those late-night games biologically really bad.
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: Bruins coming off two big wins. Well, not big wins,
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: but blowout wins against Utah and Philly at home where
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: the Bruins outscored them 11-2 combined. Yeah, that doesn't seem
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: good to me. I don't know if the Bruins are
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: going to use Swayman again in net or not here.
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: If they don't use him, they'd be using DiPietro. Yeah,
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: he wasn't good. The Bruins only have two losses on
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: the season so far, and one of them was his game.
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: We'll see what the Bruins do with their goaltending. Maybe
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: the Bruins are better than we thought they would be
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: just like last year coming into the season. It seems
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: like the Bruins always get some real... crap like as
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: far as like disrespect in the market maybe the Bruins
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: are better than that but I'm still not sold on
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: the Bruins actually being that good um San Jose I
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: liked San Jose coming into the season I thought there
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: would be an improved team I still think that um
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: You look at their resume here. I know they've had
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: three overtime wins, but their only losses are to Dallas
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: and Edmonton. I mean, those are not bad losses, even
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: though they didn't exactly play well in those games. But
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: that's not that bad. They're staying at home here off
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: that loss to Edmonton. One thing you have to look
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: at is, was that game close, though? And the answer is,
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: not really. They were down 3-0 late in the game.
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: They scored up. Celebrini scored late in a game that
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: didn't really... You know, in a situation where it didn't
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: really matter at that point. But statistically, San Jose did
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: play pretty well. They out-physicaled Edmonton, at least. And the
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: shots were close. But I think that just means San
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: Jose played better than what the final score... Makes it
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: look like they're in the game. Wasn't close. So San
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Jose shouldn't really be hung over or anything here. So
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: I like San Jose in this one. Boston is a
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: public side, 86% of tickets, 95% of the cash on them.
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: Looks like they're getting some of the money too, but
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: I don't know about that. Bruins are favored. So the
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: odds makers are actually telling you the Bruins are the
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: better team now. Like that didn't seem, that doesn't seem
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: to jive with what the, um, the preseason odds made
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: it look, you know, the preseason odds looked like where
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: the preseason odds had the Bruins is one of the
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: worst teams in the Eastern conference. And San Jose was
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: like one of the top several teams in the Western conference.
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: So it's that strange to see the Bruins favorite here.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: I don't quite understand why that's the case. I think
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: there's some line value here on San Jose. Probably. I'm
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: not convinced the Bruins are even the better team there.
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: So that's probably the way I would look there. I
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: would look towards San Jose in that one. All right,
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: hold on. Major League Baseball, got to bring this back up.
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know how I lost this tab. So switching
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: over to baseball here, but yeah, I would take San
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: Jose as the slight underdog in that game. We have
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: one baseball game here as the NLCS is already two
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: games in, and they're going to be moving over to LA,
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: and they resume tomorrow. The ALCS will continue after Cleveland
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: had that– scoring barrage in the late innings of that
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: game and wound up winning the game 7-3 after they
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: were down 2-0 in the 6th or 7th inning. I
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: think Tampa Bay left Rasmussen in, and he was really good,
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: but I think he tired out a little bit, and
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: they left him in a little bit too long. Cleveland
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: got two solo home runs off him, and then it
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: was a 2-2 game. Cleveland took the lead, then they
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: handed one back to Tampa Bay with a solo shot from...
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: Mullins I think that was in the I believe that
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: was in the 8th inning and then Cleveland poured it
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: on in the 9th inning and scored 3 insurance runs
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: but Cleveland still wound up bringing their closer in at
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: the end I'm pretty sure Smith so Cleveland did use
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: their closer Tampa Bay did not use their closer in
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: the game yesterday I don't believe Baker although both bullpens
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: saw some usage so As far as maybe the under
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: is concerned in this game, I'm not so sure about that.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Maybe a first five under might make some sense in
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: this game. This is going to be on TBS True TV.
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: Everybody expected Tampa Bay to win this series. Cleveland's offense
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: is not good, but I told you I thought Cleveland
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: had a chance here because I think their pitching is
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: better than Tampa Bay's. I think generally Cleveland has the
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: better bullpen, but they used all their better relievers yesterday.
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: Tampa saved some of theirs, so that might even out
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: the bullpen a little bit for Tampa. Tampa definitely has
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: the better offense, and Tampa does have the more experienced
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: starter in this game, even if maybe he's not the
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: better one. He's more experienced. Cleveland is going with Parker Messick.
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: He had a really good season, 2.56 ERA. 1.06 whip.
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: He was also better on the road. 2.22 road ERA.
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: But in the playoffs, he has not been good. He
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: had two outings against the White Sox. Didn't last long
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: in either of them. He's only thrown six and two-thirds innings.
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: He has six walks over that span, which is way
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: too many walks. Although he also has 11 strikeouts. That's
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: a good number. That means he is fooling hitters. But
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: he's also been shaky. He's been wild. And he has
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: a 5.4 ERA. with that stretch along four earned runs.
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: So that's not really that good. So Messick has definitely
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: not been at his best in the playoffs. But I
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: think as he gets this experience, you're going to see
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: him get better in these postseason games. Will it happen here?
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure, man. I'm really not. He does have
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: good numbers against Tampa in general in a big sample.
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: 73 at-bats, 19 strikeouts, only two walks. And they're both
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: Yandy Diaz. You would hope the walks wouldn't be that
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: much of a concern with him. but they have been
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs so far. He's held Tampa Bay to
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: a 205 batting average of 460 OPS. Those are good numbers.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: So it seems like Messick should find a way to
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: turn this around and do better here. But again, he
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: doesn't have the experience, and Freddy Peralta does. Peralta's pitching
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: for Tampa Bay. This is why they got him, man.
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: He hasn't had the best season. He was bad when
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: he was with the Mets, but he has been better
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: with Tampa Bay. He's got a 4.42 ERA overall, 1.33 whip.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: I get that that's not that good, and But again,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: he's been better with Tampa and he's been better as
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: a home pitcher as well. 3.53 home area combined with
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: the Mets and Tampa. You look at what he did
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: with Tampa. He was shaky at first when they got him,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: but he settled way down. And in the month of September,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: he put up a. 96 ERA. So he was really
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: good in September. And, in fact, Tampa Bay has now
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: won seven starts in a row that he's made, including
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: the one in the divisional series against the Yankees, although
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 4: he didn't last that long in that game. But he
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: was pretty good. He only allowed one run, and they
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: took him out only 66 pitches in. I'm not exactly
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: sure why. I don't know what's up with these managers
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: pulling their starters down. earlier than expected. I know Tampa Bay,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: they like to use their bullpen in a certain way.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: They're a team that goes with bullpen games and stuff
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: like that. It's a combined effort from them. So that's
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: some of the reasons, but it was still surprising. 66
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: pitches in from a veteran like Peralta, and we know
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: Peralta's been good in his career in the playoffs. I'm
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: pretty sure he's been good in his career in the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: playoffs with Milwaukee, but whatever. He does have good numbers
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: against this weak Cleveland offense. They have 38 at-bats against him.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: They have no extra base hits against him. A 184 average,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: 463 OPS, 10 strikeouts, five walks is not that good.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: Although all five of them are from Lowe and Ramirez.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: So maybe he just kind of pitches around those guys. Yeah,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, based on the pitching, man, I still think
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: maybe a first five under makes some sense here. The
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: full game total is pretty low. six and a half, seven. Uh,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: if you can find that key number seven, I'm not
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: sure I would necessarily disagree with playing the full game under, uh,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: we have 67% of tickets on the over 66% of
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. Uh, so the money seems
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: to be kind of indicating towards the under here. And
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: yesterday's game went over and it was pretty misleading. Cause again,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: that was a two nothing game, Tampa Bay until like
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: the top of the sixth inning or something like that.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: So that was a little bit misleading. Um, The fact
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: that the game went way over. It was all late scoring.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: But then again, the bullpens are a little bit unrested
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: coming into this game. So I don't love that. So maybe...
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: first five under three and a half and just bank
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: on both starting pitchers to do well. That might be
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: one move that you could do here. Uh, the money
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: seems to be most strongly indicating on Tampa Bay here though,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: to bounce back here. We know Tampa Bay is a
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: good home team. And I think the main reason for
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: backing Tampa here is just the experience factor. And the
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: fact that the bullpen rest situation, and they kind of
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: favors them a little bit, but I said the same
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: thing about the Dodgers yesterday and they still didn't get
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: it done. Um, 52% of tickets, 92% of the cash
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: on Tampa Bay. They're down 0-1, but Tampa Bay, unlike
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers, Tampa Bay is at home, and they really
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: cannot necessarily afford to fall behind 0-2 because Tampa Bay
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: is much better at home than they are on the road.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: If they're 0-2 after these home games, and then they
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: still have to face Gavin Williams in Cleveland, Tampa Bay
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: is not going to win this series. If they lose
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: this game, they're done, I think. So I don't think
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are done. because I know people think that,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: but the Dodgers, as I said at the top of
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: the show, the Dodgers are going to have a huge
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: pitching edge in these next two games, assuming that it's
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: going to be Gasser and May for Milwaukee. The Dodgers,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: any pitcher that the Dodgers put out there is going
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: to have an advantage against those two guys. So the
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: Dodgers could quite easily even that series back up.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: Anyway.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: Although if the Dodgers go down 0-3, I'll tell you
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: that I think they're doomed. But until then, I won't
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: say that. With Tampa Bay, if they go down 0-2,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're coming back. So we will see. But, yes,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: I'll lean Tampa Bay here. I'll lean with the playoff
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: experienced pitcher here with Peralta. This is why Tampa Bay
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: picked him up, man. This is the reason because they
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: knew they were going to be a playoff team. They
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: wanted this guy with playoff pedigree. Probably a good trade
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: for Tampa Bay. We'll see. I mean, again, this is
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: why they got him. So he's going to have to
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: do it for them. So that's what we got there.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: And we have two college football games. It's Tuesday. College
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: football started last week. I believe it's all Conference USA
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: shit for now. It'll be MAAC action, eventually MAACtion. But
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: we have Conference USA here. Delaware at Middle Tennessee on
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: CBS Sports at 7 p.m. Delaware, they're the better team.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: They're favored on the road, so the Ozburgers are telling
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: you they're the better team. One thing to know about
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: Delaware is... You've got to know what their situation is
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: with Minicucci. I call him the tight pussy, Minicucci. I
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: know I've made that joke too many times over the
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: last couple of years. He's their starting quarterback, but he
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: got hurt in their game against Virginia. And then last week,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: even though I forgot to mention it, I leaned Delaware
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: last week, and that was bad. They did not come
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: anywhere close, really, to Liberty. That was the injured player
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: theory spot for Delaware, though. Minacucci was out in that game,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: so that was a game where you'd think Delaware would
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: step up their game. They did not do that. They
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: got blown out on a Friday night primetime game that
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: a lot of people were watching against Liberty, and it
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: was not even, like, the final score, 30-14, it wasn't
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: even that. Like, Liberty was winning that game 30-0 in
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: the fourth quarter. However... If you dive into the box score, though,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: it was actually closer statistically. So even though Delaware was
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: down 30-0 in the garbage time scored, Delaware actually played better,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: even with their backup quarterback. They actually played better in
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: that game than it looks. They had a couple of
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: bad turnovers, and the game was statistically closer than it looks.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: So there are some negatives and some positives for Delaware here. Now,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: we have to know if Minicucci is going to come
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: back in this game. If he is, that makes me
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: like Delaware less than To be honest, because again, with
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: the starting quarterback coming back, you've got to work him
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: back in. The line might move a little bit too
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: far towards that team. So it's the reverse injured player spot, basically,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: where you don't really get as much value, if any,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: on that team. And the team might get a little
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: bit complacent. But with Delaware having lost their last two games,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: I think they're less likely to get complacent. Because when
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: you're coming off two blowouts, even if Minacucci's coming back,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: they'll probably still be focused here. However... I think Middle
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: Tennessee might be, you know, I don't think they're good,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: but maybe they're getting a little bit overlooked here. They're
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 4: coming off a really gross 55-0 loss to Kansas. Although Kansas,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, we know they're a Big 12 team at least,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: so maybe that's not that shameful. But when you take
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: a loss like that to anybody, a lot of times
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: you will bounce back. Middle Tennessee has one fewer day
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: of rest. They played on Saturday the 3rd. But still,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: you're looking at teams that both have a lot of
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: rest here. Both teams are coming into this game on
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: a two-game losing streak. So I'm expecting both teams to
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: show up focused here. I think you're also looking at
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: teams where I think Middle Tennessee probably is... I would
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: imagine Middle Tennessee is somewhat the better defensive team, but
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: they don't have a good offense, I think, is really
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: what's going on here. Delaware's got 56% of tickets, 70%
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them. So the money seems to
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: kind of be indicating towards Delaware, but they did drop
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: from a 2.5 opener down to 1, 1.5. To me,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: I think it looks too easy to play Delaware, though.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I think I might slightly lean towards
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: middle Tennessee here, but not a strong opinion for me.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: The money also backing the under a little bit here.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: Totals hovering right around that key number of 47 right now, 47.5.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: So if you do like the under, I think you
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: should try to get the 47.5 there, which I think
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: you can right now. I mean, the under might make sense.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: It looks like it might be an ugly offensive game here,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: so maybe. If Minicucci is back for Delaware, that will
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: help their passing attack, but he might take a little
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: while to get going again, although he looked pretty good
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: in some games last year, but we will see. That's
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: definitely a game I do not want to touch, though.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: And then we have FIU and Jacksonville State as the
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: other game here. This is an interesting one. This one's
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: on ESPNU. FIU has been quite good defensively, but their
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: offense is terrible. So they play a lot of low-scoring games.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: So again, this might be another under type of game here.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: FIU coming off looking pretty good in primetime, beating New
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: Mexico State. But if you dive into that box score,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: New Mexico State actually outgained FIU in the game. FIU
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: couldn't get any offense going in that game, although their
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: offense actually was a little bit better. The first few weeks, Cole,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: their quarterback, threw for a bunch more yards. Last two games,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: their offense has been pitiful. One against LIU, which is
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: really kind of damning if they don't even put up
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: offense against that team, an FCS team. But last week,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: at least what you could say is, well, New Mexico
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: State's at least a pretty good defense, I think. So
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: maybe that came into play there. But New Mexico State
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: also has a kind of weak offense, and they turned
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: the ball over multiple times in that game. So that
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: game was a little bit misleading. Even though I liked
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: FIU to get the job done there, they did. They
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: covered their defense. was really good they won 22-3 that
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: was last Wednesday when we saw them do that so
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: people saw that it was a prime time game for
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: FIU yeah it was a little bit misleading though again
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: because New Mexico State had a bunch of turnovers in
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: the game and they actually out gained FIU in the
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: game But the fact remains that FIU does have a
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: good defense, though. They're not playing at home here, though.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: And like I say, with these primetime isolated games like this,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: the home team usually gets a little bit of a bump.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: There's usually a little bit more of an effort there
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: and more energy for the home team because they know
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: that they get this chance to play in their own
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: stadium on primetime, so they get up for a little
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: bit more. In this game, though, I think I like
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: the road team here. I think I actually like FIU,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: even though that was a little bit of a misleading
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: result there. I like their defense here. They have the
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: better defense, and they're going to be getting points against
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State's the better team. There's no doubt
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: about that. But I think FIU, because their defense is
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: good enough, FIU's flying under the radar. Whereas Jacksonville State,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: people are going to kind of like their offense with Creel.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: They had him last year, too. He's playing pretty well,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: but Jacksonville State's coming off a pretty big game. They
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: played in primetime on Wednesday last week, too. They won
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 4: at Kennesaw State, and that was a big game for
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: Jacksonville State. It was a close game back and forth,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: and it was a revenge game for Jacksonville State because
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: they lost the conference championship to Kennesaw. last year, and
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: it didn't matter that much because the team wasn't, you know,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: neither team was going to make the playoffs or anything
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: like that. You know, it was just, you get into
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: a better bowl game, basically, by winning that game, but
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: it's still, you know, bragging rights. You still get the
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: banner for winning the conference, whatever, so that was still
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: a big game. Jacksonville State got to go into Kennesaw
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: and pull off the upset there, and it was dramatic.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: It was a close game at the end. Each team
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: was scoring back and forth at the end, and Jacksonville
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: State had the ball. I think they pretty much had
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: the ball last, and they won on a like last
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: second field goal, if I'm not mistaken. Well, it was
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: with 52 seconds left. But yeah, so it was just
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: back and forth, field goal, field goal, field goal at
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: the end. Jacksonville State did get a little bit out
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: gained in the game. It was a close game statistically though,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: so it wasn't really a misleading final or anything. Close
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: game on the scoreboard, close game statistically. Now, yeah, they're
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: going to be back home and usually teams do get
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: up for these home games like this. and this is
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: their first one at home this year, but I don't know.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: I kind of like FIU in this one. I like
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: the better defense getting the points here. The money's coming
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: in a Jacksonville state. I don't really agree with it.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: And I think there might be a little bit of
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: a letdown component here. Cause that was a big win
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: for Jacksonville state against Kennesaw, man. It was still revenge. Um,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: so yeah, I think FIU might be a little bit
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: of the undervalued commodity here. Um, You could still probably
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: get three on this with FIU. It looks like it's
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: three or two and a half. It's gone down from
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: three and a half, but I would at least try
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: to get three with FIU if I was going to
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: do it. But we see 51% of tickets on FIU,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: 62% of the cash on Jacksonville State. So the money
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: kind of backing Jacksonville State here. I don't happen to
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: agree with that one, though. I do agree with the
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: under in both games, though. The money coming in heavily
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: on the under in this one. 74% of tickets on
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: the over, 91% of the cash on the under. total's
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: really low it's gone down from 45 and a half
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: to 43 and a half and not as much leeway
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: there you've lost a bit of value on the under
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: but to me it still seems like maybe an under
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: type of game but i think that helps the case
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: for the underdog right if i use a defensive underdog
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: and defensive underdogs basically they're always correlated with the game
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: going under like you want this to be an ugly
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: game low scoring close game where that underdog has a
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: better chance to uh cover the game and hang around
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: in the game. You know what I mean? That's what
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: FIU is going to need to do because Jacksonville state
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: has the better offense, but FIU is the better defense.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: So that's what we got going on in these two
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: games here. Those games are not games I want to touch.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: That's it for the show. We have a lot of
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: hockey today. We have three hockey plays, the hockey triple play.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: We're on the flyers money line. We're on the black
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: Hawks money line. Although I might shift to being a
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: pussy and making this a plus one, um, puck line,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: you know, split bet type of thing. I'll put it
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: in the description if I change it. And Winnipeg on
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: the money line as well. Those are the three plays.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here. You get notified when I
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: go live. Listen on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Let's boost
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: those numbers again everywhere. Covered in you because my ukulele
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: channel on YouTube. You can check that out. I should
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: lower this camera a little bit so you can see
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: this Mizorowski jersey, man. What's going on? I don't know.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: I adjust the camera, and sometimes it doesn't quite adjust
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: to where I want it. I don't know. It's tilted
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: on the top of my monitor a little bit. Yeah, whatever.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: It's the end of the show anyway, but yes, this
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 4: is the Brewers. There you go. I'm rooting against the
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: Dodgers for sure. What else do I have to say here?
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: Covered in Uke, my ukulele channel on YouTube. I've got
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: to get that up to date. I have one cover
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: I haven't put up there yet. I have to update
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: the Spotify feed for the Patreons. Patreon.com slash LearnToToad. You
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: can get a Spotify Uke feed, requests, etc. I apologize
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: for not being active on there. Just trying to get
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: as many income streams as possible, and it's all slow
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: going here.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: And we have, yeah, so patreon.com slash learn to tote.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: You can find me there. And Losercast tonight, we'll have
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: a new episode. I got to pick a loser. I
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: need a loser. I got to pick one. I don't
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: know who I'm going to pick, but we'll find something.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it. I appreciate it, people.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 5: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: Not tonight.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 5: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: now Hold on, hold on You're still
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: Here now guitar solo