Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Markets, News, and Fertilizer Update

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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Markets, News, and Fertilizer Update · AG Bull

• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, not a lot of fireworks in the grains today.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Just kind of Tuesday'd along, you might say.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: The livestock's were under some pressure.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: There's been a last minute change in the roster to this afternoon's program, and that's that's fine.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's okay by me.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Still plenty to talk about.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull in Kansas City, USA, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: So glad that you decided to join me on this Tuesday.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: It's September 15, 2026.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: As I said earlier, not, you know, nothing crazy in the markets, a good day in the soybeans.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get to all of that.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: And I've got a few news stories that I definitely want to bring to your attention.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: First of all, I ooh, I gotta do this.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta do this.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy said I got to do a shout-out.
• 1:12
  unknown: Come on.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: Let's crank that just a little bit.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: And uh I gotta shout out the North Dakota Corn Growers.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: Shout out to North Dakota Corn Growers, y'all.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Come on.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: Hope you're doing well up there in Northe D.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along for the ride.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: What's up, everybody?
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: How are you doing?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Good to see you.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, like I said, my guest today was unexpectedly held up.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I'll just get you informed quick and cut you loose.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Not not not a super long show today.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody wants to hear me talk for an hour.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, maybe you do.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: Just listen to this show like three or four times, and then maybe it'll all even out to be about an hour long.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to Brazil.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: I pulled this from Weesmeyer's commentary this morning.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Brazil's soybean and corn supplies could tighten in 26-27.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: That despite larger harvests, according to Konabi's agricultural outlook released today.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: Some people say Konab.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: I used to say Konab, and someone corrected me and says no, it's actually Konabi.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what to do with that information.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think what I'm going to do is just alternate them.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: So this last one was a Konabi, and you know, we'll we'll see if the word comes up again.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, South American crop egg folks there.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Projections from that organization show demand drawing down inventories, reducing the cushion against production setbacks.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: Now we've got El Nino coming up, the super El Nino.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: We talked last week with our meteorologist friend Eric Snodgrass, who talked about the ripples of El Nino kind of emanating out from the equator and could definitely have some impacts on South America.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: So if if they're having demand pulling inventories downward, as Wiesmeyer said, the cushion there gets a little thin.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Like my brake pads right now.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: The Jeeps in the shop, I got to get new new brake pads.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: A rear uh roundy spinny thingy on one of the wheels and uh also some brake pads.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean production projected, Wiesmeyer continues, at 181.6 million metric tons, up less than 1%.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: Acreage increases 1.4%.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: That's the slowest acreage expansion in 20 years in Brazil, factoring in an export projection of 118 million metric tons and crushing at 63.7 million metric tons, ending stocks in Brazil forecast to fall 32.1% year on year.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: So that they being some significant competition for the U.S.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: It could be price supportive here.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: We spoke yesterday with Chris Winward about, you know, the the funds still seem to be interested in the long side here.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: What happens during harvest is unknown, but Winward likes our chances uh at least to hold through through harvest.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I asked him specifically if so so we had the reports on Friday, dipped down in the November beans below 13 yesterday, Monday.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: We popped back up to like 1304 and three quarters, I believe it was.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I asked him, is this can we take this as a rejection of a 12 handle?
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Windward said yes.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't even hesitate.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't even hesitate.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: I'll get to the settlements in just a moment.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I want to I want to get to this note on fertilizer.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: I know you probably you maybe don't want to hear this.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you want to hear this or not.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: I'll update you on the latest retail fertilizer prices when they drop when that data refreshes.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: But no secret, prices are getting out of hand and have been for a while.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: Recent reports suggest high inputs prices are not likely to come down anytime soon.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: I bring this up so that you so that you're at least aware of it and can get your heads around maybe what you what you need to do.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: There's a suggestion here.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Let me let me continue here.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Vice president of sales and marketing for phospholutions, Craig Dick says the problem needs to be addressed.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: Here's a quote.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: For the past few years, there has been major export restrictions from some of the large producing countries like China and Russia.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then recently, with the disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Horror News, sulfur prices have been at an all-time high.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: And sulfur is a key component of making phosphoric acid.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: So the challenge is even if we improve the availability of fertilizer, the markets just don't reset overnight.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to take some time to rebuild supplies and for the sulfur and nitrogen prices to come down.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Recently, we did temporarily suspend duties on Moroccan phosphate, but the challenge is it doesn't create more fertilizer.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: We still have to import it into the U.S.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: And the global markets are higher.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: is one of the lowest priced markets globally.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Let that soak in a little bit.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's not just a U.S.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: problem, it's a global problem.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: He continued highlighting the length of time and considerable expense involved in opening new production capacity in the United States and suggested seeking greater efficiencies when applying phosphates.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: Greater efficiency, I would tend to agree, is going to be the key in this high price environment to just maximize every single penny, every half cent, every nickel that you have to spend needs to be maximized.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: And anything extra.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you talk about the cushion being narrowed in in Brazil.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: We're dealing with a narrow production cushion here as well on the financing side.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: So efficiency is a great idea.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what he said about, and he's he he was talking mostly about the phosphate side.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: What he said about production is not wrong.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: A while back I covered for uh for another company, I covered the opening of a fertilizer plant from the point of, hey, I think we might we might build a fertilizer plant in Iowa to we're breaking ground.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: The governor's gonna be there, the fertilizer plant is built.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: $1.2 billion to get a nitrogen plant going.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: And that's that's fine.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: You know how inflation has gone.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's you're not gonna get the you're not gonna get it done for$1.2 billion anymore.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Certainly, the regulatory environment is has maybe eased just a little bit with the change of administration.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: That being said, you've still got all of the costs, the expense, the labor, the time to get that put together.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: And then on the phosphate side, oh, by the way, you gotta mine phosphate out of the ground.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: And it's now you're looking for places to to dig phosphate out of the ground, it's a whole nother thing.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: So let's let's not put too many eggs in the let's increase domestic production basket because it it takes forever.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: It absolutely takes takes years to get that done from hey, we should do this, hey, we've we've got the money, to hey, we're breaking ground, to, oh, now there's enough phosphate around that that it's going to pressure prices.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: It'll take a while.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: At a Friday gathering in Iowa, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden told farmers that USDA is committed to addressing concerns about fertilizer pricing and enforcing, here we go, antitrust laws saying, quote, we are working to bring actions down the pike that will seek to shine a light on what's been going on in the fertilizer market.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: This, as attendees from 13 states, I believe, are recall reading, this as attendees accused major fertilizer companies of raking in record profits for shareholders over the past five years.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just gonna let that lie where it is.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: As I said, when when I get some fresh retail fertilizer data, I absolutely will share it with you with charts.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: Visuals, in case you're a you're a visual, visual learner like I am.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's get on to the crop progress report.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I think I've got a slide for that over there if Roberto wants to click the button.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you, sir.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Muchas gracias.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: Crop progress report, corn maturity continues to run ahead of year ago and the five-year average.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: Corn rated good to excellent rows one point from last week.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: Remains 10 points below the same week last year.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: However, harvest is ahead of schedule, although we're we're just at 8% complete, but uh ahead of schedule, which is normally, what is it usually?
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the five-year average is six percent.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: Last year we were at seven percent.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: Last week we were at five percent.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we we increased by three percent on corn harvest.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: As with corn, soybean maturity is ahead of schedule, and condition ratings are well behind the same week last year.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean harvest was put at six percent complete, slightly ahead of historical averages.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: Where's our condition rating here?
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: Here we go.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the five-year average for soybeans rated good to excellent is fifty-eight percent.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: That's what we're at in this most recent report.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: Unchanged from last week, also at 58%, obviously, but down from last year, which was at 63%.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: So not in horrible, horrible condition on soybeans, but we are 6% harvested, which is just ahead of the five-year average of 5% harvested as of this date.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: Winter wheat seedings, slow to start as spring wheat harvest is nearly complete, in line with historical averages.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: Cotton conditions, yeah, rough shape there, but maturity is ahead of schedule, and harvest is on track with the historical averages.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the tail of the ticker.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: Not a lot of fireworks, as I said from the very beginning.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: Corn and KC wheat futures were slightly lower as beans and Chicago wheat firmed early in the session.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: This has cattle futures reversed from yesterday's gains, and lean hogs were also mostly lower.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: Still pretty quiet in the grains, rounding into lunch.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: Corn's still off a penny in change, soybeans were up around a dime, and both Chicago and KC Wheat were unchanged to fractionally higher.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: I would call it mostly higher if I'm recalling.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, livestock futures mildly extended early losses.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Now I'm gonna check my plus 500 quote board here.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: Plus 500 T4 software is what keeps us up to date with up to the minute quotes, real-time quotes, in fact, and a host of dandy features, thanks to the folks at plus 500.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: Looking over at December corn, I'm up two and one half cents at settlement.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: You know, let's let's look out just a little bit further.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: The March is up two and a quarter.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: We get out to the July 27.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: We're up one cent even at 5.59 and a half.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: Once again, your December corn at 5.35 and three quarters at settlement.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: Over to the Beaners, decent day.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: We're up a dime at lunchtime.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: Here we find at settlement, we're definitely double digits higher.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely double digits.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: 14.5 cents higher on the November contract, 13.18 and three quarters at settlement.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: Just popping out a little further.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to the March just for fun.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_01: 15 cents higher on the day, 13.43 even for your soybeans.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Meal was higher.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean oil was the nearby in the soybean oil were higher.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: You get out to the deferred, the March and the May, off just a couple of ticks on the day, but mixed action in the soybean oil.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: And over to the wheats.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: December Chicago wheat at 728.5.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's up six and one half cents.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: And then let me move this pencil here.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: Chicago HRW Wheat.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see, 796 and a quarter at settlement.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's three and three quarters higher.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: And over to the live stocks, just a click of a tab here.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's so easy with plus 500.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: Your October feeder cattle, 333 and 85 cents.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: That's down$4 even on the day.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: Your December fat cattle,$223.35, down a buck eighty.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: October fats$220.70 the settlement.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: Down a buck 55 on the day.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: October lean hogs down 52.5 cents at 79.07.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Let's look a little further out on those hogs.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to Feb.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: Down a buck 70, 71.90.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: That spread is the October to D spread.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's a thing or not, but it's really hanging in there pretty solid at about 10 bucks.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: And it looks like today we we did a little bit of work to solidify that roughly$10 spread.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: Those were your settlements from plus$500.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: In lieu of a guess, let's just go straight to the weather.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: The National Weather Service says hot temperatures and high humidity are forecast to continue across much of East Texas into the mid-Misissippi Valley through this week, heavy to excessive rainfall occurring at times through Friday, and that could bring areas of flooding across parts of the Central Plains into the upper Midwest and four corners states.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: Look at you see where that purple is right there, everybody?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's Kansas City.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: That's Kansas City.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: We're under a flood watch.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's supposed to get zoppety a little bit later on this afternoon.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: I can't see my temperature right now.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's steamy outside, but not hot.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think they said relative humidity in the 70s.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's more humid than it is is hot here in Kansas City.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: But we're under a flood watch and areas, oh, I don't know, what would that be?
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe 200 mile radius?
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Not that much.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: 100 mile radius around Kansas City.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: Look out.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: You you're probably under a flood warning as well.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get on to some items of mild interest for this day in history, September 15, in 1830.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: William Huskison becomes the first passenger killed by a railway train.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: Get this, while attending the open of the Liverpool-Manchester Railway at Parkside Station in England.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's not a good day.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: You go for the opening of this new railroad and you become the first passenger killed by a railway train.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's that's some bum luck right there.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: In 1967, KPOB TV Channel 15 in Poplar Bluff, Missouri.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's an ABC affiliate began broadcasting.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: In 1972, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake shook northern Illinois.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's a strange one.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: You don't think of earthquakes in Illinois, but uh sure enough, 1972, they had a 4.5 magnitude quake.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: And just one more, 1977, the crime drama Chips, starring Eric Estrada and Larry Wilcox.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, Larry, there they are.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: Larry Wilcox uh premiered on NBC.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you remember watching Chips or not.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: If if you do, you and I can probably be friends.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: That was a good show.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there was a run of good shows back then.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: I was young, so the chronology maybe slips me just a little bit, but for a while there, you know, you had the A-Team, which was awesome.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: You had the Fall Guy.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Remember the fall guy?
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: There was Riptide, that was a good one.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: All sorts of good shows clumped right around this.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: Some people would probably throw TJ Hooker in there too, but I think that was later.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: I don't remember when TJ Hooker would have been.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, a little Shatner.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: Never never hurt anybody.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm gonna wrap it up here.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: That's about all I have to say on the markets today and on anything else.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: Special thanks to Trade the News for keeping me and my squad informed on market moving news.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: And may I direct you to take your marketing by the horns with AgBull Intel.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm for the details.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: Jed Sidwell will have the morning calls bright and early tomorrow.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe my guest from today will be able to appear with us tomorrow.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: If not, I'm just gonna talk to myself.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe Jed will swing by.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: I don't quite know what's gonna happen with tomorrow yet, but I hope you'll I hope you'll be here at the very least.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get you set up with what you need to know and what happened in the markets.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: So for all of us here at Egg Squawk in the afternoon, Davis Michaelson, your pal saying thanks for being here.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see you tomorrow.