Latest / The Curve / RTC30: Global conflicts: how they impact our economy & our investments.

Transcript

RTC30: Global conflicts: how they impact our economy & our investments. · The Curve

0:00
Welcome to season two of Raising the Curve, a conversation for women who want to
0:06
learn more about money, via money. For the future they want to have. The pursuit
0:11
for financial confidence and increasing your wealth should be a simple one. So
0:16
this is a place for you to learn about investing in finance in a non-scary or
0:20
intimidating way. Thank you for being here and for listening. Because together we
0:25
really can raise the curve. This feels quite weird, doesn't it? Yeah, quite sad. Not
0:31
only is it eight PM at night, nine PM at night, isn't it? We normally record
0:36
during the day, so we're trying really hard to be perky. I feel like I need a bit
0:40
of a snooze. But also it's our last episode, which is quite sad. Although it's
0:47
quite annoying to try and organize all the people that it takes to get to do it. I
0:52
don't know. Oh gosh, yeah. And then before we know, it'll be season three. So for
0:57
our last episode, we were thinking that just given everything going on in the
1:03
world. Yeah, because normally our episodes are kind of evergreen. You know, they're
1:07
lessons that are very usable at any time. You could pick it up in five years and
1:12
have a listen and learn about what the differentiated classes are, for example. But
1:16
there's been a lot happening, you know, beyond COVID, everything happening in
1:22
Ukraine with the invasion of Russia. And yeah, we've had a lot of messages
1:28
about people's investments. And a lot of concerned, yeah, people concerned
1:33
about their investments, people asking if they should pull their money out, if
1:37
they should put money in. And we don't want to sound inhumane or or anything
1:44
like that. We just, we thought we would take an investing approach to this
1:48
situation rather than giving our views on what's happening as such. Because it's
1:54
obviously a super sensitive situation. We're doing our best to stay, you know, as
1:59
educated as possible. And we've also tried to be as careful as we can be when
2:05
talking about this, because obviously the most important thing right now is
2:07
people being safe and free. And a life should be. But obviously that's not the
2:14
reality right now. And our hearts go out to all those people. And it is so
2:19
heartbreaking to hear all the, see everything on the news and what everyone's
2:23
going through. But we are an education platform. And the best thing we can do
2:27
right now, we thought was really educate all of you about, you know, what's
2:34
going on there from an investment lens. So that, you know, you can take
2:39
those, take those learnings and and use them in your investment journey and
2:43
your investment approach. And learning from it from an educational standpoint,
2:46
when it comes to finance and investing and understanding how volatility and, I
2:50
guess, global events affect us in a different way than obviously what we would
2:59
be reading about on the news and looking about in terms of what's actually
3:02
happening. And you can apply those learnings to, you know, other situations
3:06
with this market volatility. So I guess starting off when, you know, when
3:11
Russia did invade Ukraine, the first thing a lot of companies and
3:15
governments did was put sanctions on Russia. And by sanctions, we mean
3:19
restrictions or, you know, they, they, they, they ceased operations in Russia.
3:23
It was partly in those companies saying, or governments saying we don't
3:27
agree with what you're doing. And part of it was also their customers or
3:33
their investors saying we don't want you to be doing that. And we don't want
3:37
you to be seen to be supporting Russia. So, and then you're also, if
3:41
you're ceasing operations in Russia or pulling your money out of Russia,
3:46
then you are starving them of capital and you're starving them of
3:49
resources, which will eventually lead them to not be able to function as an
3:55
economy and grow as an economy. So there's, there's multiple consequences
3:59
of putting sanctions on Russia. So just to put it in the scheme of things,
4:03
yes, Russia is a massive country in terms of its size, but in terms of its
4:07
contribution to gross domestic product or GDP, it's actually quite small.
4:12
So it's only a two to three percent of global GDP. And to put that in
4:16
comparison, that's like the United States and China are 15 to 17%. So
4:21
they, they seem big, but they're actually not big in terms of their
4:26
impact on global global output and global production. So
4:29
and is that anything from products to products? Yes, yeah. Yeah. So the
4:35
key thing in what we're kind of seeing at the moment is that Russia is a big
4:39
producer of oil. So a lot of companies purchase their oil from Russia.
4:45
And with all these sanctions and there's these restrictions on supply of
4:51
oil. So the price of oil is skyrocketing. So like skyrocketing, I mean,
4:55
like, so what, yeah, what was it before and what is it now?
4:58
Yeah, so the price of oil has surged to levels that we haven't seen since
5:02
2008. So back when we had the global financial crisis and, you know,
5:08
how disastrous that was, so we haven't seen oil at these levels since then.
5:12
So this, this is why people are freaking out because what is high oil prices
5:17
mean for the rest of the world and what's the impact on the rest of the world?
5:20
Yes, Russia is small in terms of gross domestic product, but these
5:24
consequences of sanctions actually impacting the rest of the world.
5:28
And so high oil means high petrol prices, which means it leads to an
5:34
also leads to inflation, which means our goods and services are going to be
5:38
more expensive. So there's lots of kind of slow on a thing, little
5:42
little waves that kind of flow into the rest of the rest of the world.
5:45
And that's why you're getting a bit freaked out is, okay, what are the
5:48
consequences of this war?
5:51
And so with the, I guess with the sanctions and the fact that the price of oil
5:57
has, and gas has gone up so much, is it because now that they've been sanctioned
6:02
off? Because people still need oil and gas, right?
6:06
It's still as needed as it always has been. So what if you think of like a big
6:11
pie of, no, maybe this way. If you think of like 10 people
6:17
needing oil and there's eight people supplying that oil and say six of
6:23
those people are Russia, they're gone now. Oh, and that's because no one
6:27
is accepting oil and gas from them because they don't want to fuel their
6:30
economy. Exactly. So and because the sanctions and because
6:33
the public backlash, you know, imagine if New Zealand was getting it,
6:36
getting oil from from Russia. Oh, you know, the public outcry would be
6:40
would be horrific. So so now you've got those 10 people
6:43
trying to get oil from two people. It comes back to economics. And it's like with
6:47
the stock market, if you've got more demand and less supply, the prices go up.
6:52
It's exactly the same when it comes to oil commodities. And that's what we're
6:55
seeing is this increase in oil. And then other effects of that is like in
7:00
airlines, you know, the airlines are huge consumers of oil and petrol and
7:05
and they're, you know, so the airline ticket is going to be more expensive
7:08
and it's just it just continues down the value chain until we feel it
7:13
like you and me in everyday life. So how does this affect the progress that we've made in terms
7:18
of moving away from using oil and gas and moving away from relying on
7:24
extracting those resources from the planet and what that's doing in terms of
7:28
global warming? Because we were making huge leaps and bounds towards, you know, more electric
7:33
cars and blah, blah, blah. So all that trickled down. Well, that's kind of, I hate to say it,
7:38
but you know, one of the kind of the silver linings here is that because people because
7:43
companies can't get their oil from Russia, they're going, okay, shit, we're going to have to
7:50
get more of our energy from renewables. So there we increase allocation to renewables or,
7:57
you know, they might go that extra mile to actually find that that renewable energy, whereas
8:01
before that just default to oil. So we are seeing a huge acceleration in the need for new
8:07
renewables, which is fantastic. So there's been this, yeah, so we, I mean, there's a lot of
8:12
headlines about the bad things and the companies that are impacted and everything, but there's
8:16
actually a lot of companies that are positively impacted as well. And renewables is one sector that
8:21
has just gone from strings to strings. And we've seen that in the clean energy ETF, which is
8:26
the largest kind of renewables ETF, and it's listed on the, on the US stock market.
8:32
What's that one? What's called the clean energy ETF? So it's code is ICLN, and that's just
8:39
ICLN. Yeah, yeah, and that's gone from strings to strings when the market keeps falling. So
8:44
so what other trends are you seeing in terms of the flow on effects? Like are there other companies
8:49
that traditionally haven't had much, I guess, invest a tension? And now, I mean, I don't want to use
8:56
the word benefiting, but that you've seen, yeah, trends that are not plummeting, I guess.
9:02
Yeah, I guess there's been, it's more of an asset class benefiting, which is government bonds.
9:08
So particularly US government bonds, which are considered super safe. And so there's almost what
9:13
we call in the industry as a flight to safety, because people don't want to own shares of stocks,
9:18
because they, it's so old school, like, oh, a flight to safety or don't catch your falling
9:24
knives, like let's just let's just them up a bit. So what does it mean a flight to safety?
9:29
I mean, it means we think of these birds just like flying to safety, but yeah, it's so a flight
9:34
to safety is when everyone kind of freaks out and puts, what allocates their capital their money to
9:40
safer assets, so bonds cash that kind of thing. So we're seeing, yeah, huge increase in demand
9:47
in US government bonds, because they are considered the most, the most safe type of bond,
9:51
safest type of bond. Are there returns on those bitter than they were before?
9:55
So the price of them is going up, yeah. Is it the same for bonds and other parts of the world?
10:01
Like we're in New Zealand, so it's just bonds across the country, because they're the same.
10:04
But US government bonds are considered kind of the crem de la crem of bonds.
10:09
What's an example of a bond over there? I wouldn't even know.
10:13
So the US government like issues bonds. Oh, the government.
10:16
Yeah. So yeah. So when we're talking about all accounts or issuing bonds, and then you've
10:21
got Auckland Airport issuing bonds, you can have corporate bonds or government bonds.
10:25
Government bonds are considered safer because they're government back. So yeah, going to the US
10:31
government bonds is like, and why is this was like the top of the pyramid? Why is the US bond?
10:37
Considered safe right now, just given what's happening. And the US involvement and
10:44
they're just the safest. They've always been the safest.
10:47
And it's kind of they're the most dominant economy.
10:52
And a lot of people putting money in cash as well.
10:55
We have to think about market volatility in terms of probabilities.
11:00
The markets fall in, say, 10% that likelihood of falling in other 10,
11:05
or as the likelihood of it going back up another 10. And so that's kind of what you've got to
11:09
think of in terms of looking at historically, how often has the market fallen this much, and
11:14
and how long has it taken to fall? How long has it fallen this much before?
11:19
So it's had corrections like this. Yeah. So the biggest one was COVID, which was March 2020.
11:24
But we did, we got hold of a study that had been done on over 40 past crises and wars,
11:32
and, you know, major events globally. And within just over 20 days, the stock market had fallen
11:43
and gone back up to previous highs. In the same 20 days. Yeah. So the average was,
11:50
sorry, nearly all those cases within 29 days. And it corrected.
11:54
Yeah. So that's why we say, like, you need to take a long-term view and we sound like broken
11:59
records, but 22 days in the scheme of things is not long at all.
12:03
But do you, so is that realistic? So say we were to go back to World War II. Yeah.
12:09
And markets obviously had a huge correction fell. Are you saying within 21 days they were back to normal?
12:16
We're most of those cases. They seem massive and major and really concerning because of the headlines,
12:22
and they are, and people do lose money. But it's more, you kind of to try and take a step back.
12:28
There's always going to be, unfortunately, things that you can't see coming.
12:33
You can't control what we call black swans. Oh, my goodness.
12:39
I was like, oh, God, here's another analogy. Yeah. So a black swan.
12:42
You need to jazz. I think this is your job.
12:45
Coming up. I think you need to be the one to like really spearhead the...
12:48
If you spearhead, I'm so old-school. I mean, what's another scary character? I can't say he's
12:53
a flying unicorn. I think you say, what are they called? They're called black swans.
12:58
I think you can't see your products. I don't know. Like the boogie monster.
13:02
Like, just anything that's a little bit... Okay.
13:05
Look at how I take it back. Black swans, yeah.
13:08
Oh, my gosh. I can just see myself working.
13:10
And here comes the boogie monster. Super professional.
13:16
You just refer to it as the black swan.
13:18
Really? So people talk about it actively. It makes conversation.
13:21
There's books about black swan events and like...
13:23
Would you and would you in a normal conversation at work say?
13:28
Of the black swan.
13:30
The black swan, the war one?
13:32
So you're talking about COVID, for example. Would you be like...
13:35
Also, the black swan, would you say the...
13:38
The COVID black swan? Or what would it be?
13:39
No, you'd be like, oh, that was a really black swan event.
13:42
Wasn't it? Right, right. You wouldn't be like...
13:45
That black swan...
13:46
It doesn't seem like you were afraid to know.
13:48
No, black swan events are just like...
13:50
I think you can't really see coming and then they're just like...
13:53
Yeah, okay.
13:54
So, okay, sorry, that was a bit off track.
13:56
So this is why...
13:58
Yeah, you can...
13:59
This is why diversification is good as well.
14:01
Because you can never, ever, ever see a black swan event coming.
14:05
Even if you think about everything or risk and you think you've covered all bases,
14:09
there's always going to be something that's going to pop out from under the bed.
14:12
And so then I guess looking at the other asset classes.
14:14
So obviously, the share market has had a huge fall.
14:18
Yeah. What about the Russian...
14:21
Russia is actually closed at Stock Market.
14:23
What is that then?
14:24
Because it fell so much and because
14:25
everyone was pulling their money out and companies were placing sanctions.
14:30
And so it's quite surreal.
14:32
If we just think about that for a second,
14:34
if you had shares and the stock market,
14:38
you wouldn't be sitting.
14:39
So say the US Stock Market, the Australian Stock Market,
14:41
New Zealand Stock Market, closed and you couldn't get your money out.
14:47
Imagine the panic that that instills in companies, in investors,
14:53
locals, it's quite a...
14:58
It's quite a stance and it's quite a...
15:01
What's what I'm looking for?
15:02
Has it ever happened before?
15:03
China's done it.
15:05
They've done it before.
15:08
But yeah, it's quite an intense stance that you're taking.
15:14
Not letting people get their money out.
15:15
So it's very rare this summer.
15:17
It's very rare.
15:18
Yeah, yeah.
15:19
And it's not good because it doesn't create a free flowing financial system.
15:27
You know, the whole point of a stock market is that you let supply and demand
15:32
navigate what prices are.
15:34
So putting in regulation and preventing that is just...
15:40
It's a recipe for disaster, really.
15:42
The fact that foreigners with money in there can't get their money out.
15:46
And then locals with money in there can't get their money out.
15:48
It's just...
15:49
How much would it be in the Russian Stock Market?
15:51
Do you have any idea of the total amount?
15:54
No, I don't.
15:56
But it would be hundreds of millions.
15:58
Yeah, so it would be...
15:59
Is that right?
16:00
Hundreds of millions?
16:01
It would be like billions.
16:01
Wow.
16:02
Yeah.
16:03
Wow.
16:03
And so there's no indication of when that's opening
16:06
or when people will get access to that money.
16:08
No, no.
16:09
Well, they said it was only supposed to be two days.
16:11
It's now been a week.
16:12
So who knows?
16:14
And this is...
16:15
But this is the risk that you take when you invest in countries like this where,
16:18
you know, there is kind of political instability
16:21
or governments that can step in
16:24
and interfere with capital markets.
16:27
And it's kind of the risk you take.
16:29
Yeah.
16:30
So these are a master card,
16:32
said that there were suspending operations in China.
16:35
So all transactions initiated with these cards,
16:38
issued in Russia, will no longer work outside of the country.
16:41
Well, that's quite major.
16:42
What does that even mean?
16:43
That means if I was a Russian
16:45
and I was outside, say, on holiday,
16:48
if I was in Germany on holiday or...
16:50
You moved and you moved or you moved or you moved.
16:52
Your card just doesn't work.
16:54
Holy moly.
16:55
Like if you just kind of have to stop and think
16:59
how big that is.
17:01
Like, imagine that being you
17:04
and how disruptive that is.
17:06
Oh, there's just...
17:07
Or in the poor people working for Russian companies that can't get paid now.
17:11
Like, it's just...
17:12
And so what we saw, we actually saw what we call a run on the banks.
17:18
Just so everybody knows, this is not planned.
17:20
She's being 100% serious.
17:23
And this is when locals
17:27
go to the ATMs and try and withdraw all their cash
17:29
because their currency is falling.
17:31
The interest rates are rising.
17:33
So they're trying to get as much physical cash as they can.
17:35
It's actually quite sad because the worth of their local currency
17:41
is just going down, down and down and down.
17:43
So you want to have hard cash.
17:45
And all these locals that they have been impacted
17:47
by a decision that wasn't made by the M.
17:49
So there's so many people with that impact
17:51
and that this kind of flows on too.
17:54
But I think coming back to, it's so easy to get caught up
17:58
and there's lots of companies doing lots of different things.
18:02
But to come back to all the questions that we had around
18:05
how does this impact your investment.
18:07
What you really need to think about is
18:10
what are those ripple effects and what are those consequences.
18:13
So high oil prices, high inflation,
18:16
products and services getting more expensive.
18:17
So you're going to have less disposable income
18:20
or less ability to go and buy those extra things.
18:24
So necessities.
18:26
So say now your petrials are more expensive,
18:29
your groceries are more expensive.
18:32
Then you're maybe going to think,
18:34
okay, I can't really afford that holiday
18:35
or I can't really afford those extra close
18:39
that I was going to buy or go out for dinner.
18:41
So you kind of cut back on your spending.
18:43
And so you've got to think, okay,
18:44
what are those companies going to be impacted
18:46
by that if that's happening on a global scale?
18:48
So I don't know, target, for example, in the US,
18:52
you know, they rely on people with spending
18:54
a lot of money in their stores.
18:55
And so that's probably quite a distant ripple effect.
18:59
But that's what we're doing every day
19:00
is kind of thinking, okay, shit.
19:01
So this change and what does that mean for these companies
19:06
and these customers and all that.
19:09
So you're kind of running through scenarios
19:12
of what that means.
19:14
And so what are some of the, I guess,
19:17
what are some of those things that you're noticing?
19:19
Well, so airline stocks have gone up all down.
19:23
Yeah, so if you think the poor airline stocks
19:26
have had a pretty bad run.
19:28
So you had COVID, no one was flying.
19:31
Everyone was locked down.
19:32
Then there was this kind of,
19:33
this protected recovery.
19:34
And everyone was going to be like released
19:36
and then we want to go traveling.
19:38
So there was this kind of this pent up demand.
19:40
And then now you've got war and higher oil prices.
19:45
So and war tend to people don't tend to want to travel as much.
19:50
Well, particularly in Europe,
19:51
you might, you know, if you were tossing up between the US and Europe,
19:54
you might choose the US now.
19:55
So it's kind of there also be there being impacted.
19:59
Russian banks, Russian banks are just like
20:03
their share prices have fallen
20:05
and now the stock market's closed.
20:06
So are the banks still operating in Russia?
20:09
Well, the operating is best they can,
20:11
but they, the transactions like the Swift,
20:17
which is kind of this global network payment system,
20:20
which makes it very easy to make financial transactions
20:23
and then global financial transactions,
20:26
they've removed Russian banks or prevented Russian banks.
20:29
So is it like a way, not a way to transfer
20:31
that's like files, but is it the same?
20:32
It's like electronic money being sent
20:34
from Australia to New Zealand.
20:36
Yes, so you can still do it.
20:37
The Russian banks can still do it.
20:39
It's just it'll take much longer and it'll cost a lot more.
20:43
And so it's just, you're just really preventing
20:48
the Russia from being able to do business
20:51
in any way possible.
20:53
So the likelihood is now that that Russia could
20:56
could head into recession,
20:58
but there's also talks of more global recession,
21:01
which is what people are kind of freaking out about
21:03
because of what these high oil prices
21:05
and high inflation are actually going to do
21:07
for the rest of the world.
21:09
So that's why people are getting freaked out.
21:11
What is your opinion on that, Vic?
21:13
Yeah, it's, I mean, it's, you're constantly
21:16
assessing things day to day and I think
21:18
we're just in such a weird situation at the moment
21:21
because we are coming out of COVID where
21:26
there's so much congestion and supply chains
21:29
and getting goods and services around the world.
21:33
So in terms of like getting a delivery
21:35
from Iconic or whatever,
21:36
there's delays in terms of postage and sending.
21:38
And if you think that of like container size
21:41
of carrots arriving from Australia, for example,
21:46
but there's extra costs associated
21:48
to that and that gets passed on to consumer.
21:51
Also, you know, a lot of people have lost their jobs
21:54
and there's just, there's so much going on
21:58
that's still left over from COVID
21:59
and then now you've got this on top of it.
22:02
And so like I can't remember a time
22:04
where there's been so much,
22:05
so many different things happening at once.
22:08
And you're like, which one's going to win?
22:09
Which one's going to play out
22:11
or which one's going to become a non-events?
22:14
It's a bit, it's really tricky
22:15
and I think this is why diversification is so important
22:19
because I don't know, you listen to any expert
22:23
and they'll have an opinion on what's going to win
22:26
and what's going to, what the world's going to look like
22:27
in the next five years.
22:28
But I think, you know, things are changing so quickly
22:33
and you know, who would have thought
22:35
there would have been a war?
22:36
You know, two weeks ago, we wouldn't have thought
22:38
there would have been a war.
22:39
We wouldn't even be contemplating that.
22:40
So things can change.
22:42
Honestly, like after COVID, I just,
22:45
I'm feeling a little bit like,
22:46
at this point, nothing surprises.
22:48
Yeah.
22:49
And I don't mean that in a good way.
22:50
Like it's just, there's just,
22:52
it feels like so much going on.
22:54
Yeah.
22:55
It can be really overwhelming.
22:56
I feel kind of just an emotional thing.
22:57
Like, you know, it's a lot.
23:00
And I, yeah, I guess it would be really good
23:03
to get kind of like a key overview as to,
23:08
just in terms of the market,
23:09
like what people should keep in mind.
23:12
You know, if you have any words of wisdom for people
23:14
who do feel panic or,
23:17
yeah, I guess just any general information
23:19
that we should know about what's going on at the moment
23:22
is there anything that we haven't touched on?
23:24
Yeah, I think it's, it's, it's probably a few things.
23:26
Like firstly, just try and not get,
23:28
as hard as it is to emotionally involved
23:32
in the investing side of all the economics
23:35
of what's going on.
23:37
You know, it's hard to say that about, you know,
23:38
the, the humanitarian side.
23:40
But on the terms of the investing side,
23:42
it's, it, these things happen all the time, unfortunately.
23:47
And market volatility is, it's,
23:51
well, it seems scary.
23:53
It can actually be a positive as well.
23:55
There's companies out there that will,
23:57
will not be impacted by this,
23:59
whose share prices have just fallen
24:00
because investors have freaked out.
24:04
So is that an example?
24:05
And buy them because it's like,
24:07
so it's like the opposite of a rising tide, I guess,
24:09
is like a falling tide.
24:11
And people freak out and they take their money out
24:13
and that leads to the whole market falling or correcting.
24:17
Yet there'll be companies in there that will,
24:19
either benefit or not be affected at all
24:21
and just keep going about their day and doing their thing.
24:24
And so if you've had your eye on those companies
24:26
and thought, you know, you know,
24:29
I've been waiting for a better time to buy.
24:31
But, you know, this is,
24:32
this could be a great opportunity to buy those companies
24:35
at a cheaper price than what they were two weeks ago
24:39
or a month ago or six months ago.
24:40
So I kind of have a little watch list of mine
24:44
that, you know, companies that, you know,
24:46
whenever I have a bit of money or buy those
24:48
or, you know, wherever the market gets irrational,
24:51
which just means it sells off broadly,
24:54
then I'll buy those.
24:55
But the best thing I think to do in this situation
24:58
is kind of just keep investing consistently
25:00
because none of us are experts in this
25:03
and we don't know what's going to happen around the corner.
25:05
So the best thing you can do is just keep
25:07
investing consistently and do what we call the dollar cost
25:11
averaging and just invest a little bit by little bit.
25:14
So therefore, you know, if the market does keep falling,
25:17
you're getting those companies at cheaper prices.
25:20
And if it does rise, then, you know,
25:23
you're getting a bit more expensive
25:25
but they're still cheap relative
25:26
to what they were two to three months ago.
25:28
So, yeah, so volatility doesn't have to be scary.
25:32
Volatility is the nature investing in the stock market.
25:35
Use it as a buying opportunity,
25:37
rather than a selling opportunity
25:38
because the thing is, if the market's fallen 10%,
25:44
that's only, and say your Kiwi saver,
25:46
all your investment has fallen 10 or 20%
25:49
and you're starting to freak out.
25:51
That's only on the screen, remember.
25:53
As soon as you withdraw your money or your investments
25:57
or hit the sell button,
25:59
that's when you've actually lost that much money.
26:01
And that's one thing to keep remembering is that,
26:04
is that that's only on the screen.
26:06
And so it's not until you hit the sell button
26:08
to crystallize your losses, as we say.
26:11
So what kind of trends or companies or stocks
26:15
would be examples that aren't affected directly
26:19
by what's happening in Ukraine and in Russia,
26:23
that might not be affected negatively,
26:25
like a lot of companies are.
26:28
Are there any examples of industries or...
26:32
Like companies that, where say,
26:34
at least the 1% of their revenue comes from Russia
26:36
or something, that's not going to be a huge impact
26:38
for them at all.
26:39
Or companies that operate domestically,
26:43
so say a company that is manufacturing a product
26:47
and selling it in the country that it operates.
26:50
So it's not having to worry about exporting
26:52
and logistics and all that, or oil
26:55
and getting a product from A to B.
26:57
So in all the tech companies, a lot of tech companies
27:01
would be pretty immune to this as well.
27:03
Yeah, it's hard to pinpoint actual companies
27:06
because the world's changing so often.
27:08
But yeah, that's kind of why we say,
27:10
if you've got investor cross different sectors
27:13
and you invest across different sized companies,
27:15
then this kind of thing won't be impacting you
27:18
as much as if you invested all of your money
27:22
in oil companies.
27:23
I hope no one's done that.
27:24
Oh, well, you'd probably be doing pretty well
27:26
because the oil price is skyrocketing.
27:27
Oh, yeah, it's so...
27:29
It's not day-to-day back.
27:30
Sorry, I was judgy as well.
27:31
Yeah.
27:32
So judgy.
27:34
Yeah.
27:35
It's so weird to think even before we set it the curve
27:38
or I set it having these conversations,
27:40
if something like this happened,
27:41
I wouldn't have either, it would not have crossed my mind
27:44
thinking about this from an economic standpoint.
27:46
You know, and you're like very entrenched
27:48
in different industries to say marketing
27:51
or whatever, and Facebook goes down.
27:52
You're obviously very aware of that
27:54
because it affects your job or...
27:56
It seems just so crazy to me
27:58
that I would never have any idea what this is doing
28:02
from a financial standpoint
28:03
in terms of the world and how that ripple
28:05
through different industries and people
28:07
and then us individually,
28:09
because that's the reality.
28:10
This could affect the whole world
28:13
in the way that we spend money and earn money and...
28:17
Totally, and we do feel a bit removed from it in New Zealand
28:20
because we are so geographically so far away from it,
28:23
but it can very quickly come here and impact you and I
28:27
and impact the amount of savings that we have
28:30
and the amount of money that we can spend
28:32
and how much we earn can affect our wages and all of that.
28:37
So it does have a real impact on everyone, including us.
28:43
Yeah, like our market's down to three,
28:46
it's really three and a half percent in the last month
28:50
in the war, I mean, the war is the started like two weeks ago.
28:53
But we're actually probably in a pretty good position
28:57
because we have a lot of renewable companies listed in New Zealand.
29:00
So that whole trend to more renewables
29:04
could actually be a beneficiary for our...
29:07
All those companies and our stock exchange as well.
29:10
Hey, but it's also,
29:12
means it's a great time to ask for a pay rise.
29:14
Is it? Yeah.
29:15
Because prices are going up,
29:16
so inflation's coming through.
29:18
So it's a very easy conversation to have with your boss to say,
29:21
look, my groceries are now seven percent more expensive.
29:26
My electricity's gone up, my petrol's gone up.
29:28
I need a pay rise.
29:29
Wow, that's such a fantastic thing to point out.
29:34
Yeah.
29:36
Because you know why? Great leverage you've got there.
29:38
No, it's true. Yeah.
29:39
Because there's a lot of people that wouldn't have even thought of that.
29:42
I wouldn't have thought of that.
29:43
Yeah, sorry to all the bosses out there.
29:45
Yeah. Yeah.
29:47
But it's true, because you're now effectively your purchase,
29:50
what you can purchase has gone down.
29:53
Your purchasing power has gone down
29:54
because everything's more expensive.
29:56
I've tried that before.
29:57
I remember in a pay rise chat,
29:59
and I was like, you know, my rent's just so expensive.
30:02
And I just, you know, living is blah, blah,
30:04
and I remember giving that spiel,
30:06
but I didn't feel like I had it.
30:07
I mean, there wasn't a...
30:09
It's the rest of the global recession.
30:10
Yeah.
30:11
Quite good to know.
30:13
Because all those companies will be passing on those price increases
30:15
to their customers or their clients, you know,
30:18
like we're seeing it come through.
30:19
Oh my God, guys, everybody asks for a pay rise.
30:23
Not you, though, so.
30:24
Yeah.
30:26
The companies are making way more money.
30:30
So is there any other key takeaways or things that...
30:34
I just want to finish on something epic
30:36
that I read about UBMB.
30:38
And so there's been like over 60,000 UBMB holidays
30:44
books in the Ukraine of people booking them, not going,
30:48
but just booking them so that locals in the Ukraine
30:51
can get paid out money.
30:52
Oh my God, it's such a good idea.
30:54
And I just read that and I was like, you know,
30:57
people complain about these big tech companies and everything
30:59
and how they're dominating the world.
31:01
And I was like, but how cool is it that someone sitting in New Zealand
31:05
can send money to a local Ukrainian
31:08
and they can get the money out and it can help them.
31:12
And I was just like, God, that brings his hands
31:14
book heaps of Ukraine in holidays.
31:17
Yeah, I just thought there's such a good way to use a platform
31:19
that's not supposed to be used for that.
31:20
And then it's going straight to them.
31:22
It's like a donation.
31:23
Yeah, and you're not getting scammed by anything,
31:25
you know, UBMB is a reputable platform.
31:27
Oh, what if you...
31:27
Thank you so much for that.
31:29
That has really made me feel a little bit warmer inside.
31:33
That's good.
31:34
But that's a really creative personal way to kind of just be like,
31:38
we're here for you, we're seeing love and like...
31:40
And they posted all these comments from the hosts and it was like...
31:43
Oh, it's really, wow, that's so cool.
31:46
Yeah, that's really, really cool.
31:49
Thank you so much for the overview.
31:51
No, I'm feeling a bit emotional.
31:54
It's our last episode of Ag.
31:55
I know, I'm feeling a bit emotional.
31:57
Emotionally episode and emotional time here.
31:59
Yeah, but yeah, it's been a really great season
32:03
and I feel very proud of us.
32:04
And we have some really exciting topics to discuss in the next season as well.
32:09
Oh, already.
32:11
It was, we never really say this in any of the episodes,
32:14
but if you think that this is something that, you know,
32:16
your friends, your mum, your sister, your granny,
32:19
anyone would learn something from them.
32:21
Please do share it around, like, whether that be on socials or,
32:25
you know, directly, because the more people that learn,
32:28
obviously, the better.
32:29
The better.
32:29
Yeah, the better.
32:30
So we hope that you've enjoyed the season
32:32
and thanks so much for listening.
32:34
And we will be back for season three soon.
32:37
And let's also say thanks so much to our sponsor state,
32:39
because they really came to the party this season and made it possible for us.
32:43
So thank you so much.
32:44
Yeah, thank you state couldn't have done it without you.
32:45
So thanks.
32:47
Thank you so much for joining us for today's episode of Raising the Curve.
32:51
Please subscribe and leave a review on what ever platform you're listening on.
32:55
We would also love for you to share this podcast with anyone you think would benefit from it.
32:59
For more information about the curve and how you can learn more,
33:02
head to the curve.co.nz or find us on socials
33:06
at the underscore curve in Z.