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Transcript

NFL Week 4 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season. Man
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my browins hack, Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: But I don't even know what day it is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: you about this anymore. To the slump, the slump discontinuous,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you. This is better off dead
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: NFL Week four edition. Is it week four? I think
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: it is. I don't even know. Man.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: We had another winning.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Day today, and it looked like it was going to
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: be an absolute monster of a day as we started
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: off four and oh with Kansas State getting an easy
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: win and cover there pretty much never in doubt. Ah,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So that was a nice one. Iowa covering on that one,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: and the ending to that game was hilarious. I don't
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: know if you say that game, but we have a
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: very loud truck outside after midnight, so that's always awesome
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: in a residential neighborhood. I just constantly complain about it.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: At least it's not somebody intentionally revving an engine this time.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: But Iowa, dude, they were winning the game.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Thirteen to ten in the fourth quarter, so it's like,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: you obviously know Iowa was the right side. It was
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: an like a ridiculously low scoring game. It played out
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the way I thought it the way I thought it would.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Iowa just slowing the game way down fell right into
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: their hands. They probably could have and should have won
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: the game. I was tied thirteen to thirteen with I
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: think about a minute left in the game in Indiana
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: finally got a touchdown. They had one other touchdown in
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the game, but they got a touchdown to take a
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: twenty to thirteen lead, and then Iowa had one more
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: shot at it, and I believe they turn it over
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: on downs, and I believe their quarterback was out of
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: the game at that point, so I think Gronowski was
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: hurt or something because some other quarterback was in there.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know what Iowa was doing. Maybe Gronowski was hurt,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: but they just threw a bunch of incomplete passes, turned
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the ball over on downs. So I mean, at that point,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: it's like, please just end the game, man. But Iowa
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: had all three timeouts left, so it's like, well, what's
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Indiana gonna do? Because they were like twenty seconds left,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Indiana took took over it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I believe it.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: They're on forty, so they're like not that far away
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: from field goal arrange and they're up seven. At that point,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I'm like, please, just like just end the game, man,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Like one first down in the game is over. But
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Iowa did something. People were saying that the game was rigged,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: but I don't really think some man, because I mean, yeah,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the line was seven really early on, and to be honest,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I think anybody that laid seven with Indiana I think
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: they deserve to lose. Like that game, it was all
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Iowa covering the spread in that game, like the only
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: time where they were not within seven was literally the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: final score and that was it.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: So if you had, yeah, Indiana minus seven, I still.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Think you deserve to lose.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: It was gonna push.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: But then Indiana, I don't think they I don't think
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: this was rigged, like because vague Oh they wanted Iowa
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to cover the spread. Well yeah, but most of the
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: bets came in after it was already probably up to
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: like seven and a half, Like it wasn't seven for
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: really that long a period of time. I think it
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: was up to seven a half. It was all the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: way up to like nine. I think maybe even nine
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. When the game kicked off, I gave
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: it out at eight and a half, so we didn't
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: even get the best number on although not much of
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: a difference between eight and a half and nine and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: But Iowa, I actually think they did like a Bill Belichick.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Basically, they did like the something that actually makes sense
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: if you want to win the game. They took an
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: intentional safety by having their quarterback run backwards, so it
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: wasted tons and tons of time. Right, it just takes
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: a snap run backwards. The defense is not going to
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: catch up to you run all the way back through
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the end zone. Take the safety, and that takes so
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: much time off the clock that by the time you
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: free kick it back to Iowa, they're not gonna be
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: able to do anything. The game is gonna be over
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: on that kick attempt. So I actually think it made
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: sense to do that, and just you don't even have
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to face Iowas deepfense, which is the strongest unit, so hilaire. Curiously,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: it wound up a five point win for Iowa. So
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: or a five point win for Indiana. Excuse me, so
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: all of the Iowa backers covered. Yeah, I'm happy about that.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Just take a lesson man take a lesson from me.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Iowa was obviously the right side. Oklahoma State covered as well.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: It got a little bit questionable near the end of
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State was still within like eleven points in the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter though, so it was like they definitely should
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: have had it in hand, but they gave up another
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: ten point or no, I think they gave up just
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: one more touchdown, so they were down eighteen. It was
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit dicey at the end of Baylor
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: actually got into field goal range, but lucky for us,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Baylor decided they were going to try to get as
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: many first downs as possible and run out the clock,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: and that is what they did. So they never gave
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the ball back, never kicked a field goal. They just
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: ended the game with the eighteen point wins. So we
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: got that one as well. We got the first baseball
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: game was up was pretty easy as well. Pittsburgh Atlanta
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: first five under. It was a one to one game
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: at the end of five, so that was easy as well.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: The full game also went under. Then we wound up
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: losing the last two and I will tell you Florida
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Atlantic that was nowhere close to what the final score
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: looked like. They lost by like almost thirty points on
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the final score. But if you saw what happened in
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: that game, No, Florida Atlantic was covering that game almost
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: the entire time. They were losing by I think one
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: point at halftime. I think it was seventeen to sixteen,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So a first half bet would have covered. But I
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: don't really do like halves in football. I just go
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: full game pretty much, just all sides. But Florida Atlantic
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: was still in that game. They were still covering into
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. They were covering with like nine minutes
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: left in the game. They'd covered wire to wire up
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: to that point. They were still I think they were
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: down by what was it, I think they were down
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: five in the fourth quarter, like pretty late in the game.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: They were down five, and then they gave up two
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: scores ten points, and then all of a sudden, they
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: were down fifteen. So there's still one point away, and
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: it looked like the game was going to potentially end
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: either they lose by fifteen or they're gonna score and
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: back like re like back door basically the cover after
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: they were covering the whole game anyway, and they shouldn't
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: have needed to backdoor. And what did they do. They
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: turned it over on downs. Memphis scored another touchdown because
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: uh fau, I think turned it over on downs in
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: their own territory. I think they might have let Memphis score.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I wasn't even watching it, but Memphis scored another touchdown
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: almost immediately. Then Florida Atlantic got the ball back one
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: more time, and at that point, they're now down twenty two.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So you're thinking, well, the only way they can push
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: this now is if they get a touchdown a two
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: point conversion, which they might try for because they're down
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: fifteen at that point, if they get another touchdown. But
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this is all happening with like in the final four
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: to three minutes of the game, and then what happened,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: uh Florida Atlantic. I believe they fumbled the kick return
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: over so they fumbled in their own end, and then
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Memphis scored another touchdown right after that, So that's why
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: the final score looked like that. I still think Florida
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Atlantic was the right side and that one that was
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous the way that game ended. I mean, they
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: were again, they were within six with like nine minutes
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to go in that game, and then we did lose
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: on the a's which is really the only legitimate Ish loser.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: But I know Kansas City scored a run early on
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: an error and like a ground out or something or
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: whatever it was or yeah, I don't know. They they
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: had some sort of force out I think where they
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: got a run home after the runner reached on an error,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: so it was an unnern run and then you.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Had the uh.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Kansas City did score two more runs in the top
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: of the fifth, I think. I think, so we did
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: lose that one, three to uh, three to one. I think, Ari,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: what's up Man? Thanks for hanging out. I'm doing about
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the same man. I mean, we've been winning on the show,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: like I've had all wins for the past week. I
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: don't think I've had any losing days in the past week.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I think I skipped one of the days I skipped completely.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I think it was Monday, but everything else was like, Yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I think we've had wins going all the way back
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: through last Sunday, Nate, What's up? Man, Marshall and Lamar
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Marshall and Lama two of the best teams to talk
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: about when you're in Boston. I don't know what happened
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: as far as those games. I wasn't paying any attention
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: to those games. I don't pay attention to fcs either.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Tower getting in PC. What's up man? You took BYU
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: live at plus two ten? I don't know if I
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: like that. I have the game on right now. My
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: only lean in that game was to Colorado plus the
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: six and a half points or whatever. I don't know
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: if it got to seven or not, but I had
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: a slight lean that way. I'm kind of pissed because
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: some of my other leens did wind up getting there,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and of course we did lose. We lost, you know,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: one of my actual plays for in Atlanta, but it
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: should have won. And then some of my stronger leans
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: did get there. Some didn't, though, so I don't know.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I think Tulane did. And San Jose State, which was
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: kind of near the top of my list, I believe
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: that was a winner. So that was sob I think
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: it was in the chat last night, had that one,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So I think he probably did okay with those. He
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: was on Oklahoma State with me as well. I forget
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: what else he had, but I think he had some
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: decent plays there. Let's get into the NFL, man, this
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: is the end. I'm gonna give you four plays because
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I probably can't. I just can't help myself. We're gonna
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: break down the whole card like we do. We already
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: had the Thursday night game obviously, and I actually gave
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: out the correct lean on that one too with Seattle.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Let's get into it.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Man. If I'm looking weird, I know this orange shirt
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: makes it look I'm not wearing a shirt, so hey ladies,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: but my back kills dude. Like I was sitting on
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: my couch, I got up and I'm like, I don't
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: know what the fuck has happening to my back. It's
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: like you get old, man, your body just starts to
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: like fall apart completely.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the breakdown as my back is breaking down.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: I don't want to take too long with this. The
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: College Football Show is always like two hours. This will
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: probably be about an hour and a half. I hope
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I can do it in less time than that. Let's
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: get into it, man. First game up as Viking Steelers,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: and it's at nine to thirty am Eastern. Because we
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have this bullshit NFL Europe shit happening again, and this
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: is not a London game.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: To sign This is in Dublin, Ireland.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Shit is just so ridiculous. Man. Aaron Rodgers said that
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: he is looking forward to consuming Guinness. If you saw
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: that interview with them, I think he was just kind
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: of messing around. I don't know if he's really gonna
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: put that into his body. I mean maybe he will.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Who knows, because he's that you know, he's the dude
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: who goes on the ayahuasca trips and likes to be healthy.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: But whatever, vikings have flipped from a one point dog
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to to and a half point favorite, which I'm kind
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: of wondering what propelled that move because you gotta think, well,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I should actually look at the look Aheads right now.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Hang on, I gotta grab the look Aheads real quick.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I didn't even I have not even looked at the
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: look Aheads this uh this week. So let me let
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: me pull them up real quick. I'm gonna pull them
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: up if I can find them here. Let me see
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: this website four for four? Is this what I want?
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I just want to see what the look aheadlines are
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: and I usually find it on I think it's on
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: like CBS or something. Yeah, hear it is. I found it. Okay,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna grab these numbers real quick. I apologize
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I did not have these ready to go, and of
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: course they're telling me to get rid of my ad
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: blocker even though I do anyway, So CBS, fuck you man.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Oh you guys don't see this.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think I have in a different tab, but whatever,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: let me get this up or hold on. I usually
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: like to copy and paste it because I don't like
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: how they show the view. So actually you won't see
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: it because I'm just gonna throw it in a notepad.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna look at this right now. So the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: look ahead on this one was Dealers minus one and
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a half. It looks like it's hard to tell with
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: this view, like, oh yeah, Steelers one and a half
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: because it's over to the right side. Yes, so Steelers
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: are one on that point favorite. So basically this was
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the look ahead Vikings plus one. The only reason I
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: could see that the Vikings would be a minus two
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: and that point favorite is because of the quarterback uncertainty.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: And now that the Vikings have announced that, I think
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: we already knew that JJ McCarthy was not gonna play
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: in this game. He's still hurt, so it is going
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: to be Carson Wentz again, and I think Wentz is
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: getting that much respect in the market just because he
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: played well last week. So I think that the market
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: is actually favoring the Vikings more with Carson Wentz in
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: there than with JJ McCarthy. So I think that's what
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: propelled that line move. It was not actually the market activity.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: As we see fifty two percent of tickets on the Vikings,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash coming in on the Steelers,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So the money's coming in on the Steelers. With the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Vikings at two and a half. This kid's even more
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: interesting because this is Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers against
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, and it's in Europe. And if you remember
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: last year, Aaron Rodgers with the Jets played against the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Vikings in London around the same time of the season.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: It might have been in the same week. And if
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: you remember, I.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Had the Jets because for whatever reason, I think it
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for the Vikings and the Jets
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: had a chance to get in that number at the end,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers threw a very crucial interception late in
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: that game. I think he threw multiple in the game,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: and it just screwed me. So it's just interesting that
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has a chance to kind of get ree
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: playing against the same team in Europe again, although this
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: is gonna be in a different stadium this time in
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: a different city as well. But it's like, is that
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: gonna matter for Aaron Rodgers? Is that gonna be a
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: big motivator to beat the Vikings after he lost in
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: a very similar scenario to them last year.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Maybe it does mean that Aaron.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Rodgers is also used to the Europe trip, but the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Vikings are more used to it because.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: The Vikings did it last year.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So that is an advantage that the Vikings have is
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: that they did make a Europe trip last year. And
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I don't believe that the Steelers did. I could be
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: wrong about that. Let me just make sure that on
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: me look at their schedule real quick. I probably should
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: have done this beforehand. These Europe games, just they totally.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Fucked me up.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know when it would have been.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: It could have been against the Giants here if it
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: was one, because it was before a bye. Usually they
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: get a buy after that happens if they do go
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: to Europe. Let me see, Nope, that was in Pittsburgh.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm gonna guess if they did not
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: play in Europe, so the Vikings probably actually have a
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage there. But I do actually
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: lead to the Steeler in this game just because the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Vikings looked too good last week. And it's really just
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: as simple as that. The Vikings were in that game
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: against Cincinnati against Browning, so both teams had backup quarterbacks. There,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you gotta I think the public really was thinking that
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati was gonna play better in that game because Browning
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: looked good against the Jaguars, but I don't think he's
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: actually that good, and that Vikings defense just absolutely annihilated
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati in that game. But I think it does mean
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get value now fading the Vikings because a
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: forty eight to ten win just looks absolutely ridiculous. But
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: if you dive into the box score here, it wasn't
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: as crazy as it looked on the scoreboard. I mean, yeah,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the Vikings definitely outgained them. They outgained them by almost
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: two hundred yards, that's true, but it was worse on
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard because Cincinnati also had five turnovers in the games.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: There were minus five and turnovers. I don't think the
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Vikings are gonna play as well again in this one. However,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh did also benefit last week from a lot of turnovers.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: They played in New England. New England actually outgained them
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: in this game. I thought New England was actually gonna
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: be the right side in this game. New England actually
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: outgained them by one hundred and sixty whatever, one hundred
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and sixty six yards. In that game. New England was
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: minus four and turnovers and they themselves had five turnovers.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: They actually outplayed Pittsburgh.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: In the game.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: So both of these teams coming into this game actually
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: benefited from a huge turnover reedge last week. So this
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: is difficult to handicap, man, it really is. Don't know
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: how the teams are gonna really react going out to Dublin,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: So I have to pass on the game. The money
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: is saying the Steelers. I'm gonna slightly lean that way,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: just because the Vikings looked too impressive last week. In
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: my opinion, I think they're gonna be getting too much
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of the edge here. And the other thing about this
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: handicap is it's the second game of the injured player theory,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: so I talk about the injured player theory. That was
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the spot the Vikings were in last week. When the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback goes down the first game, the team will
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: like realize they really might have to step it up
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: with that backup quarterback in there, so they step up
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: their game then might play a lot better in that game.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: Sometimes you get value on that team.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Although I know the Cincinnati was also in an injured
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: player spot there, but the Vikings. I did like the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Vikings in that game. They wound up being the correct
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: side easily. But the Vikings are in that second spot now,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: so Carson Wentz could take a little bit of a
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: step back this time. I know he's a veteran, he
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: knows what he's doing, but I still don't think he's
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: really that good necessarily, Like the Vikings look better than
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: they actually are. And one thing with the NFL is
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: when a team has like their best possible game. No
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: team is as good as they look when they have
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: like their best possible game, or as bad as they
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: look when they have their worst possible games. So the
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Vikings are kind of broaching at that territory a little
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: bit there being in a spot where last week was
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: kind of like the best possible game they could have had.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: So I do think there might be a little bit
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: of value on the Steelers there, but it's a difficult handicap,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: so that.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Won't be a play for me.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Eagles at Buccaneers this is an interesting one. Man.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: Both these teams, I believe they're both three and oh right.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: But one issue that I do have with the Buccaneers
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: is that they're I think they're kind of a counterfeit
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: three and oh man.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: They're the first team in NFL history to.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Be trailing in the final two minutes of all three
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: of their first three games and win all of them.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay they kind of got like lucky in
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a couple of these games. And they actually got out
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: gained in the first week by Atlanta. And I know
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the first two games are on the road, so you know,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: you can kind of take that for what it's worth.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I guess the fact that they were not easy games
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: playing on the road, but Atlanta out gained them in
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: the game. Atlanta had the lead late in the game.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Atlanta could have tot retied it at the end too,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: but yum Waiku couldn't make a makeable field goal there,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: and then they cut them from the team after that.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Then Tampa was losing in the late minutes against Houston
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: as well and had to put together a final touchdown
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: drive to win the game, and they did against Houston's defense.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Kind of ridiculous. Then Tampa Bay did all play the
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Jets last week. I will I will give you that.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: I was on the Jets last week. As you know
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: on the show. We did get the win on the Jets.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: The Jets made a nice com back, actually took the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: lead late in the game, only to lose at the
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: very end of the game. So Tampa was able to
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: get it done again trailing in the final couple minutes
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: of the game. But Tampa did outplay the Jets. They
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: outgained the Jets in the game pretty significantly. They won
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the turnover battle too, so it is kind of ridiculous
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: that the game was as close as it was. But I'll,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'll just take the win that we got
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: on the Jets covering the spread.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: I think it was the one that.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I handicapped the least correctly out of the three wins though,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: But that does mean Tampa is coming off a scare though,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Like part of my handicap against the Jets. There is
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: that Tampa would be looking ahead to this Philly game
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: and that they were going to be in a bad
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: spot against the Jets because they're coming up a Monday
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: night game, so they had a short turnaround time there.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: It was their home.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Opener, though, so I don't know. Maybe I should have
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: kind of relaxed on the Jets, but we got the win. Nonetheless,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Now Tampa, they are coming off that game where they
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: had a scare as a big favorite, so and they're
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: staying at home now, So there are some advantages for
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Tampa there. When you come off with scare, sometimes that
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: refocuses you and you focus.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: A lot more on the next game.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: So this is a difficult handicap again because I don't
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: think Tampa's as good as they look, But I'm not
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: sure that Philly is as good as they look either
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: as a three to zero team. I mean, they beat Dallas,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: and we see Dallas. I mean their defense just looks
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: pathetic and Dallas. I did give out Dallas as a
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: play in that game. Dallas did cover for us. The
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: lightning delay kind of threw off the entire rhythm of
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the game though, So I don't really know. I still
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: think Dallas might have been able to hang in that game,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: but we don't really know what would have happened. Then
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Philly was able to get the job done at Kansas City,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: which I was pretty surprised by. But I think Kansas
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: City had like a late turnover in that game that
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: kind of swung things, if I remember correctly.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: And then we saw what happened last week.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia was losing to the Rams at home twenty six
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: to seven in the second half, and then they wound
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: up winning the game, and the Rams were attempting a
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: field goal to try to retake the lead and win
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the game at the end, and we saw Philadelphia block
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: in and return it for a touchdown.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: It was one of the worst.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: It's probably gonna wind up being the worst beat of
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the entire season in the NFL. Regardless of what happens
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: from now on in the NFL, I think that'll wind
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: up being the worst beat of the season. It was terrible,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: and I had the Rams in my NFL pick five.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: It was the first one that I left off my
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: actual card as a pick. It should have been a winner,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the Rams plus four or whatever. It was absolutely ridiculous.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: It was a wire to wire cover. They were winning
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: almost the entire game. But in a way, that also
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: means Philly kind of escaped that game, although it was
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: a big game for them too.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Now they have to go down to Tampa Bay.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: It's a tough handicap again, man, because both teams you
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: could argue kind of coming off games where they kind
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: of escaped. The Buccaneers was probably more of an escape
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: really though, because it was against the worst team than
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: the Rams. The Rams are a good team, so I
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: think the Eagles probably kind of expected the Rams to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: put up a fight there. I think both these teams
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: are a little bit overrated. The Eagles are actually the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: favorite on the road. So this is what the oddsmakers
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: think of the Buccaneers here. The Eagles are up from
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: two and a half to three and a half on
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: the road. You might be able to find a three
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: out there if you want to lay less of a
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: price on the Eagles. Fifty tickets fifty four percent of
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: cash on the Eagles right now, So the cash does
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: seem to be coming in on the Eagles side a
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: little bit. I struggle trying to figure this one out, man,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I really do. I mean, my tendency is to want
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: to just jump in and grab the home underdog here,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: but man, it is really difficult. Man. I think I
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: would probably still lean that way because the Buccaneers are
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: not traveling. I think they realized they got lucky and
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: kind of escaped against a bad Jet team against a
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback, which remember that was part of the handicap too,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the injured player theory is going off for the Jets
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: there with the backup quarterback, So I thought that the
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers might take them a little bit more lightly because
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: of that, although Tyrod Taylor, I mean, he's not a
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: bad backup. That was part of the handicap as well.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles, they were in a dog fight against
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the Rams, man, and the Rams are good team, So
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I think the Eagles aren't really coming off in escape. Really.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I think they're coming off a tough game against a
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: good team. So I think I would slightly lean to
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: taking the points with Tampa in this game. But I
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: still think Tampa is very fraudile, and I think the
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Eagles are the better of the two teams, although again
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are overrated. I'm just repeating myself now,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: but yeah, the largest spread of the season so far,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I think is Saints Bills. I mean, you have the
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: worst team in the NFL pretty much, with the Saints
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: up against one of the top teams in the NFL,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills are down from sixteen to fifteen
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: and a half. Here eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the bills. The public looking
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: at this and only wants to lay the price of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: the Bills. I probably wouldn't do it. I mean, I
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: probably needed taking the points with New Orleans. But that's
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: kind of like a default reaction that I have as
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: an old school NFL guy, because like usually, like when
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: you saw a double digit spread, it was just automatic,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: like the double digit hunderdog is more likely to cover.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: But that's not really the case now with the NFL
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: being more offense oriented. So it is possible that Buffalo
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: is gonna cover this. I mean yeah, I mean it
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: is a mismatch for sure. So like you see a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: lot of these double digit favorites covering now in the NFL,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: so it remains to be seen.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I know we had one so far. We actually basically
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: have two.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: This week. We had one I think so far, which
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: was the Ravens against Cleveland, and the Ravens want to
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: blowing Cleveland out, but that game, Cleveland was actually within
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: ten points late in that game, so it wasn't really
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: what it looked like on the scoreboard. And this game,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is going to have to try to slow
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: the game down and they kind of have this weird
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: like short passing attack offense with Spencer Rattler there. They
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: kind of play a possession game where they try to
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: slow down the game by having a lot of short
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: passes basically and running the ball a little bit.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: So that's what they're going to try to do here.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: So if they were able to do that and keep
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's offense off the field and not, they might be
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: able to come within this number. I know Buffalo's way
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: too public. There's no way I'm going to be laying
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the points with the Bills. I'm still probably lean too
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: taking the points of the Saints, but yeah, there's no
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: way I'm touching that game. That game is just ridiculous.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: As far as the situation. The Bills have extra time
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: off because they played on Thursday, but it was a
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup and having extra time off isn't necessarily helpful
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: when you're on a roll like this and you've won
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: all three of your games so far. You just won
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: a divisional game. You looked good in front of a
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: primetime audience, so you don't really want to have that
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: extra time off in a situation like that.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's that helpful.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: They might look past New Orleans because they do have
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: New England up next.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: In New England is in.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Second place to the AFC East, even though they're at
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: one to two. So I mean it is a kind
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: of a divisional sandwich issu here, if you even want
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: to call it that, I don't know, but that's the
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: spot for the Bills there. The Saints of course there
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: own three. And by the way, three and o versus
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: own three is kind of another angle that you can
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: sometimes look for in the NFL if you have that
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the own three team covers more often than the three
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: and oh team does. So it's kind of like, I say,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the same thing with one and O versus own one
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: two and o versus ozho and two. Same thing applies
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: to three and o versus own three. It's just a
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: rarer scenario New Orleans. We saw them hang in their
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: first two games. I know they were both at home though,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: against Arizona and San Francisco, and then they got blown
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: out against Seattle last week, so they are coming off
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: a very embarrassing thirty one point loss. So they look really,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: really bad coming into this game. So I think the
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: value is probably gonna be on the New Orleans side
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: just because they looked so bad last week. But as
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: far as this game was concerned, it wasn't really that crazy, man.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, they only got outgained by Seattle by what
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: is that less than forty yards? Like thirty six yards?
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: They really did not know? Wait what am I? Yeah?
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: So they really didn't get out gained by that much
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: in the game, man. First downs were almost even, turnovers
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: were even. New Orleans had more time of possession. So
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: how did they lose this game by thirty one points?
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I have absolutely no clue. I didn't watch the game.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: I had Seattle and Survivor, but and I picked New
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Orleans in my pickums that you have to pick every
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: team and they to cover the spread, right, this was
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: one of the straight up entrants. That's why you see
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Seattle there. But I think I picked New Orleans against
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: the spread. Yeah, I don't know what happened in this game.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I could look at the scoring
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: real quick, but the final result was misleading. We had
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: a punt return touchdown from Seattle in the game that
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: was part of the reason. Why what else do we
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: have here? Yeah, I don't know. It seems like it
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: was just some weird field position shit in the game
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: or something. I don't really know, because that game should
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: have been a lot closer. See, I will lean to
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: New Orleans plus the points in that game. But man,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: that is disgusting and ugly. Don't want anything to do
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: with the game at all. I'm in my plays are
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be disgusting too, So Panthers Patriots will be one
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: of my players, so I'm skipping it for now. Redskins
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Falcons also one of my plays. Also, I will skip
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: it for now. Yeah, I know you guys are gonna
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: love plays in those two games, right, great games on
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: tap here, Browns at the Lions. The Lions are ten
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: point favorite in this one. Very public n tickets ninety
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash. The public is all on
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: the Lion train now, man, And it's a low total
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: down for forty seven to forty so we know this
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Brown's defense is still a good unit, man, a good unit.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: It's some good Dick Miles Garrett probably got a huge schlong.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: But the Browns defense is good, man.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: It's just their offense is pretty putrid, even with Joe
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Flacco being a veteran there. But the Browns defense has
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: kept them within some games, man, and they got us
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: a win outright last week. As you remember, they were
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: able to beat the Packers, but the Packers were in
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: a bad spot as far as the total is concerned,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the low total, even though the money's coming in on
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: the over now sixty four tickets eighty three percent of
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. When you see a big
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: spread like this in low total, man, a lot of
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: times you do want to look towards the underdog. I
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: win the totals loan again the Browns. They played good
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: enough defense that they might actually be able to stay
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: in this game somewhat. Because I don't think it's a
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: very good spot for Detroit. I don't think it's a
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: good spot for either team. But we just saw Detroit
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: come off three really big games in a row. They
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: opened the season against green Bay, big divisional game.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: I know they lost.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: They bounced back with a huge offensive performance against Chicago,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: and I think Dan Campbell wanted to make a statement
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: in that game because everybody was talking about how Detroit's
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: offense can't do anything without Ben Johnson, and even I
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: said they might be taking a step back without him.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell basically said fuck you against Ben Johnson as
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: well against the Chicago Bears. Or Ben Johnson is now
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: their head coach. Dan Campbell ran up the score in
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: that game against Chicago to make a statement. And then
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: what do they do last week? I gave out this
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: as a lean on the show on Monday. They turned
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: around and they won at Baltimore, which is not easy
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to do.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: That was a big, big win for Detroit.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: So now they're coming off a huge primetime game against Baltimore,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: turning around and having to play this game on a
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: short week. It's not a good spot. Man.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: It would be even an even.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Worse spot if Joe Burrow was healthy for Cincinnati, because
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: that would be they'd be looking at a playoff bound
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati team probably coming up next to so they probably
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: look right past Cleveland.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: But it's still not a good spot. I still think
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: it's a letdown.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Spot for Detroit, but it may very well be a
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Cleveland too, because they put together a
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: nice performance last week and got that big home win
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: as an underdog against green Bay, and now they're going
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: out on the road and it is a road out
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: of conference game. I talk about how road out of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: conference games are the least important on your schedule, but
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I think that is the case more when a team
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: is like favored and they're gonna overlook that team. I
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: think if the team is the underdog, they have more
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: of a tendency to show up.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: In a game like that if the road team is
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the underdog.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Cleveland in this game, just
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: because I would not want to lay double digits with
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit coming off that Ravens win. Yeah, in a spot
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: like this, double digits against this Cleveland defense, I don't
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: want to do it. Cleveland's defense has been good basically
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: in every game. They held Joe Burrow Cincinnati down to
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: seventeen points. I know Cincinnati does start out really slow. Notoriously,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Baltimore only had twenty points against Cleveland going into the
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter of that game, so the defense was better
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: than the final score made it look. There and then
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: they held Green Bay way down as well to ten points.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Events is good, so maybe they can help the Browns
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: hanging some games this year. Man, that would be the
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: way I would lean Browns plus the points. Titans Texans.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: This is ridiculous.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Both these teams are zero three.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Yet the Texans are a seven point favorite, up from
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: six and a half to seven, and the total is
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: down to thirty nine and a half. I mean, I
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: know I always preach ridiculously low total. You want to
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: look to take the points because the points are worth
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: way more and the money is definitely coming in on
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: the under fifty five percent tickets on the over sixty
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. Both defenses are
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. However, this Titan's offense has really shown basically
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: nothing so far this season. Man with cam Ward, it
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: is not going well for them at all. So I
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: think you gotta trust the Sexans offense more, even though
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: they're very injured right now. They're probably not getting mixing back.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know when some of these wide receivers there
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: as are coming back. I think they're missing a couple
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: maybe of their linemen as well.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Offensive linemens.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: The Texans are definitely depleted right now, but the Titans
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: just aren't playing well. Man. You see Owen three versus
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Own three. No, I don't think any recreational bet is
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: really going to want to lay a seven point spread
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: at the Texans here, although we do see eighty one
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them eight or eighty one
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets excuse me, eighty six percent of the
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: cash also on the Texans, and they have climbed up
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: basically through that key number seven there. I mean, I
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: think I'm probably gonna use the Texans and survive, man,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: because this is like they have no future value at all,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Like this is the spot where they have to do it,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: even though it's dangerous in a divisional game with a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: really low total where you think it's probably gonna be
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: a somewhat close game. But Texans defense is still really
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: good and they might be able to hold this Titans
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: offense way down. I know, the Titans kind of have
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: like a slight advantage, I guess, just in the fact
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: that people still don't really know what they're gonna try
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to do with cam Ward there, but it is not
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: panned out. Man. They've scored twelve, nineteen and twenty points
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: so far. Not impressive so far. I mean, and they
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: haven't played on the road since Week one, where I
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: know they did play decently in that game against Denver.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Their defense did play well. But Houston is better than
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: they look right now. Man. I mean, Houston was the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: favorite to win this division. All that I said, I
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: didn't think they would actually win the division. But Houston
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: had owned three. I mean, nobody expected them to be
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: own three. They're better than that owned three record. Tennessee
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: really probably isn't. I know. They played three teams that
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: might all make the playoffs Denver, the Rams, and Indianapolis.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: But Houston played the Rams as well, losing on the
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: road slightly, whereas Tennessee did loose them at home pretty badly.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: But then the public might kind of do that like
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: transitive thing where they say, oh my god, like Tennessee
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: couldn't even beat they got blown out, but even more
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: by you know, the Rams at home and Houston hon
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: with them on the road. But I mean, everybody knows
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: the Texans are the better team anyway. So whatever Texas
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: did play Rams, Tampa Bay and the Jacksonville which is
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: their easiest opponent so far, so the Texans are coming
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: off a divisional game where they had chances to win
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: that game. I think it was ten to ten late
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: in the game. The Texans turned it over late in
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the game, which is what cost them the game. Really,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's coming up a more embarrassing performance, even though it
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: was a divisional game as well. But yeah, this is
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: a difficult handicap again, man, I mean, you could argue
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: that Houston's coming off the more difficult game, but I
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: think both teams have to show up here because they're
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: both own three. So your own three are not really
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: going to overlook anybody, right, So I think you got
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: to kind of lead to the better team when both
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: teams are own three and both teams are trying to
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: show up here. But laying seven with a really low
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: total like that is not something I would want to do.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: So I got to stay away from that game too. Man,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Chargers Giants is gonna be one of my best bets.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: We'll hold that till the end. We're already into the
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: four PM slate now, which we got Jaguars forty nine
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Ers Jags at San Francisco. San Francisco is up from
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: three to three and a half with sixty one percent
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of ticket seventy percent of the cash on the Niners,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: so the money's coming into the Niners.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I see it, man, I really don't.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Man. The forty nine.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Ers, they're still without Brock Party, so it's gonna be
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones again. And he's been decent for them so far.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: But how good is he really? I mean, I'm not
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: a Rock Party fan, but Mac Jones is so bad
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: that he's an obvious drop off. Like if this was
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Rock Party playing, you'd see this line probably be at
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: least a couple points higher. I know the Niners are
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: three and zero. They escaped against Seattle when Seattle was
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: driving late in the game and made a late mistake.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Then first game without Brock Purty, San Francisco did beat
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: New Orleans. I believe Rock Purty did not play in
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: this game, right, let me see? Uh? Yeah, it was
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones. So this was the injured player theory game
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: of for San Francisco. So they won the injured player
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: theory game. They did cover, but not by a lot
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: against New Orleans on the road, though last week was
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: their first home game and they barely got by Arizona
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: that was the game where Arizona had chances to win
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: that game too. But you might then argue that San
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Francisco is coming off a scare against Arizona. But the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: other argument would be that was a tough divisional battle
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: against an Arizona team that was two to zero at
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the time, and now they're facing an out of conference team.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I think the one really valid concern with San Francisco here, though,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: is that they have the Rams next on Thursday nights.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: They have to turn around and play the Rams in
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: like four days, so that is a pretty big time
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: So that is one major.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Concern with San Francisco. That is a huge game against
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: the Rams. Pretty Much everybody's saying the Rams are the
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: biggest threat to the forty nine ers in this division.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I still think that is true. I think San Francisco
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: has to worry about all these injuries they have mounting
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: up too many. They just lost Boso, I think maybe
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: for the season. I mean they're losing a lot of
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: players here. Man. I don't know if Kittle is back. Obviously,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I said Party is not back yet. I don't think
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Jones is that good. So I definitely worry about San
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: Francisco here and men, and they have only won their
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: games by four, five and one points so far, so
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: they're not covering by margin. They're not winning by margin
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: in these games. Man, Jacksonville's two to one, I mean Jacksonville,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: both of these teams could easily be like anything from
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: owing three to three and oh basically because well, actually
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: not Jacksonville Jacksonville. Jacksonville definitely won that first game against Caroline.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was a fine win for them, but
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: they could have easily won the game against Cincinnati, which
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: they lost, and they could have easily lost to Houston.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: So these teams have both kind of been in games
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: where they could have, like the results could have been different.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: And maybe San Francisco couldn't really have lost that game
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: against New Orleans. So I guess you could maybe argue
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: San Francisco could be one and two right now and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars could be three and oh right now, So
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I guess that's the better argument. Trevor Lawrence hasn't exactly
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: been that great so far. This Jags offense hasn't put
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: up more than twenty seven in any game, yet, they
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: haven't really been that good. They do it to travel
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast, So that is a little bit
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: of a concern for them, and they're coming off a
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: tough divisional win. So are they gonna totally get up
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: for a game against the forty nine ers? Maybe they
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: should because San Francisco's three and zero. It is mac Jones,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and that actually is kind of a It makes it
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: a weird spot too, because Mac Jones was on the Jaguars,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: I believe, even up through last year. Right, So Mac
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Jones is now playing against his former team. Does that
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: mean he's gonna be motivated. I don't really think so,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: because it's like, yeah, I mean, Jacksonville let him go,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: but he sucks. So I don't know if he's really
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: gonna be that motivated to beat his former team. Maybe
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville kind of knows his tendencies. But Jacksonville brought in
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: a new coaching staff this year, or at least they
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: brought it in a new head coach, Liam Cohen, who
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: was the offensive coordinator with Tampa prior to this. So
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, this is a difficult handicap for
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: me too. Man. The money's coming in San Francisco going
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: out to the West Coast makes it a little bit
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: of a difficult spot for Jacksonville. I do think that
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot is pretty big for San Francisco, though,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: so maybe that's that a signing factor here, I might
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to the Jaguars plus the points here. I
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: just worry the forty nine ers. Man, this offense, it
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: really has not gotten going at all. So I'm you know,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I'm worrying about how depleted the forty nine ers are,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: especially since I gave out the forty nine ers over
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: their season win total. I give up. I said that
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: I thought the forty nine ers would win the division.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: May be a concern there, man. They'll probably still go
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: over their win total, I think, But and maybe a concern,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: you know, as far as winning winning the division is
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: concerned Colts Rams, I can't help myself. I'm gonna give
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: out a play on that one too, So we'll wait
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: until the end Bears Raiders. The Raiders are down from
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite to a pick
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: them here. I don't know what caused that line move.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: A sixty percent of tickets and sixty five percent of
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: the cash of the Bears, so it looks like legitimate
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Bears in this one.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: And I do not agree with that the Bears. I mean,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: you know me, I don't. I don't think Caleb Williams
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: is good. I don't trust kileb Williams. They're having out
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: to Vegas, which is one of those road out of conference.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: Games, right.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I think in this case, it is not a good
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: spot for the Bears, the road out of conference game,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: because they just came off two divisional games. So they
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: played in Minnesota really close on that Monday night game
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: and blew the game. They got blown out by Detroit,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: but then they bounced back. And I told you I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: liked to the Bears last week actually playing against their
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: former head coach who seems to be awful as a
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. Ever Fleuce ever Flush, who was the head
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: coach of the Bears and was terrible there. He's the
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys now. And that Dallas
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Cowboys defense is horrendous, especially the passing defense. It's not
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: really because they traded Michael Parsons, man like that Dallas
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: defense is so bad. So even though Cale Williams looked
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: pretty good in that game against Dallas, Chicago lit them
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: up it was a good spot to fade Dallas. You know,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Dallas was coming off I believe they were coming off
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: a divisional game against the Giants. That Dallas had the
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Michael Parsons Bowl on Sunday night coming up this week
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: against Green Bay. So it was basically a sandwich spot
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: for Dallas. So I told you I liked the Bears
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: in that game. But this Dallas defense is so bad
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: that Russell Wilson, who basically should be in a casket
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: at this point, put up four hundred and fifty something
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: yards against that Dallas defense. So is Caleb Williams really
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: that good or is Dallas's Is Dallas's past defense that bad?
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I think it's the ladder when Russell Wilson. I mean,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: you saw what Russell Wilson looked like in the other
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: two games against I mean against Kansas City defense that
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: is good, sure, and then against Washington. Washington is not
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: a good defense at all, and Russell Wilson was terrible
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: in both of those games. So I don't think it
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: was Caleb Williams last week. I think it was the
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Dallas defense. I don't think Williams is that good. I
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: think Chicago looked too good last week, even though yeah,
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: you get the first win, you get that monkey off
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: your back. Chicago does have a big game next against Washington,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: even though we don't know it's gonna be after a
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: bye though too, so at that point they might of
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Jade Daniels back, and that's a huge game Jayden Daniels
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: against Caleb Williams, and I believe it's gonna be a
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: rematch because I believe Washington won the battle last year,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: and that's the battle between the two quarterbacks of the
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: draft class last year, Williams versus Daniels. I gave up
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Washington as a play last year on the show in
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: that game, and we got a little bit lucky at
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: the end of that with Washington winning the game with
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: a Hail Mary a touchdown at the end of that game.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: If you remember that, it was never in doubt, baby,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: never in doubt. But that's gonna be a big game
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: if Jayde Daniels is back by then, which he very
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: well maybe, so that might be a look ahead for
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Chicago there to the the Daniels Versus Williams Bowl there.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: So I like the Raiders in this spot, Man and
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, they're just coming off another ugly performance member.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: They just got thrashed by Washington last week, but they
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: were coming off of playing a Monday night game against
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, a Monday night divisional game. Er I liked
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: the Raiders in that spot, and the Raiders just stalled
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: out on offense way too much in that game, having
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: to travel all the way to the East Coast and
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: play Washington, who was in an injured player theory spot,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: So the Raiders probably didn't know exactly what to game
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: plan against, although Washington kind of runs a similar game
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: plan with Mariota in there because he's a similar quarterback
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: to Jane Daniels.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: He can run the ball and whatever.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: But Vegas looked awful last week, so you basically have
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Chicago looking awesome last week, you have Vegas looking terrible.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: But you can kind of explain it because Dallas was
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot against Chicago. I think the Raiders
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: are kind of in a bad spot AGAUS Washington. Washington
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: was in a positive spot and they had extra rest.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Remember coming off Thursday night, Washington an extra time to
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: prepare for that game and get Mariota ready again and whatever.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: And Mariota doesn't know the system anyway, and whatever. He
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: already has been there for a while. He knows it.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: It was the injured player spot where Washington would step
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: up their game. If you go, if you dive into
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: the box score in this game, it was actually closer
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: than the final score looked. Looking at the yard is here,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Washington only outgained Vegas four hundred and three fifty four.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: The game wasn't really as lopside as it looked on
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the scoreboard as well. So I think the Raiders, at
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: least offensively, they're better then they kind of appear to
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: be so far. Like it, it's Pete Carroll now, man,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: it's Gino Smith there. It's gonna be their second home
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: game now. So I like the Raiders in that one.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with the market man,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: as far as what's going on there, I don't agree
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: with that market move or that cash percentage there. I
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: think the Raiders became close to being a play for me,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to be honest, So I leaned to the Raiders in
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: that one. Mitch Trubisky and Mark Sanchez had career and
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: nice against bad Cowboys defenses. I barely even remember those games.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's a long time ago.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: At this point. I remember the butt fumble from Mark
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Sanchez which was on a Thanksgiving game against.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: The Patriots, and I was a hater of the Patriots.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: But I also remember Mark Sanchez beating the Patriots in
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the playoffs playoffs in twenty eleven or whatever it was
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: with Rex Ryan hilarious coach, which he was on Hard
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Knocks at one point when he was with the Jets too.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Which was one of the best seasons of Hard Knocks
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: was the one with the one with the Jets with
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: Rex Rye and he's unbelievably funny. Man.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: I love that season of Hard Knocks.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: That one in the John Gruden Raiders one with Antonio
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Brown like refusing to wear.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: The regulation helmet.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Those were both really good Hard Knock seasons, maybe the
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: two best, because it all depends on who's in it. Man.
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: You know, the Dan Campbell Lyons one was pretty good too.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: That one was in recent memory, but yeah, let's uh anyway, Yeah,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: I liked the Raiders in that one, man, But oh yeah,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, yeah, Sanchez beating the Patriots and
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: that one that was a fun That was a fun game. Man.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: It was mostly the Jets defense beat the Patriots in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that one.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: But still and then I believe.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Was that the I don't even remember what the Jets.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: I think they lost to Pittsburgh. I guess that year, right,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: that was? That was the year that Pittsburgh lost to
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl. Is that right?
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: I think that was that year.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Green Bay won the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers, which
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: I was also happy about because I like Aaron Rodgers.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: So there you go, finishing off the four PM slate
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: of games. Here we have Ravens Chiefs, which is probably
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the biggest game of the entire week. Man, this is
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: a huge game Ravens Chiefs, which every team loses. This
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: game is going to start the season one and three.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: And if you had asked me before the season started,
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: if you had said, either the Ravens or the Chiefs
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: are going to start the season one and three, I
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: would tell you it was going to be the Chiefs
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: because I said I liked the Chiefs to go under
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: the season win total. But you look at their schedules
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: so far. They both had difficult schedules so far. Man.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: I still think the Ravens are probably the best team
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: in the NFL, but their defense has been pretty questionable.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of the problem here.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Man. This is basically a classic offense versus defensive defense
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: matchup here, where the Ravens have the way better offense
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs have the way better defense here right now.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: So that's what we have going on in this game.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: The Ravens down from three to two and a half here,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent tickets, only fifty one percent of the cash.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: So the Ravens are public down from three to two
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: and a half. I should say, I think you probably
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: still get the three on the Chiefs right now, and
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: if you can't get it now, you'll probably be able
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to get at some point tomorrow. I would lean to
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs plus the points in this one. Man, as
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: insane as that might sound, there is a definite possibility
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: that the Ravens my pick to win the Super Bowl,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna start one to three. It is possible.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: I think they'll still make the playoffs, though, I actually
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: think they're still gonna win their division because I mean,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: look at their competition in the division. Joe Borrow's gonna
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: be out for three months. Pittsburgh's not that good. Although
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: it's actually hilarious that Pittsburgh after this week might be
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: in first place in this division again, just like they
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: were last year. It's like, how is Pittsburgh doing this? Man,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Mike tom and obviously Cleveland, I mean, you can't think
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: that they're really a threat here. So I still think
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: Baltimore will win the division. But they've had a difficult schedule. Man.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: They had to face Buffalo, Detroit, now Kansas City, and
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: I thought they would at least win one of those
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: three games. Probably well, I thought they would win the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: first week, which they should have. Baltimore was winning that
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: game as we know, they were winning forty to twenty
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: five with four minutes left. It was a big revenge
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: spot to playoff revenge for Baltimore. There playoffs, and Baltimore
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: outplayed Buffalo in both games and still couldn't get it
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: done in either game. Just ridiculous. Then they won against Cleveland, yeah,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I mean kind of a whatever type of game. And
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: then they did lose on Monday night at home against Detroit.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Detroit had a good game plan for them. Man, it
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: wound up being offense versus offense for the most part
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: in that game, and Detroit was able to get the
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: job done in that game. But now that means Baltimore
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: is coming off a tough Monday night game. They've had
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: a tough stretch of games here. Man, they're having to
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: go out to Arrowhead where it seems like they typically
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: just don't play well there for whatever reason. You've seen
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs pretty much had they get like the calls.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: They seem to have Baltimore's number. You remember the playoff
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: game a couple of years ago where Baltimore just had
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: a stupid game plan in the game. I don't know
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: what they were doing in that game, and then Baltimore
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: did lose I believe the opening week maybe of that
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: same season at the Ravens. Yeah, it's I mean Baltimore
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: at the Chiefs. I mean, so, I don't know. It
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: seems like they don't do well in Arrowhead for whatever reason.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Yet it means Baltimore should be motivated coming in here.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: But they're on a short week, having to travel very
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: hostile environment in Kansas City. It's gonna be difficult, man,
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: facing this Kansas City defense. You know, Kansas City is
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be hungry, It's gonna be mahomes. Kansas City didn't
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: have it very easy to start the season either they
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: had to play the Chargers and Philadelphia, and those teams
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: are both three and oh they're coming off a Sunday
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: night game, so I know they have a somewhat short
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: turnaround time too, but they have extra rest over what
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Baltimore has here.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: They're coming back home here.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna lean to the better defense man,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: better defense at home getting points with an extra day
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: of rest. Kansas City had an easy game last week
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: against the Giants. I know everybody saw that, but I
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: don't think the public was very impressed by Kansas City
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: only beating the Giants twenty two to nine. And Russell Wilson.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Everybody saw that game. Russell Wilson was just throwing the
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: ball to nobody like it made no sense what was
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: going on in that game. He is so washed, dude.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: It's just so ridiculous that he looked like a god
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: against Dallas's defense, and he's been horrific in the other
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: two games. But yeah, I like Kansas City to get
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: it done with their defense in this one man, and
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: they still got Mahomes. I mean, I know it's Mahomes
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: and nobody else basically, but a good quarterback can get
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: you pretty far in this league. Man. You can kind
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: of argue that balt Buffalo excuse me, is kind of
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: that way too with Josh Allen.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: But Mahomes is still there.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Hopefully Mahomes can get something done here for my fantasy purposes,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: because he is my fantasy quarterback.
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: In my main league. But yeah, I'm gonna lean to.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs plus the points there Sunday Night Packers Cowboys
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: in the Michael Parsons Bowl. Here, it looks like BYU
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: does have the lead here in the fourth now, man,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: so Nate, you might be able to get this one
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: here on the BYU money line. You got it at
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: a good price. Man. Maybe BYU will win and not
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: cover the pregame number there, so we'll both be right.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: But I don't have anything rioting on this rule. I
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: didn't use Colorado. I just said Colorado is my lean.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I didn't use it as like a pick in any
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: of my money pick thems or anything like that. I
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: think if ESPN as the game in the pick them game,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: I did pick Colorado plus the points in that game, though,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: But that's just like small whatever, like just you know
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: with friends. Pretty much, Packers are up from four and
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: a half to six and a half in the Michael
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Parsons Ball on Sunday Night. Packers Cowboys. Money's coming in
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: on the Packers, and it looks like it's gonna get
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: to seven in this game. But the Packers are also
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: extremely public eighty nine percent of tickets, ninety percent of
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: the cash right now. But I think the cash once
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: it hit seven, I think you might see money start
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Cowboys because I think in some cases,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: I think you might this might be a setup, actually, man,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: because the professional better is what they might be doing
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: is they might be coming in at the lower limits
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: knowing that when the public comes in and plays this game,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be only coming in on the Packers side
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: here because the Cowboys just look so bad. So it
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of a setup where the
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: professionals just want this to get to seven so they
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: can actually come in and hammer the seven. And you'll
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: know if that's the case if it gets to seven
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: and it really starts dropping. But I say, if you
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: like the Cowboys, you can just wait on this until
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: you see the seven. I think you will see the
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: seven at some point come up. I don't know if
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: we'll get to seven and a half, but I think
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: it is going to get to the seven because the
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: juice is loose. The juice is coming. OJ's not playing
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: in this game, he's dead, but the juice is loose
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: as far as on the six and a half there.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: I also do lean to the Cowboys in this game,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: as ridiculous as that sounds. You know, my contrarianism coming
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: into play, especially in these uh primetime dude, primetime anti
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: public home underdogs used to be like the absolute bread
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: and butter man. They used to cover it like a
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: ridiculous rate. But the oddsmakers know that now, so you
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: don't get as good of a number on that home
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: underdog now. But in this case, getting a touchdown seems
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: pretty solid with the Cowboys man totals down for forty
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: nine to forty six and a half with eighty three
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on the over only sixty two
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on the over, so the money's coming
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: in on the under kind of signally that it's not.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: Gonna be that high scoring of a game.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Packers have the better defense and the Cowboys probably have
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: the better offense of the two, which I know sounds
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: ridiculous because the Cowboys kind of suck. The Cowboys are,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: but they're mostly They mostly suck on defense. That's where
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: their suckage is. They did lose seeding Lamb. He's gonna
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: be out for about three weeks with whatever happened. It
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: looked pretty bad some like leg injury or whatever it was.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: And then I don't know why, like they forced him
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: to come back into the game, which kind of affected
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: something in that game. But the Cowboys are gonna lose
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: the game anyway. But I don't know. It was a
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: little bit of a weird thing where they put him
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: back out there even though they knew that he couldn't
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: even walk on that leg. I don't know what that
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: was where they put him out there for one play
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: and it kind of affected I think what the Cowboys
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: were able to do in that game. I forget exactly
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: what it was. I saw something on Twitter about it.
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: It was weird.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: But the Cowboys are coming up that ugly loss. Man
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: to the Bear, Yeah to the Bears. I don't really
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: think that losing Lamb is going to affect the line
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: that much.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, they still have other weapons on this offense.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Man. They did get pickings over the offseason. They got
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: some other wide receivers that have some experience that are
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Prescott's still leading them. I mean, They're rushing
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: attack has actually been able to do some things. So
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: they have Javanti Williams there now from Denver. So Cowboys
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: offense is okay. Their defense is just terrible. But you're
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: asking for the Packers, the team with the better defense,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: to lay it on the points on the road. I'm
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: not so sure about that. Of course, we do know
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: the Packers are coming off a loss themselves. You could
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: argue they're in a bounce back spot here because they're
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: coming off that loss to the Cleveland Browns, where we
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: know I gave out Cleveland on the show obviously for
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: a reason. I thought it was a bad spot for
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: the Packers. Thought it was a sandwich spot. They're coming
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: up that big primetime win off of two big wins
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: off of Detroit M Washington, having extra time off. I
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: didn't they helped them in that case, and I think
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: they were looking ahead to this game with Dallas Man
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: so Green Bay. Yeah, I guess arguably in a bounced
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: back spot because they did lose to Cleveland, but it
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: is a second straight road game, and Dallas is probably
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: in the bigger bounced back spot because they look so
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: bad against Chicago there. So I think Dallas is gonna
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: show up here they at least want to know. At home.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: So far, they beat the Giants who almost losing to them,
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: and I know Russell Wilson looked awesome in that game
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: against them, so Jordan Love should do well in this
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: game against the Dallas defense. But even so, I'm gonna
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: still lean to Dallas. And I think the Michael Parsons
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: thing is gonna come into play too, where everybody's just
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: talked about that trade being like, oh my god, Dallas
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: gave up their best defensive player. So green Bay won
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: that trade like big time, but I'm not sure if
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: they necessarily did. I know Dallas could use a good
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: pass rusher like him right now, but Michael Parsons is
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit past his prime. I know he's out
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: there making an impact with Green Bay a little bit there,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: but I think he's his back is still messed up.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: He's gotta get like epidurals before every game or whatever
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: to get out there play through the pain. And Dallas
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: did get like a defensive tackle from green Bay that
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: is pretty solid, so they can at least kind of
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: stifle the run. And green Bay is still also a
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: team that's going to try to run the ball at you.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: They do that a lot on offense as well, so
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: green Bay kind of that more style, that style of
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: offense where they don't let you up offensively. So again,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: could be a low scoring game for that reason too,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: because green Bay does actually want to kind of play
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: more physical, run the ball a bit more balanced attack,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: and play defense, so that is kind of what they
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: want to do.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think people are overvaluing the Parsons thing.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: I think the Parsons thing is not going to really
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: impact the line at all, So I would lean to
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys in that one not going to be a play.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: And then we have two Monday night games.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: Which I hate this dude, the NFL there, why are
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: they changing all this shit? Man? You hat more and
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: more Europe games, Brazil games now, and now you have
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Monday night doubleheaders happening all the time and it's not
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: even a double head are gonna be more this year
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: than any other year, and it's not even a double
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: header really, it's two games that are competing with each
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: other and guess which game people are gonna watch, man,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Jets versus Miami or Bengals against Denver. I wonder which
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: one of those games people are gonna watch. Although Cincinnati
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't have Joe Burrow, so even that game is ass now.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: So this is this is a great Monday night game. Man,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: this is a great Monday night line up here. Jets
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: at Miami. I mean this is ridiculous. Both teams are
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: owned three. One of these teams is gonna start own four.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Miami in this one. Man, Miami,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I think just because they have more time off here.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I know they've looked terrible so far. Their defense is
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: not good. Yeah, the Jets probably have the better defense,
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: but the Jets defense hasn't looked very good so far either. Man, Miami,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: McDaniel's still fighting for his job because I don't think
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: he's been fired yet, because they did at least cover
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo last week on Thursday. But that doesn't mean
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: at least Miami does have extra time off. So starting
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: own three and I have the extra time off that
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: can actually help you a little bit. Even though I
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: know they played ish against Buffalo there, I think having
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: that extra time off is a good thing. So I
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: think Miami will be able to use that extra time
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: off to prepare after this game, prepare something here. As
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: far as the weather is concerned, it will be a
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: night game, but it's gonna be hot eighty four degrees,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: So the Dolphins, I don't know if they can sweat
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the Jets out sweat the Jets because the Jets are
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: not a what weather team really. The Jets coming off
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: a close game against Tampa bay Man, so I know
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: people are gonna look and see both teams lost to Buffalo.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna really take that much away
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: from that as far as the public is concerned. I mean,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: it looks probably worse for the Jets in that case
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: because the Jets lost at home. But remember Justin Fields
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: went out of that game with a concussion, So I
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: lost with the Jets on that game. I've given out
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the Jets as a play all three weeks so far,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: and those players have gone two to one, so I'll
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: take it. But the Jets are coming off kind of
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: a heartbreaking loss. Man, they had the win. I think
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: made a huge comeback against Tampa in a huge effort
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: there on Sunday and almost one, so I think that
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: puts the Jets in a worse spot, although they are
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: getting to stay in Florida, So I don't know if
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: the Jets came back home or if they just stayed
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: in Florida. It would be better for them if they
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: just stayed in Florida. So that's the one maybe advantage
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: they have is that they're staying in Florida. But of
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: course Miami is the home team here, so Miami used
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: to returning back to Florida obviously, but the Jets may
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: have less of a travel concern if they stayed in
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: Florida because they're just going to be traveling within the state.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: But I like Miami just because they have the extra
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: time off.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: The Jets are coming up that tougher game, and it
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: looks like Justin Fields is going to play in this game.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: I think he cleared concussion protocol, or maybe he's still
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: waiting on that, but I think he's practiced all week
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: and we have until Monday to figure that out. But
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Justin Fields is playing. It looks like
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: he's definitely trending towards playing in this game. So if
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: that's the case, I like Miami even more actually, because
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: the line might actually drop a little bit on Miami,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: so you might actually get a little bit more value
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: on Miami. Wance Can confirmed that that Justin Fields is
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: gonna play in this game. But I talked about this.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: It's the reverse injured player spot right where when the
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: team gets their starting quarterback back, sometimes the team will
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: take their foot off the gas a little bit. They'll
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: step back a little bit, even though I know an
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: own three team can't really do that. But it also
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: could be kind of a chemistry issue because Justin Fields
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: is still new to the Jets, so him coming back
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: into the lineup, they gotta get used to him being
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: in there again.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of a problem too.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: The Jets have been okay with Tyrod Taylor in there,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: so I think if Fields comes back, it actually kind
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: of throws another wrench into what the Jets are gonna
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: try to do here. It's gonna they're gonna have to
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: try to regain their chemistry. So I do lean to Miami.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: They're up from two and a half to two and
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: a half with juice here. Take it sixty six percent
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: the cash on them if you want Miami. I don't
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: know if you should wait because if Fields is gonna
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: be an, if it's announced that he's gonna play, you'll
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: probably get a better number on Miami. But you know,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: we want to make sure you don't have to lay
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: three with Miami. If you want Miami, you gotta wait
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: lay at least to an hour half or less. You
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: could go money line with Miami if you want to
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: do it that way. But just throwing out some ideas there.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: And then the second Monday night game, which was supposed
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: to be a really good game Bengals Broncos. Now we
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: don't have Joe Burrow here. We have Jake Browning and
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: he looked horrible last week. The Broncos looked pretty good
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: in a loss, though, So I'm gonna probably lean to
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati in this game. And the Broncos they played some
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: tough games last couple of weeks on the road Indianapolis
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: kind of a heartbreaking loss where they lost on that
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: weird leverage call which I picked Indianapolis in the game.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: And I'm a Colts fan, so I'm just gonna be like, yeah,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I'll just you know, I'll just accept that call there.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: But it probably, I don't know, it probably was kind
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: of a bullshit call. Probably was not the right call,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: giving Indy the extra shot at the field going giving
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: them five extra yards or whatever it is. Maybe it's
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: more than that for leverage. I don't know. But then
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: Denver last week they had a huge game against the
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Chargers man that was a big division game in Denver
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: had the lead in that game and blew the lead
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: close to the end of that game and lost the game.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: That is a brutal loss for Denver. And now they're
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: coming home and they're facing this Jake Browning led Cincinnati teams.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: They don't get to face Joe Burrow. Cincinnati, by the way,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: did lose late in the season. I believe. Did they lose, No,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: they won. I think they won an overtime. I guess
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: against They had a late game late last season against
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Denver when Cincinnati was trying to make the playoffs. I
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: think Cincinnati won that game in overtime at Cincinnati. So
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: actually it's a little bit of revenge for Denver here
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: if they care about that. But they want to get
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: revenge against Joe Burrow, I think so. I think Denver
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: might take this Browning offense very lightly after they looked
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: so bad last week. Denver still might be hung over
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: coming up that huge divisional game, and they do have
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles up next to so
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: it almost kind of looks like a sandwich spot here man,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: which it probably would not be if it was a
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow game.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: I know it's a Monday night game at.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: Home, but if you're gonna overlook an opponent, I think
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be something like this where Cincinnati doesn't have
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: their starting quarterback and they just got annihilated against Minnesota.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: But I showed you that part of the reason why
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: they lost. I know they got clobbern on the stats too,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: but Minnesota completely outgained though, but Cincinnati it was worse
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: on the score more than it actually was statistically because
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: they had five turnovers in the game. So Cincinnati they
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: could definitely clean that type of thing up. I know
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: going to Mile High is not that easy. It is
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game for them, but I would
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: lean to Cincinnati. Plus the points in this one. Broncos
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: are very public, but has gone through the key number.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: They're off from six to seven and a half now
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent. Takete excusing ninety three percent of the
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: cash on the Broncos. We'll see how the market kind
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: of plays out as far as when it gets closer
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: to game time there on Monday night. But right now,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Bengals and that one.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: As absurd as that sounds, I know all my stuff
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: is absurd. Man, Let's get to the best bets here.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: That was the breakdown segment. I got four plays here,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: and you're gonna hate them all, man, first one up
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: is gonna be probably the worst one of them. All.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: You knew I was gonna do with this New York
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Giants plus six and a half, although I'd probably wait
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: on this just to see if you can get a
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: seven because the Chargers are gonna be really public.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Uh So it's possible that you get the seven, and
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: by waiting you're not really losing anything. You'll still be
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: able to get a six and a half, most likely
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: at worse or a six versus six and a half
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: is not that much of a difference. Chargers are the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: hype team right now and then now three and zero,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: everybody's talking about Chargers going to the Super Bowl. But
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad spot for the Chargers.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Eighty nine percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: on them. They're having to go to the East Coast.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: I know I talked about East Coast early game. It
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter as much as like an East Coast team
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: having to go all the way out west and playing
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: a late game where they're gonna be fatigued at the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: end of the day. Like this game being at like
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: ten Eastern Pacific time isn't as bad because you get up,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: you know, you wake up and you get ready for it,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: and you're kind of ready to go. But it's still
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: not a good spot for the Chargers because it's one
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: of those games. Remember, they're coming off much bigger games
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: and this is a road out of conference game that
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: really is not gonna.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Matter that much.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: So I think this is a bad spot for the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Chargers completely. I mean, they started the season beating every
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: single team in their division, so that gives them a
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: huge leg up over their entire division, and they already
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: have like tiebreaker, like they're already they already have this
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: eyebreaker against every team in their division right now, and
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: they're two games ahead of every team in their division
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: right now. So the Chargers already gave themselves pad and
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: beating the Chiefs in Brazil. Then they had to go
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: to Las Vegas on Monday night beat the Ravens. Then
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: they came back home and they had a huge game
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: against Denver and they overcame Denver late in the game.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Now they're going to travel to the East Coast for
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: the first time this year, and they can do have
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: Washington up next to and that's a big game. If
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Washington has a Jane Daniels back, that's.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: Gonna be a bigger game too.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: I do not think the Charge going to really pay
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: that much attention to the Giants here, so I'll take
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: the points with the Giants. Everybody just saw the Giants
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: look really about on Sunday night, and I know that
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: means the Giants have a little bit less prep time here.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: But when a team looks really bad on primetime, especially offensively,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: and the public wants nothing to do with them offensively
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: they are offensive, that's the time to go and jump
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: on that team. Man. And of course we have a
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: little bit of a potential spark here for the Giants two,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: which I really love. So I hope, I'm not hoping.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not factory in my bias too much here. I
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: don't think I am, because I think it's a bad
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: spot for the Chargers. Man, But Jackson Dart is going
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: to be making his first NFL start here. Man. You
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: know me, I'm on record saying that I think Dart
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: was the best quarterback in the draft class this year.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Kim Ward's not really looking that good so far. So
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: let's see what Dart can do. Man. He looked good
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: in preseason. He understands the system. He's been studying the game.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: If you see him, like on the sidelines, he's been
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: like repeating the quarterbacks cadence what, listening to them on
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: the headsets and whatever. Dart, I think he's gonna show
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: some things, man. And he adds another dimension to this
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: offense that is gonna be a little bit tougher to
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: defend against, which Russell Wilson does not have, which is mobility. Man.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: I mean Russell Wilson, he had it earlier in his career.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: He definitely doesn't anymore at this age. Jackson Dart is
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to do things with his legs. Man.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: So the Chargers are gonna have to try to game
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: plan for this, and the Chargers probably won't really know
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: exactly what the Giants are even gonna do. So I
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: think that gives the Giants a little bit of an
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: extra edge here, because I mean, how could their offense
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: possibly be worse than it was with Russell Wilson out there.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, Wilson is just so bad, Like, there's no
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: way this is a downgrade. You're getting some youth in there,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: You're getting some spark in there. I know the Giants
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: did also lose Tracy, they're running back, so they're gonna
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: go with Scataboo. So it's white boys summertime late. I know,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: summer just ended, but summer's not gonna be over for
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: a couple more weeks. Man, Because Scataboo saw his shadow
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: or whatever Cam saw his shadowboo, whatever you want to say, Man,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: I like him. I think Skataboo had some like weird
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: wrinkles to the offense too, So I think the Chargers
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: are not really gonna know what's a game plan for either.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: So I think that helps the Giants as well. The
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Chargers are a possession type of team. Man. Still, even
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: though their offense has been a little bit better this year,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: I know they're letting justin Herbert throw the ball more
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: than they did last year because he was coming off
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: an injury last year, so he is throwing the ballmore
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: this year. But still this Chargers offense, it's still an
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: offense that relies on maintaining possession. They don't really outscore
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: opponents by that much. So as long as the Giants
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: can put up some points here and stay within this game,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: I think they could do it. Man, and the Giants
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: defense is still not that bad, especially their front seven.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: And we know the Chargers did.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: Just lose Naji Harris, but they're using what's their other
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: young running backs name. I always forget what his name is.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: I call him O D a whole Hopefully he's not
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: gonna O D. But it would be ridiculous if he did.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, then then his his nickname would really it
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: would really be an appropriate nickname. But they're gonna use him.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna run the ball a lot. The
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Giants can actually stop the run. Uh So that is
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: a decent thing for the Giants as well. Total drop
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: from forty five and a half to forty three and
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: a half, sixty tickets eighty two percent of the cash
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: in the over. But I think because the line dropped
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: that significantly. I think that was probably a real move,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: although I don't know. We just see money coming back
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: in on the over at this point. But it's a
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: pretty low total. So if it's a lower scoring game,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: you know, taking the points matters even more. So we
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: will go with the Giants. And the other thing about
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: this game is it's a three and oh team against
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: an own three team, And you know I talked about
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: that earlier in the show getting point Getting points with
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: the own three team against a three and oh team
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: in week four is a pretty good proposition. It hits
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: at like above the rate that you need to profit
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: at least I'm pretty sure historically. So we're gonna go
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: with it. Giants, I know, you know me with these
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: ugly dogs. Man, you saw what I did last week.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: We had a three and oh sweep last week with
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, the Giants and the excuse the Panthers, the Jets.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: I don't want to get ahead of myself, your Panthers, Jets.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: And what was the other one that we had last week?
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: It was something real oh the Browns, of course, Yeah,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: it was real ugly. All right, Next up, we're gonna
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: throw a favorite into the mix New England minus five
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: and a half. I know we're playing on a one
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: win team. We're gonna lay the points here. I like it. Man.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: It looks like the money's kind of disagreeing with it
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: right now. Was agreeing with it before, but I like
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: it right now. Man. Should I wait? Should I not
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: give it out as a play? I don't know because
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: the market read just changed, But now, fuck it, let's
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: go with it. Patriots are down from five and a
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: half to five here, sixty one percent taket sixty percent
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: of the cash. They were a little bit public, which
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: kind of surprises me because they have not looked good
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: so far. They're trying to adapt to the new Varibel
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: system and the problem with the Vrabel says, well, really
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: with the Josh McDaniels system is that it's very complex,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: so it takes a while to learn it. And I
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: guess this Patriots offense might not be totally learning it.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: But if you see what the Patriots did last week,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: they're not traveling by the way, they're staying at home.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: They lost last week.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: But if you see what happened in this game, which
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: I believe I showed you earlier in the Show. The
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Patriots out gained Pittsburgh three sixty nine to two three,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: but they lost the turnover battle five to ones. They're
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: minus four and turnovers. They had way more yards, they
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: had way more first downs, they had the time of
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: possession victory as well, so they pretty much won the game.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: They dominated the game statistically, and they've lost because they
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: turned the ball over constantly. So that is something that
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: you can clean up, man, So I think that's making
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: the Patriots look a little bit worse than they actually are,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: so coming into this game, I think they are going
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: to be stepping up here. They're gonna try to fix
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: some things to step up for this game. Another good
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: thing for New England, you know, if their offense isn't
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: really moving along right now, is that they're facing a
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: really bad Carolina defense here. I know, Carolina sevens is
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: not that bad so far, giving up twenty six to
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and then zero last week.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: But this is part of the handicap too, man.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Carolina in their only home game this year, I gave
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: them out on the show last week, they beat Atlanta
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: thirty to nothing, and I told you Atlanta was in
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: a terrible spot in that game because Atlanta had won
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: that big game on a Sunday night in the National
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: College Championship rematch between Pennix and JJ McCarthy, And I
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: know JJ McCarthy got hurt in the game, but Penix
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: got his revenge in that game. Then they had to
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: go out on the road and face this Carolina team,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: which is not very good, not very good, not a
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: team that really is gonna draw your focus. And Atlanta
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: had a bigger game up this week against Washington, So
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a really bad spot for Atlanta. Obviously,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: I did not expect a thirty to nothing win for
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, But if you look at what happened in
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: this game, Atlanta outgained the Panthers three thirty two to
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: two twenty four. They lost the turnover battle three to
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: one there minus two of turnovers. But Atlanta had more
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: than one hundred more yards of offense in Carolina, And
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: so this Carolina offense didn't even do anything in the game.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: They were actually really pretty pathetic in the game. So
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: the final score was not indicative of what happened in
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: that game really at all. It was really just kind
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: of the turnovers just kind of threw the game off
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So it's a very misleading final result. So
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: Carolina looked way better than they actually are. They have
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: to travel up to New England and they do have well,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: they don't have a big game up next, so they
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: do have to travel to New England. It's a third
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: road game in their first four weeks, which is also
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: not really an easy spot to be and it's just
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of travel to have to deal with. And
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: they're ow and two on the road so far, and
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: they've lost by at least five points in both road games.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna go with New England.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: In that one. Man, that's probably my least favorite of
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: these four, though I don't know. I don't know if
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: I should continue to give it out, but we're gonna
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: do it. Next up, we're gonna go This line has
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: moved a little bit, and I think it's because of
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: the quarterback news. We're also gonna go with that Lanta
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. You might not be able
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: to get this number anymore either. It flipped from Atlanta
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half earlier in the week to
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: the minus one and a half. Here, fifty three percent
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: of tickets, seventy percent of the cash on the Falcons,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: so the money is coming in on the Falcons here.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, I forgot to talk about
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: the look aheads, like what was the line before what
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: happened last week? By the way, so I'll just I'll
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: throw that out real quick. We had the Patriots were
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: the same number five and a half, Lions were the
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: same number at ten, Chargers were only five and a half,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: so that line has moved. Bills are fourteen and a half.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: So this is what the lines were on these games
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: before last week's games were played, so you can see
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: like what the overreactions were. Texans were six and a half,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: so that's basically the same. The Bills did move up
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Like I said, Washington was minus one
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: and a half in this game, but I think that
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: was because we didn't know who the quarterback was gonna
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: be for Washington. Yet. The Eagles are two and a half,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: which is about what they are. The Rams were five,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: which is kind of interesting. Niners are three, Ravens two
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: and a half. A lot of these are just basically
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: the same. Raiders are minus one and a half. Packers
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: were only four and a half, so there was definitely
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: a big adjustment on the Packers Dolphins two and a
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: half Broncos six and a half. So those lines didn't
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: move that much, but there was definitely an adjustment on
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: the Packers, man, so I think you are getting live
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: value on that. That was the biggest move just based
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: off of last week's results, just because Dallas, I guess,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: looked so bad and I guess factory he's seeding Lamb's injury.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: But seeding Lamb is not even worth a full point
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: though on a line, so I think it was mostly
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: just because they looked bad against the Bears. But anyway,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: back to Atlanta here, I know we couldn't We didn't
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: get the best number on this. Maybe I should have
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: just talked about in the middle of the week and
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: said get on this now. But the line moved I
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: think from the Falcons plus two and a half to
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half here because Washington, we didn't
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: know their quarterback was gonna be and it is going
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: to be Marcus Mariota again, which is why the Falcons
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: are now flipped to that favorite there. I know Mariota,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: he was on the Falcons a couple of years ago,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: but I don't think that matters that much man. I
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: know he'll get to go back out there and play
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: against his former team, and I don't think he got
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: to play in the game last year against the Falcons,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: which by the way, I had the Falcons in that
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: game last year. Pennix was in the game. It was
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: late in the season, Falcons win to Washington. It was
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Washington. I had the Falcons plus
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: I think four and a half. I gave it out.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: It was one of my bets on the show, and
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: the Falcons sent the game into overtime.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: They're winning a lot of that game.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: It went into overtime and they wound up losing and
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: not covering, which was just brutal. But that doesn't mean
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: at least that it's a little bit of maybe a
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: little extra revenge mode of here for Penix because he
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: was in that game and it was his best road game.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: He hasn't played that well on the road, but he
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: has been better at home tho. Although I think he
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: did win on the road a couple weeks ago, right
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota, I believe I'm not mistaken. But that's also
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: a closed stadium, so maybe he just plays better in
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: closed stadiums. But he played pretty well in that Washington game.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: This Washington defense is not that good, so the Falcons
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: should be able to take advantage of it. I think
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: the Falcons actually have the better defense here. I'm not
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: sold on the Washington defense at all. The money is
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Falcons, and I don't think.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: It was just a money move.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: Like I said, on the line here, moving the line,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: but it's still kind of just in pick the winner territory. Obviously,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: getting points is better than laying them. But I think
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: at one and a half it's still fine. I mean
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: one and a half, two whatever. If you want to
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: go money line on the Falcons, I think that's fine
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: as well. I just I don't like Washington in the spot.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Man Washington. It's their second game in the injured player
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: theory now, so they had the first game in the
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: injured player spot, and they looked really good last week.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: Although I told you, they did still give up a
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: lot of yards to the Raiders and the game was
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: actually closer statistically than the final was. So Washington looked
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than they actually were. But that
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: was their first game without Jaydon Daniels, so Marcus Mariota
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: got in there. The teams stepped up their level of
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: play here, man, and now they have to go on
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: the road and their own one on the road so far,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: they got to face at Landa. They might not totally
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: pay attention to this Atlanta team right now, who's just
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: kind of struggling right now.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: And Atlanta looks so bad last week.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: Man, so it's really just kind of fading what happened
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: last week. Man, So we're gonna go with Atlanta here.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: I know Washington does have the three to zero Chargers
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: up next too, so I don't know if that's really
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be any cost for like a look ahead, but
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I like Atlanta in this one. Man. It's the second
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: game again with the injured player spot. So a lot
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: of times after the team really steps up their game
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: in that first game without that star player, they take
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: a step back in the next game, man, because they
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: put in all that effort in that first game, they
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: don't put it in as big of an effort the
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: next time.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna go with Atlanta.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: And again, I think playing on Atlanta is also part
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: of this handicap because they got shut out last week,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: and like teams never get shut out in the NFL, now.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: So it's just so bad that it's like that team
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: has to bounce back after a game like that, not
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: only shut out, but shut out by one of the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: worst teams, like one of the worst defenses in football.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: So it's got to be Atlanta in that one BYU
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: just sealed it, yep, and Colorado's still covered. So so
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: we're all, uh, we all get our way in that one.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: And then finally we're gonna go with the Colts plus
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: three and a half. And I'm as I kind of
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: talked these three. I'm not even sure I love all
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: of these. I don't know why I have four plays
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: this week, to be honest, Like most of these are
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: just kind of fading what happened last week. This is
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for the Rams, though. We're gonna take
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: the Colts in this one.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: I said the look ahead on this one was five.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: It is. You can see it here. I think it
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: opened this week at five as well, and it got
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: drilled down to three and a half, sixty six percent
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: taket sixty two percent of the cash on the Rams,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: so the Rams are public with less of the money
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: on them. So even though the Colts are three and
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: zero the public still wants the Rams. The public is
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: still not really buying the Colts because what have they
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: done so far. I mean they beat They beat the
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: Dolphins and the and the Titans for two of their wins.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: So people are not really sold on the Colts right now.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: But that Colts offense he is moving along with Daniel
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: Jones there, man, He's got a a lot of talent
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: around him. Jonathan Taylor stud he's on my fantasy team.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: Pittman there.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: They got some weapons on that offense, man. But this
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: is really a play against the Rams in this one
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: more than it is anything else. I know, Indianapolis has
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: to go to the Pacific Coast, but at least it's
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: not a late night game. It is a roofed stadium,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: and the Rams don't tend to have that good of
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: a home field advantage out there, either, so take that
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: into account. The LA fans like, for whatever reason, it
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: seems like Rams chargers. They just don't get a huge
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: home field advantage there for whatever reason. The Colts actually
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: travel decently, so hopefully it happens here. I know they're
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: going to the Pacific Coast, but yeah, it's a roof stadium.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: I think they can play well in the stadium Indianapolis. Yeah,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: they're coming off that easy win over Tennessee. It is
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game, but I think momentum my
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: carrying this one. The publish is not going to be
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: impressed with when India has done so far, and they
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: basically think that they should have lost that game against Denver,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: which they only won on the leverage call. So the
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: publish is not impressed with what the Colts have done
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: so far, the more impressed with the Rams. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: the Los Vigers are basically saying the Rams are the
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: better team here slightly the Rams. I mean, what did
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: they do though? They beat Tennessee on the road, just
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: like Indy did. They beat Houston at home in Week one,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: and that Houston offense is just injured. But yeah, then
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: the Rams did play well against Philly last week, and
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: that is part of this handicap.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: That was a huge game for the Rams.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: Man they had to go out to Philly, so the
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: Rams are having to travel back to the back to
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast as well here from the East Coast,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: So the Rams are having to travel cross country this
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: week as well, So that's not that easy to do.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: And they're coming off such a brutal loss, man, like
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: they had that game against Philly. As I pointed out,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: that was a huge revenge game for the Rams because
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: they lost at Philly in the playoffs last year, so
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: big time revenge facing the Super Bowl champions. They had
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: the game in hand, they were winning twenty six to seven.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: Pretty late in the game, they blew the lead and
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: then they still had the chance to win at the
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: end of the game winning field goal, and then what
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: happened and returned for a touchdown the other way, and
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: they lose the game, absolutely brutal way to lose. And
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: now they have to return home off of that to
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: face an out of conference team, and then what do
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: they have to do after this? They have to turn
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: around and play the forty nine ers on Thursday night
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: primetime in four days. That is a huge divisional matchup there.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: So I think this Colts game matters a lot less
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: than those other two.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: I think this is a sandwich spot.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: And they do actually have Baltimore coming up after that too,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: but it's surrounded by much, much bigger games for them. Man,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: this game is not gonna really matter as much to
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: them against the Colts so we will take the Colts
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: plus the points, and who knows, man, maybe my Indian
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: out those Colts will actually start the season four and
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: oh that would be absolutely absurd if it happens. But
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Indy in that game, and that's
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Ana, what's up? Thanks for hanging out, yep,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: I hope everybody wins. That's gonna do it for me here, man,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: the play is one more time again, you know me.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: It's always ridiculously ugly with me. We're gonna go with
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: the Giants plus six and a half. Although I said,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: wait on that, just to see if you can get
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: a seven. Probably we won't, but we'll see New England
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: minus five and a half. You might even get five
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: on that. I mean, it's a dead number, so it
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. But maybe Atlanta minus one and a
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: half or if you want to go money line on that.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: I wish I got it a plus two and a
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: half earlier in the week, but I like Atlanta on
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: that one. And then the Colts plus three and a half,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: so we still at least get the key number there,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: even though I know it dropped from five. A four
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: and a half would have been better, but three and
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: a half three is a much more key number, at
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: least in football.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: So that's gonna do it.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: Learn it Toad on Twitter, Learn it Tode on Instagram. Yeah,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: better off dead, like subscribe to the channel here. Review
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: on iTunes and the Apple man, I mean yeah, on
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: Apple iTunes and the Spotify. Excuse me, give me the
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: reviews on there. That helps me out. Covered in you
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: because my yuke channel on YouTube, so you can check
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: that out too. Want to get some more subscribers on there,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: and then Patreon dot com slash learn to toad and
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: you can get some bonus yuke content there. Maybe I
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: should do some other bonus stuff. I need some more ideas,
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: maybe some other bonus dreams. Tomorrow morning, I'll be live again.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the last day of baseball. We'll
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: see what happens. Man, we know which teams are in
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: and which are out at this point, I think he said,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: maybe not in the nationally, but in the American League.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: Houston is the team that is out. Houston is not
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: gonna make the playoffs, and Cleveland is in. Detroit is
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: in because they beat my Red Sox, say, and the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are in. I don't know what the how
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: the shuffling is gonna pan out as far as which
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: seed each one of those teams is, but yeah, it's insane,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: so we'll we'll see what winds up happening.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: But I will have to talk to Clint because he
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: said he wanted to come back and do Bald and
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: talk about the playoffs structure here because both of our
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna be in the playoffs now, so we'll
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: see what happens. Man. He's a Padres fan, I'm a
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: Red Sox fan. I don't think either one is gonna
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: make the World Series though, unfortunately, so we will see.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll be back tomorrow morning to talk baseball
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: and WNBA playoffs continuing as well, and we'll do the
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: final lot. I guess NFL market read as well. But
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: hopefully we continue winning. Man. We still have a winning
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: day today, so I'm still happy about that. It just
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: looked like it was gonna be so so good, and
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: that Florida Atlantic one just kind of it angers me. Man.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: We should have been five and one today and I
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: have them in my pick six and pick seven and whatever,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: but my best bet in one of them because I'm
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: in the Pick six that I'm in, which is on
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: splash Sports. Really big field there, so it's not likely
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: I'm going to land in the money, but who knows.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: In that one, you pick one best bet that counts
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: for double accounts for two picks each week. And my
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: best bet has won every week except for week one.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: So and it was Iowa today, so we'll see what
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: I'm doing okay in that game, so hopefully it continues.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: We'll see, man.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: And the other one doesn't have a best bet part
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: of it, but the other one, I just the other
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: one has one additional pick that you have to throw
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: in there, and I think I might have lost my
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: additional pick.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: It actually might have been San Jose.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: State though, so maybe I actually got it. I forget
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: what I added, but that's to do it for me
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: for now, man, So I'll be back in the morning. Peace.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out guys. M