Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Tether Selling Bitcoin?🔥Crypto Market Update

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Tether Selling Bitcoin?🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Let's get into the possibility of Tether selling all their bitcoin.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: What does that mean for the market. I'll break it
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: down for you. My name is Paul Berre. Welcome back
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: in the tech path. I want to thank our sponsor
• 0:15
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• 0:17
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• 0:43
  Speaker 1: we've got a couple of a little bit of a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: battle going on right now between JP Morgan and Tether.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Tether CEOs is a little bit salty with the JP
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Morgan analysts, mainly because they were discounting as company, but
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: they were talking about some things within this that if
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: they want to do some business here, they're gonna have
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: seller bitcoin. This is the most extreme scenario. JP Morgan
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: discounts the fact that Tether's group equity is over twenty
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: billion on their liquid assets and is generated more than
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: one point two in profits, so this would be Adapting
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: to new regulations would be very straightforward for the company.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: So their analysts are estimating that about only sixty six
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to eighty three percent of Tether's reserves currently comply with
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: the US stable coin regulation. So if they need to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: come on sure, most likely they're going to have to
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: be able to go into US securities more often. So
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: this could put a little pressure, But at the same time,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: this is fud that we've seen quite a bit before.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Tether analysts say that JP Morgan does not even have
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: enough bitcoin. Their situation, though, is a little bit different
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: versus Tether, where they own almost eight billion in bitcoin
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: versus JP Morgan around a million. If you look at
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: this article right here, JP Morgan is increasing their crypto
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: holdings via ETFs, but they're staying cautious, which is expected,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: especially understanding j or JP Morgan and Jamie Diamond, who's
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: not been a big fan of bitcoin in general, but
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: their exposure to bitcoin right now is through ETFs, not
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: even you know, a million bucks, so really negligent for
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: this major, major organization out there to not be exposed
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: to this asset is kind of crazy, but it is.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: They hold about thirty nine thousand worth of ethereum shares,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: again very very low overall other things that are happening
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: right now. If you look at the price of gold,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of people saying, all right, well, if we
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: continue to see the pressures on the market, including CPI, PPI,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: all of these numbers pushing, You've got the tariff concerns,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: and of course you've got the scenario of gold starting
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to get more vaults in there in terms of people
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: holding brings JP Morgan. Obviously the comics on gold is
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: going up, and of course the price of gold also
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: going up, so a lot of people concerned about that.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: When you look at the general market conditions right now
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: around inflation, which is the big factor here, gold could
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: be a leading indicator though for bitcoin, and that's the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: thing that we're looking at right now. The red line
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: there obviously gold. But you look at where bitcoin is
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: and holding is it a lagging or is this a
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: complete separation of the asset. Now granted We've seen times before.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: If you look back here in twenty twenty where gold skyrocketed,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin kind of went sideways for a while, and then
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: right around the end of twenty twenty, bitcoin skyrocketed and
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: started to overperform for a long period during that bull run,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: and then down, and then since then bitcoin and gold
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: has pretty much been somewhat locked step here even with
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the separation back here in mid twenty twenty four before
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: we saw the rise on bitcoin to it's all time high.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: So interesting statements right now, This gold will be I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: think a big factor. Gold I feel like is more
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  Speaker 1: locked at the hip right now with Bitcoin than even
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred. So all right, so
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: this could be when you look at inflation, this could
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: be the worst pivot in fed's history. And one of
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the things you have to look at is just the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: CPI's risen to a seven month high. PPI just hit
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: its highest since February twenty twenty three. So this is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: pretty hot when you look at the incoming So is
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: it a position right now where you have Donald Trump
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: saying we're going to get lower interest rates and now
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  Speaker 1: the FED probably backed into a corner to at least
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: be flat again, but possibly even raising rates. My question
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  Speaker 1: to you guys leash in comments down below, do you
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  Speaker 1: think if the FED comes in and raises rates on
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the next FOMC meeting, what kind of damage would that
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: do to the market. Let me know your thoughts on that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Let's go into a clip real quick. I want to
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: get into this one because this is where they actually
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: say the words that the Fed should hike. Take a look.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: You were not convinced that the inflation buggaboo was late
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  Speaker 1: to rest.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: I wasn't at all, and I think the only surprise
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  Speaker 2: to me was so many news outlets yesterday calling it
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  Speaker 2: a surprising update.
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  Speaker 1: There's no thing.
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  Speaker 2: As you said before to Rick, there was nothing surprising
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  Speaker 2: about it. My principle is very simple. If you double
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: the balance sheet at the same time the fiscal deficit
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  Speaker 2: is being increased it in twenty twenty twenty twenty one,
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  Speaker 2: and take interest rates down to zero, forget it. You
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: have created inflation. It is not a case of your
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: depending on housing versus non housing, and housing costs is
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: coming down eggs. Something else will pick up because there
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  Speaker 2: is a lot of liquidity. So there is nothing surprising,
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  Speaker 2: and I think the FED should react next month that
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: it's meeting by announcing a hike in.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: The interest rates next month, next.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Month, March nineteen never happen. They will not have.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: As it makes to much sense.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I think Trump blow a gas to present a blow
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: a gasket.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: If there is a recession, isn't there a possibility of
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: a recession in the next four years.
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  Speaker 3: I think there absolutely is a possibility in the next
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  Speaker 3: twelve months. I would say the possibility is around a
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent level, so it's it's not zero, but it's
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: certainly not our base case scenario. We're still seeing a
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: lot of resilience in the economy. Consumers are still spending,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: businesses are still investing, but we're losing momentum. They are
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: doing so at a noticeably slower pace. So the risk
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: is that we again continue to choke off positive growth,
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: and then the risk of recession rises as we look
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: out several years.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So a lot to unpack there a couple
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of things. Yes, we could be in a scenario where
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: we already are in kind of this pseudo recession, if,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: of course Poal comes in and actually raises rate sixt month,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I think that would be a pretty much a big
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: indicator that we've entered. Now. The point she was making
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: is that the economy is still strong. I still don't
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: see that. I'm seeing much more problems in the economy
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: right now. Obviously this is left over from the past administration.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Trump's going to have to fix this. It is going
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: to be a scenario that we have got to do.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if these tariffs are going to help,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: and I definitely don't know if we continue to see
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the pressure on businesses not knowing what the outcomes of
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the markets are going to be, that they're not going
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to hire and that's going to create joblessness, and that's
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: the problem that Chair Palell is going to have to
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: deal with. So with all that being said, you've got
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Bernstein now doubling down on Robinhood with their price target
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: after their crypto led record one billion in Q four revenue.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: This is insane, of course. Now remember this happened during
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: a good upswing in crypto overall, but being the estimated
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: of around nine hundred and forty four million after a
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: four hundred percent surge in crypto trading volume, this is
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  Speaker 1: big news for Robinhood. Question mark, guys, is whether or
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: not this holds through this bull market if in fact
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: we are still in a bull market. Everybody's asking that question.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: A couple other points here they were talking about Q
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: four election quarter, big crypto, and obviously we saw the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: high there in early December. Robin Hood now decisively turning
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: around to positive EPs. So this, I don't know, this
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: may be a little bit early for Robinhood to at
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: least to raise their expectations this early for those analysts.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a couple eclips from Vlad.
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  Speaker 1: He's talking about crypto being the big story. Take a look.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Q one has been strong so far. We've seen
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: the momentum continue, and you know, crypto has been a
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: big story. Obviously, it's done well since the election, and
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: our crypto revenues were up seven hundred percent year over year,
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: crypto volumes up over four hundred percent, but it was
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  Speaker 4: also a balanced quarter. I think one of the main
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: advantages of Robinhood as a platform for our crypto traders
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: is you can also trade options and equities and futures
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: alongside earning a high yield on your cash, and so
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: there's just many reasons why you would move your assets
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  Speaker 4: into Robinhood, and that drove net deposits to over fifty
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  Speaker 4: billion for the year, which was up a very large
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: amount over the previous year. So Crypto I think gets
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: the headline, but it was just a diversified quarter with
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: you know, now we have nine business lines generating over
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: one hundred million in annual revenue.
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  Speaker 1: That's been a good I think twenty four was a
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: really good year for Robin and showed on their stock price.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: It is a performance factor that I think we are
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: nearing a new kind of economic pressure that we haven't
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: seen before, and that is all of the Trump induced
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: pressure on the economy. If there would be one thing
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I think this is the thing that you have to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: consider for Trump if he does implement these tariffs. There's
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: only one alternative, and that is you pretty much have
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: to strip out taxes. So if you're going to gain
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: revenue in other ways, if Trump were to announce a
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: major tax hit in reference to the United States Americans,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: that would basically be maybe we wouldn't see federal income
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: tax in twenty twenty five something like that. That would
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: be a stimulus going forward. Now that would be the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: alternative to something like that, but it would put some
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: pressure on a lot of these companies. That's a question
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I think for Robinhood is can it hold? Can their
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: market hold during what we're seeing right now as the
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: market is today again back to where there's a lot
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: of uncertainty in the market. With all that being said,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: there's still some positive news out there, and the good
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: thing is is Solana. Of course meaws this is Jupiter
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: CEO has become the first major US business banking fintech
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: to enable USDC. Let me zoom in on that for
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: you guys off ramping on Solana to a business checking account.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: This is pretty big to me. This is huge because
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: this will start to possibly foster in two things. One
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: is the potential of more advanced businesses starting to use
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: these kind of tools and two dragging in the banking
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: industry into this Web three ecosystem going forward. So good
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: stuff there. And of course one more thing right here,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: we want more Jupe sol Their buybacks are starting on money,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: so fifty percent of all protocol fees are going to
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: be going toward buying Jupe, which is again just another
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: advantage for the Jupiter ecosystem out there for sure. So
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: that's positive. Other things that are hitting SEC and Binance
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: are now seeking a sixty day pause on their crypto case.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: That should be good in general because the SEC and
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Binance have not had a great you know relationship, and
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the fact they're pausing this could be a good indicator
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: for Binance going forward in terms of growth in the market.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: And then, last up, a couple of points here is
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: just in you know, this is we've seen already B
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: and B. This was a meme coin called broccoli. This
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: is the dog I think of CZ skyrocketed to four
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: and twenty million dollar market cap. I'm kind of curious
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: when you look at B and B versus Solana, when
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: in those kinds of ecosystems, which one do you think wins?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments down below. All right,
• 11:31
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