Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Lebanon's sovereignty paradox | feat. Bilal Saab

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Lebanon's sovereignty paradox | feat. Bilal Saab · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
• 0:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's Monday, September 28th, the multi-front war in the middle east is now 1,087 days old on your host, Jonathan Chanzer, welcome back to the FDD Morning Brief.
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if you've been reading the news lately, it would appear that everyone in their Bobby and maybe even their neighbor's sisters, boyfriends, cousin, three times removed.
• 0:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: His war in his really prime minister Benjamin Netzanyahu about the October 7th attacks back in 2023.
• 0:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: According to the latest, Egypt's Intel chief warned BB after two other warnings from his underlings to officials in the Israeli system, and that's not all the leader of the UAE.
• 0:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Also reportedly told BB that an attack was coming, and now there are leaks that BB asked NBC not to say anything, which makes it seem even more like a scandal.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it all got me thinking, you know, all of these reports have are extremely well timed.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And maybe just a little coordinated one month before the Israeli elections.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's all designed to tank Netanyahu and it just might look.
• 1:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: I carry no water for the Prime Minister.
• 1:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was in charge when the October 7 attacks took place back in 2023.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the block stops with him.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I call out politically motivated info ops when I see them by or beware.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: British authorities this weekend disrupted an apparent Iranian plot to bomb an air base in southwest England, used by the United States for strikes against Iran.
• 1:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Five suspects were arrested in multiple homes where evacuated the investigation is ongoing.
• 1:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: For now, thankfully, it appears that the threat has been neutralized.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sad to see Britain targeted in this way, but I still have a bone to pick with London.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: First, let's acknowledge the UK has long been a target of the Iranian regime.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: This attack should come as no surprise.
• 1:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sure, they may try to pin this on Trump's war against Iran, but the regime does not need an excuse.
• 2:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Second, where are the brits in this war, apart from providing some basing for US aircraft and shooting down Iranian projectiles at various points during the war?
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: The UK is not exactly bit a profile in courage.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Multiple international maritime waterways,
• 2:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: global oil markets are understrain the British military is among the few that can help that they won't.
• 2:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Finally, amidst all of this, the brits have been slapping Israel with sanctions for the actions of a few psychos in Judea and Samaria.
• 2:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: None of this has any bearing on Britain's national security.
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, foreign Secretary Ed Meliband met with Iranian foreign minister of us around
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Churchill is rolling over in his grave right now.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: This government is in London as a sharp as a bag of door knobs.
• 2:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Here's hoping this weekend's Florida attack was a wake up call.
• 2:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now for your headlines, headline one, some serious action in Yemen over the weekend, and some good news for a change.
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: The internationally recognized government in
• 3:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: 2,316 hoothies over the last 72 hours or so.
• 3:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's a lot of psychotic goat herders taken off the battlefield.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: As it turns out, the good guys carried out more than 700 different operations, and they even killed a couple of Iranians while they were at it.
• 3:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Most of the action took place in and around the town of Tais in the southwest quadrant of Yemen.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: So yes, some good news, but don't pop the bubble yet.
• 3:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot more fighting to go in Yemen.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: and the southerners are going to need as much help as they can get.
• 3:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: headline two now for some possible bad news.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran's web guard said yesterday that they seized an American submarine drone in the state of Hormuz.
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: No word yet from the US military on this, but if true, the unmanned underwater vehicle or UUV.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: is now being picked apart and reverse engineered by the thugs who rule a run.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: If reports are accurate, there are photos to back it up and they captured a remiss 600.
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: A reminder here that the battle for the Hormuz Strait continues and the U.S. has not gained the upper hand yet, even with operation economic outcast taking bigger and bigger fights out of the Iranian economy.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: headline three turkey continues to explore ways to get back into the F-35 club as a reminder the Turks were bounced out of the program back in 2019 because they purchased a Russian made S-400 air defense system a reminder here that Turkey is a NATO ally and NATO was created to counter
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: wait for it.
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Russian threat.
• 4:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Another reminder, the S 400 can track and collect data on US aircraft based in Turkey.
• 4:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So all this was one big cluster.
• 4:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: So much so that the US slap sanctions on Turkey and ensure that the F 35s would be sold to Ankara.
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: But now, according to the Russians this past week, the Turks are trying to sell or gift.
• 4:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: the system to some other country like maybe the UAE or maybe Syria or who knows where else in the words of my ancestors this would be a chanda.
• 4:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ankara should give the system to the United States so we can reverse engineer the thing that's what a good ally would do just saying.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: and headline for his bow achieve nine costs and said this weekend that Israel cannot break the back of the so called resistance in Lebanon is of course referring to his own organization.
• 5:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: This comes amidst reports that Israel is basically done exactly that reducing his ballets roughly.
• 5:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: 20% of its former power, and reports this weekend suggest also that the leadership vacuum after Operation Grim Beeper and the elimination of former his Balachi Pasha Masralla has left the group rudderless.
• 5:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's now up to the Lebanese government and the Lebanese armed forces to step up and feel devoid, whether they can, is another question, entire.
• 5:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is a perfect segue to our interview today.
• 5:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Our guest is Belaw's sub.
• 5:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's a non-resident fellow at the Atlanta Council here in DCs and associate fellow at Chatham House in the UK.
• 5:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: He taught for several years at Georgetown University and he's now senior managing director of a UAE affiliated shop here in town called TrendsUS.
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Belaw's a keen observer of all things Lebanon and he's tracking the progress.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Or lack thereof as Beirut looks to reassert itself after more than four decades as his balla unravels.
• 6:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's chat with him now.
• 6:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the FDD Morning Brief B-Law sub.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good morning, Jonathan.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good morning to you.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I want to dive right in here and I want to ask you just top level question here.
• 6:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: How is it going in the effort to get the Lebanese government back in charge of Lebanon?
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I tell you, frame the segment by calling it a paradox because we're all wondering, like, is it an issue of willingness, is it an issue of ability to impose that sovereignty, right?
• 6:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it just might be that it's a combination of the two, right?
• 6:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've seen a flurry of diplomatic activity in Washington by Lebanese officials.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: You saw the president come in not too long ago, the prime minister isn't town as well, all basically communicating or messages of state authority and sovereignty and all that.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I think we all understand very well that there's just a lot of work yet to be done to actually impose that sovereignty and to physically disarmed as well.
• 7:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Open Secret is that the Lebanese government is far more comfortable with Israel doing the job as opposed to them, actually physically confronting the organization.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we can debate this morning, you and I, whether that's the right strategy or the wrong strategy.
• 7:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, let's do that in a minute, but I mean, I guess, let's just, I want to ask a kind of a technical question, can the laugh do this without Israel?
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I keep hearing that Lebanese want Israel to leave.
• 7:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, I understand why Israel, I mean, nobody really wants to like travel it Israel and celebrate Hanukkah this year in Tel Aviv from Lebanon.
• 8:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's like not a thing, right?
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: They don't love the Israeli presence.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: They don't love the Israelis.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's some bad blood over the years.
• 8:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: But that's actually in in my mind, one of the greatest paradoxes that we could we could look at today.
• 8:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, nobody else will do this Except for Israel because the laugh doesn't have the capability or maybe the will.
• 8:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So are the Israelis the savior of Lebanon, even if they're hated by the Lebanese
• 8:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: don't tell that to any Lebanese because no one will agree with that, but the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
• 8:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: And there's a lot of work that's been done by the Israeli government that once again is just doing precisely achieving the common goal of this army has bought law, which is an interest of course of the Lebanese government.
• 8:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: You asked me about the technical capability.
• 8:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, let's just put aside the political context, right?
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to address
• 8:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, if you had asked me that question two years ago, I would have said most likely not because Hasbalah was a very different beast and different cattle fish and there would have been a pretty vicious fight even though I still believe in the capabilities of the Lebanese army I think they would have made their life very difficult, but I think there would have been also significant casualties Uh, they're just not trained for that fight
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: a fight that his Bala has honed in for so many years and they know the terrain far better than any.
• 9:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: But now, let's just take that percentage that you mentioned before Jonathan, which is let's just say it's a 20% now combat power of what we have left with his Bala.
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think they're in a much better place now with that confrontation if given the orders by the Lebanese government or at the very least, make as well as life far more difficult and can really constrain their movement and their ability to communicate and do all the things of military activities in a way that would probably not neutralize the threat but severely minimize it.
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, and I mean, look, I got to say if that's true, I like it and it's, I think there's, you know, there's a lot of talk about giving the Lebanese armed forces more fire power, giving the more munitions, giving them more, you know, platforms military platforms to be able to use.
• 10:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that really this is just a question of how many resources the LAF has, but then there's this other thing and I'm going to tell you every time I have conversations with with Lebanese they tell me, you know, maybe the LAF can do it, maybe they can't.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: But then there's this question of, well, we have to avoid a civil war.
• 10:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I mean, I look at it two ways.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: On the one hand, you know, the Lebanese government or the Lebanese armed forces, serving itself in legitimate ways and routing in a runback terror group.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's kind of like, I mean, that is their mandate at the most basic level.
• 10:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: On the other hand, a government army going after Lebanese citizens, even if they're fully infiltrated by the Iranians and their advisors on the ground, it is attacks against their own.
• 11:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: So is this something that anybody has the stomach for right now?
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: Never wanted to discount the risk, the possibility of some kind of sectarian conflict violence.
• 11:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I think that the notion of civil wars overstated, and you don't have to believe me to say that, to believe that it's the Lebanese president himself who has actually said that.
• 11:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: And when I asked him that question, he enumerated a number of examples where there was an actual physical confrontation between laugh soldiers and his bullah.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's certain incidents over the past few years.
• 11:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Where obviously it didn't lead to what everybody's soul
• 11:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: I understand the psychology of it because of the past, but that doesn't mean that we're now in a similar situation where that would lead to civil war.
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now does anyone have the stomach for that?
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, I'm going to rely on statements by the Lebanese government senior officials, right, the president, the prime minister.
• 12:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think I have yet to hear any statement saying that
• 12:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think they much prefer for this to be done peacefully, although we can obviously debate whether that's even possible, right?
• 12:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or as we just discussed before, wait to see what Israel can do to further minimize the capabilities of Asbala and to sort of make it less and less relevant as a military actor.
• 12:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: But an actual physical confrontation, a physical disarmament of the organization, I don't think the Lebanese government has made that decision yet, and I don't think it will.
• 12:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, you can tell they're kicking the can down the road on this and allowing the Israelis to do this.
• 12:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's again, that's the sort of, that's the paradox.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's the Bayer one here.
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's like, hey, we have to assert our sovereignty.
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey, Israel, please assert our sovereignty.
• 12:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: But we hate you, but keep doing it.
• 12:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then maybe we all, you know, shake hands in the end and maybe normalize.
• 13:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I do want to ask you one other thing, I mean, there is this question of, you know, the Shia in Lebanon in particular, right?
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: His Bala has been their representative for better for worse.
• 13:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, generally for worse.
• 13:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's be honest, right?
• 13:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so their military power is waning.
• 13:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are some who suggest that maybe his ball just becomes a political party after its military is dismantled and then the group gets to continue to represent the Shia in some way.
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: That sounds like a disaster to me.
• 13:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: That sounds like a really messy outcome that leaves a lot of room for ambiguity.
• 13:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: How do you see the Shia fairing
• 13:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: defeated militarily is there some new political entity or is his ball of the thing that sticks around.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, as you very well know Jonathan, it's not just Hesbala that's representing the Shia.
• 13:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's also Ahmed.
• 13:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you wonder at that point, if you get to that outcome, whether Ahmed would step up and really, you know, fill in the so-called vacuum, but I mean, boy, would it be such a major transformational challenge for Hesbala to reinvent itself into becoming a political party?
• 14:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because throughout its history, since it's birth,
• 14:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: It is always used politics in the service of what it calls the resistance.
• 14:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: It really was never a sophisticated political party with a political program.
• 14:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: It didn't really care about, you know, how it ran its political machinery, as long as it was in the service of the military struggle.
• 14:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, serving me agenda of Iran, right?
• 14:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: So for them to reinvent themselves, I suspect that that would be
• 14:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: either virtually impossible or it would really dilute their influence tremendously to the point where of course Ahmad would exploit that and they become you know the the main representative of the Shi'a community.
• 14:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I think we've always had this consensus that it's always the arms, the struggle that is predominant, that is the core priority and politics sort of like
• 15:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I wouldn't mind watching his ball up enter into some sort of a crisis at which point I'm I'll take them over and kind of just reimagines she got politics in Lebanon.
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't seem like a bad outcome for me, but I guess we'll wait and see.
• 15:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to ask you about, it's not something I'm sorry if you don't mind me saying like,
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: I've heard so many commentators and I actually agree with them that, you know, no one has a problem with his ball of being a political party that actually enters into participatory politics and they get into elections and then let's just see who wins like legitimately, right?
• 15:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I mean, I got to say though, we've seen that movie before.
• 15:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, Hamas.
• 15:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: was in the elections in 2006 with the Palestinian Authority, look how that worked out, right?
• 15:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: And ultimately led to the civil war that everybody was trying to prevent.
• 15:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: That just seems like you're giving them a lifeline as opposed to pushing them out and saying, you're illegitimate, you've been a violent organization, you get no quarter now in the new Lebanon.
• 16:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: I suppose that's a debate we can have, but there is risk, right?
• 16:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: having a religiously-based political party is unconstitutional, right?
• 16:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: But then you got to pick your poison and you got to say, what do you, what's your, the most important priority right now, which is having a political party that is this art, without arms that is not challenging the sovereignty of the state.
• 16:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then you got to work the other layer of radicalism and ideology and so on, all that stuff.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I agree with you.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: There is a risk of course I'm incorporating an extremist radical entity into secular politics
• 16:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it just seems dangerous to me, and maybe not a risk that's worth taking if you're going to learn some of the lessons of the recent past in the Middle East.
• 17:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, I want to ask you about last week, Lebanese Prime Minister no off Salam spoke before the United Nations, what was his message to the world?
• 17:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: core messages that you heard from the Lebanese president, you know, state sovereignty once again, you know, and imposing your authority, but also you got into issues of, uh, there are quite current, of course, that you are, uh, hearing from the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, so we demanded a permanent ceasefire, um, uh, withdrawal of, uh, Israeli soldiers from Lebanon, and then getting into the Israeli reconstruction because issues of soldiers dire in southern
• 17:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think any of those messages are going to land well, either in Washington or in Israel.
• 17:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think that those are hopeful messages more than anything else and, you know, they're going to be debated in the next round of, you know, negotiations between Israelis and the Lebanese coming up here in October.
• 17:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, to me, it's added like kind of more for domestic consumption, kind of like what BB did as well.
• 18:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there are a lot of these world leaders get up at, you know, at the podium at Turtle Bay, and they speak, and it's really not about trying to convince the world that something needs to change.
• 18:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's more like talking to your own people, probably what, maybe from, you know, the ultimate stage.
• 18:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, yeah.
• 18:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
• 18:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, so I'm is now in Washington this week, which I think is interesting.
• 18:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, of course, you know, if you're here, you might as well, right, you know, if you're in New York, take the jump to DC, do you think his message is going to be any different here as he comes and speaks with officials in Washington.
• 18:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Not a ton, and as you know Jonathan, he's been less directly involved in the negotiating track.
• 18:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's been more the Lebanese president for maybe a couple of good reasons.
• 18:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: One, I mean, he's the head of the state, and two, at the end of the day, the negotiations are primarily about security and military issues.
• 19:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: And this is a man who comes from military institutions, so sort of
• 19:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: you know, he's well versed in the issues.
• 19:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think the prime minister is here to discuss once again, you know, reconstruction, Lebanon, and the issue of uniform, which you mentioned as well, right?
• 19:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, he has preferences of the Lebanese government as a whole, or preferences for keeping uniform, and he's praised the role of uniform.
• 19:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: He is worried about a vacuum should uniform but draw.
• 19:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then, of course, he's going to discuss the usual of a permanent ceasefire.
• 19:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: But no, I think that the president and the Prime Minister sort of fact-teaming their sort of aligned on all the core issues here, you're not going to see a ton of difference in messaging with the Prime Minister.
• 19:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, of course, I own was here, I don't know what, two months ago, and he delivered a lot of these messages seem to have a good rapport with Donald Trump.
• 19:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Very well.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I guess, let's see what happens with, with no officer on when he's here this week.
• 19:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you know that's important with the president, right?
• 19:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the personal rapport that that just could take you far, but I'm not sure that the prime minister has that same, you know, connection, you know, with the president, I'm
• 20:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, that's what I'm hearing as well, but you know, there's I'm guessing Marco Rubio and members of Congress and other officials.
• 20:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, heck, maybe even the Pentagon as we talk about, you know, how to how to secure, how to secure 11 on and get the assistance that 11 on needs.
• 20:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: But okay, I do want to circle back to unifill.
• 20:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is the UN interim forces in 11 on it has been an abject failure.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: or the better part of two decades, it has not been able to secure Lebanon.
• 20:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: It has not fought back against his Bala.
• 20:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: It has really been a waste of money.
• 20:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's been a waste of time and space in my humble opinion.
• 20:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I guess I'm curious if you feel the same way, but also, I mean, what is no off to them, I think he can do by keeping UNIFIL afloat right now.
• 21:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I don't think there's an emotional attachment or political attachment to unifilpersight.
• 21:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it's just that at least having another international force, they are made up of whatever nationalities that you can think of.
• 21:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's some kind of a buffer or same concept sort of, but more effective than what unifilp is.
• 21:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: But if I agree with you on the efficacy of unifilp, all these years, absolutely.
• 21:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the proof is in the pudding and has failed at its mission for, you know, God knows how many years.
• 21:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I guess it just surprises me whenever anybody comes out and says, oh, well, let's keep you in a field going like why why do we do that when I mean, quite frankly, the Israelis are doing everything that you know, Phil and the LAF were supposed to combine and I know that it's not like the UN loves Israel and they're not like, oh, let's just have Israel do this.
• 21:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not like the Lebanese are going to say that, but maybe it might be time to acknowledge that the things that weren't working.
• 21:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're still not working and there's only one thing that is working and that is hard power against his follow that does seem to be the only thing that has weakened it and I think that's important here to remember as we head into what could be kind of final phases of this this battle and it's fascinating to watch.
• 22:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, okay, there's a role for an international force, but not now.
• 22:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's still a lot of work to be done on the process of this arm.
• 22:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then you get an international force that we'll be able to monitor whatever piece that exists.
• 22:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: But right now, uh, it's it's really difficult to see inserting any kind of force be unfulrantly like that in the at a moment where there's still a lot of work to be done.
• 22:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I'm going to throw a curve ball at you.
• 22:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's normalization possible at the end of this process.
• 22:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say the fight continues.
• 22:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Israel gets the better of his balla.
• 22:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sovereignty is restored to Lebanon in as much as sovereignty can be.
• 22:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Is that the next step or is it just sort of like, we all agree to not fight?
• 23:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, it just might be a transition, it might be sort of like going back to, you know, the earlier agreement between love and on Israel, where the sort of like coexistence and, you know, not exactly peace accord and then ultimately we graduate to something like that, but I'll just go back to the very words of the president he said he's open to it as long as you see full Israeli withdrawal.
• 23:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then bring back the issue of Lavenon Sea, how much consensus there is around the issue.
• 23:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, it's a very emotional.
• 24:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And just again, the paradox, the irony of the Israelis, the hated Israelis, restoring sovereignty to Lebanon.
• 24:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's just, you can't make this stuff up.
• 24:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I guess welcome to 2026, right?
• 24:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, because our times we live in, fascinating, and, well, it's almost like it's worth doing a podcast about it.
• 24:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Last question before I let you go in very generous of your time.
• 24:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: What's going on on the border between Syrian Lebanon?
• 24:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, for years and years, right, for decades, Iran was exploiting that border, right?
• 24:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Syria was controlled by the Assad regime.
• 24:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Assad regime was just allowing Iranian weapons and drugs and fighters and cash and everything.
• 24:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was like the most one of the most poorest borders in the world.
• 24:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was being exploited by all the worst actors.
• 24:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Things seem better now.
• 24:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Is that a mirage, because I do know that, let's be honest, the Syrian regime, as it is now, is pretty well entrenched with Sunni Jihadis.
• 25:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's dominated by the Turks who are not exactly benign actors in the region.
• 25:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: So are we to trust what's going on over there?
• 25:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Or is it trust but verify or is it worse than it looks?
• 25:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: No, I agree with you that it's better, but obviously it's not fully secure.
• 25:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: I will refer to you a really interesting video that I saw, not too long ago, of an encounter between Lebanese soldiers and Syrian soldiers at the very border, and they are talking to each other about, you know, how...
• 25:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have a common interest in cooperating and the sense of brotherhood and so on and so forth.
• 25:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: I thought it was really beautiful video whether it was staged or not it didn't look stage.
• 25:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think it looked organic, but it just sort of exemplified The common interest and the common challenge of securing a border because it's a long border and historically speaking is a very well said it's been for us, but things are better now
• 25:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: in large part because they have this common interest of securing it.
• 26:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, the very source of that porousness, if I may use that word was the Syrian regime, not that it's gone, it banks it a little bit more manageable to secure it and.
• 26:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it's not the same flow as you used to see, you know, with the Uranians sort of running the show, it's not at all.
• 26:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, it does require a manpower at the end of the day, and usually very well-known, Lebanese army does face manpower challenges because of salaries, because of, you know, physical inability and so on and so forth.
• 26:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I think that we're in a much better situation now, then clearly what it used to be, you know, before the fall of the Syrian regime.
• 26:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna take good news wherever I can get it.
• 26:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: One of the things you could be all sub for joining us today on the FDD morning brief.
• 26:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, Jonathan, for having me really appreciated.
• 26:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, guys, it's almost the end of September, which is hard to believe, but you better believe that it's the end of today's episode.
• 27:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Between now and our next episode on Wednesday, I do want to encourage you to read the work of my super smart colleagues.
• 27:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: We post all of it at FDD.org.
• 27:08
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• 27:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Come on, people.
• 27:14
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• 27:18
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• 27:22
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• 27:23
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• 27:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: We are sincerely grateful to every contribution you may.
• 27:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: So let's all resolve to support FDD and let's all get on with our day and let's all come back on Wednesday for another episode.
• 27:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jonathan Schanzer as always signing off for FDD.