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MAC, C-USA and Mountain West Previews, Best Bets & Predictions · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

0:00
Speaker 1: On today's show, we're gonna preview and give twenty twenty
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Speaker 1: six picks and predictions for these three college football conferences,
0:07
Speaker 1: the MAC, Conference USA, and the Mountain West. Well, come in.
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Speaker 1: This is winn He cures everything. It's a college football podcast.
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Speaker 1: Of course, I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WC
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Speaker 1: on all the different socials. This is the Monday, June
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Speaker 1: twenty second edition of the show. Today we're discussing some
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Speaker 1: G six conferences. Right, We've got the MAC, We've got
0:30
Speaker 1: Conference USA, and we've got the Mountain West. Next week
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Speaker 1: we're gonna have the American, the PAC twelve, and the
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Speaker 1: Sun Belt. So click the subscribe button like the video.
0:39
Speaker 1: Of course, jump in the comments. You guys know what
0:41
Speaker 1: to do there. With that said, let's get this pod rolling.
0:45
Speaker 1: The MAC lost Northern Illinois, they added Sacramento State, stretched
0:50
Speaker 1: itself all the way out to California, and with that
0:53
Speaker 1: they got even more weird than they already were. Right,
0:57
Speaker 1: that's exactly why this league matters. Everybody knows about Maxin right,
1:01
Speaker 1: The twenty twenty six MAC is not some clean, obvious,
1:05
Speaker 1: top heavy league where one team is just clearly better
1:07
Speaker 1: than everybody else. What you got instead is a classic
1:10
Speaker 1: Mac setup. You got a couple of grown up programs
1:13
Speaker 1: at the top, one big name wild card in Toledo.
1:16
Speaker 1: You've got a giant middle class and a ton of
1:19
Speaker 1: quarterback questions. Right, Western Michigan is the defending champ. Miami
1:25
Speaker 1: might be the best team by the numbers. Toledo might
1:28
Speaker 1: have the best price or the best upside. Combo, Central Michigan,
1:32
Speaker 1: they're pretty dangerous. If the offense carries Eastern Michigan, that's
1:36
Speaker 1: your continuity long shot. Ohio's got the schedule, Bowling Green
1:40
Speaker 1: has the defensive floor. The market is telling you the
1:43
Speaker 1: same thing. Right, Western Michigan plus three sixty win the league.
1:47
Speaker 1: Miami is plus three ninety right now, Toledo plus four forty.
1:51
Speaker 1: Then you get back to Ohio at plus seven ten,
1:54
Speaker 1: Central Michigan at plus seven to fifty, and then you
1:57
Speaker 1: drop down a little bit. You got your long shots
1:59
Speaker 1: here East from Michigan plus fourteen hundred, Bowling Green plus
2:02
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred, Buffalo is eighteen to one, and then you
2:05
Speaker 1: got the real long shots. So the question is not
2:08
Speaker 1: like who's the obvious best team. The question to me
2:12
Speaker 1: is who survives the quarterback chaos? The Tuesday Night Rock
2:16
Speaker 1: fights right, the weather, the travel, all the ones score
2:20
Speaker 1: weirdness long enough to get to Detroit. The identity of
2:23
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six MAC is pretty simple, at least
2:25
Speaker 1: to me. You got rugged defense, leaning, low margin football.
2:30
Speaker 1: This year. I think the league is fighting national perception,
2:34
Speaker 1: like the returning production is below the national average, which
2:37
Speaker 1: it's going to be for most G six conferences going forward.
2:41
Speaker 1: Last year's averages P plus ranking was I mean it
2:44
Speaker 1: was pretty rough, right. The league went one in twenty
2:46
Speaker 1: five against Power four teams, so this is not a
2:50
Speaker 1: national power Group of five league on paper. But inside
2:54
Speaker 1: the MAC, I think the race is really interesting. If
2:57
Speaker 1: you're really just watching maction on you know, Tuesdays and Wednesdays,
3:01
Speaker 1: once we get to November and whatnot, you really want
3:02
Speaker 1: to know what's going on. It's an interesting conference because
3:06
Speaker 1: it's a league with two pretty safe programs. The Toledo
3:11
Speaker 1: reload is going to be pretty high variants, and then
3:14
Speaker 1: you've got a middle class that can absolutely talk itself
3:16
Speaker 1: into the title game if any of their quarterbacks had
3:19
Speaker 1: and I think that is the key thing here is
3:22
Speaker 1: the quarterback Western Michigan. They've got Brock Lowry back. Eastern
3:25
Speaker 1: Michigan has Noah Kim, Kent State Drew Deshields and boy
3:30
Speaker 1: he was exciting. Right, Almost everybody else has some version
3:33
Speaker 1: of a battle, a new starter, or some major unknown
3:37
Speaker 1: Right in the MAC, you don't need elite quarterback play
3:40
Speaker 1: to win the league. You need the least damaging quarterback situation.
3:44
Speaker 1: And the biggest change in this league is realignment. Right,
3:48
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois has gone to the Mountain West. Sacramento State
3:50
Speaker 1: comes in from the FCS, and look, Sacramento State in
3:54
Speaker 1: the Mid American Conference makes absolutely no geographic sense, but
3:58
Speaker 1: it does create some fun track weirdness, especially with these
4:01
Speaker 1: midweek games. Right, the Hornets are not eligible for the
4:04
Speaker 1: conference title. They've got the toughest MATT Conference schedule, at
4:08
Speaker 1: least as far as my table is concerned, but they
4:12
Speaker 1: can still create some strange spots for some of these
4:14
Speaker 1: other teams. The big coaching change this year was Toledo.
4:18
Speaker 1: Jason Candell finally left. He went to Yukon. Mike Jacobs
4:22
Speaker 1: takes over. Jacobs has won, but this is a monster transition,
4:26
Speaker 1: bringing a lot of FCS, a lot of D two
4:28
Speaker 1: players with him to Toledo. You got a new coach,
4:31
Speaker 1: likely new quarterback. ESPN noted the roster could have twenty
4:34
Speaker 1: one new starters and twenty seven transfers, and I think
4:39
Speaker 1: that's why Toledo is so fascinating. At plus four to
4:42
Speaker 1: forty to win the MAC, the upside is obvious, right.
4:45
Speaker 1: The trust level I don't think is there, but you
4:49
Speaker 1: could obviously see this going well for them. Ohio changed
4:52
Speaker 1: coaches too, That was an odd situation. John Howser takes
4:55
Speaker 1: over after Brian Smith was fired after one season. Ohio,
4:59
Speaker 1: you know, favorable sk le plus seven to ten to
5:01
Speaker 1: win the league. The offense is a major question with
5:04
Speaker 1: them not nearly as much continuity as they have had,
5:08
Speaker 1: I mean for years at this point. Really, you know,
5:12
Speaker 1: Western Michigan kept their head coach, they kept their quarterback,
5:15
Speaker 1: kept their running back. They did lose their defensive coordinator
5:18
Speaker 1: Chris O'Leary, and just a ton from their front six,
5:22
Speaker 1: but they've still got some depth there. Right Miami, They've
5:26
Speaker 1: got a new offensive coordinator, Gus Ragland. They got to
5:29
Speaker 1: replace their top two quarterbacks, their their top rusher, major
5:33
Speaker 1: receiving production. But this is the team in the MAC
5:36
Speaker 1: that has a little bit of money. They've got some backing.
5:39
Speaker 1: They've got a a working what's the word I'm looking for.
5:46
Speaker 1: They have a booster base that is willing to infest.
5:50
Speaker 1: Maybe that's the best way to put it. So the
5:52
Speaker 1: league has got stability in a few spots, but I
5:55
Speaker 1: mean it's volatility almost everywhere else. All Right, let's get
5:59
Speaker 1: into the tiers, because this is where the MAC really
6:03
Speaker 1: it starts to say shape, where you really get an
6:05
Speaker 1: idea of what these teams are. And I've kind of
6:07
Speaker 1: been through some of these. Tier one is going to
6:10
Speaker 1: be your title contenders. You can see it on the
6:12
Speaker 1: graphic here. The teams that I think can realistically play
6:15
Speaker 1: in the MAC Championship Game. Now, obviously this is an
6:18
Speaker 1: insanely volatile league. We don't know exactly what these teams
6:23
Speaker 1: are going to be, but as far as from what
6:25
Speaker 1: I can tell, this gives you a bit of an idea.
6:28
Speaker 1: Western Michigan, Miami, and Toledo are Tier one. Western Michigan
6:32
Speaker 1: is my projected champion. The Broncos are plus three sixty
6:35
Speaker 1: to win the MAC. They've got a win total of
6:37
Speaker 1: seven and a half. The over seven and a half
6:39
Speaker 1: is plus one fifteen. The under is minus one twenty two.
6:43
Speaker 1: And I think that that tells you that the market
6:45
Speaker 1: respects Western Michigan, but it's not fully sold on eight
6:50
Speaker 1: plus wins. And I get it right. The defensive losses
6:53
Speaker 1: are real. You lose the defensive coordinator, you're rebuilding that
6:57
Speaker 1: productive front six. I think that matters. But in this
7:00
Speaker 1: this league, I'm STI gonna trust the defending champ with
7:01
Speaker 1: the returning quarterback, with the returning running back in the
7:05
Speaker 1: returning head coach Brock Lowry gives Western Michigan the cleanest
7:09
Speaker 1: quarterback situation among contenders. Jalen Buckley gives them the run identity.
7:14
Speaker 1: That's why they're my title pick. Miami is the model team.
7:20
Speaker 1: RedHawks are plus three ninety to win the MAC. The
7:23
Speaker 1: win total set up is pretty tricky. Over six and
7:25
Speaker 1: a half is minus one eighty. That's a lot of juice.
7:29
Speaker 1: The alternate under seven and a half, that's minus one
7:32
Speaker 1: oh four basically screams that the market expects Miami to
7:35
Speaker 1: land at seven wins. But that's still I mean, that's
7:39
Speaker 1: a lot of Jews and you'd have to hit that
7:41
Speaker 1: thing just dead on. And they do play quite a
7:43
Speaker 1: few power for teams. Miami's got the best program floor
7:46
Speaker 1: in the league. And Chuck Martin, I mean, what can
7:50
Speaker 1: you say about the guy. He's built the most proven
7:52
Speaker 1: operation in the MAC. The defense, the special teams, the
7:54
Speaker 1: physicality is all going to be there. At least it
7:56
Speaker 1: should be there. It has been for a while. But
7:59
Speaker 1: the quarterback question is pretty real. You got new quarterbacks,
8:02
Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator, major offensive turnover. It makes me more
8:06
Speaker 1: interested in Miami as a title contender than a win
8:10
Speaker 1: total bet, I think. And then the third one in
8:14
Speaker 1: that tier is Toledo. Toledo plus four to forty to
8:17
Speaker 1: win the league. That's my favorite title bet among the favorites,
8:21
Speaker 1: and the price has a lot to do with that.
8:25
Speaker 1: The win total of seven and a half over is
8:27
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen, the unders plus one oh five. So
8:29
Speaker 1: the market is buying some of the upside. But it's
8:32
Speaker 1: not like they've priced Toledo like a finished product, and
8:35
Speaker 1: I think that's the right way to frame it. Like
8:37
Speaker 1: it it's not like this is the safest team. It's
8:40
Speaker 1: a new coach, it's a new system, transfer, heavy roster,
8:43
Speaker 1: new quarterback situation. We've seen this go brilliantly, we've seen
8:47
Speaker 1: it go spectacularly awful. Right, But if John Allen Richter
8:52
Speaker 1: is competent and the transfers hit quickly. Toledo's got the schedule,
8:56
Speaker 1: they got the brand, they got the upside to be
8:58
Speaker 1: able to win the league. So my pick is Western Michigan.
9:05
Speaker 1: My best bet to win the league is Toledo at
9:08
Speaker 1: plus four forty. We move on to Tier two and
9:12
Speaker 1: you got dark courses teams that could surprise if things
9:14
Speaker 1: break right, and you can see here, I've got Central Michigan,
9:18
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Bowling Green and Buffalo,
9:25
Speaker 1: and Central Michigan is plus seven fifty two win. The
9:28
Speaker 1: MAC win total is six and a half over is
9:31
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. On that it's my favorite win total
9:34
Speaker 1: on the board, partially because of the price, partially because
9:37
Speaker 1: of some of the continuity. The defense is a question,
9:40
Speaker 1: but that offense has a real path. The Angel Flores
9:43
Speaker 1: has experience, Langston Lewis is back there, offensive line has
9:47
Speaker 1: a bunch of starting experience. Like if CMU gets to
9:49
Speaker 1: seven wins, they're probably involved in the In the November
9:52
Speaker 1: title conversation, Ohio plus seven to ten, the over is
9:57
Speaker 1: minus one twenty four and that's over six and a
10:01
Speaker 1: half for the win total. They've got the easiest max schedule.
10:04
Speaker 1: I think the path is the selling point here, like
10:06
Speaker 1: they the defense should be good enough. The offense is
10:10
Speaker 1: a big red flag. I don't love the price enough
10:13
Speaker 1: to make them a favorite bet, but but the win
10:16
Speaker 1: total absolutely a favorite bet. Like I'm I'm good with
10:21
Speaker 1: that six and a half. I think they could get
10:25
Speaker 1: to seven. I feel good about them. Eastern Michigan is
10:28
Speaker 1: plus fourteen hundred to win the league. Over five and
10:31
Speaker 1: a half is minus one fifty. This is my favorite
10:34
Speaker 1: long shot. Noah kim is back. EMU has got the
10:40
Speaker 1: best continuity profile in the conference and in this league.
10:43
Speaker 1: I think that just boring stability is valuable. The over
10:46
Speaker 1: is not cheap, but the conference future at plus fourteen hundred,
10:50
Speaker 1: that number absolutely makes sense to me because you guys
10:52
Speaker 1: know how much I love Chris Creighton. Like that guy
10:55
Speaker 1: is just a ball coach and his teams are the
10:59
Speaker 1: time of teams that will if you don't want to
11:02
Speaker 1: play the football game, they'll just fight you in the
11:04
Speaker 1: parking lot, and that's fun to me. I think they
11:09
Speaker 1: are rough and tumble and that is a fantastic A
11:13
Speaker 1: well coached football team Bowling Green at plus sixteen hundred
11:17
Speaker 1: win total of four and a half. The over is
11:19
Speaker 1: minus one fifty two. I like the over more than
11:21
Speaker 1: the title. Future there, schedule is favorable, defense has a
11:25
Speaker 1: real core, and the record last year probably undersold them
11:29
Speaker 1: a bit. But you know, I like Eddie. I think
11:33
Speaker 1: the offense has to prove it can function. But that
11:38
Speaker 1: second year here with the coach that got in late,
11:41
Speaker 1: I like Eddie George. I think I think they're interesting.
11:45
Speaker 1: Buffalo is plus eighteen hundred win total. Market to me
11:49
Speaker 1: is saying six wins on this over five and a
11:52
Speaker 1: half is minus one eighty. The under six and a
11:54
Speaker 1: half is minus one seventy. I mean, it's tough to bet.
11:58
Speaker 1: Like Pete, Limbo does give them some credibility, and Buffalo's
12:01
Speaker 1: secondary is really strong, but the offense and the quarterback situation,
12:04
Speaker 1: it makes seven wins hard to trust. Here. Moving on
12:08
Speaker 1: to the Tier three and that's your Bowl Bubble and
12:12
Speaker 1: spoiler teams. That's Akron, Kent State, and Sacramento State. Akron
12:17
Speaker 1: plus three thousand to win the league, they gotta win
12:20
Speaker 1: total of four and a half. Over is minus one
12:21
Speaker 1: oh five, the under is minus one oh five. Those
12:24
Speaker 1: are the best odds available on this, and it's a
12:27
Speaker 1: sneaky over, like Joe Moorehead finally got some traction, Jordan
12:31
Speaker 1: Gant is back. There's there's quarterback upside. The problem is
12:35
Speaker 1: the schedule. Ackron's got the third hardest Matt Conference draw,
12:38
Speaker 1: So I don't love that Kent State is plus six thousand,
12:42
Speaker 1: and this is where I'm gonna start fading, Like the
12:45
Speaker 1: market gives you over two and a half at minus
12:47
Speaker 1: two hundred, but there's an alt three and a half
12:49
Speaker 1: at minus one ten. I kind of like the under
12:52
Speaker 1: three and a half. They did improve last year. Four
12:54
Speaker 1: of the five wins they had were by one score,
12:57
Speaker 1: and I do like the Shields their quarterback, but they
13:03
Speaker 1: have the second hardest league schedule. I think getting to
13:05
Speaker 1: four wins is going to be tougher than most people think.
13:08
Speaker 1: Sacramento State like they're not eligible to win the MAC.
13:11
Speaker 1: It's an interesting transition team, toughest conference schedule, got to
13:15
Speaker 1: get used to a lot of travel. I don't know
13:18
Speaker 1: that they're necessarily ready, and boy did they move over
13:22
Speaker 1: to FBS late, like really late, and they've got a
13:25
Speaker 1: brand new coach. It's just there's a lot going on there.
13:28
Speaker 1: Tier four. I mean, we keep it real on the show.
13:33
Speaker 1: These teams are in a rebuild, maybe a perpetual rebuild.
13:37
Speaker 1: Constant Ball State and UMass Ball State plus ninety four
13:40
Speaker 1: hundred to win the MAC with a win total of
13:43
Speaker 1: three and a half to go over three and a half,
13:45
Speaker 1: it's minus one ten to go under it's minus one
13:47
Speaker 1: oh five. This roster is just it's not. I don't
13:54
Speaker 1: trust it. That's the nicest way I can put that.
13:58
Speaker 1: UMass is plus twenty five thousand to win the MAC.
14:02
Speaker 1: They've got a win total of two and a half
14:04
Speaker 1: over as minus one forty five under his plus one
14:06
Speaker 1: thirty two. They should be better than oh to twelve,
14:09
Speaker 1: which is what they were last year. But better does
14:12
Speaker 1: not mean good. And you know it's jews to where
14:15
Speaker 1: they're expecting them to get to three wins. I will see.
14:20
Speaker 1: We'll see about that. As far as what the conference
14:24
Speaker 1: does well, the MAC has defensive identity, which you can
14:29
Speaker 1: see on the graphic here. Miami, Western, Michigan, Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo.
14:34
Speaker 1: There's enough teams here that can make games ugly. Right,
14:38
Speaker 1: You've got coaching stability in key spots. Chuck Martin of
14:40
Speaker 1: course has been there for a while, Lance Taylor at
14:42
Speaker 1: Western Michigan, Chris Creighton at Eastern, Pete Limbo at Buffalo.
14:45
Speaker 1: That matters, I think in a league where resources are
14:47
Speaker 1: pretty tight and margins are small. The league has a
14:51
Speaker 1: bunch of running backs as well. You can see that
14:53
Speaker 1: Jaylen Buckley at Western Michigan, Rodney Nelson and Deshante Jones
14:58
Speaker 1: they're at Miami, Jordan Gant at Akron Brock Townsend at
15:02
Speaker 1: Central Michigan. The concern is there are genuine weak spots
15:07
Speaker 1: in this conference that could hurt, and they could hurt
15:10
Speaker 1: everything with this quarterback. Uncertainty is all over the place here.
15:14
Speaker 1: Offensive quality is limited, the national ceiling probably not high
15:18
Speaker 1: unless the champion separates. And I think that's why the
15:22
Speaker 1: betting board matters so much here. It's not a league
15:25
Speaker 1: where I want to lay short prices everywhere. It's a
15:27
Speaker 1: league where I want stability. I want schedule edges and
15:31
Speaker 1: give me some plus money win totals. Right, That's what
15:35
Speaker 1: I'm looking for all right now, for who the best
15:39
Speaker 1: players are. Right, let me give you some guys to
15:42
Speaker 1: know for when you're watching these matching games on Tuesdays
15:45
Speaker 1: and Wednesdays once we get into November. Brock Lowry at
15:49
Speaker 1: Western Michigan. He is the most important quarterback because he
15:53
Speaker 1: gives some stability to the defending champions, right Noah Kim
15:56
Speaker 1: at Eastern Michigan. That's my long shot here. Eastern Michigan.
16:01
Speaker 1: Their plus fourteen hundred kind of kind of starts the
16:05
Speaker 1: stops with him if he's pretty good. Remember he was
16:07
Speaker 1: at Michigan State a couple of years ago. I think
16:11
Speaker 1: he's got a good shot to be decent in his
16:12
Speaker 1: second season at Eastern. Drew Deshields at Kent State gives
16:16
Speaker 1: the Flashes a chance to be competitive. I'm still on
16:19
Speaker 1: that under three and a half. But boy, he's a
16:23
Speaker 1: fun football player. He's fun. Miami's quarterback battle is the
16:27
Speaker 1: biggest title title race. Swing the guys that we've got
16:31
Speaker 1: Thomas got Kowski and David McComb or Caleb Heavener, Like
16:40
Speaker 1: Miami can win this league at plus three ninety, but
16:43
Speaker 1: it kind of rests on if one of those guys
16:45
Speaker 1: actually steps up. The offense could could kind of cap
16:48
Speaker 1: that ceiling there. As far as the best offense or
16:51
Speaker 1: best offenses in the conference. Western Michigan, Miami Central Michigan,
16:56
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan, and Toledo the best defenses. Miami is probably
17:01
Speaker 1: the safest because you know what you're gonna get from
17:02
Speaker 1: a Chruck Martin defense. Ohio has got the scheduled edge,
17:06
Speaker 1: and I mean they got linebackers like they they got
17:10
Speaker 1: dudes that you trust there. Bowling Green, I think has
17:14
Speaker 1: uh I put on here defensive floor. I could buy
17:19
Speaker 1: that because you just kind of know what you're gonna
17:22
Speaker 1: get with those guys. Buffalo has got a good secondary.
17:25
Speaker 1: Western Michigan, you know there's some concern there. They've got talent,
17:30
Speaker 1: but the front six has got to be rebuilt. So
17:33
Speaker 1: that's something to pay attention to. At the scheduled dynamics.
17:37
Speaker 1: The schedule kind of tells the story of the season.
17:40
Speaker 1: I want a few highlight a few things here. So
17:44
Speaker 1: the teams with absolutely brutal paths. Sacramento State has got
17:47
Speaker 1: the hardest MATT Conference schedule. Kent State has got the
17:50
Speaker 1: second most difficult, which is why I really like that
17:53
Speaker 1: under three and a half. I think that I think
17:56
Speaker 1: that's the best fade on the board. Akron has the
18:00
Speaker 1: third hardest. That keeps me from getting too aggressive, even
18:03
Speaker 1: though the over four and a half, I'm questioning that one,
18:09
Speaker 1: but I mean that schedule is the schedule is rough,
18:13
Speaker 1: and then number four the fourth and most difficult to
18:15
Speaker 1: Central Michigan. They've got the fourth most difficult, but it's
18:19
Speaker 1: that over six and a half at plus one fifteen
18:21
Speaker 1: is interesting to me. I like that one. If Central
18:24
Speaker 1: Michigan gets through the schedule and reaches seven, they're probably
18:27
Speaker 1: pretty legit and they're probably competing in the at least
18:30
Speaker 1: late for the conference title. As far as teams with
18:33
Speaker 1: soft schedules, Ohio has the easiest max schedule, which they
18:39
Speaker 1: certainly need it with the coaching transition and all that
18:42
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. The stuff that happened there was who
18:46
Speaker 1: Brian Smith's stuff is crazy, and that supports an over
18:50
Speaker 1: six and a half at minus one twenty four. It
18:52
Speaker 1: makes the plus seven to ten to win the league
18:54
Speaker 1: kind of reasonable. That's what we've been doing with the
18:56
Speaker 1: Power Forward conferences. If you've got a soft schedule and
18:59
Speaker 1: you got to decent team, you probably got a shot.
19:03
Speaker 1: Bowling Green has got the second easiest draw. Again, their
19:07
Speaker 1: win till it was four and a half. The over
19:09
Speaker 1: is minus one fifty two, and I do like their defense,
19:12
Speaker 1: so Eastern Michigan has one of the easier pass They're
19:16
Speaker 1: number three, and that supports over five and a half
19:19
Speaker 1: at minus one fifty, and that's why I like them
19:21
Speaker 1: With the plus fourteen hundred long shot. Toledo has the
19:24
Speaker 1: best schedule outside of the top two, which is why
19:27
Speaker 1: I like their plus four to forty conference future. As
19:31
Speaker 1: far as games that could decide the conference, here, you
19:34
Speaker 1: got a lot of Western Michigan on this thing. Western
19:37
Speaker 1: Michigan at Buffalo on October third, Western Michigan at Central
19:42
Speaker 1: Michigan on October seventeenth, Miami at Central Michigan on October
19:47
Speaker 1: twenty fourth, Sorry, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, No,
19:53
Speaker 1: that's on the seventeenth, Sorry, Miami at Central Michigan on
19:56
Speaker 1: the twenty fourth, Western Michigan at Toledo on October twenty fourth.
20:00
Speaker 1: And then you get into late November and you got
20:03
Speaker 1: Miami going to Western Michigan and that could absolutely be
20:06
Speaker 1: a title game preview like it, or it could decide
20:09
Speaker 1: who gets to Detroit in the first place. What is
20:13
Speaker 1: that four of those games have Western Michigan there. I mean,
20:16
Speaker 1: it's just wild. And of those games, you've got Miami
20:21
Speaker 1: in two of them. You've got Toledo and one of them,
20:24
Speaker 1: Western Michigan is and all the other ones, and we
20:26
Speaker 1: don't have an Ohio when they were in there, Like
20:29
Speaker 1: that's that's what's so weird about this. So let's talk
20:32
Speaker 1: about the championship. I've got Miami in Western Michigan in
20:35
Speaker 1: the MAC Championship game. I think Miami gets there because
20:39
Speaker 1: their defense, because they're special teams. Obviously, the coaching, the program, floor,
20:43
Speaker 1: all all that stuff is too reliable to ignore. They're
20:45
Speaker 1: gonna find somebody that can play the quarterback position. I
20:48
Speaker 1: trust that, and at plus three ninety, they make sense
20:51
Speaker 1: as a title contender. I don't love the win total.
20:55
Speaker 1: I mean, the market's already sitting around seven, so I'm
20:58
Speaker 1: not you know, I'm not totally by an. I think
21:02
Speaker 1: Western Michigan gets there because they've already got the trophy.
21:06
Speaker 1: You kind of have an idea of what you're gonna
21:08
Speaker 1: get there, the quarterback, the running back, the head coach,
21:11
Speaker 1: all that. I've brought that up multiple times. My projected
21:14
Speaker 1: champion here is Western Michigan at plus three sixty. And
21:19
Speaker 1: why it makes sense is in a chaotic MAC, I'm
21:21
Speaker 1: going to trust the team with the best contender, quarterback stability,
21:24
Speaker 1: and the clearest offensive identity. My best bet to win
21:28
Speaker 1: the conference is Toledo at plus four to forty because
21:33
Speaker 1: and that's only because if you're asking where the value is,
21:35
Speaker 1: I would rather take the Rockets with a better number,
21:37
Speaker 1: with the schedule, with the upside, just with the variants
21:42
Speaker 1: of not really knowing exactly what you're going to get,
21:44
Speaker 1: but trusting that. I mean, this guy was a hell
21:46
Speaker 1: of coach at a different level. He comes into the
21:51
Speaker 1: MAC team that has the most money outside of Miami,
21:53
Speaker 1: and maybe has more money than Miami. You know, even
21:58
Speaker 1: though Western Michigan is the for football pick betting wise,
22:03
Speaker 1: I kind of like Toledo here betting angles. Now, if
22:06
Speaker 1: this conference hits the way I think it does, this
22:08
Speaker 1: is the way that my money is going to go.
22:11
Speaker 1: If you've got to pick a title winner, I think
22:16
Speaker 1: Western Michigan wins the title. But this the MAC, it's crazy.
22:19
Speaker 1: So my best conference future here is going to be
22:22
Speaker 1: Toledo at plus four to forty. My best long shot
22:25
Speaker 1: is going to be Eastern Michigan at plus fourteen hundred.
22:29
Speaker 1: Second tier title value. If you're looking for somebody around there.
22:31
Speaker 1: Central Michigan at plus seven fifty because that triple you know,
22:35
Speaker 1: I'm a fan of what they're doing there, the best schedule,
22:39
Speaker 1: the best defensive path, but all that Ohio at plus
22:43
Speaker 1: seven ten there as far as best win totals, I
22:47
Speaker 1: like Central Michigan over six and a half at plus
22:49
Speaker 1: one fifteen. Western Michigan over seven and a half at
22:53
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen is also live. If they're gonna be
22:56
Speaker 1: my champion, that just makes sense to me. The Central
23:01
Speaker 1: Michigan over six and a half, that's I put on
23:05
Speaker 1: here the cleanest plus money win total on the board,
23:08
Speaker 1: that triple option in the MAC, especially the second year
23:12
Speaker 1: in like I'm a fan. I'm a big time fan
23:17
Speaker 1: of that. Akron over four and a half at minus
23:19
Speaker 1: one oh five. It kind of interesting spot there because
23:24
Speaker 1: I like Morehead, I like what they're doing there. Not
23:29
Speaker 1: a lot of talent, and but that's a difficult schedule
23:32
Speaker 1: to get over four and a half, but I think
23:34
Speaker 1: that they could get there. Bowling Green over four and
23:36
Speaker 1: a half that minus won fifty two is pretty expensive,
23:40
Speaker 1: but the schedule and the defense do support that. Ohio
23:43
Speaker 1: over six and a half, you know, easiest league schedule,
23:47
Speaker 1: for sure, and then Eastern Michigan over five and a half.
23:51
Speaker 1: I like the future more at plus fourteen hundred, but
23:57
Speaker 1: over five and a half, I mean, Creighton has made
23:59
Speaker 1: a lot of bowl games, he's gotten to six wins
24:02
Speaker 1: a lot, they got a lot back, they got noa
24:05
Speaker 1: chemic quarterback. I kind of like what they're doing there.
24:08
Speaker 1: As far as the best fade, I've already talked about
24:09
Speaker 1: Kent State under three and a half at minus one ten.
24:12
Speaker 1: Tough schedule, close game regression, and it's the roster is
24:16
Speaker 1: still really thin even by max standards. Like so that's
24:21
Speaker 1: that's why I like fading this number. As far as
24:25
Speaker 1: my final takes here, my surprise team, the one that's
24:29
Speaker 1: nobody that nobody's talking about. Enough, we just mentioned them,
24:33
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan plus fourteen hundred, continuity, the quarterback, you got
24:37
Speaker 1: a manageable conference path. It's exactly the kind of profile
24:40
Speaker 1: that can overachieve in the league. And then my favorite
24:43
Speaker 1: fade was king State over three and a half. Not
24:45
Speaker 1: because Kent is dead, they're not. They are improved, but
24:48
Speaker 1: the market gives us under three and a half at
24:51
Speaker 1: minus one ten, and with that schedule, like I would,
24:57
Speaker 1: I would rather bet against a four plus win season.
25:00
Speaker 1: The big picture here, the MAC market is telling you
25:03
Speaker 1: there's three favorites, and we talked about those, Western Michigan, Miami,
25:06
Speaker 1: and Toledo. The value is hiding just underneath them. Toledo,
25:10
Speaker 1: of course the best upside play plus four forty. Central
25:13
Speaker 1: Michigan over six and a half at plus one fifteen,
25:16
Speaker 1: that's my favorite win total. Eastern Michigan plus fourteen hundred
25:19
Speaker 1: is the long shot that makes the most sense. You know,
25:22
Speaker 1: Kent State under three and a half I already talked
25:24
Speaker 1: about that is my favorite fade. Yeah, this is gonna
25:32
Speaker 1: be a weird year for this conference. I think every
25:34
Speaker 1: year is, but this one's certainly going to be interesting.
25:39
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25:55
Speaker 1: Conference to USA is the league where ten losses can
25:58
Speaker 1: become ten wins and ten wins can become ten losses.
26:02
Speaker 1: And that is not me being dramatic that it literally
26:05
Speaker 1: took happened last season, right Kennessas State went from ten
26:07
Speaker 1: losses to ten wins, they won the league. Sam Houston
26:11
Speaker 1: did the complete opposite. They lost K. C. Keeler, and
26:14
Speaker 1: of course Filongo comes in and that thing just bottoms out.
26:19
Speaker 1: And that is the whole Conference USA experience. It's not
26:22
Speaker 1: the strongest group of five league nationally and that well
26:25
Speaker 1: G six now, but it's you know, Western Kentucky is
26:30
Speaker 1: the top projected team by ESPN's SP plus. They're still
26:34
Speaker 1: sitting at wet number eighty six nationally. So if you're
26:38
Speaker 1: looking for some you know, potential playoff team or whatever,
26:42
Speaker 1: I don't think this is going to be the league
26:44
Speaker 1: for that. Liberty did make the New Year six not
26:48
Speaker 1: that long ago, but I still think this is This
26:52
Speaker 1: is the Chaos conference. Right. Half of cusa's league games
26:56
Speaker 1: finished within one score last year. That's a third straight
26:58
Speaker 1: season where at least forty five percent of conference games
27:01
Speaker 1: were one score games. And that means every Wednesday Night,
27:05
Speaker 1: every weird travel spot, every quarterback injury, every fourth time,
27:10
Speaker 1: all that stuff. It matters. The big question for me
27:14
Speaker 1: is Liberty last year went four and eight with Jamie Chadwell,
27:19
Speaker 1: was that collapse just like a one year blip, like
27:23
Speaker 1: due to health and a weird staff, or did Conference
27:27
Speaker 1: USA catch up to the flames because Liberty has got
27:30
Speaker 1: the easiest path this year. Western Kentucky, of course, is
27:33
Speaker 1: the most reliable program. They got the top rating in
27:36
Speaker 1: SP plus. Jacksonville State just keeps winning like you switched
27:40
Speaker 1: over to Charles Kelly from Rich Royd and it don't
27:42
Speaker 1: even matter. They'd still run the ball. Kennesaw is the
27:45
Speaker 1: defending champion. Delaware, I think, is the sleeper that they've
27:49
Speaker 1: got the most returning production. They've got the coaching staff,
27:52
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. The league is not clean,
27:55
Speaker 1: but this league is very watchable. Now, let's talk about
27:59
Speaker 1: the identity of Conference USA in twenty twenty six, and
28:03
Speaker 1: I've got the word up there on the graphic volatility,
28:07
Speaker 1: like it's a realignment survivor league. Right, Louisiana Tech and
28:11
Speaker 1: UTEP are both gone. The league is settled into a
28:14
Speaker 1: ten team format. It's still built around the same stuff
28:17
Speaker 1: former FCS programs. Transfer heavy rosters, close games, and teams
28:22
Speaker 1: that can swing wildly year to year like CUSA is
28:26
Speaker 1: not deep nationally, but it's hard to project because roster
28:29
Speaker 1: stability is just not even a thing in this league.
28:34
Speaker 1: You got Liberty trying to bounce back after just a
28:36
Speaker 1: disaster season. Western Kentucky trying to finally turn consistent eight
28:42
Speaker 1: to nine win seasons into a conference title. They have
28:44
Speaker 1: not been able to do that. Jacksonville State is trying
28:46
Speaker 1: to prove that, you know, this three year run that
28:49
Speaker 1: they've been on is not a fluke. Kennesaw is trying
28:52
Speaker 1: to repeat after just a ridiculous, magical jump that they
28:56
Speaker 1: made last year. Delaware trying to use their quarterback experience
29:01
Speaker 1: and the returning production to kind of crash the race.
29:03
Speaker 1: The middle of this conference is where things get weird.
29:07
Speaker 1: And it's not the middle so much as you've got
29:10
Speaker 1: five contenders in a team team league, like you got
29:13
Speaker 1: the top in the bottom basically, But if IU, New
29:16
Speaker 1: Mexico State, Missouri State, Middle Tennessee, and Sam Houston, all
29:20
Speaker 1: of them have flaws. All of them have at least
29:23
Speaker 1: one thing that could really make them annoying. So the
29:26
Speaker 1: big picture to me is this like conference you go today,
29:29
Speaker 1: is not about finding the perfect team. I think it's
29:32
Speaker 1: about finding the least fragile team. Now, the biggest changes
29:36
Speaker 1: in this league are not just realignment. It's roster turn
29:40
Speaker 1: like Liberty is trying to reset after going four to eight.
29:42
Speaker 1: Newland Isaac is the new offensive coordinator. He was promoted
29:45
Speaker 1: from running backs coach Seawan Quinn comes in as defensive
29:48
Speaker 1: coordinator after being at Virginia Tech. Jamie Chadwell is still
29:52
Speaker 1: the reason to believe. But this is not just run
29:55
Speaker 1: it back and pretend last year didn't happen. Right, Western
29:59
Speaker 1: Kentucky most reliable program. Even the Hilltoppers have got some
30:03
Speaker 1: major turnover WKU. They returned the lowest production in the
30:07
Speaker 1: league at thirty two percent. That includes huge questions on
30:10
Speaker 1: the offensive line and at the skills spots. Jacksonville State
30:13
Speaker 1: lost their offensive coordinator, Clinton Triggett, and Taylor did a
30:17
Speaker 1: Taylor house Right takes over. The bigger issue is replacing
30:21
Speaker 1: Cam Cook in two All conference guards. Caden Crill. He's back,
30:24
Speaker 1: but you don't want him to have to be the
30:27
Speaker 1: entire offense right. Kennesaw State is replacing nine offensive starters
30:31
Speaker 1: and their quarterback of Maury Odum. That's the defending champ
30:35
Speaker 1: with and they've got the hardest CUSA schedule this year.
30:38
Speaker 1: They're trying to rebuild this offense on the fly. Missouri
30:41
Speaker 1: State has a new head coach in Casey Woods, who
30:43
Speaker 1: comes over from SMU after Ryan Beard left for Coastal Carolina.
30:48
Speaker 1: FIU is in year two under Willie Simmons, but the
30:50
Speaker 1: roster turnover is so big it kind of feels like
30:52
Speaker 1: another rebuild there. And Sam Houston's in year two under
30:56
Speaker 1: Phil long Ago and they just collapsed completely to two
30:58
Speaker 1: and ten. That roster did not fit what he wanted
31:00
Speaker 1: to do at all. So the conference overall is just
31:04
Speaker 1: loaded with change. The question is which team can handle
31:08
Speaker 1: it without you know, completely falling apart. All right, So
31:11
Speaker 1: let's get into the tiers because this is where CUSA
31:13
Speaker 1: really starts to take shape. Tier one is going to
31:16
Speaker 1: be your title contenders, and it's teams that I think
31:19
Speaker 1: can realistically play in the Conference USA Championship game. Now,
31:22
Speaker 1: I would have not had Knnisas State on this list
31:24
Speaker 1: last year. I'll be damned if I'm not gonna include
31:27
Speaker 1: them this year. Though. But Kinnesas State with Liberty, with
31:30
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, I think is the top
31:34
Speaker 1: tier in this conference right now. Liberty is my projected champion,
31:38
Speaker 1: Like they've got the easiest Conference USA schedule, at least
31:40
Speaker 1: according to my ratings. They've got the best rebound profile,
31:43
Speaker 1: they've got the best running back room, and Jamie Chadwell
31:46
Speaker 1: I still believe right he still gives them the highest
31:49
Speaker 1: offensive ceiling in this league. But it's not like this
31:53
Speaker 1: is an easy pick. That's why they're plus three hundred
31:55
Speaker 1: instead of, you know, a minus favorite like Miami would
31:58
Speaker 1: be in the ACC or something. The quarterback room has
32:00
Speaker 1: got questions like Ethan Vasco returns, but he missed spring
32:04
Speaker 1: after offseason surgery. Deshaun Purdy reportedly had a pretty strong spring.
32:09
Speaker 1: Jalen Henderson is in the mix there, and defensively, Liberty
32:11
Speaker 1: has got to rebuild the secondary after they lost their
32:14
Speaker 1: top nine in the secondary. So yeah, Liberty is the pick,
32:19
Speaker 1: but at plus three hundred, you're paying for that bounce
32:21
Speaker 1: back narrative. Western Kentucky is the safest pick here. I
32:26
Speaker 1: think Tyson Helton like, you keep producing. You know, these
32:30
Speaker 1: eight nine win seasons like a Western Kentucky had in
32:36
Speaker 1: one Conference USA since twenty sixteen, but they are in
32:39
Speaker 1: that race every single season. Rodney Tisdale was solid as
32:44
Speaker 1: a freshman there. Brock Glenn is still a factor of
32:47
Speaker 1: the program floor is still really real. The concern I
32:51
Speaker 1: think is production because I mean, you're only returning thirty
32:54
Speaker 1: two percent. Like, I don't care how good your program is.
33:00
Speaker 1: We have no idea what to expect out of these guys,
33:03
Speaker 1: no clue. I think they got the talent to compete,
33:05
Speaker 1: but who knows. Jacksonville State might be the best bet
33:10
Speaker 1: on the board, Like the game. Cocks have won nine
33:13
Speaker 1: wins in each of their first three FBS seasons. They
33:16
Speaker 1: have made it to back to back CUSA title games,
33:19
Speaker 1: won it last year. Caden crele is I mean, yeah,
33:25
Speaker 1: like they're they're awesome. They are awesome. Caden Crile is back.
33:29
Speaker 1: He combined for over fifteen hundred passing yards and almost
33:32
Speaker 1: twelve hundred rushing yards last year plus four ninety to
33:35
Speaker 1: win the league. That's a that's a best price profile
33:39
Speaker 1: combo for me. Obviously, there's questions here because losing Cam
33:46
Speaker 1: Cook and those guards, is that dragged down the running
33:48
Speaker 1: game enough to make Crill do too much? We're gonna
33:51
Speaker 1: find out. And then there's kannessas State, which the Owls
33:55
Speaker 1: are the defending champs. I think I said jack State
33:57
Speaker 1: won it last year. That yeah, the Owls are the
33:59
Speaker 1: defending chasms. We know Jerry mackin coach, there's defensive continuity,
34:05
Speaker 1: but they're replacing nine offensive starters, the quarterback who powered
34:08
Speaker 1: that whole breakout, and they've got the hardest league schedule.
34:11
Speaker 1: I'm not just gonna blindly buy these guys off last
34:14
Speaker 1: year's title, but I think I'd be dumb to not
34:17
Speaker 1: include them in a tier that could possibly win it.
34:19
Speaker 1: Right as far as Tier two, I've only got two
34:22
Speaker 1: teams there, and that's the dark horses, teams that could
34:25
Speaker 1: surprise if things break right. That's Delaware and Florida International.
34:30
Speaker 1: Delaware is the cleanest dark horse pick, Nick Minicoucci, I
34:38
Speaker 1: hope you said that right, y'all correct me in the comments.
34:39
Speaker 1: If I didn't threw for over thirty eight hundred yards
34:42
Speaker 1: or thirty six hundred yards last year, twenty three touchdowns,
34:45
Speaker 1: Lindy's their profile view him as one of the best
34:47
Speaker 1: players in this league. Delaware also ranked top twenty five
34:50
Speaker 1: nationally in returning production, and in a league that is
34:53
Speaker 1: full of roster turn I do think that could end
34:56
Speaker 1: up mattering. The problem is the schedule, right, third hardest
35:00
Speaker 1: conversas I schedule as far as my rankings go, and
35:04
Speaker 1: you got a pretty rough early stretch, right, you got Vanderbilt,
35:07
Speaker 1: Virginia and Liberty all early. But if you trust returning
35:13
Speaker 1: production and whatnot, like this would be your continuity pick,
35:15
Speaker 1: this will be your sleeper, right. FIU is the kind
35:19
Speaker 1: of dark horse here. Willie Simmons got FIU to its
35:21
Speaker 1: first winning season in seven years. JJ Cole brings talent
35:25
Speaker 1: back at quarterback. There's some interesting portal pieces at receiver
35:28
Speaker 1: and on defense. You're always going to have talent with
35:31
Speaker 1: where i FIU is located. But the losses that they
35:34
Speaker 1: took are huge. Keon Jenkins has gone, Owens has gone,
35:38
Speaker 1: Alex Perry, you got all five that are starting offensive
35:42
Speaker 1: linemen are gone. And that's why I think if IU
35:46
Speaker 1: is more of a watch them close. But it's not
35:52
Speaker 1: a team that I'm fully ready to buy on yet.
35:56
Speaker 1: As far as your Tier three, you know your Bowl
36:00
Speaker 1: bubble and spoiler teams. I don't expect these teams to
36:03
Speaker 1: really make a whole lot of noise this year in
36:05
Speaker 1: New Mexico State. They can be annoying because the defense
36:07
Speaker 1: has got some pieces, the offense has quarterback uncertainty, They've
36:10
Speaker 1: got questions about the running game, the offensive line is rebuilding,
36:14
Speaker 1: and they've got the second most difficult Conference USA schedule,
36:18
Speaker 1: Like I don't expect them to be bowling this year.
36:21
Speaker 1: Missouri State had a really good seven to six FBS debut,
36:25
Speaker 1: but now they got a new coach. Their old coach
36:29
Speaker 1: took over coast to Carolina. Like it's a heavily changed roster.
36:32
Speaker 1: Year two looks more like a reset than a clean
36:35
Speaker 1: step forward. Middletonnessee has got some quarterback spark right Roman Gagliano,
36:41
Speaker 1: and there's pieces there like Cameron Lacy, but the offensive
36:44
Speaker 1: line is brand new, the defensive depth is limited, and
36:48
Speaker 1: like I should we trust Derek Mason? Like I think,
36:53
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna need some more proof before I
36:54
Speaker 1: move them any higher than this. Like I just Derek
36:58
Speaker 1: Mason has not wow me in Murphy's Borough. And maybe
37:01
Speaker 1: he's building something that I just need to pay attention to,
37:06
Speaker 1: but I they haven't looked very good the last few years.
37:10
Speaker 1: Tier four, there's only one like Sam Houston, Like they
37:15
Speaker 1: went from ten wins to ten losses. Phil Longo is
37:18
Speaker 1: trying to rebuild, rebuild that talent base, and I do
37:23
Speaker 1: think like remember they were playing in like this weird
37:25
Speaker 1: soccer stadium or whatever. Last year they're back at Bower Stadium.
37:30
Speaker 1: I think that helps. But this roster feels more experimental
37:35
Speaker 1: than trustworthy. Like I knew basically none of these names,
37:40
Speaker 1: and they may look better physically, but I don't know
37:43
Speaker 1: that the jump is going to come immediately with this
37:45
Speaker 1: team as far as what the conference does well, the
37:48
Speaker 1: strengths and weaknesses. Right conference, he was a gives you
37:53
Speaker 1: number one on this list close game entertainment half the
37:55
Speaker 1: conference games for one score games last year. And you
37:58
Speaker 1: want to talk about volatility, I have betting opportunities, underdog value,
38:03
Speaker 1: a league where the title rates can change every week.
38:06
Speaker 1: That makes for fun midweek games. And the league's also
38:09
Speaker 1: got offensive coaches, right Jamie chadwill at Liberty. Have brought
38:12
Speaker 1: him up, Tyson Hilton at Western Kentucky, but he's kind
38:15
Speaker 1: of turned into more of everything. Coach Jacksonville State has
38:18
Speaker 1: got Cayden Creele back and a run game identity. Willie
38:22
Speaker 1: Simmons at FIU, Phil Longo's at Sam Houston. Yeah, there's
38:28
Speaker 1: offensive personalities here and the quarterback intrigue is better than
38:32
Speaker 1: you expect. I think Creole Minnicucci Vasco, Deshaun Purdy, Ricky Collins,
38:42
Speaker 1: JJ Cole, like you got a lot of interesting quarterback rooms.
38:47
Speaker 1: But the question I think is there's genuine weak spots
38:51
Speaker 1: in this conference that could really hurt the reputation, that
38:54
Speaker 1: could really hurt this league and at least what they
38:57
Speaker 1: look like overall. The defensive quality is not like ESPN's
39:01
Speaker 1: Defensive sp plus projections are mostly outside the top one
39:05
Speaker 1: hundred for these teams. And the roster turn is just everywhere.
39:09
Speaker 1: I mentioned Western Kentucky only having thirty two percent returning production,
39:13
Speaker 1: Kennesaw is low on that FIU, Missouri State, Sam Houston,
39:18
Speaker 1: like these are not my inner changes, and then the
39:23
Speaker 1: national ceiling is pretty limited, like Western Kentucky is the
39:27
Speaker 1: highest at eighty six. Like this is just a bottom
39:31
Speaker 1: wrong league. But they're still fun, and I've got it
39:34
Speaker 1: down at the bottom. They're fun because they're unstable. But
39:37
Speaker 1: it's also hard to trust any of these teams because
39:39
Speaker 1: they're unstable. The question for me is who are the
39:44
Speaker 1: best players? Now, I'm gonna give you a list of
39:47
Speaker 1: players that you need to know. I've already brought up
39:49
Speaker 1: quite a few of these. Caden Krill at Jacksonville, State
39:52
Speaker 1: is the most important quarterback in the league. I think
39:54
Speaker 1: he gives JSU a title game floor because of what
39:59
Speaker 1: he does as a runner and a pastor. Nick Minicucci
40:03
Speaker 1: at Delaware, like I mentioned, thirty six hundred passing yards,
40:06
Speaker 1: twenty three touchdowns, He's got a veteran profile. He's the
40:10
Speaker 1: reason Delaware is dangerous. Western Kentucky's got Rodney Tisdale really
40:16
Speaker 1: important stabilizer because Western Kentucky doesn't need him to be
40:20
Speaker 1: superman like. They just need him to stabilize the offense.
40:22
Speaker 1: While some of these new pieces, you know, settle in
40:26
Speaker 1: and then Liberty's quarterback room is kind of a swing factor.
40:28
Speaker 1: If Vasco's healthy and right, I think he probably wins
40:32
Speaker 1: the job. But Perdy could win the job and he
40:35
Speaker 1: could pop. Like Liberty probably has the best offense in
40:39
Speaker 1: the league, so long as one of those guys actually
40:41
Speaker 1: steps up. As far as the best offenses, Liberty has
40:44
Speaker 1: got the highest ceiling, like a Chadwell's run game system.
40:47
Speaker 1: In that running back room with Jalen Coleman and Cam Davis,
40:51
Speaker 1: Kanye Udo and others, I mean that they got the pieces,
40:54
Speaker 1: they're really really good after it. Western Kentucky has got
40:57
Speaker 1: the best program infrastructure, so they're relied Like Helton always
41:03
Speaker 1: brings in good offensive coordinators. They always click, like I
41:07
Speaker 1: trust them. Jacksonville State has got the best dual threat quarterback.
41:12
Speaker 1: I think that's fair. Delaware has got the best veteran
41:14
Speaker 1: passing game. So those like the four contenders for the
41:20
Speaker 1: title are the four best offenses. As far as the
41:22
Speaker 1: best defenses, Kennesaw State probably has the best defensive continuity
41:27
Speaker 1: among those contenders. Like Western Kentucky has got enough aggressive
41:30
Speaker 1: defensive structure that they can actually matter. Jacksonville State has
41:33
Speaker 1: a I mean they're aggressive. Charles Kelly loves that stuff.
41:37
Speaker 1: Turnover They are hunting for turnovers. Liberty has front six speed,
41:42
Speaker 1: but the secondary is you know, like I mentioned, they're
41:45
Speaker 1: missing nine of their top guys. FIU has some pretty
41:48
Speaker 1: interesting defensive transfer help, but you know that includes Kenton Simmons.
41:54
Speaker 1: But they need to prove the defense is actually fixed.
41:57
Speaker 1: So let's jump into the scheduling dynamic here. Let's talk
42:04
Speaker 1: about teams with brutal pats. First, we already mentioned some
42:07
Speaker 1: of this. Knnesaw State with the hardest CUSA schedule. That's
42:12
Speaker 1: obviously the biggest reason that you would fade the defending champion,
42:15
Speaker 1: along with the fact that they lost nine of their
42:18
Speaker 1: starters on offense transfer Portal Woo. New Mexico State has
42:23
Speaker 1: the second hardest that makes a bowl game even more difficult,
42:27
Speaker 1: not that they were going to be really good anyway,
42:28
Speaker 1: but still. Delaware has got the third hardest, which lowers
42:32
Speaker 1: the margin for error for my dark horse pick here
42:36
Speaker 1: because they've got a lot of returning production, but scheduled
42:40
Speaker 1: didn't set up well. Sam Houston and Missouri State, like
42:44
Speaker 1: both tough draws, both already rebuilding that they're in a
42:48
Speaker 1: bad spot teams with soft schedules. Liberty has the easiest
42:51
Speaker 1: Conference USA schedule, obviously the biggest reason why they're the
42:56
Speaker 1: champion pick. Jacksonville State has the second easiest league draw
43:00
Speaker 1: by WC East Hinderds Western Kentucky schedule is pretty manageable overall,
43:05
Speaker 1: though the November closing stretch is pretty nasty, which it
43:08
Speaker 1: has been for years now. At this point. If I
43:10
Speaker 1: was Tyson Hilton, I'd be so pissed off because they
43:12
Speaker 1: do this every year. FIU, They've also got a manageable path,
43:17
Speaker 1: and you know, if JJ Cole is good, I'm going
43:22
Speaker 1: to be interested in FIU. As far as games that
43:25
Speaker 1: could decide the conference, Jacksonville State at Kennessas State on
43:29
Speaker 1: October seventh, Liberty at Knnessas State on October twenty first,
43:33
Speaker 1: Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky on November fourteenth, Western Kentucky
43:39
Speaker 1: at Liberty on November twenty first, Kinnessas State at Western
43:44
Speaker 1: Kentucky on November twenty eighth. So lots of Western Kentucky,
43:48
Speaker 1: lots of Kninnessaus State in here, and multiple Jacksonville State
43:53
Speaker 1: and Liberty games. So the Western Kentucky stretch there where
43:59
Speaker 1: they have to play at Liberty and then they host
44:01
Speaker 1: Kennesas State and then I mean, my god, November fourteenth,
44:05
Speaker 1: they've got Jacksonville State as well, like they I mean,
44:10
Speaker 1: that's that stuff. So that's so brutal, Like that stretch
44:15
Speaker 1: for Western Kentucky's going to define whether or not they
44:16
Speaker 1: play in the championship game as well for a bunch
44:19
Speaker 1: of these other teams as well. All right, So as
44:31
Speaker 1: far as the championship race, I've got Liberty and I'm
44:36
Speaker 1: gonna take Jacksonville State. No, Jacksonville State is my best bet.
44:41
Speaker 1: As far as like the best odds, the best price,
44:44
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Liberty in Western Kentucky. It just feels
44:49
Speaker 1: like one of those years right where Tyson Hilton finally
44:52
Speaker 1: gets them there. Boy they go, aren't it? With that
44:55
Speaker 1: late stretch? Liberty is gonna get there because I think
44:59
Speaker 1: they've got the best path right the running game should
45:02
Speaker 1: travel Udo coming in. I think that's gonna be big.
45:05
Speaker 1: Chadwell's offense has got the clearest to bounce back case WKU.
45:11
Speaker 1: I believe in Hilton's program, they never fall apart even
45:16
Speaker 1: with the roster turnover. The hilltoppers of the team that
45:18
Speaker 1: I trust to be in the mix late. From a
45:22
Speaker 1: betting standpoint, the best number on the board is Jacksonville State. Like,
45:26
Speaker 1: if Cayden Krile stays healthy and that run game doesn't
45:28
Speaker 1: fall off too much without Cam Cook, they can win
45:31
Speaker 1: this league. I mean, they've been to the championship game
45:33
Speaker 1: two years in a row, but my projected champion is
45:38
Speaker 1: going to be Liberty. They got the best coach and
45:42
Speaker 1: offensive ceiling combination. They got the deepest running back room,
45:44
Speaker 1: they got the clearest path to the title game. But
45:49
Speaker 1: I still think my best bet is Jacksonville State at
45:52
Speaker 1: plus four ninety. Yeah, let's talk about betting angles. If
46:00
Speaker 1: this conference hits the way that I think it does,
46:02
Speaker 1: here's where the money is. Like the overvalued team, I'm
46:06
Speaker 1: fading Kennesaw State. Not because I think they're bad, because
46:09
Speaker 1: that defense is gonna be pretty good, but hardest schedule,
46:13
Speaker 1: new quarterback, nine offensive starters gone from last year. That's
46:17
Speaker 1: a fade profile Kennessaw under six and a half at
46:19
Speaker 1: minus one to ten. That's my favorite fade. Another team
46:22
Speaker 1: that I'm being careful with is Liberty. I'm picking them
46:27
Speaker 1: to win it all. That's who I think is going
46:29
Speaker 1: to win it. Plus three hundred in exactly the best bargain.
46:33
Speaker 1: The market already sees that bounce back, but I you
46:38
Speaker 1: know that eight and a half. I kind of like that.
46:41
Speaker 1: The undervalued team as far as the conference championship game
46:44
Speaker 1: goes is Jacksonville State game Cocks plus four ninety to
46:47
Speaker 1: win the league over seven and a half is a
46:50
Speaker 1: plus money proposition there. This program continues winning and they've
46:58
Speaker 1: already been to back to back title games. Kyden Crile like,
47:01
Speaker 1: I like this team as far as win totals. Jacksonville
47:06
Speaker 1: State over seven and a half at plus one oh five,
47:08
Speaker 1: that's my favorite. Liberty over eight and a half at
47:11
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen, that's live if they're really if they
47:14
Speaker 1: really bounce back and everything goes smoothly. I like that
47:18
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen there Western Kentucky. The over six and
47:22
Speaker 1: a half is that's a lot of juice at minus
47:25
Speaker 1: one eighty, but it is the strongest market signal that's
47:29
Speaker 1: out there. If I you under six and a half
47:31
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty four, it's a lot of offensive turnover.
47:34
Speaker 1: I'd be iffy with that one, because I mean, if
47:36
Speaker 1: JJ Cole hits, things could be awesome there. Sam Houston
47:41
Speaker 1: under three and a half in the Missouri State under
47:44
Speaker 1: four and a half rebuild profiles, it makes sense and
47:48
Speaker 1: you're not paying a ton of juice there minus one
47:50
Speaker 1: twenty five for Sam Houston minus won twenty four Missouri State. Now,
47:53
Speaker 1: my surprise team, the one that nobody's talking about enough
47:56
Speaker 1: is Delaware. Like we've we mentioned them a few times
48:00
Speaker 1: on the pod here Nick Minicucci. Top tier returning production,
48:03
Speaker 1: they've got strong continuity, and it's a league where there's
48:08
Speaker 1: not a lot of stability anywhere else in the conference.
48:11
Speaker 1: The schedule is tough, but Delaware I think is live
48:15
Speaker 1: as far as my disappointment pick. We talked about my
48:17
Speaker 1: favorite fade there, Kennesaull State. Again. I don't think they're
48:20
Speaker 1: going to be bad. I just think the market has
48:23
Speaker 1: to be careful treating last year like the new baseline,
48:26
Speaker 1: because that was a special, just ridiculous jump up, and
48:32
Speaker 1: repeating it with a new offense and the hardest schedule.
48:34
Speaker 1: That's gonna be difficult. This is the kind of conference
48:41
Speaker 1: where when you hit with the right quarterback, things can
48:44
Speaker 1: look a lot easier than they really are. And Kennesaw
48:48
Speaker 1: absolutely did that and had a bunch of close games
48:51
Speaker 1: and whatnot like that. Yeah, Odam was great. The big
48:55
Speaker 1: picture here is Conference USA is just the chaos league.
48:58
Speaker 1: Right for me, liber what he's to pick. Jacksonville State
49:01
Speaker 1: is the value Western Kentucky is the safe program, Delaware
49:05
Speaker 1: is your sleeper, and kennesaws State is the faith And
49:09
Speaker 1: this entire league can just flip on one midweek game
49:13
Speaker 1: like that's that's the USA. It's not clean, it's not elite,
49:18
Speaker 1: but it's built for madness. What extra Winning cures everything
49:22
Speaker 1: content and a way to support the show directly head
49:25
Speaker 1: over to buy me a coffee dot com slash Winning
49:27
Speaker 1: Cures and become part of the community today. The Mountain
49:32
Speaker 1: West lost the brands, but it did not lose the football,
49:35
Speaker 1: and that is I think the big thing that's heading
49:37
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six for this conference. Because yeah, Boise
49:41
Speaker 1: State's gone, San Diego State is gone, Fresno State, Utah State,
49:44
Speaker 1: Colorado State, the states are gone. The old Mountain West
49:48
Speaker 1: power structure has been completely ripped apart. But this league
49:52
Speaker 1: game did right, Like what we got now is a
49:55
Speaker 1: survival league that's trying to create a new identity, and
49:58
Speaker 1: they got enough good football piece to really be interesting. Right.
50:03
Speaker 1: UNOV trying to become the new Boys. I think New
50:05
Speaker 1: Mexico is trying to prove last year was not just
50:08
Speaker 1: a cute one year story. North Dakota State shows up
50:11
Speaker 1: from the FCS as a monster program. They're trying to
50:14
Speaker 1: skip the line. Right. Air Force looks like a bounce
50:17
Speaker 1: back team. Certainly played better towards the end of the
50:20
Speaker 1: last season. Hawaii has got the quarterback who can just
50:24
Speaker 1: I mean, they can make the whole league weird. So
50:27
Speaker 1: the question is not is it the old Mountain West,
50:29
Speaker 1: because it is certainly not. The question is who becomes
50:33
Speaker 1: the new face of this conference? Like is it gonna
50:36
Speaker 1: be un l V with Dan Mullen and Jackson Arnold.
50:38
Speaker 1: Is it New Mexico with Jason Eck and Jack Lane?
50:41
Speaker 1: And uh, the most continuity in the league is it
50:46
Speaker 1: air Force if Leam Zarka, like if he really has
50:50
Speaker 1: fixed this offense Hawaii, if Michael or micah Alojado, if
50:56
Speaker 1: he stays healthy, like, yeah, they lost some names, but
50:59
Speaker 1: then his title race is gonna be legitimately interesting. So
51:02
Speaker 1: the MWC this year is a reloaded survival league Nationally,
51:07
Speaker 1: Casual fans are gonna look at it as this is
51:11
Speaker 1: the Mountain West after everybody left, And I get that right,
51:14
Speaker 1: When all those programs leave, the perception changes immediately. But
51:19
Speaker 1: I think the on field product may be better than
51:21
Speaker 1: people realize. Like ESPN framed, this league is potentially the
51:26
Speaker 1: second best league in the new group of six, and
51:28
Speaker 1: that's behind the rebuilt PAC twelve. When you look at
51:32
Speaker 1: the top, there is legitimate intrigue. Great UNLV has got
51:35
Speaker 1: the highest ceiling. New Mexico has got the best stability.
51:39
Speaker 1: I mean, what Jason Egg did with that program last
51:41
Speaker 1: year was just outrageous. North Dakota State they've got that
51:44
Speaker 1: whole dynasty from the FCS profile going on air force.
51:49
Speaker 1: I mean, of course, if you've been watching the show
51:53
Speaker 1: for any amount of time, you know I'm gonna trust
51:54
Speaker 1: Troy Calhoun. So I think they're gonna improve this year.
51:58
Speaker 1: Hawaii has got the best quarterback ceiling. I mean we're
52:00
Speaker 1: in multiple years into the Timmy Chang era and they
52:06
Speaker 1: I mean, they look pretty good in spots last year.
52:08
Speaker 1: The issue is the drop off after that. And you
52:11
Speaker 1: see the teams got listed here, Wyoming, Nevada, San Jose, State,
52:16
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois comes in from the mac Utub comes in
52:18
Speaker 1: from Conference USA. There are some bowl pads in that group,
52:23
Speaker 1: but there's also major offensive, defensive, and coaching questions. So
52:28
Speaker 1: the Mountain West identity to me is pretty clear of
52:30
Speaker 1: This is pretty top heavy. It's rebuilt, there's a lot
52:34
Speaker 1: of weird travel here. It's gonna be some odd times
52:37
Speaker 1: for games. There's real quarterback storylines, and the league. I
52:44
Speaker 1: think the league winner is going to have to survive
52:46
Speaker 1: a few brutal road spots this season. As far as
52:48
Speaker 1: the biggest changes this season, I think the biggest one
52:51
Speaker 1: is obvious. It's realignment. Right, the old Mountain West gone
52:54
Speaker 1: out of here. Boys in San Diego State, Fresno State,
52:57
Speaker 1: Utah State, Colorado State. All gone coming in are North
53:00
Speaker 1: Dakota State, Northern Illinois, and UTEP. It completely changes the
53:04
Speaker 1: league's geography, it changes their personality. UNLV in New Mexico
53:11
Speaker 1: are no longer side characters. These are frontline programs now,
53:14
Speaker 1: which is so weird to think about. Just a few
53:19
Speaker 1: short years ago those programs were disasters and now, I
53:27
Speaker 1: mean they've invested. They are the top of this conference.
53:30
Speaker 1: North Dakota State is a fascinating one because I mean,
53:33
Speaker 1: this isn't your normal FCS call up right. This is
53:36
Speaker 1: a program that won ten of the last fifteen FCS
53:39
Speaker 1: national titles. ESBN noted that North Dakota State would have
53:43
Speaker 1: graded like a top fifty FBS team by SP plus
53:46
Speaker 1: multiple times. So it's not like they're walking in with
53:49
Speaker 1: some This is not like Sacramento State going to the MAC.
53:53
Speaker 1: Like they are coming in they're expecting to matter immediately.
53:56
Speaker 1: They've got They're pushing for a waiver so that they
53:59
Speaker 1: can actually I don't know if they actually got that
54:02
Speaker 1: or not, we'll talk about it, but they're looking for
54:05
Speaker 1: a waiver so that they can actually win this conference.
54:10
Speaker 1: That's what they're looking for. Northern Illinois is a much
54:14
Speaker 1: stranger fit. They've got an interim coach, Hammick left for
54:19
Speaker 1: the NFL. They're trying to rebuild a defense while also
54:22
Speaker 1: adjusting to, you know, a pretty geographically awkward league. Utub
54:28
Speaker 1: comes in. They're still trying to find some traction under
54:30
Speaker 1: Scotty Walden, with an offense that just got picked apart
54:33
Speaker 1: and another defensive coordinator change there. And then of course
54:36
Speaker 1: you've got internal changes right U and LV is resting
54:38
Speaker 1: again like through the portal. Jackson Arnold comes in at
54:42
Speaker 1: the high upside quarterback. Didn't look great at Auburn, but
54:47
Speaker 1: he seems to fit a Dan Mullen quarterback role pretty well,
54:52
Speaker 1: so there's a lot of intrigue with that. But the
54:56
Speaker 1: Rebels lost a ton on defense. Seven of the top
54:58
Speaker 1: eight defensive linemen four of the top five d defensive
55:00
Speaker 1: backs are gone. But I mean they did restock. They
55:04
Speaker 1: This is one of the most well funded programs in
55:06
Speaker 1: this conference, if not the best. New Mexico is the opposite.
55:09
Speaker 1: The Lobos bring back the most production in the league.
55:11
Speaker 1: Air force looks fixed offensively, but the defensive front has
55:14
Speaker 1: got to be rebuilt and Hawaii. You know they got
55:18
Speaker 1: the quarterback, but you know, depth and defensive turnover, that's
55:23
Speaker 1: that's a big problem. It's a league where change is
55:26
Speaker 1: everywhere except for New Mexico, and that is why the
55:29
Speaker 1: Lobos are expected to matter this season. All right, So
55:34
Speaker 1: let's talk about tiers because this is where the mountain
55:37
Speaker 1: was really take shape. Tier one, that's your title contenders,
55:41
Speaker 1: teams I think can realistically play in the championship game
55:44
Speaker 1: for the MWC. And I've got New Mexico, UNLV air Force,
55:48
Speaker 1: Hawaii and North Dakota State. New Mexico is my projected
55:52
Speaker 1: champion here. Lobo's got the best continuity in the league.
55:55
Speaker 1: Jack lane Back at quarterback, uh for starting offensive linemaner back,
55:59
Speaker 1: which is insane. I don't know how they did that.
56:02
Speaker 1: Jackston Eck, he leads the defense. He's probably the best
56:05
Speaker 1: NFL profile. Jason Neck is the coach, and he's got
56:10
Speaker 1: the he's got some momentum, right, went nine to four
56:14
Speaker 1: last year. And both Lindy's and Phil Steele have picked
56:17
Speaker 1: New Mexico number one in this league. So it's not
56:19
Speaker 1: like this is some kind of cute story like everybody
56:22
Speaker 1: goes in with some expectations on this bunch. The question
56:26
Speaker 1: for New Mexico, I think is pass rush. They got
56:29
Speaker 1: to replace Keishawn, James Newby and Brent Carew. If the
56:32
Speaker 1: pass rush falls off, yeah, that ceiling gets a little shakier.
56:36
Speaker 1: But you know, in a alignment reset league, this team
56:42
Speaker 1: knows what their identity is and I kind of trust that,
56:45
Speaker 1: So that would be my pick there. UNLV has the
56:49
Speaker 1: They're the highest ceiling team. ESPN's got the they got
56:54
Speaker 1: the rebels, projected number one in the Mountain West. Dan
56:57
Speaker 1: Mullen gives them real offensive credibility. They're gonna be a
57:00
Speaker 1: to score with Jackson Arnold, Jackson Donald, you know, five star,
57:05
Speaker 1: big tools, big upside. There are negative play concerns, and
57:10
Speaker 1: if Mullin fixes him, U and LV can win the
57:12
Speaker 1: league and maybe be the best national story out of
57:14
Speaker 1: this conference. But the schedule is a problem right at Hawaii,
57:19
Speaker 1: at New Mexico, at air Force, like the defensive front
57:23
Speaker 1: is also a problem. And that's why I like UNLV
57:27
Speaker 1: less as a short favorite. Here. Air Force is my
57:32
Speaker 1: that's my value team. Plus five fifty. Phil Steel ranked
57:37
Speaker 1: air Force as the number two most improved team nationally
57:40
Speaker 1: and the biggest reason is Liam Zarka, right Espian. I
57:44
Speaker 1: saw that they noted he averaged thirty one points per
57:47
Speaker 1: game when Zarka played forty plus snaps. That is a
57:51
Speaker 1: huge deal because the offense just kind of fell apart
57:54
Speaker 1: there and they looked a lot better whenever he was
57:58
Speaker 1: in the concern for air force, I think it's the defense.
58:02
Speaker 1: That defensive front lost all of the top four and
58:05
Speaker 1: they've got the hardest Mountain West Conference schedule as far
58:07
Speaker 1: as my rankings go, the title path is kind of difficult.
58:12
Speaker 1: But at plus five point fifty Troy Calhoun with no Boise,
58:16
Speaker 1: no Fresno, you know, all that kind of stuff, Like,
58:18
Speaker 1: I think that's the best futures value. Hawaii, I think
58:22
Speaker 1: is the chaos team that's kind of your wild card
58:26
Speaker 1: or one of the wild cards. I guess. Michael Alohado
58:28
Speaker 1: threw for over thirty one hundred yards and twenty four
58:30
Speaker 1: touchdowns as a Richer freshman, and he wasn't even healthy
58:34
Speaker 1: all season. Like, if he is not limited physically, he
58:38
Speaker 1: might be the best quarterback in this league. Ashlock gives
58:41
Speaker 1: him a real weapon, and Hawaii's home field weirdness like
58:44
Speaker 1: that's always an advantage. The defense and their depth are
58:48
Speaker 1: some concerns here, but I mean every team in this
58:50
Speaker 1: conference is dealing with depth concerns. I think Hawaii can
58:55
Speaker 1: win this league, but I don't think it's the safest
58:57
Speaker 1: team week to week, especially with all that travel. Your
59:00
Speaker 1: real wild card here is gonna be North Kota State.
59:03
Speaker 1: They're not. I don't know if they're going to be
59:08
Speaker 1: approved or not. I don't think that there's even like
59:13
Speaker 1: a conference title future on them. I didn't see any
59:16
Speaker 1: odds for them, so this is more of like a
59:18
Speaker 1: power rating spoiler, I guess, than a future's play. But
59:21
Speaker 1: the wind total sits at eight and a half and
59:23
Speaker 1: it's heavy over Jews, so the books think they're for real,
59:29
Speaker 1: for real. I don't know if I necessarily believe that,
59:33
Speaker 1: because I mean, they lost some pieces too. But the
59:35
Speaker 1: concern is quarterback and then this FBS transition, right, Nathan
59:38
Speaker 1: Hayes is a fifthier senior, but he's a career backup
59:41
Speaker 1: and he's replacing Cole Payton. They've also got a new
59:44
Speaker 1: skill court, and they got road trips to some of
59:46
Speaker 1: these contenders. But North Akota State can absolutely be good
59:51
Speaker 1: right away, Like can they win the league? That depends
59:55
Speaker 1: on whether the offense has enough passing pop. I don't
59:58
Speaker 1: know if they do or not. But as far as
1:00:01
Speaker 1: tier two, you see him there. It's your dark horse spoilers,
1:00:05
Speaker 1: your bowl teams and whatnot. Wyoming, Nevada or Nevada. I
1:00:10
Speaker 1: guess you guys tell me in the comments. Is it
1:00:13
Speaker 1: Nevada or is it Nevada? Remember I'm in Mississippi, so
1:00:18
Speaker 1: so my accent might be a little different. Wyoming is
1:00:21
Speaker 1: pretty simple, right. If the offense gets fixed, they can
1:00:24
Speaker 1: make it to a bowl game. Christen Taylor comes in
1:00:25
Speaker 1: as the new offenseve coordinator. Defense usually gives Wyoming kind
1:00:29
Speaker 1: of a rock Fight identity. But when Craig Bowl left,
1:00:33
Speaker 1: I mean things got weird. Things got weird. The passing
1:00:37
Speaker 1: game has too clear, a very low bar with this
1:00:40
Speaker 1: team for them to be effective at all. Nevada has
1:00:44
Speaker 1: I think I said it right that time. Nevada has
1:00:46
Speaker 1: got defensive pieces, especially let's see Dylan love Barbera. You'll
1:00:54
Speaker 1: tell him if I'm right. Carter Jones has got experience
1:00:56
Speaker 1: a quarterback, The offense has got a show can actually score,
1:01:00
Speaker 1: and the schedule's tough like at the wolf Pack might
1:01:05
Speaker 1: be better than their record this year. Boy, I love
1:01:08
Speaker 1: their coach. I love the coach too for sure. San
1:01:11
Speaker 1: Jose State, that's this off schedule sleeper here. The Spartans
1:01:14
Speaker 1: have got the easiest conference schedule per My ratings, and
1:01:17
Speaker 1: Ken Dio Mozzalola is he's got a track record. The
1:01:20
Speaker 1: issue is is there any kind of proof here, like
1:01:24
Speaker 1: new quarterback, new defensive coordinator, not a whole lot of
1:01:27
Speaker 1: proven defensive production. Like it could work. I mean, it
1:01:32
Speaker 1: could absolutely work, but there's obvious questions here. And then
1:01:35
Speaker 1: Tier three it's your transition and your rebuilds and all that.
1:01:39
Speaker 1: Like Northern Illinois and UTEP, I don't expect a whole lot.
1:01:43
Speaker 1: Like Northern Illinois is in a weird spot, new league
1:01:46
Speaker 1: interim coach, rebuilt defense. You got a quarterback battle there,
1:01:49
Speaker 1: Telly Johnson Junior gives him a physical rushing identity. But
1:01:54
Speaker 1: I mean, I ain't trusting this team. And UTEP has
1:01:57
Speaker 1: got some interesting pieces. You got E. J. Coulson and
1:01:59
Speaker 1: a few desive players, but the offense was just gutted.
1:02:02
Speaker 1: Scotty Walden still needs to prove that this build is
1:02:05
Speaker 1: going somewhere. I had a whole lot of faith in
1:02:08
Speaker 1: this guy. And now he's swapping leagues in the middle.
1:02:11
Speaker 1: I don't know that this is what he signed up for,
1:02:13
Speaker 1: but first year in this conference, I'm not expecting great
1:02:19
Speaker 1: things as far as what this conference does well. The
1:02:22
Speaker 1: Mountain West has got real top five intrigue. Right. These
1:02:27
Speaker 1: are the top programs that all have different title arguments,
1:02:31
Speaker 1: and that's the ones we've been over, UNLV, New Mexico,
1:02:33
Speaker 1: air Force, Hawaii in North Kota State. It's gonna make
1:02:41
Speaker 1: this league a lot of fun. It's got quarterback storylines.
1:02:43
Speaker 1: Alojado might be the best QB in this conference. Jack
1:02:46
Speaker 1: Lane and New Mexico gives them stability. Liam zarka completely
1:02:49
Speaker 1: changed air Force. Jackson Arnold is the biggest boom er
1:02:53
Speaker 1: bus ceiling and it's a name that everybody knows. Nathan
1:02:55
Speaker 1: Hayes determines how quickly North Akota State can translate over
1:03:00
Speaker 1: and the coaching at the top is really strong. Dan Mullen,
1:03:03
Speaker 1: Jason Eck, who could or could not be Wisconsin's next
1:03:07
Speaker 1: coach if things don't go right up there. Tim Polasek
1:03:11
Speaker 1: and that's uh, you know, he had something to do
1:03:13
Speaker 1: with Wyoming as well, but he's at North Kota State
1:03:16
Speaker 1: doing good things Troy Calhoun. Of course, y'all know how
1:03:19
Speaker 1: much I love the Air Force coach Timmy Chang. These
1:03:22
Speaker 1: are real identities, right, These are programs with directions like
1:03:27
Speaker 1: I'm a fan of these guys. The concern is that
1:03:30
Speaker 1: there's actual, like legit weak spots in this conference. Right.
1:03:35
Speaker 1: The brand losses are are massive, Like the league can
1:03:38
Speaker 1: still be good, but when you don't have those old names,
1:03:42
Speaker 1: the champion probably needs a They probably need to go
1:03:46
Speaker 1: undefeated or eleven to one to get any kind of
1:03:48
Speaker 1: national respect. I don't know if any of them are
1:03:50
Speaker 1: good enough to do that. The second problem that the
1:03:53
Speaker 1: guy is defensive uncertainty. UNLV has got a ton of
1:03:56
Speaker 1: attritional on that side of the ball. Air Force has
1:03:58
Speaker 1: got to rebuild their front. I has major depth concerns,
1:04:02
Speaker 1: and I know everybody does, but why it's look pretty daunting.
1:04:06
Speaker 1: Wyoming lost. Wyoming lost a bunch on the defensive line,
1:04:10
Speaker 1: and San Jose State and UTEP are just completely resetting.
1:04:15
Speaker 1: The third is the bottom half offense, right, Wyoming, Nevada, Nevada,
1:04:23
Speaker 1: San Jose State, Northern Illinois, UTEP. Like if those offenses
1:04:28
Speaker 1: don't improve, like the league is gonna be super top heavy,
1:04:31
Speaker 1: and some of these games may not even be all
1:04:33
Speaker 1: that much fun. And that's what I project. I think
1:04:39
Speaker 1: it's gonna be pretty top heavy. As far as who
1:04:43
Speaker 1: the best players are like, I've already told you a
1:04:45
Speaker 1: bunch of these. Alohado I think is the headliner. What
1:04:50
Speaker 1: he did while not fully healthy last year was huge
1:04:53
Speaker 1: and if he takes another step, Hawaii is absolutely alive
1:04:56
Speaker 1: for everything in this conference. JACQ Lane and New Mexico.
1:05:00
Speaker 1: That gives the Lobos exactly what they need, some competence,
1:05:03
Speaker 1: some confidence there. Zarka at air Force probably the most
1:05:07
Speaker 1: important player in the league. He changes everything for that team.
1:05:11
Speaker 1: Jackson Arnold I think is the swing player. If he
1:05:15
Speaker 1: hits UNLV, he's got the highest ceiling because they they've
1:05:17
Speaker 1: got the most talent, but and they really need him
1:05:22
Speaker 1: to not have negative plays. Right. As far as the
1:05:25
Speaker 1: best offenses go, UNLV has got the highest ceiling. Hawaii
1:05:30
Speaker 1: has the most dangerous passing game. Air Force best rebound offense,
1:05:35
Speaker 1: you know, and that's if Zarka keeps it rolling. New
1:05:38
Speaker 1: Mexico I think has the safest balance structure with laying
1:05:41
Speaker 1: in that offensive line. North Dakota State they've got a
1:05:46
Speaker 1: they have a physical line of scrimmage identity, but I'm
1:05:53
Speaker 1: curious whether or not that's gonna continue or not. As
1:05:57
Speaker 1: far as best defenses, New Mexico best overall Jackson Eck
1:06:01
Speaker 1: and that returning structure, I think they're gonna be great.
1:06:03
Speaker 1: North Kota State should translate physically, We'll see Wyoming and
1:06:08
Speaker 1: Nevata can still make games pretty ugly. Hawaii's got some
1:06:11
Speaker 1: stars on defense, but again depth is an issue there
1:06:15
Speaker 1: and UNLV, I think is that the biggest defensive question
1:06:18
Speaker 1: because the defensive front has they've got to come together
1:06:25
Speaker 1: and it's got to come together fast, otherwise it could
1:06:28
Speaker 1: get really, really weird. But either way, as far as
1:06:34
Speaker 1: the schedule goes, so I'm gonna highlight some of these games,
1:06:40
Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about a few things here. As far
1:06:42
Speaker 1: as the teams that have the most brutal paths, air
1:06:46
Speaker 1: Force has got the hardest Mountain West Conference schedule, and
1:06:50
Speaker 1: I love the Improvement angle more than I love them
1:06:53
Speaker 1: as like a like my overall best championship pick. I
1:06:57
Speaker 1: think there's value with them to win the title, but bhell,
1:07:01
Speaker 1: that schedule makes it difficult. UNLV has got the second
1:07:04
Speaker 1: most difficult you got road trips at Hawaii, at air Force,
1:07:08
Speaker 1: at New Mexico. I mean that's that is an issue,
1:07:12
Speaker 1: that is a problem. Nevada has the third hardest, obviously
1:07:16
Speaker 1: that's gonna hurt them making a bowl game. New Mexico
1:07:19
Speaker 1: is the fourth and most difficult. It's more manageable than
1:07:22
Speaker 1: U and LV and air Force for sure, and then
1:07:25
Speaker 1: Hawaii is fifth. But home field weirdness is I think
1:07:27
Speaker 1: that can flip that a little bit. As far as
1:07:29
Speaker 1: the teams with the softest schedules, these are teams that
1:07:33
Speaker 1: are hoping. These are teams that are hoping to make
1:07:38
Speaker 1: it to a bowl game. San Jose State has got
1:07:41
Speaker 1: the easiest schedule. North Dakota State. Their average opponent draw
1:07:46
Speaker 1: looks manageable, but they travel to all four primary contenders,
1:07:50
Speaker 1: so that's complicated, but it makes the home games that
1:07:54
Speaker 1: much more winnable. Right, So the road placement is pretty brutal,
1:08:00
Speaker 1: but I mean playing all four of those on the road,
1:08:03
Speaker 1: that's tough, very very tough. Utap and Wyoming. They've also
1:08:07
Speaker 1: got more manageable pats if they can improve. As far
1:08:09
Speaker 1: as the games that could decide the whole league, UNLV
1:08:15
Speaker 1: at Hawaii on September fifth. I mean that's week one,
1:08:19
Speaker 1: and it's the week after UNLV hosts Memphis and week zero,
1:08:23
Speaker 1: that's tough for U and LV. Northakota State at UNLV
1:08:28
Speaker 1: on October tenth, UNLV at Air Force on October seventeenth,
1:08:32
Speaker 1: North Akota State at New Mexico on October twenty fourth,
1:08:36
Speaker 1: and UNLV at New Mexico on November fourteenth. And that
1:08:40
Speaker 1: last one might be the regular season title game. That
1:08:46
Speaker 1: one could be very interesting as far as the championship
1:08:48
Speaker 1: bris goes. I've got New Mexico and UNLV in the
1:08:50
Speaker 1: Mountain West Championship game. I think UNL. I think UNLV
1:08:54
Speaker 1: gets there because that ceiling is too high to ignore.
1:08:57
Speaker 1: Like even with this schedule, Mullen and Arnold give the
1:08:59
Speaker 1: Rebels enough firepower to be in the mix. I believe
1:09:03
Speaker 1: in Dan Mullen being able to fix Jackson Arnold. I
1:09:07
Speaker 1: think that he has been in really bad situations at
1:09:12
Speaker 1: Oklahoma and then Auburn. Last year was the dumpster fire
1:09:18
Speaker 1: of all dumpster fires. Now he's with Mullen with a
1:09:21
Speaker 1: lot of talent around him, playing against leicster competition. I'll
1:09:26
Speaker 1: buy into it. New Mexico I think gets to the
1:09:28
Speaker 1: tidle game, because I mean, this is the cleanest football
1:09:31
Speaker 1: team in the league. They got the quarterback, they get
1:09:33
Speaker 1: the line they got the linebacker, they got the coach,
1:09:36
Speaker 1: they got the continuity like and because of that, I'm
1:09:40
Speaker 1: gonna take New Mexico to win the conference. Like it's
1:09:44
Speaker 1: a league that just got completely rebuilt. I'm gonna trust
1:09:47
Speaker 1: the team that didn't have to completely reinvent themselves, like
1:09:50
Speaker 1: they might not have UNLV's raw sealing, but they've got
1:09:54
Speaker 1: the fewest what if questions right and the market has
1:09:59
Speaker 1: caught up. I mean, there's not a lot of value
1:10:01
Speaker 1: at this number in New Mexico's plus two twenty, But
1:10:03
Speaker 1: as a football pick, I do think it's the right
1:10:05
Speaker 1: side as far as betting angles. If the conference hits
1:10:08
Speaker 1: the way that I think it does, these are for me,
1:10:12
Speaker 1: this is where the money is overvalued. I'm I'm gonna
1:10:17
Speaker 1: be careful with you and OV. I like the Rebels.
1:10:20
Speaker 1: I think they can win the league. Early this offseason,
1:10:25
Speaker 1: I kind of like them at over eight and a half.
1:10:26
Speaker 1: But the more I study this, the more I look
1:10:28
Speaker 1: at the conference schedule, the more I yes, they can
1:10:33
Speaker 1: win the league, but at plus two forty. You're paying
1:10:35
Speaker 1: for that ceiling with the road schedule, with a defensive attrition.
1:10:38
Speaker 1: I don't like laying into the hype. I mean, you've
1:10:41
Speaker 1: got Memphis in that offseason a week before you have
1:10:44
Speaker 1: to go to Hawaii. They can start off oh to two,
1:10:48
Speaker 1: so that under eight and a half. Yeah, minus one
1:10:51
Speaker 1: fifty isn't the best. Let me take that back. It
1:10:55
Speaker 1: is the best price that's out there. It's a little
1:10:59
Speaker 1: jew but that's my favorite fade angle. If you're looking
1:11:03
Speaker 1: to fade somebody as far as undervalued air force the
1:11:07
Speaker 1: plus five fifty to win the league. I think that's
1:11:10
Speaker 1: the best value among the real contenders. The wind total
1:11:13
Speaker 1: market agrees that they're improved because the over six and
1:11:16
Speaker 1: a half is used it minus win sixty, but the
1:11:18
Speaker 1: title oddes are still long enough that it makes it intriguing.
1:11:24
Speaker 1: I'll say that Hawaii is They're the fun upside play
1:11:29
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred, Like if you watched them last year,
1:11:32
Speaker 1: especially against Stanford in that early season game. Early said
1:11:36
Speaker 1: the opening weekend week zero whatever it was Alohado Like,
1:11:40
Speaker 1: if he stays healthy and that defense is just passable,
1:11:43
Speaker 1: Hawaii is going to be fantastic. Absolutely fantastic as far
1:11:47
Speaker 1: as win totals. Air Force over six and a half,
1:11:51
Speaker 1: I like that one. Hawaii over seven and a half
1:11:53
Speaker 1: at plus money, that's a pretty aggressive upside play. San
1:11:57
Speaker 1: Jose State over four and a half is interesting because
1:12:00
Speaker 1: I mean, how are you not gonna trust Kennya Matolola
1:12:02
Speaker 1: to get things together right? And they've got the easiest
1:12:04
Speaker 1: conference schedule, So over four and a half, I like
1:12:07
Speaker 1: that one. Wyoming over five and a half. There, I'm
1:12:14
Speaker 1: I'm curious there. If I had to go away with
1:12:16
Speaker 1: Wyoming over five and a half, would be the play
1:12:20
Speaker 1: on the other side Nevada under four and a half
1:12:23
Speaker 1: and Utup under three and a half. That fits the
1:12:25
Speaker 1: offensive uncertainty and rebuild profiles. So that's the way that
1:12:29
Speaker 1: I would go with those. All right, So final takes.
1:12:33
Speaker 1: My surprise team is Air Force. The schedule is brutal,
1:12:38
Speaker 1: but if Zarka really fixed the offense, this isn't just
1:12:41
Speaker 1: a bowl team. This is the team that can absolutely
1:12:43
Speaker 1: win the whole thing. My disappointment pick is UNLV because
1:12:47
Speaker 1: the market treats them like an obvious favorite and they
1:12:50
Speaker 1: might be the most talented team, but again, that schedule,
1:12:54
Speaker 1: the defensive attrition that's not automatic. So to eight and
1:13:00
Speaker 1: a half and maybe not even making it to the
1:13:02
Speaker 1: title game could be interesting. As far as the big
1:13:05
Speaker 1: picture goes. New Mexico is the stability pick. UNLV is
1:13:11
Speaker 1: the ceiling pick. Air Force is the value pick. Hawaii
1:13:15
Speaker 1: is the quarterback chaos pick. North Dakota State is the
1:13:19
Speaker 1: wild card that nobody wants to have to deal with
1:13:21
Speaker 1: because they play a completely different way than most of
1:13:23
Speaker 1: everybody in this league. Air Force in North Dakota State,
1:13:26
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's actual real football is what that is.
1:13:32
Speaker 1: This league is very different now, but different doesn't mean
1:13:34
Speaker 1: that it's boring. All right. That's gonna do it for
1:13:37
Speaker 1: the MAC Conference USA and the Mountain West this week.
1:13:40
Speaker 1: Next week we got the American, the PAC twelve, and
1:13:44
Speaker 1: the Sunbelt. So if you hadn't already like the video,
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Speaker 1: subscribe to Winning Cures Everything, whether that is on the
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Speaker 1: podcast or on YouTube, and make sure to comment with
1:13:53
Speaker 1: your thoughts on all these different conferences, the picks, anything
1:13:56
Speaker 1: else you feel like talking about. Jump in there again.
1:13:59
Speaker 1: You guys know how much I love talking Bob with y'all,
1:14:01
Speaker 1: but I can't tell you how much I appreciate you guys,
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Speaker 1: we've got two different channels going right now. One is
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Speaker 1: our WC Eclipse channel. The other is of course Winning
1:14:10
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1:14:18
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Speaker 1: is keeping rolling as well. You guys already know about
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1:14:27
Speaker 1: Hope you're strapped in. Hope you're ready to rock and
1:14:29
Speaker 1: roll till next time. Take care of yourself, take care
1:14:32
Speaker 1: of each other. God bless college football and hopefully all
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